Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach

The high climate vulnerability of western Mediterranean forests

Understanding the effects of climate change is one of the most challenging goals for biodiversity conservation. The forests of Andalusia, in Southern Spain, are part of an important Mediterranean Basin biodiversity hotspot. However, great changes in climate are expected to occur in this region, and there is an increasing need to assess the vulnerability of its vegetation. We assess the vulnerability of twelve forest types in the region that are included in the European Directive 92/43/EEC as Habitats of Community Interest (HCI). HCI are natural habitat types which are in danger, have a small natural range, or present an outstanding example of a biogeographical regions in the European Union. We assessed vulnerability by analyzing the climate exposure level of each forest type under two global climate models (MRI-CGCM3, which predicts warmer and wetter conditions, and MIROC-ESM which predicts hotter and drier conditions), two emission scenarios (RCP4.5, a representative concentration pathway that predicts stable emissions of CO2, and RCP8.5, that predicts the highest CO2 emissions) by the mid- and end-century time periods. The vulnerability analysis also includes the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the dominant tree species which compose each forest type. An overall vulnerability score was calculated for each forest type, model, scenario and time period. High-elevation forest types and those with high moisture requirements were more vulnerable to climate change, while forest types dominated by more thermophilic species were less vulnerable and more resilient. The worst climate impacts were predicted in the MIROC-ESM model and RCP8.5 scenario by the end of the century (2070-2100), while the least climatic stress was obtained in the MRI-CGCM3 model and RCP4.5 scenario by the mid-century (2040-2070), which still shows high potential stress for most forest types. By the end of the century, the climate exposure of the entire forest domain will range between 32 % in the least stressful situation (MRI-CGCM3 and RCP4.5), and 98 % in the most climatically stressful situation (MIROC-ESM and RCP8.5). However, the effects of climate change will be perceptible by the mid-century, with most of the HCI forest types suffering climate stress. The "Andalusian oak forest" and the "Corylus wet forest" types were the most vulnerable to climate change, while the "Mediterranean pine forest", the "Olea and Ceratonia forests" and the "oak forests" were the least vulnerable. This assessment identifies the vulnerable forest types to climate change in the south of the Iberian Peninsula, and provides context for natural resource managers in making decisions about how to adapt forests to the impacts of climate change.

Leveraging species richness and ecological condition indices to guide systematic conservation planning

The global crises of biodiversity loss and climate change are interconnected in root cause and solutions. Targeted land conservation has emerged as a leading strategy to protect vulnerable species and buffer climate impacts, however, consistent methods to assess biodiversity and prioritize areas for protection have not yet been established. Recent landscape-scale planning initiatives in California present an opportunity to conserve biodiversity, but to enhance their effectiveness, assessment approaches should move beyond commonly used measures of terrestrial species richness. In this study, we compile publicly available datasets and explore how distinct biodiversity conservation indices - including indicators of terrestrial and aquatic species richness and of biotic and physical ecosystem condition - are represented in watersheds of the northern Sierra Nevada mountain region of California (n = 253). We also evaluate the extent to which the existing protected area network covers watersheds that support high species richness and intact ecosystems. Terrestrial and aquatic species richness showed unique spatial patterns (Spearman R = 0.27), with highest richness of aquatic species in the low-elevation watersheds of the study area and highest richness of terrestrial species in mid- and high-elevation watersheds. Watersheds with the highest ecosystem condition were concentrated in upper-elevations and were poorly correlated with those with the highest species richness (Spearman R = -0.34). We found that 28% of watersheds in the study area are conserved by the existing protected area network. Protected watersheds had higher ecosystem condition (mean rank-normalized score = 0.71) than unprotected areas (0.42), but species richness was generally lower (0.33 in protected versus 0.57 in unprotected watersheds). We illustrate how the complementary measures of species richness and ecosystem condition can be used to guide strategies for landscape-scale ecosystem management, including prioritization of watersheds for targeted protection, restoration, monitoring, and multi-benefit management. Though designed for California, application of these indices to guide conservation planning, design monitoring networks, and implement landscape-scale management interventions provides a model for other regions of the world.

Temperature and salinity preferences of endangered Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus, Actinopterygii, Osmeridae)

Temperature and salinity often define the distributions of aquatic organisms. This is at least partially true for Delta Smelt, an imperiled species endemic to the upper San Francisco Estuary. While much is known about the tolerances and distribution of Delta Smelt in relation to these parameters, little is known regarding the temperature and salinity preferences of the species. Therefore, the temperature and salinity preferences of sub-adult Delta Smelt were investigated across a wide range of thermal (8–28 °C) and salinity (0–23 ppt) conditions. Replicates of ten fish were allowed to swim between two circular chambers with different temperature or salinity, and the distribution of fish between the chambers was recorded. We found that Delta Smelt showed no temperature preference below 15 °C, a modest aversion to the warmer tank from 15 to 28 °C, and a strong aversion to the warmer tank with elevated mortality at temperatures above 28 °C. Delta Smelt also preferred lower salinities, and this preference became more pronounced as salinity increased toward 23 ppt. These results indicate that Delta Smelt can tolerate high temperatures and salinities for a short time, and that their preferences for lower temperature and salinity strengthens as these variables increase.

Four decades of climatic fluctuations and fish recruitment stability across a marine-freshwater gradient

Investigating the effects of climatic variability on biological diversity, productivity, and stability is key to understanding possible futures for ecosystems under accelerating climate change. A critical question for estuarine ecosystems is, how does climatic variability influence juvenile recruitment of different fish species and life histories that use estuaries as nurseries? Here we examined spatiotemporal abundance trends and environmental responses of 18 fish species that frequently spend the juvenile stage rearing in the San Francisco Estuary, CA, USA. First, we constructed multivariate autoregressive state-space models using age-0 fish abundance, freshwater flow (flow), and sea surface temperature data (SST) collected over four decades. Next, we calculated coefficients of variation (CV) to assess portfolio effects (1) within and among species, life histories (anadromous, marine opportunist, or estuarine dependent), and the whole community; and (2) within and among regions of the estuary. We found that species abundances varied over space and time (increasing, decreasing, or dynamically stable); and in 83% of cases, in response to environmental conditions (wet/dry, cool/warm periods). Anadromous species responded strongly to flow in the upper estuary, marine opportunist species responded to flow and/or SST in the lower estuary, and estuarine dependent species had diverse responses across the estuary. Overall, the whole community when considered across the entire estuary had the lowest CV, and life histories and species provided strong biological insurance to the portfolio (2.4- to 3.5-fold increases in stability, respectively). Spatial insurance also increased stability, although to a lesser extent (up to 1.6-fold increases). Our study advances the notion that fish recruitment stability in estuaries is controlled by biocomplexity-life history diversity and spatiotemporal variation in the environment. However, intensified drought and marine heatwaves may increase the risk of multiple consecutive recruitment failures by synchronizing species dynamics and trajectories via Moran effects, potentially diminishing estuarine nursery function.

Microplastics aggravate the bioaccumulation and toxicity of coexisting contaminants in aquatic organisms: A synergistic health hazard

There are ongoing controversies regarding the effects of microplastics (MPs) on the bioaccumulation and toxicity of coexisting contaminants in aquatic organisms. This study aims to quantitatively evaluate this issue based on 870 endpoints from 40 publications. It was shown that the presence of MPs significantly increased the bioaccumulation of co-contaminants by 31%, with high statistical power and without obvious publication bias. The aggravated bioaccumulation was also revealed by the strongly positive correlation between bioconcentration factors in the presence and the absence of MPs. Furthermore, the subgroup/regression analyses indicated that the vector effect of MPs on other chemicals was affected by multiple factors and their interactions, such as particle size and exposure time. In addition, a relatively comprehensive biomarker profile was recompiled from included studies to assess the changes in toxicity caused by combined exposure. Results confirmed that the presence of MPs obviously exacerbated the toxicity of co-contaminants by 18%, manifested by the potentiated cytotoxicity, endocrine disruption, immunotoxicity and oxidative stress, implying a synergistic health hazard. Ultimately, the mismatches between laboratory and field conditions were discussed, and the recommendations for future research were offered.

Impacts of a Non-indigenous Ecosystem Engineer, the American Beaver (Castor canadensis), in a Biodiversity Hotspot

Non-native species having high per capita impacts in invaded communities are those that modulate resource availability and alter disturbance regimes in ways that are biologically incompatible with the native biota. In areas where it has been introduced by humans, American beaver (Castor canadensis) is an iconic example of such species due to its capacity to alter trophic dynamics of entire ecosystems and create new invasional pathways for other non-native species. The species is problematic in several watersheds within the Southern California-Northern Baja California Coast Ecoregion, a recognized hotspot of biodiversity, due to its ability to modify habitat in ways that favor invasive predators and competitors over the region's native species and habitat. Beaver was deliberately introduced across California in the mid-1900s and generally accepted as non-native to the region up to the early 2000s; however, articles promoting the idea that beaver may be a natural resident have gained traction in recent years, due in large part to the species' charismatic nature rather than by presentation of sound evidence. Here, we discuss the problems associated with beaver disturbance and its effects on conserving the region's native fauna and flora. We refute arguments underlying the claim that beaver is native to the region, and review paleontological, zooarchaeological, and historical survey data from renowned field biologists and naturalists over the past ~160 years to show that no evidence exists that beaver arrived by any means other than deliberate human introduction. Managing this ecosystem engineer has potential to reduce the richness and abundance of other non-native species because the novel, engineered habitat now supporting these species would diminish in beaver-occupied watersheds. At the same time, hydrologic functionality would shift toward more natural, ephemeral conditions that favor the regions' native species while suppressing the dominance of the most insidious invaders.

Evidence-based meta-analysis of the genotoxicity induced by microplastics in aquatic organisms at environmentally relevant concentrations

Microplastics (MPs) attract global concern due to their ubiquitous existence in aquatic environments. However, the genotoxic effect of MPs on aquatic organisms in the natural environment remains controversial. Therefore, this meta-analysis was conducted by recompiling 44 individual studies from 12 publications to determine whether MPs could induce genotoxicity in aquatic organisms at environmentally relevant concentrations (≤1 mg/L, median = 0.5 mg/L). Multiple genotoxic endpoints were involved, including the percentage of DNA in tail (TDNA%), tail length (TL), olive tail moment (OTM), and the number of micronuclei (NM), and their increases represented the biologically adverse effects (i.e. genotoxicity). The results showed that all included endpoints tended to increase after exposure to MPs, among which TDNA%, TL and NM were significantly increased by 20%, 32% and 81% compared with the control group, respectively. The overall estimate of all endpoints in the MPs-treated groups was remarkably increased by 24%, with high statistical power and no obvious publication bias, suggesting the evident genotoxicity caused by MPs. In addition, the magnitudes of MPs-induced genotoxicity were independent of selected endpoint, MP composition, morphology, exposure concentration and duration, but closely correlated with particle size, living habitat and tested species. Overall, this work provided a reference for the health risk assessment of MPs in the natural environment, contributing to our understanding the action mode of MPs at environmentally relevant concentrations.

Not All Rivers Are Created Equal: The Importance of Spring-Fed Rivers under a Changing Climate

In the Western United States, volcanic spring-fed rivers are anticipated to become increasingly more important for salmonids and other native fishes, as these rivers will retain coldwater habitats as the climate warms. Despite this, little is known about the hydro-biogeochemical interactions within these ecosystems. A review of existing literature on spring-fed rivers, coupled with a decade of research on volcanic spring-fed rivers of northern California, finds that these systems are exceptionally productive and exhibit stable environmental conditions. These unique conditions stem from hydrogeologic processes typical of young volcanic terrains. Aquatic macrophytes, common to some nutrient-rich spring-fed systems, play a disproportionate role in hydrologic and geomorphic processes by facilitating ecological interactions and velocity conditions that improve juvenile salmonid growth. We find that volcanic spring-fed rivers are also resilient to climate change, due not only to their ability to dampen water temperature changes through deep groundwater flow but also because of their nutrient-driven high ecosystem productivity, which may enable coldwater species to metabolically compensate for marginal increases in water temperature. Understanding the fundamental geomorphic and ecological differences between these rare ecosystems and their numerically dominant runoff rivers is essential for developing long-term conservation strategies for coldwater species under a rapidly changing climate.

The Role of Climate Changes in the Spread of Freshwater Fishes: Implications for Alien Cool and Warm-Water Species in a Mediterranean Basin

In running waters, under climate change conditions, the combined effect of water warming and decreasing flow rates may encourage colonisation by invasive cool and warm-water fish species. The aim of the study was to analyze the potential climate change effects on the spread of four invasive alien fishes in the Tiber River basin, taking into account the effects of river fragmentation. Fish and environmental data collected in 91 sites over the years 1998–2018, were used to analyze temporal changes in their habitat requirements. A multivariate analysis was conducted, and the hypothesis of a range expansion towards the upstream reaches has been tested. For Barbus barbus, Gobio gobio, Padogobius bonelli and Pseudorasbora parva population abundances and body condition were analyzed. Detectability, occupancy, local extinction and colonization probabilities were estimated. We showed that B. barbus and P. bonelli have significantly extended their range toward upstream. P. parva did not move toward higher altitudes significantly, suggesting that, at this stage, the species has probably reached an equilibrium. River fragmentation, elevation, water temperature and average current speed seem to be major determinants in colonization processes, affecting the dispersal ability of the species. Not surprisingly for species introduced in relatively recent times, the colonization probabilities were much higher than extinction probabilities. Our results provided evidence for some synergistic effects between climate changes and alien fish species invasions, in terms of species range shifts mediated by rising water temperatures, although they should be interpreted cautiously, taking into account that these species most likely were not yet stabilized.

Genetic diversity assessment for the vulnerable migratory cownose ray Rhinoptera bonasus (Myliobatiformes: Rhinopteridae) from the southwestern Atlantic Ocean

ABSTRACT Rhinoptera bonasus is a bento-pelagic and highly migratory species occurring from southern United States to northern Argentina. Due to overfishing effects, R. bonasus is currently at risk, classified by the IUCN Red List as vulnerable. Considering the lack of molecular data available for R. bonasus, this study aimed to describe the genetic variability and population structure of specimens sampled from three Brazilian coast ecoregions (Amazon ecoregion, Pará; Northeastern ecoregion, Pernambuco and Southeastern ecoregion, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Santa Catarina), through five polymorphic microsatellite markers. Here testing the panmixia hypothesis for Brazilian ecoregions and test natal philopathy. A total of 69 analyzed specimens revealed individual and significant genetic differentiation between the sampled locations. Φ ST (0.12), PCA, DAPC and Bayesian analyses of the genetic population structure revealed at least two distinct genetic R. bonasus groupings. IBD tests were significant, indicating a correlation between genetic and geographical distance among populations, which can be explained by reproductive philopatric behavior. Philopatric behavior associated with R. bonasus mobility may influence the differentiation values observed for all loci in the investigated samples.

First Isolation of a Novel Aquatic Flavivirus from Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and Its In Vivo Replication in a Piscine Animal Model

The first isolation of a flavivirus from fish was made from moribund Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from the Eel River, California, USA. Following the observation of cytopathic effect in a striped-snakehead fish cell line, 35-nm virions with flaviviral morphology were visualized using electron microcopy. Next-generation sequencing and rapid amplification of cDNA ends obtained the complete genome. Reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) confirmed the presence of viral RNA in formalin-fixed tissues from the wild salmon. For the first time, in vivo replication of an aquatic flavivirus was demonstrated following intracoelomic injection in a Chinook salmon model of infection. RT-qPCR demonstrated viral replication in salmon brains up to 15 days postinjection. Infectious virus was then reisolated in culture, fulfilling Rivers' postulates. Only limited replication occurred in the kidneys of Chinook salmon or in tissues of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). The proposed salmon flavivirus (SFV) has a 10.3-kb genome that encodes a rare dual open reading frame, a feature uncharacteristic of classical flaviviruses. Phylogenetic analysis places SFV in a basal position among a new subgroup of recently recognized aquatic and bat flaviviruses distinct from the established mosquito-borne, tick-borne, insect-only, and unknown-vector flavivirus groups. While the pathogenic potential of the virus remains to be fully elucidated, its basal phylogeny and the in vivo infection model will allow SFV to serve as a prototype for aquatic flaviviruses. Ongoing field and laboratory studies will facilitate better understanding of the potential impacts of SFV infection on ecologically and economically important salmonid species.IMPORTANCE Chinook salmon are a keystone fish species of great ecological and commercial significance in their native northern Pacific range and in regions to which they have been introduced. Threats to salmon populations include habitat degradation, climate change, and infectious agents, including viruses. While the first isolation of a flavivirus from wild migrating salmon may indicate an emerging disease threat, characterization of the genome provides insights into the ecology and long evolutionary history of this important group of viruses affecting humans and other animals and into an expanding group of recently discovered aquatic flaviviruses.

Basal tolerance but not plasticity gives invasive springtails the advantage in an assemblage setting

As global climates change, alien species are anticipated to have a growing advantage relative to their indigenous counterparts, mediated through consistent trait differences between the groups. These insights have largely been developed based on interspecific comparisons using multiple species examined from different locations. Whether such consistent physiological trait differences are present within assemblages is not well understood, especially for animals. Yet, it is at the assemblage level that interactions play out. Here, we examine whether physiological trait differences observed at the interspecific level are also applicable to assemblages. We focus on the Collembola, an important component of the soil fauna characterized by invasions globally, and five traits related to fitness: critical thermal maximum, minimum and range, desiccation resistance and egg development rate. We test the predictions that the alien component of a local assemblage has greater basal physiological tolerances or higher rates, and more pronounced phenotypic plasticity than the indigenous component. Basal critical thermal maximum, thermal tolerance range, desiccation resistance, optimum temperature for egg development, the rate of development at that optimum and the upper temperature limiting egg hatching success are all significantly higher, on average, for the alien than the indigenous components of the assemblage. Outcomes for critical thermal minimum are variable. No significant differences in phenotypic plasticity exist between the alien and indigenous components of the assemblage. These results are consistent with previous interspecific studies investigating basal thermal tolerance limits and development rates and their phenotypic plasticity, in arthropods, but are inconsistent with results from previous work on desiccation resistance. Thus, for the Collembola, the anticipated advantage of alien over indigenous species under warming and drying is likely to be manifest in local assemblages, globally.

Managing climate refugia for freshwater fishes under an expanding human footprint

Within the context of climate adaptation, the concept of climate refugia has emerged as a framework for addressing future threats to freshwater fish populations. We evaluated recent climate-refugia management associated with water use and landscape modification by comparing efforts in the US states of Oregon and Massachusetts, for which there are contrasting resource use patterns. Using these examples, we discuss tools and principles that can be applied more broadly. Although many early efforts to identify climate refugia have focused on water temperature, substantial gains in evaluating other factors and processes regulating climate refugia (eg stream flow, groundwater availability) are facilitating refined mapping of refugia and assessment of their ecological value. Major challenges remain for incorporating climate refugia into water-quality standards, evaluating trade-offs among policy options, addressing multiple species' needs, and planning for uncertainty. However, with a procedurally transparent and conceptually sound framework to build upon, recent efforts have revealed a promising path forward.

Coupling environment and physiology to predict effects of climate change on the taxonomic and functional diversity of fish assemblages in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

This study uses species distribution modeling and physiological and functional traits to predict the impacts of climate change on native freshwater fish in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. We modelled future changes in taxonomic and functional diversity in 2050 and 2080 for two scenarios of carbon emissions, identifying areas of great interest for conservation. Climatic-environmental variables were used to model the range of 23 species of native fish under each scenario. The consensus model, followed by the physiological filter of lethal temperature was retained for interpretation. Our study predicts a severe negative impact of climate change on both taxonomic and functional components of ichthyofauna of the Murray-Darling Basin. There was a predicted marked contraction of species ranges under both scenarios. The predictions showed loss of climatically suitable areas, species and functional characters. There was a decrease in areas with high values of functional richness, dispersion and uniqueness. Some traits are predicted to be extirpated, especially in the most pessimistic scenario. The climatic refuges for fish fauna are predicted to be in the southern portion of the basin, in the upper Murray catchment. Incorporating future predictions about the distribution of ichthyofauna in conservation management planning will enhance resilience to climate change.

Genetic composition and conservation status of coastal cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki clarki) in the San Juan Islands, Washington

Understanding the conservation status of native fish populations is increasingly important because they are put at risk by mounting anthropogenic pressures, including climate change. Conventional approaches to assess fish populations can be logistically challenging and cost-prohibitive. As a result, resource managers often make assumptions about the status of fish populations based on limited information. The watersheds of Washington’s San Juan Islands were considered too small to support wild salmonid populations. Many streams flow only seasonally, and all have been subjected to varying degrees of anthropogenic impacts affecting their ecological integrity. Nonetheless, we found that at least five watersheds in the archipelago support populations of coastal cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki clarki). To better understand the conservation status of coastal cutthroat trout populations there, we genotyped approximately fifty trout in each of three watersheds: Cascade and Doe Bay creeks on Orcas Island and Garrison Creek on San Juan Island. Results suggest that two watersheds support native populations and one supports naturalized hatchery fish. The likely native coastal cutthroat trout diversity documented in the two watersheds contributes to the overall diversity of the species, demonstrates that species’ resiliency, and provides justification for conservation measures. Effective management and conservation planning in data-limited situations requires the use of a precautionary approach. Population genetics provide a useful tool for identifying vulnerable fish populations and understanding their relationships with other conspecific populations. This information can inform restoration goals and help identify and prioritize restoration and protection measures.

Individual behaviour and resource use of thermally stressed brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis portend the conservation potential of thermal refugia

Individual aggression and thermal refuge use were monitored in brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in a controlled laboratory to determine how fish size and personality influence time spent in forage and thermal habitat patches during periods of thermal stress. On average, larger and more exploratory fish initiated more aggressive interactions and across all fish there was decreased aggression at warmer temperatures. Individual personality did not explain changes in aggression or habitat use with increased temperature; however, larger individuals initiated comparatively fewer aggressive interactions at warmer temperatures. Occupancy of forage patches generally declined as ambient stream temperatures approached critical maximum and fish increased thermal refuge use, with a steeper decline in forage patch occupancy observed in larger fish. These findings suggest that larger individuals may be more vulnerable to stream temperature rise. Importantly, even at thermally stressful temperatures, all fish periodically left the thermal refuge to forage. This indicates that the success of refugia at increasing population survival during periods of stream temperature rise may depend on the location of thermal refugia relative to forage locations within the larger habitat mosaic. These results provide insights into the potential for thermal refugia to improve population survival and can be used to inform predictions of population vulnerability to climate change.

Climate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all anadromous Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) population units listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories. Units ranked most vulnerable overall were Chinook (O. tshawytscha) in the California Central Valley, coho (O. kisutch) in California and southern Oregon, sockeye (O. nerka) in the Snake River Basin, and spring-run Chinook in the interior Columbia and Willamette River Basins. We identified units with similar vulnerability profiles using a hierarchical cluster analysis. Life history characteristics, especially freshwater and estuary residence times, interplayed with gradations in exposure from south to north and from coastal to interior regions to generate landscape-level patterns within each species. Nearly all listing units faced high exposures to projected increases in stream temperature, sea surface temperature, and ocean acidification, but other aspects of exposure peaked in particular regions. Anthropogenic factors, especially migration barriers, habitat degradation, and hatchery influence, have reduced the adaptive capacity of most steelhead and salmon populations. Enhancing adaptive capacity is essential to mitigate for the increasing threat of climate change. Collectively, these results provide a framework to support recovery planning that considers climate impacts on the majority of West Coast anadromous salmonids.

Assessing the vulnerability of freshwater fishes to climate change in Newfoundland and Labrador

Freshwater fish populations are rapidly declining globally due to the impacts of rapid climate change and existing non-climatic anthropogenic stressors. In response to these drivers, freshwater fishes are responding by shifting their distribution range, altering the timing of migration and spawning and through demographic processes. By 2050, the mean daily air temperature is predicted to increase by 2 to 3 degrees C in insular Newfoundland and by 3 to 4 degrees C in Labrador. Mean daily precipitation is also projected to increase in all locations, with increased intensity projected for several regions. To mitigate negative consequences of these changes, managers require analytical approaches that describe the vulnerability of fish to climate change. To address this need, the current study adopts the National Marine Fisheries Service vulnerability assessment framework to characterize the vulnerability of freshwater fishes in Newfoundland and Labrador. Twelve vulnerability indicators were developed from an extensive literature review and applied to the assessment. Experts were solicited using an online questionnaire survey and scores for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were collated and analyzed to derive a final vulnerability score and rank for each species. The analysis showed one species to be of high-very high vulnerability, two species were highly vulnerable while four species were moderately vulnerable to climate change. The result provides insight into the factors that drive vulnerability of freshwater fishes in the region, this information is significant to decision-makers and other stakeholders engaged in managing freshwater fish resources in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Drought attenuates the impact of fish on aquatic macroinvertebrate richness and community composition

Identifying ecological niche filters that shape species community composition is a critical first step in understanding the relative contributions of deterministic and stochastic processes in structuring communities. Systems with harsh ecological filters often have a more deterministic basis to community structure. Although these filters are often treated as static, investigations into their stability through time are rare, particularly in combination with extreme forms of environmental change such as drought.We examined the richness and composition of aquatic macroinvertebrate communities from 36 ponds over four years during the onset of a megadrought to answer the following questions: (1) what are the relative influences of non-native fish presence and pond permanence in structuring communities? And (2) how do the magnitudes of such filters vary through time?As predicted, fish presence had a strong, negative effect on both alpha and gamma diversity, lowering average invertebrate richness in pond communities by 23%. However, fish presence and sample year interacted to determine both richness and taxa composition: as drought conditions intensified, the effects of fish weakened such that there were no differences in the richness or composition between fish and fishless ponds by the later sampling years. Moreover, large-bodied invertebrate groups - often considered highly vulnerable to fish predation - were detected within fish-occupied sites by the final year of the study.This pattern was associated with progressive decreases in precipitation due to a severe drought in California, emphasizing the importance of exogenous, regional factors in moderating the strength of biotic niche filters on local community structure over time. Given that all detected fish species were non-native, these results also have application to understanding and forecasting changes in the diversity of native insects and other aquatic invertebrates.

Assessment of multiple stressors on the growth of larval green sturgeon Acipenser medirostris: implications for recruitment of early life-history stages

Early developmental stages of fishes are particularly sensitive to changes in environmental variables that affect physiological processes such as metabolism and growth. Both temperature and food availability have significant effects on the growth and survival of larval and juvenile fishes. As climate change and anthropogenic disturbances influence sensitive rearing environments of fishes it is unlikely that they will experience changes in temperature or food availability in isolation. Therefore, it is critical that we determine the effects of each of these potential stressors on larval growth and development, as well as understand the additive, synergistic or antagonistic effects of both. We reared threatened green sturgeon Acipenser medirostris (initial age ca. 32 days post hatch) at four temperatures (11, 13, 16 and 19°C) and two food availability rates (100% and 40% of optimal) to assess the effects of these stressors and their interactions on larval growth. We compared the overall size (fork length, total length and mass), growth rates (cm day^-1 and g day^-1 ) and relative condition factor of these larval and juvenile fish at 3 week intervals for up to 12 weeks. Our results indicated that temperature and food availability both had significant effects on growth and condition and that there was a significant interaction between the two. Fish reared with limited food availability exhibited similar patterns in growth rates to those reared with elevated food rates, but the effects of temperature were greatly attenuated when fish were food-limited. Also, the effects of temperature on condition were reversed when fish were reared with restricted food, such that fish reared at 19°C exhibited the highest relative condition when fed optimally, but the lowest relative condition when food was limited. These data are critical for the development of relevant bioenergetics models, which are needed to link the survival of larval sturgeons with historic environmental regimes, pinpoint temperature ranges for optimal survival and help target future restoration sites that will be important for the recovery of sturgeon populations.

A framework for the identification of hotspots of climate change risk for mammals

As rates of global warming increase rapidly, identifying species at risk of decline due to climate impacts and the factors affecting this risk have become key challenges in ecology and conservation biology. Here, we present a framework for assessing three components of climate-related risk for species: vulnerability, exposure and hazard. We used the relationship between the observed response of species to climate change and a set of intrinsic traits (e.g. weaning age) and extrinsic factors (e.g. precipitation seasonality within a species geographic range) to predict, respectively, the vulnerability and exposure of all data-sufficient terrestrial non-volant mammals (3,953 species). Combining this information with hazard (the magnitude of projected climate change within a species geographic range), we identified global hotspots of species at risk from climate change that includes the western Amazon basin, south-western Kenya, north-eastern Tanzania, north-eastern South Africa, Yunnan province in China, and mountain chains in Papua-New Guinea. Our framework identifies priority areas for monitoring climate change effects on species and directing climate mitigation actions for biodiversity.

Influence of adaptive capacity on the outcome of climate change vulnerability assessment

Climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) has become a mainstay conservation decision support tool. CCVAs are recommended to incorporate three elements of vulnerability – exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity – yet, lack of data frequently leads to the latter being excluded. Further, weighted or unweighted scoring schemes, based on expert opinion, may be applied. Comparisons of these approaches are rare. In a CCVA for 17 Australian lizard species, we show that membership within three vulnerability categories (low, medium and high) generally remained similar regardless of the framework or scoring scheme. There was one exception however, where, under the warm/dry scenario for 2070, including adaptive capacity lead to five fewer species being classified as highly vulnerable. Two species, Eulamprus leuraensis and E. kosciuskoi, were consistently ranked the most vulnerable, primarily due to projected losses in climatically suitable habitat, narrow thermal tolerance and specialist habitat requirements. Our findings provide relevant information for prioritizing target species for conservation and choosing appropriate conservation actions. We conclude that for the species included in this study, the framework and scoring scheme used had little impact on the identification of the most vulnerable species. We caution, however, that this outcome may not apply to other taxa or regions.

Climate change vulnerability for species-Assessing the assessments

Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available.

Two sides of a coin: Effects of climate change on the native and non-native distribution of Colossoma macropomum in South America

Climate change and species invasions interact in nature, disrupting biological communities. Based on this knowledge, we simultaneously assessed the effects of climate change on the native distribution of the Amazonian fish Colossoma macropomum as well as on its invasiveness across river basins of South America, using ecological niche modeling. We used six niche models within the ensemble forecast context to predict the geographical distribution of C. macropomum for the present time, 2050 and 2080. Given that this species has been continuously introduced into non-native South American basins by fish farming activities, we added the locations of C. macropomum farms into the modeling process to obtain a more realistic scenario of its invasive potential. Based on modelling outputs we mapped climate refuge areas at different times. Our results showed that a plenty of climatically suitable areas for the occurrence of C. macropomum occurrence are located outside the original basins at the present time and that its invasive potential is greatly amplified by fish farms. Simulations of future geographic ranges revealed drastic range contraction in the native region, implying concerns not only with respect to the species conservation but also from a socio-economic perspective since the species is a cornerstone of artisanal and commercial fisheries in the Amazon. Although the invasive potential is projected to decrease in the face of climate change, climate refugia will concentrate in Paraná River, Southeast Atlantic and East Atlantic basins, putting intense, negative pressures on the native fish fauna these regions. Our findings show that short and long-term management actions are required for: i) the conservation of natural stocks of C. macropomum in the Amazon, and ii) protecting native fish fauna in the climate refuges of the invaded regions.

Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species' climate-change vulnerability

Climate-change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species' vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. We took a more comprehensive approach that incorporates exposure, sensitivity, and capacity to adapt to climate change. We applied our approach to anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and nonanadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), threatened salmonids within the Columbia River Basin (U.S.A.). We quantified exposure on the basis of scenarios of future stream temperature and flow, and we represented sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change with metrics of habitat quality, demographic condition, and genetic diversity. Both species were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change at low elevations and in their southernmost habitats. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the 2 species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multispecies conservation. Based on our results, we suggest that CCVAs be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework and be used to refine hypotheses, guide research, and compare plausible scenarios of species' vulnerability to climate change.

Sensitivity of river fishes to climate change: The role of hydrological stressors on habitat range shifts

Climate change will predictably change hydrological patterns and processes at the catchment scale, with impacts on habitat conditions for fish. The main goal of this study is to assess how shifts in fish habitat favourability under climate change scenarios are affected by hydrological stressors. The interplay between climate and hydrological stressors has important implications in river management under climate change because management actions to control hydrological parameters are more feasible than controlling climate. This study was carried out in the Tamega catchment of the Douro basin. A set of hydrological stressor variables were generated through a process-based modelling based on current climate data (2008-2014) and also considering a high-end future climate change scenario. The resulting parameters, along with climatic and site-descriptor variables were used as explanatory variables in empirical habitat models for nine fish species using boosted regression trees. Models were calibrated for the whole Douro basin using 254 fish sampling sites and predictions under future climate change scenarios were made for the Tamega catchment. Results show that models using climatic variables but not hydrological stressors produce more stringent predictions of future favourability, predicting more distribution contractions or stronger range shifts. The use of hydrological stressors strongly influences projections of habitat favourability shifts; the integration of these stressors in the models thinned shifts in range due to climate change. Hydrological stressors were retained in the models for most species and had a high importance, demonstrating that it is important to integrate hydrology in studies of impacts of climate change on freshwater fishes. This is a relevant result because it means that management actions to control hydrological parameters in rivers will have an impact on the effects of climate change and may potentially be helpful to mitigate its negative effects on fish populations and assemblages.

Novel Concordance Between Geographic, Environmental, and Genetic Structure in the Ecological Generalist Prickly Sculpin (Cottus asper) in California

Ecological generalists may contain a wealth of information concerning diversity, ecology, and geographic connectivity throughout their range. We explored these ideas in prickly sculpin (Cottus asper), a small generalist freshwater fish species where coastal forms have potentially undergone radiations into inland lacustrine and riverine environments. Using a 962bp cytochrome b mtDNA marker and 11 microsatellites, we estimated diversity, divergence times, gene flow, and structure among populations at 43 locations throughout California. We then incorporated genetic and GIS data into ecological niche models to assess ecological conditions within identified groups. Though not reciprocally monophyletic, unique mtDNA haplotypes, microsatellite clustering, and measures of isolation by distance (Coastal: r = 0.960, P < 0.001; Inland: r = 0.277, P = 0.148) suggest 2 novel taxonomic groups, Coastal and Inland (constrained to Great Central Valley). Divergence estimates of 41-191 kya combined with the regional biogeographic history suggest geographic barriers are absent between groups since divergence, but ecological niche modeling revealed significant environmental differences (t = 10.84, P < 0.001). Introgressed individuals were also discovered between groups in an ecologically and geographically intermediate region. Population structure was limited, predominately found in tributaries of the San Joaquin basin in the Inland group. Overall, C. asper exhibited substantial genetic diversity, despite its ecological generality, reflecting California's historically unique and complex hydrology. More broadly, this study illustrates variable environments within the range of a generalist species may mask genetic divergences and should not be overlooked in biodiversity assessments.

A New Species of the Bay Goby Genus Eucyclogobius, Endemic to Southern California: Evolution, Conservation, and Decline

A geographically isolated set of southern localities of the formerly monotypic goby genus Eucyclogobius is known to be reciprocally monophyletic and substantially divergent in mitochondrial sequence and nuclear microsatellite-based phylogenies relative to populations to the north along the California coast. To clarify taxonomic and conservation status, we conducted a suite of analyses on a comprehensive set of morphological counts and measures from across the range of Eucyclogobius and describe the southern populations as a new species, the Southern Tidewater Goby, Eucyclogobius kristinae, now separate from the Northern Tidewater Goby Eucyclogobius newberryi (Girard 1856). In addition to molecular distinction, adults of E. kristinae are diagnosed by: 1) loss of the anterior supratemporal lateral-line canals resulting in higher neuromast counts, 2) lower pectoral and branched caudal ray counts, and 3) sets of measurements identified via discriminant analysis. These differences suggest ecological distinction of the two species. Previous studies estimated lineage separation at 2-4 million years ago, and mitochondrial sequence divergence exceeds that of other recognized fish species. Fish from Santa Monica Artesian Springs (Los Angeles County) northward belong to E. newberryi; those from Aliso Creek (Orange County) southward constitute E. kristinae. The lagoonal habitat of Eucyclogobius has been diminished or degraded, leading to special conservation status at state and federal levels beginning in 1980. Habitat of the newly described species has been impacted by a range of anthropogenic activities, including the conversion of closing lagoons to open tidal systems in the name of restoration. In the last 30 years, E. kristinae has only been observed in nine intermittently occupied lagoonal systems in northern San Diego County; it currently persists in only three sites. Thus, the new species is in imminent danger of extinction and will require ongoing active management.

Extending Vulnerability Assessment to Include Life Stages Considerations

Species are experiencing a suite of novel stressors from anthropogenic activities that have impacts at multiple scales. Vulnerability assessment is one tool to evaluate the likely impacts that these stressors pose to species so that high-vulnerability cases can be identified and prioritized for monitoring, protection, or mitigation. Commonly used semi-quantitative methods lack a framework to explicitly account for differences in exposure to stressors and organism responses across life stages. Here we propose a modification to commonly used spatial vulnerability assessment methods that includes such an approach, using ocean acidification in the California Current as an illustrative case study. Life stage considerations were included by assessing vulnerability of each life stage to ocean acidification and were used to estimate population vulnerability in two ways. We set population vulnerability equal to: (1) the maximum stage vulnerability and (2) a weighted mean across all stages, with weights calculated using Lefkovitch matrix models. Vulnerability was found to vary across life stages for the six species explored in this case study: two krill–Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, pteropod–Limacina helicina, pink shrimp–Pandalus jordani, Dungeness crab–Metacarcinus magister and Pacific hake–Merluccius productus. The maximum vulnerability estimates ranged from larval to subadult and adult stages with no consistent stage having maximum vulnerability across species. Similarly, integrated vulnerability metrics varied greatly across species. A comparison showed that some species had vulnerabilities that were similar between the two metrics, while other species’ vulnerabilities varied substantially between the two metrics. These differences primarily resulted from cases where the most vulnerable stage had a low relative weight. We compare these methods and explore circumstances where each method may be appropriate.

Temperature effects on hatching and viability of Juvenile Gill Lice, Salmincola californiensis

Salmonids of the genus Oncorhynchus, distributed throughout the Pacific Rim, can be infected by the gill lice species Salmincola californiensis (Dana, 1852), which makes them one of the most broadly distributed gill lice species. Despite their broad distribution and valuable obligate salmonid hosts, relatively little is known about S. californiensis. We evaluated effects of temperature on timing of S. californiensis hatching and survival of copepodids, and provide information on brood size and variability. Our results suggest that temperature was a primary driver of timing of S. californiensis hatching and post-hatching survival. Prior to this study, the free-swimming stage of S. californiensis was reported to survive approximately 2 days without a suitable host. We observed active copepodids 13 days after hatch with some individuals from most (>90%) viable egg sacs at all temperature treatments surviving ≥5 days. Our findings indicate that warmer temperatures could increase development rates of gill lice at certain life stages, potentially increasing fecundity. This information coupled with predictions that warmer water temperatures could intensify crowding of coldwater fishes, stress, and parasite transmission suggests that climate change could exacerbate negative effects of S. californiensis on ecologically and economically important salmonids.

Assessing Potential Conservation and Restoration Areas of Freshwater Fish Fauna in the Indian River Basins

Conservation efforts globally are skewed toward terrestrial ecosystems. To date, conservation of aquatic ecosystems, in particular fish fauna, is largely neglected. We provide a country-wide assessment of Indian river ecosystems in order to identify and prioritize areas for protection and restoration of freshwater fish fauna. Using various biodiversity and anthropogenic attributes, coupled with tools of ecological modeling, we delineated areas for fish fauna conservation and restoration in the 20 major river basins of India. To do this, we used prioritization analyses and reserve selection algorithms to derive conservation value index (CVI) and vulnerability index (VI) of the river basins. CVI was estimated using endemicity, rarity, conservation value, and taxonomic singularity, while VI was estimated using a disturbance index derived from percent geographic area of the basin under human settlements, human population density, predominant land use, and total number of exotic fish species in each basin. The two indices, CVI and VI, were converted into geo-referenced maps, and each map was super-imposed onto species richness and forest cover maps, respectively. After superimposition, areas with high CVI and low VI shade intensities were delineated for conservation, while areas with high CVI and high VI shade intensities were demarcated for restoration. In view of the importance of freshwater fish for human livelihoods and consumption, and ecosystems of India's rivers, we call for urgent attention to the conservation of their fish fauna along with restoration of their degraded habitats.

Mediating Water Temperature Increases Due to Livestock and Global Change in High Elevation Meadow Streams of the Golden Trout Wilderness

Rising temperatures due to climate change are pushing the thermal limits of many species, but how climate warming interacts with other anthropogenic disturbances such as land use remains poorly understood. To understand the interactive effects of climate warming and livestock grazing on water temperature in three high elevation meadow streams in the Golden Trout Wilderness, California, we measured riparian vegetation and monitored water temperature in three meadow streams between 2008 and 2013, including two “resting” meadows and one meadow that is partially grazed. All three meadows have been subject to grazing by cattle and sheep since the 1800s and their streams are home to the imperiled California golden trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss aguabonita). In 1991, a livestock exclosure was constructed in one of the meadows (Mulkey), leaving a portion of stream ungrazed to minimize the negative effects of cattle. In 2001, cattle were removed completely from two other meadows (Big Whitney and Ramshaw), which have been in a “resting” state since that time. Inside the livestock exclosure in Mulkey, we found that riverbank vegetation was both larger and denser than outside the exclosure where cattle were present, resulting in more shaded waters and cooler maximal temperatures inside the exclosure. In addition, between meadows comparisons showed that water temperatures were cooler in the ungrazed meadows compared to the grazed area in the partially grazed meadow. Finally, we found that predicted temperatures under different global warming scenarios were likely to be higher in presence of livestock grazing. Our results highlight that land use can interact with climate change to worsen the local thermal conditions for taxa on the edge and that protecting riparian vegetation is likely to increase the resiliency of these ecosystems to climate change.

Estuarine fish communities respond to climate variability over both river and ocean basins

Estuaries are dynamic environments at the land-sea interface that are strongly affected by interannual climate variability. Ocean-atmosphere processes propagate into estuaries from the sea, and atmospheric processes over land propagate into estuaries from watersheds. We examined the effects of these two separate climate-driven processes on pelagic and demersal fish community structure along the salinity gradient in the San Francisco Estuary, California, USA. A 33-year data set (1980-2012) on pelagic and demersal fishes spanning the freshwater to marine regions of the estuary suggested the existence of five estuarine salinity fish guilds: limnetic (salinity = 0-1), oligohaline (salinity = 1-12), mesohaline (salinity = 6-19), polyhaline (salinity = 19-28), and euhaline (salinity = 29-32). Climatic effects propagating from the adjacent Pacific Ocean, indexed by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the euhaline and polyhaline guilds. Climatic effects propagating over land, indexed as freshwater outflow from the watershed (OUT), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the oligohaline, mesohaline, polyhaline, and euhaline guilds. The effects of OUT propagated further down the estuary salinity gradient than the effects of NPGO that propagated up the estuary salinity gradient, exemplifying the role of variable freshwater outflow as an important driver of biotic communities in river-dominated estuaries. These results illustrate how unique sources of climate variability interact to drive biotic communities and, therefore, that climate change is likely to be an important driver in shaping the future trajectory of biotic communities in estuaries and other transitional habitats.

Patterns of Freshwater Species Richness, Endemism, and Vulnerability in California

The ranges and abundances of species that depend on freshwater habitats are declining worldwide. Efforts to counteract those trends are often hampered by a lack of information about species distribution and conservation status and are often strongly biased toward a few well-studied groups. We identified the 3,906 vascular plants, macroinvertebrates, and vertebrates native to California, USA, that depend on fresh water for at least one stage of their life history. We evaluated the conservation status for these taxa using existing government and non-governmental organization assessments (e.g., endangered species act, NatureServe), created a spatial database of locality observations or distribution information from ~400 data sources, and mapped patterns of richness, endemism, and vulnerability. Although nearly half of all taxa with conservation status (n = 1,939) are vulnerable to extinction, only 114 (6%) of those vulnerable taxa have a legal mandate for protection in the form of formal inclusion on a state or federal endangered species list. Endemic taxa are at greater risk than non-endemics, with 90% of the 927 endemic taxa vulnerable to extinction. Records with spatial data were available for a total of 2,276 species (61%). The patterns of species richness differ depending on the taxonomic group analyzed, but are similar across taxonomic level. No particular taxonomic group represents an umbrella for all species, but hotspots of high richness for listed species cover 40% of the hotspots for all other species and 58% of the hotspots for vulnerable freshwater species. By mapping freshwater species hotspots we show locations that represent the top priority for conservation action in the state. This study identifies opportunities to fill gaps in the evaluation of conservation status for freshwater taxa in California, to address the lack of occurrence information for nearly 40% of freshwater taxa and nearly 40% of watersheds in the state, and to implement adequate protections for freshwater taxa where they are currently lacking.