Strategies for combating avian influenza in the Asia-Pacific

Avian influenza viruses have potentially significant impacts for both human and animal populations. Coordination between the human, animal and environmental health sectors on surveillance, information sharing, response and risk reduction are critical to quickly identify and respond to the next emerging threat.

Prioritization of risk groups for influenza vaccination in resource limited settings - A case study from South Africa

BACKGROUND

Due to competing health priorities, low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) may need to prioritize between different influenza vaccine risk groups. Risk group prioritization may differ in LMIC based upon programmatic feasibility, country-specific prevalence of risk conditions and influenza-associated morbidity and mortality.

METHODS

In South Africa, we collected local disease burden data (both published and unpublished) and published vaccine efficacy data in risk groups and healthy adults. We used these data to aid policy makers with risk group prioritization for influenza vaccination. We used the following formula to assess potential vaccine averted disease in each risk group: rate of influenza-associated hospitalization (or death) per 100,000 population * influenza vaccine efficacy (VE). We further estimated the cost per hospital day averted and the cost per year of life saved by influenza vaccination.

RESULTS

Pregnant women, HIV-infected adults, and adults and children with tuberculosis disease had among the highest estimates of hospitalizations averted per 100,000 vaccinated and adults aged 65 years and older had the highest estimated deaths averted per 100,000 vaccinated. However, when assessing both the cost per hospital day averted (range: USD148-1,344) and the cost per year of life saved (range: USD112-1,230); adults and children with TB disease, HIV-infected adults and pregnant women had the lowest cost per outcome averted.

DISCUSSION

An assessment of the potential disease outcomes averted and associated costs may aid policymakers in risk group prioritization for influenza vaccination.

Timing of respiratory syncytial virus and influenza epidemic activity in five regions of Argentina, 2007-2016

Background

Within‐country differences in the timing of RSV and influenza epidemics have not been assessed in Argentina, the eighth largest country in the world by area.

Objective

We aimed to compare seasonality for RSV and influenza both nationally and in each of the five regions to inform Argentina’s prevention and treatment guidelines.

Method

The Argentine National Laboratories and Health Institutes Administration collected respiratory specimens from clinical practices, outbreak investigations, and respiratory virus surveillance in 2007‐2016; these were tested using immunofluorescence or RT‐PCR techniques. We calculated weekly percent positive (PP) and defined season onset as >2 consecutive weeks when PP exceeded the annual mean for the respective year and region. Median season measures (onset, offset and peak) and the established mean method were calculated for each virus.

Results

An annual median 59 396 specimens were tested for RSV and 60 931 for influenza; 21–29% tested positive for RSV and 2–7% for influenza. National RSV activity began in April; region‐specific start weeks varied by 7 weeks. Duration of RSV activity did not vary widely by region (16–18 weeks in duration). National influenza activity started in June; region‐specific start weeks varied by 3 weeks. Duration of influenza epidemic activity varied more by region than that of RSV (7–13 weeks in duration).

Conclusion

In Argentina, RSV and influenza activity overlapped during the winter months. RSV season tended to begin prior to the influenza season, and showed more variation in start week by region. Influenza seasons tended to vary more in duration than RSV seasons.

Study of Healthcare Personnel with Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses in Israel (SHIRI): study protocol

Background

The Study of Healthcare Personnel with Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses in Israel (SHIRI) prospectively follows a cohort of healthcare personnel (HCP) in two hospitals in Israel. SHIRI will describe the frequency of influenza virus infections among HCP, identify predictors of vaccine acceptance, examine how repeated influenza vaccination may modify immunogenicity, and evaluate influenza vaccine effectiveness in preventing influenza illness and missed work.

Methods

Cohort enrollment began in October, 2016; a second year of the study and a second wave of cohort enrollment began in June 2017. The study will run for at least 3 years and will follow approximately 2000 HCP (who are both employees and members of Clalit Health Services [CHS]) with routine direct patient contact. Eligible HCP are recruited using a stratified sampling strategy. After informed consent, participants complete a brief enrollment survey with questions about occupational responsibilities and knowledge, attitudes, and practices about influenza vaccines. Blood samples are collected at enrollment and at the end of influenza season; HCP who choose to be vaccinated contribute additional blood one month after vaccination. During the influenza season, participants receive twice-weekly short message service (SMS) messages asking them if they have acute respiratory illness or febrile illness (ARFI) symptoms. Ill participants receive follow-up SMS messages to confirm illness symptoms and duration and are asked to self-collect a nasal swab. Information on socio-economic characteristics, current and past medical conditions, medical care utilization and vaccination history is extracted from the CHS database. Information about missed work due to illness is obtained by self-report and from employee records. Respiratory specimens from self-collected nasal swabs are tested for influenza A and B viruses, respiratory syncytial virus, human metapneumovirus, and coronaviruses using validated multiplex quantitative real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assays. The hemagglutination inhibition assay will be used to detect the presence of neutralizing influenza antibodies in serum.

Discussion

SHIRI will expand our knowledge of the burden of respiratory viral infections among HCP and the effectiveness of current and repeated annual influenza vaccination in preventing influenza illness, medical utilization, and missed workdays among HCP who are in direct contact with patients.

Trial registration

NCT03331991. Registered on November 6, 2017.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-018-3444-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Update: Influenza Activity - United States and Worldwide, May 20-October 13, 2018

During May 20-October 13, 2018,* low levels of influenza activity were reported in the United States, with a mix of influenza A and B viruses circulating. Seasonal influenza activity in the Southern Hemisphere was low overall, with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 predominating in many regions. Antigenic testing of available influenza A and B viruses indicated that no significant antigenic drift in circulating viruses had emerged. In late September, the components for the 2019 Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine were selected and included an incremental update to the A(H3N2) vaccine virus used in egg-based vaccine manufacturing; no change was recommended for the A(H3N2) component of cell-manufactured or recombinant influenza vaccines. Annual influenza vaccination is the best method for preventing influenza illness and its complications, and all persons aged ≥6 months who do not have contraindications should receive influenza vaccine, preferably before the onset of influenza circulation in their community, which often begins in October and peaks during December-February. Health care providers should offer vaccination by the end of October and should continue to recommend and administer influenza vaccine to previously unvaccinated patients throughout the 2018-19 influenza season (1). In addition, during May 20-October 13, a small number of nonhuman influenza "variant" virus infections^† were reported in the United States; most were associated with exposure to swine. Although limited human-to-human transmission might have occurred in one instance, no ongoing community transmission was identified. Vulnerable populations, especially young children and other persons at high risk for serious influenza complications, should avoid swine barns at agricultural fairs, or close contact with swine.^§.

The burden of influenza-associated respiratory hospitalizations in Bhutan, 2015-2016

BACKGROUND

Influenza burden estimates help provide evidence to support influenza prevention and control programs. In this study, we estimated influenza-associated respiratory hospitalization rates in Bhutan, a country considering influenza vaccine introduction.

METHODS

Using real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction laboratory results from severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) surveillance, we estimated the proportion of respiratory hospitalizations attributable to influenza each month among patients aged <5, 5-49, and ≥50 years in six Bhutanese districts for 2015 and 2016. We divided the sum of the monthly influenza-attributed hospitalizations by the total of the six district populations to generate age-specific rates for each year.

RESULTS

In 2015, 10% of SARI patients tested positive for influenza (64/659) and 18% tested positive (129/736) in 2016. The incidence of influenza-associated hospitalizations among all age groups was 50/100 000 persons (95% confidence interval [CI]: 45-55) in 2015 and 118/100 000 persons (95% CI: 110-127) in 2016. The highest rates were among children <5 years: 182/100 000 (95% CI: 153-210) in 2015 and 532/100 000 (95% CI: 473-591) in 2016. The second highest influenza-associated hospitalization rates were among adults ≥50 years: 110/100 000 (95% CI: 91-130) in 2015 and 193/100 000 (95% CI: 165-221) in 2016.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza viruses were associated with a substantial burden of severe illness requiring hospitalization especially among children and older adults. These findings can be used to understand the potential impact of seasonal influenza vaccination in these age groups.

The Pregnancy and Influenza Multinational Epidemiologic (PRIME) study: a prospective cohort study of the impact of influenza during pregnancy among women in middle-income countries

Background

The World Health Organization identifies pregnant women as at high-risk for severe influenza, but influenza vaccines are underutilized among pregnant women. Data on influenza burden during pregnancy are largely limited to high-income countries and data on the impact of influenza on birth and perinatal outcomes are scarce.

Methods/design

This prospective, longitudinal cohort study of pregnant women in middle-income countries is designed to address three primary objectives: 1) to evaluate the effect of laboratory-confirmed influenza during pregnancy on pregnancy and perinatal outcomes; 2) to estimate the incidences of all-cause acute respiratory illness and laboratory-confirmed influenza during pregnancy; and 3) to examine the clinical spectrum of illness associated with influenza viruses. Through a multi-country network approach, three sites aim to enroll cohorts of 1500–3000 pregnant women just before local influenza seasons. Women aged ≥ 18 years with expected delivery dates ≥ 8 weeks after the start of the influenza season are eligible. Women are followed throughout pregnancy through twice weekly surveillance for influenza symptoms (≥ 1 of myalgia, cough, runny nose, sore throat, or difficulty breathing) and have mid-turbinate nasal swabs collected for influenza virus testing during illness episodes. Primary outcomes include relative risk of preterm birth and mean birth weight among term singleton infants of women with and without reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction-confirmed influenza during pregnancy. Gestational age is determined by ultrasound at < 28 weeks gestation and birth weight is measured by digital scales using standardized methods. Sites are primarily urban in Bangkok, Thailand; Lima, Peru; and Nagpur, India. All sites recruit from antenatal clinics at referral hospitals and conduct surveillance using telephone calls, messaging applications, or home visits. Nasal swabs are self-collected by participants in Thailand and by study staff in Peru and India. During the first year (2017), sites enrolled participants during March–May in Peru and May–July in India and Thailand; 4779 women were enrolled.

Discussion

This study aims to generate evidence of the impact of influenza during pregnancy to inform decisions by Ministries of Health, healthcare providers, and pregnant women in middle-income countries about the value of influenza vaccination during pregnancy.

Effectiveness of an educational intervention to improve antibiotic dispensing practices for acute respiratory illness among drug sellers in pharmacies, a pilot study in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Inappropriate dispensing of antibiotics for acute respiratory illness (ARI) is common among drug sellers in Bangladesh. In this study, we evaluated the impact of an educational intervention to promote guidelines for better ARI management among drug sellers.

METHODS

From June 2012 to December 2013, we conducted baseline and post-intervention surveys on dispensing practices in 100 pharmacies within Dhaka city. In these surveys, drug sellers participated in 6 standardized role-playing scenarios led by study staffs acting as caregivers of ARI patients and drug sellers were blinded to these surveys. After the baseline survey, we developed ARI guidelines and facilitated a one-day educational intervention about ARI management for drug sellers. Our guidelines only recommended antibiotics for children with complicated ARI. Finally, we conducted the six month post-intervention survey using the same scenarios to record changes in drug dispensing practices.

RESULTS

Only 2/3 of participating pharmacies were licensed and few (11%) of drug sellers had pharmacy training. All the drug sellers were male, had a median age of 34 years (IQR 28-41). For children, dispensing of antibiotics for uncomplicated ARI decreased (30% baseline vs. 21% post-intervention; p = 0.04), but drug sellers were equally likely to dispense antibiotics for complicated ARI (15% baseline vs. 17% post-intervention; p = 0.6) and referrals to physicians for complicated ARIs decreased (70% baseline vs. 58% post-intervention; p = 0.03). For adults, antibiotic dispensing remained similar for uncomplicated ARI (48% baseline vs. 40% post-intervention; p = 0.1) but increased among those with complicated ARI (44% baseline vs. 78% post-intervention; p < 0.001). Although our evidence-based guidelines recommended against prescribing antihistamines for children, drug sellers continued to sell similar amounts for uncomplicated ARI (33% baseline vs. 32% post-intervention; p = 0.9).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the intervention, drug sellers continued to frequently dispense antibiotics for ARI, except for children with uncomplicated ARI. Pairing educational interventions among drug sellers with raising awareness about proper antibiotic use among general population should be further explored. In addition, annual licensing and an reaccreditation system with comprehensive monitoring should be enforced, using penalties for non-compliant pharmacies as possible incentives for appropriate dispensing practices.

Where backyard poultry raisers seek care for sick poultry: implications for avian influenza prevention in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

In Bangladesh, backyard poultry raisers lack awareness of avian influenza and infrequently follow government recommendations for its prevention. Identifying where poultry raisers seek care for their ill poultry might help the government better plan how to disseminate avian influenza prevention and control recommendations.

METHODS

In order to identify where backyard poultry raisers seek care for their ill poultry, we conducted in-depth and informal interviews: 70 with backyard poultry raisers and six with local poultry healthcare providers in two villages, and five with government veterinary professionals at the sub-district and union levels in two districts during June-August 2009.

RESULTS

Most (86% [60/70]) raisers sought care for their backyard poultry locally, 14% used home remedies only and none sought care from government veterinary professionals. The local poultry care providers provided advice and medications (n = 6). Four local care providers had shops in the village market where raisers sought healthcare for their poultry and the remaining two visited rural households to provide poultry healthcare services. Five of the six local care providers did not have formal training in veterinary medicine. Local care providers either did not know about avian influenza or considered avian influenza to be a disease common among commercial but not backyard poultry. The government professionals had degrees in veterinary medicine and experience with avian influenza and its prevention. They had their offices at the sub-district or union level and lacked staffing to reach the backyard raisers at the village level.

CONCLUSIONS

The local poultry care providers provided front line healthcare to backyard poultry in villages and were a potential source of information for the rural raisers. Integration of these local poultry care providers in the government's avian influenza control programs is a potentially useful approach to increase poultry raisers' and local poultry care providers' awareness about avian influenza.

Seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations - Latin America, 2013

BACKGROUND

Despite widespread utilization of influenza vaccines, effectiveness (VE) has not been routinely measured in Latin America.

METHODS

We used a case test-negative control design to estimate trivalent inactivated influenza VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza among hospitalized children aged 6months-5years and adults aged ≥60years which are age-groups targeted for vaccination. We sought persons with severe acute respiratory infections (SARI), hospitalized at 71 sentinel hospitals in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, and Paraguay during January-December 2013. Cases had an influenza virus infection confirmed by real-time reverse transcription PCR (rRT-PCR); controls had a negative rRT-PCR result for influenza viruses. We used a two-stage random effects model to estimate pooled VE per target age-group, adjusting for the month of illness onset, age and preexisting medical conditions.

RESULTS

We identified 2620 SARI patients across sites: 246 influenza cases and 720 influenza-negative controls aged ≤5years and 448 cases and 1206 controls aged ≥60years. The most commonly identified subtype among participants (48%) was the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus followed by influenza A(H3N2) (34%) and influenza B (18%) viruses. Among children, the adjusted VE of full vaccination (one dose for previously vaccinated or two if vaccine naïve) against any influenza virus SARI was 47% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 14-71%); VE was 58% (95% CI: 16-79%) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, and 65% (95% CI: -9; 89%) against influenza A(H3N2) viruses associated SARI. Crude VE of full vaccination against influenza B viruses associated SARI among children was 3% (95% CI: -150; 63). Among adults aged ≥60years, adjusted VE against any influenza SARI was 48% (95% CI: 34-60%); VE was 54% (95% CI: 37-69%) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 43% (95% CI: 18-61%) against influenza A(H3N2) and 34% (95% CI: -4; 58%) against B viruses associated SARI.

CONCLUSION

Influenza vaccine provided moderate protection against severe influenza illness among fully vaccinated young children and older adults, supporting current vaccination strategies.

Costs of hospitalization with respiratory syncytial virus illness among children aged <5 years and the financial impact on households in Bangladesh, 2010

Background

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of acute respiratory illness in young children and results in significant economic burden. There is no vaccine to prevent RSV illness but a number of vaccines are in development. We conducted this study to estimate the costs of severe RSV illness requiring hospitalization among children <5 years and associated financial impact on households in Bangladesh. Data of this study could be useful for RSV vaccine development and also the value of various preventive strategies, including use of an RSV vaccine in children if one becomes available.

Methods

From May through October 2010, children aged <5 years with laboratory–confirmed RSV were identified from a sentinel influenza program database at four tertiary hospitals. Research assistants visited case–patients’ homes after hospital discharge and administered a structured questionnaire to record direct medical costs (physician consultation fee, costs for hospital bed, medicines and diagnostic tests); non–medical costs (costs for food, lodging and transportation); indirect costs (caregivers’ productivity loss), and coping strategies used by families to pay for treatment. We used WHO–Choice estimates for routine health care service costs. We added direct, indirect and health care service costs to calculate cost–per–episode of severe RSV illness. We used Monte Carlo simulation to estimate annual economic burden for severe RSV illness.

Findings

We interviewed caregivers of 39 persons hospitalized for RSV illness. The median direct cost for hospitalization was US$ 62 (interquartile range [IQR] = 43–101), indirect cost was US$ 19 (IQR = 11–29) and total cost was US$ 94 (IQR = 67–127). The median out–of–pocket cost was 24% of monthly household income of affected families (US$ 143), and >50% families borrowed money to meet treatment cost. We estimated that the median direct cost of RSV–associated hospitalization in children aged <5 years in Bangladesh was US$ 10 million (IQR: US$ 7–16 million), the median indirect cost was US$ 3.0 million (IQR: 2–5 million) in 2010.

Conclusion

RSV–associated hospitalization among children aged <5 years represents a substantial economic burden in Bangladesh. Affected families frequently incurred considerable out of pocket and indirect costs for treatment that resulted in financial hardship.

Burden of Influenza in 4 Ecologically Distinct Regions of Peru: Household Active Surveillance of a Community Cohort, 2009-2015

BACKGROUND

There are limited data on the burden of disease posed by influenza in low- and middle-income countries. Furthermore, most estimates of influenza disease burden worldwide rely on passive sentinel surveillance at health clinics and hospitals that lack accurate population denominators.

METHODS

We documented influenza incidence, seasonality, health-system utilization with influenza illness, and vaccination coverage through active community-based surveillance in 4 ecologically distinct regions of Peru over 6 years. Approximately 7200 people in 1500 randomly selected households were visited 3 times per week. Naso- and oropharyngeal swabs were collected from persons with influenza-like illness and tested for influenza virus by real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction.

RESULTS

We followed participants for 35353 person-years (PY). The overall incidence of influenza was 100 per 1000 PY (95% confidence interval [CI], 97-104) and was highest in children aged 2-4 years (256/1000 PY [95% CI, 236-277]). Seasonal incidence trends were similar across sites, with 61% of annual influenza cases occurring during the austral winter (May-September). Of all participants, 44 per 1000 PY (95% CI, 42-46) sought medical care, 0.7 per 1000 PY (95% CI, 0.4-1.0) were hospitalized, and 1 person died (2.8/100000 PY). Influenza vaccine coverage was 27% among children aged 6-23 months and 26% among persons aged ≥65 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that 1 in 10 persons develops influenza each year in Peru, with the highest incidence in young children. Active community-based surveillance allows for a better understanding of the true burden and seasonality of disease that is essential to plan the optimal target groups, timing, and cost of national influenza vaccination programs.

Mild Respiratory Illness Among Young Children Caused by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Virus Infection in Dhaka, Bangladesh, 2011

Background

In March 2011, a multidisciplinary team investigated 2 human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection, detected through population-based active surveillance for influenza in Bangladesh, to assess transmission and contain further spread.

Methods

We collected clinical and exposure history of the case patients and monitored persons coming within 1 m of a case patient during their infectious period. Nasopharyngeal wash specimens from case patients and contacts were tested with real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction, and virus culture and isolates were characterized. Serum samples were tested with microneutralization and hemagglutination inhibition assays. We tested poultry, wild bird, and environmental samples from case patient households and surrounding areas for influenza viruses.

Results

Two previously healthy case patients, aged 13 and 31 months, had influenzalike illness and fully recovered. They had contact with poultry 7 and 10 days before illness onset, respectively. None of their 57 contacts were subsequently ill. Clade 2.2.2.1 highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 viruses were isolated from the case patients and from chicken fecal samples collected at the live bird markets near the patients' dwellings.

Conclusion

Identification of H5N1 cases through population-based surveillance suggests possible additional undetected cases throughout Bangladesh and highlights the importance of surveillance for mild respiratory illness among populations frequently exposed to infected poultry.

Global, regional, and national disease burden estimates of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children in 2015: a systematic review and modelling study

BACKGROUND

We have previously estimated that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was associated with 22% of all episodes of (severe) acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) resulting in 55 000 to 199 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2005. In the past 5 years, major research activity on RSV has yielded substantial new data from developing countries. With a considerably expanded dataset from a large international collaboration, we aimed to estimate the global incidence, hospital admission rate, and mortality from RSV-ALRI episodes in young children in 2015.

METHODS

We estimated the incidence and hospital admission rate of RSV-associated ALRI (RSV-ALRI) in children younger than 5 years stratified by age and World Bank income regions from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2016, and unpublished data from 76 high quality population-based studies. We estimated the RSV-ALRI incidence for 132 developing countries using a risk factor-based model and 2015 population estimates. We estimated the in-hospital RSV-ALRI mortality by combining in-hospital case fatality ratios with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based (published and unpublished) studies. We also estimated overall RSV-ALRI mortality by identifying studies reporting monthly data for ALRI mortality in the community and RSV activity.

FINDINGS

We estimated that globally in 2015, 33·1 million (uncertainty range [UR] 21·6-50·3) episodes of RSV-ALRI, resulted in about 3·2 million (2·7-3·8) hospital admissions, and 59 600 (48 000-74 500) in-hospital deaths in children younger than 5 years. In children younger than 6 months, 1·4 million (UR 1·2-1·7) hospital admissions, and 27 300 (UR 20 700-36 200) in-hospital deaths were due to RSV-ALRI. We also estimated that the overall RSV-ALRI mortality could be as high as 118 200 (UR 94 600-149 400). Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any given population.

INTERPRETATION

Globally, RSV is a common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of hospital admissions in young children, resulting in a substantial burden on health-care services. About 45% of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to RSV-ALRI occur in children younger than 6 months. An effective maternal RSV vaccine or monoclonal antibody could have a substantial effect on disease burden in this age group.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus in infants study (IRIS) of hospitalized and non-ill infants aged <1 year in four countries: study design and methods

Background

This multi-country prospective study of infants aged <1 year aims to assess the frequency of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections associated with hospitalizations, to describe clinical features and antibody response to infection, and to examine predictors of very severe disease requiring intensive care.

Methods/Design

We are enrolling a hospital-based cohort and a sample of non-ill infants in four countries (Albania, Jordan, Nicaragua, and the Philippines) using a common protocol. We are currently starting year 2 of a 2- to 3-year study and will enroll approximately 3,000 infants hospitalized for any acute illness (respiratory or non-respiratory) during periods of local influenza and/or RSV circulation. After informed consent and within 24 h of admission, we collect blood and respiratory specimens and conduct an interview to assess socio-demographic characteristics, medical history, and symptoms of acute illness (onset ≤10 days). Vital signs, interventions, and medications are documented daily through medical record abstraction. A follow-up health assessment and collection of convalescent blood occurs 3-5 weeks after enrollment. Influenza and RSV infection is confirmed by singleplex real time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) assays. Serologic conversion will be assessed comparing acute and convalescent sera using hemagglutination inhibition assay for influenza antibodies and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for RSV. Concurrent with hospital-based enrollment, respiratory specimens are also being collected (and tested by rRT-PCR) from approximately 1,400 non-ill infants aged <1 year during routine medical or preventive care.

Discussion

The Influenza and RSV in Infants Study (IRIS) promises to expand our knowledge of the frequency, clinical features, and antibody profiles of serious influenza and RSV disease among infants aged <1 year, quantify the proportion of infections that may be missed by traditional surveillance, and inform decisions about the potential value of existing and new vaccines and other prevention and treatment strategies.

Factors driving customers to seek health care from pharmacies for acute respiratory illness and treatment recommendations from drug sellers in Dhaka city, Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Pharmacies in Bangladesh serve as an important source of health service. A survey in Dhaka reported that 48% of respondents with symptoms of acute respiratory illness (ARI) identified local pharmacies as their first point of care. This study explores the factors driving urban customers to seek health care from pharmacies for ARI, their treatment adherence, and outcome.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted among 100 selected pharmacies within Dhaka from June to December 2012. Study participants were patients or patients' relatives aged >18 years seeking care for ARI from pharmacies without prescription. Structured interviews were conducted with customers after they sought health service from drug sellers and again over phone 5 days postinterview to discuss treatment adherence and outcome.

RESULTS

We interviewed 302 customers patronizing 76 pharmacies; 186 (62%) sought care for themselves and 116 (38%) sought care for a sick relative. Most customers (215; 71%) were males. The majority (90%) of customers sought care from the study pharmacy as their first point of care, while 18 (6%) had previously sought care from another pharmacy and 11 (4%) from a physician for their illness episodes. The most frequently reported reasons for seeking care from pharmacies were ease of access to pharmacies (86%), lower cost (46%), availability of medicine (33%), knowing the drug seller (20%), and convenient hours of operation (19%). The most commonly recommended drugs were acetaminophen dispensed in 76% (228) of visits, antihistamine in 69% (208), and antibiotics in 42% (126). On follow-up, most (86%) of the customers had recovered and 12% had sought further treatment.

CONCLUSION

People with ARI preferred to seek care at pharmacies rather than clinics because these pharmacies were more accessible and provided prompt treatment and medicine with no service charge. We recommend raising awareness among drug sellers on proper dispensing practices and enforcement of laws and regulations for drug sales.

Evaluating Hospital-Based Surveillance for Outbreak Detection in Bangladesh: Analysis of Healthcare Utilization Data

BACKGROUND

The International Health Regulations outline core requirements to ensure the detection of public health threats of international concern. Assessing the capacity of surveillance systems to detect these threats is crucial for evaluating a country's ability to meet these requirements.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We propose a framework to evaluate the sensitivity and representativeness of hospital-based surveillance and apply it to severe neurological infectious diseases and fatal respiratory infectious diseases in Bangladesh. We identified cases in selected communities within surveillance hospital catchment areas using key informant and house-to-house surveys and ascertained where cases had sought care. We estimated the probability of surveillance detecting different sized outbreaks by distance from the surveillance hospital and compared characteristics of cases identified in the community and cases attending surveillance hospitals. We estimated that surveillance detected 26% (95% CI 18%-33%) of severe neurological disease cases and 18% (95% CI 16%-21%) of fatal respiratory disease cases residing at 10 km distance from a surveillance hospital. Detection probabilities decreased markedly with distance. The probability of detecting small outbreaks (three cases) dropped below 50% at distances greater than 26 km for severe neurological disease and at distances greater than 7 km for fatal respiratory disease. Characteristics of cases attending surveillance hospitals were largely representative of all cases; however, neurological disease cases aged <5 y or from the lowest socioeconomic group and fatal respiratory disease cases aged ≥60 y were underrepresented. Our estimates of outbreak detection rely on suspected cases that attend a surveillance hospital receiving laboratory confirmation of disease and being reported to the surveillance system. The extent to which this occurs will depend on disease characteristics (e.g., severity and symptom specificity) and surveillance resources.

CONCLUSION

We present a new approach to evaluating the sensitivity and representativeness of hospital-based surveillance, making it possible to predict its ability to detect emerging threats.

Assessing Change in Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Virus Infections During the Fourth Epidemic - China, September 2015-August 2016

Since human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus were first reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) in March 2013 (1), mainland China has experienced four influenza A(H7N9) virus epidemics. Prior investigations demonstrated that age and sex distribution, clinical features, and exposure history of A(H7N9) virus human infections reported during the first three epidemics were similar (2). In this report, epidemiology and virology data from the most recent, fourth epidemic (September 2015-August 2016) were compared with those from the three earlier epidemics. Whereas age and sex distribution and exposure history in the fourth epidemic were similar to those in the first three epidemics, the fourth epidemic demonstrated a greater proportion of infected persons living in rural areas, a continued spread of the virus to new areas, and a longer epidemic period. The genetic markers of mammalian adaptation and antiviral resistance remained similar across each epidemic, and viruses from the fourth epidemic remained antigenically well matched to current candidate vaccine viruses. Although there is no evidence of increased human-to-human transmissibility of A(H7N9) viruses, the continued geographic spread, identification of novel reassortant viruses, and pandemic potential of the virus underscore the importance of rigorous A(H7N9) virus surveillance and continued risk assessment in China and neighboring countries.

Household-level risk factors for secondary influenza-like illness in a rural area of Bangladesh

Objective

To describe household‐level risk factors for secondary influenza‐like illness (ILI), an important public health concern in the low‐income population of Bangladesh.

Methods

Secondary analysis of control participants in a randomised controlled trial evaluating the effect of handwashing to prevent household ILI transmission. We recruited index‐case patients with ILI – fever (<5 years); fever, cough or sore throat (≥5 years) – from health facilities, collected information on household factors and conducted syndromic surveillance among household contacts for 10 days after resolution of index‐case patients’ symptoms. We evaluated the associations between household factors at baseline and secondary ILI among household contacts using negative binomial regression, accounting for clustering by household.

Results

Our sample was 1491 household contacts of 184 index‐case patients. Seventy‐one percentage reported that smoking occurred in their home, 27% shared a latrine with one other household and 36% shared a latrine with >1 other household. A total of 114 household contacts (7.6%) had symptoms of ILI during follow‐up. Smoking in the home (RR_adj 1.9, 95% CI: 1.2, 3.0) and sharing a latrine with one household (RR_adj 2.1, 95% CI: 1.2, 3.6) or >1 household (RR_adj 3.1, 95% CI: 1.8–5.2) were independently associated with increased risk of secondary ILI.

Conclusion

Tobacco use in homes could increase respiratory illness in Bangladesh. The mechanism between use of shared latrines and household ILI transmission is not clear. It is possible that respiratory pathogens could be transmitted through faecal contact or contaminated fomites in shared latrines.

Cross-sectional survey and surveillance for influenza viruses and MERS-CoV among Egyptian pilgrims returning from Hajj during 2012-2015

BACKGROUND

Approximately 80 000 Egyptians participate in Hajj pilgrimage annually. The purpose of this study was to estimate influenza virus and MERS-CoV prevalence among Egyptian pilgrims returning from Hajj.

STUDY

A cross-sectional survey among 3 364 returning Egyptian pilgrims from 2012 to 2015 was conducted. Nasopharyngeal (NP) and oropharyngeal (OP) swabs were collected from all participants. Sputum specimens were collected from participants with respiratory symptoms and productive cough at the time of their interview. Specimens were tested for influenza viruses, and a convenience sample of NP/OP specimens was tested for MERS-CoV. Thirty percent of participants met the case definition for influenza-like illness (ILI), 14% tested positive for influenza viruses, and none tested positive for MERS-CoV. Self-reported influenza vaccination was 20%.

CONCLUSIONS

High prevalence of reported ILI during pilgrimage and confirmed influenza virus on return from pilgrimage suggest a continued need for influenza prevention strategies for Egyptian Hajj pilgrims. An evaluation of the Ministry of Health and Population's current risk communication campaigns to increase influenza vaccine use among pilgrims may help identify strategies to improve vaccine coverage.

Evaluating Google Flu Trends in Latin America: Important Lessons for the Next Phase of Digital Disease Detection

BACKGROUND

 Latin America has a substantial burden of influenza and rising Internet access and could benefit from real-time influenza epidemic prediction web tools such as Google Flu Trends (GFT) to assist in risk communication and resource allocation during epidemics. However, there has never been a published assessment of GFT's accuracy in most Latin American countries or in any low- to middle-income country. Our aim was to evaluate GFT in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay.

METHODS

 Weekly influenza-test positive proportions for the eight countries were obtained from FluNet for the period January 2011-December 2014. Concurrent weekly Google-predicted influenza activity in the same countries was abstracted from GFT. Pearson correlation coefficients between observed and Google-predicted influenza activity trends were determined for each country. Permutation tests were used to examine background seasonal correlation between FluNet and GFT by country.

RESULTS

 There were frequent GFT prediction errors, with correlation ranging from r = -0.53 to 0.91. GFT-predicted influenza activity best correlated with FluNet data in Mexico follow by Uruguay, Argentina, Chile, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia and Paraguay. Correlation was generally highest in the more temperate countries with more regular influenza seasonality and lowest in tropical regions. A substantial amount of autocorrelation was noted, suggestive that GFT is not fully specific for influenza virus activity.

CONCLUSIONS

 We note substantial inaccuracies with GFT-predicted influenza activity compared with FluNet throughout Latin America, particularly among tropical countries with irregular influenza seasonality. Our findings offer valuable lessons for future Internet-based biosurveillance tools.

Understanding the failure of a behavior change intervention to reduce risk behaviors for avian influenza transmission among backyard poultry raisers in rural Bangladesh: a focused ethnography

BACKGROUND

The spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus among poultry and humans has raised global concerns and has motivated government and public health organizations to initiate interventions to prevent the transmission of HPAI. In Bangladesh, H5N1 became endemic in poultry and seven human H5N1 cases have been reported since 2007, including one fatality. This study piloted messages to increase awareness about avian influenza and its prevention in two rural communities, and explored change in villagers' awareness and behaviors attributable to the intervention.

METHODS

During 2009-10, a research team implemented the study in two rural villages in two districts of Bangladesh. The team used a focused ethnographic approach for data collection, including informal interviews and observations to provide detailed contextual information about community response to a newly emerging disease. They collected pre-intervention qualitative data for one month. Then another team disseminated preventive messages focused on safe slaughtering methods, through courtyard meetings and affixed posters in every household. After dissemination, the research team collected post-intervention data for one month.

RESULTS

More villagers reported hearing about 'bird flu' after the intervention compared to before the intervention. After the intervention, villagers commonly recalled changes in the color of combs and shanks of poultry as signs of avian influenza, and perceived zoonotic transmission of avian influenza through direct contact and through inhalation. Consequently the villagers valued covering the nose and mouth while handling sick and dead poultry as a preventive measure. Nevertheless, the team did not observe noticeable change in villagers' behavior after the intervention. Villagers reported not following the recommended behaviors because of the perceived absence of avian influenza in their flocks, low risk of avian influenza, cost, inconvenience, personal discomfort, fear of being rebuked or ridiculed, and doubt about the necessity of the intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

The villagers' awareness about avian influenza improved after the intervention, however, the intervention did not result in any measurable improvement in preventive behaviors. Low cost approaches that promote financial benefits and minimize personal discomfort should be developed and piloted.

Transmission dynamics of pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in humans and swine in backyard farms in Tumbes, Peru

Objectives

We aimed to determine the frequency of pH1N1 transmission between humans and swine on backyard farms in Tumbes, Peru.

Design

Two‐year serial cross‐sectional study comprising four sampling periods: March 2009 (pre‐pandemic), October 2009 (peak of the pandemic in Peru), April 2010 (1st post‐pandemic period), and October 2011 (2nd post‐pandemic period).

Sample

Backyard swine serum, tracheal swabs, and lung sample were collected during each sampling period.

Main outcome measures

We assessed current and past pH1N1 infection in swine through serological testing, virus culture, and RT‐PCR and compared the results with human incidence data from a population‐based active surveillance cohort study in Peru.

Results

Among 1303 swine sampled, the antibody prevalence to pH1N1 was 0% pre‐pandemic, 8% at the peak of the human pandemic (October 2009), and 24% in April 2010 and 1% in October 2011 (post‐pandemic sampling periods). Trends in swine seropositivity paralleled those seen in humans in Tumbes. The pH1N1 virus was isolated from three pigs during the peak of the pandemic. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that these viruses likely represent two separate human‐to‐swine transmission events in backyard farm settings.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that human‐to‐swine pH1N1 transmission occurred during the pandemic among backyard farms in Peru, emphasizing the importance of interspecies transmission in backyard pig populations. Continued surveillance for influenza viruses in backyard farms is warranted.

Increased Number of Human Cases of Influenza Virus A(H5N1) Infection, Egypt, 2014-15

During November 2014–April 2015, a total of 165 case-patients with influenza virus A(H5N1) infection, including 6 clusters and 51 deaths, were identified in Egypt. Among infected persons, 99% reported poultry exposure: 19% to ill poultry and 35% to dead poultry. Only 1 person reported wearing personal protective equipment while working with poultry.

Raising Backyard Poultry in Rural Bangladesh: Financial and Nutritional Benefits, but Persistent Risky Practices

Poultry is commonly raised by households in rural Bangladesh. In 2007, the Government of Bangladesh began a mass media campaign to disseminate 10 recommended precautions to prevent transmission of H5N1 from poultry to humans. This longitudinal study explored the contribution of backyard poultry on household economy and nutrition and compared poultry-raising practices to government recommendations. From 2009 to 2012, we enrolled a nationally representative sample of 2489 primary backyard poultry raisers from 115 rural villages selected by probability proportional to population size. Researchers interviewed the raisers to collect data on poultry-raising practices. They followed the raisers for 2-12 months to collect data on household income and nutrition from poultry. Income from backyard poultry flocks accounted for 2.8% of monthly household income. Return on annual investment (ROI) per flock was 480%. Yearly, median family consumption of eggs was one-fifth of the total produced eggs and three poultry from their own flock. Respondents' reported practices conflicted with government recommendations. Sixty per cent of raisers had never heard of avian influenza or 'bird flu'. Among the respondents, 85% handled sick poultry or poultry that died due to illness, and 49% slaughtered or defeathered sick poultry. In 37% of households, children touched poultry. Fifty-eight per cent never washed their hands with soap after handling poultry, while <1% covered their nose and mouth with a cloth when handling poultry. Only 3% reported poultry illness and deaths to local authorities. These reported practices did not improve during the study period. Raising backyard poultry in rural Bangladesh provides important income and nutrition with an excellent ROI. Government recommendations to reduce the risk of avian influenza transmission did not impact the behaviour of poultry producers. Further research should prioritize developing interventions that simultaneously reduce the risk of avian influenza transmission and increase productivity of backyard poultry.

Burden of influenza-associated deaths in the Americas, 2002-2008

BACKGROUND

Influenza disease is a vaccine-preventable cause of morbidity and mortality. The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) region has invested in influenza vaccines, but few estimates of influenza burden exist to justify these investments. We estimated influenza-associated deaths for 35 PAHO countries during 2002-2008.

METHODS

Annually, PAHO countries report registered deaths. We used respiratory and circulatory (R&C) codes from seven countries with distinct influenza seasonality and high-quality mortality data to estimate influenza-associated mortality rates by age group (0-64, 65-74, and ≥ 75 years) with a Serfling regression model or a negative binomial model. We calculated the percent of all R&C deaths attributable to influenza by age group in these countries (etiologic fraction) and applied it to the age-specific mortality in 13 countries with good mortality data but poorly defined seasonality. Lastly, we grouped the remaining 15 countries into WHO mortality strata and applied the age and mortality stratum-specific rate of influenza mortality calculated from the 20 countries. We summed each country's estimate to arrive at an average total annual number and rate of influenza deaths in the Americas.

RESULTS

For the 35 PAHO countries, we estimated an annual mean influenza-associated mortality rate of 2·1/100,000 among <65-year olds, 31·9/100 000 among those 65-74 years, and 161·8/100,000 among those ≥ 75 years. We estimated that annually between 40,880 and 160,270 persons (mean, 85,100) die of influenza illness in the PAHO region.

CONCLUSION

Influenza remains an important cause of mortality in the Americas.

Influenza Seasonality in the Tropics and Subtropics - When to Vaccinate?

BACKGROUND

The timing of the biannual WHO influenza vaccine composition selection and production cycle has been historically directed to the influenza seasonality patterns in the temperate regions of the northern and southern hemispheres. Influenza activity, however, is poorly understood in the tropics with multiple peaks and identifiable year-round activity. The evidence-base needed to take informed decisions on vaccination timing and vaccine formulation is often lacking for the tropics and subtropics. This paper aims to assess influenza seasonality in the tropics and subtropics. It explores geographical grouping of countries into vaccination zones based on optimal timing of influenza vaccination.

METHODS

Influenza seasonality was assessed by different analytic approaches (weekly proportion of positive cases, time series analysis, etc.) using FluNet and national surveillance data. In case of discordance in the seasonality assessment, consensus was built through discussions with in-country experts. Countries with similar onset periods of their primary influenza season were grouped into geographical zones.

RESULTS

The number and period of peak activity was ascertained for 70 of the 138 countries in the tropics and subtropics. Thirty-seven countries had one and seventeen countries had two distinct peaks. Countries near the equator had secondary peaks or even identifiable year-round activity. The main influenza season in most of South America and Asia started between April and June. The start of the main season varied widely in Africa (October and December in northern Africa, April and June in Southern Africa and a mixed pattern in tropical Africa). Eight "influenza vaccination zones" (two each in America and Asia, and four in Africa and Middle East) were defined with recommendations for vaccination timing and vaccine formulation. The main limitation of our study is that FluNet and national surveillance data may lack the granularity to detect sub-national variability in seasonality patterns.

CONCLUSION

Distinct influenza seasonality patterns, though complex, could be ascertained for most countries in the tropics and subtropics using national surveillance data. It may be possible to group countries into zones based on similar recommendations for vaccine timing and formulation.

Estimating the burden of influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths in Central America

Objectives

Our objective was to estimate the incidence of influenza‐associated hospitalizations and in‐hospital deaths in Central American Region.

Design and setting

We used hospital discharge records, influenza surveillance virology data, and population projections collected from Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua to estimate influenza‐associated hospitalizations and in‐hospital deaths. We performed a meta‐analysis of influenza‐associated hospitalizations and in‐hospital deaths.

Main outcome measures

The highest annual incidence was observed among children aged <5 years (136 influenza‐associated hospitalizations per 100 000 persons).

Results

Annually, 7 625–11 289 influenza‐associated hospitalizations and 352–594 deaths occurred in the subregion.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that a substantive number of persons are annually hospitalized because of influenza. Health officials should estimate how many illnesses could be averted through increased influenza vaccination.

Determination of Predominance of Influenza Virus Strains in the Americas

During 2001–2014, predominant influenza A(H1N1) and A(H3N2) strains in South America predominated in all or most subsequent influenza seasons in Central and North America. Predominant A(H1N1) and A(H3N2) strains in North America predominated in most subsequent seasons in Central and South America. Sharing data between these subregions may improve influenza season preparedness.

Global Role and Burden of Influenza in Pediatric Respiratory Hospitalizations, 1982-2012: A Systematic Analysis

BACKGROUND

The global burden of pediatric severe respiratory illness is substantial, and influenza viruses contribute to this burden. Systematic surveillance and testing for influenza among hospitalized children has expanded globally over the past decade. However, only a fraction of the data has been used to estimate influenza burden. In this analysis, we use surveillance data to provide an estimate of influenza-associated hospitalizations among children worldwide.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We aggregated data from a systematic review (n = 108) and surveillance platforms (n = 37) to calculate a pooled estimate of the proportion of samples collected from children hospitalized with respiratory illnesses and positive for influenza by age group (<6 mo, <1 y, <2 y, <5 y, 5-17 y, and <18 y). We applied this proportion to global estimates of acute lower respiratory infection hospitalizations among children aged <1 y and <5 y, to obtain the number and per capita rate of influenza-associated hospitalizations by geographic region and socio-economic status. Influenza was associated with 10% (95% CI 8%-11%) of respiratory hospitalizations in children <18 y worldwide, ranging from 5% (95% CI 3%-7%) among children <6 mo to 16% (95% CI 14%-20%) among children 5-17 y. On average, we estimated that influenza results in approximately 374,000 (95% CI 264,000 to 539,000) hospitalizations in children <1 y-of which 228,000 (95% CI 150,000 to 344,000) occur in children <6 mo-and 870,000 (95% CI 610,000 to 1,237,000) hospitalizations in children <5 y annually. Influenza-associated hospitalization rates were more than three times higher in developing countries than in industrialized countries (150/100,000 children/year versus 48/100,000). However, differences in hospitalization practices between settings are an important limitation in interpreting these findings.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza is an important contributor to respiratory hospitalizations among young children worldwide. Increasing influenza vaccination coverage among young children and pregnant women could reduce this burden and protect infants <6 mo.

Timing of influenza epidemics and vaccines in the American tropics, 2002-2008, 2011-2014

Background

Influenza‐associated illness results in increased morbidity and mortality in the Americas. These effects can be mitigated with an appropriately chosen and timed influenza vaccination campaign. To provide guidance in choosing the most suitable vaccine formulation and timing of administration, it is necessary to understand the timing of influenza seasonal epidemics.

Objectives

Our main objective was to determine whether influenza occurs in seasonal patterns in the American tropics and when these patterns occurred.

Methods

Publicly available, monthly seasonal influenza data from the Pan American Health Organization and WHO, from countries in the American tropics, were obtained during 2002–2008 and 2011–2014 (excluding unseasonal pandemic activity during 2009–2010). For each country, we calculated the monthly proportion of samples that tested positive for influenza. We applied the monthly proportion data to a logistic regression model for each country.

Results

We analyzed 2002–2008 and 2011–2014 influenza surveillance data from the American tropics and identified 13 (81%) of 16 countries with influenza epidemics that, on average, started during May and lasted 4 months.

Conclusions

The majority of countries in the American tropics have seasonal epidemics that start in May. Officials in these countries should consider the impact of vaccinating persons during April with the Southern Hemisphere formulation.

Respiratory Viruses Associated Hospitalization among Children Aged <5 Years in Bangladesh: 2010-2014

BACKGROUND

We combined hospital-based surveillance and health utilization survey data to estimate the incidence of respiratory viral infections associated hospitalization among children aged < 5 years in Bangladesh.

METHODS

Surveillance physicians collected respiratory specimens from children aged <5 years hospitalized with respiratory illness and residing in the primary hospital catchment areas. We tested respiratory specimens for respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza viruses, human metapneumovirus, influenza, adenovirus and rhinoviruses using rRT-PCR. During 2013, we conducted a health utilization survey in the primary catchment areas of the hospitals to determine the proportion of all hospitalizations for respiratory illness among children aged <5 years at the surveillance hospitals during the preceding 12 months. We estimated the respiratory virus-specific incidence of hospitalization by dividing the estimated number of hospitalized children with a laboratory confirmed infection with a respiratory virus by the population aged <5 years of the catchment areas and adjusted for the proportion of children who were hospitalized at the surveillance hospitals.

RESULTS

We estimated that the annual incidence per 1000 children (95% CI) of all cause associated respiratory hospitalization was 11.5 (10-12). The incidences per 1000 children (95% CI) per year for respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza, adenovirus, human metapneumovirus and influenza infections were 3(2-3), 0.5(0.4-0.8), 0.4 (0.3-0.6), 0.4 (0.3-0.6), and 0.4 (0.3-0.6) respectively. The incidences per 1000 children (95%CI) of rhinovirus-associated infections among hospitalized children were 5 (3-7), 2 (1-3), 1 (0.6-2), and 3 (2-4) in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our data suggest that respiratory viruses are associated with a substantial burden of hospitalization in children aged <5 years in Bangladesh.

Impact of neuraminidase inhibitors on influenza A(H1N1)pdm09-related pneumonia: an individual participant data meta-analysis

Background

The impact of neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) on influenza‐related pneumonia (IRP) is not established. Our objective was to investigate the association between NAI treatment and IRP incidence and outcomes in patients hospitalised with A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection.

Methods

A worldwide meta‐analysis of individual participant data from 20 634 hospitalised patients with laboratory‐confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 (n = 20 021) or clinically diagnosed (n = 613) ‘pandemic influenza’. The primary outcome was radiologically confirmed IRP. Odds ratios (OR) were estimated using generalised linear mixed modelling, adjusting for NAI treatment propensity, antibiotics and corticosteroids.

Results

Of 20 634 included participants, 5978 (29·0%) had IRP; conversely, 3349 (16·2%) had confirmed the absence of radiographic pneumonia (the comparator). Early NAI treatment (within 2 days of symptom onset) versus no NAI was not significantly associated with IRP [adj. OR 0·83 (95% CI 0·64–1·06; P = 0·136)]. Among the 5978 patients with IRP, early NAI treatment versus none did not impact on mortality [adj. OR = 0·72 (0·44–1·17; P = 0·180)] or likelihood of requiring ventilatory support [adj. OR = 1·17 (0·71–1·92; P = 0·537)], but early treatment versus later significantly reduced mortality [adj. OR = 0·70 (0·55–0·88; P = 0·003)] and likelihood of requiring ventilatory support [adj. OR = 0·68 (0·54–0·85; P = 0·001)].

Conclusions

Early NAI treatment of patients hospitalised with A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection versus no treatment did not reduce the likelihood of IRP. However, in patients who developed IRP, early NAI treatment versus later reduced the likelihood of mortality and needing ventilatory support.

A population-based estimate of the economic burden of influenza in Peru, 2009-2010

Introduction

Influenza disease burden and economic impact data are needed to assess the potential value of interventions. Such information is limited from resource‐limited settings. We therefore studied the cost of influenza in Peru.

Methods

We used data collected during June 2009–December 2010 from laboratory‐confirmed influenza cases identified through a household cohort in Peru. We determined the self‐reported direct and indirect costs of self‐treatment, outpatient care, emergency ward care, and hospitalizations through standardized questionnaires. We recorded costs accrued 15‐day from illness onset. Direct costs represented medication, consultation, diagnostic fees, and health‐related expenses such as transportation and phone calls. Indirect costs represented lost productivity during days of illness by both cases and caregivers. We estimated the annual economic cost and the impact of a case of influenza on a household.

Results

There were 1321 confirmed influenza cases, of which 47% sought health care. Participants with confirmed influenza illness paid a median of $13 [interquartile range (IQR) 5–26] for self‐treatment, $19 (IQR 9–34) for ambulatory non‐medical attended illness, $29 (IQR 14–51) for ambulatory medical attended illness, and $171 (IQR 113–258) for hospitalizations. Overall, the projected national cost of an influenza illness was $83–$85 millions. Costs per influenza illness represented 14% of the monthly household income of the lowest income quartile (compared to 3% of the highest quartile).

Conclusion

Influenza virus infection causes an important economic burden, particularly among the poorest families and those hospitalized. Prevention strategies such as annual influenza vaccination program targeting SAGE population at risk could reduce the overall economic impact of seasonal influenza.

Highly pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) virus infection among workers at live bird markets, Bangladesh, 2009-2010

Evidence of infection was low despite frequent exposure to infected poultry and low use of personal protective equipment.

The risk for influenza A(H5N1) virus infection is unclear among poultry workers in countries where the virus is endemic. To assess H5N1 seroprevalence and seroconversion among workers at live bird markets (LBMs) in Bangladesh, we followed a cohort of workers from 12 LBMs with existing avian influenza surveillance. Serum samples from workers were tested for H5N1 antibodies at the end of the study or when LBM samples first had H5N1 virus–positive test results. Of 404 workers, 9 (2%) were seropositive at baseline. Of 284 workers who completed the study and were seronegative at baseline, 6 (2%) seroconverted (7 cases/100 poultry worker–years). Workers who frequently fed poultry, cleaned feces from pens, cleaned food/water containers, and did not wash hands after touching sick poultry had a 7.6 times higher risk for infection compared with workers who infrequently performed these behaviors. Despite frequent exposure to H5N1 virus, LBM workers showed evidence of only sporadic infection.

Associations between seasonal influenza and meteorological parameters in Costa Rica, Honduras and Nicaragua

Seasonal influenza affects a considerable proportion of the global population each year. We assessed the association between subnational influenza activity and temperature, specific humidity and rainfall in three Central America countries, i.e. Costa Rica, Honduras and Nicaragua. Using virologic data from each country's national influenza centre, rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and air temperature and specific humidity data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System, we applied logistic regression methods for each of the five sub-national locations studied. Influenza activity was represented by the weekly proportion of respiratory specimens that tested positive for influenza. The models were adjusted for the potentially confounding co-circulating respiratory viruses, seasonality and previous weeks' influenza activity. We found that influenza activity was proportionally associated (P&lt;0.05) with specific humidity in all locations [odds ratio (OR) 1.21-1.56 per g/kg], while associations with temperature (OR 0.69-0.81 per °C) and rainfall (OR 1.01-1.06 per mm/day) were location-dependent. Among the meteorological parameters, specific humidity had the highest contribution (~3-15%) to the model in all but one location. As model validation, we estimated influenza activity for periods, in which the data was not used in training the models. The correlation coefficients between the estimates and the observed were ≤0.1 in 2 locations and between 0.6-0.86 in three others. In conclusion, our study revealed a proportional association between influenza activity and specific humidity in selected areas from the three Central America countries.

Influenza Illness among Case-Patients Hospitalized for Suspected Dengue, El Salvador, 2012

We estimate the proportion of patients hospitalized for suspected dengue that tested positive for influenza virus in El Salvador during the 2012 influenza season. We tested specimens from 321 hospitalized patients: 198 patients with SARI and 123 patients with suspected dengue. Among 121 hospitalized suspected dengue (two co-infected excluded) patients, 28% tested positive for dengue and 19% positive for influenza; among 35 with suspected dengue and respiratory symptoms, 14% were positive for dengue and 39% positive for influenza. One percent presented co-infection between influenza and dengue. Clinicians should consider the diagnosis of influenza among patients with suspected dengue during the influenza season.

Timing of influenza A(H5N1) in poultry and humans and seasonal influenza activity worldwide, 2004-2013

Co-circulation of H5N1 in poultry and humans during seasonal influenza epidemic periods signals the need for enhanced surveillance and biosafety measures.

Co-circulation of influenza A(H5N1) and seasonal influenza viruses among humans and animals could lead to co-infections, reassortment, and emergence of novel viruses with pandemic potential. We assessed the timing of subtype H5N1 outbreaks among poultry, human H5N1 cases, and human seasonal influenza in 8 countries that reported 97% of all human H5N1 cases and 90% of all poultry H5N1 outbreaks. In these countries, most outbreaks among poultry (7,001/11,331, 62%) and half of human cases (313/625, 50%) occurred during January–March. Human H5N1 cases occurred in 167 (45%) of 372 months during which outbreaks among poultry occurred, compared with 59 (10%) of 574 months that had no outbreaks among poultry. Human H5N1 cases also occurred in 59 (22%) of 267 months during seasonal influenza periods. To reduce risk for co-infection, surveillance and control of H5N1 should be enhanced during January–March, when H5N1 outbreaks typically occur and overlap with seasonal influenza virus circulation.

Human Coronavirus-Associated Influenza-Like Illness in the Community Setting in Peru

We present findings describing the epidemiology of non-severe acute respiratory syndrome human coronavirus-associated influenza-like illness from a population-based active follow-up study in four different regions of Peru. In 2010, the prevalence of infections by human coronaviruses 229E, OC43, NL63, or HKU1 was 6.4% in participants with influenza-like illness who tested negative for influenza viruses. Ten of 11 human coronavirus infections were identified in the fall-winter season. Human coronaviruses are present in different regions of Peru and are relatively frequently associated with influenza-like illness in Peru.

Demographic and clinical characteristics of deaths associated with influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 in Central America and Dominican Republic 2009-2010

BACKGROUND

The demographic characteristics of pandemic influenza decedents among middle and low-income tropical countries are poorly understood. We explored the demographics of persons who died with influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 infection during 2009-2010, in seven countries in the American tropics.

METHODS

We used hospital-based surveillance to identify laboratory-confirmed influenza deaths in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama and Dominican Republic. An influenza death was defined as a person who died within two weeks of a severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) defined as sudden onset of fever >38 °C, cough or sore-throat, and shortness of breath, or difficulty breathing requiring hospitalization, and who tested positive for influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 virus by real time polymerase chain reaction. We abstracted the demographic and clinical characteristics of the deceased from their medical records.

RESULTS

During May 2009-June 2010, we identified 183 influenza deaths. Their median age was 32 years (IQR 18-46 years). One-hundred and one (55 %) were female of which 20 (20 %) were pregnant and 7 (7 %) were in postpartum. One-hundred and twelve decedents (61 %) had pre-existing medical conditions, (15 % had obesity, 13 % diabetes, 11 % asthma, 8 % metabolic disorders, 5 % chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and 10 % neurological disorders). 65 % received oseltamivir but only 5 % received it within 48 h of symptoms onset.

CONCLUSIONS

The pandemic killed young adults, pregnant women and those with pre-existing medical conditions. Most sought care too late to fully benefit from oseltamivir. We recommend countries review antiviral treatment policies for people at high risk of developing complications.

Pilot to evaluate the feasibility of measuring seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness using surveillance platforms in Central-America, 2012

Background

Since 2004, the uptake of seasonal influenza vaccines in Latin America and the Caribbean has markedly increased. However, vaccine effectiveness (VE) is not routinely measured in the region. We assessed the feasibility of using routine surveillance data collected by sentinel hospitals to estimate influenza VE during 2012 against laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations in Costa-Rica, El Salvador, Honduras and Panama. We explored the completeness of variables needed for VE estimation.

Methods

We conducted the pilot case–control study at 23 severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) surveillance hospitals. Participant inclusion criteria included children 6 months–11 years and adults ≥60 years targeted for vaccination and hospitalized for SARI during January–December 2012. We abstracted information needed to estimate target group specific VE (i.e., date of illness onset and specimen collection, preexisting medical conditions, 2012 and 2011 vaccination status and date, and pneumococcal vaccination status for children and adults) from SARI case-reports and for children ≤9 years, inquired about the number of annual vaccine doses given. A case was defined as an influenza virus positive by RT-PCR in a person with SARI, while controls were RT-PCR negative. We recruited 3 controls per case from the same age group and month of onset of symptoms.

Results

We identified 1,186 SARI case-patients (342 influenza cases; 849 influenza-negative controls), of which 994 (84 %) had all the information on key variables sought. In 893 (75 %) SARI case-patients, the vaccination status field was missing in the SARI case-report forms and had to be completed using national vaccination registers (36 %), vaccination cards (30 %), or other sources (34 %). After applying exclusion criteria for VE analyses, 541 (46 %) SARI case-patients with variables necessary for the group-specific VE analyses were selected (87 cases, 236 controls among children; 64 cases, 154 controls among older adults) and were insufficient to provide precise regional estimates (39 % for children and 25 % for adults of minimum sample size needed).

Conclusions

Sentinel surveillance networks in middle income countries, such as some Latin American and Caribbean countries, could provide a simple and timely platform to estimate regional influenza VE annually provided SARI forms collect all necessary information.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-015-2001-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Strengthening the influenza vaccine virus selection and development process: Report of the 3rd WHO Informal Consultation for Improving Influenza Vaccine Virus Selection held at WHO headquarters, Geneva, Switzerland, 1-3 April 2014

Despite long-recognized challenges and constraints associated with their updating and manufacture, influenza vaccines remain at the heart of public health preparedness and response efforts against both seasonal and potentially pandemic influenza viruses. Globally coordinated virological and epidemiological surveillance is the foundation of the influenza vaccine virus selection and development process. Although national influenza surveillance and reporting capabilities are being strengthened and expanded, sustaining and building upon recent gains has become a major challenge. Strengthening the vaccine virus selection process additionally requires the continuation of initiatives to improve the timeliness and representativeness of influenza viruses shared by countries for detailed analysis by the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS). Efforts are also continuing at the national, regional, and global levels to better understand the dynamics of influenza transmission in both temperate and tropical regions. Improved understanding of the degree of influenza seasonality in tropical countries of the world should allow for the strengthening of national vaccination policies and use of the most appropriate available vaccines. There remain a number of limitations and difficulties associated with the use of HAI assays for the antigenic characterization and selection of influenza vaccine viruses by WHOCCs. Current approaches to improving the situation include the more-optimal use of HAI and other assays; improved understanding of the data produced by neutralization assays; and increased standardization of serological testing methods. A number of new technologies and associated tools have the potential to revolutionize influenza surveillance and response activities. These include the increasingly routine use of whole genome next-generation sequencing and other high-throughput approaches. Such approaches could not only become key elements in outbreak investigations but could drive a new surveillance paradigm. However, despite the advances made, significant challenges will need to be addressed before next-generation technologies become routine, particularly in low-resource settings. Emerging approaches and techniques such as synthetic genomics, systems genetics, systems biology and mathematical modelling are capable of generating potentially huge volumes of highly complex and diverse datasets. Harnessing the currently theoretical benefits of such bioinformatics ("big data") concepts for the influenza vaccine virus selection and development process will depend upon further advances in data generation, integration, analysis and dissemination. Over the last decade, growing awareness of influenza as an important global public health issue has been coupled to ever-increasing demands from the global community for more-equitable access to effective and affordable influenza vaccines. The current influenza vaccine landscape continues to be dominated by egg-based inactivated and live attenuated vaccines, with a small number of cell-based and recombinant vaccines. Successfully completing each step in the annual influenza vaccine manufacturing cycle will continue to rely upon timely and regular communication between the WHO GISRS, manufacturers and regulatory authorities. While the pipeline of influenza vaccines appears to be moving towards a variety of niche products in the near term, it is apparent that the ultimate aim remains the development of effective "universal" influenza vaccines that offer longer-lasting immunity against a broad range of influenza A subtypes.

Impact of Intensive Handwashing Promotion on Secondary Household Influenza-Like Illness in Rural Bangladesh: Findings from a Randomized Controlled Trial

Rationale

There is little evidence for the efficacy of handwashing for prevention of influenza transmission in resource-poor settings. We tested the impact of intensive handwashing promotion on household transmission of influenza-like illness and influenza in rural Bangladesh.

Methods

In 2009–10, we identified index case-patients with influenza-like illness (fever with cough or sore throat) who were the only symptomatic person in their household. Household compounds of index case-patients were randomized to control or intervention (soap and daily handwashing promotion). We conducted daily surveillance and collected oropharyngeal specimens. Secondary attack ratios (SAR) were calculated for influenza and ILI in each arm. Among controls, we investigated individual risk factors for ILI among household contacts of index case-patients.

Results

Among 377 index case-patients, the mean number of days between fever onset and study enrollment was 2.1 (SD 1.7) among the 184 controls and 2.6 (SD 2.9) among 193 intervention case-patients. Influenza infection was confirmed in 20% of controls and 12% of intervention index case-patients. The SAR for influenza-like illness among household contacts was 9.5% among intervention (158/1661) and 7.7% among control households (115/1498) (SAR ratio 1.24, 95% CI 0.92–1.65). The SAR ratio for influenza was 2.40 (95% CI 0.68–8.47). In the control arm, susceptible contacts <2 years old (RR_adj 5.51, 95% CI 3.43–8.85), those living with an index case-patient enrolled ≤24 hours after symptom onset (RR_adj 1.91, 95% CI 1.18–3.10), and those who reported multiple daily interactions with the index case-patient (RR_adj 1.94, 95% CI 1.71–3.26) were at increased risk of influenza-like illness.

Discussion

Handwashing promotion initiated after illness onset in a household member did not protect against influenza-like illness or influenza. Behavior may not have changed rapidly enough to curb transmission between household members. A reactive approach to reduce household influenza transmission through handwashing promotion may be ineffective in the context of rural Bangladesh.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00880659

What Is the Added Benefit of Oropharyngeal Swabs Compared to Nasal Swabs Alone for Respiratory Virus Detection in Hospitalized Children Aged <10 Years?

We evaluated the added value of collecting both nasal and oropharyngeal swabs, compared with collection of nasal swabs alone, for detection of common respiratory viruses by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction in hospitalized children aged <10 years. Nasal swabs had equal or greater sensitivity than oropharyngeal swabs for detection of respiratory syncytial virus, adenovirus, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus, and influenza virus but not parainfluenza virus. The addition of an oropharyngeal swab, compared with use of a nasal swab alone, increased the frequency of detection of each respiratory virus by no more than 10% in children aged <10 years.

Paralytic shellfish poisonings resulting from an algal bloom in Nicaragua

Background

During an October 2005 algal bloom (i.e., a rapid increase or accumulation in the population of algae) off the coast of Nicaragua, 45 people developed symptoms of paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) and one person died. PSP in humans is caused by ingestion of saxitoxin, which is a neurotoxin often associated with shellfish contaminated by algal blooms.

To explore the relationship between the algal bloom and human illnesses, we performed a case-control study of residents living in a coastal island. We administered a standardized clinical questionnaire, sampled locally harvested seafood and algae, and obtained urine samples for saxitoxin testing from symptomatic and asymptomatic persons. PSP case-patients were defined as island residents who developed at least one neurological symptom during the November 4–16 intoxication period. Seafood and algal samples were analyzed for saxitoxins using the receptor-binding assay and high-performance liquid chromatography. Two urine samples were analyzed for saxitoxins using a newly developed immunoassay.

Findings

Three shellfish and two algal samples tested positive for saxitoxins. Ten (9%) of 107 participants developed neurological symptoms during the specified time period and five required hospitalization. While 6 (67%) of 9 possible case-patients and 21 (21%) of 98 controls had eaten fish (p=0.008), all case-patients and 17 (17%) of controls had eaten clams (P<0.0001). The saxitoxin concentration in the urine of a hospitalized case-patient was 21 ng saxitoxin/g creatinine compared to 0.16 ng saxitoxin/g creatinine in the single control patient’s urine.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that a bloom of saxitoxin-producing algae resulted in saxitoxin accumulation in local clams and was responsible for the PSP intoxication.

Influenza-associated Hospitalizations and Deaths, Costa Rica, 2009-2012

Data needed to guide influenza vaccine policies are lacking in tropical countries. We multiplied the number of severe acute respiratory infections by the proportion testing positive for influenza. There were ≈6,699 influenza hospitalizations and 803 deaths in Costa Rica during 2009-2012, supporting continuation of a national influenza vaccine program.