The emergence of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico requires a binational One Health approach

Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is an international and quintessential One Health problem. This paper synthesizes recent knowledge in One Health, binational RMSF concerns, and veterinary and human medical perspectives to this fatal, reemerging problem. RMSF, a life-threatening tick-borne disease caused by the bacterium Rickettsia rickettsii, emerged during the first decade of the 21st century in impoverished communities in the southwestern US and northern Mexico. Lack of an index of suspicion, delay in diagnosis, and delayed initiation of antibiotic treatment contribute to fatality. Campaigns targeting dog neutering, restraint to residents' properties, and on-dog and on-premises treatment with acaricides temporarily reduce prevalence but are often untenable economically. Contemporary Mexican RMSF is hyperendemic in small communities and cities, whereas epidemics occur in the western US primarily in small tribal communities. In in both locations, the epidemics are fueled by free-roaming dogs and massive brown dog tick populations. In the US, RMSF has a case fatality rate of 5% to 7%; among thousands of annual cases in Mexico, case fatality often exceeds 30%.1,2 Numerous case patients in US border states have recent travel histories to northern Mexico. Veterinarians and physicians should alert the public to RMSF risk, methods of prevention, and the importance of urgent treatment with doxycycline if symptomatic. One Health professionals contribute ideas to manage ticks and rickettsial disease and provide broad education for the public and medical professionals. Novel management approaches include vaccine development and deployment, acaricide resistance monitoring, and modeling to guide targeted dog population management and other interventions.

Roaming Dogs, Intense Brown Dog Tick Infestation, and Emerging Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever in Tijuana, México

A two decades-long epidemic of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in northern México reached the U.S. border city of Tijuana in 2021. Cases were near the city periphery in marginalized areas, some lacking infrastructure such as streets or utilities. We worked in the three census areas where human cases were reported and in 12 additional control Áreas Geoestadisticas Básicas. There were dogs, the primary tick host and Rickettsia rickettsii reservoir, in 76% of homes, with 2.2 owned dogs per home on average, approximately equal numbers of roaming dogs were seen, and 46.2% of owned dogs were allowed to roam in the street. Sixty-eight percent of people had heard of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF), and 35% self-reported tick infestation, including 19% of homes without dogs. Ticks appeared to move among houses of adjacent neighbors. Of 191 examined dogs, 61.8% were tick-infested, with 6-fold increased odds if they were allowed to roam. Although no dogs were Rickettsia polymerase chain reaction-positive, we found one R. rickettsii- and 11 Rickettsia massiliae-infected ticks. The rickettsial IgG seroprevalence by immunofluorescence antibody assay was 76.4%, associated with unhealthy body condition, adults, dogs with >10 ticks, more dogs being seen in the area, and dogs being permitted in the street. Insufficient medical and canine management resources have contributed to a case fatality rate of RMSF that has exceeded 50% in areas. High canine seroprevalence suggests risks to people and dogs; unfortunately, herd immunity is impeded by high turnover in the canine population owing to the birth of puppies and high death rates. Binational One Health workers should monitor disease spread, enact canine population management and tick eradication, and provide prevention, diagnostic, and treatment support.

Rickettsia species identified in adult, host-seeking Dermacentor occidentalis (Acari: Ixodidae) from Baja California, Mexico, and Oregon and Washington, United States

The Pacific Coast tick (Dermacentor occidentalis Marx, 1892) is a frequently encountered and commonly reported human-biting tick species that has been recorded from most of California and parts of southwestern Oregon, southcentral Washington, and northwestern Mexico. Although previous investigators have surveyed populations of D. occidentalis for the presence of Rickettsia species across several regions of California, populations of this tick have not been surveyed heretofore for rickettsiae from Baja California, Oregon, or Washington. We evaluated 1,367 host-seeking, D. occidentalis adults collected from 2015 to 2022 by flagging vegetation at multiple sites in Baja California, Mexico, and Oregon and Washington, United States, using genus- and species-specific assays for spotted fever group rickettsiae. DNA of Rickettsia 364D, R. bellii, and R. tillamookensis was not detected in specimens from these regions. DNA of R. rhipicephali was detected in D. occidentalis specimens obtained from Ensenada Municipality in Baja California and southwestern Oregon, but not from Washington. All ompA sequences of R. rhipichephali that were amplified from individual ticks in southwestern Oregon were represented by a single genotype. DNA of the Ixodes pacificus rickettsial endosymbiont was amplified from specimens collected in southwestern Oregon and Klickitat County, Washington; to the best of our knowledge, this Rickettsia species has never been identified in D. occidentalis. Collectively, these data are consistent with a relatively recent introduction of Pacific Coast ticks in the northernmost extension of its recognized range.

Genomic surveillance reveals dynamic shifts in the connectivity of COVID-19 epidemics

The maturation of genomic surveillance in the past decade has enabled tracking of the emergence and spread of epidemics at an unprecedented level. During the COVID-19 pandemic, for example, genomic data revealed that local epidemics varied considerably in the frequency of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) lineage importation and persistence, likely due to a combination of COVID-19 restrictions and changing connectivity. Here, we show that local COVID-19 epidemics are driven by regional transmission, including across international boundaries, but can become increasingly connected to distant locations following the relaxation of public health interventions. By integrating genomic, mobility, and epidemiological data, we find abundant transmission occurring between both adjacent and distant locations, supported by dynamic mobility patterns. We find that changing connectivity significantly influences local COVID-19 incidence. Our findings demonstrate a complex meaning of "local" when investigating connected epidemics and emphasize the importance of collaborative interventions for pandemic prevention and mitigation.

Rickettsial antibodies and Rickettsia bellii detection in lagomorphs and their ectoparasites in Northern Baja California, Mexico

Lagomorphs-principally rabbits and hares-have been implicated as hosts for vectors and reservoirs for pathogens associated with multiple rickettsial diseases. Western North America is home to diverse rickettsial pathogens which circulate among multiple wild and domestic hosts and tick and flea vectors. The purpose of this study was to assess lagomorphs and their ectoparasites in 2 locations in northern Baja California, Mexico, for exposure to and infection with rickettsial organisms. In total, 55 desert cottontail rabbits (Sylvilagus audubonii) (Baird) and 2 black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus) (Gray) were captured. In Mexicali, ticks were collected from 44% (14/32) of individuals, and were exclusively Haemaphysalis leporispalustrisNeumann (Acari: Ixodidae); in Ensenada, ticks were collected from 70% (16/23) individuals, and 95% were Dermacentor parumapertus. Euhoplopsyllus glacialis affinisBaker (Siphonaptera: Pulicidae) fleas were collected from 72% of rabbits and 1 jackrabbit from Mexicali, while the few fleas found on hosts in Ensenada were Echidnophaga gallinaceaWestwood (Siphonaptera: Pulicidae) and Cediopsylla inaequalis(Siphonaptera: Pulicidae). Rickettsia bellii was the only rickettsial organism detected and was identified in 88% of D. parumapertus and 67% of H. leporispalustris ticks from Ensenada. A single tissue sample from a jackrabbit was positive for R. belli (Rickettsiales: Rickettsiaceae). Hosts in Ensenada had a significantly higher prevalence of rickettsial antibodies than hosts in Mexicali (52.3% vs. 21.4%). Although R. bellii is not regarded as pathogenic in humans or other mammals, it may contribute to immunity to other rickettsiae. The marked difference in distribution of ticks, fleas, and rickettsial exposure between the 2 locations suggests that disease transmission risk may vary markedly between communities within the same region.

The influence of physical fatigue on telephone-based neuropsychological test performance in COVID-19 survivors

Fatigue has been characterized as a post COVID-19 condition known to persist months after SARS-CoV-2 infection. COVID-19 has been reported to be associated with impaired cognitive function, including disorders in attention, memory, information processing, and executive functions. The objective of this study was to determine if post-COVID fatigue, manifested as tiredness while performing low-intensity physical activity, has a detrimental effect on neuropsychological performance, to achieve this, we randomly selected 20 participants with post-COVID fatigue and 20 SARS-CoV-2 negative age-matched controls from a database of 360 residents of Tijuana, Baja California in a cross-sectional study design. All 40 participants responded to a health survey, along with a neuropsychological assessment test via telephone call. Statistical analysis was performed using a multiple linear regression model including the following independent variables: study condition (post-COVID fatigue or negative control), sex, age, years of education, hypertension, asthma, administration of supplemental oxygen during COVID-19 recovery, and the hour at which the evaluation started. Significant regression analysis was obtained for all global parameters of the assessment, including BANFE-2 score (p = 0.021, R² Adj. = 0.263), NEUROPSI score (p = 0.008, R² Adj. = 0.319), and total errors (p = 0.021, R² Adj. = 0.263), with significant regression coefficients for study condition on two global parameters, BANFE-2 score (p = 0.028, β = - 0.371) and NEUROPSI score (p = 0.010, β = -0.428). These findings suggest that the presence of post-COVID fatigue is a factor associated with a decrease in neuropsychological performance.

Tick-borne pathogens detected in sheltered dogs during an epidemic of Rocky Mountain spotted fever, a One Health challenge

OBJECTIVE

To assess exposure to and infection with 3 pathogens (Rickettsia rickettsii, Anaplasma platys, and Ehrlichia canis) vectored by brown dog ticks (Rhipicephalus sanguineus) in sheltered dogs at the western US-Mexico border.

ANIMALS

239 dogs in shelters in San Diego and Imperial counties, US, and Mexicali and Tijuana, Mexico.

PROCEDURES

Each dog had blood drawn and basic demographic data collected. PCR was performed to determine active infection with Rickettsia spp, E canis, and A platys. Serology was performed to determine exposure to Rickettsia, Anaplasma, and Ehrlichia species.

RESULTS

2 of 78 (2.6%) dogs sampled in Tijuana were actively infected with R rickettsii. A single brown dog tick collected from a dog in Tijuana was PCR-positive for R rickettsii. Infection with E canis and A platys ranged across shelters from 0% to 27% and 0% to 33%, respectively. Dogs in all 4 locations demonstrated exposure to all 3 pathogens, though Rickettsia and Ehrlichia seropositivity was highest in Mexicali (81% and 49%, respectively) and Anaplasma seropositivity was highest in Tijuana (45%).

CLINICAL RELEVANCE

While infection and exposure were highest in sheltered dogs in the southern locations, dogs in all locations demonstrated exposure to all pathogens, demonstrating the potential for emergence and spread of zoonotic pathogens with significant public health consequences in southern California and northern Baja California. In addition, veterinarians and shelter staff should be aware that Ehrlichia or Anaplasma infection may co-occur with Rocky Mountain spotted fever, which is a human health risk.

Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices on Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever among Physicians in a Highly Endemic Region-Mexicali, Mexico

Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is a potentially fatal tickborne disease caused by the bacterium, Rickettsia rickettsii and transmitted primarily by the brown dog tick (Rhipicephalus sanguineus) in the southwestern United States and Mexico. RMSF can be rapidly fatal if not treated early with doxycycline, making healthcare worker awareness and education critical to reduce morbidity and mortality. During 2008–2019, Mexicali experienced a RMSF epidemic with 779 confirmed cases, and an 11-year case-fatality rate of 18% (N = 140). A cross-sectional study was conducted with 290 physicians and physicians-in-training across 12 medical facilities in Mexicali. They were asked to complete a 23-item questionnaire to assess knowledge, attitudes, and practices for clinical, epidemiologic, and preventive aspects of RMSF. Half of participants were female, the largest age group was aged 25 to 44 (47%), and median time in practice was 6 years (interquartile rate: 1–21.5). Less than half (48%) surveyed were confident where diagnostic testing could be performed, and two-thirds did not regularly order serology (67%) or molecular diagnostic (66%) tests for RMSF when a patient presented with fever. Sixty-four percent knew doxycycline as first-line treatment of children < 8 years with suspected RMSF. When comparing healthcare workers with < 6 years of experience to those with ≥ 6 years, more experience was associated with greater confidence in where to have diagnostic testing performed (prevalence odds ratio [prevalence odds ratios [pOR]] = 2.3; P = 0.004), and frequency of ordering laboratory tests (serology, pOR = 3.3; P = 0.002; polymerase chain reaction, pOR = 3.9; P = 0.001). Continued education, including information on diagnostic testing is key to reducing morbidity and mortality from RMSF.

Report of Adverse Effects Following Population-Wide COVID-19 Vaccination: A Comparative Study between Six Different Vaccines in Baja-California, Mexico

After emergency authorization, different COVID-19 vaccines were administered across Mexico in 2021, including mRNA, viral vector, and inactivated platform vaccines. In the state of Baja-California, 3,516,394 doses were administered, and 2285 adverse events (AE) were registered in the epidemiological surveillance system in 2021. Incidence rates per 100,000 doses were calculated for total, mild (local and systemic), and severe AE for each vaccine. Symptoms were compared between mRNA and viral vector/inactivated virus vaccines. The overall incidence rate for all AE was 64.98 per 100,000 administered doses; 79.05 AE per 100,000 doses for mRNA vaccines; and 56.9 AE per 100,000 doses for viral vector/inactivated virus vaccine platforms. AE were at least five times higher in recipients of the AstraZeneca vaccine from the Serum Institute of India (AZ from SII). Local injection site symptoms were more common in mRNA vaccines while systemic were more prevalent in viral vector/inactivated virus vaccines. Severe AE rates were similar across all administered vaccines (0.72–1.61 AE per 100,000 doses), except for AZ from SII, which documented 12.6 AE per 100,000 doses. Among 32 hospitalized severe cases, 28 (87.5%) were discharged. Guillain–Barré Syndrome was the most common serious AE reported (n = 7). Adverse events rates differed among vaccine manufacturers but were consistent with clinical trials and population-based reports in the literature.

Comparing the usefulness of two mortality registries for data-linkage for prospective cohorts in Mexico

Objective. To estimate the sensitivity and specificity of two Mexican death registries for the identification of vital status using a publicly available record-linkage tool. Materials and methods. We selected all reported deaths (n=581) and 575 alive participants in an epidemiologic cohort with active follow-up. Individual records were cross-linked to two mortal­ity registries. Results. A sensitivity of 87.2% (95%CI: 84.7, 90.2) and specificity of 99.3% (95%CI: 98.2, 99.8) were jointly achieved with both registries. Major discrepancies in cause of death were observed in 10.8% of deaths. Conclusion. There is initial evidence that Mexican death registries are a valuable resource for mortality follow-up in epidemiologic studies.

Fatal Pediatric Meningococcal Invasive Disease Caused by Neisseria meningitidis Serogroup C and Co-Infected With SARS-CoV-2: Report of a Case in Tijuana, Mexico

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is a severe infection caused by Neisseria meningitidis, with mortality rates ranging from 10% to 40%. IMD has been confirmed to be an endemic disease in Tijuana, Mexico, right across the border from San Diego, California. To date, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the most severe pandemic, causing more than 5.5 million deaths globally. Prior or co-infections of influenza with IMD has been reported previously; however, the participation of other respiratory viruses facilitating the invasiveness of N. meningitidis is either not shown or remains unclear. Here, we report the case of an unvaccinated (for IMD and COVID-19) seven-year-old child who had confirmed fatal IMD caused by N. meningitidis, serogroup C, and was co-infected by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

Extensively Drug-Resistant Carbapenemase-Producing Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Medical Tourism from the United States to Mexico, 2018-2019

Carbapenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa (CRPA) producing the Verona integron‒encoded metallo-β-lactamase (VIM) are highly antimicrobial drug-resistant pathogens that are uncommon in the United States. We investigated the source of VIM-CRPA among US medical tourists who underwent bariatric surgery in Tijuana, Mexico. Cases were defined as isolation of VIM-CRPA or CRPA from a patient who had an elective invasive medical procedure in Mexico during January 2018‒December 2019 and within 45 days before specimen collection. Whole-genome sequencing of isolates was performed. Thirty-eight case-patients were identified in 18 states; 31 were operated on by surgeon 1, most frequently at facility A (27/31 patients). Whole-genome sequencing identified isolates linked to surgeon 1 were closely related and distinct from isolates linked to other surgeons in Tijuana. Facility A closed in March 2019. US patients and providers should acknowledge the risk for colonization or infection after medical tourism with highly drug-resistant pathogens uncommon in the United States.

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Baja California, Mexico: Findings from a community-based survey in February 2021 in the Mexico-United States border

Between March 2020 and February 2021, the state of Baja California, Mexico, which borders the United States, registered 46,118 confirmed cases of COVID-19 with a mortality rate of 238.2 deaths per 100,000 residents. Given limited access to testing, the population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection is unknown. The objective of this study is to estimate the seroprevalence and real time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the three most populous cities of Baja California prior to scale-up of a national COVID-19 vaccination campaign. Probabilistic three-stage clustered sampling was used to conduct a population-based household survey of residents five years and older in the three cities. RT-PCR testing was performed on nasopharyngeal swabs and SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity was determined by IgG antibody testing using fingerstick blood samples. An interviewer-administered questionnaire assessed participants' knowledge, attitudes, and preventive practices regarding COVID-19. In total, 1,126 individuals (unweighted sample) were surveyed across the three cities. Overall prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection by RT-PCR was 7.8% (95% CI 5.5-11.0) and IgG seroprevalence was 21.1% (95% CI 17.4-25.2). There was no association between border crossing in the past 6 months and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence (unadjusted OR 0.40, 95%CI 0.12-1.30). While face mask use and frequent hand washing were common among participants, quarantine or social isolation at home to prevent infection was not. Regarding vaccination willingness, 30.4% (95% CI 24.4-3 7.1) of participants said they were very unlikely to get vaccinated. Given the high prevalence of active SARS-CoV-2 infection in Baja California at the end of the first year of the pandemic, combined with its low seroprevalence and the considerable proportion of vaccine hesitancy, this important area along the Mexico-United States border faces major challenges in terms of health literacy and vaccine uptake, which need to be further explored, along with its implications for border restrictions in future epidemics.

Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever in a Large Metropolitan Center, Mexico-United States Border, 2009-2019

Longevity, high prevalence, and multifocal distribution of this disease pose unprecedented public health challenges.

Epidemic levels of Rocky Mountain spotted fe­­­ver (RMSF) have persisted in Mexicali, Mexico, since the initial outbreak was first reported in December 2008. We compared clinical and epidemiologic data of cases in Mexicali during 2009–2019 between patients with an IgG titer reactive with Rickettsia rickettsii bacteria by indirect immunofluorescence antibody (IFA) assay and those who demonstrated DNA of R. rickettsii in a whole blood sample when tested by PCR. We identified 4,290 patients with clinical and epidemiologic features compatible with RMSF; of these, 9.74% tested positive by IFA and 8.41% by PCR. Overall, 140 patients died (11-year case-fatality rate 17.97%). Substantial differences in the frequency of commonly recognized clinical characteristics of RMSF were identified between PCR-positive and IFA-positive cases. The Mexicali epidemic is unique in its size and urban centralization. Cases confirmed by PCR most accurately reflect the clinical profile of RMSF.

An exploratory analysis of demography and movement patterns of dogs: New insights in the ecology of endemic Rocky Mountain-Spotted Fever in Mexicali, Mexico

An outbreak of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) transmitted by the brown dog tick (Rhipicephalus sanguineus sensu lato) has emerged as a major human and animal health concern in Mexicali, Mexico. Due to high rates of brown dog tick infestation, susceptibility, and association with humans, dogs serve as sentinels and have a key role in the ecology of RMSF. A cross-sectional household questionnaire study was conducted in six rural and urban locations to characterize dog ecology and demography in RMSF high-and low-risk areas of Mexicali. In addition, we tracked movement patterns of 16 dogs using a GPS data logger. Of 253 households, 73% owned dogs, and dog ownership tended to be higher in high-risk areas, with a mean dog:human ratio of 0.43, compared with 0.3 in low-risk areas. Dogs in high-risk areas had higher fecundity and roamed more, but the dog density and numbers of free-roaming dogs were comparable. There was a higher proportion of younger dogs and lower proportion of older dogs in high-risk areas. The high proportion of immunologically naïve puppies in high risk areas could result in a lack of herd immunity leading to a more vulnerable dog and human population. The marked increase of space use of free-roaming dogs in high-risk areas suggests that unrestrained dogs could play an important role in spreading ticks and pathogens. As means to limit RMSF risk, practical changes could include increased efforts for spay-neuter and policies encouraging dog restraint to limit canine roaming and spread of ticks across communities; due to dog density is less impactful such policies may be more useful than restrictions on the number of owned dogs.

Unbiased Assessment of Abundance of Rhipicephalus sanguineus sensu lato Ticks, Canine Exposure to Spotted Fever Group Rickettsia, and Risk Factors in Mexicali, México

An epidemic of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is ongoing in Mexicali, México. We visited 100 neighborhoods with diagnosed human cases and 100 control neighborhoods to evaluate knowledge of the epidemic; obtain data on the spatial distribution of dogs, canine seroprevalence and active infection, tick infestations, and presence of rickettsial DNA in ticks; and evaluate risk factors for human cases, seropositivity, and tick infestation within an unbiased study design. The majority (80%) of residents had heard of RMSF, but only 48% used acaricides in the home or on dogs. Case neighborhoods and those with high canine seroprevalence tended to be on the city periphery or in the agricultural valley. No dogs were polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive for Rickettsia rickettsii, and the overall seroprevalence was 65% (titers from 64 to 1,024). PCR prevalence in ticks was 0.70%, confirmed by DNA sequencing as R. rickettsii; neighborhood prevalence ranged from 0.7% to 6.1%. Twelve percent of dogs had high tick burdens, and all ticks were Rhipicephalus sanguineus. Epidemiologically significant risk factors were ground covering for a neighborhood having a human case; dogs having poor body condition and weighing < 10 kg for canine seropositivity; dogs living at the home for the number of ticks in the environment; and being near canals, having trash on the patio, and a dog being thin for tick burdens on dogs. A One Health approach is crucial to understanding RMSF and brown dog ticks.

Development and Progression of Interstitial Lung Abnormalities in the Framingham Heart Study

RATIONALE

The relationship between the development and/or progression of interstitial lung abnormalities (ILA) and clinical outcomes has not been previously investigated.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the risk factors for, and the clinical consequences of, having ILA progression in participants from the Framingham Heart Study.

METHODS

ILA were assessed in 1,867 participants who had serial chest computed tomography (CT) scans approximately 6 years apart. Mixed effect regression (and Cox) models were used to assess the association between ILA progression and pulmonary function decline (and mortality).

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

During the follow-up period 660 (35%) participants did not have ILA on either CT scan, 37 (2%) had stable to improving ILA, and 118 (6%) had ILA with progression (the remaining participants without ILA were noted to be indeterminate on at least one CT scan). Increasing age and increasing copies of the MUC5B promoter polymorphism were associated with ILA progression. After adjustment for covariates, ILA progression was associated with a greater FVC decline when compared with participants without ILA (20 ml; SE, ±6 ml; P = 0.0005) and with those with ILA without progression (25 ml; SE, ±11 ml; P = 0.03). Over a median follow-up time of approximately 4 years, after adjustment, ILA progression was associated with an increase in the risk of death (hazard ratio, 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-10.9; P = 0.01) when compared with those without ILA.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings demonstrate that ILA progression in the Framingham Heart Study is associated with an increased rate of pulmonary function decline and increased risk of death.

Authors seldom report the most patient-important outcomes and absolute effect measures in systematic review abstracts

OBJECTIVES

Explicit reporting of absolute measures is important to ensure treatment effects are correctly interpreted. We examined the extent to which authors report absolute effects for patient-important outcomes in abstracts of systematic review (SR).

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We searched OVID MEDLINE and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews to identify eligible SRs published in the year 2010. Citations were stratified into Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews, with repeated random sampling in a 1:1 ratio. Paired reviewers screened articles and recorded abstract characteristics, including reporting of effect measures for the most patient-important outcomes of benefit and harm.

RESULTS

We included 96 Cochrane and 94 non-Cochrane reviews. About 117 (77.5%) relative measures were reported in abstracts for outcomes of benefit, whereas only 34 (22.5%) absolute measures were reported. Similarly, for outcomes of harm, 41 (87.2%) relative measures were provided in abstracts, compared with only 6 (12.8%) absolute measures. Eighteen (9.5%) abstracts reported both absolute and relative measures for outcomes of benefit, whereas only two (1.1%) abstracts reported both measures for outcomes of harm. Results were similar between Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews.

CONCLUSION

SR abstracts seldom report measures of absolute effect. Journal editors should insist that authors report both relative and absolute effects for patient-important outcomes.

Association Between Interstitial Lung Abnormalities and All-Cause Mortality

IMPORTANCE

Interstitial lung abnormalities have been associated with lower 6-minute walk distance, diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide, and total lung capacity. However, to our knowledge, an association with mortality has not been previously investigated.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether interstitial lung abnormalities are associated with increased mortality.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND POPULATION

Prospective cohort studies of 2633 participants from the FHS (Framingham Heart Study; computed tomographic [CT] scans obtained September 2008-March 2011), 5320 from the AGES-Reykjavik Study (Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility; recruited January 2002-February 2006), 2068 from the COPDGene Study (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease; recruited November 2007-April 2010), and 1670 from ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints; between December 2005-December 2006).

EXPOSURES

Interstitial lung abnormality status as determined by chest CT evaluation.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

All-cause mortality over an approximate 3- to 9-year median follow-up time. Cause-of-death information was also examined in the AGES-Reykjavik cohort.

RESULTS

Interstitial lung abnormalities were present in 177 (7%) of the 2633 participants from FHS, 378 (7%) of 5320 from AGES-Reykjavik, 156 (8%) of 2068 from COPDGene, and in 157 (9%) of 1670 from ECLIPSE. Over median follow-up times of approximately 3 to 9 years, there were more deaths (and a greater absolute rate of mortality) among participants with interstitial lung abnormalities when compared with those who did not have interstitial lung abnormalities in the following cohorts: 7% vs 1% in FHS (6% difference [95% CI, 2% to 10%]), 56% vs 33% in AGES-Reykjavik (23% difference [95% CI, 18% to 28%]), and 11% vs 5% in ECLIPSE (6% difference [95% CI, 1% to 11%]). After adjustment for covariates, interstitial lung abnormalities were associated with a higher risk of death in the FHS (hazard ratio [HR], 2.7 [95% CI, 1.1 to 6.5]; P = .03), AGES-Reykjavik (HR, 1.3 [95% CI, 1.2 to 1.4]; P < .001), COPDGene (HR, 1.8 [95% CI, 1.1 to 2.8]; P = .01), and ECLIPSE (HR, 1.4 [95% CI, 1.1 to 2.0]; P = .02) cohorts. In the AGES-Reykjavik cohort, the higher rate of mortality could be explained by a higher rate of death due to respiratory disease, specifically pulmonary fibrosis.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In 4 separate research cohorts, interstitial lung abnormalities were associated with a greater risk of all-cause mortality. The clinical implications of this association require further investigation.

A comparison of visual and quantitative methods to identify interstitial lung abnormalities

Background

Evidence suggests that individuals with interstitial lung abnormalities (ILA) on a chest computed tomogram (CT) may have an increased risk to develop a clinically significant interstitial lung disease (ILD). Although methods used to identify individuals with ILA on chest CT have included both automated quantitative and qualitative visual inspection methods, there has been not direct comparison between these two methods. To investigate this relationship, we created lung density metrics and compared these to visual assessments of ILA.

Methods

To provide a comparison between ILA detection methods based on visual assessment we generated measures of high attenuation areas (HAAs, defined by attenuation values between −600 and −250 Hounsfield Units) in >4500 participants from both the COPDGene and Framingham Heart studies (FHS). Linear and logistic regressions were used for analyses.

Results

Increased measures of HAAs (in ≥10 % of the lung) were significantly associated with ILA defined by visual inspection in both cohorts (P < 0.0001); however, the positive predictive values were not very high (19 % in COPDGene and 13 % in the FHS). In COPDGene, the association between HAAs and ILA defined by visual assessment were modified by the percentage of emphysema and body mass index. Although increased HAAs were associated with reductions in total lung capacity in both cohorts, there was no evidence for an association between measurement of HAAs and MUC5B promoter genotype in the FHS.

Conclusion

Our findings demonstrate that increased measures of lung density may be helpful in determining the severity of lung volume reduction, but alone, are not strongly predictive of ILA defined by visual assessment. Moreover, HAAs were not associated with MUC5B promoter genotype.

Reporting, handling and assessing the risk of bias associated with missing participant data in systematic reviews: a methodological survey

OBJECTIVES

To describe how systematic reviewers are reporting missing data for dichotomous outcomes, handling them in the analysis and assessing the risk of associated bias.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for systematic reviews of randomised trials published in 2010, and reporting a meta-analysis of a dichotomous outcome. We randomly selected 98 Cochrane and 104 non-Cochrane systematic reviews. Teams of 2 reviewers selected eligible studies and abstracted data independently and in duplicate using standardised, piloted forms with accompanying instructions. We conducted regression analyses to explore factors associated with using complete case analysis and with judging the risk of bias associated with missing participant data.

RESULTS

Of Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews, 47% and 7% (p<0.0001), respectively, reported on the number of participants with missing data, and 41% and 9% reported a plan for handling missing categorical data. The 2 most reported approaches for handling missing data were complete case analysis (8.5%, out of the 202 reviews) and assuming no participants with missing data had the event (4%). The use of complete case analysis was associated only with Cochrane reviews (relative to non-Cochrane: OR=7.25; 95% CI 1.58 to 33.3, p=0.01). 65% of reviews assessed risk of bias associated with missing data; this was associated with Cochrane reviews (relative to non-Cochrane: OR=6.63; 95% CI 2.50 to 17.57, p=0.0001), and the use of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology (OR=5.02; 95% CI 1.02 to 24.75, p=0.047).

CONCLUSIONS

Though Cochrane reviews are somewhat less problematic, most Cochrane and non-Cochrane systematic reviews fail to adequately report and handle missing data, potentially resulting in misleading judgements regarding risk of bias.

Paraseptal emphysema: Prevalence and distribution on CT and association with interstitial lung abnormalities

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the prevalence and distribution of paraseptal emphysema on chest CT images in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) population, and assess its impact on pulmonary function. Also pursued was the association with interstitial lung abnormalities.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We assessed 2633 participants in the FHS for paraseptal emphysema on chest CT. Characteristics of the participants, including age, sex, smoking status, clinical symptoms, and results of pulmonary function tests, were compared between those with and without paraseptal emphysema. The association between paraseptal emphysema and interstitial lung abnormalities was investigated.

RESULTS

Of the 2633 participants, 86 (3%) had pure paraseptal emphysema (defined as paraseptal emphysema with no other subtypes of emphysema other than paraseptal emphysema or a very few centrilobular emphysema involved) in at least one lung zone. The upper zone of the lungs was almost always involved. Compared to the participants without paraseptal emphysema, those with pure paraseptal emphysema were significantly older, and were more frequently male and smokers (mean 64 years, 71% male, mean 36 pack-years, P<0.001) and had significantly decreased FEV1/FVC% (P=0.002), and diffusion capacity of carbon monoxide (DLCO) (P=0.002). There was a significant association between pure paraseptal emphysema and interstitial lung abnormalities (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of pure paraseptal emphysema was 3% in the FHS population, predominantly affects the upper lung zone, and contributes to decreased pulmonary function. Cigarette smoking, aging, and male gender were the factors associated with the presence of paraseptal emphysema. Significant association between paraseptal emphysema and interstitial lung abnormalities was observed.

A methodological survey of the analysis, reporting and interpretation of Absolute Risk ReductiOn in systematic revieWs (ARROW): a study protocol

BACKGROUND

Clinicians, providers and guideline panels use absolute effects to weigh the advantages and downsides of treatment alternatives. Relative measures have the potential to mislead readers. However, little is known about the reporting of absolute measures in systematic reviews. The objectives of our study are to determine the proportion of systematic reviews that report absolute measures of effect for the most important outcomes, and ascertain how they are analyzed, reported and interpreted.

METHODS/DESIGN

We will conduct a methodological survey of systematic reviews published in 2010. We will conduct a 1:1 stratified random sampling of Cochrane vs. non-Cochrane systematic reviews. We will calculate the proportion of systematic reviews reporting at least one absolute estimate of effect for the most patient-important outcome for the comparison of interest. We will conduct multivariable logistic regression analyses with the reporting of an absolute estimate of effect as the dependent variable and pre-specified study characteristics as the independent variables. For systematic reviews reporting an absolute estimate of effect, we will document the methods used for the analysis, reporting and interpretation of the absolute estimate.

DISCUSSION

Our methodological survey will inform current practices regarding reporting of absolute estimates in systematic reviews. Our findings may influence recommendations on reporting, conduct and interpretation of absolute estimates. Our results are likely to be of interest to systematic review authors, funding agencies, clinicians, guideline developers and journal editors.

MUC5B promoter polymorphism and interstitial lung abnormalities

BACKGROUND

A common promoter polymorphism (rs35705950) in MUC5B, the gene encoding mucin 5B, is associated with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. It is not known whether this polymorphism is associated with interstitial lung disease in the general population.

METHODS

We performed a blinded assessment of interstitial lung abnormalities detected in 2633 participants in the Framingham Heart Study by means of volumetric chest computed tomography (CT). We evaluated the relationship between the abnormalities and the genotype at the rs35705950 locus.

RESULTS

Of the 2633 chest CT scans that were evaluated, interstitial lung abnormalities were present in 177 (7%). Participants with such abnormalities were more likely to have shortness of breath and chronic cough and reduced measures of total lung and diffusion capacity, as compared with participants without such abnormalities. After adjustment for covariates, for each copy of the minor rs35705950 allele, the odds of interstitial lung abnormalities were 2.8 times greater (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.0 to 3.9; P<0.001), and the odds of definite CT evidence of pulmonary fibrosis were 6.3 times greater (95% CI, 3.1 to 12.7; P<0.001). Although the evidence of an association between the MUC5B genotype and interstitial lung abnormalities was greater among participants who were older than 50 years of age, a history of cigarette smoking did not appear to influence the association.

CONCLUSIONS

The MUC5B promoter polymorphism was found to be associated with interstitial lung disease in the general population. Although this association was more apparent in older persons, it did not appear to be influenced by cigarette smoking. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00005121.).