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Ledesma JR, Ma J, Zhang M, Basting AVL, Chu HT, Vongpradith A, Novotney A, LeGrand KE, Xu YY, Dai X, Nicholson SI, Stafford LK, Carter A, Ross JM, Abbastabar H, Abdoun M, Abdulah DM, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abrha WA, Abubaker Ali H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Aburuz S, Addo IY, Adepoju AV, Adhikari K, Adnani QES, Adra S, Afework A, Aghamiri S, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad D, Ahmad S, Ahmadzade AM, Ahmed H, Ahmed M, Ahmed A, Akinosoglou K, AL-Ahdal TMA, Alam N, Albashtawy M, AlBataineh MT, Al-Gheethi AAS, Ali A, Ali EA, Ali L, Ali Z, Ali SSS, Allel K, Altaf A, Al-Tawfiq JA, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Amani R, Amusa GA, Amzat J, Andrews JR, Anil A, Anwer R, Aravkin AY, Areda D, Artamonov AA, Aruleba RT, Asemahagn MA, Atre SR, Aujayeb A, Azadi D, Azadnajafabad S, Azzam AY, Badar M, Badiye AD, Bagherieh S, Bahadorikhalili S, Baig AA, Banach M, Banik B, Bardhan M, Barqawi HJ, Basharat Z, Baskaran P, Basu S, Beiranvand M, Belete MA, Belew MA, Belgaumi UI, Beloukas A, Bettencourt PJG, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhargava A, Bhat V, Bhatti JS, Bhatti GK, Bikbov B, Bitra VR, Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Bustanji Y, Butt ZA, Camargos P, Cao Y, Carr S, Carvalho F, Cegolon L, Cenderadewi M, Cevik M, Chahine Y, Chattu VK, Ching PR, Chopra H, Chung E, Claassens MM, Coberly K, Cruz-Martins N, Dabo B, Dadana S, Dadras O, Darban I, Darega Gela J, Darwesh AM, Dashti M, Demessa BH, Demisse B, Demissie S, Derese AMA, Deribe K, Desai HD, Devanbu VGC, Dhali A, Dhama K, Dhingra S, Do THP, Dongarwar D, Dsouza HL, Dube J, Dziedzic AM, Ed-Dra A, Efendi F, Effendi DE, Eftekharimehrabad A, Ekadinata N, Ekundayo TC, Elhadi M, Elilo LT, Emeto TI, Engelbert Bain L, Fagbamigbe AF, Fahim A, Feizkhah A, Fetensa G, Fischer F, Gaipov A, Gandhi AP, Gautam RK, Gebregergis MW, Gebrehiwot M, Gebrekidan KG, Ghaffari K, Ghassemi F, Ghazy RM, Goodridge A, Goyal A, Guan SY, Gudeta MD, Guled RA, Gultom NB, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gupta S, Hagins H, Hailu SG, Hailu WB, Hamidi S, Hanif A, Harapan H, Hasan RS, Hassan S, Haubold J, Hezam K, Hong SH, Horita N, Hossain MB, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Huynh HH, Ibitoye SE, Ikuta KS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Islam MR, Ismail NE, Ismail F, Jafarzadeh A, Jakovljevic M, Jalili M, Janodia MD, Jomehzadeh N, Jonas JB, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Kabir Z, Kamble BD, Kanchan T, Kandel H, Kanmodi KK, Kantar RS, Karaye IM, Karimi Behnagh A, Kassa GG, Kaur RJ, Kaur N, Khajuria H, Khamesipour F, Khan YH, Khan MN, Khan Suheb MZ, Khatab K, Khatami F, Kim MS, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Krishan K, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuddus MA, Kulimbet M, Kumar N, Lal DK, Landires I, Latief K, Le TDT, Le TTT, Ledda C, Lee M, Lee SW, Lerango TL, Lim SS, Liu C, Liu X, Lopukhov PD, Luo H, Lv H, Mahajan PB, Mahboobipour AA, Majeed A, Malakan Rad E, Malhotra K, Malik MSA, Malinga LA, Mallhi TH, Manilal A, Martinez-Guerra BA, Martins-Melo FR, Marzo RR, Masoumi-Asl H, Mathur V, Maude RJ, Mehrotra R, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Merza MA, Mestrovic T, Mhlanga L, Misra S, Misra AK, Mithra P, Moazen B, Mohammed H, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Moore CE, Mousavi P, Mulita F, Musaigwa F, Muthusamy R, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi P, Naik GR, Naik G, Nair S, Nair TS, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Negash H, Nguyen DH, Nguyen VT, Niazi RK, Nnaji CA, Nnyanzi LA, Noman EA, Nomura S, Oancea B, Obamiro KO, Odetokun IA, Odo DBO, Odukoya OO, Oh IH, Okereke CO, Okonji OC, Oren E, Ortiz-Brizuela E, Osuagwu UL, Ouyahia A, P A MP, Parija PP, Parikh RR, Park S, Parthasarathi A, Patil S, Pawar S, Peng M, Pepito VCF, Peprah P, Perdigão J, Perico N, Pham HT, Postma MJ, Prabhu ARA, Prasad M, Prashant A, Prates EJS, Rahim F, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahmati M, Rajaa S, Ramasamy SK, Rao IR, Rao SJ, Rapaka D, Rashid AM, Ratan ZA, Ravikumar N, Rawaf S, Reddy MMRK, Redwan EMM, Remuzzi G, Reyes LF, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Rezahosseini O, Rodrigues M, Roy P, Ruela GDA, Sabour S, Saddik B, Saeed U, Safi SZ, Saheb Sharif-Askari N, Saheb Sharif-Askari F, Sahebkar A, Sahiledengle B, Sahoo SS, Salam N, Salami AA, Saleem S, Saleh MA, Samadi Kafil H, Samadzadeh S, Samodra YL, Sanjeev RK, Saravanan A, Sawyer SM, Selvaraj S, Senapati S, Senthilkumaran S, Shah PA, Shahid S, Shaikh MA, Sham S, Shamshirgaran MA, Shanawaz M, Sharath M, Sherchan SP, Shetty RS, Shirzad-Aski H, Shittu A, Siddig EE, Silva JP, Singh S, Singh P, Singh H, Singh JA, Siraj MS, Siswanto S, Solanki R, Solomon Y, Soriano JB, Sreeramareddy CT, Srivastava VK, Steiropoulos P, Swain CK, Tabuchi T, Tampa M, Tamuzi JJLL, Tat NY, Tavakoli Oliaee R, Teklay G, Tesfaye EG, Tessema B, Thangaraju P, Thapar R, Thum CCC, Ticoalu JHV, Tleyjeh IM, Tobe-Gai R, Toma TM, Tram KH, Udoakang AJ, Umar TP, Umeokonkwo CD, Vahabi SM, Vaithinathan AG, van Boven JFM, Varthya SB, Wang Z, Warsame MSA, Westerman R, Wonde TE, Yaghoubi S, Yi S, Yiğit V, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, Yu C, Zakham F, Zangiabadian M, Zeukeng F, Zhang H, Zhao Y, Zheng P, Zielińska M, Salomon JA, Reiner Jr RC, Naghavi M, Vos T, Hay SI, Murray CJL, Kyu HH. Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Infect Dis 2024:S1473-3099(24)00007-0. [PMID: 38518787 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(24)00007-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2023] [Revised: 12/09/2023] [Accepted: 01/08/2024] [Indexed: 03/24/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020. METHODS We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data. FINDINGS We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths. INTERPRETATION Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Acosta F, Saldaña R, Miranda S, Candanedo D, Sambrano D, Morán M, Bejarano S, De Arriba Y, Reigosa A, De Dixon E, Atencio M, Castillo R, Goodridge A. Heterogeneity of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Strains Circulating in Panama's Western Region. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2023; 109:740-747. [PMID: 37604472 PMCID: PMC10551089 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.23-0039] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2023] [Accepted: 06/08/2023] [Indexed: 08/23/2023] Open
Abstract
Tuberculosis remains a challenge in both rural and urban areas. Although a majority of countries display a higher burden in urban areas compared with rural areas, Panama continues to report the highest mortality rate in Central America. Urban areas, such as Panama City, report a high tuberculosis burden, whereas Panama's western region, including the provinces of Chiriquí, Bocas del Toro (both semiurban) and Ngäbe-Bugle (rural), show a lower burden. We aimed to identify highly transmitted Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains within rural and semiurban settings of Panama's western region during a 3-year period (2017, 2019, 2021). We randomly selected 87 M. tuberculosis isolates from a biobank from Panama's western region and analyzed them using allele-specific oligonucleotide polymerase chain reaction and 24-mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit-variable number tandem repeat (MIRU-VNTR). Our results show only 11.7% (10/85) of M. tuberculosis strains identified as prevalent A-Beijing, B-Haarlem, or C-LAM Strains. We found a low prevalence of A, B, and C M. tuberculosis strains in both rural and semirural settings compared with isolates collected from the Eastern Colon Province. MIRU-VNTR genotyping revealed a high degree of diversity with no clusters with single loci variation of ≥ 2 loci. These results support the notion that tuberculosis prevalence in the rural and semiurban western region of Panama are not due to previously described highly transmitted strains but is influenced instead by other health determinants, including poor health system access and a lack of systematic transmission chain monitoring. For remote rural and semiurban settings, we recommend allocating resources to reinforce efforts to prevent tuberculosis spread.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fermin Acosta
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit at Centro de Biologia Celular y Molecular de Enfermedades (CBCME) Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), City of Knowledge, Panama City, Panama
| | - Ricardo Saldaña
- Hospital Materno Infantil José Domingo de Obaldía, David City, Provincia de Chiriquí, Panama
| | - Sara Miranda
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit at Centro de Biologia Celular y Molecular de Enfermedades (CBCME) Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), City of Knowledge, Panama City, Panama
- Universidad Autónoma de Chiriqui (UNACHI), David City, Provincia de Chiriquí, Panama
| | - Daniela Candanedo
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit at Centro de Biologia Celular y Molecular de Enfermedades (CBCME) Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), City of Knowledge, Panama City, Panama
| | - Dilcia Sambrano
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit at Centro de Biologia Celular y Molecular de Enfermedades (CBCME) Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), City of Knowledge, Panama City, Panama
| | - Mitchelle Morán
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit at Centro de Biologia Celular y Molecular de Enfermedades (CBCME) Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), City of Knowledge, Panama City, Panama
| | - Saily Bejarano
- Hospital Materno Infantil José Domingo de Obaldía, David City, Provincia de Chiriquí, Panama
| | - Yeraldine De Arriba
- Hospital Materno Infantil José Domingo de Obaldía, David City, Provincia de Chiriquí, Panama
| | - Angel Reigosa
- Hospital Materno Infantil José Domingo de Obaldía, David City, Provincia de Chiriquí, Panama
| | - Elizabeth De Dixon
- Hospital Materno Infantil José Domingo de Obaldía, David City, Provincia de Chiriquí, Panama
| | - María Atencio
- Hospital Materno Infantil José Domingo de Obaldía, David City, Provincia de Chiriquí, Panama
| | - Ramón Castillo
- Programa Regional de Tuberculosis de la Provincia de Chiriquí, Ministerio de Salud, David City, Provincia de Chiriquí, Panama
| | - Amador Goodridge
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit at Centro de Biologia Celular y Molecular de Enfermedades (CBCME) Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), City of Knowledge, Panama City, Panama
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Rios M, Subinas J, Delgado C, Torres E, Goodridge A, Cubilla‐Batista I. Dietary patterns, social determinants, and emotions during COVID‐19 confinement in Panama: An online survey. Health Sci Rep 2023; 6:e1168. [PMID: 37033391 PMCID: PMC10075246 DOI: 10.1002/hsr2.1168] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2022] [Revised: 03/06/2023] [Accepted: 03/13/2023] [Indexed: 04/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Aim We aimed to evaluate health and nutrition behaviors among the Panamanian population during the confinement period corresponding to the first wave of the COVID‐19 pandemic. Methods We conducted a cross‐sectional study using an online survey for data collection with a total of 2475 participants over the age of 18 using an online survey. We also completed 64 face‐to‐face interviews. After data validation, 1561 surveys were included in the study. Most respondents were women (74.2%) between 18 and 49 years old. Among the respondents, 83.3% had a university education level, and 49.9% reported a monthly family income of fewer than 1000 USD. In addition, more than 50% self‐reported as overweight or obese. Results We identified three dietary patterns: a healthy, a non‐healthy, and a mixed dietary pattern. The respondents with healthy and nonhealthy dietary patterns reported better socioeconomic conditions than participants from the mixed dietary pattern. Individuals with mixed dietary patterns had lower incomes, less education, and higher unemployment rates. Regarding emotions, we found that women experienced more negative emotions, such as fear, worry, and anxiety, during the lockdown period. Conclusions Taken together, these results indicate that the mobility restriction measures imposed during the COVID‐19 pandemic could have affected dietary patterns by exacerbating existing inequalities. Directing resources toward promoting healthy nutrition strategies with the most significant positive impacts on public health is a priority, especially in critical situations such as the COVID‐19 pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maritza Rios
- Centro de Educación Nutricional de niño y el adultoPacífica SaludPanamáPanama
- Centro de Investigación Médica Pacífica SaludPanamaPanama
| | - Jon Subinas
- Centro Internacional de Estudios Sociales‐CIEPS‐AIPCity of KnowledgePanama
- Sistema Nacional de Investigacion, SNIPanamaPanama
| | - Celestina Delgado
- Departmento Nacional de Salud NutricionalMinisterio de SaludPanamáPanama
| | | | - Amador Goodridge
- Centro de Investigación Médica Pacífica SaludPanamaPanama
- Sistema Nacional de Investigacion, SNIPanamaPanama
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT‐AIP)City of KnowledgePanamaPanama
| | - Idalina Cubilla‐Batista
- Centro de Investigación Médica Pacífica SaludPanamaPanama
- Sistema Nacional de Investigacion, SNIPanamaPanama
- Hospital Rafael EstévezCaja de Seguro SocialAguadulce CityCocléPanama
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Abstract
We highlight the need to include an analysis of the B-1 B cell subset to complement the characterization of the cell-mediated immune response to the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing lineage. The literature describes the B-1 cell repertoire's involvement in the cell-mediated response within granulomas, which is different from the classic antibody response B cells are generally associated with. Specifically, the B-1 B cell subset migrates from other compartments along with other cells to the infection site. We provide details to complement the reported results from Cerezo-Cortes et al.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fermín Acosta
- Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de las Enfermedades (CBCME) del Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), City of Knowledge, Panama City, Panamá
| | - Patricia L. Fernández
- Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de las Enfermedades (CBCME) del Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), City of Knowledge, Panama City, Panamá
| | - Amador Goodridge
- Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de las Enfermedades (CBCME) del Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), City of Knowledge, Panama City, Panamá,CONTACT Amador Goodridge
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Herrera TT, Cubilla-Batista I, Goodridge A, Pereira TV. Diagnostic accuracy of prenatal imaging for the diagnosis of congenital Zika syndrome: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Front Med (Lausanne) 2022; 9:962765. [PMID: 36250095 PMCID: PMC9556817 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2022.962765] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2022] [Accepted: 07/29/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of prenatal imaging for the diagnosis of congenital Zika syndrome.Data sourcesMedline (via Pubmed), PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Google Scholar from inception to March 2022. Two researchers independently screened study titles and abstracts for eligibility.Study eligibility criteriaObservational studies with Zika virus-infected pregnant women were included. The index tests included ultrasound and/or magnetic resonance imaging. The reference standard included (1) Zika infection-related perinatal death, stillbirth, and neonatal death within the first 48 h of birth, (2) neonatal intensive care unit admission, and (3) clinically defined adverse perinatal outcomes.Synthesis methodsWe extracted 2 × 2 contingency tables. Pooled sensitivity and specificity were estimated using the random-effects bivariate model and assessed the summary receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Risk of bias was assessed using QUADAS 2 tool. The certainty of the evidence was evaluated with grading of recommendations.ResultsWe screened 1,459 references and included 18 studies (2359 pregnant women, 347 fetuses with confirmed Zika virus infection). Twelve studies (67%) were prospective cohorts/case series, and six (37%) were retrospective cohort/case series investigations. Fourteen studies (78%) were performed in endemic regions. Ten studies (56%) used prenatal ultrasound only, six (33%) employed ultrasound and fetal MRI, and two studies (11%) used prenatal ultrasound and postnatal fetal MRI. A total of six studies (ultrasound only) encompassing 780 pregnant women (122 fetuses with confirmed Zika virus infection) reported relevant data for meta-analysis (gestation age at which ultrasound imagining was captured ranged from 16 to 34 weeks). There was large heterogeneity across studies regarding sensitivity (range: 12 to 100%) and specificity (range: 50 to 100%). Under a random-effects model, the summary sensitivity of ultrasound was 82% (95% CI, 19 to 99%), and the summary specificity was 97% (71 to 100%). The area under the ROC curve was 97% (95% CI, 72 to 100%), and the summary diagnostic odds ratio was 140 (95% CI, 3 to 7564, P < 0.001). The overall certainty of the evidence was “very low”.ConclusionUltrasound may be useful in improving the diagnostic accuracy of Zika virus infection in pregnancy. However, the evidence is still substantially uncertain due to the methodological limitations of the available studies. Larger, properly conducted diagnostic accuracy studies of prenatal imaging for the diagnosis of congenital Zika syndrome are warranted.Systematic review registrationIdentifier [CRD42020162914].
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Affiliation(s)
- Tania T. Herrera
- Centro de Investigación Médica Pacifica Salud-INDICASAT AIP, Pacifica Salud, Hospital Punta Pacicifica, Panama City, Panama
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de Enfermedades-Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), City of Knowledge, Panama City, Panama
- *Correspondence: Tania T. Herrera,
| | - Idalina Cubilla-Batista
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de Enfermedades-Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), City of Knowledge, Panama City, Panama
- Hospital Rafael Estévez, Caja de Seguro Social, Aguadulce, Panama
| | - Amador Goodridge
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de Enfermedades-Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), City of Knowledge, Panama City, Panama
| | - Tiago V. Pereira
- Department of Health Sciences, College of Medicine, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom
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Torres-Atencio I, Campble A, Goodridge A, Martin M. Uncovering the Mast Cell Response to Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Front Immunol 2022; 13:886044. [PMID: 35720353 PMCID: PMC9201906 DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2022.886044] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2022] [Accepted: 05/02/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
The immunologic mechanisms that contribute to the response to Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection still represent a challenge in the clinical management and scientific understanding of tuberculosis disease. In this scenario, the role of the different cells involved in the host response, either in terms of innate or adaptive immunity, remains key for defeating this disease. Among this coordinated cell response, mast cells remain key for defeating tuberculosis infection and disease. Together with its effector’s molecules, membrane receptors as well as its anatomical locations, mast cells play a crucial role in the establishment and perpetuation of the inflammatory response that leads to the generation of the granuloma during tuberculosis. This review highlights the current evidences that support the notion of mast cells as key link to reinforce the advancements in tuberculosis diagnosis, disease progression, and novel therapeutic strategies. Special focus on mast cells capacity for the modulation of the inflammatory response among patients suffering multidrug resistant tuberculosis or in co-infections such as current COVID-19 pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ivonne Torres-Atencio
- Departamento de Farmacología, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Panamá, Panama, Panama.,Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades (CBCME) - Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Ciudad Del Saber, Panama
| | - Ariadne Campble
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades (CBCME) - Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Ciudad Del Saber, Panama
| | - Amador Goodridge
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades (CBCME) - Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Ciudad Del Saber, Panama
| | - Margarita Martin
- Biochemistry Unit, Biomedicine Department, Faculty of Medicine, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.,Laboratory of Clinical and Experimental Respiratory Immunoallergy, August Pi i Sunyer Biomedical Research Institute (IDIBAPS), Barcelona, Spain
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Ledesma JR, Ma J, Vongpradith A, Maddison ER, Novotney A, Biehl MH, LeGrand KE, Ross JM, Jahagirdar D, Bryazka D, Feldman R, Abolhassani H, Abosetugn AE, Abu-Gharbieh E, Adebayo OM, Adnani QES, Afzal S, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad SA, Ahmadi S, Ahmed Rashid T, Ahmed Salih Y, Aklilu A, Akunna CJ, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, Alemayehu Y, Alene KA, Ali BA, Ali L, Alipour V, Alizade H, Al-Raddadi RM, Alvis-Guzman N, Amini S, Amit AML, Anderson JA, Androudi S, Antonio CAT, Antony CM, Anwer R, Arabloo J, Arja A, Asemahagn MA, Atre SR, Azhar GS, B DB, Babar ZUD, Baig AA, Banach M, Barqawi HJ, Barra F, Barrow A, Basu S, Belgaumi UI, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharjee NV, Bhattacharyya K, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Boloor A, Briko NI, Buonsenso D, Burugina Nagaraja S, Butt ZA, Carter A, Carvalho F, Charan J, Chatterjee S, Chattu SK, Chattu VK, Christopher DJ, Chu DT, Claassens MM, Dadras O, Dagnew AB, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daneshpajouhnejad P, Darwesh AM, Dhamnetiya D, Dianatinasab M, Diaz D, Doan LP, Eftekharzadeh S, Elhadi M, Emami A, Enany S, Faraon EJA, Farzadfar F, Fernandes E, Ferro Desideri L, Filip I, Fischer F, Foroutan M, Frank TD, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Garcia-Calavaro C, Garg T, Geberemariyam BS, Ghadiri K, Ghashghaee A, Golechha M, Goodridge A, Gupta B, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Haider MR, Hamidi S, Hanif A, Haque S, Harapan H, Hargono A, Hasaballah AI, Hashi A, Hassan S, Hassankhani H, Hayat K, Hezam K, Holla R, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Househ M, Hussain R, Ibitoye SE, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Irvani SSN, Ismail NE, Itumalla R, Jaafari J, Jacobsen KH, Jain V, Javanmardi F, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Joseph N, Joukar F, Kabir Z, Kamath A, Kanchan T, Kandel H, Katoto PDMC, Kayode GA, Kendrick PJ, Kerbo AA, Khajuria H, Khalilov R, Khatab K, Khoja AT, Khubchandani J, Kim MS, Kim YJ, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Kucuk Bicer B, Kumar A, Kumar GA, Kumar N, Kumar N, Kwarteng A, Lak HM, Lal DK, Landires I, Lasrado S, Lee SWH, Lee WC, Lin C, Liu X, Lopukhov PD, Lozano R, Machado DB, Madhava Kunjathur S, Madi D, Mahajan PB, Majeed A, Malik AA, Martins-Melo FR, Mehta S, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Merie HE, Mersha AG, Mesregah MK, Mestrovic T, Mheidly NM, Misra S, Mithra P, Moghadaszadeh M, Mohammadi M, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed S, Molokhia M, Moni MA, Montasir AA, Moore CE, Nagarajan AJ, Nair S, Nair S, Naqvi AA, Narasimha Swamy S, Nayak BP, Nazari J, Neupane Kandel S, Nguyen TH, Nixon MR, Nnaji CA, Ntsekhe M, Nuñez-Samudio V, Oancea B, Odukoya OO, Olagunju AT, Oren E, P A M, Parthasarathi R, Pashazadeh Kan F, Pattanshetty SM, Paudel R, Paul P, Pawar S, Pepito VCF, Perico N, Pirestani M, Polibin RV, Postma MJ, Pourshams A, Prashant A, Pribadi DRA, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman M, Rahmani AM, Ranasinghe P, Rao CR, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Reta MA, Rezaei N, Rezahosseini O, Rezai MS, Rezapour A, Roshandel G, Roshchin DO, Sabour S, Saif-Ur-Rahman KM, Salam N, Samadi Kafil H, Samaei M, Samy AM, Saroshe S, Sartorius B, Sathian B, Sawyer SM, Senthilkumaran S, Seylani A, Shafaat O, Shaikh MA, Sharafi K, Shetty RS, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Silva JP, Singh JK, Sinha S, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Spurlock EE, Sreeramareddy CT, Steiropoulos P, Sufiyan MB, Tabuchi T, Tadesse EG, Tamir Z, Tarkang EE, Tekalegn Y, Tesfay FH, Tessema B, Thapar R, Tleyjeh II, Tobe-Gai R, Tran BX, Tsegaye B, Tsegaye GW, Ullah A, Umeokonkwo CD, Valadan Tahbaz S, Vo B, Vu GT, Waheed Y, Walters MK, Whisnant JL, Woldekidan MA, Wubishet BL, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yazie TSY, Yeshaw Y, Yi S, Yiğit V, Yonemoto N, Yu C, Yunusa I, Zastrozhin MS, Zastrozhina A, Zhang ZJ, Zumla A, Mokdad AH, Salomon JA, Reiner Jr RC, Lim SS, Naghavi M, Vos T, Hay SI, Murray CJL, Kyu HH. Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Infect Dis 2022; 22:222-241. [PMID: 34563275 PMCID: PMC8799634 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(21)00449-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2021] [Revised: 05/21/2021] [Accepted: 07/15/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. METHODS We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates. FINDINGS Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08-1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45-9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000-279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01-1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000-425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82-1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820-11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300-100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69-5·02), 6·17 (5·48-7·02), and 1·17 (1·07-1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03-2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05-1·08) times greater among females than males. INTERPRETATION As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Acosta F, Vega S, Goodridge A. Re: "Genotyping and Molecular Characterization of Fluoroquinolone's Resistance Among Multidrug-Resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Southwest of China" by Hu et al. Microb Drug Resist 2021; 28:498-499. [PMID: 34918969 DOI: 10.1089/mdr.2021.0289] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Fermin Acosta
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades (CBCME), Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Ciudad del Saber, Panamá
| | - Silvio Vega
- Complejo Hospitalario Metropolitano Dr. Arnulfo Arias Madrid, Caja de Seguro Social, Ciudad de Panamá, Panama
| | - Amador Goodridge
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades (CBCME), Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Ciudad del Saber, Panamá
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Vega S, Acosta F, Landires I, Morán M, Gonzalez J, Pimentel-Peralta G, Núñez-Samudio V, Goodridge A. Phenotypic and genotypic characteristics of carbapenemase- and extended spectrum β-lactamase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae ozaenae clinical isolates within a hospital in Panama City. Ther Adv Infect Dis 2021; 8:20499361211054918. [PMID: 34733509 PMCID: PMC8558783 DOI: 10.1177/20499361211054918] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2021] [Accepted: 10/04/2021] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Klebsiella pneumoniae spp ozaenae is a versatile bacterial species able to acquire antimicrobial resistance; the species presents a higher antimicrobial resistance profile compared to Klebsiella pneumoniae spp pneumoniae. Carbapenemase and extended spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing bacteria commonly arise in clinical settings where antimicrobial stewardship is limited. Our study aims to report the phenotypical and genetic characteristics of nosocomial Klebsiella pneumoniae spp ozaenae isolates associated with mortality collected from a tertiary-level hospital in Panama City. In October 2020, 11 consecutive multidrug-resistant Gram-negative isolates were recovered from secretions and blood cultures from hospitalized patients. Nearly 90% (10/11) of these patients died, and bacteria was obtained from six patients for investigation. Biochemical evaluation of the six isolates revealed the presence of multidrug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae spp ozaenae. Phenotypic evaluation indicated resistance to carbapenemase and EBSL. In contrast, genetic evaluation by PCR showed that only 30% (2/6) were resistant to CTX-M-1 (CTX-M group 1), whereas 60.7% (4/6) presented carbapenemase resistance genes, and 33.3% (2/6) presented New Delhi metallo-β-lactamase (NDM) resistance genes. Klebsiella pneumoniae ST258 was identified in 83.3% (5/6) of the isolates. Phylogenetic analysis using 16S revealed low homology among the six isolates. These results suggest that antibiotic resistance genes may have been incorporated into these Klebsiella pneumoniae spp ozaenae isolates within the hospital environment. We recommend strengthening the antimicrobial stewardship program and antibiotic control policy, as well as heightened infection control and prevention measures, such as ward sanitation and increased hand washing frequency.
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Affiliation(s)
- Silvio Vega
- Laboratorio Clínico, Complejo Hospitalario Metropolitano Dr. Arnulfo Arias Madrid, Caja de Seguro Social (CHMDrAAM-CSS), Panama City, Panama
| | - Fermín Acosta
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit at Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades (CBCME) del Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), City of Knowledge, Panama
| | | | - Mitchelle Morán
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit at Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades (CBCME) del Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), City of Knowledge, Panama
| | - Johanna Gonzalez
- Laboratorio Clínico, Complejo Hospitalario Metropolitano Dr. Arnulfo Arias Madrid, Caja de Seguro Social (CHMDrAAM-CSS), Panama City, Panama
| | | | | | - Amador Goodridge
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades (CBCME) del Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), P.O. Box 0843-01103, City of Knowledge, Panama
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de la Guardia C, Rangel G, Villarreal A, Goodridge A, Fernández PL, Lleonart R. Development of in-house, indirect ELISAs for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein-associated serology in COVID-19 patients in Panama. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0257351. [PMID: 34520491 PMCID: PMC8439474 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0257351] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2021] [Accepted: 08/27/2021] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
COVID-19 is the name of the acute respiratory disease caused by the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, a close relative of those that caused the severe outbreaks of SARS and MERS several years ago. Since first appearance on December of 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic has cause extremely high levels of mortality, morbidity, global economic breakdown, and the consequent human suffering. The main diagnostic test for the confirmation of symptomatic individuals is the detection of viral RNA by reverse transcriptase-quantitative real time PCR (RT-PCR). Additionally, serology techniques, such as ELISA are useful to measure the antibodies produced in humans after contact with the virus, as well as the direct presence of viral antigens. In this study we aim to assemble and evaluate four ELISA assays to measure the presence of IgG or IgM specific for the viral Spike protein in COVID-19 patients, using either the full recombinant SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein or the fragment corresponding to the receptor binding domain. As a control, we analyzed a group of pre-pandemic serum samples obtained before 2017. Strong reactivity was observed against both antigens. A few pre-pandemic samples displayed high OD values, suggesting the possibility of some cross reactivity. All four assays show very good repeatability, both intra- and inter-assay. Receiver operating characteristic analysis allowed the definition of cutoffs and evaluation of performance for each ELISA by estimation of the area under the curve. This performance parameter was high for all tests (AUC range: 0.98-0.99). Multiple comparisons between tests revealed no significant difference between each other (P values: 0.24-0.95). Our results show that both antigens are effective to detect both specific IgG and IgM antibodies, with high sensitivity (range 0.92-0.99), specificity (range 0.93-0.97) and congruence with the RT-PCR test (Cohen´s Kappa range 0.87-0.93). These assays will allow health authorities to have a new tool to estimate seroprevalence, in order to manage and improve the severe sanitary situation caused by this virus.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carolina de la Guardia
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de Enfermedades, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT AIP), Ciudad de Panama, Panama
| | - Giselle Rangel
- Centro de Neurociencias y Unidad de Investigación Clínica, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT AIP), Ciudad de Panama, Panama
| | - Alcibiades Villarreal
- Centro de Neurociencias y Unidad de Investigación Clínica, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT AIP), Ciudad de Panama, Panama
| | - Amador Goodridge
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de Enfermedades, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT AIP), Ciudad de Panama, Panama
| | - Patricia L. Fernández
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de Enfermedades, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT AIP), Ciudad de Panama, Panama
| | - Ricardo Lleonart
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de Enfermedades, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT AIP), Ciudad de Panama, Panama
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López A, Acosta F, Sambrano D, Tarajia M, Navajas S, Arias F, Escobar B, Ortis P, Adames F, Goodridge A. Direct Molecular Characterization of Acid-Fast Bacilli Smear of Nontuberculosis Mycobacterium Species Causing Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Guna Yala Region, Panama. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2021; 105:633-637. [PMID: 34237018 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.21-0096] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2021] [Accepted: 05/03/2021] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) stands out as the main causative agent of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB). However, nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) species also have the potential to infect and cause TB in susceptible individuals. The objective of this study was to identify NTM species that cause public health problems in remote areas. The study was carried out using 105 sputum smears obtained from patients from the Guna Yala Region of Panama with clinical signs suggestive of TB. DNA was extracted from sputum smears. Nontuberculous mycobacteria and MTB were characterized using polymerase chain reaction restriction analysis (hsp65, rpob) and an evaluation of 24-mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units-variable number of tandem repeats loci. Twenty-six Mycobacterium species were characterized; 19 (18%) were identified as MTB, and 7 (6.7%) were identified as NTM (four M. avium complex, two M. haemophilum, one M. tusciae). These results suggest that at least one in five cases of pulmonary TB among this population is caused by an NTM. Thus, identifying the bacteria causing pulmonary disease is key even in remote regions of the world where standard diagnosis and culture are not available. Strengthening the laboratory capacity within the Guna Yala Region is needed to identify NTM infections promptly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arístides López
- Centro Regional de Salud de la Comarca Guna Yala, Ministerio de Salud (MINSA), Panamá.,Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades (CBCME) del Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Panamá
| | - Fermin Acosta
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades (CBCME) del Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Panamá
| | - Dilcia Sambrano
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades (CBCME) del Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Panamá
| | - Musharaf Tarajia
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades (CBCME) del Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Panamá.,Department of Biotechnology, Acharya Nagarjuna University, Guntur, India
| | | | - Florentino Arias
- Centro Regional de Salud de la Comarca Guna Yala, Ministerio de Salud (MINSA), Panamá
| | - Baudilio Escobar
- Centro Regional de Salud de la Comarca Guna Yala, Ministerio de Salud (MINSA), Panamá
| | - Porfirio Ortis
- Centro Regional de Salud de la Comarca Guna Yala, Ministerio de Salud (MINSA), Panamá
| | - Fidel Adames
- Centro Regional de Salud de la Comarca Guna Yala, Ministerio de Salud (MINSA), Panamá
| | - Amador Goodridge
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades (CBCME) del Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Panamá
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Herrera T, Cubilla-Batista I, Britton C, Goodridge A. Valores de referencia de la translucencia nucal en Panamá y su comparación con diferentes regiones del mundo. Clínica e Investigación en Ginecología y Obstetricia 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gine.2020.11.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
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Villarreal A, Rangel G, Zhang X, Wong D, Britton G, Fernandez PL, Pérez A, Oviedo D, Restrepo C, Carreirra MB, Sambrano D, Eskildsen GA, De La Guardia C, Flores-Cuadra J, Carrera JP, Zaldivar Y, Franco D, López-Vergès S, Zhang D, Fan F, Wang B, Sáez-Llorens X, DeAntonio R, Torres-Atencio I, Blanco I, Subía FD, Mudarra L, Benzadon A, Valverde W, López L, Hurtado N, Rivas N, Jurado J, Carvallo A, Rodriguez J, Perez Y, Morris J, Luque O, Cortez D, Ortega-Barria E, Kosagisharaf R, Lleonart R, Li C, Goodridge A. Performance of a Point of Care Test for Detecting IgM and IgG Antibodies Against SARS-CoV-2 and Seroprevalence in Blood Donors and Health Care Workers in Panama. Front Med (Lausanne) 2021; 8:616106. [PMID: 33748157 PMCID: PMC7968482 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2021.616106] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2020] [Accepted: 01/28/2021] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the etiologic agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which has reached 28 million cases worldwide in 1 year. The serological detection of antibodies against the virus will play a pivotal role in complementing molecular tests to improve diagnostic accuracy, contact tracing, vaccine efficacy testing, and seroprevalence surveillance. Here, we aimed first to evaluate a lateral flow assay's ability to identify specific IgM and IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 and second, to report the seroprevalence estimates of these antibodies among health care workers and healthy volunteer blood donors in Panama. We recruited study participants between April 30th and July 7th, 2020. For the test validation and performance evaluation, we analyzed serum samples from participants with clinical symptoms and confirmed positive RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2, and a set of pre-pandemic serum samples. We used two by two table analysis to determine the test positive and negative percentage agreement as well as the Kappa agreement value with a 95% confidence interval. Then, we used the lateral flow assay to determine seroprevalence among serum samples from COVID-19 patients, potentially exposed health care workers, and healthy volunteer donors. Our results show this assay reached a positive percent agreement of 97.2% (95% CI 84.2-100.0%) for detecting both IgM and IgG. The assay showed a Kappa of 0.898 (95%CI 0.811-0.985) and 0.918 (95% CI 0.839-0.997) for IgM and IgG, respectively. The evaluation of serum samples from hospitalized COVID-19 patients indicates a correlation between test sensitivity and the number of days since symptom onset; the highest positive percent agreement [87% (95% CI 67.0-96.3%)] was observed at ≥15 days post-symptom onset (PSO). We found an overall antibody seroprevalence of 11.6% (95% CI 8.5-15.8%) among both health care workers and healthy blood donors. Our findings suggest this lateral flow assay could contribute significantly to implementing seroprevalence testing in locations with active community transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alcibiades Villarreal
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades, City of Knowledge, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Panama City, Panama
| | - Giselle Rangel
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades, City of Knowledge, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Panama City, Panama
| | - Xu Zhang
- Institute of Biophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- Beijing Zhongke Jianlan Biotechnology Co. Ltd., Beijing, China
- Zhongke Jianlan International Medical Research Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Digna Wong
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades, City of Knowledge, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Panama City, Panama
| | - Gabrielle Britton
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades, City of Knowledge, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Panama City, Panama
| | - Patricia L. Fernandez
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades, City of Knowledge, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Panama City, Panama
| | - Ambar Pérez
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades, City of Knowledge, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Panama City, Panama
| | - Diana Oviedo
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades, City of Knowledge, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Panama City, Panama
- Escuela de Psicología, Universidad Santa María La Antigua, Panama City, Panama
| | - Carlos Restrepo
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades, City of Knowledge, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Panama City, Panama
| | - María B. Carreirra
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades, City of Knowledge, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Panama City, Panama
| | - Dilcia Sambrano
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades, City of Knowledge, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Panama City, Panama
| | - Gilberto A. Eskildsen
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades, City of Knowledge, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Panama City, Panama
- Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Panamá, Panama City, Panama
| | - Carolina De La Guardia
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades, City of Knowledge, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Panama City, Panama
| | - Julio Flores-Cuadra
- Centro de Neurociencia, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología, AIP (INDICASAT AIP), Panama City, Panama
| | - Jean-Paul Carrera
- Department of Research in Virology and Biotechnology, Gorgas Memorial Institute of Health Studies, Panama City, Panama
| | - Yamitzel Zaldivar
- Department of Research in Surveillance and Biologic Risk 3, Gorgas Memorial Institute of Health Studies, Panama City, Panama
| | - Danilo Franco
- Department of Research in Virology and Biotechnology, Gorgas Memorial Institute of Health Studies, Panama City, Panama
| | - Sandra López-Vergès
- Department of Research in Virology and Biotechnology, Gorgas Memorial Institute of Health Studies, Panama City, Panama
| | - Dexi Zhang
- Institute of Biophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- Beijing Zhongke Jianlan Biotechnology Co. Ltd., Beijing, China
- Zhongke Jianlan International Medical Research Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Fangjing Fan
- Institute of Biophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- Beijing Zhongke Jianlan Biotechnology Co. Ltd., Beijing, China
- Zhongke Jianlan International Medical Research Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Baojun Wang
- Beijing Kewei Clinical Diagnostic Reagent Inc., Beijing, China
| | - Xavier Sáez-Llorens
- Centro de Vacunación e Investigación, Centro de Vacunación e Investigación Panama Clinic, Panama City, Panama
| | - Rodrigo DeAntonio
- Centro de Vacunación e Investigación, Centro de Vacunación e Investigación Panama Clinic, Panama City, Panama
| | | | - Isabel Blanco
- Medical Research Center, Pacifica Salud, Hospital Punta Pacifica, Panama City, Panama
| | - Fernando Diaz Subía
- Medical Research Center, Pacifica Salud, Hospital Punta Pacifica, Panama City, Panama
| | - Laiss Mudarra
- Departamento de Microbiología Humana/Inmunología, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Panamá, Panama City, Panama
| | - Aron Benzadon
- Servicio de Neurología. Complejo Hospitalario Dr. AAM, Universidad Nacional de Panamá, Panama City, Panama
| | - Walter Valverde
- Complejo Hospitalario Metropolitano Dr. Arnulfo Arias Madrid, Caja de Seguro Social, Panama City, Panama
| | - Lineth López
- Servicio de Hematología. Complejo Hospitalario Metropolitano Dr. Arnulfo Arias Madrid, Caja de Seguro Social, Panama City, Panama
| | - Nicolás Hurtado
- Compleo Hospitalario Manuel Amador Guerrero, Caja de Seguro Social, Colón, Panama
| | - Neyla Rivas
- Compleo Hospitalario Manuel Amador Guerrero, Caja de Seguro Social, Colón, Panama
| | - Julio Jurado
- Compleo Hospitalario Manuel Amador Guerrero, Caja de Seguro Social, Colón, Panama
| | - Aixa Carvallo
- Compleo Hospitalario Manuel Amador Guerrero, Caja de Seguro Social, Colón, Panama
| | - Juan Rodriguez
- Compleo Hospitalario Manuel Amador Guerrero, Caja de Seguro Social, Colón, Panama
| | - Yaseikiry Perez
- Servicio de Hematología, Banco de Sangre. Complejo Hospitalario Metropolitano Dr. Arnulfo Arias Madrid, Caja de Seguro Social, Panama City, Panama
| | - Johanna Morris
- Servicio de Hematología. Complejo Hospitalario Metropolitano Dr. Arnulfo Arias Madrid, Caja de Seguro Social, Panama City, Panama
| | - Odemaris Luque
- Compleo Hospitalario Manuel Amador Guerrero, Caja de Seguro Social, Colón, Panama
| | - David Cortez
- Dirección Nacional de Laboratorios Clínicos, Ministerio de Salud, Panama City, Panama
| | | | - Rao Kosagisharaf
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades, City of Knowledge, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Panama City, Panama
| | - Ricardo Lleonart
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades, City of Knowledge, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Panama City, Panama
| | - Chong Li
- Institute of Biophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- Beijing Zhongke Jianlan Biotechnology Co. Ltd., Beijing, China
- Zhongke Jianlan International Medical Research Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Amador Goodridge
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades, City of Knowledge, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Panama City, Panama
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Acosta F, Norman A, Sambrano D, Batista V, Mokrousov I, Shitikov E, Jurado J, Mayrena M, Luque O, Garay M, Solís L, Muñoz P, Folkvardsen DB, Lillebaek T, Pérez-Lago L, Goodridge A, García de Viedma D. Probable long-term prevalence for a predominant Mycobacterium tuberculosis clone of a Beijing genotype in Colon, Panama. Transbound Emerg Dis 2020; 68:2229-2238. [PMID: 33048439 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13875] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2020] [Revised: 09/24/2020] [Accepted: 10/06/2020] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
Beijing genotype Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains associate with increased virulence, resistance and/or higher transmission rates. This study describes a specific Beijing strain predominantly identified in the Panamanian province of Colon with one of the highest incidences of tuberculosis in the country. Retrospective mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit/variable number of tandem repeats analysis of 42 isolates collected between January and August 2018 allowed to identify a cluster (Beijing A) with 17 (40.5%) Beijing isolates. Subsequent prospective strain-specific PCR-based surveillance from September 2019 to March 2020 confirmed the predominance of the Beijing A strain (44.1%) in this province. Whole-genome sequencing revealed higher-than-expected diversity within the cluster, suggesting long-term prevalence of this strain and low number of cases caused by recent transmission. The Beijing A strain belongs to the Asian African 3 (Bmyc13, L2.2.5) branch of the modern Beijing sublineage, with their closest isolates corresponding to cases from Vietnam, probably introduced in Panama between 2000 and 2012.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fermin Acosta
- Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain.,Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain
| | - Anders Norman
- International Reference Laboratory of Mycobacteriology, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Dilcia Sambrano
- Unidad de Investigaciones de Biomarcadores de Tuberculosis, Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de Enfermedades-Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Ciudad del Saber, Panama, Panama
| | - Victoria Batista
- Unidad de Investigaciones de Biomarcadores de Tuberculosis, Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de Enfermedades-Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Ciudad del Saber, Panama, Panama
| | - Igor Mokrousov
- Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology and Evolutionary Genetics, St. Petersburg Pasteur Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia
| | - Egor Shitikov
- Federal Research and Clinical Center of Physical-Chemical Medicine, Moscow, Russia
| | | | | | - Odemaris Luque
- Programa de Control de Tuberculosis, Ministerio de Salud, Colón, Panama
| | - Maybis Garay
- Unidad de Investigaciones de Biomarcadores de Tuberculosis, Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de Enfermedades-Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Ciudad del Saber, Panama, Panama
| | - Laura Solís
- Programa de Control de Tuberculosis, Ministerio de Salud, Colón, Panama
| | - Patricia Muñoz
- Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain.,Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain.,Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Respiratorias (CIBERES), Spain.,Departamento de Medicina, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Dorte B Folkvardsen
- International Reference Laboratory of Mycobacteriology, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Troels Lillebaek
- International Reference Laboratory of Mycobacteriology, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark.,Global Health Section, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Laura Pérez-Lago
- Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain.,Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain
| | - Amador Goodridge
- Unidad de Investigaciones de Biomarcadores de Tuberculosis, Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de Enfermedades-Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Ciudad del Saber, Panama, Panama
| | - Darío García de Viedma
- Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain.,Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain.,Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Respiratorias (CIBERES), Spain
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Rivas N, Espinoza M, Loban A, Luque O, Jurado J, Henry-Hurtado N, Goodridge A. Case Report: COVID-19 Recovery from Triple Infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, HIV, and SARS-CoV-2. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2020; 103:1597-1599. [PMID: 32815513 PMCID: PMC7543815 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.20-0756] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
COVID-19, designated as SARS-CoV-2, has caused millions of infections worldwide, including in patients with concomitant infections. Here, we report two unusual cases of patients with triple infections of SARS-CoV-2, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and HIV. Both cases were confirmed through microbiological and immunological studies. The acute respiratory phase in both patients was treated with supplemental oxygen. Antituberculosis and antiretroviral therapies were started simultaneously. In 2 weeks, both patients demonstrated clinical improvement and recovery from COVID-19. Our findings suggest that even in cases of triple infection, clinical management together with respiratory therapy contributes to patient survival.
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Affiliation(s)
- Neyla Rivas
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Complejo Hospitalario Dr. Manuel Amador Guerrero, Caja de Seguro Social, Colón, Panama
| | - Mario Espinoza
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Complejo Hospitalario Dr. Manuel Amador Guerrero, Caja de Seguro Social, Colón, Panama
| | - Alejandra Loban
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Complejo Hospitalario Dr. Manuel Amador Guerrero, Caja de Seguro Social, Colón, Panama
| | - Odemaris Luque
- Programa Regional de Control de Tuberculosis, Ministerio de Salud, Colón, Panama
| | - Julio Jurado
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Complejo Hospitalario Dr. Manuel Amador Guerrero, Caja de Seguro Social, Colón, Panama
| | - Nicolás Henry-Hurtado
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Complejo Hospitalario Dr. Manuel Amador Guerrero, Caja de Seguro Social, Colón, Panama
| | - Amador Goodridge
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología-INDICASAT-AIP, City of Knowledge, Panama City, Panama
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Deshpande A, Miller-Petrie MK, Lindstedt PA, Baumann MM, Johnson KB, Blacker BF, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abegaz KH, Abejie AN, Abreu LG, Abrigo MR, Abualhasan A, Accrombessi MMK, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adedeji IA, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhikari TB, Afarideh M, Agudelo-Botero M, Ahmadi M, Ahmadi K, Ahmed MB, Ahmed AE, Akalu TY, Akanda AS, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam S, Alam N, Alamene GM, Alanzi TM, Albright J, Albujeer A, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Alebel A, Alemu ZA, Ali M, Alijanzadeh M, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Almasi A, Almasi-Hashiani A, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Amini S, Amit AML, Amul GGH, Andrei CL, Anjomshoa M, Ansariadi A, Antonio CAT, Antony B, Antriyandarti E, Arabloo J, Aref HMA, Aremu O, Armoon B, Arora A, Aryal KK, Arzani A, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Asmelash D, Atalay HT, Athari SM, Athari SS, Atre SR, Ausloos M, Awasthi S, Awoke N, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Aynalem YA, Azari S, Azman AS, Babaee E, Badawi A, Bagherzadeh M, Bakkannavar SM, Balakrishnan S, Banach M, Banoub JAM, Barac A, Barboza MA, Bärnighausen TW, Basu S, Bay VD, Bayati M, Bedi N, Beheshti M, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Bejarano Ramirez DF, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Benzian H, Berbada DA, Bernstein RS, Bhat AG, Bhattacharyya K, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bin Sayeed MS, Biswas RK, Bohlouli S, Boufous S, Brady OJ, Briko AN, Briko NI, Britton GB, Brown A, Burugina Nagaraja S, Butt ZA, Cámera LA, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cano J, Car J, Cárdenas R, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro F, Cerin E, Chalise B, Chattu VK, Chin KL, Christopher DJ, Chu DT, Cormier NM, Costa VM, Cromwell EA, Dadi AFF, Dahiru T, Dahlawi SMA, Dandona R, Dandona L, Dang AK, Daoud F, Darwesh AM, Darwish AH, Daryani A, Das JK, Das Gupta R, Dash AP, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davis Weaver N, De la Hoz FP, De Neve JW, Demissie DB, Demoz GT, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Desalew A, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon P, Dhimal M, Dhungana GP, Diaz D, Dipeolu IO, Do HT, Dolecek C, Doyle KE, Dubljanin E, Duraes AR, Edinur HA, Effiong A, Eftekhari A, El Nahas N, El Sayed Zaki M, El Tantawi M, Elhabashy HR, El-Jaafary SI, El-Khatib Z, Elkout H, Elsharkawy A, Enany S, Endalew DA, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Etemadi A, Ezekannagha O, Faraon EJA, Fareed M, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fasil AF, Fazlzadeh M, Feigin VL, Fekadu W, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Filip I, Fischer F, Flohr C, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Foroutan M, Franklin RC, Frostad JJ, Fukumoto T, Gad MM, Garcia GM, Gatotoh AM, Gayesa RT, Gebremedhin KB, Geramo YCD, Gesesew HA, Gezae KE, Ghashghaee A, Ghazi Sherbaf F, Gill TK, Gill PS, Ginindza TG, Girmay A, Gizaw Z, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goulart BNG, Goulart AC, Grada A, Green MS, Gubari MIM, Gugnani HC, Guido D, Guimarães RA, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Ha GH, Haagsma JA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile DH, Haile MT, Hall BJ, Hamidi S, Handiso DW, Haririan H, Hariyani N, Hasaballah AI, Hasan MM, Hasanzadeh A, Hassen HY, Hayelom DH, Hegazy MI, Heibati B, Heidari B, Hendrie D, Henok A, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Hidru HDD, Hird TR, Hoang CL, Hollerich GI, Hoogar P, Hossain N, Hosseinzadeh M, Househ M, Hu G, Humayun A, Hussain SA, Hussen MAA, Ibitoye SE, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic MD, Imani-Nasab MH, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Islam SMS, Ivers RQ, Iwu CJ, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic M, Jalali A, Jayatilleke AU, Jenabi E, Jha RP, Jha V, Ji JS, Jonas JB, Jozwiak JJ, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kanchan T, Karch A, Karki S, Kasaeian A, Kasahun GG, Kasaye HK, Kassa GG, Kassa GM, Kayode GA, Kebede MM, Keiyoro PN, Ketema DB, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khalid N, Khalilov R, Khan EA, Khan J, Khan MN, Khatab K, Khater MM, Khater AM, Khayamzadeh M, Khazaei M, Khosravi MH, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri A, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kisa S, Kisa A, Kochhar S, Kolola T, Komaki H, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Kuate Defo B, Kugbey N, Kumar P, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kusuma D, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Lal A, Lal DK, Lam H, Lami FH, Lansingh VC, Lasrado S, Lebedev G, Lee PH, LeGrand KE, Leili M, Lenjebo TL, Leshargie CT, Levine AJ, Lewycka S, Li S, Linn S, Liu S, Lopez JCF, Lopukhov PD, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Mahadeshwara Prasad D, Mahasha PW, Mahotra NB, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manafi N, Mansournia MA, Mapoma CC, Martinez G, Martini S, Martins-Melo FR, Mathur MR, Mayala BK, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, Meharie BG, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mehta KM, Mekonnen T, Mekonnen TC, Meles GG, Meles HG, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mereta ST, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Metekiya WM, Metekiya WM, Miazgowski B, Miller TR, Mini GK, Mirrakhimov EM, Moazen B, Mohajer B, Mohammad Y, Mohammad DK, Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N, Mohammadibakhsh R, Mohammed S, Mohammed JA, Mohammed H, Mohebi F, Mokdad AH, Moodley Y, Moradi M, Moradi G, Moradi-Joo M, Moraga P, Morales L, Mosapour A, Mosser JF, Mouodi S, Mousavi SM, Mozaffor M, Munro SB, Muriithi MK, Murray CJL, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi M, Naik G, Nangia V, Nascimento BR, Nazari J, Ndwandwe DE, Negoi I, Netsere HB, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen CT, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen QP, Nigatu SG, Ningrum DNA, Nnaji CA, Nojomi M, Norheim OF, Noubiap JJ, Oancea B, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Olagunju AT, Olusanya JO, Olusanya BO, Onwujekwe OE, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Osarenotor O, Osei FB, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Pakhale S, Pana A, Park EK, Patel SK, Pathak A, Patle A, Paulos K, Pepito VCF, Perico N, Pervaiz A, Pescarini JM, Pesudovs K, Pham HQ, Pigott DM, Pilgrim T, Pirsaheb M, Poljak M, Pollock I, Postma MJ, Pourmalek F, Pourshams A, Prada SI, Preotescu L, Quintana H, Rabiee N, Rabiee M, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi S, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MA, Rahman MHU, Rajati F, Ranabhat CL, Rao PC, Rasella D, Rath GK, Rawaf S, Rawal L, Rawasia WF, Remuzzi G, Renjith V, Renzaho AM, Resnikoff S, Riahi SM, Ribeiro AI, Rickard J, Roever L, Ronfani L, Rubagotti E, Rubino S, Saad AM, Sabour S, Sadeghi E, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Safari Y, Sagar R, Sahraian MA, Sajadi SM, Salahshoor MR, Salam N, Saleem A, Salem H, Salem MR, Salimi Y, Salimzadeh H, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santos IS, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Saraswathy SYI, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sathian B, Sathish T, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Sayyah M, Sbarra AN, Schaeffer LE, Schwebel DC, Senbeta AM, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Shafieesabet A, Shaheen AA, Shahid I, Shaikh MA, Shalash AS, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Shannawaz M, Sharafi K, Sharma R, Sheikh A, Shetty BSK, Shiferaw WS, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shivakumar KM, Si S, Siabani S, Siddiqi TJ, Silva DAS, Singh V, Singh NP, Singh BBS, Singh JA, Singh A, Sinha DN, Sisay MM, Skiadaresi E, Smith DL, Soares Filho AM, Sobhiyeh MR, Sokhan A, Soriano JB, Sorrie MB, Soyiri IN, Spurlock EE, Sreeramareddy CT, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Suleria HAR, Sykes BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabuchi T, Tadesse DB, Tarigan IU, Taye B, Tefera YM, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekelemedhin SW, Tekle MG, Temsah MH, Tesfay BE, Tesfay FH, Tessema ZT, Thankappan KR, ThekkePurakkal AS, Thomas N, Thompson RL, Thomson AJ, Topor-Madry R, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tran BX, Tran KB, Ullah I, Unnikrishnan B, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Uzochukwu BSC, Valdez PR, Varughese S, Veisani Y, Violante FS, Vollmer S, W/hawariat FG, Waheed Y, Wallin MT, Wang YP, Wang Y, Wangdi K, Weiss DJ, Weldesamuel GT, Werkneh AA, Westerman R, Wiangkham T, Wiens KE, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Wolde HF, Wondafrash DZ, Wonde TE, Worku GT, Yadollahpour A, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamada T, Yaseri M, Yatsuya H, Yeshaneh A, Yilma MT, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yousof HASA, Yu C, Yusefzadeh H, Zadey S, Zahirian Moghadam T, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zandian H, Zar HJ, Zerfu TA, Zhang Y, Ziapour A, Zodpey S, Zuniga YMH, Hay SI, Reiner RC. Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17. Lancet Glob Health 2020; 8:e1162-e1185. [PMID: 32827479 PMCID: PMC7443708 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30278-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2020] [Revised: 05/01/2020] [Accepted: 06/04/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. METHODS We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. FINDINGS Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. INTERPRETATION Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Cubilla-Batista I, Ruiz N, Sambrano D, Castillo J, de Quinzada MO, Gasteluiturri B, Goodridge A. Overweight, Obesity, and Older Age Favor Latent Tuberculosis Infection among Household Contacts in Low Tuberculosis-Incidence Settings within Panama. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2020; 100:1141-1144. [PMID: 30915957 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.18-0927] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) remains the main source of new active tuberculosis (TB) cases worldwide. Household close contacts (HCCs) are at high risk of acquiring LTBI and subsequent development of TB. In this study, we aim to identify risk factors associated with LTBI in HCCs of TB patients living in a low TB-incidence setting. Our results revealed that HCCs who are aged more than 50 years (OR = 4.05) and overweight (OR = 15.3) are at higher risk of acquiring LTBI. None of these LTBI household contacts progressed to active TB. These findings suggest that HCCs who are young adults and children with normal and low body mass index are less likely to acquire LTBI after exposure to TB patients, even in low TB-incidence settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Idalina Cubilla-Batista
- Laboratorio Clínico, Hospital Rafael Estevez, Caja de Seguro Social, Aguadulce, Panama.,Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Ciudad del Saber, Panama
| | - Nadia Ruiz
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Ciudad del Saber, Panama.,Maestría de Ciencias Biomédicas, Facultad de Medicina de la Universidad de Panamá, Panama City, Panama.,Laboratorio Clínico, Hospital Rafael Estevez, Caja de Seguro Social, Aguadulce, Panama
| | - Dilcia Sambrano
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Ciudad del Saber, Panama
| | - Juan Castillo
- Facultad de Informática, Electrónica y Comunicación, Extensión Universitaria de Aguadulce, Universidad de Panamá, Coclé, Panama
| | - Markela O de Quinzada
- Maestría de Ciencias Biomédicas, Facultad de Medicina de la Universidad de Panamá, Panama City, Panama
| | - Begoña Gasteluiturri
- Laboratorio Clínico, Hospital Rafael Estevez, Caja de Seguro Social, Aguadulce, Panama
| | - Amador Goodridge
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Ciudad del Saber, Panama
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Rengifo-Herrera CDC, Reyes JC, Magaña AM, Acosta F, Ponder J, Goodridge A. Avian Mycobacteriosis in a Rescued Harpy Eagle from Darien Forest, Panama. ACTA SCI VET 2019. [DOI: 10.22456/1679-9216.96502] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
Background: The Harpy eagle (Harpia harpyia) is the largest raptor in the Neotropical region, distributed in low densities within primary forest habitats from southern Mexico to east-central Brazil, including Central America and Panama. Although locally extinct due to habitat degradation, human poaching and reduction of tropical forests in recent decades, some remnant populations are known to be small and isolated. Thus, information on its ecology, including infectious diseases, is critical for conservation efforts and management of populations of this emblematic species in the wild. Avian Mycobacteriosis (AM) is a chronic disease affecting a wide range of birds and mammals and clinical cases have been sporadically reported, although in harpy eagles, has not been documented. In addition, scant information exists on pathologies affecting raptors, therefore, this report expands the knowledge on infectious diseases affecting wild birds. This study describes the first case of AM in an immature harpy eagle rescued from Darien gap and presents details of the clinical manifestation of the disease and its histological findings.Case: An immature harpy eagle was presented to a rescue center after being confiscated by Ministry of Environment from a local farm in a remote region of Eastern Panama, in the Darien gap. The raptor had a history of having been kept in captivity for approximately five weeks, cohabiting with backyard poultry and fed corn, raw duck and chicken provided by farm owners. Stagnant water was offered for drinking. The harpy eagle arrived to the facility very lethargic and emaciated. Physical examination revealed damaged plumage, poor body condition and dyspnea. Complete blood count revealed anemia and leukocytosis based on lymphocytosis and eosinophilia. Biochemical profile evidenced an increased level of aspartate aminotransferase (AST), phosphorus and total plasma protein. Most remarkable radiographic findings were splenomegaly, hepatomegaly and increased opacity in kidneys, intestines, and aerial sacs. None of the other diagnostic tests performed were conclusive, like tracheal, esophageal and cloacal cultures for fungal infection and fecal exam. After one week of treatment, it showed a remarkable recovery, but at the end of the second week, declined dramatically, dying in the third week of treatment. Post-mortem examination revealed the presence of diffuse granulomas in multiple organs. Histologic examination with gram and Ziehl Neelsen staining revealed the presence of gram-positive and acid-fast bacteria, compatible with Mycobacterium-like bacilli. PCR-restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of the hsp65, digested with BstEII and HaEIII restriction enzymes confirmed the presence Mycobacterium avium complex in tissues samples.Discussion: This is the first report of AM in a harpy eagle, presenting an extreme emaciation with dyspnea, abnormalities in spleen, liver and air sacs. Biochemical and hematological parameters revealed alterations consistent with infection and organ malfunctions in liver, but Mycobacteriosis was not suspected initially and it was necessary to support the diagnosis with histopathological studies and DNA amplification for a proper identification of the disease. This allowed us to confirm that ante-mortem clinical diagnosis of Avian Mycobacteriosis can be challenging, especially in birds who usually show non-specific signs of the disease and external lesions are not commonly observed. Further studies are requiring to determine the characteristics and clinical signs of this disease in this and other raptors. Also, to determine the source of infection affecting raptors and other protected species in the Neotropical region, especially for diseases with relevance in the conservation of birds and animal health control.
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Torres-Atencio I, Rosero S, Ordoñez C, Ruiz M, Goodridge A. Mycobacterial Lipids Induce Calcium Mobilization and Degranulation of Mast Cells. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2019; 198:813-816. [PMID: 29897782 DOI: 10.1164/rccm.201803-0436le] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Ivonne Torres-Atencio
- 1 Universidad de Panamá Panamá, Panama and.,2 Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología Ciudad del Saber, Panama
| | - Sara Rosero
- 2 Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología Ciudad del Saber, Panama
| | - Ciara Ordoñez
- 2 Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología Ciudad del Saber, Panama
| | - Michelle Ruiz
- 1 Universidad de Panamá Panamá, Panama and.,2 Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología Ciudad del Saber, Panama
| | - Amador Goodridge
- 2 Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología Ciudad del Saber, Panama
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Whittington R, Donat K, Weber MF, Kelton D, Nielsen SS, Eisenberg S, Arrigoni N, Juste R, Sáez JL, Dhand N, Santi A, Michel A, Barkema H, Kralik P, Kostoulas P, Citer L, Griffin F, Barwell R, Moreira MAS, Slana I, Koehler H, Singh SV, Yoo HS, Chávez-Gris G, Goodridge A, Ocepek M, Garrido J, Stevenson K, Collins M, Alonso B, Cirone K, Paolicchi F, Gavey L, Rahman MT, de Marchin E, Van Praet W, Bauman C, Fecteau G, McKenna S, Salgado M, Fernández-Silva J, Dziedzinska R, Echeverría G, Seppänen J, Thibault V, Fridriksdottir V, Derakhshandeh A, Haghkhah M, Ruocco L, Kawaji S, Momotani E, Heuer C, Norton S, Cadmus S, Agdestein A, Kampen A, Szteyn J, Frössling J, Schwan E, Caldow G, Strain S, Carter M, Wells S, Munyeme M, Wolf R, Gurung R, Verdugo C, Fourichon C, Yamamoto T, Thapaliya S, Di Labio E, Ekgatat M, Gil A, Alesandre AN, Piaggio J, Suanes A, de Waard JH. Control of paratuberculosis: who, why and how. A review of 48 countries. BMC Vet Res 2019; 15:198. [PMID: 31196162 PMCID: PMC6567393 DOI: 10.1186/s12917-019-1943-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 162] [Impact Index Per Article: 32.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2018] [Accepted: 05/31/2019] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Paratuberculosis, a chronic disease affecting ruminant livestock, is caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). It has direct and indirect economic costs, impacts animal welfare and arouses public health concerns. In a survey of 48 countries we found paratuberculosis to be very common in livestock. In about half the countries more than 20% of herds and flocks were infected with MAP. Most countries had large ruminant populations (millions), several types of farmed ruminants, multiple husbandry systems and tens of thousands of individual farms, creating challenges for disease control. In addition, numerous species of free-living wildlife were infected. Paratuberculosis was notifiable in most countries, but formal control programs were present in only 22 countries. Generally, these were the more highly developed countries with advanced veterinary services. Of the countries without a formal control program for paratuberculosis, 76% were in South and Central America, Asia and Africa while 20% were in Europe. Control programs were justified most commonly on animal health grounds, but protecting market access and public health were other factors. Prevalence reduction was the major objective in most countries, but Norway and Sweden aimed to eradicate the disease, so surveillance and response were their major objectives. Government funding was involved in about two thirds of countries, but operations tended to be funded by farmers and their organizations and not by government alone. The majority of countries (60%) had voluntary control programs. Generally, programs were supported by incentives for joining, financial compensation and/or penalties for non-participation. Performance indicators, structure, leadership, practices and tools used in control programs are also presented. Securing funding for long-term control activities was a widespread problem. Control programs were reported to be successful in 16 (73%) of the 22 countries. Recommendations are made for future control programs, including a primary goal of establishing an international code for paratuberculosis, leading to universal acknowledgment of the principles and methods of control in relation to endemic and transboundary disease. An holistic approach across all ruminant livestock industries and long-term commitment is required for control of paratuberculosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Richard Whittington
- School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, University of Sydney, 425 Werombi Road, Camden, NSW 2570 Australia
| | - Karsten Donat
- Animal Health Service, Thuringian Animal Diseases Fund, 07745 Jena, Germany
- Clinic for Obstetrics, Gynecology and Andrology with Veterinary Ambulance, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, 35392 Giessen, Germany
| | | | - David Kelton
- Department of Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario N1G 2W1 Canada
| | - Søren Saxmose Nielsen
- Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, University of Copenhagen, DK-1870 Frederiksberg C, Denmark
| | | | - Norma Arrigoni
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Lombardia e dell’Emilia Romagna, 29027 Podenzano, Italy
| | - Ramon Juste
- Servicio Regional de Investigación y Desarrollo Agroalimentario (SERIDA), 33300 Villaviciosa, Asturias Spain
| | - Jose Luis Sáez
- Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, Food and Environment, ES-28071 Madrid, Spain
| | - Navneet Dhand
- School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, University of Sydney, 425 Werombi Road, Camden, NSW 2570 Australia
| | - Annalisa Santi
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale della Lombardia e dell’Emilia Romagna, 29027 Podenzano, Italy
| | - Anita Michel
- Faculty of Veterinary Science, University of Pretoria, Onderstepoort, 0110 South Africa
| | - Herman Barkema
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta T2N 4N1 Canada
| | - Petr Kralik
- Veterinary Research Institute, 621 00 Brno, Czech Republic
| | | | - Lorna Citer
- Animal Health Ireland, Carrick on Shannon, Co. Leitrim, N41 WN27 Republic of Ireland
| | - Frank Griffin
- Disease Research Limited, Invermay Agricultural Centre, Mosgiel, 9092 New Zealand
| | - Rob Barwell
- Animal Health Australia, Turner, ACT 2612 Australia
| | | | - Iva Slana
- Veterinary Research Institute, 621 00 Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Heike Koehler
- Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Federal Research Institute of Animal Health, 07743 Jena, Germany
| | - Shoor Vir Singh
- Deparment of Biotechnology, GLA University, Mathura, Uttar Pradesh 281 406 India
| | - Han Sang Yoo
- Department of Infectious Diseases, College of Veterinary Medicine, Seoul National University, Seoul, 08826 South Korea
| | - Gilberto Chávez-Gris
- Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de México, 76750 Tequisquiapan, Queretaro, Mexico
| | - Amador Goodridge
- Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología, City of Knowledge, Panama City, 0843-01103 Panama
| | - Matjaz Ocepek
- National Veterinary Institute, Veterinary Faculty, University of Ljubljana, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - Joseba Garrido
- Instituto Vasco de Investigacion y Desarrollo Agrario-NEIKER, 48160 Derio, Bizkaia Spain
| | | | - Mike Collins
- School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Wisconsin, 53706-1102 USA
| | | | - Karina Cirone
- Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria, 7620 Balcarce, Argentina
| | | | - Lawrence Gavey
- Biosecurity Queensland, Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, Toowoomba, Queensland 4350 Australia
| | - Md Tanvir Rahman
- Faculty of Veterinary Science, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, 2202 Bangladesh
| | | | | | - Cathy Bauman
- Department of Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario N1G 2W1 Canada
| | - Gilles Fecteau
- Faculté de Médecine Vétérinaire, University of Montreal, Quebec, J2S 6Z9 Canada
| | - Shawn McKenna
- Atlantic Veterinary College, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island C1A 4P3 Canada
| | - Miguel Salgado
- Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias, Universidad Austral de Chile, 5090000 Valdivia, Chile
| | - Jorge Fernández-Silva
- Escuela de Medicina Veterinaria, Universidad de Antioquia, Medellín, Antioquia 050034076 Colombia
| | | | - Gustavo Echeverría
- Instituto de Investigación en Salud Pública y Zoonosis, Universidad Central del Ecuador, 17-03-100 Quito, Ecuador
| | - Jaana Seppänen
- Finnish Food Authority, Mustialankatu 3, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Virginie Thibault
- ANSES Laboratoire de Ploufragan-Plouzané-Niort and GDS France, CS 28440, 79024 Niort Cedex, France
| | - Vala Fridriksdottir
- Institute for Experimental Pathology at Keldur, University of Iceland, IS-112 Reykjavík, Iceland
| | | | - Masoud Haghkhah
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Shiraz University, Shiraz, 71441-69155 Iran
| | - Luigi Ruocco
- Ministry of Health, General Directorate of Animal Health and Veterinary Medicines, 00144 Rome, Italy
| | - Satoko Kawaji
- National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-0856 Japan
| | - Eiichi Momotani
- Comparative Medical Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0856 Japan
| | - Cord Heuer
- School of Veterinary Sciences, Massey University, Palmerston North, 4441 New Zealand
| | | | - Simeon Cadmus
- Department of Veterinary Public Health and Preventive Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | | | | | - Joanna Szteyn
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Warmia and Mazury, 10-718 Olsztyn, Poland
| | | | - Ebba Schwan
- Swedish Farm and Animal Health, 62254 Romakloster, Sweden
| | | | - Sam Strain
- Animal Health and Welfare Northern Ireland, Dungannon Enterprise Centre, Dungannon, BT71 6JT UK
| | - Mike Carter
- USDA-APHIS-Veterinary Services, Riverdale, MD 20737 USA
| | - Scott Wells
- College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108 USA
| | - Musso Munyeme
- School of Veterinary Medicine, The University of Zambia, 10101 Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Robert Wolf
- Fachabteilung Gesundheit und Pflegemanagement, 8010 Graz, Austria
| | - Ratna Gurung
- National Centre for Animal Health, Serbithang, Bhutan
| | - Cristobal Verdugo
- Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias, Universidad Austral de Chile, 5090000 Valdivia, Chile
| | - Christine Fourichon
- Oniris – INRA, Department Farm Animal Health and Public Health, 44307 Nantes cedex 3, France
| | - Takehisa Yamamoto
- National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-0856 Japan
| | - Sharada Thapaliya
- Faculty of Animal Science, Veterinary Science and Fisheries, Agriculture and Forestry University, Rampur, Chitwan Nepal
| | - Elena Di Labio
- Federal Food Safety and Veterinary Office, 3003 Bern, Switzerland
| | - Monaya Ekgatat
- National Institute of Animal Health, Chatuchak, Bangkok, 10900 Thailand
| | - Andres Gil
- Facultad de Veterinaria, Lasplaces 1620, CP 11600 Montevideo, Uruguay
| | | | - José Piaggio
- Facultad de Veterinaria, Lasplaces 1620, CP 11600 Montevideo, Uruguay
| | - Alejandra Suanes
- Ministry of Livestock Agriculture and Fisheries of Uruguay, CP 11300 Montevideo, Uruguay
| | - Jacobus H. de Waard
- Servicio Autonomo Instituto de Biomedicina, Universidad Central de Venezuela, Caracas, Venezuela
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Cubilla I, Rios M, Batista V, Rosero S, Sambrano D, Castillo J, Colon-Ramos U, Cleary SD, Goodridge A, Luque O, Simmons ID, Chavez AD, Cuadra Y, Jurado J, Gonzalez R, Williams V. Reduced Food Intake Among Tuberculosis Patients Within an Urban Setting in Panama (P10-023-19). Curr Dev Nutr 2019. [DOI: 10.1093/cdn/nzz034.p10-023-19] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Objectives
The aim of our study is to characterize the dietary factors and food items intake of people living with pulmonary tuberculosis in an urban and high disease incidence city in Panama.
Methods
We recruited 41 participants newly diagnosed with pulmonary tuberculosis. We applied a culturally adapted version of the NHANES Food Screener to estimate dietary median intakes and to evaluate daily and weekly frequencies of consumption. All frequencies reported were converted to daily frequency to describe the dietary patterns and make estimations. Direct observed anti-tuberculosis therapy was provided to all participants.
Results
Among the participants, 20% were female, the average age was 38.9 years old, the average body mass index was 20.4 and 16% were patients living with HIV. When comparing the consumption frequency reported by the TB patients with the Panamanian Dietary recommendations, these patients did not meet the minimal frequency intake of fruit and whole grain. Only 30% of participants achieved the recommended fruit frequency intake. We also found that only 37% of participants meet the recommended consumption of at least 3 times a week of beans and legumes. In contrast, a high number of these TB patients (34/41) reported a daily vegetable intake frequency and a mean of 25 teaspoons of added sugar daily intake. For sugar-sweetened beverages intake, we found a mean frequency intake of twice a day and 73% of our participants had a daily consumption of any dairy product. A total of 63% of our participants reported consumption of processed meat more than twice a week.
Conclusions
The food intake pattern in patients suffering tuberculosis includes daily consumption of vegetables, frequent consumption of dairy products and sport or fruit drinks, but a low frequency of fruits, beans, and legumes. These findings suggest that the protective dietary factors including fruits and whole grain are not consumed at the minimum requirement intake to improve general health in our patient group. We recommend decreasing processed meat intake among patients suffering tuberculosis. Also, we recommend the use of diet supplementation programs to improve anti-tuberculosis treatment success rates. Food security investigations to determine the extent of limitations to access healthy food remain key for improving disease control.
Funding Sources
Secretaria Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia de Panama (SENACYT).
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Maritza Rios
- Centro de Nutricion, Consultorios Hospital Punta Pacifica
| | - Victoria Batista
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Instituto de Investigaciones Cientificas y Servicios de Alta
| | - Sara Rosero
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Instituto de Investigaciones Cientificas y Servicios de Alta
| | - Dilcia Sambrano
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Instituto de Investigaciones Cientificas y Servicios de Alta
| | - Juan Castillo
- Extension Universitaria de Aguadulce, Universidad de Panama
| | | | - Sean D Cleary
- Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University
| | - Amador Goodridge
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Instituto de Investigaciones Cientificas y Servicios de Alta
| | - Odemaris Luque
- Programa Regional Contra la Tuberculosis, Ministerio de Salud
| | | | - Ana de Chavez
- Programa Regional Contra la Tuberculosis, Ministerio de Salud
| | | | - Julio Jurado
- Hospital Manuel Amador Guerrero, Caja de Seguro Social
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Domínguez J, Acosta F, Pérez-Lago L, Sambrano D, Batista V, De La Guardia C, Abascal E, Chiner-Oms Á, Comas I, González P, Bravo J, Del Cid P, Rosas S, Muñoz P, Goodridge A, García de Viedma D. Simplified Model to Survey Tuberculosis Transmission in Countries Without Systematic Molecular Epidemiology Programs. Emerg Infect Dis 2019; 25:507-514. [PMID: 30789134 PMCID: PMC6390753 DOI: 10.3201/eid2503.181593] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Systematic molecular/genomic epidemiology studies for tuberculosis surveillance cannot be implemented in many countries. We selected Panama as a model for an alternative strategy. Mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit-variable-number tandem-repeat (MIRU-VNTR) analysis revealed a high proportion (50%) of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates included in 6 clusters (A-F) in 2 provinces (Panama and Colon). Cluster A corresponded to the Beijing sublineage. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) differentiated clusters due to active recent transmission, with low single-nucleotide polymorphism-based diversity (cluster C), from clusters involving long-term prevalent strains with higher diversity (clusters A, B). Prospective application in Panama of 3 tailored strain-specific PCRs targeting marker single-nucleotide polymorphisms identified from WGS data revealed that 31.4% of incident cases involved strains A-C and that the Beijing strain was highly represented and restricted mainly to Colon. Rational integration of MIRU-VNTR, WGS, and tailored strain-specific PCRs could be a new model for tuberculosis surveillance in countries without molecular/genomic epidemiology programs.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Laura Pérez-Lago
- Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología, City of Knowledge, Panama (J. Domínguez, F. Acosta, D. Sambrano, V. Batista, C. De La Guardia, A. Goodridge)
- Instituto Conmemorativo Gorgas de Estudios de la Salud, Panama City, Panama (J. Domínguez, P. González, J. Bravo, P. Del Cid, S. Rosas)
- Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Centro Superior de investigación en Salud Pública (FISABIO)–Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain (Á. Chiner-Oms)
- Instituto de Biomedicina de Valencia Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Valencia (I. Comas)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red en Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid (I. Comas)
- Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid (P. Muñoz)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Respiratorias, Madrid (P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
| | - Dilcia Sambrano
- Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología, City of Knowledge, Panama (J. Domínguez, F. Acosta, D. Sambrano, V. Batista, C. De La Guardia, A. Goodridge)
- Instituto Conmemorativo Gorgas de Estudios de la Salud, Panama City, Panama (J. Domínguez, P. González, J. Bravo, P. Del Cid, S. Rosas)
- Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Centro Superior de investigación en Salud Pública (FISABIO)–Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain (Á. Chiner-Oms)
- Instituto de Biomedicina de Valencia Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Valencia (I. Comas)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red en Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid (I. Comas)
- Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid (P. Muñoz)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Respiratorias, Madrid (P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
| | - Victoria Batista
- Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología, City of Knowledge, Panama (J. Domínguez, F. Acosta, D. Sambrano, V. Batista, C. De La Guardia, A. Goodridge)
- Instituto Conmemorativo Gorgas de Estudios de la Salud, Panama City, Panama (J. Domínguez, P. González, J. Bravo, P. Del Cid, S. Rosas)
- Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Centro Superior de investigación en Salud Pública (FISABIO)–Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain (Á. Chiner-Oms)
- Instituto de Biomedicina de Valencia Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Valencia (I. Comas)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red en Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid (I. Comas)
- Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid (P. Muñoz)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Respiratorias, Madrid (P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
| | - Carolina De La Guardia
- Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología, City of Knowledge, Panama (J. Domínguez, F. Acosta, D. Sambrano, V. Batista, C. De La Guardia, A. Goodridge)
- Instituto Conmemorativo Gorgas de Estudios de la Salud, Panama City, Panama (J. Domínguez, P. González, J. Bravo, P. Del Cid, S. Rosas)
- Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Centro Superior de investigación en Salud Pública (FISABIO)–Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain (Á. Chiner-Oms)
- Instituto de Biomedicina de Valencia Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Valencia (I. Comas)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red en Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid (I. Comas)
- Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid (P. Muñoz)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Respiratorias, Madrid (P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
| | - Estefanía Abascal
- Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología, City of Knowledge, Panama (J. Domínguez, F. Acosta, D. Sambrano, V. Batista, C. De La Guardia, A. Goodridge)
- Instituto Conmemorativo Gorgas de Estudios de la Salud, Panama City, Panama (J. Domínguez, P. González, J. Bravo, P. Del Cid, S. Rosas)
- Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Centro Superior de investigación en Salud Pública (FISABIO)–Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain (Á. Chiner-Oms)
- Instituto de Biomedicina de Valencia Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Valencia (I. Comas)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red en Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid (I. Comas)
- Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid (P. Muñoz)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Respiratorias, Madrid (P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
| | - Álvaro Chiner-Oms
- Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología, City of Knowledge, Panama (J. Domínguez, F. Acosta, D. Sambrano, V. Batista, C. De La Guardia, A. Goodridge)
- Instituto Conmemorativo Gorgas de Estudios de la Salud, Panama City, Panama (J. Domínguez, P. González, J. Bravo, P. Del Cid, S. Rosas)
- Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Centro Superior de investigación en Salud Pública (FISABIO)–Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain (Á. Chiner-Oms)
- Instituto de Biomedicina de Valencia Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Valencia (I. Comas)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red en Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid (I. Comas)
- Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid (P. Muñoz)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Respiratorias, Madrid (P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
| | - Iñaki Comas
- Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología, City of Knowledge, Panama (J. Domínguez, F. Acosta, D. Sambrano, V. Batista, C. De La Guardia, A. Goodridge)
- Instituto Conmemorativo Gorgas de Estudios de la Salud, Panama City, Panama (J. Domínguez, P. González, J. Bravo, P. Del Cid, S. Rosas)
- Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Centro Superior de investigación en Salud Pública (FISABIO)–Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain (Á. Chiner-Oms)
- Instituto de Biomedicina de Valencia Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Valencia (I. Comas)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red en Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid (I. Comas)
- Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid (P. Muñoz)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Respiratorias, Madrid (P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
| | - Prudencio González
- Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología, City of Knowledge, Panama (J. Domínguez, F. Acosta, D. Sambrano, V. Batista, C. De La Guardia, A. Goodridge)
- Instituto Conmemorativo Gorgas de Estudios de la Salud, Panama City, Panama (J. Domínguez, P. González, J. Bravo, P. Del Cid, S. Rosas)
- Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Centro Superior de investigación en Salud Pública (FISABIO)–Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain (Á. Chiner-Oms)
- Instituto de Biomedicina de Valencia Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Valencia (I. Comas)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red en Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid (I. Comas)
- Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid (P. Muñoz)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Respiratorias, Madrid (P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
| | - Jaime Bravo
- Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología, City of Knowledge, Panama (J. Domínguez, F. Acosta, D. Sambrano, V. Batista, C. De La Guardia, A. Goodridge)
- Instituto Conmemorativo Gorgas de Estudios de la Salud, Panama City, Panama (J. Domínguez, P. González, J. Bravo, P. Del Cid, S. Rosas)
- Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Centro Superior de investigación en Salud Pública (FISABIO)–Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain (Á. Chiner-Oms)
- Instituto de Biomedicina de Valencia Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Valencia (I. Comas)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red en Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid (I. Comas)
- Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid (P. Muñoz)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Respiratorias, Madrid (P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
| | - Pedro Del Cid
- Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología, City of Knowledge, Panama (J. Domínguez, F. Acosta, D. Sambrano, V. Batista, C. De La Guardia, A. Goodridge)
- Instituto Conmemorativo Gorgas de Estudios de la Salud, Panama City, Panama (J. Domínguez, P. González, J. Bravo, P. Del Cid, S. Rosas)
- Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Centro Superior de investigación en Salud Pública (FISABIO)–Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain (Á. Chiner-Oms)
- Instituto de Biomedicina de Valencia Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Valencia (I. Comas)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red en Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid (I. Comas)
- Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid (P. Muñoz)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Respiratorias, Madrid (P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
| | - Samantha Rosas
- Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología, City of Knowledge, Panama (J. Domínguez, F. Acosta, D. Sambrano, V. Batista, C. De La Guardia, A. Goodridge)
- Instituto Conmemorativo Gorgas de Estudios de la Salud, Panama City, Panama (J. Domínguez, P. González, J. Bravo, P. Del Cid, S. Rosas)
- Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Centro Superior de investigación en Salud Pública (FISABIO)–Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain (Á. Chiner-Oms)
- Instituto de Biomedicina de Valencia Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Valencia (I. Comas)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red en Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid (I. Comas)
- Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid (P. Muñoz)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Respiratorias, Madrid (P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
| | - Patricia Muñoz
- Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología, City of Knowledge, Panama (J. Domínguez, F. Acosta, D. Sambrano, V. Batista, C. De La Guardia, A. Goodridge)
- Instituto Conmemorativo Gorgas de Estudios de la Salud, Panama City, Panama (J. Domínguez, P. González, J. Bravo, P. Del Cid, S. Rosas)
- Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain (F. Acosta, L. Pérez-Lago, E. Abascal, P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
- Centro Superior de investigación en Salud Pública (FISABIO)–Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain (Á. Chiner-Oms)
- Instituto de Biomedicina de Valencia Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Valencia (I. Comas)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red en Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid (I. Comas)
- Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid (P. Muñoz)
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Respiratorias, Madrid (P. Muñoz, D. García de Viedma)
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Kyu HH, Maddison ER, Henry NJ, Ledesma JR, Wiens KE, Reiner R, Biehl MH, Shields C, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Ross JM, Carter A, Frank TD, Wang H, Srinivasan V, Agarwal SK, Alahdab F, Alene KA, Ali BA, Alvis-Guzman N, Andrews JR, Antonio CAT, Atique S, Atre SR, Awasthi A, Ayele HT, Badali H, Badawi A, Barac A, Bedi N, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Bekele BB, Belay SA, Bensenor IM, Butt ZA, Carvalho F, Cercy K, Christopher DJ, Daba AK, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daryani A, Demeke FM, Deribe K, Dharmaratne SD, Doku DT, Dubey M, Edessa D, El-Khatib Z, Enany S, Fernandes E, Fischer F, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebre AK, Gebregergs GB, Gebremichael TG, Gelano TF, Geremew D, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gupta R, Haghparast Bidgoli H, Hailu GB, Hassen HY, Hedayati MTT, Henok A, Hostiuc S, Hussen MA, Ilesanmi OS, Irvani SSN, Jacobsen KH, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Kahsay A, Kant S, Kasaeian A, Kassa TD, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khalil I, Khan EA, Khang YH, Kim YJ, Kochhar S, Koyanagi A, Krohn KJ, Kumar GA, Lakew AM, Leshargie CT, Lodha R, Macarayan ERK, Majdzadeh R, Martins-Melo FR, Melese A, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Mestrovic T, Moazen B, Mohammad KA, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Moosazadeh M, Mousavi SM, Mustafa G, Nachega JB, Nguyen LH, Nguyen SH, Nguyen TH, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nong VM, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Oren E, Pereira DM, Prakash S, Qorbani M, Rafay A, Rai RK, Ram U, Rubino S, Safiri S, Salomon JA, Samy AM, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Seyedmousavi S, Sharif M, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Sreeramareddy CT, Tran BX, Tsadik AG, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Uthman OA, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vu G, Weldegebreal F, Werdecker A, Yimer EM, Yonemoto N, Yotebieng M, Naghavi M, Vos T, Hay SI, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national burden of tuberculosis, 1990-2016: results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2016 Study. Lancet Infect Dis 2018; 18:1329-1349. [PMID: 30507459 PMCID: PMC6250050 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(18)30625-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 101] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2018] [Revised: 10/09/2018] [Accepted: 10/10/2018] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although a preventable and treatable disease, tuberculosis causes more than a million deaths each year. As countries work towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target to end the tuberculosis epidemic by 2030, robust assessments of the levels and trends of the burden of tuberculosis are crucial to inform policy and programme decision making. We assessed the levels and trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis by drug resistance and HIV status for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. METHODS We analysed 15 943 site-years of vital registration data, 1710 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 764 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed all available data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, population-based tuberculin surveys, and estimated tuberculosis cause-specific mortality to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how the burden of tuberculosis differed from the burden predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS Globally in 2016, among HIV-negative individuals, the number of incident cases of tuberculosis was 9·02 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·05-10·16) and the number of tuberculosis deaths was 1·21 million (1·16-1·27). Among HIV-positive individuals, the number of incident cases was 1·40 million (1·01-1·89) and the number of tuberculosis deaths was 0·24 million (0·16-0·31). Globally, among HIV-negative individuals the age-standardised incidence of tuberculosis decreased annually at a slower rate (-1·3% [-1·5 to -1·2]) than mortality did (-4·5% [-5·0 to -4·1]) from 2006 to 2016. Among HIV-positive individuals during the same period, the rate of change in annualised age-standardised incidence was -4·0% (-4·5 to -3·7) and mortality was -8·9% (-9·5 to -8·4). Several regions had higher rates of age-standardised incidence and mortality than expected on the basis of their SDI levels in 2016. For drug-susceptible tuberculosis, the highest observed-to-expected ratios were in southern sub-Saharan Africa (13·7 for incidence and 14·9 for mortality), and the lowest ratios were in high-income North America (0·4 for incidence) and Oceania (0·3 for mortality). For multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, eastern Europe had the highest observed-to-expected ratios (67·3 for incidence and 73·0 for mortality), and high-income North America had the lowest ratios (0·4 for incidence and 0·5 for mortality). INTERPRETATION If current trends in tuberculosis incidence continue, few countries are likely to meet the SDG target to end the tuberculosis epidemic by 2030. Progress needs to be accelerated by improving the quality of and access to tuberculosis diagnosis and care, by developing new tools, scaling up interventions to prevent risk factors for tuberculosis, and integrating control programmes for tuberculosis and HIV. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Dicker D, Nguyen G, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdel-Rahman O, Abdi A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abdurahman AA, Abebe HT, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abebo TA, Aboyans V, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya P, Adebayo OM, Adedeji IA, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adhikari TB, Adib MG, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afarideh M, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Aggarwal R, Aghayan SA, Agrawal S, Agrawal A, Ahmadi M, Ahmadi A, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MLCB, Ahmed S, Ahmed MB, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akanda AS, Akbari ME, Akibu M, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju T, Akseer N, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alebel A, Aleman AV, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Ali R, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen CA, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Alsharif U, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Anlay DZ, Ansari H, Ansariadi A, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Appiah SCY, Aremu O, Areri HA, Ärnlöv J, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asadi-Lari M, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Asgedom SW, Assadi R, Ataro Z, Atey TMM, Athari SS, Atique S, Atre SR, Atteraya MS, Attia EF, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Awuah B, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayele HT, Ayele Y, Ayer R, Ayuk TB, Azzopardi PS, Azzopardi-Muscat N, Badali H, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Bali AG, Banach M, Banstola A, Barac A, Barboza MA, Barquera S, Barrero LH, Basaleem H, Bassat Q, Basu A, Basu S, Baune BT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay AG, Belay E, Belay SA, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Beuran M, Beyranvand T, Bhala N, Bhatia E, Bhatt S, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Birlik SM, Birungi C, Bisanzio D, Biswas T, Bjørge T, Bleyer A, Basara BB, Bose D, Bosetti C, Boufous S, Bourne R, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Brant LC, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Britton G, Brugha T, Burke KE, Busse R, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Callender CSKH, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cano J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castillo Rivas J, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Çavlin A, Cerin E, Chaiah Y, Champs AP, Chang HY, Chang JC, Chattopadhyay A, Chaturvedi P, Chen W, Chiang PPC, Chimed-Ochir O, Chin KL, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer A, Choi JYJ, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Chung SC, Cicuttini FM, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Claro RM, Cohen AJ, Collado-Mateo D, Constantin MM, Conti S, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Cortesi PA, Cortinovis M, Cousin E, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crowe CS, Crump JA, Cucu A, Cunningham M, Daba AK, Dachew BA, Dadi AF, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dang AK, Dargan PI, Daryani A, Das SK, Das Gupta R, das Neves J, Dasa TT, Dash AP, Weaver ND, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, Dayama A, Courten BD, De la Hoz FP, De leo D, De Neve JW, Degefa MG, Degenhardt L, Degfie TT, Deiparine S, Dellavalle RP, Demoz GT, Demtsu BB, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Des Jarlais DC, Dessie GA, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Ding EL, Djalalinia S, Doku DT, Dolan KA, Donnelly CA, Dorsey ER, Douwes-Schultz D, Doyle KE, Drake TM, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Ebrahimi H, Ebrahimpour S, Edessa D, Edvardsson D, Eggen AE, El Bcheraoui C, El Sayed Zaki M, Elfaramawi M, El-Khatib Z, Ellingsen CL, Elyazar IRF, Enayati A, Endries AYY, Er B, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeili R, Esteghamati A, Esteghamati S, Fakhar M, Fakhim H, Farag T, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Farhadi F, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Farioli A, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Farzaei MH, Fazeli MS, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Feizy F, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Fernandes JC, Feyissa GT, Fijabi DO, Filip I, Finegold S, Fischer F, Flor LS, Foigt NA, Ford JA, Foreman KJ, Fornari C, Frank TD, Franklin RC, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Futran ND, Galan A, Gallus S, Gambashidze K, Gamkrelidze A, Gankpe FG, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gebre T, Gebre AK, Gebregergs GB, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gelano TF, Gelaw YA, Geleijnse JM, Genova-Maleras R, Gessner BD, Getachew S, Gething PW, Gezae KE, Ghadami MR, Ghadimi R, Ghasemi Falavarjani K, Ghasemi-Kasman M, Ghiasvand H, Ghimire M, Ghoshal AG, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gillum RF, Giussani G, Goenka S, Goli S, Gomez RS, Gomez-Cabrera MC, Gómez-Dantés H, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goto A, Goulart AC, Goulart BNG, Grada A, Grosso G, Gugnani HC, Guimaraes ALS, Guo Y, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gyawali B, Haagsma JA, Hachinski V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagos TB, Hailegiyorgis TT, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haririan H, Haro JM, Hasan M, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hay SI, He Y, Hedayatizadeh-Omran A, Hegazy MI, Heibati B, Heidari M, Hendrie D, Henok A, Henry NJ, Heredia-Pi I, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Heydarpour P, Heydarpour S, Hibstu DT, Hoek HW, Hole MK, Homaie Rad E, Hoogar P, Horino M, Hosgood HD, Hosseini SM, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc S, Hostiuc M, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang JJ, Husseini A, Hussen MM, Hutfless S, Iburg KM, Igumbor EU, Ikeda CT, Ilesanmi OS, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Isehunwa OO, Islam SMS, Islami F, Jahangiry L, Jahanmehr N, Jain R, Jain SK, Jakovljevic M, James SL, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman S, Jayatilleke AU, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jha RP, Jha V, Ji JS, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Joshi A, Jozwiak JJ, Jungari SB, Jürisson M, K M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kahssay M, Kalani R, Kapil U, Karami M, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karema C, Karimi N, Karimi SM, Karimi-Sari H, Kasaeian A, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kassa ZY, Kassebaum NJ, Katibeh M, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kawakami N, 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Yamada T, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Ye P, Yearwood JA, Yentür GK, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, York HW, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zachariah G, Zadnik V, Zafar S, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zeeb H, Zeleke MM, Zenebe ZM, Zerfu TA, Zhang K, Zhang X, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zodpey S, Zucker I, Zuhlke LJJ, Lopez AD, Gakidou E, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1684-1735. [PMID: 30496102 PMCID: PMC6227504 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)31891-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 575] [Impact Index Per Article: 95.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2018] [Revised: 07/14/2018] [Accepted: 08/08/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Zucker I, Zuhlke LJJ, Lim SS, Murray CJL. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:2091-2138. [PMID: 30496107 PMCID: PMC6227911 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32281-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 264] [Impact Index Per Article: 44.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2018] [Revised: 09/06/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. FINDINGS The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. INTERPRETATION The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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A, Kassa DH, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kassa ZY, Kassebaum NJ, Kastor A, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Karyani AK, Kebede S, Keiyoro PN, Kemp GR, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kereselidze M, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khajavi A, Khalid N, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khan MS, Khang YH, Khanna T, Khater MM, Khatony A, Khazaeipour Z, Khazaie H, Khoja AT, Khosravi A, Khosravi MH, Kibret GD, Kidanemariam ZT, Kiirithio DN, Kilgore PE, Kim D, Kim JY, Kim YE, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kinra S, Kisa A, Kivimäki M, Kochhar S, Kokubo Y, Kolola T, Kopec JA, Kosek MN, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Krishnaswami S, Krohn KJ, Defo BK, Bicer BK, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar P, Kumsa FA, Kutz MJ, Lad SD, Lafranconi A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lam H, Lami FH, Lang JJ, Lanksy S, Lansingh VC, Laryea DO, Lassi ZS, Latifi A, Laxmaiah A, Lazarus JV, Lee JB, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leshargie CT, Leta S, Levi M, Li S, Li X, Li Y, Liang J, Liang X, Liben ML, Lim LL, Limenih MA, Linn S, Liu S, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lunevicius R, Mabika CM, Macarayan ERK, Mackay MT, Madotto F, Mahmood TAE, Mahotra NB, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malik MA, Mamun AA, Manamo WA, Manda AL, Mangalam S, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Mapoma CC, Marami D, Maravilla JC, Marcenes W, Marina S, Martins-Melo FR, März W, Marzan MB, Mashamba-Thompson TP, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Massenburg BB, Mathur MR, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McGrath JJ, Mehata S, Mehendale SM, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrotra R, Mehrzadi S, Mehta KM, Mehta V, Mekonnen TC, Meles HG, Meles KG, Melese A, Melku M, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengesha MM, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Mensah GA, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Mezgebe HB, Miangotar Y, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Miller TR, Miller-Petrie MK, Mini GK, Mirabi P, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw AT, Moazen B, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi M, Mohammadifard N, Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani M, Mohammed MA, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Mola GD, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Montañez JC, Moradi G, Moradi M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moraga P, Morgado-Da-Costa J, Mori R, Morrison SD, Mosapour A, Moschos MM, Mousavi SM, Muche AA, Muchie KF, Mueller UO, Mukhopadhyay S, Muller K, Murphy TB, Murthy GVS, Musa J, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Nahvijou A, Naik G, Naik P, Najafi F, Naldi L, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Nascimento BR, Nawaz H, Ncama BP, Neamati N, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Neupane S, Newton CRJ, Ngalesoni FN, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen G, Nguyen LH, Nguyen TH, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nisar MI, Nixon MR, Nomura S, Noroozi M, Noubiap JJ, Nouri HR, Shiadeh MN, Nowroozi MR, Nyandwi A, Nyasulu PS, Odell CM, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogah OS, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okoro A, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong SK, Ortiz A, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Ota E, Otieno BA, Otstavnov SS, Owolabi MO, Oyekale AS, P A M, Pakhale S, Pakhare AP, Pana A, Panda BK, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey AR, Park EK, Parsian H, Patel S, Patil ST, Patle A, Patton GC, Paturi VR, Paudel D, Pedroso MM, Peprah EK, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petri WA, Petzold M, Pierce M, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pirsaheb M, Polanczyk GV, Postma MJ, Pourmalek F, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Prakash S, Prasad N, Purcell CA, Purwar MB, Qorbani M, Quansah R, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MS, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajati F, Rajsic S, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Ranjan P, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Ray SE, Razo-García C, Reiner RC, Reis C, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezaeian S, Rezai MS, Riahi SM, Rios-Blancas MJ, Roba KT, Roberts NLS, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rostami A, Rubagotti E, Ruhago GM, Sabde YD, Sachdev PS, Saddik B, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Safari H, Safari Y, Safari-Faramani R, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Sajadi HS, Salahshoor MR, Salam N, Salama JS, Salamati P, Saldanha RDF, Saleem Z, Salimi Y, Salimzadeh H, Salomon JA, Salvi SS, Salz I, 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Widecka J, Widecka K, Wijeratne T, Winkler AS, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wu S, Wyper GMA, Xu G, Yamada T, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Ye P, Yentür GK, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zadnik V, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zeleke MM, Zenebe ZM, Zerfu TA, Zhang X, Zhao XJ, Zhou M, Zhu J, Zimsen SRM, Zodpey S, Zoeckler L, Lopez AD, Lim SS. Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1995-2051. [PMID: 30496106 PMCID: PMC6227915 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32278-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 243] [Impact Index Per Article: 40.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2018] [Revised: 09/07/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. METHODS We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. FINDINGS From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. INTERPRETATION Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Wiens KE, Woyczynski LP, Ledesma JR, Ross JM, Zenteno-Cuevas R, Goodridge A, Ullah I, Mathema B, Djoba Siawaya JF, Biehl MH, Ray SE, Bhattacharjee NV, Henry NJ, Reiner RC, Kyu HH, Murray CJL, Hay SI. Global variation in bacterial strains that cause tuberculosis disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis. BMC Med 2018; 16:196. [PMID: 30373589 PMCID: PMC6206891 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-018-1180-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2018] [Accepted: 09/24/2018] [Indexed: 01/10/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The host, microbial, and environmental factors that contribute to variation in tuberculosis (TB) disease are incompletely understood. Accumulating evidence suggests that one driver of geographic variation in TB disease is the local ecology of mycobacterial genotypes or strains, and there is a need for a comprehensive and systematic synthesis of these data. The objectives of this study were to (1) map the global distribution of genotypes that cause TB disease and (2) examine whether any epidemiologically relevant clinical characteristics were associated with those genotypes. METHODS We performed a systematic review of PubMed and Scopus to create a comprehensive dataset of human TB molecular epidemiology studies that used representative sampling techniques. The methods were developed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA). We extracted and synthesized data from studies that reported prevalence of bacterial genotypes and from studies that reported clinical characteristics associated with those genotypes. RESULTS The results of this study are twofold. First, we identified 206 studies for inclusion in the study, representing over 200,000 bacterial isolates collected over 27 years in 85 countries. We mapped the genotypes and found that, consistent with previously published maps, Euro-American lineage 4 and East Asian lineage 2 strains are widespread, and West African lineages 5 and 6 strains are geographically restricted. Second, 30 studies also reported transmission chains and 4 reported treatment failure associated with genotypes. We performed a meta-analysis and found substantial heterogeneity across studies. However, based on the data available, we found that lineage 2 strains may be associated with increased risk of transmission chains, while lineages 5 and 6 strains may be associated with reduced risk, compared with lineage 4 strains. CONCLUSIONS This study provides the most comprehensive systematic analysis of the evidence for diversity in bacterial strains that cause TB disease. The results show both geographic and epidemiological differences between strains, which could inform our understanding of the global burden of TB. Our findings also highlight the challenges of collecting the clinical data required to inform TB diagnosis and treatment. We urge future national TB programs and research efforts to prioritize and reinforce clinical data collection in study designs and results dissemination.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kirsten E Wiens
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 2301 5th Ave, Suite 600, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
| | - Lauren P Woyczynski
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 2301 5th Ave, Suite 600, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
| | - Jorge R Ledesma
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 2301 5th Ave, Suite 600, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
| | - Jennifer M Ross
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 2301 5th Ave, Suite 600, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
- Departments of Global Health and Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Amador Goodridge
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), City of Knowledge, Panama, Panama
| | - Irfan Ullah
- Gomal Centre of Biochemistry and Biotechnology, Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
- Programmatic Management of Drug-Resistant TB Unit, BSL-II TB Culture Laboratory, Mufti Mehmood Memorial Teaching Hospital, Dera Ismail Khan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
| | - Barun Mathema
- Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Joel Fleury Djoba Siawaya
- Unité de Recherche et de Diagnostics Spécialisés, Laboratoire National de Santé Publique, Libreville, Gabon
- Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Mère-Enfant Fondation Jeanne EBORI, Libreville, Gabon
| | - Molly H Biehl
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 2301 5th Ave, Suite 600, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
| | - Sarah E Ray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 2301 5th Ave, Suite 600, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
| | - Natalia V Bhattacharjee
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 2301 5th Ave, Suite 600, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
| | - Nathaniel J Henry
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 2301 5th Ave, Suite 600, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
| | - Robert C Reiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 2301 5th Ave, Suite 600, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
| | - Hmwe H Kyu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 2301 5th Ave, Suite 600, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
| | - Christopher J L Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 2301 5th Ave, Suite 600, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 2301 5th Ave, Suite 600, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA.
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Kyu HH, Maddison ER, Henry NJ, Mumford JE, Barber R, Shields C, Brown JC, Nguyen G, Carter A, Wolock TM, Wang H, Liu PY, Reitsma M, Ross JM, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbas K, Abera M, Abera SF, Abera Hareri H, Ahmed M, Alene KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amo-Adjei J, Andrews J, Ansari H, Antonio CA, Anwari P, Asayesh H, Atey TM, Atre S, Barac A, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Bensenor I, Beyene AS, Butt ZA, Cardona PJ, Christopher D, Dandona L, Dandona R, Deribe K, Deribew A, Ehrenkranz R, El Sayed Zaki M, Endries A, Feyissa TR, Fischer F, Gai R, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebrehiwot TT, Gesesew H, Getahun B, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gugnani H, Haghparast-Bidgoli H, Hailu GB, Hassen HY, Hilawe E, Horita N, Jacobsen KH, Jonas JB, Kasaeian A, Kedir MS, Kemmer L, Khader Y, Khan E, Khang YH, Khoja AT, Kim YJ, Koul P, Koyanagi A, Krohn KJ, Kumar GA, Kutz M, Lodha R, Magdy And El Razek H, Majdzadeh R, Manyazewal T, Memish Z, Mendoza W, Mezgebe HB, Mohammed S, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oren E, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Pereira D, Plass D, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Rafay A, Rahman M, Rai RK, Rao PC, Ray SE, Reiner R, Reinig N, Safiri S, Salomon JA, Sandar L, Sartorius B, Shamsizadeh M, Shey M, Shifti DM, Shore H, Singh J, Sreeramareddy CT, Swaminathan S, Swartz SJ, Tadese F, Tedla BA, Tegegne BS, Tessema B, Topor-Madry R, Ukwaja KN, Uthman OA, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Wakayo T, Weldegebreal S, Westerman R, Workicho A, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Naghavi M, Hay SI, Vos T, Murray CJL. The global burden of tuberculosis: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet Infect Dis 2018; 18:261-284. [PMID: 29223583 PMCID: PMC5831985 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(17)30703-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 202] [Impact Index Per Article: 33.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2017] [Revised: 09/30/2017] [Accepted: 10/02/2017] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND An understanding of the trends in tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality is crucial to tracking of the success of tuberculosis control programmes and identification of remaining challenges. We assessed trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis over the past 25 years for 195 countries and territories. METHODS We analysed 10 691 site-years of vital registration data, 768 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate tuberculosis mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how observed tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality differed from expected trends as predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator based on income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. We also estimated tuberculosis mortality and disability-adjusted life-years attributable to the independent effects of risk factors including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes. FINDINGS Globally, in 2015, the number of tuberculosis incident cases (including new and relapse cases) was 10·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 9·2 million to 11·5 million), the number of prevalent cases was 10·1 million (9·2 million to 11·1 million), and the number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·1 million to 1·6 million). Among individuals who were HIV negative, the number of incident cases was 8·8 million (8·0 million to 9·9 million), the number of prevalent cases was 8·9 million (8·1 million to 9·7 million), and the number of deaths was 1·1 million (0·9 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change from 2005 to 2015 showed a faster decline in mortality (-4·1% [-5·0 to -3·4]) than in incidence (-1·6% [-1·9 to -1·2]) and prevalence (-0·7% [-1·0 to -0·5]) among HIV-negative individuals. The SDI was inversely associated with HIV-negative mortality rates but did not show a clear gradient for incidence and prevalence. Most of Asia, eastern Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa had higher rates of HIV-negative tuberculosis burden than expected given their SDI. Alcohol use accounted for 11·4% (9·3-13·0) of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals in 2015, diabetes accounted for 10·6% (6·8-14·8), and smoking accounted for 7·8% (3·8-12·0). INTERPRETATION Despite a concerted global effort to reduce the burden of tuberculosis, it still causes a large disease burden globally. Strengthening of health systems for early detection of tuberculosis and improvement of the quality of tuberculosis care, including prompt and accurate diagnosis, early initiation of treatment, and regular follow-up, are priorities. Countries with higher than expected tuberculosis rates for their level of sociodemographic development should investigate the reasons for lagging behind and take remedial action. Efforts to prevent smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes could also substantially reduce the burden of tuberculosis. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Ordoñez C, Savage HP, Tarajia M, Rivera R, Weeks‐Galindo C, Sambrano D, Riley L, Fernandez PL, Baumgarth N, Goodridge A. Both B-1a and B-1b cells exposed to Mycobacterium tuberculosis lipids differentiate into IgM antibody-secreting cells. Immunology 2018; 154:613-623. [PMID: 29455451 PMCID: PMC6050208 DOI: 10.1111/imm.12909] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2017] [Revised: 01/29/2018] [Accepted: 02/08/2018] [Indexed: 01/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Tuberculosis is an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. The cellular immune response to mycobacteria has been characterized extensively, but the antibody response remains underexplored. The present study aimed to examine whether host or bacterial phospholipids induce secretion of IgM, and specifically anti-phospholipid IgM, antibodies by B cells and to identify the responsible B-cell subset. Here we show that peritoneal B cells responded to lipid antigens by secreting IgM antibodies. Specifically, stimulation with M. tuberculosis H37Rv total lipids resulted in significant induction of total and anti-phosphatidylcholine IgM. Similarly, IgM antibody production increased significantly with stimulation by whole Mycobacterium bovis bacillus Calmette-Guérin. The B-1 subset was the dominant source of IgM antibodies after exposure to cardiolipin. Both CD5+ B-1a and CD5- B-1b cell subsets secreted total IgM antibodies after exposure to M. tuberculosis H37Rv total lipids in vitro. Overall, our results suggest that the poly-reactive B-1 cell repertoire contributes to non-specific anti-phospholipid IgM antibody secretion in response to M. tuberculosis lipids.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ciara Ordoñez
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research UnitCentro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades‐Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT‐AIP)CIUDAD DEL SABERClaytonPanama
- Department of BiotechnologyAcharya Nargajuna UniversityGunturIndia
| | - Hannah P. Savage
- Graduate Group in ImmunologyUniversity of CaliforniaDavisCAUSA
- Center for Comparative MedicineUniversity of CaliforniaDavisCAUSA
| | - Musharaf Tarajia
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research UnitCentro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades‐Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT‐AIP)CIUDAD DEL SABERClaytonPanama
- Department of BiotechnologyAcharya Nargajuna UniversityGunturIndia
| | - René Rivera
- Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades‐Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT‐AIP)CIUDAD DEL SABERClaytonPanama
| | - Cheyenne Weeks‐Galindo
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research UnitCentro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades‐Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT‐AIP)CIUDAD DEL SABERClaytonPanama
- Sentara RMH Medical CenterHarrisonburgVAUSA
| | - Dilcia Sambrano
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research UnitCentro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades‐Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT‐AIP)CIUDAD DEL SABERClaytonPanama
| | - Lee Riley
- Division of Infectious Diseases and VaccinologySchool of Public HealthUniversity of CaliforniaBerkeleyCAUSA
| | - Patricia L. Fernandez
- Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades‐Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT‐AIP)CIUDAD DEL SABERClaytonPanama
| | - Nicole Baumgarth
- Graduate Group in ImmunologyUniversity of CaliforniaDavisCAUSA
- Center for Comparative MedicineUniversity of CaliforniaDavisCAUSA
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology and ImmunologyUniversity of CaliforniaDavisCAUSA
| | - Amador Goodridge
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research UnitCentro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades‐Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT‐AIP)CIUDAD DEL SABERClaytonPanama
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Vos T, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulkader RS, Abdulle AM, Abebo TA, Abera SF, Aboyans V, Abu-Raddad LJ, Ackerman IN, Adamu AA, Adetokunboh O, Afarideh M, Afshin A, Agarwal SK, Aggarwal R, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Aichour MTE, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aiyar S, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Al Lami FH, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alam T, Alasfoor D, Alene KA, Ali R, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Al-Maskari F, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Alsowaidi S, Altirkawi KA, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Andersen HH, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asgedom SW, Assadi R, Atey TM, Atnafu NT, Atre SR, Avila-Burgos L, Avokphako EFGA, Awasthi A, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Bannick MS, Barac A, Barber RM, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu S, Battista B, Battle KE, Baune BT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benson J, Berhane A, Berhe DF, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beuran M, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhansali A, Bhatt S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgilign S, Bicer BK, Bienhoff K, Bikbov B, Birungi C, Biryukov S, Bisanzio D, Bizuayehu HM, Boneya DJ, Boufous S, Bourne RRA, Brazinova A, Brugha TS, Buchbinder R, Bulto LNB, Bumgarner BR, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Cameron E, Car M, Carabin H, Carapetis JR, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Carvalho F, Casey DC, Caso V, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castle CD, Catalá-López F, Chang HY, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chen H, Chibalabala M, Chibueze CE, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Colombara D, Cooper C, Cortesi PA, Criqui MH, Crump JA, Dadi AF, Dalal K, Dandona L, Dandona R, das Neves J, Davitoiu DV, de Courten B, De Leo DD, Defo BK, Degenhardt L, Deiparine S, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Des Jarlais DC, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Dicker D, Ding EL, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Dorsey ER, dos Santos KPB, Douwes-Schultz D, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Duncan BB, El-Khatib ZZ, Ellerstrand J, Enayati A, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Fanuel FBB, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fazeli MS, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Feyissa TR, Filip I, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Flaxman AD, Flor LS, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Franklin RC, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Futran ND, Gakidou E, Ganji M, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebre T, Gebrehiwot TT, Geleto A, Gemechu BL, Gesesew HA, Gething PW, Ghajar A, Gibney KB, Gill PS, Gillum RF, Ginawi IAM, Giref AZ, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin WW, Gold AL, Goldberg EM, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goto A, Goulart AC, Griswold M, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hailu GB, Hailu AD, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hanson SW, Hao Y, Harb HL, Hareri HA, Haro JM, Harvey J, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Hawley C, Hay SI, Hay RJ, Henry NJ, Heredia-Pi IB, Hernandez JM, Heydarpour P, Hoek HW, Hoffman HJ, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hostiuc S, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang H, Huynh C, Iburg KM, Igumbor EU, Ikeda C, Irvine CMS, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Jassal SK, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jiang G, John D, Johnson SC, Johnson CO, Jonas JB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kamal R, Kan H, Karam NE, Karch A, Karema CK, Kasaeian A, Kassa GM, Kassaw NA, Kassebaum NJ, Kastor A, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Keiyoro PN, Kengne AP, Keren A, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khosravi A, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri AA, Kieling C, Kim YJ, Kim D, Kim P, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek KA, Kivimaki M, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krishnaswami S, Krohn KJ, Kumar GA, Kumar P, Kumar S, Kyu HH, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lambert N, Lan Q, Larsson A, Lavados PM, Leasher JL, Lee PH, Lee JT, Leigh J, Leshargie CT, Leung J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Li Y, Li Kappe D, Liang X, Liben ML, Lim SS, Linn S, Liu PY, Liu A, Liu S, Liu Y, Lodha R, Logroscino G, London SJ, Looker KJ, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Low N, Lozano R, Lucas TCD, Macarayan ERK, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manguerra H, Manhertz T, Mantilla A, Mantovani LG, Mapoma CC, Marczak LB, Martinez-Raga J, Martins-Melo FR, Martopullo I, März W, Mathur MR, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGaughey M, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McNellan C, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Mekonnen TC, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengistie MA, Mengistu DT, Mensah GA, Meretoja TJ, Meretoja A, Mezgebe HB, Micha R, Millear A, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mishra SR, Mitchell PB, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi A, Mohammed KE, Mohammed S, Mohanty SK, Mokdad AH, Mollenkopf SK, Monasta L, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Mori R, Morozoff C, Morrison SD, Moses M, Mountjoy-Venning C, Mruts KB, Mueller UO, Muller K, Murdoch ME, Murthy GVS, Musa KI, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Naidoo KS, Naldi L, Nangia V, Natarajan G, Negasa DE, Negoi RI, Negoi I, Newton CR, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen TH, Nguyen QL, Nguyen CT, Nguyen G, Nguyen M, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nolte S, Nong VM, Norrving B, Noubiap JJN, O'Donnell MJ, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okoro A, Oladimeji O, Olagunju TO, Olagunju AT, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong K, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz A, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Osman M, Owolabi MO, PA M, Pacella RE, Pana A, Panda BK, Papachristou C, Park EK, Parry CD, Parsaeian M, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paulson K, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Peterson CB, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pinho C, Plass D, Pletcher MA, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prabhakaran D, Prasad NM, Prasad N, Purcell C, Qorbani M, Quansah R, Quintanilla BPA, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahman M, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Rankin Z, Rao PC, Rao PV, Rawaf S, Ray SE, Reiner RC, Reinig N, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Ribeiro AL, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Roy A, Rubagotti E, Ruhago GM, Saadat S, Sadat N, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahathevan R, Salama J, Saleem HOB, Salomon JA, Salvi SS, Samy AM, Sanabria JR, Santomauro D, Santos IS, Santos JV, Santric Milicevic MM, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Setegn T, Shackelford KA, Shaheen A, Shaikh MA, Shamsipour M, Shariful Islam SM, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Shi P, Shields C, Shifa GT, Shigematsu M, Shinohara Y, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shirude S, Shishani K, Shrime MG, Sibai AM, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Singh NP, Sinha DN, Skiadaresi E, Skirbekk V, Slepak EL, Sligar A, Smith DL, Smith M, Sobaih BHA, Sobngwi E, Sorensen RJD, Sousa TCM, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Stein MB, Stein DJ, Steiner TJ, Steiner C, Steinke S, Stokes MA, Stovner LJ, Strub B, Subart M, Sufiyan MB, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Sylte DO, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Taffere GR, Takala JS, Tandon N, Tavakkoli M, Taveira N, Taylor HR, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekelab T, Terkawi AS, Tesfaye DJ, Tesssema B, Thamsuwan O, Thomas KE, Thrift AG, Tiruye TY, Tobe-Gai R, Tollanes MC, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Tortajada M, Touvier M, Tran BX, Tripathi S, Troeger C, Truelsen T, Tsoi D, Tuem KB, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Updike R, Uthman OA, Uzochukwu BSC, van Boven JFM, Varughese S, Vasankari T, Venkatesh S, Venketasubramanian N, Vidavalur R, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wadilo F, Wakayo T, Wang YP, Weaver M, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Woodbrook R, Woolf AD, Workicho A, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yaghoubi M, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Ye P, Yimam HH, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zegeye EA, Zenebe ZM, Zhang X, Zhou M, Zipkin B, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390:1211-1259. [PMID: 28919117 PMCID: PMC5605509 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)32154-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4400] [Impact Index Per Article: 628.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2017] [Revised: 07/22/2017] [Accepted: 07/26/2017] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. METHODS We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). FINDINGS Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228). INTERPRETATION The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-to-date information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.
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Gakidou E, Afshin A, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abera SF, Aboyans V, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Abyu GY, Adedeji IA, Adetokunboh O, Afarideh M, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Aichour MTE, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alam T, Alasfoor D, Alene KA, Ali K, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Ansari H, Antó JM, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Arian N, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asgedom SW, Atey TM, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Ballew SH, Barac A, Barber RM, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Batis C, Battle KE, Baumgarner BR, Baune BT, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Bennett JR, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Berhe DF, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beuran M, Beyene AS, Bhansali A, Bhutta ZA, Bicer BK, Bikbov B, Birungi C, Biryukov S, Blosser CD, Boneya DJ, Bou-Orm IR, Brauer M, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Brugha TS, Bulto LNB, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Cercy K, Chang HY, Charlson FJ, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Comfort H, Cooper C, Coresh J, Cornaby L, Cortesi PA, Criqui MH, Crump JA, Dandona L, Dandona R, das Neves J, Davey G, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, de Courten B, Defo BK, Degenhardt L, Deiparine S, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Deshpande A, Dharmaratne SD, Ding EL, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Dokova K, Doku DT, Donkelaar AV, Dorsey ER, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Duncan S, Ebrahimi H, El-Khatib ZZ, Enayati A, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Faraon EJA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fay K, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Feyissa TR, Filip I, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Flaxman AD, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Frostad JJ, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Ganji M, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebrehiwot TT, Geleijnse JM, Geleto A, Gemechu BL, Gesesew HA, Gething PW, Ghajar A, Gibney KB, Gill PS, Gillum RF, Giref AZ, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin WW, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goryakin Y, Goulart AC, Graetz N, Gugnani HC, Guo J, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Hachinski V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hailu GB, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hanson SW, Harb HL, Hareri HA, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Hawley C, Hay SI, Hedayati MT, Hendrie D, Heredia-Pi IB, Hernandez JCM, Hoek HW, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hostiuc S, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Hu G, Huang JJ, Huang H, Ibrahim NM, Iburg KM, Ikeda C, Inoue M, Irvine CMS, Jackson MD, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Jauregui A, Javanbakht M, Jeemon P, Johansson LRK, Johnson CO, Jonas JB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kamal R, Karch A, Karema CK, Kasaeian A, Kassebaum NJ, Kastor A, Katikireddi SV, Kawakami N, Keiyoro PN, Kelbore SG, Kemmer L, Kengne AP, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khosravi A, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri AA, Kieling C, Kim JY, Kim YJ, Kim D, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek KA, Kivimaki M, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krohn KJ, Kromhout H, Kumar GA, Kutz M, Kyu HH, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lan Q, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Lee PH, Lee A, Leigh J, Leung J, Levi M, Levy TS, Li Y, Li Y, Liang X, Liben ML, Linn S, Liu P, Lodha R, Logroscino G, Looker KJ, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lunevicius R, Macarayan ERK, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manguerra H, Mantovani LG, Mapoma CC, Martin RV, Martinez-Raga J, Martins-Melo FR, Mathur MR, Matsushita K, Matzopoulos R, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Meier T, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengesha MM, Mensah GA, Mensink GBM, Mereta ST, Meretoja TJ, Meretoja A, Mezgebe HB, Micha R, Millear A, Miller TR, Minnig S, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mishra SR, Mohammad KA, Mohammed KE, Mohammed S, Mohan MBV, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Morrison SD, Mountjoy-Venning C, Mueller UO, Mullany EC, Muller K, Murthy GVS, Musa KI, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Nangia V, Natarajan G, Negoi RI, Negoi I, Nguyen CT, Nguyen QL, Nguyen TH, Nguyen G, Nguyen M, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nomura M, Nong VM, Norheim OF, Norrving B, Noubiap JJN, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olivares PR, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz A, Ota E, Owolabi MO, PA M, Pacella RE, Pana A, Panda BK, Panda-Jonas S, Pandian JD, Papachristou C, Park EK, Parry CD, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pillay JD, Piradov MA, Pishgar F, Plass D, Pletcher MA, Polinder S, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prasad N, Purcell C, Qorbani M, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rahman M, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Rawaf S, Rehm CD, Rehm J, Reiner RC, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Reynales-Shigematsu LM, Rezaei S, Ribeiro AL, Rivera JA, Roba KT, Rojas-Rueda D, Roman Y, Room R, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Rubagotti E, Rushton L, Sadat N, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sahathevan R, Salama J, Salomon JA, Samy AM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Sánchez-Pimienta TG, Santomauro D, Santos IS, Santric Milicevic MM, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Serdar B, Servan-Mori EE, Shaddick G, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shamsipour M, Shamsizadeh M, Shariful Islam SM, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Shen J, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shields C, Shiferaw MS, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shishani K, Shoman H, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Singh V, Sinha DN, Skiadaresi E, Slepak EL, Smith DL, Smith M, Sobaih BHA, Sobngwi E, Soneji S, Sorensen RJD, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Steel N, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Steinke S, Stokes MA, Strub B, Subart M, Sufiyan MB, Suliankatchi RA, Sur PJ, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadakamadla SK, Takahashi K, Takala JS, Tandon N, Tanner M, Tarekegn YL, Tavakkoli M, Tegegne TK, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Terkawi AS, Tesssema B, Thakur JS, Thamsuwan O, Thankappan KR, Theis AM, Thomas ML, Thomson AJ, Thrift AG, Tillmann T, Tobe-Gai R, Tobollik M, Tollanes MC, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre A, Tortajada M, Touvier M, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Tuem KB, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Uneke CJ, Updike R, Uthman OA, van Boven JFM, Varughese S, Vasankari T, Veerman LJ, Venkateswaran V, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wadilo F, Wakayo T, Wallin MT, Wang YP, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyes BG, Wolfe CDA, Woodbrook R, Workicho A, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yaseri M, Yimam HH, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zavala-Arciniega L, Zhang X, Zimsen SRM, Zipkin B, Zodpey S, Lim SS, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390:1345-1422. [PMID: 28919119 PMCID: PMC5614451 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)32366-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1554] [Impact Index Per Article: 222.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2017] [Revised: 08/07/2017] [Accepted: 08/21/2017] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. METHODS We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. FINDINGS Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124·1 million DALYs [95% UI 111·2 million to 137·0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122·2 million DALYs [110·3 million to 133·3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83·0 million DALYs [78·3 million to 87·7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89·9 million DALYs [80·9 million to 98·2 million]), high body-mass index (64·8 million DALYs [44·4 million to 87·6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63·8 million DALYs [53·2 million to 76·3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9·3% (6·9-11·6) decline in deaths and a 10·8% (8·3-13·1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14·9% (12·7-17·5) of deaths and 6·2% (3·9-8·7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of deaths and 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27·3% (24·9-29·7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks. INTERPRETATION Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade. FUNDING The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropies.
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Fullman N, Barber RM, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulkader RS, Abdulle AM, Abera SF, Aboyans V, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Adedeji IA, Adetokunboh O, Afshin A, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmad Kiadaliri A, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Aichour MTE, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aiyar S, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alasfoor D, Alene KA, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Ansari H, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asgedom SW, Assadi R, Atey TM, Atre SR, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Bannick MS, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barrero LH, Basu S, Battle KE, Baune BT, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Bennett JR, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Berhe DF, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beuran M, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhansali A, Bhatt S, Bhutta ZA, Bicer BK, Bidgoli HH, Bikbov B, Bilal AI, Birungi C, Biryukov S, Bizuayehu HM, Blosser CD, Boneya DJ, Bose D, Bou-Orm IR, Brauer M, Breitborde NJK, Brugha TS, Bulto LNB, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Cameron E, Campuzano JC, Carabin H, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Casey DC, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Cercy K, Chang HY, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chew A, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Cirillo M, Cooper C, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crump JA, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davitoiu DV, de Courten B, De Steur H, Defo BK, Degenhardt L, Deiparine S, Deribe K, deVeber GA, Ding EL, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Dokova K, Doku DT, Donkelaar AV, Dorsey ER, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ebel BE, Ebrahimi H, El-Khatib ZZ, Enayati A, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Faraon EJA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fazeli MS, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Feyissa TR, Filip I, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Flaxman AD, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Frank T, Franklin RC, Friedman J, Frostad JJ, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Gakidou E, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebrehiwot TT, Geleijnse JM, Geleto A, Gemechu BL, Gething PW, Gibney KB, Gill PS, Gillum RF, Giref AZ, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Glenn SD, Godwin WW, Goldberg EM, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goryakin Y, Griswold M, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hailu GB, Hamadeh RR, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Hareri HA, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Hawley C, Hay SI, He J, Hendrie D, Henry NJ, Heredia-Pi IB, Hoek HW, Holmberg M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hostiuc S, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Huang JJ, Huang H, Huynh C, Iburg KM, Ikeda C, Inoue M, Irvine CMS, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Jauregui A, Javanbakht M, Jeemon P, Jha V, John D, Johnson CO, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kamal R, Karch A, Karema CK, Kasaeian A, Kassebaum NJ, Kastor A, Katikireddi SV, Kawakami N, Keiyoro PN, Kelbore SG, Kemmer L, Kengne AP, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khosravi A, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim JY, Kim YJ, Kim D, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek KA, Kivimaki M, Kokubo Y, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krohn KJ, Kulikoff XR, Kumar GA, Kumar Lal D, Kutz MJ, Kyu HH, Lalloo R, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Lazarus JV, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leung J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Liben ML, Linn S, Liu PY, Liu S, Lodha R, Looker KJ, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lucas TCD, Lunevicius R, Mackay MT, Maddison ER, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manguerra H, Mantovani LG, Manyazewal T, Mapoma CC, Marks GB, Martin RV, Martinez-Raga J, Martins-Melo FR, Martopullo I, Mathur MR, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGaughey M, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Meier T, Meles KG, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengesha MM, Mengistie MA, Mensah GA, Mensink GBM, Mereta ST, Meretoja TJ, Meretoja A, Mezgebe HB, Micha R, Millear A, Miller TR, Minnig S, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mishra SR, Mitchell PB, Mohammad KA, Mohammed KE, Mohammed S, Mohan MBV, Mokdad AH, Mollenkopf SK, Monasta L, Montañez Hernandez JC, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Morrison SD, Moses MW, Mountjoy-Venning C, Mueller UO, Muller K, Murthy GVS, Musa KI, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Naidoo KS, Nangia V, Natarajan G, Negoi RI, Negoi I, Nguyen CT, Nguyen QL, Nguyen TH, Nguyen G, Nguyen M, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nomura M, Nong VM, Norheim OF, Noubiap JJN, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olivares PR, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong K, Oren E, Ortiz A, Owolabi MO, PA M, Pana A, Panda BK, Panda-Jonas S, Papachristou C, Park EK, Patton GC, Paulson K, Pereira DM, Perico DN, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pinho C, Piradov MA, Pishgar F, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rahman M, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Rao PC, Rawaf S, Reidy P, Reiner RC, Reinig N, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rios Blancas MJ, Rivas JC, Roba KT, Rojas-Rueda D, Rokni MB, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Roy A, Rubagotti E, Sadat N, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Salama J, Salomon JA, Samy AM, Sanabria JR, Santomauro D, Santos IS, Santos JV, Santric Milicevic MM, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Saylan MI, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schneider MT, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford KA, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shamsipour M, Shamsizadeh M, Shariful Islam SM, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shields C, Shifa GT, Shiferaw MS, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shirude S, Shishani K, Shoman H, Shrime MG, Silberberg DH, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Singh V, Sinha DN, Skiadaresi E, Slepak EL, Sligar A, Smith DL, Smith A, Smith M, Sobaih BHA, Sobngwi E, Soljak M, Soneji S, Sorensen RJD, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Steinke S, Stokes MA, Strub B, Sufiyan MB, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Sylte DO, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadakamadla SK, Tandon N, Tao T, Tarekegn YL, Tavakkoli M, Taveira N, Tegegne TK, Terkawi AS, Tessema GA, Thakur JS, Thankappan KR, Thrift AG, Tiruye TY, Tobe-Gai R, Topor-Madry R, Torre A, Tortajada M, Tran BX, Troeger C, Truelsen T, Tsoi D, Tuem KB, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Uneke CJ, Updike R, Uthman OA, van Boven JFM, Varughese S, Vasankari T, Venketasubramanian N, Vidavalur R, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wadilo F, Wakayo T, Wallin MT, Wang YP, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyes BG, Wolfe CDA, Woodbrook R, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yimam HH, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zavala-Arciniega L, Zhang X, Zipkin B, Zodpey S, Lim SS, Murray CJL. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390:1423-1459. [PMID: 28916366 PMCID: PMC5603800 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)32336-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 190] [Impact Index Per Article: 27.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2017] [Revised: 08/07/2017] [Accepted: 08/08/2017] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. METHODS We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. FINDINGS Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9-66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6-88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1-87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8-87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6-11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8-13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5-13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. INTERPRETATION GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Barber RM, Fullman N, Sorensen RJD, Bollyky T, McKee M, Nolte E, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abdurahman AA, Abera SF, Abraham B, Abreha GF, Adane K, Adelekan AL, Adetifa IMO, Afshin A, Agarwal A, Agarwal SK, Agarwal S, Agrawal A, Kiadaliri AA, Ahmadi A, Ahmed KY, Ahmed MB, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alam SS, Alemu ZA, Alene KA, Alexander L, Ali R, Ali SD, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Amo-Adjei J, Amoako YA, Anderson BO, Androudi S, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Assadi R, Astatkie A, Atey TM, Atique S, Atnafu NT, Atre SR, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Quintanilla BPA, Awasthi A, Ayele NN, Azzopardi P, Saleem HOB, Bärnighausen T, Bacha U, Badawi A, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Barrero LH, Basu S, Baune BT, Baye K, Bayou YT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Bernal OA, Beyene AS, Beyene TJ, Bhutta ZA, Biadgilign S, Bikbov B, Birlik SM, Birungi C, Biryukov S, Bisanzio D, Bizuayehu HM, Bose D, Brainin M, Brauer M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Butt ZA, Cárdenas R, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Campos-Nonato IR, Car J, Carrero JJ, Casey D, Caso V, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Cecilio P, Cercy K, Charlson FJ, Chen AZ, Chew A, Chibalabala M, Chibueze CE, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Coggeshall MS, Cooper LT, Cortinovis M, Crump JA, Dalal K, Danawi H, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davey G, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, De Leo D, Del Gobbo LC, del Pozo-Cruz B, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Deribew A, Des Jarlais DC, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dicker D, Ding EL, Dokova K, Dorsey ER, Doyle KE, Dubey M, Ehrenkranz R, Ellingsen CL, Elyazar I, Enayati A, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Fürst T, Faghmous IDA, Fanuel FBB, Faraon EJA, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Feyissa TR, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Fleming TD, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Forouzanfar MH, Franklin RC, Frostad J, G/hiwot TT, Gakidou E, Gambashidze K, Gamkrelidze A, Gao W, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebre T, Gebremedhin AT, Gebremichael MW, Gebru AA, Gelaye AA, Geleijnse JM, Genova-Maleras R, Gibney KB, Giref AZ, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin WW, Gold A, Goldberg EM, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goto A, Graetz N, Greaves F, Griswold M, Guban PI, Gugnani HC, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Habtewold TD, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu AD, Hailu GB, Hakuzimana A, Hamadeh RR, Hambisa MT, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Hareri HA, Haro JM, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hay SI, Hendrie D, Heredia-Pi IB, Hoek HW, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang H, Huang JJ, Huntley BM, Huynh C, Iburg KM, Ileanu BV, Innos K, Irenso AA, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, James P, James SL, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jha V, John D, Johnson C, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Juel K, Kabir Z, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimi SM, Kasaeian A, Kassebaum NJ, Kastor A, Katikireddi SV, Kazanjan K, Keiyoro PN, Kemmer L, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Kerbo AA, Kereselidze M, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khalil I, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Khoja ATA, Khonelidze I, Khubchandani J, Kibret GD, Kim D, Kim P, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kissoon N, Kivipelto M, Kokubo Y, Kolk A, Kolte D, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krishnaswami S, Krohn KJ, Defo BK, Bicer BK, Kuipers EJ, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kumsa FA, Kutz M, Kyu HH, Lager ACJ, Lal A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lan Q, Langan SM, Lansingh VC, Larson HJ, Larsson A, Laryea DO, Latif AA, Lawrynowicz AEB, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leinsalu M, Leshargie CT, Leung J, Leung R, Levi M, Liang X, Lim SS, Lind M, Linn S, Lipshultz SE, Liu P, Liu Y, Lo LT, Logroscino G, Lopez AD, Lorch SA, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Macarayan ERK, Mackay MT, El Razek HMA, El Razek MMA, Mahdavi M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mantovani LG, Manyazewal T, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Marks GB, Marquez N, Martinez-Raga J, Marzan MB, Massano J, Mathur MR, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McNellan C, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Mehndiratta MM, Meier T, Mekonnen AB, Meles KG, Memish ZA, Mengesha MM, Mengiste DT, Mengistie MA, Menota BG, Mensah GA, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mezgebe HB, Micha R, Millear A, Mills EJ, Minnig S, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Mock CN, Mohammad KA, Mohammed S, Mohanty SK, Mokdad AH, Mola GLD, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Mori R, Moses M, Mueller UO, Murthy S, Musa KI, Nachega JB, Nagata C, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Naldi L, Nangia V, Nascimento BR, Negoi I, Neupane SP, Newton CR, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen G, Ningrum DNA, Nolte S, Nomura M, Norheim OF, Norrving B, Noubiap JJN, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okoro A, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olivares PR, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz A, Osborne RH, Osman M, Owolabi MO, PA M, Pain AW, Pakhale S, Castillo EP, Pana A, Papachristou C, Parsaeian M, Patel T, Patton GC, Paudel D, Paul VK, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Perez-Padilla R, Perez-Ruiz F, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pinho C, Polinder S, Pond CD, Prakash V, Purwar M, Qorbani M, Quistberg DA, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rai RK, Ram U, Rana SM, Rankin Z, Rao PV, Rao PC, Rawaf S, Rego MAS, Reitsma M, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMNN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezai MS, Ribeiro AL, Roba HS, Rokni MB, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Roy NK, Sachdev PS, Sackey BB, Saeedi MY, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahraian MA, Saleh MM, Salomon JA, Samy AM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Sandar L, Santos IS, Santos JV, Milicevic MMS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Saylan MI, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Seid AM, Seifu CN, Sepanlou SG, Serdar B, Servan-Mori EE, Setegn T, Shackelford KA, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shakh-Nazarova M, Shamsipour M, Islam SMS, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Shi P, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shoman H, Shrime MG, Sibamo ELS, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silveira DGA, Sindi S, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh OP, Singh PK, Singh V, Sinke AH, Sinshaw AE, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Smith A, Sobngwi E, Soneji S, Soriano JB, Sousa TCM, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Steiner C, Steinke S, Stokes MA, Stranges S, Strong M, Stroumpoulis K, Sturua L, Sufiyan MB, Suliankatchi RA, Sun J, Sur P, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Taffere GR, Talongwa RT, Tarajia M, Tavakkoli M, Taveira N, Teeple S, Tegegne TK, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekelab T, Tekle DY, Shifa GT, Terkawi AS, Tesema AG, Thakur JS, Thomson AJ, Tillmann T, Tiruye TY, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Tortajada M, Troeger C, Truelsen T, Tura AK, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Boven JFM, Van Dingenen R, Varughese S, Vasankari T, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wagner JA, Wakayo T, Waller SG, Walson JL, Wang H, Wang YP, Watkins DA, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Wen CP, Werdecker A, Wesana J, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wilkinson JD, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyes BG, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Workicho A, Workie SB, Wubshet M, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yaghoubi M, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yimam HH, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, El Sayed Zaki M, Zambrana-Torrelio C, Zapata T, Zenebe ZM, Zodpey S, Zoeckler L, Zuhlke LJ, Murray CJL. Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2017; 390:231-266. [PMID: 28528753 PMCID: PMC5528124 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)30818-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 307] [Impact Index Per Article: 43.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2016] [Revised: 02/26/2017] [Accepted: 02/28/2017] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. METHODS We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. FINDINGS Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. INTERPRETATION This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Herrera TT, Goodridge A, Britton GB. Ascertaining fetal Zika virus infection based on IgM antibody test in endemic settings. Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol 2017; 49:809. [PMID: 28573776 DOI: 10.1002/uog.17509] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- T T Herrera
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Hospital Punta Pacifica, Affiliate of Johns Hopkins Medicine International, Calle Darién, Panama
| | - A Goodridge
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Ciudad Del Saber, Panama
| | - G B Britton
- Centro de Neurociencias y Unidad de Investigación Clínica, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Ciudad Del Saber, Panama
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Erickson JJ, Smith CD, Goodridge A, Nelson KL. Water quality effects of intermittent water supply in Arraiján, Panama. Water Res 2017; 114:338-350. [PMID: 28279879 DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2017.02.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2016] [Revised: 02/03/2017] [Accepted: 02/06/2017] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Intermittent drinking water supply is common in low- and middle-income countries throughout the world and can cause water quality to degrade in the distribution system. In this study, we characterized water quality in one study zone with continuous supply and three zones with intermittent supply in the drinking water distribution network in Arraiján, Panama. Low or zero pressures occurred in all zones, and negative pressures occurred in the continuous zone and two of the intermittent zones. Despite hydraulic conditions that created risks for backflow and contaminant intrusion, only four of 423 (0.9%) grab samples collected at random times were positive for total coliform bacteria and only one was positive for E. coli. Only nine of 496 (1.8%) samples had turbidity >1.0 NTU and all samples had ≥0.2 mg/L free chlorine residual. In contrast, water quality was often degraded during the first-flush period (when supply first returned after an outage). Still, routine and first-flush water quality under intermittent supply was much better in Arraiján than that reported in a previous study conducted in India. Better water quality in Arraiján could be due to better water quality leaving the treatment plant, shorter supply outages, higher supply pressures, a more consistent and higher chlorine residual, and fewer contaminant sources near pipes. The results illustrate that intermittent supply and its effects on water quality can vary greatly between and within distribution networks. The study also demonstrated that monitoring techniques designed specifically for intermittent supply, such as continuous pressure monitoring and sampling the first flush, can detect water quality threats and degradation that would not likely be detected with conventional monitoring.
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Affiliation(s)
- John J Erickson
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720-1710, USA
| | | | - Amador Goodridge
- Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), City of Knowledge, Panama
| | - Kara L Nelson
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720-1710, USA.
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Lim SS, Allen K, Bhutta ZA, Dandona L, Forouzanfar MH, Fullman N, Gething PW, Goldberg EM, Hay SI, Holmberg M, Kinfu Y, Kutz MJ, Larson HJ, Liang X, Lopez AD, Lozano R, McNellan CR, Mokdad AH, Mooney MD, Naghavi M, Olsen HE, Pigott DM, Salomon JA, Vos T, Wang H, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abraham B, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Abyu GY, Achoki T, Adebiyi AO, Adedeji IA, Afanvi KA, Afshin A, Agarwal A, Agrawal A, Kiadaliri AA, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed KY, Akanda AS, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam U, Alasfoor D, AlBuhairan FS, Aldhahri SF, Aldridge RW, Alemu ZA, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alkhateeb MAB, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amegah AK, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Andersen HH, Anderson BO, Anderson GM, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Atique S, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barber R, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barrero LH, Barrientos-Gutierrez T, Basu S, Bayou TA, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Bernal OA, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhatt S, Biadgilign S, Bienhoff KA, Bikbov B, Binagwaho A, Bisanzio D, Bjertness E, Blore J, Bourne RRA, Brainin M, Brauer M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Broday DM, Brugha TS, Buchbinder R, Butt ZA, Cahill LE, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Carabin H, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Casey D, Caso V, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Cecílio P, Chang HY, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Che X, Chen AZ, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Coates MM, Coggeshall M, Cohen AJ, Cooke GS, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Cowie BC, Crump JA, Damtew SA, Dandona R, Dargan PI, Neves JD, Davis AC, Davletov K, de Castro EF, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Del Gobbo LC, Deribe K, Derrett S, Des Jarlais DC, Deshpande A, deVeber GA, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Ding EL, Dorsey ER, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ebrahimi H, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Fahimi S, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Felicio MM, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Fitzmaurice C, Foigt N, Foreman K, Fowkes FGR, Franca EB, Franklin RC, Fraser M, Friedman J, Frostad J, Fürst T, Gabbe B, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebre T, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gebru AA, Gessner BD, Gillum RF, Ginawi IAM, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin W, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Graetz N, Greenwell KF, Griswold M, Gugnani H, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Gyawali B, Haagsma JA, Haakenstad A, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Haro JM, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Heredia-Pi IB, Hoek HW, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang H, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Inoue M, Islami F, Jacobs TA, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, James P, Jansen HAFM, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jayatilleke AU, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jha V, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jin Y, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Kandel A, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Karunapema P, Kasaeian A, Kassebaum NJ, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kayibanda JF, Keiyoro PN, Kemmer L, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Khoja TAM, Khosravi A, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim S, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kissoon N, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kosen S, Kotsakis GA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krueger H, Defo BK, Kuchenbecker RS, Kuipers EJ, Kulikoff XR, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Kyu HH, Lal A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lam H, Lan Q, Langan SM, Larsson A, Laryea DO, Latif AA, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leinsalu M, Leung J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Li Y, Lind M, Linn S, Lipshultz SE, Liu PY, Liu S, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Lo LT, Logroscino G, Lotufo PA, Lucas RM, Lunevicius R, El Razek MMA, Magis-Rodriguez C, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mapoma CC, Margolis DJ, Martin RV, Martinez-Raga J, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Massano J, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mensink GBM, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mesfin YM, Mhimbira FA, Micha R, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Misganaw A, Mitchell PB, Mock CN, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Monasta L, de la Cruz Monis J, Hernandez JCM, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morawska L, Mori R, Mueller UO, Murdoch ME, Murimira B, Murray J, Murthy GVS, Murthy S, Musa KI, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naidoo KS, Naldi L, Nangia V, Neal B, Nejjari C, Newton CR, Newton JN, Ngalesoni FN, Nguhiu P, Nguyen G, Le Nguyen Q, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Nolte S, Nomura M, Norheim OF, Norrving B, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz A, Osborne RH, Ota E, Owolabi MO, PA M, Park EK, Park HY, Parry CD, Parsaeian M, Patel T, Patel V, Caicedo AJP, Patil ST, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paudel D, Pedro JM, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Pinho C, Pishgar F, Polinder S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Raju M, Ram U, Rana SM, Ranabhat CL, Ranganathan K, Rao PC, Refaat AH, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Ribeiro AL, Blancas MJR, Roba HS, Roberts B, Rodriguez A, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Roy N, Sackey BB, Sagar R, Saleh MM, Sanabria JR, Santos JV, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Sawyer SM, Schmidhuber J, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford K, Shaheen A, Shaikh MA, Levy TS, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Sheth KN, Shey M, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shishani K, Shiue I, Sigfusdottir ID, Silpakit N, Silva DAS, Silverberg JI, Simard EP, Sindi S, Singh A, Singh GM, Singh JA, Singh OP, Singh PK, Skirbekk V, Sligar A, Soneji S, Søreide K, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soshnikov S, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stahl HC, Stanaway JD, Stathopoulou V, Steckling N, Steel N, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Stöckl H, Stranges S, Strong M, Sun J, Sunguya BF, Sur P, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Talongwa RT, Tarawneh MR, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Taylor HR, Tedla BA, Tefera W, Tegegne TK, Tekle DY, Shifa GT, Terkawi AS, Tessema GA, Thakur JS, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Dimbuene ZT, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Donkelaar A, Varakin YY, Vasankari T, Vasconcelos AMN, Veerman JL, Venketasubramanian N, Verma RK, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Volkow P, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Wallin MT, Wang L, Wanga V, Watkins DA, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wilkinson JD, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wolfe I, Won S, Woolf AD, Workie SB, Wubshet M, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yakob B, Yalew AZ, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, El Sayed Zaki M, Zambrana-Torrelio C, Zapata T, Zegeye EA, Zhao Y, Zhou M, Zodpey S, Zonies D, Murray CJL. Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1813-1850. [PMID: 27665228 PMCID: PMC5055583 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31467-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 250] [Impact Index Per Article: 31.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/30/2016] [Revised: 08/13/2016] [Accepted: 08/16/2016] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). METHODS We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. FINDINGS In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8-61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2-86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4-24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0-10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7-13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1-8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened. INTERPRETATION GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Forouzanfar MH, Afshin A, Alexander LT, Anderson HR, Bhutta ZA, Biryukov S, Brauer M, Burnett R, Cercy K, Charlson FJ, Cohen AJ, Dandona L, Estep K, Ferrari AJ, Frostad JJ, Fullman N, Gething PW, Godwin WW, Griswold M, Hay SI, Kinfu Y, Kyu HH, Larson HJ, Liang X, Lim SS, Liu PY, Lopez AD, Lozano R, Marczak L, Mensah GA, Mokdad AH, Moradi-Lakeh M, Naghavi M, Neal B, Reitsma MB, Roth GA, Salomon JA, Sur PJ, Vos T, Wagner JA, Wang H, Zhao Y, Zhou M, Aasvang GM, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abera SF, Abraham B, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abyu GY, Adebiyi AO, Adedeji IA, Ademi Z, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Agardh EE, Agarwal A, Agrawal A, Kiadaliri AA, Ajala ON, Akinyemiju TF, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NKM, Aldhahri SF, Aldridge RW, Alemu ZA, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amegah AK, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Andersen HH, Anderson BO, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atique S, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Bahit MC, Balakrishnan K, Barac A, Barber RM, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu S, Batis C, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bell B, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhansali A, Bhatt S, Biadgilign S, Bikbov B, Bisanzio D, Bjertness E, Blore JD, Borschmann R, Boufous S, Bourne RRA, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Broday DM, Brugha TS, Brunekreef B, Butt ZA, Cahill LE, Calabria B, Campos-Nonato IR, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Carrero JJ, Casey DC, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Chang JC, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Choi JYJ, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Coates MM, Colquhoun SM, Manzano AGC, Cooper LT, Cooperrider K, Cornaby L, Cortinovis M, Crump JA, Cuevas-Nasu L, Damasceno A, Dandona R, Darby SC, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davis AC, Davletov K, de Castro EF, De la Cruz-Góngora V, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Del Gobbo LC, del Pozo-Cruz B, Dellavalle RP, Deribew A, Jarlais DCD, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Diaz-Torné C, Dicker D, Ding EL, Dorsey ER, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Elyazar I, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Fahimi S, Faraon EJA, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Fleming T, Foigt N, Foreman K, Fowkes FGR, Franklin RC, Fürst T, Futran ND, Gakidou E, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Goenka S, Gomez-Cabrera MC, Gomez-Dantes H, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Gugnani HC, Guillemin F, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gutiérrez RA, Haagsma JA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hassanvand MS, Hassen TA, Havmoeller R, Heredia-Pi IB, Hernández-Llanes NF, Heydarpour P, Hoek HW, Hoffman HJ, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang JJ, Husseini A, Hutchings SJ, Huybrechts I, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Ileanu BV, Inoue M, Jacobs TA, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Jansen HAFM, Jassal SK, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jayatilleke AU, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jha V, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jin Y, Johnson CO, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Kasaeian A, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazi DS, Keiyoro PN, Kemmer L, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Khatibzadeh S, Khera S, Khoja TAM, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim CI, Kim D, Kimokoti RW, Kissoon N, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Kokubo Y, Kopec JA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Kromhout H, Krueger H, Ku T, Defo BK, Kuchenbecker RS, Bicer BK, Kuipers EJ, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lan Q, Larsson A, Latif AA, Lawrynowicz AEB, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leung J, Levi M, Li X, Li Y, Liang J, Liu S, Lloyd BK, Logroscino G, Lotufo PA, Lunevicius R, MacIntyre M, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Manamo WAA, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Martin RV, Martinez-Raga J, Masiye F, Matsushita K, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Meaney PA, Medina C, Mehari A, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mensink GBM, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mesfin YM, Mhimbira FA, Millear A, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Misganaw A, Mock CN, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Mola GLD, Monasta L, Hernandez JCM, Montico M, Morawska L, Mori R, Mozaffarian D, Mueller UO, Mullany E, Mumford JE, Murthy GVS, Nachega JB, Naheed A, Nangia V, Nassiri N, Newton JN, Ng M, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Nyakarahuka L, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olivares PR, Olsen H, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Orozco R, Ortiz A, Ota E, PA M, Pana A, Park EK, Parry CD, Parsaeian M, Patel T, Caicedo AJP, Patil ST, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Plass D, Polinder S, Pond CD, Pope CA, Pope D, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prasad NM, Qorbani M, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Raju M, Ram U, Rana SM, Ranganathan K, Rao P, García CAR, Refaat AH, Rehm CD, Rehm J, Reinig N, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Ribeiro AL, Rivera JA, Roba HS, Rodriguez A, Rodriguez-Ramirez S, Rojas-Rueda D, Roman Y, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Saleh MM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Riera L, Sanchez-Niño MD, Sánchez-Pimienta TG, Sandar L, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Schmidhuber J, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Scott JG, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shaddick G, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Levy TS, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Sheth KN, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shishani K, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silveira DGA, Silverberg JI, Simard EP, Sindi S, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh PK, Slepak EL, Soljak M, Soneji S, Sorensen RJD, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Steckling N, Steel N, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Stöckl H, Stranges S, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Takahashi K, Talongwa RT, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tavakkoli M, Taye BW, Taylor HR, Tedla BA, Tefera WM, Tegegne TK, Tekle DY, Terkawi AS, Thakur JS, Thomas BA, Thomas ML, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tobe-Gai R, Tobollik M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Towbin JA, Tran BX, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimparis N, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Donkelaar A, van Os J, Varakin YY, Vasankari T, Veerman JL, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Waller SG, Wang JL, Wang L, Wang Y, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Woolf AD, Wubshet M, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yakob B, Yalew AZ, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zhu J, Zipkin B, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1659-1724. [PMID: 27733284 PMCID: PMC5388856 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31679-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2646] [Impact Index Per Article: 330.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2016] [Revised: 08/13/2016] [Accepted: 08/19/2016] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. METHODS We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). FINDINGS Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. INTERPRETATION Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Wang H, Naghavi M, Allen C, Barber RM, Bhutta ZA, Carter A, Casey DC, Charlson FJ, Chen AZ, Coates MM, Coggeshall M, Dandona L, Dicker DJ, Erskine HE, Ferrari AJ, Fitzmaurice C, Foreman K, Forouzanfar MH, Fraser MS, Fullman N, Gething PW, Goldberg EM, Graetz N, Haagsma JA, Hay SI, Huynh C, Johnson CO, Kassebaum NJ, Kinfu Y, Kulikoff XR, Kutz M, Kyu HH, Larson HJ, Leung J, Liang X, Lim SS, Lind M, Lozano R, Marquez N, Mensah GA, Mikesell J, Mokdad AH, Mooney MD, Nguyen G, Nsoesie E, Pigott DM, Pinho C, Roth GA, Salomon JA, Sandar L, Silpakit N, Sligar A, Sorensen RJD, Stanaway J, Steiner C, Teeple S, Thomas BA, Troeger C, VanderZanden A, Vollset SE, Wanga V, Whiteford HA, Wolock T, Zoeckler L, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Abreu DMX, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abyu GY, Achoki T, Adelekan AL, Ademi Z, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afanvi KA, Afshin A, Agardh EE, Agarwal A, Agrawal A, Kiadaliri AA, Ajala ON, Akanda AS, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Lami FHA, Alabed S, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NKM, Alasfoor D, Aldhahri SF, Aldridge RW, Alegretti MA, Aleman AV, Alemu ZA, Alexander LT, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amegah AK, Ameh EA, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Andersen HH, Anderson BO, Anderson GM, Antonio CAT, Aregay AF, Ärnlöv J, Arsenijevic VSA, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Atique S, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Bahit MC, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu A, Basu S, Bayou YT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Belay HA, Bell B, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Biadgilign S, Bikbov B, Abdulhak AAB, Biroscak BJ, Biryukov S, Bjertness E, Blore JD, Blosser CD, Bohensky MA, Borschmann R, Bose D, Bourne RRA, Brainin M, Brayne CEG, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Brewer JD, Brown A, Brown J, Brugha TS, Buckle GC, Butt ZA, Calabria B, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Carapetis JR, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Carrero JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Cercy K, Cerda J, Chen W, Chew A, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chibueze CE, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Colistro V, Colomar M, Colquhoun SM, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Cortinovis M, Cowie BC, Crump JA, Damsere-Derry J, Danawi H, Dandona R, Daoud F, Darby SC, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davey G, Davis AC, Davitoiu DV, de Castro EF, de Jager P, Leo DD, Degenhardt L, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Deribew A, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Diaz-Torné C, Ding EL, dos Santos KPB, Dossou E, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ellenbogen RG, Ellingsen CL, Elyazar I, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Faghmous IDA, Fahimi S, Faraon EJA, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Flaxman A, Foigt N, Fowkes FGR, Franca EB, Franklin RC, Friedman J, Frostad J, Fürst T, Futran ND, Gall SL, Gambashidze K, Gamkrelidze A, Ganguly P, Gankpé FG, Gebre T, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gebru AA, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Ghoshal AG, Gibney KB, Gillum RF, Gilmour S, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Glaser E, Godwin WW, Gomez-Dantes H, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gosselin RA, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Greaves F, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu AD, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hancock J, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Havmoeller R, Heckbert SR, Heredia-Pi IB, Heydarpour P, Hilderink HBM, Hoek HW, Hogg RS, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Htike MMT, Hu G, Huang C, Huang H, Huiart L, Husseini A, Huybrechts I, Huynh G, Iburg KM, Innos K, Inoue M, Iyer VJ, Jacobs TA, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, James P, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jimenez-Corona A, Jonas JB, Joshi TK, Kabir Z, Kamal R, Kan H, Kant S, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Karletsos D, Karthikeyan G, Kasaeian A, Katibeh M, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kayibanda JF, Keiyoro PN, Kemmer L, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kereselidze M, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khera S, Khoja TAM, Kieling C, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kissela BM, Kissoon N, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Krog NH, Defo BK, Bicer BK, Kudom AA, Kuipers EJ, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lal A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam H, Lam JO, Langan SM, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Laryea DO, Latif AA, Lawrynowicz AEB, Leigh J, Levi M, Li Y, Lindsay MP, Lipshultz SE, Liu PY, Liu S, Liu Y, Lo LT, Logroscino G, Lotufo PA, Lucas RM, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma S, Machado VMP, Mackay MT, MacLachlan JH, Razek HMAE, Magdy M, Razek AE, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Manamo WAA, Mandisarisa J, Mangalam S, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Margolis DJ, Martin GR, Martinez-Raga J, Marzan MB, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Massano J, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, McGarvey ST, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McMahon BJ, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Mehndiratta MM, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mhimbira FA, Micha R, Millear A, Miller TR, Mirarefin M, Misganaw A, Mock CN, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Mohan V, Mola GLD, Monasta L, Hernandez JCM, Montero P, Montico M, Montine TJ, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morawska L, Morgan K, Mori R, Mozaffarian D, Mueller UO, Murthy GVS, Murthy S, Musa KI, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naidoo KS, Naik N, Naldi L, Nangia V, Nash D, Nejjari C, Neupane S, Newton CR, Newton JN, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, de Dieu Ngirabega J, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Nomura M, Norheim OF, Norman PE, Norrving B, Nyakarahuka L, Ogbo FA, Ohkubo T, Ojelabi FA, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz A, Osman M, Ota E, Ozdemir R, PA M, Pain A, Pandian JD, Pant PR, Papachristou C, Park EK, Park JH, Parry CD, Parsaeian M, Caicedo AJP, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paul VK, Pearce N, Pedro JM, Stokic LP, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Plass D, Platts-Mills JA, Polinder S, Pope CA, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prabhakaran D, Qorbani M, Quame-Amaglo J, Quistberg DA, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajavi Z, Rajsic S, Raju M, Rakovac I, Rana SM, Ranabhat CL, Rangaswamy T, Rao P, Rao SR, Refaat AH, Rehm J, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Ribeiro AL, Ricci S, Blancas MJR, Roberts B, Roca A, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Roy NK, Ruhago GM, Sagar R, Saha S, Sahathevan R, Saleh MM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Sanchez-Riera L, Santos IS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Schaub MP, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford KA, Shaddick G, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shakh-Nazarova M, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Shen Z, Shepard DS, Sheth KN, Shetty BP, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Silva DAS, Silveira DGA, Silverberg JI, Simard EP, Singh A, Singh GM, Singh JA, Singh OP, Singh PK, Singh V, Soneji S, Søreide K, Soriano JB, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Stranges S, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Sur P, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Takahashi K, Takala JS, Talongwa RT, Tandon N, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Taylor HR, Ao BJT, Tedla BA, Tefera WM, Have MT, Terkawi AS, Tesfay FH, Tessema GA, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tirschwell DL, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Towbin JA, Traebert J, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Trujillo U, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uthman OA, Dingenen RV, van Donkelaar A, Vasankari T, Vasconcelos AMN, Venketasubramanian N, Vidavalur R, Vijayakumar L, Villalpando S, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Wagner JA, Wagner GR, Wallin MT, Wang L, Watkins DA, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, White RA, Wijeratne T, Wilkinson JD, Williams HC, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyohannes SM, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Wong JQ, Woolf AD, Xavier D, Xiao Q, Xu G, Yakob B, Yalew AZ, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yebyo HG, Yip P, Yirsaw BD, Yonemoto N, Yonga G, Younis MZ, Yu S, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zannad F, Zavala DE, Zeeb H, Zeleke BM, Zhang H, Zodpey S, Zonies D, Zuhlke LJ, Vos T, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1459-1544. [PMID: 27733281 PMCID: PMC5388903 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31012-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4031] [Impact Index Per Article: 503.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. METHODS We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). FINDINGS Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. INTERPRETATION At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Kassebaum NJ, Arora M, Barber RM, Bhutta ZA, Brown J, Carter A, Casey DC, Charlson FJ, Coates MM, Coggeshall M, Cornaby L, Dandona L, Dicker DJ, Erskine HE, Ferrari AJ, Fitzmaurice C, Foreman K, Forouzanfar MH, Fullman N, Gething PW, Goldberg EM, Graetz N, Haagsma JA, Hay SI, Johnson CO, Kemmer L, Khalil IA, Kinfu Y, Kutz MJ, Kyu HH, Leung J, Liang X, Lim SS, Lozano R, Mensah GA, Mikesell J, Mokdad AH, Mooney MD, Naghavi M, Nguyen G, Nsoesie E, Pigott DM, Pinho C, Rankin Z, Reinig N, Salomon JA, Sandar L, Smith A, Sorensen RJD, Stanaway J, Steiner C, Teeple S, Troeger C, Truelsen T, VanderZanden A, Wagner JA, Wanga V, Whiteford HA, Zhou M, Zoeckler L, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abraham B, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Achoki T, Ackerman IN, Adebiyi AO, Adedeji IA, Adsuar JC, Afanvi KA, Afshin A, Agardh EE, Agarwal A, Agarwal SK, Ahmed MB, Kiadaliri AA, Ahmadieh H, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NKM, Aldhahri SF, Alegretti MA, Aleman AV, Alemu ZA, Alexander LT, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amegah AK, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Anderson GM, Anderson BO, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Arsenijevic VSA, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu S, Bayou TA, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bell B, Bell ML, Benjet C, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhansali A, Bhatt S, Biadgilign S, Bienhoff K, Bikbov B, Abdulhak AAB, Biryukov S, Bisanzio D, Bjertness E, Blore JD, Borschmann R, Boufous S, Bourne RRA, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brugha TS, Buchbinder R, Buckle GC, Butt ZA, Calabria B, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Carabin H, Carapetis JR, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Chang JC, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chibueze CE, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Choudhury L, Christensen H, Ciobanu LG, Colistro V, Colomar M, Colquhoun SM, Cortinovis M, Crump JA, Damasceno A, Dandona R, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davey G, Davis AC, Leo DD, Degenhardt L, Gobbo LCD, Derrett S, Jarlais DCD, deVeber GA, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Ding EL, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ebrahimi H, Ellenbogen RG, Elyazar I, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Fahimi S, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Foigt N, Fowkes FGR, Franklin RC, Friedman J, Frostad J, Fürst T, Futran ND, Gabbe B, Gankpé FG, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Geleijnse JM, Gibney KB, Gillum RF, Ginawi IAM, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin WW, Gomez-Dantes H, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Gugnani H, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu AD, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hassanvand MS, Hassen TA, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hedayati MT, Heredia-Pi IB, Heydarpour P, Hoek HW, Hoffman DJ, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Huang H, Huang JJ, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Innos K, Inoue M, Jacobsen KH, Jauregui A, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jha V, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jimenez-Corona A, Jin Y, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kajungu DK, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Kandel A, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Kasaeian A, Katibeh M, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazi DS, Keiyoro PN, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khoja TAM, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kissoon N, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kopec JA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Defo BK, Kuchenbecker RS, Bicer BK, Kuipers EJ, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Larsson A, Latif AA, Lavados PM, Lawrynowicz AEB, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leung R, Li Y, Li Y, Lipshultz SE, Liu PY, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Logroscino G, Looker KJ, Lotufo PA, Lucas RM, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Razek HMAE, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Marcenes W, Martinez-Raga J, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mesfin YM, Mhimbira FA, Millear A, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Mitchell PB, Mock CN, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Monasta L, Hernandez JCM, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Mori R, Mueller UO, Mumford JE, Murdoch ME, Murthy GVS, Nachega JB, Naheed A, Naldi L, Nangia V, Newton JN, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Nolla JM, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oren E, Ortiz A, Ota E, Oyekale AS, PA M, Park EK, Parsaeian M, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pedro JM, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Pishgar F, Plass D, Polinder S, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prasad NM, Qorbani M, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai D, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Raju M, Ram U, Ranganathan K, Refaat AH, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Reynolds A, Ribeiro AL, Ricci S, Roba HS, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Roy A, Sackey BB, Sagar R, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santos IS, Santos JV, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Sheth KN, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silverberg JI, Simard EP, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh PK, Skirbekk V, Skogen JC, Soljak M, Søreide K, Sorensen RJD, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Steiner TJ, Stovner LJ, Stranges S, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Taylor HR, Ao BJT, Tegegne TK, Tekle DY, Terkawi AS, Tessema GA, Thakur JS, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimbaris M, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Gool CH, van Os J, Vasankari T, Vasconcelos AMN, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Wallin MT, Wang L, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Wijeratne T, Wilkinson JD, Williams HC, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyohannes SM, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zeeb H, Zodpey S, Zonies D, Zuhlke LJ, Vos T, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1603-1658. [PMID: 27733283 PMCID: PMC5388857 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31460-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1387] [Impact Index Per Article: 173.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2016] [Revised: 08/11/2016] [Accepted: 08/16/2016] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. METHODS We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. INTERPRETATION Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Wang H, Wolock TM, Carter A, Nguyen G, Kyu HH, Gakidou E, Hay SI, Mills EJ, Trickey A, Msemburi W, Coates MM, Mooney MD, Fraser MS, Sligar A, Salomon J, Larson HJ, Friedman J, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbas KM, Razek MMAE, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abera SF, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Abyu GY, Adebiyi AO, Adedeji IA, Adelekan AL, Adofo K, Adou AK, Ajala ON, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Lami FHA, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NKM, Alasfoor D, Aldhahri SFS, Aldridge RW, Alegretti MA, Aleman AV, Alemu ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho R, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Mohammad R, Al-Raddadi S, Alsharif U, Alvarez E, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amegah AK, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Atique S, Atkins LS, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Bacha U, Badawi A, Barac A, Bärnighausen T, Basu A, Bayou TA, Bayou YT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhatia E, Bhutta ZA, Biadgilign S, Bikbov B, Birlik SM, Bisanzio D, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brown A, Burch M, Butt ZA, Campuzano JC, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Chang HY, Chang JC, Chavan L, Chen W, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cooper C, Dahiru T, Damtew SA, Dandona L, Dandona R, das Neves J, de Jager P, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Deribew A, Des Jarlais DC, Dharmaratne SD, Ding EL, Doshi PP, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Elshrek YM, Elyazar I, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Faghmous IDA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JC, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Foigt N, Fullman N, Fürst T, Gankpé FG, Gebre T, Gebremedhin AT, Gebru AA, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Gething PW, Ghiwot TT, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Glaser E, Goenka S, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goto A, Gugnani HC, Guimaraes MDC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Haagsma J, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagan H, Hailu GB, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Harun KM, Havmoeller R, Hedayati MT, Heredia-Pi IB, Hoek HW, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Hu G, Huang H, Huang JJ, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Innos K, Iyer VJ, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Javanbakht M, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jha V, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kamal R, Kan H, Karch A, Karema CK, Karletsos D, Kasaeian A, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kayibanda JF, Keiyoro PN, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khalil I, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khubchandani J, Kim YJ, Kinfu Y, Kivipelto M, Kokubo Y, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Defo BK, Bicer BK, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Lal DK, Lam H, Lam JO, Langan SM, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Leigh J, Leung R, Li Y, Lim SS, Lipshultz SE, Liu S, Lloyd BK, Logroscino G, Lotufo PA, Lunevicius R, Razek HMAE, Mahdavi M, Mahesh PA, Majdan M, Majeed A, Makhlouf C, Malekzadeh R, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Martinez-Raga J, Marzan MB, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Mayosi BM, McKee M, Meaney PA, Mehndiratta MM, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mhimbira FA, Miller TR, Mikesell J, Mirarefin M, Mohammad KA, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Moradi-Lakeh M, Mori R, Mueller UO, Murimira B, Murthy GVS, Naheed A, Naldi L, Nangia V, Nash D, Nawaz H, Nejjari C, Ngalesoni FN, de Dieu Ngirabega J, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Nyakarahuka L, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Ojelabi FA, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Ota E, Park HY, Park JH, Patil ST, Patten SB, Paul VK, Pearson K, Peprah EK, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pillay JD, Plass D, Polinder S, Pourmalek F, Prokop DM, Qorbani M, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Rana SM, Rao PV, Remuzzi G, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roy A, Ruhago GM, Saeedi MY, Sagar R, Saleh MM, Sanabria JR, Santos IS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Sawhney M, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shaikh MA, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Shibuya K, Shin HH, Sigfusdottir ID, Silpakit N, Silva DAS, Silveira DGA, Simard EP, Sindi S, Singh JA, Singh OP, Singh PK, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Soneji S, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soti DO, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Sunguya BF, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Talongwa RT, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Tedla BA, Tekle T, Shifa GT, Temesgen AM, Terkawi AS, Tesfay FH, Tessema GA, Thapa K, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Tobe-Gai R, Topor-Madry R, Towbin JA, Tran BX, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimparis N, Tura AK, Ukwaja KN, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, Venketasubramanian N, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wang L, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Wijeratne T, Wilkinson JD, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Wong JQ, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yakob B, Yalew AZ, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yebyo HG, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Yu S, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zeeb H, Zhang H, Zhao Y, Zodpey S, Zoeckler L, Zuhlke LJ, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet HIV 2016; 3:e361-e387. [PMID: 27470028 PMCID: PMC5056319 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3018(16)30087-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 405] [Impact Index Per Article: 50.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2016] [Revised: 06/09/2016] [Accepted: 06/17/2016] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. METHODS For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. FINDINGS Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. INTERPRETATION Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute of Mental Health and National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health.
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Acosta F, Chernyaeva E, Mendoza L, Sambrano D, Correa R, Rotkevich M, Tarté M, Hernández H, Velazco B, de Escobar C, de Waard JH, Goodridge A. Mycobacterium bovis in Panama, 2013. Emerg Infect Dis 2015; 21. [PMID: 25988479 PMCID: PMC4451894 DOI: 10.3201/eid2106.141821] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Panama remains free of zoonotic tuberculosis caused by Mycobacterium bovis. However, DNA fingerprinting of 7 M. bovis isolates from a 2013 bovine tuberculosis outbreak indicated minimal homology with strains previously circulating in Panama. M. bovis dispersion into Panama highlights the need for enhanced genotype testing to track zoonotic infections.
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Abstract
Tuberculosis (TB) is a disease associated with inequality, and wise investment of economic resources is considered critical to its control. Panama has recently secured its status as an upper-middle-income country with robust economic growth. However, the prioritisation of resources for TB control remains a major challenge. In this article, we highlight areas that urgently require action to effectively reduce TB burden to minimal levels. Our conclusions suggest the need for fund allocation and a multidisciplinary approach to ensure prompt laboratory diagnosis, treatment assurance and workforce reinforcement, complemented by applied and operational research, development and innovation.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Tarajia
- Departamento de Neumología, Hospital Santo Tomas, Panama City, Panama; Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología, Ciudad del Saber, Panama; Department of Biotechnology, Acharya Nagarjuna University, Guntur, India
| | - A Goodridge
- Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología, Ciudad del Saber, Panama
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Tarajia M, Jaramillo F, Pernett A, Santamaría N, Goodridge A. Dyspnoea, weight loss, fever, and headache caused by extrapulmonary tuberculosis in a prison inmate. Lancet 2014; 384:1400. [PMID: 25307843 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(14)61456-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/24/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Musharaf Tarajia
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología, Ciudad del Saber, Panama; Department of Biotechnology, Acharya Nagarjuna University, Guntur, India.
| | - Fabio Jaramillo
- Division of Pulmonary Medicine, Hospital Santo Tomás, Panama City, Panama
| | - Amaranta Pernett
- Division of Pulmonary Medicine, Hospital Santo Tomás, Panama City, Panama
| | - Nelson Santamaría
- Division of Pulmonary Medicine, Hospital Santo Tomás, Panama City, Panama
| | - Amador Goodridge
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Centro de Biología Molecular y Celular de Enfermedades, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología, Ciudad del Saber, Panama
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Tarajia M, Salas E, De Waard J, Goodridge A. Enzymatic and endpoint methods yield comparable adenosine deaminase activity in pleural fluid samples. Clin Chem Lab Med 2014; 52:e297-300. [PMID: 24978902 DOI: 10.1515/cclm-2014-0551] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2014] [Accepted: 06/12/2014] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
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Ng A, Weeks-Galindo C, Goodridge A. Storage in ultra-low-temperature decreases the levels of IgM anticardiolipin antibody in serum samples from tuberculosis patients. Ther Adv Respir Dis 2014; 8:93-95. [PMID: 24902986 DOI: 10.1177/1753465814534911] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
The evaluation of novel tuberculosis (TB) biomarkers relies on analysis of previously stored sample sets. We aimed to determine the effect of storage temperature on serum IgM anticardiolipin antibody levels in samples from TB patients. Ultra-low-temperature storage decreased IgM anticardiolipin levels. We recommend against using ultra-low-temperature storage when investigating IgM anticardiolipin biomarker-based tests.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Cheyenne Weeks-Galindo
- Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología, INDICASAT-AIP, City of Knowledge, Panama
| | - Amador Goodridge
- Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología, INDICASAT-AIP,Edificio 219, City of Knowledge, 0843-01103, Panama
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Sambrano D, Correa R, Almengor P, Domínguez A, Vega S, Goodridge A. Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from single outpatient clinic in Panama City exhibit wide genetic diversity. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2014; 91:310-2. [PMID: 24865686 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.14-0134] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding Mycobacterium tuberculosis biodiversity and transmission is significant for tuberculosis control. This short report aimed to determine the genetic diversity of M. tuberculosis isolates from an outpatient clinic in Panama City. A total of 62 M. tuberculosis isolates were genotyped by 12 loci mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units-variable number of tandem repeats (MIRU-VNTR) and Spoligotyping. Forty-five (72.6%) of the isolates showed unique MIRU-VNTR genotypes, and 13 (21%) of the isolates were grouped into four clusters. Four isolates showed polyclonal MIRU-VNTR genotypes. The MIRU-VNTR Hunter-Gaston discriminatory index reached 0.988. The Spoligotyping analysis revealed 16 M. tuberculosis families, including Latin American-Mediterranean, Harlem, and Beijing. These findings suggest a wide genetic diversity of M. tuberculosis isolates at one outpatient clinic. A detailed molecular epidemiology survey is now warranted, especially following second massive immigration for local Panama Canal expansion activities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dilcia Sambrano
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades (CBCME) del Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT AIP), Ciudad del Saber, Panamá; Department of Biotechnology, Acharya Nagarjuna University, Guntur, India; Laboratorio Clínico, Complejo Hospitalario Metropolitano Dr. Arnulfo Arias Madrid, Caja de Seguro Social (CHMDrAAM-CSS), Panamá, Panamá; Departamento de Ciencias de Laboratorio Clínico, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Panamá, Panamá, Panamá
| | - Ricardo Correa
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades (CBCME) del Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT AIP), Ciudad del Saber, Panamá; Department of Biotechnology, Acharya Nagarjuna University, Guntur, India; Laboratorio Clínico, Complejo Hospitalario Metropolitano Dr. Arnulfo Arias Madrid, Caja de Seguro Social (CHMDrAAM-CSS), Panamá, Panamá; Departamento de Ciencias de Laboratorio Clínico, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Panamá, Panamá, Panamá
| | - Pedro Almengor
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades (CBCME) del Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT AIP), Ciudad del Saber, Panamá; Department of Biotechnology, Acharya Nagarjuna University, Guntur, India; Laboratorio Clínico, Complejo Hospitalario Metropolitano Dr. Arnulfo Arias Madrid, Caja de Seguro Social (CHMDrAAM-CSS), Panamá, Panamá; Departamento de Ciencias de Laboratorio Clínico, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Panamá, Panamá, Panamá
| | - Amada Domínguez
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades (CBCME) del Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT AIP), Ciudad del Saber, Panamá; Department of Biotechnology, Acharya Nagarjuna University, Guntur, India; Laboratorio Clínico, Complejo Hospitalario Metropolitano Dr. Arnulfo Arias Madrid, Caja de Seguro Social (CHMDrAAM-CSS), Panamá, Panamá; Departamento de Ciencias de Laboratorio Clínico, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Panamá, Panamá, Panamá
| | - Silvio Vega
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades (CBCME) del Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT AIP), Ciudad del Saber, Panamá; Department of Biotechnology, Acharya Nagarjuna University, Guntur, India; Laboratorio Clínico, Complejo Hospitalario Metropolitano Dr. Arnulfo Arias Madrid, Caja de Seguro Social (CHMDrAAM-CSS), Panamá, Panamá; Departamento de Ciencias de Laboratorio Clínico, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Panamá, Panamá, Panamá
| | - Amador Goodridge
- Tuberculosis Biomarker Research Unit, Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de las Enfermedades (CBCME) del Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT AIP), Ciudad del Saber, Panamá; Department of Biotechnology, Acharya Nagarjuna University, Guntur, India; Laboratorio Clínico, Complejo Hospitalario Metropolitano Dr. Arnulfo Arias Madrid, Caja de Seguro Social (CHMDrAAM-CSS), Panamá, Panamá; Departamento de Ciencias de Laboratorio Clínico, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Panamá, Panamá, Panamá
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Goodridge A, Zhang T, Miyata T, Lu S, Riley LW. Antiphospholipid IgM antibody response in acute and chronic Mycobacterium tuberculosis mouse infection model. Clin Respir J 2013; 8:137-44. [PMID: 23910993 DOI: 10.1111/crj.12049] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2013] [Revised: 06/24/2013] [Accepted: 07/25/2013] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS The clinical management of tuberculosis (TB) could be greatly improved by an affordable biomarker test to monitor treatment response. Here, we examined changes in immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibody response to lipids as a potential biomarker for monitoring TB treatment in an experimental mouse model. METHODS We performed enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay to investigate changes in IgM antibody response against cardiolipin (CL), phosphatidylcholine (PTC), phosphatidylethanolamine (PE), phosphatidylinositol (PI) and sphingolipid (SL) in BALB/c mice that were treated after being infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis for 4 weeks (acute infection) and 20 weeks (chronic infection). Cytokine levels [interleukin (IL)-5, IL-10, interferon-gamma (IFN-γ), monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1)] in lung and spleen homogenates as well as in blood were also compared. RESULTS In both acutely and chronically infected mice, lungs were sterilised of M. tuberculosis infection after 8 weeks of treatment. The IgM response to CL, PTC, PE, PI and SL were consistently elevated throughout the course of infection in chronically infected mice compared with acutely infected mice. In acutely infected mice, the IgM antibody response against CL significantly decreased after 8 weeks of treatment, but not against other lipids. In chronically infected mice, the IgM response showed no significant changes against any of the lipids after 8 weeks of treatment. Of the cytokines examined, only MCP-1 levels in lungs decreased significantly after treatment. CONCLUSION These findings demonstrate that antilipid IgM antibody can remain elevated in chronically infected mice, but with treatment, only anti-CL IgM antibody levels decreased together with M. tuberculosis bacterial burden in acutely infected mice. Treatment did not affect antilipid IgM levels in chronically infected mice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amador Goodridge
- Institute of Scientific Research and High Technology Services (INDICASAT-AIP), City of Knowledge, Panama, Panama; Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
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Rosas S, Bravo J, Gonzalez F, de Moreno N, Sanchez J, Gavilan RG, Goodridge A. High clustering rates of multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis genotypes in Panama. BMC Infect Dis 2013; 13:442. [PMID: 24053690 PMCID: PMC3849774 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2334-13-442] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/10/2013] [Accepted: 09/17/2013] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Tuberculosis continues to be one of the leading causes of death worldwide and in the American region. Although multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) remains a threat to TB control in Panama, few studies have focused in typing MDR-TB strains. The aim of our study was to characterize MDR Mycobacterium tuberculosis clinical isolates using PCR-based genetic markers. Methods From 2002 to 2004, a total of 231 Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from TB cases country-wide were screened for antibiotic resistance, and MDR-TB isolates were further genotyped by double repetitive element PCR (DRE-PCR), (GTG)5-PCR and spoligotyping. Results A total of 37 isolates (0.85%) were resistant to both isoniazid (INH) and rifampicin (RIF). Among these 37 isolates, only two (5.4%) were resistant to all five drugs tested. Dual genotyping using DRE-PCR and (GTG)5-PCR of MDR Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates revealed eight clusters comprising 82.9% of the MDR-TB strain collection, and six isolates (17.1%) showed unique fingerprints. The spoligotyping of MDR-TB clinical isolates identified 68% as members of the 42 (LAM9) family genotype. Conclusion Our findings suggest that MDR Mycobacterium tuberculosis is highly clustered in Panama’s metropolitan area corresponding to Panama City and Colon City, and our study reveals the genotype distribution across the country.
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Affiliation(s)
- Samantha Rosas
- Centro de Biología Celular y Molecular de Enfermedades, Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología (INDICASAT-AIP), Ciudad Del Saber, Panama, Panama.
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Goodridge A, Correa R, Castro P, Escobar C, de Waard JH. Serum samples can be substituted by plasma samples for the diagnosis of paratuberculosis. Prev Vet Med 2013; 112:147-9. [PMID: 23906389 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2013.06.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2013] [Revised: 06/03/2013] [Accepted: 06/23/2013] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Employing plasma samples rather than serum samples for serological paratuberculosis diagnosis is practical, especially when bovine TB is assessed in the same cattle herd with the gamma interferon bovine avian (IFN-γ BA) test. We demonstrate that antibody titers in serum and plasma samples, utilizing the PARACHECK(®) ELISA kit, are highly comparable (Cohen's kappa test, k=0.955). We conclude that serum can be replaced with plasma in this commercially available antibody detection assay resulting in working hour savings for sampling and blood sample work-up and cost reductions for materials and sample storage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amador Goodridge
- Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Servicios de Alta Tecnología INDICASAT-AIP, City of Knowledge, Panama.
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