Improvement of disease prediction and modeling through the use of meteorological ensembles: human plague in Uganda

Yersinia pestis and Plague: some knowns and unknowns

Since its first identification in 1894 during the third pandemic in Hong Kong, there has been significant progress of understanding the lifestyle of Yersinia pestis, the pathogen that is responsible for plague. Although we now have some understanding of the pathogen's physiology, genetics, genomics, evolution, gene regulation, pathogenesis and immunity, there are many unknown aspects of the pathogen and its disease development. Here, we focus on some of the knowns and unknowns relating to Y. pestis and plague. We notably focus on some key Y. pestis physiological and virulence traits that are important for its mammal-flea-mammal life cycle but also its emergence from the enteropathogen Yersinia pseudotuberculosis. Some aspects of the genetic diversity of Y. pestis, the distribution and ecology of plague as well as the medical countermeasures to protect our population are also provided. Lastly, we present some biosafety and biosecurity information related to Y. pestis and plague.

Spatial-temporal Distribution and Influencing Factors of Helicobacter pylori Infection in Chinese Mainland, 2001-2020: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

The spatial-temporal distribution of Helicobacter pylori infection in China is poorly understood. We aimed to study the spatial-temporal distribution of H. pylori infection in Chinese mainland and to explore its influencing factors.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We searched the relevant literature from 2001 to 2021 and applied meta-analysis to obtain the pooled prevalence estimates of all studies and subgroups. Then, we used the pooled prevalence as the dependent variable for the following analysis, including time series analysis, statistical mapping, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and influencing factor analysis based on generalized additive model and panel data model.

RESULTS

A total of 726 articles and 3,407,392 people were included. The pooled prevalence was 43.7% (95% confidence interval: 42.7%-44.8%). The prevalence decreased in the past 20 years, with high in the eastern and western regions and low in the central region. Qinghai Tibet Plateau and Guizhou Plateau were the high incidence areas of this disease. The intake of vegetable oil, aquatic products, meat, milk, per capita gross domestic product, and annual average humidity were significantly correlated with H. pylori.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of H. pylori is decreasing in Chinese mainland, but still high in underdeveloped areas. Appropriate strategies for the prevention need greater attention.

The influence of temperature on the seasonality of historical plague outbreaks

Modern plague outbreaks exhibit a distinct seasonal pattern. By contrast, the seasonality of historical outbreaks and its drivers has not been studied systematically. Here, we investigate the seasonal pattern, the epidemic peak timing and growth rates, and the association with latitude, temperature, and precipitation using a large, novel dataset of plague- and all-cause mortality during the Second Pandemic in Europe and the Mediterranean. We show that epidemic peak timing followed a latitudinal gradient, with mean annual temperature negatively associated with peak timing. Based on modern temperature data, the predicted epidemic growth of all outbreaks was positive between 11.7°C and 21.5°C with a maximum around 17.3°C. Hence, our study provides evidence that the growth of plague epidemics across the whole study region depended on similar absolute temperature thresholds. Here, we present a systematic analysis of the seasonality of historical plague in the Northern Hemisphere, and we show consistent evidence for a temperature-related process influencing the epidemic peak timing and growth rates of plague epidemics.

Epidemiology, Ecology and Prevention of Plague in the West Nile Region of Uganda: The Value of Long-Term Field Studies

Plague, a fleaborne rodent-associated zoonosis, is a neglected disease with most recent cases reported from east and central Africa and Madagascar. Because of its low incidence and sporadic occurrence, most of our knowledge of plague ecology, prevention, and control derives from investigations conducted in response to human cases. Long-term studies (which are uncommon) are required to generate data to support plague surveillance, prevention, and control recommendations. Here we describe a 15-year, multidisciplinary commitment to plague in the West Nile region of Uganda that led to significant advances in our understanding of where and when persons are at risk for plague infection and how to reduce morbidity and mortality. These findings provide data-driven support for several existing recommendations on plague surveillance and prevention and may be generalizable to other plague foci.

The delayed effect of cooling reinforced the NAO-plague connection in pre-industrial Europe

Previous studies on the connection between climate and plague were mostly conducted without considering the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulations and long-term historical observations. The current study seeks to reveal the sophisticated role of climatic control on plague by investigating the combined effect of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and temperature on plague outbreaks in Europe from 1347 to 1760 CE. Moving correlation analysis is applied to explore the non-linear relationship between NAO and plague transmission over time. Also, we apply the cross-correlation function to identify the role of temperature in mediating the NAO-plague connection and the lead-lag relationship in between. Our statistical results show that the pathway from climate change to plague incidence is distinctive in its spatial, temporal, and non-linear patterns. The multi-decadal temperature change exerted a 15-22 years lagged impact on the NAO-plague correlation in different European regions. The NAO-plague correlation in Atlantic-Central Europe primarily remained positive, while the correlation in Mediterranean Europe switched between positive and negative alternately. The modulating effect of temperature over the NAO-plague correlation increases exponentially with the magnitude of the temperature anomaly, but the effect is negligible between 0.3 and -0.3 °C anomaly. Our findings show that a lagged influence from the temperature extremes dominantly controls the correlation between NAO and plague incidence. A forecast from our study suggests that large-scale plague outbreaks are unlikely to happen in Europe if NAO remains at its current positive phase during the earth's future warming.

An Evaluation of the Flea Index as a Predictor of Plague Epizootics in the West Nile Region of Uganda

Plague is a low incidence flea-borne zoonosis that is often fatal if treatment is delayed or inadequate. Outbreaks occur sporadically and human cases are often preceded by epizootics among rodents. Early recognition of epizootics coupled with appropriate prevention measures should reduce plague morbidity and mortality. For nearly a century, the flea index (a measure of fleas per host) has been used as a measure of risk for epizootic spread and human plague case occurrence, yet the practicality and effectiveness of its use in surveillance programs has not been evaluated rigorously. We sought to determine whether long-term monitoring of the Xenopsylla flea index on hut-dwelling rats in sentinel villages in the plague-endemic West Nile region of Uganda accurately predicted plague occurrence in the surrounding parish. Based on observations spanning ~6 yr, we showed that on average, the Xenopsylla flea index increased prior to the start of the annual plague season and tended to be higher in years when plague activity was reported in humans or rodents compared with years when it was not. However, this labor-intensive effort had limited spatial coverage and was a poor predictor of plague activity within sentinel parishes.

Drought-induced spatio-temporal synchrony of plague outbreak in Europe

Plague synchronously swept across separated regions in Europe throughout history. However, the spatio-temporal synchrony of plague and its driving mechanism have not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we transformed the historical European plague database spanned 1347-1800 CE into country-level time-series that differentiated large-scale plague outbreak from counted data. We found that there are 74 years in which two or more countries in our study region (UK, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy) experienced large-scale plague outbreak in the same year. Our Multivariate Ripley's K-function results showed that the onset year and the cessation year of large-scale plague outbreak are synchronized at the 0-23-year and 0-20-year windows, respectively. The temporal association between such synchrony and climatic forcing was further investigated using the Superposed Epoch Analysis, and drought was found to be responsible for the synchrony. Integrating our results with a literature survey, we suggested that prior to the peak of plague, the occurrence of drought and the subsequent reintroduced rainfall dampened both the rodent community and human society and boosted the number of fleas that carried plague. Such a synthesis facilitated the outbreak of plague. At the same time, high temperature associated with such drought also confined the geographic diffusion of the plague. Hence, although continental mega-drought could initiate the synchrony of plague outbreak, the synchrony actually consisted of a number of localized plague outbreak events scattering across different regions in Europe. According to the projected rising trend of drought in terms of its magnitude, duration, and geographic extent, the risk of synchrony of rodent-borne diseases in Europe will be significantly elevated, especially in France, Italy, and Spain.

Human plague system associated with rodent diversity and other environmental factors

Plague remains a threat to public health and is considered as a re-emerging infectious disease today. Rodents play an important role as major hosts in plague persistence and driving plague outbreaks in natural foci; however, few studies have tested the association between host diversity in ecosystems and human plague risk. Here we use zero-inflated generalized additive models to examine the association of species richness with human plague presence (where plague outbreaks could occur) and intensity (the average number of annual human cases when they occurred) in China during the Third Pandemic. We also account for transportation network density, annual precipitation levels and human population size. We found rodent species richness, particularly of rodent plague hosts, is positively associated with the presence of human plague. Further investigation shows that species richness of both wild and commensal rodent plague hosts are positively correlated with the presence, but only the latter correlated with the intensity. Our results indicated a positive relationship between rodent diversity and human plague, which may provide suggestions for the plague surveillance system.

Best practice assessment of disease modelling for infectious disease outbreaks

During emerging disease outbreaks, public health, emergency management officials and decision-makers increasingly rely on epidemiological models to forecast outbreak progression and determine the best response to health crisis needs. Outbreak response strategies derived from such modelling may include pharmaceutical distribution, immunisation campaigns, social distancing, prophylactic pharmaceuticals, medical care, bed surge, security and other requirements. Infectious disease modelling estimates are unavoidably subject to multiple interpretations, and full understanding of a model's limitations may be lost when provided from the disease modeller to public health practitioner to government policymaker. We review epidemiological models created for diseases which are of greatest concern for public health protection. Such diseases, whether transmitted from person-to-person (Ebola, influenza, smallpox), via direct exposure (anthrax), or food and waterborne exposure (cholera, typhoid) may cause severe illness and death in a large population. We examine disease-specific models to determine best practices characterising infectious disease outbreaks and facilitating emergency response and implementation of public health policy and disease control measures.

Patterns of Human Plague in Uganda, 2008-2016

Plague is a highly virulent fleaborne zoonosis that occurs throughout many parts of the world; most suspected human cases are reported from resource-poor settings in sub-Saharan Africa. During 2008–2016, a combination of active surveillance and laboratory testing in the plague-endemic West Nile region of Uganda yielded 255 suspected human plague cases; approximately one third were laboratory confirmed by bacterial culture or serology. Although the mortality rate was 7% among suspected cases, it was 26% among persons with laboratory-confirmed plague. Reports of an unusual number of dead rats in a patient’s village around the time of illness onset was significantly associated with laboratory confirmation of plague. This descriptive summary of human plague in Uganda highlights the episodic nature of the disease, as well as the potential that, even in endemic areas, illnesses of other etiologies might be being mistaken for plague.

Identifying the social and environmental determinants of plague endemicity in Peru: insights from a case study in Ascope, La Libertad

BACKGROUND

Plague remains a public health problem in specific areas located in Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador and Peru. Its prevention and control encompasses adequate clinical management and timely laboratory diagnosis. However, understanding communities' interaction with its surrounding ecosystem as well as the differences between community members and institutional stakeholders regarding the root causes of plague might contribute to understand its endemicity. We aim at bridging the traditionally separate biological and social sciences by elucidating communities' risk perception and identifying knowledge gaps between communities and stakeholders. This approach has been used in other areas but never in understanding plague endemicity, nor applied in the Latin American plague context. The objectives were to identify (i) plague risk perception at community level, (ii) perceived social and environmental determinants of plague endemicity, and (iii) institutions that need to be involved and actions needed to be taken as proposed by stakeholders and community members. The study was performed in 2015 and took place in Ascope rural province, La Libertad Region, in Peru, where the study areas are surrounded by intensive private sugarcane production.

METHODS

We propose using a multi-level discourse analysis. Community households were randomly selected (n = 68). Structured and semi-structured questionnaires were applied. A stakeholder analysis was used to identify policy makers (n = 34). In-depth interviews were performed, recorded and transcribed. Descriptive variables were analyzed with SPSS®. Answers were coded following variables adapted from the Commission on Social Determinants of Health and analyzed with the assistance of ATLAS.ti®.

RESULTS

Results showed that risk perception was low within the community. Policy-makers identified agriculture and sugarcane production as the root cause while community answers ranked the hygiene situation as the main cause. Stakeholders first ranked governmental sectors (education, housing, agriculture and transport) and the community prioritized the health sector. Social surveillance and improving prevention and control were first cited by policy-makers and community members, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The determinants of plague endemicity identified by the two groups differed. Similarly, actions and sectors needed to be involved in solving the problem varied. The gaps in understanding plague root causes between these two groups might hinder the efficiency of current plague prevention and control strategies.

Rat Fall Surveillance Coupled with Vector Control and Community Education as a Plague Prevention Strategy in the West Nile Region, Uganda

Plague, primarily a disease of rodents, is most frequently transmitted by fleas and causes potentially fatal infections in humans. In Uganda, plague is endemic to the West Nile region. Primary prevention for plague includes control of rodent hosts or flea vectors, but targeting these efforts is difficult given the sporadic nature of plague epizootics in the region and limited resource availability. Here, we present a community-based strategy to detect and report rodent deaths (rat fall), an early sign of epizootics. Laboratory testing of rodent carcasses is used to trigger primary and secondary prevention measures: indoor residual spraying (IRS) and community-based plague education, respectively. During the first 3 years of the program, individuals from 142 villages reported 580 small mammal deaths; 24 of these tested presumptive positive for Yersinia pestis by fluorescence microscopy. In response, for each of the 17 affected communities, village-wide IRS was conducted to control rodent-associated fleas within homes, and community sensitization was conducted to raise awareness of plague signs and prevention strategies. No additional presumptive Y. pestis-positive carcasses were detected in these villages within the 2-month expected duration of residual activity for the insecticide used in IRS. Despite comparatively high historic case counts, no human plague cases were reported from villages participating in the surveillance program; five cases were reported from elsewhere in the districts. We evaluate community participation and timeliness of response, report the frequency of human plague cases in participating and surrounding villages, and evaluate whether a program such as this could provide a sustainable model for plague prevention in endemic areas.

Comparison of Zoonotic Bacterial Agents in Fleas Collected from Small Mammals or Host-Seeking Fleas from a Ugandan Region Where Plague Is Endemic

Fleas play critical roles in transmitting some infections among animals and from animals to humans. Detection of pathogens in fleas is important to determine human risks for flea-borne diseases and can help guide diagnosis and treatment. Our findings of high prevalence rates of B. elizabethae and R. felis in fleas in the Arua and Zombo districts of Uganda implicate these agents as potential causative agents of undiagnosed febrile illnesses in this area.

Fleas (n = 407) were collected from small mammals trapped inside huts and surroundings of homesteads in five villages within the Arua and Zombo districts of Uganda. The most common flea species were Dinopsyllus lypusus (26%) and Xenopsylla cheopis (50%). Off-host fleas (n = 225) were collected inside huts by using Kilonzo flea traps. The majority of the off-host fleas were Ctenocephalides felis (80%). All fleas were examined for the presence of Bartonella spp., Rickettsia spp., and Yersinia spp. Bartonella DNA was detected in 91 fleas, with an overall prevalence of 14%. Bartonella prevalence was significantly higher in rodent or shrew fleas than in off-host fleas (22% versus 1%). The majority of Bartonella-positive fleas were of the species D. lypusus (61%), X. cheopis (20%), and Ctenophthalmus calceatus (14%). Sequencing analysis identified 12 Bartonella genetic variants, 9 of which belonged to the zoonotic pathogen B. elizabethae species complex. Rickettsia DNA was detected in 143 fleas, giving an overall prevalence of 23%, with a significantly higher prevalence in off-host fleas than in rodent or shrew fleas (56% versus 4%). The majority (88%) of Rickettsia-positive fleas were C. felis and were collected from Kilonzo traps, while a small portion (10%) were X. cheopis collected from rodents. Sequencing analysis identified six Rickettsia genogroups that belonged either to zoonotic R. felis or to the closely related “Candidatus Ricksettia asemboensis” and “Candidatus Ricksettia sengalensis.” Yersinia DNA was not detected in the fleas tested. These observations suggested that fleas in northwestern Uganda commonly carry the zoonotic agents B. elizabethae and R. felis and potentially play an important role in transmitting these infections to humans.

IMPORTANCE Fleas play critical roles in transmitting some infections among animals and from animals to humans. Detection of pathogens in fleas is important to determine human risks for flea-borne diseases and can help guide diagnosis and treatment. Our findings of high prevalence rates of B. elizabethae and R. felis in fleas in the Arua and Zombo districts of Uganda implicate these agents as potential causative agents of undiagnosed febrile illnesses in this area.

A qualitative socio-ecological characterization of the plague threat at Hermelinda Market, La Libertad, Peru

Objective

To identify 1) the main determinants of persistent Yersinia pestis circulation and the associated threat of plague at Hermelinda Market—a large farmers’ market in the city of Trujillo, La Libertad, Peru—and the main actions taken against it, as perceived by local stakeholders; 2) the level of plague risk perception among local actors; and 3) recommended actions to solve the plague threat at the market.

Methods.

A conceptual framework was developed combining a social determinants approach with a complex systems-thinking framework and a knowledge management perspective. A four-step qualitative protocol was carried out (literature review; stakeholder mapping; 37 semi-structured interviews; and coding/analysis). In the fourth step, the data collected in the semi-structured interviews were coded for eight social determinants of health (SDH) variables and analyzed with ATLAS.ti®, and an emerging category analysis was performed to identify risk perception levels.

Results.

Based on analysis by SDH variable, the three main determinants of the plague threat at Hermelinda Market were: 1) local (Trujillo City) governance, 2) infrastructure and basic services, and 3) local culture. According to the same analysis, actions most frequently undertaken against plague involved 1) infrastructure and basic services, 2) social vigilance, and 3) communication. The emerging category analysis indicated local risk perception levels were low, with most of the data pointing to “unhygienic” (“naturalized”) lifestyles and a general lack of awareness about the disease prior to plague-related health concerns at the market as the cause.

Conclusions.

The results indicate that the persistent circulation of Yersinia pestis at Hermelinda Market is not simply a technical matter but more of a managerial and cultural problem. As local governance was found to be a main factor in the persistence of this public health threat, future efforts against it should focus on sustainable inter-sectoral planning and education. Actions taken exclusively by the health sector and the improvement of infrastructure and basic services alone will not be enough to reduce the threat of plague at the market.

Climatic and evolutionary drivers of phase shifts in the plague epidemics of colonial India

Immune heterogeneity in wild host populations indicates that disease-mediated selection is common in nature. However, the underlying dynamic feedbacks involving the ecology of disease transmission, evolutionary processes, and their interaction with environmental drivers have proven challenging to characterize. Plague presents an optimal system for interrogating such couplings: Yersinia pestis transmission exerts intense selective pressure driving the local persistence of disease resistance among its wildlife hosts in endemic areas. Investigations undertaken in colonial India after the introduction of plague in 1896 suggest that, only a decade after plague arrived, a heritable, plague-resistant phenotype had become prevalent among commensal rats of cities undergoing severe plague epidemics. To understand the possible evolutionary basis of these observations, we developed a mathematical model coupling environmentally forced plague dynamics with evolutionary selection of rats, capitalizing on extensive archival data from Indian Plague Commission investigations. Incorporating increased plague resistance among rats as a consequence of intense natural selection permits the model to reproduce observed changes in seasonal epidemic patterns in several cities and capture experimentally observed associations between climate and flea population dynamics in India. Our model results substantiate Victorian era claims of host evolution based on experimental observations of plague resistance and reveal the buffering effect of such evolution against environmental drivers of transmission. Our analysis shows that historical datasets can yield powerful insights into the transmission dynamics of reemerging disease agents with which we have limited contemporary experience to guide quantitative modeling and inference.

Navigable rivers facilitated the spread and recurrence of plague in pre-industrial Europe

Infectious diseases have become a rising challenge to mankind in a globalizing world. Yet, little is known about the inland transmission of infectious diseases in history. In this study, we based on the spatio-temporal information of 5559 plague (Yersinia pestis) outbreaks in Europe and its neighboring regions in AD1347–1760 to statistically examine the connection between navigable rivers and plague outbreak. Our results showed that 95.5% of plague happened within 10 km proximity of navigable rivers. Besides, the count of plague outbreak was positively correlated with the width of river and negatively correlated with the distance between city and river. This association remained robust in different regression model specifications. An increase of 100 m in the width of river and a shortening of 1 km distance between city and river resulted in 9 and 0.96 more plague outbreaks in our study period, respectively. Such relationship shows a declining trend over our study period due to the expansion of city and technological advancement in overland transportation. This study elucidates the key role of navigable river in the dissemination of plague in historical Europe.

Zoonoses As Ecological Entities: A Case Review of Plague

As a zoonosis, Plague is also an ecological entity, a complex system of ecological interactions between the pathogen, the hosts, and the spatiotemporal variations of its ecosystems. Five reservoir system models have been proposed: (i) assemblages of small mammals with different levels of susceptibility and roles in the maintenance and amplification of the cycle; (ii) species-specific chronic infection models; (ii) flea vectors as the true reservoirs; (iii) Telluric Plague, and (iv) a metapopulation arrangement for species with a discrete spatial organization, following a source-sink dynamic of extinction and recolonization with naïve potential hosts. The diversity of the community that harbors the reservoir system affects the transmission cycle by predation, competition, and dilution effect. Plague has notable environmental constraints, depending on altitude (500+ meters), warm and dry climates, and conditions for high productivity events for expansion of the transmission cycle. Human impacts are altering Plague dynamics by altering landscape and the faunal composition of the foci and adjacent areas, usually increasing the presence and number of human cases and outbreaks. Climatic change is also affecting the range of its occurrence. In the current transitional state of zoonosis as a whole, Plague is at risk of becoming a public health problem in poor countries where ecosystem erosion, anthropic invasion of new areas, and climate change increase the contact of the population with reservoir systems, giving new urgency for ecologic research that further details its maintenance in the wild, the spillover events, and how it links to human cases.

Trends in the Mechanistic and Dynamic Modeling of Infectious Diseases

The dynamics of infectious disease epidemics are driven by interactions between individuals with differing disease status (e.g., susceptible, infected, immune). Mechanistic models that capture the dynamics of such “dependent happenings” are a fundamental tool of infectious disease epidemiology. Recent methodological advances combined with access to new data sources and computational power have resulted in an explosion in the use of dynamic models in the analysis of emerging and established infectious diseases. Increasing use of models to inform practical public health decision making has challenged the field to develop new methods to exploit available data and appropriately characterize the uncertainty in the results. Here, we discuss recent advances and areas of active research in the mechanistic and dynamic modeling of infectious disease. We highlight how a growing emphasis on data and inference, novel forecasting methods, and increasing access to “big data” are changing the field of infectious disease dynamics. We showcase the application of these methods in phylodynamic research, which combines mechanistic models with rich sources of molecular data to tie genetic data to population-level disease dynamics. As dynamics and mechanistic modeling methods mature and are increasingly tied to principled statistical approaches, the historic separation between the infectious disease dynamics and “traditional” epidemiologic methods is beginning to erode; this presents new opportunities for cross pollination between fields and novel applications.

Two Distinct Yersinia pestis Populations Causing Plague among Humans in the West Nile Region of Uganda

Background

Plague is a life-threatening disease caused by the bacterium, Yersinia pestis. Since the 1990s, Africa has accounted for the majority of reported human cases. In Uganda, plague cases occur in the West Nile region, near the border with Democratic Republic of Congo. Despite the ongoing risk of contracting plague in this region, little is known about Y. pestis genotypes causing human disease.

Methodology/Principal Findings

During January 2004–December 2012, 1,092 suspect human plague cases were recorded in the West Nile region of Uganda. Sixty-one cases were culture-confirmed. Recovered Y. pestis isolates were analyzed using three typing methods, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), and multiple variable number of tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) and subpopulations analyzed in the context of associated geographic, temporal, and clinical data for source patients. All three methods separated the 61 isolates into two distinct 1.ANT lineages, which persisted throughout the 9 year period and were associated with differences in elevation and geographic distribution.

Conclusions/Significance

We demonstrate that human cases of plague in the West Nile region of Uganda are caused by two distinct 1.ANT genetic subpopulations. Notably, all three typing methods used, SNPs, PFGE, and MLVA, identified the two genetic subpopulations, despite recognizing different mutation types in the Y. pestis genome. The geographic and elevation differences between the two subpopulations is suggestive of their maintenance in highly localized enzootic cycles, potentially with differing vector-host community composition. This improved understanding of Y. pestis subpopulations in the West Nile region will be useful for identifying ecologic and environmental factors associated with elevated plague risk.

Plague, a severe and often fatal zoonotic disease, is caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. Currently, the majority of human cases have been reported from resource limited areas of Africa, where the proximity to commensal rats and other small mammals increases the likelihood for human contact with infected animals or their fleas. Over a 9 year time period, >1000 suspect cases were recorded in the West Nile region of Uganda within the districts of Arua and Zombo. Culture-confirmed cases were shown by three independent typing methods to be due to two distinct 1.ANT genetic subpopulations of Y. pestis. The two genetic subpopulations persisted throughout the 9 year time period, consistent with their ongoing maintenance in local enzootic cycles. Additionally, the two subpopulations were found to differ with respect to geographic location and elevation, with SNP Group 1 strains being found further north and at lower elevations as compared to SNP Group 2. The relative independence of the two Y. pestis subpopulations is suggestive of their maintenance in distinct foci involving enzootic cycles with differing vector-host community composition.

Flea-Associated Bacterial Communities across an Environmental Transect in a Plague-Endemic Region of Uganda

The vast majority of human plague cases currently occur in sub-Saharan Africa. The primary route of transmission of Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague, is via flea bites. Non-pathogenic flea-associated bacteria may interact with Y. pestis within fleas and it is important to understand what factors govern flea-associated bacterial assemblages. Six species of fleas were collected from nine rodent species from ten Ugandan villages between October 2010 and March 2011. A total of 660,345 16S rRNA gene DNA sequences were used to characterize bacterial communities of 332 individual fleas. The DNA sequences were binned into 421 Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs) based on 97% sequence similarity. We used beta diversity metrics to assess the effects of flea species, flea sex, rodent host species, site (i.e. village), collection date, elevation, mean annual precipitation, average monthly precipitation, and average monthly temperature on bacterial community structure. Flea species had the greatest effect on bacterial community structure with each flea species harboring unique bacterial lineages. The site (i.e. village), rodent host, flea sex, elevation, precipitation, and temperature also significantly affected bacterial community composition. Some bacterial lineages were widespread among flea species (e.g. Bartonella spp. and Wolbachia spp.), but each flea species also harbored unique bacterial lineages. Some of these lineages are not closely related to known bacterial diversity and likely represent newly discovered lineages of insect symbionts. Our finding that flea species has the greatest effect on bacterial community composition may help future investigations between Yersinia pestis and non-pathogenic flea-associated bacteria. Characterizing bacterial communities of fleas during a plague epizootic event in the future would be helpful.

Forecasting malaria in a highly endemic country using environmental and clinical predictors

Background

Malaria thrives in poor tropical and subtropical countries where local resources are limited. Accurate disease forecasts can provide public and clinical health services with the information needed to implement targeted approaches for malaria control that make effective use of limited resources. The objective of this study was to determine the relevance of environmental and clinical predictors of malaria across different settings in Uganda.

Methods

Forecasting models were based on health facility data collected by the Uganda Malaria Surveillance Project and satellite-derived rainfall, temperature, and vegetation estimates from 2006 to 2013. Facility-specific forecasting models of confirmed malaria were developed using multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average models and produced weekly forecast horizons over a 52-week forecasting period.

Results

The model with the most accurate forecasts varied by site and by forecast horizon. Clinical predictors were retained in the models with the highest predictive power for all facility sites. The average error over the 52 forecasting horizons ranged from 26 to 128% whereas the cumulative burden forecast error ranged from 2 to 22%.

Conclusions

Clinical data, such as drug treatment, could be used to improve the accuracy of malaria predictions in endemic settings when coupled with environmental predictors. Further exploration of malaria forecasting is necessary to improve its accuracy and value in practice, including examining other environmental and intervention predictors, including insecticide-treated nets.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-015-0758-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Effects of land use on plague (Yersinia pestis) activity in rodents in Tanzania

Understanding the effects of land-use change on zoonotic disease risk is a pressing global health concern. Here, we compare prevalence of Yersinia pestis, the etiologic agent of plague, in rodents across two land-use types-agricultural and conserved-in northern Tanzania. Estimated abundance of seropositive rodents nearly doubled in agricultural sites compared with conserved sites. This relationship between land-use type and abundance of seropositive rodents is likely mediated by changes in rodent and flea community composition, particularly via an increase in the abundance of the commensal species, Mastomys natalensis, in agricultural habitats. There was mixed support for rodent species diversity negatively impacting Y. pestis seroprevalence. Together, these results suggest that land-use change could affect the risk of local transmission of plague, and raise critical questions about transmission dynamics at the interface of conserved and agricultural habitats. These findings emphasize the importance of understanding disease ecology in the context of rapidly proceeding landscape change.

Seasonal fluctuations of small mammal and flea communities in a Ugandan plague focus: evidence to implicate Arvicanthis niloticus and Crocidura spp. as key hosts in Yersinia pestis transmission

Background

The distribution of human plague risk is strongly associated with rainfall in the tropical plague foci of East Africa, but little is known about how the plague bacterium is maintained during periods between outbreaks or whether environmental drivers trigger these outbreaks. We collected small mammals and fleas over a two year period in the West Nile region of Uganda to examine how the ecological community varies seasonally in a region with areas of both high and low risk of human plague cases.

Methods

Seasonal changes in the small mammal and flea communities were examined along an elevation gradient to determine whether small mammal and flea populations exhibit differences in their response to seasonal fluctuations in precipitation, temperature, and crop harvests in areas within (above 1300 m) and outside (below 1300 m) of a model-defined plague focus.

Results

The abundance of two potential enzootic host species (Arvicanthis niloticus and Crocidura spp.) increased during the plague season within the plague focus, but did not show the same increase at lower elevations outside this focus. In contrast, the abundance of the domestic rat population (Rattus rattus) did not show significant seasonal fluctuations regardless of locality. Arvicanthis niloticus abundance was negatively associated with monthly precipitation at a six month lag and positively associated with current monthly temperatures, and Crocidura spp. abundance was positively associated with precipitation at a three month lag and negatively associated with current monthly temperatures. The abundance of A. niloticus and Crocidura spp. were both positively correlated with the harvest of millet and maize.

Conclusions

The association between the abundance of several small mammal species and rainfall is consistent with previous models of the timing of human plague cases in relation to precipitation in the West Nile region. The seasonal increase in the abundance of key potential host species within the plague focus, but not outside of this area, suggests that changes in small mammal abundance may create favorable conditions for epizootic transmission of Y. pestis which ultimately may increase risk of human cases in this region.

Detecting the emergence of novel, zoonotic viruses pathogenic to humans

RNA viruses, with their high potential for mutation and epidemic spread, are the most common class of pathogens found as new causes of human illness. Despite great advances made in diagnostic technology since the 1950s, the annual rate at which novel virulent viruses have been found has remained at 2–3. Most emerging viruses are zoonoses; they have jumped from mammal or bird hosts to humans. An analysis of virus discovery indicates that the small number of novel viruses discovered annually is an artifact of inadequate surveillance in tropical and subtropical countries, where even established endemic pathogens are often misdiagnosed. Many of the emerging viruses of the future are already infecting humans but remain to be uncovered by a strategy of disease surveillance in selected populations.

Use of Insecticide Delivery Tubes for Controlling Rodent-Associated Fleas in a Plague Endemic Region of West Nile, Uganda

Plague is a primarily flea-borne rodent-associated zoonosis that is often fatal in humans. Our study focused on the plague-endemic West Nile region of Uganda where affordable means for the prevention of human plague are currently lacking. Traditional hut construction and food storage practices hinder rodent exclusion efforts, and emphasize the need for an inexpensive but effective host-targeted approach for controlling fleas within the domestic environment. Here we demonstrate the ability of an insecticide delivery tube that is made from inexpensive locally available materials to reduce fleas on domestic rodents. Unbaited tubes were treated with either an insecticide alone (fipronil) or in conjunction with an insect growth regulator [(S)-methoprene], and placed along natural rodent runways within participant huts. Performance was similar for both treatments throughout the course of the study, and showed significant reductions in the proportion of infested rodents relative to controls for at least 100 d posttreatment.

Identification of risk factors for plague in the West Nile Region of Uganda

Plague is an often fatal, primarily flea-borne rodent-associated zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis. We sought to identify risk factors for plague by comparing villages with and without a history of human plague cases within a model-defined plague focus in the West Nile Region of Uganda. Although rat (Rattus rattus) abundance was similar inside huts within case and control villages, contact rates between rats and humans (as measured by reported rat bites) and host-seeking flea loads were higher in case villages. In addition, compared with persons in control villages, persons in case villages more often reported sleeping on reed or straw mats, storing food in huts where persons sleep, owning dogs and allowing them into huts where persons sleep, storing garbage inside or near huts, and cooking in huts where persons sleep. Compared with persons in case villages, persons in control villages more commonly reported replacing thatch roofing, and growing coffee, tomatoes, onions, and melons in agricultural plots adjacent to their homesteads. Rodent and flea control practices, knowledge of plague, distance to clinics, and most care-seeking practices were similar between persons in case villages and persons in control villages. Our findings reinforce existing plague prevention recommendations and point to potentially advantageous local interventions.

Prevalence of shiga toxin producing Escherichia coli, Salmonella enterica, and Listeria monocytogenes at public access watershed sites in a California Central Coast agricultural region

Produce contaminated with enteric pathogens is a major source of foodborne illness in the United States. Lakes, streams, rivers, and ponds were sampled with Moore swabs bi-monthly for over 2 years at 30 locations in the vicinity of a leafy green growing region on the Central California Coast and screened for Shiga toxin producing Escherichia coli (STEC), Salmonella enterica, and Listeria monocytogenes to evaluate the prevalence and persistence of pathogen subtypes. The prevalence of STEC from 1386 samples was 11%; 110 samples (8%) contained E. coli O157:H7 with the highest prevalence occurring close to cattle operations. Non-O157 STEC isolates represented major clinical O-types and 57% contained both shiga toxin types 1 and 2 and intimin. Multiple Locus Variable Number Tandem Repeat Analysis of STEC isolates indicated prevalent strains during the period of study. Notably, Salmonella was present at high levels throughout the sampling region with 65% prevalence in 1405 samples resulting in 996 isolates with slightly lower prevalence in late autumn. There were 2, 8, and 14 sites that were Salmonella-positive over 90, 80, and 70% of the time, respectively. The serotypes identified most often were 6,8:d:-, Typhimurium, and Give. Interestingly, analysis by Pulsed Field Gel Electrophoresis indicated persistence and transport of pulsotypes in the region over several years. In this original study of L. monocytogenes in the region prevalence was 43% of 1405 samples resulting in 635 individual isolates. Over 85% of the isolates belonged to serotype 4b with serotypes 1/2a, 1/2b, 3a, 4d with 4e representing the rest, and there were 12 and 2 sites that were positive over 50 and 80% of the time, respectively. Although surface water is not directly used for irrigation in this region, transport to the produce can occur by other means. This environmental survey assesses initial contamination levels toward an understanding of transport leading to produce recalls or outbreaks.

Where does human plague still persist in Latin America?

BACKGROUND

Plague is an epidemic-prone disease with a potential impact on public health, international trade, and tourism. It may emerge and re-emerge after decades of epidemiological silence. Today, in Latin America, human cases and foci are present in Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, and Peru.

AIMS

The objective of this study is to identify where cases of human plague still persist in Latin America and map areas that may be at risk for emergence or re-emergence. This analysis will provide evidence-based information for countries to prioritize areas for intervention.

METHODS

Evidence of the presence of plague was demonstrated using existing official information from WHO, PAHO, and Ministries of Health. A geo-referenced database was created to map the historical presence of plague by country between the first registered case in 1899 and 2012. Areas where plague still persists were mapped at the second level of the political/administrative divisions (counties). Selected demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental variables were described.

RESULTS

Plague was found to be present for one or more years in 14 out of 25 countries in Latin America (1899-2012). Foci persisted in six countries, two of which have no report of current cases. There is evidence that human cases of plague still persist in 18 counties. Demographic and poverty patterns were observed in 11/18 counties. Four types of biomes are most commonly found. 12/18 have an average altitude higher than 1,300 meters above sea level.

DISCUSSION

Even though human plague cases are very localized, the risk is present, and unexpected outbreaks could occur. Countries need to make the final push to eliminate plague as a public health problem for the Americas. A further disaggregated risk evaluation is recommended, including identification of foci and possible interactions among areas where plague could emerge or re-emerge. A closer geographical approach and environmental characterization are suggested.

Blood meal identification in off-host cat fleas (Ctenocephalides felis) from a plague-endemic region of Uganda

The cat flea, Ctenocephalides felis, is an inefficient vector of the plague bacterium (Yersinia pestis) and is the predominant off-host flea species in human habitations in the West Nile region, an established plague focus in northwest Uganda. To determine if C. felis might serve as a Y. pestis bridging vector in the West Nile region, we collected on- and off-host fleas from human habitations and used a real-time polymerase chain reaction-based assay to estimate the proportion of off-host C. felis that had fed on humans and the proportion that had fed on potentially infectious rodents or shrews. Our findings indicate that cat fleas in human habitations in the West Nile region feed primarily on domesticated species. We conclude that C. felis is unlikely to serve as a Y. pestis bridging vector in this region.