Extreme mortality and reproductive failure of common murres resulting from the northeast Pacific marine heatwave of 2014-2016

Idiosyncratic patterns of chlorophyll-a anomalies in response to marine heatwaves in the Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean Sea) over the last two decades

In the open ocean, marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been associated to a decline of Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration in tropical and temperate areas while, at higher latitudes, they seem to enhance phytoplankton productivity. Currently, uncertainties remain on the outcomes of MHWs on primary production in coastal and heterogenous marine regions. We analyzed long-term modeled satellite-derived data on sea surface temperature and Chl-a concentration in the Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean Sea), a semi-enclosed basin where coastal and open-sea environmental conditions co-occur, to explore Chl-a responses to MHWs. We found that both low and high Chl-a anomalies were strictly dependent on MHWs, although following direct or inverse relationships in different areas, as a consequence of regional-scale heterogeneities in nutrient availability, riverine inputs, circulation and geomorphology. Along the west coast and shallow areas of the North and Central Adriatic, high MHWs frequency, duration and intensity corresponded to high frequency of Chl-a peaks and/or increased intensity and duration of low Chl-a anomalies, suggesting pronounced fluctuations with intense phytoplankton blooms alternating to extremely low production events. Conversely, in offshore and deeper areas, especially in the South Adriatic, MHWs frequency, duration and intensity inversely correlated with Chl-a anomalies, indicating a possible reduction of phytoplankton biomass and a decline of organic matter flow towards the sea floor. Prolonged MHWs may therefore drive shifts in primary production with possible ecosystem-wide effects in both coastal and pelagic areas. These multifaceted MHW-Chl-a interactions observed in the Adriatic Sea emphasize the need for context-specific assessments in environmentally complex marine regions to develop management strategies addressing ecological and socioeconomic issues arising from the unrelenting increase of temperature anomalies.

Synthesis of transcriptomic studies reveals a core response to heat stress in abalone (genus Haliotis)

BACKGROUND

As climate change causes marine heat waves to become more intense and frequent, marine species increasingly suffer from heat stress. This stress can result in reduced growth, disrupted breeding cycles, vulnerability to diseases and pathogens, and increased mortality rates. Abalone (genus Haliotis) are an ecologically significant group of marine gastropods and are among the most highly valued seafood products. However, heat stress events have had devastating impacts on both farmed and wild populations. Members of this genus are among the most susceptible marine species to climate change impacts, with over 40% of all abalone species listed as threatened with extinction. This has motivated researchers to explore the genetics linked to heat stress in abalone. A substantial portion of publicly available studies has employed transcriptomic approaches to investigate abalone genetic response to heat stress. However, to date, no meta-analysis has been conducted to determine the common response to heat stress (i.e. the core response) across the genus. This study uses a standardized bioinformatic pipeline to reanalyze and compare publicly available RNA-seq datasets from different heat stress studies on abalone.

RESULTS

Nine publicly available RNA-seq datasets from nine different heat-stress studies on abalone from seven different abalone species and three hybrids were included in the meta-analysis. We identified a core set of 74 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in response to heat stress in at least seven out of nine studies. This core set of DEGs mainly included genes associated with alternative splicing, heat shock proteins (HSPs), Ubiquitin-Proteasome System (UPS), and other protein folding and protein processing pathways.

CONCLUSIONS

The detection of a consistent set of genes that respond to heat stress across various studies, despite differences in experimental design (e.g. stress intensity, species studied-geographical distribution, preferred temperature range, etc.), strengthens our proposal that these genes are key elements of the heat stress response in abalone. The identification of the core response to heat stress in abalone lays an important foundation for future research. Ultimately, this study will aid conservation efforts and aquaculture through the identification of resilient populations, genetic-based breeding programs, possible manipulations such as early exposure to stress, gene editing and the use of immunostimulants to enhance thermal tolerance.

Spatial Variation in Body Condition of a Coastal Sentinel, the Little Penguin, Reflects Marine and Terrestrial Factors

Seabirds are widely considered sentinels of their coastal ecosystems. However, biological associations between specific marine and terrestrial factors and seabird health are less well understood. Here, we investigate the associations between habitat-scale processes and variability in body condition of breeding little penguins Eudyptula minor, across 15 populations in Lutruwita/Tasmania, Australia. Sites represent a range of nesting habitats, oceanographic conditions and localised anthropogenic disturbance, providing an unparalleled opportunity to assess the impact of multiple processes shaping health. We show significant regional differences in body condition, with eastern populations consistently in better body condition than northern. Using Bayesian multilevel models, we found marine productivity to have the strongest relationship (coef. 0.52, 95% CI [0.13, 0.91]). Body condition was also negatively related to habitat loss, expressed as total road length around the colony, and ectoparasite load, with parasitism having a greater negative association in females. By assessing health across a spatially robust number of populations, rarely performed in seabirds, we reveal marine, terrestrial and sex relationships, indicating potentially important processes shaping health that would otherwise be difficult to discern.

Stunned by a Heatwave: Experimental Heatwaves Alter Juvenile Responsiveness to the Threat of Predation

Heatwaves, increasingly prevalent in our rapidly changing climate, significantly impact animals with far-reaching ecological and evolutionary consequences. One of the first responses in animals to stress, including heat stress, is behavioural change, and this can directly influence fitness and survival. Changes in anti-predator behaviour are particularly critical, as they may compromise a prey's ability to evade predators, thus increasing predation risk and jeopardising survival. In the context of climate change, assessing anti-predator reactions under ecologically relevant heat stress is thus crucial, especially during the vulnerable life stage of development. This study investigated the effects of a heatwave on anti-predator responses in juvenile guppies (Poecilia reticulata). One-month-old guppies were subjected to a 5-day experimental heatwave (32°C) or a control temperature (26°C). After the treatment, all individuals were tested at a common temperature (26°C) for anti-predator behavioural responses and swimming performance, the latter serving as a proxy for physical condition. While heatwave exposure did not affect swimming performance, it significantly altered anti-predator responses. Heatwave-exposed juveniles exhibited a reduced freezing response and faster resumption of normal activity compared to control fish. Our findings demonstrate that heatwaves can modify prey's anti-predator behaviours during critical developmental stages. This suggests that heatwaves may increase predation risk, potentially impacting survival rates and reshaping predator-prey interactions in the face of ongoing climate change.

Evaluating ecosystem caps on fishery yield in the context of climate stress and predation

Ecosystem-based fisheries management strives to account for species interactions and ecosystem processes in natural resource management and conservation. In this context, ecosystem-wide caps on total fishery catches have been proposed as one tool to manage multispecies fisheries with an ecosystem approach. However, determining effective ecosystem caps is complicated because fish stock production is influenced by environmental conditions, species interactions, and fishing. Consequently, the implementation of ecosystem caps in fisheries management frameworks remains uncommon. We investigated whether ecosystem caps should account for climate variability and for predator-prey dynamics to achieve management objectives in complex marine ecosystems. We considered the example of the Gulf of Alaska (United States), a North Pacific large marine ecosystem where annual groundfish catches are managed using an "optimum yield" ecosystem cap of 800,000 t. We simulated multispecies yield of the 12 most abundant and commercially valuable groundfish stocks under selected climate and fishing scenarios using an end-to-end marine ecosystem model (Atlantis), which accounts for predator-prey and ecosystem dynamics. We found that total groundfish yield was never projected to exceed the 800,000 mt optimum yield cap across scenarios and fishing mortalities. Projected climate change led to decreased groundfish yield, and predation from the underexploited groundfish predator arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias) led to foregone catches. Groundfish removals had negative indirect effects on groundfish predators, despite total yield never exceeding the optimum yield cap, highlighting that an ineffective cap may not protect non-target species. These results suggest that the optimum yield cap currently used in the Gulf of Alaska may be too high to constrain groundfish catches under future climate change and low exploitation rates of predators. We propose that ecosystem caps should be reviewed when environmental conditions, stock productivity, or species interactions change.

Landscape transcriptomic analysis detects thermal stress responses and potential adaptive variation in wild brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) during successive heatwaves

Extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, are becoming more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. Critically, such extreme weather events can be more important drivers of extirpation and selection than changes in annual or seasonal averages and they pose a particularly large threat to poikilothermic organisms. In this study, we evaluated the transcriptomic response of a coldwater adapted fish species, the eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), to two successive heatwaves during July and August 2022. We sampled brook trout at eight time points from four streams (N = 116 fish), sequenced mRNA from gill samples using TagSeq, and quantified expression levels of 32,670 unique transcripts. Multivariate analyses found that overall expression patterns in response to water temperature change were similar among streams. These analyses further detected groups of genes involved in immune response and oxygen carrier activity that were upregulated and downregulated respectively at higher water temperatures. We also detected 43 genes that were differentially expressed at different time points and followed the same expression pattern during the two heatwaves. Of these genes, 42 covaried with water temperature and most (27, 62.8 %) exhibited responses that varied by stream. Some of the differentially expressed genes, including heat shock proteins and cold-inducible RNA binding proteins, have been widely linked to temperature responses in experimental studies, whereas other genes we identified have functions that have not been well-studied in relationship to temperature or have unknown functions. This study shows the utility of landscape transcriptomic approaches to identify important biological processes governing wild organismal responses to short-term stressors. The results of this study can guide future investigations to identify phenotypic and genetic diversity that contribute to adaptive responses to heatwaves and improve predictions of how populations will respond to future climate change.

Investigation into Paralytic Shellfish Toxins and Microcystins in Seabirds from Portugal

Microalgae form the basis of marine food webs, essential in sustaining top predators including seabirds. However, certain species of microalgae synthesize biotoxins, which can accumulate in shellfish and fish and may cause harm to marine animals feeding on them. Toxins produced by dinoflagellates have been previously observed to be poisonous to seabirds. Also, in freshwater and brackish habitats, cyanobacteria have caused bird mortality events. In this work, we analyze the prevalence of six families of biotoxins (paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs), microcystins (MCs), anatoxins, amnesic shellfish toxins (ASTs), cylindrospermopsin, and tetrodotoxins (TTXs)) in 340 samples from 193 wild birds admitted to a wildlife rehabilitation centre in south Portugal. Furthermore, we consider the clinical picture and signs of 17 birds that presented quantifiable levels of biotoxins in their tissues. The relationship between toxin burdens and the symptomatology observed, as well as possible biotoxin sources, are discussed. Based on previously published research data, we conclude that, in these birds, the biotoxins are unlikely to be the only cause of death but might contribute to some extent to a reduction in birds' fitness.

Marine Heatwaves and Iceberg Melting in Polar Areas Intensify Phytoplankton Blooms

Climate change has led to increases in the intensity and frequency of marine heatwaves (MHWs). However, the impact of MHWs on phytoplankton at the global scale remains unclear. The metaheuristic superlearner proposed in this research indicates that the occurrence of MHWs weakens the Fe limitation of phytoplankton growth, leading to intensified phytoplankton blooms. The shock transmission effect analysis further reveals the interactions among sea surface temperature (SST), iceberg melting, Fe, ammonium (NH 4 + $$ {\mathrm{NH}}_4^{+} $$ ) and nitrate (NO 3 - $$ {\mathrm{NO}}_3^{-} $$ ); namely, the occurrence of MHWs in polar regions has led to iceberg melting, triggering a derivative shock of iceberg melting. Compared with a single MHWs event, the dual shock disrupted the effects of Fe,NH 4 + $$ {\mathrm{NH}}_4^{+} $$ andNO 3 - $$ {\mathrm{NO}}_3^{-} $$ on limiting the growth of phytoplankton, resulting in a 54.90% increase in the growth rate of phytoplankton and leading to the massive reproduction of phytoplankton in polar regions. In addition, compared with that in the low-emission scenario (SSP126), the coverage area of globally fragile marine regions with respect to intensified phytoplankton blooms will increase by 5.84% under the medium-emission scenario (SSP245) and by 9.29% under the high-emission scenario (SSP585). Specifically, the Global South and developing Pacific island countries are fragile regions that need scientific (marine protected area guidance) and financial (such as a foundation for marine protection) assistance to resist the increasing intensity and expansion of phytoplankton blooms under climate change.

Experimental trials provide insight to climate impacts on condition and over-winter survival in Pacific sand lance, Ammodytes personatus

Environmental conditions influence the condition and survival of organisms and may influence levels of activity, relative condition, and mortality rates. Temperature has a direct effect on energetic demands associated with activity and rest and temperature-mediated physiological rates. Most organisms operate within narrow tolerance thresholds for temperature. Exposure to conditions outside these thresholds may have deleterious effects on metabolic demands, energy retention, and physiological rates. Experimental trials are one tool that may provide insight to species-specific tolerance to elevated temperatures. We ran experimental trials to examine the effects of elevated temperature on Pacific sand lance (Ammodytes personatus), an important forage fish in the North Pacific. Fish were held in tank trials at ambient (11 °C) and elevated (18 °C) temperatures in tanks with and without sediment. Analyses compared the effect of increased sea temperature on activity level, condition, and mortality. Experimental trials also examined the influence of the presence/absence of sediment on behavior. To compare experimental results with conditions experienced in situ, we evaluated a comparison dataset from the Salish Sea that spanned the 2014-2016 marine heat wave in the North Pacific. Analysis of in situ data showed a reduction in condition of Pacific sand lance populations in the Salish Sea during the 2014-2016 period of anomalous warming, but also recovery. Experimental trials demonstrated the importance of both temperature and sediment. Elevated temperatures resulted in reduced activity, reduced condition, and increased mortality. Absence of sediment had a negative effect on fish condition and survival and interfered with behavior associated with estivation and winter dormancy. Results provide insight into energetics and mortality that might be associated with future marine heat waves and have application to parameterizing ecosystem models.

Audible changes in marine trophic ecology: Baleen whale song tracks foraging conditions in the eastern North Pacific

Among tremendous biodiversity within the California Current Ecosystem (CCE) are gigantic mysticetes (baleen whales) that produce structured sequences of sound described as song. From six years of passive acoustic monitoring within the central CCE we measured seasonal and interannual variations in the occurrence of blue (Balaenoptera musculus), fin (Balaenoptera physalus), and humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae) whale song. Song detection during 11 months of the year defines its prevalence in this foraging habitat and its potential use in behavioral ecology research. Large interannual changes in song occurrence within and between species motivates examination of causality. Humpback whales uniquely exhibited continuous interannual increases, rising from 34% to 76% of days over six years, and we examine multiple hypotheses to explain this exceptional trend. Potential influences of physical factors on detectability - including masking and acoustic propagation - were not supported by analysis of wind data or modeling of acoustic transmission loss. Potential influences of changes in local population abundance, site fidelity, or migration timing were supported for two of the interannual increases in song detection, based on extensive local photo ID data (17,356 IDs of 2,407 individuals). Potential influences of changes in foraging ecology and efficiency were supported across all years by analyses of the abundance and composition of forage species. Following detrimental food web impacts of a major marine heatwave that peaked during the first year of the study, foraging conditions consistently improved for humpback whales in the context of their exceptional prey-switching capacity. Stable isotope data from humpback and blue whale biopsy samples are consistent with observed interannual variations in the regional abundance and composition of forage species. This study thus indicates that major interannual changes in detection of baleen whale song may reflect underlying variations in forage species availability driven by energetic variations in ecosystem state.

Identifying Causative Agents of a Paretic Syndrome in Waterbirds in Southern Portugal

Paretic and paralyzing syndromes affecting wild birds are widely described in the literature, with outbreaks showing an increase in frequency and intensity worldwide during recent years. In the Iberian Peninsula, a paretic clinical picture without known etiology affecting mostly gulls has been reported during the last few decades. This paretic syndrome (PS) affects waterbirds and is characterized by a set of signs of ascendent flaccid paralysis, dyspnea, and diarrhea at different levels of severity. This study presents the first macro-analysis of some potential etiological PS agents in wild birds in southern Portugal. Other possible etiologies of PS related to nutritional deficiencies and environmental pollutants were not studied but are also discussed here. A total of 571 samples, belonging to 377 individuals with (n = 336) and without (n = 41) PS signs, have been tested for seven different toxins groups (botulinum neurotoxin (BoNT), paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs), domoic acid (DA), anatoxin-a (ATX-a), cylindrospermopsin (CYN), tetrodotoxins (TTXs), and microcystins (MCs)) and three viral infections (gull adenovirus (GA), Newcastle disease virus (NVD), and highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV)). Of all the birds tested for botulinum neurotoxin, those with PS signs were positive (100%) and those without PS signs were negative (0%), confirming an association between PS and botulism. Some samples were positive for PSTs and MCs, but the prevalence in birds with PS signs was not significantly higher (2.5% and 5.3%, respectively) than in birds without signs (5.4% and 5.4%, respectively). Two birds without PS signs were positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza virus. The presence of the rest of the toxins and viruses was negative for all the samples tested. Our results support the relevant contribution of botulinum neurotoxin in the PS outbreaks observed in several species of aquatic birds in the last decades in southern Portugal, suggesting it could be one of the main causes of mortality in waterbirds.

Energetic cost of gestation and prenatal growth in humpback whales

Improving our understanding of energy allocation in reproduction is key for accurately parameterizing bioenergetic models to assess population responses to environmental perturbations and anthropogenic disturbance. We quantified the energetic cost of gestation in humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) using historical whaling records, non-invasive unoccupied aerial system (UAS) photogrammetry and post mortem tissue samples. First, we estimated relative birth size using body length measurements of 678 mother-fetus pairs from historical whaling records and 987 mother-calf pairs measured in situ using UAS-photogrammetry. The total energetic cost of gestation includes fetal growth (FG), heat increment of gestation and placental tissue development. FG was modelled from conception to birth, with fetal volume and mass estimated using the volume-to-length relationship of perinatal calves and published humpback whale tissue composition estimates. Tissue-specific energy content was quantified using post mortem bone, muscle, viscera and blubber samples from a neonatal humpback whale. Placental tissue development was estimated using humpback whale placental tissue and published equations. Relative birth length was found to be 33.75% (95% CI: 32.10-34.61) of maternal length. FG rates and absolute birth size increased with maternal length, with exponential growth in fetal length, volume and mass resulting in minimal energetic costs over the first two quadmesters (0.01-1.08%) before increasing significantly in the final quadmester (98.92%). Gestational heat constituted the greatest energetic cost (90.42-94.95%), followed by fetal (4.58-7.76%) and placental (0.37-1.83%) tissue growth. Our findings highlight the energetic costs endured by capital breeding females preceding parturition, with the most substantial energetic costs of gestation coinciding with migration and fasting. KEY POINTS: We quantified the energetic cost of gestation using body length measurements of mother-fetus pairs from historical whaling records, length estimates of mother-calf pairs measured in situ using aerial photogrammetry and post mortem tissue samples. Fetal growth rates and birth size increased with maternal length, with fetal length, volume and mass increasing exponentially over gestation. Energetic costs over the first two quadmesters were negligible (0.01-1.08%) before increasing significantly in the final quadmester (98.92%). Though larger females incur nearly twice the energetic cost of smaller females, they are likely buffered by greater absolute energy reserves, suggesting smaller females may be less resilient to perturbations in energy balance. We demonstrate the significant energetic costs incurred by pregnant humpback whales, with most of the energetic expenditure occurring over the final 100 days of gestation. Late-pregnant females are, therefore, particularly vulnerable to disruptions in energy balance, given periods of greatest energetic stress coincide with fasting and migration.

Aggregative responses of marine predators to a pulsed resource

Pulsed resources resulting from animal migrations represent important, transient influxes of high resource availability into recipient communities. The ability of predators to respond and exploit these large increases in background resource availability, however, may be constrained when the timing and magnitude of the resource pulse vary across years. In coastal Newfoundland, Canada, we studied aggregative responses of multiple seabird predators to the annual inshore pulse of a key forage fish species, capelin (Mallotus villosus). Seabird aggregative responses to fish biomass were quantified from weekly hydroacoustic and seabird surveys during July-August within an annually persistent foraging area (10 km2) associated with a cluster of capelin spawning sites across 10 years (2009-2010, 2012, 2014-2020). Seabird predators included breeding members of the families Alcidae (Common Murres Uria aalge, Razorbills Alca torda, Atlantic Puffins Fratercula arctica) and Laridae (Great Black-backed Gulls Larus marinus, American Herring Gulls L. argentatus smithsonianus) and Northern Gannets Morus bassanus, along with non-breeding, moulting members of the Family Procellariidae (Sooty Shearwaters Ardenna griseus, Great Shearwaters A. gravis). The inshore migration of spawning capelin resulted in 5-619 times (mean ± SE, 146 ± 59 times) increase in coastal fish biomass along with a shift towards more, larger and denser fish shoals. Within years, seabird abundance did not increase with inshore fish biomass but rather peaked near the first day of spawning, suggesting that seabirds primarily respond to the seasonal resource influx rather than short-term variation in fish biomass. Across years, the magnitude of the seabird aggregative response was lower during low-magnitude resource pulse years, suggesting that predators are unable to perceive low-magnitude pulses, avoid foraging under high competitor densities, and/or shift dietary reliance away from capelin under these conditions. The seabird response magnitude, however, was higher when the resource pulse was delayed relative to the long-term average, suggesting that predators increase exploitation during years of minimal overlap between the resource pulse and energetically demanding periods (e.g. breeding, moulting). This long-term study quantifying responses of multiple predators to a pulsed resource illustrates the ability of natural systems to tolerate natural and human-induced disturbance events.

Maternal investment, body condition and calf growth in humpback whales

Given recent declines in North Pacific humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) reproductive output and calf survival, there is additional urgency to better understand how mother-calf pairs allocate energy resources across their migratory cycle. Here, unoccupied aerial system (UAS; or drone) photogrammetry was used to quantify the body size and condition (BC) of humpback whales on their Hawai'i (HI) breeding and Southeast Alaska (SEAK) feeding grounds. Between 2018 and 2022, we collected 2410 measurements of 1659 individuals. Rates of change in body volume (BV) and length (BL) were quantified using 803 repeat measurements of 275 individuals. On average, HI mothers lost 0.106 m3 or 96.84 kg day-1 while fasting, equivalent to 2641 MJ day-1 or 830 kg of krill and 424 kg of Pacific herring daily. HI calf BV and BL increased by 0.035 m3 and 2.6 cm day-1, respectively. In SEAK, maternal BV increased by 0.015 m3 or 14.54 kg day-1 (367 MJ day-1), while calf BV and BL increased by 0.039 m3 and 0.93 cm day-1, respectively. Maternal investment in calf growth correlated with both female BL and BC, with larger females producing larger, faster-growing calves. Finally, using 330 measurements from 156 females, we quantified differences in BC increase over four feeding seasons. Lactating females exhibited an average BC increase of 6.10%, half that of unclassified females (13.51%) and six times lower than pregnant females (37%). These findings represent novel insights into the life history of humpback whales across their migratory cycle, providing key baseline data for bioenergetic models elucidating the effects of anthropogenic disturbance and rapidly changing ocean ecosystems. KEY POINTS: On average, Hawai'i (HI) mothers lost 0.106 m3 or 96.84 kg day-1, equivalent to 2641 MJ day-1. Over a 60 day period, this corresponded to an estimated mean energetic cost of 158 GJ, or ≈50 tons of krill or ≈25 tons of Pacific herring, surpassing the total energetic cost of gestation estimated for humpback whales of similar length. In Southeast Alaska (SEAK), maternal body volume (BV) increased by just 0.015 m3 or 14.54 kg day-1 (367 MJ day-1). Further, SEAK lactating females showed the slowest rates of growth in body width and condition over a 150 day period compared to non-lactating females. Maternal investment in calf growth correlated with both maternal length and body condition, with larger females producing larger, faster-growing calves. In HI, however, the ratio between maternal BV lost and calf BV gained (conversion efficiency) was relatively low compared to other mammals.

Catastrophic and persistent loss of common murres after a marine heatwave

Recent marine heatwaves have had pervasive effects on marine ecosystems, from declines in primary production to die-offs of top predators. Seabird mortalities are often observed in association with heatwaves, but population impacts are not well understood. In this work, we report the rapid mortality of approximately half of Alaska's common murre (Uria aalge) population in response to an extreme marine heatwave. Between the 7-year period before (2008-2014) and after (2016-2022) the heatwave, murre numbers plummeted 52 to 78% at 13 colonies across two large marine ecosystems. We calculated a loss of 4.00 million common murres, the largest documented wildlife mortality event in the modern era. No evidence of recovery has yet been observed, suggesting that these ecosystems may no longer support historic numbers of seabird top predators.

Perturbations in a pelagic food web during the NE pacific large marine heatwave and persistent harmful diatom blooms

Unprecedented warm ocean conditions, driven by the Large Marine Heatwave (LMH) and the 2015-16 El Niño in the Northeast Pacific favored pervasive toxigenic Pseudo-nitzschia spp. blooms that caused widespread ecological impacts, but little is known about the magnitude to which marine food webs were altered. Here, we assessed the trophic transfer of domoic acid (DA; a neurotoxin) and changes in trophic position from multiple key species during the peak of the LMH and El Niño in 2015 in comparison with 2018, a reference non-anomalous warm year. DA and amino acid nitrogen isotopes (δ15N AAs) were quantified using liquid and gas chromatography mass spectrometry, respectively. Our integrative approach revealed extremely high levels of DA in anchovy viscera (>3000 μg/g) with contrasting baseline values (δ15N Phe) for southern California fish. These results together with data from northern CA revealed an unforeseen latitudinal isotopic variation in key DA vectors along California, possibly driven by anomalous restructuring of water masses. At the regional level, the observed cross-shore differences in baseline isotope values and DA toxicity suggest distinct pathways for DA trophic transfer for nearshore vs. offshore sites. Given the high levels of environmental disturbance during the LMH and persistence of toxigenic P. australis blooms, our resultant higher trophic position proxies in 2015 compared to 2018 were particularly unexpected. Such results highlight complex trophic interactions, where the trophic status of some species increased while others decreased in response to changes in net primary productivity, and biodiversity, and abundance of forage species. Our study demonstrates the use of δ15N AAs to identify pathways of N and DA trophic transfer and to quantify shifts in animal trophic position, a critical facet of understanding the response of food webs to climate change and DA production.

Responses at various levels of ecological hierarchy indicate acclimation to sequential sublethal heatwaves in a temperate benthic ecosystem

Marine heatwaves have caused massive mortality in coastal benthic ecosystems, altering community composition. Here, we aim to understand the effects of single and sequential sublethal heatwaves in a temperate benthic ecosystem, investigating their disturbance on various levels of ecological hierarchy, i.e. individual physiology, trophic groups' biomass and ecosystem carbon fluxes. To do so, we performed a near-natural experiment using outdoor benthic mesocosms along spring/summer, where communities were exposed to different thermal regimes: without heatwaves (0HW), with one heatwave (1HW) and with three heatwaves (3HWs). Gastropods were negatively impacted by one single heatwave treatment, but the exposure to three sequential heatwaves caused no response, indicating ecological stress memory. The magnitude of ecosystem carbon fluxes mostly decreased after 1HW, with a marked negative impact on mesograzers' feeding, while the overall intensity of carbon fluxes increased after 3HWs. Consumers' acclimation after the exposure to sequential heatwaves increased grazing activity, representing a threat for the macroalgae biomass. The evaluation of physiological responses and ecological interactions is crucial to interpret variations in community composition and to detect early signs of stress. Our results reveal the spread of heatwave effects along the ecological hierarchical levels, helping to predict the trajectories of ecosystem development.This article is part of the theme issue 'Connected interactions: enriching food web research by spatial and social interactions'.

Significant challenges to the sustainability of the California coast considering climate change

Climate change is an existential threat to the environmental and socioeconomic sustainability of the coastal zone and impacts will be complex and widespread. Evidence from California and across the United States shows that climate change is impacting coastal communities and challenging managers with a plethora of stressors already present. Widespread action could be taken that would sustain California's coastal ecosystems and communities. In this perspective, we highlight the main threat to coastal sustainability: the compound effects of episodic events amplified with ongoing climate change, which will present unprecedented challenges to the state. We present two key challenges for California's sustainability in the coastal zone: 1) accelerating sea-level rise combined with storm impacts, and 2) continued warming of the oceans and marine heatwaves. Cascading effects from these types of compounding events will occur within the context of an already stressed system that has experienced extensive alterations due to intensive development, resource extraction and harvesting, spatial containment, and other human use pressures. There are critical components that could be used to address these immediate concerns, including comanagement strategies that include diverse groups and organizations, strategic planning integrated across large areas, rapid implementation of solutions, and a cohesive and policy relevant research agenda for the California coast. Much of this has been started in the state, but the scale could be increased, and timelines accelerated. The ideas and information presented here are intended to help expand discussions to sharpen the focus on how to encourage sustainability of California's iconic coastal region.

Marine heatwaves alter the nursery function of coastal habitats for juvenile Gulf of Alaska Pacific cod

Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) can directly influence survival of marine fishes, particularly for early life stages, including age-0 juveniles during their residence in coastal nursery habitats. However, the ability of nurseries to support high fish densities, optimize foraging and growth, and protect against predators may be altered during MHWs. Gulf of Alaska Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) larval, juvenile, and adult abundances declined dramatically following MHW events in 2014-2016 and 2019. To evaluate coastal nursery function during MHWs, we compared diet composition, recent growth, size, condition, and abundance of age-0 juveniles throughout their first summer before, during, and between MHWs. Diet shifted to larger prey during MHWs, particularly mysids, but diet did not appear to influence growth. We observed faster growth rates during MHWs, yet even when accounting for growth, we could not explain the higher body sizes observed in August during MHWs. Together with lower abundance and the near absence of small fish in the nursery by August during MHWs, these patterns highlight potential for size-selection and a reduced ability of nursery habitats to buffer against environmental variability during MHWs, with only a small number of large "super survivors" persisting through the summer.

Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world

Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3° ± 1.0°C) compared to winter (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) during the mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming weakens mid-latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation, leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe's future.

Marine heatwaves disrupt ecosystem structure and function via altered food webs and energy flux

The prevalence and intensity of marine heatwaves is increasing globally, disrupting local environmental conditions. The individual and population-level impacts of prolonged heatwaves on marine species have recently been demonstrated, yet whole-ecosystem consequences remain unexplored. We leveraged time series abundance data of 361 taxa, grouped into 86 functional groups, from six long-term surveys, diet information from a new diet database, and previous modeling efforts, to build two food web networks using an extension of the popular Ecopath ecosystem modeling framework, Ecotran. We compare ecosystem models parameterized before and after the onset of recent marine heatwaves to evaluate the cascading effects on ecosystem structure and function in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. While the ecosystem-level contribution (prey) and demand (predators) of most functional groups changed following the heatwaves, gelatinous taxa experienced the largest transformations, underscored by the arrival of northward-expanding pyrosomes. We show altered trophic relationships and energy flux have potentially profound consequences for ecosystem structure and function, and raise concerns for populations of threatened and harvested species.

Bellwethers of change: population modelling of North Pacific humpback whales from 2002 through 2021 reveals shift from recovery to climate response

For the 40 years after the end of commercial whaling in 1976, humpback whale populations in the North Pacific Ocean exhibited a prolonged period of recovery. Using mark-recapture methods on the largest individual photo-identification dataset ever assembled for a cetacean, we estimated annual ocean-basin-wide abundance for the species from 2002 through 2021. Trends in annual estimates describe strong post-whaling era population recovery from 16 875 (± 5955) in 2002 to a peak abundance estimate of 33 488 (± 4455) in 2012. An apparent 20% decline from 2012 to 2021, 33 488 (± 4455) to 26 662 (± 4192), suggests the population abruptly reached carrying capacity due to loss of prey resources. This was particularly evident for humpback whales wintering in Hawai'i, where, by 2021, estimated abundance had declined by 34% from a peak in 2013, down to abundance levels previously seen in 2006, and contrasted to an absence of decline in Mainland Mexico breeding humpbacks. The strongest marine heatwave recorded globally to date during the 2014-2016 period appeared to have altered the course of species recovery, with enduring effects. Extending this time series will allow humpback whales to serve as an indicator species for the ecosystem in the face of a changing climate.

Investigation of a Mass Stranding Event Reveals a Novel Pattern of Cascading Comorbidities in Northern Fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis)

During 2018, a seabird mortality event occurred in central California, US, that affected Northern Fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis), Common Murres (Uria aalge), and Cassin's Auklets (Ptychoramphus aleuticus). An increase in beachcast birds were reported on standardized surveys in conjunction with an increased number of live-stranded birds admitted to rehabilitation centers. Neurologic symptoms were noted during intake examination for some birds. Coincident with the mortality event, increased levels of the harmful algal bloom toxins domoic acid and saxitoxin were recorded in Monterey Bay and Morro Bay. Birds that died in care and beachcast carcasses were submitted to the California Department of Fish and Wildlife-Marine Wildlife Veterinary Care and Research Center for postmortem examination (n=24). All examined birds were emaciated. Examined Common Murres and Cassin's Auklets had no gross evidence of preexisting disease; however, all examined Northern Fulmars exhibited severe pyogranulomatous inflammation of the urogenital system at gross postmortem exam. Tissues from nine Northern Fulmars were examined by histopathology, and samples from two Northern Fulmars were tested for the presence of domoic acid and saxitoxin. Histopathology revealed moderate to severe kidney infection by Eimeria sp. and gram-negative bacteria, intratubular urate stasis, ureter rupture, and emaciation. Additionally, domoic acid and saxitoxin were detected simultaneously in tissues of some tested birds. This communication highlights a novel pattern of cascading comorbidities in native seabirds from a mass stranding event.

Impact of anthropogenous environmental factors on the marine ecosystem of trophically transmitted helminths and hosting seabirds: Focus on North Atlantic, North Sea, Baltic and the Arctic seas

Alongside natural factors, human activities have a major impact on the marine environment and thus influence processes in vulnerable ecosystems. The major purpose of this review is to summarise the current understanding as to how manmade factors influence the marine biocenosis of helminths, their intermediate hosts as well as seabirds as their final hosts. Moreover, it highlights current knowledge gaps regarding this ecosystem, which should be closed in order to gain a more complete understanding of these interactions. This work is primarily focused on helminths parasitizing seabirds of the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The complex life cycles of seabird helminths may be impacted by fishing and aquaculture, as they interfere with the abundance of fish and seabird species, while the latter also affects the geographical distribution of intermediate hosts (marine bivalve and fish species), and may therefore alter the intertwined marine ecosystem. Increasing temperatures and seawater acidification as well as environmental pollutants may have negative or positive effects on different parts of this interactive ecosystem and may entail shifts in the abundance or regional distribution of parasites and/or intermediate and final hosts. Organic pollutants and trace elements may weaken the immune system of the hosting seabirds and hence affect the final host's ability to control the endoparasites. On the other hand, in some cases helminths seem to function as a sink for trace elements resulting in decreased concentrations of heavy metals in birds' tissues. Furthermore, this article also describes the role of helminths in mass mortality events amongst seabird populations, which beside natural causes (weather, viral and bacterial infections) have anthropogenous origin as well (e.g. oil spills, climate change, overfishing and environmental pollution).

Extreme and compound ocean events are key drivers of projected low pelagic fish biomass

Ocean extreme events, such as marine heatwaves, can have harmful impacts on marine ecosystems. Understanding the risks posed by such extreme events is key to develop strategies to predict and mitigate their effects. However, the underlying ocean conditions driving severe impacts on marine ecosystems are complex and often unknown as risks to marine ecosystems arise not only from hazards but also from the interactions between hazards, exposure and vulnerability. Marine ecosystems may not be impacted by extreme events in single drivers but rather by the compounding effects of moderate ocean anomalies. Here, we employ an ensemble climate-impact modeling approach that combines a global marine fish model with output from a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model, to identify the key ocean ecosystem drivers associated with the most severe impacts on the total biomass of 326 pelagic fish species. We show that low net primary productivity is the most influential driver of extremely low fish biomass over 68% of the ocean area considered by the model, especially in the subtropics and the mid-latitudes, followed by high temperature and low oxygen in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the high latitudes. Severe biomass loss is generally driven by extreme anomalies in at least one ocean ecosystem driver, except in the tropics, where a combination of moderate ocean anomalies is sufficient to drive extreme impacts. Single moderate anomalies never drive extremely low fish biomass. Compound events with either moderate or extreme ocean conditions are a necessary condition for extremely low fish biomass over 78% of the global ocean, and compound events with at least one extreme variable are a necessary condition over 61% of the global ocean. Overall, our model results highlight the crucial role of extreme and compound events in driving severe impacts on pelagic marine ecosystems.

Inconsistent shifts in warming and temperature variability are linked to reduced avian fitness

As the climate has warmed, many birds have advanced their breeding timing. However, as climate change also changes temperature distributions, breeding earlier might increase nestling exposure to either extreme heat or cold. Here, we combine >300,000 breeding records from 24 North American birds with historical temperature data to understand how exposure to extreme temperatures has changed. Average spring temperature increased since 1950 but change in timing of extremes was inconsistent in direction and magnitude; thus, populations could not track both average and extreme temperatures. Relative fitness was reduced following heatwaves and cold snaps in 11 and 16 of 24 species, respectively. Latitudinal variation in sensitivity in three widespread species suggests that vulnerability to extremes at range limits may contribute to range shifts. Our results add to evidence demonstrating that understanding individual sensitivity and its links to population level processes is critical for predicting vulnerability to changing climates.

Two decades of change in sea star abundance at a subtidal site in Puget Sound, Washington

Long-term datasets can reveal otherwise undetectable ecological trends, illuminating the historical context of contemporary ecosystem states. We used two decades (1997-2019) of scientific trawling data from a subtidal, benthic site in Puget Sound, Washington, USA to test for gradual trends and sudden shifts in total sea star abundance across 11 species. We specifically assessed whether this community responded to the sea star wasting disease (SSWD) epizootic, which began in 2013. We sampled at depths of 10, 25, 50 and 70 m near Port Madison, WA, and obtained long-term water temperature data. To account for species-level differences in SSWD susceptibility, we divided our sea star abundance data into two categories, depending on the extent to which the species is susceptible to SSWD, then conducted parallel analyses for high-susceptibility and moderate-susceptibility species. The abundance of high-susceptibility sea stars declined in 2014 across depths. In contrast, the abundance of moderate-susceptibility species trended downward throughout the years at the deepest depths- 50 and 70 m-and suddenly declined in 2006 across depths. Water temperature was positively correlated with the abundance of moderate-susceptibility species, and uncorrelated with high-susceptibility sea star abundance. The reported emergence of SSWD in Washington State in the summer of 2014 provides a plausible explanation for the subsequent decline in abundance of high-susceptibility species. However, no long-term stressors or mortality events affecting sea stars were reported in Washington State prior to these years, leaving the declines we observed in moderate-susceptibility species preceding the 2013-2015 SSWD epizootic unexplained. These results suggest that the subtidal sea star community in Port Madison is dynamic, and emphasizes the value of long-term datasets for evaluating patterns of change.

Short-tailed shearwater (Ardenna tenuirostris) plastic loads and particle dimensions exhibit spatiotemporal similarity in the Pacific Ocean

Short-tailed shearwater (Ardenna tenuirostris) stomach contents provide some of the earliest documentation of oceanic plastic pollution, one of the longer data series of seabird stomach samples, and the species' wide range in the North and South Pacific provides comparative data for the Pacific Ocean. A mortality event in the North Pacific in 2019 provided additional data for spatiotemporal comparisons. In the North Pacific the percent occurrence, mass, and number of pieces were similar since the first records in the 1970s. Particle size increased slightly reflecting a transition from uniform pre-manufactured pellets in initial reports to irregular user fragments in recent reports. Contemporary North and South Pacific plastic loads and particle dimensions were similar. A lack of temporal or spatial difference affirms previous conclusions that plastic retained in short-tailed shearwaters and other Procellariiformes is related to body size, gastrointestinal structure, and species' preferences rather than the availability of oceanic plastic.

Seasonal variability in resilience of a coral reef fish to marine heatwaves and hypoxia

Climate change projections indicate more frequent and severe tropical marine heatwaves (MHWs) and accompanying hypoxia year-round. However, most studies have focused on peak summer conditions under the assumption that annual maximum temperatures will induce the greatest physiological consequences. This study challenges this idea by characterizing seasonal MHWs (i.e., mean, maximum, and cumulative intensities, durations, heating rates, and mean annual occurrence) and comparing metabolic traits (i.e., standard metabolic rate (SMR), Q10 of SMR, maximum metabolic rate (MMR), aerobic scope, and critical oxygen tension (P_crit )) of winter- and summer-acclimatized convict tang (Acanthurus triostegus) to the combined effects of MHWs and hypoxia. Fish were exposed to one of six MHW treatments with seasonally varying maximum intensities (winter: 24.5, 26.5, 28.5°C; summer: 28.5, 30.5, 32.5°C), representing past and future MHWs under IPCC projections (i.e., +0, +2, +4°C). Surprisingly, MHW characteristics did not significantly differ between seasons, yet SMR was more sensitive to winter MHWs (mean Q10 = 2.92) than summer MHWs (mean Q10 = 1.81), despite higher absolute summer temperatures. Concurrently, MMR increased similarly among winter +2 and +4°C treatments (i.e., 26.5, 28.5°C) and all summer MHW treatments, suggesting a ceiling for maximal MMR increase. Aerobic scope did not significantly differ between seasons nor among MHW treatments. While mean P_crit did not significantly vary between seasons, warming of +4°C during winter (i.e., 28.5°C) significantly increased P_crit relative to the winter control group. Contrary to the idea of increased sensitivity to MHWs during the warmest time of year, our results reveal heightened sensitivity to the deleterious effects of winter MHWs, and that seasonal acclimatization to warmer summer conditions may bolster metabolic resilience to warming and hypoxia. Consequently, physiological sensitivity to MHWs and hypoxia may extend across larger parts of the year than previously expected, emphasizing the importance of evaluating climate change impacts during cooler seasons when essential fitness-related traits such as reproduction occur in many species.

Kelpwatch: A new visualization and analysis tool to explore kelp canopy dynamics reveals variable response to and recovery from marine heatwaves

Giant kelp and bull kelp forests are increasingly at risk from marine heatwave events, herbivore outbreaks, and the loss or alterations in the behavior of key herbivore predators. The dynamic floating canopy of these kelps is well-suited to study via satellite imagery, which provides high temporal and spatial resolution data of floating kelp canopy across the western United States and Mexico. However, the size and complexity of the satellite image dataset has made ecological analysis difficult for scientists and managers. To increase accessibility of this rich dataset, we created Kelpwatch, a web-based visualization and analysis tool. This tool allows researchers and managers to quantify kelp forest change in response to disturbances, assess historical trends, and allow for effective and actionable kelp forest management. Here, we demonstrate how Kelpwatch can be used to analyze long-term trends in kelp canopy across regions, quantify spatial variability in the response to and recovery from the 2014 to 2016 marine heatwave events, and provide a local analysis of kelp canopy status around the Monterey Peninsula, California. We found that 18.6% of regional sites displayed a significant trend in kelp canopy area over the past 38 years and that there was a latitudinal response to heatwave events for each kelp species. The recovery from heatwave events was more variable across space, with some local areas like Bahía Tortugas in Baja California Sur showing high recovery while kelp canopies around the Monterey Peninsula continued a slow decline and patchy recovery compared to the rest of the Central California region. Kelpwatch provides near real time spatial data and analysis support and makes complex earth observation data actionable for scientists and managers, which can help identify areas for research, monitoring, and management efforts.

Individual aerobic performance and anaerobic compensation in a temperate fish during a simulated marine heatwave

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change and have strong negative effects on ecosystem. Few studies have reproduced the complex nature of temperature changes of a MHW, while it is suggested that ectotherms may be more vulnerable to rapid changes such as during MHWs. Effects of an experimental MHW were investigated in the golden grey mullet Chelon auratus. Juveniles acclimated to 20 °C were exposed to a rapid 5 °C increase in temperature, followed by a five-day period at 25 °C, before quickly returning to 20°C. Metabolic variables (SMR-standard, MMR-maximum rate, AS-aerobic scope, EPOC-excess post‑oxygen consumption) and critical swimming speed (U_crit) were measured at different phases of this MHW and after a thermally stable recovery phase. Although the pattern was only significant for the SMR, the aerobic three variables describing aerobic metabolism (SMR, MMR and AS) immediately increased in fish exposed to the acute elevation of temperature, and remained elevated when fish stayed at 25 °C for five days. A similar increase of these metabolic variables was observed for fish that were progressively acclimated to 25 °C. This suggests that temperature increases contribute to increases in metabolism; however, the acute nature of the MHW had no influence. At the end of the MHW, the SMR remained elevated, suggesting an additional cost of obligatory activities due to the extreme event. In parallel, U_crit did not vary regardless of the thermal conditions. Concerning EPOC, it significantly increased only when fish were acutely exposed to 25 °C. This strongly suggests that fish may buffer the effects of acute changes in temperature by shifting to anaerobic metabolism. Globally, this species appears able to cope with this MHW, but that's without taking into consideration future projections describing an increase in both intensity and frequency of such events, as well as other stressors like pollution or hypoxia.

Monitoring and modelling marine zooplankton in a changing climate

Zooplankton are major consumers of phytoplankton primary production in marine ecosystems. As such, they represent a critical link for energy and matter transfer between phytoplankton and bacterioplankton to higher trophic levels and play an important role in global biogeochemical cycles. In this Review, we discuss key responses of zooplankton to ocean warming, including shifts in phenology, range, and body size, and assess the implications to the biological carbon pump and interactions with higher trophic levels. Our synthesis highlights key knowledge gaps and geographic gaps in monitoring coverage that need to be urgently addressed. We also discuss an integrated sampling approach that combines traditional and novel techniques to improve zooplankton observation for the benefit of monitoring zooplankton populations and modelling future scenarios under global changes.

Contrasting bottom-up effects of warming ocean on two king penguin populations

Breeding success is often correlated with climate, but the underlying bottom-up mechanisms remain elusive-particularly in marine environments. Consequently, conservation plans of many species often consider climate change as a unilateral threat, ignoring that even nearby populations can show contradicting trends with climate. Better understanding the relationship between climate and environment at different scales can help us interpret local differences in population trends, ultimately providing better tools to evaluate the global response of a species to threats such as global warming. We studied a growing king penguin population nesting at Kerguelen island (Southern Indian Ocean), hosting one of the largest colonies in the world. We used a unique dataset of foraging, breeding success, and climate data spanning over 25 years to examine the links between climate, marine environment, and breeding success at this colony. The results were then compared to the neighboring population of Crozet, which experienced the steepest decline for this species over the past few decades. At Crozet, penguins experienced lower breeding success in warmer years due to productive currents shifting away from the colony, affecting foraging behavior during chick rearing. At Kerguelen, while chick mass and survival experienced extreme variation from year to year, the annual variation was not associated with the position of the currents, which varied very little compared to the situation in Crozet. Rather than being affected by prey distribution shifts, we found evidence that chick provisioning in Kerguelen might be influenced by prey abundance, which seem to rather increase in warmer conditions. Furthermore, warmer air temperature in winter increased chick survival rate, likely due to reduced thermoregulation cost. Investigating the mechanisms between climate and fitness allowed us to predict two different fates for these populations regarding ongoing global warming.

Environmental conditions and marine heatwaves influence blue whale foraging and reproductive effort

Animal behavior is motivated by the fundamental need to feed and reproduce, and these behaviors can be inferred from spatiotemporal variations in biological signals such as vocalizations. Yet, linking foraging and reproductive effort to environmental drivers can be challenging for wide-ranging predator species. Blue whales are acoustically active marine predators that produce two distinct vocalizations: song and D calls. We examined environmental correlates of these vocalizations using continuous recordings from five hydrophones in the South Taranaki Bight region of Aotearoa New Zealand to investigate call behavior relative to ocean conditions and infer life history patterns. D calls were strongly correlated with oceanographic drivers of upwelling in spring and summer, indicating associations with foraging effort. In contrast, song displayed a highly seasonal pattern with peak intensity in fall, which aligned with the timing of conception inferred from whaling records. Finally, during a marine heatwave, reduced foraging (inferred from D calls) was followed by lower reproductive effort (inferred from song intensity).

Large and transient positive temperature anomalies in Washington's coastal nearshore waters during the 2013-2015 northeast Pacific marine heatwave

The northern portion of Washington's outer coast-known locally as the Olympic coast-is a dynamic region characterized by seasonal upwelling that predominates during summer interrupted by occasional periods of downwelling. We examined spring-to-fall water temperature records collected along this coast from 2001-2015 from April to October at four nearshore locations (Cape Elizabeth to Makah Bay) that span one degree of latitude and are located within 15 km of the shore. When compared against a long-term climatology created for 2001-2013, seven-day smoothed temperature anomalies of up to 4.5°C at 40 m depth during 2014 and 2015 show short-term warm events lasting 10-20 days. These periods of warming occurred within the well documented marine heatwave in the Northeast Pacific and were about twice the seasonal temperature range in the climatology at that depth. These warm events were strongly correlated with periods of northward long-shore winds and upper ocean currents, consistent with what is expected for the response to downwelling-favorable winds. While our focus a priori was on 2014 and 2015, we also found large positive temperature events in 2013, which were potentially related to the early stage of the marine heatwave, and in 2011, which did not have a documented marine heatwave. This indicates that near-shore short-term warm events occur during periods of large-scale offshore marine heatwave events, but also can occur in the absence of a large-scale marine heatwave event when downwelling-favorable winds occur during the summer/early fall.

Biological Impacts of Marine Heatwaves

Climatic extremes are becoming increasingly common against a background trend of global warming. In the oceans, marine heatwaves (MHWs)-discrete periods of anomalously warm water-have intensified and become more frequent over the past century, impacting the integrity of marine ecosystems globally. We review and synthesize current understanding of MHW impacts at the individual, population, and community levels. We then examine how these impacts affect broader ecosystem services and discuss the current state of research on biological impacts of MHWs. Finally, we explore current and emergent approaches to predicting the occurrence andimpacts of future events, along with adaptation and management approaches. With further increases in intensity and frequency projected for coming decades, MHWs are emerging as pervasive stressors to marine ecosystems globally. A deeper mechanistic understanding of their biological impacts is needed to better predict and adapt to increased MHW activity in the Anthropocene.

Pulse disturbances in age-structured populations: Life history predicts initial impact and recovery time

Understanding population responses to discrete 'pulsed' environmental disturbances is essential to conservation and adaptive management. Populations of concern can be driven to low levels by disturbance, and understanding interspecific differences in recovery trajectories is necessary for evaluating management options. We analysed single-species models to investigate the demographic and management factors determining the two components of population 'resilience': the magnitude of initial impact on population abundance, and duration of the recovery time. We simulated age-structured populations with density-dependent recruitment, subjected to a pulse disturbance consisting of a period of increased mortality of either the juvenile age class or all age classes, and calculated both impact and return time. For illustration, we used demographic parameters from a suite of 16 fish species. We formulated the model as a renewal equation, allowing us to describe disturbance impacts mathematically as a convolution. We also included nonlinear dynamics, representing populations that recover to a steady state; this is more realistic (in most cases) than prior analyses of resilience in linear models without density-dependence. When the disturbance affected only one or a few young age-classes, longevity was the major life-history determinant of impact and recovery time. Shorter-lived species endured greater impacts when disturbed because each age class is a greater proportion of the population. However, shorter-lived species also had faster recovery times, for the same reason. When disturbance affected adult age-classes, the impact was more immediate and no longer affected by species' longevity, though the effect of longevity on recovery time remained. These results improve our understanding of interspecific differences in resilience and increase our ability to make predictions for adaptive management. Additionally, formulating the problem as a renewal equation and using mathematical convolutions allows us to quantify how disturbances with different time courses (not just an immediate, constant level of disturbance but gradually increasing or decreasing levels of disturbance) would have different effects on population resilience: delayed responses for species in which biomass is concentrated in older age classes, and for disturbances that become progressively more severe.

Environment-triggered demographic changes cascade and compound to propel a dramatic decline of an Antarctic seabird metapopulation

While seabirds are well-known for making a living under some of the harshest conditions on the planet, their capacity to buffer against unfavourable conditions can be stretched in response to ecosystem change. During population increases, overlap between conspecifics can limit population growth through competition for breeding or feeding resources. What is less well understood is the role that intrinsic processes play during periods of population decline or under a changing environment. We interrogate key demographic parameters and their biophysical drivers to understand the role of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers during a recent near halving of a large Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) metapopulation. The loss of 154,000 breeding birds along the 100-km East Antarctic coastline centred around 63°E over the last decade diverges from a sustained increase over preceding decades and is contrary to recent models that predict a continued increase. The decline was initially triggered by changed environmental conditions: more extensive near-shore sea ice caused a reduction in breeding success. The evidence suggests this decline was exacerbated by feedback processes driving an inverse density-dependent decrease in fledgling survival in response to smaller cohort size. It appears that the old adage of safety in numbers may shape the fledgling penguins' chances of survival and, if compromised over multiple years, could exacerbate difficulties during population decline or if feedback processes arise. The likely interplay between demographic parameters meant that conditions were more unfavourable and negative effects more rapid than would be expected if demographic processes acted in isolation or independently. Failure to capture both intrinsic and extrinsic drivers in predictive population models may mean that the real impacts of climate change on species' populations are more severe than projections would lead us to believe. These results improve our understanding of population regulation during periods of rapid decline for long-lived marine species.

Review of harmful algal bloom effects on birds with implications for avian wildlife in the Chesapeake Bay region

The Chesapeake Bay, along the mid-Atlantic coast of North America, is the largest estuary in the United States and provides critical habitat for wildlife. In contrast to point and non-point source release of pesticides, metals, and industrial, personal care and household use chemicals on biota in this watershed, there has only been scant attention to potential exposure and effects of algal toxins on wildlife in the Chesapeake Bay region. As background, we first review the scientific literature on algal toxins and harmful algal bloom (HAB) events in various regions of the world that principally affected birds, and to a lesser degree other wildlife. To examine the situation for the Chesapeake, we compiled information from government reports and databases summarizing wildlife mortality events for 2000 through 2020 that were associated with potentially toxic algae and HAB events. Summary findings indicate that there have been few wildlife mortality incidents definitively linked to HABs, other mortality events that were suspected to be related to HABs, and more instances in which HABs may have indirectly contributed to or occurred coincident with wildlife mortality. The dominant toxins found in the Chesapeake Bay drainage that could potentially affect wildlife are microcystins, with concentrations in water approaching or exceeding human-based thresholds for ceasing recreational use and drinking water at a number of locations. As an increasing trend in HAB events in the U.S. and in the Chesapeake Bay have been reported, additional information on HAB toxin exposure routes, comparative sensitivity among species, consequences of sublethal exposure, and better diagnostic and risk criteria would greatly assist in predicting algal toxin hazard and risks to wildlife.

Minor Genetic Consequences of a Major Mass Mortality: Short-Term Effects in Pisaster ochraceus

AbstractMass mortality events are increasing globally in frequency and magnitude, largely as a result of human-induced change. The effects of these mass mortality events, in both the long and short term, are of imminent concern because of their ecosystem impacts. Genomic data can be used to reveal some of the population-level changes associated with mass mortality events. Here, we use reduced-representation sequencing to identify potential short-term genetic impacts of a mass mortality event associated with a sea star wasting outbreak. We tested for changes in the population for genetic differentiation, diversity, and effective population size between pre-sea star wasting and post-sea star wasting populations of Pisaster ochraceus-a species that suffered high sea star wasting-associated mortality (75%-100% at 80% of sites). We detected no significant population-based genetic differentiation over the spatial scale sampled; however, the post-sea star wasting population tended toward more differentiation across sites than the pre-sea star wasting population. Genetic estimates of effective population size did not detectably change, consistent with theoretical expectations; however, rare alleles were lost. While we were unable to detect significant population-based genetic differentiation or changes in effective population size over this short time period, the genetic burden of this mass mortality event may be borne by future generations, unless widespread recruitment mitigates the population decline. Prior results from P. ochraceus indicated that natural selection played a role in altering allele frequencies following this mass mortality event. In addition to the role of selection found in a previous study on the genomic impacts of sea star wasting on P. ochraceus, our current study highlights the potential role the stochastic loss of many individuals plays in altering how genetic variation is structured across the landscape. Future genetic monitoring is needed to determine long-term genetic impacts in this long-lived species. Given the increased frequency of mass mortality events, it is important to implement demographic and genetic monitoring strategies that capture baselines and background dynamics to better contextualize species' responses to large perturbations.

The influence of global climate change on accumulation and toxicity of persistent organic pollutants and chemicals of emerging concern in Arctic food webs

This review summarizes current understanding of how climate change-driven physical and ecological processes influence the levels of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and contaminants of emerging Arctic concern (CEACs) in Arctic biota and food webs. The review also highlights how climate change may interact with other stressors to impact contaminant toxicity, and the utility of modeling and newer research tools in closing knowledge gaps on climate change-contaminant interactions. Permafrost thaw is influencing the concentrations of POPs in freshwater ecosystems. Physical climate parameters, including climate oscillation indices, precipitation, water salinity, sea ice age, and sea ice quality show statistical associations with POPs concentrations in multiple Arctic biota. Northward range-shifting species can act as biovectors for POPs and CEACs into Arctic marine food webs. Shifts in trophic position can alter POPs concentrations in populations of Arctic species. Reductions in body condition are associated with increases in levels of POPs in some biota. Although collectively understudied, multiple stressors, including contaminants and climate change, may act to cumulatively impact some populations of Arctic biota. Models are useful for predicting the net result of various contrasting climate-driven processes on POP and CEAC exposures; however, for some parameters, especially food web changes, insufficient data exists with which to populate such models. In addition to the impact of global regulations on POP levels in Arctic biota, this review demonstrates that there are various direct and indirect mechanisms by which climate change can influence contaminant exposure, accumulation, and effects; therefore, it is important to attribute POP variations to the actual contributing factors to inform future regulations and policies. To do so, a broad range of habitats, species, and processes must be considered for a thorough understanding and interpretation of the consequences to the distribution, accumulation, and effects of environmental contaminants. Given the complex interactions between climate change, contaminants, and ecosystems, it is important to plan for long-term, integrated pan-Arctic monitoring of key biota and ecosystems, and to collect ancillary data, including information on climate-related parameters, local meteorology, ecology, and physiology, and when possible, behavior, when carrying out research on POPs and CEACs in biota and food webs of the Arctic.

Live-fast-die-young: Carryover effects of heatwave-exposed adult urchins on the development of the next generation

With rising ocean temperatures, extreme weather events such as marine heatwaves (MHWs) are increasing in frequency and duration, pushing marine life beyond their physiological limits. The potential to respond to extreme conditions through physiological acclimatization, and pass on resistance to the next generation, fundamentally depends on the capacity of an organism to cope within their thermal tolerance limits. To elucidate whether heat conditioning of parents could benefit offspring development, we exposed adult sea urchins (Heliocidaris erythrogramma) to ambient summer (23°C), moderate (25°C) or strong (26°C) MHW conditions for 10 days. Offspring were then reared at constant temperature along a thermal gradient (22-28°C) and development was tracked to the 14-day juvenile stage. Progeny from the MHW-conditioned adults developed through to metamorphosis faster than those of ambient conditioned parents, with most individuals from the moderate and strong heatwaves developing to the larval stage across all temperatures. In contrast, the majority of offspring from the control summer temperature died before metamorphosis at temperatures above 25°C (moderate MHW). Juveniles produced from the strong MHW-conditioned adults were also larger across all temperatures, with the largest juveniles in the 26°C treatment. In contrast, the smallest juveniles were from control (current-day summer) parents (and reared at 22 and 25°C). Surprisingly, initial survival was higher in the progeny of MHW exposed parents, even at temperatures hotter than predicted MHWs (28°C). Importantly, however, there was substantial mortality of juveniles from the strong MHW parents by day 14. Therefore, while carryover effects of parental conditioning to MHWs resulted in faster growing, larger progeny, this benefit will only persist beyond the more sensitive juvenile stage and enhance survival if conditions return promptly to normal seasonal temperatures within current thermal tolerance limits.

Marine Pelagic Ecosystem Responses to Climate Variability and Change

The marine coastal region makes up just 10% of the total area of the global ocean but contributes nearly 20% of its total primary production and over 80% of fisheries landings. Unicellular phytoplankton dominate primary production. Climate variability has had impacts on various marine ecosystems, but most sites are just approaching the age at which ecological responses to longer term, unidirectional climate trends might be distinguished. All five marine pelagic sites in the US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network are experiencing warming trends in surface air temperature. The marine physical system is responding at all sites with increasing mixed layer temperatures and decreasing depth and with declining sea ice cover at the two polar sites. Their ecological responses are more varied. Some sites show multiple population or ecosystem changes, whereas, at others, changes have not been detected, either because more time is needed or because they are not being measured.

Paralytic shellfish toxins associated with Arctic Tern mortalities in Alaska

Harmful algal blooms produce biotoxins that can injure or kill fish, wildlife, and humans. These blooms occur naturally but have intensified in many locations globally due to recent climatic changes, including ocean warming. Such changes are especially pronounced in northern regions, where the effects of paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) on marine wildlife are of growing concern. In Alaska, seabird mortality events have increased in frequency, magnitude, and duration since 2015 alongside anomalously high ocean temperatures. Although starvation has been implicated as the apparent cause of death in many of these die-offs, saxitoxin (STX) and other PSTs have been identified as possible contributing factors. Here, we describe a mortality event at a nesting colony of Arctic Terns (Sterna paradisaea) near Juneau, Alaska in 2019 and report elevated concentrations of PSTs in bird, forage fish, and mussel samples. Concentrations of STX and other PSTs in tern tissues (2.5-51.2 µg 100g-1 STX-equivalents [STX-eq]) were of similar magnitude to those reported from other PST-induced bird die-offs. We documented high PST concentrations in blue mussels (>11,000 µg 100g-1 STX-eq; Mytilus edulis spp.) collected from nearby beaches, as well as in forage fish (up to 494 µg 100g-1 STX-eq) retrieved from Arctic Tern nests, thereby providing direct evidence of PST exposure via the terns' prey. At maximum concentrations measured in this study, a single 5 g Pacific Sand Lance (Ammodytes personatus) could exceed the median lethal STX dose (LD50) currently estimated for birds, offering strong support for PSTs as a likely source of tern mortality. In addition to describing this localized bird mortality event, we used existing energetics data from adult and nestling Arctic Terns to calculate estimated cumulative daily PST exposure based on ecologically relevant concentrations in forage fish. Our estimates revealed potentially lethal levels of PST exposure even at relatively low (≤30 ug 100g-1 STX-eq) toxin concentrations in prey. These findings suggest that PSTs present a significant hazard to Arctic Terns and other northern seabirds and should be included in future investigations of avian mortality events as well as assessments of population health.

Food supply and individual quality influence seabird energy expenditure and reproductive success

Breeding animals trade off maximizing energy output to increase their number of offspring with conserving energy to ensure their own survival, leading to an energetic ceiling influenced by external, environmental factors or by internal, physiological factors. We examined whether internal or external factors limited energy expenditure by supplementally feeding breeding black-legged kittiwakes varying in individual quality, based on earlier work that defined late breeders as low-quality and early breeders as high-quality individuals. We tested whether energy expenditure increased when food availability decreased in both low- and high-quality birds; we predicted this would only occur in high-quality individuals capable of sustaining high levels of energy expenditure. Here, we find that food-supplemented birds expended less energy than control birds because they spent more time at the colony. However, foraging trips of food-supplemented birds were only slightly shorter than control birds, implying that food-supplemented birds were limited by food availability at sea similarly to control birds. Late breeders expended less energy, suggesting that low-quality individuals may not intake the energy necessary for sustaining high-energy output. Food-supplemented birds had more offspring than control birds, but offspring number did not influence energy expenditure, supporting the idea that the birds reached an energy ceiling. Males and lighter birds expended more energy, possibly compensating for relatively higher energy intake. Chick-rearing birds were working near their maximum, with highest levels of expenditure for early-laying (high-quality) individuals foraging at sea. Due to fluctuating marine environments, kittiwakes may be forced to change their foraging behaviors to maintain the balance between reproduction and survival.

Successive extreme climatic events lead to immediate, large-scale, and diverse responses from fish in the Arctic

The warming trend of the Arctic is punctuated by several record-breaking warm years with very low sea ice concentrations. The nature and reversibility of marine ecosystem responses to these multiple extreme climatic events (ECEs) are poorly understood. Here, we investigate the ecological signatures of three successive bottom temperature maxima concomitant with surface ECEs between 2004 and 2017 in the Barents Sea across spatial and organizational scales. We observed community-level redistributions of fish concurrent with ECEs at the scale of the whole Barents Sea. Three groups, characterized by different sets of traits describing their capacity to cope with short-term perturbations, reacted with different timing and intensity to each ECE. Arctic species co-occurred more frequently with large predators and incoming boreal taxa during ECEs, potentially affecting food web structures and functional diversity, accelerating the impacts of long-term climate change. On the species level, responses were highly diversified, with different ECEs impacting different species, and species responses (expansion, geographical shift) varying from one ECE to another, despite the environmental perturbations being similar. Past ECEs impacts, with potential legacy effects, lagged responses, thresholds, and interactions with the underlying warming pressure, could constantly set up new initial conditions that drive the unique ecological signature of each ECE. These results highlight the complexity of ecological reactions to multiple ECEs and give prominence to several sources of process uncertainty in the predictions of climate change impact and risk for ecosystem management. Long-term monitoring and studies to characterize the vertical extent of each ECE are necessary to statistically link demersal species and environmental spatial-temporal patterns. In the future, regular monitoring will be crucial to detect early signals of change and understand the determinism of ECEs, but we need to adapt our models and management to better integrate risk and stochasticity from the complex impacts of global change.

Characterization, Selection, and Trans-Species Polymorphism in the MHC Class II of Heermann’s Gull (Charadriiformes)

The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) enables vertebrates to cope with pathogens and maintain healthy populations, thus making it a unique set of loci for addressing ecology and evolutionary biology questions. The aim of our study was to examine the variability of Heermann’s Gull MHC class II (MHCIIB) and compare these loci with other Charadriiformes. Fifty-nine MHCIIB haplotypes were recovered from sixty-eight Heermann’s Gulls by cloning, of them, twelve were identified as putative true alleles, forty-five as unique alleles, and two as pseudogenes. Intra and interspecific relationships indicated at least two loci in Heermann’s Gull MHCIIB and trans-species polymorphism among Charadriiformes (coinciding with the documented evidence of two ancient avian MHCIIB lineages, except in the Charadriidae family). Additionally, sites under diversifying selection revealed a better match with peptide-binding sites inferred in birds than those described in humans. Despite the negative anthropogenic activity reported on Isla Rasa, Heermann’s Gull showed MHCIIB variability consistent with population expansion, possibly due to a sudden growth following conservation efforts. Duplication must play an essential role in shaping Charadriiformes MHCIIB variability, buffering selective pressures through balancing selection. These findings suggest that MHC copy number and protected islands can contribute to seabird conservation.

Global decline in ocean memory over the 21st century

Ocean memory, the persistence of ocean conditions, is a major source of predictability in the climate system beyond weather time scales. We show that ocean memory, as measured by the year-to-year persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies, is projected to steadily decline in the coming decades over much of the globe. This global decline in ocean memory is predominantly driven by shoaling of the upper-ocean mixed layer depth in response to global surface warming, while thermodynamic and dynamic feedbacks can contribute substantially regionally. As the mixed layer depth shoals, stochastic forcing becomes more effective in driving sea surface temperature anomalies, increasing high-frequency noise at the expense of persistent signals. Reduced ocean memory results in shorter lead times of skillful persistence-based predictions of sea surface thermal conditions, which may present previously unknown challenges for predicting climate extremes and managing marine biological resources under climate change.