Temperature drives Zika virus transmission: evidence from empirical and mathematical models

A review exploring the overarching burden of Zika virus with emphasis on epidemiological case studies from Brazil

This paper explores the main factors for mosquito-borne transmission of the Zika virus by focusing on environmental, anthropogenic, and social risks. A literature review was conducted bringing together related information from this genre of research from peer-reviewed publications. It was observed that environmental conditions, especially precipitation, humidity, and temperature, played a role in the transmission. Furthermore, anthropogenic factors including sanitation, urbanization, and environmental pollution promote the transmission by affecting the mosquito density. In addition, socioeconomic factors such as poverty as well as social inequality and low-quality housing have also an impact since these are social factors that limit access to certain facilities or infrastructure which, in turn, promote transmission when absent (e.g., piped water and screened windows). Finally, the paper presents short-, mid-, and long-term preventative solutions together with future perspectives. This is the first review exploring the effects of anthropogenic aspects on Zika transmission with a special emphasis in Brazil.

Thermal limits in the face of infectious disease: How important are pathogens?

The frequency and severity of both extreme thermal events and disease outbreaks are predicted to continue to shift as a consequence of global change. As a result, species persistence will likely be increasingly dependent on the interaction between thermal stress and pathogen exposure. Missing from the intersection between studies of infectious disease and thermal ecology, however, is the capacity for pathogen exposure to directly disrupt a host's ability to cope with thermal stress. Common sources of variation in host thermal performance, which are likely to interact with infection, are also often unaccounted for when assessing either the vulnerability of species or the potential for disease spread during extreme thermal events. Here, we describe how infection can directly alter host thermal limits, to a degree that exceeds the level of variation commonly seen across species large geographic distributions and that equals the detrimental impact of other ecologically relevant stressors. We then discuss various sources of heterogeneity within and between populations that are likely to be important in mediating the impact that infection has on variation in host thermal limits. In doing so we highlight how infection is a widespread and important source of variation in host thermal performance, which will have implications for both the persistence and vulnerability of species and the dynamics and transmission of disease in a more thermally extreme world.

The Extrinsic Incubation Period of Zika Virus in Florida Mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus

The Asian genotype of Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Brazil in 2015 and subsequently spread throughout the Americas. In July 2016, Florida experienced its first locally acquired ZIKV infection in the continental U.S. Concerns about health risks from ZIKV infection have increased the need to investigate the interactions between potential mosquito vectors and ZIKV. The time it takes for an arbovirus to propagate within a mosquito, and become transmissible, is the extrinsic incubation period (EIP). The EIP for potential mosquito vectors in Florida is unknown. To address this gap in the understanding of ZIKV epidemiology, Florida Aedes aegypti (L.) and Ae. albopictus (Skuse) were orally exposed to ZIKV infected blood meals and fully engorged mosquitoes were held at a constant temperature of 28 °C through the duration of the experiment. Saliva expectorates were collected from cohorts of mosquitoes and tested for the presence of ZIKV at three-day intervals over a period of 24 days to allow for an evaluation of the EIP of the emergent Asian lineage of ZIKV. High rates of infected bodies in Ae. albopictus (75–94%) and Ae. aegypti (68–86%) were observed throughout the incubation period, which did not differ by species. Higher rates of disseminated infection were observed later during the incubation period but did not differ between species. We calculated the 50% EIP to be shorter in Ae. albopictus than Ae. aegypti (16.2 and 18.2 days post infection, respectively). The competence for ZIKV observed in both species may contribute to high rates of ZIKV transmission in Florida populations.

Predictive model for microclimatic temperature and its use in mosquito population modeling

Mosquitoes transmit several infectious diseases that pose significant threat to human health. Temperature along with other environmental factors at breeding and resting locations play a role in the organismal development and abundance of mosquitoes. Accurate analysis of mosquito population dynamics requires information on microclimatic conditions at breeding and resting locations. In this study, we develop a regression model to characterize microclimatic temperature based on ambient environmental conditions. Data were collected by placing sensor loggers at resting and breeding locations such as storm drains across Houston, TX. Corresponding weather data was obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website. Features extracted from these data sources along with contextual information on location were used to develop a Generalized Linear Model for predicting microclimate temperatures. We also analyzed mosquito population dynamics for Aedes albopictus under ambient and microclimatic conditions using system dynamic (SD) modelling to demonstrate the need for accurate microclimatic temperatures in population models. The microclimate prediction model had an R² value of ~ 95% and average prediction error of ~ 1.5 °C indicating that microclimate temperatures can be reliably estimated from the ambient environmental conditions. SD model analysis indicates that some microclimates in Texas could result in larger populations of juvenile and adult Aedes albopictus mosquitoes surviving the winter without requiring dormancy.

Deforestation hotspots, climate crisis, and the perfect scenario for the next epidemic: The Amazon time bomb

Currently most researchers consider humanity's extermination of biodiversity as the antecedent of ideal conditions for the emergence of new viruses and diseases. Animals lose their natural habitats due to extensive landscape changes, consequently crowding them together and increasing their interaction with humans. Additionally, it is also important to emphasise the increasing concern on climate change because climate can modify the distribution and intensity of other diseases such as vector-borne disease. Unfortunately, the global resources for biodiversity conservation were diluted by government support for activities harmful to the environment. A tragic example is from the Amazon rainforest, that experienced fast environmental depletion and high social inequalities. Extractive systems and extensive land use on a large scale have induced deforestation, great loss of biodiversity, carbon emission, and water contamination, leading to indigenous land dispossession, violence, and rural-urban migration. The deforested areas in the Amazon region increase considerably at an alarming speed each year. The COVID-19 pandemic is an evidence to show how viruses and pathogens move further and faster than before, which means we must also show a quick response. It requires financing and, mostly, changes in human behaviour. The message is simple: we need to rethink our current relationship with nature and with ourselves, which should lead to a social transformation towards the sustainable use of the available resources.

How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?

The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology-evolutionary rescue models-can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.

Insects and their pathogens in a changing climate

The complex nature of climate change-mediated multitrophic interaction is an underexplored area, but has the potential to dramatically shift transmission and distribution of many insects and their pathogens, placing some populations closer to the brink of extinction. However, for individual insect-pathogen interactions climate change will have complicated hard-to-anticipate impacts. Thus, both pathogen virulence and insect host immunity are intrinsically linked with generalized stress responses, and in both pathogen and host have extensive trade-offs with nutrition (e.g., host plant quality), growth and reproduction. Potentially alleviating or exasperating these impacts, some pathogens and hosts respond genetically and rapidly to environmental shifts. This review identifies many areas for future research including a particular need to identify how altered global warming interacts with other environmental changes and stressors, and how consistent these impacts are across pathogens and hosts. With that achieved we would be closer to producing an overarching framework to integrate knowledge on all environmental interplay and infectious disease events.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus and ambient temperature: a critical review

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has brought unprecedented public health, and social and economic challenges. It remains unclear whether seasonal changes in ambient temperature will alter spreading trajectory of the COVID-19 epidemic. The probable mechanism on this is still lacking. This review summarizes the most recent research data on the effect of ambient temperature on the COVID-19 epidemic characteristic. The available data suggest that (i) mesophilic traits of viruses are different due to their molecular composition; (ii) increasing ambient temperature decreases the persistence of some viruses in aquatic media; (iii) a 1°C increase in the average monthly minimum ambient temperatures (AMMAT) was related to a 0.72% fewer mammalian individuals that would be infected by coronavirus; (iv) proportion of zoonotic viruses of mammals including humans is probably related to their body temperature difference; (v) seasonal divergence between the northern and southern hemispheres may be a significant driver in determining a waved trajectory in the next 2 years. Further research is needed to understand its effects and mechanisms of global temperature change so that effective strategies can be adopted to curb its natural effects. This paper mainly explores possible scientific hypothesis and evidences that local communities and authorities should consider to find optimal solutions that can limit the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Sex, age, and parental harmonic convergence behavior affect the immune performance of Aedes aegypti offspring

Harmonic convergence is a potential cue, female mosquitoes use to choose male mates. However, very little is known about the benefits this choice confers to offspring performance. Using Aedes aegypti (an important vector of human disease), we investigated whether offspring of converging parental pairs showed differences in immune competence compared to offspring derived from non-converging parental pairs. Here we show that harmonic convergence, along with several other interacting factors (sex, age, reproductive, and physiological status), significantly shaped offspring immune responses (melanization and response to a bacterial challenge). Harmonic convergence had a stronger effect on the immune response of male offspring than on female offspring. Further, female offspring from converging parental pairs disseminated dengue virus more quickly than offspring derived from non-converging parental pairs. Our results provide insight into a wide range of selective pressures shaping mosquito immune function and could have important implications for disease transmission and control.

Effects of changes in temperature on Zika dynamics and control

When a rare pathogen emerges to cause a pandemic, it is critical to understand its dynamics and the impact of mitigation measures. We use experimental data to parametrize a temperature-dependent model of Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission dynamics and analyse the effects of temperature variability and control-related parameters on the basic reproduction number (R0) and the final epidemic size of ZIKV. Sensitivity analyses show that these two metrics are largely driven by different parameters, with the exception of temperature, which is the dominant driver of epidemic dynamics in the models. Our R0 estimate has a single optimum temperature (≈30°C), comparable to other published results (≈29°C). However, the final epidemic size is maximized across a wider temperature range, from 24 to 36°C. The models indicate that ZIKV is highly sensitive to seasonal temperature variation. For example, although the model predicts that ZIKV transmission cannot occur at a constant temperature below 23°C (≈ average annual temperature of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), the model predicts substantial epidemics for areas with a mean temperature of 20°C if there is seasonal variation of 10°C (≈ average annual temperature of Tampa, Florida). This suggests that the geographical range of ZIKV is wider than indicated from static R0 models, underscoring the importance of climate dynamics and variation in the context of broader climate change on emerging infectious diseases.

Comparison of Anti-Dengue and Anti-Zika IgG on a Plasmonic Gold Platform with Neutralization Testing

Antibody cross-reactivity confounds testing for dengue virus (DENV) and Zika virus (ZIKV). We evaluated anti-DENV and anti-ZIKV IgG detection using a multiplex serological platform (the pGOLD assay, Nirmidas, Palo Alto, CA) in patients from the Asunción metropolitan area in Paraguay, which experiences annual DENV outbreaks but has reported few autochthonous ZIKV infections. Acute-phase sera were tested from 77 patients who presented with a suspected arboviral illness from January to May 2018. Samples were tested for DENV and ZIKV RNA by real-time reverse transcription-PCR, and for DENV nonstructural protein 1 with a lateral-flow immunochromatographic test. Forty-one patients (51.2%) had acute dengue; no acute ZIKV infections were detected. Sixty-five patients (84.4%) had anti-DENV-neutralizing antibodies by focus reduction neutralization testing (FRNT50). Qualitative detection with the pGOLD assay demonstrated good agreement with FRNT50 (kappa = 0.74), and quantitative results were highly correlated between methods (P < 0.001). Only three patients had anti-ZIKV-neutralizing antibodies at titers of 1:55-1:80, and all three had corresponding DENV-neutralizing titers > 1:4,000. Hospitalized dengue cases had significantly higher anti-DENV IgG levels (P < 0.001). Anti-DENV IgG results from the pGOLD assay correlate well with FRNT, and quantitative results may inform patient risk stratification.

Yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate

INTRODUCTION

Yellow fever (YF) is primarily transmitted by Haemagogus species of mosquitoes. Under climate change, mosquitoes and the pathogens that they carry are expected to develop faster, potentially impacting the case count and duration of YF outbreaks. The aim of this study was to determine how YF virus outbreaks in Brazil may change under future climate, using ensemble simulations from regional climate models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for three time periods: 2011-2040 (short-term), 2041-2070 (mid-term), and 2071-2100 (long-term).

METHODS

A compartmental model was developed to fit the 2017/18 YF outbreak data in Brazil using least squares optimization. To explore the impact of climate change, temperature-sensitive mosquito parameters were set to change over projected time periods using polynomial equations fitted to their relationship with temperature according to the average temperature for years 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 for climate change scenarios using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, where RCP4.5/RCP8.5 corresponds to intermediate/high radiative forcing values and to moderate/higher warming trends. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine how the temperature-sensitive parameters impacted model results, and to determine how vaccination could play a role in reducing YF in Brazil.

RESULTS

Yellow fever case projections for Brazil from the models varied when climate change scenarios were applied, including the peak clinical case incidence, cumulative clinical case incidence, time to peak incidence, and the outbreak duration. Overall, a decrease in YF cases and outbreak duration was observed. Comparing the observed incidence in 2017/18 to the projected incidence in 2070-2100, for RCP4.5, the cumulative case incidence decreased from 184 to 161, and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 20 weeks. For RCP8.5, the peak case incidence decreased from 184 to 147, and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 17 weeks. The observed decrease was primarily due to temperature increasing beyond that suitable for Haemagogus mosquito survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Climate change is anticipated to have an impact on mosquito-borne diseases. We found outbreaks of YF may reduce in intensity as temperatures increase in Brazil; however, temperature is not the only factor involved with disease transmission. Other factors must be explored to determine the attributable impact of climate change on mosquito-borne diseases.

A Method for Repeated, Longitudinal Sampling of Individual Aedes aegypti for Transmission Potential of Arboviruses

Mosquito-borne viruses are the cause of significant morbidity and mortality worldwide, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Assessing risk for viral transmission often involves characterization of the vector competence of vector-virus pairings. The most common determination of vector competence uses discreet, terminal time points, which cannot be used to investigate variation in transmission aspects, such as biting behavior, over time. Here, we present a novel method to longitudinally measure individual biting behavior and Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission. Individual mosquitoes were exposed to ZIKV, and from 9 to 24 days post-exposure, individuals were each offered a 180 μL bloodmeal every other day. Biting behavior was observed and characterized as either active probing, feeding, or no bite. The bloodmeal was then collected, spun down, serum collected, and tested for ZIKV RNA via qRT-PCR to determine individuals' vector competence over time. This included whether transmission to the bloodmeal was successful and the titer of expectorated virus. Additionally, serum was inoculated onto Vero cells in order to determine infectiousness of positive recovered sera. Results demonstrate heterogeneity in not only biting patterns but expectorated viral titers among individual mosquitoes over time. These findings demonstrate that the act of transmission is a complex process governed by mosquito behavior and mosquito-virus interaction, and herein we offer a method to investigate this phenomenon.

Connectivity, reproduction number, and mobility interact to determine communities' epidemiological superspreader potential in a metapopulation network

Disease epidemic outbreaks on human metapopulation networks are often driven by a small number of superspreader nodes, which are primarily responsible for spreading the disease throughout the network. Superspreader nodes typically are characterized either by their locations within the network, by their degree of connectivity and centrality, or by their habitat suitability for the disease, described by their reproduction number (R). Here we introduce a model that considers simultaneously the effects of network properties and R on superspreaders, as opposed to previous research which considered each factor separately. This type of model is applicable to diseases for which habitat suitability varies by climate or land cover, and for direct transmitted diseases for which population density and mitigation practices influences R. We present analytical models that quantify the superspreader capacity of a population node by two measures: probability-dependent superspreader capacity, the expected number of neighboring nodes to which the node in consideration will randomly spread the disease per epidemic generation, and time-dependent superspreader capacity, the rate at which the node spreads the disease to each of its neighbors. We validate our analytical models with a Monte Carlo analysis of repeated stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) simulations on randomly generated human population networks, and we use a random forest statistical model to relate superspreader risk to connectivity, R, centrality, clustering, and diffusion. We demonstrate that either degree of connectivity or R above a certain threshold are sufficient conditions for a node to have a moderate superspreader risk factor, but both are necessary for a node to have a high-risk factor. The statistical model presented in this article can be used to predict the location of superspreader events in future epidemics, and to predict the effectiveness of mitigation strategies that seek to reduce the value of R, alter host movements, or both.

A review of models applied to the geographic spread of Zika virus

In recent years, Zika virus (ZIKV) has expanded its geographic range and in 2015–2016 caused a substantial epidemic linked to a surge in developmental and neurological complications in newborns. Mathematical models are powerful tools for assessing ZIKV spread and can reveal important information for preventing future outbreaks. We reviewed the literature and retrieved modelling studies that were developed to understand the spatial epidemiology of ZIKV spread and risk. We classified studies by type, scale, aim and applications and discussed their characteristics, strengths and limitations. We examined the main objectives of these models and evaluated the effectiveness of integrating epidemiological and phylogeographic data, along with socioenvironmental risk factors that are known to contribute to vector–human transmission. We also assessed the promising application of human mobility data as a real-time indicator of ZIKV spread. Lastly, we summarised model validation methods used in studies to ensure accuracy in models and modelled outcomes. Models are helpful for understanding ZIKV spread and their characteristics should be carefully considered when developing future modelling studies to improve arbovirus surveillance.

Current Arboviral Threats and Their Potential Vectors in Thailand

Arthropod-borne viral diseases (arboviruses) are a public-health concern in many regions of the world, including Thailand. This review describes the potential vectors and important human and/or veterinary arboviruses in Thailand. The medically important arboviruses affect humans, while veterinary arboviruses affect livestock and the economy. The main vectors described are mosquitoes, but other arthropods have been reported. Important mosquito-borne arboviruses are transmitted mainly by members of the genus Aedes (e.g., dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus) and Culex (e.g., Japanese encephalitis, Tembusu and West Nile virus). While mosquitoes are important vectors, arboviruses are transmitted via other vectors, such as sand flies, ticks, cimicids (Family Cimicidae) and Culicoides. Veterinary arboviruses are reported in this review, e.g., duck Tembusu virus (DTMUV), Kaeng Khoi virus (KKV), and African horse sickness virus (AHSV). During arbovirus outbreaks, to target control interventions appropriately, it is critical to identify the vector(s) involved and their ecology. Knowledge of the prevalence of these viruses, and the potential for viral infections to co-circulate in mosquitoes, is also important for outbreak prediction.

Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050

In the aftermath of the 2015 pandemic of Zika virus (ZIKV), concerns over links between climate change and emerging arboviruses have become more pressing. Given the potential that much of the world might remain at risk from the virus, we used a previously established temperature-dependent transmission model for ZIKV to project climate change impacts on transmission suitability risk by mid-century (a generation into the future). Based on these model predictions, in the worst-case scenario, over 1.3 billion new people could face suitable transmission temperatures for ZIKV by 2050. The next generation will face substantially increased ZIKV transmission temperature suitability in North America and Europe, where naïve populations might be particularly vulnerable. Mitigating climate change even to moderate emissions scenarios could significantly reduce global expansion of climates suitable for ZIKV transmission, potentially protecting around 200 million people. Given these suitability risk projections, we suggest an increased priority on research establishing the immune history of vulnerable populations, modeling when and where the next ZIKV outbreak might occur, evaluating the efficacy of conventional and novel intervention measures, and increasing surveillance efforts to prevent further expansion of ZIKV.

Mapping the cryptic spread of the 2015-2016 global Zika virus epidemic

BACKGROUND

Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged as a global epidemic in 2015-2016 from Latin America with its true geographical extent remaining unclear due to widely presumed underreporting. The identification of locations with potential and unknown spread of ZIKV is a key yet understudied component for outbreak preparedness. Here, we aim to identify locations at a high risk of cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016 to further the understanding of the global ZIKV epidemiology, which is critical for the mitigation of the risk of future epidemics.

METHODS

We developed an importation simulation model to estimate the weekly number of ZIKV infections imported in each susceptible spatial unit (i.e. location that did not report any autochthonous Zika cases during 2015-2016), integrating epidemiological, demographic, and travel data as model inputs. Thereafter, a global risk model was applied to estimate the weekly ZIKV transmissibility during 2015-2016 for each location. Finally, we assessed the risk of onward ZIKV spread following importation in each susceptible spatial unit to identify locations with a high potential for cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016.

RESULTS

We have found 24 susceptible spatial units that were likely to have experienced cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016, of which 10 continue to have a high risk estimate within a highly conservative scenario, namely, Luanda in Angola, Banten in Indonesia, Maharashtra in India, Lagos in Nigeria, Taiwan and Guangdong in China, Dakar in Senegal, Maputo in Mozambique, Kinshasa in Congo DRC, and Pool in Congo. Notably, among the 24 susceptible spatial units identified, some have reported their first ZIKV outbreaks since 2017, thus adding to the credibility of our results (derived using 2015-2016 data only).

CONCLUSION

Our study has provided valuable insights into the potentially high-risk locations for cryptic ZIKV circulation during the 2015-2016 pandemic and has also laid a foundation for future studies that attempt to further narrow this key knowledge gap. Our modelling framework can be adapted to identify areas with likely unknown spread of other emerging vector-borne diseases, which has important implications for public health readiness especially in resource-limited settings.

Mapping Thermal Physiology of Vector-Borne Diseases in a Changing Climate: Shifts in Geographic and Demographic Risk of Suitability

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To describe a collection of recent work published on thermal suitability for vector-borne diseases, in which mapping approaches illustrated the geographic shifts, and spatial approaches describe the demographic impact anticipated with a changing climate.

RECENT FINDINGS

While climate change predictions of warming indicate an expansion in VBD suitability risk in some parts of the globe, while in others, optimal temperatures for transmission may be exceeded, as seen for malaria in Western Africa, resulting in declining risk. The thermal suitability of specific vector-pathogen pairs can have large impacts on geographic range of risk, and changes in human demography itself will intersect with this risk to create different vulnerability profiles over the coming century. Using a physiological approach to describe the thermal suitability of transmission for vector-borne diseases allows us to illustrate the future risk as mapped information. This in turn can be coupled with demographic projections to anticipate changing risk, and even changing vulnerability within that population change.

Experimental evidence of warming-induced disease emergence and its prediction by a trait-based mechanistic model

Predicting the effects of seasonality and climate change on the emergence and spread of infectious disease remains difficult, in part because of poorly understood connections between warming and the mechanisms driving disease. Trait-based mechanistic models combined with thermal performance curves arising from the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) have been highlighted as a promising approach going forward; however, this framework has not been tested under controlled experimental conditions that isolate the role of gradual temporal warming on disease dynamics and emergence. Here, we provide experimental evidence that a slowly warming host-parasite system can be pushed through a critical transition into an epidemic state. We then show that a trait-based mechanistic model with MTE functional forms can predict the critical temperature for disease emergence, subsequent disease dynamics through time and final infection prevalence in an experimentally warmed system of Daphnia and a microsporidian parasite. Our results serve as a proof of principle that trait-based mechanistic models using MTE subfunctions can predict warming-induced disease emergence in data-rich systems-a critical step towards generalizing the approach to other systems.

The Role of Temperature in Shaping Mosquito-Borne Viruses Transmission

Mosquito-borne diseases having the greatest impact on human health are typically prevalent in the tropical belt of the world. However, these diseases are conquering temperate regions, raising the question of the role of temperature on their dynamics and expansion. Temperature is one of the most significant abiotic factors affecting, in many ways, insect vectors and the pathogens they transmit. Here, we debate the veracity of this claim by synthesizing current knowledge on the effects of temperature on arboviruses and their vectors, as well as the outcome of their interactions.

Land cover affects microclimate and temperature suitability for arbovirus transmission in an urban landscape

The emergence of mosquito-transmitted viruses poses a global threat to human health. Combining mechanistic epidemiological models based on temperature-trait relationships with climatological data is a powerful technique for environmental risk assessment. However, a limitation of this approach is that the local microclimates experienced by mosquitoes can differ substantially from macroclimate measurements, particularly in heterogeneous urban environments. To address this scaling mismatch, we modeled spatial variation in microclimate temperatures and the thermal potential for dengue transmission by Aedes albopictus across an urban-to-rural gradient in Athens-Clarke County GA. Microclimate data were collected across gradients of tree cover and impervious surface cover. We developed statistical models to predict daily minimum and maximum microclimate temperatures using coarse-resolution gridded macroclimate data (4000 m) and high-resolution land cover data (30 m). The resulting high-resolution microclimate maps were integrated with temperature-dependent mosquito abundance and vectorial capacity models to generate monthly predictions for the summer and early fall of 2018. The highest vectorial capacities were predicted for patches of trees in urban areas with high cover of impervious surfaces. Vectorial capacity was most sensitive to tree cover during the summer and became more sensitive to impervious surfaces in the early fall. Predictions from the same models using temperature data from a local meteorological station consistently over-predicted vectorial capacity compared to the microclimate-based estimates. This work demonstrates that it is feasible to model variation in mosquito microenvironments across an urban-to-rural gradient using satellite Earth observations. Epidemiological models applied to the microclimate maps revealed localized patterns of temperature suitability for disease transmission that would not be detectable using macroclimate data. Incorporating microclimate data into disease transmission models has the potential to yield more spatially precise and ecologically interpretable metrics of mosquito-borne disease transmission risk in urban landscapes.

Predicting the effects of temperature on mosquito abundance and arbovirus transmission cycles is essential for mapping hot spots of disease risk and projecting responses to climate change. In urban landscapes, the built environment and natural features create distinctive environments. Buildings and roads generate warmer conditions through the urban heat island effect, while vegetation can have a cooling effect because of shading and evaporative heat loss. We used land cover data to map microclimate temperature in Athens-Clarke County, GA and applied a temperature-dependent vectorial capacity model to predict the effects of microclimate on dengue transmission by Aedes albopictus. The highest vectorial capacity was predicted in patches of trees located in the urbanized portion of the study area. These locations had relatively warm nighttime and cool daytime temperature, which kept temperatures close to the optimum for disease transmission. This work demonstrates the feasibility of predicting variation in mosquito microenvironments in urban landscapes using satellite Earth observations. Incorporating microclimate data into disease transmission models has the potential to yield more spatially precise and ecologically interpretable metrics of mosquito-borne disease transmission risk.

Transmission of West Nile and five other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at temperatures between 23°C and 26°C

The temperature-dependence of many important mosquito-borne diseases has never been quantified. These relationships are critical for understanding current distributions and predicting future shifts from climate change. We used trait-based models to characterize temperature-dependent transmission of 10 vector-pathogen pairs of mosquitoes (Culex pipiens, Cx. quinquefascsiatus, Cx. tarsalis, and others) and viruses (West Nile, Eastern and Western Equine Encephalitis, St. Louis Encephalitis, Sindbis, and Rift Valley Fever viruses), most with substantial transmission in temperate regions. Transmission is optimized at intermediate temperatures (23-26°C) and often has wider thermal breadths (due to cooler lower thermal limits) compared to pathogens with predominately tropical distributions (in previous studies). The incidence of human West Nile virus cases across US counties responded unimodally to average summer temperature and peaked at 24°C, matching model-predicted optima (24-25°C). Climate warming will likely shift transmission of these diseases, increasing it in cooler locations while decreasing it in warmer locations.

Zika virus transmission by Brazilian Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus is virus dose and temperature-dependent

BACKGROUND

Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in the Pacific Ocean and subsequently caused a dramatic Pan-American epidemic after its first appearance in the Northeast region of Brazil in 2015. The virus is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. We evaluated the role of temperature and infectious doses of ZIKV in vector competence of Brazilian populations of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Two Ae. aegypti (Rio de Janeiro and Natal) and two Ae. albopictus (Rio de Janeiro and Manaus) populations were orally challenged with five viral doses (102 to 106 PFU / ml) of a ZIKV strain (Asian genotype) isolated in Northeastern Brazil, and incubated for 14 and 21 days in temperatures mimicking the spring-summer (28°C) and winter-autumn (22°C) mean values in Brazil. Detection of viral particles in the body, head and saliva samples was done by plaque assays in cell culture for determining the infection, dissemination and transmission rates, respectively. Compared with 28°C, at 22°C, transmission rates were significantly lower for both Ae. aegypti populations, and Ae. albopictus were not able to transmit the virus. Ae. albopictus showed low transmission rates even when challenged with the highest viral dose, while both Ae. aegypti populations presented higher of infection, dissemination and transmission rates than Ae. albopictus. Ae. aegypti showed higher transmission efficiency when taking virus doses of 105 and 106 PFU/mL following incubation at 28°C; both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were unable to transmit ZIKV with virus doses of 102 and 103 PFU/mL, regardless the incubation temperature.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The ingested viral dose and incubation temperature were significant predictors of the proportion of mosquito's biting becoming infectious. Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus have the ability to transmit ZIKV when incubated at 28°C. However Brazilian populations of Ae. aegypti exhibit a much higher transmission potential for ZIKV than Ae. albopictus regardless the combination of infection dose and incubation temperature.

Climate change could shift disease burden from malaria to arboviruses in Africa

Malaria is a long-standing public health problem in sub-Saharan Africa, whereas arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) such as dengue and chikungunya cause an under-recognised burden of disease. Many human and environmental drivers affect the dynamics of vector-borne diseases. In this Personal View, we argue that the direct effects of warming temperatures are likely to promote greater environmental suitability for dengue and other arbovirus transmission by Aedes aegypti and reduce suitability for malaria transmission by Anopheles gambiae. Environmentally driven changes in disease dynamics will be complex and multifaceted, but given that current public efforts are targeted to malaria control, we highlight Ae aegypti and dengue, chikungunya, and other arboviruses as potential emerging public health threats in sub-Saharan Africa.

Understanding the Mechanisms Underlying Host Restriction of Insect-Specific Viruses

Arthropod-borne viruses contribute significantly to global mortality and morbidity in humans and animals. These viruses are mainly transmitted between susceptible vertebrate hosts by hematophagous arthropod vectors, especially mosquitoes. Recently, there has been substantial attention for a novel group of viruses, referred to as insect-specific viruses (ISVs) which are exclusively maintained in mosquito populations. Recent discoveries of novel insect-specific viruses over the past years generated a great interest not only in their potential use as vaccine and diagnostic platforms but also as novel biological control agents due to their ability to modulate arbovirus transmission. While arboviruses infect both vertebrate and invertebrate hosts, the replication of insect-specific viruses is restricted in vertebrates at multiple stages of virus replication. The vertebrate restriction factors include the genetic elements of ISVs (structural and non-structural genes and the untranslated terminal regions), vertebrate host factors (agonists and antagonists), and the temperature-dependent microenvironment. A better understanding of these bottlenecks is thus warranted. In this review, we explore these factors and the complex interplay between ISVs and their hosts contributing to this host restriction phenomenon.

A temperature-driven model for potato yellow vein virus transmission efficacy by Trialeurodes vaporariorum (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae)

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Transmission of potato yellow vein virus by a single whitefly vector was found to be highly temperature dependent.

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A non-linear mathematical function to describe the relationship between temperature and transmission likelihood was developed.

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A virus risk index was created by combining the virus transmission function and a whitefly phenology model.

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Detailed maps were generated indicating the risk of virus transmission using current and predicted future climate scenarios.

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Maps were used for surveillance of high-risk areas outside the known geographic range of the virus, leading to its discovery in a new region.

Management of viral plant diseases can be improved by using models to predict disease spread. Potato yellow vein virus (PYVV) of the genus Crinivirus (Closteroviridae) is transmitted in a semi-persistent manner by the greenhouse whitefly Trialeurodes vaporariorum (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae). Although several approaches exist for modeling insect population growth, modeling vector-born virus spread remains difficult because fundamental knowledge on the relationship between virus transmission and temperature is lacking for most vector transmitted viruses. To address this challenge, we initially developed a temperature-dependent phenology model for the whitefly vector using the Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM) software. In the present study, the effect of temperature on the efficiency of virus transmission by the whitefly was determined through controlled laboratory experiments at 8 constant temperatures in the range from 10 to 25 °C. The vector capacity to transmit the virus was highest at 15 °C (about 70 % probability of infection) but decreased radically as temperature deviated from this optimum temperature to <10 % at temperatures of 10 and 20 °C, respectively. The temperature-dependent probability of virus transmission by a single adult whitefly could be described by a nonlinear function, which was validated by transmission frequencies observed at fluctuating temperatures. This function combined with life table parameters calculated from previously established temperature-dependent phenology model for the vector provided a full temperature-responsive model for predicting PYVV spread potential and transmission probabilities. For spatial risk predictions, we devised two virus transmission risk indexes and tested their performance in correctly predicting virus presence/absence with field survey data. The best performing risk index was used to generate risk maps, which reflected well the current (real) occurrence of the virus but also predicted areas at high risk, where the virus has not previously been reported. One of them in western Panama was targeted for surveillance and resulted in identification of the virus in the country, where it was not previously known to occur. Simulated risk maps for the year 2050 revealed that climate change may significantly affect, the risk of distribution, generally reducing in tropical areas of the world, but increasing in the temperate regions.

The effect of climate change on yellow fever disease burden in Africa

Yellow Fever (YF) is an arbovirus endemic in tropical regions of South America and Africa and it is estimated to cause 78,000 deaths a year in Africa alone. Climate change may have substantial effects on the transmission of YF and we present the first analysis of the potential impact on disease burden. We extend an existing model of YF transmission to account for rainfall and a temperature suitability index and project transmission intensity across the African endemic region in the context of four climate change scenarios. We use these transmission projections to assess the change in burden in 2050 and 2070. We find disease burden changes heterogeneously across the region. In the least severe scenario, we find a 93.0%[95%CI(92.7, 93.2%)] chance that annual deaths will increase in 2050. This change in epidemiology will complicate future control efforts. Thus, we may need to consider the effect of changing climatic variables on future intervention strategies.

AeDES: a next-generation monitoring and forecasting system for environmental suitability of Aedes-borne disease transmission

Aedes-borne diseases, such as dengue and chikungunya, are responsible for more than 50 million infections worldwide every year, with an overall increase of 30-fold in the last 50 years, mainly due to city population growth, more frequent travels and ecological changes. In the United States of America, the vast majority of Aedes-borne infections are imported from endemic regions by travelers, who can become new sources of mosquito infection upon their return home if the exposed population is susceptible to the disease, and if suitable environmental conditions for the mosquitoes and the virus are present. Since the susceptibility of the human population can be determined via periodic monitoring campaigns, the environmental suitability for the presence of mosquitoes and viruses becomes one of the most important pieces of information for decision makers in the health sector. We present a next-generation monitoring and forecasting system for [Formula: see text]-borne diseases' environmental suitability (AeDES) of transmission in the conterminous United States and transboundary regions, using calibrated ento-epidemiological models, climate models and temperature observations. After analyzing the seasonal predictive skill of AeDES, we briefly consider the recent Zika epidemic, and the compound effects of the current Central American dengue outbreak happening during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, to illustrate how a combination of tailored deterministic and probabilistic forecasts can inform key prevention and control strategies .

Age influences the thermal suitability of Plasmodium falciparum transmission in the Asian malaria vector Anopheles stephensi

Models predicting disease transmission are vital tools for long-term planning of malaria reduction efforts, particularly for mitigating impacts of climate change. We compared temperature-dependent malaria transmission models when mosquito life-history traits were estimated from a truncated portion of the lifespan (a common practice) versus traits measured across the full lifespan. We conducted an experiment on adult female Anopheles stephensi, the Asian urban malaria mosquito, to generate daily per capita values for mortality, egg production and biting rate at six constant temperatures. Both temperature and age significantly affected trait values. Further, we found quantitative and qualitative differences between temperature-trait relationships estimated from truncated data versus observed lifetime values. Incorporating these temperature-trait relationships into an expression governing the thermal suitability of transmission, relative R₀(T), resulted in minor differences in the breadth of suitable temperatures for Plasmodium falciparum transmission between the two models constructed from only An. stephensi trait data. However, we found a substantial increase in thermal niche breadth compared with a previously published model consisting of trait data from multiple Anopheles mosquito species. Overall, this work highlights the importance of considering how mosquito trait values vary with mosquito age and mosquito species when generating temperature-based suitability predictions of transmission.

The effects of climate change on infectious diseases with cutaneous manifestations

Background

Anthropogenic climate change affects the burden of infectious diseases via several interconnected mechanisms. In recent years, there has been greater awareness of the ways in which climate-sensitive infectious diseases pose a growing threat to global public health.

Objective

This study aimed to categorize and describe the effects of climate change on infectious diseases with skin manifestations.

Methods

A scoping review of the MEDLINE and PubMed online databases for climate-sensitive infections was performed in February and March 2020. A representative selection of conditions with skin manifestations was included in this review.

Results

Several representative climate-sensitive infectious diseases were identified in each of the following categories: vector-borne infectious diseases, infectious diseases associated with extreme weather events, and infectious diseases linked to human migration.

Conclusion

Climate variables directly influence the survival and reproduction of infectious microorganisms, their vectors, and their animal reservoirs. Due to sustained warmer temperatures at higher latitudes, climate change has expanded the geographic range of certain pathogenic microbes. More frequent climate change-related extreme weather events create circumstances where existing infectious microorganisms flourish and novel infections emerge. Climate instability is linked to increased human migration, which disrupts health care infrastructure as well as the habitats of microbes, vectors, and animal reservoirs and leads to widespread poverty and overcrowding. Dermatologists should understand that climate change will affect the burden and geographic distribution of infectious diseases, many of which have cutaneous signs and might be encountered in their regular practice.

Potential for Zika virus transmission by mosquitoes in temperate climates

Mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission has almost exclusively been detected in the tropics despite the distributions of its primary vectors extending farther into temperate regions. Therefore, it is unknown whether ZIKV's range has reached a temperature-dependent limit, or if it can spread into temperate climates. Using field-collected mosquitoes for biological relevance, we found that two common temperate mosquito species, Aedes albopictus and Ochlerotatus detritus, were competent for ZIKV. We orally exposed mosquitoes to ZIKV and held them at between 17 and 31°C, estimated the time required for mosquitoes to become infectious, and applied these data to a ZIKV spatial risk model. We identified a minimum temperature threshold for the transmission of ZIKV by mosquitoes between 17 and 19°C. Using these data, we generated standardized basic reproduction number R₀-based risk maps and we derived estimates for the length of the transmission season for recent and future climate conditions. Our standardized R₀-based risk maps show potential risk of ZIKV transmission beyond the current observed range in southern USA, southern China and southern European countries. Transmission risk is simulated to increase over southern and Eastern Europe, northern USA and temperate regions of Asia (northern China, southern Japan) in future climate scenarios.

Quantifying sociodemographic heterogeneities in the distribution of Aedes aegypti among California households

The spread of Aedes aegypti in California and other regions of the U.S. has increased the need to understand the potential for local chains of Ae. aegypti-borne virus transmission, particularly in arid regions where the ecology of these mosquitoes is less understood. For public health and vector control programs, it is helpful to know whether variation in risk of local transmission can be attributed to socio-demographic factors that could help to target surveillance and control programs. Socio-demographic factors have been shown to influence transmission risk of dengue virus outside the U.S. by modifying biting rates and vector abundance. In regions of the U.S. where Ae. aegypti have recently invaded and where residential areas are structured differently than those in the tropics where Ae. aegypti are endemic, it is unclear how socio-demographic factors modify the abundance of Ae. aegypti populations. Understanding heterogeneities among households in Ae. aegypti abundance will provide a better understanding of local vectorial capacity and is an important component of understanding risk of local Ae. aegypti-borne virus transmission. We conducted a cross-sectional study in Los Angeles County, California during summer 2017 to understand the causes of variation in relative abundance of Ae. aegypti among households. We surveyed 161 houses, representing a wide range of incomes. Surveys consisted of systematic adult mosquito collections, inspections of households and properties, and administration of a questionnaire in English or Spanish. Adult Ae. aegypti were detected at 72% of households overall and were found indoors at 12% of households. An average of 3.1 Ae. aegypti were collected per household. Ae. aegypti abundance outdoors was higher in lower-income neighborhoods and around older households with larger outdoor areas, greater densities of containers with standing water, less frequent yard maintenance, and greater air-conditioner use. We also found that Ae. aegypti abundance indoors was higher in households that had less window and door screening, less air-conditioner usage, more potted plants indoors, more rain-exposed containers around the home, and lower neighborhood human population densities. Our results indicate that, in the areas of southern California studied, there are behavioral and socio-demographic determinants of Ae. aegypti abundance, and that low-income households could be at higher risk for exposure to Ae. aegypti biting and potentially greater risk for Zika, dengue, and chikungunya virus transmission if a local outbreak were to occur.

Age-structured vectorial capacity reveals timing, not magnitude of within-mosquito dynamics is critical for arbovirus fitness assessment

Background

Transmission dynamics of arboviruses like Zika virus are often evaluated by vector competence (the proportion of infectious vectors given exposure) and the extrinsic incubation period (EIP, the time it takes for a vector to become infectious), but vector age is another critical driver of transmission dynamics. Vectorial capacity (VC) is a measure of transmission potential of a vector-pathogen system, but how these three components, EIP, vector competence and vector age, affect VC in concert still needs study.

Methods

The interaction of vector competence, EIP, and mosquito age at the time of infection acquisition (Age_acquisition) was experimentally measured in an Aedes aegypti-ZIKV model system, as well as the age-dependence of probability of survival and the willingness to bite. An age-structured vectorial capacity framework (VC_age) was then developed using both EIP_Min and EIP_Max, defined as the time to first observed minimum proportion of transmitting mosquitoes and the time to observed maximum proportion of transmitting mosquitoes.

Results

The within-mosquito dynamics of vector competence/EIP were not significant among treatments where mosquitoes were exposed at different ages. However, VC_age revealed: (i) age-dependence in vector-virus interactions is important for transmission success; (ii) lower vector competence but at shorter EIPs was sufficient for transmission perpetuation; and (iii) R₀ may be overestimated by using non-age-structured VC.

Conclusions

The results indicate that ultimately the temporal component of the virus-vector dynamics is most critical, especially when exposure occurred at advanced mosquito age. While our study is limited to a single virus-vector system, and a multitude of other factors affect both vector competence and mosquito mortality, our methods can be extrapolated to these other scenarios. Results indicate that how ‘highly’ or ‘negligibly’ competent vectors are categorized may need adjustment.

Temperature Dramatically Shapes Mosquito Gene Expression With Consequences for Mosquito-Zika Virus Interactions

Vector-borne flaviviruses are emerging threats to human health. For successful transmission, the virus needs to efficiently enter mosquito cells and replicate within and escape several tissue barriers while mosquitoes elicit major transcriptional responses to flavivirus infection. This process will be affected not only by the specific mosquito-pathogen pairing but also by variation in key environmental variables such as temperature. Thus far, few studies have examined the molecular responses triggered by temperature and how these responses modify infection outcomes, despite substantial evidence showing strong relationships between temperature and transmission in a diversity of systems. To define the host transcriptional changes associated with temperature variation during the early infection process, we compared the transcriptome of mosquito midgut samples from mosquitoes exposed to Zika virus (ZIKV) and non-exposed mosquitoes housed at three different temperatures (20, 28, and 36°C). While the high-temperature samples did not show significant changes from those with standard rearing conditions (28°C) 48 h post-exposure, the transcriptome profile of mosquitoes housed at 20°C was dramatically different. The expression of genes most altered by the cooler temperature involved aspects of blood-meal digestion, ROS metabolism, and mosquito innate immunity. Further, we did not find significant differences in the viral RNA copy number between 24 and 48 h post-exposure at 20°C, suggesting that ZIKV replication is limited by cold-induced changes to the mosquito midgut environment. In ZIKV-exposed mosquitoes, vitellogenin, a lipid carrier protein, was most up-regulated at 20°C. Our results provide a deeper understanding of the temperature-triggered transcriptional changes in Aedes aegypti and can be used to further define the molecular mechanisms driven by environmental temperature variation.

Short Report: Asymptomatic Zika virus infections with low viral loads not likely to establish transmission in New Orleans Aedes populations

Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are both vectors of Zika virus and both are endemic to the New Orleans Metropolitan area. Fortunately, to date there has been no known autochthonous transmission of Zika virus in New Orleans. No studies of the vector competence of local populations of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus for Zika virus transmission have been conducted. To determine if New Orleans Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes are competent for Zika virus, mosquitoes were reared to generation F3 from eggs collected in New Orleans during the 2018 mosquito season. Adults were fed an infectious blood meal and kept for 15 days in an environmental chamber. Transmission assays were conducted at 4, 10, and 15 days post exposure and RT-PCR was run on bodies and saliva to detect the presence of Zika virus RNA. We observed remarkably low susceptibility of both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus from New Orleans to a Zika strain from Panama after oral challenge. These results suggest a limited risk of Zika virus transmission should it be introduced to the New Orleans area, and may partially explain why no transmission was detected in Louisiana during the 2016 epidemic in the Americas, despite multiple known travel associated introductions to New Orleans. Despite these results these mosquito populations are known to be competent vectors for some other mosquito-borne viruses and control measures should not be relaxed.

Comparison of Chikungunya Virus and Zika Virus Replication and Transmission Dynamics in Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) are arthropod-borne viruses transmitted mainly by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. These viruses have become endemic in large parts of North, Central, and South America. Arboviruses persistently infect mosquitoes throughout their life span and become infectious (i.e., expectorate infectious virus in saliva) after a period of time called the extrinsic incubation period (EIP). The duration of this infectiousness, however, is not well characterized. This is an important shortcoming because many epidemiological models assume that mosquitoes continue to be infectious for the duration of their life span. To define the duration of infectiousness for CHIKV and ZIKV, mosquitoes were infected orally with these viruses. Every 2 days, legs/wings, midguts, salivary glands, and saliva were collected from 30 to 60 mosquitoes and viral load measured. In CHIKV-infected mosquitoes, infectious virus in saliva peaked early (2–4 dpi), and then decreased rapidly and was rarely observed after 10 dpi. Viral RNA in infected tissues also decreased after the initial peak (4–8 dpi) but did so much less drastically. In ZIKV-infected mosquitoes, the infectious virus in saliva peaked at 12–14 dpi and dropped off only slightly after 14 dpi. In infected tissues, viral RNA increased early during infection, and then plateaued after 6–10 days. Our findings suggest that significant variation exists in the duration of the infectious period for arboviruses that is in part influenced by virus clearance from expectorated saliva.

Vector competence of Aedes aegypti from New Caledonia for the four recent circulating dengue virus serotypes

In New Caledonia (NC), Aedes aegypti is the only proven vector of dengue virus (DENV), which is the most prevalent arbovirosis in NC. Since World War II, the four DENV serotypes have circulated regularly in NC. The epidemiological profile, however, has evolved over the last ten years, with the persistence of DENV-1 circulation and the co-circulation of several DENV serotypes. The current study evaluated the ability of Ae. aegypti from NC to transmit four DENV serotypes (and two DENV-1 genotypes) isolated during recent outbreaks in NC. An Ae. aegypti F1 generation was twice independently orally challenged with each DENV strain (10⁷ FFU/ml). Infection, dissemination and transmission rates and transmission efficiency were measured at day 7 and 14 post-exposure, as well as the quantity of infectious virus particles. Mosquito infection was observed as early as 7 days post-infection. Infection rates between 18 and 58% were measured for all DENV serotypes/genotypes tested. Although dissemination rates ranged from 78 to 100%, transmission efficiencies were low, with values not exceeding 21% at 14 days post-infection for all DENV strains. This study shows that NC Ae. aegypti are moderately competent for DENV in laboratory conditions. In link with epidemiological data, these results suggest implication of other factors in the sustained circulation of DENV-1 in New Caledonia.

Aedes aegypti is the only known vector for dengue virus (DENV) in New Caledonia (NC). DENV are divided into four serotypes (DENV-1 to -4), based on their antigenic properties, these being subdivided into different genotypes. All four DENV serotypes have regularly circulated in New Caledonia in the past. An unusual persistence of DENV-1 has been observed during the last ten years, suggesting a possible preferential transmission of this DENV serotype by Ae. aegypti. In this study, we examine for the first time the ability of Ae. aegypti from New Caledonia to transmit the four circulating DENV serotypes, and more precisely two genotypes of DENV-1. Our results demonstrate that this vector is moderately competent for DENV, with slight differences observed between DENV serotype/genotype in terms of transmission. These findings suggest that other factors are at play in the sustained circulation of DENV-1 and that further vector-virus interactions studies should be undertaken to better understand the DENV epidemiological profile in NC.

The invasive Asian bush mosquito Aedes japonicus found in the Netherlands can experimentally transmit Zika virus and Usutu virus

Background

The Asian bush mosquito Aedes japonicus is invading Europe and was first discovered in Lelystad, the Netherlands in 2013, where it has established a permanent population. In this study, we investigated the vector competence of Ae. japonicus from the Netherlands for the emerging Zika virus (ZIKV) and zoonotic Usutu virus (USUV). ZIKV causes severe congenital microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome in humans. USUV is closely related to West Nile virus, has recently spread throughout Europe and is causing mass mortality of birds. USUV infection in humans can result in clinical manifestations ranging from mild disease to severe neurological impairments.

Methodology/Principal findings

In our study, field-collected Ae. japonicus females received an infectious blood meal with ZIKV or USUV by droplet feeding. After 14 days at 28°C, 3% of the ZIKV-blood fed mosquitoes and 13% of the USUV-blood fed mosquitoes showed virus-positive saliva, indicating that Ae. japonicus can transmit both viruses. To investigate the effect of the mosquito midgut barrier on virus transmission, female mosquitoes were intrathoracically injected with ZIKV or USUV. Of the injected mosquitoes, 96% (ZIKV) and 88% (USUV) showed virus-positive saliva after 14 days at 28°C. This indicates that ZIKV and USUV can efficiently replicate in Ae. japonicus but that a strong midgut barrier is normally restricting virus dissemination. Small RNA deep sequencing of orally infected mosquitoes confirmed active replication of ZIKV and USUV, as demonstrated by potent small interfering RNA responses against both viruses. Additionally, de novo small RNA assembly revealed the presence of a novel narnavirus in Ae. japonicus.

Conclusions/Significance

Given that Ae. japonicus can experimentally transmit arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) like ZIKV and USUV and is currently expanding its territories, we should consider this mosquito as a potential vector for arboviral diseases in Europe.

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) cause a high disease burden in humans and animals. Zika virus (ZIKV) causes microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome in humans, whereas Usutu virus (USUV) induces high mortality in birds and neurological disease in humans. The spread of arboviruses such as ZIKV and USUV is determined by the presence of mosquitoes that can transmit these viruses from one vertebrate host to the next. Here, we investigate the risk of transmission of ZIKV and USUV by the Asian bush mosquito Aedes japonicus. This mosquito is invading Europe and is currently present in the Netherlands. We found that field-collected Ae. japonicus mosquitoes can experimentally transmit ZIKV and USUV. Of the orally infected mosquitoes, 3% (ZIKV) and 13% (USUV) showed virus-positive saliva after 14 days at 28°C. We also found that ZIKV and USUV activated the antiviral RNA interference immune response of Ae. japonicus. Moreover, a strong barrier in the mosquito midgut restricted virus dissemination, since 96% (ZIKV) and 88% (USUV) of the mosquitoes injected with ZIKV or USUV showed virus-positive saliva. Additionally, we discovered a narnavirus in Ae. japonicus. Given that Ae. japonicus can transmit ZIKV and USUV, we should consider this mosquito as a potential vector for arboviral diseases in Europe.

Impact of temperature on the extrinsic incubation period of Zika virus in Aedes aegypti

Since Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged as a global human health threat, numerous studies have pointed to Aedes aegypti as the primary vector due to its high competence and propensity to feed on humans. The majority of vector competence studies have been conducted between 26-28°C, but arboviral extrinsic incubation periods (EIPs), and therefore transmission efficiency, are known to be affected strongly by temperature. To better understand the relationship between ZIKV EIPs and temperature, we evaluated the effect of adult mosquito exposure temperature on ZIKV infection, dissemination, and transmission in Ae. aegypti at four temperatures: 18°C, 21°C, 26°C, and 30°C. Mosquitoes were exposed to viremic mice infected with a 2015 Puerto Rican ZIKV strain, and engorged mosquitoes were sorted into the four temperatures with 80% RH and constant access to 10% sucrose. ZIKV infection, dissemination, and transmission rates were assessed via RT-qPCR from individual mosquito bodies, legs and wings, and saliva, respectively, at three to five time points per temperature from three to 31 days, based on expectations from other flavivirus EIPs. The median time from ZIKV ingestion to transmission (median EIP, EIP50) at each temperature was estimated by fitting a generalized linear mixed model for each temperature. EIP50 ranged from 5.1 days at 30°C to 24.2 days at 21°C. At 26°C, EIP50 was 9.6 days. At 18°C, only 15% transmitted by day 31 so EIP50 could not be estimated. This is among the first studies to characterize the effects of temperature on ZIKV EIP in Ae. aegypti, and the first to do so based on feeding of mosquitoes on a live, viremic host. This information is critical for modeling ZIKV transmission dynamics to understand geographic and seasonal limits of ZIKV risk; it is especially relevant for determining risk in subtropical regions with established Ae. aegypti populations and relatively high rates of return travel from the tropics (e.g. California or Florida), as these regions typically experience cooler temperature ranges than tropical regions.

Climate change and viral emergence: evidence from Aedes-borne arboviruses

Climate change is leading to increases in global temperatures and erratic precipitation patterns, both of which are contributing to the expansion of mosquito-borne arboviruses and the populations of the mosquitos that vector them. Herein, we review recent evidence of emergence and expansion of arboviruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitos that has been driven in part by environmental changes. We present as a case study of recent work from Córdoba, Argentina, where dengue has been actively emerging in the past decade. We review recent empirical and modeling studies that aim to understand the impact of climate on future expansion of arboviruses, and we highlight gaps in empirical studies linking climate to arbovirus transmission at regional levels.

Increased temperatures reduce the vectorial capacity of Aedes mosquitoes for Zika virus

Rapid and significant range expansion of both Zika virus (ZIKV) and its Aedes vector species has resulted in ZIKV being declared a global health threat. Mean temperatures are projected to increase globally, likely resulting in alterations of the transmission potential of mosquito-borne pathogens. To understand the effect of diurnal temperature range on the vectorial capacity of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus for ZIKV, longevity, blood-feeding and vector competence were assessed at two temperature regimes following feeding on infectious blood meals. Higher temperatures resulted in decreased longevity of Ae. aegypti [Log-rank test, χ2, df 35.66, 5, P < 0.001] and a decrease in blood-feeding rates of Ae. albopictus [Fisher's exact test, P < 0.001]. Temperature had a population and species-specific impact on ZIKV infection rates. Overall, Ae. albopictus reared at the lowest temperature regime demonstrated the highest vectorial capacity (0.53) and the highest transmission efficiency (57%). Increased temperature decreased vectorial capacity across groups yet more significant effects were measured with Ae. aegypti relative to Ae. albopictus. The results of this study suggest that future increases in temperature in the Americas could significantly impact vector competence, blood-feeding and longevity, and potentially decrease the overall vectorial capacity of Aedes mosquitoes in the Americas.

Impact of weather seasonality and sexual transmission on the spread of Zika fever

We establish a compartmental model to study the transmission of Zika virus disease including spread through sexual contacts and the role of asymptomatic carriers. To incorporate the impact of the seasonality of weather on the spread of Zika, we apply a nonautonomous model with time-dependent mosquito birth rate and biting rate, which allows us to explain the differing outcome of the epidemic in different countries of South America: using Latin Hypercube Sampling for fitting, we were able to reproduce the different outcomes of the disease in various countries. Sensitivity analysis shows that, although the most important factors in Zika transmission are the birth rate of mosquitoes and the transmission rate from mosquitoes to humans, spread through sexual contacts also highly contributes to the transmission of Zika virus: our study suggests that the practice of safe sex among those who have possibly contracted the disease, can significantly reduce the number of Zika cases.

Vector distribution and transmission risk of the Zika virus in South and Central America

Background

Zika is of great medical relevance due to its rapid geographical spread in 2015 and 2016 in South America and its serious implications, for example, certain birth defects. Recent epidemics urgently require a better understanding of geographic patterns of the Zika virus transmission risk. This study aims to map the Zika virus transmission risk in South and Central America. We applied the maximum entropy approach, which is common for species distribution modelling, but is now also widely in use for estimating the geographical distribution of infectious diseases.

Methods

As predictor variables we used a set of variables considered to be potential drivers of both direct and indirect effects on the emergence of Zika. Specifically, we considered (a) the modelled habitat suitability for the two main vector species Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus as a proxy of vector species distributions; (b) temperature, as it has a great influence on virus transmission; (c) commonly called evidence consensus maps (ECM) of human Zika virus infections on a regional scale as a proxy for virus distribution; (d) ECM of human dengue virus infections and, (e) as possibly relevant socio-economic factors, population density and the gross domestic product.

Results

The highest values for the Zika transmission risk were modelled for the eastern coast of Brazil as well as in Central America, moderate values for the Amazon basin and low values for southern parts of South America. The following countries were modelled to be particularly affected: Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Puerto Rico and Venezuela. While modelled vector habitat suitability as predictor variable showed the highest contribution to the transmission risk model, temperature of the warmest quarter contributed only comparatively little. Areas with optimal temperature conditions for virus transmission overlapped only little with areas of suitable habitat conditions for the two main vector species. Instead, areas with the highest transmission risk were characterised as areas with temperatures below the optimum of the virus, but high habitat suitability modelled for the two main vector species.

Conclusion

Modelling approaches can help estimating the spatial and temporal dynamics of a disease. We focused on the key drivers relevant in the Zika transmission cycle (vector, pathogen, and hosts) and integrated each single component into the model. Despite the uncertainties generally associated with modelling, the approach applied in this study can be used as a tool and assist decision making and managing the spread of Zika.

Correlation of the basic reproduction number (R0) and eco-environmental variables in Colombian municipalities with chikungunya outbreaks during 2014-2016

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) emerged in Colombia in 2014 into a population presumed fully susceptible. This resulted in a quick and intense spread across Colombia, resulting in an epidemic that affected an estimated 450,000 people. The reported Colombian cases accounted for over 49% of all the cases reported to the PAHO. Eco-environmental factors are known to be associated with the spread of arboviruses such as CHIKV, and likely contribute to the differences in transmission profiles that were observed across several municipalities. To determine the association of eco-environmental factors and CHIKV, the basic reproduction number (R₀) in 85 municipalities, which accounted for 65.6% of reported CHIKV cases in Colombia, was estimated. Estimates of R₀ ranged from 1 to 9, where over 76% of municipalities had R₀ values between 1 and 2. When we looked at the distribution of R₀, the cumulative proportions were 20% with R₀>2, 14% with R₀>3, and 9% with R₀>4. Next, we determined that there were different patterns of correlation between environmental and/or ecological variables and R₀ when we considered different R₀ lower-thresholds. Broadly, we found that temperature-related variables are significantly and positively correlated to R₀ regardless of the lower threshold, while other variables like duration of outbreak and size of the urban area are inversely related to R₀. Specifically, we conclude that high values of temperature-related variables where R₀ > 1 will result in a fast growth of cases in a shorter time period (with faster cessation of outbreak transmission) but will result overall in a fewer total cases compared to outbreak areas (R₀ > 1, but classified as lower). Thus, in the absence of vector control, a less explosive outbreak may be more advantageous for the virus in terms of transmission.

Chikungunya virus emerged in Colombia in 2014 into a presumed fully susceptible population and rapidly spread in the country. Numerous municipalities were differently affected by this virus across the country. The main purpose of this work was understanding why those differences were produced and, in turn, what are the variables addressing such differences. For this purpose, we estimated for 85 municipalities the basic reproduction number (R₀), a crucial parameter to understand epidemics that is expressed as the number of secondary cases produced by a primary case. Such parameter was correlated with numerous variables resulting evident a crucial role of temperature in the increase of R₀. Interestingly, other variables like size of the urban area and cases showed to be negatively correlated with R₀. Results shows that high temperatures produce high R₀, but those municipalities that showed high R₀ showed an explosive epidemic with faster increase of cases that ceased equally fast, so the duration of epidemic is short producing small amount of cases. In this way, more cases are expected with municipalities with lower values of R₀, which is suitably explained by the tortoise-hare model, where the less explosive outbreak results to be more advantageous for the virus.

Pathogen exposure disrupts an organism's ability to cope with thermal stress

As a result of global climate change, species are experiencing an escalation in the severity and regularity of extreme thermal events. With patterns of disease distribution and transmission predicted to undergo considerable shifts in the coming years, the interplay between temperature and pathogen exposure will likely determine the capacity of a population to persist under the dual threat of global change and infectious disease. In this study, we investigated how exposure to a pathogen affects an individual's ability to cope with extreme temperatures. Using experimental infections of Daphnia magna with its obligate bacterial pathogen Pasteuria ramosa, we measured upper thermal limits of multiple host and pathogen genotype combinations across the dynamic process of infection and under various forms (static and ramping) of thermal stress. We find that pathogens substantially limit the thermal tolerance of their host, with the reduction in upper thermal limits on par with the breadth of variation seen across similar species entire geographical ranges. The precise magnitude of any reduction, however, was specific to the host and pathogen genotype combination. In addition, as thermal ramping rate slowed, upper thermal limits of both healthy and infected individuals were reduced. Our results suggest that the capacity of a population to evolve new thermal limits, when also faced with the threat of infection, will depend not only on a host's genetic variability in warmer environments, but also on the frequency of host and pathogen genotypes. We suggest that pathogen-induced alterations of host thermal performance should be taken into account when assessing the resilience of any population and its potential for adaptation to global change.

The Role of Temperature in Transmission of Zoonotic Arboviruses

We reviewed the literature on the role of temperature in transmission of zoonotic arboviruses. Vector competence is affected by both direct and indirect effects of temperature, and generally increases with increasing temperature, but results may vary by vector species, population, and viral strain. Temperature additionally has a significant influence on life history traits of vectors at both immature and adult life stages, and for important behaviors such as blood-feeding and mating. Similar to vector competence, temperature effects on life history traits can vary by species and population. Vector, host, and viral distributions are all affected by temperature, and are generally expected to change with increased temperatures predicted under climate change. Arboviruses are generally expected to shift poleward and to higher elevations under climate change, yet significant variability on fine geographic scales is likely. Temperature effects are generally unimodal, with increases in abundance up to an optimum, and then decreases at high temperatures. Improved vector distribution information could facilitate future distribution modeling. A wide variety of approaches have been used to model viral distributions, although most research has focused on the West Nile virus. Direct temperature effects are frequently observed, as are indirect effects, such as through droughts, where temperature interacts with rainfall. Thermal biology approaches hold much promise for syntheses across viruses, vectors, and hosts, yet future studies must consider the specificity of interactions and the dynamic nature of evolving biological systems.

Thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease

Mosquito-borne diseases cause a major burden of disease worldwide. The vital rates of these ectothermic vectors and parasites respond strongly and nonlinearly to temperature and therefore to climate change. Here, we review how trait-based approaches can synthesise and mechanistically predict the temperature dependence of transmission across vectors, pathogens, and environments. We present 11 pathogens transmitted by 15 different mosquito species - including globally important diseases like malaria, dengue, and Zika - synthesised from previously published studies. Transmission varied strongly and unimodally with temperature, peaking at 23-29ºC and declining to zero below 9-23ºC and above 32-38ºC. Different traits restricted transmission at low versus high temperatures, and temperature effects on transmission varied by both mosquito and parasite species. Temperate pathogens exhibit broader thermal ranges and cooler thermal minima and optima than tropical pathogens. Among tropical pathogens, malaria and Ross River virus had lower thermal optima (25-26ºC) while dengue and Zika viruses had the highest (29ºC) thermal optima. We expect warming to increase transmission below thermal optima but decrease transmission above optima. Key directions for future work include linking mechanistic models to field transmission, combining temperature effects with control measures, incorporating trait variation and temperature variation, and investigating climate adaptation and migration.

Mosquito and primate ecology predict human risk of yellow fever virus spillover in Brazil

Many (re)emerging infectious diseases in humans arise from pathogen spillover from wildlife or livestock, and accurately predicting pathogen spillover is an important public health goal. In the Americas, yellow fever in humans primarily occurs following spillover from non-human primates via mosquitoes. Predicting yellow fever spillover can improve public health responses through vector control and mass vaccination. Here, we develop and test a mechanistic model of pathogen spillover to predict human risk for yellow fever in Brazil. This environmental risk model, based on the ecology of mosquito vectors and non-human primate hosts, distinguished municipality-months with yellow fever spillover from 2001 to 2016 with high accuracy (AUC = 0.72). Incorporating hypothesized cyclical dynamics of infected primates improved accuracy (AUC = 0.79). Using boosted regression trees to identify gaps in the mechanistic model, we found that important predictors include current and one-month lagged environmental risk, vaccine coverage, population density, temperature and precipitation. More broadly, we show that for a widespread human viral pathogen, the ecological interactions between environment, vectors, reservoir hosts and humans can predict spillover with surprising accuracy, suggesting the potential to improve preventive action to reduce yellow fever spillover and avert onward epidemics in humans. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.