Inferring extinction from a sighting record

Bullet ricochet mark plan-view morphology in concrete: an experimental assessment of five bullet types and two distances using machine learning

Bullet ricochets are common occurrences during shooting incidents and can provide a wealth of information useful for shooting incident reconstruction. However, there have only been a small number of studies that have systematically investigated bullet ricochet impact site morphology. Here, this study reports on an experiment that examined the plan-view morphology of 297 ricochet impact sites in concrete that were produced by five different bullet types shot from two distances. This study used a random forest machine learning algorithm to classify bullet types with morphological dimensions of the ricochet mark (impact) with length and perimeter-to-area ratio emerging as the top predictor variables. The 0.22 LR leaves the most distinctive impact mark on the concrete, and overall, the classification accuracy using leave-one-out cross-validation is 62%, considerably higher than a random classification accuracy of 20%. Adding in distance to the model as a predictor increases the classification accuracy to 66%. These initial results are promising, in that they suggest that an unknown bullet type can potentially be determined, or at least probabilistically assessed, from the morphology of the ricochet impact site alone. However, the substantial amount of overlap this study documented among distinct bullet types' ricochet mark morphologies under highly controlled conditions and with machine learning suggests that the human identification of ricochet marks in real-world shooting incident reconstructions may be on occasion, or perhaps regularly, in error.

Key points

Bullet ricochet impact sites can help with shooting incident reconstruction.A random forest machine learning algorithm classified bullet type from ricochet morphology.Results suggest that unknown bullets can potentially be determined from ricochet impact site morphology.Human identification of bullet types from ricochet sites may be erroneous.

Hominins likely occupied northern Europe before one million years ago

Our understanding of when hominins first reached northern Europe is dependent on a fragmented archaeological and fossil record known from as early as marine isotope stage (MIS) 21 or 25 (c. 840 or 950 thousand years ago [Ka]). This contrasts sharply with southern Europe, where hominin occupation is evidenced from MIS 37 to 45 (c. 1.22 or 1.39 million years ago [Ma]). Northern Europe, however, exhibits climatic, geological, demographic, and historical disadvantages when it comes to preserving fossil and archaeological evidence of early hominin habitation. It is argued here that perceived differences in first occupation timings between the two European regions needs to be revised in light of these factors. To enhance this understanding, optimal linear estimation models are run using data from the current fossil and artefact record. Results suggest northern Europe to have first been occupied as early as 1.16 Ma, or as late as 913 Ka. These timings could represent minimum date expectations and be extended through future archaeological and fossil discoveries.

Optimal linear estimation models predict 1400-2900 years of overlap between Homo sapiens and Neandertals prior to their disappearance from France and northern Spain

Recent fossil discoveries suggest that Neandertals and Homo sapiens may have co-existed in Europe for as long as 5 to 6000 years. Yet, evidence for their contemporaneity at any regional scale remains highly elusive. In France and northern Spain, a region which features some of the latest directly-dated Neandertals in Europe, Protoaurignacian assemblages attributed to Homo sapiens appear to ‘replace’ Neandertal-associated Châtelperronian assemblages. Using the earliest and latest known occurrences as starting points, Bayesian modelling has provided indication that these occupations may in fact have been partly contemporaneous. The reality, however, is that we are unlikely to ever identify the ‘first’ or ‘last’ appearance of a species or cultural tradition in the archaeological and fossil record. Here, we use optimal linear estimation modelling to estimate the first appearance date of Homo sapiens and the extinction date of Neandertals in France and northern Spain by statistically inferring these ‘missing’ portions of the Protoaurignacian and Châtelperronian archaeological records. Additionally, we estimate the extinction date of Neandertals in this region using a dataset of directly-dated Neandertal fossil remains. Our total dataset consists of sixty-six modernly produced radiocarbon determinations which we recalibrated using the newest calibration curve (IntCal20) to produce updated age ranges. The results suggest that the onset of the Homo sapiens occupation of this region likely preceded the extinction of Neandertals and the Châtelperronian by up to 1400–2900 years. This reaffirms the Bayesian-derived duration of co-existence between these groups during the initial Upper Palaeolithic of this region using a novel independent method, and indicates that our understanding of the timing of these occupations may not be suffering from substantial gaps in the record. Whether or not this co-existence featured some form of direct interaction, however, remains to be resolved.

Postglacial species arrival and diversity buildup of northern ecosystems took millennia

What drives ecosystem buildup, diversity, and stability? We assess species arrival and ecosystem changes across 16 millennia by combining regional-scale plant sedimentary ancient DNA from Fennoscandia with near-complete DNA and trait databases. We show that postglacial arrival time varies within and between plant growth forms. Further, arrival times were mainly predicted by adaptation to temperature, disturbance, and light. Major break points in ecological trait diversity were seen between 13.9 and 10.8 calibrated thousand years before the present (cal ka BP), as well as break point in functional diversity at 12.0 cal ka BP, shifting from a state of ecosystem buildup to a state where most habitat types and biotic ecosystem components were in place. Trait and functional diversity stabilized around 8 cal ka BP, after which both remained stable, although changes in climate took place and species inflow continued. Our ecosystem reconstruction indicates a millennial-scale time phase of formation to reach stable and resilient levels of diversity and functioning.

Avian extinctions induced by the oldest Amazonian hydropower mega dam: evidence from museum collections and sighting data spanning 172 years

Hydroelectric dams represent an emergent threat to lowland tropical forest biodiversity. Despite the large number of operational, under-construction, and planned hydroelectric dams, their long-term effects on biodiversity loss are still poorly documented. Here, we investigate avian extinctions resulting from the Tucuruí Hydroelectric Reservoir (THR), the oldest Amazonian mega dam, which impounded the Tocantins River in 1984. Our avian inventory-based on several sampling methods (mist-netting, point-counts, boat census and qualitative surveys) during 280 days of fieldwork from 2005 to 2007-was combined with an exhaustive search of museum vouchers and digital online databases of citizen science from the lower Tocantins River to identify long-term trends in species persistence and extinction in the THR influence area. The regional avifauna was comprised of 479 species, 404 of which were recorded during our fieldwork. Based on recent and historical records spanning 172 years, we found evidence for likely extinctions at THR influence area for 53 (11.06%) species that have remained entirely unreported since 1984. We were further able to estimate extinction probabilities for 20 species; 15 species were considered to be extinct, including Psophia interjecta and Pyrilia vulturina that are red-listed by IUCN. Our study serves as a baseline for avifaunal monitoring in the THR influence area and shows that degree of habitat specialization is a key factor in determining species extinctions caused by nonrandom habitat loss from either inundation or deforestation. Avian species extinctions will most likely continue across the area affected by the reservoir as a direct impact of alluvial forest loss and ongoing habitat degradation of upland forests.

Dating first cases of COVID-19

Questions persist as to the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence is building that its origin as a zoonotic spillover occurred prior to the officially accepted timing of early December, 2019. Here we provide novel methods to date the origin of COVID-19 cases. We show that six countries had exceptionally early cases, unlikely to represent part of their main case series. The model suggests a likely timing of the first case of COVID-19 in China as November 17 (95% CI October 4). Origination dates are discussed for the first five countries outside China and each continent. Results infer that SARS-CoV-2 emerged in China in early October to mid-November, and by January, had spread globally. This suggests an earlier and more rapid timeline of spread. Our study provides new approaches for estimating dates of the arrival of infectious diseases based on small samples that can be applied to many epidemiological situations.

While the COVID-19 pandemic continues, questions still persist as to its origins. Evidence is building that its origin as a zoonotic spillover occurred before the officially accepted timing of early December, 2019. We date the origin of COVID-19 cases from 203 countries and territories using a model from conservation science. We use a method that was originally developed to date the timing of extinction, and turn it to date the timing of origination using case dates rather than sighting events. Our results suggest that the virus emerged in China in early October to mid-November, 2019 (the most likely date being November 17), and by January, 2020, had spread globally. This suggests a much earlier and more rapid spread than is evident from confirmed cases. In addition, our study provides a new approach for estimating dates of the arrival of infectious diseases in new areas that can be applied to many different situations in the future.

Statistical inference of earlier origins for the first flaked stone technologies

Identifying when hominins first produced Lomekwian, Oldowan, and Acheulean technologies is vital to multiple avenues of human origins research. Yet, like most archaeological endeavors, our understanding is currently only as accurate as the artifacts recovered and the sites identified. Here we use optimal linear estimation (OLE) modelling to identify the portion of the archaeological record not yet discovered, and statistically infer the date of origin of the earliest flaked stone technologies. These models provide the most accurate framework yet for understanding when hominins first produced these tool types. Our results estimate the Oldowan to have originated 2.617 to 2.644 Ma, 36,000 to 63,000 years earlier than current evidence. The Acheulean's origin is pushed back further through OLE, by at least 55,000 years to 1.815 to 1.823 Ma. We were unable to infer the Lomekwian's date of origin using OLE, but an upper bound of 5.1 million years can be inferred using alternative nonparametric techniques. These dates provide a new chronological foundation from which to understand the emergence of the first flaked stone technologies, alongside their behavioral and evolutionary implications. Moreover, they suggest there to be substantial portions of the artifact record yet to be discovered.

Extinction rate of discovered and undiscovered plants in Singapore

Extinction is a key issue in the assessment of global biodiversity. However, many extinction rate measures do not account for species that went extinct before they could be discovered. The highly developed island city-state of Singapore has one of the best-documented tropical floras in the world. This allowed us to estimate the total rate of floristic extinctions in Singapore since 1822 after accounting for sampling effort and crypto extinctions by collating herbaria records. Our database comprised 34,224 specimens from 2076 native species, of which 464 species (22%) were considered nationally extinct. We assumed that undiscovered species had the same annual per-species extinction rates as discovered species and that no undiscovered species remained extant. With classical and Bayesian algorithms, we estimated that 304 (95% confidence interval, 213-414) and 412 (95% credible interval, 313-534) additional species went extinct before they could be discovered, respectively; corresponding total extinction rate estimates were 32% and 35% (range 30-38%). We detected violations of our 2 assumptions that could cause our extinction estimates, particularly the absolute numbers, to be biased downward. Thus, our estimates should be treated as lower bounds. Our results illustrate the possible magnitudes of plant extirpations that can be expected in the tropics as development continues.

Extinction of one of the world's largest freshwater fishes: Lessons for conserving the endangered Yangtze fauna

The mega river ecosystem of the Yangtze River was once home to diverse aquatic megafauna but is increasingly affected by various anthropogenic stressors that have resulted in continuous loss of biodiversity, such as the probable extinction of Yangtze River Dolphin. The Chinese paddlefish, Psephurus gladius, was one of only two extant members of a relict lineage that was most diverse and widespread 34-75 million years ago. It is also one of the largest freshwater fish species, reaching up to 7 m in length. The Chinese paddlefish was once common in the Yangtze River, with c.25 t being harvested per annum during the 1970s. Populations have, however, declined drastically since the late 1970s as a result of overfishing and habitat fragmentation. Here, a basin-wide capture survey during 2017-2018 found 332 fish species, but did not find a single specimen of Chinese paddlefish. Furthermore, 140 historically reported fish species have not been found and most of them are considered highly endangered. Based on 210 sightings of Chinese paddlefish during the period 1981-2003, we estimated the timing of extinction to be by 2005, and no later than by 2010. In addition, the paddlefish probably became functionally extinct (i.e. it was unable to reproduce) by 1993, before it went extinct. It is likely that the lack of reproduction was among the major causes of extinction. As no individuals exist in captivity, and no living tissues are conserved for potential resurrection, the fish should be considered extinct according to the IUCN Red List criteria. The delayed extinction of Chinese paddlefish resulted from multiple threats, suggesting that optimizing conservation efforts on endangered Yangtze fauna is urgently needed.

Inferring the extinction of species known only from a single specimen

Many species are poorly known, with the sum of our knowledge represented by specimens in museums. For assessment of conservation status the most enigmatic and challenging species are probably those known only from a single specimen. We examine the potential persistence of such species using the orchid flora of Madagascar as a case study. We apply a statistical method that tests the likelihood of species presence in relation to the time when a species was collected and a measure of annual collection effort, calculated in three ways based on specimen collection over time. The results suggest that as of 2000 up to nine of the 236 orchid species known from a single specimen may be inferred to be extinct under at least one of the three methods of estimating collection effort and extinction. In addition, up to two additional species are likely to be extinct by 2018 assuming no new collections were made by that time. Substantial collection effort and/or additional evidence will be needed to reach a decision on the persistence of more recently observed species known only from a single collection. This represents a challenge for conservation practitioners.

Complementarity, completeness and quality of long-term faunal archives in an Asian biodiversity hotspot

Long-term baselines on biodiversity change through time are crucial to inform conservation decision-making in biodiversity hotspots, but environmental archives remain unavailable for many regions. Extensive palaeontological, zooarchaeological and historical records and indigenous knowledge about past environmental conditions exist for China, a megadiverse country experiencing large-scale biodiversity loss, but their potential to understand past human-caused faunal turnover is not fully assessed. We investigate a series of complementary environmental archives to evaluate the quality of the Holocene-historical faunal record of Hainan Island, China's southernmost province, for establishing new baselines on postglacial mammalian diversity and extinction dynamics. Synthesis of multiple archives provides an integrated model of long-term biodiversity change, revealing that Hainan has experienced protracted and ongoing human-caused depletion of its mammal fauna from prehistory to the present, and that past baselines can inform practical conservation management. However, China's Holocene-historical archives exhibit substantial incompleteness and bias at regional and country-wide scales, with limited taxonomic representation especially for small-bodied species, and poor sampling of high-elevation landscapes facing current-day climate change risks. Establishing a clearer understanding of the quality of environmental archives in threatened ecoregions, and their ability to provide a meaningful understanding of the past, is needed to identify future conservation-relevant historical research priorities. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'

To name those lost: assessing extinction likelihood in the Australian vascular flora

Extinction is a profound biological event, yet despite its finality it can be difficult to verify and many frameworks have been proposed to define formally that extinction has occurred. For most taxonomic groups and regions there is no reliable list of species considered to be probably or possibly extinct. The record of plant extinctions in Australia is no exception, characterized by high turn-over within lists, low transparency of attribution and lack of consistency between jurisdictions. This makes it impossible to evaluate how many plant taxa have become extinct in Australia. We present an ecological framework for assessing the likelihood of plant extinctions, based on taxonomic soundness, degree of habitat modification, detectability and search effort, underpinned by the best available expert knowledge. We show that, in sharp contrast to both the fate of the Australian fauna and prevailing assumptions, only 12 of 71 plant taxa currently listed as or assumed to be extinct are considered probably extinct, and a further 21 possibly extinct. Twenty taxa listed as or assumed to be extinct have dubious taxonomy or occurrence in Australia, and the remaining 18 taxa are considered possibly extant and further surveys are required to ascertain their status. The list of probably and possibly extinct plants is dwarfed by the number thought extinct but rediscovered since 1980. Our method can be used for vascular floras in other regions characterized by well-documented and curated floras and high levels of expert knowledge, and provides a transparent platform for assessing changes in the status of biodiversity.

Taxonomy and conservation of grassland earless dragons: new species and an assessment of the first possible extinction of a reptile on mainland Australia

Taxonomic research is of fundamental importance in conservation management of threatened species, providing an understanding of species diversity on which management plans are based. The grassland earless dragon lizards (Agamidae: Tympanocryptis) of southeastern Australia have long been of conservation concern but there have been ongoing taxonomic uncertainties. We provide a comprehensive taxonomic review of this group, integrating multiple lines of evidence, including phylogeography (mtDNA), phylogenomics (SNPs), external morphology and micro X-ray CT scans. Based on these data we assign the lectotype of T. lineata to the Canberra region, restrict the distribution of T. pinguicolla to Victoria and name two new species: T. osbornei sp. nov. (Cooma) and T. mccartneyi sp. nov. (Bathurst). Our results have significant conservation implications. Of particular concern is T. pinguicolla, with the last confident sighting in 1969, raising the possibility of the first extinction of a reptile on mainland Australia. However, our results are equivocal as to whether T. pinguicolla is extant or extinct, emphasizing the immediate imperative for continued surveys to locate any remaining populations of T. pinguicolla. We also highlight the need for a full revision of conservation management plans for all the grassland earless dragons.

The Early Pliocene extinction of the mega-toothed shark Otodus megalodon: a view from the eastern North Pacific

The extinct giant shark Otodus megalodon is the last member of the predatory megatoothed lineage and is reported from Neogene sediments from nearly all continents. The timing of the extinction of Otodus megalodon is thought to be Pliocene, although reports of Pleistocene teeth fuel speculation that Otodus megalodon may still be extant. The longevity of the Otodus lineage (Paleocene to Pliocene) and its conspicuous absence in the modern fauna begs the question: when and why did this giant shark become extinct? Addressing this question requires a densely sampled marine vertebrate fossil record in concert with a robust geochronologic framework. Many historically important basins with stacked Otodus-bearing Neogene marine vertebrate fossil assemblages lack well-sampled and well-dated lower and upper Pliocene strata (e.g., Atlantic Coastal Plain). The fossil record of California, USA, and Baja California, Mexico, provides such an ideal sequence of assemblages preserved within well-dated lithostratigraphic sequences. This study reviews all records of Otodus megalodon from post-Messinian marine strata from western North America and evaluates their reliability. All post-Zanclean Otodus megalodon occurrences from the eastern North Pacific exhibit clear evidence of reworking or lack reliable provenance; the youngest reliable records of Otodus megalodon are early Pliocene, suggesting an extinction at the early-late Pliocene boundary (∼3.6 Ma), corresponding with youngest occurrences of Otodus megalodon in Japan, the North Atlantic, and Mediterranean. This study also reevaluates a published dataset, thoroughly vetting each occurrence and justifying the geochronologic age of each, as well as excluding several dubious records. Reanalysis of the dataset using optimal linear estimation resulted in a median extinction date of 3.51 Ma, somewhat older than a previously proposed Pliocene-Pleistocene extinction date (2.6 Ma). Post-middle Miocene oceanographic changes and cooling sea surface temperature may have resulted in range fragmentation, while alongside competition with the newly evolved great white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) during the Pliocene may have led to the demise of the megatoothed shark. Alternatively, these findings may also suggest a globally asynchronous extinction of Otodus megalodon.

Estimating the extinction date of the thylacine with mixed certainty data

The thylacine (Thylacinus cynocephalus), one of Australia's most characteristic megafauna, was the largest marsupial carnivore until hunting, and potentially disease, drove it to extinction in 1936. Although thylacines were restricted to Tasmania for 2 millennia prior to their extinction, recent so-called plausible sightings on the Cape York Peninsula in northern Queensland have emerged, leading some to speculate the species may have persisted undetected. We compiled a data set that included physical evidence, expert-validated sightings, and unconfirmed sightings up to the present day and implemented a range of extinction models (focusing on a Bayesian approach that incorporates all 3 types of data by modeling valid and invalid sightings as independent processes) to evaluate the likelihood of the thylacine's persistence. Although the last captive individual died in September 1936, our results suggested that the most likely extinction date would be 1940. Our other extinction models estimated the thylacine's extinction date between 1936 and 1943, and the most optimistic scenario indicated that the species did not persist beyond 1956. The search for the thylacine, much like similar efforts to rediscover other recently extinct charismatic taxa, is likely to be fruitless, especially given that persistence on Tasmania would have been no guarantee the species could reappear in regions that had been unoccupied for millennia. The search for the thylacine may become a rallying point for conservation and wildlife biology and could indirectly help fund and support critical research in understudied areas such as Cape York. However, our results suggest that attempts to rediscover the thylacine will be unsuccessful and that the continued survival of the thylacine is entirely implausible based on most current mathematical theories of extinction.

On the functional extinction of the Passenger Pigeon

The Passenger Pigeon (Ectopistes migratorius) was a social breeder, and it has been suggested that the species experienced functional extinction, defined as a total reproductive failure, prior to its actual extinction in the early years of the 20th century. We applied a novel randomization test based on the relative times of the most recent egg- and skin-specimen sightings (i.e., recorded date of specimen collection) to test for functional extinction. For a total of 6 eggs and 27 skins, the observed significance level was 0.38, which indicated that the species did not become functionally extinct. Thus, proposals to reverse its rapid decline in the late 19th century could have been successful.

Analyzing time-ordered event data with missed observations

A common problem with observational datasets is that not all events of interest may be detected. For example, observing animals in the wild can difficult when animals move, hide, or cannot be closely approached. We consider time series of events recorded in conditions where events are occasionally missed by observers or observational devices. These time series are not restricted to behavioral protocols, but can be any cyclic or recurring process where discrete outcomes are observed. Undetected events cause biased inferences on the process of interest, and statistical analyses are needed that can identify and correct the compromised detection processes. Missed observations in time series lead to observed time intervals between events at multiples of the true inter‐event time, which conveys information on their detection probability. We derive the theoretical probability density function for observed intervals between events that includes a probability of missed detection. Methodology and software tools are provided for analysis of event data with potential observation bias and its removal. The methodology was applied to simulation data and a case study of defecation rate estimation in geese, which is commonly used to estimate their digestive throughput and energetic uptake, or to calculate goose usage of a feeding site from dropping density. Simulations indicate that at a moderate chance to miss arrival events (p = 0.3), uncorrected arrival intervals were biased upward by up to a factor 3, while parameter values corrected for missed observations were within 1% of their true simulated value. A field case study shows that not accounting for missed observations leads to substantial underestimates of the true defecation rate in geese, and spurious rate differences between sites, which are introduced by differences in observational conditions. These results show that the derived methodology can be used to effectively remove observational biases in time‐ordered event data.

Informing decisions on an extremely data poor species facing imminent extinction

Some of the species that are believed to have the highest probability of extinction are also amongst the most poorly known, and this makes it extremely difficult to decide how to spend scarce resources. Assessments of conservation status made on the basis of loss or degradation of habitat and lack of records may provide compelling indications of a decline in geographical range and population size, but they do not help identify where conservation action might be best targeted. Methods for assessing the probability of extinction and for modelling species’ distributions exist, but their data requirements often exceed the information that is available for some of the most urgent conservation cases. Here we use all available information (localities, expert information, climate and landcover) about a high-priority Vietnamese bird species (Edwards's pheasant Lophura edwardsi) to assess objectively the probability of its persistence, and where surveys or other conservation action should be targeted. It is clear that the species is on the threshold of extinction and there is an urgent need to survey Bach Ma National Park (including the extension) and to consider surveying Ke Go Nature Reserve. This approach has potential to help identify where conservation action should be targeted for other Critically Endangered species for which there is an extreme scarcity of information.

Using Confidence Intervals to Quantify the Uncertainty in the End-Points of Stratigraphic Ranges

One of the many contributions paleontology makes to our understanding of the biosphere and its evolution is a direct temporal record of biotic events. However, assuming fossils have been correctly identified and accurately dated, stratigraphic ranges underestimate true temporal ranges: observed first occurrences are too young, and observed last occurrences are too old. Here I introduce the techniques developed for placing confidence intervals on the end-points of stratigraphic ranges. I begin with the analysis of single taxa in local sections – with the simplest of assumptions – random fossilization. This is followed by a discussion of the methods developed to handle the fact that the recovery of fossils is often non-random in space and time. After discussion of how confidence intervals can be used to test for simultaneous origination and extinctions, I conclude with an example application of confidence intervals to unravel the relative importance of background extinction, environmental change and mass extinction of ammonite species at the end of the Cretaceous in western Tethys.

Estimating times of extinction in the fossil record

Because the fossil record is incomplete, the last fossil of a taxon is a biased estimate of its true time of extinction. Numerous methods have been developed in the palaeontology literature for estimating the true time of extinction using ages of fossil specimens. These methods, which typically give a confidence interval for estimating the true time of extinction, differ in the assumptions they make and the nature and amount of data they require. We review the literature on such methods and make some recommendations for future directions.

Inferring extinction in North American and Hawaiian birds in the presence of sighting uncertainty

For most species the timing of extinction events is uncertain, occurring sometime after the last sighting. However, the sightings themselves may also be uncertain. Recently a number of methods have been developed that incorporate sighting uncertainty in the inference of extinction based on a series of sightings. Here we estimate the timing of extinction for 41 of 52 North American and Hawaiian bird taxa and populations, the results of which suggest all became extinct before 2009. By acknowledging sighting uncertainty it results in two opposite effects, one pushing the timing of extinction away from the last sighting and the other drawing the timing of extinction nearer to it. However, for 14 assessed taxa and populations the upper 95% bounds lie beyond the end of the observation period and therefore suggest the possibility of continued persistence. This has important implications for conservation decision-makers and potentially reduces the likelihood of Romeo’s Error.

On the prior distribution of extinction time

Bayesian inference about the extinction of a species based on a record of its sightings requires the specification of a prior distribution for extinction time. Here, I critically review some specifications in the context of a specific model of the sighting record. The practical implication of the choice of prior distribution is illustrated through an application to the sighting record of the Caribbean monk seal.

Assessing uncertainty in sighting records: an example of the Barbary lion

As species become rare and approach extinction, purported sightings can be controversial, especially when scarce management resources are at stake. We consider the probability that each individual sighting of a series is valid. Obtaining these probabilities requires a strict framework to ensure that they are as accurately representative as possible. We used a process, which has proven to provide accurate estimates from a group of experts, to obtain probabilities for the validation of 32 sightings of the Barbary lion. We consider the scenario where experts are simply asked whether a sighting was valid, as well as asking them to score the sighting based on distinguishablity, observer competence, and verifiability. We find that asking experts to provide scores for these three aspects resulted in each sighting being considered more individually, meaning that this new questioning method provides very different estimated probabilities that a sighting is valid, which greatly affects the outcome from an extinction model. We consider linear opinion pooling and logarithm opinion pooling to combine the three scores, and also to combine opinions on each sighting. We find the two methods produce similar outcomes, allowing the user to focus on chosen features of each method, such as satisfying the marginalisation property or being externally Bayesian.

Interview-based sighting histories can inform regional conservation prioritization for highly threatened cryptic species

The use of robust ecological data to make evidence-based management decisions is frequently prevented by limited data quantity or quality, and local ecological knowledge (LEK) is increasingly seen as an important source of information for conservation. However, there has been little assessment of LEK's usefulness for informing prioritization and management of landscapes for threatened species, or assessing comparative species status across landscapes.

A large-scale interview survey in the Annamite Mountains (Vietnam and Lao PDR) compiled the first systematic LEK data set for saola Pseudoryx nghetinhensis, one of the world's rarest mammals, and eight other ungulates. Saola conservation is hindered by uncertainty over continued presence across much of its proposed distribution. We analysed comparative LEK-based last-sighting data across three landscapes to determine whether regional sighting histories support previous suggestions of landscape importance for saola conservation (Hue-Quang Nam: top-priority Vietnamese landscape; Pu Mat: lower priority Vietnamese landscape; Viengthong: high-priority Lao landscape) and whether they constitute an effective spatial prioritization tool for cryptic species management.

Wild pig and red muntjac may be the only Annamite ungulates with stable populations; the regional status of all other species appears to be worse. Saola have declined more severely and/or are significantly rarer than most other ungulates and have been seen by relatively few respondents. Saola were also frequently considered locally rarest or declining, and never as species that had not declined.

In contrast to other species, there are no regional differences in saola sighting histories, with continued persistence in all landscapes challenging suggestions that regional status differs greatly. Remnant populations persist in Vietnam despite heavy hunting, but even remote landscapes in Lao may be under intense pressure.

Synthesis and applications. Our local ecological knowledge data suggest that intact saola populations probably no longer exist, but individuals persist in all three landscapes, making management activities to reduce hunting pressure on ungulates in each landscape a conservation priority. Analysis of last-sighting histories can constitute an important conservation tool when robust data are otherwise unavailable, and collection of last-sighting records should be incorporated more widely into field studies and management of other highly threatened, cryptic species.

Our local ecological knowledge data suggest that intact saola populations probably no longer exist, but individuals persist in all three landscapes, making management activities to reduce hunting pressure on ungulates in each landscape a conservation priority. Analysis of last-sighting histories can constitute an important conservation tool when robust data are otherwise unavailable, and collection of last-sighting records should be incorporated more widely into field studies and management of other highly threatened, cryptic species.

When did Carcharocles megalodon become extinct? A new analysis of the fossil record

Carcharocles megalodon (“Megalodon”) is the largest shark that ever lived. Based on its distribution, dental morphology, and associated fauna, it has been suggested that this species was a cosmopolitan apex predator that fed on marine mammals from the middle Miocene to the Pliocene (15.9–2.6 Ma). Prevailing theory suggests that the extinction of apex predators affects ecosystem dynamics. Accordingly, knowing the time of extinction of C. megalodon is a fundamental step towards understanding the effects of such an event in ancient communities. However, the time of extinction of this important species has never been quantitatively assessed. Here, we synthesize the most recent records of C. megalodon from the literature and scientific collections and infer the date of its extinction by making a novel use of the Optimal Linear Estimation (OLE) model. Our results suggest that C. megalodon went extinct around 2.6 Ma. Furthermore, when contrasting our results with known ecological and macroevolutionary trends in marine mammals, it became evident that the modern composition and function of modern gigantic filter-feeding whales was established after the extinction of C. megalodon. Consequently, the study of the time of extinction of C. megalodon provides the basis to improve our understanding of the responses of marine species to the removal of apex predators, presenting a deep-time perspective for the conservation of modern ecosystems.

Estimating how many undescribed species have gone extinct

Because both descriptions of species and modern human-driven extinctions started around the same time (i.e., eighteenth century), a logical expectation is that a large proportion of species may have gone extinct without ever having been recorded. Despite this evident and widely recognized assumption, the loss of undescribed species has never been estimated. We quantified this loss for several taxonomic groups and regions for which undescribed species extinctions are likely to have occurred. Across a wide range of taxonomic groups, we applied known extinction rates computed from recorded species losses to assumed exponential decay in the proportion of species remaining undiscovered. Because all previous modeling attempts to project total species richness implicitly assumed that undescribed species extinctions could be neglected, we also evaluated the effect of neglecting them. Finally, because we assumed constant description and extinction probabilities, we applied our model to simulated data that did not conform to this assumption. Actual species losses were severely underestimated by considering only known species extinctions. According to our estimates, the proportion of undiscovered extinct species over all extinctions ranged from 0.15 to 0.59, depending on the taxonomic group and the region considered. This means that recent extinctions may be up to twice as large as the number recorded. When species differed in their extinction or description probabilities, our model underestimated extinctions of undescribed species by up to 20%.

Two hundred years of local avian extinctions in eastern Amazonia

Local, regional, and global extinctions caused by habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation have been widely reported for the tropics. The patterns and drivers of this loss of species are now increasingly well known in Amazonia, but there remains a significant gap in understanding of long-term trends in species persistence and extinction in anthropogenic landscapes. Such a historical perspective is critical for understanding the status and trends of extant biodiversity as well as for identifying priorities to halt further losses. Using extensive historical data sets of specimen records and results of contemporary surveys, we searched for evidence of local extinctions of a terra firma rainforest avifauna over 200 years in a 2500 km(2) eastern Amazonian region around the Brazilian city of Belém. This region has the longest history of ornithological fieldwork in the entire Amazon basin and lies in the highly threatened Belém Centre of Endemism. We also compared our historically inferred extinction events with extensive data on species occurrences in a sample of catchments in a nearby municipality (Paragominas) that encompass a gradient of past forest loss. We found evidence for the possible extinction of 47 species (14% of the regional species pool) that were unreported from 1980 to 2013 (80% last recorded between 1900 and 1980). Seventeen species appear on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, and many of these are large-bodied. The species lost from the region immediately around Belém are similar to those which are currently restricted to well-forested catchments in Paragominas. Although we anticipate the future rediscovery or recolonization of some species inferred to be extinct by our calculations, we also expect that there are likely to be additional local extinctions, not reported here, given the ongoing loss and degradation of remaining areas of native vegetation across eastern Amazonia.

Effects of recent environmental change on accuracy of inferences of extinction status

Correctly classifying a species as extinct or extant is of critical importance if current rates of biodiversity loss are to be accurately quantified. Observing an extinction event is rare, so in many cases extinction status is inferred using methods based on the analysis of records of historic sighting events. The accuracy of such methods is difficult to test. However, results of recent experiments with microcosm communities suggest that the rate at which a population declines to extinction, potentially driven by varying environmental conditions, may alter one's ability accurately to infer extinction status. We tested how the rate of population decline, driven by historic environmental change, alters the accuracy of 6 commonly applied sighting-based methods used to infer extinction. We used data from small-scale experimental communities and recorded wild population extirpations. We assessed how accuracy of the different methods was affected by rate of population decline, search effort, and number of sighting events recorded. Rate of population decline and historic population size of the species affected the accuracy of inferred extinction dates; however, faster declines produced more accurate inferred dates of extinction, but only when population sizes were higher. Optimal linear estimation (OLE) offered the most reliable and robust estimates, though no single method performed best in all situations, and it may be appropriate to use a different method if information regarding historic search efforts is available. OLE provided the most accurate estimates of extinction when the number of sighting events used was >10, and future use of this method should take this into account. Data from experimental populations provide added insight into testing techniques to discern wild extirpation events. Care should be taken designing such experiments so that they mirror closely the abundance dynamics of populations affected by real-world extirpation events.

Quantifying extinction probabilities from sighting records: inference and uncertainties

Methods are needed to estimate the probability that a population is extinct, whether to underpin decisions regarding the continuation of a invasive species eradication program, or to decide whether further searches for a rare and endangered species could be warranted. Current models for inferring extinction probability based on sighting data typically assume a constant or declining sighting rate. We develop methods to analyse these models in a Bayesian framework to estimate detection and survival probabilities of a population conditional on sighting data. We note, however, that the assumption of a constant or declining sighting rate may be hard to justify, especially for incursions of invasive species with potentially positive population growth rates. We therefore explored introducing additional process complexity via density-dependent survival and detection probabilities, with population density no longer constrained to be constant or decreasing. These models were applied to sparse carcass discoveries associated with the recent incursion of the European red fox (Vulpes vulpes) into Tasmania, Australia. While a simple model provided apparently precise estimates of parameters and extinction probability, estimates arising from the more complex model were much more uncertain, with the sparse data unable to clearly resolve the underlying population processes. The outcome of this analysis was a much higher possibility of population persistence. We conclude that if it is safe to assume detection and survival parameters are constant, then existing models can be readily applied to sighting data to estimate extinction probability. If not, methods reliant on these simple assumptions are likely overstating their accuracy, and their use to underpin decision-making potentially fraught. Instead, researchers will need to more carefully specify priors about possible population processes.

The population decline and extinction of Darwin's frogs

Darwin's frogs (Rhinoderma darwinii and R. rufum) are two species of mouth-brooding frogs from Chile and Argentina. Here, we present evidence on the extent of declines, current distribution and conservation status of Rhinoderma spp.; including information on abundance, habitat and threats to extant Darwin's frog populations. All known archived Rhinoderma specimens were examined in museums in North America, Europe and South America. Extensive surveys were carried out throughout the historical ranges of R. rufum and R. darwinii from 2008 to 2012. Literature review and location data of 2,244 archived specimens were used to develop historical distribution maps for Rhinoderma spp. Based on records of sightings, optimal linear estimation was used to estimate whether R. rufum can be considered extinct. No extant R. rufum was found and our modelling inferred that this species became extinct in 1982 (95% CI, 1980-2000). Rhinoderma darwinii was found in 36 sites. All populations were within native forest and abundance was highest in Chiloé Island, when compared with Coast, Andes and South populations. Estimated population size and density (five populations) averaged 33.2 frogs/population (range, 10.2-56.3) and 14.9 frogs/100 m(2) (range, 5.3-74.1), respectively. Our results provide further evidence that R. rufum is extinct and indicate that R. darwinii has declined to a much greater degree than previously recognised. Although this species can still be found across a large part of its historical range, remaining populations are small and severely fragmented. Conservation efforts for R. darwinii should be stepped up and the species re-classified as Endangered.

Scientific foundations for an IUCN Red List of ecosystems

An understanding of risks to biodiversity is needed for planning action to slow current rates of decline and secure ecosystem services for future human use. Although the IUCN Red List criteria provide an effective assessment protocol for species, a standard global assessment of risks to higher levels of biodiversity is currently limited. In 2008, IUCN initiated development of risk assessment criteria to support a global Red List of ecosystems. We present a new conceptual model for ecosystem risk assessment founded on a synthesis of relevant ecological theories. To support the model, we review key elements of ecosystem definition and introduce the concept of ecosystem collapse, an analogue of species extinction. The model identifies four distributional and functional symptoms of ecosystem risk as a basis for assessment criteria: A) rates of decline in ecosystem distribution; B) restricted distributions with continuing declines or threats; C) rates of environmental (abiotic) degradation; and D) rates of disruption to biotic processes. A fifth criterion, E) quantitative estimates of the risk of ecosystem collapse, enables integrated assessment of multiple processes and provides a conceptual anchor for the other criteria. We present the theoretical rationale for the construction and interpretation of each criterion. The assessment protocol and threat categories mirror those of the IUCN Red List of species. A trial of the protocol on terrestrial, subterranean, freshwater and marine ecosystems from around the world shows that its concepts are workable and its outcomes are robust, that required data are available, and that results are consistent with assessments carried out by local experts and authorities. The new protocol provides a consistent, practical and theoretically grounded framework for establishing a systematic Red List of the world's ecosystems. This will complement the Red List of species and strengthen global capacity to report on and monitor the status of biodiversity.

Examining the extinction of the Barbary lion and its implications for felid conservation

Estimations of species extinction dates are rarely definitive, yet declarations of extinction or extirpation are important as they define when conservation efforts may cease. Erroneous declarations of extinctions not only destabilize conservation efforts but also corrode local community support. Mismatches in perceptions by the scientific and local communities risk undermining sensitive, but important partnerships. We examine observations relating to the decline and extinction of Barbary lions in North Africa. Whilst the extinction predates the era of the scientific conservation movement, the decline is relatively well documented in historical records. Recently unearthed accounts suggest Barbary lions survived later than previously assumed. We use probabilistic methods to estimate a more recent extinction date for the subspecies. The evidence presented for a much later persistence of lions in North Africa, including generations when sightings were nil, suggests caution when considering felid populations as extinct in the wild. The case raises the possibility that captive animals descended from the Moroccan royal collection are closer contemporaries to wild Barbary lions. Furthermore, our results highlight the vulnerability of very small lion populations and the significance of continued conservation of remnant lion populations in Central and West Africa.

Long-term data for endemic frog genera reveal potential conservation crisis in the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia

Populations of many frogs have declined alarmingly in recent years, placing nearly one third of the > 6,000 species under threat of extinction. Declines have been attributed largely to habitat loss, environmental degradation and/or infectious diseases such as chytridiomycosis. Many frogs undergo dramatic natural population fluctuations such that long-term data are required to determine population trends without undue influence of stochastic factors. We present long-term quantitative data (individuals encountered per person hour of searching) for four monotypic frog genera endemic to an Afromontane region of exceptional importance but growing conservation concern: one endemic to the Ethiopian highlands (Spinophrynoides osgoodi) and three endemic to the Bale Mountains (Altiphrynoides malcolmi, Balebreviceps hillmani, Ericabatrachus baleensis), collected during 15 field trips to the Bale Mountains between 1971 and 2009. Only a single confirmed sighting of S. osgoodi has been made since 1995. The other three species have also declined, at least locally. E. baleensis appears to have been extirpated at its type locality and at the same site B. hillmani has declined. These declines are in association with substantial habitat degradation caused by a growing human population. Chytrid fungus has been found on several frog species in Bale, although no dead or moribund frogs have been encountered. These results expose an urgent need for more amphibian surveys in the Bale Mountains. Additionally, we argue that detrimental human exploitation must be halted immediately in at least some parts of the Harenna Forest if a conservation crisis is to be averted.

River dolphins can act as population trend indicators in degraded freshwater systems

Conservation attention on charismatic large vertebrates such as dolphins is often supported by the suggestion that these species represent surrogates for wider biodiversity, or act as indicators of ecosystem health. However, their capacity to act as indicators of patterns or trends in regional biodiversity has rarely been tested. An extensive new dataset of >300 last-sighting records for the Yangtze River dolphin or baiji and two formerly economically important fishes, the Yangtze paddlefish and Reeves’ shad, all of which are probably now extinct in the Yangtze, was collected during an interview survey of fishing communities across the middle-lower Yangtze drainage. Untransformed last-sighting date frequency distributions for these species show similar decline curves over time, and the linear gradients of transformed last-sighting date series are not significantly different from each other, demonstrating that these species experienced correlated population declines in both timing and rate of decline. Whereas species may be expected to respond differently at the population level even in highly degraded ecosystems, highly vulnerable (e.g. migratory) species can therefore display very similar responses to extrinsic threats, even if they represent otherwise very different taxonomic, biological and ecological groupings. Monitoring the status of river dolphins or other megafauna therefore has the potential to provide wider information on the status of other threatened components of sympatric freshwater biotas, and so represents a potentially important monitoring tool for conservation management. We also show that interview surveys can provide robust quantitative data on relative population dynamics of different species.

Uncertain sightings and the extinction of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker

The extinction of a species can be inferred from a record of its sightings. Existing methods for doing so assume that all sightings in the record are valid. Often, however, there are sightings of uncertain validity. To date, uncertain sightings have been treated in an ad hoc way, either excluding them from the record or including them as if they were certain. We developed a Bayesian method that formally accounts for such uncertain sightings. The method assumes that valid and invalid sightings follow independent Poisson processes and use noninformative prior distributions for the rate of valid sightings and for a measure of the quality of uncertain sightings. We applied the method to a recently published record of sightings of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis). This record covers the period 1897-2010 and contains 39 sightings classified as certain and 29 classified as uncertain. The Bayes factor in favor of extinction was 4.03, which constitutes substantial support for extinction. The posterior distribution of the time of extinction has 3 main modes in 1944, 1952, and 1988. The method can be applied to sighting records of other purportedly extinct species.

Specimen-based modeling, stopping rules, and the extinction of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker

Assessing species survival status is an essential component of conservation programs. We devised a new statistical method for estimating the probability of species persistence from the temporal sequence of collection dates of museum specimens. To complement this approach, we developed quantitative stopping rules for terminating the search for missing or allegedly extinct species. These stopping rules are based on survey data for counts of co-occurring species that are encountered in the search for a target species. We illustrate both these methods with a case study of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis), long assumed to have become extinct in the United States in the 1950s, but reportedly rediscovered in 2004. We analyzed the temporal pattern of the collection dates of 239 geo-referenced museum specimens collected throughout the southeastern United States from 1853 to 1932 and estimated the probability of persistence in 2011 as <6.4 × 10(-5) , with a probable extinction date no later than 1980. From an analysis of avian census data (counts of individuals) at 4 sites where searches for the woodpecker were conducted since 2004, we estimated that at most 1-3 undetected species may remain in 3 sites (one each in Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida). At a fourth site on the Congaree River (South Carolina), no singletons (species represented by one observation) remained after 15,500 counts of individual birds, indicating that the number of species already recorded (56) is unlikely to increase with additional survey effort. Collectively, these results suggest there is virtually no chance the Ivory-billed Woodpecker is currently extant within its historical range in the southeastern United States. The results also suggest conservation resources devoted to its rediscovery and recovery could be better allocated to other species. The methods we describe for estimating species extinction dates and the probability of persistence are generally applicable to other species for which sufficient museum collections and field census results are available.

Inferring extinction of mammals from sighting records, threats, and biological traits

For species with five or more sightings, quantitative techniques exist to test whether a species is extinct on the basis of distribution of sightings. However, 70% of purportedly extinct mammals are known from fewer than five sightings, and such models do not include some important indicators of the likelihood of extinction such as threats, biological traits, search effort, and demography. Previously, we developed a quantitative method that we based on species' traits in which we used Cox proportional hazards regression to calculate the probability of rediscovery of species regarded as extinct. Here, we used two versions of the Cox regression model to determine the probability of extinction in purportedly extinct mammals and compared the results of these two models with those of stationary Poisson, nonparametric, and Weibull sighting-distribution models. For mammals with five or more sightings, the stationary Poisson model categorized all but two critically endangered (flagged as possibly extinct) species in our data set as extinct, and results with this model were consistent with current categories of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. The scores of probability of rediscovery for individual species in one version of our Cox regression model were correlated with scores assigned by the stationary Poisson model. Thus, we used this Cox regression model to determine the probability of extinction of mammals with sparse records. On the basis of the Cox regression model, the most likely mammals to be rediscovered were the Montane monkey-faced bat (Pteralopex pulchra), Armenian myotis (Myotis hajastanicus), Alcorn's pocket gopher (Pappogeomys alcorni), and Wimmer's shrew (Crocidura wimmeri). The Cox model categorized two species that have recently disappeared as extinct: the baiji (Lipotes vexillifer) and the Christmas Island pipistrelle (Pipistrellus murrayi). Our new method can be used to test whether species with few records or recent last-sighting dates are likely to be extinct.