Epidemiological trends of dengue disease in Thailand (2000-2011): a systematic literature review

Urban Aedes aegypti suitability indicators: a study in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

BACKGROUND

Controlling Aedes aegypti stands as the primary strategy in curtailing the global threat of vector-borne viral infections such as dengue fever, which is responsible for around 400 million infections and 40 000 fatalities annually. Effective interventions require a precise understanding of Ae aegypti spatiotemporal distribution and behaviour, particularly in urban settings where most infections occur. However, conventionally applied sample-based entomological surveillance systems often fail to capture the high spatial variability of Ae aegypti that can arise from heterogeneous urban landscapes and restricted Aedes flight range.

METHODS

In this study, we aimed to address the challenge of capturing the spatial variability of Ae aegypti by leveraging emerging geospatial big data, including openly available satellite and street view imagery, to locate common Ae aegypti breeding habitats. These data enabled us to infer the seasonal suitability for Ae aegypti eggs and larvae at a spatial resolution of 200 m within the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

FINDINGS

The proposed microhabitat and macrohabitat indicators for immature Ae aegypti explained the distribution of Ae aegypti ovitrap egg counts by up to 72% (95% CI 70-74) and larval counts by up to 74% (72-76). Spatiotemporal interpolations of ovitrap counts, using suitability indicators, provided high-resolution insights into the spatial variability of urban immature Ae aegypti that could not be captured with sample-based surveillance techniques alone.

INTERPRETATION

The potential of the proposed method lies in synergising entomological field measurements with digital indicators on urban landscape to guide vector control and address the prevailing spread of Ae aegypti-transmitted viruses. Estimating Ae aegypti distributions considering habitat size is particularly important for targeting novel vector control interventions such as Wolbachia.

FUNDING

German Research Foundation and Austrian Science Fund.

Epidemiological Changes in Acute Febrile Diseases after the COVID-19 Pandemic in Thailand

Acute undifferentiated febrile illnesses (AUFIs) are short-duration infectious diseases with nonspecific symptoms. In Thailand, common AUFIs include dengue, malaria, leptospirosis, scrub typhus, and typhoid fever. This study aimed to determine the case numbers of AUFI etiologies in Thailand before coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (phase 1 from January 2018 to February 2020) and during the COVID-19 pandemic with preventive measures (phase 2 from March 2020 to April 2022), and the loosening of the preventive measures (phase 3 from May 2022 to December 2022). We used Thailand's national database from 2018 to 2022 to determine the case numbers of AUFIs and geographic heat maps to identify endemic areas in Thailand. The case numbers of malaria, dengue, leptospirosis, typhoid, and scrub typhus significantly decreased during phase 2 (preventive measures) (P = 0.02), and cases of malaria and leptospirosis increased during phase 3 (loosened preventive measures) (P = 0.01). In 2022, malaria and leptospirosis increased by 39% and 48%, respectively, compared with the previous year. Malaria increased in western Thailand along the border between Thailand and Myanmar, where malaria preventive measures were insufficient, whereas leptospirosis increased in northern Thailand. The epidemiology of acute febrile diseases changes significantly depending on the global epidemic of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 and the implementation of preventive measures, such as face masks, hand hygiene, social distancing, and stay-at-home and lockdown measures.

Comparative evaluation of spatiotemporal methods for effective dengue cluster detection with a case study of national surveillance data in Thailand

Dengue fever poses a significant public health burden in tropical regions, including Thailand, where periodic epidemics strain healthcare resources. Effective disease surveillance is essential for timely intervention and resource allocation. Various methods exist for spatiotemporal cluster detection, but their comparative performance remains unclear. This study compared spatiotemporal cluster detection methods using simulated and real dengue surveillance data from Thailand. A simulation study explored diverse disease scenarios, characterized by varying magnitudes and spatial-temporal patterns, while real data analysis utilized monthly national dengue surveillance data from 2018 to 2020. Evaluation metrics included accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. Bayesian models and FlexScan emerged as top performers, demonstrating superior accuracy and sensitivity. Traditional methods such as Getis Ord and Moran's I showed poorer performance, while other scanning-based approaches like spatial SaTScan exhibited limitations in positive predictive value and tended to identify large clusters due to the inflexibility of its scanning window shape. Bayesian modeling with a space-time interaction term outperformed testing-based cluster detection methods, emphasizing the importance of incorporating spatiotemporal components. Our study highlights the superior performance of Bayesian models and FlexScan in spatiotemporal cluster detection for dengue surveillance. These findings offer valuable guidance for policymakers and public health authorities in refining disease surveillance strategies and resource allocation. Moreover, the insights gained from this research could be valuable for other diseases sharing similar characteristics and settings, broadening the applicability of our findings beyond dengue surveillance.

High-resolution mapping of urban Aedes aegypti immature abundance through breeding site detection based on satellite and street view imagery

Identification of Aedes aegypti breeding hotspots is essential for the implementation of targeted vector control strategies and thus the prevention of several mosquito-borne diseases worldwide. Training computer vision models on satellite and street view imagery in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, we analyzed the correlation between the density of common breeding grounds and Aedes aegypti infestation measured by ovitraps on a monthly basis between 2019 and 2022. Our findings emphasized the significance (p ≤ 0.05) of micro-habitat proxies generated through object detection, allowing to explain high spatial variance in urban abundance of Aedes aegypti immatures. Water tanks, non-mounted car tires, plastic bags, potted plants, and storm drains positively correlated with Aedes aegypti egg and larva counts considering a 1000 m mosquito flight range buffer around 2700 ovitrap locations, while dumpsters, small trash bins, and large trash bins exhibited a negative association. This complementary application of satellite and street view imagery opens the pathway for high-resolution interpolation of entomological surveillance data and has the potential to optimize vector control strategies. Consequently it supports the mitigation of emerging infectious diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti, such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, which cause thousands of deaths each year.

Perspectives and challenges in developing and implementing integrated dengue surveillance tools and technology in Thailand: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Dengue remains a persistent public health concern, especially in tropical and sub-tropical countries like Thailand. The development and utilization of quantitative tools and information technology show significant promise for enhancing public health policy decisions in integrated dengue control. However, the effective implementation of these tools faces multifaceted challenges and barriers that are relatively underexplored.

METHODS

This qualitative study employed in-depth interviews to gain a better understanding of the experiences and challenges of quantitative tool development and implementation with key stakeholders involved in dengue control in Thailand, using a phenomenological framework. A diverse range of participants, including public health workers and dengue control experts, participated in these interviews. The collected interview data were systematically managed and investigated using thematic analysis to extract meaningful insights.

RESULTS

The ability to collect dengue surveillance data and conduct ongoing analyses were contingent upon the availability of individuals possessing essential digital literacy and analytical skills, which were often in short supply. Furthermore, effective space-time early warning and precise data collection were hindered by the absence of user-friendly tools, efficient reporting systems, and complexities in data integration. Additionally, the study underscored the importance of the crucial role of community involvement and collaboration among organizations involved in integrated dengue surveillance, control and quantitative tool development.

CONCLUSIONS

This study employed a qualitative approach to gain a deeper understanding of the contextual intricacies surrounding the development and implementation of quantitative tools, which, despite their potential for strengthening public health policy decisions in dengue control, remain relatively unexplored in the Thai context. The findings yield valuable insights and recommendations for the development and utilization of quantitative tools to support dengue control in Thailand. This information also has the potential to support use of such tools to exert impact beyond dengue to a broader spectrum of diseases.

Spatial analysis of dengue fever incidence and serotype distribution in Vientiane Capital, Laos: A multi-year study

Laos is a hyperendemic country of all 4 dengue serotypes. Various factors contribute to the spread of the disease including viral itself, vectors, and environment. This study aims to analyze dengue data and its incidence in nine districts of Vientiane Capital, Laos spanning from 2019 to 2021 by data collected from Mittaphab Hospital. The Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) was applied to assess spatial distribution and identify high-probability locations for dengue occurrence by analyzing crucial environmental and climatic conditions. Dengue cases were more prominent in female (54.88 %) and highest case number was found in worker group (29.02 %) followed by student (28.47 %) and officer (16.92 %). In this study, the age group 21-30 years old had the highest infection rate (42.23 %), followed by 10-20 years old (24.21 %). Most of dengue cases was primary infection (91.61 %). Dengue serotype 2 predominated in 2019 and 2020 and substitute by serotype 1 in 2021. Across the nine districts of Vientiane Capital, the highest incidence of dengue was found in Xaythany district population in 2019, shifting to Chanthabouly district in 2020 and 2021. The MaxEnt revealed potentially most suitable areas for dengue were widely distributed central south part of Vientiane, Laos. Additionally, the best predictive variable for dengue occurrence was normalized difference vegetation index. Understanding of case characteristics and spatial distribution features of dengue will be helpful in effective surveillance and disease control in the future.

Dengue virus transmission risk in blood donation: Evidence from Thailand

Individuals infected with dengue virus (DENV) often show no symptoms, which raises the risk of DENV transfusion transmission (TT-DENV) in areas where the virus is prevalent. This study aimed to determine the evidence of DENV infection in blood donors from different geographic regions of Thailand. A cross-sectional study was conducted on blood donor samples collected from the Thai Red Cross National Blood Center and four regional blood centers between March and September 2020. Screening for DENV nonstructural protein 1 (NS1), anti-DENV immunoglobulin G (IgG), and IgM antibodies was performed on residual blood from 1053 donors using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kits. Positive NS1 and IgM samples indicating acute infection were verified using four different techniques, including quantitative real-time (q) RT-PCR, nested PCR, virus isolation in C6/36 cells, and mosquito amplification. DENV IgG seropositivity was identified in 89% (938/1053) of blood donors. Additionally, 0.4% (4/1053) and 2.1% (22/1053) of Thai blood donors tested positive for NS1 and IgM, respectively. The presence of asymptomatic dengue virus infection in healthy blood donors suggests a potential risk of transmission through blood transfusion, posing a concern for blood safety.

Bamboo stumps that are artificially in use put pressure on dengue and chikungunya vector control in Dhaka city, Bangladesh

BACKGROUND OBJECTIVES

Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes breed in natural and artificial containers, and they transmit dengue and chikungunya. A study was conducted to identify the contribution of bamboo stumps to these disease vectors that were used in the flower garden as pillars to hold the bamboo flex fence.

METHODS

Two sizes of whole bamboo were used to hold fences around gardens at Dhaka University, Bangladesh, and were painted red and green. Mosquito larvae and pupae were collected from bamboo stumps between July and August, and vectors were identified up to the species level. The data were analyzed using the STATA/MP 14.2 version.

RESULTS

83.5% and 0.2% were Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti, respectively, and the remaining were Culex and Ar-migeres species. Ae. albopictus, Ae. aegypti, and both species-positive bamboo stumps were 46.9, 0.7, and 47.1%, respectively. 54.5% of the bamboo stumps had at least one mosquito species. The average stump depth for Aedes positive stumps (mean=11.7 cm, SE = 0.5) was significantly (p <0.001) higher than the Aedes negative stumps (mean = 9.5 cm, SE = 0.4). 53.8% and 38.0% stumps were found Aedes positive on the ground and upper sides of fences, respectively, and found significant (p<0.01) differences between both sides. A zero-inflated negative binomial count model is significant at a 5% level of significance, χ2(4) = 11.8, p = 0.019 (<0.05) for Ae. albopictus. Stump depth is found to have a significant positive effect on the number of Aedes-positive stumps.

INTERPRETATION CONCLUSION

Artificially used natural containers are adding pressure to current mosquito control activities as mosquitoes are breeding on them, which needs additional attention.

Assessing the impact of emergency measures in varied population density areas during a large dengue outbreak

Background

The patterns of dengue are affected by many factors, including population density and climate factors. Densely populated areas could play a role in dengue transmission due to increased human-mosquito contacts, the presence of more diverse and suitable vector habitats and breeding sites, and changes in land use. In addition to population densities, climatic factors such as temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation have been demonstrated to predict dengue patterns. To control dengue, emergency measures should focus on vector management. Most approaches to assessing emergency responses to dengue risks involve applying simulation models or describing emergency activities and the results of implementing those responses. Research using real-world data with analytical methods to evaluate emergency responses to dengue has been limited. This study investigated emergency control measures associated with dengue risks in areas with high and low population densities, considering their different control capacities.

Methodology

Data from the 2015 dengue outbreak in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, were utilized. The government database provided information on confirmed dengue cases, emergency control measures, and climatic data. The study employed a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to assess the effect of emergency control measures and their time lags on dengue risk.

Principal findings

The findings revealed that in areas with high population density, the absence of emergency measures significantly elevated the risks of dengue. However, implementing emergency measures, especially a higher number, was associated with lower risks. In contrast, in areas with low population density, the risks of dengue were only significantly elevated at the 1st week lag if no emergency control measures were implemented. When emergency activities were carried out, the risks of dengue significantly decreased only for the 1st week lag.

Conclusions

Our findings reveal distinct exposure-lag-response patterns in the associations between emergency control measures and dengue in areas with high and low population density. In regions with a high population density, implementing emergency activities during a significant dengue outbreak is crucial for reducing the risk. Conversely, in areas of low population density, the necessity of applying emergency activities may be less pronounced. The implications of this study on dengue management could provide valuable insights for health authorities dealing with limited resources.

Household immunity and individual risk of infection with dengue virus in a prospective, longitudinal cohort study

Although it is known that household infections drive the transmission of dengue virus (DENV), it is unclear how household composition and the immune status of inhabitants affect the individual risk of infection. Most population-based studies to date have focused on paediatric cohorts because more severe forms of dengue mainly occur in children, and the role of adults in dengue transmission is understudied. Here we analysed data from a multigenerational cohort study of 470 households, comprising 2,860 individuals, in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand, to evaluate risk factors for DENV infection. Using a gradient-boosted regression model trained on annual haemagglutination inhibition antibody titre inputs, we identified 1,049 infections, 90% of which were subclinical. By analysing imputed infections, we found that individual antibody titres, household composition and antibody titres of other members in the same household affect an individual's risk of DENV infection. Those individuals living in households with high average antibody titres, or households with more adults, had a reduced risk of infection. We propose that herd immunity to dengue acts at the household level and may provide insight into the drivers of the recent change in the shifting age distribution of dengue cases in Thailand.

Enrollment of dengue patients in a prospective cohort study in Umphang District, Thailand, during the COVID-19 pandemic: Implications for research and policy

Background and Aims

Dengue is endemic in Thailand and imposes a high burden on the health system and society. We conducted a prospective cohort study in Umphang District, Tak Province, Thailand, to investigate the share of dengue cases with long symptoms and their duration. Here we present the results of the enrollment process during the COVID-19 pandemic with implications and challenges for research and policy.

Methods

In a prospective cohort study conducted in Umphang District, Thailand, we examined the prevalence of persistent symptoms in dengue cases. Clinically diagnosed cases were offered free laboratory testing, We enrolled ambulatory dengue patients regardless of age who were confirmed through a highly sensitive laboratory strategy (positive NS1 and/or IgM), agreed to follow-up visits, and gave informed consent. We used multivariate logistic regressions to assess the probability of clinical dengue being laboratory confirmed. To determine the factors associated with study enrollment, we analyzed the relationship of patient characteristics and month of screening to the likelihood of participation. To identify underrepresented groups, we compared the enrolled cohort to external data sources.

Results

The 150 clinical cases ranged from 1 to 85 years old. Most clinical cases (78%) were confirmed by a positive laboratory test, but only 19% of those confirmed enrolled in the cohort study. Women, who were half as likely to enroll as men, were underrepresented in the cohort.

Conclusions

The Thai physicians' clinical diagnoses at this rural district hospital had good agreement with laboratory diagnoses. By identifying underrepresented groups and disparities, future studies can ensure the creation of statistically representative cohorts to maximize their scientific value. This involves recruiting and retaining underrepresented groups in health research, such as women in this study. Promising strategies for meaningful inclusion include multi-site enrollment, offering in-home or virtual services, and providing in-kind benefits like childcare for underrepresented groups.

Dengue transmission dynamics prediction by combining metapopulation networks and Kalman filter algorithm

Predicting the specific magnitude and the temporal peak of the epidemic of individual local outbreaks is critical for infectious disease control. Previous studies have indicated that significant differences in spatial transmission and epidemic magnitude of dengue were influenced by multiple factors, such as mosquito population density, climatic conditions, and population movement patterns. However, there is a lack of studies that combine the above factors to explain their complex nonlinear relationships in dengue transmission and generate accurate predictions. Therefore, to study the complex spatial diffusion of dengue, this research combined the above factors and developed a network model for spatiotemporal transmission prediction of dengue fever using metapopulation networks based on human mobility. For improving the prediction accuracy of the epidemic model, the ensemble adjusted Kalman filter (EAKF), a data assimilation algorithm, was used to iteratively assimilate the observed case data and adjust the model and parameters. Our study demonstrated that the metapopulation network-EAKF system provided accurate predictions for city-level dengue transmission trajectories in retrospective forecasts of 12 cities in Guangdong province, China. Specifically, the system accurately predicts local dengue outbreak magnitude and the temporal peak of the epidemic up to 10 wk in advance. In addition, the system predicted the peak time, peak intensity, and total number of dengue cases more accurately than isolated city-specific forecasts. The general metapopulation assimilation framework presented in our study provides a methodological foundation for establishing an accurate system with finer temporal and spatial resolution for retrospectively forecasting the magnitude and temporal peak of dengue fever outbreaks. These forecasts based on the proposed method can be interoperated to better support intervention decisions and inform the public of potential risks of disease transmission.

Epidemiological and genomic analysis of dengue cases in Guangzhou, China, from 2010 to 2019

With a long epidemic history and a large number of dengue cases, Guangzhou is a key city for controlling dengue in China. The demographic information regarding dengue cases, and the genomic characteristics of the envelope gene of dengue viruses, as well as the associations between these factors were investigated from 2010 to 2019, to improve the understanding of the epidemiology of dengue in Guangzhou. Demographic data on 44,385 dengue cases reported to the Notifiable Infectious Disease Report System were analyzed using IBM SPSS Statistics v. 20. Dengue virus isolates from patient sera were sequenced, and phylogenetic trees were constructed using PhyML 3.1. There was no statistical difference in the risk of dengue infection between males and females. Unlike other areas in which dengue is endemic, the infection risk in Guangzhou increased with age. Surveillance identified four serotypes responsible for dengue infections in Guangzhou. Serotype 1 remained prevalent for most of the study period, whereas serotypes 3 and 4 were prevalent in 2012 and 2010, respectively. Different serotypes underwent genotype and sublineage shifts. The epidemiological characteristics and phylogeny of dengue in Guangzhou suggested that although it has circulated in Guangzhou for decades, it has not been endemic in Guangzhou. Meanwhile, shifts in genotypes, rather than in serotypes, might have caused dengue epidemics in Guangzhou.

The expression of circulating hsa-miR-126-3p in dengue-infected Thai pediatric patients

Circulating hsa-miRNA-126 (CmiR-126) has been reported to involve in the pathogenesis of many infectious diseases including dengue virus infection. However, no prior study has been conducted to describe more details in dengue-infected pediatric patients. This study aimed to describe CmiR-126-3p in dengue-infected pediatric patients during the febrile and convalescent phases. Additionally, the correlations between CmiR-126-3p and other relevant clinical laboratory factors were investigated. Sixty paired-serum specimens collected during febrile and convalescent phases were retrieved from patients with dengue fever (DF) (n = 30) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) (n = 30). Thirty paired-serum specimens collected from non-dengue acute febrile illness patients (AFI) were included as the control group. CmiR-126-3p was determined using reverse transcription quantitative real-time polymerase-chain reaction (RT-qPCR). Relative miRNA expression was calculated as 2^-ΔCt using CmiR-16-5p for data normalization. CmiR-126-3p expression during febrile and convalescent phases in dengue-infected patients was significantly lower than AFI (p < 0.05). However, miRNA levels were not different (p > 0.05) compared between DF and DHF and between primary and secondary infection. CmiR-126-3p levels in DF in the convalescent were significantly higher than in the febrile phase (p = 0.025). No association between CmiR-126-3p and hematocrit, WBC level, platelet count, WBC differential count or dengue viral load was observed (p > 0.05). The data suggest that hsa-miR-126-3p involved in pathogenesis of dengue infection and may be a promising early and late biomarker for DENV infection. However, hsa-miR-126-3p alone cannot be used as a predictor for dengue severity.

Scaffold identification and drug repurposing for finding potential Dengue envelope inhibitors through ligand-based pharmacophore model

Most of the existing DENV entry inhibitors were discovered through structure-based, high-throughput screening techniques and optimization approaches by aiming β-OG pocket. However, the class of precise chemical scaffolds with superior antiviral activity targeting the early stages of virus infection that is considered to be beneficial in therapeutics and is still in process. In this study, ligand-based pharmacophore modeling using existing DENV entry inhibitors provided two best models, AADRR-2 and AAADR-2 (A- accepter, D- donor, R-ring) to screen public and DrugBank datasets. Further, approximately 36000 molecules were filtered using Zinc13 by employing the ideal validated models. Additionally, using β-OG binding pocket as target site, molecular docking experiments including induced-fit studies were conducted that provided further structurally divergent ligands. Moreover, the refined list of preferential hits were filtered out based on the best fitness score, binding energy and interaction paradigm, among them fused pyrimidine, hydrazone and biphenyl core comprising scaffolds were identified possessing profound interaction profile with key amino acid residues, ALA-50, GLN-200, PHE-193 and PHE-279 in 100 ns MD simulations. Additionally, the search for similar chemical fingerprints from DrugBank library was also carried out and Eltrombopag (Promacta/Revolade® prescribed in thrombocytopenia) was identified as a preferential β-OG pocket binder. The identified pyrazole-based hydrazone class of drug, Eltrombopag is in phase II clinical trials employed to treat dengue-mediated thrombocytopenia.Communicated by Ramaswamy H. Sarma.

A Six Years (2010-2016) Longitudinal Survey of the Four Serotypes of Dengue Viruses in Lao PDR

Dengue fever is the most prevalent arthropod-borne viral infection of humans in tropical and subtropical countries. Since 1979, dengue has been reported to be endemic in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR), as in many countries in Southeast Asia, with a complex circulation of the four dengue viruses' serotypes (DENV-1 to DENV-4). By sequencing the complete envelope protein, we explored a panel of samples from five Lao Provinces (Vientiane capital, Luangprabang, Bolikhamxay, Saravane, Attapeu) to enrich knowledge about the co-circulation of DENVs in Lao PDR between 2010 and 2016. Phylogenetic analyses highlighted the specific circulation of DENV-1 genotype I, DENV-2 genotype Asian I, DENV-4 genotype I and the co-circulation of DENV-3 genotype II and III. The continuous co-circulation of the four serotypes was underlined, with genotype or cluster shifts among DENV-3 and DENV-1. These data suggested the emergence or re-emergence of DENV strains associated with epidemic events, potentially linked to the exchanges within the territory and with neighboring countries. Indeed, the increasing local or regional connections favored the dissemination of new isolates or new clusters around the country. Since 2012, the surveillance and alert system created in Vientiane capital by the Institut Pasteur du Laos appears to be a strategic tool for monitoring the circulation of the four serotypes, especially in this endemic country, and allows for improving dengue epidemiological knowledge to anticipate epidemic events better.

Genomic Characterization of Dengue Virus Outbreak in 2022 from Pakistan

Pakistan, a dengue-endemic country, has encountered several outbreaks during the past decade. The current study aimed to explore the serotype and genomic diversity of dengue virus responsible for the 2022 outbreak in Pakistan. From August to October 2022, NS-1 positive blood samples (n = 343) were collected from dengue patients, among which, (85%; n = 293) were positive based on RT-PCR. In terms of gender and age, dengue infection was more prevalent in male patients (63%; n = 184), with more adults (21-30 years; n = 94) being infected. The serotyping results revealed DENV-2 to be the most predominant serotype (62%; n = 183), followed by DENV-1 (37%; n = 109) and DENV-3 (0.32%; n = 1). Moreover, a total of 10 samples (DENV-2; n = 8, DENV-1; n = 2) were subjected to whole-genome sequencing. Among these, four were collected in early 2022, and six were collected between August and October 2022. Phylogenetic analysis of DENV-2 sequenced samples (n = 8) revealed a monophyletic clade of cosmopolitan genotype IVA, which is closely related to sequences from China and Singapore 2018, and DENV-1 samples (n = 2) show genotype III, which is closely related to Pakistan isolates from 2019. We also reported the first whole genome sequence of a coinfection case (DENV1-DENV2) in Pakistan detected through a meta-genome approach. Thus, dengue virus dynamics reported in the current study warrant large-scale genomic surveillance to better respond to future outbreaks.

Epidemiology and costs of dengue in Thailand: A systematic literature review

BACKGROUND

Dengue is the fastest-spreading vector-borne viral disease worldwide. In Thailand, dengue is endemic and is associated with a high socioeconomic burden. A systematic literature review was conducted to assess and describe the epidemiological and economic burden of dengue in Thailand.

METHODS

Epidemiological and economic studies published in English and Thai between 2011-2019 and 2009-2019, respectively, were searched in MEDLINE, Embase, and Evidence-Based Medicines reviews databases. Reports published by the National Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) and other grey literature sources were also reviewed. Identified studies were screened according to predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Extracted data were descriptively summarised and reported following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines.

RESULTS

A total of 155 publications were included in the review (39 journal articles and 116 grey literature). Overall, dengue incidence varied yearly, with the highest rates per 100,000 population in 2013 (dengue fever (DF) 136.6, dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) 100.9, dengue shock syndrome (DSS) 3.58) and 2015 (DF 133.1, DHF 87.4, DSS 2.14). Peak incidence coincided with the monsoon season, and annual mortality was highest for DSS, particularly in the age group 15-24-year-olds. The highest dengue incidence rates were reported in children (10-14-year-olds) and young adults (15-24-year-olds), irrespective of dengue case definition. Economic and societal burdens are extensive, with the average cost per case ranging from USD 41 to USD 261, total cost per year estimated at USD 440.3 million, and an average of 7.6 workdays lost for DHF and 6.6 days for DF.

CONCLUSIONS

The epidemiological, economic, and societal burden of dengue in Thailand is high and underreported due to gaps in national surveillance data. The use of expansion factors (EFs) is recommended to understand the true incidence of dengue and cost-benefit of control measures. Furthermore, as dengue is often self-managed and underreported, lost school and workdays result in substantial underestimation of the true economic and societal burden of dengue. The implementation of integrated strategies, including vaccination, is critical to reduce the disease burden and may help alleviate health disparities and equity challenges posed by dengue.

Neighboring mutation-mediated enhancement of dengue virus infectivity and spread

Frequent turnover of dengue virus (DENV) clades is one of the major forces driving DENV persistence and prevalence. In this study, we assess the fitness advantage of nine stable substitutions within the envelope (E) protein of DENV serotypes. Two tandem neighboring substitutions, threonine to lysine at the 226th (T226K) and glycine to glutamic acid at the 228th (G228E) residues in the DENV2 Asian I genotype, enhance virus infectivity in either mosquitoes or mammalian hosts, thereby promoting clades turnover and dengue epidemics. Mechanistic studies indicate that the substitution-mediated polarity changes in these two residues increase the binding affinity of E for host C-type lectins. Accordingly, we predict that a G228E substitution could potentially result in a forthcoming epidemic of the DENV2 Cosmopolitan genotype. Investigations into the substitutions associated with DENV fitness in hosts may offer mechanistic insights into dengue prevalence, thus providing a warning of potential epidemics in the future.

Dengue infection triggered immune mediated necrotizing myopathy in children: a case report and literature review

BACKGROUND

Immune-mediated necrotizing myopathy (IMNM) is a subgroup of idiopathic inflammatory myopathies manifesting with progressive weakness, elevated serum creatine kinase (CK) levels, and necrotizing myopathic features on muscle biopsy. There is a paucity of data on the clinical presentation of IMNM in children. We report a paediatric patient who developed anti-3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-CoA reductase (anti-HMGCR)-positive necrotizing myopathy after recent dengue infection.

CASE PRESENTATION

A previously healthy 9-year-old boy presented with acute proximal muscle weakness after recovery from dengue infection. Five days after the fever subsided, he could not stand from a squatting position. He denied having skin rash, arthritis, or other systemic features. He had marked elevation of CK level of 30,833 mg/dL and was put on steroid therapy. The patient initially responded to oral prednisolone, however the weakness persisted and muscle enzymes increased as steroids were decreased. He was then referred to our hospital for further assessment. Subsequent investigation revealed anti-HMGCR positivity along with specific histopathological findings consistent with IMNM. The patient was treated with six cycles of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) monthly, then followed by a gradual taper of prednisolone and oral methotrexate weekly with complete recovery in motor power.

CONCLUSIONS

Our report presents a child with clinical manifestations of IMNM which can be categorized as acute onset of muscle weakness following dengue infection. Two key points supporting a diagnosis in this case are clinical response after immunosuppressive therapy and absence of rashes found in juvenile dermatomyositis.

Treatment-Seeking Behaviors and Knowledge, Attitude and Practices among Suspected Dengue Adult Patients at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Bangkok, Thailand

Dengue infection is a major public health problem in Thailand with an increasing incidence in the adult population. Patients’ knowledge, attitude and practices (KAP) with regarding dengue infection have direct influences on treatment-seeking behaviors and clinical outcomes. We conducted a cross-sectional study to assess the KAP and treatment-seeking behaviors of suspected dengue adult patients attending the Hospital for Tropical Diseases (HTD) in Bangkok, from March 2014 to February 2015. Among 167 participants, the majority of participants (87.9%) were unaware of dengue infection and most of them reported initial self-medication (95.2%). The mean days of fever before attending to the HTD was 4.9 ± 1.7 days. Outpatient cases reported seeking care significantly earlier than inpatient cases (mean: 3.1 days vs. 5.0 days; p < 0.001). The majority of patients believed that dengue infection has a high mortality rate (63%) and must be treated in hospital (91.3%), highlighting the lack of understanding and misperceptions regarding dengue-related knowledge in the general population. Patients who reported recent or current dengue infection in their family or neighborhood sought medical care early and reported good preventive practices. Health education should focus on the adult population to improve awareness of dengue symptoms and promote early treatment-seeking behavior.

Assessing the role of multiple mechanisms increasing the age of dengue cases in Thailand

The age of reported dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases, the severe form of dengue infections, has been increasing in Thailand for four decades. Factors underlying this shift remain poorly understood, challenging public health planning. Here, we found aging of the population and its effect on the hazard of transmission to be the dominant contributors, with temporal changes in surveillance practices playing a lesser role. With ongoing population aging, we expect a continuing shift of DHF toward older individuals, heightening the chance of clinical complications with comorbidities. With most other highly endemic countries facing similar shifts in age structure, the pattern is expected to appear elsewhere. Awareness is needed to improve diagnosis and treatment.

The mean age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases increased considerably in Thailand from 8.1 to 24.3 y between 1981 and 2017 (mean annual increase of 0.45 y). Alternative proposed explanations for this trend, such as changes in surveillance practices, reduced mosquito–human contact, and shifts in population demographics, have different implications for global dengue epidemiology. To evaluate the contribution of each of these hypothesized mechanisms to the observed data, we developed 20 nested epidemiological models of dengue virus infection, allowing for variation over time in population demographics, infection hazards, and reporting rates. We also quantified the effect of removing or retaining each source of variation in simulations of the age trajectory. Shifts in the age structure of susceptibility explained 58% of the observed change in age. Adding heterogeneous reporting by age and reductions in per-serotype infection hazard to models with shifts in susceptibility explained an additional 42%. Reductions in infection hazards were mostly driven by changes in the number of infectious individuals at any time (another consequence of shifting age demographics) rather than changes in the transmissibility of individual infections. We conclude that the demographic transition drives the overwhelming majority of the observed change as it changes both the age structure of susceptibility and the number of infectious individuals. With the projected Thai population age structure, our results suggest a continuing increase in age of DHF cases, shifting the burden toward individuals with more comorbidity. These insights into dengue epidemiology may be relevant to many regions of the globe currently undergoing comparable changes in population demographics.

Behavioral-biological surveillance of emerging infectious diseases among a dynamic cohort in Thailand

Background

Interactions between humans and animals are the key elements of zoonotic spillover leading to zoonotic disease emergence. Research to understand the high-risk behaviors associated with disease transmission at the human-animal interface is limited, and few consider regional and local contexts.

Objective

This study employed an integrated behavioral–biological surveillance approach for the early detection of novel and known zoonotic viruses in potentially high-risk populations, in an effort to identify risk factors for spillover and to determine potential foci for risk-mitigation measures.

Method

Participants were enrolled at two community-based sites (n = 472) in eastern and western Thailand and two hospital (clinical) sites (n = 206) in northeastern and central Thailand. A behavioral questionnaire was administered to understand participants’ demographics, living conditions, health history, and animal-contact behaviors and attitudes. Biological specimens were tested for coronaviruses, filoviruses, flaviviruses, influenza viruses, and paramyxoviruses using pan (consensus) RNA Virus assays.

Results

Overall 61/678 (9%) of participants tested positive for the viral families screened which included influenza viruses (75%), paramyxoviruses (15%), human coronaviruses (3%), flaviviruses (3%), and enteroviruses (3%). The most salient predictors of reporting unusual symptoms (i.e., any illness or sickness that is not known or recognized in the community or diagnosed by medical providers) in the past year were having other household members who had unusual symptoms and being scratched or bitten by animals in the same year. Many participants reported raising and handling poultry (10.3% and 24.2%), swine (2%, 14.6%), and cattle (4.9%, 7.8%) and several participants also reported eating raw or undercooked meat of these animals (2.2%, 5.5%, 10.3% respectively). Twenty four participants (3.5%) reported handling bats or having bats in the house roof. Gender, age, and livelihood activities were shown to be significantly associated with participants’ interactions with animals. Participants’ knowledge of risks influenced their health-seeking behavior.

Conclusion

The results suggest that there is a high level of interaction between humans, livestock, and wild animals in communities at sites we investigated in Thailand. This study highlights important differences among demographic and occupational risk factors as they relate to animal contact and zoonotic disease risk, which can be used by policymakers and local public health programs to build more effective surveillance strategies and behavior-focused interventions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07439-7.

A cross-sectional survey to evaluate prescribers' knowledge and understanding of safety messages following Dengvaxia® product information update

Purpose

We evaluated the effectiveness of additional risk minimisation measures (aRMMs; i.e., educational materials) distributed to prescribers to ensure that only individuals with evidence of prior dengue infection (PDI, i.e., dengue seropositive) would be vaccinated with the tetravalent dengue vaccine (CYD‐TDV; Dengvaxia®).

Methods

A survey was conducted in 2020 among 300 CYD‐TDV prescribers in Brazil and Thailand to ascertain three success criteria: prescribers' awareness of the materials (receiving and reading them); knowledge of the key messages; and whether their self‐reported behaviour regarding practice‐related scenarios was aligned with the updated guidance.

Results

The aRMMs were not generally effective as <80% of prescribers in both countries met two of the three predefined success criteria. In Brazil, 98.7% were aware of the aRMMs whereas in Thailand this criterion was fulfilled by 74.0%. Almost all prescribers knew that CYD‐TDV was recommended only in individuals with PDI (98.7% and 96.7% in Brazil and Thailand, respectively). In Brazil, where vaccination was restricted to those with a documented history of PDI, 11.3% considered that confirmation should be done through a blood test. More than 75% in both countries considered additional signs of dengue, as early warning signs, and not only those regarded as such by the 2009 WHO guidelines.

Conclusions

These results do not support that the aRMMs were effective as the predefined success criteria were not met. The use of reliable rapid diagnosis tests together with the revised prescribing information and educational materials will facilitate the implementation and compliance with pre‐vaccination screening for CYD‐TDV eligibility.

Smartphone multiplex microcapillary diagnostics using Cygnus: Development and evaluation of rapid serotype-specific NS1 detection with dengue patient samples

Laboratory diagnosis of dengue virus (DENV) infection including DENV serotyping requires skilled labor and well-equipped settings. DENV NS1 lateral flow rapid test (LFT) provides simplicity but lacks ability to identify serotype. A simple, economical, point-of-care device for serotyping is still needed. We present a gravity driven, smartphone compatible, microfluidic device using microcapillary film (MCF) to perform multiplex serotype-specific immunoassay detection of dengue virus NS1. A novel device-termed Cygnus-with a stackable design allows analysis of 1 to 12 samples in parallel in 40 minutes. A sandwich enzyme immunoassay was developed to specifically detect NS1 of all four DENV serotypes in one 60-μl plasma sample. This test aims to bridge the gap between rapid LFT and laboratory microplate ELISAs in terms of sensitivity, usability, accessibility and speed. The Cygnus NS1 assay was evaluated with retrospective undiluted plasma samples from 205 DENV infected patients alongside 50 febrile illness negative controls. Against the gold standard RT-PCR, clinical sensitivity for Cygnus was 82% in overall (with 78, 78, 80 and 76% for DENV1-4, respectively), comparable to an in-house serotyping NS1 microplate ELISA (82% vs 83%) but superior to commercial NS1-LFT (82% vs 74%). Specificity of the Cygnus device was 86%, lower than that of NS1-microplate ELISA and NS1-LFT (100% and 98%, respectively). For Cygnus positive samples, identification of DENV serotypes DENV2-4 matched those by RT-PCR by 100%, but for DENV1 capillaries false positives were seen, suggesting an improved DENV1 capture antibody is needed to increase specificity. Overall performance of Cygnus showed substantial agreement to NS1-microplate ELISA (κ = 0.68, 95%CI 0.58-0.77) and NS1-LFT (κ = 0.71, 95%CI 0.63-0.80). Although further refinement for DENV-1 NS1 detection is needed, the advantages of multiplexing and rapid processing time, this Cygnus device could deliver point-of-care NS1 antigen testing including serotyping for timely DENV diagnosis for epidemic surveillance and outbreak prediction.

Dengue virus seroprevalence study in Bangphae district, Ratchaburi, Thailand: A cohort study in 2012-2015

Background

To determine the seroprevalence and transmission dynamics of dengue virus (DENV), age-stratified longitudinal serological surveys were conducted in Bangphae district, Ratchaburi province, Thailand, for 3 years between April 2012 and April 2015.

Methodology

The surveys enrolled 2012 healthy children and adults between 1 and 55 years-of-age, and a longitudinal serosurvey of six repeated bleeds of the same cohort of individuals was conducted every 8 months for the first 2 years (M0, M8, M16) and every half a year (M24, M30, M36) for the rest of the study period. All samples were tested using in-house indirect sandwich dengue IgG ELISA to determine DENV antibody titer, and 640 paired samples which showed rising of DENV IgG titers in paired serum were further tested using in-house neutralization assay, Plaque Reduction Neutralization Test (PRNT₅₀).

Principal findings

When compared against the gold standard based on the results of PRNT₅₀, sensitivity and specificity of indirect ELISA were found to be both about 85%. The overall DENV IgG positivity determined by ELISA was 74.3% in 2012 and increased to 79.4% by the final sample collection in 2015. In our study sample, more than 98% of subjects older than 25 years were found to be seropositive. Among 518 IgG negative subjects at enrollment, the seroconversion rates were measured in paired bleeds; the rates (between successive visits, approximately 6 months) ranged between 4.8% (between M16 and M24) and 14.7% (between M0 and M8). The dominant serotype of primary DENV infection cases based on seroconversion was identified from the PRNT results and it was DENV-2.

Conclusions

Our study documented high levels of seroprevalence and rate of transmission. Given the importance of the serostatus and disease burden in consideration for dengue vaccine introduction, our data could be used in decision-making on implementation of various dengue control and preventive measures.

To estimate the proportion of individuals with past exposure to dengue virus (DENV), we conducted repeated serological surveys in Bangphae district, Ratchaburi province, Thailand, between April 2012 and April 2015. About 45% of the subjects were under 15 years-of-age. The surveys enrolled 2012 healthy individuals between 1 and 55 years-of-age, and a longitudinal serosurvey of six repeated bleeds of the same cohort of individuals was conducted approximately every 6 months. All samples were tested using an indirect dengue IgG ELISA and a subset of paired samples which showed rising of IgG values in pairs were tested using neutralization assay, used as the gold standard. When compared against the gold standard, sensitivity and specificity of indirect ELISA were found to be both 85%. The proportion of the study population with past DENV infection measured by IgG ELISA was 74.3% in 2012 and increased to 79.4% by 2015. More than 98% of subjects older than 25 years showed to have past exposure to dengue. Among 518 subjects without past exposure, the rate of getting infection was between 4.8–14.7% (between successive visits, approximately 6 months). The dominant serotype was DENV-2. The level of proportion of individuals with past DENV infection is an important consideration, and our data could be used in decision-making for dengue vaccine introduction.

Influence of climate variables on dengue fever occurrence in the southern region of Thailand

The 3-5year epidemic cycle of dengue fever in Thailand makes it a major re-emerging public health problem resulting in being a burden in endemic areas. Although the Thai Ministry of Public Health adopted the WHO dengue control strategy, all dengue virus serotypes continue to circulate. Health officers and village health volunteers implement some intervention options but there is a need to ascertain most appropriate (or a combination of) interventions regarding the environment and contextual factors that may undermine the effectiveness of such interventions. This study aims to understand the dengue-climate relationship patterns at the district level in the southern region of Thailand from 2002 to 2018 by examining the statistical association between dengue incidence rate and eight environmental patterns, testing the hypothesis of equal incidence of these. Data on environmental variables and dengue reported cases in Nakhon Si Thammarat province situated in the south of Thailand from 2002 to 2018 were analysed to (1) detect the environmental factors that affect the risk of dengue infectious disease; to (2) determine if disease risk is increasing or decreasing over time; and to (3) identify the high-risk district areas for dengue cases that need to be targeted for interventions. To identify the predictors that have a high and significant impact on reported dengue infection, three steps of analysis were used. First, we used Partial Least Squares (PLS) Regression and Poisson Regression, a variant of the Generalized Linear Model (GLM). Negative co-efficient in correspondence with the PLS components suggests that sea-level pressure, wind speed, and pan evaporation are associated with dengue occurrence rate, while other variables were positively associated. Using the Akaike information criterion in the stepwise GLM, the filtered predictors were temperature, precipitation, cloudiness, and sea level pressure with the standardized coefficients showing that the most influential variable is cloud cover (three times more than temperature and precipitation). Also, dengue occurrence showed a constant negative response to the average increase in sea-level pressure values. In southern Thailand, the predictors that have been locally determined to drive dengue occurrence are temperature, rainfall, cloud cover, and sea-level pressure. These explanatory variables should have important future implications for epidemiological studies of mosquito-borne diseases, particularly at the district level. Predictive indicators guide effective and dynamic risk assessments, targeting pre-emptive interventions.

Global burden for dengue and the evolving pattern in the past 30 years

BACKGROUND

Dengue is the most prevalent and rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral disease. We present the global, regional and national burden of dengue from 1990 to 2019 based on the findings from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019).

METHODS

Based upon GBD 2019 dengue data on age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate, this study estimates and presents annual percentage change (EAPC) to quantify trends over time to assess potential correlates of increased dengue activity, such as global travel and warming.

RESULTS

Globally from 1990 to 2019, dengue incident cases, deaths and DALYs gradually increased. Those under 5 years of age, once accounting for the largest portion of deaths and DALYs in 1990, were eclipsed by those who were 15-49 years old in 2019. Age standardized incidence [ASIR: EAPC: 3.16, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.90-3.43], death (ASDR: EAPC: 5.42, 95% CI: 2.64-8.28) and DALY rates (EAPC: 2.31, 95% CI: 2.00-2.62) accelerated most among high-middle and high sociodemographic index (SDI) regions. South-East Asia and South Asia had most of the dengue incident cases, deaths and DALYs, but East Asia had the fastest rise in ASIR (EAPC: 4.57, 95% CI: 4.31, 4.82), while Tropical Latin America led in ASDR (EAPC: 11.32, 95% CI: 9.11, 13.58) and age-standardized DALYs rate (EAPC: 4.13, 95% CI: 2.98, 5.29). SDI showed consistent bell-shaped relationship with ASIR, ASDR and age-standardized DALYs rate. Global land-ocean temperature index and air passenger travel metrics were found to be remarkably positively correlated with dengue burden.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of dengue has become heavier from 1990 to 2019, amidst the three decades of urbanization, warming climates and increased human mobility in much of the world. South-East Asia and South Asia remain as regions of concern, especially in conjunction with the Americas' swift rise in dengue burden.

Factors associated with severe dengue in Savannakhet Province, Lao People's Democratic Republic

This study aimed to describe the socio-demographic and clinical characteristics of dengue inpatients at a provincial hospital, and to identify factors associated with severe dengue. This is a retrospective study involving 402 dengue patients admitted to the Savannakhet Provincial Hospital, Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), between January 2018 and April 2019. Socio-demographic factors, clinical signs and laboratory data on admission, final diagnosis, use of health care services before admission, admission date, and hospitalization period were collected from patient records. The number of dengue inpatients was higher in the rainy season than in the dry season. Of the 402 patients, 205 patients (51.0%) were finally diagnosed with severe dengue. Children aged <15 years had more symptoms, higher proportion of severe dengue (69.8% vs. 35.9%), and longer hospitalization (3.5 days vs. 3.0 days) than adults aged ≥15 years. In multivariable analyses, factors associated with severe dengue were nausea on admission (adjusted odds ratio=3.57, 95% CI=1.05-12.09, P=0.04) in children and persistent vomiting on admission (adjusted odds ratio=3.82, 95% CI=1.23-11.92, P=0.02) in adults. In adults, the creatinine level on admission was significantly higher in patients with a final diagnosis of severe dengue compared to the others. The proportion of severe dengue in our study was higher than that in other countries. Nausea and persistent vomiting on admission were suggested to be predictive factors for severe dengue. To reduce the incidence of severe dengue in Lao PDR, improvements in access to health care, referral system, and training of health care workers are needed.

Dengue models based on machine learning techniques: A systematic literature review

BACKGROUND

Dengue modeling is a research topic that has increased in recent years. Early prediction and decision-making are key factors to control dengue. This Systematic Literature Review (SLR) analyzes three modeling approaches of dengue: diagnostic, epidemic, intervention. These approaches require models of prediction, prescription and optimization. This SLR establishes the state-of-the-art in dengue modeling, using machine learning, in the last years.

METHODS

Several databases were selected to search the articles. The selection was made based on Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology. Sixty-four articles were obtained and analyzed to describe their strengths and limitations. Finally, challenges and opportunities for research on machine-learning for dengue modeling were identified.

RESULTS

Logistic regression was the most used modeling approach for the diagnosis of dengue (59.1%). The analysis of the epidemic approach showed that linear regression (17.4%) is the most used technique within the spatial analysis. Finally, the most used intervention modeling is General Linear Model with 70%.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that cause-effect models may improve diagnosis and understanding of dengue. Models that manage uncertainty can also be helpful, because of low data-quality in healthcare. Finally, decentralization of data, using federated learning, may decrease computational costs and allow model building without compromising data security.

Dengue virus in humans and mosquitoes and their molecular characteristics in northeastern Thailand 2016-2018

Dengue is hyperendemic in most Southeast Asian countries including Thailand, where all four dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1 to -4) have circulated over different periods and regions. Despite dengue cases being annually reported in all regions of Thailand, there is limited data on the relationship of epidemic DENV infection between humans and mosquitoes, and about the dynamics of DENV during outbreaks in the northeastern region. The present study was conducted in this region to investigate the molecular epidemiology of DENV and explore the relationships of DENV infection in humans and in mosquitoes during 2016–2018. A total of 292 dengue suspected patients from 11 hospitals and 902 individual mosquitoes (at patient’s houses and neighboring houses) were recruited and investigated for DENV serotypes infection using PCR. A total of 103 patients and 149 individual mosquitoes were DENV -positive. Among patients, the predominant DENV serotypes in 2016 and 2018 were DENV-4 (74%) and DENV-3 (53%) respectively, whereas in 2017, DENV-1, -3 and -4 had similar prevalence (38%). Additionally, only 19% of DENV infections in humans and mosquitoes at surrounding houses were serotypically matched, while 81% of infections were serotypically mismatched, suggesting that mosquitoes outside the residence may be an important factor of endemic dengue transmission. Phylogenetic analyses based on envelope gene sequences showed the genotype I of both DENV-1 and DENV-4, and co-circulation of the Cosmopolitan and Asian I genotypes of DENV-2. These strains were closely related to concurrent strains in other parts of Thailand and also similar to strains in previous epidemiological profiles in Thailand and elsewhere in Southeast Asia. These findings highlight genomic data of DENV in this region and suggest that people’s movement in urban environments may result in mosquitoes far away from the residential area being key determinants of DENV epidemic dynamics.

Dengue pre-vaccination screening test evaluation for the use of dengue vaccine in an endemic area

Background

The dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia) is only recommended for individuals with prior dengue infection (PDI). This study aimed to perform a serosurvey to inform decision-making for vaccine introduction and identify appropriate target populations. We also evaluated the performance of the serological tests using plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) as a reference test in identifying PDI to determine suitability for pre-vaccination screening.

Methods

We enrolled 115 healthy individuals between 10 and 22 years of age living in the Ratchaburi province of Thailand. The serum samples were tested by PRNT to measure the prevalence and concentration of serotype-specific neutralizing antibodies. The performance of the IgG rapid diagnostic test (RDT, SD Bioline, Korea) and IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA, EUROIMMUN, Germany) in identifying PDI were evaluated by using PRNT as a reference method.

Results

Ninety-four (81.7%) individuals neutralized one or more dengue serotypes at a titer threshold greater than or equal to 10. Multitypic profiles were observed in 70.4% of the samples which increased to 91.9% in subjects aged 19–22. Among monotypic samples, the highest proportion was reactive against DENV-1 followed by DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4. The highest anti-dengue antibody titers were recorded against DENV-1 and increased with age to a geometric mean NT50 titer (GMT) of 188.6 in the 19–22 age group. While both RDT and ELISA exhibited 100% specificity, RDT demonstrated low sensitivity (35%) with ELISA displaying much greater sensitivity (87%).

Conclusions

Almost 80% of adolescents and youth in Ratchaburi province had already been exposed to one or more of the dengue virus serotypes. The dengue IgG RDT displayed low sensitivity and is likely not be suitable for dengue pre-vaccination screening. These results support the use of IgG ELISA test for dengue vaccination in endemic areas.

Development and Comparison of Dengue Vulnerability Indices Using GIS-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in Lao PDR and Thailand

Dengue is a continuous health burden in Laos and Thailand. We assessed and mapped dengue vulnerability in selected provinces of Laos and Thailand using multi-criteria decision approaches. An ecohealth framework was used to develop dengue vulnerability indices (DVIs) that explain links between population, social and physical environments, and health to identify exposure, susceptibility, and adaptive capacity indicators. Three DVIs were constructed using two objective approaches, Shannon's Entropy (SE) and the Water-Associated Disease Index (WADI), and one subjective approach, the Best-Worst Method (BWM). Each DVI was validated by correlating the index score with dengue incidence for each spatial unit (district and subdistrict) over time. A Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) larger than 0.5 and a p-value less than 0.05 implied a good spatial and temporal performance. Spatially, DVIWADI was significantly correlated on average in 19% (4-40%) of districts in Laos (mean r = 0.5) and 27% (15-53%) of subdistricts in Thailand (mean r = 0.85). The DVISE was validated in 22% (12-40%) of districts in Laos and in 13% (3-38%) of subdistricts in Thailand. The DVIBWM was only developed for Laos because of lack of data in Thailand and was significantly associated with dengue incidence on average in 14% (0-28%) of Lao districts. The DVIWADI indicated high vulnerability in urban centers and in areas with plantations and forests. In 2019, high DVIWADI values were observed in sparsely populated areas due to elevated exposure, possibly from changes in climate and land cover, including urbanization, plantations, and dam construction. Of the three indices, DVIWADI was the most suitable vulnerability index for the study area. The DVIWADI can also be applied to other water-associated diseases, such as Zika and chikungunya, to highlight priority areas for further investigation and as a tool for prevention and interventions.

Seroprevalence of Flavivirus Neutralizing Antibodies in Thailand by High-Throughput Neutralization Assay: Endemic Circulation of Zika Virus before 2012

Thailand is a hyperendemic country for flavivirus infections in Southeast Asia. Although the reporting system for flavivirus surveillance in Thailand is well established, syndromic surveillance tends to underestimate the true epidemiological status of flaviviruses due to the majority of infections being asymptomatic. To accurately understand the prevalence of flaviviruses in endemic regions, we performed neutralization tests against multiple flaviviruses using 147 serum samples from healthy donors collected from four distinct regions in Thailand. Single-round infectious particles (SRIP) for six flaviviruses, dengue virus types 1 to 4 (DENV-1 to -4), Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), and Zika virus (ZIKV), were used as antigens for developing a safe, high-throughput neutralization assay. Titers of neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) against the six flaviviruses revealed that DENV-1 and DENV-2, followed by ZIKV were the predominant circulating flaviviruses in a total of four regions, whereas the prevalence of NAbs against JEV varied among regions. Although the seroprevalence of ZIKV was low relative to that of DENV-1 and DENV-2, the findings strongly suggested that ZIKV has been circulating at a sustained level in Thailand since before 2012. These findings not only demonstrated the application of an SRIP-neutralization test in a serological study, but also elucidated the circulation and distribution trends of different flaviviruses in Thailand. IMPORTANCE Neutralization tests are the most reliable assay for flavivirus antibody detection; however, these assays are not suitable for high-throughput processing due to their time-consuming and labor-intensive nature. In this study, we developed single-round infectious particles (SRIPs) with a luciferase gene for dengue virus types 1 to 4, Japanese encephalitis virus, and Zika virus for use in a safe, high-throughput neutralization assay. We performed neutralization tests against multiple flaviviruses using 147 serum samples that were collected from healthy donors residing in four distinct regions of Thailand in 2011 to 2012. The assay was useful for surveys of flavivirus seroprevalence. The data revealed that dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1) and DENV-2 were the predominant circulating flaviviruses in Thailand and that Zika virus has been circulating at a sustained level in Thailand since before 2012.

Epidemiology and challenges of dengue surveillance in the WHO South-East Asia Region

Dengue poses a significant health and economic burden in the WHO South-East Asia Region. Approaches for control need to be aligned with current knowledge on the epidemiology of dengue in the region. Such knowledge will ensure improved targeting of interventions to reduce dengue incidence and its socioeconomic impact. This review was undertaken to describe the contemporary epidemiology of dengue and critically analyse the existing surveillance strategies in the region. Over recent decades, dengue incidence has continued to increase with geographical expansion. The region has now become hyper-endemic for multiple dengue virus serotypes/genotypes. Every epidemic cycle was associated with a change of predominant serotype/genotype and this was often associated with severe disease with intense transmission. Classical larval indices are widely used in vector surveillance and adult mosquito samplings are not implemented as a part of routine surveillance. Further, there is a lack of integration of entomological and disease surveillance systems, often leading to inaction or delays in dengue prevention and control. Disease surveillance does not capture all cases, resulting in under-reporting, and has thus failed to adequately represent the true burden of disease in the region. Possible solutions include incorporating adult mosquito sampling into routine vector surveillance, the establishment of laboratory-based sentinel surveillance, integrated vector and dengue disease surveillance and climate-based early warning systems using available technologies like mobile apps.

Correlation between reported dengue illness history and seropositivity in rural Thailand

In the latest World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation for Dengvaxia implementation, either serological testing or a person's history of prior dengue illness may be used as supporting evidence to identify dengue virus (DENV)-immune individuals eligible for vaccination, in areas with limited capacity for laboratory confirmation. This analysis aimed to estimate the concordance between self-reported dengue illness histories and seropositivity in a prospective cohort study for dengue virus infection in Kamphaeng Phet province, a dengue-endemic area in northern Thailand. The study enrolled 2,076 subjects from 516 multigenerational families, with a median age of 30.6 years (range 0-90 years). Individual and family member dengue illness histories were obtained by questionnaire. Seropositivity was defined based on hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) assays. Overall seropositivity for DENV was 86.5% among those aged 9-45 years, which increased with age. 18.5% of participants reported a history of dengue illness prior to enrollment; 30.1% reported a previous DENV infection in the family, and 40.1% reported DENV infection in either themselves or a family member. Relative to seropositivity by HAI in the vaccine candidate group, the sensitivity and specificity of individual prior dengue illness history were 18.5% and 81.6%, respectively; sensitivity and specificity of reported dengue illness in a family member were 29.8% and 68.0%, and of either the individual or a family member were 40.1% and 60.5%. Notably, 13.4% of individuals reporting prior dengue illness were seronegative. Given the high occurrence of asymptomatic and mild DENV infection, self-reported dengue illness history is poorly sensitive for prior exposure and may misclassify individuals as 'exposed' when they were not. This analysis highlights that a simple, highly sensitive, and highly specific test for determining serostatus prior to Dengvaxia vaccination is urgently needed.

Stakeholders' attitudes to outdoor residual spraying technique for dengue control in Malaysia: A PLS-SEM approach

Outdoor Residual Spraying (ORS) technique is a complementary preventive measure for dengue. The alarming number of dengue cases in Malaysia requires an alternative method to control dengue besides the traditional method such as fogging. However, the introduction of new technologies depends on social acceptance. Therefore, this study was important to determine the factors that influence stakeholders' attitudes towards the ORS and the moderating factor. A validated instrument was used to randomly interview 399 respondents representing two stakeholder groups which consist of scientists, and the public in Klang Valley, Malaysia. The findings revealed that the stakeholders claimed to have a high degree of religiosity, a high level of trust in the key players, perceived ORS as having high benefits, and displayed highly positive attitudes towards the ORS. The attitudes model towards the ORS model was developed using the SmartPLS software version. The perceived benefit was endorsed as the most important direct predictor of attitudes towards the ORS (ß = 0.618, P<0.001), followed by trust in the key players (ß = 0.151, P<0.001). It is also interesting to note that religiosity served as a moderator for the association between perceived benefit (ß = 0.075, P = 0.024) and perceived risk (ß = 0.114, P = 0.006) with attitudes towards the ORS. The identified predictor factors of stakeholders' attitudes toward the ORS and the moderating factor can serve as indicators for social acceptance of ORS in developing countries. These indicators can help the policymakers in decision making to implement this technique.

Clinical and epidemiologic characteristics associated with dengue fever in 2011-2016 in Bang Phae district, Ratchaburi province, Thailand

BACKGROUND

Dengue is a major public health problem in Thailand, but data are often focused on certain dengue-endemic areas. Methods: To better understand dengue epidemiology and clinical characteristics in Thailand, a fever surveillance study was conducted among patients aged 1-55 years, who presented with non-localized febrile illness at Bang Phae Community Hospital in Ratchaburi province, Thailand from October 2011 to September 2016.

RESULTS

Among 951 febrile episodes, 130 were dengue-confirmed. Individuals aged 10-14 years were mostly affected, followed by those 15-19 years-of-age, with about 15% of dengue-confirmed cases from adults 25 years and older. There were annual peaks of dengue occurrence between June-November. Most prevalent serotype in circulation was DENV-2 in 2012, DENV-3 in 2014, and DENV-4 & -3 in 2015. Among dengue cases, 65% were accurately detected using the dengue NS1 RDT. Detection rate was similar between secondary and primary dengue cases where 66% of secondary vs. 60% of primary dengue cases had positive results on the NS1 RDT. Among dengue cases, 66% were clinically diagnosed with suspected dengue or DHF, prior to lab confirmation. Dengue was positively associated with rash, headache, hematemesis and alterations to consciousness, when compared to non-dengue. Dengue patients were 10.6 times more likely to be hospitalized, compared to non-dengue cases. Among dengue cases, 95 were secondary and 35 were primary infections. There were 8 suspected DHF cases and all were identified to be secondary dengue. Secondary dengue cases were 3.5 times more likely to be hospitalized compared to primary dengue cases. Although the majority of our dengue-positive patients were secondary dengue cases, with few patients showing manifestations of DHF, our dengue cases were mostly mild disease. Even among children < 10 years-of-age, 61% had secondary infection and the rate of secondary infection increased with age.

CONCLUSION

While the majority of dengue-confirmed cases were children, almost three-quarters of dengue-confirmed cases in this study were secondary dengue. Our study results consistent with previous data from the country confirm the hyperendemic transmission of DENV in Thailand, even in the non-epidemic years. With various interventions becoming available for dengue prevention and control, including dengue vaccines, decision-making on future implementation strategies should be based on such burden of disease data.

Serological biomarker for assessing human exposure to Aedes mosquito bites during a randomized vector control intervention trial in northeastern Thailand

Background

Aedes mosquitoes are vectors for several major arboviruses of public health concern including dengue viruses. The relationships between Aedes infestation and disease transmission are complex wherein the epidemiological dynamics can be difficult to discern because of a lack of robust and sensitive indicators for predicting transmission risk. This study investigates the use of anti-Aedes saliva antibodies as a serological biomarker for Aedes mosquito bites to assess small scale variations in adult Aedes density and dengue virus (DENV) transmission risk in northeastern Thailand. Individual characteristics, behaviors/occupation and socio-demographics, climatic and epidemiological risk factors associated with human-mosquito exposure are also addressed.

Methods

The study was conducted within a randomized clustered control trial in Roi Et and Khon Kaen provinces over a consecutive 19 months period. Thirty-six (36) clusters were selected, each of ten houses. Serological and entomological surveys were conducted in all houses every four months and monthly in three sentinel households per cluster between September 2017 and April 2019 for blood spot collections and recording concurrent immature and adult Aedes indices. Additionally, the human exposure to Aedes mosquito bites (i.e., Mosquito Exposure Index or MEI) was estimated by ELISA measuring levels of human antibody response to the specific Nterm-34 kDa salivary antigen. The relationships between the MEI, vector infestation indices (adult and immature stages) and vector DENV infection were evaluated using a two-level (house and individual levels) mixed model analysis with one-month lag autoregressive correlation.

Results

There was a strong positive relationship between the MEI and adult Aedes (indoor and outdoor) density. Individuals from households with a medium mosquito density (mean difference: 0.091, p<0.001) and households with a high mosquito density (mean difference: 0.131, p<0.001) had higher MEI’s compared to individuals from households without Aedes. On a similar trend, individuals from households with a low, medium or high indoor Aedes densities (mean difference: 0.021, p<0.007, 0.053, p<0.0001 and 0.037, p<0.0001 for low, medium and high levels of infestation, respectively) had higher MEI than individuals from houses without indoor Aedes. The MEI was driven by individual characteristics, such as gender, age and occupation/behaviors, and varied according to climatic, seasonal factors and vector control intervention (p<0.05). Nevertheless, the study did not demonstrate a clear correlation between MEI and the presence of DENV-infected Aedes.

Conclusion

This study represents an important step toward the validation of the specific IgG response to the Aedes salivary peptide Nterm-34kDa as a proxy measure for Aedes infestation levels and human-mosquito exposure risk in a dengue endemic setting. The use of the IgG response to the Nterm-34 kDa peptide as a viable diagnostic tool for estimating dengue transmission requires further investigations and validation in other geographical and transmission settings.

Aedes mosquitoes and the viruses they transmit are major public health concerns for over half of the global human population. However, the quantitative relationships between virus transmission and vector mosquito infestation remain unclear despite numerous indicators used to estimate transmission risk and predict dengue outbreaks. The aim of this study is to investigate the use of a salivary biomarker to assess the small-scale variation in human exposure to Aedes bites and the risk of dengue infection in the context of a vector control intervention in northeastern Thailand. A cohort of 539 persons visited every four months, including 161 individuals visited monthly, were recruited for routine serological and concurrent household entomological surveys during 19 consecutive months follow-up. Antibody response to Aedes bites was measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays to assess the mosquito exposure index (MEI) and association with the Aedes adult and immature abundance as well as the presence of dengue virus (DENV) in adult mosquitoes (transmission risk). Additionally, the individual (cohort), climatic, and vector control intervention risk factors associated with MEI are explored. This study demonstrates that the MEI was strongly related to household adult Aedes density, particularly indoors resting mosquitoes. Additionally, the MEI was influenced by individual characteristics (i.e., person age, gender, staying indoors), and varied according to seasons and intervention. Nonetheless, no clear relationship between MEI and dengue transmission risk (i.e., vector infection) was detected. This study demonstrated the potential usefulness of the MEI to assess heterogeneity in adult Aedes infestation indices that could assist public health authorities to rapidly identify mosquito “hot spots” and the timeliness of effective vector control interventions.

Aedes Albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Susceptibility Status to Agrochemical Insecticides Used in Durian Planting Systems in Southern Thailand

High rates of dengue morbidity occur in southern Thailand. The intensive application of insecticides in orchards could affect not only agricultural insect pests, but also nontarget mosquitoes or beneficial insects. In this study, the type and quantity of insecticides commonly used across durian plantations in southern Thailand were characterized, along with the population density of Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae). Our primary aim was to determine the susceptibility status of field-derived Ae. albopictus to typical application concentrations of four agrochemical insecticides; cypermethrin, chlorpyrifos, carbaryl, and imidacloprid. Mosquito eggs were collected from durian cultivation sites in five provinces in southern Thailand and used to generate adults for susceptibility tests. The cultivation sites were categorized into three groups based on insecticide application: intensive application of insecticides, low application of insecticides, and no application of insecticides. Twenty ovitraps were deployed for at least three consecutive days at each study site to collect mosquito eggs and to determine Ae. albopictus population density. WHO tube assays were used to determine the susceptibility of adult mosquitoes derived from field-collected eggs to selected insecticides. This represents the first report of the susceptibility status of Ae. albopictus from durian orchards in southern Thailand to agrochemical insecticides. Results showed complete susceptibility of these Ae. albopictus to chlorpyrifos, but reduced mortality following exposure to λ-cyhalothrin, carbaryl, and imidacloprid, which is suggestive of the development of resistance. These findings provide new insights into the status of insecticide susceptibility in Ae. albopictus populations, with important implications for mosquito and mosquito-borne disease control in Thailand.

Use of seroprevalence to guide dengue vaccination plans for older adults in a dengue non-endemic country

A shift in dengue cases toward the adult population, accompanied by an increased risk of severe cases of dengue in the elderly, has created an important emerging issue in the past decade. To understand the level of past DENV infection among older adults after a large dengue outbreak occurred in southern Taiwan in 2015, we screened 1498 and 2603 serum samples from healthy residents aged ≥ 40 years in Kaohsiung City and Tainan City, respectively, to assess the seroprevalence of anti-DENV IgG in 2016. Seropositive samples were verified to exclude cross-reaction from Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), using DENV/JEV-NS1 indirect IgG ELISA. We further identified viral serotypes and secondary DENV infections among positive samples in the two cities. The overall age-standardized seroprevalence of DENV-IgG among participants was 25.77% in Kaohsiung and 11.40% in Tainan, and the seroprevalence was significantly higher in older age groups of both cities. Although the percentages of secondary DENV infection in Kaohsiung and Tainan were very similar (43.09% and 44.76%, respectively), DENV-1 and DENV-2 spanned a wider age range in Kaohsiung, whereas DENV-2 was dominant in Tainan. As very few studies have obtained the serostatus of DENV infection in older adults and the elderly, this study highlights the need for further investigation into antibody status, as well as the safety and efficacy of dengue vaccination in these older populations.

Care maps are an effective tool for optimizing quality of care of infectious diseases in a resource-constrained short-stay ambulatory care setting

ABSTRACT

Care maps (CMs), which are innovative, comprehensive, educational, and simple medical tools, were developed for 6 common diseases, including heart failure, stroke, hyperglycemia, urinary tract infection, dengue infection, and upper gastrointestinal bleeding, were implemented in a short-stay ambulatory ward. This study aimed to investigate the effectiveness of and level of clinician satisfaction with CMs in an ambulatory care setting.A retrospective chart review study comparing the quality of care between before and after CM implementation was conducted. The medical records of patients who were admitted to a short-stay ambulatory ward in a tertiary referral center were reviewed. Demographic data, severity of disease, quality of care, length of stay (LOS), admission cost, and CM user satisfaction were collected and recorded.The medical records of 1116 patients were evaluated. Of those, 589 and 527 patients were from before (non-CM group) and after CM (CM group) implementation, respectively. There were no significant differences between groups for age, gender, or disease-specific severity the median (interquartile range) total and essential quality scores were significantly higher in the CM group than in the non-CM group [total quality score 85.3 (75.0-92.9) vs 61.1 (50.0-75.0); P < .001, and essential quality scores 90.0 (75.0-100.0) vs 60.0 (40.6-80.0); P < .0001, respectively]. All aspects of quality of care were significantly improved between before and after CM implementation. Overall median LOS was significantly decreased from 3.8 (2.5-5.7) to 3.0 (2.0-4.9) days, but there was no significant decrease for admission cost. However, CMs were able to significantly reduce both LOS and admission cost in the infectious disease-related subgroup. Most CM users reported satisfaction with CMs.CMs were shown to be an effective tool for improving the quality of care in patients with ambulatory infectious diseases. In that patient subgroup, LOS and admission cost were both significantly reduced compared to pre-CM implementation.

Knowledge, attitudes, and practices on climate change and dengue in Lao People's Democratic Republic and Thailand

BACKGROUND

Dengue is linked with climate change in tropical and sub-tropical countries including the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Laos) and Thailand. Knowledge about these issues and preventive measures can affect the incidence and outbreak risk of dengue. Therefore, the present study was conducted to determine the knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) among urban and rural communities and government officials about climate change and dengue in Laos and Thailand.

METHODS

A cross-sectional KAP survey about climate change and dengue were conducted in 360 households in Laos (180 urban and 180 rural), 359 households in Thailand (179 urban and 180 rural), and 20 government officials (10 in each country) using structured questionnaires. Data analysis was undertaken using descriptive methods, principal component analysis (PCA), Chi-square test or Fisher's exact test (as appropriate), and logistic regression.

RESULTS

Significant differences among the selected communities in both countries were found in terms of household participant's age, level of education, socioeconomic status, attitude level of climate change and KAP level of dengue (P < 0.05; 95% CI). Overall, participants' KAP about climate change and dengue were low except the attitude level for dengue in both countries. The level of awareness among government officials regarding the climatic relationship with dengue was also low. In Lao households, participants' knowledge about climate change and dengue was significantly associated with the level of education and socioeconomic status (SES) (P < 0.01). Their attitudes towards climate change and dengue were associated with educational level and internet use (P < 0.05). Householders' climate change related practices were associated with SES (P < 0.01) and dengue related practices were associated with educational level, SES, previous dengue experience and internet use (P < 0.01). In Thailand, participants' knowledge about climate change was associated with the level of education and SES (P < 0.01). Their attitudes towards climate change were associated with residence status (urban/rural) and internet use (P < 0.05); climate change related practices were associated with educational level and SES (P < 0.05). Dengue related knowledge of participants was associated with SES and previous dengue experience (P < 0.05); participants' dengue related attitudes and practices were associated with educational level (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

The findings call for urgently needed integrated awareness programs to increase KAP levels regarding climate change adaptation, mitigation and dengue prevention to improve the health and welfare of people in these two countries, and similar dengue-endemic countries.

Incorporating human mobility data improves forecasts of Dengue fever in Thailand

Over 390 million people worldwide are infected with dengue fever each year. In the absence of an effective vaccine for general use, national control programs must rely on hospital readiness and targeted vector control to prepare for epidemics, so accurate forecasting remains an important goal. Many dengue forecasting approaches have used environmental data linked to mosquito ecology to predict when epidemics will occur, but these have had mixed results. Conversely, human mobility, an important driver in the spatial spread of infection, is often ignored. Here we compare time-series forecasts of dengue fever in Thailand, integrating epidemiological data with mobility models generated from mobile phone data. We show that geographically-distant provinces strongly connected by human travel have more highly correlated dengue incidence than weakly connected provinces of the same distance, and that incorporating mobility data improves traditional time-series forecasting approaches. Notably, no single model or class of model always outperformed others. We propose an adaptive, mosaic forecasting approach for early warning systems.

Epidemiological characteristics and determination of spatio-temporal clusters during the 2013 dengue outbreak in Chiang Mai, Thailand

Dengue is the worldwide most important mosquito-borne viral disease in humans. A large dengue outbreak occurred in Chiang Mai, Thailand in 2013. The aims of this study were to describe the epidemiology of this outbreak and determine the spatio-temporal pattern in the sub-district with the highest number of dengue cases. Data on patients, including date of illness, were obtained from the Chiang Mai Provincial Public Health Center and analyzed descriptively using R statistical software. The geographic location of patients' residences was determined from available geographical information databases supplemented with coordinated data collection in the field. A space-time permutation model from SaTScan™ was used to determine disease clusters corresponding to space and time. Results showed that Muang District, the centre of the province, had a higher number of cases than the other 25 districts. The Suthep subdistrict, part of Muang District, had most of the patients: 625 subjects distributed between 213 residences. The space-time analysis identified a primary cluster and 7 secondary clusters in different time periods. The primary cluster had 128 patients in a period of approximately 3 months. The number of patients in the secondary clusters ranged between 7 and 65. Most of the clusters occurred in densely populated areas during June and July (the rainy season). The finding from this study may support health agencies to plan surveillance campaigns for people at specified local areas with a high incidence of the disease.

Comparative Analyses of Historical Trends in Confirmed Dengue Illnesses Detected at Public Hospitals in Bangkok and Northern Thailand, 2002-2018

Dengue is a re-emerging global public health problem, the most common arbovirus causing human disease in the world, and a major cause of hospitalization in endemic countries causing significant economic burden. Data were analyzed from passive surveillance of hospital-attended dengue cases from 2002 to 2018 at Phramongkutklao Hospital (PMKH) located in Bangkok, Thailand, and Kamphaeng Phet Provincial Hospital (KPPH) located in the lower northern region of Thailand. At PMKH, serotype 1 proved to be the most common strain of the virus, whereas at KPPH, serotypes 1, 2, and 3 were the most common strains from 2006 to 2008, 2009 to 2012, and 2013 to 2015, respectively. The 11–17 years age-group made up the largest proportion of patients impacted by dengue illnesses during the study period at both sites. At KPPH, dengue virus (DENV)-3 was responsible for most cases of dengue fever (DF), whereas it was DENV-1 at PMKH. In cases where dengue hemorrhagic fever was the clinical diagnosis, DENV-2 was the predominant serotype at KPPH, whereas at PMKH, it was DENV-1. The overall disease prevalence remained consistent across the two study sites with DF being the predominant clinical diagnosis as the result of an acute secondary dengue infection, representing 40.7% of overall cases at KPPH and 56.8% at PMKH. The differences seen between these sites could be a result of climate change increasing the length of dengue season and shifts in migration patterns of these populations from rural to urban areas and vice versa.

Revealing two dynamic dengue epidemic clusters in Thailand

Background

Thailand is home to around 69 million individuals. Dengue is hyper-endemic and all 4 serotypes are in active circulation in the country. Dengue outbreaks occur almost annually within Thailand in at least one province but the spatio-temporal and environmental interface of these outbreaks has not been studied.

Methods

We develop Bayesian regime switching (BRS) models to characterize outbreaks, their persistence and infer their likelihood of occurrence across time for each administrative province where dengue case counts are collected. BRS was compared against two other classification tools and their agreement is assessed. We further examine how these spatio-temporal clusters of outbreak clusters arise by comparing reported dengue case counts, urban population, urban land cover, climate and flight volumes on the province level.

Results

Two dynamic dengue epidemic clusters were found nationally. One cluster consists of 47 provinces and is highly outbreak prone. Provinces with a large number of case counts, urban population, urban land cover and incoming flight passengers are associated to the epidemic prone cluster of dengue. Climate has an effect on determining the probability of outbreaks over time within provinces, but have less influence on whether provinces belong to the epidemic prone cluster. BRS found high agreement with other classification tools.

Conclusions

Importation and urbanization drives the risk of outbreaks across regions strongly. In provinces estimated to have high epidemic persistence, more resource allocation to vector control should be applied to those localities as heightened transmission counts are likely to occur over a longer period of time. Clustering of epidemic and non-epidemic prone areas also highlights the need for prioritization of resource allocation for disease mitigation over provinces in Thailand.

Supplementary Information

Supplementary information accompanies this paper at 10.1186/s12879-020-05666-4.

Impact of Nutritional Status on the Severity of Dengue Infection Among Pediatric Patients in Southern Thailand

BACKGROUND

Given the lack of specific antiviral drugs and effective vaccine for dengue infection, factors such as host nutritional status that may alter disease progression require investigation. This study examined the relationship between baseline nutritional status and severity of dengue infection in pediatric patients.

METHODS

Data from dengue patients 1-14 years of age treated at four hospitals in southern Thailand (2017-2018) were reviewed. Dengue infection was classified as dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome. Children's nutritional status was assessed based on international and national growth charts. Binary logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with dengue severity and malnutrition.

RESULTS

Overall, 248, 281 and 43 patients had dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome, respectively. Overweight was associated with increased risk of dengue severity [odds ratio (OR) = 1.76, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.13-2.75, P = 0.012; OR = 1.84, 95% CI: 1.09-3.09, P = 0.022, per international and national growth criteria, respectively). Stunting was associated with decreased risk of dengue severity (OR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.33-0.88, P = 0.013; OR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.39-0.95, P = 0.030, per international and national growth criteria, respectively). Being overweight was significantly and positively associated with levels of hemoglobin >14 g/dL, hematocrit >42%, hemoconcentration ≥20% and platelet count ≤50,000/mm, whereas being stunted was significantly and negatively associated with levels of hemoglobin >14 g/dL and hematocrit >42%.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings support a hypothesis that malnutrition might influence the severity of dengue infection through host immune response. Overweight children with dengue infections should be closely observed for early signs of severe dengue infection.

Safety of temporary interruption of antiplatelet therapy in dengue fever with thrombocytopenia

Thrombocytopenia commonly occurs in dengue and may be complicated by bleeding. Dengue can occur in adults who may be on long term antiplatelet therapy for ischemic heart disease or stroke. In these cases, clinicians may temporarily discontinue antiplatelet therapy to minimize the risk of bleeding in the absence of clear guidelines. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of laboratory-confirmed adult dengue patients on antiplatelet therapy and evaluated participants whose antiplatelet therapy was continued versus discontinued. Primary outcome was a composite outcome of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE), and all-cause mortality in-hospital and for 1-year post discharge. Secondary outcomes were platelet and blood transfusion, and occurrence of dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF), dengue shock syndrome, dengue with warning signs and severe dengue according to World Health Organization criteria. Discontinuation of antiplatelet therapy did not result in higher composite outcome (p=0.192). Continuation of antiplatelet therapy did not result in more platelet or blood transfusion (p=0.489 and p=0.567 respectively), DHF (p=0.923). Our results suggest that discontinuation or continuation of antiplatelet therapy based on clinical judgement in dengue with thrombocytopenia, is largely safe but further studies are needed.