Factors Affecting Mortality in Critically Ill Patients With Tuberculosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVES

Critically ill patients with tuberculosis carry high mortality. Identification of factors associated with mortality in critically ill tuberculosis patients may enable focused treatment.

DATA SOURCES

An extensive literature search of PubMed (MEDLINE), Embase, the Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar was performed using Medical Subject Headings terms "tuberculosis," "critical care," "critical care outcome," and "ICU." We aimed to identify factors affecting mortality in critically ill tuberculosis patients.

STUDY SELECTION

All the studies comparing factors affecting mortality between survivors and nonsurvivors in critically ill tuberculosis patients were included. The database search yielded a total of 3017 records, of which 17 studies were included in the meta-analysis.

DATA EXTRACTION

Data were collected including the name of the author, year and country of publication, duration of the study, number of patients studied, type of tuberculosis, patient demography, smoking history, laboratory parameters, comorbidities, the requirement for mechanical ventilation, duration of ventilation, ICU and hospital length of stay (LOS), type of lung involvement, complications, and outcomes.

DATA SYNTHESIS

The major factors that contributed to mortality in critically ill tuberculosis patients were age, platelet count, albumin, C-reactive protein (CRP), the requirement and duration of invasive mechanical ventilation, Pa o2 /F io2 ratio, presence of acute respiratory distress syndrome, shock, hospital-acquired infections, renal replacement therapy, and ICU and hospital LOS.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient age, platelet count, albumin and CRP levels, the requirement and duration of invasive mechanical ventilation, Pa o2 /F io2 ratio, hospital-acquired infections, renal replacement therapy, and ICU LOS were variables associated with mortality.

Tuberculosis treatment outcomes and associated factors at Alemgena Health Center, Sebeta, Oromia, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) is a global public health problem. Evaluation of TB treatment outcome enables health institutions to measure and improve the effectiveness of TB control programs. This study aimed to assess treatment outcomes of tuberculosis and identify associated factors among TB patients registered at Alemgena Health Center, Oromia, Ethiopia.

METHOD

A retrospective study was conducted; Secondary data were collected from medical records of 1010 TB patients treated at Alemgena Health Center between September 2012 and August 2018, inclusively. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with TB treatment outcomes. P-value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

The proportion of males and females was almost equal. Among the patients 64.7% were in the age group 15-34, 98% were new cases, 31.2% were smear positive, 13% were HIV positive and 40.3% had extra-pulmonary tuberculosis. 94.2% of the patients had successful treatment outcome, with 26.9% cured and 67.3% treatment completed, whereas 5.8% had unsuccessful treatment outcomes, of whom 4.2% died and 1.5% defaulted. Death rate was higher among patients older than 44 years (10.4%) than among children (0%). In bivariate logistic regression analysis, treatment success rate was 3.582 (95% CI 1.958-6.554, p-value = .000) times higher in the age group 44 and below compared to the age group 45 and above.

CONCLUSION

Treatment success rate exceeded the one targeted by WHO. Age was found to be associated with treatment outcome. Success rate has to be improved for TB patients in the age group greater than 45 years of age.

Mortality among extrapulmonary tuberculosis patients in the HIV endemic setting: lessons from a tertiary level hospital in Mbeya, Tanzania

Extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) has received less attention than pulmonary tuberculosis due to its non-contagious nature. EPTB can affect any organ and is more prevalent in people living with HIV. Low- and middle-income countries are now facing the double burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and HIV, complicating the management of patients with symptoms that could be compatible with both EPTB and NCDs. Little is known about the risk of death of patients presenting with symptoms compatible with EPTB. We included patients with a clinical suspicion of EPTB from a tertiary level hospital in Mbeya, Tanzania, to assess their risk of dying. A total of 113 (61%) patients were classified as having EPTB, and 72 (39%) as having non-TB, with corresponding mortality rates of 40% and 41%. Associated factors for mortality in the TB groups was hospitalization and male sex. Risk factors for hospitalization was having disease manifestation at any site other than lymph nodes, and comorbidities. Our results imply that NCDs serve as significant comorbidities amplifying the mortality risk in EPTB. To strive towards universal health coverage, focus should be on building robust health systems that can tackle both infectious diseases, such as EPTB, and NCDs.

Testing novel strategies for patients hospitalised with HIV-associated disseminated tuberculosis (NewStrat-TB): protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

HIV-associated tuberculosis (TB) contributes disproportionately to global tuberculosis mortality. Patients hospitalised at the time of the diagnosis of HIV-associated disseminated TB are typically severely ill and have a high mortality risk despite initiation of tuberculosis treatment. The objective of the study is to assess the safety and efficacy of both intensified TB treatment (high dose rifampicin plus levofloxacin) and immunomodulation with corticosteroids as interventions to reduce early mortality in hospitalised patients with HIV-associated disseminated TB.

METHODS

This is a phase III randomised controlled superiority trial, evaluating two interventions in a 2 × 2 factorial design: (1) high dose rifampicin (35 mg/kg/day) plus levofloxacin added to standard TB treatment for the first 14 days versus standard tuberculosis treatment and (2) adjunctive corticosteroids (prednisone 1.5 mg/kg/day) versus identical placebo for the first 14 days of TB treatment. The study population is HIV-positive patients diagnosed with disseminated TB (defined as being positive by at least one of the following assays: urine Alere LAM, urine Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra or blood Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra) during a hospital admission. The primary endpoint is all-cause mortality at 12 weeks comparing, first, patients receiving intensified TB treatment to standard of care and, second, patients receiving corticosteroids to those receiving placebo. Analysis of the primary endpoint will be by intention to treat. Secondary endpoints include all-cause mortality at 2 and 24 weeks. Safety and tolerability endpoints include hepatoxicity evaluations and corticosteroid-related adverse events.

DISCUSSION

Disseminated TB is characterised by a high mycobacterial load and patients are often critically ill at presentation, with features of sepsis, which carries a high mortality risk. Interventions that reduce this high mycobacterial load or modulate associated immune activation could potentially reduce mortality. If found to be safe and effective, the interventions being evaluated in this trial could be easily implemented in clinical practice.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04951986. Registered on 7 July 2021 https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04951986.

Sex-based tuberculosis mortality in Newfoundland, 1900-1949: Implications for populations in transition

OBJECTIVE

During the second epidemiological transition, tuberculosis (TB) is one disease that declined substantially enough to reduce all-cause mortality. Sex-based differences in TB mortality may reveal an important dimension of population health transitions between the urbanizing and rural regions of Newfoundland.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

For the island of Newfoundland, yearly age-standardized sex-based TB mortality rates were calculated using individual death records from 1900 to 1949 (n = 30 393). Multiple linear regression models predict the relative rates (RR) of sex-based mortality and the absolute difference between males and females while controlling for time and region (the urbanizing Avalon Peninsula or rural Newfoundland). Multiple linear regression models also predict the median age at death from TB while controlling for time, region, and sex to assess if TB was shifting to an older adult disease compared to those typically afflicted in ages 20-44.

RESULTS

Female TB mortality was relatively and absolutely higher than males; additionally, RR and absolute differences between male and female mortality were significantly lower in rural Newfoundland than the Avalon Peninsula. Median age at death for males was significantly higher than females, and differences in median age at death increased over time.

DISCUSSION

The historically high prevalence of TB throughout Newfoundland, including domestic, social, and public health responsibilities of women, likely contributed to increased exposure and transmission, leading to higher observed mortality. Sex-based TB outcomes should be considered in the discussion of the progression of the epidemiological transition as dynamic inequalities that do not necessarily fit contemporary generalizations of sex-based TB epidemiology.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of Tuberculosis and COVID-19 Co-infection: Prevalence, fatality, and treatment considerations

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) and COVID-19 co-infection poses a significant global health challenge with increased fatality rates and adverse outcomes. However, the existing evidence on the epidemiology and treatment of TB-COVID co-infection remains limited.

METHODS

This updated systematic review aimed to investigate the prevalence, fatality rates, and treatment outcomes of TB-COVID co-infection. A comprehensive search across six electronic databases spanning November 1, 2019, to January 24, 2023, was conducted. The Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist assessed risk of bias of included studies, and meta-analysis estimated co-infection fatality rates and relative risk.

RESULTS

From 5,095 studies screened, 17 were included. TB-COVID co-infection prevalence was reported in 38 countries or regions, spanning both high and low TB prevalence areas. Prevalence estimates were approximately 0.06% in West Cape Province, South Africa, and 0.02% in California, USA. Treatment approaches for TB-COVID co-infection displayed minimal evolution since 2021. Converging findings from diverse studies underscored increased hospitalization risks, extended recovery periods, and accelerated mortality compared to single COVID-19 cases. The pooled fatality rate among co-infected patients was 7.1% (95%CI: 4.0% ~ 10.8%), slightly lower than previous estimates. In-hospital co-infected patients faced a mean fatality rate of 11.4% (95%CI: 5.6% ~ 18.8%). The pooled relative risk of in-hospital fatality was 0.8 (95% CI, 0.18-3.68) for TB-COVID patients versus single COVID patients.

CONCLUSION

TB-COVID co-infection is increasingly prevalent worldwide, with fatality rates gradually declining but remaining higher than COVID-19 alone. This underscores the urgency of continued research to understand and address the challenges posed by TB-COVID co-infection.

A Mathematical Model for the Impact of 3HP and Social Programme Implementation on the Incidence and Mortality of Tuberculosis: Study in Brazil

In this paper, we presented a mathematical model for tuberculosis with treatment for latent tuberculosis cases and incorporated social implementations based on the impact they will have on tuberculosis incidence, cure, and recovery. We incorporated two variables containing the accumulated deaths and active cases into the model in order to study the incidence and mortality rate per year with the data reported by the model. Our objective is to study the impact of social program implementations and therapies on latent tuberculosis in particular the use of once-weekly isoniazid-rifapentine for 12 weeks (3HP). The computational experimentation was performed with data from Brazil and for model calibration, we used the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) with a Bayesian approach. We studied the effect of increasing the coverage of social programs, the Bolsa Familia Programme (BFP) and the Family Health Strategy (FHS) and the implementation of the 3HP as a substitution therapy for two rates of diagnosis and treatment of latent at 1% and 5%. Based of the data obtained by the model in the period 2023-2035, the FHS reported better results than BFP in the case of social implementations and 3HP with a higher rate of diagnosis and treatment of latent in the reduction of incidence and mortality rate and in cases and deaths avoided. With the objective of linking the social and biomedical implementations, we constructed two different scenarios with the rate of diagnosis and treatment. We verified with results reported by the model that with the social implementations studied and the 3HP with the highest rate of diagnosis and treatment of latent, the best results were obtained in comparison with the other independent and joint implementations. A reduction of the incidence by 36.54% with respect to the model with the current strategies and coverage was achieved, and a greater number of cases and deaths from tuberculosis was avoided.

Sociodemographic and clinical risk factors associated with in-hospital tuberculosis mortality in Türkiye, 2008-2018

Introduction

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease that can be fatal if left untreated or poorly treated, and it is associated with many morbidities. Deaths may provide better understanding of the associated factors and help guide interventions to reduce mortality. In this study, it was aimed to reveal some of the features that predict hospital mortality in patients with TB and to present some alarming findings for clinicians.

Materials and Methods

Patients who had been hospitalized with the diagnosis of TB between January 2008 and December 2018 were included and analyzed retrospectively. In-hospital mortality because of any TB disease after the initiation of treatment in patients admitted to the TB Ward and the primary cause of mortality were taken as endpoint.

Result

A total of 1321 patients with a mean age of 50.1 years were examined. Total mortality was 39.4% (521 deaths) and 13.1% were in-hospital deaths (173 deaths). Of the deaths, 61.8% (n= 107) occurred during the first month after TB treatment were started. On univariate analysis, age over 48.5 years, Charlson comorbidity index, extension of radiological involvement, hypoalbuminemia and lymphopenia were most predictive variables with higher odds ratios (respectively, p<0.001 for all).

Conclusions

In-hospital tuberculosis disease mortality is related with older age, cavitary or extensive pulmonary involvement, low albumin levels, unemployment, cigarette smoking and especially those with concomitant malignancy and chronic pulmonary disease.

Tuberculosis Coinfection among COVID-19 Patients: Clinical Presentation and Mortality in a Tertiary Lung Hospital in Indonesia

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are the top two killers of infectious disease. We aimed to determine the association of TB coinfection with the inhospital mortality of COVID-19 patients in Indonesia as a TB-endemic country.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study in a tertiary lung hospital in Indonesia. All TB-coinfected COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized between January 2020 and December 2021 were included in the study. COVID-19 patients without TB were randomly selected for the control group. Clinical characteristics and laboratory results were assessed. Survival analysis was performed to determine the estimated death rate and median survival time (MST). Multivariate Cox regression analysis was conducted to define the association of TB coinfection with the in-hospital mortality of COVID-19.

RESULTS

We included 86 (8.3%) TB coinfections among 1034 confirmed COVID-19 patients. TB coinfection patients had younger age, malnutrition, and different symptoms compared to the COVID-19 group. TB-coinfected patients had a lower estimated death rate than the COVID-19 group (6.5 vs. 18.8 per 1000 population). MST in the COVID-19 group was 38 (interquartile range 16-47) days, whereas the same observation time failed to determine the MST in the TB coinfection group. TB coinfection had a crude hazard ratio of mortality 0.37 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.15-0.94, P = 0. 004). The final model analysis including age, sex, and lymphocyte as confounding factors resulted in an adjusted HR of mortality 0.31 (95% CI 0.1-0.9).

CONCLUSION

This study showed TB coinfection was negatively associated with the in-hospital mortality of COVID-19.

Characteristics of and Deaths among 333 Persons with Tuberculosis and COVID-19 in Cross-Sectional Sample from 25 Jurisdictions, United States

Little is known about co-occurring tuberculosis (TB) and COVID-19 in low TB incidence settings. We obtained a cross-section of 333 persons in the United States co-diagnosed with TB and COVID-19 within 180 days and compared them to 4,433 persons with TB only in 2020 and 18,898 persons with TB during 2017‒2019. Across both comparison groups, a higher proportion of persons with TB-COVID-19 were Hispanic, were long-term care facility residents, and had diabetes. When adjusted for age, underlying conditions, and TB severity, COVID-19 co-infection was not statistically associated with death compared with TB infection only in 2020 (adjusted prevalence ratio 1.0 [95% CI 0.8‒1.4]). Among TB-COVID-19 patients, death was associated with a shorter interval between TB and COVID-19 diagnoses, older age, and being immunocompromised (non-HIV). TB-COVID-19 deaths in the United States appear to be concentrated in subgroups sharing characteristics known to increase risk for death from either disease alone.

Changes in mortality in a non-industrialized Portugal: Coimbra Municipal Cemetery records (1861-1914) and identified osteological collections

OBJECTIVE

To investigate if there were changes in mortality knowing that industrialization was a slow and late process in Portugal.

MATERIALS

The biographic information (1) of the individuals buried at the Coimbra Municipal Cemetery, considering three quinquennia: 1861-1865 (n = 1111, 18.3%), 1870-1974 (n = 2602, 42.7%), 1910-1914 (n = 2374, 39.0%), related to the periods before, during and at the end of the second industrialization and (2) of the Coimbra identified osteological collections (CIOC, N = 1796) composed of individuals who were born and died in the city.

METHODS

Excel databases with the biographic information were analyzed with SPSS.

RESULTS

Data from the cemetery show statistically significant differences between sexes and age-at-death mortalities. Non-adult mortality (higher in the age range from 1 to 7 years) has decreased over time which has increased mean age-at-death. The main adult occupations are domestic work (females) and craft activities (males). Child labor is common after the age of 14. The main causes of death (in both cemetery and CIOC records) were infections, respiratory diseases, heart disease, and malignant neoplasm. Among the communicable diseases, tuberculosis accounted for the highest number of deaths. The identified individuals have lesions compatible with tuberculosis and sinusitis while malignant neoplasms are more difficult to identify. The high prevalence of heart disease can overshadow other causes of death.

CONCLUSIONS

In the absence of industrialization, tuberculosis, heart disease, and malignant neoplasms increased over time, while respiratory diseases decreased.

SIGNIFICANCE

Mortality profile changed between 1861-1864 and 1910-1914 in Coimbra.

LIMITATIONS

The causes of death were studied, but not all diseases.

SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH

Study of other cemetery records for further comparison.

Time trend, social vulnerability, and identification of risk areas for tuberculosis in Brazil: An ecological study

Introduction

Tuberculosis is one of the ten leading causes of death and the leading infectious cause worldwide. The disease represents a challenge to health systems around the world. In 2018, it is estimated that 10 million people were affected by tuberculosis, and approximately 1.5 million people died due to the disease worldwide, including 251,000 patients coinfected with HIV. In Brazil, the disease caused 4,490 deaths, with rate of 2.2 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. The objective of this study was to analyze the time behavior, spatial, spatial-temporal distribution, and the effects of social vulnerability on the incidence of TB in Brazil during the period from 2001 to 2017.

Materials and methods

A spatial-temporal ecological study was conducted, including all new cases of tuberculosis registered in Brazil during the period from 2001 to 2017. The following variables were analyzed: incidence rate of tuberculosis, the Social Vulnerability Index, its subindices, its 16 indicators, and an additional 14 variables available on the Atlas of Social Vulnerability. The statistical treatment of the data consisted of the following three stages: a) time trend analysis with a joinpoint regression model; b) spatial analysis and identification of risk areas based on smoothing of the incidence rate by local empirical Bayesian model, application of global and local Moran statistics, and, finally, spatial-temporal scan statistics; and c) analysis of association between the incidence rate and the indicators of social vulnerability.

Results

Brazil reduced the incidence of tuberculosis from 42.8 per 100,000 to 35.2 per 100,000 between 2001 and 2017. Only the state of Minas Gerais showed an increasing trend, whereas nine other states showed a stationary trend. A total of 326 Brazilian municipalities were classified as high priority, and 22 high-risk spatial-temporal clusters were identified. The overall Social Vulnerability Index and the subindices of Human Capital and Income and Work were associated with the incidence of tuberculosis. It was also observed that the incidence rates were greater in municipalities with greater social vulnerability.

Conclusions

This study identified clusters with high risk of TB in Brazil. A significant association was observed between the incidence rate of TB and the indices of social vulnerability.

Global estimates of paediatric tuberculosis incidence in 2013-19: a mathematical modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Many children who develop tuberculosis are thought to be missed by diagnostic and reporting systems. We aimed to estimate paediatric tuberculosis incidence and underreporting between 2013 and 2019 in countries representing more than 99% of the global tuberculosis burden.

METHODS

We developed a mathematical model of paediatric tuberculosis natural history, accounting for key mechanisms and risk factors for infectious exposure (HIV, malnutrition, and BCG non-vaccination), the probability of infection given exposure, and progression to disease among infected individuals. We extracted paediatric population estimates from UN Population Division data, and we used WHO estimates for adult tuberculosis incidence rates. We parameterised this model for 185 countries and calibrated it using data from countries with stronger case detection and reporting systems. Using this model, we estimated trends in paediatric incidence, and the proportion of these cases that are diagnosed and reported (case detection ratio [CDR]) for each country, age group, and year.

FINDINGS

For 2019, we estimated 997 500 (95% credible interval [CrI] 868 700-1 163 100) incident tuberculosis cases among children, with 481 000 cases (398 400-587 400) among those aged 0-4 years and 516 500 cases (442 900-608 000) among those aged 5-14 years. The paediatric CDR was estimated to be lower in children aged 0-4 years (41%, 95% CrI 34-50) than in those aged 5-14 years (63%, 53-75) and varied widely between countries. Estimated CDRs increased substantially over the study period, from 18% (15-20) in 2013 to 53% (45-60) in 2019, with improvements concentrated in the Eastern Mediterranean, South-East Asia, and Western Pacific regions. Over the study period, global incidence was estimated to have declined slowly at an average annual rate of 1·52% (1·42-1·66).

INTERPRETATION

Paediatric tuberculosis causes substantial morbidity and mortality, and these data indicate that cases (and, thus, probably associated mortality) are currently substantially underreported. These findings reinforce the need to ensure prompt diagnosis and care for children developing tuberculosis, strengthen reporting systems, and invest in research to develop more accurate and easy-to-use diagnostics for paediatric tuberculosis in high-burden settings.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health.

Peptide-Based Vaccines for Tuberculosis

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. As a result of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the global TB mortality rate in 2020 is rising, making TB prevention and control more challenging. Vaccination has been considered the best approach to reduce the TB burden. Unfortunately, BCG, the only TB vaccine currently approved for use, offers some protection against childhood TB but is less effective in adults. Therefore, it is urgent to develop new TB vaccines that are more effective than BCG. Accumulating data indicated that peptides or epitopes play essential roles in bridging innate and adaptive immunity and triggering adaptive immunity. Furthermore, innovations in bioinformatics, immunoinformatics, synthetic technologies, new materials, and transgenic animal models have put wings on the research of peptide-based vaccines for TB. Hence, this review seeks to give an overview of current tools that can be used to design a peptide-based vaccine, the research status of peptide-based vaccines for TB, protein-based bacterial vaccine delivery systems, and animal models for the peptide-based vaccines. These explorations will provide approaches and strategies for developing safer and more effective peptide-based vaccines and contribute to achieving the WHO’s End TB Strategy.

Estimation of lifetime survival and predictors of mortality among TB with HIV co-infected children after test and treat strategies launched in Northwest, Ethiopia, 2021; a multicentre historical follow-up study

INTRODUCTION

In resource-limited settings, the mortality rate among tuberculosis and human Immunodeficiency virus co-infected children is higher. However, there is no adequate evidence in Ethiopia in general and in the study area in particular. Hence, this study aims to estimate lifetime survival and predictors of mortality among TB with HIV co-infected children after test and treat strategies launched in Northwest Ethiopia Hospitals, 2021.

METHODS

Institution-based historical follow-up study was conducted in Northwest Ethiopia Hospitals among 227 Tuberculosis and Human Immunodeficiency Virus co-infected children from March 1, 2014, to January 12, 2021. The data were entered into Epi info-7 and then exported to STATA version 14 for analysis. The log-rank test was used to estimate the curve difference of the predictor variables. Bivariable cox-proportional hazard models were employed for each predictor variable. Additionally, those variables having a p-value < 0.25 in bivariate analysis were fitted into a multivariable cox-proportional hazards model. P-value < 0.05 was used to declare significance associated with the dependent variable.

RESULTS

From a total of 227 TB and HIV co-infected children, 39 died during the follow-up period. The overall mortality rate was 3.7 (95% CI (confidence interval): 2.9-4.7) per 100 person-years with a total of 1063.2-year observations. Cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (CPT) non-users [Adjusted Hazarded Ratio (AHR) = 3.8 (95% CI: 1.64-8.86)], presence of treatment failure [AHR = 3.0 (95% CI: 1.14-78.17)], and Cluster of differentiation 4(CD4) count below threshold [AHR = 2.7 (95% CI: 1.21-6.45)] were significant predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

In this study, the mortality rate among TB and HIV co-infected children was found to be very high. The risk of mortality among TB and HIV co-infected children was associated with treatment failure, CD4 count below the threshold, and cotrimoxazole preventive therapy non-users. Further research should conduct to assess and improve the quality of ART service in Northwest Ethiopia Hospitals.

Incidence and predictors of mortality among persons receiving second-line tuberculosis treatment in sub-Saharan Africa: A meta-analysis of 43 cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Drug resistance remains from among the most feared public health threats that commonly challenges tuberculosis treatment success. Since 2010, there have been rapid evolution and advances to second-line anti-tuberculosis treatments (SLD). However, evidence on impacts of these advances on incidence of mortality are scarce and conflicting. Estimating the number of people died from any cause during the follow-up period of SLD as the incidence proportion of all-cause mortality is the most informative way of appraising the drug-resistant tuberculosis treatment outcome. We thus aimed to estimate the pooled incidence of mortality and its predictors among persons receiving the SLD in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We systematically identified relevant studies published between January, 2010 and March, 2020, by searching PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, Cochrane library, Google scholar, and Health Technology Assessment. Eligible English-language publications reported on death and/or its predictors among persons receiving SLD, but those publications that reported death among persons treated for extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis were excluded. Study features, patients' clinical characteristics, and incidence and/or predictors of mortality were extracted and pooled for effect sizes employing a random-effects model. The pooled incidence of mortality was estimated as percentage rate while risks of the individual predictors were appraised based on their independent associations with the mortality outcome.

RESULTS

A total of 43 studies were reviewed that revealed 31,525 patients and 4,976 deaths. The pooled incidence of mortality was 17% (95% CI: 15%-18%; I2 = 91.40; P = 0.00). The studies used varied models in identifying predictors of mortality. They found diagnoses of clinical conditions (RR: 2.36; 95% CI: 1.82-3.05); excessive substance use (RR: 2.56; 95% CI: 1.78-3.67); HIV and other comorbidities (RR: 1.96; 95% CI: 1.65-2.32); resistance to SLD (RR: 1.75; 95% CI: 1.37-2.23); and male sex (RR: 1.82; 95% CI: 1.35-2.44) as consistent predictors of the mortality. Few individual studies also reported an increased incidence of mortality among persons initiated with the SLD after a month delay (RR: 1.59; 95% CI: 0.98-2.60) and those persons with history of tuberculosis (RR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.12-1.32).

CONCLUSIONS

We found about one in six persons who received SLD in sub-Saharan Africa had died in the last decade. This incidence of mortality among the drug-resistant tuberculosis patients in the sub-Saharan Africa mirrors the global average. Nevertheless, it was considerably high among the patients who had comorbidities; who were diagnosed with other clinical conditions; who had resistance to SLD; who were males and substance users. Therefore, modified measures involving shorter SLD regimens fortified with newer or repurposed drugs, differentiated care approaches, and support of substance use rehabilitation programs can help improve the treatment outcome of persons with the drug-resistant tuberculosis.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020160473; PROSPERO.

Sociodemographic Characteristics, Comorbidities, and Mortality Among Persons Diagnosed With Tuberculosis and COVID-19 in Close Succession in California, 2020

IMPORTANCE

Tuberculosis (TB) and COVID-19 are respiratory diseases that disproportionately occur among medically underserved populations; little is known about their epidemiologic intersection.

OBJECTIVE

To characterize persons diagnosed with TB and COVID-19 in California.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional analysis of population-based public health surveillance data assessed the sociodemographic, clinical, and epidemiologic characteristics of California residents who were diagnosed with TB (including cases diagnosed and reported between September 3, 2019, and December 31, 2020) and COVID-19 (including confirmed cases based on positive results on polymerase chain reaction tests and probable cases based on positive results on antigen assays reported through February 2, 2021) in close succession compared with those who were diagnosed with TB before the COVID-19 pandemic (between January 1, 2017, and December 31, 2019) or diagnosed with COVID-19 alone (through February 2, 2021). This analysis included 3 402 713 California residents with COVID-19 alone, 6280 with TB before the pandemic, and 91 with confirmed or probable COVID-19 diagnosed within 120 days of a TB diagnosis (ie, TB/COVID-19).

EXPOSURES

Sociodemographic characteristics, medical risk factors, factors associated with TB severity, and health equity index.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Frequency of reported successive TB and COVID-19 (TB/COVID-19) diagnoses within 120 days, frequency of deaths, and age-adjusted mortality rates.

RESULTS

Among the 91 persons with TB/COVID-19, the median age was 58.0 years (range, 3.0-95.0 years; IQR, 41.0-73.0 years); 52 persons (57.1%) were male; 81 (89.0%) were born outside the US; and 28 (30.8%) were Asian or Pacific Islander, 4 (4.4%) were Black, 55 (60.4%) were Hispanic or Latino, 4 (4.4%) were White. The frequency of reported COVID-19 among those who received a TB diagnosis between September 3, 2019, and December 31, 2020, was 225 of 2210 persons (10.2%), which was similar to that of the general population (3 402 804 of 39 538 223 persons [8.6%]). Compared with persons with TB before the pandemic, those with TB/COVID-19 were more likely to be Hispanic or Latino (2285 of 6279 persons [36.4%; 95% CI, 35.2%-37.6%] vs 55 of 91 persons [60.4%; 95% CI, 49.6%-70.5%], respectively; P < .001), reside in low health equity census tracts (1984 of 6027 persons [32.9%; 95% CI, 31.7%-34.1%] vs 40 of 89 persons [44.9%; 95% CI, 34.4%-55.9%]; P = .003), live in the US longer before receiving a TB diagnosis (median, 19.7 years [IQR, 7.2-32.3 years] vs 23.1 years [IQR, 15.2-31.5 years]; P = .03), and have diabetes (1734 of 6280 persons [27.6%; 95% CI, 26.5%-28.7%] vs 42 of 91 persons [46.2%; 95% CI, 35.6%-56.9%]; P < .001). The frequency of deaths among those with TB/COVID-19 successively diagnosed within 30 days (8 of 34 persons [23.5%; 95% CI, 10.8%-41.2%]) was more than twice that of persons with TB before the pandemic (631 of 5545 persons [11.4%; 95% CI, 10.6%-12.2%]; P = .05) and 20 times that of persons with COVID-19 alone (42 171 of 3 402 713 persons [1.2%; 95% CI, 1.2%-1.3%]; P < .001). Persons with TB/COVID-19 who died were older (median, 81.0 years; IQR, 75.0-85.0 years) than those who survived (median, 54.0 years; IQR, 37.5-68.5 years; P < .001). The age-adjusted mortality rate remained higher among persons with TB/COVID-19 (74.2 deaths per 1000 persons; 95% CI, 26.2-122.1 deaths per 1000 persons) compared with either disease alone (TB before the pandemic: 56.3 deaths per 1000 persons [95% CI, 51.2-61.4 deaths per 1000 persons]; COVID-19 only: 17.1 deaths per 1000 persons [95% CI, 16.9-17.2 deaths per 1000 persons]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cross-sectional analysis, TB/COVID-19 was disproportionately diagnosed among California residents who were Hispanic or Latino, had diabetes, or were living in low health equity census tracts. These results suggest that tuberculosis and COVID-19 occurring together may be associated with increases in mortality compared with either disease alone, especially among older adults. Addressing health inequities and integrating prevention efforts could avert the occurrence of concurrent COVID-19 and TB and potentially reduce deaths.

The effect of BCG revaccination on all-cause mortality beyond infancy: 30-year follow-up of a population-based, double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial in Malawi

BACKGROUND

Trials of BCG vaccination to prevent or reduce severity of COVID-19 are taking place in adults, some of whom have been previously vaccinated, but evidence of the beneficial, non-specific effects of BCG come largely from data on mortality in infants and young children, and from in-vitro and animal studies, after a first BCG vaccination. We assess all-cause mortality following a large BCG revaccination trial in Malawi.

METHODS

The Karonga Prevention trial was a population-based, double-blind, randomised controlled in Karonga District, northern Malawi, that enrolled participants between January, 1986, and November, 1989. The trial compared BCG (Glaxo-strain) revaccination versus placebo to prevent tuberculosis and leprosy. 46 889 individuals aged 3 months to 75 years were randomly assigned to receive BCG revaccination (n=23 528) or placebo (n=23 361). Here we report mortality since vaccination as recorded during active follow-up in northern areas of the district in 1991-94, and in a demographic surveillance follow-up in the southern area in 2002-18. 7389 individuals who received BCG (n=3746) or placebo (n=3643) lived in the northern follow-up areas, and 5616 individuals who received BCG (n=2798) or placebo (n=2818) lived in the southern area. Year of death or leaving the area were recorded for those not found. We used survival analysis to estimate all-cause mortality.

FINDINGS

Follow-up information was available for 3709 (99·0%) BCG recipients and 3612 (99·1%) placebo recipients in the northern areas, and 2449 (87·5%) BCG recipients and 2413 (85·6%) placebo recipients in the southern area. There was no difference in mortality between the BCG and placebo groups in either area, overall or by age group or sex. In the northern area, there were 129 deaths per 19 694 person-years at risk in the BCG group (6·6 deaths per 1000 person-years at risk [95% CI 5·5-7·8]) versus 133 deaths per 19 111 person-years at risk in the placebo group (7·0 deaths per 1000 person-years at risk [95% CI 5·9-8·2]; HR 0·94 [95% CI 0·74-1·20]; p=0·62). In the southern area, there were 241 deaths per 38 399 person-years at risk in the BCG group (6·3 deaths per 1000 person-years at risk [95% CI 5·5-7·1]) versus 230 deaths per 38 676 person-years at risk in the placebo group (5·9 deaths per 1000 person-years at risk [95% CI 5·2-6·8]; HR 1·06 [95% CI 0·88-1·27]; p=0·54).

INTERPRETATION

We found little evidence of any beneficial effect of BCG revaccination on all-cause mortality. The high proportion of deaths attributable to non-infectious causes beyond infancy, and the long time interval since BCG for most deaths, might obscure any benefits.

FUNDING

British Leprosy Relief Association (LEPRA); Wellcome Trust.

Institutional mortality rate and cause of death at health facilities in Ghana between 2014 and 2018

BACKGROUND

The epidemiological transition, touted as occurring in Ghana, requires research that tracks the changing patterns of diseases in order to capture the trend and improve healthcare delivery. This study examines national trends in mortality rate and cause of death at health facilities in Ghana between 2014 and 2018.

METHODS

Institutional mortality data and cause of death from 2014-2018 were sourced from the Ghana Health Service's District Health Information Management System. The latter collates healthcare service data routinely from government and non-governmental health institutions in Ghana yearly. The institutional mortality rate was estimated using guidelines from the Ghana Health Service. Percent change in mortality was examined for 2014 and 2018. In addition, cause of death data were available for 2017 and 2018. The World Health Organisation's 11th International Classification for Diseases (ICD-11) was used to group the cause of death.

RESULTS

Institutional mortality decreased by 7% nationally over the study period. However, four out of ten regions (Greater Accra, Volta, Upper East, and Upper West) recorded increases in institutional mortality. The Upper East (17%) and Volta regions (13%) recorded the highest increase. Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) were the leading cause of death in 2017 (25%) and 2018 (20%). This was followed by certain infectious and parasitic diseases (15% for both years) and respiratory infections (10% in 2017 and 13% in 2018). Among the NCDs, hypertension was the leading cause of death with 2,243 and 2,472 cases in 2017 and 2018. Other (non-ischemic) heart diseases and diabetes were the second and third leading NCDs. Septicaemia, tuberculosis and pneumonia were the predominant infectious diseases. Regional variations existed in the cause of death. NCDs showed more urban-region bias while infectious diseases presented more rural-region bias.

CONCLUSIONS

This study examined national trends in mortality rate and cause of death at health facilities in Ghana. Ghana recorded a decrease in institutional mortality throughout the study. NCDs and infections were the leading causes of death, giving a double-burden of diseases. There is a need to enhance efforts towards healthcare and health promotion programmes for NCDs and infectious diseases at facility and community levels as outlined in the 2020 National Health Policy of Ghana.

Mortality during tuberculosis treatment in South Africa using an 8-year analysis of the national tuberculosis treatment register

In 2011, the South African HIV treatment eligibility criteria were expanded to allow all tuberculosis (TB) patients lifelong ART. The impact of this change on TB mortality in South Africa is not known. We evaluated mortality in all adults (≥ 15 years old) treated for drug-susceptible TB in South Africa between 2009 and 2016. Using a Cox regression model, we quantified risk factors for mortality during TB treatment and present standardised mortality ratios (SMR) stratified by year, age, sex, and HIV status. During the study period, 8.6% (219,618/2,551,058) of adults on TB treatment died. Older age, male sex, previous TB treatment and HIV infection (with or without the use of ART) were associated with increased hazard of mortality. There was a 19% reduction in hazard of mortality amongst all TB patients between 2009 and 2016 (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.81 95%CI 0.80-0.83). The highest SMR was in 15-24-year-old women, more than double that of men (42.3 in 2016). Between 2009 and 2016, the SMR for HIV-positive TB patients increased, from 9.0 to 19.6 in women, and 7.0 to 10.6 in men. In South Africa, case fatality during TB treatment is decreasing and further interventions to address specific risk factors for TB mortality are required. Young women (15-24-year-olds) with TB experience a disproportionate burden of mortality and interventions targeting this age-group are needed.

Quantifying the global number of tuberculosis survivors: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

People who survive tuberculosis face clinical and societal consequences after recovery, including increased risks of recurrent tuberculosis, premature death, reduced lung function, and ongoing stigma. To describe the size of this issue, we aimed to estimate the number of individuals who developed first-episode tuberculosis between 1980 and 2019, the number who survived to 2020, and the number who have been treated within the past 5 years or 2 years.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we estimated the number of people who survived treated tuberculosis using country-level WHO data on tuberculosis case notifications, excluding those who died during treatment. We estimated the number of individuals surviving untreated tuberculosis using the difference between WHO country-level incidence estimates and notifications, applying published age-stratified and HIV-stratified case fatality ratios. To estimate survival with time, post-tuberculosis life tables were developed for each country-year by use of UN World Population Prospects 2019 mortality rates and published post-tuberculosis mortality hazard ratios.

FINDINGS

Between 1980 and 2019, we estimate that 363 million people (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 287 million-438 million) developed tuberculosis, of whom 172 million (169 million-174 million) were treated. Individuals who developed tuberculosis between 1980 and 2019 had lived 3480 million life-years (95% UI 3040 million-3920 million) after tuberculosis by 2020, with survivors younger than 15 years at the time of tuberculosis development contributing 12% (95% UI 7-17) of these life-years. We estimate that 155 million tuberculosis survivors (95% UI 138 million-171 million) were alive in 2020, the largest proportion (47% [37-57]) of whom were in the WHO South-East Asia region. Of the tuberculosis survivors who were alive in 2020, we estimate that 18% (95% UI 16-20) were treated in the past 5 years and 8% (7-9) were treated in the past 2 years.

INTERPRETATION

The number of tuberculosis survivors alive in 2020 is more than ten times the estimated annual tuberculosis incidence. Interventions to alleviate respiratory morbidity, screen for and prevent recurrent tuberculosis, and reduce stigma should be immediately prioritised for recently treated tuberculosis survivors.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, the UK Department for International Development, the National Institute for Health Research, and the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership.

Early mortality in tuberculosis patients initially lost to follow up following diagnosis in provincial hospitals and primary health care facilities in Western Cape, South Africa

In South Africa, low tuberculosis (TB) treatment coverage and high TB case fatality remain important challenges. Following TB diagnosis, patients must link with a primary health care (PHC) facility for initiation or continuation of antituberculosis treatment and TB registration. We aimed to evaluate mortality among TB patients who did not link to a TB treatment facility for TB treatment within 30 days of their TB diagnosis, i.e. who were “initial loss to follow-up (ILTFU)” in Cape Town, South Africa. We prospectively included all patients with a routine laboratory or clinical diagnosis of TB made at PHC or hospital level in Khayelitsha and Tygerberg sub-districts in Cape Town, using routine TB data from an integrated provincial health data centre between October 2018 and March 2020. Overall, 74% (10,208/13,736) of TB patients were diagnosed at PHC facilities and ILTFU was 20.0% (2,742/13,736). Of ILTFU patients, 17.1% (468/2,742) died, with 69.7% (326/468) of deaths occurring within 30 days of diagnosis. Most ILTFU deaths (85.5%; 400/468) occurred in patients diagnosed in hospital. Multivariable logistic regression identified increasing age, HIV positive status, and hospital-based TB diagnosis (higher in the absence of TB treatment initiation and being ILTFU) as predictors of mortality. Although hospitals account for a modest proportion of diagnosed TB patients they have high TB-associated mortality. A hospital-based TB diagnosis is a critical opportunity to identify those at high risk of early and overall mortality. Interventions to diagnose TB before hospital admission, improve linkage to TB treatment following diagnosis, and reduce mortality in hospital-diagnosed TB patients should be prioritised.

Corticosteroids for COVID-19 Therapy: Potential Implications on Tuberculosis

On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization announced the Corona Virus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) as a global pandemic, which originated in China. At the host level, COVID-19, caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), affects the respiratory system, with the clinical symptoms ranging from mild to severe or critical illness that often requires hospitalization and oxygen support. There is no specific therapy for COVID-19, as is the case for any common viral disease except drugs to reduce the viral load and alleviate the inflammatory symptoms. Tuberculosis (TB), an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), also primarily affects the lungs and has clinical signs similar to pulmonary SARS-CoV-2 infection. Active TB is a leading killer among infectious diseases and adds to the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. In immunocompetent individuals, primary Mtb infection can also lead to a non-progressive, asymptomatic latency. However, latent Mtb infection (LTBI) can reactivate symptomatic TB disease upon host immune-suppressing conditions. Importantly, the diagnosis and treatment of TB are hampered and admixed with COVID-19 control measures. The US-Center for Disease Control (US-CDC) recommends using antiviral drugs, Remdesivir or corticosteroid (CST), such as dexamethasone either alone or in-combination with specific recommendations for COVID-19 patients requiring hospitalization or oxygen support. However, CSTs can cause immunosuppression, besides their anti-inflammatory properties. The altered host immunity during COVID-19, combined with CST therapy, poses a significant risk for new secondary infections and/or reactivation of existing quiescent infections, such as LTBI. This review highlights CST therapy recommendations for COVID-19, various types and mechanisms of action of CSTs, the deadly combination of two respiratory infectious diseases COVID-19 and TB. It also discusses the importance of screening for LTBI to prevent TB reactivation during corticosteroid therapy for COVID-19.

Treatment outcome of tuberculosis at Dilla Referral Hospital, Gedeo Zone, southern Ethiopia: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the major public health problems in Ethiopia. Determining treatment outcome of TB cases could help to understand the effectiveness of TB control efforts. The objective of this study was to assess TB treatment outcome and associated factors and determine the risk factors of death among TB cases who were on Directly Observed Treatment Short course (DOTS).

METHODOLOGY

We analyzed a retrospective data for TB cases who were on DOTS at Dilla Referral Hospital from July 2011- June 2016. The study population was TB cases with known HIV status and whose treatment outcome was evaluated at the Hospital. Data were entered, cleaned and analyzed using statistical package SPSS for windows, version 20.

RESULT

Out of 899 registered TB cases, 731 included in this analysis. Of these cases, 424 (58.0%) were male and 334 (45.7%) were in the age group of below 25 years. Treatment success rate of TB was 675 (92.3%) and death rate was 18 (2.5%). Treatment outcome showed statistically significant variation by HIV status (P < 0.001). HIV status of the TB cases and pretreatment weight were associated with TB treatment outcome. HIV status of the TB cases was associated with death of the TB cases (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) 5.0; CI 95%: 1.8-13.5).

CONCLUSION

TB treatment success rate found in this study was high. Patient's weight and HIV status were associated with treatment outcome. Moreover, HIV status predicted death of TB cases. Cautious treatment follow-up and defaulter tracing mechanisms for TB cases with these risk factors were suggested.

Case fatality and recurrent tuberculosis among patients managed in the private sector: A cohort study in Patna, India

BACKGROUND

A key component of the WHO End TB Strategy is quality of care, for which case fatality is a critical marker. Half of India's nearly 3 million TB patients are treated in the highly unregulated private sector, yet little is known about the outcomes of these patients. Using a retrospective cohort design, we estimated the case fatality ratio (CFR) and rate of recurrent TB among patients managed in the private healthcare sector in Patna, India.

METHODS

World Health Partners' Private Provider Interface Agencies (PPIA) pilot project in Patna has treated 89,906 private sector TB patients since 2013. A random sample of 4,000 patients treated from 2014 to 2016 were surveyed in 2018 for case fatality and recurrent TB. CFR is defined as the proportion of patients who die during the period of interest. Treatment CFRs, post-treatment CFRs and rates of recurrent TB were estimated. Predictors for fatality and recurrence were identified using Cox proportional hazards modelling. Survey non-response was adjusted for using inverse probability selection weighting.

RESULTS

The survey response rate was 56.0%. The weighted average follow-up times were 8.7 months in the treatment phase and 26.4 months in the post-treatment phase. Unobserved patients were more likely to have less than one month of treatment adherence (32.0% vs. 13.5%) and were more likely to live in rural Patna (21.9% vs. 15.0%). The adjusted treatment phase CFR was 7.27% (5.97%, 8.49%) and at 24 months post-treatment was 3.32% (2.36%, 4.42%). The adjusted 24 month post-treatment phase recurrent TB rate was 3.56% (2.54%, 4.79%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our cohort study provides critical estimates of TB patient outcomes in the Indian private sector, and accounts for selection bias. Patients in the private sector in Patna experienced a moderate treatment CFR but rates of recurrent TB and post-treatment fatality were low.

The potential impact of urine-LAM diagnostics on tuberculosis incidence and mortality: A modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Lateral flow urine lipoarabinomannan (LAM) tests could offer important new opportunities for the early detection of tuberculosis (TB). The currently licensed LAM test, Alere Determine TB LAM Ag ('LF-LAM'), performs best in the sickest people living with HIV (PLHIV). However, the technology continues to improve, with newer LAM tests, such as Fujifilm SILVAMP TB LAM ('SILVAMP-LAM') showing improved sensitivity, including amongst HIV-negative patients. It is important to anticipate the epidemiological impact that current and future LAM tests may have on TB incidence and mortality.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Concentrating on South Africa, we examined the impact that widening LAM test eligibility would have on TB incidence and mortality. We developed a mathematical model of TB transmission to project the impact of LAM tests, distinguishing 'current' tests (with sensitivity consistent with LF-LAM), from hypothetical 'future' tests (having sensitivity consistent with SILVAMP-LAM). We modelled the impact of both tests, assuming full adoption of the 2019 WHO guidelines for the use of these tests amongst those receiving HIV care. We also simulated the hypothetical deployment of future LAM tests for all people presenting to care with TB symptoms, not restricted to PLHIV. Our model projects that 2,700,000 (95% credible interval [CrI] 2,000,000-3,600,000) and 420,000 (95% CrI 350,000-520,000) cumulative TB incident cases and deaths, respectively, would occur between 2020 and 2035 if the status quo is maintained. Relative to this comparator, current and future LAM tests would respectively avert 54 (95% CrI 33-86) and 90 (95% CrI 55-145) TB deaths amongst inpatients between 2020 and 2035, i.e., reductions of 5% (95% CrI 4%-6%) and 9% (95% CrI 7%-11%) in inpatient TB mortality. This impact in absolute deaths averted doubles if testing is expanded to include outpatients, yet remains <1% of country-level TB deaths. Similar patterns apply to incidence results. However, deploying a future LAM test for all people presenting to care with TB symptoms would avert 470,000 (95% CrI 220,000-870,000) incident TB cases (18% reduction, 95% CrI 9%-29%) and 120,000 (95% CrI 69,000-210,000) deaths (30% reduction, 95% CrI 18%-44%) between 2020 and 2035. Notably, this increase in impact arises largely from diagnosis of TB amongst those with HIV who are not yet in HIV care, and who would thus be ineligible for a LAM test under current guidelines. Qualitatively similar results apply under an alternative comparator assuming expanded use of GeneXpert MTB/RIF ('Xpert') for TB diagnosis. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates qualitatively similar results in a setting like Kenya, which also has a generalised HIV epidemic, but a lower burden of HIV/TB coinfection. Amongst limitations of this analysis, we do not address the cost or cost-effectiveness of future tests. Our model neglects drug resistance and focuses on the country-level epidemic, thus ignoring subnational variations in HIV and TB burden.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that LAM tests could have an important effect in averting TB deaths amongst PLHIV with advanced disease. However, achieving population-level impact on the TB epidemic, even in high-HIV-burden settings, will require future LAM tests to have sufficient performance to be deployed more broadly than in HIV care.

Trends in the prevalence and incidence of orphanhood in children and adolescents <20 years in rural KwaZulu-Natal South Africa, 2000-2014

BACKGROUND

In South Africa, large increases in early adult mortality during the 1990s and early 2000s have reversed since public HIV treatment rollout in 2004. In a rural population in KwaZulu-Natal, we investigate trends in parental mortality and orphanhood from 2000-2014.

METHODS

Using longitudinal demographic surveillance data for a population of approximately 90,000, we calculated annual incidence and prevalence of maternal, paternal and double orphanhood in children and adolescents (<20 years) and, overall and cause-specific mortality of parents by age.

RESULTS

The proportion of children and adolescents (<20 years) for whom one or both parents had died rose from 26% in 2000 to peak at 36% in 2010, followed by a decline to 32% in 2014. The burden of orphanhood remains high especially in the oldest age group: in 2014, 53% of adolescents 15-19 years had experienced the death of one or both parents. In all age groups and years, paternal orphan prevalence was three-five times higher than maternal orphan prevalence. Maternal and paternal orphan incidence peaked in 2005 at 17 and 27 per 1,000 person years respectively (<20 years) before declining by half through 2014. The leading cause of parental death throughout the period, HIV/AIDS and TB cause-specific mortality rates declined substantially in mothers and fathers from 2007 and 2009 respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The survival of parents with children and adolescents <20 years has improved in tandem with earlier initiation and higher coverage of HIV treatment. However, comparatively high levels of parental deaths persist in this rural population in KwaZulu-Natal, particularly among fathers. Community-level surveillance to estimate levels of orphanhood remains important for monitoring and evaluation of targeted state welfare support for orphans and their guardians.

Estimating the effect of pretreatment loss to follow up on TB associated mortality at public health facilities in Uganda

INTRODUCTION

Tuberculosis (TB) mortality estimates derived only from cohorts of patients initiated on TB treatment do not consider outcomes of patients with pretreatment loss to follow-up (LFU). We aimed to assess the effect of pretreatment LFU on TB-associated mortality in the six months following TB diagnosis at public health facilities in Uganda.

METHODS

At ten public health facilities, we retrospectively reviewed treatment data for all patients with a positive Xpert®MTB/RIF test result from January to June 2018. Pretreatment LFU was defined as not initiating TB treatment within two weeks of a positive test. We traced patients with pretreatment LFU to ascertain their vital status. We performed Kaplan Meier survival analysis to compare the cumulative incidence of mortality, six months after diagnosis among patients who did and did not experience pretreatment LFU. We also determined the health facility level estimates of TB associated mortality before and after incorporating deaths prior to treatment initiation among patients who experienced pretreatment LFU.

RESULTS

Of 510 patients with positive test, 100 (19.6%) experienced pretreatment LFU. Of these, we ascertained the vital status of 49 patients. In the six months following TB diagnosis, mortality was higher among patients who experienced pretreatment LFU 48.1/1000py vs 22.9/1000py. Hazard ratio [HR] 3.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] (1.61-6.30). After incorporating deaths prior to treatment initation among patients who experienced pretreatment LFU, health facility level estimates of TB associated mortality increased from 8.4% (95% CI 6.1%-11.6%) to 10.2% (95% CI 7.7%-13.4%).

CONCLUSION

Patients with confirmed TB who experience pretreatment LFU have high mortality within the first six months. Efforts should be made to prioritise linkage to treatment for this group of patients. Deaths that occur prior to treatment initation should be included when reporting TB mortality in order to more accurately reflect the health impact of TB.

Tuberculosis and COVID-19 Co-infection: An Updated Review

Coronavirus disease (COVID 19) has involved millions of people all over the world. Tuberculosis (TB) continues to affect millions of people every year with high mortality. There is limited literature on the occurrence of COVID 19 in patients with TB. We reviewed the available data on various clinical details, management, and outcome among patients with COVID-19 and TB. 8 studies reported a total of 80 patients with this coinfection. These patients were reported from ten different countries, with Italy reporting the largest number of cases. Migrant, males constituted a major proportion of cases. Most reported patients were symptomatic. Fever, dry cough, and dyspnea were the most commonly reported symptoms. Bilateral ground glass opacities were more common in COVID 19 infection and cavitary lesions were more common in patients with TB. Most reported TB patients had been found to have mycobacterium tuberculosis from sputum culture in the background of pulmonary TB. Most patients of TB were treated with multidrug regimen antitubercular therapy. In all 8 studies, COVID 19 was treated as per the local protocol. Mortality was reported in more than 10% of patients. Mortality was higher in elderly patients (> 70 years) and amongst patient with multiple medical comorbidities.

Treatment outcomes of Nigerian patients with tuberculosis: A retrospective 25-year review in a regional medical center

Introduction

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a global health challenge and leading infectious killer worldwide. The need for continuous evaluation of TB treatment outcomes becomes more imperative in the midst of a global economic meltdown substantially impacting resource-limited-settings.

Methods

This study retrospectively reviewed 25-years of treatment outcomes in 3,384 patients who were managed for TB at a tertiary hospital in Nigeria. Confirmed TB cases were given directly observed therapy of a short-course treatment regimen and monitored for clinical response.

Results

Out of 1,146,560 patients screened, there were 24,330 (2.1%) presumptive and 3,384 (13.9%) confirmed TB cases. The patients’ mean age was 35.8 years (0.33–101 years). There were 1,902 (56.2%) male, 332(9.8%) pediatric, and 2,878 (85%) pulmonary TB cases.

The annual mean measured treatment outcomes were as follows: adherence, 91.4(±5.8) %; successful outcome, 75.3(±8.8) % potentially unsatisfactory outcome, 14.8(±7.2) %; and mortality 10.0(±3.6) %.

Female, extra-pulmonary TB (EPTB), newly diagnosed, and relapsed patients compliant with treatment had successful outcomes. Adulthood and HIV infection were mortality risk factors.

Conclusion

The mean annual successful treatment outcome is 75.3(±8.8) %. Female, pediatric, EPTB, new, and relapsed patients were predisposed to successful treatment outcomes. Lessons learned will guide future program modifications.

Factors associated with death in patients with tuberculosis in Brazil: Competing risks analysis

Objectives

This study aimed to analyze the factors associated with likely TB deaths, likely TB-related deaths and deaths from other causes. Understanding the factors associated with mortality could help the strategy to End TB, especially the goal of reducing TB deaths by 95% between 2015 and 2035.

Methods

A retrospective, population-based cohort study of the causes of death was performed using a competing risk model in patients receiving treatment for TB. Patients had started TB treatment in Brazil 2008–2013 with any death certificates dated in the same period. We used three categories of deaths, according to ICD-10 codes: i) probable TB deaths; ii) TB-related deaths; iii) deaths from other causes.

Results

In this cohort, 39,997 individuals (14.1%) died, out of a total of 283,508 individuals. Of these, 8,936 were probable TB deaths (22.4%) and 3,365 TB-related deaths (8.4%), illustrating high mortality rates. 27,696 deaths (69.2%) were from other causes. From our analysis, factors strongly associated with probable TB deaths were male gender (sHR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.26–1.40), age over 60 years (sHR = 9.29, 95% CI: 8.15–10.60), illiterate schooling (sHR = 2.33, 95% CI: 2.09–2.59), black (sHR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.26–1.40) and brown (sHR = 13, 95% CI: 1.07–1.19) color/race, from the Southern region (sHR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10–1.28), clinical mixed forms (sHR = 1.91, 95% CI: 1.73–2.11) and alcoholism (sHR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.81–2.00). Also, HIV positive serology was strongly associated with probable TB deaths (sHR = 62.78; 95% CI: 55.01–71.63).

Conclusions

In conclusion, specific strategies for active surveillance and early case detection can reduce mortality among patients with tuberculosis, leading to more timely detection and treatment.

Tuberculosis Transmission or Mortality Among Persons Living with HIV, USA, 2011-2016

BACKGROUND

Persons living with HIV are more likely to have tuberculosis (TB) disease attributed to recent transmission (RT) and to die during TB treatment than persons without HIV. We examined factors associated with RT or mortality among TB/HIV patients.

METHODS

Using National TB Surveillance System data from 2011 to 2016, we calculated multivariable adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with 99% confidence intervals (CI) to estimate associations between patient characteristics and RT or mortality. Mortality analyses were restricted to 2011-2014 to allow sufficient time for reporting outcomes.

RESULTS

TB disease was attributed to RT in 491 (20%) of 2415 TB/HIV patients. RT was more likely among those reporting homelessness (aOR, 2.6; CI, 2.0, 3.5) or substance use (aOR,1.6; CI, 1.2, 2.1) and among blacks (aOR,1.8; CI, 1.2, 2.8) and Hispanics (aOR, 1.8; CI, 1.1, 2.9); RT was less likely among non-US-born persons (aOR, 0.2; CI, 0.2, 0.3). The proportion who died during TB treatment was higher among persons with HIV than without (8.6% versus 5.2%; p < 0.0001). Among 2273 TB/HIV patients, 195 died during TB treatment. Age ≥ 65 years (aOR, 5.3; CI, 2.4, 11.6), 45-64 years (aOR, 2.2; CI, 1.4, 3.4), and having another medical risk factor for TB (aOR, 3.3; CI, 1.8, 6.2) were associated with death; directly observed treatment (DOT) for TB was protective (aOR, 0.5; CI, 0.2, 1.0).

CONCLUSIONS

Among TB/HIV patients, blacks, Hispanics, and those reporting homelessness or substance use should be prioritized for interventions that decrease TB transmission. Improved adherence to treatment through DOT was associated with decreased mortality, but additional interventions are needed to reduce mortality among older patients and those TB/HIV patients with another medical risk factor for TB.

Mortality and risk of tuberculosis among people living with HIV in whom TB was initially ruled out

Tuberculosis (TB) misdiagnosis remains a public health concern, especially among people living with HIV (PLHIV), given the high mortality associated with missed TB diagnoses. The main objective of this study was to describe the all-cause mortality, TB incidence rates and their associated risk factors in a cohort of PLHIV with presumptive TB in whom TB was initially ruled out. We retrospectively followed a cohort of PLHIV with presumptive TB over a 2 year-period in a rural district in Southern Mozambique. During the study period 382 PLHIV were followed-up. Mortality rate was 6.8/100 person-years (PYs) (95% CI 5.2-9.2) and TB incidence rate was 5.4/100 PYs (95% CI 3.9-7.5). Thirty-six percent of deaths and 43% of TB incident cases occurred in the first 12 months of the follow up. Mortality and TB incidence rates in the 2-year period after TB was initially ruled out was very high. The TB diagnostic work-up and linkage to HIV care should be strengthened to decrease TB burden and all-cause mortality among PLHIV with presumptive TB.

Association of Mortality and Years of Potential Life Lost With Active Tuberculosis in the United States

IMPORTANCE

Active tuberculosis (TB) disease leads to substantial mortality but is preventable through screening and treatment for latent TB infection. Early mortality after TB diagnosis (≤1 year) is well described, but delayed mortality (>1 year) among patients with active TB is poorly understood.

OBJECTIVE

To compare early and delayed mortality and years of potential life (YPL) lost among patients with active TB disease vs an age-, sex-, and year of diagnosis-matched comparison cohort without active TB disease.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective cohort study, conducted in the integrated health system of Kaiser Permanente Northern California, included patients with microbiologically confirmed active TB disease from January 1, 1997, to December 31, 2017, and a control cohort matched by age, sex, and year of diagnosis. Multivariable models were used to adjust for demographic and clinical characteristics. Patients with active TB disease prior to 1997 were excluded. Data were analyzed from January 1, 2019, to January 31, 2020.

EXPOSURE

Microbiologically confirmed TB disease.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Early (≤1 year after TB diagnosis) and delayed (>1 year after TB diagnosis) all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 2522 patients who had active TB from 1997 to 2017 were identified, with 17 166 person-years of follow-up. The comparison cohort included 100 880 persons with 735 726 person-years of follow-up. In the active TB and comparison cohorts, similar percentages of persons were male (56.3% vs 55.6%), aged 45 to 64 years (33.7% vs 33.7%), and aged 65 years or older (24.7% vs 24.7%). Both early mortality (7.0%) and delayed mortality (16.3%) were higher among patients with active TB disease compared with those without active TB disease (1.1% and 12.0%, respectively). Patients with active TB disease had a significantly higher risk for early (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 7.29; 95% CI, 6.08-8.73) and delayed (aHR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.61-1.98) mortality compared with the comparison cohort (P < .001). Active TB disease was associated with an adjusted -7.0 (95% CI, -8.4 to -5.5) YPL lost compared with the comparison cohort.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, patients with active TB disease had significantly higher early and delayed all-cause mortality when adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics. These findings suggest that TB prevention through screening and treatment of latent TB infection could reduce mortality and YPL lost due to active TB disease.

Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, due to cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which disruptions to services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries with high burdens of these diseases could lead to additional loss of life over the next 5 years.

METHODS

Assuming a basic reproduction number of 3·0, we constructed four scenarios for possible responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: no action, mitigation for 6 months, suppression for 2 months, or suppression for 1 year. We used established transmission models of HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria to estimate the additional impact on health that could be caused in selected settings, either due to COVID-19 interventions limiting activities, or due to the high demand on the health system due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

In high-burden settings, deaths due to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria over 5 years could increase by up to 10%, 20%, and 36%, respectively, compared with if there was no COVID-19 pandemic. The greatest impact on HIV was estimated to be from interruption to antiretroviral therapy, which could occur during a period of high health system demand. For tuberculosis, the greatest impact would be from reductions in timely diagnosis and treatment of new cases, which could result from any prolonged period of COVID-19 suppression interventions. The greatest impact on malaria burden could be as a result of interruption of planned net campaigns. These disruptions could lead to a loss of life-years over 5 years that is of the same order of magnitude as the direct impact from COVID-19 in places with a high burden of malaria and large HIV and tuberculosis epidemics.

INTERPRETATION

Maintaining the most critical prevention activities and health-care services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria could substantially reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK Department for International Development, and Medical Research Council.

Determine TB-LAM point-of-care tuberculosis assay predicts poor outcomes in outpatients during their first year of antiretroviral therapy in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Determine TB-LAM is the first point-of-care test (POC) for HIV-associated tuberculosis (TB) and rapidly identifies TB in those at high-risk for short-term mortality. While the relationship between urine-LAM and mortality has been previously described, the outcomes of those undergoing urine-LAM testing have largely been assessed during short follow-up periods within diagnostic accuracy studies. We therefore sought to assess the relationship between baseline urine-LAM results and subsequent hospitalization and mortality under real-world conditions among outpatients in the first year of ART.

METHODS

Consecutive, HIV-positive adults with a CD4 count < 100 cells/uL presenting for ART initiation were enrolled. TB diagnoses and outcomes (hospitalization, loss-to-follow and mortality) were recorded during the first year following enrolment. Baseline urine samples were retrospectively tested using the urine-LAM POC assay. Kaplan Meier survival curves were used to assess the cumulative probability of hospitalization or mortality in the first year of follow-up, according to urine-LAM status. Cox regression analyses were performed to determine independent predictors of hospitalization and mortality at  three months and one year of follow-up.

RESULTS

468 patients with a median CD4 count of 59 cells/uL were enrolled. There were 140 patients (29.9%) with newly diagnosed TB in the first year of follow-up of which 79 (56.4%) were microbiologically-confirmed. A total of 18% (n = 84) required hospital admission and 12.2% (n = 57) died within a year of study entry. 38 out of 468 (8.1%) patients retrospectively tested urine-LAM positive - including 19.0% of those with microbiologically-proven TB diagnoses (n = 15/79) and 23.0% (n = 14/61) of those with clinical-only TB diagnoses; 9 of 38 (23.7%) of patients retrospectively testing LAM positive were never diagnosed with TB under routine program conditions. Among all patients (n = 468) in the first year of follow-up, a positive urine-LAM result was strongly associated with all-cause hospitalization and mortality with a corresponding adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 3.7 (95%CI, 1.9-7.1) and 2.6 (95%, 1.2-5.7), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Systematic urine-LAM testing among ART-naïve HIV-positive outpatients with CD4 counts < 100 cells/uL detected TB cases that were missed under routine programme conditions and was highly predictive for subsequent hospitalization and mortality in the first year of ART.

Trends of tuberculosis case detection, mortality and co-infection with HIV in Ghana: A retrospective cohort study

Background

In an era of renewed commitment to accelerate the declines in Tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality, there is the need for National Tuberculosis Programmes (NTPs) to monitor trends in key indicators across a geographical location and to provide reliable data for direct measurement of TB incidence and mortality. In this context, we explored the trends of TB case detection, mortality and HIV co-infection, and examined the predictors of TB deaths in Ten districts of the Volta region of Ghana.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all TB cases registered from 2013 to 2017 in 10 districts of the Volta Region of Ghana. Case detection rate (CDR) was computed as the ratio of the number of new and relapse TB case notified to NTP to the number of estimated incident TB cases in a given year. Case fatality rates were estimated using data from 2012–2016 cohort of TB patients. Simple and multiple logistic regression were used to identify predictors of TB deaths with odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals estimated.

Results

Overall, there were 3,735 new and relapse TB patients who commenced anti-TB treatment during the period, representing the case detection rate of 40.1% with district variations. The CDR remained stable during the 5 years. Of the total cases, HIV status was documented for 3,144 (84.2%), among whom, 712 (22.6%) were HIV positive. The TB/HIV co-infection was more prevalent among children under 15 years of age (30.1%), males (30.6%), treatment after lost to follow-up patients (33.3%), and smear-negative pulmonary TB patients (29.1%). The prevalence of TB/HIV co-infection did not significantly change over the years. The overall case fatality rate was 13% (n = 486), with considerable variation among HIV-positives and HIV-negative TB patients (21.8% and 11% respectively) (p<0.001) and among districts. TB/HIV co-infection, sputum smear-negative pulmonary TB and district of anti-TB treatment predicted TB mortality.

Conclusion

TB case detection rate was low and remained stable during the study period, whereas co-infection with HIV and mortality rates were quite high, indicating the need for feasible strategies such as active case finding to improve case detection, and improved case management to reduce mortality.

Systematic or Test-Guided Treatment for Tuberculosis in HIV-Infected Adults

BACKGROUND

In regions with high burdens of tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), many HIV-infected adults begin antiretroviral therapy (ART) when they are already severely immunocompromised. Mortality after ART initiation is high in these patients, and tuberculosis and invasive bacterial diseases are common causes of death.

METHODS

We conducted a 48-week trial of empirical treatment for tuberculosis as compared with treatment guided by testing in HIV-infected adults who had not previously received ART and had CD4+ T-cell counts below 100 cells per cubic millimeter. Patients recruited in Ivory Coast, Uganda, Cambodia, and Vietnam were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to undergo screening (Xpert MTB/RIF test, urinary lipoarabinomannan test, and chest radiography) to determine whether treatment for tuberculosis should be started or to receive systematic empirical treatment with rifampin, isoniazid, ethambutol, and pyrazinamide daily for 2 months, followed by rifampin and isoniazid daily for 4 months. The primary end point was a composite of death from any cause or invasive bacterial disease within 24 weeks (primary analysis) or within 48 weeks after randomization.

RESULTS

A total of 522 patients in the systematic-treatment group and 525 in the guided-treatment group were included in the analyses. At week 24, the rate of death from any cause or invasive bacterial disease (calculated as the number of first events per 100 patient-years) was 19.4 with systematic treatment and 20.3 with guided treatment (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63 to 1.44). At week 48, the corresponding rates were 12.8 and 13.3 (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.67 to 1.40]). At week 24, the probability of tuberculosis was lower with systematic treatment than with guided treatment (3.0% vs. 17.9%; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.15; 95% CI, 0.09 to 0.26), but the probability of grade 3 or 4 drug-related adverse events was higher with systematic treatment (17.4% vs. 7.2%; adjusted hazard ratio 2.57; 95% CI, 1.75 to 3.78). Serious adverse events were more common with systematic treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Among severely immunosuppressed adults with HIV infection who had not previously received ART, systematic treatment for tuberculosis was not superior to test-guided treatment in reducing the rate of death or invasive bacterial disease over 24 or 48 weeks and was associated with more grade 3 or 4 adverse events. (Funded by the Agence Nationale de Recherches sur le Sida et les Hépatites Virales; STATIS ANRS 12290 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02057796.).

Characteristics and predictors for tuberculosis related mortality in Denmark from 2009 through 2014: A retrospective cohort study

Objectives

Mortality from tuberculosis (TB) has been declining since 2000, nevertheless there is still a significant number of patients who die before or during TB treatment. The aims were to examine and describe predictors associated with TB related mortality.

Methods

Patients notified with TB from 2009 though 2014 in Denmark were included. Data were extracted from national registers and patient records were examined for clinical information and treatment outcome. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine TB related mortality.

Results

A total of 2131 cases were identified, 141 (6.6%) patients died before or during TB treatment. TB related mortality accounted for 104 cases (73.8%) and decreased significantly from 6.7% to 3.2% (p = .04) during the study period. Within 1 months of diagnosis, 49% of TB related deaths had occurred. The strongest risk factors present at time of diagnosis, associated with TB related mortality, were: age > 70 years, Charlson comorbidity index > 1, alcohol abuse, weight loss, anemia, and C-reactive protein > 100 mg/L (p < .05).

Conclusion

The majority of TB related deaths occurred soon after diagnosis, emphasizing that TB patients identified to have a high risk of mortality should be closely monitored before and during the intensive treatment period to improve their outcomes.

Sex differences and HIV status of tuberculosis in adults at a rural hospital in southern Ethiopia: an 18-year retrospective cross-sectional study

Background

The aim of the study was to compare the epidemiology, clinical characteristics and treatment outcome of tuberculosis (TB), including HIV status, in women and men in southern rural Ethiopia.

Methods

We conducted a register-based retrospective cohort study covering the period from September 1998 to August 2015.

Result

We included records of 2252 registered TB patients: 1080 (48%) women and 1172 (52%) men. Median age was similar for women and men: 27.5 years and 25.0 years, respectively. Median weight in women was 43.0 kg (interquartile range IQR: 38.0, 49.0), significantly lower than in men (50.0 kg, IQR 44.0, 55.0; p = 0.01). Extrapulmonary TB was significantly more common in women than in men (34.1% versus 28.7%; p=0.006). Treatment outcomes were similar in both sexes: in 70.3% of women and 68.9% of men, TB mortality was slightly lower in women than men (4.7% vs. 6.5%; p=0.08). In patients with TB, female sex was independently associated with low weight (adjusted aOR: 0.91; 95% CI 0.90, 0.92), less mortality (aOR: 0.54; 95% CI 0.36, 0.81), and lymph node TB (aOR: 1.57; 95% CI 1.13, 2.19)

Conclusion

Lymph node TB was more common in women. Treatment outcomes were similar in both sexes, but women had a lower mortality rate.

Tuberculosis treatment outcomes among prisoners and general population in Zomba, Malawi

BACKGROUND

TB remains a major global health problem. It is particularly prevalent in prisons in sub-Saharan Africa due to overcrowding, malnutrition, high HIV prevalence and insufficient medical services. Prisoners have experienced worse TB treatment outcomes than the general population. The researchers investigated the TB treatment outcomes and predictors of unsuccessful treatment outcomesamong prisoners and the general population in Zomba, Malawi.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed TB registers of prisoners and the general population diagnosed with TB from January 2011 to December 2016 at Zomba Maximum Central Prison and Zomba Central Hospital, Malawi. The study used routinely collected data extracted from national, standardized TB treatment monitoring tools. Successful treatment outcome was classified as the total for cured and completed treatment while unsuccessful treatment outcome was classified as the total of deaths and treatment failures. We used descriptive statistics to compare the demographics and TB treatment parameters among prisoners and non - prisoners and computed multivariate analysis to predict the independent factors of unsuccessful treatment outcomes.

RESULTS

Of 1652 registered cases, 27% were prisoners (all males) and 72% were non-prisoners (58% males). The median age was 35 years (IQR: 29-42); 76% were Pulmonary TB cases (78% among prisoners vs 75% among general population); 83% were new TB cases (77% among prisoners vs 86% among general population); and 65% were HIV positive (50% among prisoners vs 71% among general population). Regarding treatment outcome, 1472 (89%) were cured and/or completed treatment (93% among prisoners vs 88% among general population), 2(0.2%) were treatment failures, 122 (8%) died (5% among prisoners vs 8% among general population) and 55 (3%) were not evaluated (1% among prisoners vs 4% among general population). Unsuccessful TB treatment outcomes were associated with age greater than 35 years (aOR = 0.68: 95% C.I: 0.58-0.80), Extra-Pulmonary TB (aOR = 1.69: 95% C.I: 1.08-2.63) andHIV positive status (aOR = 0.63: 95% C.I: 0.42-0.94).

CONCLUSION

Maximum prisons provide a stable population that can be easily monitored throughout the course of TB treatment. Good TB treatment outcomes which are comparable to the general population can be achieved among Malawian prisoners despite the challenging prison conditions.

Tuberculosis in Siena: evolution of the disease and its treatment, from the Unification of Italy to the 1930s

Between the end of the nineteenth century and the first half of the twentieth century, the city of Siena experienced elevated tuberculosis-related morbidity and mortality, to the point that on January 1, 1929 the newspaper La Nazione wrote that "Siena ranks second in the official Tuberculosis (TB) incidence rate". The author presents statistical data relating to a time span ranging from 1898 to 1935, interpreting them in light of social and sanitary conditions found in the city. The result is an exhaustive picture of the most important actions implemented at city level to prevent tuberculosis and to assist and treat the sick, such as: the creation of seaside hospices conceived by Carlo Livi for children suffering from scrofula, as well as centers committed to the prevention of childhood poverty and malnutrition; the realization of activities in the green areas of the ramparts of the Fortress, upon recommendation by the great hygienist Achille Sclavo; the establishment of a Preventorium on the premises of the Monastery of Santa Maria Maddalena to accommodate children from families that included pulmonary tuberculosis patients, and countless activities carried out by the Anti-TB Dispensary. Of particular interest is the identification of the main cause of high TB incidence in the unhealthy houses located in some areas of Siena's district, which, in 1930 engendered a lively debate hinging upon the notion of building restoration.

Determinants of unsuccessful treatment outcomes and mortality among tuberculosis patients in Malaysia: A registry-based cohort study

Introduction

The monitoring of tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes and examination of the factors affecting these outcomes are important for evaluation and feedback of the national TB control program. This study aims to assess the TB treatment outcomes among patients registered in the national TB surveillance database in Malaysia from 2014 until 2017 and identify factors associated with unsuccessful treatment outcomes and all-cause mortality.

Materials and methods

Using registry-based secondary data, a retrospective cohort study was conducted. TB patients’ sociodemographic characteristics, clinical disease data and treatment outcomes at one-year surveillance were extracted from the database and analyzed. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine factors associated with unsuccessful treatment outcomes and all-cause mortality.

Results

A total of 97,505 TB cases (64.3% males) were included in this study. TB treatment success (cases categorized as cured and completed treatment) was observed in 80.7% of the patients. Among the 19.3% patients with unsuccessful treatment outcomes, 10.2% died, 5.3% were lost to follow-up, 3.6% had outcomes not evaluated while the remaining failed treatment. Unsuccessful TB treatment outcomes were found to be associated with older age, males, foreign nationality, urban dwellers, lower education levels, passive detection of TB cases, absence of bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) scar, underlying diabetes mellitus, smoking, extrapulmonary TB, history of previous TB treatment, advanced chest radiography findings and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Factors found associated with all-cause mortality were similar except for nationality (higher among Malaysians) and place of residence (higher among rural dwellers), while smoking and history of previous TB treatment were not found to be associated with all-cause mortality.

Conclusions

This study identified various sociodemographic characteristics and TB disease-related variables which were associated with unsuccessful TB treatment outcomes and mortality; these can be used to guide measures for risk assessment and stratification of TB patients in future.