The Incidence Trend of Type 1 Diabetes among Children and Adolescents 0-14 Years of Age in the West, South, and Tripoli Regions of Libya (2009-2018)

Objective

To estimate the incidence rates (IR) and analyse the trend in type 1 diabetes (T1D) among children aged 0-14 years in the West, South, and Tripoli regions of Libya.

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted on Libyan children aged 0-14 years with a new diagnosis of T1D who were admitted and/or had their follow-up at Tripoli Children’s Hospital during the period 2004 to 2018. The data were used to estimate the IR and the age-standardized IR per 100,000 population in the studied region for the years 2009-2018. The IRs by sex and age group (0-4, 5-9, 10-14 years) for every calendar year were assessed.

Results

A total of 1,213 children were diagnosed during the study period (2004-2018), 49.1% were males with a male-to-female ratio of 1:1.03. The mean age (±standard deviation) at diagnosis was 6.3±3.8 years. The distribution of incident cases according to age group 0-4, 5-9, and 10-14 years was 38.2%, 37.8%, and 24.1%, respectively. Poisson regression modelling in the period 2009-2018 revealed an overall trend of a 2.1% increase per annum. In the period 2014-2018, the overall age-adjusted IR was 31.7 (95% confidence interval: 29.2-34.2) per 100,000 population, the IRs of age groups 0-4, 5-9, and 10-14 years were 36.0, 37.4, and 21.6 per 100,000, respectively.

Conclusion

The incidence of T1D in Libyan children in the West, South, and Tripoli regions appears to be rising, with a higher rate in the 0-4 and 5-9 year age groups.

Cancer incidence and mortality in 23 000 patients with type 1 diabetes in the UK: Long-term follow-up

Type 2 diabetes is associated with raised risk of several cancers, but for type 1 diabetes risk data are fewer and inconsistent We assembled a cohort of 23 473 UK patients with insulin-treated diabetes diagnosed at ages <30, almost all of whom will have had type 1 diabetes, and for comparison 5058 diagnosed at ages 30 to 49, of whom we estimate two-thirds will have had type 2, and followed them for an average of 30 years for cancer incidence and mortality compared with general population rates. Patients aged <30 at diabetes diagnosis had significantly raised risks only for ovarian (standardised incidence ratio = 1.58; 95% confidence interval 1.16-2.11; P < .01) and vulval (3.55; 1.94-5.96; P < .001) cancers, with greatest risk when diabetes was diagnosed at ages 10-14. Risks of cancer overall (0.89; 0.84-0.95; P < .001) and sites including lung and larynx were significantly diminished. Patients diagnosed with diabetes at ages 30 to 49 had significantly raised risks of liver (1.76;1.08-2.72) and kidney (1.46;1.03-2.00) cancers, and reduced risk of cancer overall (0.89; 0.84-0.95). The raised ovarian and vulval cancer risks in patients with type 1 diabetes, especially with diabetes diagnosed around pubertal ages, suggest possible susceptibility of these organs at puberty to metabolic disruption at diabetes onset. Reduced risk of cancer overall, particularly smoking and alcohol-related sites, might reflect adoption of a healthy lifestyle.

Albuminuria-Related Genetic Biomarkers: Replication and Predictive Evaluation in Individuals with and without Diabetes from the UK Biobank

Increased albuminuria indicates underlying glomerular pathology and is associated with worse renal disease outcomes, especially in diabetic kidney disease. Many single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), associated with albuminuria, could be potentially useful to construct polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for kidney disease. We investigated the diagnostic accuracy of SNPs, previously associated with albuminuria-related traits, on albuminuria and renal injury in the UK Biobank population, with a particular interest in diabetes. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the influence of 91 SNPs on urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR)-related traits and kidney damage (any pathology indicating renal injury), stratifying by diabetes. Weighted PRSs for microalbuminuria and UACR from previous studies were used to calculate the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). CUBN-rs1801239 and DDR1-rs116772905 were associated with all the UACR-derived phenotypes, in both the overall and non-diabetic cohorts, but not with kidney damage. Several SNPs demonstrated different effects in individuals with diabetes compared to those without. SNPs did not improve the AUROC over currently used clinical variables. Many SNPs are associated with UACR or renal injury, suggesting a role in kidney dysfunction, dependent on the presence of diabetes in some cases. However, individual SNPs or PRSs did not improve the diagnostic accuracy for albuminuria or renal injury compared to standard clinical variables.

Subgingival microbial diversity and respiratory decline: A cross-sectional study

AIM

To investigate whether there is an association between subgingival microbial diversity and reduced respiratory function.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A group of dentate 58-72-year-old men in Northern Ireland had a comprehensive periodontal examination including subgingival plaque sampling. DNA was extracted from plaque samples and the V1-V3 regions of the 16S rRNA gene were analysed by high-throughput sequencing and a microbial diversity index (MDI) was derived. Spirometry measurements were made using a wedge bellows spirometer. The primary outcome variable of interest was the percentage of predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (% predicted FEV1 ). Analysis included multiple linear regression with adjustment for various confounders.

RESULTS

Five-hundred and seven men were included in the analysis. The mean age was 63.6 years (SD = 3.1). Of these, 304 (60.0%) men had no or mild periodontitis, 105 (20.7%) had moderate periodontitis and 98 (19.3%) had severe periodontitis. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that a one unit increase in MDI was associated with a 0.71% loss (95% confidence interval: 0.06%-1.35%; p = .03) in % predicted FEV1 after adjustment for all confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

In this group of dentate men from Northern Ireland, subgingival microbial diversity was associated with reduced respiratory function.

Age-period-cohort modelling of type 1 diabetes incidence rates among children included in the EURODIAB 25-year follow-up study

AIMS

Specific patterns in incidence may reveal environmental explanations for type 1 diabetes incidence. We aimed to study type 1 diabetes incidence in European childhood populations to assess whether an increase could be attributed to either period or cohort effects.

METHODS

Nineteen EURODIAB centres provided single year incidence data for ages 0-14 in the 25-year period 1989-2013. Case counts and person years were classified by age, period and cohort (APC) in 1-year classes. APC Poisson regression models of rates were fitted using restricted cubic splines for age, period and cohort per centre and sex. Joint models were fitted for all centres and sexes, to find a parsimonious model.

RESULTS

A total of 57,487 cases were included. In ten and seven of the 19 centres the APC models showed evidence of nonlinear cohort effects or period effects, respectively, in one or both sexes and indications of sex-specific age effects. Models showed a positive linear increase ranging from approximately 0.6 to 6.6%/year. Centres with low incidence rates showed the highest overall increase. A final joint model showed incidence peak at age 11.6 and 12.6 for girls and boys, respectively, and the rate-ratio was according to sex below 1 in ages 5-12.

CONCLUSION

There was reasonable evidence for similar age-specific type 1 diabetes incidence rates across the EURODIAB population and peaks at a younger age for girls than boys. Cohort effects showed nonlinearity but varied between centres and the model did not contribute convincingly to identification of environmental causes of the increase.

Worldwide estimates of incidence of type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents in 2021

AIMS

We aimed to conduct a systematic review of published studies on the incidence of type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents aged under 20 years and provide worldwide incidence estimates for 2021.

METHODS

We used MEDLINE and EMBASE to identify studies reporting type 2 diabetes incidence in children and adolescents published between Jan 2000 and April 2021. We used a negative binomial regression model to develop a prediction equation to estimate incidence rates from country characteristics. We applied the resulting incidence predictions to country population data to estimate numbers of incident cases in children and adolescents by International Diabetes Federation (IDF) region and World Bank income classification group.

RESULTS

We estimate that there are approximately 41,600 new cases of diagnosed type 2 diabetes among children and adolescents in 2021 worldwide. Around 30% and 40% of the worldwide total incident cases are in IDF Western Pacific region and in World Bank upper-middle-income countries, respectively. The three countries with the highest estimated number of incident cases are China, India, and United States of America.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents is substantial. More reliable data are needed to track the incidence of type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents.

Type 1 diabetes in 2017: global estimates of incident and prevalent cases in children and adults

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Data on type 1 diabetes incidence and prevalence are limited, particularly for adults. This study aims to estimate global numbers of incident and prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes in 2017 for all age groups, by country and areas defined by income and region.

METHODS

Incidence rates of type 1 diabetes in children (available from 94 countries) from the IDF Atlas were used and extrapolated to countries without data. Age-specific incidence rates in adults (only known across full age range for fewer than ten countries) were obtained by applying scaling ratios for each adult age group relative to the incidence rate in children. Age-specific incidence rates were applied to population estimates to obtain incident case numbers. Duration of diabetes was estimated from available data and adjusted using differences in childhood mortality rate between countries from United Nations demographic data. Prevalent case numbers were derived by modelling the relationship between prevalence, incidence and disease duration. Sensitivity analyses were performed to quantify the impact of alternative assumptions and model inputs.

RESULTS

Global numbers of incident and prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes were estimated to be 234,710 and 9,004,610, respectively, in 2017. High-income countries, with 17% of the global population, accounted for 49% of global incident cases and 52% of prevalent cases. Asia, which has the largest proportion of the world's population (60%), had the largest number of incident (32%) and prevalent (31%) cases of type 1 diabetes. Globally, 6%, 35%, 43% and 16% of prevalent cases were in the age groups 0-14, 15-39, 40-64 and 65+ years, respectively. Based on sensitivity analyses, the estimates could deviate by ±15%.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Globally, type 1 diabetes represents about 2% of the estimated total cases of diabetes, ranging from less than 1% in certain Pacific countries to more than 15% in Northern European populations in 2017. This study provides information for the development of healthcare and policy approaches to manage type 1 diabetes. The estimates need further validation due to limitations and assumptions related to data availability and estimation methods.

Systemic inflammation and the relationship between periodontitis, edentulism, and all-cause mortality: A 17-year prospective cohort study

AIM

The aim was to investigate the role of systemic inflammation in the relationship between periodontitis, edentulism, and all-cause mortality in a group of men in Northern Ireland aged 58-72 years.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A representative sample of 1558 men had a detailed dental examination between 2001 and 2003. The primary end point was death from any cause. Cox's proportional hazards model was used to assess the longitudinal relationship between periodontitis, edentulism, and all-cause mortality. Accelerated failure time modelling was performed to investigate the mediating role of systemic inflammation.

RESULTS

Mean age of the men at baseline was 64.3 (standard deviation 2.9) years. During a median follow-up of 17 years, 500 (32.1%) men died. After adjustment for confounding variables, compared to men with no/mild periodontitis, edentulous men had a hazard ratio for all-cause mortality of 1.52 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16-1.99) p < .01 and for those with severe periodontitis, it was 1.34 (95% CI 1.06-1.70) p = .01. Systemic inflammation accounted only for a minor mediating pathway effect of 10%.

CONCLUSIONS

There was evidence in this group of men that those who were edentulous or had severe periodontitis had a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality. Systemic inflammation was not a major explanatory mediator of this association.

Changes in glycated hemoglobin, diabetes knowledge, quality of life, and anxiety in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes attending summer camps: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Diabetes summer camps provide children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes opportunities to learn about the disease and its management in a supportive environment to help improve glycemic control, self-reliance, and quality of life. The objective of this quantitative review was to assess the advantages of attending summer camps and study any adverse psychological effects. Studies with a pre/post study design in children and adolescents attending summer camp were systematically reviewed. Five bibliographic databases were searched and relevant data extracted. Random effects meta-analyses were used to combine the individual study results to derive pooled estimates and meta-regression was used to explore between-study heterogeneity. Studies in the literature report short-term improvements in the glycemic control, diabetes knowledge (DK), quality of life (QOL) anxiety, diabetes self-management, and self-esteem. Thirty-three studies were identified, and those outcomes reported in five or more studies were included in meta-analyses. There were significant benefits with a pooled mean change for glycated hemoglobin (95% CI) of -0.59(-0.95,-0.23)% (-6.4[-10.4,-2.5]mmol/mol), and for standardized DK score of 1.99(1.28,2.70) but corresponding changes for QOL 0.17(-0.06,0.39) and for anxiety -0.32(-0.70, 0.06) were not significant. However, all outcomes showed considerable between-study heterogeneity little of which was explained by study characteristics. The findings suggest short-term benefits of camp on metabolic control, DK, QOL and anxiety in T1D children and adolescents, although the latter two were not statistically significant. Further research is warranted with more methodological rigor and longer-term follow-up to determine if there are long-term benefits associated with camp attendance.

A systematic review and participant-level meta-analysis found little association of retinal microvascular caliber with reduced kidney function

Previously, variation in retinal vascular caliber has been reported in association with chronic kidney disease (CKD) but findings remain inconsistent. To help clarify this we conducted individual participant data meta-analysis and aggregate data meta-analysis on summary estimates to evaluate cross-sectional associations between retinal vascular caliber and CKD. A systematic review was performed using Medline and EMBASE for articles published until October 2018. The aggregate analysis used a two-stage approach combining summary estimates from eleven studies (44,803 patients) while the individual participant analysis used a one-stage approach combining raw data from nine studies (33,222 patients). CKD stages 3-5 was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate under 60 mL/min/1.73m2. Retinal arteriolar and venular caliber (central retinal arteriolar and venular equivalent) were assessed from retinal photographs using computer-assisted methods. Logistic regression estimated relative risk of CKD stages 3-5 associated with a 20 μm decrease (approximately one standard deviation) in central retinal arteriolar and venular equivalent. Prevalence of CKD stages 3-5 was 11.2% of 33,222 and 11.3% of 44,803 patients in the individual participant and aggregate data analysis, respectively. No significant associations were detected in adjusted analyses between central retinal arteriolar and venular equivalent and CKD stages 3-5 in the aggregate analysis for central retinal arteriolar relative risk (0.98, 95% confidence interval 0.94-1.03); venular equivalent (0.99, 0.95-1.04) or individual participant central retinal arteriolar (0.99, 0.95-1.04) or venular equivalent (1.01, 0.97-1.05). Thus, meta-analysis provided little evidence to suggest that cross sectional direct measurements of retinal vascular caliber was associated with CKD stages 3-5 in the general population. Hence, meta-analyses of longitudinal studies evaluating the association between retinal parameters and CKD stages 3-5 may be warranted.

DNA Methylation Associated With Diabetic Kidney Disease in Blood-Derived DNA

A subset of individuals with type 1 diabetes will develop diabetic kidney disease (DKD). DKD is heritable and large-scale genome-wide association studies have begun to identify genetic factors that influence DKD. Complementary to genetic factors, we know that a person’s epigenetic profile is also altered with DKD. This study reports analysis of DNA methylation, a major epigenetic feature, evaluating methylome-wide loci for association with DKD. Unique features (n = 485,577; 482,421 CpG probes) were evaluated in blood-derived DNA from carefully phenotyped White European individuals diagnosed with type 1 diabetes with (cases) or without (controls) DKD (n = 677 samples). Explicitly, 150 cases were compared to 100 controls using the 450K array, with subsequent analysis using data previously generated for a further 96 cases and 96 controls on the 27K array, and de novo methylation data generated for replication in 139 cases and 96 controls. Following stringent quality control, raw data were quantile normalized and beta values calculated to reflect the methylation status at each site. The difference in methylation status was evaluated between cases and controls; resultant P-values for array-based data were adjusted for multiple testing. Genes with significantly increased (hypermethylated) and/or decreased (hypomethylated) levels of DNA methylation were considered for biological relevance by functional enrichment analysis using KEGG pathways. Twenty-two loci demonstrated statistically significant fold changes associated with DKD and additional support for these associated loci was sought using independent samples derived from patients recruited with similar inclusion criteria. Markers associated with CCNL1 and ZNF187 genes are supported as differentially regulated loci (P < 10^–8), with evidence also presented for AFF3, which has been identified from a meta-analysis and subsequent replication of genome-wide association studies. Further supporting evidence for differential gene expression in CCNL1 and ZNF187 is presented from kidney biopsy and blood-derived RNA in people with and without kidney disease from NephroSeq. Evidence confirming that methylation sites influence the development of DKD may aid risk prediction tools and stimulate research to identify epigenomic therapies which might be clinically useful for this disease.

The role of biomarkers in predicting pre-eclampsia in high-risk women

Background

There are limited data on performance of biomarkers to predict pre-eclampsia (PE) in high-risk women. This study investigated the ability of FABP4, PAPP-A, PlGF, sFlt-1 and sEng to predict PE in a high-risk group.

Methods

Non-fasting samples were analysed at 11 + 0–13 + 6 (V1) and 19 + 0–21 + 6 weeks (V2) ( n = 195). Logistic regression models were determined. Area under (AUC) the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed. The added value of biomarkers to clinical characteristics for PE prediction was quantified using integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) indices.

Results

Prevalence of PE was 12%. Lower concentrations of sFlt-1:PlGF (V1) and PlGF and PlGF:sEng (V2) were seen in women who developed PE. Controlling for baseline characteristics (V1), a doubling of sFlt-1 (pg/mL) (median 896.0, IQR 725.5–1097.0) and sFlt-1:PlGF (median 21.2, IQR 14.7–32.3) was associated with reduction in odds of PE (OR 0.20, 95% CI 0.06–0.65, P = 0.007 and OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.25–0.92, P = 0.04). Addition of sFlt-1 and sFlt-1:PlGF to baseline characteristics non-significantly improved AUC (0.74) (AUC 0.77, P = 0.40 and 0.76, P = 0.39). NRI and IDI analyses confirmed added clinical utility of sFlt-1 (NRI = 0.539, P = 0.01 and IDI = 0.052, P = 0.03). In V2, doubling of PlGF:sEng (median 71.9, IQR 47.0–102.8) was associated with reduction in the risk of PE (OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.35–0.98, P = 0.04). The addition of PlGF:sEng to baseline characteristics non-significantly improved AUC from 0.78 to 0.82 ( P = 0.25) and improved reclassification of cases (NRI = 0.682, P = 0.002).

Conclusions

Screening tests incorporating first trimester sFlt-1 and second trimester PlGF:sEng have potential to aid PE prediction in high-risk pregnancies.

Worldwide estimates of incidence, prevalence and mortality of type 1 diabetes in children and adolescents: Results from the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas, 9th edition

AIMS

This article describes the methods, results and limitations of the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) Diabetes Atlas 9th edition estimates of worldwide numbers of cases of type 1 diabetes in children and adolescents.

METHODS

Most information in the published literature is in the form of incidence rates derived from registers of newly-diagnosed cases. After systematic review of the published literature and recent conference abstracts, identified studies were quality graded. If no study was available, extrapolation was used to assign a country the rate from an adjacent country with similar characteristics. Estimates of incident cases were obtained by applying incidence rates to United Nations 2019 population estimates. Estimates of prevalent cases were derived from incidence rates after making allowance for higher mortality rates in less-developed countries.

RESULTS

Incidence rates were available for 45% of countries (ranging from 6% in the sub-Saharan Africa region to 77% in the European region). Worldwide annual incidence estimates were 98,200 (128,900) new cases in the under 15 year (under 20 year) age-groups. Corresponding prevalence estimates were 600,900 (1,110,100) existing cases. Compared with estimates in earlier Atlas editions, numbers have increased in most IDF regions, reflecting incidence rate increases, but prevalence estimates have decreased in sub-Saharan Africa because allowance has been made for increased mortality in those with diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Worldwide estimates of numbers of children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes continue to increase.

Mediators of Behavior Change Maintenance in Physical Activity Interventions for Young and Middle-Aged Adults: A Systematic Review

Background

Regular physical activity is important for maintaining physical and mental health. Benefits are optimized when physical activity is maintained. Understanding causal mechanisms is important to inform future interventions.

Purpose

To investigate mediators of physical activity maintenance.

Methods

Six databases were searched (Medline, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Web of Science). Eligibility criteria included adult nonclinical populations, validated measure of physical activity behavior at baseline and at least 6 months postbaseline, control/comparison group(s), and reported mediators of physical activity behavior change. Mediators were examined according to (i) formal mediation tests, (ii) mediator association with physical activity outcome, and (iii) intervention effects on mediators.

Results

There were few formal mediation tests conducted (n = 12/39 included studies), and various other methodological limitations were identified. There was some evidence that effective mediators in formal mediation tests at 6 months and later included the "behavioral processes of change" (n = 5/6). Many of the included interventions were not effective for changing targeted mediators (only 34% of 413 tests of mediator changes were significant).

Conclusions

There were a number of methodological and statistical limitations in the evidence base. In future, prespecified formal mediation tests should be carried out and could be aided by a formal framework. Social and environmental variables should be considered in addition to intrapersonal variables. Improving knowledge of how to change hypothesized mediators, based on theory and evidence, will reveal how physical activity behavior change maintenance can be achieved. Maintenance research would be enhanced by establishing a formal definition of behavior change "maintenance." PROSPERO registration: PROSPERO 2015:CRD- 42015025462.

Clinical utility of ultrasonography-measured visceral adipose tissue depth as a tool in early pregnancy screening for gestational diabetes: a proof-of-concept study

AIM

To examine, in a proof-of-concept study, the ability of visceral adipose tissue depth and subcutaneous fat depth measured in early pregnancy to predict subsequent gestational diabetes, and to assess the performance of these measures as screening tests for gestational diabetes compared with use of the current UK criteria.

METHODS

A total of 100 women in early pregnancy were recruited from a maternity hospital in Belfast, UK. Visceral adipose tissue depth and subcutaneous fat depth were measured, and each participant underwent a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test at 28 weeks' gestation for the diagnosis of gestational diabetes using WHO 2013 criteria.

RESULTS

Eighty women completed the study, of whom 15 (19%) developed gestational diabetes. Increasing visceral adipose tissue depth, but not subcutaneous fat depth, was associated with greater gestational diabetes risk after adjusting for confounding factors (odds ratio for a 1-sd rise 2.09, 95% CI 1.06-4.12; P=0.03). Visceral adipose tissue depth ≥4.27 cm had greater sensitivity compared with current National Institute of Health and Care Excellence criteria (87% vs 40%, respectively; P=0.02) and similar specificity (62% vs 74%, respectively; P=0.15) for identifying gestational diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Ultrasonography-measured visceral adipose tissue in early pregnancy is a potential clinical tool for improving sensitivity of selective screening for gestational diabetes, which, compared with universal oral glucose tolerance testing, is likely to reduce by half the numbers requiring this test. Further larger studies are now required for confirmation, including investigation into impact on clinical outcomes.

Predicting Outcomes from Engagement With Specific Components of an Internet-Based Physical Activity Intervention With Financial Incentives: Process Analysis of a Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial

Background

Investigating participant engagement and nonusage attrition can help identify the likely active ingredients of electronic health interventions. Research on engagement can identify which intervention components predict health outcomes. Research on nonusage attrition is important to make recommendations for retaining participants in future studies.

Objective

This study aimed to investigate engagement and nonusage attrition in the Physical Activity Loyalty (PAL) scheme, a 6-month complex physical activity intervention in workplaces in Northern Ireland. The intervention included financial incentives with reward redemption and self-regulation techniques. Specific objectives were (1) to determine whether engagement in specific intervention components predicted physical activity at 6 months, (2) to determine whether engagement in specific intervention components predicted targeted mediators at 6 months, and (3) to investigate predictors of nonusage attrition for participants recording daily activity via the PAL scheme physical activity monitoring system and logging onto the website.

Methods

Physical activity was assessed at baseline and 6 months using pedometers (Yamax Digiwalker CW-701, Japan). Markers of engagement and website use, monitoring system use, and reward redemption were collected throughout the scheme. Random-effects generalized least-squares regressions determined whether engagement with specific intervention components predicted 6-month physical activity and mediators. Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to investigate predictors of nonusage attrition (days until first 2-week lapse).

Results

A multivariable generalized least-squares regression model (n=230) showed that the frequency of hits on the website’s monitoring and feedback component (regression coefficient [b]=50.2; SE=24.5; P=.04) and the percentage of earned points redeemed for financial incentives (b=9.1; SE=3.3; P=.005) were positively related to 6-month pedometer steps per day. The frequency of hits on the discussion forum (b=−69.3; SE=26.6; P=.009) was negatively related to 6-month pedometer steps per day. Reward redemption was not related to levels of more internal forms of motivation. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models identified several baseline predictors associated with nonusage attrition. These included identified regulation (hazard ratio [HR] 0.88, 95% CI 0.81-0.97), recovery self-efficacy (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.80-0.98), and perceived workplace environment safety (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.02-1.11) for using the physical activity monitoring system. The EuroQoL health index (HR 0.33, 95% CI 0.12-0.91), financial motivation (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.87-0.99), and perceived availability of physical activity opportunities in the workplace environment (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.93-0.99) were associated with website nonusage attrition.

Conclusions

Our results provide evidence opposing one of the main hypotheses of self-determination theory by showing that financial rewards are not necessarily associated with decreases in more internal forms of motivation when offered as part of a complex multicomponent intervention. Identifying baseline predictors of nonusage attrition can help researchers to develop strategies to ensure maximum intervention adherence.

Trial Registration

ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN17975376; http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN17975376 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/76VGZsZug)

Trends and cyclical variation in the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes in 26 European centres in the 25 year period 1989-2013: a multicentre prospective registration study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Against a background of a near-universally increasing incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes, recent reports from some countries suggest a slowing in this increase. Occasional reports also describe cyclical variations in incidence, with periodicities of between 4 and 6 years.

METHODS

Age/sex-standardised incidence rates for the 0- to 14-year-old age group are reported for 26 European centres (representing 22 countries) that have registered newly diagnosed individuals in geographically defined regions for up to 25 years during the period 1989-2013. Poisson regression was used to estimate rates of increase and test for cyclical patterns. Joinpoint regression software was used to fit segmented log-linear relationships to incidence trends.

RESULTS

Significant increases in incidence were noted in all but two small centres, with a maximum rate of increase of 6.6% per annum in a Polish centre. Several centres in high-incidence countries showed reducing rates of increase in more recent years. Despite this, a pooled analysis across all centres revealed a 3.4% (95% CI 2.8%, 3.9%) per annum increase in incidence rate, although there was some suggestion of a reduced rate of increase in the 2004-2008 period. Rates of increase were similar in boys and girls in the 0- to 4-year-old age group (3.7% and 3.7% per annum, respectively) and in the 5- to 9-year-old age group (3.4% and 3.7% per annum, respectively), but were higher in boys than girls in the 10- to 14-year-old age group (3.3% and 2.6% per annum, respectively). Significant 4 year periodicity was detected in four centres, with three centres showing that the most recent peak in fitted rates occurred in 2012.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Despite reductions in the rate of increase in some high-risk countries, the pooled estimate across centres continues to show a 3.4% increase per annum in incidence rate, suggesting a doubling in incidence rate within approximately 20 years in Europe. Although four centres showed support for a cyclical pattern of incidence with a 4 year periodicity, no plausible explanation for this can be given.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a loyalty scheme for physical activity behaviour change maintenance: results from a cluster randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a loyalty scheme based intervention involving rewards for increasing physical activity in public sector employees.

METHODS

A cluster randomised wait-list controlled trial in public sector organisations in Northern Ireland. We randomly assigned clusters (1:1) using a computer generated random sequence. Researchers were masked to allocation, but participants were not. Employees aged 18-65 years with no self-reported medical contraindications to physical activity were included. The Physical Activity Loyalty Scheme (PAL) intervention was based on high-street loyalty cards where participants earned points for minutes of activity that could be redeemed for rewards, complemented by evidence-based behaviour change techniques. The primary outcome was objectively measured mean steps/day at 6 months using a validated pedometer (Yamax Digi-Walker CW-701) over 7 days, assessed with intention to treat analysis. Secondary outcomes included health, mental wellbeing, quality of life, work absenteeism and presenteeism, and use of healthcare resources. Cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit and mediation analyses were conducted. Trial registered with Current Controlled Trials, number ISRCTN17975376.

RESULTS

Between September 2014 and October 2015, we recruited and randomly assigned 37 clusters (from nine organisations; mean clusters per organisation = four) and 853 participants to the intervention (n = 19 with 457 participants) or control group (n = 18 with 396 participants). Primary outcome data were available for 249 (54·4%) intervention and 236 (59·6%) control participants. Mean steps/day were significantly lower in the intervention vs control group (adjusted mean difference = - 336, 95% CI: -612 to - 60, p = 0·02) at 6 months. Participants redeemed only 39% (SD 43%) of their earned points. Using the Quality Adjusted Life Year outcome, the intervention was not cost effective from an NHS/PSS perspective. A net cost analysis from an employer perspective demonstrated the intervention group was associated with a mean of 2·97 h less absenteeism over a 4 week period (p = 0·62), which could result in net savings ranging from £66 to £735 depending on the wage rate employed. At 4-weeks post-baseline there were significant increases in identified regulation, integrated regulation, intrinsic motivation, social norms and intentions in intervention compared to control participants.

CONCLUSIONS

Our mixed results pose challenges that are too infrequently exposed in public heath intervention trials. Although the intervention successfully altered several hypothesised mediating constructs it did not translate into long-term behaviour change. Our incentive level may have been too low to incentivise change, despite being designed a priori by a Contingent Valuation Survey. There were also major re-structuring of several organisations which presented significant implementation challenges, and technical limitations.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN17975376 (Registered 19/09/2014).

Maternal Lipids at 28 Weeks' Gestation and Offspring Adiposity at Age 5 to 7 Years

CONTEXT

Obesity is a global epidemic, and there is a focus on identifying markers of obesity in children with a view to prevention.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to examine prospectively the association of maternal fasting lipids with adiposity in 5- to 7-year-old offspring in a large observational study.

DESIGN

Pregnant women (1612) were recruited to the Belfast center of the Hyperglycemia and Adverse Pregnancy Outcome study in a large tertiary maternity hospital at an average of 28 weeks' gestation. Maternal fasting total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, triglycerides, and high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol were estimated at 28 weeks' gestation. Offspring-mother pairs (819) were included in the current study, and adiposity was expressed as body mass index (BMI) z score (1990 British growth standard) and sum of skin-fold (SSF) thicknesses (triceps, subscapular, and suprailiac). Statistical significance was more rigorously defined as P < 0.01 to allow for multiple comparisons.

RESULTS

No linear relation was found between maternal lipids and offspring BMI z score or SSFs (P ≥ 0.01) using correlation analysis. With the use of logistic regression, there was no relation between maternal lipids and offspring adiposity controlled for birthweight z score, offspring age, offspring gender, smoking during pregnancy, offspring energy intake and physical activity, maternal BMI during pregnancy, and fasting glucose during pregnancy (P ≥ 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Maternal 28-week gestational fasting lipids are not associated with offspring BMI or subcutaneous adiposity at age 5 to 7 years.

Maternal vitamin D and markers of glycaemia during pregnancy in the Belfast centre of the Hyperglycaemia and Adverse Pregnancy Outcome study

AIMS

To measure total 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels in women in mid-pregnancy who participated in the Belfast centre of the Hyperglycaemia and Adverse Pregnancy Outcome (HAPO) observational study, and to investigate the associations between levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D and markers of gestational diabetes mellitus and lipid biomarkers.

METHODS

A total of 1585 pregnant women had serum samples available for measurement. Participants were recruited from the Royal Jubilee Maternity Hospital, Belfast, Northern Ireland, at 24-32 weeks' gestation, as part of the HAPO study. 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations were measured using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. Glucose, C-peptide and lipid levels were previously analysed in a central laboratory. Statistical analysis was performed.

RESULTS

The median (interquartile range) 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration during pregnancy was 38.6 (24.1-60.7) nmol/l, with 65.8% of women being vitamin D-deficient (≤50 nmol/l). In regression analysis, the association between maternal 25-hydroxyvitamin D and fasting plasma glucose levels approached significance [regression coefficient -0.017 (95% CI -0.034 to 0.001); P=0.06], and a significant positive association was observed between maternal 25-hydroxyvitamin D and β-cell function [1.013 (95% CI 1.001 to 1.024); P=0.031]. Maternal 25-hydroxyvitamin D level was positively associated with HDL [0.047 (95% CI 0.021 to 0.073) P≤ 0.001] and total cholesterol [0.085 (95% CI 0.002 to 0.167); P=0.044] in regression analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

These results indicate a high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency during pregnancy, which requires identification and treatment; however, only weak associations were observed between 25-hydroxyvitamin D level and markers of glucose and insulin metabolism. This would suggest that these are of doubtful clinical significance.

Trial to Encourage Adoption and Maintenance of a Mediterranean Diet (TEAM-MED): Protocol for a Randomised Feasibility Trial of a Peer Support Intervention for Dietary Behaviour Change in Adults at High Cardiovascular Disease Risk

Adoption of a Mediterranean diet (MD) reduces cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, interventions to achieve dietary behaviour change are typically resource intensive. Peer support offers a potentially low-cost approach to encourage dietary change. The primary objective of this randomised controlled trial is to explore the feasibility of peer support versus a previously tested dietetic-led intervention to encourage MD behaviour change, and to test recruitment strategies, retention and attrition in order to inform the design of a definitive trial. A total of 75 overweight adults at high CVD risk who do not follow a MD (Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS ≤ 3)) will be randomly assigned to either: a minimal intervention (written materials), a proven intervention (dietetic support, written materials and key MD foods), or a peer support intervention (group-based community programme delivered by lay peers) for 12 months. The primary end-point is change in MDS from baseline to 6 months (adoption of MD). Secondary end-points include: change in MDS from 6 to 12 months (maintenance of MD), effects on nutritional biomarkers and CVD risk factors, fidelity of implementation, acceptability and feasibility of the peer support intervention. This study will generate important data regarding the feasibility of peer support for ease of adoption of MD in an 'at risk' Northern European population. Data will be used to direct a larger scale trial, where the clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness of peer support will be tested.

Reducing variability in apparent operative inclination during total hip arthroplasty: findings of a randomised controlled trial

AIMS

To determine which of 3 methods of cup insertion most accurately achieved a target apparent operative inclination (AOI) of 35° ± 2.5°: (1) Freehand; (2) Modified Mechanical Alignment Guide (MAG); or (3) Digital Inclinometer assisted.

METHODS

Using a cementless cup via a posterior approach in lateral decubitus 270 participants were recruited, with 90 randomised to each method. The primary outcome was the unsigned deviation from target AOI. The digital inclinometer was used to measure AOI in all cases, though the surgeon remained blinded to the reading intraoperatively for both the Freehand and MAG methods.

RESULTS

Mean deviation from target AOI for the Freehand, Modified 35° MAG and Digital Inclinometer techniques was 2.9°, 1.8° and 1.3° respectively. When comparing mean deviation from target AOI, statistically significant differences between the Freehand / Inclinometer groups ( p < 0.001), the Freehand / Modified 35° MAG groups ( p < 0.001) and the Digital Inclinometer / Modified 35° MAG groups ( p < 0.023) were evident. The Digital Inclinometer technique enabled the surgeon to achieve a target AOI of 35° ± 2.5° in 88% of cases, compared to 71% of Modified 35° MAG cases and only 51% of Freehand cases.

DISCUSSION

The Digital Inclinometer and the Modified 35° MAG techniques were both more accurate than the Freehand technique, with the Digital Inclinometer technique proving most accurate overall. Radiographic inclination (RI) is also influenced by operative anteversion; however, the greatest source of error with respect to RI occurs when the pelvic sagittal plane is not horizontal at the time of acetabular component insertion. Clinical Trial Protocol number: NCT01831401.

Correction of pelvic adduction during total hip arthroplasty reduces variability in radiographic inclination: findings of a randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

The study aims were to identify the incidence of pelvic adduction during total hip arthroplasty (THA) in lateral decubitus and to determine, when aiming for 35° of apparent operative inclination (AOI), which of 3 operating table positions most accurately obtained a target radiographic inclination (RI) of 42°: (1) horizontal; (2) 7° head-down; (3) patient-specific position based on correction of pelvic adduction.

METHODS

With patients seated on a levelled theatre table, a ruler incorporating a spirit level was used to draw transverse pelvic lines (TPLs) on the skin overlying the pelvis and sacrum. Subsequently, when positioned in lateral decubitus these lines provided a measure of pelvic adduction. 270 participants were recruited, with 90 randomised to each group for operating table position. In all cases target AOI was 35°, aiming to achieve a target RI of 42°. The primary outcome measure was absolute (unsigned) deviation from the target RI of 42°.

RESULTS

266/270 patients demonstrated pelvic adduction (overall mean 4.4°, range 0- 9.2°). No patients demonstrated pelvic abduction. There were significant differences in RI between each of the 3 groups. The horizontal table group displayed the highest mean RI. The patient specific table position group achieved the smallest absolute deviation from target RI of 42°.

DISCUSSION

In lateral decubitus, unrecognised pelvic adduction is common and is an important contributor to unexpectedly high RI. The use of preoperative TPLs helps identify pelvic adduction and its subsequent correction reduces variability in RI. Clinical Trial Protocol number: NCT01831401.

Troponin and BNP are markers for subsequent non-ischaemic congestive heart failure: the Caerphilly Prospective Study (CaPS)

Objective

To examine the long-term predictive value of 28 biomarkers for subsequent non-ischaemic congestive heart failure (CHF) and separately for other cardiovascular outcomes (myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke).

Methods

The Caerphilly Prospective Study recruited 2171 men aged 55–69 years from the general population in 1989–1993; men were screened for evidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and followed for clinical cardiovascular events. Fasting blood samples were stored at −70°C until assayed for novel biomarkers in 2010–2013. A competing risks proportional hazards regression analysis was used to estimate subhazard ratios (SHRs) for each biomarker for each cardiovascular outcome.

Results

During follow-up (average 13 years), only new, initial events were evaluated in the whole cohort: 584 MIs, 313 strokes and 261 episodes of CHF (not associated with acute MI). In a subcohort of men who had no clinical history or evidence of CVD at baseline examination (n=1279) those in the top third of the distributions of troponin and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) showed a threefold increase in risk for subsequent CHF as a first event after adjustment for all conventional risk factors (SHRs 3.37, 95% CI 1.39 to 8.14 and 3.23, 95% CI 1.45 to 7.23), respectively, in contrast to moderate elevations in risk for acute MI (troponin SHR 1.63, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.41) and for stroke (BNP SHR 1.75 95% CI 1.06 to 2.88).

Conclusion

Troponin and BNP could be considered as potentially useful screening tools to detect subjects without prior CVD at increased risk of developing CHF in subsequent years in addition to having lesser roles for predicting subsequent MI (troponin) or stroke (BNP).

Mortality in type 1 diabetes diagnosed in childhood in Northern Ireland during 1989-2012: A population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate long-term mortality rates and causes of death in individuals diagnosed with type 1 diabetes before the age of 15 years during the period 1989-2012 or known to paediatric diabetes teams in 1989, in Northern Ireland.

METHODS

A cohort of 3129 patients from the Northern Ireland Childhood Diabetes Register was linked to death registrations and underlying causes, coded according to ICD-9 or ICD-10. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated as the ratio of observed to expected deaths by sex, attained age, time since diagnosis, calendar period, and cause of death.

RESULTS

Subjects were followed to December 31, 2012 giving 39 764 person-years of follow-up (median 12.1 years). In total, 59 subjects had died (1.5 per 1000 person-years) compared with 19.9 deaths expected, an SMR of 296 (95% confidence interval (CI) 229-382). Women had a significantly higher excess risk of mortality than men with SMRs of 535 (95% CI 361-764) and 203 (95% CI 136-291), respectively. Over half of the deaths (56%) were judged to be related or possibly related to diabetes with most of these due to acute (n = 24) or late (n = 6) complications.

CONCLUSIONS

Subjects with type 1 diabetes diagnosed less than 15 years of age had 3 times the mortality risk of the general population. Over half of the deaths were related to acute or chronic complications of diabetes.

A Role for Behavior in the Relationships Between Depression and Hostility and Cardiovascular Disease Incidence, Mortality, and All-Cause Mortality: the Prime Study

Background

Behavioral factors are important in disease incidence and mortality and may explain associations between mortality and various psychological traits.

Purpose

These analyses investigated the impact of behavioral factors on the associations between depression, hostility and cardiovascular disease(CVD) incidence, CVD mortality, and all-cause mortality.

Methods

Data from the PRIME Study (N = 6953 men) were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models, following adjustment for demographic and biological CVD risk factors, and other psychological traits, including social support.

Results

Following initial adjustment, both depression and hostility were significantly associated with both mortality outcomes (smallest SHR = 1.24, p < 0.001). Following adjustment for behavioral factors, all relationships were attenuated both when accounting for and not accounting for other psychological variables. Associations with all-cause mortality remained significant (smallest SHR = 1.14, p = 0.04). Of the behaviors included, the most significant contribution to outcomes was found for smoking, but a role was also found for fruit and vegetable intakes and high alcohol consumption.

Conclusions

These findings demonstrate well-known associations between depression, hostility, and mortality and suggest the potential importance of behaviors in explaining these relationships.

Circulating adipokines are associated with pre-eclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The incidence of pre-eclampsia, a multisystem disorder of pregnancy, is fourfold higher in type 1 diabetic than non-diabetic women; it is also increased in women with features of the metabolic syndrome and insulin resistance. In a prospective study of pregnant women with type 1 diabetes, we measured plasma levels of adipokines known to be associated with insulin resistance: leptin, fatty acid binding protein 4 (FABP4), adiponectin (total and high molecular weight [HMW]; also known as high molecular mass), retinol binding protein 4 (RBP4) and resistin and evaluated associations with the subsequent development of pre-eclampsia.

METHODS

From an established prospective cohort of pregnant type 1 diabetic women, we studied 23 who developed pre-eclampsia and 24 who remained normotensive; for reference values we included 19 healthy non-diabetic normotensive pregnant women. Plasma adipokines were measured (by ELISA) in stored samples from three study visits (Visit 1- Visit 3) at different gestational ages (mean ± SD): Visit 1, 12.4 ± 1.8 weeks; Visit 2, 21.7 ± 1.4 weeks; and Visit 3, 31.4 ± 1.5 weeks. All the women were free of microalbuminuria and hypertension at enrolment. All study visits preceded the clinical onset of pre-eclampsia.

RESULTS

In all groups, leptin, the ratio of leptin to total or HMW adiponectin, FABP4 concentration, ratio of FABP4 to total or HMW adiponectin and resistin level increased, while total and HMW adiponectin decreased, with gestational age. At Visit 1: (1) in diabetic women with vs without subsequent pre-eclampsia, leptin, ratio of leptin to total or HMW adiponectin, and ratio of FABP4 to total or HMW adiponectin, were increased (p < 0.05), while total adiponectin was decreased (p < 0.05); and (2) in normotensive diabetic vs non-diabetic women, total adiponectin was elevated (p < 0.05). At Visits 2 and 3: (1) the primary findings in the two diabetic groups persisted, and FABP4 also increased in women with subsequent pre-eclampsia (p < 0.05); and (2) there were no differences between the two normotensive groups. By logistic regression analyses after covariate adjustment (HbA_1c, insulin kg^-1 day^-1 and gestational age), the best predictive models for pre-eclampsia were as follows: Visit 1, doubling of leptin, OR 9.0 (p < 0.01); Visit 2, doubling of the leptin:total adiponectin ratio, OR 3.7 (p < 0.05); and Visit 3, doubling of FABP4 concentration, OR 25.1 (p < 0.01). The associations were independent of BMI.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

As early as the first trimester in type 1 diabetic women, adipokine profiles that suggest insulin resistance are associated with subsequent pre-eclampsia, possibly reflecting maternal characteristics that precede pregnancy. These associations persist in the second and third trimesters, and are independent of BMI. Insulin resistance may predispose women with type 1 diabetes to pre-eclampsia.

Barriers to adopting a Mediterranean diet in Northern European adults at high risk of developing cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

Strong evidence links the consumption of a Mediterranean diet (MD) with a reduced cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk; however, there is uncertainty as to whether non-Mediterranean regions will adopt this diet. The present qualitative research aimed to investigate attitudes towards a MD in individuals at high CVD risk in a Northern European population. This information is needed to inform development of MD interventions in non-Mediterranean high-risk populations.

METHODS

Focus groups (n = 12) were held with individuals at high CVD risk from Northern Europe (≥2 CVD risk factors, aged ≥50 years, no established CVD/type 2 diabetes). Attitudes to dietary change towards a MD were explored. Data were analysed using inductive thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Sixty-seven adults participated (60% female, mean age 64 years). There was some awareness of the term MD but limited knowledge of its composition. Barriers to general dietary change were evident, including perception of expense, concern over availability, expectation of time commitment, limited knowledge, lack of cooking skills, amount and conflicting nature of media information on diets, changing established eating habits and resistance to dietary change. Barriers specific to MD adoption were also identified, including perceived difficulty living in a colder climate, perceived impact on body weight, acceptability of a MD and cultural differences.

CONCLUSIONS

Knowledge of a MD was limited in this Northern European sample at high CVD risk. In addition to general barriers to dietary change, barriers specific to a MD were identified. These findings have implications for the development of interventions aiming to promote MD adoption in non-Mediterranean populations.

Effectiveness of physical activity interventions in achieving behaviour change maintenance in young and middle aged adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Physical activity (PA) interventions are generally effective in supporting short-term behaviour change, but increases are not always maintained. This review examined the effectiveness of PA interventions for behaviour change maintenance in young and middle-aged adults, and investigated which Behaviour Change Techniques (BCTs) and other intervention features were associated with maintenance.

METHODS

Six databases (Medline, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, CINAHL, Web of Science) were systematically searched. Eligibility criteria were controlled trials investigating the effectiveness of PA interventions with adult (mean age 18-64 years) non-clinical populations using validated measures of PA behaviour at baseline and ≥six months' post-baseline. Results were pooled in meta-analyses using standardised mean differences (SMD) at five time intervals (6-9, 9-15, 15-21, 21-24, >24 months). Moderator analyses investigated the influence of sample and intervention characteristics on PA maintenance at 6-9 months.

RESULTS

Sixty-two studies were included. PA interventions had a significant effect on behaviour maintenance 6-15 months post-baseline relative to controls. Interventions had a larger effect on maintenance at 6-9 months (SMD = 0.28; 95% CI: 0.20, 0.35; I² = 73%) compared to 9-15 months (SMD = 0.20; 95% CI: 0.13, 0.26; I² = 70%). Beyond 15 months, PA measurements were infrequent with little evidence supporting maintenance. Moderator analyses showed some BCTs and intervention settings moderated PA outcomes at 6-9 months. A multivariable meta-regression model showed interventions using the BCTs 'Prompt self-monitoring of behavioural outcome' (b = 1.46, p < 0.01) and 'Use of follow-up prompts' (b = 0.38, p < 0.01) demonstrated greater effectiveness at promoting PA maintenance at 6-9 months. Interventions implemented in primary care (versus community or workplace/university) settings (b = -0.13, p = 0.10) tended to demonstrate less effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

This review provides evidence of some effective BCTs for maintaining behaviour to 15 months. Greater consideration must be given to how future interventions encourage and measure maintenance of changes, and investigate broader psychological, social and environmental influences of PA behaviour.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION

PROSPERO 2015:CRD42015025462.

Impact of an educational DVD on anxiety and glycaemic control in women diagnosed with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM): A randomised controlled trial

AIMS

The diagnosis of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) during pregnancy can lead to anxiety. This study evaluated the impact of an innovative patient-centred educational DVD on anxiety and glycaemic control in women newly diagnosed with GDM.

METHODS

150 multi-ethnic women, aged 19-44years, from three UK hospitals were randomised to either usual care plus DVD (DVD group, n=77) or usual care alone (control group, n=73) at GDM diagnosis. Primary outcomes were anxiety (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory) and mean 1-h postprandial capillary self-monitored blood glucose for all meals, on day prior to follow-up.

RESULTS

No significant difference between the DVD and control group were reported, for anxiety (37.7±11.7 vs 36.2±10.9; mean difference after adjustment for covariates (95% CI) 2.5 (-0.8, 5.9) or for mean 1-h postprandial glucose for all meals (6.9±0.9 vs 7.0±1.2mmol/L; -0.2 (-0.5, 0.2). However, the DVD group had significantly lower postprandial breakfast glucose compared to the control group (6.8±1.2 vs 7.4±1.9mmol/L; -0.5 (-1.1, -<0.1; p=0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

The results in this trial did not highlight any differences between those who received the intervention and those who received usual care. It is possible that women already felt supported by their frequent attendance at specialist clinics for monitoring and advice. Healthcare professional and family support are key elements to empowering women with GDM and require further consideration in future interventions. Nonetheless, educational resources such as this will be beneficial to help support women given the current resource and time implications of the year on year rises in the incidence of gestational diabetes.

Effect of implementation of a preconception counselling resource for women with diabetes: A population based study

AIM

To evaluate the effect of regional implementation of a preconception counselling resource into routine diabetes care on pregnancy planning indicators.

METHODS

A preconception counselling DVD was distributed to women by diabetes care teams and general practices. Subsequently, in a prospective population-based study, pregnancy planning indicators were evaluated. The post-DVD cohort (n=135), including a viewed-DVD subgroup (n=58), were compared with an historical cohort (pre-DVD, n=114). Primary outcome was HbA1c at first diabetes-antenatal visit. Secondary outcomes included preconception folic acid consumption, planned pregnancy and HbA1c recorded in the 6 months preconception.

RESULTS

Mean first visit HbA1c was lower post-DVD vs. pre-DVD: 7.5% vs. 7.8% [58.4 vs. 61.8mmol/mol]; p=0.12), although not statistically significant. 53% and 20% of women with type 1 and 2 diabetes, respectively, viewed the DVD. The viewed-DVD subgroup were significantly more likely to have lower first visit HbA1c: 6.9% vs. 7.8% [52.1 vs. 61.8mmol/mol], P<0.001; planned pregnancy (88% vs. 59%, P<0.001); taken folic acid preconception (81% vs. 43%, P=0.001); and had HbA1c recorded preconception (88% vs. 53%, P<0.001) than the pre-DVD cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of a preconception counselling resource was associated with improved pregnancy planning indicators. Women with type 2 diabetes are difficult to reach. Greater awareness within primary care of the importance of preconception counselling among this population is needed.

The relationship between adipokines and the onset of type 2 diabetes in middle-aged men: The PRIME study

AIMS

Epidemiological evidence suggests that adipokines may be associated with the onset of type 2 diabetes, but the evidence to date is limited and inconclusive. This study examined the association between adiponectin and leptin and the subsequent diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in a UK population based cohort of non-diabetic middle-aged men.

METHODS

Baseline serum levels of leptin and adiponectin were measured in 1839 non-diabetic men aged 50-60years who were participating in the prospective population-based PRIME study. Over a mean follow-up of 14.7years, new cases of type 2 diabetes were determined from self-reported clinical information with subsequent validation by general practitioners.

RESULTS

151 Participants developed type 2 diabetes during follow-up. In Cox regression models adjusted for age, men in the top third of the leptin distribution were at increased risk (hazard ratio (HR) 4.27, 95% CI 2.67-6.83) and men in the top third of the adiponectin distribution at reduced risk (HR 0.24, 95% CI 0.14-0.42) relative to men in the bottom third. However, significance was lost for leptin after additional adjustment for BMI, waist to hip ratio, lifestyle factors and biological risk factors, including C-reactive protein (CRP). Further adjustment for HOMA-IR also resulted in loss of significance for adiponectin.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence that adipokines are associated with men's future type 2 diabetes risk but not independently of other risk factors.

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D and insulin resistance in people at high risk of cardiovascular disease: a euglycaemic hyperinsulinaemic clamp study

CONTEXT

In observational studies, low serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD) concentration is associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Increasing serum 25-OHD may have beneficial effects on insulin resistance or beta-cell function. Cross-sectional studies utilizing suboptimal methods for assessment of insulin sensitivity and serum 25-OHD concentration provide conflicting results.

OBJECTIVE

This study examined the relationship between serum 25-OHD concentration and insulin resistance in healthy overweight individuals at increased risk of cardiovascular disease, using optimal assessment techniques.

METHODS

A total of 92 subjects (mean age 56·0, SD 6·0 years), who were healthy but overweight (mean body mass index 30·9, SD 2·3 kg/m(2) ), underwent assessments of insulin sensitivity (two-step euglycaemic hyperinsulinaemic clamp, HOMA2-IR), beta-cell function (HOMA2%B), serum 25-OHD concentration and body composition (DEXA).

RESULTS

Mean total 25-OHD concentration was 32·2, range 21·8-46·6 nmol/l. No association was demonstrated between serum 25-OHD concentration and insulin resistance.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study using optimal assessment techniques to measure 25-OHD concentration, insulin sensitivity and body composition, there was no association between serum 25-OHD concentration and insulin resistance in healthy, overweight individuals at high risk of developing cardiovascular disease. This study suggests the documented inverse association between serum 25-OHD concentration and risk of type 2 DM is not mediated by a relationship between serum 25-OHD concentration and insulin resistance.

Troponin I and cardiovascular risk prediction in the general population: the BiomarCaRE consortium

Aims

Our aims were to evaluate the distribution of troponin I concentrations in population cohorts across Europe, to characterize the association with cardiovascular outcomes, to determine the predictive value beyond the variables used in the ESC SCORE, to test a potentially clinically relevant cut-off value, and to evaluate the improved eligibility for statin therapy based on elevated troponin I concentrations retrospectively.

Methods and results

Based on the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project, we analysed individual level data from 10 prospective population-based studies including 74 738 participants. We investigated the value of adding troponin I levels to conventional risk factors for prediction of cardiovascular disease by calculating measures of discrimination (C-index) and net reclassification improvement (NRI). We further tested the clinical implication of statin therapy based on troponin concentration in 12 956 individuals free of cardiovascular disease in the JUPITER study. Troponin I remained an independent predictor with a hazard ratio of 1.37 for cardiovascular mortality, 1.23 for cardiovascular disease, and 1.24 for total mortality. The addition of troponin I information to a prognostic model for cardiovascular death constructed of ESC SCORE variables increased the C-index discrimination measure by 0.007 and yielded an NRI of 0.048, whereas the addition to prognostic models for cardiovascular disease and total mortality led to lesser C-index discrimination and NRI increment. In individuals above 6 ng/L of troponin I, a concentration near the upper quintile in BiomarCaRE (5.9 ng/L) and JUPITER (5.8 ng/L), rosuvastatin therapy resulted in higher absolute risk reduction compared with individuals <6 ng/L of troponin I, whereas the relative risk reduction was similar.

Conclusion

In individuals free of cardiovascular disease, the addition of troponin I to variables of established risk score improves prediction of cardiovascular death and cardiovascular disease.

Increasing fruit and vegetable intake has no effect on retinal vessel caliber in adults at high risk of developing cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Retinal vessel abnormalities are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. To date, there are no trials investigating the effect of dietary factors on the retinal microvasculature. This study examined the dose response effect of fruit and vegetable (FV) intake on retinal vessel caliber in overweight adults at high CVD risk.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Following a 4 week washout period, participants were randomized to consume either 2 or 4 or 7 portions of FV daily for 12 weeks. Retinal vessel caliber was measured at baseline and post-intervention. A total of 62 participants completed the study. Self-reported FV intake indicated good compliance with the intervention, with serum concentrations of zeaxanthin and lutein increasing significantly across the groups in a dose-dependent manner (P for trend < 0.05). There were no significant changes in body composition, 24-h ambulatory blood pressure or fasting blood lipid profiles in response to the FV intervention. Increasing age was a significant determinant of wider retinal venules (P = 0.004) whereas baseline systolic blood pressure was a significant determinant of narrower retinal arterioles (P = 0.03). Overall, there was no evidence of any short-term dose-response effect of FV intake on retinal vessel caliber (CRAE (P = 0.92) or CRVE (P = 0.42)).

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated no effect of increasing FV intake on retinal vessel caliber in overweight adults at high risk of developing primary CVD.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT00874341.

Which biomarkers are predictive specifically for cardiovascular or for non-cardiovascular mortality in men? Evidence from the Caerphilly Prospective Study (CaPS)

OBJECTIVE

To examine a panel of 28 biomarkers for prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and non-CVD mortality in a population-based cohort of men.

METHODS

Starting in 1979, middle-aged men in Caerphilly underwent detailed medical examination. Subsequently 2171 men were re-examined during 1989-1993, and fasting blood samples obtained from 1911 men (88%). Fibrinogen, viscosity and white cell count (WCC), routine biochemistry tests and lipids were analysed using fresh samples. Stored aliquots were later analysed for novel biomarkers. Statistical analysis of CVD and non-CVD mortality follow-up used competing risk Cox regression models with biomarkers in thirds tested at the 1% significance level after covariate adjustment.

RESULTS

During an average of 15.4 years follow-up, troponin (subhazard ratio per third 1.71, 95% CI 1.46-1.99) and B-natriuretic peptide (BNP) (subhazard ratio per third 1.54, 95% CI 1.34-1.78) showed strong trends with CVD death but not with non-CVD death. WCC and fibrinogen showed similar weaker findings. Plasma viscosity, growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) were associated positively with both CVD death and non-CVD death while total cholesterol was associated positively with CVD death but negatively with non-CVD death. C-reactive protein (C-RP), alkaline phosphatase, gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), retinol binding protein 4 (RBP-4) and vitamin B6 were significantly associated only with non-CVD death, the last two negatively. Troponin, BNP and IL-6 showed evidence of diminishing associations with CVD mortality through follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Biomarkers for cardiac necrosis were strong, specific predictors of CVD mortality while many inflammatory markers were equally predictive of non-CVD mortality.

Seasonal variation in month of diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes registered in 23 European centers during 1989-2008: little short-term influence of sunshine hours or average temperature

BACKGROUND

The month of diagnosis in childhood type 1 diabetes shows seasonal variation.

OBJECTIVE

We describe the pattern and investigate if year-to-year irregularities are associated with meteorological factors using data from 50 000 children diagnosed under the age of 15 yr in 23 population-based European registries during 1989-2008.

METHODS

Tests for seasonal variation in monthly counts aggregated over the 20 yr period were performed. Time series regression was used to investigate if sunshine hour and average temperature data were predictive of the 240 monthly diagnosis counts after taking account of seasonality and long term trends.

RESULTS

Significant sinusoidal pattern was evident in all but two small centers with peaks in November to February and relative amplitudes ranging from ± 11 to ± 38% (median ± 17%). However, most centers showed significant departures from a sinusoidal pattern. Pooling results over centers, there was significant seasonal variation in each age-group at diagnosis, with least seasonal variation in those under 5 yr. Boys showed greater seasonal variation than girls, particularly those aged 10-14 yr. There were no differences in seasonal pattern between four 5-yr sub-periods. Departures from the sinusoidal trend in monthly diagnoses in the period were significantly associated with deviations from the norm in average temperature (0.8% reduction in diagnoses per 1 °C excess) but not with sunshine hours.

CONCLUSIONS

Seasonality was consistently apparent throughout the period in all age-groups and both sexes, but girls and the under 5 s showed less marked variation. Neither sunshine hour nor average temperature data contributed in any substantial way to explaining departures from the sinusoidal pattern.

The association between subgingival periodontal pathogens and systemic inflammation

AIM

To investigate associations between periodontal disease pathogens and levels of systemic inflammation measured by C-reactive protein (CRP).

METHODS

A representative sample of dentate 60-70-year-old men in Northern Ireland had a comprehensive periodontal examination. Men taking statins were excluded. Subgingival plaque samples were analysed by quantitative real time PCR to identify the presence of Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, Porphyromonas gingivalis, Treponema denticola and Tannerella forsythia. High-sensitivity CRP (mg/l) was measured from fasting blood samples. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed using log-transformed CRP concentration as the dependent variable, with the presence of each periodontal pathogen as predictor variables, with adjustment for various potential confounders.

RESULTS

A total of 518 men (mean age 63.6 SD 3.0 years) were included in the analysis. Multiple regression analysis showed that body mass index (p < 0.001), current smoking (p < 0.01), the detectable presence of P. gingivalis (p < 0.01) and hypertension (p = 0.01), were independently associated with an increased CRP. The detectable presence of P. gingivalis was associated with a 20% (95% confidence interval 4-35%) increase in CRP (mg/l) after adjustment for all other predictor variables.

CONCLUSION

In these 60-70-year-old dentate men, the presence of P. gingivalis in subgingival plaque was significantly associated with a raised level of C-reactive protein.

Untreated Mild Hyperglycemia During Pregnancy and Anthropometric Measures of Obesity in Offspring at Age 5-7 Years

OBJECTIVE

Obesity in the offspring of women with hyperglycemia during pregnancy has been reported, but the results are conflicting. This study examined the association of hyperglycemia during pregnancy and anthropometry in 5- to 7-year-old offspring whose mothers participated in the Hyperglycemia and Adverse Pregnancy Outcome (HAPO) Study at the Belfast Centre.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Women in the HAPO study underwent a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at approximately 28 weeks of gestation. Mothers and caregivers remained blinded to the results unless the fasting plasma glucose (FPG) concentration was >5.8 mmol/L or the 2-h plasma glucose (2hPG) concentration was >11.1 mmol/L. Offspring weight, height, and skinfold thicknesses (triceps, subscapular, and suprailiac) were measured at age 5-7 years. Overweight, obesity, and extreme obesity were defined as a BMI z score ≥85th, ≥95th, and ≥99th percentile, respectively, based on the 1990 British Growth Standard.

RESULTS

Belfast HAPO offspring (n = 1,320, 82%) aged 5-7 years attended for follow-up. With use of multiple regression, maternal FPG, 1h PG, and 2hPG did not show any relation to offspring BMI z score or offspring skinfold sum independent of maternal BMI at OGTT and offspring birth weight z score. This lack of association with maternal glycemia persisted with the offspring BMI z score expressed as ≥85th, ≥95th, or 99th percentile and the sum of skinfolds expressed as ≥90th percentile specific for sex. The initially significant relation between FPG and all offspring adiposity measures was explained by maternal BMI at the OGTT.

CONCLUSIONS

After adjustment for maternal BMI at the OGTT, higher maternal FPG concentration during pregnancy (short of diabetes) is no longer a risk factor for obesity, as reflected by BMI and the sum of skinfolds in offspring aged 5-7 years.

Evaluation of the Retinal Vasculature in Hypertension and Chronic Kidney Disease in an Elderly Population of Irish Nuns

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and hypertension are global public health problems associated with considerable morbidity, premature mortality and attendant healthcare costs. Previous studies have highlighted that non-invasive examination of the retinal microcirculation can detect microvascular pathology that is associated with systemic disorders of the circulatory system such as hypertension. We examined the associations between retinal vessel caliber (RVC) and fractal dimension (DF), with both hypertension and CKD in elderly Irish nuns.

METHODS

Data from 1233 participants in the cross-sectional observational Irish Nun Eye Study (INES) were assessed from digital photographs with a standardized protocol using computer-assisted software. Multivariate regression analyses were used to assess associations with hypertension and CKD, with adjustment for age, body mass index (BMI), refraction, fellow eye RVC, smoking, alcohol consumption, ischemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular accident (CVA), diabetes and medication use.

RESULTS

In total, 1122 (91%) participants (mean age: 76.3 [range: 56-100] years) had gradable retinal images of sufficient quality for blood vessel assessment. Hypertension was significantly associated with a narrower central retinal arteriolar equivalent (CRAE) in a fully adjusted analysis (P = 0.002; effect size = -2.16 μm; 95% confidence intervals [CI]: -3.51, -0.81 μm). No significant associations between other retinal vascular parameters and hypertension or between any retinal vascular parameters and CKD were found.

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals with hypertension have significantly narrower retinal arterioles which may afford an earlier opportunity for tailored prevention and treatment options to optimize the structure and function of the microvasculature, providing additional clinical utility. No significant associations between retinal vascular parameters and CKD were detected.

Excess mortality in Type 1 diabetes diagnosed in childhood and adolescence: a systematic review of population-based cohorts

AIMS

Systematic review of mortality in childhood-/adolescent-diagnosed Type 1 diabetes and examination of factors explaining the mortality variation between studies.

METHODS

Relevant studies were identified from systematic searches of MEDLINE and EMBASE. Observed and expected numbers of deaths were extracted, and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Negative binomial regression was used to investigate association between mortality and study/country characteristics.

RESULTS

Thirteen relevant publications with mortality data were identified describing 23 independent studies. SMRs varied markedly ranging from 0 to 854 (χ (2) = 70.68, df = 21, P < 0.0001). Significant associations were observed between SMR and mid-year of follow-up [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.95, 95 % CI 0.91-0.99 equivalent to a 5 % decrease per year], between SMR and infant mortality rate (IRR 1.07, 95 % CI 1.02-1.12, a 7 % increase for each death per 1,000 live births) and, after omitting an outlier, between SMR and health expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) (IRR 0.79, 95 % CI 0.68-0.93, a 21 % decrease for each one percent increase in GDP). No relationship was detected between SMR and a country's childhood diabetes incidence rate or GDP.

CONCLUSIONS

Excess mortality in childhood-/adolescent-diagnosed Type 1 diabetes is apparent across countries worldwide. Excesses were less marked in more recent studies and in countries with lower infant mortality and higher health expenditure.

Increasing Fruit and Vegetable Intake Has No Dose-Response Effect on Conventional Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Overweight Adults at High Risk of Developing Cardiovascular Disease

BACKGROUND

Improving diet and lifestyle is important for prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Observational evidence suggests that increasing fruit and vegetable (FV) consumption may lower CVD risk, largely through modulation of established risk factors, but intervention data are required to fully elucidate the mechanisms by which FVs exert benefits on vascular health.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to examine the dose-response effect of FV intake on cardiovascular risk factors in adults at high CVD risk.

METHODS

This was a randomized controlled parallel group study involving overweight adults (BMI: >27 and ≤35 kg/m(2)) with a habitually low FV intake (≤160 g/d) and a high total risk of developing CVD (estimated ≥20% over 10 y). After a 4-wk run-in period where FV intake was limited to <2 portions/d (<160 g/d), 92 eligible participants were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 groups: to consume either 2, 4, or 7 portions (equivalent to 160 g, 320 g, or 560 g, respectively) of FVs daily for 12 consecutive weeks. Fasting venous blood samples were collected at baseline (week 4) and post-intervention (week 16) for analysis of lipid fractions and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) concentrations. Compliance with the FV intervention was determined with use of self-reported FV intake and biomarkers of micronutrient status. Ambulatory blood pressure and body composition were also measured pre- and post-intervention.

RESULTS

A total of 89 participants completed the study and body composition remained stable throughout the intervention period. Despite good compliance with the intervention, no significant difference was found between the FV groups for change in measures of ambulatory blood pressure, plasma lipids, or hsCRP concentrations.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no evidence of a dose-response effect of FV intake on conventional CVD risk factors measured in overweight adults at high CVD risk. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00874341.

Retinopathy in type 1 diabetes mellitus: Major differences between rural and urban dwellers in northwest Ethiopia

AIM

To audit levels of diabetes-related eye disease in Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients in northwest Ethiopia. In particular to establish whether, despite identical clinical goals, major differences between the physically demanding life-style of rural subsistence farmers and the sedentary life-style of urban dwellers would influence the prevalence of diabetes-related eye complications.

METHODS

A robust infrastructure for chronic disease management that comprehensively includes all rural dwellers was a pre-requisite for the investigation. A total of 544 T1DM were examined, representing 80% of all T1DM patients under regular review at both the urban and rural clinics and representative of patient age and gender (62.1% male, 37.9% female) of T1DM patients from this region; all were supervised by the same clinical team. Eye examinations were performed for visual acuity, cataract and retinal changes (retinal photography). HbA1c levels and the presence or absence of hypertension were recorded.

RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS

Urban and rural groups had similar prevalences of severe visual impairment/blindness (7.0% urban, 5.2% rural) and cataract (7.3% urban, 7.1% rural). By contrast, urban dwellers had a significantly higher prevalence of retinopathy compared to rural patients, 16.1% and 5.0%, respectively (OR 2.9, p<0.02, after adjustment for duration, age, gender and hypertension). There was a 3-fold greater prevalence of hypertension in urban patients, whereas HbA1c levels were similar in the two groups. Since diabetic retinopathy is closely associated with microvascular disease and endothelial dysfunction, the possible influences of hypertension to increase and of sustained physical activity to reduce endothelial dysfunction are discussed.

Glycemic targets in the second and third trimester of pregnancy for women with type 1 diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To assess the relationship between second and third trimester glycemic control and adverse outcomes in pregnant women with type 1 diabetes, as uncertainty exists about optimum glycemic targets.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Pregnancy outcomes were assessed prospectively in 725 women with type 1 diabetes from the Diabetes and Pre-eclampsia Intervention Trial. HbA1c (A1C) values at 26 and 34 weeks' gestation were categorized into five groups, the lowest, <6.0% (42 mmol/mol), being the reference. Average pre- and postprandial results from an eight-point capillary glucose profile the previous day were categorized into five groups, the lowest (preprandial <5.0 mmol/L and postprandial <6.0 mmol/L) being the reference.

RESULTS

An A1C of 6.0-6.4% (42-47 mmol/mol) at 26 weeks' gestation was associated with a significantly increased risk of large for gestational age (LGA) (odds ratio 1.7 [95% CI 1.0-3.0]) and an A1C of 6.5-6.9% (48-52 mmol/mol) with a significantly increased risk of preterm delivery (odds ratio 2.5 [95% CI 1.3-4.8]), pre-eclampsia (4.3 [1.7-10.8]), need for a neonatal glucose infusion (2.9 [1.5-5.6]), and a composite adverse outcome (3.2 [1.3-8.0]). These risks increased progressively with increasing A1C. Results were similar at 34 weeks' gestation. Glucose data showed less consistent trends, although the risk of a composite adverse outcome increased with preprandial glucose levels between 6.0 and 6.9 mmol/L at 34 weeks (3.3 [1.3-8.0]).

CONCLUSIONS

LGA increased significantly with an A1C ≥6.0 (42 mmol/mol) at 26 and 34 weeks' gestation and with other adverse outcomes with an A1C ≥6.5% (48 mmol/mol). The data suggest that there is clinical utility in regular measurement of A1C during pregnancy.

Retinal vascular caliber, iris color, and age-related macular degeneration in the Irish Nun Eye Study

PURPOSE

To evaluate the relationship between retinal vascular caliber (RVC), iris color, and age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in elderly Irish nuns.

METHODS

Data from 1233 participants in the cross-sectional observational Irish Nun Eye Study were assessed from digital photographs with a standardized protocol using computer-assisted software. Macular images were graded according to the modified Wisconsin Age-related Maculopathy Grading System. Regression models were used to assess associations, adjusting for age, mean arterial blood pressure, body mass index, refraction, and fellow RVC.

RESULTS

In total, 1122 (91%) participants had gradable retinal images of sufficient quality for vessel assessment (mean age: 76.3 years [range, 56-100 years]). In an unadjusted analysis, we found some support for a previous finding that individuals with blue iris color had narrower retinal venules compared to those with brown iris color (P < 0.05), but this was no longer significant after adjustment. Age-related macular degeneration status was categorized as no AMD, any AMD, and late AMD only. Individuals with any AMD (early or late AMD) had significantly narrower arterioles and venules compared to those with no AMD in an unadjusted analysis, but this was no longer significant after adjustment. A nonsignificant reduced risk of any AMD or late AMD only was observed in association with brown compared to blue iris color, in both unadjusted and adjusted analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Retinal vascular caliber was not significantly associated with iris color or early/late AMD after adjustment for confounders. A lower but nonsignificant AMD risk was observed in those with brown compared to blue iris color.

Factors influencing survival after kidney transplant failure

Background

The failure of a kidney transplant is now a common reason for initiation of dialysis therapy. Kidney transplant recipients commencing dialysis have greater morbidity and mortality than transplant-naïve, incident dialysis patients. This study aimed to identify variables associated with survival after graft failure.

Methods

All recipients of first, deceased donor kidney transplants performed in Northern Ireland between 1986 and 2005 who had a functioning graft at 12 months were included (n = 585). Clinical and blood-derived variables (age, gender, primary renal disease, diabetic status, smoking status, human leukocyte antigen (HLA) mismatch, acute rejection episodes, immunosuppression, cardiovascular disease, graft survival, haemoglobin, albumin, phosphate, C reactive protein, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), rate of eGFR decline, dialysis modality, and access) were collected prospectively and investigated for association with re-transplantation and survival. The association between re-transplantation and survival was explored by modelling re-transplantation as a time-dependent covariate.

Results

Median follow-up time was 12.1 years. Recipients with a failing graft (158/585) demonstrated rapid loss of eGFR prior to graft failure, reducing the time available to plan for alternative renal replacement therapy. Median survival after graft failure was 3.0 years. In multivariate analysis, age and re-transplantation were associated with survival after graft failure. Re-transplantation was associated with an 88% reduction in mortality.

Conclusions

Optimal management of kidney transplant recipients with failing grafts requires early recognition of declining function and proactive preparation for re-transplantation given the substantial survival benefit this confers. The survival benefit associated with re-transplantation persists after prolonged exposure to immunosuppressive therapy.