A framework for evaluating the impact of the IUCN Red List of threatened species

Roles of the Red List of Ecosystems in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity set the agenda for global aspirations and action to reverse biodiversity loss. The GBF includes an explicit goal for maintaining and restoring biodiversity, encompassing ecosystems, species and genetic diversity (goal A), targets for ecosystem protection and restoration and headline indicators to track progress and guide action1. One of the headline indicators is the Red List of Ecosystems2, the global standard for ecosystem risk assessment. The Red List of Ecosystems provides a systematic framework for collating, analysing and synthesizing data on ecosystems, including their distribution, integrity and risk of collapse3. Here, we examine how it can contribute to implementing the GBF, as well as monitoring progress. We find that the Red List of Ecosystems provides common theory and practical data, while fostering collaboration, cross-sector cooperation and knowledge sharing, with important roles in 16 of the 23 targets. In particular, ecosystem maps, descriptions and risk categories are key to spatial planning for halting loss, restoration and protection (targets 1, 2 and 3). The Red List of Ecosystems is therefore well-placed to aid Parties to the GBF as they assess, plan and act to achieve the targets and goals. We outline future work to further strengthen this potential and improve biodiversity outcomes, including expanding spatial coverage of Red List of Ecosystems assessments and partnerships between practitioners, policy-makers and scientists.

Using the IUCN Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa to inform decision-making

The Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT) is an important tool for biological invasion policy and management and has been adopted as an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) standard to measure the severity of environmental impacts caused by organisms living outside their native ranges. EICAT has already been incorporated into some national and local decision-making procedures, making it a particularly relevant resource for addressing the impact of non-native species. Recently, some of the underlying conceptual principles of EICAT, particularly those related to the use of the precautionary approach, have been challenged. Although still relatively new, guidelines for the application and interpretation of EICAT will be periodically revisited by the IUCN community, based on scientific evidence, to improve the process. Some of the criticisms recently raised are based on subjectively selected assumptions that cannot be generalized and may harm global efforts to manage biological invasions. EICAT adopts a precautionary principle by considering a species' impact history elsewhere because some taxa have traits that can make them inherently more harmful. Furthermore, non-native species are often important drivers of biodiversity loss even in the presence of other pressures. Ignoring the precautionary principle when tackling the impacts of non-native species has led to devastating consequences for human well-being, biodiversity, and ecosystems, as well as poor management outcomes, and thus to significant economic costs. EICAT is a relevant tool because it supports prioritization and management of non-native species and meeting and monitoring progress toward the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) Target 6.

Extinction risk predictions for the world's flowering plants to support their conservation

More than 70% of all vascular plants lack conservation status assessments. We aimed to address this shortfall in knowledge of species extinction risk by using the World Checklist of Vascular Plants to generate the first comprehensive set of predictions for a large clade: angiosperms (flowering plants, c. 330 000 species). We used Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) to predict the extinction risk of all angiosperms using predictors relating to range size, human footprint, climate, and evolutionary history and applied a novel approach to estimate uncertainty of individual species-level predictions. From our model predictions, we estimate 45.1% of angiosperm species are potentially threatened with a lower bound of 44.5% and upper bound of 45.7%. Our species-level predictions, with associated uncertainty estimates, do not replace full global, or regional Red List assessments, but can be used to prioritise predicted threatened species for full Red List assessment and fast-track predicted non-threatened species for Least Concern assessments. Our predictions and uncertainty estimates can also guide fieldwork, inform systematic conservation planning and support global plant conservation efforts and targets.

Modelling the probability of meeting IUCN Red List criteria to support reassessments

Comparative extinction risk analysis-which predicts species extinction risk from correlation with traits or geographical characteristics-has gained research attention as a promising tool to support extinction risk assessment in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. However, its uptake has been very limited so far, possibly because existing models only predict a species' Red List category, without indicating which Red List criteria may be triggered. This prevents such approaches to be integrated into Red List assessments. We overcome this implementation gap by developing models that predict the probability of species meeting individual Red List criteria. Using data on the world's birds, we evaluated the predictive performance of our criterion-specific models and compared it with the typical criterion-blind modelling approach. We compiled data on biological traits (e.g. range size, clutch size) and external drivers (e.g. change in canopy cover) often associated with extinction risk. For each specific criterion, we modelled the relationship between extinction risk predictors and species' Red List category under that criterion using ordinal regression models. We found criterion-specific models were better at identifying threatened species compared to a criterion-blind model (higher sensitivity), but less good at identifying not threatened species (lower specificity). As expected, different covariates were important for predicting extinction risk under different criteria. Change in annual temperature was important for criteria related to population trends, while high forest dependency was important for criteria related to restricted area of occupancy or small population size. Our criteria-specific method can support Red List assessors by producing outputs that identify species likely to meet specific criteria, and which are the most important predictors. These species can then be prioritised for re-evaluation. We expect this new approach to increase the uptake of extinction risk models in Red List assessments, bridging a long-standing research-implementation gap.

A standard approach for including climate change responses in IUCN Red List assessments

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is a central tool for extinction risk monitoring and influences global biodiversity policy and action. But, to be effective, it is crucial that it consistently accounts for each driver of extinction. Climate change is rapidly becoming a key extinction driver, but consideration of climate change information remains challenging for the IUCN. Several methods can be used to predict species' future decline, but they often fail to provide estimates of the symptoms of endangerment used by IUCN. We devised a standardized method to measure climate change impact in terms of change in habitat quality to inform criterion A3 on future population reduction. Using terrestrial nonvolant tetrapods as a case study, we measured this impact as the difference between the current and the future species climatic niche, defined based on current and future bioclimatic variables under alternative model algorithms, dispersal scenarios, emission scenarios, and climate models. Our models identified 171 species (13% out of those analyzed) for which their current red-list category could worsen under criterion A3 if they cannot disperse beyond their current range in the future. Categories for 14 species (1.5%) could worsen if maximum dispersal is possible. Although ours is a simulation exercise and not a formal red-list assessment, our results suggest that considering climate change impacts may reduce misclassification and strengthen consistency and comprehensiveness of IUCN Red List assessments.

Identification of Potential miRNA-mRNA Regulatory Network Associated with Growth and Development of Hair Follicles in Forest Musk Deer

In this study, sRNA libraries and mRNA libraries of HFs of FMD were constructed and sequenced using an Illumina HiSeq 2500, and the expression profiles of miRNAs and genes in the HFs of FMD were obtained at the anagen and catagen stages. In total, 565 differentially expressed unigenes (DEGs) were identified, 90 of which were upregulated and 475 of which were downregulated. In the BP category of GO enrichment, the DEGs were enriched in the processes related to HF development and differentiation, including the hair cycle regulation and processes, HF development, skin epidermis development, regulation of HF development, skin development, the Wnt signaling pathway, and the BMP signaling pathway. Through KEGG analysis it was found that DEGs were significantly enriched in pathways associated with HF development and growth. A total of 186 differentially expressed miRNAs (DEmiRNAs) were screened (p < 0.05) in the HFs of FMD at the anagen stage vs. the catagen stage, 33 of which were upregulated and 153 of which were downregulated. Through DEmiRNA-mRNA association analysis, we found DEmiRNAs and target genes that mainly play regulatory roles in HF development and growth. The enrichment analysis of DEmiRNA target genes revealed similarities with the enrichment results of DEGs associated with HF development. Notably, both sets of genes were enriched in key pathways such as the Notch signaling pathway, melanogenesis, the cAMP signaling pathway, and cGMP-PKG. To validate our findings, we selected 11 DEGs and 11 DEmiRNAs for experimental verification using RT-qPCR. The results of the experimental validation were consistent with the RNA-Seq results.

The natural virome and pandemic potential: Disease X

Over the last decade, the emergence of several zoonotic viruses has demonstrated that previously unknown or neglected pathogens have the potential to cause epidemics and therefore to pose a threat to global public health. Even more concerning are the estimated 1.7 million still-undiscovered viruses present in the natural environment or 'global virome', with many of these as-yet uncharacterized viruses predicted to be pathogenic for humans. Thus, in order to mitigate disease emergence and prevent future pandemics, it is crucial to identify the global extent of viral threats to which humans may become exposed. This requires cataloguing the viruses that exist in the environment within their various and diverse host species, and also understanding the viral, host, and environmental factors that dictate the circumstances that result in viral spillover into humans. We also address here which strategies can be implemented as countermeasure initiatives to reduce the risk of emergence of new diseases.

Prioritizing the reassessment of data-deficient species on the IUCN Red List

Despite being central to the implementation of conservation policies, the usefulness of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species is hampered by the 14% of species classified as data-deficient (DD) because information to evaluate these species' extinction risk was lacking when they were last assessed or because assessors did not appropriately account for uncertainty. Robust methods are needed to identify which DD species are more likely to be reclassified in one of the data-sufficient IUCN Red List categories. We devised a reproducible method to help red-list assessors prioritize reassessment of DD species and tested it with 6887 DD species of mammals, reptiles, amphibians, fishes, and Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies). For each DD species in these groups, we calculated its probability of being classified in a data-sufficient category if reassessed today from covariates measuring available knowledge (e.g., number of occurrence records or published articles available), knowledge proxies (e.g., remoteness of the range), and species characteristics (e.g., nocturnality); calculated change in such probability since last assessment from the increase in available knowledge (e.g., new occurrence records); and determined whether the species might qualify as threatened based on recent rate of habitat loss determined from global land-cover maps. We identified 1907 species with a probability of being reassessed in a data-sufficient category of >0.5; 624 species for which this probability increased by >0.25 since last assessment; and 77 species that could be reassessed as near threatened or threatened based on habitat loss. Combining these 3 elements, our results provided a list of species likely to be data-sufficient such that the comprehensiveness and representativeness of the IUCN Red List can be improved.

Combining camera trap surveys and IUCN range maps to improve knowledge of species distributions

Reliable maps of species distributions are fundamental for biodiversity research and conservation. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) range maps are widely recognized as authoritative representations of species' geographic limits, yet they might not always align with actual occurrence data. In recent area of habitat (AOH) maps, areas that are not habitat have been removed from IUCN ranges to reduce commission errors, but their concordance with actual species occurrence also remains untested. We tested concordance between occurrences recorded in camera trap surveys and predicted occurrences from the IUCN and AOH maps for 510 medium- to large-bodied mammalian species in 80 camera trap sampling areas. Across all areas, cameras detected only 39% of species expected to occur based on IUCN ranges and AOH maps; 85% of the IUCN only mismatches occurred within 200 km of range edges. Only 4% of species occurrences were detected by cameras outside IUCN ranges. The probability of mismatches between cameras and the IUCN range was significantly higher for smaller-bodied mammals and habitat specialists in the Neotropics and Indomalaya and in areas with shorter canopy forests. Our findings suggest that range and AOH maps rarely underrepresent areas where species occur, but they may more often overrepresent ranges by including areas where a species may be absent, particularly at range edges. We suggest that combining range maps with data from ground-based biodiversity sensors, such as camera traps, provides a richer knowledge base for conservation mapping and planning.

Red-list status and extinction risk of the world's whales, dolphins, and porpoises

To understand the scope and scale of the loss of biodiversity, tools are required that can be applied in a standardized manner to all species globally, spanning realms from land to the open ocean. We used data from the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List to provide a synthesis of the conservation status and extinction risk of cetaceans. One in 4 cetacean species (26% of 92 species) was threatened with extinction (i.e., critically endangered, endangered, or vulnerable) and 11% were near threatened. Ten percent of cetacean species were data deficient, and we predicted that 2-3 of these species may also be threatened. The proportion of threatened cetaceans has increased: 15% in 1991, 19% in 2008, and 26% in 2021. The assessed conservation status of 20% of species has worsened from 2008 to 2021, and only 3 moved into categories of lesser threat. Cetacean species with small geographic ranges were more likely to be listed as threatened than those with large ranges, and those that occur in freshwater (100% of species) and coastal (60% of species) habitats were under the greatest threat. Analysis of odontocete species distributions revealed a global hotspot of threatened small cetaceans in Southeast Asia, in an area encompassing the Coral Triangle and extending through nearshore waters of the Bay of Bengal, northern Australia, and Papua New Guinea and into the coastal waters of China. Improved management of fisheries to limit overfishing and reduce bycatch is urgently needed to avoid extinctions or further declines, especially in coastal areas of Asia, Africa, and South America.

More losers than winners: investigating Anthropocene defaunation through the diversity of population trends

The global-scale decline of animal biodiversity ('defaunation') represents one of the most alarming consequences of human impacts on the planet. The quantification of this extinction crisis has traditionally relied on the use of IUCN Red List conservation categories assigned to each assessed species. This approach reveals that a quarter of the world's animal species are currently threatened with extinction, and ~1% have been declared extinct. However, extinctions are preceded by progressive population declines through time that leave demographic 'footprints' that can alert us about the trajectories of species towards extinction. Therefore, an exclusive focus on IUCN conservation categories, without consideration of dynamic population trends, may underestimate the true extent of the processes of ongoing extinctions across nature. In fact, emerging evidence (e.g. the Living Planet Report), reveals a widespread tendency for sustained demographic declines (an average 69% decline in population abundances) of species globally. Yet, animal species are not only declining. Many species worldwide exhibit stable populations, while others are even thriving. Here, using population trend data for >71,000 animal species spanning all five groups of vertebrates (mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fishes) and insects, we provide a comprehensive global-scale assessment of the diversity of population trends across species undergoing not only declines, but also population stability and increases. We show a widespread global erosion of species, with 48% undergoing declines, while 49% and 3% of species currently remain stable or are increasing, respectively. Geographically, we reveal an intriguing pattern similar to that of threatened species, whereby declines tend to concentrate around tropical regions, whereas stability and increases show a tendency to expand towards temperate climates. Importantly, we find that for species currently classed by the IUCN Red List as 'non-threatened', 33% are declining. Critically, in contrast with previous mass extinction events, our assessment shows that the Anthropocene extinction crisis is undergoing a rapid biodiversity imbalance, with levels of declines (a symptom of extinction) greatly exceeding levels of increases (a symptom of ecological expansion and potentially of evolution) for all groups. Our study contributes a further signal indicating that global biodiversity is entering a mass extinction, with ecosystem heterogeneity and functioning, biodiversity persistence, and human well-being under increasing threat.

Botanical Collection Patterns and Conservation Categories of the Most Traded Timber Species from the Ecuadorian Amazon: The Role of Protected Areas

The Ecuadorian Amazon is home to a rich biodiversity of woody plant species. Nonetheless, their conservation remains difficult, as some areas remain poorly explored and lack georeferenced records. Therefore, the current study aims predominantly to analyze the collection patterns of timber species in the Amazon lowlands of Ecuador and to evaluate the conservation coverage of these species in protected areas. Furthermore, we try to determine the conservation category of the species according to the criteria of the IUCN Red List. We identified that one third of the timber species in the study area was concentrated in three provinces due to historical botanical expeditions. However, a worrying 22.0% of the species had less than five records of presence, and 29.9% had less than ten records, indicating a possible underestimation of their presence. In addition, almost half of the species evaluated were unprotected, exposing them to deforestation risks and threats. To improve knowledge and conservation of forest biodiversity in the Ecuadorian Amazon, it is recommended to perform new botanical samplings in little-explored areas and digitize data in national herbaria. It is critical to implement automated assessments of the conservation status of species with insufficient data. In addition, it is suggested to use species distribution models to identify optimal areas for forest restoration initiatives. Effective communication of results and collaboration between scientists, governments, and local communities are key to the protection and sustainable management of forest biodiversity in the Amazon region.

Incorporating global change reveals extinction risk beyond the current Red List

Global changes over the past few decades have caused species distribution shifts and triggered population declines and local extinctions of many species. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species (Red List) is regarded as the most comprehensive tool for assessing species extinction risk and has been used at regional, national, and global scales. However, most Red Lists rely on the past and current status of species populations and distributions but do not adequately reflect the risks induced by future global changes. Using distribution maps of >4,000 endemic woody species in China, combined with ensembled species distribution models, we assessed the species threat levels under future climate and land-cover changes using the projected changes in species' suitable habitats and compared our updated Red List with China's existing Red List. We discover an increased number of threatened species in the updated Red List and increased threat levels of >50% of the existing threatened species compared with the existing one. Over 50% of the newly identified threatened species are not adequately covered by protected areas. The Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, rather than the Hengduan Mountains, is the distribution center of threatened species on the updated Red Lists, as opposed to the threatened species on the existing Red List. Our findings suggest that using Red Lists without considering the impacts of future global changes will underestimate the extinction risks and lead to a biased estimate of conservation priorities, potentially limiting the ability to meet the Kunming-Montreal global conservation targets.

Are threatened species special? An assessment of Dutch bees in relation to land use and climate

Red Lists are widely used as an indicator of the status and trends of biodiversity and are often used in directing conservation efforts. However, it is unclear whether species with a Least Concern status share a common relationship to environmental correlates compared to species that are on the Red List. To assess this, we focus here on the contribution and correlates of land use, climate, and soil to the occurrence of wild bees in the Netherlands. We used observation data and species distribution models to explain the relation between wild bees and the environment. Non-threatened bees had a relatively higher variable importance of the land use variables to their models, as opposed to the climate variables for the threatened bees. The threatened bees had a smaller extent of occurrence and occupied areas with more extreme climatic conditions. Bees with a Least Concern status showed more positive responses to urban green spaces and Red List species showed a different response to climatic variables, such as temperature and precipitation. Even though Red List bees were found in areas with a higher cover of natural areas, they showed a more selective response to natural land use types. Pastures and crops were the main contributing land use variables and showed almost exclusively a negative correlation with the distribution of all wild bees. This knowledge supports the implementation of appropriate, species-specific conservation measures, including the preservation of natural areas, and the improvement of land use practices in agricultural and urban areas, which may help mitigate the negative impacts of future global change on species' distributions.

Effect of IUCN Red List category on public attention to mammals

Cultural data is a powerful tool to analyze public awareness of key societal issues, including the conservation of nature. I used two publicly available repositories of cultural data, Google Trends and Google Ngram, to quantify the effect of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List conservation status on public attention toward 4539 mammal species. With Google Trends, I calculated whether Google searches for their common and scientific names have been increasing or decreasing over time. I also ran an anomaly detection analysis to investigate whether a change in red-list status directly results in an increase in Google searches. Additionally, I quantified the mentions of species' common and scientific names in English texts with Google Ngram. Overall, Google searches for most mammal species remained at similar levels or increased since 2008. The severity of species' IUCN Red List status was a significant predictor of increasing Google searches, although the effect size was relatively small. Red-list status seemed strongly confounded with mammal body size. Species that moved to a higher-risk category spiked significantly in Google searches directly after the new designation. The mention of species' common names in the Google Ngram's English 2019 corpus significantly increased as the red-list category increased. These results provide valuable insight into the importance of the IUCN Red List for increasing public awareness and the usefulness of publicly available cultural data on examining the effectiveness of specific conservation efforts and thus evaluating targets for support and funding.

The Present and Future of Insect Biodiversity Conservation in the Neotropics: Policy Gaps and Recommendations

Emerging evidence suggests that insect populations may be declining at local and global scales, threatening the sustainability of the ecosystem services that insects provide. Insect declines are of particular concern in the Neotropics, which holds several of the world's hotspots of insect endemism and diversity. Conservation policies are one way to prevent and mitigate insect declines, yet these policies are usually biased toward vertebrate species. Here, we outline some key policy instruments for biodiversity conservation in the Neotropics and discuss their potential contribution and shortcomings for insect biodiversity conservation. These include species-specific action policies, protected areas and Indigenous and Community Conserved Areas (ICCAs), sectoral policies, biodiversity offsetting, market-based mechanisms, and the international policy instruments that underpin these efforts. We highlight that although these policies can potentially benefit insect biodiversity indirectly, there are avenues in which we could better incorporate the specific needs of insects into policy to mitigate the declines mentioned above. We propose several areas of improvement. Firstly, evaluating the extinction risk of more Neotropical insects to better target at-risk species with species-specific policies and conserve their habitats within area-based interventions. Secondly, alternative pest control methods and enhanced monitoring of insects in a range of land-based production sectors. Thirdly, incorporating measurable and achievable insect conservation targets into international policies and conventions. Finally, we emphasise the important roles of community engagement and enhanced public awareness in achieving these improvements to insect conservation policies.

Medically important snakes and snakebite envenoming in Iran

Snakebite is a common health condition in Iran with a diverse snake fauna, especially in tropical southern and mountainous western areas of the country with plethora of snake species. The list of medically important snakes, circumstances and effects of their bite, and necessary medical care require critical appraisal and should be updated regularly. This study aims to review and map the distributions of medically important snake species of Iran, re-evaluate their taxonomy, review their venomics, describe the clinical effects of envenoming, and discuss medical management and treatment, including the use of antivenom. Nearly 350 published articles and 26 textbooks with information on venomous and mildly venomous snake species and snakebites of Iran, were reviewed, many in Persian (Farsi) language, making them relatively inaccessible to an international readership. This has resulted in a revised updated list of Iran's medically important snake species, with taxonomic revisions of some, compilation of their morphological features, remapping of their geographical distributions, and description of species-specific clinical effects of envenoming. Moreover, the antivenom manufactured in Iran is discussed, together with treatment protocols that have been developed for the hospital management of envenomed patients.

Freshwater species diversity loss embodied in interprovincial hydroelectricity transmission with ecological network analysis

A major strategy for addressing the imbalance in source-network-load distribution is interprovincial electricity transmission; however, this process also causes various environmental effects. Previous studies have mainly examined thermal power transmission, and few insights have been gained into the challenges hydroelectricity transmission poses for biodiversity conservation. Here, we innovatively incorporated the freshwater species diversity footprint into a hydropower environmental impact assessment, calculating the interprovincial transfer of freshwater species diversity embodied in hydroelectricity transmission. We proposed an evaluation model of an interprovincial hydroelectricity transmission network using freshwater species diversity as the ecological element and creatively identified significant nodes and paths of the network. Up to 28% of the transfer of freshwater species diversity was related to the demand for hydroelectricity consumption in Shanghai. 64% of the relationships in the hydroelectricity transmission network were implemented at the expense of ecological losses on one side. Shanghai and Sichuan provinces and some transmission lines related to them were significant nodes and paths for improving the overall status of the network. This research can help policymakers comprehend the challenges to freshwater species presented by interprovincial hydroelectricity transmission and serve as a reference for ecological compensation for hydropower development.

Some threatened woody plant species recorded from forests over limestone of the Philippines

This study was conducted to determine threatened woody plants in forests over limestone in Samar Natural Park (SINP), Guiuan Marine Resource Protected Landscapes and Seascapes (GMRPLS), and other areas in the Philippines, in order to design a strategic framework for sustainable conservation of threatened species. Combined fieldwork using standard vegetation techniques and comparative literature review were done. Results revealed a total of 196 woody plant species belonging to 48 families, with 60 (DAO 2017-11) and 182 (IUCN) threatened woody plant species in the forests over limestone. The top 10 important species noted include three Critically Endangered: Diospyros longiciliata Merr., Cynometra cebuensis Seidenschwarz, F., and Shorea astylosa Foxw; three Endangered: Cinnamomum cebuense Kosterm., Tectona philippinensis Benth. & Hook.f. and Vitex parviflora Juss.; and four Vulnerable species: Agathis philippinensis Warb., Aquilaria cumingiana (Decne) Ridley, Dipterocarpus gracilis Blume, and Shorea polysperma (Blanco) Merr. A framework for sustainable conservation has been designed to prevent the loss of these threatened botanical treasures. 

Integrating deep-time palaeontology in conservation prioritisation

Halting biodiversity loss under growing anthropogenic pressure is arguably the greatest environmental challenge we face. Given that not all species are equally threatened and that resources are always limited, establishing robust prioritisation schemes is critical for implementing effective conservation actions. To this end, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species has become a widely used source of information on species’ extinction risk. Various metrics have been proposed that combine IUCN status with different aspects of biodiversity to identify conservation priorities. However, current strategies do not take full advantage of palaeontological data, with conservation palaeobiology often focussing on the near-time fossil record (the last 2 million years). Here, we make a case for the value of the deep-time (over 2 million years ago), as it can offer tangible parallels with today’s biodiversity crisis and inform on the intrinsic traits that make species prone to extinction. As such, palaeontological data holds great predictive power, which could be harnessed to flag species likely to be threatened but that are currently too poorly known to be identified as such. Finally, we identify key IUCN-based prioritisation metrics and outline opportunities for integrating palaeontological data to validate their implementation. Although the human signal of the current extinction crisis makes direct comparisons with the geological past challenging, the deep-time fossil record has more to offer to conservation than is currently recognised.

The IUCN Green Status of Species: A Call for Mediterranean Botanists to Contribute to This New Ambitious Effort

In the Mediterranean Basin, a critical focal point for the conservation of plant diversity, there has been a large increase in practical conservation actions for many plant species to prevent extinction and to improve their conservation status; quantifying the effectiveness of these initiatives in reversing species declines is urgently important. In 2021, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) launched a new tool that allows the impact of conservation actions on plant species to be assessed. The Green Status of Species is a new set of metrics under the Red List of Threatened Species that assigns species to recovery categories, complementary to the classic extinction risk categories. Crucially, the Green Status of Species provides methods to evaluate the impact of past conservation, and the potential for future conservation impact, on species status and recovery in a standardized way. Considering the efforts made so far for the conservation of Mediterranean threatened plants, using the Green Status of Species would be highly useful to direct future conservation policies. We, therefore, encourage botanists and practitioners working on threatened plants in the Mediterranean area to use this new assessment tool to inform conservation and recovery programs.

The likely extinction of hundreds of palm species threatens their contributions to people and ecosystems

Protecting nature's contributions to people requires accelerating extinction risk assessment and better integrating evolutionary, functional and used diversity with conservation planning. Here, we report machine learning extinction risk predictions for 1,381 palm species (Arecaceae), a plant family of high socio-economic and ecological importance. We integrate these predictions with published assessments for 508 species (covering 75% of all palm species) and we identify top-priority regions for palm conservation on the basis of their proportion of threatened evolutionarily distinct, functionally distinct and used species. Finally, we explore palm use resilience to identify non-threatened species that could potentially serve as substitutes for threatened used species by providing similar products. We estimate that over a thousand palms (56%) are probably threatened, including 185 species with documented uses. Some regions (New Guinea, Vanuatu and Vietnam) emerge as top ten priorities for conservation only after incorporating machine learning extinction risk predictions. Potential substitutes are identified for 91% of the threatened used species and regional use resilience increases with total palm richness. However, 16 threatened used species lack potential substitutes and 30 regions lack substitutes for at least one of their threatened used palm species. Overall, we show that hundreds of species of this keystone family face extinction, some of them probably irreplaceable, at least locally. This highlights the need for urgent actions to avoid major repercussions on palm-associated ecosystem processes and human livelihoods in the coming decades.

Towards evidence-based conservation of subterranean ecosystems

Subterranean ecosystems are among the most widespread environments on Earth, yet we still have poor knowledge of their biodiversity. To raise awareness of subterranean ecosystems, the essential services they provide, and their unique conservation challenges, 2021 and 2022 were designated International Years of Caves and Karst. As these ecosystems have traditionally been overlooked in global conservation agendas and multilateral agreements, a quantitative assessment of solution-based approaches to safeguard subterranean biota and associated habitats is timely. This assessment allows researchers and practitioners to understand the progress made and research needs in subterranean ecology and management. We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed and grey literature focused on subterranean ecosystems globally (terrestrial, freshwater, and saltwater systems), to quantify the available evidence-base for the effectiveness of conservation interventions. We selected 708 publications from the years 1964 to 2021 that discussed, recommended, or implemented 1,954 conservation interventions in subterranean ecosystems. We noted a steep increase in the number of studies from the 2000s while, surprisingly, the proportion of studies quantifying the impact of conservation interventions has steadily and significantly decreased in recent years. The effectiveness of 31% of conservation interventions has been tested statistically. We further highlight that 64% of the reported research occurred in the Palearctic and Nearctic biogeographic regions. Assessments of the effectiveness of conservation interventions were heavily biased towards indirect measures (monitoring and risk assessment), a limited sample of organisms (mostly arthropods and bats), and more accessible systems (terrestrial caves). Our results indicate that most conservation science in the field of subterranean biology does not apply a rigorous quantitative approach, resulting in sparse evidence for the effectiveness of interventions. This raises the important question of how to make conservation efforts more feasible to implement, cost-effective, and long-lasting. Although there is no single remedy, we propose a suite of potential solutions to focus our efforts better towards increasing statistical testing and stress the importance of standardising study reporting to facilitate meta-analytical exercises. We also provide a database summarising the available literature, which will help to build quantitative knowledge about interventions likely to yield the greatest impacts depending upon the subterranean species and habitats of interest. We view this as a starting point to shift away from the widespread tendency of recommending conservation interventions based on anecdotal and expert-based information rather than scientific evidence, without quantitatively testing their effectiveness.

Commercial trade of wild animals: examining the use of the IUCN Red List and CITES Appendices as the basis for corporate trade policies

Wildlife exploitation is considered a predominant factor driving global biodiversity loss and zoonotic disease transmission, in addition to a range of concerns for animal welfare and ecosystem health. One of the ways in which wild animals are exploited is for commercial trade as exotic pets, fashion products, luxury foods, traditional medicine, entertainment, ornaments and more. While the trade in some wildlife species is restricted or prohibited under various domestic and international laws, many species are not bound by legal protection and are traded in largely unmonitored numbers with the potential for severe consequences. Companies, particularly large e-commerce platforms, are increasingly adopting policies to restrict the legal trade in wild animals. Due to the absence of clear guidelines for corporate services of wildlife trade, these policies commonly adopt pre-determined species lists, such as the International Union for the Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species or the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) Appendices, as the basis for ‘negative lists’ to guide which species to restrict trade in. However, these databases were not intended for this application and there has been no assessment of their use for this purpose. Here, we summarise and compare the scale and scope of species listed on the IUCN Red List and the CITES Appendices, to discuss how much additional protection these lists provide wild animals if used as policy instruments to guide corporate wildlife trade restrictions beyond the relevant legal bounds. Based on our results, we discuss why that using one list or another would likely omit taxa of conservation concern from protection, and using both lists in conjunction would still not comprehensively reflect all species vulnerable to extinction as a result of exploitation. Further, neither list can mitigate the animal welfare and public health concerns inherently associated with all commercial wildlife trade. We recommend that companies looking to develop policies relating to commercial wildlife trade consider going beyond the scope of predetermined species lists to help mitigate the harmful effects of commercial wildlife exploitation via trade for all wild animals.

CAN-SAR: A database of Canadian species at risk information

Threatened species lists describe the conservation status of species and are key tools used to inform decisions for biodiversity conservation. These lists are rich in information obtained during status assessment and recovery planning processes, ranging from biological attributes to actions that support recovery. Data compiled from species lists allow for analyses, including assessing trends in threats, prioritizing actions, and identifying barriers to achieving recovery objectives. For legally protected species at risk of extinction in Canada, such analyses are challenging owing to a lack of comprehensive and accessible data reflecting information compiled from listing and recovery documents. To encourage ongoing synthesis and minimise duplication of efforts, we initiated CAN-SAR: a database of Canadian Species at Risk information. This transparent, open-access, and searchable database contains information transcribed from listing documents, including listing date, and derived variables. Derived variables required interpretation for which we developed standardised criteria to record information, including classification of recovery actions. The CAN-SAR database is updateable, and will contribute towards improved recovery planning to safeguard species of conservation concern.

Measurement(s)	threatened species • threat classes • recovery actions
Technology Type(s)	document review
Sample Characteristic - Organism	multiple
Sample Characteristic - Location	Canada

Automated assessment reveals that the extinction risk of reptiles is widely underestimated across space and phylogeny

The Red List of Threatened Species, published by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), is a crucial tool for conservation decision-making. However, despite substantial effort, numerous species remain unassessed or have insufficient data available to be assigned a Red List extinction risk category. Moreover, the Red Listing process is subject to various sources of uncertainty and bias. The development of robust automated assessment methods could serve as an efficient and highly useful tool to accelerate the assessment process and offer provisional assessments. Here, we aimed to (1) present a machine learning–based automated extinction risk assessment method that can be used on less known species; (2) offer provisional assessments for all reptiles—the only major tetrapod group without a comprehensive Red List assessment; and (3) evaluate potential effects of human decision biases on the outcome of assessments. We use the method presented here to assess 4,369 reptile species that are currently unassessed or classified as Data Deficient by the IUCN. The models used in our predictions were 90% accurate in classifying species as threatened/nonthreatened, and 84% accurate in predicting specific extinction risk categories. Unassessed and Data Deficient reptiles were considerably more likely to be threatened than assessed species, adding to mounting evidence that these species warrant more conservation attention. The overall proportion of threatened species greatly increased when we included our provisional assessments. Assessor identities strongly affected prediction outcomes, suggesting that assessor effects need to be carefully considered in extinction risk assessments. Regions and taxa we identified as likely to be more threatened should be given increased attention in new assessments and conservation planning. Lastly, the method we present here can be easily implemented to help bridge the assessment gap for other less known taxa.

Climate change threatens native potential agroforestry plant species in Brazil

Climate change is one of the main drivers of species extinction in the twentyfirst-century. Here, we  (1) quantify potential changes in species' bioclimatic area of habitat (BAH) of 135 native potential agroforestry species from the Brazilian flora, using two different climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and dispersal scenarios, where species have no ability to disperse and reach new areas (non-dispersal) and where species can migrate within the estimated BAH (full dispersal) for 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. We then (2) assess the preliminary conservation status of each species based on IUCN criteria. Current and future potential habitats for species were predicted using MaxEnt, a machine-learning algorithm used to estimate species' probability distribution. Future climate is predicted to trigger a mean decline in BAH between 38.5–56.3% under the non-dispersal scenario and between 22.3–41.9% under the full dispersal scenario for 135 native potential agroforestry species. Additionally, we found that only 4.3% of the studied species could be threatened under the IUCN Red List criteria B1 and B2. However, when considering the predicted quantitative habitat loss due to climate change (A3c criterion) the percentages increased between 68.8–84.4% under the non-dispersal scenario and between 40.7–64.4% under the full dispersal scenario. To lessen such threats, we argue that encouraging the use of these species in rural and peri-urban agroecosystems are promising, complementary strategies for their long-term conservation.

Identifying and mitigating the impacts on primates of transportation and service corridors

Most primate populations are declining; 60% of species face extinction. The expansion of transportation and service corridors (T&S) (i.e., roads and railways and utility and service lines) poses a significant yet underappreciated threat. With the development of T&S corridors predicted to increase across primates' ranges, it is necessary to understand the current extent of its impacts on primates, the available options to mitigate these effectively, and recognize research and knowledge gaps. By employing a systematic search approach to identify literature that described the relationship between primates and T&S corridors, we extracted information from 327 studies published between 1980 and 2020. Our results revealed that 218 species and subspecies across 62 genera are affected, significantly more than the 92 listed by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. The majority of studies took place in Asia (45%), followed by mainland Africa (31%), the Neotropics (22%), and Madagascar (2%). Brazil, Indonesia, Equatorial Guinea, Vietnam, and Madagascar contained the greatest number of affected primate species. Asia featured the highest number of species affected by roads, electrical transmission lines, and pipelines and the only studies addressing the impact of rail and aerial tramways on primates. The impact of seismic lines only emerged in the literature from Africa and the Neotropics. Impacts are diverse and multifaceted, for example, animal-vehicle collisions, electrocutions, habitat loss and fragmentation, impeded movement and genetic exchange, behavioral changes, exposure to pollution, and mortality associated with hunting. Although several mitigation measures were recommended, only 41% of studies focused on their implementation, whereas only 29% evaluated their effectiveness. Finally, there was a clear bias in the species and regions benefiting from research on this topic. We recommend that government and conservation bodies recognize T&S corridors as a serious and mounting threat to primates and that further research in this area is encouraged.

Green plant genomes: What we know in an era of rapidly expanding opportunities

Green plants play a fundamental role in ecosystems, human health, and agriculture. As de novo genomes are being generated for all known eukaryotic species as advocated by the Earth BioGenome Project, increasing genomic information on green land plants is essential. However, setting standards for the generation and storage of the complex set of genomes that characterize the green lineage of life is a major challenge for plant scientists. Such standards will need to accommodate the immense variation in green plant genome size, transposable element content, and structural complexity while enabling research into the molecular and evolutionary processes that have resulted in this enormous genomic variation. Here we provide an overview and assessment of the current state of knowledge of green plant genomes. To date fewer than 300 complete chromosome-scale genome assemblies representing fewer than 900 species have been generated across the estimated 450,000 to 500,000 species in the green plant clade. These genomes range in size from 12 Mb to 27.6 Gb and are biased toward agricultural crops with large branches of the green tree of life untouched by genomic-scale sequencing. Locating suitable tissue samples of most species of plants, especially those taxa from extreme environments, remains one of the biggest hurdles to increasing our genomic inventory. Furthermore, the annotation of plant genomes is at present undergoing intensive improvement. It is our hope that this fresh overview will help in the development of genomic quality standards for a cohesive and meaningful synthesis of green plant genomes as we scale up for the future.

Testing a global standard for quantifying species recovery and assessing conservation impact

Recognizing the imperative to evaluate species recovery and conservation impact, in 2012 the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) called for development of a "Green List of Species" (now the IUCN Green Status of Species). A draft Green Status framework for assessing species' progress toward recovery, published in 2018, proposed 2 separate but interlinked components: a standardized method (i.e., measurement against benchmarks of species' viability, functionality, and preimpact distribution) to determine current species recovery status (herein species recovery score) and application of that method to estimate past and potential future impacts of conservation based on 4 metrics (conservation legacy, conservation dependence, conservation gain, and recovery potential). We tested the framework with 181 species representing diverse taxa, life histories, biomes, and IUCN Red List categories (extinction risk). Based on the observed distribution of species' recovery scores, we propose the following species recovery categories: fully recovered, slightly depleted, moderately depleted, largely depleted, critically depleted, extinct in the wild, and indeterminate. Fifty-nine percent of tested species were considered largely or critically depleted. Although there was a negative relationship between extinction risk and species recovery score, variation was considerable. Some species in lower risk categories were assessed as farther from recovery than those at higher risk. This emphasizes that species recovery is conceptually different from extinction risk and reinforces the utility of the IUCN Green Status of Species to more fully understand species conservation status. Although extinction risk did not predict conservation legacy, conservation dependence, or conservation gain, it was positively correlated with recovery potential. Only 1.7% of tested species were categorized as zero across all 4 of these conservation impact metrics, indicating that conservation has, or will, play a role in improving or maintaining species status for the vast majority of these species. Based on our results, we devised an updated assessment framework that introduces the option of using a dynamic baseline to assess future impacts of conservation over the short term to avoid misleading results which were generated in a small number of cases, and redefines short term as 10 years to better align with conservation planning. These changes are reflected in the IUCN Green Status of Species Standard.

Impact of an IUCN national Red List of threatened flora on scientific attention

Red Lists are thought to attract attention to the conservation of threatened species. Determining the impact of these lists on the attention of scientists is a matter of consequence for biodiversity conservation. We evaluated trends in mentions of Brazilian angiosperm plants in the biodiversity conservation literature and tested the effect of the Red List of Brazilian Flora (RLBF) publication on these mentions. We collected mentions in the literature available in Google Scholar from the years 1990-2020, for 2449 Brazilian angiosperm species assessed in different IUCN categories. We used a Bayesian structural time-series method to test the effect of the RLBF publication on the number of mentions for the set of species in the IUCN categories, angiosperm families, and plants of commercial interest. The results showed a gap in mentions for many threatened and Data Deficient species in the scientific literature. We also found that the mentions were biased toward species of commercial interest and were unrelated to their threat status. Publication of the RLBF positively affected the number of mentions for IUCN threat categories and for more than half of the angiosperm families. These results were obtained after a few species of commercial interest were excluded from each treated group. This study suggests that the Red List assessments are essential to determine priorities for resource allocation to scientific activities. However, this effect was not sufficient to reduce the bias in scientific attention. Our findings support the need to stimulate more effective programs to fund research on threatened plant species.

Science, Policy, and Conservation Management for a Critically Endangered Primate in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil

Long-standing concerns about the status of the world's endangered primates have stimulated significant international efforts, such as the primate action plans published by the Primate Specialist Group of the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Species Survival Commission. However, national-level action plans that bring together diverse scientific experts, non-governmental organizations, and governmental agencies to focus on improving the status of endangered species are generally rare. Here, we highlight one such plan published a decade ago, the Brazilian National Action Plan for the Conservation of Muriquis, which promoted the integration of scientific findings about the behavioral ecology, demography, and genetics of northern muriquis with conservation measures supported by the Brazilian government. This plan provided a holistic framework for the development of an effective national strategy that has contributed to significant advances in research and management applied to the conservation of this Critically Endangered species. We hope that this model for muriquis will stimulate conservationists around the world to pursue integrative national-level sponsorship of action plans on behalf of other endangered species.

Knowledge Gaps in the Definition of Threats for the Red List Assessment of European Freshwater-Dependent Fish Species

Simple Summary

This study aims to understand if the threats to freshwater-dependent species identified by The International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species are correctly supported by valid literature. The results show that 99% of threats are not supported by validated published scientific knowledge. This may lead to ineffective conservation and management plans. Funding to study and fill baseline knowledge gaps about threats should be a priority.

Abstract

Freshwater ecosystems are disproportionally important for biodiversity conservation, as they support more than 9% of known animal species while representing less than 1% of the Earth’s surface. However, the vast majority of the threats (99%, or 826 out of 837) identified by the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species known to affect the 434 known freshwater-dependent fish and lampreys of Europe are not supported by validated published scientific knowledge. This general lack of information about freshwater-dependent fish and lamprey species may have deleterious effects on species conservation, and additional funding is required to fill baseline knowledge gaps.

Red List assessment of amphibian species of Ecuador: A multidimensional approach for their conservation

Ecuador is one of the most biodiverse countries in the world, but faces severe pressures and threats to its natural ecosystems. Numerous species have declined and require to be objectively evaluated and quantified, as a step towards the development of conservation strategies. Herein, we present an updated National Red List Assessment for amphibian species of Ecuador, with one of the most detailed and complete coverages for any Ecuadorian taxonomic group to date. Based on standardized methodologies that integrate taxonomic work, spatial analyses, and ecological niche modeling, we assessed the extinction risk and identified the main threats for all Ecuadorian native amphibians (635 species), using the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria. Our evaluation reveals that 57% (363 species) are categorized as Threatened, 12% (78 species) as Near Threatened, 4% (26 species) as Data Deficient, and 27% (168 species) as Least Concern. Our assessment almost doubles the number of threatened species in comparison with previous evaluations. In addition to habitat loss, the expansion of the agricultural/cattle raising frontier and other anthropogenic threats (roads, human settlements, and mining/oil activities) amplify the incidence of other pressures as relevant predictors of ecological integrity. Potential synergic effects with climate change and emergent diseases (apparently responsible for the sudden declines), had particular importance amongst the threats sustained by Ecuadorian amphibians. Most threatened species are distributed in montane forests and paramo habitats of the Andes, with nearly 10% of them occurring outside the National System of Protected Areas of the Ecuadorian government. Based on our results, we recommend the following actions: (i) An increase of the National System of Protected Areas to include threatened species. (ii) Supporting the ex/in-situ conservation programs to protect species considered like Critically Endangered and Endangered. (iii) Focalizing research efforts towards the description of new species, as well as species currently categorized as Data Deficient (DD) that may turn out to be threatened. The implementation of the described actions is challenging, but urgent, given the current conservation crisis faced by amphibians.

How Threatened Is Scincella huanrenensis? An Update on Threats and Trends

It is important to understand the dynamics of population size to accurately assess threats and implement conservation activities when required. However, inaccurate estimates are harming both the threat estimation process, and the resulting conservation actions. Here, we address the extinction threats to Scincella huanrenensis, a species described in the People’s Republic of China, but also occurring on the Korean peninsula. Estimating the threats to the species is not an easy task due to its unknown population status in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Here we analysed the literature to acquire the known presence point for the species, along with datapoints originating from opportunistic field surveys, and employed habitat suitability models to estimate the range of the species. We then followed the categories and criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species to assess the extinction risk of the species. We found the species not to be fitting the threatened category at the global scale based on the range size, the only category for which enough data was available. We recommend the status of the species on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species to be updated as it is now listed as critically endangered (CR), a listing fitting a national assessment for the People’s Republic (PR) of China. While this species is possibly less threatened than currently listed, this is not a genuine improvement, and specific conservation aspects should not be neglected due to its specialisation to medium to high elevation habitat.

Effects of the Argentine ant venom on terrestrial amphibians

Invasive species have major impacts on biodiversity and are one of the primary causes of amphibian decline and extinction. Unlike other top ant invaders that negatively affect larger fauna via chemical defensive compounds, the Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) does not have a functional sting. Nonetheless, it deploys defensive compounds against competitors and adversaries. We estimated levels of ant aggression toward 3 native terrestrial amphibians by challenging juveniles in field ant trails and in lab ant foraging arenas. We measured the composition and quantities of toxin in L. humile by analyzing pygidial glands and whole-body contents. We examined the mechanisms of toxicity in juvenile amphibians by quantifying the toxin in amphibian tissues, searching for histological damages, and calculating toxic doses for each amphibian species. To determine the potential scope of the threat to amphibians, we used global databases to estimate the number, ranges, and conservation status of terrestrial amphibian species with ranges that overlap those of L. humile. Juvenile amphibians co-occurring spatially and temporally with L. humile die when they encounter L. humile on an ant trail. In the lab, when a juvenile amphibian came in contact with L. humile the ants reacted quickly to spray pygidial-gland venom onto the juveniles. Iridomyrmecin was the toxic compound in the spray. Following absorption, it accumulated in brain, kidney, and liver tissue. Toxic dose for amphibian was species dependent. Worldwide, an estimated 817 terrestrial amphibian species overlap in range with L. humile, and 6.2% of them are classified as threatened. Our findings highlight the high potential of L. humile venom to negatively affect amphibian juveniles and provide a basis for exploring the largely overlooked impacts this ant has in its wide invasive range.

Ten bridges on the road to recovering Canada’s endangered species

Wildlife is declining around the world. Many developed nations have enacted legislation on endangered species protection and provide funding for wildlife recovery. Protecting endangered species is also supported by the public and judiciary. Yet, despite what appear as enabling conditions, wild species continue to decline. Our paper explores pathways to endangered species recovery by analyzing the barriers that have been identified in Canada, the United States, and Australia. We summarize these findings based on Canada’s Species at Risk Conservation Cycle (assessment, protection, recovery planning, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation) and then identify 10 “bridges” that could help overcome these barriers and bend our current trajectory of wildlife loss to recovery. These bridges include ecosystem approaches to recovery, building capacity for community co-governance, linking wildlife recovery to ecosystem services, and improving our storytelling about the loss and recovery of wildlife. The focus of our conclusions is the Canadian setting, but our findings can be applied in other national and subnational settings to reverse the decline of wildlife and halt extinction.