The potential cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine in elderly people and clinical risk groups in the UK: a lifetime multi-cohort model

Cost effectiveness of quadrivalent influenza vaccines in the elderly population of Malaysia

The economic burden of influenza is a significant issue within healthcare system, related to higher medical costs particularly among the elderly. Yet, influenza vaccination rates in the elderly in Malaysia were considerably low as it is not part of Malaysia's national immunization program, with substantial mortality and morbidity consequences. Therefore, we conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) for the elderly in Malaysia compared with the current no-vaccination policy. A static cost-utility model, with a lifetime horizon based on age, was used for the analysis to assess the cost-effectiveness and health outcomes associated with QIV. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to test the effects of variations in the parameters. The use of QIV in Malaysia's elderly population would prevent 66,326 potential influenza cases and 888 potential deaths among the elderly, leading to 10,048 potential quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. The QIV would also save over USD 4.4 million currently spent on influenza-related hospitalizations and reduce productivity losses by approximately USD 21.6 million. The ICER per QALY gained from a third-party payer's perspective would be USD 2216, which is lower than the country's gross domestic product per capita. A QIV-based vaccination program in the elderly was found to be highly cost-effective, therefore would reduce the financial burden of managing influenza and reduce pre-mature death related to this disease.

Cost-effectiveness of the adjuvanted quadrivalent influenza vaccine in the elderly Belgian population

BACKGROUND

Between 2015 and 2019, when 62% of Belgian adults aged ≥ 65 years were vaccinated with standard quadrivalent influenza vaccines, influenza caused an average of 3,905 hospitalizations and 347 premature deaths per year in older adults. The objective of the present analysis was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the adjuvanted quadrivalent influenza vaccine (aQIV) compared to the standard (SD-QIV) and high-dose (HD-QIV) vaccines in elderly Belgians.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The analysis was based on a static cost-effectiveness model that captured the evolution of patients infected with influenza and was customized with available national data.

RESULTS

Vaccinating adults aged ≥ 65 years with aQIV instead of SD-QIV would decrease the number of hospitalizations by 530 and the number of deaths by 66 in the 2023-2024 influenza season. aQIV was cost-effective compared to SD-QIV with an incremental cost of €15,227/quality-adjusted life year (QALY). aQIV is cost-saving when compared to HD-QIV in the subgroup of institutionalized elderly adults who were granted reimbursement for this vaccine.

CONCLUSION

In a health care system striving to improve the prevention of infectious diseases, a cost-effective vaccine such as aQIV is a key asset to reduce the number of influenza-related hospitalizations and premature deaths in older adults.

PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY

A flu vaccine containing a unique immune boosting additive reduces medical spending by reducing flu hospitalizations and early deaths in the elderly.

Comparisons in the Health and Economic Assessments of Using Quadrivalent Versus Trivalent Influenza Vaccines: A Systematic Literature Review

OBJECTIVES

Seasonal influenza vaccines protect against 3 (trivalent influenza vaccine [IIV3]) or 4 (quadrivalent influenza vaccine [IIV4]) viruses. IIV4 costs more than IIV3, and there is a trade-off between incremental cost and protection. This is especially the case in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) with limited budgets; previous reviews have not identified studies of IIV4-IIV3 comparisons in LMICs. We summarized the literature that compared health and economic outcomes of IIV4 and IIV3, focused on LMICs.

METHODS

We systematically searched 5 databases for articles published before October 6, 2021, that modeled health or economic effects of IIV4 versus IIV3. We abstracted data and compared findings among countries and models.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight studies fit our selection criteria; 10 included LMICs. Most studies (N = 31) reported that IIV4 was cost-saving or cost-effective compared with IIV3; we observed no difference in health or economic outcomes between LMICs and other countries. Based on cost differences of influenza vaccines, only one study compared coverage of IIV3 with IIV4 and reported that the maximum IIV4 price that would still yield greater public health impact than IIV3 was 13% to 22% higher than IIV3.

CONCLUSIONS

When vaccination coverage with IIV4 and IIV3 is the same, IIV4 tends to be not only more effective but more cost-effective than IIV3, even with relatively high price differences between vaccine types. Alternatively, where funding is limited as in most LMICs, higher vaccine coverage can be achieved with IIV3 than IIV4, which could result in more favorable health and economic outcomes.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Cell Versus Egg-Based Seasonal Influenza Vaccination in Children and Adults in Argentina

Background: Quadrivalent cell-based influenza vaccines (QIVc) avoid egg-adaptive mutations and can be more effective than traditional quadrivalent egg-based influenza vaccines (QIVe). This analysis compared the cost-effectiveness of QIVc and QIVe in Argentinian populations < 65 years old from the payer and societal perspectives. Methods: A static decision tree model compared the costs and health benefits of vaccination with QIVc vs. QIVe using a one-year time horizon. The relative vaccine effectiveness of QIVc vs. QIVe was assumed to be 8.1% for children and 11.4% for adults. An alternative high egg-adaptation scenario was also assessed. Model inputs were sourced from Argentina or the international literature. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Results: Compared to QIVe, QIVc would prevent 17,857 general practitioner visits, 2418 complications, 816 hospitalizations, and 12 deaths per year. From the payers’ perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life years gained was USD12,214 in the base case and USD2311 in the high egg-adaptation scenario. QIVc was cost-saving from the societal perspective in both scenarios. Conclusions: QIVc in Argentina would be cost-effective relative to QIVe. The potential health benefits and savings would be even higher in high egg-adaptation seasons.

Cost Effectiveness of Quadrivalent Versus Trivalent Inactivated Influenza Vaccines for the Portuguese Elderly Population

Background: quadrivalent inactivated vaccine (QIV) has replaced trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV). In Portugal, TIV is free of charge for risk groups, including older adults (≥65 years old). In its turn, QIV—which provides broader protection as it includes an additional lineage B strain—was introduced in Portugal in October 2018; only since the 2019/20 influenza season has it been provided free of charge for risk groups. This study evaluates the cost effectiveness of switching from TIV to QIV, from the National Health Service perspective, in the Portuguese elderly mainland population. Methods: A decision tree model was developed to compare TIV and QIV, based on Portuguese hospitalization data for the 2015/16 influenza season. The primary health economic outcome under consideration was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). In addition, one-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed. Results: the high cost of QIV (approximately three times the cost of TIV) would lead to a total increment of EUR 5,283,047, and the resulting ICER would be EUR 26,403,007/QALY, above the usual willingness-to-pay threshold. Conclusions: from the National Health Service perspective, our findings reveal that QIV is not cost effective for the Portuguese elderly population due to the high cost. If the QIV costs were the same as the TIV, then QIV would be cost effective.

Systematic Review on the Cost-Effectiveness of Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in Older Adults

OBJECTIVES

Older adults are at high risk of influenza-related complications or hospitalization. The purpose of this systematic review is to assess the relative cost-effectiveness of all influenza vaccine options for older adults.

METHODS

This systematic review identified economic evaluation studies assessing the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccines in adults ≥65 years of age from 5 literature databases. Two reviewers independently selected, extracted, and appraised relevant studies using the JBI Critical Appraisal Checklist for Economic Evaluations and Heyland's generalizability checklist. Costs were converted to 2019 Canadian dollars and adjusted for inflation and purchasing power parity.

RESULTS

A total of 27 studies were included. There were 18 comparisons of quadrivalent inactivated vaccine (QIV) versus trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV): 5 showed QIV dominated TIV (ie, lower costs and higher health benefit), and 13 showed the results depended on willingness to pay (WTP). There were 9 comparisons of high-dose TIV (TIV-HD) versus TIV: 5 showed TIV-HD dominated TIV, and 4 showed the results depended on WTP. There were 8 comparisons of adjuvanted TIV (TIV-ADJ) versus TIV: 4 showed TIV-ADJ dominated TIV, and 4 showed the results depended on WTP. There were few pairwise comparisons among QIV, TIV-HD, and TIV-ADJ.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence suggests QIV, TIV-HD, and TIV-ADJ are cost-effective against TIV for a WTP threshold of $50 000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Future studies should include new and existing vaccine options for broad age ranges and use more robust methodologies-such as real-world evaluations or modeling studies accounting for methodological, structural, and parameter uncertainty.

Cost-Effectiveness of Extending the National Influenza Vaccination Program in South Korea: Does Vaccination of Older Adults Provide Health Benefits to the Entire Population?

The South Korean government has successfully improved influenza vaccination coverage for individuals aged 65 years or older as part of its National Immunization Program (NIP). Those aged 50–64 years without funded vaccination care have significantly lower vaccination rates and face a substantial risk of influenza-related complications. We use a dynamic epidemiological and economic model to investigate the cost-effectiveness of expanding the universal vaccine fund to include those aged 50–64. The epidemiological model is estimated using the susceptibility-infection-recovery model and influenza and influenza-like illness incidence rates, which were calculated by the National Health Insurance Service–National Sample Cohort from the 2008/09 to 2012/13 influenza seasons but excluding the 2009/10 season for pandemic influenza A (H1N1). The decision tree economic model is assessed from societal and healthcare sector perspectives. The proposed policy would eliminate 340,000 annual influenza cases and prevent 119 unnecessary deaths. From a societal perspective, the proposed policy would reduce costs by USD 68 million. From a healthcare perspective, the cost is USD 4318 per quality-adjusted life years. Within the study range, sensitivity analyses found consistent cost-effectiveness results. The influenza vaccine for adults aged 50–64 appears to be cost-saving or cost-effective and, thus, should be considered for the NIP.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination for elderly people

For elderly people who have low incidence of influenza, calculation of credible vaccine effectiveness (VE) sometimes becomes difficult. Currently, VE for elderly people is insufficient to ascertain the precise efficacy specifically. Cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination of elderly people is discussed widely in terms of topics and areas. This report describes research results demonstrating influenza vaccination effectiveness among elderly people based on recent findings. Newly available influenza vaccination for elderly people appears to be cost-effective compared with that of trivalent inactiveted influenza vaccine. Overall, for all influenza virus types, it remains unclear whether influenza vaccination shows high VE. A decreasing effect of repeated vaccination was confirmed partially by test negative design and a serological study of cohorts. However, some studies have found no such decreasing effect. Measurement of VE and subsequent analysis of the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination for elderly people requires long-term monitoring using serological studies and test negative design.

Influenza Vaccination for the Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in the Americas: Consensus document of the Inter-American Society of Cardiology and the Word Heart Federation

Background

Cardiovascular mortality is decreasing but remains the leading cause of death world-wide. Respiratory infections such as influenza significantly contribute to morbidity and mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease. Despite of proven benefits, influenza vaccination is not fully implemented, especially in Latin America.

Objective

The aim was to develop a regional consensus with recommendations regarding influenza vaccination and cardiovascular disease.

Methods

A multidisciplinary team composed by experts in the management and prevention of cardiovascular disease from the Americas, convened by the Inter-American Society of Cardiology (IASC) and the World Heart Federation (WHF), participated in the process and the formulation of statements. The modified RAND/UCLA methodology was used. This document was supported by a grant from the WHF.

Results

An extensive literature search was divided into seven questions, and a total of 23 conclusions and 29 recommendations were achieved. There was no disagreement among experts in the conclusions or recommendations.

Conclusions

There is a strong correlation between influenza and cardiovascular events. Influenza vaccination is not only safe and a proven strategy to reduce cardiovascular events, but it is also cost saving. We found several barriers for its global implementation and potential strategies to overcome them.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Switching from Trivalent to Quadrivalent Seasonal Influenza Vaccine in Argentina

The burden of seasonal influenza disease in Argentina is considerable. The cost-effectiveness of trivalent (TIV) versus quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) in Argentina was assessed. An age-stratified, static, decision-tree model compared the costs and benefits of vaccination for an average influenza season. Main outcomes included: numbers of influenza cases; general practitioner (GP) visits; complicated ambulatory cases; hospitalizations; deaths averted; and costs per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. Epidemiological data from Argentina for 2014–2019 were used to determine the proportion of A and B strain cases, and the frequency of mismatch between vaccine and circulating B strains. To manage uncertainty, one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Switching from TIV to QIV would prevent 19,128 influenza cases, 16,164 GP visits, 2440 complicated ambulatory cases, 524 hospitalizations, and 82 deaths. Incremental cost–effectiveness ratios (ICERs) per QALY were 13,590 and 11,678 USD from the payer’s and societal perspectives, respectively. The greatest health benefits and direct medical cost savings would occur in ≥ 65-year-olds. One-way sensitivity analyses demonstrated the principal drivers of ICER to be vaccine acquisition costs, environmental B strain predominance, and B strain mismatch. Introducing QIV in Argentina would be beneficial and cost-effective relative to TIV, particularly in older adults.

Influenza vaccination: protecting the most vulnerable

Influenza virus infection causes seasonal epidemics and occasional pandemics, leading to huge morbidity and mortality worldwide. Vaccination against influenza is needed annually as protection from constantly mutating strains is required. Groups at high risk of poor outcomes include the elderly, the very young, pregnant women and those with chronic health conditions. However, vaccine effectiveness in the elderly is generally poor due to immunosenescence and may be altered due to "original antigenic sin". Strategies to overcome these challenges in the elderly include high-dose or adjuvant vaccines. Other options include vaccinating healthcare workers and children as this reduces community-level influenza transmission. Current guidelines in the UK are that young children receive a live attenuated nasal spray vaccine, adults aged >65 years receive an adjuvanted trivalent inactivated vaccine and adults aged <65 years with comorbidities receive a quadrivalent inactivated vaccine. The goal of a universal influenza vaccine targeting conserved regions of the virus and avoiding the need for annual vaccination is edging closer with early-phase trials under way.

Comparison of the immunogenicity and safety of quadrivalent and tetravalent influenza vaccines in children and adolescents

BACKGROUND

Children and adolescents are susceptible to influenza. Vaccination is the most important strategy for preventing influenza, yet there are few studies on the immunogenicity and safety of quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (QIV) containing two A strains (H1N1 and H3N2) and two B lineages (Victoria and Yamagata). Therefore, to further clarify the immunogenicity and safety of QIV in children and adolescents, a meta-analysis was performed to provide a reference for the development of influenza prevention strategies.

METHODS

PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane Library were searched for articles published as of February 12, 2019. Random clinical trials comparing the immunogenicity and safety of QIV and TIV among children and adolescents were selected. The main outcomes were comparisons of immunogenicity (seroprotection rate [SPR] and seroconversion rate [SCR] and adverse events using risk ratios (RRs). The meta-analysis was performed using random-effects models.

RESULTS

Among the 6 months up to 3 years group, QIV showed a higher SPR for B lineages than for TIV-B/Yamagata, with pooled RRs of 3.07 (95% CI: 2.58-3.66) and 1.06 (95% CI: 1.01-1.11), respectively. For the 3 years through 18 years, QIV had a higher SCR and SPR for the Yamagata lineage than for TIV-B/Victoria, with pooled RRs of 2.30 (95% CI: 1.83-2.88) and 1.16 (95% CI: 1.03-1.30), respectively. Compared to TIV-B/Yamagata, a higher SCR and SPR for the Victoria lineage was found for QIV, with RRs of 3.09 (95% CI: 1.99-4.78) and 1.72 (95% CI: 1.22-2.41), respectively. Regarding adverse events, only pain was more frequently reported for QIV than TIV ; the RR was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.02-1.17).

CONCLUSIONS

The immunogenicity of QIV for common ingredients was similar to that of TIV, but the former exhibited significantly higher immunogenicity for the unique lineage. QIV also had the same reliable safety as TIV.

Cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine for elderly population in China

BACKGROUND

Influenza-associated excess death occurred most in the elderly. We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) versus trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) for prevention of influenza infection among elderly population in China.

METHODS

A decision-analytic model was developed to compare 1-year clinical and economic outcomes of three influenza vaccination options (no vaccination, TIV, and QIV) in a hypothetical cohort of Chinese elderly aged 69 years. Outcome measures included cost, influenza infection rate, influenza-related mortality rate, quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) loss, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) from societal perspective. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the uncertainty of model inputs.

RESULTS

Base-case results showed no vaccination was dominated (more costly at higher QALY loss) by TIV and QIV. QIV was more costly (USD56.29 versus USD54.28) with lower influenza infection rate (0.608 versus 0.623), mortality rate (0.00199 versus 0.00204), and QALY loss (0.01213 versus 0.01243) than TIV. QIV was cost-effective compared to TIV with ICER of 6,700 USD/QALY below the willingness-to-pay threshold (29,580 USD/QALY). One-way sensitivity analysis found the cost-effectiveness of QIV was subject to the relative risk of vaccine effectiveness of QIV versus TIV, and TIV would be cost-effective if the relative risk was below 1.05. In 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations, the probabilities of QIV, TIV, and no vaccination to be cost-effective were 86.3%, 13.7%, and 0%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

QIV appears to be a cost-effective option compared to TIV and no influenza vaccination for elderly population in China.

Debate on the compositions of influenza B in northern hemisphere seasonal influenza vaccines

Background

Annual influenza vaccination is the most effective way to prevent influenza. Influenza vaccines have traditionally included the hemagglutinins (HA) and neuraminidases (NA) from the two A viruses (H1N1 and H3N2) and either B Yamagata or B Victoria. Mismatches between circulating isolates of influenza B and the vaccines are very common. Taking 2017/2018 winter in northern hemisphere as an example, this study was designed to find out the reasons for mismatch between the trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) and most of the epidemic isolates at that time, and to discuss if there are some optimized programs for seasonal influenza vaccines.

Methods

HA and NA sequences of the seasonal isolates circulating from December 1, 2017 to February 28, 2018, and in the previously other 7 winters in northern hemisphere from Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) and the influenza database of National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI). Phylogenetic trees and genetic distances were constructed or calculated by using MAFFT and MEGA 6.0 software.

Results

Influenza B composition in the TIV recommendation mismatched most of circulating viruses in 2017/2018 winter; the vaccine strain was from the B/Victoria lineage, while most of epidemic isolates were from the B/Yamagata lineage. The epidemic lineage of influenza B reached its peak a little late in the previous winter might be responsible for this mismatch. During 2010-2018, the mean genetic distances between epidemic isolates of influenza A (H1N1 and H3N2) and the vaccines were no higher than 0.02375 ± 0.00341 in both HA and NA. However, concerning influenza B virus, when forecasting done well, the mean genetic distances between epidemic isolates and the vaccines were no higher than 0.02368 ± 0.00272; otherwise, the distances could reach 0.13695 ± 0.00238.

Conclusion

When applying quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVs) for vaccination, the recommendations of compositions for influenza B could be altered and assessed once in 3 or 4 years; when economic burden was considered intensively and TIVs were utilized, the recommended compositions for influenza B could be announced in April or May, rather than in February or March as now.

Quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine: clinical outcomes in two influenza seasons, historical cohort study

OBJECTIVES

The quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) contains two influenza B antigens (one of each B lineage), while the trivalent vaccine (TIV) contains solely one. As a result, a mismatch between the circulating B lineage and the lineage in the TIV occurs frequently. We aimed to compare the frequency of clinically significant outcomes in a large cohort of vaccinees receiving either TIV or QIV.

METHODS

Historical cohort study of all inactivated influenza vaccinees (aged 3 years and older) in a Health Maintenance Organization insuring 1.2 million individuals, over two influenza seasons in which both vaccines were provided non-selectively. Primary outcome was hospital admissions during the influenza season. Multivariate analysis was performed using logistic regression to adjust for relevant covariates.

RESULTS

Our cohort included 150 518 and 168 296 vaccinees in the first (S1) and second season (S2), respectively. The two influenza seasons were characterized by high Influenza B activity. Of those vaccinated with QIV, 2074 of 49 726 (4.2%) and 6563 of 121 741 (5.4%) were hospitalized compared with 7378 of 100 792 (7.3%) and 3372 of 46 555 (7.2%) of those vaccinated with TIV (S1 and S2, respectively). After multivariate analysis adjusting for several covariates (gender, age, socioeconomic status, chronic morbidity, timing of vaccination), compared with TIV recipients, QIV vaccinees had lower odds for hospitalization (OR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.87-0.98 and OR = 0.89, 95% CI 0.85-0.93) or emergency department visit (OR = 0.91, 95% CI 0.87-0.95 and OR = 0.84, 95% CI 0.81-0.87) in S1 and S2, respectively (p < 0.001). Lower odds of mortality and influenza-like illness were also observed in S2 (OR = 0.61, 95% CI 0.50-0.75 and OR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.90-0.95, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In seasons with relatively high influenza B activity, QIV appeared more protective than TIV in Israel.

Cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccine strategies for the elderly in South Korea

OBJECTIVES

Despite a high vaccine uptake rate of over 80% in South Korea, the disease burden of influenza is still high among the elderly, which may be due to low effectiveness of vaccines. Therefore, the cost-effectiveness of use among the elderly was analyzed in order to compare the current trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) with a quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) or MF59-adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine (ATIV).

METHODS

A static lifetime Markov model was used. It was assumed that the model would be repeated until individuals reached the age of 100. Cost-effectiveness was analyzed across three age groups (65-74 years, 75-84 years, and ≥85 years), and the at-risk group was studied.

RESULTS

Compared to the TIV, the QIV was expected to reduce the number of influenza infections by 342,873, complications by 17,011, hospitalizations by 8,568, and deaths by 2,031. The QIV was highly cost-effective when compared to the TIV, with a base case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) estimated at USD 17,699/QALY (1USD = 1,151KRW), and the ICER decreased with age and was USD 3,431/QALY in the group aged 85 and above. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the ICER was sensitive to the QIV price, the proportion of influenza B, and vaccine mismatching. On the other hand, the ATIV was expected to reduce the number of influenza cases and complications by 1,812,395 and 89,747, respectively, annually, yielding cost-saving among all ages. ATIV price and vaccine efficacy were the most influential parameters for the ICER of ATIV.

CONCLUSIONS

The QIV and ATIV strategies were considered more cost-effective in comparison to the TIV for vaccination strategies implemented for the elderly. However, owing to a lack of data on the effectiveness of ATIV among the elderly, a large-scale effectiveness study is required.

[Description of Influenza B in seasonal epidemics in Spain]

OBJECTIVE

Seasonal influenza epidemics are a major public health concern. They are caused by the influenza A and B viruses; although the A virus is more prominent, influenza B virus infection causes a disease with similar characteristics. There are two phylogenetically distinct influenza B lineages (B/Victoria and B/Yamagata), only one of which is present in the trivalent vaccine formulated each season.

METHODS

Epidemiological data from the Spanish Influenza Surveillance System for 2007 to 2017 were reviewed to establish the relative proportion of each type of virus and the characterization of the B lineages in relation to the composition of the trivalent vaccine.

RESULTS

The median proportion of B (2007-2017) was 27.2% (0.7%-74.8%) vs. 16.3% (0.4%-98.6%) for A-H3 and 44.2% (0.1%-98.0%) for pandemic A-H1N1 (20092017). The B lineages co-circulated in 8/10 seasons and there was mismatch with the B vaccine strain in 4/10 seasons. The B virus was dominant in 2007/08 and 2012/13 throughout Spain. There was a combination of dominance/codominance of influenza B and mismatch with the vaccine lineage in at least one third of epidemic seasons reviewed.

CONCLUSIONS

Epidemiological information on influenza B has been less compiled in comparison with data on the A virus. Influenza virus type B is responsible for a significant number of cases in almost all seasons. The predominant B lineage in each season is unpredictable, affecting the protection conferred by the seasonal vaccine. Spanish epidemiological data support the rationale for a quadrivalent vaccine with both B virus lineages similarly to data from other settings.

Cost Effectiveness of Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccines Compared with Trivalent Influenza Vaccines in Young Children and Older Adults in Korea

INTRODUCTION

Trivalent influenza vaccines (TIVs) are currently reimbursed for subjects aged ≥ 65 years and children between 6 and 59 months of age under a national immunization program in South Korea. Quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVs) are expected to address the potential problem of influenza B-lineage mismatch for TIVs.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this analysis was to compare the cost effectiveness of QIV versus TIV in children aged 6-59 months and older adults ≥ 65 years of age in South Korea.

METHODS

A 1-year static population model was employed to compare the costs and outcomes of a QIV vaccination program compared with TIV in children aged 6-59 months and older adults ≥ 65 years of age in South Korea. Influenza-related parameters (probabilities, health resource use, and costs) were derived from an analysis of the National Health Insurance System claims database between 2010 and 2013 under a broad and narrow set of International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes used to identify influenza. Other inputs were extracted from published literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (2016 South Korean Won [KRW] per quality-adjusted life-year [QALY] gained) were estimated using a 'limited' societal perspective as per the Korean pharmacoeconomic guidelines. QALYs lost due to premature mortality were discounted at 5% annually.

RESULTS

For both age groups combined, under the narrow definition of influenza, QIV is expected to prevent nearly 16,000 (2923 in children and 13,011 in older adults) medically attended influenza cases, nearly 8000 (672 in children, 7048 in older adults) cases of complications, and over 230 (0 in children, 238 in older adults) deaths annually compared with TIV. The impact of using QIV versus TIV in this setting translates into savings of KRW 24 billion (KRW 0.6 billion in children, KRW 23.4 billion in older adults) in annual medical costs, and over 2100 (18 in children, 2084 in older adults) QALYs. Under the broad definition, the corresponding results are over 190,000 (50,697 in children, 140,644 in older adults) influenza cases, over 37,000 (12,623 in children, 24,526 in older adults) complications, 270 deaths (0 in children, 270 in older adults), KRW 94.22 billion (KRW 16 billion in children, KRW 78.2 billion in older adults), and over 3500 QALYs saved (316 in children, 3260 in older adults).

CONCLUSION

The use of QIV over TIV was estimated to not be cost effective in children 6-59 months of age, but cost saving in older adults, using the narrow definition of influenza; however, QIV use was cost saving in both age groups using the broad definition. QIV is expected to yield more benefits in older adults ≥ 65 years of age than in children aged 6-59 months due to higher influenza-related mortality and costs among the older adults. Further analyses considering the indirect effects of influenza vaccination in children are required.

Strategies to maximize influenza vaccine impact in older adults

Older adults are disproportionately affected by influenza morbidity and mortality. In most high income countries, influenza vaccine policies target persons age ≥65 years for influenza vaccination. Many low-resource settings do not utilize seasonal influenza vaccination. Barriers to influenza prevention among older adults around the globe are multiple and some vary between high- and low-resource settings. To maximize influenza prevention in the older adult population, gaps in influenza vaccination coverage and improvements in vaccine efficacy are needed. The focus of this article is on the data for currently available vaccine strategies to maximize influenza vaccine impact, with a focus on high-resource settings. We also discuss novel influenza vaccine strategies needed for older adults worldwide.

Effects of influenza immunization on pneumonia in the elderly

Influenza virus is a common pathogen implicated in respiratory tract infections, annually affecting up to 20% of the general population, and pneumonia is a leading cause of death after influenza infection. Post-influenza pneumonia is especially common in the elderly and chronically ill patients. The risk of post-influenza pneumonia is significantly increased according to the number of concurrent comorbidities. Vaccination is the primary measure used to abate influenza epidemics and associated complications. In meta-analyses, influenza vaccine significantly reduces pneumonia- and influenza-related hospitalizations, with a vaccine effectiveness of 25-53%. However, considering the poor effectiveness of conventional influenza vaccines in the elderly, several highly immunogenic influenza vaccines have been developed. Further evaluations of the comparative effectiveness of diverse vaccine formulations are warranted to assess their utility for preventing influenza infection, post-influenza pneumonia, and related hospitalization/mortality. Based on cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis, influenza vaccination strategies should be tailored in the elderly.

Cost-utility of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine in Brazil - comparison of outcomes from different static model types

Background

Influenza burden in Brazil is considerable with 4.2–6.4 million cases in 2008 and influenza-like-illness responsible for 16.9% of hospitalizations. Cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination may be assessed by different types of models, with limitations due to data availability, assumptions, and modelling approach.

Objective

To understand the impact of model complexity, the cost-utility of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccines in Brazil was estimated using three distinct models: a 1-year decision tree population model with three age groups (FLOU); a more detailed 1-year population model with five age groups (FLORA); and a more complex lifetime multi-cohort Markov model with nine age groups (FLORENCE).

Methods

Analysis 1 (impact of model structure) compared each model using the same data inputs (i.e., best available data for FLOU). Analysis 2 (impact of increasing granularity) compared each model populated with the best available data for that model.

Results

Using the best data for each model, the discounted cost-utility ratio of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine was R$20,428 with FLOU, R$22,768 with FLORA (versus R$20,428 in Analysis 1), and, R$19,257 with FLORENCE (versus R$22,490 in Analysis 1) using a lifetime horizon. Conceptual differences between FLORA and FLORENCE meant the same assumption regarding increased all-cause mortality in at-risk individuals had an opposite effect on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in Analysis 2 versus 1, and a proportionally higher number of vaccinated elderly in FLORENCE reduced this ratio in Analysis 2.

Discussion

FLOU provided adequate cost-effectiveness estimates with data in broad age groups. FLORA increased insights (e.g., in healthy versus at-risk, paediatric, respiratory/non-respiratory complications). FLORENCE provided greater insights and precision (e.g., in elderly, costs and complications, lifetime cost-effectiveness).

Conclusion

All three models predicted a cost per quality-adjusted life year gained for quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine in the range of R$19,257 (FLORENCE) to R$22,768 (FLORA) with the best available data in Brazil (Appendix A).

Cost-effectiveness analysis of quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccines in England

BACKGROUND

As part of the national seasonal influenza vaccination programme in England and Wales, children receive a quadrivalent vaccine offering protection against two influenza A strains and two influenza B strains. Healthy children receive a quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (QLAIV), whilst children with contraindications receive the quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (QIIV). Individuals aged younger than 65 years in the clinical risk populations and elderly individuals aged 65+ years receive either a trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIIV) offering protection from two A strains and one B strain or the QIIV at the choice of their general practitioner. The cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent vaccine programmes is an open question. The original analysis that supported the paediatric programme only considered a trivalent live attenuated vaccine (LAIV). The cost-effectiveness of the QIIV to other patients has not been established. We sought to estimate the cost-effectiveness of these programmes, establishing a maximum incremental total cost per dose of quadrivalent vaccines over trivalent vaccines.

METHODS

We used the same mathematical model as the analysis that recommended the introduction of the paediatric influenza vaccination programme. The incremental cost of the quadrivalent vaccine is the additional cost over that of the existing trivalent vaccine currently in use.

RESULTS

Introducing quadrivalent vaccines can be cost-effective for all targeted groups. However, the cost-effectiveness of the programme is dependent on the choice of target cohort and the cost of the vaccines: the paediatric programme is cost-effective with an increased cost of £6.36 per dose, though an extension to clinical risk individuals younger than 65 years old and further to all elderly individuals means the maximum incremental cost is £1.84 and £0.20 per dose respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Quadrivalent influenza vaccines will bring substantial health benefits, as they are cost-effective in particular target groups.

Cost-effectiveness of inactivated seasonal influenza vaccination in a cohort of Thai children ≤60 months of age

Background

Vaccination is the best measure to prevent influenza. We conducted a cost-effectiveness evaluation of trivalent inactivated seasonal influenza vaccination, compared to no vaccination, in children ≤60 months of age participating in a prospective cohort study in Bangkok, Thailand.

Methods

A static decision tree model was constructed to simulate the population of children in the cohort. Proportions of children with laboratory-confirmed influenza were derived from children followed weekly. The societal perspective and one-year analytic horizon were used for each influenza season; the model was repeated for three influenza seasons (2012–2014). Direct and indirect costs associated with influenza illness were collected and summed. Cost of the trivalent inactivated seasonal influenza vaccine (IIV3) including promotion, administration, and supervision cost was added for children who were vaccinated. Quality-adjusted life years (QALY), derived from literature, were used to quantify health outcomes. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated as the difference in the expected total costs between the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups divided by the difference in QALYs for both groups.

Results

Compared to no vaccination, IIV3 vaccination among children ≤60 months in our cohort was not cost-effective in the introductory year (2012 season; 24,450 USD/QALY gained), highly cost-effective in the 2013 season (554 USD/QALY gained), and cost-effective in the 2014 season (16,200 USD/QALY gained).

Conclusion

The cost-effectiveness of IIV3 vaccination among children participating in the cohort study varied by influenza season, with vaccine cost and proportion of high-risk children demonstrating the greatest influence in sensitivity analyses. Vaccinating children against influenza can be economically favorable depending on the maturity of the program, influenza vaccine performance, and target population.

A systematic review of the health economic consequences of quadrivalent influenza vaccination

BACKGROUND

Quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVs) contain antigens derived from an additional influenza type B virus as compared with currently used trivalent influenza vaccines (TIVs). This should overcome a potential reduced vaccine protection due to mismatches between TIV and circulating B viruses. In this study, we systematically reviewed the available literature on health economic evaluations of switching from TIV to QIV. Areas covered: The databases of Medline and Embase were searched systematically to identify health economic evaluations of QIV versus TIV published before September 2016.A total of sixteen studies were included, thirteen cost-effectiveness analyses and three cost-comparisons. Expert commentary: Published evidence on the cost-effectiveness of QIV suggests that switching from TIV to QIV would be a valuable intervention from both the public health and economic viewpoint. However, more research seems mandatory. Our main recommendations for future research include: 1) more extensive use of dynamic models in order to estimate the full impact of QIV on influenza transmission including indirect effects, 2) improved availability of data on disease outcomes and costs related to influenza type B viruses, and 3) more research on immunogenicity of natural influenza infection and vaccination, with emphasis on cross-reactivity between different influenza B viruses and duration of protection.

Cost-Utility of Quadrivalent Versus Trivalent Influenza Vaccine in Germany, Using an Individual-Based Dynamic Transmission Model

BACKGROUND

Seasonal influenza infection is primarily caused by circulation of two influenza A strain subtypes and strains from two B lineages that vary each year. Trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) contains only one of the two B-lineage strains, resulting in mismatches between vaccine strains and the predominant circulating B lineage. Quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) includes both B-lineage strains. The objective was to estimate the cost-utility of introducing QIV to replace TIV in Germany.

METHODS

An individual-based dynamic transmission model (4Flu) using German data was used to provide realistic estimates of the impact of TIV and QIV on age-specific influenza infections. Cases were linked to health and economic outcomes to calculate the cost-utility of QIV versus TIV, from both a societal and payer perspective. Costs and effects were discounted at 3.0 and 1.5 % respectively, with 2014 as the base year. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Using QIV instead of TIV resulted in additional quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and cost savings from the societal perspective (i.e. it represents the dominant strategy) and an incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of €14,461 per QALY from a healthcare payer perspective. In all univariate analyses, QIV remained cost-effective (ICUR <€50,000). In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, QIV was cost-effective in >98 and >99 % of the simulations from the societal and payer perspective, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This analysis suggests that QIV in Germany would provide additional health gains while being cost-saving to society or costing €14,461 per QALY gained from the healthcare payer perspective, compared with TIV.

Cost-Effectiveness of Quadrivalent versus Trivalent Influenza Vaccine in the United States

BACKGROUND

Designed to overcome influenza B mismatch, new quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVs) contain one additional B strain compared with trivalent influenza vaccines (TIVs).

OBJECTIVE

To examine the expected public health impact, budget impact, and incremental cost-effectiveness of QIV versus TIV in the United States.

METHODS

A dynamic transmission model was used to predict the annual incidence of influenza over the 20-year-period of 2014 to 2034 under either a TIV program or a QIV program. A decision tree model was interfaced with the transmission model to estimate the public health impact and the cost-effectiveness of replacing TIV with QIV from a societal perspective. Our models were informed by published data from the United States on influenza complication probabilities and relevant costs. The incremental vaccine price of QIV as compared with that of TIV was set at US $5.40 per dose.

RESULTS

Over the next 20 years, replacing TIV with QIV may reduce the number of influenza B cases by 27.2% (16.0 million cases), resulting in the prevention of 137,600 hospitalizations and 16,100 deaths and a gain of 212,000 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The net societal budget impact would be US $5.8 billion and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio US $27,411/QALY gained. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, 100% and 96.5% of the simulations fell below US $100,000/QALY and US $50,000/QALY, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Introducing QIV into the US immunization program may prevent a substantial number of hospitalizations and deaths. QIV is also expected to be a cost-effective alternative option to TIV.

Cost-effectiveness of seasonal quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccination in the United States: A dynamic transmission modeling approach

Trivalent inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV3s) protect against 2 A strains and one B lineage; quadrivalent versions (IIV4s) protect against an additional B lineage. The objective was to assess projected health and economic outcomes associated with IIV4 versus IIV3 for preventing seasonal influenza in the US. A cost-effectiveness model was developed to interact with a dynamic transmission model. The transmission model tracked vaccination, influenza cases, infection-spreading interactions, and recovery over 10 y (2012–2022). The cost-effectiveness model estimated influenza-related complications, direct and indirect costs (2013–2014 US$), health outcomes, and cost-effectiveness. Inputs were taken from published/public sources or estimated using regression or calibration. Outcomes were discounted at 3% per year. Scenario analyses tested the reliability of the results. Seasonal vaccination with IIV4 versus IIV3 is predicted to reduce annual influenza cases by 1,973,849 (discounted; 2,325,644 undiscounted), resulting in 12–13% fewer cases and influenza-related complications and deaths. These reductions are predicted to translate into 18,485 more quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) accrued annually for IIV4 versus IIV3. Increased vaccine-related costs ($599 million; 5.7%) are predicted to be more than offset by reduced influenza treatment costs ($699 million; 12.2%), resulting in direct medical cost saving annually ($100 million; 0.6%). Including indirect costs, savings with IIV4 are predicted to be $7.1 billion (5.6%). Scenario analyses predict IIV4 to be cost-saving in all scenarios tested apart from low infectivity, where IIV4 is predicted to be cost-effective. In summary, seasonal influenza vaccination in the US with IIV4 versus IIV3 is predicted to improve health outcomes and reduce costs.

Epidemiology of influenza B in Australia: 2001-2014 influenza seasons

Background

Influenza B is characterised by two antigenic lineages: B/Victoria and B/Yamagata. These lineages circulate together with influenza A during influenza seasons, with varying incidence from year to year and by geographic region.

Objective

To determine the epidemiology of influenza B relative to influenza A in Australia.

Methods

Laboratory‐confirmed influenza notifications between 2001 and 2014 in Australia were obtained from the Australian National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System.

Results

A total of 278 485 laboratory‐confirmed influenza cases were notified during the study period, comprising influenza A (82.2%), B (17.1%) and ‘other and untyped’ (0.7%). The proportion of notifications that were influenza B was highest in five‐ to nine‐year‐olds (27.5%) and lowest in persons aged 85 years and over (11.5%). Of all B notifications with lineage determined, 77.1% were B/Victoria and 22.9% were B/Yamagata infections. Mismatches between the dominant B lineage in a season and the trivalent vaccine B lineage occurred in over one‐third of seasons during the study years. In general, influenza B notifications peaked later than influenza A notifications.

Conclusion

The proportion of circulating influenza B in Australia during 2001‐2014 was slightly lower than the global average and was dominated by B/Victoria. Compared with influenza A, influenza B infection was more common among older children and young adults and less common in the very elderly. Influenza B lineage mismatch with the trivalent vaccine occurred about one‐third of the time.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine in Taiwan: A lifetime multi-cohort model

A government-funded trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) program to prevent seasonal influenza was implemented in Taiwan since 1998. However, mismatch between the vaccine and circulating strains may occur. Alternatively, a quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) includes all 4 influenza lineages could minimize the risk of mismatches. Therefore, QIV could be considered as an alternative strategy to enhance protection against seasonal influenza. The objective of the study was to analyze, from a governmental perspective, the cost-effectiveness of using QIV vs. TIV as a vaccination strategy in Taiwan. A lifetime multi-cohort, static Markov model was constructed with 9 age groups to assess the costs and effectiveness of QIV vs. TIV. Direct costs were obtained from a database released by the Ministry of Health and Welfare. Outcomes included life-years gained, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, influenza cases avoided and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). The discount rate of costs and effectiveness was set at 3.5% and the time horizon used in the model was 100 y. Results show that a vaccination strategy utilizing QIV instead of TIV would bring an additional 10,557 QALYs at an extra cost of US$39.4 million, yielding an ICER of US$3,015.07 per QALY gained. When setting the willingness-to-pay threshold at US$10,000, compared to TIV, the probability that QIV would be cost-effective was 98%. Sensitivity analyses show that ICER was sensitive to the changes of circulation of influenza virus subtypes and vaccine mismatch. From a governmental perspective, the QIV vaccination could be considered as a cost-effective strategy within the context of public health in Taiwan.

The Clinical Impact and Cost Effectiveness of Quadrivalent Versus Trivalent Influenza Vaccination in Finland

BACKGROUND

Trivalent influenza vaccines encompass one influenza B lineage; however, predictions have been unreliable on which of two antigenically distinct circulating lineages will dominate. Quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccines contain strains from both lineages. This analysis assesses the cost effectiveness of switching from trivalent inactivated influenza vaccination (TIV) in Finland to quadrivalent vaccination, using inactivated (QIV) or live-attenuated (Q-LAIV) vaccines.

METHODS

A transmission model simulated the dynamics of influenza infection while accounting for indirect (herd) protection. Prior distributions for key transmission parameters were repeatedly sampled and simulations that fitted the available information on influenza in Finland were recorded. The resulting posterior parameter distributions were used in a probabilistic sensitivity analysis in which economic parameters were sampled, simultaneously encompassing uncertainty in the transmission and economic parameters. The cost effectiveness of a range of trivalent and quadrivalent vaccine policies over a 20-year time horizon was assessed from both a societal and payer perspective in 2014 Euros.

RESULTS

The simulated temporal incidence pattern of symptomatic infections corresponded well with case surveillance data. A switch from the current TIV to Q-LAIV in children (2 to <18 years) and to QIV in other ages was estimated to annually avert approximately 76,100 symptomatic infections (95 % range 36,700-146,700), 11,500 primary care consultations (6100-20,000), 540 hospitalisations (240-1180), and 72 deaths (32-160), and was cost-saving relative to TIV (€374 million averted [€161-€752], in 2014 Euros, discounted at 3 %). This scenario had the highest probability of being the most cost-effective scenario considered.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis demonstrates that quadrivalent vaccination is expected to be highly cost effective, reducing the burden of influenza-related disease.

Unremarked or Unperformed? Systematic Review on Reporting of Validation Efforts of Health Economic Decision Models in Seasonal Influenza and Early Breast Cancer

BACKGROUND

Transparent reporting of validation efforts of health economic models give stakeholders better insight into the credibility of model outcomes. In this study we reviewed recently published studies on seasonal influenza and early breast cancer in order to gain insight into the reporting of model validation efforts in the overall health economic literature.

METHODS

A literature search was performed in Pubmed and Embase to retrieve health economic modelling studies published between 2008 and 2014. Reporting on model validation was evaluated by checking for the word validation, and by using AdViSHE (Assessment of the Validation Status of Health Economic decision models), a tool containing a structured list of relevant items for validation. Additionally, we contacted corresponding authors to ask whether more validation efforts were performed other than those reported in the manuscripts.

RESULTS

A total of 53 studies on seasonal influenza and 41 studies on early breast cancer were included in our review. The word validation was used in 16 studies (30 %) on seasonal influenza and 23 studies (56 %) on early breast cancer; however, in a minority of studies, this referred to a model validation technique. Fifty-seven percent of seasonal influenza studies and 71 % of early breast cancer studies reported one or more validation techniques. Cross-validation of study outcomes was found most often. A limited number of studies reported on model validation efforts, although good examples were identified. Author comments indicated that more validation techniques were performed than those reported in the manuscripts.

CONCLUSIONS

Although validation is deemed important by many researchers, this is not reflected in the reporting habits of health economic modelling studies. Systematic reporting of validation efforts would be desirable to further enhance decision makers' confidence in health economic models and their outcomes.

Impact of quadrivalent influenza vaccine on public health and influenza-related costs in Australia

BACKGROUND

Annual trivalent influenza vaccines (TIV) containing three influenza strains (A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and one B) have been recommended for the prevention of influenza. However, worldwide co-circulation of two distinct B lineages (Victoria and Yamagata) and difficulties in predicting which lineage will predominate each season have led to the development of quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIV), which include both B lineages. Our analysis evaluates the public health benefit and associated influenza-related costs avoided which would have been obtained by using QIV rather than TIV in Australia over the period 2002-2012.

METHODS

A static model stratified by age group was used, focusing on people at increased risk of influenza as defined by the Australian vaccination recommendations. B-lineage cross-protection was accounted for. We calculated the potential impact of QIV compared with TIV over the seasons 2002-2012 (2009 pandemic year excluded) using Australian data on influenza circulation, vaccine coverage, hospitalisation and mortality rates as well as unit costs, and international data on vaccine effectiveness, influenza attack rate, GP consultation rate and working days lost. Third-party payer and societal influenza-related costs were estimated in 2014 Australian dollars. Sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Using QIV instead of TIV over the period 2002-2012 would have prevented an estimated 68,271 additional influenza cases, 47,537 GP consultations, 3,522 hospitalisations and 683 deaths in the population at risk of influenza. These results translate into influenza-related societal costs avoided of $46.5 million. The estimated impact of QIV was higher for young children and the elderly. The overall impact of QIV depended mainly on vaccine effectiveness and the influenza attack rate attributable to the mismatched B lineage.

CONCLUSION

The broader protection offered by QIV would have reduced the number of influenza infections and its related complications, leading to substantial influenza-related costs avoided.

Evaluating the case for trivalent or quadrivalent influenza vaccines

Influenza viruses circulate widely throughout the world and it is estimated that they affect between 5 and 15% of the population annually. Since 1977, four viruses co-circulate - two A Viruses (H1N1 and H3N2) and two B viruses (B Yamagata and B Victoria). Type A viruses generally cause up to two thirds of annual infections, although single country studies have shown that B infections may be the predominant virus in the one year in four. Influenza vaccines have traditionally included the hamagglutinins and neuraminidases from the two circulating A viruses and either B Yamagata or B Victoria - however, selecting the B strain for inclusion in these trivalent vaccines has variable success. The alternative approach is to include both B strains in a quadrivalent vaccine. Immunological studies of such vaccines show non-inferiority with a trivalent vaccine comparator, and significant superiority to the additional B strain. Quadrivalent vaccines are more expensive than trivalent preparations but theoretical evidence would suggest they are likely to be more effective and therefore play a much greater role in national immunisation programmes in the future.

Immunogenicity and safety of inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine in adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND

A quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) includes two A strains (A/H1N1, A/H3N2) and two B lineages (B/Victoria, B/Yamagata). The presence of both B lineages eliminate potential B lineage mismatch of trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) with the circulating strain.

METHODS

Electronic database searches of Medline, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CCRCT), Scopus and Web of Science were conducted for articles published until June 30, 2015 inclusive. Articles were limited to randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in adults using inactivated intramuscular vaccine and published in English language only. Summary estimates of immunogenicity (by seroprotection and seroconversion rates) and adverse events outcomes were compared between QIV and TIV, using a risk ratio (RR). Studies were pooled using inverse variance weights with a random effect model and the I(2) statistic was used to estimate heterogeneity.

RESULTS

A total of five RCTs were included in the meta-analysis. For immunogenicity outcomes, QIV had similar efficacy for the three common strains; A/H1N1, A/H3N2 and the B lineage included in the TIV. QIV also showed superior efficacy for the B lineage not included in the TIV; pooled seroprotection RR of 1.14 (95%CI: 1.03-1.25, p=0.008) and seroconversion RR of 1.78 (95%CI: 1.24-2.55, p=0.002) for B/Victoria, and pooled seroprotection RR of 1.12 (95%CI: 1.02-1.22, p=0.01) and seroconversion RR of 2.11 (95%CI: 1.51-2.95, p<0.001) for B/Yamagata, respectively. No significant differences were found between QIV and TIV for aggregated local and systemic adverse events within 7days post-vaccination. There were no vaccine-related serious adverse events reported for either QIV or TIV. Compared to TIV, injection-site pain was more common for QIV, with a pooled RR of 1.18 (95%CI: 1.03-1.35, p=0.02).

CONCLUSION

In adults, inactivated QIV was as immunogenic as seasonal TIV, with equivalent efficacy against the shared three strains included in TIV, and a superior immunogenicity against the non-TIV B lineage.

Immunogenicity and Safety of an Inactivated Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine in US Children 6-35 Months of Age During 2013-2014: Results From A Phase II Randomized Trial

BACKGROUND

Viruses from 2 influenza B lineages co-circulate, leading to suboptimal protection with trivalent influenza vaccines (TIV). Quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIV) containing both lineages offer broader protection.

METHODS

We compared inactivated seasonal QIV versus TIV (15 and 7.5 μg hemagglutinin [HA] for each influenza strain, respectively) in a phase II randomized (1 : 1), observer-blind trial in US children 6-35 months of age (identifier NCT01974895). The primary objective was to evaluate immune responses induced by QIV for the 4 vaccine strains 28 days after completion of vaccination. A secondary objective was to demonstrate superiority of QIV versus TIV for the B/Victoria strain contained in QIV but not TIV. Immunogenicity was evaluated in the per-protocol cohort (N = 280), and safety was evaluated in the intent-to-treat cohort (N = 314).

RESULTS

Seroconversion rates (SCRs) for QIV were 80.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 73.0%-86.6%), 72.0% (95% CI, 63.9%-79.2%), 86.0% (95% CI, 79.2%-91.2%), and 66.4% (95% CI, 58.1%-74.1%) for A/H1N1, A/H3N2, B/Yamagata, and B/Victoria, respectively. Quadrivalent influenza vaccines demonstrated immunogenic superiority over TIV for B/Victoria with a geometric mean titer ratio of 4.73 (95% CI, 3.73%-5.99%) and SCR difference of 54.02% (95% CI, 43.88%-62.87%). Safety was similar between the vaccine groups despite the QIV's higher antigen content. No serious adverse events were reported related to vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

Quadrivalent influenza vaccine (15 µg HA/strain) was immunogenic with an acceptable safety profile. The next phase of its development in children 6-35 months of age is a phase III trial in countries where it is not yet licensed. In countries where it is already licensed, a switch from TIV to QIV would provide broader protection in this vulnerable group.

Retrospective public health impact of a quadrivalent influenza vaccine in the United States

INTRODUCTION

Vaccination is an effective preventive strategy against influenza. However, current trivalent influenza vaccines (TIVs) contain only one of the two influenza B lineages that circulate each year. Vaccine mismatches are frequent because predicting which one will predominate is difficult. Recently licensed quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVs) containing the two B lineages should address this issue. Our study estimates their impact by assessing what would have been the US public health benefit of routinely vaccinating with QIV in 2000-2013.

METHODS

We developed a dynamic compartmental model that accounts for interactions between influenza B lineages (natural or vaccine-induced) and simulates the multiyear influenza dynamics for 2000-2013. Age-structured population dynamics, vaccine efficacy (VE) per strain, and weekly ramp-up of vaccination coverage are modeled. Sensitivity analyses were performed on VE, duration of immunity, and levels of vaccine-induced cross-protection between B lineages.

RESULTS

Assuming a cross-protection of 70% of the VE of the matched vaccine, the model predicts 16% more B lineage cases prevented by QIV. Elderly (≥65 years) and young seniors (50-64 years) benefit most from QIV, with 21% and 18% reductions in B lineage cases. Reducing cross-protection to 50%, 30%, and 0% of the VE of the matched vaccine improves the relative benefit of QIV to 25%, 30%, and 34% less B lineage cases.

CONCLUSION

Using a dynamic retrospective framework with real-life vaccine mismatch, our analysis shows that QIV routine vaccination in the United States has the potential to substantially reduce the number of influenza infections, even with relatively high estimates of TIV-induced cross-protection.

Immunogenicity and safety of an inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine in healthy adults: a phase II, open-label, uncontrolled trial in Japan

Two antigenically distinct B strain lineages of influenza virus have co-circulated since the mid-1980s; however, inactivated trivalent influenza vaccines contain only one B lineage. The mismatch between the circulating and vaccine lineages has been a worldwide issue. In this study, an inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) candidate containing two B lineages was manufactured and its immunogenicity and safety evaluated in an open-label, uncontrolled trial. In this phase II trial, 50 subjects aged 20-64 years received two doses of QIV s.c. 1 to 4 weeks apart. Sera were collected pre- and post-vaccination and safety assessed from the first vaccination to 21 ± 7 days after the second vaccination. After the first vaccination, hemagglutination inhibition titers against each strain increased markedly; the seroconversion rate, geometric mean titer ratio and seroprotection rate being 94.0%, 24.93, and 100.0%, respectively, for the A/H1N1pdm09 strain; 94.0%, 12.47, and 98.0%, respectively, for the A/H3N2 strain; 54.0%, 4.99, and 66.0%, respectively, for B/Yamagata strain, and 72.0%, 6.23 and 80.0%, respectively, for the B/Victoria strain, thus fulfilling the criteria of the European Medical Agency's Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use. Also, the QIV induced sufficient single radial hemolysis and neutralizing antibodies against all four vaccine strains. No noteworthy adverse events were noted. The results of this trial demonstrate that QIV is well tolerated and immunogenic for each strain, suggesting that QIV potentially improves protection against influenza B by resolving the issue of B lineage mismatch.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of quadrivalent influenza vaccine in Spain

Influenza has a major impact on healthcare systems and society, but can be prevented using vaccination. The World Health Organization (WHO) currently recommends that influenza vaccines should include at least two virus A and one virus B lineage (trivalent vaccine; TIV). A new quadrivalent vaccine (QIV), which includes an additional B virus strain, received regulatory approval and is now recommended by several countries. The present study estimates the cost-effectiveness of replacing TIVs with QIV for risk groups and elderly population in Spain. A static, lifetime, multi-cohort Markov model with a one-year cycle time was adapted to assess the costs and health outcomes associated with a switch from TIV to QIV. The model followed a cohort vaccinated each year according to health authority recommendations, for the duration of their lives. National epidemiological data allowed the determination of whether the B strain included in TIVs matched the circulating one. Societal perspective was considered, costs and outcomes were discounted at 3% and one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Compared to TIVs, QIV reduced more influenza cases and influenza-related complications and deaths during periods of B-mismatch strains in the TIV. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was 8,748€/quality-adjusted life year (QALY). One-way sensitivity analysis showed mismatch with the B lineage included in the TIV was the main driver for ICER. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows ICER below 30,000€/QALY in 96% of simulations. Replacing TIVs with QIV in Spain could improve influenza prevention by avoiding B virus mismatch and provide a cost-effective healthcare intervention.

Public health and economic impact of seasonal influenza vaccination with quadrivalent influenza vaccines compared to trivalent influenza vaccines in Europe

Influenza B strains represent on average 23% of all circulating strains in Europe and when there is a vaccine mismatch on B strains, additional influenza-related hospitalizations and deaths as well as substantial additional costs are observed. The objective was to estimate the public health and economic impact of seasonal influenza vaccination with quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIV) compared to trivalent influenza vaccines (TIV) in Europe (EU).

Based on data from 5 EU countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK) during 10 influenza seasons from 2002 to 2013, epidemiological and associated economic outcomes were estimated for each season for the actual scenario where the TIV was used, and for a hypothetical scenario where QIV could have been used instead.

By using QIV, this study estimated that for the 5 EU countries, an additional 1.03 million (327.9/100,000 inhabitants) influenza cases, 453,000 (143.9/100,000) general practitioners consultations, 672,000 (213.1/100,000) workdays lost, 24,000 (7.7/100,000) hospitalizations and 10,000 (3.1/100,000) deaths could have been avoided compared to the use of TIV over the 10-seasons-period. This study estimates that QIV can be of economic value since from a societal perspective 15 million Euros would have been saved on general practitioners consultations (14 million Euros from third-party payer perspective), 77 million on hospitalizations (74 million Euros from third-party payer perspective) and 150 million Euros on workdays lost, across the 5 EU countries.

In conclusion, the present study estimates that, compared to TIV, QIV may result in a substantial decrease in epidemiological burden and in influenza-related costs.

Assessment of potential public health impact of a quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine in Thailand

BACKGROUND

Each year, an influenza B strain representing only one influenza B lineage is included in the trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV3); a mismatch between the selected lineage and circulating viruses can result in suboptimal vaccine effectiveness. We modeled the added potential public health impact of a quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV4) that includes strains from both influenza B lineages compared to IIV3 on influenza-associated morbidity and mortality in Thailand.

METHODS

Using data on the incidence of influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths, vaccine effectiveness, and vaccine coverage from the 2007-2012 influenza seasons in Thailand, we estimated rates of influenza-associated outcomes that might be averted using IIV4 instead of IIV3. We then applied these rates to national population estimates to calculate averted illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths for each season. We assumed that the influenza B lineage included in IIV3 would provide a relative vaccine effectiveness of 75% against the other B lineage.

RESULTS

Compared to use of IIV3, use of IIV4 might have led to an additional reduction ranging from 0·4 to 14·3 influenza-associated illnesses per 100 000 population/year, <0·1 to 0·5 hospitalizations per 100 000/year, and <0·1 to 0·4 deaths per 1000/year. Based on extrapolation to national population estimates, replacement of IIV3 with IIV4 might have averted an additional 267-9784 influenza-associated illnesses, 9-320 hospitalizations, and 0-3 deaths.

CONCLUSION

Compared to use of IIV3, IIV4 has the potential to further reduce the burden of influenza-associated morbidity and mortality in Thailand.

Oral Modeling of an Adenovirus-Based Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine in Ferrets and Mice

Introduction

Oral vaccines delivered as tablets offer a number of advantages over traditional parenteral-based vaccines including the ease of delivery, lack of needles, no need for trained medical personnel, and the ability to formulate into temperature-stable tablets. We have been evaluating an oral vaccine platform based on recombinant adenoviral vectors for the purpose of creating a prophylactic vaccine to prevent influenza, and have demonstrated vaccine efficacy in animal models and substantial immunogenicity in humans. These studies have evaluated monovalent vaccines to date. To protect against the major circulating A and B influenza strains, a multivalent influenza vaccine will be required.

Methods

In this study, the immunogenicity of orally delivered monovalent, bivalent, trivalent, and quadrivalent vaccines was tested in ferrets and mice. The various vaccine combinations were tested by blending monovalent recombinant adenovirus vaccines, each expressing hemagglutinin from a single strain. Human tablet delivery was modeled in animals by oral gavage in mice and by endoscopic delivery in ferrets.

Results

We demonstrated minimal interference between the various vaccine vectors when used in combination and that the oral quadrivalent vaccine compared favorably to an approved trivalent inactivated vaccine.

Conclusion

The quadrivalent vaccine presented here produced immune responses that we predict should be capable of providing protection against multiple influenza strains, and the platform should have applications to other multivalent vaccines.

Funding

Vaxart, Inc.

Influenza B vaccine lineage selection--an optimized trivalent vaccine

Epidemics of seasonal influenza viruses cause considerable morbidity and mortality each year. Various types and subtypes of influenza circulate in humans and evolve continuously such that individuals at risk of serious complications need to be vaccinated annually to keep protection up to date with circulating viruses. The influenza vaccine in most parts of the world is a trivalent vaccine, including an antigenically representative virus of recently circulating influenza A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and influenza B viruses. However, since the 1970s influenza B has split into two antigenically distinct lineages, only one of which is represented in the annual trivalent vaccine at any time. We describe a lineage selection strategy that optimizes protection against influenza B using the standard trivalent vaccine as a potentially cost effective alternative to quadrivalent vaccines.

Trivalent and quadrivalent influenza vaccination effectiveness in Australia and South Africa: results from a modelling study

BACKGROUND

A modelling study was conducted to determine the effectiveness of trivalent (TIV) and quadrivalent (QIV) vaccination in South Africa and Australia.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to determine the potential benefits of alternative vaccination strategies which may depend on community-specific demographic and health characteristics.

METHODS

Two influenza A and two influenza B strains were simulated using individual-based simulation models representing specific communities in South Africa and Australia over 11 years. Scenarios using TIV or QIV, with alternative prioritisation strategies and vaccine coverage levels, were evaluated using a country-specific health outcomes process.

RESULTS

In South Africa, approximately 18% fewer deaths and hospitalisations would be expected to result from the use of QIV compared to TIV over the 11 modelled years (P = 0·031). In Australia, only 2% (P = 0·30) fewer deaths and hospitalisations would result. Vaccinating 2%, 5%, 15% or 20% of the population with TIV using a strategy of prioritising vulnerable age groups, including HIV-positive individuals, resulted in reductions in hospitalisations and mortality of at least 7%, 18%, 57% and 66%, respectively, in both communities.

CONCLUSIONS

The degree to which QIV can reduce health burden compared to TIV is strongly dependent on the number of years in which the influenza B lineage in the TIV matches the circulating B lineages. Assuming a moderate level of B cross-strain protection, TIV may be as effective as QIV. The choice of vaccination prioritisation has a greater impact than the QIV/TIV choice, with strategies targeting those most responsible for transmission being most effective.

Quadrivalent influenza vaccine: a new opportunity to reduce the influenza burden

Influenza illness is caused by influenza A and influenza B strains. Although influenza A viruses are perceived to carry greater risk because they account for the majority of influenza cases in most seasons and have been responsible for influenza pandemics, influenza B viruses also impose a substantial public health burden, particularly among children and at-risk subjects. Furthermore, since the 2001-2002 influenza season, both influenza B lineages, B/Victoria-like viruses and B/Yamagata-like viruses have co-circulated in Europe. The conventional trivalent influenza vaccines have shown a limited ability to induce effective protection when major or minor mismatches between the influenza B vaccine component and circulating strains occur. For this reason, the inclusion of a second B strain in influenza vaccines may help to overcome the well-known difficulties of predicting the circulating B lineage and choosing the influenza B vaccine component. Two quadrivalent influenza vaccines, a live-attenuated quadrivalent influenza vaccine (Q/LAIV) and a split inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine (I/QIV), were first licensed in the US in 2012. Since their introduction, models simulating the inclusion of QIV in influenza immunization programs have demonstrated the substantial health benefits, in terms of reducing the number of influenza cases, their complications and mortality. In the near future, evaluations from simulation models should be confirmed by effectiveness studies in the field, and more costeffectiveness analyses should be conducted in order to verify the expected benefits.

Cost-effectiveness evaluation of quadrivalent influenza vaccines for seasonal influenza prevention: a dynamic modeling study of Canada and the United Kingdom

Background

The adoption of quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) to replace trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) in immunization programs is growing worldwide, thus helping to address the problem of influenza B lineage mismatch. However, the price per dose of QIV is higher than that of TIV. In such circumstances, cost-effectiveness analyses provide important and relevant information to inform national health recommendations and implementation decisions. This analysis assessed potential vaccine impacts and cost-effectiveness of a country-wide switch from TIV to QIV, in Canada and the UK, from a third-party payer perspective.

Methods

An age-stratified, dynamic four-strain transmission model which incorporates strain interaction, transmission-rate seasonality and age-specific mixing in the population was used. Model input data were obtained from published literature and online databases. In Canada, we evaluated a switch from TIV to QIV in the entire population. For the UK, we considered two strategies: Children aged 2–17 years who receive the live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) switch to the quadrivalent formulation (QLAIV), while individuals aged > 18 years switch from TIV to QIV. Two different vaccination uptake scenarios in children (UK1 and UK2, which differ in the vaccine uptake level) were considered. Health and cost outcomes for both vaccination strategies, and the cost-effectiveness of switching from TIV/LAIV to QIV/QLAIV, were estimated from the payer perspective. For Canada and the UK, cost and outcomes were discounted using 5 % and 3.5 % per year, respectively.

Results

Overall, in an average influenza season, our model predicts that a nationwide switch from TIV to QIV would prevent 4.6 % influenza cases, 4.9 % general practitioner (GP) visits, 5.7 % each of emergency room (ER) visits and hospitalizations, and 6.8 % deaths in Canada. In the UK (UK1/UK2), implementing QIV would prevent 1.4 %/1.8 % of influenza cases, 1.6 %/2.0 % each of GP and ER visits, 1.5 %/1.9 % of hospitalizations and 4.3 %/4.9 % of deaths. Discounted incremental cost-utility ratios of $7,961 and £7,989/£7,234 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained are estimated for Canada and the UK (UK1/UK2), both of which are well within their respective cost-effectiveness threshold values.

Conclusions

Switching from TIV to QIV is expected to be a cost-effective strategy to further reduce the burden of influenza in both countries.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-015-1193-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Influenza B viruses: not to be discounted

In contrast to influenza A viruses, which have been investigated extensively, influenza B viruses have attracted relatively little attention. However, influenza B viruses are an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the human population and full understanding of their biological and epidemiological properties is imperative to better control this important pathogen. However, some of its characteristics are still elusive and warrant investigation. Here, we review evolution, epidemiology, pathogenesis and immunity and identify gaps in our knowledge of influenza B viruses. The divergence of two antigenically distinct influenza B viruses is highlighted. The co-circulation of viruses of these two lineages necessitated the development of quadrivalent influenza vaccines, which is discussed in addition to possibilities to develop universal vaccination strategies.

Ten influenza seasons in France: distribution and timing of influenza A and B circulation, 2003-2013

BACKGROUND

Describing the circulation of influenza viruses and the characteristics of seasonal epidemics remains an essential tool to optimize the strategies of influenza prevention and control. Special attention has been recently paid to influenza B in the context of the availability of a quadrivalent vaccine, containing two influenza B strains.

METHODS

We used data from a practitioners-based influenza surveillance network to describe the circulation of influenza viruses in France from 2003-2004 to 2012-2013. Nasopharyngeal swabs taken from acute respiratory infection (ARI) patients between October and April were tested for influenza. We reported the number of influenza cases by virus type (A, B), subtype (A(H1), A(H3)) and B lineage (Yamagata, Victoria) in each season and determined the frequency of influenza B vaccine mismatch. We estimated weekly incidence of influenza by extrapolating reported influenza cases to the French population. We compared the temporal characteristics of the epidemics caused by influenza A(H1), A(H3) and B.

RESULTS

Overall, 49,919 ARI patients were tested, of which 16,287 (32.6 %) were positive for influenza. Type B virus caused 23.7 % of all influenza cases. Virus subtypes A(H1) and A(H3) caused 51.6 % and 48.4 % of influenza A cases, respectively. Viruses of the B-Yamagata and B-Victoria lineage caused 62.8 % and 37.2 % of influenza B cases, respectively. There was an influenza B vaccine mismatch in three of the five seasons where influenza B caused 10 % or more of all influenza cases. Influenza A(H3) had the highest average value of estimated weekly incidence during the study period. Influenza B peaked an average 3.8 weeks later than influenza A when both virus types were circulating. No differences in the duration of influenza A and B epidemics were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza A(H3) was the most prevalent influenza type during the study period. Influenza B caused around one fourth of all influenza cases and tended to circulate later than influenza A. The frequency of influenza B vaccine mismatches was substantial. Timely data on the circulation of influenza viruses collected within influenza surveillance systems are essential to optimize influenza prevention and control strategies.