The equitable impact of sugary drink taxation structures on sugary drink consumption among Canadians: a modelling study using the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition

OBJECTIVE

Estimate the impact of 20 % flat-rate and tiered sugary drink tax structures on the consumption of sugary drinks, sugar-sweetened beverages and 100 % juice by age, sex and socio-economic position.

DESIGN

We modelled the impact of price changes - for each tax structure - on the demand for sugary drinks by applying own- and cross-price elasticities to self-report sugary drink consumption measured using single-day 24-h dietary recalls from the cross-sectional, nationally representative 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition. For both 20 % flat-rate and tiered sugary drink tax scenarios, we used linear regression to estimate differences in mean energy intake and proportion of energy intake from sugary drinks by age, sex, education, food security and income.

SETTING

Canada.

PARTICIPANTS

19 742 respondents aged 2 and over.

RESULTS

In the 20 % flat-rate scenario, we estimated mean energy intake and proportion of daily energy intake from sugary drinks on a given day would be reduced by 29 kcal/d (95 % UI: 18, 41) and 1·3 % (95 % UI: 0·8, 1·8), respectively. Similarly, in the tiered tax scenario, additional small, but meaningful reductions were estimated in mean energy intake (40 kcal/d, 95 % UI: 24, 55) and proportion of daily energy intake (1·8 %, 95 % UI: 1·1, 2·5). Both tax structures reduced, but did not eliminate, inequities in mean energy intake from sugary drinks despite larger consumption reductions in children/adolescents, males and individuals with lower education, food security and income.

CONCLUSIONS

Sugary drink taxation, including the additional benefit of taxing 100 % juice, could reduce overall and inequities in mean energy intake from sugary drinks in Canada.

The Impacts of Selling Alcohol in Grocery Stores in Ontario, Canada: A Before-After Study

OBJECTIVE

From 2015 to 2019, the Government of Ontario expanded privatized sales of alcohol, licensing 450 grocery stores to sell beer, cider, and wine. The impacts of a nearby grocery store gaining an alcohol license on adults' alcohol use in Ontario are examined, including whether impacts differed by gender.

METHOD

Data from 2015-2019 Canadian Community Health Survey participants in Ontario (age ≥ 20 years), living within 1,000 m and 1,500 m of grocery stores that gained a license to sell alcohol and propensity-matched controls were included (1,000 m n = 14,052, 1,500 m n = 30,486). Alcohol use outcomes included past-7-day number of standard drinks consumed, near-daily drinking (≥4 days/week), and heavy drinking (5+ drinks in men/4+ in women, at least once/month). Gender-specific difference-in-differences (DiD) analyses compared changes in alcohol use before and after intervention in intervention and control populations.

RESULTS

Decreases in past-7-day drinks, near-daily drinking, and heavy drinking were observed after intervention in both intervention and control populations. At the 1,000 m level, adjusted DiD analyses showed past-7-day drinking in women (risk ratio = 1.21, 95% CI [0.88, 1.60]) and heavy drinking in men (odds ratio = 1.38, 95% CI [0.92, 2.08]) had effect sizes above 1, a relative increase over controls, although confidence intervals crossed 1. Findings did not indicate significant differences in alcohol use in intervention relative to controls for other alcohol use measures and at 1,500 m.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest no association between a partial alcohol deregulation initiative in Ontario and alcohol use from 2015 to 2019. It is important to monitor the impacts on alcohol use over time as further alcohol deregulation plans in Ontario and other jurisdictions are considered.

Erratum: Measurement of the 2νββ Decay Half-Life of ^{130}Te with CUORE [Phys. Rev. Lett. 126, 171801 (2021)]

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.126.171801.

[Association between hair trace element and all-cause death in elderly people in Hainan]

Objective: To explore the association between hair trace element and all-cause death in the elderly in Hainan Province. Methods: The subjects of the study were elderly people from China Hainan Centenarian Cohort Study, a total of 163 elderly were included. The association between hair trace element level and all-cause death was analyzed by using Cox proportional risk regression model. Results: After fully adjusting the covariates, the multiple Cox proportional hazards regression analyses showed that selenium (Se), manganese (Mn), strontium (Sr) concentrations in hair were significantly associated with all-cause mortality, the hazard ratio (HR) were 0.72 (95%CI: 0.54-0.98, P=0.035), 1.50 (95%CI: 1.07-2.11, P=0.020) and 0.54 (95%CI: 0.37-0.79, P=0.001), respectively. Subgroup and cross analysis showed that hair copper (Cu) were significant association with death in the people with anemia, the HR were 1.81 (95%CI: 1.13-2.88, P=0.013). And, hair Mn interacted with anemia, the HR was 0.46 (95%CI: 0.22-0.94, P=0.033). Conclusions: Se, Mn and Sr concentrations in hair were associated with the elevated risk for all-cause death in the elderly in Hainan. Se, Mn and Sr concentrations in hair can be used as a reference index for the prediction of the death risk of long-lived elderly in community, suggesting that the daily diet of elderly people are rich and diverse, in order to maintain normal and balanced trace element content in the body.

New Direct Limit on Neutrinoless Double Beta Decay Half-Life of ^{128}Te with CUORE

The Cryogenic Underground Observatory for Rare Events (CUORE) at Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso of INFN in Italy is an experiment searching for neutrinoless double beta (0νββ) decay. Its main goal is to investigate this decay in ^{130}Te, but its ton-scale mass and low background make CUORE sensitive to other rare processes as well. In this Letter, we present our first results on the search for 0νββ decay of ^{128}Te, the Te isotope with the second highest natural isotopic abundance. We find no evidence for this decay, and using a Bayesian analysis we set a lower limit on the ^{128}Te 0νββ decay half-life of T_{1/2}>3.6×10^{24}  yr (90% CI). This represents the most stringent limit on the half-life of this isotope, improving by over a factor of 30 the previous direct search results, and exceeding those from geochemical experiments for the first time.

Mortality Associated with Ambient PM2.5 Exposure in India: Results from the Million Death Study

BACKGROUND

Studies on the extent to which long-term exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM) with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5μm (PM2.5) contributes to adult mortality in India are few, despite over 99% of Indians being exposed to levels that the World Health Organization (WHO) considers unsafe.

OBJECTIVE

We conducted a retrospective cohort study within the Million Death Study (MDS) to provide the first-ever quantification of national mortality from exposure to PM2.5 in India from 1999 to 2014.

METHODS

We calculated relative risks (RRs) by linking a total of ten 3-y intervals of satellite-based estimated PM2.5 exposure to deaths 3 to 5 y later in over 7,400 small villages or urban blocks covering a total population of 6.8 million. We applied using a model-based geostatistical model, adjusted for individual age, sex, and year of death; smoking prevalence, rural/urban residency, area-level female illiteracy, languages, and spatial clustering and unit-level variation.

RESULTS

PM2.5 exposure levels increased from 1999 to 2014, particularly in central and eastern India. Among 212,573 deaths at ages 15-69 y, after spatial adjustment, we found a significant RR of 1.09 [95% credible interval (CI): 1.04, 1.14] for stroke deaths per 10-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure, but no significant excess for deaths from chronic respiratory disease and ischemic heart disease (IHD), all nonaccidental causes, and total mortality (after excluding stroke). Spatial adjustment attenuated the RRs for chronic respiratory disease and IHD but raised those for stroke. The RRs were consistent in various sensitivity analyses with spatial adjustment, including stratifying by levels of solid fuel exposure, by sex, and by age group, addition of climatic variables, and in supplementary case-control analyses using injury deaths as controls.

DISCUSSION

Direct epidemiological measurements, despite inherent limitations, yielded associations between mortality and long-term PM2.5 inconsistent with those reported in earlier models used by the WHO to derive estimates of PM2.5 mortality in India. The modest RRs in our study are consistent with near or null mortality effects. They suggest suitable caution in estimating deaths from PM2.5 exposure based on MDS results and even more caution in extrapolating model-based associations of risk derived mostly from high-income countries to India. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9538.

Spatio-temporal modelling of malaria mortality in India from 2004 to 2013 from the Million Death Study

BACKGROUND

India has a substantial burden of malaria, concentrated in specific areas and population groups. Spatio-temporal modelling of deaths due to malaria in India is a critical tool for identifying high-risk groups for effective resource allocation and disease control policy-making, and subsequently for the country's progress towards United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.

METHODS

In this study, a spatio-temporal model with the objective of understanding the spatial distribution of malaria mortality rates and the rate of temporal decline, across the country, has been constructed. A spatio-temporal "random slope" model was used, with malaria risk depending on a spatial relative risk surface and a linear time effect with a spatially-varying coefficient. The models were adjusted for urban/rural status (residence of the deceased) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), using 2004-13 data from the Million Death Study (MDS) (the most recent data available), with nationwide geographic coverage. Previous studies based on MDS had focused only on aggregated analyses.

RESULTS

The rural population had twice the risk of death due to malaria compared to the urban population. Malaria mortality in some of the highest-risk regions, namely the states of Odisha and Jharkhand, are declining faster than other areas; however, the rate of decline was not uniformly correlated with the level of risk. The overall decline was faster after 2010.

CONCLUSION

The results suggest a need for increased attention in high-risk rural populations, which already face challenges like inadequate infrastructure, inaccessibility to health care facilities, awareness, and education around malaria mortality and prevalence. It also points to the urgent need to restart the MDS to document changes since 2013, to develop appropriate malaria control measures.

COVID mortality in India: National survey data and health facility deaths

India’s national COVID death totals remain undetermined. Using an independent nationally representative survey of 0.14 million (M) adults, we compared COVID mortality during the 2020 and 2021 viral waves to expected all-cause mortality. COVID constituted 29% (95%CI 28-31%) of deaths from June 2020-July 2021, corresponding to 3.2M (3.1-3.4) deaths, of which 2.7M (2.6-2.9) occurred in April-July 2021 (when COVID doubled all-cause mortality). A sub-survey of 57,000 adults showed similar temporal increases in mortality with COVID and non-COVID deaths peaking similarly. Two government data sources found that, when compared to pre-pandemic periods, all-cause mortality was 27% (23-32%) higher in 0.2M health facilities and 26% (21-31%) higher in civil registration deaths in ten states; both increases occurred mostly in 2021. The analyses find that India’s cumulative COVID deaths by September 2021 were 6-7 times higher than reported officially.

Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Seropositivity During the First and Second Viral Waves in 2020 and 2021 Among Canadian Adults

IMPORTANCE

The incidence of infection during SARS-CoV-2 viral waves, the factors associated with infection, and the durability of antibody responses to infection among Canadian adults remain undocumented.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first 2 viral waves in Canada by measuring seropositivity among adults.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The Action to Beat Coronavirus study conducted 2 rounds of an online survey about COVID-19 experience and analyzed immunoglobulin G levels based on participant-collected dried blood spots (DBS) to assess the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first and second viral waves in Canada. A sample of 19 994 Canadian adults (aged ≥18 years) was recruited from established members of the Angus Reid Forum, a public polling organization. The study comprised 2 phases (phase 1 from May 1 to September 30, 2020, and phase 2 from December 1, 2020, to March 31, 2021) that generally corresponded to the first (April 1 to July 31, 2020) and second (October 1, 2020, to March 1, 2021) viral waves.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G seropositivity (using a chemiluminescence assay) by major geographic and demographic variables and correlation with COVID-19 symptom reporting.

RESULTS

Among 19 994 adults who completed the online questionnaire in phase 1, the mean (SD) age was 50.9 (15.4) years, and 10 522 participants (51.9%) were female; 2948 participants (14.5%) had self-identified racial and ethnic minority group status, and 1578 participants (8.2%) were self-identified Indigenous Canadians. Among participants in phase 1, 8967 had DBS testing. In phase 2, 14 621 adults completed online questionnaires, and 7102 of those had DBS testing. Of 19 994 adults who completed the online survey in phase 1, fewer had an educational level of some college or less (4747 individuals [33.1%]) compared with the general population in Canada (45.0%). Survey respondents were otherwise representative of the general population, including in prevalence of known risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. The cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among unvaccinated adults increased from 1.9% in phase 1 to 6.5% in phase 2. The seropositivity pattern was demographically and geographically heterogeneous during phase 1 but more homogeneous by phase 2 (with a cumulative incidence ranging from 6.4% to 7.0% in most regions). The exception was the Atlantic region, in which cumulative incidence reached only 3.3% (odds ratio [OR] vs Ontario, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.21-1.02). A total of 47 of 188 adults (25.3%) reporting COVID-19 symptoms during phase 2 were seropositive, and the OR of seropositivity for COVID-19 symptoms was 6.15 (95% CI, 2.02-18.69). In phase 2, 94 of 444 seropositive adults (22.2%) reported having no symptoms. Of 134 seropositive adults in phase 1 who were retested in phase 2, 111 individuals (81.8%) remained seropositive. Participants who had a history of diabetes (OR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.38-0.90) had lower odds of having detectable antibodies in phase 2.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The Action to Beat Coronavirus study found that the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Canada was modest until March 2021, and this incidence was lower than the levels of population immunity required to substantially reduce transmission of the virus. Ongoing vaccination efforts remain central to reducing viral transmission and mortality. Assessment of future infection-induced and vaccine-induced immunity is practicable through the use of serial online surveys and participant-collected DBS.

Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Seropositivity During the First and Second Viral Waves in 2020 and 2021 Among Canadian Adults

IMPORTANCE

The incidence of infection during SARS-CoV-2 viral waves, the factors associated with infection, and the durability of antibody responses to infection among Canadian adults remain undocumented.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first 2 viral waves in Canada by measuring seropositivity among adults.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The Action to Beat Coronavirus study conducted 2 rounds of an online survey about COVID-19 experience and analyzed immunoglobulin G levels based on participant-collected dried blood spots (DBS) to assess the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first and second viral waves in Canada. A sample of 19 994 Canadian adults (aged ≥18 years) was recruited from established members of the Angus Reid Forum, a public polling organization. The study comprised 2 phases (phase 1 from May 1 to September 30, 2020, and phase 2 from December 1, 2020, to March 31, 2021) that generally corresponded to the first (April 1 to July 31, 2020) and second (October 1, 2020, to March 1, 2021) viral waves.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G seropositivity (using a chemiluminescence assay) by major geographic and demographic variables and correlation with COVID-19 symptom reporting.

RESULTS

Among 19 994 adults who completed the online questionnaire in phase 1, the mean (SD) age was 50.9 (15.4) years, and 10 522 participants (51.9%) were female; 2948 participants (14.5%) had self-identified racial and ethnic minority group status, and 1578 participants (8.2%) were self-identified Indigenous Canadians. Among participants in phase 1, 8967 had DBS testing. In phase 2, 14 621 adults completed online questionnaires, and 7102 of those had DBS testing. Of 19 994 adults who completed the online survey in phase 1, fewer had an educational level of some college or less (4747 individuals [33.1%]) compared with the general population in Canada (45.0%). Survey respondents were otherwise representative of the general population, including in prevalence of known risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. The cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among unvaccinated adults increased from 1.9% in phase 1 to 6.5% in phase 2. The seropositivity pattern was demographically and geographically heterogeneous during phase 1 but more homogeneous by phase 2 (with a cumulative incidence ranging from 6.4% to 7.0% in most regions). The exception was the Atlantic region, in which cumulative incidence reached only 3.3% (odds ratio [OR] vs Ontario, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.21-1.02). A total of 47 of 188 adults (25.3%) reporting COVID-19 symptoms during phase 2 were seropositive, and the OR of seropositivity for COVID-19 symptoms was 6.15 (95% CI, 2.02-18.69). In phase 2, 94 of 444 seropositive adults (22.2%) reported having no symptoms. Of 134 seropositive adults in phase 1 who were retested in phase 2, 111 individuals (81.8%) remained seropositive. Participants who had a history of diabetes (OR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.38-0.90) had lower odds of having detectable antibodies in phase 2.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The Action to Beat Coronavirus study found that the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Canada was modest until March 2021, and this incidence was lower than the levels of population immunity required to substantially reduce transmission of the virus. Ongoing vaccination efforts remain central to reducing viral transmission and mortality. Assessment of future infection-induced and vaccine-induced immunity is practicable through the use of serial online surveys and participant-collected DBS.

Child, maternal, and adult mortality in Sierra Leone: nationally representative mortality survey 2018-20

BACKGROUND

Sierra Leone's child and maternal mortality rates are among the highest in the world. However, little is known about the causes of premature mortality in the country. To rectify this, the Ministry of Health and Sanitation of Sierra Leone launched the Sierra Leone Sample Registration System (SL-SRS) of births and deaths. Here, we report cause-specific mortality from the first SL-SRS round, representing deaths from 2018 to 2020.

METHODS

The Countrywide Mortality Surveillance for Action platform established the SL-SRS, which involved conducting electronic verbal autopsies in 678 randomly selected villages and urban blocks throughout the country. 61 surveyors, in teams of four or five, enrolled people and ascertained deaths of individuals younger than 70 years in 2019-20, capturing verbal autopsies on deaths from 2018 to 2020. Centrally, two trained physicians independently assigned causes of death according to the International Classification of Diseases (tenth edition). SL-SRS death proportions were applied to 5-year mortality averages from the UN World Population Prospects (2019) to derive cause-specific death totals and risks of death nationally and in four Sierra Leone regions, with comparisons made with the Western region where Freetown, the capital, is located. We compared SL-SRS results with the cause-specific mortality estimates for Sierra Leone in the 2019 WHO Global Health Estimates.

FINDINGS

Between Sept 1, 2019, and Dec 15, 2020, we enrolled 343 000 people and ascertained 8374 deaths of individuals younger than 70 years. Malaria was the leading cause of death in children and adults, nationally and in each region, representing 22% of deaths under age 70 years in 2020. Other infectious diseases accounted for an additional 16% of deaths. Overall maternal mortality ratio was 510 deaths per 100 000 livebirths (95% CI 483-538), and neonatal mortality rate was 31·1 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% CI 30·4-31·8), both among the highest rates in the world. Haemorrhage was the major cause of maternal mortality and birth asphyxia or trauma was the major cause of neonatal mortality. Excess deaths were not detected in the months of 2020 corresponding to the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Half of the deaths occurred in rural areas and at home. If the Northern, Eastern, and Southern regions of Sierra Leone had the lower death rates observed in the Western region, about 20 000 deaths (just over a quarter of national total deaths in people younger than 70 years) would have been avoided. WHO model-based data vastly underestimated malaria deaths and some specific causes of injury deaths, and substantially overestimated maternal mortality.

INTERPRETATION

Over 60% of individuals in Sierra Leone die prematurely, before age 70 years, most from preventable or treatable causes. Nationally representative mortality surveys such as the SL-SRS are of high value in providing reliable cause-of-death information to set public health priorities and target interventions in low-income countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Queen Elizabeth Scholarship Program.

Trends in maternal mortality in India over two decades in nationally representative surveys

OBJECTIVE

To assess national and regional trends and causes-specific distribution of maternal mortality in India.

DESIGN

Nationally representative cross-sectional surveys.

SETTING

All of India from 1997 to 2020.

SAMPLE

About 10 000 maternal deaths among 4.3 million live births over two decades.

METHODS

We analysed trends in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) from 1997 through 2020, estimated absolute maternal deaths and examined the causes of maternal death using nationally representative data sources. We partitioned female deaths (aged 15-49 years) and live birth totals, based on the 2001-2014 Million Death Study to United Nations (UN) demographic totals for the country.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Maternal mortality burden and distribution of causes.

RESULTS

The MMR declined in India by about 70% from 398/100 000 live births (95% CI 378-417) in 1997-98 to 99/100 000 (90-108) in 2020. About 1.30 million (95% CI 1.26-1.35 million) maternal deaths occurred between 1997 and 2020, with about 23 800 (95% CI 21 700-26 000) in 2020, with most occurring in poorer states (63%) and among women aged 20-29 years (58%). The MMRs for Assam (215), Uttar Pradesh/Uttarakhand (192) and Madhya Pradesh/Chhattisgarh (170) were highest, surpassing India's 2016-2018 estimate of 113 (95% CI 103-123). After adjustment for education and other variables, the risks of maternal death were highest in rural and tribal areas of north-eastern and northern states. The leading causes of maternal death were obstetric haemorrhage (47%; higher in poorer states), pregnancy-related infection (12%) and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (7%).

CONCLUSIONS

India could achieve the UN 2030 MMR goals if the average rate of reduction is maintained. However, without further intervention, the poorer states will not.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

We estimated that 1.3 million Indian women died from maternal causes over the last two decades. Although maternal mortality rates have fallen by 70% overall, the poorer states lag behind.

Measurement of the 2νββ Decay Half-Life of ^{130}Te with CUORE

We measured two-neutrino double beta decay of ^{130}Te using an exposure of 300.7 kg yr accumulated with the CUORE detector. Using a Bayesian analysis to fit simulated spectra to experimental data, it was possible to disentangle all the major background sources and precisely measure the two-neutrino contribution. The half-life is in agreement with past measurements with a strongly reduced uncertainty: T_{1/2}^{2ν}=7.71_{-0.06}^{+0.08}(stat)_{-0.15}^{+0.12}(syst)×10^{20}  yr. This measurement is the most precise determination of the ^{130}Te 2νββ decay half-life to date.

Trends in snakebite deaths in India from 2000 to 2019 in a nationally representative mortality study

The World Health Organization call to halve global snakebite deaths by 2030 will require substantial progress in India. We analyzed 2833 snakebite deaths from 611,483 verbal autopsies in the nationally representative Indian Million Death Study from 2001 to 2014, and conducted a systematic literature review from 2000 to 2019 covering 87,590 snakebites. We estimate that India had 1.2 million snakebite deaths (average 58,000/year) from 2000 to 2019. Nearly half occurred at ages 30-69 years and over a quarter in children < 15 years. Most occurred at home in the rural areas. About 70% occurred in eight higher burden states and half during the rainy season and at low altitude. The risk of an Indian dying from snakebite before age 70 is about 1 in 250, but notably higher in some areas. More crudely, we estimate 1.11-1.77 million bites in 2015, of which 70% showed symptoms of envenomation. Prevention and treatment strategies might substantially reduce snakebite mortality in India.

[Emerging of Japanese encephalitis virus and Getah virus from specimen of mosquitoes in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region]

Objective: To investigate the types and distribution of blood-sucking insects and arboviruses in Inner Mongolia autonomous region, and provide basic data for the prevention of arbovirus transmitted disease. Methods: Blood-sucking insects were collected by lamp trapping method in nature. Mosquito samples were classified according to morphologic characteristics and then stored at liquid nitrogen. Viruses were isolated in cell culture and characterized, using molecular biological methods. Results: A total of 24 240 mosquitoes and 17 110 aphids were collected from 2 sites of 5 counties (Flags) in Inner Mongolia in 2014 and during 2017-2018. Among them, Japanese encephalitis virus gene was detected in Culex pipiens pallens, and 4 virus strains isolates which could be stably passaged. The isolates were identified as Getah virus and densonucleosis virus by molecular biology identification. Phylogenetic analysis on the E2 gene of the Getah virus (NMDK1813-1) showed that it belonged to the same evolutionary branch of the Gansu isolates (GS10-2) and having six common amino acid variation sites. Conclusions: The emergence of Japanese encephalitis virus and Getah virus from specimen of mosquitoes in Inner Mongolia indicated the new challenges on the prevention and control of arbovirus and related diseases. The results pf this study provided basic data for the prevention and control stretagies of arbovirus transmitted diseases in Inner Mongolia.

Seasonal variation and etiologic inferences of childhood pneumonia and diarrhea mortality in India

Control of pneumonia and diarrhea mortality in India requires understanding of their etiologies. We combined time series analysis of seasonality, climate region, and clinical syndromes from 243,000 verbal autopsies in the nationally representative Million Death Study. Pneumonia mortality at 1 month-14 years was greatest in January (Rate ratio (RR) 1.66, 99% CI 1.51-1.82; versus the April minimum). Higher RRs at 1-11 months suggested respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) etiology. India's humid subtropical region experienced a unique summer pneumonia mortality. Diarrhea mortality peaked in July (RR 1.66, 1.48-1.85) and January (RR 1.37, 1.23-1.48), while deaths with fever and bloody diarrhea (indicating enteroinvasive bacterial etiology) showed little seasonality. Combining mortality at ages 1-59 months with prevalence surveys, we estimate 40,600 pneumonia deaths from Streptococcus pneumoniae, 20,700 from RSV, 12,600 from influenza, and 7200 from Haemophilus influenzae type b and 24,700 diarrheal deaths from rotavirus occurred in 2015. Careful mortality studies can elucidate etiologies and inform vaccine introduction.

[Mosquitoes, midges and related arboviruses in southeast Sichuan province]

Objective: To investigate the distribution patterns of mosquitoes, midges and related arboviruses in Sichuan province. Methods: Blood-sucking insects were collected from houses and pens, using the ultraviolet lights. Mosquito samples were classified according to morphologic characteristics and then stored at liquid nitrogen. All samples were incubated with BHK-21 and C6/36 cells for virus isolation and then detected for their viral genes. Sequences of the virus were identified and analyzed by molecular biological software, such as BioEdit 7.0.5.3, MEGA 6.0. Results: In total, 17 019 mosquitoes from 3 genera and 4 species and 12 700 midges were collected from the southeast regions of Sichuan province in 2016 and 2017. Among them, 79.4% (13 519/17 019) belonged to Culex tritaeniorhynchus with 11.1% (1 897/17 019) as Armigeres subalbatus, 5.5% (930/17 019) were Anopheles sinensis and 4.0% (673/17 019) were Anopheles sinensis 3 virus strains that isolated from Culex tritaeniorhynchus were identified as typeⅠ Japanese encephalitis virus. Seven pools of mosquitoes isolated from Hejiang county were identified Japanese encephalitis virus gene positive through PCR amplification. With 4 pool midges were detected positive for Akabane virus through PCR gene amplification while midges samples didn't have virus isolates. Conclusions: Culex tritaeniorhynchus appeared the predominant species in the southeast regions of Sichuan. Japanese encephalitis virus transmitted by mosquitoes and Akabane virus by midges were prevalent in southeast Sichuan province.

Mortality attributable to hot and cold ambient temperatures in India: a nationally representative case-crossover study

BACKGROUND

Most of the epidemiological studies that have examined the detrimental effects of ambient hot and cold temperatures on human health have been conducted in high-income countries. In India, the limited evidence on temperature and health risks has focused mostly on the effects of heat waves and has mostly been from small scale studies. Here, we quantify heat and cold effects on mortality in India using a nationally representative study of the causes of death and daily temperature data for 2001-2013.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We applied distributed-lag nonlinear models with case-crossover models to assess the effects of heat and cold on all medical causes of death for all ages from birth (n = 411,613) as well as on stroke (n = 19,753), ischaemic heart disease (IHD) (n = 40,003), and respiratory diseases (n = 23,595) among adults aged 30-69. We calculated the attributable risk fractions by mortality cause for extremely cold (0.4 to 13.8°C), moderately cold (13.8°C to cause-specific minimum mortality temperatures), moderately hot (cause-specific minimum mortality temperatures to 34.2°C), and extremely hot temperatures (34.2 to 39.7°C). We further calculated the temperature-attributable deaths using the United Nations' death estimates for India in 2015. Mortality from all medical causes, stroke, and respiratory diseases showed excess risks at moderately cold temperature and hot temperature. For all examined causes, moderately cold temperature was estimated to have higher attributable risks (6.3% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI) 1.1 to 11.1] for all medical deaths, 27.2% [11.4 to 40.2] for stroke, 9.7% [3.7 to 15.3] for IHD, and 6.5% [3.5 to 9.2] for respiratory diseases) than extremely cold, moderately hot, and extremely hot temperatures. In 2015, 197,000 (121,000 to 259,000) deaths from stroke, IHD, and respiratory diseases at ages 30-69 years were attributable to moderately cold temperature, which was 12- and 42-fold higher than totals from extremely cold and extremely hot temperature, respectively. The main limitation of this study was the coarse spatial resolution of the temperature data, which may mask microclimate effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Public health interventions to mitigate temperature effects need to focus not only on extremely hot temperatures but also moderately cold temperatures. Future absolute totals of temperature-related deaths are likely to depend on the large absolute numbers of people exposed to both extremely hot and moderately cold temperatures. Similar large-scale and nationally representative studies are required in other low- and middle-income countries to better understand the impact of future temperature changes on cause-specific mortality.

Deaths from acute abdominal conditions and geographical access to surgical care in India: a nationally representative spatial analysis

BACKGROUND

Few population-based studies quantify mortality from surgical conditions and relate mortality to access to surgical care in low-income and middle-income countries.

METHODS

We linked deaths from acute abdominal conditions within a nationally representative, population-based mortality survey of 1·1 million households in India to nationally representative facility data. We calculated total and age-standardised death rates for acute abdominal conditions. Using 4064 postal codes, we undertook a spatial clustering analysis to compare geographical access to well-resourced government district hospitals (24 h surgical and anaesthesia services, blood bank, critical care beds, basic laboratory, and radiology) in high-mortality or low-mortality clusters from acute abdominal conditions.

FINDINGS

923 (1·1%) of 86,806 study deaths at ages 0-69 years were identified as deaths from acute abdominal conditions, corresponding to 72,000 deaths nationally in 2010 in India. Most deaths occurred at home (71%) and in rural areas (87%). Compared with 567 low-mortality geographical clusters, the 393 high-mortality clusters had a nine times higher age-standardised acute abdominal mortality rate and significantly greater distance to a well-resourced hospital. The odds ratio (OR) of being a high-mortality cluster was 4·4 (99% CI 3·2-6·0) for living 50 km or more from well-resourced district hospitals (rising to an OR of 16·1 [95% CI 7·9-32·8] for >100 km). No such relation was seen for deaths from non-acute surgical conditions (ie, oral, breast, and uterine cancer).

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in human and physical resources at existing government hospitals are needed to reduce deaths from acute abdominal conditions in India. Full access to well-resourced hospitals within 50 km by all of India's population could have avoided about 50,000 deaths from acute abdominal conditions, and probably more from other emergency surgical conditions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, Canadian Institute of Health Research.

Deaths from acute abdominal conditions and geographic access to surgical care in India: a nationally representative population-based spatial analysis

BACKGROUND

Acute abdominal conditions have high case-fatality rates in the absence of timely surgical care. In India, and many other low-income and middle-income countries, few population-based studies have quantified mortality from surgical conditions and related mortality to access to surgical care. We aimed to describe the spatial and socioeconomic distributions of deaths from acute abdomen (DAA) in India and to quantify potential access to surgical facilities in relation to such deaths.

METHODS

We examined deaths from acute abdominal conditions within a nationally representative, population-based mortality survey of 1·1 million Indian households and linked these to nationally representative facility data. Spatial clustering of deaths from acute abdominal conditions was calculated with the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic from about 4000 postal codes. We compared high or low acute abdominal mortality clusters for their geographic access to well-resourced surgical care (24 h surgical and anaesthesia services, blood bank, critical care beds, basic laboratory, and radiology).

FINDINGS

923 (1·1%) of 86 806 study deaths in those aged 0-69 years were identified as deaths from acute abdominal conditions, corresponding to an estimated 72 000 deaths nationally in India in 2010. Most deaths occurred at home (71%), in rural areas (87%), and were caused by peptic ulcer disease (79%). There was wide variation in rates of deaths from acute abdominal conditions. We identified 393 high-mortality geographic clusters and 567 low-mortality clusters. High-mortality clusters of acute abdominal conditions were located significantly further from well-resourced hospitals than were low-mortality clusters. The odds ratio of a postal code area being a high-mortality cluster was 4·4 (99% CI 3·2-6·0) for living 50 km or more from well-resourced district hospitals (rising to an OR of 16·1 for >100 km), after adjustment for socioeconomic status and caste.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in human and physical resources at existing public hospitals are required to reduce deaths from acute abdominal conditions in India. Had all of the Indian population had access to well-resourced hospitals within 50 km, more than 50 000 deaths from acute abdominal conditions could have been averted in 2010, and likely more from other emergency surgical conditions. Our geocoded facility data were limited to public district hospitals. However, noting the high rate of catastrophic health expenditures in India, we chose to focus on publicly provided services which are the only option usually available to the poor.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, and Canadian Institute of Health Research.

Geospatial analysis on the distributions of tobacco smoking and alcohol drinking in India

Background

Tobacco smoking and binge alcohol drinking are two of the leading risk factors for premature mortality worldwide. In India, studies have examined the geographic distributions of tobacco smoking and alcohol drinking only at the state-level; sub-state variations and the spatial association between the two consumptions are poorly understood.

Methodology

We used data from the Special Fertility and Mortality Survey conducted in 1998 to examine the geographic distributions of tobacco smoking and alcohol drinking at the district and postal code levels. We used kriging interpolation to generate smoking and drinking distributions at the postal code level. We also examined spatial autocorrelations and identified spatial clusters of high and low prevalence of smoking and drinking. Finally, we used bivariate analyses to examine the spatial correlations between smoking and drinking, and between cigarette and bidi smoking.

Results

There was a high prevalence of any smoking in the central and northeastern states, and a high prevalence of any drinking in Himachal Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, and eastern Madhya Pradesh. Spatial clusters of early smoking (started smoking before age 20) were identified in the central states. Cigarette and bidi smoking showed distinctly different geographic patterns, with high levels of cigarette smoking in the northeastern states and high levels of bidi smoking in the central states. The geographic pattern of bidi smoking was similar to early smoking. Cigarette smoking was spatially associated with any drinking. Smoking prevalences in 1998 were correlated with prevalences in 2004 at the district level and 2010 at the state level.

Conclusion

These results along with earlier evidence on the complementarities between tobacco smoking and alcohol drinking suggest that local public health action on smoking might also help to reduce alcohol consumption, and vice versa. Surveys that properly represent tobacco and alcohol consumptions at the district level are recommended.

[Preparation and characterization of the monoclonal antibodies against Japanese encephalitis virus.]

BACKGROUND

To prepare mouse monoclonal antibodies (McAbs) against Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV)and evaluate their biological characteristics.

METHODS

McAbs against JEV were prepared by immunizing, fusing, cloning and screening. Their sensitivity, specificity, universality and neutralizing function were analyzed with ELISA, IFA, NT and Western blot.

RESULTS

Titers of three McAbs against JEV were higher than 106. Three McAbs only reacted with JEV and not with other nine arboviruses. F12.37 could react with ten strains of JEV and sensitively detected ten replicating strains of viruses in BHK cell. The strains P3 and SH03-103 of JEV were neutralized by F12.37, its titers of protecting 50% cell were 3.2x105 and 105. Western blot showed that F12.37 reacted with envelop(E)protein of JEV.

CONCLUSION

Three McAbs against JEV had high titer and good specificity. And F12.37 was very sensitive and universal in reacting with JEV, and neutralized JEV of Genotype I and Genotype .The binding site of F12.37 lays in E protein of JEV.

[Molecular characterization of full-length genome of Japanese encephalitis virus (02-76) newly isolated in China.]

BACKGROUND

To sequence and analyze the complete nucleotide sequence of the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) strain 02-76, newly isolated in 2002 in China and to provide information for the genomic structure of JEV and the characteristics of virulence.

METHODS

Overlapping primers were designed according to the full-length genomes from GenBank. RT-PCR was used to amplify the fragments, sequencing was performed and all the nucleotides were connected to acquire the full-length genome. Computer software was used to analyze the nucleic acid data, deduced amino acid sequence and phylogenetic trees including Clustal X(1.8), DNASTAR, GENEDOC(3.2).

RESULTS

The result of sequence analysis showed that the genome of 02-76 strain was 10,977 nucleotides long. An open reading frame from 95 to 10,391 including 10,296 bases was found capable of coding for a 3432 amino acid polyprotein. Compared with the Beijing 1 strains isolated in 1949 in China, there was a 248 nucleotide divergence and 16 amino acid divergence. Comparison of the complete genome sequences of different JEV isolates showed a 0.6%-15.1% nucleotide sequence divergence among them, which resulted in 0.2%-4.6% amino acid sequence divergence. Phylogenetic analysis through PrM/C,E,3'NTR and full-length genome showed that the 02-76 strain belonged to genotype 3.

CONCLUSION

Analysis based on the complete genome sequences of different JEV isolates showed that the 02-76 isolate in 2002 belonged to genotype 3 and was close to the old Chinese isolates SA-14.

Reduction in primary nonfunction of syngeneic islet transplants with nordihydroguaiaretic acid, a lipoxygenase inhibitor

To study the effectiveness of a lipoxygenase inhibitor, nordihydroguaiaretic acid (NDGA), in the reduction of primary nonfunction, an insufficient number of syngeneic islets were transplanted underneath the renal capsule with NDGA administered daily for 4 weeks. After transplantation of the 150 islets, the decrement of blood glucose levels was significantly faster in the mice that had received NDGA than in the mice that had received no drug at all or dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) (p < 0.005, p < 0.05). The mean duration of temporary posttransplant hyperglycemia was 22.3 +/- 3.2 (n = 10), 35.9 +/- 2.3 (n = 14), and 33.7 +/- 4.1 (n = 6) days for the respective groups. The diabetic mice that received 300 islets had their blood glucose levels decrease faster than those that received 150 islets (19.7 +/- 1.6 vs. 35.9 +/- 2.3 days, n = 14. p < 0.0001). There was no significant difference in the blood glucose reducing effect between the mice that received 150 islets with NDGA and the mice that received 300 islets [22.3 +/- 3.2 (n = 10) vs. 19.7 +/- 1.6 (n = 14) days, p > 0.05]. The insulin content of the graft from the mice treated with 150 islets and NDGA (3.02 +/- 0.24 microg, n = 4) was higher than that from the mice that received 150 islets but no treatment (1.10 +/- 0.26 microg, n = 15, p < 0.005) or that had been treated with DMSO (1.21 +/- 0.30 microg, n = 4, p <0.05). The insulin content of the pancreas remnant had no significant differences among the three groups. The net glucose-stimulated insulin secretion was 0.82 +/- 0.14 vs. 0.20 +/- 0.10 microIU/islet x 60 min (n = 8, p < 0.005) and 0.59 +/- 0.08 vs. 0.04 +/- 0.02 microIU/islet x 60 min (n = 8, p < 0.0001) for islets cultured without NDGA vs. with NDGA at 1 and 2 weeks, respectively. However, the insulin content of the cultured islets was similar between the two groups for up to 2 weeks of incubation (at 1 week: 0.71 +/- 0.01 vs. 0.67 +/- 0.04 ng/islet, n = 8, p > 0.05; at 2 weeks: 0.71 +/- 0.02 vs. 0.80 +/- 0.07 ng/islet, n = 8, p > 0.05). Serum leukotriene B4 (LTB4) concentrations before and between the fifth and seventh days after transplantation were determined. For diabetic mice that received 150 islets, serum LTB4 levels were 25,835 +/- 3,335 and 27,631 +/- 3,136 pg/ml (n = 4, p > 0.05). For diabetic mice that received 150 islets and NDGA, the corresponding figures were 22,401 +/- 2,706 pg/ml and 27,530 +/- 2,190 pg/ml (n = 8, p > 0.05). The graft histology revealed viable islet cells and networks of close vascular structures around the islets and did not reveal microscopic differences among the samples of all four groups. In conclusion, our data revealed that daily administration of NDGA for 4 weeks enhanced isoislet engraftment and preserved three times more mass of the islet beta cells in the isografts. This result indicates that NDGA reduces primary nonfunction of islet syngeneic grafts in diabetic mice.

Isolation and complete nucleotide sequence of a Chinese Sindbis-like virus

Infection with alphaviruses is common in the Chinese population. Here we report the isolation of a Sindbis-like virus from a pool of Anopheles mosquitoes collected in Xinjiang, China during an arbovirus survey. This virus, designated XJ-160, rapidly produced cytopathic effects on mosquito and hamster cells. In addition, it was lethal to neonatal mice if inoculated intracerebrally. Serologically, XJ-160 reacted with and was neutralized by an anti-Sindbis antibody. Anti-XJ-160 antibodies were found in several cohorts of Chinese subjects. The complete 11626-base nucleotide sequence of XJ-160 was determined. XJ-160 has diverged significantly from the prototype Sindbis virus, with an 18% difference in nucleotide sequence and an 8.6% difference in amino acids; there are 11 deletions and 2 insertions, involving 99 nucleotides in total. XJ-160 is most closely linked to Kyzylagach virus isolated in Azerbaijan. Both belong to the African/European genetic lineage of Sindbis virus, albeit more distantly related to other members.

The rescue effect of 15-deoxyspergualin on intraperitoneal microencapsulated xenoislets

Because the development of surface neogrowth composed mainly of macrophages and fibroblasts precedes the recurrence of hyperglycemia in treated diabetic animals, the pericapsular macrophages may adversely affect the graft function of i.p. alginate-poly-L-lysine-alginate (A-P-A) microencapsulated islets. In order to clarify the role of pericapsular macrophages on late islet xenograft dysfunction, we investigated whether 15-deoxyspergualin (15-DSG), a macrophage inhibitor, has a rescue effect on the recurrent hyperglycemia in streptozotocin-induced diabetic mice that had been treated with i.p. transplantation of A-P-A microencapsulated rat islets. The mean duration of normoglycemia (whole blood glucose level below 8.3 mmol/l) in streptozotocin-induced diabetic mice treated with implantation of about 2200-2400 of A-P-A microencapsulated rat islets was 75 days. When the blood glucose levels were higher than 11.1 mmol/l for two consecutive determinations, 15-DSG at a dose of 0.625 mg/kg body weight or isotonic sodium chloride solution (control group) was given daily s.c.. The blood glucose levels decreased significantly from 13.9 +/- 0.5 mmol/l to 11.0 +/- 1.3 mmol/l (n = 18, p < 0.05) at the fourth day and to 7.6 +/- 1.0 mmol/l (n = 18) at the 14th day of 15-DSG administration. That was not significantly different from the mean glycemic level during the normoglycemic period (7.6 +/- 1.0 vs. 7.0 +/- 1.7 mmol/l, n = 18, p = NS). Isotonic sodium chloride solution injections did not reduce glycemic levels of mice in the control group. As another control, 10 streptozotocin-induced diabetic mice were given the same daily doses of 15-DSG for 14 days. 15-DSG did not decrease the blood glucose levels of diabetic mice in the control group. We further studied the effect of 15-DSG on the expression of interleukin-1beta (IL-1beta) in peritoneal exudate mononuclear cells (PEMCs) using reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. It was found that the mRNA of IL-1beta was undetectable in PEMCs of 15-DSG-treated diabetic mice even after those cells were stimulated by lipopolysaccharides in vitro. Administration of 15-DSG at a daily dose of 0.625 mg/kg body weight from the 22nd to the 28th day after transplantation and 7 consecutive days every 3 weeks thereafter did not prolong graft survival of i.p. microencapsulated rat islets. Our data suggest that 15-DSG has a rescue effect when A-P-A microencapsulated islets have induced cellular overgrowth that threatens the survival of the graft. It is possible that the surface overgrowth composed of macrophages is involved in the pathophysiology of late failure of A-P-A microencapsulated xenogeneic islets.

Macroaggregated albumin potentiates the hypoglycemic effect of microencapsulated islets in the fed state of streptozotocin-induced diabetic mice

Prolonged postprandial hyperglycaemia was noted in streptozotocin-induced diabetic mice which had been treated intraperitoneally with 2000-3000 alginate-poly-L-lysine-alginate (A-P-A) microencapsulated rat islets. We hypothesized that the persistent postprandial hyperglycaemia was due to shortage of intracapsular calcium ion. In order to study the effect of encapsulated macroaggregated albumin (MAA) on the function of microencapsulated islets, we coencapsulated MAA and islets in A-P-A microcapsules which we implanted intraperitoneally into streptozotocin-induced diabetic mice. From binding study and Scatchard analysis, we found that MAA-containing A-P-A microcapsules had a lower calcium binding affinity 5.24 +/- 1.20 mM versus 2.35 +/- 0.86 mM, n = 12, p < 0.01) and a higher calcium binding capacity (14.34 +/- 1.22 micrograms/mg versus 7.24 +/- 0.82 micrograms/mg, n = 12, p < 0.01) than empty A-P-A microcapsules. After intraperitoneal transplantation of 2000-3000 microcapsules containing islets and encapsulated MAA, the basal and postprandial blood glucose levels of the treated diabetic mice were not significantly different from that of normal mice. The improvement of persistent postprandial hyperglycaemia in these treated diabetic mice was not due to the difference of food intake in amount. In conclusion, A-P-A microcapsules containing islets and encapsulated MAA functioned better than microcapsules containing islets alone in treating streptozotocin-induced diabetic mice. The former preparation restored both fasting and postprandial hyperglycaemia and put these treated diabetic mice into a cured status of diabetes.

The use of field effects to generate calcium alginate microspheres and its application in cell transplantation

The diameter and sphericity of alginate-poly-L-lysine-alginate microcapsules, which was determined by the size and shape of calcium alginate microspheres, affected durability and biocompatibility of microcapsules and the result of transplantation. The commonly used airjet spray method generated microspheres with wide variation in diameter and sphericity. In order to overcome these drawbacks, we designed a field effect microparticle generator which established a stable electric field. This generated calcium alginate microspheres with an adjustable diameter (range, 50-350 microns). Factors which influenced the diameter and sphericity of microspheres included the percentage of alginate, field strength, speed of extrusion of alginate, needle gauge, field distance, and cell density in sodium alginate. The conditions used for microencapsulation of rat, pig, and human islets were 5500-6500 volts, 22 gauge needle with blunt end, 1-cm field distance, 1.5% sodium alginate, and 0.57 mL/min extrusion speed. These combinations would give most of the islet-containing microcapsules a diameter of 300-450 microns when alginate microspheres were incubated with calcium chloride solution for a total of six minutes. If individual cells (eg, NS-1) were microencapsulated, a larger gauge needle resulted in smaller microcapsules. Field strength of 6500 volts at a distance of 1 cm did not change the doubling time of NS-1 myeloma cells. By using the electric field microparticle generator, encapsulated cells were distributed around the periphery of the microspheres and thus improved the oxygen and nutrient supply of these encapsulated cells.

[Sex hormone changes during the prepubertal and pubertal development of healthy boy]

The size of testis, testosterone, LH, FSH were measured in 463 healthy boys, ages 5-18 years old. Our results showed that the values of the developmental indices increased with the age, and abruptly elevated at 13 years old indicating the beginning of puberty. At 17, all has indices had achieved the level of adulthood and did not further increase. It suggested the maturity of sex development at 17. The linear correlation analysis revealed a positive correlation between LH, FSH and testosterone (P less than 0.001, P less than 0.05-0.01, separately). The kinetic curves of LH and testosterone were also similar. The rise of LH preceded one age group than that of testosterone. The correlation between LH, FSH and testis size were positive correlation (before 14, P less than 0.001, P less than 0.01, separately; after 14, no significant difference in P values) and LH was positive correlation since 5 years old, but FSH was positive correlation since 7 years old. These finding suggest that the prepubertal testicular enlargement is primarily due to the action of LH and afterwards, FSH and testosterone combined with LH also contribute to the enlargement of testes. The clinical significance of sex hormone measurement was discussed.