Global mortality estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR project: a modeling study

Preparation and characterization of mouse-derived monoclonal antibodies against the hemagglutinin of the H1N1 influenza virus

H1N1 influenza virus is a significant global public health concern. Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) targeting specific viral proteins such as hemagglutinin (HA) have become an important therapeutic strategy, offering highly specific targeting to block viral transmission and infection. This study focused on the development of mAbs targeting HA of the A/Victoria/2570/2019 (H1N1pdm09, VIC-19) strain by utilizing hybridoma technology to produce two mAbs with high binding capacity. Notably, mAb 2B2 has demonstrated a strong affinity for HA proteins in recent H1N1 influenza vaccine strains. In vitro assessments showed that both mAbs exhibited broad-spectrum hemagglutination inhibition and potent neutralizing effects against various vaccine strains of H1N1pdm09 viruses. 2B2 was also effective in animal models, offering both preventive and therapeutic protection against infections caused by recent H1N1 strains, highlighting its potential for clinical application. By individually co-cultivating each of the aforementioned mAbs with the virus in chicken embryos, four amino acid substitution sites in HA (H138Q, G140R, A141E/V, and D187E) were identified in escape mutants, three in the antigenic site Ca2, and one in Sb. The identification of such mutations is pivotal, as it compels further investigation into how these alterations could undermine the binding efficacy and neutralization capacity of antibodies, thereby impacting the design and optimization of mAb therapies and influenza vaccines. This research highlights the necessity for continuous exploration into the dynamic interaction between viral evolution and antibody response, which is vital for the formulation of robust therapeutic and preventive strategies against influenza.

Factors associated with COVID-19 among hospitalized patients with severe acute respiratory infections in Serbia, 2022-2023: A test negative case-control study

Severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) are estimated to be the cause of death in about 19% of all children younger than 5 years globally. The outbreak of coronaviral disease (COVID-19) caused by SARS-CoV-2, increased considerably the burden of SARI worldwide. We used data from a vaccine effectiveness study to identify the factors associated with SARS CoV-2 infection among hospitalized SARI patients. We recruited SARI patients at 3 hospitals in Serbia from 7 April 2022-1 May 2023. We collected demographic and clinical data from patients using a structured questionnaire, and all SARI patients were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR. We conducted an unmatched test negative case-control study. SARS-CoV-2 infected SARI patients were considered cases, while SARS CoV-2 negative SARI patients were controls. We conducted bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis in order to identify variables associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. We included 110 SARI patients: 74 were cases and 36 controls. We identified 5 factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 positivity, age (OR  =  1.04; 95% CI  =  1.01-1.07), having received primary COVID-19 vaccine series (OR  =  0.28; 95% CI  =  0.09-0.88), current smoking (OR  =  8.64; 95% CI  =  2.43-30.72), previous SARS CoV-2 infection (OR  =  3.48; 95% CI  =  1.50-8.11) and number of days before seeking medical help (OR  =  0.81; 95% CI  =  0.64-1.02). In Serbia during a period of Omicron circulation, we found that older age, unvaccinated, hospitalized SARI patients, previously infected with SARS CoV-2 virus and those who smoked, were more likely to be SARS-CoV-2-positive; these patient populations should be prioritized for COVID vaccination.

Structural dynamics of influenza A (H1N1) hemagglutinin protein: a comparative study of Indian (2018) isolate with its evolutionary neighbor, Californian (2009) strain

This work highlights the structure and dynamics of two trimeric HA proteins of the H1N1 virus from different origins, the pandemic Californian (HACal) and its closest Indian neighbor (HAInd), reported in 2009 and 2018, respectively. Because of mutation, HAInd acquires new N-glycosylation and epitope binding sites along with mutations at RBD, which might trigger an altered viral-host interaction mechanism. Molecular dynamics simulations performed on HA trimers for a period of 250 ns reveal the highly dynamic nature of HACal trimers inherited by the flexibility of HA monomers. In the trimer, the dynamics of one monomer are more pronounced compared to others, and the enhanced dynamics of RBD especially gain attention as they plays a key role during fusion. Conversely, the mutant HAInd trimer effectively establishes more H-bond interactions, and accordingly, the trimer undergoes more stabilized dynamics with a relatively lower amplitude of RBD dynamics, as endorsed by the reduced RMSD, Rg, and SASA variations. The cooperative and anti-cooperative motions dissected for the subdomains of both strains also reveal a prominent anticorrelative motion of RBD against other subdomains. In agreement, the free energy landscape of stable HAInd is also characterized by a single lowest wide energy basin instead of the two minimum energy basins of the HACal trimer. In essence, the mutant HAInd acquires a highly stable conformation with novel functional features, which calls for (i) further investigation on the emerging mutation-mediated variation in viral-host binding mechanism and (ii) the need for further design of site-specific potential inhibitors to face future challenges.Communicated by Ramaswamy H. Sarma.

Reduction of acute respiratory infections in day-care by non-pharmaceutical interventions: a narrative review

Objective

Children who start in day-care have 2-4 times as many respiratory infections compared to children who are cared for at home, and day-care staff are among the employees with the highest absenteeism. The extensive new knowledge that has been generated in the COVID-19 era should be used in the prevention measures we prioritize. The purpose of this narrative review is to answer the questions: Which respiratory viruses are the most significant in day-care centers and similar indoor environments? What do we know about the transmission route of these viruses? What evidence is there for the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical prevention measures?

Design

Literature searches with different terms related to respiratory infections in humans, mitigation strategies, viral transmission mechanisms, and with special focus on day-care, kindergarten or child nurseries, were conducted in PubMed database and Web of Science. Searches with each of the main viruses in combination with transmission, infectivity, and infectious spread were conducted separately supplemented through the references of articles that were retrieved.

Results

Five viruses were found to be responsible for ≈95% of respiratory infections: rhinovirus, (RV), influenza virus (IV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), coronavirus (CoV), and adenovirus (AdV). Novel research, emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic, suggests that most respiratory viruses are primarily transmitted in an airborne manner carried by aerosols (microdroplets).

Conclusion

Since airborne transmission is dominant for the most common respiratory viruses, the most important preventive measures consist of better indoor air quality that reduces viral concentrations and viability by appropriate ventilation strategies. Furthermore, control of the relative humidity and temperature, which ensures optimal respiratory functionality and, together with low resident density (or mask use) and increased time outdoors, can reduce the occurrence of respiratory infections.

What can we learn from historical pandemics? A systematic review of the literature

What are the insights from historical pandemics for policymaking today? We carry out a systematic review of the literature on the impact of pandemics that occurred since the Industrial Revolution and prior to Covid-19. Our literature searches were conducted between June 2020 and September 2023, with the final review encompassing 169 research papers selected for their relevance to understanding either the demographic or economic impact of pandemics. We include literature from across disciplines to maximise our knowledge base, finding many relevant articles in journals which would not normally be on the radar of social scientists. Our review identifies two gaps in the literature: (1) the need to study pandemics and their effects more collectively rather than looking at them in isolation; and (2) the need for more study of pandemics besides 1918 Spanish Influenza, especially milder pandemic episodes. These gaps are a consequence of academics working in silos, failing to draw on the skills and knowledge offered by other disciplines. Synthesising existing knowledge on pandemics in one place provides a basis upon which to identify the lessons in preparing for future catastrophic disease events.

An alternative strategy to increasing influenza virus replication for vaccine production in chicken embryo fibroblast (DF-1) cells by inhibiting interferon alpha and beta using peptide-conjugated phosphorodiamidate morpholino oligomers

Introduction. Influenza is a global health issue causing substantial health and economic burdens on affected populations. Routine, annual vaccination for influenza virus is recommended for all persons older than 6 months of age. The propagation of the influenza virus for vaccine production is predominantly through embryonated chicken eggs.Hypothesis/Gap Statement. Many challenges face the propagation of the virus, including but not limited to low yields and lengthy production times. The development of a method to increase vaccine production in eggs or cell lines by suppressing cellular gene expression would be helpful to overcome some of the challenges facing influenza vaccine production.Aims. This study aimed to increase influenza virus titres by using a peptide-conjugated phosphorodiamidate morpholino oligomer (PPMO), an antisense molecule, to suppress protein expression of the host genes interferon alpha (IFN-α) and interferon beta (IFN-β) in chicken embryo fibroblast (DF-1) cells.Methods. The toxicity of PPMOs was evaluated by cytotoxicity assays, and their specificity to inhibit IFN-α and IFN-β proteins was measured by ELISA. We evaluated the potential of anti-IFN-α and anti-IFN-β PPMOs to reduce the antiviral proteins in influenza virus-infected DF-1 cells and compared the virus titres to untreated controls, nonsense-PPMO and JAK/STAT inhibitors. The effects of complementation and reconstitution of IFN-α and IFN-β proteins in PPMO-treated-infected cells were evaluated, and the virus titres were compared between treatment groups.Results. Suppression of IFN-α by PPMO resulted in significantly reduced levels of IFN-α protein in treated wells, as measured by ELISA and was shown to not have any cytotoxicity to DF-1 cells at the effective concentrations tested. Treatment of the self-directing PPMOs increased the ability of the influenza virus to replicate in DF-1 cells. Over a 2-log10 increase in viral production was observed in anti-IFN-α and IFN-β PPMO-treated wells compared to those of untreated controls at the initial viral input of 0.1 multiplicity of infection. The data from complementation and reconstitution of IFN-α and IFN-β proteins in PPMO-treated-infected cells was about 82 and 97% compared to the combined PPMO-treated but uncomplemented group and untreated group, respectively. There was a 0.5-log10 increase in virus titre when treated with anti-IFN-α and IFN-β PPMO compared to virus titre when treated with JAK/STAT inhibitors.Conclusions. This study emphasizes the utility of PPMO in allowing cell cultures to produce increased levels of influenza for vaccine production or alternatively, as a screening tool to cheaply test targets prior to the development of permanent knockouts of host gene expression.

Systematic review of influenza vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed influenza among older adults living in aged care facilities

We estimated the effectiveness of influenza vaccines in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza among older adults in aged care. Electronic database searches were conducted using search terms, and studies were selected as per the selection criteria. Fourteen studies were included for final review. The studies exhibited considerable variation in reported vaccine effectiveness (VE) across different seasons. Among the observational studies, VE ranged from 7.2% to 89.8% against laboratory-confirmed influenza across different vaccines. Randomized clinical trials demonstrated a 17% reduction in infection rates with the adjuvanted trivalent vaccine. The limitations include the small number of included studies conducted in different countries or regions, varied seasons, variations in diagnostic testing methods, a focus on the A/H3N2 strain, and few studies available on the effectiveness of enhanced influenza vaccines in aged care settings. Despite challenges associated with achieving optimal protection, the studies showed the benefits of influenza vaccination in the elderly residents.

Burden of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in the European Union: estimation of RSV-associated hospitalizations in children under 5 years

BACKGROUND

No overall estimate of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated hospitalizations in children aged under 5 years has been published for the European Union (EU). We aimed to estimate the RSV hospitalization burden in children aged under 5 years in EU countries and Norway, by age group.

METHODS

We collated national RSV-associated hospitalization estimates calculated using linear regression models via the RESCEU project for Denmark, England, Finland, Norway, the Netherlands, and Scotland, 2006-2018. Additional estimates were obtained from a systematic review. Using multiple imputation and nearest neighbor matching methods, we estimated overall RSV-associated hospitalizations and rates in the EU.

RESULTS

Additional estimates for 2 countries (France and Spain) were found in the literature. In the EU, an average of 245 244 (95% confidence interval [CI], 224 688-265 799) yearly hospital admissions with a respiratory infection per year were associated with RSV in children aged under 5 years, with most cases occurring among children aged under 1 year (75%). Infants aged under 2 months represented the most affected group (71.6 per 1000 children; 95% CI, 66.6-76.6).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings will help support decisions regarding prevention efforts and represent an important benchmark to understand changes in the RSV burden following the introduction of RSV immunization programs in Europe.

Estimation of the Number of Respiratory Syncytial Virus-Associated Hospitalizations in Adults in the European Union

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of lower respiratory tract infections in adults that can result in hospitalizations. Estimating RSV-associated hospitalization is critical for planning RSV-related healthcare across Europe.

METHODS

We gathered RSV-associated hospitalization estimates from the RSV Consortium in Europe (RESCEU) for adults in Denmark, England, Finland, Norway, Netherlands, and Scotland from 2006 to 2017. We extrapolated these estimates to 28 European Union (EU) countries using nearest-neighbor matching, multiple imputations, and 2 sets of 10 indicators.

RESULTS

On average, 158 229 (95% confidence interval [CI], 140 865-175 592) RSV-associated hospitalizations occur annually among adults in the EU (≥18 years); 92% of these hospitalizations occur in adults ≥65 years. Among 75-84 years, the annual average is estimated at 74 519 (95% CI, 69 923-79 115) at a rate of 2.24 (95% CI, 2.10-2.38) per 1000. Among ≥85 years, the annual average is estimated at 37 904 (95% CI, 32 444-43 363) at a rate of 2.99 (95% CI, 2.56-3.42).

CONCLUSIONS

Our estimates of RSV-associated hospitalizations in adults are the first analysis integrating available data to provide the disease burden across the EU. Importantly, for a condition considered in the past to be primarily a disease of young children, the average annual hospitalization estimate in adults was lower but of a similar magnitude to the estimate in young children (0-4 years): 158 229 (95% CI, 140 865-175 592) versus 245 244 (95% CI, 224 688-265 799).

Immune imprinting and next-generation coronavirus vaccines

Vaccines based on historical virus isolates provide limited protection from continuously evolving RNA viruses, such as influenza viruses or coronaviruses, which occasionally spill over between animals and humans. Despite repeated booster immunizations, population-wide declines in the neutralization of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants have occurred. This has been compared to seasonal influenza vaccinations in humans, where the breadth of immune responses induced by repeat exposures to antigenically distinct influenza viruses is confounded by pre-existing immunity-a mechanism known as imprinting. Since its emergence, SARS-CoV-2 has evolved in a population with partial immunity, acquired by infection, vaccination or both. Here we critically examine the evidence for and against immune imprinting in host humoral responses to SARS-CoV-2 and its implications for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) booster vaccine programmes.

COVID-19-Related Age Profiles for SARS-CoV-2 Variants in England and Wales and States of the USA (2020 to 2022): Impact on All-Cause Mortality

Since 2020, COVID-19 has caused serious mortality around the world. Given the ambiguity in establishing COVID-19 as the direct cause of death, we first investigate the effects of age and sex on all-cause mortality during 2020 and 2021 in England and Wales. Since infectious agents have their own unique age profile for death, we use a 9-year time series and several different methods to adjust single-year-of-age deaths in England and Wales during 2019 (the pre-COVID-19 base year) to a pathogen-neutral single-year-of-age baseline. This adjusted base year is then used to confirm the widely reported higher deaths in males for most ages above 43 in both 2020 and 2021. During 2020 (+COVID-19 but no vaccination), both male and female population-adjusted deaths significantly increased above age 35. A significant reduction in all-cause mortality among both males and females aged 75+ could be demonstrated in 2021 during the widespread COVID-19 vaccination period; however, deaths below age 75 progressively increased. This finding arises from a mix of vaccination coverage and year-of-age profiles of deaths for the different SARS-CoV-2 variants. In addition, specific effects of age around puberty were demonstrated, where females had higher deaths than males. There is evidence that year-of-birth cohorts may also be involved, indicating that immune priming to specific pathogen outbreaks in the past may have led to lower deaths for some birth cohorts. To specifically identify the age profile for the COVID-19 variants from 2020 to 2023, we employ the proportion of total deaths at each age that are potentially due to or 'with' COVID-19. The original Wuhan strain and the Alpha variant show somewhat limited divergence in the age profile, with the Alpha variant shifting to a moderately higher proportion of deaths below age 84. The Delta variant specifically targeted individuals below age 65. The Omicron variants showed a significantly lower proportion of overall mortality, with a markedly higher relative proportion of deaths above age 65, steeply increasing with age to a maximum around 100 years of age. A similar age profile for the variants can be seen in the age-banded deaths in US states, although they are slightly obscured by using age bands rather than single years of age. However, the US data shows that higher male deaths are greatly dependent on age and the COVID variant. Deaths assessed to be 'due to' COVID-19 (as opposed to 'involving' COVID-19) in England and Wales were especially overestimated in 2021 relative to the change in all-cause mortality. This arose as a by-product of an increase in COVID-19 testing capacity in late 2020. Potential structure-function mechanisms for the age-specificity of SARS-CoV-2 variants are discussed, along with potential roles for small noncoding RNAs (miRNAs). Using data from England, it is possible to show that the unvaccinated do indeed have a unique age profile for death from each variant and that vaccination alters the shape of the age profile in a manner dependent on age, sex, and the variant. The question is posed as to whether vaccines based on different variants carry a specific age profile.

Molecular consequences of peripheral Influenza A infection on cell populations in the murine hypothalamus

Infection with Influenza A virus (IAV) causes the well-known symptoms of the flu, including fever, loss of appetite, and excessive sleepiness. These responses, mediated by the brain, will normally disappear once the virus is cleared from the system, but a severe respiratory virus infection may cause long-lasting neurological disturbances. These include encephalitis lethargica and narcolepsy. The mechanisms behind such long lasting changes are unknown. The hypothalamus is a central regulator of the homeostatic response during a viral challenge. To gain insight into the neuronal and non-neuronal molecular changes during an IAV infection, we intranasally infected mice with an H1N1 virus and extracted the brain at different time points. Using single-nucleus RNA sequencing (snRNA-seq) of the hypothalamus, we identify transcriptional effects in all identified cell populations. The snRNA-seq data showed the most pronounced transcriptional response at 3 days past infection, with a strong downregulation of genes across all cell types. General immune processes were mainly impacted in microglia, the brain resident immune cells, where we found increased numbers of cells expressing pro-inflammatory gene networks. In addition, we found that most neuronal cell populations downregulated genes contributing to the energy homeostasis in mitochondria and protein translation in the cytosol, indicating potential reduced cellular and neuronal activity. This might be a preventive mechanism in neuronal cells to avoid intracellular viral replication and attack by phagocytosing cells. The change of microglia gene activity suggest that this is complemented by a shift in microglia activity to provide increased surveillance of their surroundings.

Indigenous communities and influenza: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Several studies have documented that specific Indigenous groups have been disproportionately affected by previous pandemics. The objective of this paper is to describe the protocol to be used in a review and meta-analysis of the literature on Indigenous groups and influenza. Using this protocol as a guide, a future study will provide a comprehensive historical overview of pre-COVID impact of influenza on Indigenous groups by combining data from the last five influenza pandemics and seasonal influenza up to date.

METHODS/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS

The review will include peer-reviewed original studies published in English, Spanish, Portuguese, Swedish, Danish, and Norwegian. Records will be identified through systematic literature search in eight databases: Embase, MEDLINE, CINAHL, Web of Science, Academic Search Ultimate, SocINDEX, ASSIA, and Google Scholar. Results will be summarized narratively and using meta-analytic strategies.

DISCUSSION

To our knowledge, there is no systematic review combining historical data on the impact of both seasonal and pandemic influenza on Indigenous populations. By summarizing results within and across Indigenous groups, different countries, and historical periods, as well as research in six different languages, we aim to provide information on how strong the risk for influenza is among Indigenous groups and how consistent this risk is across groups, regions, time, and seasonal versus the specific pandemic influenza strains.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42021246391.

Identification of Anti-Influenza A Compounds Inhibiting the Viral Non-Structural Protein 1 (NS1) Using a Type I Interferon-Driven Screening Strategy

There is an urgent need to identify efficient antiviral compounds to combat existing and emerging RNA virus infections, particularly those related to seasonal and pandemic influenza outbreaks. While inhibitors of the influenza viral integral membrane proton channel protein (M2), neuraminidase (NA), and cap-dependent endonuclease are available, circulating influenza viruses acquire resistance over time. Thus, the need for the development of additional anti-influenza drugs with novel mechanisms of action exists. In the present study, a cell-based screening assay and a small molecule library were used to screen for activities that antagonized influenza A non-structural protein 1 (NS1), a highly conserved, multifunctional accessory protein that inhibits the type I interferon response against influenza. Two potential anti-influenza agents, compounds 157 and 164, were identified with anti-NS1 activity, resulting in the reduction of A/PR/8/34(H1N1) influenza A virus replication and the restoration of IFN-β expression in human lung epithelial A549 cells. A 3D pharmacophore modeling study of the active compounds provided a glimpse of the structural motifs that may contribute to anti-influenza virus activity. This screening approach is amenable to a broader analysis of small molecule compounds to inhibit other viral targets.

Factors associated with poor outcomes in patients with severe acute respiratory infections in Bahrain

Background

Severe acute respiratory tract infection (SARI) is a major global health threat. This study aimed to examine risk factors associated with poor outcomes in patients with SARI.

Methods

All patients who met World Health Organization's (WHO) SARI case definition and were admitted to Salmaniya Medical Complex from January 2018 to December 2021 were included. Epidemiological and virological data were obtained and analyzed.

Results

Of 1159 patients with SARI included, 731 (63.1%) patients were below 50 years, and 357 (30.8%) tested positive for viral pathogens. The most prevalent virus was Flu-A (n = 134, 37.5%), SARS-CoV2 (n = 118, 33%), RSV (n = 51, 14.3%), Flu B (n = 49,13.7%), other viruses (n = 3, 0.8%), and combined infection (n = 2, 0.6%). Six hundred fifty-eight (56.8%) patients had comorbidities, mainly diabetes (n = 284, 43%) and heart disease (n = 217, 33%). 183 (16%) patients were admitted to ICU, 110 (9%) needed mechanical ventilation, and 80 (7%) patients died.The odds of ICU admission were higher for patients with hematological (OR 5.9, 95% CI 3.1-11.1) and lung diseases (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.6-4.6). The odds of mechanical ventilation were higher among patients with lung disease (OR 3.1, 95% 1.7-5.5). The mortality odds were higher among patients above 50 (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.4-4.1) and chronic kidney disease (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.1-5.2).

Conclusions

Being 50 years or above or having kidney, lung, or heart diseases was associated with worse SARI outcomes. Efforts and actions in developing better strategies to vaccinate individuals at high risk and early diagnosis and treatment should help in reducing the burden of SARI.

Pathological changes of the spleen in mice infected with influenza against the background of the use of saponin tauroside Sx1

Background. It is well known that viral infections are able to cause an imbalance of the interferon system and inhibition of cellular and phagocytic reactions of the body. One of the possible solutions of the flu treatment problem may be the application of immunomodulators of native plant origin since the influenza virus possesses a suppressive effect on cellular immunity and the interferon system.

The aim. To evaluate the effect of saponin tauroside Sx1 obtained from Crimean ivy leaves on histological changes in the spleen of mice infected with influenza A/WSN/1/33(H1N1) virus.

Material and methods. We used 78 male BALB/c mice weighing 16–18 g which were divided into the groups: control (K; n = 12); healthy animals treated with saponin (KS; n = 22); animals infected with influenza virus A/WSN/1/33(H1N1) (V; n = 22); infected animals treated with saponin tauroside Sx1 twice a day for 3 days (SV; n = 22). Histological studies of the spleen were performed on the 4th (subgroups V, SV, KS) and 14th day (2V, 2SV, 2KS).

Results. The spleen tissue of the KS subgroup demonstrated hyperplasia of the white pulp in the form of lymphoid nodules expansion. On the 4th day in the KS subgroup a statistically significant increase in the total area of the lymphoid nodules by 3.9 times compared to the K subgroup was observed. In subgroup V, there was a sharp decrease in the area of white pulp and in 2V the lymphoid nodules zones were practically indistinguishable. Applied correction in the SV and 2SV subgroups significantly ceased the damaging effect of the virus: the lymphoid nodules area increased by 2.7 times in the 2SV subgroup compared to 2V.

Conclusion. Infection with the H1N1 influenza virus leads to compensatory activation of the immune response, however, on the 14th day, a pronounced depletion of the splenic white pulp occurred. The introduction of saponin tauroside Sx1 enhanced the functional activity of the spleen due to an increase of the white pulp area. 

Comparative performance of between-population vaccine allocation strategies with applications for emerging pandemics

Vaccine allocation decisions during emerging pandemics have proven to be challenging due to competing ethical, practical, and political considerations. Complicating decision making, policy makers need to consider vaccine allocation strategies that balance needs both within and between populations. When vaccine stockpiles are limited, doses should be allocated in locations to maximize their impact. Using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model we examine optimal vaccine allocation decisions across two populations considering the impact of characteristics of the population (e.g., size, underlying immunity, heterogeneous risk structure, interaction), vaccine (e.g., vaccine efficacy), pathogen (e.g., transmissibility), and delivery (e.g., varying speed and timing of rollout). Across a wide range of characteristics considered, we find that vaccine allocation proportional to population size (i.e., pro-rata allocation) performs either better or comparably to nonproportional allocation strategies in minimizing the cumulative number of infections. These results may argue in favor of sharing of vaccines between locations in the context of an epidemic caused by an emerging pathogen, where many epidemiologic characteristics may not be known.

Quasispecies Nature of RNA Viruses: Lessons from the Past

Viral quasispecies are distinct but closely related mutants formed by the disparity in viral genomes due to recombination, mutations, competition, and selection pressure. Theoretical derivation for the origin of a quasispecies is owed to the error-prone replication by polymerase and mutants of RNA replicators. Here, we briefly addressed the theoretical and mathematical origin of quasispecies and their dynamics. The impact of quasispecies for major salient human pathogens is reviewed. In the current global scenario, rapid changes in geographical landscapes favor the origin and selection of mutants. It comes as no surprise that a cauldron of mutants poses a significant risk to public health, capable of causing pandemics. Mutation rates in RNA viruses are magnitudes higher than in DNA organisms, explaining their enhanced virulence and evolvability. RNA viruses cause the most devastating pandemics; for example, members of the Orthomyxoviridae family caused the great influenza pandemic (1918 flu or Spanish flu), the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome) outbreak, and the human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV), lentiviruses of the Retroviridae family, caused worldwide devastation. Rapidly evolving RNA virus populations are a daunting challenge for the designing of effective control measures like vaccines. Developing awareness of the evolutionary dispositions of RNA viral mutant spectra and what influences their adaptation and virulence will help curtail outbreaks of past and future pathogens.

COVID-19 mortality attenuated during widespread Omicron transmission, Denmark, 2020 to 2022

BackgroundIt sparked considerable attention from international media when Denmark lifted restrictions against COVID-19 in February 2022 amidst widespread transmission of the new SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and a steep rise in reported COVID-19 mortality based on the 30-day COVID-19 death count.AimOur aim was to investigate how coincidental infections affected COVID-19 mortality estimates following the introduction of the Omicron variant in late 2021.MethodsWe compared the 30-day COVID-19 death count with the observed mortality using three alternative mortality estimation methods; (i) a mathematical model to correct the 30-day COVID-19 death count for coincidental deaths, (ii) the Causes of Death Registry (CDR) and (iii) all-cause excess mortality.ResultsThere was a substantial peak in the 30-day COVID-19 death count following the emergence of the Omicron variant in late 2021. However, there was also a substantial change in the proportion of coincidental deaths, increasing from 10-20% to around 40% of the recorded COVID-19 deaths. The high number of 30-day COVID-19 deaths was not reflected in the number of COVID-19 deaths in the CDR and the all-cause excess mortality surveillance.ConclusionOur analysis showed a distinct change in the mortality pattern following the introduction of Omicron in late 2021 with a markedly higher proportion of people estimated to have died with, rather than of, COVID-19 compared with mortality patterns observed earlier in the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating alternative mortality surveillance methods to more correctly estimate the burden of COVID-19 as the pandemic continues to evolve.

The Role of Biomarkers in Influenza and COVID-19 Community-Acquired Pneumonia in Adults

Pneumonia is a growing problem worldwide and remains an important cause of morbidity, hospitalizations, intensive care unit admission and mortality. Viruses are the causative agents in almost a fourth of cases of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in adults, with an important representation of influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. Moreover, mixed viral and bacterial pneumonia is common and a risk factor for severity of disease. It is critical for clinicians the early identification of the pathogen causing infection to avoid inappropriate antibiotics, as well as to predict clinical outcomes. It has been extensively reported that biomarkers could be useful for these purposes. This review describe current evidence and provide recommendations about the use of biomarkers in influenza and SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia, focusing mainly on procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP). Evidence was based on a qualitative analysis of the available scientific literature (meta-analyses, randomized controlled trials, observational studies and clinical guidelines). Both PCT and CRP levels provide valuable information about the prognosis of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. Additionally, PCT levels, considered along with other clinical, radiological and laboratory data, are useful for early diagnosis of mixed viral and bacterial CAP, allowing the proper management of the disease and adequate antibiotics prescription. The authors propose a practical PCT algorithm for clinical decision-making to guide antibiotic initiation in cases of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. Further well-design studies are needed to validate PCT algorithm among these patients and to confirm whether other biomarkers are indeed useful as diagnostic or prognostic tools in viral pneumonia.

The Structural Identifiability of a Humidity-Driven Epidemiological Model of Influenza Transmission

Influenza epidemics cause considerable morbidity and mortality every year worldwide. Climate-driven epidemiological models are mainstream tools to understand seasonal transmission dynamics and predict future trends of influenza activity, especially in temperate regions. Testing the structural identifiability of these models is a fundamental prerequisite for the model to be applied in practice, by assessing whether the unknown model parameters can be uniquely determined from epidemic data. In this study, we applied a scaling method to analyse the structural identifiability of four types of commonly used humidity-driven epidemiological models. Specifically, we investigated whether the key epidemiological parameters (i.e., infectious period, the average duration of immunity, the average latency period, and the maximum and minimum daily basic reproductive number) can be uniquely determined simultaneously when prevalence data is observable. We found that each model is identifiable when the prevalence of infection is observable. The structural identifiability of these models will lay the foundation for testing practical identifiability in the future using synthetic prevalence data when considering observation noise. In practice, epidemiological models should be examined with caution before using them to estimate model parameters from epidemic data.

Post-marketing surveillance study on influenza vaccine in South Korea using a nationwide spontaneous reporting database with multiple data mining methods

Safety profiles of the influenza vaccine and its subtypes are still limited. We aimed to address this knowledge gap using multiple data mining methods and calculated performance measurements to evaluate the precision of different detection methods. We conducted a post-marketing surveillance study between 2005 and 2019 using the Korea Adverse Event Reporting System database. Three data mining methods were applied: (a) proportional reporting ratio, (b) information component, and (c) tree-based scan statistics. We evaluated the performance of each method in comparison with the known adverse events (AEs) described in the labeling information. Compared to other vaccines, we identified 36 safety signals for the influenza vaccine, and 7 safety signals were unlabeled. In subtype-stratified analyses, application site disorders were reported more frequently with quadrivalent and cell-based vaccines, while a wide range of AEs were noted for trivalent and egg-based vaccines. Tree-based scan statistics showed well-balanced performance. Among the detected signals of influenza vaccines, narcolepsy requires special attention. A wider range of AEs were detected as signals for trivalent and egg-based vaccines. Although tree-based scan statistics showed balanced performance, complementary use of other techniques would be beneficial when large noise due to false positives is expected.

Preparing for pandemics: a systematic review of pandemic influenza clinical management guidelines

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of evidence-based clinical decision-making. Clinical management guidelines (CMGs) may help reduce morbidity and mortality by improving the quality of clinical decisions. This systematic review aims to evaluate the availability, inclusivity, and quality of pandemic influenza CMGs, to identify gaps that can be addressed to strengthen pandemic preparedness in this area.

METHODS

Ovid Medline, Ovid Embase, TRIP (Turning Research Into Practice), and Guideline Central were searched systematically from January 2008 to 23rd June 2022, complemented by a grey literature search till 16th June 2022. Pandemic influenza CMGs including supportive care or empirical treatment recommendations were included. Two reviewers independently extracted data from the included studies and assessed their quality using AGREE II (Appraisal of Guidelines for Research & Evaluation). The findings are presented narratively.

RESULTS

Forty-eight CMGs were included. They were produced in high- (42%, 20/48), upper-middle- (40%, 19/48), and lower-middle (8%, 4/48) income countries, or by international organisations (10%, 5/48). Most CMGs (81%, 39/48) were over 5 years old. Guidelines included treatment recommendations for children (75%, 36/48), pregnant women (54%, 26/48), people with immunosuppression (33%, 16/48), and older adults (29%, 14/48). Many CMGs were of low quality (median overall score: 3 out of 7 (range 1-7). All recommended oseltamivir; recommendations for other neuraminidase inhibitors and supportive care were limited and at times contradictory. Only 56% (27/48) and 27% (13/48) addressed oxygen and fluid therapy, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data highlights the limited availability of up-to-date pandemic influenza CMGs globally. Of those identified, many were limited in scope and quality and several lacked recommendations for specific at-risk populations. Recommendations on supportive care, the mainstay of treatment, were limited and heterogeneous. The most recent guideline highlighted that the evidence-base to support antiviral treatment recommendations is still limited. There is an urgent need for trials into treatment and supportive care strategies including for different risk populations. New evidence should be incorporated into globally accessible guidelines, to benefit patient outcomes. A 'living guideline' framework is recommended and further research into guideline implementation in different resourced settings, particularly low- and middle-income countries.

In-hospital incidence of and risk factors for influenza-associated respiratory failure

BACKGROUND

Respiratory failure (RF) is the most important complication of influenza virus infection. Its definition and incidence are heterogeneous in the literature.

METHODS

This systematic review and meta-analysis aim to determine the incidence of and risk factors for RF in patients hospitalized with influenza. Electronic databases were searched for articles on RF in patients hospitalized for influenza infection up to December 2021 regardless of their geographical location. Observational and experimental studies were considered for inclusion, excluding case series. The Newcastle-Ottawa and Johanna Briggs scales were used for quality assessment. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed, followed by subgroup analyses according to, among others, presence/absence of pneumonia, RF definition, serotype and time period. PRISMA guidelines were followed for this review.

RESULTS

Thirty-six studies were finally included in the meta-analysis. Overall, RF incidence was 24% (range 5%-85%, 95% confidence interval [95CI] 19%-31%). Significantly higher incidences of RF were found in patients with pneumonia (42%, 95CI 28%-57%, p = .006), when RF was defined as hypoxemia (58%, 95CI 31%-81%, p < .001), and during the 2009 pandemic (25%, 95CI 16%-36%) and postpandemic period (23%, 95CI 15%-34%, p = .01). No differences were found between human influenza serotypes. Assessment of risk factors associated with the development of RF was not possible due to their inconsistent and heterogeneous reporting.

CONCLUSION

Respiratory failure is frequent in hospitalized influenza patients, especially in patients with pneumonia and since the 2009 pandemic, although its definition and reporting widely vary in the literature. This complicates its characterization and comparison between cohorts and with other respiratory viruses.

Traditional Chinese Medicine Injections Combined With Oseltamivir for Influenza: Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

Background: As a cause of respiratory tract infections in humans, influenza remains with high morbidity and mortality, with associated significant healthcare burden and increased financial burden. Traditional Chinese medicine injections (TCMIs) combined with oseltamivir (TCMIs + oseltamivir) are the representative therapeutic strategies for influenza, which is a compliant with clinical applications in China. The aim of this study was to describe the comparative efficacy and safety of TCMIs + oseltamivir in patients with influenza, based on the current evidence.

Methods: PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Data Knowledge Service Platform, VIP information resource integration service platform databases, and the Chinese biomedical literature service system were searched to find randomized controlled trials where TCMIs + oseltamivir are the representative therapeutic strategies for influenza, from inception until October 2021, without language restriction. Two investigators independently screened eligibility criteria, extracted data, and appraised the risk of bias with the same criteria. We conducted a network meta-analysis using the Bayesian random method for each outcome and performed the sensitivity analysis, meta-regression, and Egger’s and Begg’s tests for the reliability and robustness of our results.

Results: Thirty-one trials including 2,893 participants proved eligible and reported on four TCMIs + oseltamivir versus oseltamivir. Network meta-analysis showed Yanhuning (YHN) +oseltamivir (MD = −1.7, 95% CrI: −2.5 to −0.88; SUCRA = 0.89; low certainty of evidence) in fever disappearance time, Tanreqing (TRQ) +oseltamivir (MD = −1.9, 95% CrI: −2.8 to −1; SUCRA = 0.97; low certainty of evidence) in cough disappearance time, and Xiyanping (XYP) +oseltamivir (OR = 5.9, 95% CrI: 3.1 to 11; SUCRA = 0.82; very low certainty of evidence) in the response rate to be more efficacious than oseltamivir alone with the best SUCRA. Based on the combined SUCRA value for primary outcomes, TRQ + oseltamivir is probably better in cough disappearance time, and XYP + oseltamivir and YHN + oseltamivir may be better in fever disappearance time than others. No significant difference in safety between the treatments.

Conclusion: In patients with influenza, TCMIs + oseltamivir only partially improve flu symptoms. Overall therapeutic efficacy and safety are inconclusive, based on low to very low certainty of evidence. However, the safety remains uncertain, and TCMI treatments for influenza should be considered with caution. More high-quality studies examining the efficacy and safety of TCMIs are needed.

Systematic Review Registration:https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/, identifier CRD42021286994

Comparative performance of between-population vaccine allocation strategies with applications for emerging pandemics

Vaccine allocation decisions during emerging pandemics have proven to be challenging due to competing ethical, practical, and political considerations. Complicating decision making, policy makers need to consider vaccine allocation strategies that balance needs both within and between populations. Due to limited vaccine stockpiles, vaccine doses should be allocated in locations where their impact will be maximized. Using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model we examine optimal vaccine allocation decisions across two populations considering the impact of population size, underlying immunity, continuous vaccine roll-out, heterogeneous population risk structure, and differences in disease transmissibility. We find that in the context of an emerging pathogen where many epidemiologic characteristics might not be known, equal vaccine allocation between populations performs optimally in most scenarios. In the specific case considering heterogeneous population risk structure, first targeting individuals at higher risk of transmission or death due to infection leads to equal resource allocation across populations.

Influenza Virus Infections in Polarized Cells

In humans and other mammals, the respiratory tract is represented by a complex network of polarized epithelial cells, forming an apical surface facing the external environment and a basal surface attached to the basement layer. These cells are characterized by differential expression of proteins and glycans, which serve as receptors during influenza virus infection. Attachment between these host receptors and the viral surface glycoprotein hemagglutinin (HA) initiates the influenza virus life cycle. However, the virus receptor binding specificities may not be static. Sialylated N-glycans are the most well-characterized receptors but are not essential for the entry of influenza viruses, and other molecules, such as O-glycans and non-sialylated glycans, may be involved in virus-cell attachment. Furthermore, correct cell polarity and directional trafficking of molecules are essential for the orderly development of the system and affect successful influenza infection; on the other hand, influenza infection can also change cell polarity. Here we review recent advances in our understanding of influenza virus infection in the respiratory tract of humans and other mammals, particularly the attachment between the virus and the surface of the polar cells and the polarity variation of these cells due to virus infection.

Centralized and decentralized wastewater-based epidemiology to infer COVID-19 transmission - A brief review

Wastewater-based epidemiology has shown to be a promising and innovative approach to measure a wide variety of illicit drugs that are consumed in the communities. In the same way as for illicit drugs, wastewater-based epidemiology is a promising approach to understand the prevalence of viruses in a community-level.

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic created an unprecedented burden on public health and diagnostic laboratories all over the world because of the need for massive laboratory testing. Many studies have shown the applicability of a centralized wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) approach, where samples are collected at WWTPs. A more recent concept is a decentralized approach for WBE where samples are collected at different points of the sewer system and at polluted water bodies. The second being particularly important in countries where there are insufficient connections from houses to municipal sewage pipelines and thus untreated wastewater is discharged directly in environmental waters.

A decentralized approach can be used to focus the value of diagnostic tests in what we call targeted-WBE, by monitoring wastewater in parts of the population where an outbreak is likely to happen, such as student dorms, retirement homes and hospitals. A combination of centralized and decentralized WBE should be considered for an affordable, sustainable, and successful WBE implementation in high-, middle- and low-income countries.

The end of the COVID-19 pandemic

There are no widely accepted, quantitative definitions for the end of a pandemic such as COVID-19. The end of the pandemic due to a new virus and the transition to endemicity may be defined based on a high proportion of the global population having some immunity from natural infection or vaccination. Other considerations include diminished death toll, diminished pressure on health systems, reduced actual and perceived personal risk, removal of restrictive measures and diminished public attention. A threshold of 70% of the global population having being vaccinated or infected was probably already reached in the second half of 2021. Endemicity may still show major spikes of infections and seasonality, but typically less clinical burden, although some locations are still hit more than others. Death toll and ICU occupancy figures are also consistent with a transition to endemicity by end 2021/early 2022. Personal risk of the vast majority of the global population was already very small by end 2021, but perceived risk may still be grossly overestimated. Restrictive measures of high stringency have persisted in many countries by early 2022. The gargantuan attention in news media, social media and even scientific circles should be tempered. Public health officials need to declare the end of the pandemic. Mid- and long-term consequences of epidemic waves and of adopted measures on health, society, economy, civilization and democracy may perpetuate a pandemic legacy long after the pandemic itself has ended.

Transportin-3 Facilitates Uncoating of Influenza A Virus

Influenza A viruses (IAVs) are a major global health threat and in the future, may cause the next pandemic. Although studies have partly uncovered the molecular mechanism of IAV–host interaction, it requires further research. In this study, we explored the roles of transportin-3 (TNPO3) in IAV infection. We found that TNPO3-deficient cells inhibited infection with four different IAV strains, whereas restoration of TNPO3 expression in knockout (KO) cells restored IAV infection. TNPO3 overexpression in wild-type (WT) cells promoted IAV infection, suggesting that TNPO3 is involved in the IAV replication. Furthermore, we found that TNPO3 depletion restrained the uncoating in the IAV life cycle, thereby inhibiting the process of viral ribonucleoprotein (vRNP) entry into the nucleus. However, KO of TNPO3 did not affect the virus attachment, endocytosis, or endosomal acidification processes. Subsequently, we found that TNPO3 can colocalize and interact with viral proteins M1 and M2. Taken together, the depletion of TNPO3 inhibits IAV uncoating, thereby inhibiting IAV replication. Our study provides new insights and potential therapeutic targets for unraveling the mechanism of IAV replication and treating influenza disease.

Historically High Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Switzerland, Sweden, and Spain

BACKGROUND

Excess mortality quantifies the overall mortality impact of a pandemic. Mortality data have been accessible for many countries in recent decades, but few continuous data have been available for longer periods.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the historical dimension of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 for 3 countries with reliable death count data over an uninterrupted span of more than 100 years.

DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING

Switzerland, Sweden, and Spain, which were militarily neutral and not involved in combat during either world war and have not been affected by significant changes in their territory since the end of the 19th century.

PARTICIPANTS

Complete populations of these 3 countries.

MEASUREMENTS

Continuous series of recorded deaths (from all causes) by month from the earliest available year (1877 for Switzerland, 1851 for Sweden, and 1908 for Spain) were jointly modeled with annual age group-specific death and total population counts using negative binomial and multinomial models, which accounted for temporal trends and seasonal variability of prepandemic years. The aim was to estimate the expected number of deaths in a pandemic year for a nonpandemic scenario and the difference in observed and expected deaths aggregated over the year.

RESULTS

In 2020, the number of excess deaths recorded per 100 000 persons was 100 (95% credible interval [CrI], 60 to 135) for Switzerland, 75 (CrI, 40 to 105) for Sweden, and 155 (CrI, 110 to 195) for Spain. In 1918, excess mortality was 6 to 7 times higher. In all 3 countries, the peaks of monthly excess mortality in 2020 were greater than most monthly excess mortality since 1918, including many peaks due to seasonal influenza and heat waves during that period.

LIMITATION

Historical vital statistics might be affected by minor completeness issues before the beginning of the 20th century.

CONCLUSION

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic led to the second-largest infection-related mortality disaster in Switzerland, Sweden, and Spain since the beginning of the 20th century.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Foundation for Research in Science and the Humanities at the University of Zurich, Swiss National Science Foundation, and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

On assessing excess mortality in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with a very high number of casualties in the general population. Assessing the exact magnitude of this number is a non-trivial problem, as relying only on officially reported COVID-19 associated fatalities runs the risk of incurring in several kinds of biases. One of the ways to approach the issue is to compare overall mortality during the pandemic with expected mortality computed using the observed mortality figures of previous years. In this paper, we build on existing methodology and propose two ways to compute expected as well as excess mortality, namely at the weekly and at the yearly level. Particular focus is put on the role of age, which plays a central part in both COVID-19-associated and overall mortality. We illustrate our methods by making use of age-stratified mortality data from the years 2016 to 2020 in Germany to compute age group-specific excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Broad-Spectrum Activity of Small Molecules Acting against Influenza a Virus: Biological and Computational Studies

Influenza still represents a problematic disease, involving millions of people every year and causing hundreds of thousands of deaths. Only a few drugs are clinically available. The search for an effective weapon is still ongoing. In this scenario, we recently identified new drug-like compounds with antiviral activity toward two A/H1N1 Influenza virus strains, which were demonstrated to interfere with the processes mediated by hemagglutinin (HA). In the present work, the compound’s ability to act against the A/H3N2 viral strain has been evaluated in hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays. Two of the five tested compounds were also active toward the A/H3N2 Influenza virus. To validate the scaffold activity, analogue compounds of two broad-spectrum molecules were selected and purchased for HI testing on both A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 Influenza viruses. Forty-three compounds were tested, and four proved to be active toward all three viral strains. A computational study has been carried out to depict the HA binding process of the most interesting compounds.

Estimates of mortality associated with seasonal influenza for the European Union from the GLaMOR project

BACKGROUND

The European Centres for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) estimates that seasonal influenzacauses 4-50 million symptomatic infections in the EU/EEA each year and 15,000-70,000 European citizens die of causes associated with influenza. We used modelling methods to estimate influenza-associated mortality for the European Union by age group and country.

METHODS

We compiled influenza-associated respiratory mortality estimates for 31 countries around the world (11 countries in the EU) during 2002-2011 (excluding the 2009 pandemic). From these we extrapolated the influenza mortality burden for all 193 countries of the world, including the 28 countries of the EU, using a multiple imputation approach. To study the effect of vaccination programs, we obtained data from the EU-funded VENICE project regarding the percentage of persons over 65 who were vaccinated in each country; the data ranged from 2% to 82% between the 21 countries which provided estimates for the 2006/07 reference season.

RESULTS

We estimated that an average of 27,600 (range 16,200-39,000) respiratory deaths were associated with seasonal influenza in the 28 EU countries per winter; 88% were among people 65 years and older, and the rates of mortality in this age group were roughly 35 times higher compared with those < 65 years. Estimates varied considerably across the EU; for example, rates in the elderly ranged from 21.6 (12.5-35.1) per 100,000 in Portugal to 36.5 (16.4-62.5) in Luxembourg, a difference of nearly 70%. We were unable to find a negative correlation between vaccination coverage rates and influenza-associated mortality estimates in the elderly.

CONCLUSION

Our EU estimate of influenza-associated respiratory mortality is broadly consistent with the ECDC estimate. More research is needed to explain the observed variation in mortality across the EU, and on possible bias that could explain the unexpected lack of mortality benefits associated with European elderly influenza vaccination programs.

Excess deaths reveal the true spatial, temporal and demographic impact of COVID-19 on mortality in Ecuador

BACKGROUND

In early 2020, Ecuador reported one of the highest surges of per capita deaths across the globe.

METHODS

We collected a comprehensive dataset containing individual death records between 2015 and 2020, from the Ecuadorian National Institute of Statistics and Census and the Ecuadorian Ministry of Government. We computed the number of excess deaths across time, geographical locations and demographic groups using Poisson regression methods.

RESULTS

Between 1 January and 23 September 2020, the number of excess deaths in Ecuador was 36 402 [95% confidence interval (CI): 35 762-36 827] or 208 per 100 000 people, which is 171% of the expected deaths in that period in a typical year. Only 20% of the excess deaths are attributable to confirmed COVID-19 deaths. Strikingly, in provinces that were most affected by COVID-19 such as Guayas and Santa Elena, the all-cause deaths are more than double the expected number of deaths that would have occurred in a normal year. The extent of excess deaths in men is higher than in women, and the number of excess deaths increases with age. Indigenous populations had the highest level of excess deaths among all ethnic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the exceptionally high level of excess deaths in Ecuador highlights the enormous burden and heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 on mortality, especially in older age groups and Indigenous populations in Ecuador, which was not fully revealed by COVID-19 death counts. Together with the limited testing in Ecuador, our results suggest that the majority of the excess deaths were likely to be undocumented COVID-19 deaths.

COVID-19 and Lung Mast Cells: The Kallikrein-Kinin Activation Pathway

Mast cells (MCs) have relevant participation in inflammatory and vascular hyperpermeability events, responsible for the action of the kallikrein-kinin system (KKS), that affect patients inflicted by the severe form of COVID-19. Given a higher number of activated MCs present in COVID-19 patients and their association with vascular hyperpermeability events, we investigated the factors that lead to the activation and degranulation of these cells and their harmful effects on the alveolar septum environment provided by the action of its mediators. Therefore, the pyroptotic processes throughout caspase-1 (CASP-1) and alarmin interleukin-33 (IL-33) secretion were investigated, along with the immunoexpression of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), bradykinin receptor B1 (B1R) and bradykinin receptor B2 (B2R) on post-mortem lung samples from 24 patients affected by COVID-19. The results were compared to 10 patients affected by H1N1pdm09 and 11 control patients. As a result of the inflammatory processes induced by SARS-CoV-2, the activation by immunoglobulin E (IgE) and degranulation of tryptase, as well as Toluidine Blue metachromatic (TB)-stained MCs of the interstitial and perivascular regions of the same groups were also counted. An increased immunoexpression of the tissue biomarkers CASP-1, IL-33, ACE2, B1R and B2R was observed in the alveolar septum of the COVID-19 patients, associated with a higher density of IgE+ MCs, tryptase+ MCs and TB-stained MCs, in addition to the presence of intra-alveolar edema. These findings suggest the direct correlation of MCs with vascular hyperpermeability, edema and diffuse alveolar damage (DAD) events that affect patients with a severe form of this disease. The role of KKS activation in events involving the exacerbated increase in vascular permeability and its direct link with the conditions that precede intra-alveolar edema, and the consequent DAD, is evidenced. Therapy with drugs that inhibit the activation/degranulation of MCs can prevent the worsening of the prognosis and provide a better outcome for the patient.

Protein Disulfide Isomerase A3 Regulates Influenza Neuraminidase Activity and Influenza Burden in the Lung

Influenza (IAV) neuraminidase (NA) is a glycoprotein required for the viral exit from the cell. NA requires disulfide bonds for proper function. We have recently demonstrated that protein disulfide isomerase (PDI)A3 is required for oxidative folding of IAV hemagglutinin (HA), and viral propagation. However, it not known whether PDIs are required for NA maturation or if these interactions represent a putative target for the treatment of influenza infection. We sought to determine whether PDIA3 is required for disulfide bonds of NA, its activity, and propagation of the virus. Requirement of disulfides for NA oligomerization and activity were determined using biotin switch and redox assays in WT and PDIA3^−/− in A549 cells. A PDI specific inhibitor (LOC14) was utilized to determine the requirement of PDIs in NA activity, IAV burden, and inflammatory response in A549 and primary mouse tracheal epithelial cells. Mice were treated with the inhibitor LOC14 and subsequently examined for IAV burden, NA activity, cytokine, and immune response. IAV-NA interacts with PDIA3 and this interaction is required for NA activity. PDIA3 ablation or inhibition decreased NA activity, viral burden, and inflammatory response in lung epithelial cells. LOC14 treatment significantly attenuated the influenza-induced inflammatory response in mice including the overall viral burden. These results provide evidence for PDIA3 inhibition suppressing NA activity, potentially providing a novel platform for host-targeted antiviral therapies.

Pandemics of the 21st Century: The Risk Factor for Obese People

The number of obese adults and children is increasing worldwide, with obesity now being a global epidemic. Around 2.8 million people die annually from clinical overweight or obesity. Obesity is associated with numerous comorbid conditions including hypertension, cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, hypertriglyceridemia, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, and cancer, and even the development of severe disease after infection with viruses. Over the past twenty years, a number of new viruses has emerged and entered the human population. Moreover, influenza (H1N1)pdm09 virus and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have caused pandemics. During pandemics, the number of obese patients presents challenging and complex issues in medical and surgical intensive care units. Morbidity amongst obese individuals is directly proportional to body mass index. In this review, we describe the impact of obesity on the immune system, adult mortality, and immune response after infection with pandemic influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we address the effect of obesity on vaccination.

Updated picture of SARS-CoV-2 variants and mutations

The worldwide burden of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still unremittingly prosecuting, with nearly 300 million infections and over 5.3 million deaths recorded so far since the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) pandemic at the end of the year 2019. The fight against this new highly virulent beta coronavirus appears one of the most strenuous and long challenges that humanity has ever faced, since a definitive treatment has not been identified so far. The adoption of potentially useful physical preventive measures such as lockdowns, social distancing and face masking seems only partially effective for mitigating viral spread, though efficacy and continuation of such measures on the long term is questionable, due to many social and economic reasons. Many COVID-19 vaccines have been developed and are now widely used, though their effectiveness is challenged by several aspects such as low uptake and limited efficacy in some specific populations, as well as by continuous emergence of new mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome, accompanying the origin and spread of new variants, which in turn may contribute to further decrease the effectiveness of current vaccines and treatments. This article is hence aimed to provide an updated picture of SARS-CoV-2 variants and mutations that have emerged from November 2019 to present time (i.e., early December 2021).

Influenza-associated mortality in Australia, 2010 through 2019: High modelled estimates in 2017

INTRODUCTION

In Australia, the 2017 and 2019 influenza seasons were severe. High-dose or adjuvanted vaccines were introduced for ≥65 year-olds in 2018.

AIM

To compare influenza-associated mortality in 2017 and 2019 with the average for 2010-2019.

METHODS

We used time series modelling to obtain estimates of influenza-associated death rates for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B in Australia, in persons of all ages and <65, 65-74 and ≥75 years. Estimates were made for pneumonia and influenza (P&I, 2010-2018), respiratory (2010-2018), and all-cause outcomes (2010-2019).

RESULTS

During 2010 through 2018 (and 2019 for all-cause), influenza was estimated to be associated with an annual average of 2.1 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.9, 2.4), 4.0 (95% CI 3.4, 4.6), and 11.6 (95% CI 8.4, 15.0) P&I, respiratory and all-cause deaths per 100,000 population, respectively. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was estimated to be associated with less than one quarter of influenza-associated P&I and respiratory deaths, while A(H3N2) and B were each estimated to contribute approximately equally to the remaining influenza-associated deaths. In 2017, the respective rates were 7.8 (95% CI 7.1, 8.4), 12.3 (95% CI 10.9, 13.6) and 26.0 (95% CI 20.8, 32.0) per 100,000. In 2019, the all-cause estimate was 20.8 (95% CI 14.9, 26.7) per 100,000.

CONCLUSIONS

Seasonal influenza continues to be associated with substantial mortality in Australia, with at least double the average occurring in 2017. Age-specific monitoring of vaccine effectiveness is needed in Australia to understand higher mortality seasons.

The "original antigenic sin" and its relevance for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) vaccination

Imprinting of the specific molecular image of a given protein antigen into immunological memory is one of the hallmarks of immunity. A later contact with a related, but different antigen should not trigger the memory response (because the produced antibodies would not be effective). The preferential expansion of cross-reactive antibodies, or T-lymphocytes for that matter, by a related antigen has been termed the original antigenic sin and was first described by Thomas Francis Jr. in 1960. The phenomenon was initially described for influenza virus, but also has been found for dengue and rotavirus. The antibody dependent enhancement observed in feline coronavirus vaccination also may be related to the original antigenic sin. For a full interpretation of the effectivity of the immune response against SARS-CoV-2, as well as for the success of vaccination, the role of existing immunological memory against circulating corona viruses is reviewed and analyzed.

Human Influenza Epidemiology

Influenza virus infections are common in people of all ages. Epidemics occur in the winter months in temperate locations and at varying times of the year in subtropical and tropical locations. Most influenza virus infections cause mild and self-limiting disease, and around one-half of all infections occur with a fever. Only a small minority of infections lead to serious disease requiring hospitalization. During epidemics, the rates of influenza virus infections are typically highest in school-age children. The clinical severity of infections tends to increase at the extremes of age and with the presence of underlying medical conditions, and impact of epidemics is greatest in these groups. Vaccination is the most effective measure to prevent infections, and in recent years influenza vaccines have become the most frequently used vaccines in the world. Nonpharmaceutical public health measures can also be effective in reducing transmission, allowing suppression or mitigation of influenza epidemics and pandemics.

Risk Factors of Influenza-Associated Respiratory Illnesses Reported to a Sentinel Hospital of Lahore, Pakistan: 2015-2016

Epidemiological data about determinants of influenza A virus (IAV) in the Pakistani population is scarce. We aimed to conduct a prospective hospital-based active surveillance study from October 2015 to May 2016 to identify potential risk factors associated with IAV infection among patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory illness (SARI). Surveillance was conducted in Lahore General Hospital, selected as a sentinel site in Lahore District, Pakistan. Nasal/throat samples were collected along with epidemiological and clinical data from enrolled patients. Real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) was performed to identify IAV and its subtypes (H1N1pdm09, H3N2). Data were analyzed to determine risk factors and risk markers associated with IAV infections. A total of 311 suspected ILI and SARI cases were enrolled in the study, and among these 50 were IAV-positive. Of these 50 confirmed cases of IAV, 14 were subtyped as H1N1pdm09 and 15 were H3N2; the remaining 21 were untyped. A final multivariable model identified four independent risk factors/markers for IAV infection: exposure history to ILI patients within last 7 days and gender being male were identified as risk factors of IAV infection, while use of antibiotics prior to hospital consultation and presence of fever were identified as risk markers. We concluded that adopting nonpharmaceutical interventions like hand hygiene, masks, social distancing, and where possible, avoiding identified risk factors could decrease the risk of IAV infection and may prevent imminent outbreaks of IAV in the community.