Image-Guided Superficial Radiation Therapy Has Superior 2-Year Recurrence Rates to Mohs Micrographic Surgery

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSCs) are the most common malignancy in the USA, and incidence is rising. Mohs micrographic surgery (MMS) is a tissue-sparing surgical technique often used in NMSCs. Superficial radiation therapy (SRT) was widely used prior to the advent of MMS, but MMS has superior recurrence rates and replaced SRT as a first-line therapy. Image-guided SRT (IGSRT) was invented in 2015 and utilizes ultrasound to improve SRT precision and produces minimal side effects (99% grade 1 or 2).[1] The hypothesis is that NMSCs treated with IGSRT will have improved 2-year recurrence rates of compared to those treated with Mohs micrographic surgery.

MATERIALS/METHODS

This retrospective cohort study compared the 2-year recurrence probability of early stage NMSCs (squamous and basal cell carcinomas (SCCs and BCCs)) treated by IGSRT (2,286 lesions) to data on NMSCs treated by MMS (5,391 lesions) via one sample proportion tests. IGSRT-treated NMSC data is from a database published by Yu et al.[1] The 2-year recurrence probability statistical analysis is from McClure et al.[2] Medical Subject Headings were used to search PubMed for reports of 2-year recurrence rates of NMSCs treated by MMS. Seventeen studies were screened; 14 studies were excluded for lack of 2-year time to event analysis, or irrelevant patient population (non-BCC/SCC study, advanced disease), leaving 3 studies for comparison.

RESULTS

IGSRT-treated NMSCs have a statistically significantly improved 2-year recurrence rates compared to MMS-treated (p<0.001 for pooled data). When separated by histology, 2-year recurrence rates of all reported SCCs and BCCs treated by MMS were also inferior to those treated by IGSRT, p<0.001, p = 0.0218, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In this analysis, IGSRT has superior 2-year recurrence rates. Limitations include insufficient follow-up to report on the 5-year recurrence probability and inability to adjust for confounding factors beyond histology. This data implies that IGSRT is a well-tolerated, paradigm-shifting treatment option for patients with early stage NMSCs who cannot tolerate or refuse surgery. IGSRT provides patients the choice of treatment modality that best aligns with their goals of care.

Intensification patterns and the probability of HbA1c goal attainment in Type 2 diabetes mellitus: real-world evidence for the concept of 'intensification inertia'

AIMS

To assess the effects of 'clinical' and 'intensification inertia' by evaluating the impact of different intensification interventions on the probability of HbA_1c goal attainment using real-world data.

METHODS

Electronic health records (Cleveland Clinic, 2005-2016) were used to identify 7389 people with Type 2 diabetes mellitus and HbA_1c ≥53 mmol/mol (≥7.0%), despite a stable regimen of two oral antihyperglycaemic drugs for ≥6 months. The participants were stratified by index HbA_1c and analysed over a 6-month period for pharmacological intensification, and then for 12 additional months for HbA_1c goal attainment (<53 mmol/mol).

RESULTS

The probability of HbA_1c goal attainment (Kaplan-Meier analysis) in the group with index HbA_1c 53-63 mmol/mol (7.0-7.9%) was highest with the addition of oral antidiabetic drugs [57.3% (95% CI 52.1, 62.0)] or glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists [56.7% (95% CI 40.4, 68.6)], in the 64-74 mmol/mol (8.0-8.9%) group with the addition of oral antidiabetic drugs [31.9% (95% CI 25.1, 38.1)] or insulin [30.6% (95% CI 18.3, 41.0)], and in the ≥75 mmol/mol (≥9.0%) group with the addition of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists [53.0% (95% CI 31.8, 67.6)] or insulin [43.5% (95% CI 36.4, 49.8)].

CONCLUSIONS

Numerical, but not statistically significant, differences in HbA_1c goal attainment probability by type of intensification were most marked in people with the highest index HbA_1c [≥75 mmol/mol (≥9.0%)]; in this group, injectable therapy showed trends toward greater glycaemic control benefits. Additional research into the phenomenon of intensification inertia is warranted.

Reasons for Discontinuing Active Surveillance: Assessment of 21 Centres in 12 Countries in the Movember GAP3 Consortium

BACKGROUND

Careful assessment of the reasons for discontinuation of active surveillance (AS) is required for men with prostate cancer (PCa).

OBJECTIVE

Using Movember's Global Action Plan Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance initiative (GAP3) database, we report on reasons for AS discontinuation.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

We compared data from 10296 men on AS from 21 centres across 12 countries.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Cumulative incidence methods were used to estimate the cumulative incidence rates of AS discontinuation.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

During 5-yr follow-up, 27.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 26.4-28.6%) men showed signs of disease progression, 12.8% (95% CI: 12.0-13.6%) converted to active treatment without evidence of progression, 1.7% (95% CI: 1.5-2.0%) continued to watchful waiting, and 1.7% (95% CI: 1.4-2.1%) died from other causes. Of the 7049 men who remained on AS, 2339 had follow-up for >5yr, 4561 had follow-up for <5yr, and 149 were lost to follow-up. Cumulative incidence of progression was 27.5% (95% CI: 26.4-28.6%) at 5yr and 38.2% (95% CI: 36.7-39.9%) at 10yr. A limitation is that not all centres were included due to limited information on the reason for discontinuation and limited follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Our descriptive analyses of current AS practices worldwide showed that 43.6% of men drop out of AS during 5-yr follow-up, mainly due to signs of disease progression. Improvements in selection tools for AS are thus needed to correctly allocate men with PCa to AS, which will also reduce discontinuation due to conversion to active treatment without evidence of disease progression.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Our assessment of a worldwide database of men with prostate cancer (PCa) on active surveillance (AS) shows that 43.6% drop out of AS within 5yr, mainly due to signs of disease progression. Better tools are needed to select and monitor men with PCa as part of AS.

An exploratory analysis of alkaline phosphatase, lactate dehydrogenase, and prostate-specific antigen dynamics in the phase 3 ALSYMPCA trial with radium-223

Background

Baseline clinical variables are prognostic for overall survival (OS) in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). Their prognostic and predictive value with agents targeting bone metastases, such as radium-223, is not established.

Patients and methods

The radium-223 ALSYMPCA trial enrolled patients with CRPC and symptomatic bone metastases. Prognostic potential of baseline variables was assessed using Cox models. Percentage changes in biomarker levels from baseline were evaluated during the trial period; changes from baseline to week 12 were evaluated for association with OS and surrogacy.

Results

Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, total alkaline phosphatase (tALP), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) at baseline were associated with OS (P ≤ 0.0003) in the intent-to-treat population (radium-223, N = 614; placebo, N = 307). tALP declined from baseline within 4 weeks after beginning radium-223, by week 12 declining in 87% of radium-223 and 23% of placebo patients (P < 0.001). LDH declined in 51% and 34% (P = 0.003), whereas PSA declined in 27% and 14% (P = 0.160). Mean tALP change from baseline was 32.2% decrease with radium-223 and 37.2% increase with placebo. Radium-223 patients with tALP decline from baseline to week 12 (confirmed ≥3 weeks from week 12) had 55% lower risk of death (hazard ratio = 0.45; 95% CI 0.34-0.61) versus those with no confirmed tALP decline. Proportional treatment effect (PTE) values for tALP, LDH, and PSA changes from baseline at week 12 as OS surrogate markers were 0.34 (95% CI: 0-0.746), 0.07 (95% CI: 0-0.211), and 0 (95% CI: 0-0.082), respectively.

Conclusions

Significant tALP declines (versus placebo) occurred as early as 4 weeks after beginning radium-223 therapy. tALP or LDH declines at 12 weeks correlated with longer OS, but did not meet statistical surrogacy requirements. Dynamic changes in tALP and LDH during radium-223 treatments may be useful to monitor, but do not serve as surrogates for survival.

Abstract P3-09-09: Assessing utility of breast cancer risk assessment tool in comparison to Tyrer-Cuzick model for determination of breast cancer risk and implications for chemoprevention

Background

Despite findings that the Tyrer-Cuzick (IBIS Breast Cancer Risk Evaluation Tool or TC) model is more predictive of breast cancer risk than the Gail model (NCI maintained Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool or BCRAT), BCRAT is commonly clinically used as per the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF), with a 5-year risk for breast cancer (BC) of greater than 3% on BCRAT, the benefits of preventive medication likely outweigh the risks. We aimed to compare the models, 1: to see if a 10 year risk estimate per the TC model reliably correlated with the 3% 5 year risk per BCRAT, and 2: to analyze the subset of patients with atypical hyperplasia (AH) and lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS) who are known both to be at high risk for breast cancer and to benefit from chemoprevention. Our hypothesis is that BCRAT has limited utility in risk estimation, and the most comprehensive model for risk estimation and clinical decision making is TC.

Methods

200 women ages 35-64 women followed in benign breast clinic were included. Risk estimations were run using BCRAT, TC version 7 (v7) and TC version 8 (v8). A Pearson's Correlation test was conducted to investigate the relationship between the TC models and the BCRAT model. A p-value &lt; 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

Analysis showed a positive moderate-strength relationship between the TC v7 10-year risk and the 5-year BCRAT risk for this population (R = 0.468, P&lt;0.001) and a positive moderate-strength relationship between the TC v8 10-year risk and the 5-year BCRAT risk (R = 0.550, P&lt;0.001). A TC v7 risk of 8.09% (95% confidence interval (CI): 7.42-8.75) and a TC v8 risk of 8.54% (95% CI: 7.85-9.24) corresponded to a BCRAT risk of 3%. However, much error was present when assessing consistency and correlation between the models.

A total of 36 patients were diagnosed with AH, 2 patients were diagnosed with LCIS and 7 patients were diagnosed with both AH and LCIS. 11 patients who had AH had an estimated 5-year risk per the BCRAT model of &lt;3%. Two of these patients were pre-menopausal and African American and one was pre-menopausal and Hispanic. Of the remaining 8 patients, all were under the age of 60.

Of the 30 patients who had a BCRAT 5-year estimated risk of BC of &gt;3% but no AH or LCIS, 12 had two first degree relatives with breast cancer and 16 had a first-degree relative with BC and at least two benign breast biopsies.

Conclusion

BCRAT is limited and caution is warranted with its use in assessing risk and for counseling around chemoprevention benefit. There is not reliable correlation between the 5 year BCRAT risk estimate and the 10 year TC risk estimate. Chemoprevention should be discussed for patients with AH, LCIS or 2+ first degree relatives with breast cancer. Further, BCRAT may underestimate risk in minority populations and others with AH. For a limited group of patients with moderate risk, dual modeling may be clinically useful in making chemopreventive recommendations.

Citation Format: Pederson HJ, Yanda C, Kline M, Stephens M, Goraya ST, Grobmyer SR, Kattan MW. Assessing utility of breast cancer risk assessment tool in comparison to Tyrer-Cuzick model for determination of breast cancer risk and implications for chemoprevention [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2017 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2017 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P3-09-09.

High PSA anxiety and low health literacy skills: drivers of early use of salvage ADT among men with biochemically recurrent prostate cancer after radiotherapy?

BACKGROUND

Although commonly used, early initiation of salvage androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) has not been proven to enhance survival. We evaluated whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) anxiety or health literacy are associated with use of early salvage ADT among men with recurrent prostate cancer after radiotherapy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The prospective Comprehensive, Observational, Multicenter, Prostate Adenocarcinoma Registry was used to study 375 men with biochemically recurrent prostate cancer after external beam radiation or brachytherapy. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine whether PSA anxiety and health literacy are associated with salvage ADT as initial management after biochemical recurrence.

RESULTS

Sixty-eight men (18.1%) received salvage ADT as initial management for PSA recurrence. Men with high PSA anxiety were twice as likely to receive salvage ADT compared with men who did not have high PSA anxiety on both univariable [28.8% versus 13.1%; odds ratio (OR) 2.15; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.16-4.00; P = 0.015] and multivariable analysis [adjusted OR (AOR) 2.36; 95% CI 1.21-4.62; P = 0.012]. Furthermore, men who had higher levels of health literacy were nearly half as likely to undergo salvage ADT compared with men who had lower levels of health literacy on univariable analysis (15.2% versus 26.3%; OR 0.50; 95% CI 0.29-0.88; P = 0.016), with a trend toward this association on multivariable analysis (AOR 0.58; 95% CI 0.32-1.05; P = 0.07).

CONCLUSIONS

Among men with PSA recurrence after radiotherapy, odds of use of salvage ADT were nearly twice as great among men with high PSA anxiety or low health literacy, suggesting that these men are receiving higher rates of unproven treatment. Given that early salvage ADT is costly, worsens quality of life, and has not been shown to improve survival, quality improvement strategies are needed for these individuals.

Autologous haematopoietic stem cell mobilisation in multiple myeloma and lymphoma patients: a position statement from the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation

Autologous haematopoietic SCT with PBSCs is regularly used to restore BM function in patients with multiple myeloma or lymphoma after myeloablative chemotherapy. Twenty-eight experts from the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation developed a position statement on the best approaches to mobilising PBSCs and on possibilities of optimising graft yields in patients who mobilise poorly. Choosing the appropriate mobilisation regimen, based on patients' disease stage and condition, and optimising the apheresis protocol can improve mobilisation outcomes. Several factors may influence mobilisation outcomes, including older age, a more advanced disease stage, the type of prior chemotherapy (e.g., fludarabine or melphalan), prior irradiation or a higher number of prior treatment lines. The most robust predictive factor for poor PBSC collection is the CD34(+) cell count in PB before apheresis. Determination of the CD34(+) cell count in PB before apheresis helps to identify patients at risk of poor PBSC collection and allows pre-emptive intervention to rescue mobilisation in these patients. Such a proactive approach might help to overcome deficiencies in stem cell mobilisation and offers a rationale for the use of novel mobilisation agents.

Gender-specific effects of oral hypoglycaemic agents on cancer risk in type 2 diabetes mellitus

AIMS

To analyse the association between cancer incidence and oral diabetes therapy (biguanide, sulphonylurea, thiazolidinedione and meglitinide) in men and women with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of the electronic health record-based Cleveland Clinic Diabetes Registry (25 613 patients) was cross-indexed with the histology-based tumour registry (48 051 cancer occurrences) over an 8-year period (1998-2006). Multiple imputations were used to account for missing data. Cox regression with propensity scores was used to model time for the development of incident cancer in each of the imputed datasets and the results were pooled.

RESULTS

During 51 994 person follow-up years, 892 incident cancer cases were identified; prostate (14.5%) and breast (11.7%) malignancies were most frequent. In women, thiazolidinedione use was associated with a 32% decreased cancer risk compared with sulphonylurea use [hazard ratio (HR) 0.68; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.48-0.97, in the adjusted analysis]. Comparison of insulin secretagogues (sulphonylurea and meglitinide) versus insulin sensitizers (biguanide and thiazolidinedione) demonstrated a 21% decreased cancer risk in insulin sensitizers [HR 0.79 (95% CI 0.64-0.98) in the adjusted analysis]. Oral diabetes therapy showed no significant difference in men. Adjustments were made for age, body mass index (BMI), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), triglycerides, coronary heart disease (CHD), diabetes oral monotherapy, race, gender, haemoglobin A1c, statin use, income, insulin use, glomerular filtration rate (GFR), new diabetes status, prior cancer, prior cerebrovascular accident (stroke or transient ischaemic event), systolic/diastolic blood pressure, tobacco use (ever/never) and the propensity score for receiving a biguanide.

CONCLUSIONS

Oral insulin sensitizers, particularly thiazolidinedione, are associated with decreased malignancy risk in women with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

The prognostic value of kidney transplant center report cards

SRTR report cards provide the basis for quality measurement of US transplant centers. There is limited data evaluating the prognostic value of report cards, informing whether they are predictive of prospective patient outcomes. Using national SRTR data, we simulated report cards and calculated standardized mortality ratios (SMR) for kidney transplant centers over five distinct eras. We ranked centers based on SMR and evaluated outcomes for patients transplanted the year following reports. Recipients transplanted at the 50th, 100th and 200th ranked centers had 18% (AHR = 1.18, 1.13-1.22), 38% (AHR = 1.38, 1.28-1.49) and 91% (AHR = 1.91, 1.64-2.21) increased hazard for 1-year mortality relative to recipients at the top-ranked center. Risks were attenuated but remained significant for long-term outcomes. Patients transplanted at centers meeting low-performance criteria in the prior period had 40% (AHR = 1.40, 1.22-1.68) elevated hazard for 1-year mortality in the prospective period. Centers' SMR from the report card was highly predictive (c-statistics > 0.77) for prospective center SMRs and there was significant correlation between centers' SMR from the report card period and the year following (ρ = 0.57, p < 0.001). Although results do not mitigate potential biases of report cards for measuring quality, they do indicate strong prognostic value for future outcomes. Findings also highlight that outcomes are associated with center ranking across a continuum rather than solely at performance margins.

Increase in overall mortality risk in patients with type 2 diabetes receiving glipizide, glyburide or glimepiride monotherapy versus metformin: a retrospective analysis

AIMS

It remains uncertain if differences in mortality risk exist among the sulfonylureas, especially in patients with documented coronary artery disease (CAD). The purpose of this study was to assess the overall mortality risk of the individual sulfonylureas versus metformin in a large cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using an academic health centre enterprise-wide electronic health record (EHR) system to identify 23 915 patients with type 2 diabetes who initiated monotherapy with metformin (N = 12774), glipizide (N = 4325), glyburide (N = 4279) or glimepiride (N = 2537), ≥ 18 years of age, with and without a history of CAD, and not on insulin or a non-insulin injectable at baseline. The patients were followed for mortality by documentation in the EHR and Social Security Death Index. Multivariable Cox models with propensity analysis were used to compare cohorts.

RESULTS

An increase in overall mortality risk was observed in the entire cohort with glipizide (HR 1.64; 95% CI 1.39-1.94), glyburide (HR 1.59; 95% CI 1.35-1.88), and glimepiride (HR 1.68; 95% CI 1.37-2.06) versus metformin; however, in those patients with documented CAD, a statistically significant increase in overall mortality risk was only found with glipizide (HR 1.41; 95% CI 1.07-1.87) and glyburide (HR 1.38; 95% CI 1.04-1.83) versus metformin.

CONCLUSIONS

Glipizide, glyburide and glimepiride are associated with an increased risk of overall mortality versus metformin. Our results suggest that if a sulfonylurea is required to obtain glycaemic control, glimepiride may be the preferred sulfonylurea in those with underlying CAD.

The risk of overall mortality in patients with Type 2 diabetes receiving different combinations of sulfonylureas and metformin: a retrospective analysis

AIMS

Sulfonylureas have been shown to increase mortality when used in combination with metformin. This may not be a class effect of sulfonylureas, but rather secondary to differences in properties inherent to the individual sulfonylureas (hypoglycaemic risk, sulfonylurea receptor selectivity and effects on myocardial ischemic preconditioning). The purpose of this study was to assess the risk of overall mortality in patients with Type 2 diabetes treated with different combinations of sulfonylureas and metformin.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using an academic health center enterprise-wide electronic health record system to identify 7320 patients with Type 2 diabetes (3768 initiators of glyburide (glibenclamide) and metformin, 2277 initiators of glipizide and metformin and 1275 initiators of glimepiride and metformin), ≥ 18 years of age and not on insulin or a non-insulin injectable at baseline. The patients were followed for mortality by documentation in the electronic health record and Social Security Death Index. Multivariable Cox models with propensity analysis were used to compare cohorts.

RESULTS

No statistically significant difference in overall mortality risk was observed among the different combinations of sulfonylureas and metformin: glimepiride and metformin vs. glipizide and metformin (HR 1.03; 95% CI 0.89-1.20), glimepiride and metformin vs. glyburide (glibenclamide) and metformin (HR 1.08; 95% CI 0.90-1.30), or with glipizide and metformin vs. glyburide (glibenclamide) and metformin (HR 1.05; 95% CI 0.95-1.15).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results did not identify an increased mortality risk among the different combinations of sulfonylureas and metformin, suggesting that overall mortality is not substantially influenced by the choice of sulfonylurea.

Deriving benefit of early detection from biomarker-based prognostic models

Many prognostic models for cancer use biomarkers that have utility in early detection. For example, in prostate cancer, models predicting disease-specific survival use serum prostate-specific antigen levels. These models typically show that higher marker levels are associated with poorer prognosis. Consequently, they are often interpreted as indicating that detecting disease at a lower threshold of the biomarker is likely to generate a survival benefit. However, lowering the threshold of the biomarker is tantamount to early detection. For survival benefit to not be simply an artifact of starting the survival clock earlier, we must account for the lead time of early detection. It is not known whether the existing prognostic models imply a survival benefit under early detection once lead time has been accounted for. In this article, we investigate survival benefit implied by prognostic models where the predictor(s) of disease-specific survival are age and/or biomarker level at disease detection. We show that the benefit depends on the rate of biomarker change, the lead time, and the biomarker level at the original date of diagnosis as well as on the parameters of the prognostic model. Even if the prognostic model indicates that lowering the threshold of the biomarker is associated with longer disease-specific survival, this does not necessarily imply that early detection will confer an extension of life expectancy.

Transatlantic Consensus Group on active surveillance and focal therapy for prostate cancer

What's known on the subject? and What does the study add? Active surveillance for prostate cancer is gaining increasing acceptance for low risk prostate cancer. Focal therapy is an emerging tissue preservation strategy that aims for treat only areas of cancer. Early phase trials have shown that side-effects can be significantly reduced using focal therapy. There is significant uncertainty in both active surveillance and focal therapy. This consensus group paper provides a road-map for clinical practice and research for both tissue-preserving strategies in the areas of patient population, tools for risk stratification and cancer localisation, treatment interventions as well as comparators and outcome measures in future comparative trials.

OBJECTIVE

To reach consensus on key issues for clinical practice and future research in active surveillance and focal therapy in managing localized prostate cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A group of expert urologists, oncologists, radiologists, pathologists and computer scientists from North America and Europe met to discuss issues in patient population, interventions, comparators and outcome measures to use in both tissue-preserving strategies of active surveillance and focal therapy. Break-out sessions were formed to provide agreement or highlight areas of disagreement on individual topics which were then collated by a writing group into statements that formed the basis of this report and agreed upon by the whole Transatlantic Consensus Group.

RESULTS

The Transatlantic group propose that emerging diagnostic tools such as precision imaging and transperineal prostate mapping biopsy can improve prostate cancer care. These tools should be integrated into prostate cancer management and research so that better risk stratification and more effective treatment allocation can be applied. The group envisaged a process of care in which active surveillance, focal therapy, and radical treatments lie on a continuum of complementary therapies for men with a range of disease grades and burdens, rather than being applied in the mutually exclusive and competitive way they are now.

CONCLUSION

The changing landscape of prostate cancer epidemiology requires the medical community to re-evaluate the entire prostate cancer diagnostic and treatment pathway in order to minimize harms resulting from over-diagnosis and over-treatment. Precise risk stratification at every point in this pathway is required alongside paradigm shifts in our thinking about what constitutes cancer in the prostate.

How accurate are present risk group assignment tools in penile cancer?

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the accuracy of the predictive models available to estimate the risk of lymph node metastases and cancer-specific survival in patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the penis.

METHODS

A nonsystematic review of the literature was performed searching MEDLINE in January 2008.

RESULTS

Most of the authors select patients for early inguinal lymphadenectomy according to the pathologic extension of the primary tumor and its histologic grade, as recommended by the EAU Guidelines and the Solsona risk groups. Although the Solsona risk groups performed slightly better, both risk groups had low predictive accuracy. A nomogram including eight clinical and pathologic variables (tumor thickness, microscopic growth pattern, Broder's grade, presence of vascular or lymphatic embolization, infiltrations of the corpora cavernosa, corpus spongiosum or urethra, and the clinical stage of groin lymph nodes) was developed to estimate the risk of lymph node involvement at follow-up. Two nomograms are currently available able to estimate the 5-year cancer-specific survival probabilities of the patients. The first nomogram included the clinical lymph node stage and the same pathological variables of the primary tumor at penectomy, while the pathological stage of the lymph nodes replaced the clinical one in the second model. All the 3 nomograms had good prognostic accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

Both the Solsona and EAU risk group assessment had low prognostic accuracy, although the Solsona risk groups performed slightly better. The nomograms designed to predict the risk of lymph node metastases showed and cancer-specific survival had good prognostic accuracy but their external validation is still lacking.

Pitfalls in the diagnosis of prostatic cancer: retrospective review of 1791 cases with clinical outcome

AIMS

To assess the possible reasons for error in the diagnosis of prostatic cancer with available follow-up data.

METHOD AND RESULTS

A cohort of 1791 cases of prostatic cancer diagnosed in the UK between 1990 and 1996 was examined. All cases were clinically localized at presentation, treated by non-curative methods and detailed follow-up was available. A panel of genitourinary pathologists reviewed the pathology of all cases. One hundred and thirty-three (7.5%) of cases were reassigned to a non-malignant diagnosis. Where possible, reasons for the initial diagnosis were given. These included severe atrophy, inflammatory induced atypia, sclerosing adenosis, atypical adenomatous hyperplasia and basal cell hyperplasia. Follow-up of these patients showed an extremely low death rate from prostatic cancer: lower than that for the Gleason combined score of five or less tumours diagnosed in this series.

CONCLUSIONS

Many morphological entities potentially mimic prostatic cancer and may be responsible for misdiagnosis in routine specimens. Continuing education in prostatic morphology and immunohistochemistry may have helped reduce this error rate.

Prediction of Indolent Prostate Cancer: Validation and Updating of a Prognostic Nomogram

PURPOSE

Screening with serum prostate specific antigen testing leads to the detection of many prostate cancers early in their natural history. Statistical models have been proposed to predict indolent cancer. We validated and updated model predictions for a screening setting.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We selected 247 patients with clinical stage T1C or T2A from the European Randomized Study on Screening for Prostate Cancer who were treated with radical prostatectomy. We validated a nomogram that had previously been developed in a clinical setting. Predictive characteristics were serum prostate specific antigen, ultrasound prostate volume, clinical stage, prostate biopsy Gleason grade, and total length of cancer and noncancer tissue in biopsy cores. Indolent cancer was defined as pathologically organ confined cancer 0.5 cc or less in volume without poorly differentiated elements. Logistic regression was used to update the previous model and examine the contribution of other potential predictors.

RESULTS

Overall 121 of 247 patients (49%) had indolent cancer, while the average predicted probability was around 20% (p <0.001). Effects of individual variables were similar to those found before and discriminative ability was adequate (AUC 0.76). An updated model was constructed, which merely recalibrated the nomogram and did not apply additional predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

Prostate cancers identified in a screening setting have a substantially higher likelihood of being indolent than those predicted by a previously proposed nomogram. However, an updated model can support patients and clinicians when the various treatment options for prostate cancer are considered.

Long-term outcome among men with conservatively treated localised prostate cancer

Optimal management of clinically localised prostate cancer presents unique challenges, because of its highly variable and often indolent natural history. There is an urgent need to predict more accurately its natural history, in order to avoid unnecessary treatment. Medical records of men diagnosed with clinically localised prostate cancer, in the UK, between 1990 and 1996 were reviewed to identify those who were conservatively treated, under age 76 years at the time of pathological diagnosis and had a baseline prostate-specific antigen (PSA) measurement. Diagnostic biopsy specimens were centrally reviewed to assign primary and secondary Gleason grades. The primary end point was death from prostate cancer and multivariate models were constructed to determine its best predictors. A total of 2333 eligible patients were identified. The most important prognostic factors were Gleason score and baseline PSA level. These factors were largely independent and together, contributed substantially more predictive power than either one alone. Clinical stage and extent of disease determined, either from needle biopsy or transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP) chips, provided some additional prognostic information. In conclusion, a model using Gleason score and PSA level identified three subgroups comprising 17, 50, and 33% of the cohort with a 10-year prostate cancer specific mortality of <10, 10-30, and >30%, respectively. This classification is a substantial improvement on previous ones using only Gleason score, but better markers are needed to predict survival more accurately in the intermediate group of patients.

Defining High Risk Prostate Cancer With Risk Groups and Nomograms: Implications for Designing Clinical Trials

PURPOSE

Death from prostate cancer is usually preceded by metastases and it usually occurs in men with high risk disease who experienced biochemical failure with a short prostate specific antigen doubling time. We developed a model for determining disease specific survival in prostate cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We used the model for defining high risk prostate cancer that was developed by the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group and combined it with the Kattan nomogram for predicting the risk of metastases. We selected 414 Radiation Therapy Oncology Group intermediate and high risk patients who were treated with external beam radiotherapy alone. Excluded were patients with low risk disease. The Kaplan-Meier product limit method was used to estimate the probability of freedom from biochemical failure, overall survival and disease specific survival.

RESULTS

A significant difference was observed in freedom from biochemical failure, disease specific survival and overall survival among the 3 tertiles created by the nomogram using the cutoff points less than 8.5%, 8.5% to 15% and greater than 15% (p <0.001, 0.0002 and 0.0003, respectively). Only the risk of metastases using the categorized nomogram score (less than 8.5% and 8.5% to 15% vs greater than 15%), not preradiotherapy prostate specific antigen or Radiation Therapy Oncology Group risk (Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 2 vs 3), was a significant predictor of disease specific and overall survival for intermediate/high risk patients and intermediate/high risk with 15% or less risk for metastases.

CONCLUSIONS

We combined a risk group stratification scheme for disease specific survival with a nomogram predicting the risk of metastases and created a model that may be useful for designing phase III trials with metastases and disease specific survival as study end points.

Management of prostate-specific antigen relapse in prostate cancer: a European Consensus

A European Consensus on the management of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) relapse in patients with prostate cancer has been formulated. The key recommendations proposed are that total PSA is the best detection tool for prostate cancer, with free and complexed PSA having a role in the PSA range 1-4 ng/ml. PSA relapse after radical prostatectomy (RP) has been defined as a value of 0.2 ng/ml with one subsequent rise, while the ASTRO definition should be used after radiotherapy. A PSA level of less than 0.4 ng/ml after hormonal therapy can be considered an indicator of a positive response. Continuous assessment using nomograms or artificial neural networks will help to determine whether progression after local therapy is distant or local, which is the basis for treatment decisions. Secondary treatment after local failure of RP should be initiated when PSA levels reach 1.0-1.5 ng/ml and salvage radiotherapy can be considered with or without hormonal therapy. Local failure after radiotherapy can be treated with a choice of high-intensity-focused ultrasound, salvage RP (only in highly selected patients), cryotherapy or external beam radiation. Treatment of distant failure involves hormonal manipulation, the type and the timing of which is based on both physician and patient preferences.

[Can nomograms derived in the U.S. applied to German patients? A study about the validation of preoperative nomograms predicting the risk of recurrence after radical prostatectomy]

In patients suffering from prostate cancer, preoperative nomograms, which predict the risk of recurrence may provide a helpful tool in regard to the counselling and planning of an appropriate therapy. The best known nomograms were published by the Baylor College of Medicine, Houston and the Harvard Medical School, Boston. We investigated these nomograms derived in the U.S. when applied to German patients. Data from 1003 patients who underwent radical prostatectomy at the University-Hospital Hamburg were used for validation. Nomogram predictions of the probability for 2-years (Harvard nomogram) and 5-years (Kattan nomogram) freedom from PSA recurrence were compared with actual follow-up recurrence data using areas under the receiver-operating-characteristic curves (AUC). The recurrence free survival after 2 and 5 years was 78% and 58%, respectively. The AUC of the Harvard nomogram predicting 2-years probability of freedom from PSA recurrence was 0.80 vs. Kattan-Nomogram 5-years prediction of 0.83. Thereby, the Kattan nomogram showed a significant higher predictive accuracy (p=0.0274). For that reason preoperative nomograms derived in the U.S. can be applied to german patients. However, we would recommend the utilization of the Kattan nomogram due to its higher predictive accuracy.

Preoperative plasma levels of transforming growth factor beta(1) strongly predict clinical outcome in patients with bladder carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Elevated local and circulating levels of transforming growth factor (TGF)-beta(1) have been associated with cancer invasion, progression, and metastasis. The authors tested the hypothesis that preoperative plasma TGF-beta(1) levels would independently predict cancer stage and prognosis in patients with transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) of the urinary bladder.

METHODS

The study group consisted of 51 patients who underwent radical cystectomy for muscle-invasive or intravesical immuno- and/or chemotherapy refractory Tis, Ta, or T1 TCC (median follow-up, 45.7 months). Preoperative plasma levels of TGF-beta(1) were measured and correlated with pathologic features and clinical outcome. Transforming growth factor-beta(1) levels also were measured in 44 healthy men without any cancer.

RESULTS

The mean preoperative plasma TGF-beta(1) level in patients who eventually developed metastases to distant (11.9 +/- 0.9 ng/mL) or regional (9.6 +/- 2.4 ng/mL) lymph nodes was significantly higher than that in patients with nonmetastatic muscle-invasive TCC (5.4 +/- 1.1 ng/mL), which, in turn, was significantly higher than that in patients with nonmetastatic Tis, Ta, or T1 TCC (4.5 +/- 1.2 ng/mL) and healthy subjects (4.5 +/- 1.2 ng/mL; P < 0.001). Preoperative plasma TGF-beta(1) level was an independent predictor of lymphovascular invasion (P = 0.002), metastases to lymph nodes (P = 0.030), disease recurrence (P = 0.009), and disease specific survival (P = 0.015). In a subgroup of patients with muscle-invasive TCC, TGF-beta(1) level was associated with disease recurrence (P = 0.005) and death from bladder carcinoma (P = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The authors confirm that plasma TGF-beta(1) levels are elevated in patients with muscle-invasive TCC before cystectomy. Transforming growth factor-beta(1) levels are highest in patients with bladder carcinoma metastatic to lymph nodes and are a strong independent predictor of disease recurrence and disease specific mortality.

Plasma levels of interleukin-6 and its soluble receptor are associated with prostate cancer progression and metastasis

OBJECTIVES

Elevated circulating levels of interleukin 6 (IL-6) have been associated with cancer metastasis. IL-6 binds either to membrane or to soluble IL-6 receptor (IL-6sR), which then induces homodimerization of gp130 that activates downstream signaling. We tested the hypothesis that preoperative plasma IL-6 and IL-6sR levels are associated with prostate cancer stage, progression, and metastasis after radical prostatectomy.

METHODS

Plasma levels of IL-6 and IL-6sR were measured in 120 consecutive patients who underwent radical prostatectomy for clinically localized prostate cancer, 44 healthy men without any cancer, 19 men with prostate cancer metastatic to the regional lymph nodes, and 10 men with prostate cancer metastatic to bone.

RESULTS

Plasma IL-6 and IL-6sR levels were highest in patients with bone metastases (P <0.001). The preoperative IL-6 and IL-6sR levels were associated with the preoperative prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level (P </=0.041), prostatectomy tumor volume (P </=0.048), and final Gleason sum (P </=0.042). The preoperative IL-6 and IL-6sR levels and biopsy Gleason sum were independent predictors of PSA progression (P </=0.029). However, in a model that included both IL-6 and IL-6sR, only IL-6sR and the biopsy Gleason sum predicted progression (P </=0.040). In patients whose disease progressed, the preoperative IL-6 and IL-6sR levels were highest in those with presumed aggressive failure (P </=0.042).

CONCLUSIONS

Plasma IL-6 and IL-6sR levels were dramatically elevated in the men with prostate cancer metastatic to bone. In patients with clinically localized prostate cancer, the preoperative plasma IL-6 and IL-6sR levels independently predicted biochemical progression after surgery, presumably because of an association with occult metastatic disease present at the time of radical prostatectomy.

Incidence, location, and significance of periprostatic and periseminal vesicle lymph nodes in prostate cancer

Pelvic lymph node metastases in prostate cancer (PCa) carry an ominous prognosis. Periprostatic/periseminal vesicle (PP/PSV) lymph nodes are present in some individuals, but their incidence and involvement by metastases are unknown. A total of 832 of 1233 (67.5%) patients who underwent radical retropubic prostatectomy for clinically localized PCa at the Methodist Hospital from 1983 to 1998 by one surgeon (P.T.S.) had whole-mount slides available for review. Of these, 92 (11.1%) had received preoperative therapy (radiation in 48 [5.8%], hormonal in 44 [5.3%]). Slides were examined with the naked eye by placing them on a white illuminated background, and any area suggestive of a lymph node in PP/PSV fat was confirmed microscopically and assessed for the presence of metastases. Thirty-seven of 832 patients (4.4%) had 39 PP/PSV lymph nodes-one bilateral, one with two ipsilateral lymph nodes, and the rest solitary. Sizes ranged from 0.7 to 4.5 mm (mean 1.8 mm). Distribution was 2 of 39 (5.1%) apical, 3 of 39 (7.7%) mid, 17 of 39 (43.6%) base, and 17 of 39 (43.6%) seminal vesicle. Five patients (0.6%) had metastatic PCa to the PP/PSV lymph nodes. All five patients were of advanced pathologic T stage [one pT3a (extraprostatic extension) and four pT3b (seminal vesicle invasion)]. Only two of those five (40%) had metastases (all ipsilateral) to pelvic lymph nodes. In three of five (60%) the metastases were isolated to the PP/PSV lymph nodes. Metastases were to the lymph nodes in the periseminal vesicle fat in four of five (80%) of the cases and in the fat surrounding the base of the prostate in one of five (20%). Four of five (80%) patients recurred. Histologic grade (Gleason score), tumor volume, and failure (recurrence) rates were significantly different between the five patients with metastases and the 32 patients without metastases to the PP/PSV lymph nodes (p <0.0001, p <0.0001, and p = 0.005, respectively). However, there was no evidence that an individual patient's probability of having a PP/PSV lymph node increased with resection of the neurovascular bundle (p = 0.7698). PP/PSV lymph nodes are uncommon, but based upon these limited data, it appears that patients with metastases limited to PP/PSV lymph nodes have a poor prognosis (similar to pelvic lymph node metastases) and should be included in the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Staging Manual to indicate "N1" if positive for metastases.

Pretreatment nomogram for predicting freedom from recurrence after permanent prostate brachytherapy in prostate cancer

OBJECTIVES

To develop a prognostic nomogram to predict the freedom from recurrence for patients treated with permanent prostate brachytherapy for localized prostate cancer.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of 920 patients treated with permanent prostate brachytherapy between 1992 and 2000. The clinical parameters included clinical stage, biopsy Gleason sum, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen (PSA) value, and administration of external beam radiation. Patients who received neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy were excluded. Failure was defined as any post-treatment administration of androgen deprivation, clinical relapse, or biochemical failure, defined as three PSA rises. Patients with fewer than three PSA rises were censored at the time of the first PSA rise. Data from two outside institutions served as validation.

RESULTS

A nomogram that predicts the probability of remaining free from biochemical recurrence for 5 years after brachytherapy without adjuvant hormonal therapy was developed using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. External validation revealed a concordance index of 0.61 to 0.64, and calibration of the nomogram suggested confidence limits of +5% to -30%.

CONCLUSIONS

The pretreatment nomogram we developed may be useful to physicians and patients in estimating the probability of successful treatment 5 years after brachytherapy for clinically localized prostate cancer.

Potency after permanent prostate brachytherapy for localized prostate cancer

PURPOSE

The evaluation of potency preservation after treatment of localized prostate cancer with transperineal permanent prostate brachytherapy (PPB) and the efficacy of sildenafil were studied.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

This study comprised 482 patients who were able to maintain an erection suitable for intercourse before treatment from a cohort of 1166 patients with clinically localized prostate cancer treated with PPB. All patients have been followed prospectively, and actuarial analysis was performed to assess potency preservation over time. Patients treated with sildenafil were evaluated as to its efficacy.

RESULTS

The median follow-up of this cohort was 34 months (6--92), with a median age of 68 years (47--80). Potency was preserved in 311 of the 482 patients, with a 5-year actuarial potency rate of 52.7%. The 5-year actuarial potency rate for patients treated with PPB as monotherapy was 76%, and, for those treated with combination external beam radiotherapy (EBT) + PPB, 56% (p = 0.08). Patients treated with neoadjuvant androgen deprivation (NAAD) + PPB had a 5-year potency rate of 52%, whereas those with combination EBT + PPB + NAAD had a potency rate of 29% (p = 0.13). Cox regression analysis identified that pretreatment use of NAAD and patient age predicted for impotence (p = 0.0001 and 0.04, respectively). Of 84 patients treated with sildenafil, 52 had a successful outcome (62%). The response to sildenafil was significantly better in those patients not treated with NAAD (p = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

The actuarial potency rates at 5 years for patients treated with PPB are lower than generally acknowledged, except for those patients treated with PPB as monotherapy. Patients who received sildenafil exhibited improved potency in a majority of cases.

Prognostic significance of the diameter of perineural invasion in radical prostatectomy specimens

We assessed whether the quantification of cancer invasion into the perineural space influences the prognosis of patients treated with radical prostatectomy. We conducted a retrospective study of clinical and pathologic features in 640 consecutive patients with clinical stage Tla-T3bNXM0 prostate cancer who were treated with radical retropubic prostatectomy by the same surgeon between 1989 and 1995. None had received preoperative hormonal therapy or radiotherapy. Detailed pathologic analysis, including the presence and maximum diameter of perineural invasion (PNI), was performed by 2 pathologists. Treatment failure was defined as either a serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level > 0.4 ng/mL and rising or initiation of adjuvant therapy. The median follow-up time was 48 months (range, 1 to 111 months). Overall, PNI was detected in 477 patients (75%). The progression-free 5-year probability rate after prostatectomy for patients with PNI was 70% +/- 3% compared with 94% +/- 2% for patients without PNI (P <.001). The mere presence of PNI was not an independent predictor of progression in a Cox proportional hazards analysis when the other established prognostic factors (serum PSA level, pathologic stage, surgical margin, and tumor volume) were considered. However, the increasing diameter of the largest focus of PNI was strongly associated with other established prognostic factors and the probability of progression after radical prostatectomy. Although little adverse effect in patients with PNI < 0.25 mm was seen 5 years after surgery, those with a PNI diameter of 0.25 to 0.5 mm were significantly (P <.001) less likely to remain free of progression; only 36% of those with PNI of 0.5 to 0.75 mm (P <.001) and 14% of those with PNI > or =0.75 mm (P =.002) were free of progression. In a Cox proportional hazard analysis, the PNI diameter was an independent predictor of prognosis. These results support that the measurement of the PNI diameter, easily recorded from prostatectomy specimens, could add important information to the prognosis of prostate cancer patients. Controversy regarding the significance of PNI may result from the lack of quantitative assessment of PNI in previous studies.

A postoperative prognostic nomogram for renal cell carcinoma

PURPOSE

Few published studies have combined prognostic factors to predict the likelihood of recurrence after surgery for renal cell carcinoma. We developed a nomogram for this purpose.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

With Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, we modeled pathological data and disease followup for 601 patients with renal cell carcinoma who were treated with nephrectomy. Predictor variables were patient symptoms, including incidental, local or systemic, histology, including chromophobe, papillary or conventional, tumor size, and pathological stage. Treatment failure was recorded when there was either clinical evidence of disease recurrence or death from disease. Validation was performed with a statistical (bootstrapping) technique.

RESULTS

Disease recurrence was noted in 66 of the 601 patients, and those in whom treatment was successful had a median and maximum followup of 40 and 123 months, respectively. The 5-year probability of freedom from failure for the patient cohort was 86% (95% confidence interval 82 to 89). With statistical validation, predictions by the nomogram appeared accurate and discriminating with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, that is a comparison of the predicted probability with the actual outcome of 0.74.

CONCLUSIONS

A nomogram has been developed that can be used to predict the 5-year probability of treatment failure among patients with newly diagnosed renal cell carcinoma. The nomogram may be useful for patient counseling, clinical trial design and patient followup planning.

Preoperative plasma levels of transforming growth factor beta(1) (TGF-beta(1)) strongly predict progression in patients undergoing radical prostatectomy

PURPOSE

Elevated local and circulating levels of transforming growth factor beta(1) (TGF-beta(1)) have been associated with prostate cancer invasion and metastasis. We tested the hypothesis that preoperative plasma TGF-beta(1) levels would independently predict cancer stage and prognosis in patients who undergo radical prostatectomy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study group consisted of 120 consecutive patients who underwent radical prostatectomy for clinically localized prostate cancer (median follow-up, 53.8 months). Preoperative plasma levels of TGF-beta(1) were measured and correlated with pathologic parameters and clinical outcomes. TGF-beta(1) levels also were measured in 44 healthy men without cancer, in 19 men with prostate cancer metastatic to regional lymph nodes, and in 10 men with prostate cancer metastatic to bone.

RESULTS

Plasma TGF-beta(1) levels in patients with lymph node metastases (14.2 +/- 2.6 ng/mL) and bone metastases (15.5 +/- 2.4 ng/mL) were higher than those in radical prostatectomy patients (5.2 +/- 1.3 ng/mL) and healthy subjects (4.5 +/- 1.2 ng/mL) (P <.001). In a preoperative analysis, preoperative plasma TGF-beta(1) level and biopsy Gleason sum both were predictors of organ-confined disease (P =.006 and P =.006, respectively) and PSA progression (P <.001 and P =.021, respectively). In a postoperative multivariate analysis, preoperative plasma TGF-beta(1) level, pathologic Gleason sum, and surgical margin status were predictors of PSA progression (P =.020,P =.020, and P =.022, respectively). In patients who progressed, preoperative plasma TGF-beta(1) levels were higher in those with presumed distant compared with local-only failure (P =.019).

CONCLUSION

Plasma TGF-beta(1) levels are markedly elevated in men with prostate cancer metastatic to regional lymph nodes and bone. In men without clinical or pathologic evidence of metastases, the preoperative plasma TGF-beta(1) level is a strong predictor of biochemical progression after surgery, presumably because of an association with occult metastatic disease present at the time of radical prostatectomy.

Assessing quality of life in men with clinically localized prostate cancer: development of a new instrument for use in multiple settings

BACKGROUND

Quality of life in prostate cancer patients with clinically localized disease has become the focus of increasing attention over the past decade. However, few instruments have been developed and validated to assess quality of life specifically in this patient population.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this investigation was to create a comprehensive, multi-scale quality of life instrument that can be tailored to the needs of the clinician/investigator in multiple settings. DESIGN, SUBJECTS, AND MEASURES: Patients diagnosed with clinically localized prostate cancer were mailed a questionnaire consisting of new and previously validated quality of life items and ancillary scales. Data from returned questionnaires were analyzed and used to create a multiscale instrument that assesses the effects of treatment and disease on urinary, sexual, and bowel domains, supplemented by a scale assessing anxiety over disease course/effectiveness of treatment. The instrument was then mailed to a second sample of prostate cancer patients once and then again two weeks later to assess test retest reliability. To assess feasibility in clinical settings, the instrument was self-administered to a third patient sample during a urology clinic visit.

RESULTS

All scales exhibited good internal consistency and test retest reliability, convergent and discriminant validity, and significant correlations with disease specific, generic health-related, and global measures of quality of life. Men with greater physiologic impairment reported more limitations in role activities and more bother. Scales were also able to differentiate patients undergoing different therapies. All scales exhibited negligible correlations with a measure of socially desirable responding. Additionally, the instrument proved feasible when used as a self-administered questionnaire in a clinical setting.

CONCLUSIONS

The current instrument possesses brief multi-item scales that can be successfully self-administered in multiple settings. The instrument is flexible, relatively quick, psychometrically reliable and valid, and permits a more comprehensive assessment of patients' quality of life.

Primary Gleason pattern as a predictor of disease progression in gleason score 7 prostate cancer: a multivariate analysis of 823 men treated with radical prostatectomy

Gleason score (GS) is a powerful predictor of disease progression in men with prostate cancer (PCa). The majority of clinically localized prostate cancers, however, are moderately (GS5/6) or moderate to poorly (GS7) differentiated tumors with indeterminate prognosis. Differences in disease progression between patients with GS5/6 and GS7 tumors suggest the presence of any component of high-grade tumor (Gleason pattern [GP] 4/5) worsens prognosis markedly. Indeed, McNeal et al. have shown that quantification of GP4/5 provides prognostic information beyond the standard GS. Few investigators have analyzed whether primary and secondary GPs are important prognostically within GS7 PCa. All 823 whole-mount radical prostatectomy specimens with GS7 from a single surgeon (P.T.S.) were analyzed. Tumors were either 3+4 or 4+3, and primary GP was assigned by the same pathologist (T.M.W.). A total of 643 patients with 3+4 tumors and 180 patients with 4+3 tumors were studied. Statistical analysis using the log-rank test showed a significant difference in recurrence-free survival between patients with primary GP4 and those with GP3 (p <0.0001). However, in multivariate analysis with preoperative prostate-specific antigen, total tumor volume, surgical margin status, and the presence or absence of seminal vesicle involvement, extraprostatic extension, and lymph node metastasis, the primary GP did not retain independent significance (p = 0.0557). GS7 PCa is a heterogeneous group of tumors. In this cohort of men with GS7 tumors treated by radical retropubic prostatectomy, primary GP showed a significant correlation with other histologic and clinical predictors of disease progression; however, it was not independently predictive of disease progression in multivariate analysis (p = 0.76).

E-cadherin immunostaining of bladder transitional cell carcinoma, carcinoma in situ and lymph node metastases with long-term followup

PURPOSE

We analyze the expression of E-cadherin in bladder transitional cell carcinoma, areas of carcinoma in situ and lymph node metastases, and determine the value of E-cadherin immunoreactivity for predicting disease progression and survival of patients with bladder transitional cell carcinoma.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study group consisted of 77 patients who underwent radical cystectomy. Formalin fixed paraffin sections were processed with a hot, citric acid antigen retrieval method, followed by immunostaining with anti-E-cadherin monoclonal antibody and a standard avidin biotin complex technique. E-cadherin expression was also evaluated in carcinoma in situ sections (18) and in regional lymph node metastases (17).

RESULTS

Loss of normal membrane E-cadherin immunoreactivity was found in 59 (77%) patients. Abnormal expression of E-cadherin was associated with muscle invasive disease (p = 0.010) and lymph node metastasis (p = 0.044). Of the 18 carcinoma in situ specimens 15 (83%) and of the 17 metastatic lymph nodes 13 (76%) had abnormal E-cadherin expression. Concordance rates of E-cadherin status in carcinoma in situ areas and metastatic lymph nodes with the primary tumors were 85% and 88%, respectively. At a median followup of 128 months, abnormal E-cadherin expression was significantly associated with disease progression (p = 0.0219) and bladder cancer specific survival (p = 0.037). E-cadherin expression and pathological stage but not grade were independent predictors of disease progression (p = 0.042, 0.047 and 0.158, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In bladder cancer altered E-cadherin expression is associated with the degree of invasiveness, lymph node metastasis and increased risk of death from bladder cancer. Furthermore, E-cadherin status is an independent predictor of disease progression in patients treated with cystectomy for transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder.

A catalog of prostate cancer nomograms

PURPOSE

Prediction is central to the management of prostate cancer. Nomograms are devices that make predictions. We organized many nomograms for prostate cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using MEDLINE a literature search was performed on prostate cancer nomograms from January 1966 to February 2000. We recorded input variables, prediction form, the number of patients used to develop the nomogram and the outcome being predicted. We also recorded the accuracy measures reported by the original authors and whether the nomograms have withstood validation. In addition, we noted whether the nomograms were proprietary or in the public domain. Each nomogram was classified into patient clinical disease state and the outcome being predicted.

RESULTS

The literature search generated 42 published nomograms that may be applied to patients in various clinical stages of disease. Of the 42 nomograms only 18 had undergone validation, of which 2 partially failed. Few nomograms have been compared for predictive superiority and none appears to have been compared with clinical judgment alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with prostate cancer need accurate predictions. Prognostic nomograms are available for many clinical states and outcomes, and may provide the most accurate predictions currently available. Selection among them and progress in this field are hampered by the lack of comparisons for predictive accuracy.

Prediction of response to salvage radiation therapy in patients with prostate cancer recurrence after radical prostatectomy

PURPOSE

To identify factors predictive of local recurrence as defined by a complete response to salvage radiation therapy in patients whose disease recurs after radical prostatectomy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Ninety-five patients with recurrence after radical prostatectomy who were evaluated by prostatic fossa biopsies, and a subset of 49 of these patients treated with radiation for control of presumed or biopsy-proven local recurrence, were studied.

RESULTS

Biopsies were positive in 40 (42%) of the 95 biopsied patients. Multivariate analysis revealed that prebiopsy prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, postrecurrence PSA doubling time, and positive digital rectal examination (DRE) of the prostatic fossa were all statistically significant predictors of a positive biopsy. For the 49 patients subsequently treated with salvage radiation therapy, the overall actuarial 3- and 5-year PSA relapse-free probabilities were 43% and 24%, respectively. Univariate analysis showed no differences in the PSA relapse-free probabilities associated with any pathologic features of the radical prostatectomy specimen, biopsy confirmation of local recurrence, or DRE of the prostatic fossa. In multivariate analysis, controlling for all other variables, preradiation PSA and postrecurrence PSA doubling time measured before radiation were the only statistically significant predictors of outcome.

CONCLUSION

DRE of the prostatic fossa, prebiopsy PSA, and postrecurrence PSA doubling time predict which patients will have biopsy-proven local recurrence. However, response to salvage radiation therapy is associated with postrecurrence PSA doubling time and with preradiation PSA level only. DRE of the prostatic fossa and biopsy confirmation of local recurrence are not associated with salvage radiation outcome.

Time trade-off utility modified to accommodate degenerative and life-threatening conditions

The time trade-off is often argued to be the preferred utility assessment method. When measuring current health in its classic form, it involves a comparison of two certainties: perfect health and current health, each for a fixed period of time and followed by death. This makes the time trade-off insensitive to patient fears regarding premature death or worsening health. We suggest the classic time trade-off be modified to include subjective rather than actuarial life expectancy, and relaxation of the current health option to include uncertainty in quantity and quality of life. We illustrate the mechanics of this modified time trade-off and report a preliminary application to 122 men presenting to a prostate cancer screening program. Further analysis of this modified time trade-off appears warranted.

Detection of metastatic prostate cancer using a splice variant-specific reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction assay for human glandular kallikrein

We developed a highly sensitive splice variant-specific reverse transcriptase-PCR (RT-PCR) assay for human glandular kallikrein (hK2) mRNA and tested its ability to detect metastatic disease in men with clinically localized prostate cancer. An RT-PCR assay using primers spanning intron IV and including a significant portion of the 3' untranslated region of the hKLK2 gene, with maximum nonhomology to both hK1 and hK3, was developed. The limit of detection of the assay was five copies of hK2 cDNA and one LNCaP cell in 10(9) lymphoblasts. RT-PCR-hK2 was performed on preoperative peripheral blood specimens from 228 consecutive radical prostatectomy patients as well as 7 metastatic prostate cancer patients and 14 healthy men without prostate cancer. This new RT-PCR-hK2 assay amplifies two distinct fragments. The larger fragment (hK2-U) is approximately 680 bp in length and corresponds to the amplified product of a previously reported splice variant in the splice donor site of intron IV in the hKLK2 gene. The smaller fragment (hK2-L) is approximately 643 bp in length and corresponds to the amplified product of the native hK2 mRNA. Whereas the RT-PCR-hK2-L assay was positive in 71% of our patients with metastatic prostate cancer, 14% of healthy control men also tested positive. By univariate (P = 0.028) and multivariate (P = 0.0269) analysis, which controlled for preoperative PSA, clinical stage, and biopsy Gleason score, RT-PCR-hK2-L status added prognostic information to the prediction of lymph node-positive disease. We have developed a new RT-PCR assay which demonstrates a high sensitivity for detecting hK2 mRNA. Preoperative RT-PCR-hK2-L status helps predict pathological lymph node positivity in patients with clinically localized prostate cancer.

Factors predicting recovery of erections after radical prostatectomy

PURPOSE

Because preservation of functioning penile erections is a major concern for many patients considering treatment for localized prostate cancer, we analyzed various factors determined before and after radical retropubic prostatectomy to identify those significantly associated with recovery of erectile function.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Our prospective database of patients undergoing pelvic lymphadenectomy and radical retropubic prostatectomy was used to determine factors predictive of erection recovery after radical prostatectomy. The study included 314 consecutive men with prostate cancer treated with radical retropubic prostatectomy between November 1993 and December 1996. Preoperative potency satisfactory for intercourse and degree of neurovascular bundle preservation during the operation were documented.

RESULTS

Patient age, preoperative potency status and extent of neurovascular bundle preservation but not pathological stage were predictive of potency recovery after radical prostatectomy. At 3 years after the operation 76% of men younger than age 60 years with full erections preoperatively who had bilateral neurovascular bundle preservation would be expected to regain erections sufficient for intercourse. Compared to the younger men, those 60 to 65 years old were only 56% (95% confidence interval [CI] 37 to 84) and those older than 65 years were 47% (95% CI 30 to 73) as likely to recover potency. Patients with recently diminished erections were only 63% (95% CI 38 to 100) as likely to recover potency as men with full erections preoperatively, and those with partial erections were only 47% (95% CI 23 to 96) as likely to recover potency. Resection of 1 neurovascular bundle reduced the chance of recovery to 25% (95% CI 10 to 61) compared to preserving both nerves.

CONCLUSIONS

Knowledge of preoperative erectile function and patient age before the operation and the degree of neurovascular bundle preservation afterward may aid in patient counseling regarding potency recovery after radical prostatectomy.

The definition of biochemical failure in patients treated with definitive radiotherapy

PURPOSE

The American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology (ASTRO) published a definition for biochemical failure following treatment of prostate cancer. Others have noted difficulties with interpreting this definition and recommended modifications to accommodate special recurrence patterns. We have compared various modifications to the original ASTRO definition on our series of 1213 patients treated with transperineal permanent prostate brachytherapy.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

The ASTRO modifications we considered adjusted for (1) early censoring of nonrecurrent patients with rising prostate-specific antigen levels (PSA), (2) cumulative rather than consecutive rises (without a decrease) as evidence of recurrence, (3) both of the above, and (4) waiting 2 years before data analysis. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to compute the effects on recurrence rate for patients treated with and without neoadjuvant hormones.

RESULTS

With the original ASTRO definition, freedom from recurrence in our series of men who did not receive neoadjuvant hormones was 83% at 4 years. All of the modifications considered had statistically insignificant effects on freedom from recurrence rates, varying from 80% to 83% at 4 years. Patients treated with neoadjuvant hormones also showed very little sensitivity to the recurrence definition employed.

CONCLUSION

Early censoring of equivocal patients and counting cumulative rather than consecutive rises in PSA (without a decrease) had little empiric effect on the ASTRO recurrence rates. However, we favor the addition of both these modifications to the ASTRO definition on conceptual grounds for evaluating patients following any modality (radiation or surgery), whereby a trend over multiple PSA values is used to judge failure.

Validation of Partin tables for predicting pathological stage of clinically localized prostate cancer

PURPOSE

The accurate prediction of pathological stage of prostate cancer using preoperative factors is a critical aspect of treatment. In 1997 Partin et al published tables predicting pathological stage using clinical stage, Gleason score and prostate specific antigen (PSA). We tested the validity of the Partin tables.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From 1990 to 1996 inclusively 5,780 patients underwent bilateral pelvic lymphadenectomy and radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer at the Mayo Clinic. However, only 2,475 of these patients met all inclusion criteria of no preoperative treatment, known biopsy Gleason score, available preoperative PSA done either before biopsy or more than 28 days after biopsy and clinical stage T1, T2 or T3a. Among the 2,475 patients 15 had positive lymph nodes and planned prostatectomy was abandoned. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve area, observed and predicted Partin rates of each pathological stage, and positive and negative predictive values were used to compare the Mayo study to the Partin tables.

RESULTS

The distribution of pathological stage was organ confined in 67% of Mayo cases versus 48% in the Partin study, extracapsular without seminal vesicle or node involvement in 18% versus 40%, seminal vesicle involvement without nodes in 9% versus 7% and were positive nodes in 6% versus 5%. Using the predicted probabilities of Partin et al the ROC curve area for predicted node positive disease was 0.84 for Mayo cases compared to an estimated 0. 82 in the Partin series. The ROC curve area for predicting organ confined cancer was 0.76 for the Mayo Clinic compared to an estimated 0.73 for the Partin series. The observed rates of node positive disease were similar to those predicted (Partin) based on clinical stage, PSA and Gleason score. For organ confined disease Mayo rates were consistently higher than those predicted from the Partin series using a cut point of 0.50 or greater. Positive and negative predictive values were 0.83 and 0.49 versus 0.63 and 0.70 for the Mayo Clinic and Partin series.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides strong evidence that sensitivity and specificity of the Partin tables for external clinical sites are similar to what was reported.

Pretreatment nomogram for predicting the outcome of three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy in prostate cancer

PURPOSE

Several studies have defined risk groups for predicting the outcome after external-beam radiotherapy of localized prostate cancer. However, most models formed patient risk groups, and none of these models considers radiation dose as a predictor variable. The purpose of this study was to develop a nomogram to improve the accuracy of predicting outcome after three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study was a retrospective, nonrandomized analysis of patients treated at the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center between 1988 and 1998. Clinical parameters of the 1,042 patients included stage, biopsy Gleason score, pretreatment serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, whether neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy was administered, and the radiation dose delivered. Biochemical (PSA) treatment failure was scored when three consecutive rises of serum PSA occurred. A nomogram, which predicts the probability of remaining free from biochemical recurrence for 5 years, was validated internally on this data set using a bootstrapping method and externally using a cohort of patients treated at the Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH.

RESULTS

When predicting outcomes for patients in the validation data set from the Cleveland Clinic, the nomogram had a Somers' D rank correlation between predicted and observed failure times of 0.52. Predictions from this nomogram were more accurate (P<.0001) than the best of seven published risk stratification systems, which achieved a Somers' D coefficient of 0.47.

CONCLUSION

The development process illustrated here produced a nomogram that seems to predict more accurately than other available systems and may be useful for treatment selection by both physicians and patients.

Determining the area under the ROC curve for a binary diagnostic test

The authors provide a simple calculation for the unbiased estimation of the area under the ROC curve for a binary diagnostic test or a continuously valued test result that is effectively used in a binary way. The formula described can be used to interpret the discriminative ability of a diagnostic test.

In vivo adenovirus-mediated suicide gene therapy of orthotopic bladder cancer

These studies were undertaken to determine the feasibility, safety, and efficacy of suicide gene therapy using adenoviral-mediated herpes simplex virus thymidine kinase (ADV/RSV-tk) and the prodrug ganciclovir (GCV) in an orthotopic murine bladder cancer model. We utilized a replication-defective adenoviral construct containing the beta-galactosidase gene as a control and the herpes simplex virus thymidine kinase gene as the therapeutic vector under the transcription control of the Rous sarcoma virus long terminal repeat promoter. Intravesically created, orthotopic bladder tumors were established in syngeneic C3H/He female mice. India ink injection and beta-galactosidase studies were performed to determine if transurethral administration, direct tumor injection, or the combination was the most efficient route of virus administration. Optimal dosing of ADV/RSV-tk was determined by direct tumor injection with increasing viral doses and treatment with GCV. Treatment efficacy, long-term survival, and toxicity were determined in separate but similar controlled experiments. Growth curve studies demonstrated reliable tumor formation by 14 days. Direct transvesical tumor injection resulted in the best distribution and intratumor gene expression as measured by X-gal staining. Dose-ranging experiments demonstrated an optimal viral dose of 5 x 10(8) plaque-forming units and a greater than twofold reduction in tumor growth for the animals treated with ADV/RSV-tk compared to controls. Efficacy studies demonstrated a greater than threefold reduction in tumor growth. No clinical or gross pathologic toxicity was detected. Long-term survival results suggested a survival benefit for the treatment animals compared to controls. We conclude that ADV/RSV-tk in combination with GCV provides effective therapy for orthotopic murine bladder cancer by significantly inhibiting tumor growth with limited toxicity to the host. These data provide further support for testing this suicide gene therapy strategy in human Phase I trials.

Correlation of preoperative plasma IGF-I levels with pathologic parameters and progression in patients undergoing radical prostatectomy

OBJECTIVES

To test whether preoperative insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-I levels could predict pathologic stage and prognosis of prostate cancer in patients undergoing radical prostatectomy.

METHODS

The study group consisted of 120 consecutive patients who underwent radical prostatectomy for clinically localized prostate cancer. Preoperative plasma IGF-I levels were measured using the DSL-IGF-I Elisa assay. Surgically removed prostate specimens were analyzed pathologically, using a whole-mount step-section technique. Preoperative plasma IGF-I levels were compared with final pathologic parameters and with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) progression-free survival. Preoperative IGF-I levels in this cohort were also compared with IGF-I levels measured in 20 healthy men without any cancer and in 10 men with untreated, metastatic prostate cancer.

RESULTS

Plasma IGF-I levels predicted neither organ-confined disease (P = 0.5611) nor the risk of PSA progression (P = 0.8125) at a median follow-up of 48.6 months after prostatectomy. Furthermore, IGF-I levels did not correlate with preoperative PSA level (P = 0. 2811) or final Gleason score (P = 0.4906). IGF-I levels in radical prostatectomy patients were not significantly higher than those in healthy subjects or in patients with metastatic disease (mean 156.7 +/- 66 ng/mL, 148.6 +/- 49 ng/mL, and 148.6 +/- 93 ng/mL, respectively; P = 0.8442).

CONCLUSIONS

Circulating IGF-I levels may predict the future risk of developing prostate cancer, but our study found no association with other established markers of biologically aggressive disease or with disease progression in patients with clinically localized prostate cancer.

Machine learning for survival analysis: a case study on recurrence of prostate cancer

Machine learning techniques have recently received considerable attention, especially when used for the construction of prediction models from data. Despite their potential advantages over standard statistical methods, like their ability to model non-linear relationships and construct symbolic and interpretable models, their applications to survival analysis are at best rare, primarily because of the difficulty to appropriately handle censored data. In this paper we propose a schema that enables the use of classification methods--including machine learning classifiers--for survival analysis. To appropriately consider the follow-up time and censoring, we propose a technique that, for the patients for which the event did not occur and have short follow-up times, estimates their probability of event and assigns them a distribution of outcome accordingly. Since most machine learning techniques do not deal with outcome distributions, the schema is implemented using weighted examples. To show the utility of the proposed technique, we investigate a particular problem of building prognostic models for prostate cancer recurrence, where the sole prediction of the probability of event (and not its probability dependency on time) is of interest. A case study on preoperative and postoperative prostate cancer recurrence prediction shows that by incorporating this weighting technique the machine learning tools stand beside modern statistical methods and may, by inducing symbolic recurrence models, provide further insight to relationships within the modeled data.

Lymphovascular invasion as a predictor of disease progression in prostate cancer

The biologic heterogeneity of prostate cancer (PCa) is evident from the large discrepancy between incidence rates and disease progression and tumor-related deaths. One of the challenges in treating patients with PCa lies in developing nomograms to identify patients who might benefit from adjuvant therapies. Lymphovascular invasion (LVI) is among the variables in PCa recommended to be reported by the Cancer Committee of the College of American Pathologists (CAP), yet few studies have evaluated the prognostic significance and prevalence of LVI in PCa. In the present study, whole-mount specimens from 263 patients with pT3N0 PCa treated by radical prostatectomy by a single surgeon were evaluated for the presence, location, and number of foci of LVI. Foci of LVI were identified in 91 patients. In cases with LVI the number of foci ranged from 1 to 40 with the majority of patients having 1 or 2 foci. LVI was found to be a significant predictor of disease progression in univariate analysis (p <0.0001) and was significantly related to Gleason sum (p <0.001), extra prostatic extension (focal vs established; p = 0.033), and seminal vesicle involvement (p <0.001). Furthermore, in multivariate analysis, LVI was a significant independent predictor of disease progression as well (p = 0.0014). These findings support the CAP recommendations and provide merit for the inclusion of LVI in nomograms to predict disease recurrence in PCa.

Naive Bayesian-based nomogram for prediction of prostate cancer recurrence

This paper introduces a schema with naive-Bayesian classifier and patient weighting technique to develop a prostate cancer recurrence prediction model from patient data. We propose the graphical presentation of naive-Bayesian classifier with a nomogram, which can be used both for prediction or can provide means to data analysis. The resulting model was experimentally evaluated; the results were favorable both in terms of interpretability and predictive accuracy.

A calcitriol analogue, EB1089, inhibits the growth of LNCaP tumors in nude mice

Limited options for the treatment of prostate cancer have spurred the search for new therapies. One innovative approach is the use of 1alpha,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 (calcitriol) analogues to inhibit cancer growth. We demonstrate here that the calcitriol analogue, EB1089, extensively inhibits the growth of LNCaP prostate cancer cells in culture and causes the cells to both accumulate in G0-G1 and undergo apoptosis. Importantly, we found that EB1089 inhibits the growth of LNCaP tumor xenografts in nude mice. Because of these antiproliferative properties in vivo, EB1089 is a potential new therapeutic agent for the treatment of prostate cancer.