Determination of serum antibodies against swine-origin influenza A virus H1N1/09 by immunofluorescence, haemagglutination inhibition, and by neutralization tests: how is the prevalence rate of protecting antibodies in humans?

Comparison of immunogenicity between candidate influenza A(H3N2) virus vaccine strains in Japan: A randomized controlled trial using a monovalent vaccine of A/Saitama/103/2014 (CEXP-002) and A/Hong Kong/4801/2014 (X-263)

BACKGROUND

For the 2017-18 influenza season, A/Saitama/103/2014 (CEXP-002) (Saitama strain) was antigenically more similar to prior circulating strains than A/Hong Kong/4801/2014 (X-263) (Hong Kong strain) in a ferret model and was selected as the A(H3N2) vaccine virus strain in Japan. However, the Saitama strain grew poorly, and the Japanese government switched to the Hong Kong strain, raising public concerns of poor effectiveness. To enhance understanding of the correlation between antigenicity in experimental models and immunogenicity, as a surrogate measure of vaccine effectiveness, in the human population, we compared the immunogenicity of specially-prepared single dose monovalent influenza A(H3N2) vaccines containing the Saitama or the Hong Kong strain.

METHODS

A randomized controlled trial of 100 healthy adults aged 20-64 years (n = 50/group) was conducted. Virus neutralization assay was performed on sera from days 0 (pre-vaccination) and 21 (post-vaccination). Geometric mean titer (GMT), mean fold rise (MFR), seroconversion proportion (SCP), and seroprotection proportion (SPP) were calculated for vaccine strains and a representative circulating A(H3N2) virus strain (A/Osaka/188/2017).

RESULTS

For the Hong Kong strain, post-vaccination GMT was significantly higher in the Hong Kong vaccine recipients (1:546 vs 1:260, p < 0.01), but MFR, SCP, and SPP were similar for both vaccine groups. For the Saitama strain, post-vaccination GMT (1:116 vs 1:61, p = 0.01) and SPP (86% vs 68%, p = 0.03) were significantly higher in the Hong Kong vaccine recipients, but MFR and SCP were similar for both vaccine groups. Against A/Osaka/188/2017, post-vaccination GMT and MFR were similar in both vaccine groups, but SCP (32% vs 4%, p < 0.01) and SPP (28% vs. 6%, p < 0.01) were significantly higher in the Hong Kong vaccine recipients.

CONCLUSION

The Hong Kong vaccine induced better or equivalent immunogenicity in comparison to the Saitama vaccine. Our trial showed that antigenic similarity in experimental models does not necessarily correlate with immunogenicity in the human population.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

UMIN000029293.

Comparison of influenza-specific neutralizing antibody titers determined using different assay readouts and hemagglutination inhibition titers: good correlation but poor agreement

Determination of influenza-specific antibody titers is commonly done using the hemagglutination inhibition assay (HAI) and the viral microneutralization assay (MN). Both assays are characterized by high intra- and inter-laboratory variability. The HAI assay offers little opportunity for standardization. For the MN assay, variability might be due to the use of different assay protocols employing different readouts. We therefore aimed at investigating which of the MN assay readout methods currently in use would be the most suitable choice for a standardized MN assay that could serve as a substitute for the HAI assay. For this purpose, human serum samples were tested for the presence of influenza specific neutralizing antibodies against A/California/7/09 H1N1 (49 sera) or A/Hong Kong/4801/2014 (50 sera) using four different infection readout methods for the MN assay (cytopathic effect, hemagglutination, ELISA, RT qPCR) and using the HAI assay. The results were compared by correlation analysis and by determining the level of agreement before and after normalization to a standard serum. Titers as measured by the 4 MN assay readouts showed good correlation, with high Person's r for most comparisons. However, agreement between nominal titers varied with readouts compared and virus strain used. In addition, Pearson's correlation of MN titers with HAI titers was high but agreement of nominal titers was moderate and the average difference between the readings of two assays (bias) was virus strain-dependent. Normalization to a standard serum did not result in better agreement of assay results. Our study demonstrates that different MN readouts result in nominally different antibody titers. Accordingly, the use of a common and standardized MN assay protocol will be crucial to minimize inter-laboratory variability. Based on reproducibility, cost effectiveness and unbiased assessment of results we elected the MN assay with ELISA readout as most suitable for a possible replacement of the HAI assay.

The Role of Pre-existing Cross-Reactive Central Memory CD4 T-Cells in Vaccination With Previously Unseen Influenza Strains

Influenza vaccination is a common approach to prevent seasonal and pandemic influenza. Pre-existing antibodies against close viral strains might impair antibody formation against previously unseen strains-a process called original antigenic sin. The role of this pre-existing cellular immunity in this process is, despite some hints from animal models, not clear. Here, we analyzed cellular and humoral immunity in healthy individuals before and after vaccination with seasonal influenza vaccine. Based on influenza-specific hemagglutination inhibiting (HI) titers, vaccinees were grouped into HI-negative and -positive cohorts followed by in-depth cytometric and TCR repertoire analysis. Both serological groups revealed cross-reactive T-cell memory to the vaccine strains at baseline that gave rise to the majority of vaccine-specific T-cells post vaccination. On the contrary, very limited number of vaccine-specific T-cell clones was recruited from the naive pool. Furthermore, baseline quantity of vaccine-specific central memory helper T-cells and clonotype richness of this population directly correlated with the vaccination efficacy. Our findings suggest that the deliberate recruitment of pre-existing cross-reactive cellular memory might help to improve vaccination outcome.

Calcium phosphate nanoparticle (CaPNP) for dose-sparing of inactivated whole virus pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 vaccine in mice

The emergence of pandemic influenza strains, particularly the reemergence of the swine-derived influenza A (H1N1) in 2009, is reaffirmation that influenza viruses are very adaptable and influenza remains as a significant global public health treat. As recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), the use of adjuvants is an attractive approach to improve vaccine efficacy and allow dose-sparing during an influenza emergency. In this study, we utilized CaPtivate Pharmaceutical's proprietary calcium phosphate nanoparticles (CaPNP) vaccine adjuvant and delivery platform to formulate an inactivated whole virus influenza A/CA/04/2009 (H1N1pdm) vaccine as a potential dose-sparing strategy. We evaluated the relative immunogenicity and the efficacy of the formulation in BALB/c mice following single intramuscularly administration of three different doses (0.3, 1, or 3µg based on HA content) of the vaccine in comparison to non-adjuvanted or alum-adjuvant vaccines. We showed that, addition of CaPNP in vaccine elicited significantly higher hemagglutination inhibition (HAI), virus neutralization (VN), and IgG antibody titers, at all dose levels, relative to the non-adjuvanted vaccine. In addition, the vaccine containing CaPNP provided equal protection with 1/3rd of the antigen dose as compared to the non-adjuvanted or alum-adjuvanted vaccines. Our data provided support to earlier studies indicating that CaPNP is an attractive vaccine adjuvant and delivery system and should play an important role in the development of safe and efficacious dose-sparing vaccines. Our findings also warrant further investigation to validate CaPNP's capacity as an alternative adjuvant to the ones currently licensed for influenza/pandemic influenza vaccination.

Age dependent differences in the kinetics of γδ T cells after influenza vaccination

Immunosenescence is a hallmark of the aging immune system and is considered the main cause of a reduced vaccine efficacy in the elderly. Although γδ T cells can become activated by recombinant influenza hemagglutinin, their age-related immunocompetence during a virus-induced immune response has so far not been investigated. In this study we evaluate the kinetics of γδ T cells after vaccination with the trivalent 2011/2012 northern hemisphere seasonal influenza vaccine. We applied multi-parametric flow cytometry to a cohort of 21 young (19-30 years) and 23 elderly (53-67 years) healthy individuals. Activated and proliferating γδ T cells, as identified by CD38 and Ki67 expression, were quantified on the days 0, 3, 7, 10, 14, 17, and 21. We observed a significantly lower number of activated and proliferating γδ T cells at baseline and following vaccination in elderly as compared to young individuals. The kinetics changes of activated γδ T cells were much stronger in the young, while corresponding changes in the elderly occurred slower. In addition, we observed an association between day 21 HAI titers of influenza A and the frequencies of Ki67+ γδ T cells at day 7 in the young. In conclusion, aging induces alterations of the γδ T cell response that might have negative implications for vaccination efficacy.

A comparison of hemagglutination inhibition and neutralization assays for characterizing immunity to seasonal influenza A

BACKGROUND

Serum antibody to influenza can be used to identify past exposure and measure current immune status. The two most common methods for measuring this are the hemagglutination inhibition assay (HI) and the viral neutralization assay (NT), which have not been systematically compared for a large number of influenza viruses.

METHODS

A total of 151 study participants from near Guangzhou, China, were enrolled in 2009 and provided serum. HI and NT assays were performed for 12 historic and recently circulating strains of seasonal influenza A. We compared titers using Spearman correlation and fit models to predict NT using HI results.

RESULTS

We observed high positive mean correlation between HI and NT assays (Spearman's rank correlation, ρ=.86) across all strains. Correlation was highest within subtypes and within close proximity in time. Overall, an HI=20 corresponded to NT=10, and HI=40 corresponded to NT=20. Linear regression of log(NT) on log(HI) was statistically significant, with age modifying this relationship. Strain-specific area under a curve (AUC) indicated good accuracy (>80%) for predicting NT with HI.

CONCLUSIONS

While we found high overall correspondence of titers between NT and HI assays for seasonal influenza A, no exact equivalence between assays could be determined. This was further complicated by correspondence between titers changing with age. These findings support generalized comparison of results between assays and give further support for use of the hemagglutination inhibition assay over the more resource intensive viral neutralization assay for seasonal influenza A, although attention should be given to the effect of age on these assays.

Influenza immunology evaluation and correlates of protection: a focus on vaccines

Vaccination is the most effective method of controlling seasonal influenza infections and preventing possible pandemic events. Although influenza vaccines have been licensed and used for decades, the potential correlates of protection induced by these vaccines are still a matter of discussion. Currently, inactivated vaccines are the most common and the haemagglutination inhibition antibody titer is regarded as an immunological correlate of protection and the best available parameter for predicting protection from influenza infection. However, the assay shows some limitations, such as its low sensitivity to B and avian strains and inter-laboratory variability. Additional assays and next-generation vaccines have been evaluated to overcome the limitations of the traditional serological techniques and to elicit broad immune responses, underlining the need to revise the current correlates of protection. The aim of this review is to provide an overview of the current scenario regarding the immunological evaluation and correlates of protection of influenza vaccines.

Comparison of diagnostic test performance in a population of high risk young adults versus a general population presenting with influenza

BACKGROUND

Upper respiratory tract infection (URI) is a well-documented cause of morbidity, extra expense and lost training time among basic military trainees (BMTs).

OBJECTIVES

The goal of this study is to better understand how influenza diagnostic tests perform in the BMT population, and how this performance differs from the general population.

STUDY DESIGN

Laboratory test data was collected in a prospective study that enrolled Department of Defense beneficiaries presenting to medical facilities in San Antonio, TX with URI symptoms between January 2005 and March 2011. Three laboratory tests for influenza were performed during the study period: polymerase chain reaction (PCR), enzyme immunoassay (EIA), and viral culture. Patients were grouped into BMT and non-BMT populations and the tests from each of these populations were compared for statistical differences. Similar comparisons were made with various sub-groups to include: influenza A versus influenza B, and influenza A subtypes: (H1N1) versus (H3N2) versus (H1N1)pdm09.

RESULTS

Among 4448 participants enrolled, 466 (10.5%) tested positive for influenza. Sensitivity of viral culture differed between BMTs and non-BMTs: 63% versus 41% (p<0.01). There was no difference in the sensitivity of PCR or EIA between the two populations. The sensitivities of viral culture, EIA and PCR were higher in those infected with influenza A than in those infected with influenza B. The sensitivity of viral culture was significantly higher in (H1N1)pdm09 subtype cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Viral culture performed better in BMTs than in non-BMTs. These differences are likely attributable to the younger age of the BMTs.

Overview of Serological Techniques for Influenza Vaccine Evaluation: Past, Present and Future

Serological techniques commonly used to quantify influenza-specific antibodies include the Haemagglutination Inhibition (HI), Single Radial Haemolysis (SRH) and Virus Neutralization (VN) assays. HI and SRH are established and reproducible techniques, whereas VN is more demanding. Every new influenza vaccine needs to fulfil the strict criteria issued by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in order to be licensed. These criteria currently apply exclusively to SRH and HI assays and refer to two different target groups-healthy adults and the elderly, but other vaccine recipient age groups have not been considered (i.e., children). The purpose of this timely review is to highlight the current scenario on correlates of protection concerning influenza vaccines and underline the need to revise the criteria and assays currently in use. In addition to SRH and HI assays, the technical advantages provided by other techniques such as the VN assay, pseudotype-based neutralization assay, neuraminidase and cell-mediated immunity assays need to be considered and regulated via EMA criteria, considering the many significant advantages that they could offer for the development of effective vaccines.

Durability of protective antibody titres is not enhanced by a two-dose schedule of an ASO3-adjuvanted pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine in adult HIV-1-infected patients

The immune response after influenza vaccination is impaired in HIV-infected individuals and can be enhanced by a second dose. The durability of the antibody protection and its clinical benefit is not known. We investigated clinical symptoms and antibody titres against H1N1 influenza A following no dose, 1 dose, or 2 doses of an ASO3-adjuvanted H1N1 vaccine in HIV-infected patients. Seroprotection was found in 7.9%, 52.2%, and 57.3% of patients who received no dose, 1 dose, and 2 doses of the vaccine, respectively (p-value for group comparison < 0.001), after a median of 8.2 ± 1.6 months. Clinical symptoms suggestive of an influenza-like illness were slightly more frequently reported in the unvaccinated group. Vaccinated HIV-infected patients were more likely to be seroprotected at follow-up, but there was no difference comparing those who had received 1 or 2 doses of the vaccine.

Differential influenza H1N1-specific humoral and cellular response kinetics in kidney transplant patients

Renal transplant recipients (RTR) are considered at high risk for influenza-associated complications due to immunosuppression. The efficacy of standard influenza vaccination in RTRs is unclear. Hence, we evaluated activation of the adaptive immunity by the pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 (A(H1N1)pdm09) vaccine in RTRs as compared to healthy controls. To determine cross-reactivity and/or bystander activation, seasonal trivalent influenza vaccine and tetanus/diphteria toxoid (TT/DT) vaccine-specific T cells along with allospecific T cells were quantified before and after A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination. Vaccination-induced alloimmunity was additionally determined by quantifying serum creatinine and proinflammatory protein IP-10. Contrary to healthy controls, RTRs required a booster vaccination to achieve seroconversion (13.3 % day 21; 90 % day 90). In contrast to humoral immunity, sufficient A(H1N1)pdm09-specific T-cell responses were mounted in RTRs already after the first immunization with a magnitude comparable with healthy controls. Interestingly, vaccination simultaneously boosted T cells reacting to seasonal flu but not to TT/DT, suggesting cross-activation. No alloimmune effects were recorded. In conclusion, protective antibody responses required booster vaccination. However, sufficient cellular immunity is established already after the first vaccination, demonstrating differential kinetics of humoral and cellular immunity.

Electrochemical immunosensor for detection of antibodies against influenza A virus H5N1 in hen serum

This paper describes the development of an immunosensor for detection of anti-hemagglutinin antibodies. Its preparation consists of successive modification steps of glassy carbon electrodes: (i) creation of COOH groups, (ii) covalent immobilization of protein A with EDC/NHS coupling reaction, (iii) covering with anti-His IgG monoclonal antibody, (iv) immobilization of the recombinant His-tagged hemagglutinin (His6-H5 HA), (v) filling free space with BSA. The interactions between two variants of recombinant HA (short and long) from highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 and the anti-H5 HA monoclonal antibody (Mab 6-9-1) have been explored with electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). The impedimetric immunosensor displayed a very good detection limit (LOD) of 2.1 pg/mL, the quantification limit (LOQ) of 6.3 pg/mL and a dynamic range from 4 pg/mL to 20 pg/mL. In addition, this analytical device was applied for detection of antibodies against His6-H5 HA in serum of vaccinated hen using serial 10-fold dilutions of serum. The immunosensor proposed was able to detect antibody in hen serum diluted up to 7 × 10(7)-fold. The sensitivity of immunosensor was about four orders of magnitude much better than ELISA.

Pandemic influenza A/H1N1pdm in Italy: age, risk and population susceptibility

Background

A common pattern emerging from several studies evaluating the impact of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza (A/H1N1pdm) conducted in countries worldwide is the low attack rate observed in elderly compared to that observed in children and young adults. The biological or social mechanisms responsible for the observed age-specific risk of infection are still to be deeply investigated.

Methods

The level of immunity against the A/H1N1pdm in pre and post pandemic sera was determined using left over sera taken for diagnostic purposes or routine ascertainment obtained from clinical laboratories. The antibody titres were measured by the haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. To investigate whether certain age groups had higher risk of infection the presence of protective antibody (≥1∶40), was calculated using exact binomial 95% CI on both pre- and post- pandemic serological data in the age groups considered. To estimate age-specific susceptibility to infection we used an age-structured SEIR model.

Results

By comparing pre- and post-pandemic serological data in Italy we found age- specific attack rates similar to those observed in other countries. Cumulative attack rate at the end of the first A/H1N1pdm season in Italy was estimated to be 16.3% (95% CI 9.4%-23.1%). Modeling results allow ruling out the hypothesis that only age-specific characteristics of the contact network and levels of pre-pandemic immunity are responsible for the observed age-specific risk of infection. This means that age-specific susceptibility to infection, suspected to play an important role in the pandemic, was not only determined by pre-pandemic levels of H1N1pdm antibody measured by HI.

Conclusions

Our results claim for new studies to better identify the biological mechanisms, which might have determined the observed pattern of susceptibility with age. Moreover, our results highlight the need to obtain early estimates of differential susceptibility with age in any future pandemics to obtain more reliable real time estimates of critical epidemiological parameters.

Immune response after a single dose of the 2010/11 trivalent, seasonal influenza vaccine in HIV-1-infected patients and healthy controls

BACKGROUND

Immune response rates following influenza vaccination are often lower in HIV-infected individuals. Low vitamin D levels were correlated with weak immune response in cancer patients and are known to be lower in HIV-infected patients.

METHODS

Diagnostic study to determine immune response against the H1N1v component after a single, intramuscular dose of the 2010/11 seasonal, trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) in adult HIV-infected and healthy controls scheduled for influenza vaccination (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01017172). Influenza A/H1N1 antibody titers (AB) were determined before and 21 days after vaccination by hemagglutination inhibition assay.

RESULTS

Immune response was not different between HIV-infected patients (n = 36) and healthy controls (n = 42) who were previously naïve to the H1N1v component of the TIV. Comparing HIV-infected patients (n = 55) and healthy controls (n = 63) who had received 1 or 2 doses of an AS03 adjuvanted H1N1 vaccine in the previous winter season (2009/10), seroconversion rate and the geometric mean AB titer after TIV of the HIV-infected patients were more than twice as high compared to healthy controls. This difference was mainly driven by the 2-dose schedule for HIV patients in 2009/10. Vitamin D levels were lower in HIV patients but did not correlate with immune response.

CONCLUSION

HIV-infected patients who had received 1 or 2 doses of an adjuvanted H1N1 vaccine in the previous year (2009/10) had a significant higher seroconversion rate following TIV as compared to healthy controls, indicating a stronger memory cell response due to the 2-dose schedule.

Tools to detect influenza virus

In 2009, pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus (H1N1 09) started to spread quickly in many countries. It causes respiratory infection with signs and symptoms of common infectious agents. Thus, clinicians sometimes may miss the H1N1 patient. Clinical laboratory tests are important for the diagnosis of the H1N1 infection. There are several tests available, however, the rapid test and direct fluorescence antigen test are unable to rule out the influenza virus infection and viral culture test is time consuming. Therefore, nucleic acid amplification techniques based on reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assays are regarded as a specific diagnosis to confirm the influenza virus infection. Although the nucleic acid-based techniques are highly sensitive and specific, the high mutation rate of the influenza RNA-dependent RNA polymerase could limit the utility of the techniques. In addition, their use depends on the availability, cost and throughput of the diagnostic techniques. To overcome these drawbacks, evaluation and development of the techniques should be continued. This review provides an overview of various techniques for specific diagnosis of influenza infection.

2009 A(H1N1) seroconversion rates and risk factors among the general population in Vientiane Capital, Laos

OBJECTIVE

To assess 2009 A(H1N1) seroconversion rates and their determinants within an unvaccinated population in Vientiane Capital, Laos.

METHODS

CoPanFlu Laos, a general population cohort of 807 households and 4,072 participants was established in March 2010. Sociodemographic data, epidemiological data, and capillary blood samples were collected from all the household members in March, and again in October 2010, in order to assess the level of antibodies to 2009 A(H1N1) with the haemagglutination inhibition assay. 2009 A(H1N1) seroconversion was defined as a fourfold or greater increase in titre between inclusion and follow-up. Determinants for pandemic influenza infection were studied using the generalized estimating equations model, taking household clustering into account.

RESULTS

Between March and November 2010, 3,524 paired sera were tested. Prior to the pandemic, our cohort was almost completely vaccine-naive for seasonal influenza. The overall seroconversion rate among nonvaccinated individuals (n = 2,810) was 14.3% (95%CI [13.0, 15.6]), with the highest rate for participants under 20 yo (19.8%, 95%CI [17.4, 22.4]) and the lowest rate for participants over 60 yo (6.5%, 95%CI [3.7, 10.4]). Participants with lower baseline titres had significantly higher infection rates, with a dose-effect relationship. Odds ratios (ORs) ranged from 76.5 (95%CI [27.1, 215.8]), for those with a titre at inclusion of 1∶10, to 8.1 (95%CI [3.3, 20.4]), for those with a titre of 1∶40. Having another household member with a titre ≥1∶80 was associated with a higher likelihood of immunity (OR = 3.3, 95%CI [2.8, 3.9]).

CONCLUSION

The determinants and age distribution for seroconversion within a vaccine-naive population were similar to those found in developed countries. This pandemic was characterized by strong epidemiological determinants, regardless of geographical zone and level of development. Moreover, we detected pre-existing cross-reacting antibodies in participants over 60 yo, which could not have originated from former multiple vaccination as has been suggested elsewhere.

Factors associated with post-seasonal serological titer and risk factors for infection with the pandemic A/H1N1 virus in the French general population

The CoPanFlu-France cohort of households was set up in 2009 to study the risk factors for infection by the pandemic influenza virus (H1N1pdm) in the French general population. The authors developed an integrative data-driven approach to identify individual, collective and environmental factors associated with the post-seasonal serological H1N1pdm geometric mean titer, and derived a nested case-control analysis to identify risk factors for infection during the first season. This analysis included 1377 subjects (601 households). The GMT for the general population was 47.1 (95% confidence interval (CI): 45.1, 49.2). According to a multivariable analysis, pandemic vaccination, seasonal vaccination in 2009, recent history of influenza-like illness, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, social contacts at school and use of public transports by the local population were associated with a higher GMT, whereas history of smoking was associated with a lower GMT. Additionally, young age at inclusion and risk perception of exposure to the virus at work were identified as possible risk factors, whereas presence of an air humidifier in the living room was a possible protective factor. These findings will be interpreted in light of the longitudinal analyses of this ongoing cohort.

Age-specific contacts and travel patterns in the spatial spread of 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic

Background

Confirmed H1N1 cases during late spring and summer 2009 in various countries showed a substantial age shift between importations and local transmission cases, with adults mainly responsible for seeding unaffected regions and children most frequently driving community outbreaks.

Methods

We introduce a multi-host stochastic metapopulation model with two age classes to analytically investigate the role of a heterogeneously mixing population and its associated non-homogeneous travel behaviors on the risk of a major epidemic. We inform the model with demographic data, contact data and travel statistics of Europe and Mexico, and calibrate it to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic early outbreak. We allow for variations of the model parameters to explore the conditions of invasion under different scenarios.

Results

We derive the expression for the potential of global invasion of the epidemic that depends on the transmissibility of the pathogen, the transportation network and mobility features, the demographic profile and the mixing pattern. Higher assortativity in the contact pattern greatly increases the probability of spatial containment of the epidemic, this effect being contrasted by an increase in the social activity of adults vs. children. Heterogeneous features of the mobility network characterizing its topology and traffic flows strongly favor the invasion of the pathogen at the spatial level, as also a larger fraction of children traveling. Variations in the demographic profile and mixing habits across countries lead to heterogeneous outbreak situations. Model results are compatible with the H1N1 spatial transmission dynamics observed.

Conclusions

This work illustrates the importance of considering age-dependent mixing profiles and mobility features coupled together to study the conditions for the spatial invasion of an emerging influenza pandemic. Its results allow the immediate assessment of the risk of a major epidemic for a specific scenario upon availability of data, and the evaluation of the potential effectiveness of public health interventions targeting specific age groups, their interactions and mobility behaviors. The approach provides a general modeling framework that can be used for other types of partitions of the host population and applied to different settings.

Antibody prevalence to the 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in Germany: geographically variable immunity in winter 2010/2011

Location- and age-specific prevalence of antibodies against 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus were determined in sera of blood donors collected during winter 2010/2011 in Germany. Prevalence of antibodies at protective titres (HI ≥1:40) varied significantly between cities (24.13-83.67 %) throughout all age groups. However, high level antibodies (HI >1:80) were most prevalent among young individuals (18-29 and 30-39 years). Overall, this study demonstrates that older people (50-59 and 60-70 years) are no longer more likely to present protective antibody titres against 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus than younger individuals. Furthermore, our data show a highly variable immunity among the German population in different major cities almost 2 years after the detection of first cases in Germany.

Estimating age-specific cumulative incidence for the 2009 influenza pandemic: a meta-analysis of A(H1N1)pdm09 serological studies from 19 countries

Background

The global impact of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic (H1N1pdm) is not well understood.

Objectives

We estimate overall and age‐specific prevalence of cross‐reactive antibodies to H1N1pdm virus and rates of H1N1pdm infection during the first year of the pandemic using data from published and unpublished H1N1pdm seroepidemiological studies.

Methods

Primary aggregate H1N1pdm serologic data from each study were stratified in standardized age groups and evaluated based on when sera were collected in relation to national or subnational peak H1N1pdm activity. Seropositivity was assessed using well‐described and standardized hemagglutination inhibition (HI titers ≥32 or ≥40) and microneutralization (MN ≥ 40) laboratory assays. The prevalence of cross‐reactive antibodies to the H1N1pdm virus was estimated for studies using sera collected prior to the start of the pandemic (between 2004 and April 2009); H1N1pdm cumulative incidence was estimated for studies in which collected both pre‐ and post‐pandemic sera; and H1N1pdm seropositivity was calculated from studies with post‐pandemic sera only (collected between December 2009–June 2010).

Results

Data from 27 published/unpublished studies from 19 countries/administrative regions – Australia, Canada, China, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong SAR, India, Iran, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Reunion Island, Singapore, United Kingdom, United States, and Vietnam – were eligible for inclusion. The overall age‐standardized pre‐pandemic prevalence of cross‐reactive antibodies was 5% (95%CI 3–7%) and varied significantly by age with the highest rates among persons ≥65 years old (14% 95%CI 8–24%). Overall age‐standardized H1N1pdm cumulative incidence was 24% (95%CI 20–27%) and varied significantly by age with the highest in children 5–19 (47% 95%CI 39–55%) and 0–4 years old (36% 95%CI 30–43%).

Conclusions

Our results offer unique insight into the global impact of the H1N1 pandemic and highlight the need for standardization of seroepidemiological studies and for their inclusion in pre‐pandemic preparedness plans. Our results taken together with recent global pandemic respiratory‐associated mortality estimates suggest that the case fatality ratio of the pandemic virus was approximately 0·02%.

H3N2v and other influenza epidemic risk based on age-specific estimates of sero-protection and contact network interactions

Cases of a novel swine-origin influenza A(H3N2) variant (H3N2v) have recently been identified in the US, primarily among children. We estimated potential epidemic attack rates (ARs) based on age-specific estimates of sero-susceptibility and social interactions. A contact network model previously established for the Greater Vancouver Area (GVA), Canada was used to estimate average epidemic (infection) ARs for the emerging H3N2v and comparator viruses (H1N1pdm09 and an extinguished H3N2 seasonal strain) based on typical influenza characteristics, basic reproduction number (R(0)), and effective contacts taking into account age-specific sero-protection rates (SPRs). SPRs were assessed in sera collected from the GVA in 2009 or earlier (pre-H1N1pdm09) and fall 2010 (post-H1N1pdm09, seasonal A/Brisbane/10/2007(H3N2), and H3N2v) by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. SPR was assigned per convention based on proportion with HI antibody titre ≥40 (SPR40). Recognizing that the HI titre ≥40 was established as the 50%sero-protective threshold we also explored for ½SPR40, SPR80 and a blended gradient defined as: ¼SPR20, ½SPR40, ¾SPR80, SPR160. Base case analysis assumed R(0) = 1.40, but we also explored R(0) as high as 1.80. With R(0) = 1.40 and SPR40, simulated ARs were well aligned with field observations for H1N1pdm09 incidence (AR: 32%), sporadic detections without a third epidemic wave post-H1N1pdm09 (negligible AR<0.1%) as well as A/Brisbane/10/2007(H3N2) seasonal strain extinction and antigenic drift replacement (negligible AR<0.1%). Simulated AR for the novel swine-origin H3N2v was 6%, highest in children 6-11years (16%). However, with modification to SPR thresholds per above, H3N2v AR ≥20% became possible. At SPR40, H3N2v AR ≥10%, ≥15% or ≥30%, occur if R(0)≥1.48, ≥1.56 or ≥1.86, respectively. Based on conventional assumptions, the novel swine-origin H3N2v does not currently pose a substantial pandemic threat. If H3N2v epidemics do occur, overall community ARs are unlikely to exceed typical seasonal influenza experience. However risk assessment may change with time and depends crucially upon the validation of epidemiological features of influenza, notably the serologic correlate of protection and R(0).

Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm

BACKGROUND

Mathematical and computational models for infectious diseases are increasingly used to support public-health decisions; however, their reliability is currently under debate. Real-time forecasts of epidemic spread using data-driven models have been hindered by the technical challenges posed by parameter estimation and validation. Data gathered for the 2009 H1N1 influenza crisis represent an unprecedented opportunity to validate real-time model predictions and define the main success criteria for different approaches.

METHODS

We used the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model to generate stochastic simulations of epidemic spread worldwide, yielding (among other measures) the incidence and seeding events at a daily resolution for 3,362 subpopulations in 220 countries. Using a Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood analysis, the model provided an estimate of the seasonal transmission potential during the early phase of the H1N1 pandemic and generated ensemble forecasts for the activity peaks in the northern hemisphere in the fall/winter wave. These results were validated against the real-life surveillance data collected in 48 countries, and their robustness assessed by focusing on 1) the peak timing of the pandemic; 2) the level of spatial resolution allowed by the model; and 3) the clinical attack rate and the effectiveness of the vaccine. In addition, we studied the effect of data incompleteness on the prediction reliability.

RESULTS

Real-time predictions of the peak timing are found to be in good agreement with the empirical data, showing strong robustness to data that may not be accessible in real time (such as pre-exposure immunity and adherence to vaccination campaigns), but that affect the predictions for the attack rates. The timing and spatial unfolding of the pandemic are critically sensitive to the level of mobility data integrated into the model.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that large-scale models can be used to provide valuable real-time forecasts of influenza spreading, but they require high-performance computing. The quality of the forecast depends on the level of data integration, thus stressing the need for high-quality data in population-based models, and of progressive updates of validated available empirical knowledge to inform these models.

"Trivalent influenza vaccination of healthy adults 3 years after the onset of swine-origin H1N1 pandemic: restricted immunogenicity of the new A/H1N1v constituent?"

Influenza vaccination is advised annually to reduce the burden of influenza disease. For sufficient vaccine campaigns also a continuous adoption of influenza vaccines are necessary, due to particularly high genetic variability of influenza A virus. Therefore, we evaluate the effectiveness of the trivalent influenza vaccine 2010/2011, against influenza A (H1N1, H3N2) and influenza B. Immune response was investigated in paired sera from 92 healthcare workers with the hemagglutination inhibition assay (HI). Protective antibody levels (HI titer ≥40) were found after vaccination for influenza A/California/07/2009(H1N1): 84.71 % [GMT: 115.34]; for influenza A/Perth/16/2009(H3N2): 94.94 % [GMT: 268.47] and for influenza B/Brisbane/60/2008: 96.20 % [GMT: 176.83]; matching with the currently circulating virus strains. However, the highest seroprevalence rate was found against influenza B; pre- and post-vaccination titers as well, which may be due to comparatively high virus preservation. Remarkable, lowest seropositivity was seen against H1N1. Despite the significant titer rise, sufficient H1N1 herd immunity was still not achieved. It can be assumed that a high influenza A herd immunity may be a requirement for a successful booster vaccination.

Antibody responses against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus after sequential vaccination with pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccines in Finnish healthcare professionals

Background  Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus has been circulating in human population for three epidemic seasons. During this time, monovalent pandemic and trivalent seasonal influenza vaccination against this virus have been offered to Finnish healthcare professionals. It is, however, unclear how well vaccine‐induced antibodies recognize different strains of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 circulating in the population and whether the booster vaccination with seasonal influenza vaccine would broaden the antibody cross‐reactivity.

Objectives  Influenza vaccine‐induced humoral immunity against several isolates of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus was analyzed in healthcare professionals. Age‐dependent responses were also analyzed.

Methods  Influenza viruses were selected to represent viruses that circulated in Finland during two consecutive influenza epidemic seasons 2009–2010 and 2010–2011. Serum samples from vaccinated volunteers, age 20–64 years, were collected before and after vaccination with AS03‐adjuvanted pandemic and non‐adjuvanted trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine that was given 1 year later.

Results  Single dose of pandemic vaccine induced a good albeit variable antibody response. On day 21 after vaccination, depending on the virus strain, 14–75% of vaccinated had reached antibody titers (≥1:40) considered seroprotective. The booster vaccination 1 year later with a seasonal vaccine elevated the seroprotection rate to 57–98%. After primary immunization, younger individuals (20–48 years) had significantly higher antibody titers against all tested viruses than older persons (49–64 years) but this difference disappeared after the seasonal booster vaccination.

Conclusions  Even a few amino acid changes in influenza A HA may compromise the vaccine‐induced antibody recognition. Older adults (49 years and older) may benefit more from repeated influenza vaccinations.

Serological response to influenza A H1N1 vaccine (Pandemrix®) and seasonal influenza vaccine 2009/2010 in renal transplant recipients and in hemodialysis patients

In the present study, antibody response to seasonal influenza vaccination and to the adjuvanted one-shot influenza A H1N1 vaccine (Pandemrix(®)) was investigated in 57 hemodialysis (HD) patients and 48 renal transplant (RT) recipients. Specific antibodies were measured by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) test using a pandemic H1N1 strain and a seasonal H3N2 virus. HI titers of ≥1:40 were considered as protective. Hemodialysis patients showed seroprotection against pandemic H1N1 in 35.1%, against seasonal influenza in 36.8% and against both in 14.0%. In comparison, renal transplant recipients developed protective antibody titers against the pandemic H1N1 virus in 47.9%, against the seasonal H3N2 strain in 31.3% and against both in 18.8%. HD patients and renal transplant recipients younger than 60 years developed protective antibody response to the pandemic influenza H1N1 vaccine in 50.0% of the HD patients and 55.2% of the RT recipients and against seasonal influenza in 45.0/20.7% (HD/RT) of the cases. Patients aged ≥60 years showed seroprotection against pandemic influenza in 27.0/36.8% (HD/RT) and against seasonal influenza in 32.4/47.4% (HD/RT). Side effects were reported in only four patients. In hemodialysis patients and renal transplant recipients, vaccination against pandemic H1N1 and seasonal influenza is well tolerated. However, more than a half of these patients did not develop seroprotective antibody levels. Thus, new vaccines and altered vaccination regimes are likely necessary to achieve relevant antibody levels in these patient groups.

H1N1v at a seroepidemiological glance: is the nightmare over?

When the second wave of pandemic influenza A H1N1v 2009 (H1N1v) emerged in the winter of 2010/2011, public health authorities were afraid of dangerous implications and severe clinical courses again. As further H1N1v waves might appear, achievement of sufficient herd immunity is a matter of urgency. The objective of this study was to determine the seroprevalence of antibodies against H1N1v by hemagglutination-inhibition test (HI) after the second wave. We compared our recent findings with our data obtained after the first pandemic in 2009/2010. Between March and May 2011 we collected serum samples from 600 persons aged 1 to 84 years admitted to University Hospital Frankfurt/Main and analysed the titres of anti-H1N1v by HI. The overall seroprevalence of anti-H1N1v has risen from 36.9% (95% confidence interval (95%CI), 33-41) in unvaccinated persons after the first wave to 57.3% (95%CI, 53.1-61.2) in vaccinated and unvaccinated. The highest rate of seropositivity was detected in the age group of 10-19 years (66%; 95%CI, 55.8-75.2), whereas the lowest was found in the age group 40-59 years (51%; 95%CI, 40.8-61.1). Although seroprevalence has significantly increased, sufficient herd immunity is still not achieved. Therefore, general vaccination programs have to be propagated continuously by public health authorities.

Temporal trends of influenza A (H1N1) virus seroprevalence following 2009 pandemic wave in Guangdong, China: three cross-sectional serology surveys

BACKGROUND

To evaluate the temporal trends of seroprevalence to pH1N1 among the Guangdong population following 2009 H1N1 pandemic wave, we conducted three cross-sectional serology surveys in 2010.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Three surveys were carried out consecutively in 2010 from January 8 to January 24, from March 15 to April 10 and from August 23 to September 4. Sample populations comprising of 4725, 4727, and 4721 subjects respectively were randomly selected for study in these three surveys. The level of antibodies against pH1N1 was evaluated by hemagglutination inhibition assay. In survey 1, the seroprevalence of pH1N1 among all the subjects is 25.1%, declining to 18.4% in survey 2 and increasing to 21.4% in survey 3. Among vaccinated subjects, the seroprevalence was 49.0%, 53.0%, and 49.4% in the three consecutive surveys, showing no significant differences. In contrast, among non-vaccinated subjects, the seroprevalence declined significantly from 22.8% (survey 1) to 14.3% (survey 2) and subsequently increased to 18.1% (survey 3). The multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that seroprevalence to pH1N1 in non-vaccinated individuals correlated with the investigated order of the surveys, age, and region (all P<0.05). However, it was not correlated with gender (P = 0.650), seasonal influenza vaccination history (P = 0.402) and symptoms (P = 0.074).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

In Guangdong, the seroprevalance to pH1N1 decreased initially and then rebounded modestly during the first 9 months following the 2009 pandemic wave. Our results suggest that the prevalence of pH1N1 is still correlated with age and population density during the post-pandemic period. An early end to the free pH1N1 vaccination program might be another important reason for the slight rebound in seroprevalance. Our study findings can help the Guangdong authorities to make evidence-based decisions about a long-term vaccination strategy and boost immunity in specific population groups (such as children and people living in the capital-city) to prevent further transmission in the future.

Recent publications in medical microbiology and immunology: a retrospective

A look back is done to some clinical and basic research activities recently published in medical microbiology and immunology. The review covers clinical experiences and in vitro experiments to understand the emergency, pathogenicity, epidemic spread, and vaccine-based prevention of avian and swine-origin flu. Some new developments and concepts in diagnosis, (molecular) epidemiology, and therapy of AIDS, viral hepatitis C, and herpesvirus-associated diseases are outlined. Regulation of immune system has been discussed in a special issue 2010 including some aspects of CNS affections (measles). Mycobacterial infection and its prevention by modern recombinant vaccines have reached new interest, as well as new concepts of vaccination and prophylaxis against several other bacteria. Adaptation to host niches enables immune escape (example brucella) and determines virulence (example N. meningitidis). Chlamydia pneumoniae, previously considered to trigger atherosclerosis, is hypothetically associated to Alzheimer disease, while CMV, another putative trigger of atherosclerosis, gains evidence of oncomodulation in CNS tumor diseases. In terms of globalization, exotic virus infections are increasingly imported from southern countries.

Age-dependent patterns of infection and severity explaining the low impact of 2009 influenza A (H1N1): evidence from serial serologic surveys in the Netherlands

Despite considerable research efforts in specific subpopulations, reliable estimates of the infection attack rates and severity of 2009 influenza A (H1N1) in the general population remain scarce. Such estimates are essential to the tailoring of future control strategies. Therefore, 2 serial population-based serologic surveys were conducted, before and after the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) epidemic, in the Netherlands. Random age-stratified samples were obtained using a 2-stage cluster design. Participants donated blood and completed a questionnaire. Data on sentinel general practitioner-attended influenza-like illness and nationwide hospitalization and mortality were used to assess the severity of infection. The estimated infection attack rates were low in the general population (7.6%, 95% confidence interval: 3.6, 11) but high in children aged 5-19 years (35%, 95% confidence interval: 25, 45). The estimated hospitalization and mortality rates per infection increased significantly with age (5-19 years: 0.042% and 0.00094%, respectively; 20-39 years: 0.12% and 0.0025%; 40-59 years: 0.68% and 0.032%; 60-75 years: >0.81% and >0.068%). The high infection attack rate in children and the very low attack rate in older adults, together with the low severity of illness per infection in children but substantial severity in older adults, produced an epidemic with a low overall impact.

A new approach to characterising infectious disease transmission dynamics from sentinel surveillance: application to the Italian 2009-2010 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic

Syndromic and virological data are routinely collected by many countries and are often the only information available in real time. The analysis of surveillance data poses many statistical challenges that have not yet been addressed. For instance, the fraction of cases that seek healthcare and are thus detected is often unknown. Here, we propose a general statistical framework that explicitly takes into account the way the surveillance data are generated. Our approach couples a deterministic mathematical model with a statistical description of the reporting process and is applied to surveillance data collected in Italy during the 2009-2010 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic. We estimate that the reproduction number R was initially into the range 1.2-1.4 and that case detection in children was significantly higher than in adults. According to the best fit models, we estimate that school-age children experienced the highest infection rate overall. In terms of both estimated peak-incidence and overall attack rate, according to the Susceptibility and Immunity models the 5-14 years age-class was about 5 times more infected than the 65+ years old age-group and about twice more than the 15-64 years age-class. The multiplying factors are doubled using the Baseline model. Overall, the estimated attack rate was about 16% according to the Baseline model and 30% according to the Susceptibility and Immunity models.

Vaccination against pandemic H1N1 (2009) in patients after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation: a retrospective analysis

Purpose

Limited data are available on immunologic responses to primary pandemic H1N1 (2009) vaccination in recipients of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) recipients. In 2009 serologic responses to either pandemic H1N1 (2009) vaccine (n = 36) or pandemic H1N1 (2009) infection (n = 2) were studied in 38 HSCT recipients.

Methods

Responses were measured with a standard hemagglutination-inhibition assay. Fourteen patients had active chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGvHD) at the time of vaccination/infection and seven patients had cGvHD in remission; 11 patients had no immunosuppressive therapy, and 27 patients were on immunosuppressive therapy. Nineteen patients (53%) responded to pandemic H1N1 (2009) vaccination. Two patients had pandemic H1N1 (2009) infection without prior vaccination, and one patient had severe pandemic H1N1 (2009) infection with acute respiratory distress syndrome despite prior single vaccination.

Results

Non-responders to pandemic H1N1 (2009) vaccination more often had cGvHD (65 vs. 53%) and received second- or third-line therapy (53 vs. 11%), while responders mostly had first-line therapy for cGvHD. While vaccine responders had no or single agent immunosuppressive therapy, non-responders frequently received moderate or intense immunosuppressive therapy. All vaccine recipients previously treated with rituximab were non-responders.

Conclusions

In summary, the overall response to pandemic H1N1 (2009) vaccination in HSCT recipients was modest. Patients receiving combined immunosuppressive therapy for steroid-refractory cGvHD barely responded to pandemic H1N1 (2009) vaccination.

Prevalence of antibodies against seasonal influenza A and B viruses during the 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 influenza seasons in residents of Pittsburgh, PA, USA

Seroprevalence of antibodies against influenza viruses from 1000 people between the ages of 0 to 90 years of age (100 samples for each decade of life) in the Pittsburgh, PA, USA was measured. One year removed from the outbreak of novel H1N1 influenza into the human population in the Northern Hemisphere and following the emergence of a new H3N2 influenza isolate, sera was collected to determine the hemagglutination-inhibition antibodies against influenza A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B viruses representative of viruses in the vaccine used for the 2010-2011 influenza season. The seroprevalence of antibodies to influenza virus, A/California/7/2009 (H1N1), increased from the previously reported November 2009 samples and the samples collected at the end of the 2010 influenza season (June 2010) during the 2010-2011 season in all age groups, but people the under the age of 20 had the highest rise in the number of positive samples. The number of individuals positive for H1N1 stayed the same through the entire influenza season. In contrast, there were little to no positive serum samples against the H3N2 virus, A/Perth/16/2009, from samples collected during the 2009-2010 influenza season, however, titers against these viruses rose significantly during the early months of the 2010-2011 season with the highest number of positive samples detected in the very young and very old populations. However, these titers waned by May, 2011 in those over the age of 40. There was a rise in adults to the B/Brisbane/60/2008 influenza virus in adults in samples collected in October, 2010, but these titers quickly declined. The highest titers to B influenza were detected in people between the ages of 10-30 years of age. These findings may have implications for the development of vaccination strategies aiming at the protection against seasonal and/or pandemic influenza virus infection and pre-pandemic preparedness activities.

Post-pandemic seroprevalence of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infection (swine flu) among children <18 years in Germany

Background

We determined antibodies to the pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus in children to assess: the incidence of (H1N1) 2009 infections in the 2009/2010 season in Germany, the proportion of subclinical infections and to compare titers in vaccinated and infected children.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Eight pediatric hospitals distributed over Germany prospectively provided sera from in- or outpatients aged 1 to 17 years from April 1^st to July 31^st 2010. Vaccination history, recall of infections and sociodemographic factors were ascertained. Antibody titers were measured with a sensitive and specific in-house hemagglutination inhibition test (HIT) and compared to age-matched sera collected during 6 months before the onset of the pandemic in Germany. We analyzed 1420 post-pandemic and 300 pre-pandemic sera. Among unvaccinated children aged 1–4 and 5–17 years the prevalence of HI titers (≥1∶10) was 27.1% (95% CI: 23.5–31.3) and 53.5% (95% CI: 50.9–56.2) compared to 1.7% and 5.5%, respectively, for pre-pandemic sera, accounting for a serologically determined incidence of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 during the season 2009/2010 of 25,4% (95% CI : 19.3–30.5) in children aged 1–4 years and 48.0% (95% CI: 42.6–52.0) in 5–17 year old children. Of children with HI titers ≥1∶10, 25.5% (95% CI: 22.5–28.8) reported no history of any infectious disease since June 2009. Among vaccinated children, 92% (95%-CI: 87.0–96.6) of the 5–17 year old but only 47.8% (95%-CI: 33.5–66.5) of the 1–4 year old children exhibited HI titers against influenza A virus (H1N1) 2009.

Conclusion

Serologically determined incidence of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infections in children indicates high infection rates with older children (5–17 years) infected twice as often as younger children. In about a quarter of the children with HI titers after the season 2009/2010 subclinical infections must be assumed. Low HI titers in young children after vaccination with the AS03_B-adjuvanted split virion vaccine need further scrutiny.

High incidence of severe influenza among individuals over 50 years of age

Age-specific epidemiological data on asymptomatic, symptomatic, and severe infections are essential for public health policies on combating influenza. In this study, we incorporated data on microbiologically confirmed infections and seroprevalence to comprehensively describe the epidemiology of pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza. Seroprevalence was determined from 1,795 random serum samples collected in our hospital in January 2007 (before the first wave of the pandemic) and March 2010 (after the second wave). Data on microbiologically confirmed infection and severe cases were obtained from the Centre for Health Protection in Hong Kong. Severe cases were most common in the 51- to 60-year-old age group. The microbiologically confirmed incidence rate was highest for children aged ≤10 years and dropped sharply for the adult population (ρ = -1.0; P < 0.01), but the incidence rate for severe disease was highest for the 51- to 60-year-old age group. For the 51- to 60-year-old age group, the seroprevalence was similar to that for the younger age groups, but the proportion of severe cases relative to seroprevalence was significantly higher than that for 11- to 50-year-old age groups. As judged from the percentage of specimens positive for other respiratory viruses compared with that for pandemic H1N1 virus, the impact of symptomatic disease due to pandemic H1N1 virus was higher than that for other respiratory viruses in people aged ≤50 years. In conclusion, the 51- to 60-year-old age group, which had the highest overall incidence and the highest rate of severe disease but is currently not considered by the World Health Organization to be an at-risk group, should be prioritized for influenza vaccination in areas where universal influenza vaccination is not practiced.

Seroprevalence and severity of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

This study is to determine the seroprevalence of the pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus (pH1N1) in Taiwan before and after the 2009 pandemic, and to estimate the relative severity of pH1N1 infections among different age groups.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A total of 1544 and 1558 random serum samples were collected from the general population in Taiwan in 2007 and 2010, respectively. Seropositivity was defined by a hemagglutination inhibition titer to pH1N1 (A/Taiwan/126/09) ≥1:40. The seropositivity rate of pH1N1 among the unvaccinated subjects and national surveillance data were used to compare the proportion of infections that led to severe diseases and fatalities among different age groups. The overall seroprevalence of pH1N1 was 0.91% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43-1.38) in 2007 and significantly increased to 29.9% (95% CI 27.6-32.2) in 2010 (p<0.0001), with the peak attack rate (55.4%) in 10-17 year-old adolescents, the lowest in elderly ≥65 years (14.1%). The overall attack rates were 20.6% (188/912) in unvaccinated subjects. Among the unvaccinated but infected populations, the estimated attack rates of severe cases per 100,000 infections were significantly higher in children aged 0-5 years (54.9 cases, odds ratio [OR] 4.23, 95% CI 3.04-5.90) and elderly ≥ 65 years (22.4 cases, OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.99-3.83) compared to adolescents aged 10-17 years (13.0 cases). The overall case-fatality rate was 0.98 per 100,000 infections without a significant difference in different age groups.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Pre-existing immunity against pH1N1 was rarely identified in Taiwanese at any age in 2007. Young children and elderly--the two most lower seroprotection groups showed the greatest vulnerability to clinical severity after the pH1N1 infections. These results imply that both age groups should have higher priority for immunization in the coming flu season.

Comparability of different methods for estimating influenza infection rates over a single epidemic wave

Estimation of influenza infection rates is important for determination of the extent of epidemic spread and for calculation of severity indicators. The authors compared estimated infection rates from paired and cross-sectional serologic surveys, rates of influenza like illness (ILI) obtained from sentinel general practitioners (GPs), and ILI samples that tested positive for influenza using data from similar periods collected during the 2009 H1N1 epidemic in Singapore. The authors performed sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of estimates to input parameter uncertainties, and they determined sample sizes required for differing levels of precision. Estimates from paired seroconversion were 17% (95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI): 14, 20), higher than those from cross-sectional serology (12%, 95% BCI: 9, 17). Adjusted ILI estimates were 15% (95% BCI: 10, 25), and estimates computed from ILI and laboratory data were 12% (95% BCI: 8, 18). Serologic estimates were least sensitive to the risk of input parameter misspecification. ILI-based estimates were more sensitive to parameter misspecification, though this was lessened by incorporation of laboratory data. Obtaining a 5-percentage-point spread for the 95% confidence interval in infection rates would require more than 1,000 participants per serologic study, a sentinel network of 90 GPs, or 50 GPs when combined with laboratory samples. The various types of estimates will provide comparable findings if accurate input parameters can be obtained.

The age-specific cumulative incidence of infection with pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 was similar in various countries prior to vaccination

BACKGROUND

During the influenza pandemic of 2009 estimates of symptomatic and asymptomatic infection were needed to guide vaccination policies and inform other control measures. Serological studies are the most reliable way to measure influenza infection independent of symptoms. We reviewed all published serological studies that estimated the cumulative incidence of infection with pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 prior to the initiation of population-based vaccination against the pandemic strain.

METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We searched for studies that estimated the cumulative incidence of pandemic influenza infection in the wider community. We excluded studies that did not include both pre- and post-pandemic serological sampling and studies that included response to vaccination. We identified 47 potentially eligible studies and included 12 of them in the review. Where there had been a significant first wave, the cumulative incidence of pandemic influenza infection was reported in the range 16%-28% in pre-school aged children, 34%-43% in school aged children and 12%-15% in young adults. Only 2%-3% of older adults were infected. The proportion of the entire population infected ranged from 11%-18%. We re-estimated the cumulative incidence to account for the small proportion of infections that may not have been detected by serology, and performed direct age-standardisation to the study population. For those countries where it could be calculated, this suggested a population cumulative incidence in the range 11%-21%.

CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE

Around the world, the cumulative incidence of infection (which is higher than the cumulative incidence of clinical disease) was below that anticipated prior to the pandemic. Serological studies need to be routine in order to be sufficiently timely to provide support for decisions about vaccination.

Prevalence of antibodies to 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in German adult population in pre- and post-pandemic period

BACKGROUND

In order to detect levels of pre-existing cross-reactive antibodies in different age groups and to measure age-specific infection rates of the influenza A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic in Germany, we conducted a seroprevalence study based on samples from an ongoing nationwide representative health survey.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We analysed 845 pre-pandemic samples collected between 25 Nov 2008 and 28 Apr 2009 and 757 post-pandemic samples collected between 12 Jan 2010 and 24 Apr 2010. Reactive antibodies against 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus (pH1N1) were detected using a haemagglutination inhibition test (antigen A/California/7/2009). Proportions of samples with antibodies at titre ≥ 40 and geometric mean of the titres (GMT) were calculated and compared among 6 age groups (18-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, ≥ 70 years). The highest proportions of cross-reactive antibodies at titre ≥ 40 before the pandemic were observed among 18-29 year olds, 12.5% (95% CI 7.3-19.5%). The highest increase in seroprevalence between pre- and post-pandemic was also observed among 18-29 year olds, 29.9% (95% CI 16.7-43.2%). Effects of sampling period (pre- and post-pandemic), age, sex, and prior influenza immunization on titre were investigated with Tobit regression analysis using three birth cohorts (after 1976, between 1957 and 1976, and before 1957). The GMT increased between the pre- and post-pandemic period by a factor of 10.2 (95% CI 5.0-20.7) in the birth cohort born after 1976, 6.3 (95% CI 3.3-11.9) in those born between 1957 and 1976 and 2.4 (95% CI 1.3-4.3) in those born before 1957.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

We demonstrate that infection rates differed among age groups and that the measured pre-pandemic level of cross-reactive antibodies towards pH1N1 did not add information in relation to protection and prediction of the most affected age groups among adults in the pandemic.

Seroprevalence to influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus--where are we?

Age-specific seroprevalences for influenza virus make important contributions to estimating the burden of infection and determining the vulnerable populations. It is especially difficult to know the true clinical attack rates of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic; however, we can estimate infection rates through analyses of seroprevalences based on national studies from different continents and countries with different demographics. After the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, seroprevalence studies found 5 to 60% of populations across different continents and age groups having antibodies against the A(H1N1) 2009 virus. The seropositivity was highest in children and teenagers (20 to 60%) as well as in the elderly older than 80 years (20 to 40%). Preexisting cross-reactive antibodies against the virus were present mostly in sera of older people (born before 1950) who could have encountered viruses descended from the 1918 pandemic viruses. Experience with the 2009 pandemic indicates how essential early and timely serology data against the emerging virus can be for informing decisions on use of antivirals and vaccination campaigns, especially in regard to risk groups. The objectives of this review were to summarize the current data available on seroprevalence before and after the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic and the lessons learned for future pandemic preparedness.

Serological study of the 2009 pandemic due to influenza A H1N1 in the metropolitan French population

We looked for evidence of antibodies to the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic virus in panels of sera from individuals living in metropolitan France, obtained either before, during or after the epidemic, using standard haemagglutination inhibition and microneutralization tests. The difference between seroprevalence values measured in post- and pre-epidemic panels was used as an estimate of seroconversion rate in different age groups (23.4% (0-24 years, age-group 0); 16.5% (25-34); 7.9% (35-44); 7.2% (45-54); 1.6% (55-64); and 3.1% (>65)), confirming that the distribution of cases in different age groups was similar to that of the seasonal H1N1 virus. During the pre-pandemic period low-titre cross-reactive antibodies were present in a large proportion of the population (presumably acquired against seasonal H1N1) whereas cross-reactive antibodies were detected in individuals over the age of 65 years with significantly higher prevalence and serological titres (presumably acquired previously against Spanish flu-related H1N1 strains). Clinical data and analysis of post-pandemic seroprevalence showed that few of these latter patients were infected by the influenza virus during the epidemic. In contrast, the majority of both clinical cases and seroconversions were recorded in the 0-24 age group and a global inverse relationship between prevalence of antibodies to pH1N1 in the pre-pandemic period and rate of seroconversion was observed amongst age groups. Our results emphasize the complex relationships involved in antigenic reactivity to pandemic and seasonal H1N1 viral antigens; hence the difficulty in distinguishing between low-titre specific and cross-reactive antibodies, establishing precise seroprevalence numbers and fully understanding the relationship between previous immunity to seasonal viruses and protection against the novel variant.

Seroprevalence of antibodies to pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus among health care workers in two general hospitals after first outbreak in Kobe, Japan

OBJECTIVE

To assess the prevalence including asymptomatic infection, infection risk of exposure to patients, and effectiveness of personal protective equipment (PPE) among health care workers (HCWs) during the first pandemic (H1N1) 2009 (pH1N1) outbreak in Kobe, Japan in May 2009.

METHODS

A cross-sectional seroepidemiological study was conducted on 268 HCWs in the two hospitals in Kobe to which all pH1N1 inpatients were directed. Participating HCWs completed a self-administrated questionnaire and provided a single serum sample which was analyzed using a hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) antibody test.

RESULTS

Of 268 subjects, 14 (5.2%) were found to have positive antibodies to the pH1N1 by HI assay; only 1 reported a febrile episode. Among the 14 seropositive cases, 8 received chemoprophylaxis. 162 HCWs (60.4%) had been exposed to patients. The seropositive rate (SPR) for pH1N1 of the exposed group was higher than that of the unexposed group, however not statistically significant (6.8% vs. 3.1%, p = 0.197). There were no statistically significant differences in SPR for any PPE.

CONCLUSION

The SPR for pH1N1 in the exposed group was higher than that of the unexposed group in HCWs; however, most of these individuals were asymptomatic. There was no statistically significant association between PPE implementation and pH1N1 seropositivity.

The seroprevalence of pandemic influenza H1N1 (2009) virus in China

Background

Mainland China experienced pandemic influenza H1N1 (2009) virus (pH1N1) with peak activity during November-December 2009. To understand the geographic extent, risk factors, and attack rate of pH1N1 infection in China we conducted a nationwide serological survey to determine the prevalence of antibodies to pH1N1.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Stored serum samples (n = 2,379) collected during 2006-2008 were used to estimate baseline serum reactogenicity to pH1N1. In January 2010, we used a multistage-stratified random sampling method to select 50,111 subjects who met eligibility criteria and collected serum samples and administered a standardized questionnaire. Antibody response to pH1N1 was measured using haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay and the weighted seroprevalence was calculated using the Taylor series linearization method. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to examine risk factors for pH1N1 seropositivity. Baseline seroprevalence of pH1N1 antibody (HI titer ≥40) was 1.2%. The weighted seroprevalence of pH1N1 among the Chinese population was 21.5%(vaccinated: 62.0%; unvaccinated: 17.1%). Among unvaccinated participants, those aged 6-15 years (32.9%) and 16-24 years (30.3%) had higher seroprevalence compared with participants aged 25–59 years (10.7%) and ≥60 years (9.9%, P<0.0001). Children in kindergarten and students had higher odds of seropositivity than children in family care (OR: 1.36 and 2.05, respectively). We estimated that 207.7 million individuals (15.9%) experienced pH1N1 infection in China.

Conclusions/Significance

The Chinese population had low pre-existing immunity to pH1N1 and experienced a relatively high attack rate in 2009 of this virus. We recommend routine control measures such as vaccination to reduce transmission and spread of seasonal and pandemic influenza viruses.

Did modeling overestimate the transmission potential of pandemic (H1N1-2009)? Sample size estimation for post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies

BACKGROUND

Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.

CONCLUSIONS

Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.

Limited prevalence of influenza A/H1N1v antibodies: footprints of the pandemic of 2010

BACKGROUND

The intention of our investigation was to determine the seroprevalence of H1N1v antibodies after a pandemic by the haemagglutination inhibition (HI) test. We included the serum samples of adults who had not received vaccination against H1N1v. By means of serological footprints, the spread of infection can be investigated.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Between December 2009 and May 2010, we collected 233 serum samples from healthy people aged 1-72 years and analysed the titres of H1N1v antibodies by the use of the HI test.

RESULTS

After the pandemic, a seroprevalence of 36.9% was observed. The highest rate of seropositivity was detected in the age group of 10-19 years (60%) and the lowest rate was found in the age group of 30-39 years (22%). The seroprevalence of H1N1v antibodies in females exceeded the rate of positive men (41.5 vs. 31.8%). Almost 70% of the influenza A/H1N1v infections were passed inapparently.

Enhancing effects of adjuvanted 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza A vaccine on memory B-cell responses in HIV-infected individuals

OBJECTIVE

To assess the humoral immune response to low-dose AS03-adjuvanted and standard-dose nonadjuvanted 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza A vaccine in HIV-infected aviremic individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy and in uninfected individuals.

DESIGN

A three-arm study.

SETTING

Two clinics: one at the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Maryland, USA; and the other at the Maple Leaf Medical Clinic in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

PARTICIPANTS

HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected adults.

INTERVENTION

Single intramuscular 15 μg dose of the monovalent inactivated 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza A vaccine without adjuvant or 3.75 μg dose of the same strain with adjuvant AS03.

MAIN OUTCOMES

Immunogenicity, as measured by hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) antibody titers and vaccine-specific memory B-cell responses.

RESULTS

A total of 74 participants were enrolled. Twenty-one HIV-infected individuals received the low-dose adjuvanted 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza A vaccine. Twenty-nine HIV-infected and 24 HIV-uninfected individuals received the standard-dose nonadjuvanted vaccine. There were no significant differences in antibody responses at 9 weeks postvaccination among the three groups studied. However, the IgG memory B-cell response against the vaccine was significantly higher in the HIV-infected group that received the low-dose adjuvanted vaccine when compared to the HIV-infected and uninfected groups that received the standard-dose nonadjuvanted vaccine. Conclusions remained unchanged after regression adjustment for age, gender, CD4 T-cell count, and baseline HAI titer.

CONCLUSION

These data suggest that adjuvants could be used to expand coverage through dose sparing and improve humoral immune responses in immunocompromised individuals.

Determination of serum neutralization antibodies against seasonal influenza A strain H3N2 and the emerging strains 2009 H1N1 and avian H5N1

BACKGROUND

Humoral virus neutralizing activity is crucial in preventing influenza virus infection. However, the influenza neutralizing activity in the general population remains unclear.

METHODS

In this study we performed a serological survey of 200 blood donors from Guangzhou, China. Using a microneutralization (MN) assay, neutralizing activities against influenza A 2009 H1N1, H3N2 and H5N1 were measured. Anti-haemagglutinin antibody was assayed by haemagglutination inhibition (HI) test. Also, antibodies against M1 and M2 matrix proteins were measured using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA).

RESULTS

By MN assay, 86% of the individuals showed neutralizing activity against H3N2, 11% against 2009 H1N1, and none against H5N1. The positive rate for H3N2 increased as the age of individuals increased. Interestingly, males displayed a 4 times higher positive rate against 2009 H1N1 than females. The results of ELISA revealed that 97.5% of the individuals had positive M1 titres and 21% had positive M2 titres. Furthermore, anti-haemagglutinin antibody had a much higher correlation with the neutralization activity than anti-M1 and anti-M2 antibodies.

CONCLUSIONS

Neutralizing activities against H5N1 and 2009 H1N1 were low in the general population. Therefore, public health agencies should design strategies for preventing potential H5N1 and 2009 H1N1 pandemics.