Genome-wide Modeling of Polygenic Risk Score in Colorectal Cancer Risk

Investigating the link between gut microbiome and bone mineral density: The role of genetic factors

Osteoporosis is a complex metabolic bone disease that severely undermines the quality of life and overall health of the elderly. While previous studies have established a close relationship between gut microbiome and host bone metabolism, the role of genetic factors has received less scrutiny. This research aims to identify potential taxa associated with various bone mineral density states, incorporating assessments of genetic factors. Fecal microbiome profiles from 605 individuals (334 females and 271 males) aged 55-65 from the Taizhou Imaging Study with osteopenia (n = 270, 170 women) or osteoporosis (n = 94, 85 women) or normal (n = 241, 79 women) were determined using shotgun metagenomic sequencing. The linear discriminant analysis was employed to identify differentially enriched taxa. Utilizing the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes for annotation, functional pathway analysis was conducted to identify differentially metabolic pathways. Polygenic risk score for osteoporosis was estimated to represent genetic susceptibility to osteoporosis, followed by stratification and interaction analyses. Gut flora diversity did not show significant differences among various bone mineral groups. After multivariable adjustment, certain species, such as Clostridium leptum, Fusicatenibacter saccharivorans and Roseburia hominis, were enriched in osteoporosis patients. Statistically significant interactions between the polygenic risk score and taxa Roseburia faecis, Megasphaera elsdenii were observed (P for interaction = 0.005, 0.018, respectively). Stratified analyses revealed a significantly negative association between Roseburia faecis and bone mineral density in the low-genetic-risk group (β = -0.045, P < 0.05), while Turicimonas muris was positively associated with bone mineral density in the high-genetic-risk group (β = 4.177, P < 0.05) after multivariable adjustments. Functional predictions of the gut microbiome indicated an increase in pathways related to structural proteins in high-genetic-risk patients, while low-genetic-risk patients exhibited enrichment in enzyme-related pathways. This study emphasizes the association between gut microbes and bone mass, offering new insights into the interaction between genetic background and gut microbiome.

Family history and genetic risk score combined to guide cancer risk stratification: A prospective cohort study

Family history (FH) of cancer and polygenic risk scores (PRS) are pivotal for cancer risk assessment, yet their combined impact remains unclear. Participants in the UK Biobank (UKB) were recruited between 2006 and 2010, with complete follow-up data updated until February 2020 for Scotland and January 2021 for England and Wales. Using UKB data (N = 442,399), we constructed PRS and incidence-weighted overall cancer PRS (CPRS). FH was assessed through self-reported standardized questions. Among 202,801 men (34.6% with FH) and 239,598 women (42.0% with FH), Cox regression was used to examine the associations between FH, PRS, and cancer risk. We found a significant dose-response relationship between FH of cancer and corresponding cancer risk (Ptrend < .05), with over 10 significant pairs of cross-cancer effects of FH. FH and PRS are positively correlated and independent. Joint effects of FH of cancer (multiple cancers) and PRS (CPRS) on corresponding cancer risk were observed: for instance, compared with participants with no FH of cancer and low PRS, men with FH of cancer and high PRS had the highest risk of colorectal cancer (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.69, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.01-4.52). Additive interactions were observed in prostate and overall cancer risk for men and breast cancer for women, with the most significant result being a relative excess risk of interaction (RERI) of 2.98, accounting for ~34% of the prostate cancer risk. In conclusion, FH and PRS collectively contribute to cancer risk, supporting their combined application in personalized risk assessment and early intervention strategies.

Early-onset cancers: Biological bases and clinical implications

Since the nineties, the incidence of sporadic early-onset (EO) cancers has been rising worldwide. The underlying reasons are still unknown. However, identifying them is vital for advancing both prevention and intervention. Here, we exploit available knowledge derived from clinical observations to formulate testable hypotheses aimed at defining the causal factors of this epidemic and discuss how to experimentally test them. We explore the potential impact of exposome changes from the millennials to contemporary young generations, considering both environmental exposures and enhanced susceptibilities to EO-cancer development. We emphasize how establishing the time required for an EO cancer to develop is relevant to defining future screening strategies. Finally, we discuss the importance of integrating multi-dimensional data from international collaborations to generate comprehensive knowledge and translate these findings back into clinical practice.

Balancing the efforts of chart review and gains in PRS prediction accuracy: An empirical study

OBJECTIVE

Phenotypic misclassification in genetic association analyses can impact the accuracy of PRS-based prediction models. The bias reduction method proposed by Tong et al. (2019) has demonstrated its efficacy in reducing the effects of bias on the estimation of association parameters between genotype and phenotype while minimizing variance by employing chart reviews on a subset of the data for validating phenotypes, however its improvement of subsequent PRS prediction accuracy remains unclear. Our study aims to fill this gap by assessing the performance of simulated PRS models and estimating the optimal number of chart reviews needed for validation.

METHODS

To comprehensively assess the efficacy of the bias reduction method proposed by Tong et al. in enhancing the accuracy of PRS-based prediction models, we simulated each phenotype under different correlation structures (an independent model, a weakly correlated model, a strongly correlated model) and introduced error-prone phenotypes using two distinct error mechanisms (differential and non-differential phenotyping errors). To facilitate this, we used genotype and phenotype data from 12 case-control datasets in the Alzheimer's Disease Genetics Consortium (ADGC) to produce simulated phenotypes. The evaluation included analyses across various misclassification rates of original phenotypes as well as quantities of validation set. Additionally, we determined the median threshold, identifying the minimal validation size required for a meaningful improvement in the accuracy of PRS-based predictions across a broad spectrum.

RESULTS

This simulation study demonstrated that incorporating chart review does not universally guarantee enhanced performance of PRS-based prediction models. Specifically, in scenarios with minimal misclassification rates and limited validation sizes, PRS models utilizing debiased regression coefficients demonstrated inferior predictive capabilities compared to models using error-prone phenotypes. Put differently, the effectiveness of the bias reduction method is contingent upon the misclassification rates of phenotypes and the size of the validation set employed during chart reviews. Notably, when dealing with datasets featuring higher misclassification rates, the advantages of utilizing this bias reduction method become more evident, requiring a smaller validation set to achieve better performance.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the importance of choosing an appropriate validation set size to balance between the efforts of chart review and the gain in PRS prediction accuracy. Consequently, our study establishes a valuable guidance for validation planning, across a diverse array of sensitivity and specificity combinations.

Red and Processed Meat Intake, Polygenic Risk and the Prevalence of Colorectal Neoplasms: Results from a Screening Colonoscopy Population

High red and processed meat intake and genetic predisposition are risk factors of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, evidence of their independent and joint associations on the risk of colorectal neoplasms is limited. We assessed these associations among 4774 men and women undergoing screening colonoscopy. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) were calculated based on 140 loci related to CRC. We used multiple logistic regression models to evaluate the associations of red and processed meat intake and PRS with the risk of colorectal neoplasms. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) were translated to genetic risk equivalents (GREs) to compare the strength of the associations with colorectal neoplasm risk of both factors. Compared to ≤1 time/week, processed meat intake >1 time/week was associated with a significantly increased risk of colorectal neoplasm [aOR (95% CI): 1.28 (1.12-1.46)]. This risk increase was equivalent to the risk increase associated with a 19 percentile higher PRS. The association of red meat intake with colorectal neoplasm was weaker and did not reach statistical significance. High processed meat intake and PRS contribute to colorectal neoplasm risk independently. Limiting processed meat intake may offset a substantial proportion of the genetically increased risk of colorectal neoplasms.

Colorectal cancer risk stratification using a polygenic risk score in symptomatic primary care patients-a UK Biobank retrospective cohort study

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. Accurate cancer risk assessment approaches could increase rates of early CRC diagnosis, improve health outcomes for patients and reduce pressure on diagnostic services. The faecal immunochemical test (FIT) for blood in stool is widely used in primary care to identify symptomatic patients with likely CRC. However, there is a 6-16% noncompliance rate with FIT in clinic and ~90% of patients over the symptomatic 10 µg/g test threshold do not have CRC. A polygenic risk score (PRS) quantifies an individual's genetic risk of a condition based on many common variants. Existing PRS for CRC have so far been used to stratify asymptomatic populations. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 50,387 UK Biobank participants with a CRC symptom in their primary care record at age 40+. A PRS based on 201 variants, 5 genetic principal components and 22 other risk factors and markers for CRC were assessed for association with CRC diagnosis within 2 years of first symptom presentation using logistic regression. Associated variables were included in an integrated risk model and trained in 80% of the cohort to predict CRC diagnosis within 2 years. An integrated risk model combining PRS, age, sex, and patient-reported symptoms was predictive of CRC development in a testing cohort (receiver operating characteristic area under the curve, ROCAUC: 0.76, 95% confidence interval: 0.71-0.81). This model has the potential to improve early diagnosis of CRC, particularly in cases of patient noncompliance with FIT.

Recent Insights into Nanotechnology in Colorectal Cancer

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third cancer among the known causes of cancer that impact people. Although CRC drug options are imperfect, primary detection of CRC can play a key role in treating the disease and reducing mortality. Cancer tissues show many molecular markers that can be used as a new way to advance therapeutic methods. Nanotechnology includes a wide range of nanomaterials with high diagnostic and therapeutic power. Several nanomaterials and nanoformulations can be used to treat cancer, especially CRC. In this review, we discuss recent insights into nanotechnology in colorectal cancer.

Construction of a new prognostic model for colorectal cancer based on bulk RNA-seq combined with The Cancer Genome Atlas data

Background

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the leading causes of cancer-related deaths, and improving the prognosis of CRC patients is an urgent concern. The aim of this study was to explore new immunotherapy targets to improve survival in CRC patients.

Methods

We analyzed CRC-related single-cell data GSE201348 from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database, and identified differentially expressed genes (DEGs). Subsequently, we performed differential analysis on the rectum adenocarcinoma (READ) and colon adenocarcinoma (COAD) transcriptome sequencing data [The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA)-CRC queue] and clinical data downloaded from TCGA database. Subgroup analysis was performed using CIBERSORTx and cluster analysis. Finally, biomarkers were identified by one-way cox regression as well as least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analysis.

Results

In this study, we analyzed CRC-related single-cell data GSE201348, and identified 5,210 DEGs. Subsequently, we performed differential analysis on the TCGA-CRC queue database, and obtained 4,408 DEGs. Then, we categorized the cancer samples in the sequencing data into three groups (k1, k2, and k3), with significant differences observed between the k1 and k2 groups via survival analysis. Further differential analysis on the samples in the k1 and k2 groups identified 1,899 DEGs. A total of 77 DEGs were selected among those DEGs obtained from three differential analyses. Through subsequent Cox univariate analysis and LASSO analysis, seven biomarkers (RETNLB, CLCA4, UGT2A3, SULT1B1, CCL24, BMP5, and ATOH1) were identified and selected to establish a risk score (RS).

Conclusions

To sum up, this study demonstrates the potential of the seven-gene prognostic risk model as instrumental variables for predicting the prognosis of CRC.

Effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening integrating non-genetic and genetic risk: a prospective study based on UK Biobank data

OBJECTIVE

Few studies have evaluated the benefits of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening integrating both non-genetic and genetic risk factors. Here, we aimed to integrate an existing non-genetic risk model (QCancer-10) and a 139-variant polygenic risk score to evaluate the effectiveness of screening on CRC incidence and mortality.

METHODS

We applied the integrated model to calculate 10-year CRC risk for 430,908 participants in the UK Biobank, and divided the participants into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. We calculated the screening-associated hazard ratios (HRs) and absolute risk reductions (ARRs) for CRC incidence and mortality according to risk stratification.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 11.03 years and 12.60 years, we observed 5,158 CRC cases and 1,487 CRC deaths, respectively. CRC incidence and mortality were significantly lower among screened than non-screened participants in both the intermediate- and high-risk groups [incidence: HR: 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.81-0.94; 0.81, 0.73-0.90; mortality: 0.75, 0.64-0.87; 0.70, 0.58-0.85], which composed approximately 60% of the study population. The ARRs (95% CI) were 0.17 (0.11-0.24) and 0.43 (0.24-0.61), respectively, for CRC incidence, and 0.08 (0.05-0.11) and 0.24 (0.15-0.33), respectively, for mortality. Screening did not significantly reduce the relative or absolute risk of CRC incidence and mortality in the low-risk group. Further analysis revealed that screening was most effective for men and individuals with distal CRC among the intermediate to high-risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

After integrating both genetic and non-genetic factors, our findings provided priority evidence of risk-stratified CRC screening and valuable insights for the rational allocation of health resources.

Trends and hotspots in gastrointestinal neoplasms risk assessment: A bibliometric analysis from 1984 to 2022

BACKGROUND

Gastrointestinal neoplasm (GN) significantly impact the global cancer burden and mortality, necessitating early detection and treatment. Understanding the evolution and current state of research in this field is vital.

AIM

To conducts a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of publications from 1984 to 2022 to elucidate the trends and hotspots in the GN risk assessment research, focusing on key contributors, institutions, and thematic evolution.

METHODS

This study conducted a bibliometric analysis of data from the Web of Science Core Collection database using the "bibliometrix" R package, VOSviewer, and CiteSpace. The analysis focused on the distribution of publications, contributions by institutions and countries, and trends in keywords. The methods included data synthesis, network analysis, and visualization of international collaboration networks.

RESULTS

This analysis of 1371 articles on GN risk assessment revealed a notable evolution in terms of research focus and collaboration. It highlights the United States' critical role in advancing this field, with significant contributions from institutions such as Brigham and Women's Hospital and the National Cancer Institute. The last five years, substantial advancements have been made, representing nearly 45% of the examined literature. Publication rates have dramatically increased, from 20 articles in 2002 to 112 in 2022, reflecting intensified research efforts. This study underscores a growing trend toward interdisciplinary and international collaboration, with the Journal of Clinical Oncology standing out as a key publication outlet. This shift toward more comprehensive and collaborative research methods marks a significant step in addressing GN risks.

CONCLUSION

This study underscores advancements in GN risk assessment through genetic analyses and machine learning and reveals significant geographical disparities in research emphasis. This calls for enhanced global collaboration and integration of artificial intelligence to improve cancer prevention and treatment accuracy, ultimately enhancing worldwide patient care.

Developing an optimal stratification model for colorectal cancer screening and reducing racial disparities in multi-center population-based studies

BACKGROUND

Early detection of colorectal neoplasms can reduce the colorectal cancer (CRC) burden by timely intervention for high-risk individuals. However, effective risk prediction models are lacking for personalized CRC early screening in East Asian (EAS) population. We aimed to develop, validate, and optimize a comprehensive risk prediction model across all stages of the dynamic adenoma-carcinoma sequence in EAS population.

METHODS

To develop precision risk-stratification and intervention strategies, we developed three trans-ancestry PRSs targeting colorectal neoplasms: (1) using 148 previously identified CRC risk loci (PRS148); (2) SNPs selection from large-scale meta-analysis data by clumping and thresholding (PRS183); (3) PRS-CSx, a Bayesian approach for genome-wide risk prediction (PRSGenomewide). Then, the performance of each PRS was assessed and validated in two independent cross-sectional screening sets, including 4600 patients with advanced colorectal neoplasm, 4495 patients with non-advanced adenoma, and 21,199 normal individuals from the ZJCRC (Zhejiang colorectal cancer set; EAS) and PLCO (the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial; European, EUR) studies. The optimal PRS was further incorporated with lifestyle factors to stratify individual risk and ultimately tested in the PLCO and UK Biobank prospective cohorts, totaling 350,013 participants.

RESULTS

Three trans-ancestry PRSs achieved moderately improved predictive performance in EAS compared to EUR populations. Remarkably, the PRSs effectively facilitated a thorough risk assessment across all stages of the dynamic adenoma-carcinoma sequence. Among these models, PRS183 demonstrated the optimal discriminatory ability in both EAS and EUR validation datasets, particularly for individuals at risk of colorectal neoplasms. Using two large-scale and independent prospective cohorts, we further confirmed a significant dose-response effect of PRS183 on incident colorectal neoplasms. Incorporating PRS183 with lifestyle factors into a comprehensive strategy improves risk stratification and discriminatory accuracy compared to using PRS or lifestyle factors separately. This comprehensive risk-stratified model shows potential in addressing missed diagnoses in screening tests (best NPV = 0.93), while moderately reducing unnecessary screening (best PPV = 0.32).

CONCLUSIONS

Our comprehensive risk-stratified model in population-based CRC screening trials represents a promising advancement in personalized risk assessment, facilitating tailored CRC screening in the EAS population. This approach enhances the transferability of PRSs across ancestries and thereby helps address health disparity.

Genome wide association study and genomic risk prediction of age related macular degeneration in Israel

The risk of developing age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is influenced by genetic background. In 2016, the International AMD Genomics Consortium (IAMDGC) identified 52 risk variants in 34 loci, and a polygenic risk score (PRS) from these variants was associated with AMD. The Israeli population has a unique genetic composition: Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ), Jewish non-Ashkenazi, and Arab sub-populations. We aimed to perform a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for AMD in Israel, and to evaluate PRSs for AMD. Our discovery set recruited 403 AMD patients and 256 controls at Hadassah Medical Center. We genotyped individuals via custom exome chip. We imputed non-typed variants using cosmopolitan and AJ reference panels. We recruited additional 155 cases and 69 controls for validation. To evaluate predictive power of PRSs for AMD, we used IAMDGC summary-statistics excluding our study and developed PRSs via clumping/thresholding or LDpred2. In our discovery set, 31/34 loci reported by IAMDGC were AMD-associated (P < 0.05). Of those, all effects were directionally consistent with IAMDGC and 11 loci had a P-value under Bonferroni-corrected threshold (0.05/34 = 0.0015). At a 5 × 10-5 threshold, we discovered four suggestive associations in FAM189A1, IGDCC4, C7orf50, and CNTNAP4. Only the FAM189A1 variant was AMD-associated in the replication cohort after Bonferroni-correction. A prediction model including LDpred2-based PRS + covariates had an AUC of 0.82 (95% CI 0.79-0.85) and performed better than covariates-only model (P = 5.1 × 10-9). Therefore, previously reported AMD-associated loci were nominally associated with AMD in Israel. A PRS developed based on a large international study is predictive in Israeli populations.

Excess Weight, Polygenic Risk Score, and Findings of Colorectal Neoplasms at Screening Colonoscopy

INTRODUCTION

Excess weight is an established risk factor of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, evidence is lacking on how its impact varies by polygenic risk at different stages of colorectal carcinogenesis.

METHODS

We assessed the individual and joint associations of body mass index (BMI) and polygenic risk scores (PRSs) with findings of colorectal neoplasms among 4,784 participants of screening colonoscopy. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for excess weight derived by multiple logistic regression were converted to genetic risk equivalents (GREs) to quantify the impact of excess weight compared with genetic predisposition.

RESULTS

Overweight and obesity (BMI 25-<30 and ≥30 kg/m 2 ) were associated with increased risk of any colorectal neoplasm (aOR [95% confidence interval, CI] 1.26 [1.09-1.45] and 1.47 [1.24-1.75]). Obesity was associated with increased risk of advanced colorectal neoplasm (aOR [95% CI] 1.46 [1.16-1.84]). Dose-response relationships were seen for the PRS (stronger for advanced neoplasms than any neoplasms), with no interaction with BMI, suggesting multiplicative effects of both factors. Obese participants with a PRS in the highest tertile had a 2.3-fold (95% CI 1.7-3.1) and 2.9-fold (95% CI 1.9-4.3) increased risk of any colorectal neoplasm and advanced colorectal neoplasm, respectively. The aOR of obesity translated into a GRE of 38, meaning that its impact was estimated to be equivalent to the risk caused by 38 percentiles higher PRS for colorectal neoplasm.

DISCUSSION

Excess weight and polygenic risk are associated with increased risk of colorectal neoplasms in a multiplicative manner. Maintaining normal weight is estimated to have an equivalent effect as having 38 percentiles lower PRS.

Colorectal cancer initiation: Understanding early-stage disease for intervention

How tumors arise or the cause of precancerous lesions is a fundamental question in cancer biology. It is generally accepted that tumors originate from normal cells that undergo uncontrolled proliferation owing to genetic alterations. At the onset of adenoma formation, cancer driver mutations confer clonal growth advantage, enabling mutant cells to outcompete and eliminate the surrounding healthy cells. Hence, the development of precancerous lesions is not only attributed to the expansion of pre-malignant clones, but also relies on the relative fitness of mutated cells compared to the neighboring cells. Colorectal cancer (CRC) is an excellent model to investigate cancer origin as it follows a stereotypical process from mutant cell hyperplasia to adenoma formation and progression. Here, we review the evolving understanding of colonic tumor development, focusing on how cell intrinsic and extrinsic factors impact cell competition and the "clone war" between cancer-initiating cells and normal stem cells. We also discuss the promises and limitations of targeting cell competitiveness in cancer prevention and early intervention. The field of tumor initiation is currently in its infancy, elucidating the adenoma origin is crucial for designing effective prevention strategies and early treatments before cancer becomes incurable.

Colorectal Cancer Risk between Mendelian and Non-Mendelian Inheritance

Hereditary colorectal cancer has been an area of focus for research and public health practitioners due to our ability to quantify risk and then act based on such results by enrolling patients in surveillance programs. The wide access to genetic testing and whole-genome sequencing has resulted in identifying many low/moderate penetrance genes. Above all, our understanding of the family component of colorectal cancer has been improving. Polygenic scores are becoming part of the risk assessment for many cancers, and the data about polygenic risk scores for colorectal cancer is promising. The challenge is determining how we incorporate this data in clinical care.

Colon Polyp Surveillance: Separating the Wheat From the Chaff

One goal of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening is to prevent CRC incidence by removing precancerous colonic polyps, which are detected in up to 50% of screening examinations. Yet, the lifetime risk of CRC is 3.9%-4.3%, so it is clear that most of these individuals with polyps would not develop CRC in their lifetime. It is, therefore, a challenge to determine which individuals with polyps will benefit from follow-up, and at what intervals. There is some evidence that individuals with advanced polyps, based on size and histology, benefit from intensive surveillance. However, a large proportion of individuals will have small polyps without advanced histologic features (ie, "nonadvanced"), where the benefits of surveillance are uncertain and controversial. Demand for surveillance will further increase as more polyps are detected due to increased screening uptake, recent United States recommendations to expand screening to younger individuals, and emergence of polyp detection technology. We review the current understanding and clinical implications of the natural history, biology, and outcomes associated with various categories of colon polyps based on size, histology, and number. Our aims are to highlight key knowledge gaps, specifically focusing on certain categories of polyps that may not be associated with future CRC risk, and to provide insights to inform research priorities and potential management strategies. Optimization of CRC prevention programs based on updated knowledge about the future risks associated with various colon polyps is essential to ensure cost-effective screening and surveillance, wise use of resources, and inform efforts to personalize recommendations.

Comparing ancestry calibration approaches for a trans-ancestry colorectal cancer polygenic risk score

Background

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a complex disease with monogenic, polygenic and environmental risk factors. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are being developed to identify high polygenic risk individuals. Due to differences in genetic background, PRS distributions vary by ancestry, necessitating calibration.

Methods

We compared four calibration methods using the All of Us Research Program Whole Genome Sequence data for a CRC PRS previously developed in participants of European and East Asian ancestry. The methods contrasted results from linear models with A) the entire data set or an ancestrally diverse training set AND B) covariates including principal components of ancestry or admixture. Calibration with the training set adjusted the variance in addition to the mean.

Results

All methods performed similarly within ancestry with OR (95% C.I.) per s.d. change in PRS: African 1.5 (1.02, 2.08), Admixed American 2.2 (1.27, 3.85), European 1.6 (1.43, 1.89), and Middle Eastern 1.1 (0.71, 1.63). Using admixture and an ancestrally diverse training set provided distributions closest to standard Normal with accurate upper tail frequencies.

Conclusion

Although the PRS is predictive of CRC risk for most ancestries, its performance varies by ancestry. Post-hoc calibration preserves the risk prediction within ancestries. Training a calibration model on ancestrally diverse participants to adjust both the mean and variance of the PRS, using admixture as covariates, created standard Normal z-scores. These z-scores can be used to identify patients at high polygenic risk, and can be incorporated into comprehensive risk scores including other known risk factors, allowing for more precise risk estimates.

A review of disease risk prediction methods and applications in the omics era

Risk prediction and disease prevention are the innovative care challenges of the 21st century. Apart from freeing the individual from the pain of disease, it will lead to low medical costs for society. Until very recently, risk assessments have ushered in a new era with the emergence of omics technologies, including genomics, transcriptomics, epigenomics, proteomics, and so on, which potentially advance the ability of biomarkers to aid prediction models. While risk prediction has achieved great success, there are still some challenges and limitations. We reviewed the general process of omics-based disease risk model construction and the applications in four typical diseases. Meanwhile, we highlighted the problems in current studies and explored the potential opportunities and challenges for future clinical practice.

Breast and bowel cancers diagnosed in people 'too young to have cancer': A blueprint for research using family and twin studies

Young breast and bowel cancers (e.g., those diagnosed before age 40 or 50 years) have far greater morbidity and mortality in terms of years of life lost, and are increasing in incidence, but have been less studied. For breast and bowel cancers, the familial relative risks, and therefore the familial variances in age-specific log(incidence), are much greater at younger ages, but little of these familial variances has been explained. Studies of families and twins can address questions not easily answered by studies of unrelated individuals alone. We describe existing and emerging family and twin data that can provide special opportunities for discovery. We present designs and statistical analyses, including novel ideas such as the VALID (Variance in Age-specific Log Incidence Decomposition) model for causes of variation in risk, the DEPTH (DEPendency of association on the number of Top Hits) and other approaches to analyse genome-wide association study data, and the within-pair, ICE FALCON (Inference about Causation from Examining FAmiliaL CONfounding) and ICE CRISTAL (Inference about Causation from Examining Changes in Regression coefficients and Innovative STatistical AnaLysis) approaches to causation and familial confounding. Example applications to breast and colorectal cancer are presented. Motivated by the availability of the resources of the Breast and Colon Cancer Family Registries, we also present some ideas for future studies that could be applied to, and compared with, cancers diagnosed at older ages and address the challenges posed by young breast and bowel cancers.

Causation and familial confounding as explanations for the associations of polygenic risk scores with breast cancer: Evidence from innovative ICE FALCON and ICE CRISTAL analyses

A polygenic risk score (PRS) combines the associations of multiple genetic variants that could be due to direct causal effects, indirect genetic effects, or other sources of familial confounding. We have developed new approaches to assess evidence for and against causation by using family data for pairs of relatives (Inference about Causation from Examination of FAmiliaL CONfounding [ICE FALCON]) or measures of family history (Inference about Causation from Examining Changes in Regression coefficients and Innovative STatistical AnaLyses [ICE CRISTAL]). Inference is made from the changes in regression coefficients of relatives' PRSs or PRS and family history before and after adjusting for each other. We applied these approaches to two breast cancer PRSs and multiple studies and found that (a) for breast cancer diagnosed at a young age, for example, <50 years, there was no evidence that the PRSs were causal, while (b) for breast cancer diagnosed at later ages, there was consistent evidence for causation explaining increasing amounts of the PRS-disease association. The genetic variants in the PRS might be in linkage disequilibrium with truly causal variants and not causal themselves. These PRSs cause minimal heritability of breast cancer at younger ages. There is also evidence for nongenetic factors shared by first-degree relatives that explain breast cancer familial aggregation. Familial associations are not necessarily due to genes, and genetic associations are not necessarily causal.

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores for colorectal cancer have implications for risk-based screening

BACKGROUND

Hereditary factors, including single genetic variants and family history, can be used for targeting colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, but limited data exist on the impact of polygenic risk scores (PRS) on risk-based CRC screening.

METHODS

Using longitudinal health and genomics data on 453,733 Finnish individuals including 8801 CRC cases, we estimated the impact of a genome-wide CRC PRS on CRC screening initiation age through population-calibrated incidence estimation over the life course in men and women.

RESULTS

Compared to the cumulative incidence of CRC at age 60 in Finland (the current age for starting screening in Finland), a comparable cumulative incidence was reached 5 and 11 years earlier in persons with high PRS (80-99% and >99%, respectively), while those with a low PRS (< 20%) reached comparable incidence 7 years later. The PRS was associated with increased risk of post-colonoscopy CRC after negative colonoscopy (hazard ratio 1.76 per PRS SD, 95% CI 1.54-2.01). Moreover, the PRS predicted colorectal adenoma incidence and improved incident CRC risk prediction over non-genetic risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrate that a CRC PRS can be used for risk stratification of CRC, with further research needed to optimally integrate the PRS into risk-based screening.

Polygenic risk scores, radiation treatment exposures and subsequent cancer risk in childhood cancer survivors

Survivors of childhood cancer are at increased risk for subsequent cancers attributable to the late effects of radiotherapy and other treatment exposures; thus, further understanding of the impact of genetic predisposition on risk is needed. Combining genotype data for 11,220 5-year survivors from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and the St Jude Lifetime Cohort, we found that cancer-specific polygenic risk scores (PRSs) derived from general population, genome-wide association study, cancer loci identified survivors of European ancestry at increased risk of subsequent basal cell carcinoma (odds ratio per s.d. of the PRS: OR = 1.37, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.29-1.46), female breast cancer (OR = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.27-1.58), thyroid cancer (OR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.31-1.67), squamous cell carcinoma (OR = 1.20, 95% CI = 1.00-1.44) and melanoma (OR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.31-1.96); however, the association for colorectal cancer was not significant (OR = 1.19, 95% CI = 0.94-1.52). An investigation of joint associations between PRSs and radiotherapy found more than additive increased risks of basal cell carcinoma, and breast and thyroid cancers. For survivors with radiotherapy exposure, the cumulative incidence of subsequent cancer by age 50 years was increased for those with high versus low PRS. These findings suggest a degree of shared genetic etiology for these malignancy types in the general population and survivors, which remains evident in the context of strong radiotherapy-related risk.

Improving polygenic risk prediction in admixed populations by explicitly modeling ancestral-differential effects via GAUDI

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have shown successes in clinics, but most PRS methods focus only on participants with distinct primary continental ancestry without accommodating recently-admixed individuals with mosaic continental ancestry backgrounds for different segments of their genomes. Here, we develop GAUDI, a novel penalized-regression-based method specifically designed for admixed individuals. GAUDI explicitly models ancestry-differential effects while borrowing information across segments with shared ancestry in admixed genomes. We demonstrate marked advantages of GAUDI over other methods through comprehensive simulation and real data analyses for traits with associated variants exhibiting ancestral-differential effects. Leveraging data from the Women's Health Initiative study, we show that GAUDI improves PRS prediction of white blood cell count and C-reactive protein in African Americans by > 64% compared to alternative methods, and even outperforms PRS-CSx with large European GWAS for some scenarios. We believe GAUDI will be a valuable tool to mitigate disparities in PRS performance in admixed individuals.

Genome-wide Polygenic Risk Scores Predict Risk of Glioma and Molecular Subtypes

Background

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) aggregate the contribution of many risk variants to provide a personalized genetic susceptibility profile. Since sample sizes of glioma genome-wide association studies (GWAS) remain modest, there is a need to find efficient ways of capturing genetic risk factors using available germline data.

Methods

We developed a novel PRS (PRS-CS) that uses continuous shrinkage priors to model the joint effects of over 1 million polymorphisms on disease risk and compared it to an approach (PRS-CT) that selects a limited set of independent variants that reach genome-wide significance (P<5×10-8). PRS models were trained using GWAS results stratified by histological (10,346 cases, 14,687 controls) and molecular subtype (2,632 cases, 2,445 controls), and validated in two independent cohorts.

Results

PRS-CS was consistently more predictive than PRS-CT across glioma subtypes with an average increase in explained variance (R2) of 21%. Improvements were particularly pronounced for glioblastoma tumors, with PRS-CS yielding larger effect sizes (odds ratio (OR)=1.93, P=2.0×10-54 vs. OR=1.83, P=9.4×10-50) and higher explained variance (R2=2.82% vs. R2=2.56%). Individuals in the 95th percentile of the PRS-CS distribution had a 3-fold higher lifetime absolute risk of IDH mutant (0.63%) and IDH wildtype (0.76%) glioma relative to individuals with average PRS. PRS-CS also showed high classification accuracy for IDH mutation status among cases (AUC=0.895).

Conclusions

Our novel genome-wide PRS may improve the identification of high-risk individuals and help distinguish between prognostic glioma subtypes, increasing the potential clinical utility of germline genetics in glioma patient management.

Genomic Machine Learning Meta-regression: Insights on Associations of Study Features With Reported Model Performance

Many studies have been conducted with the goal of correctly predicting diagnostic status of a disorder using the combination of genomic data and machine learning. It is often hard to judge which components of a study led to better results and whether better reported results represent a true improvement or an uncorrected bias inflating performance. We extracted information about the methods used and other differentiating features in genomic machine learning models. We used these features in linear regressions predicting model performance. We tested for univariate and multivariate associations as well as interactions between features. Of the models reviewed, 46% used feature selection methods that can lead to data leakage. Across our models, the number of hyperparameter optimizations reported, data leakage due to feature selection, model type, and modeling an autoimmune disorder were significantly associated with an increase in reported model performance. We found a significant, negative interaction between data leakage and training size. Our results suggest that methods susceptible to data leakage are prevalent among genomic machine learning research, resulting in inflated reported performance. Best practice guidelines that promote the avoidance and recognition of data leakage may help the field avoid biased results.

Development of a Novel Lipid Metabolism-related Gene Prognostic Signature for Patients with Colorectal Cancer

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to explore the expression profiles of lipid metabolism-related genes in patients with Colorectal Cancer (CRC).

METHODS

The lipid metabolism statuses of CRC patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) were analyzed. Risk characteristics were constructed by univariate Cox regression and minimum Absolute contraction and Selection Operator (LASSO) Cox regression. A histogram was constructed based on factors such as age, sex, TNM stage, T stage, N stage, and risk score to provide a visual tool for clinicians to predict the probability of 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS for CRC patients. By determining Area Under Curve (AUC) values, the time-dependent Receiver Operating characteristic Curve (ROC) was used to evaluate the efficiency of our model in predicting prognosis.

RESULTS

A novel risk signal based on lipid metabolism-related genes was constructed to predict the survival of CRC patients. Risk characteristics were shown to be an independent prognostic factor in CRC patients (p <0.001). There were significant differences in the abundance and immune characteristics of tumor-filtering immune cells between high-risk and low-risk groups. The nomogram had a high potential for clinical application and the ROC AUC value was 0.827. Moreover, ROC analysis demonstrated that the nomogram model was more accurate to predict the survival of CRC patients than age, gender, stage and risk score.

CONCLUSION

In this study, we demonstrated a lipid metabolism-related genes prognosis biomarker associated with the tumor immune micro-environment in patients with CRC.

Risk-Stratified Screening for Colorectal Cancer Using Genetic and Environmental Risk Factors: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Based on Real-World Data

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Previous studies on the cost-effectiveness of personalized colorectal cancer (CRC) screening were based on hypothetical performance of CRC risk prediction and did not consider the association with competing causes of death. In this study, we estimated the cost-effectiveness of risk-stratified screening using real-world data for CRC risk and competing causes of death.

METHODS

Risk predictions for CRC and competing causes of death from a large community-based cohort were used to stratify individuals into risk groups. A microsimulation model was used to optimize colonoscopy screening for each risk group by varying the start age (40-60 years), end age (70-85 years), and screening interval (5-15 years). The outcomes included personalized screening ages and intervals and cost-effectiveness compared with uniform colonoscopy screening (ages 45-75, every 10 years). Key assumptions were varied in sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Risk-stratified screening resulted in substantially different screening recommendations, ranging from a one-time colonoscopy at age 60 for low-risk individuals to a colonoscopy every 5 years from ages 40 to 85 for high-risk individuals. Nevertheless, on a population level, risk-stratified screening would increase net quality-adjusted life years gained (QALYG) by only 0.7% at equal costs to uniform screening or reduce average costs by 1.2% for equal QALYG. The benefit of risk-stratified screening improved when it was assumed to increase participation or costs less per genetic test.

CONCLUSIONS

Personalized screening for CRC, accounting for competing causes of death risk, could result in highly tailored individual screening programs. However, average improvements across the population in QALYG and cost-effectiveness compared with uniform screening are small.

High polygenic risk score is a risk factor associated with colorectal cancer based on data from the UK Biobank

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a common cancer among both men and women and is one of the leading causes of cancer death worldwide. It is important to identify risk factors that may be used to help reduce morbidity and mortality of the disease. We used a case-control study design to explore the association between CRC, polygenic risk scores (PRS), and other factors. We extracted data about 2,585 CRC cases and 9,362 controls from the UK Biobank, calculated the PRS for these cases and controls based on 140 single nucleotide polymorphisms, and performed logistic regression analyses for the 11,947 cases and controls, for an older group (ages 50+), and for a younger group (younger than 50). Five significant risk factors were identified when all 11,947 cases and controls were considered. These factors were, in descending order of the values of the adjusted odds ratios (aOR), high PRS (aOR: 2.70, CI: 2.27-3.19), male sex (aOR: 1.52, CI: 1.39-1.66), unemployment (aOR: 1.47, CI: 1.17-1.85), family history of CRC (aOR: 1.44, CI: 1.28-1.62), and age (aOR: 1.01, CI: 1.01-1.02). These five risk factors also remained significant in the older group. For the younger group, only high PRS (aOR: 2.87, CI: 1.65-5.00) and family history of CRC (aOR: 1.73, CI: 1.12-2.67) were significant risk factors. These findings indicate that genetic risk for the disease is a significant risk factor for CRC even after adjusting for family history. Additional studies are needed to examine this association using larger samples and different population groups.

Association study for the role of MMP8 gene polymorphisms in Colorectal cancer susceptibility

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common malignant tumors, influenced by several genetic loci in its clinical phenotypes. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between the MMP8 gene polymorphism and CRC risk in the Chinese Han population.

METHOD

This study recruited 688 CRC patients and 690 healthy controls. The relationship between MMP8 polymorphism and CRC susceptibility was assessed by calculating the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) after stratifying by age, gender, body mass index (BMI), smoking, and alcohol consumption under a multi-genetic model.

RESULTS

MMP8 rs3740938 was associated with increased CRC predisposition (p = 0.016, OR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.04-1.48), and this association was detected particularly in subjects aged > 60 years, females, people with BMI > 24 kg/m2, smokers, and drinkers. Moreover, rs3740938 was found to be associated with the pathological type of rectal cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results first displayed that rs3740938 in MMP8 was a risk factor for CRC predisposition. This finding may provide a new biological perspective for understanding the role of the MMP8 gene in CRC pathogenesis.

Ability of a polygenic risk score to refine colorectal cancer risk in Lynch syndrome

BACKGROUND

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been used to stratify colorectal cancer (CRC) risk in the general population, whereas its role in Lynch syndrome (LS), the most common type of hereditary CRC, is still conflicting. We aimed to assess the ability of PRS to refine CRC risk prediction in European-descendant individuals with LS.

METHODS

1465 individuals with LS (557 MLH1, 517 MSH2/EPCAM, 299 MSH6 and 92 PMS2) and 5656 CRC-free population-based controls from two independent cohorts were included. A 91-SNP PRS was applied. A Cox proportional hazard regression model with 'family' as a random effect and a logistic regression analysis, followed by a meta-analysis combining both cohorts were conducted.

RESULTS

Overall, we did not observe a statistically significant association between PRS and CRC risk in the entire cohort. Nevertheless, PRS was significantly associated with a slightly increased risk of CRC or advanced adenoma (AA), in those with CRC diagnosed <50 years and in individuals with multiple CRCs or AAs diagnosed <60 years.

CONCLUSION

The PRS may slightly influence CRC risk in individuals with LS in particular in more extreme phenotypes such as early-onset disease. However, the study design and recruitment strategy strongly influence the results of PRS studies. A separate analysis by genes and its combination with other genetic and non-genetic risk factors will help refine its role as a risk modifier in LS.

Colorectal Cancer Polygenic Risk Score Is Associated With Screening Colonoscopy Findings but Not Follow-Up Outcomes

Background and Aims

Colorectal cancer (CRC) polygenic risk scores (PRS) may help personalize CRC prevention strategies. We investigated whether an existing PRS was associated with advanced neoplasia (AN) in a population undergoing screening and follow-up colonoscopy.

Methods

We evaluated 10-year outcomes in the Cooperative Studies Program #380 screening colonoscopy cohort, which includes a biorepository of selected individuals with baseline AN (defined as CRC or adenoma ≥10 mm or villous histology, or high-grade dysplasia) and matched individuals without AN. A PRS was constructed from 136 prespecified CRC-risk single nucleotide polymorphisms. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the PRS for associations with AN prevalence at baseline screening colonoscopy or incident AN in participants with at least one follow-up colonoscopy.

Results

The PRS was associated with AN risk at baseline screening colonoscopy (P = .004). Participants in the lowest PRS quintile had more than a 70% decreased risk of AN at baseline (odds ratio 0.29, 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.58; P < .001) compared to participants with a PRS in the middle quintile. Using a PRS cut-off of more than the first quintile to indicate need for colonoscopy as primary screening, the sensitivity for detecting AN at baseline is 91.8%. We did not observe a relationship between the PRS and incident AN during follow-up (P = .28).

Conclusion

A PRS could identify individuals at low risk for prevalent AN. Ongoing work will determine whether this PRS can identify a subset of individuals at sufficiently low risk who could safely delay or be reassured about noninvasive screening. Otherwise, more research is needed to augment these genetic tools to predict incident AN during long-term follow-up.

Combining Asian and European genome-wide association studies of colorectal cancer improves risk prediction across racial and ethnic populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have great potential to guide precision colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention by identifying those at higher risk to undertake targeted screening. However, current PRS using European ancestry data have sub-optimal performance in non-European ancestry populations, limiting their utility among these populations. Towards addressing this deficiency, we expand PRS development for CRC by incorporating Asian ancestry data (21,731 cases; 47,444 controls) into European ancestry training datasets (78,473 cases; 107,143 controls). The AUC estimates (95% CI) of PRS are 0.63(0.62-0.64), 0.59(0.57-0.61), 0.62(0.60-0.63), and 0.65(0.63-0.66) in independent datasets including 1681-3651 cases and 8696-115,105 controls of Asian, Black/African American, Latinx/Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White, respectively. They are significantly better than the European-centric PRS in all four major US racial and ethnic groups (p-values < 0.05). Further inclusion of non-European ancestry populations, especially Black/African American and Latinx/Hispanic, is needed to improve the risk prediction and enhance equity in applying PRS in clinical practice.

Personalized Initial Screening Age for Colorectal Cancer in Individuals at Average Risk

Importance

Colorectal cancer (CRC) risk varies widely in the population at average risk without a family history, but there are no established routines for translating this variation into personalized starting ages of screening.

Objective

To illustrate derivation of risk-adapted starting ages of CRC screening based on the concept of risk advancement period (RAP) using sex and a polygenic risk score (PRS) as an example.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study included participants in the UK Biobank study recruited in England, Wales, and Scotland between March 13, 2006, and October 1, 2010. Participants were aged 40 to 69 years, with no previous bowel cancer screening and no family history of CRC. Follow-up of cancer data was completed February 29, 2020, for England and Wales and January 31, 2021, for Scotland. The censoring date for death data was September 30, 2021, for England and Wales and October 31, 2021, for Scotland.

Exposures

Data on age, sex, and family history were collected at the baseline interview. A PRS was calculated based on 139 CRC-related risk loci.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Hazard ratios (HRs) of sex and PRS with CRC risk and mortality were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models and were translated to RAPs to quantify how many years of age earlier or later men and individuals in higher or lower PRS deciles would reach risks comparable with those of the reference group (ie, women or those in the 5th and 6th PRS deciles).

Results

Among 242 779 participants (median age, 55 [IQR, 48-61] years; 55.7% women), 2714 incident CRC cases were identified during a median follow-up of 11.2 (IQR, 10.5-11.8) years and 758 deaths during a median follow-up of 12.8 (IQR, 12.0-13.4) years. The HRs of CRC risk were 1.57 (95% CI, 1.46-1.70) for men vs women and ranged from 0.51 (95% CI, 0.41-0.62) to 2.29 (95% CI, 2.01-2.62) across PRS deciles compared with the reference. The RAPs were 5.6 (95% CI, 4.6-6.6) years for men vs women and ranged from -8.4 (95% CI, -11.0 to -5.9) to 10.3 (95% CI, 8.5-12.1) years across PRS deciles compared with the reference deciles. Risk-adapted starting ages of screening would vary by 24 years between men in the highest PRS decile and women in the lowest PRS decile. Similar results were obtained regarding CRC mortality.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this large cohort study including women and men at average risk of CRC, risk-adapted starting ages of screening strongly varied by sex and a PRS. The RAP concept could easily accommodate additional factors for defining personalized starting ages of screening.

Genome-wide association study and genomic risk prediction of age-related macular degeneration in Israel

Purpose

The risk of developing age-related macular degeneration(AMD) is influenced by genetic background. In 2016, International AMD Genomics Consortium(IAMDGC) identified 52 risk variants in 34 loci, and a polygenic risk score(PRS) based on these variants was associated with AMD. The Israeli population has a unique genetic composition: Ashkenazi Jewish(AJ), Jewish non-Ashkenazi, and Arab sub-populations. We aimed to perform a genome-wide association study(GWAS) for AMD in Israel, and to evaluate PRSs for AMD.

Methods

For our discovery set, we recruited 403 AMD patients and 256 controls at Hadassah Medical Center. We genotyped all individuals via custom exome chip. We imputed non-typed variants using cosmopolitan and AJ reference panels. We recruited additional 155 cases and 69 controls for validation. To evaluate predictive power of PRSs for AMD, we used IAMDGC summary statistics excluding our study and developed PRSs via either clumping/thresholding or LDpred2.

Results

In our discovery set, 31/34 loci previously reported by the IAMDGC were AMD associated with P<0.05. Of those, all effects were directionally consistent with the IAMDGC and 11 loci had a p-value under Bonferroni-corrected threshold(0.05/34=0.0015). At a threshold of 5x10 -5 , we discovered four suggestive associations in FAM189A1 , IGDCC4 , C7orf50 , and CNTNAP4 . However, only the FAM189A1 variant was AMD associated in the replication cohort after Bonferroni-correction. A prediction model including LDpred2-based PRS and other covariates had an AUC of 0.82(95%CI:0.79-0.85) and performed better than a covariates-only model(P=5.1x10 -9 ).

Conclusions

Previously reported AMD-associated loci were nominally associated with AMD in Israel. A PRS developed based on a large international study is predictive in Israeli populations.

Polygenic scores in cancer

Since the publication of the first genome-wide association study for cancer in 2007, thousands of common alleles that are associated with the risk of cancer have been identified. The relative risk associated with individual variants is small and of limited clinical significance. However, the combined effect of multiple risk variants as captured by polygenic scores (PGSs) may be much greater and therefore provide risk discrimination that is clinically useful. We review the considerable research efforts over the past 15 years for developing statistical methods for PGSs and their application in large-scale genome-wide association studies to develop PGSs for various cancers. We review the predictive performance of these PGSs and the multiple challenges currently limiting the clinical application of PGSs. Despite this, PGSs are beginning to be incorporated into clinical multifactorial risk prediction models to stratify risk in both clinical trials and clinical implementation studies.

Variant-based heritability assessment of dexmedetomidine and fentanyl clearance in pediatric patients

Despite complex pathways of drug disposition, clinical pharmacogenetic predictors currently rely on only a few high effect variants. Quantification of the polygenic contribution to variability in drug disposition is necessary to prioritize target drugs for pharmacogenomic approaches and guide analytic methods. Dexmedetomidine and fentanyl, often used in postoperative care of pediatric patients, have high rates of inter-individual variability in dosing requirements. Analyzing previously generated population pharmacokinetic parameters, we used Bayesian hierarchical mixed modeling to measure narrow-sense (additive) heritability (h SNP 2 ) of dexmedetomidine and fentanyl clearance in children and identify relative contributions of small, moderate, and large effect-size variants toh SNP 2 . We used genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to identify variants contributing to variation in dexmedetomidine and fentanyl clearance, followed by functional analyses to identify associated pathways. For dexmedetomidine, median clearance was 33.0 L/h (interquartile range [IQR] 23.8-47.9 L/h) andh SNP 2 was estimated to be 0.35 (90% credible interval 0.00-0.90), with 45% ofh SNP 2 attributed to large-, 32% to moderate-, and 23% to small-effect variants. The fentanyl cohort had median clearance of 8.2 L/h (IQR 4.7-16.7 L/h), with estimatedh SNP 2 of 0.30 (90% credible interval 0.00-0.84). Large-effect variants accounted for 30% ofh SNP 2 , whereas moderate- and small-effect variants accounted for 37% and 33%, respectively. As expected, given small sample sizes, no individual variants or pathways were significantly associated with dexmedetomidine or fentanyl clearance by GWAS. We conclude that clearance of both drugs is highly polygenic, motivating the future use of polygenic risk scores to guide appropriate dosing of dexmedetomidine and fentanyl.

In Utero and Childhood/Adolescence Exposure to Tobacco Smoke, Genetic Risk, and Cancer Incidence in Adulthood: A Prospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association of early-life tobacco smoke exposure, especially interacting with cancer genetic variants, with adult cancer.

PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS

We examined the associations of in utero tobacco smoke exposure, age of smoking initiation, and their interaction with genetic risk levels with cancer incidence in 393,081 participants from the UK Biobank. Information on tobacco exposure was obtained by self-reported questionnaires. A cancer polygenic risk score was constructed by weighting and integrating 702 genome-wide association studies-identified risk variants. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for overall cancer and organ-specific cancer incidence.

RESULTS

During 11.8 years of follow-up, 23,450 (5.97%) and 23,413 (6.03%) incident cancers were included in the analyses of in utero exposure and age of smoking initiation, respectively. The HR (95% CI) for incident cancer in participants with in utero exposure to tobacco smoke was 1.04 (1.01-1.07) for overall cancer, 1.59 (1.44-1.75) for respiratory cancer, and 1.09 (1.03-1.17) for gastrointestinal cancer. The relative risk of incident cancer increased with earlier smoking initiation (Ptrend<.001), with the HR (95% CI) of 1.44 (1.36-1.51) for overall cancer, 13.28 (11.39-15.48) for respiratory cancer, and 1.72 (1.54-1.91) for gastrointestinal cancer in smokers with initiation in childhood compared with never smokers. Importantly, a positive additive interaction between age of smoking initiation and genetic risk was observed for overall cancer (Padditive=.04) and respiratory cancer (Padditive=.003) incidence.

CONCLUSION

In utero exposure and earlier smoking initiation are associated with overall and organ-specific cancer, and age of smoking initiation interaction with genetic risk is associated with respiratory cancer.

Development of a Polygenic Risk Score for BMI to Assess the Genetic Susceptibility to Obesity and Related Diseases in the Korean Population

Hundreds of genetic variants for body mass index (BMI) have been identified from numerous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in different ethnicities. In this study, we aimed to develop a polygenic risk score (PRS) for BMI for predicting susceptibility to obesity and related traits in the Korean population. For this purpose, we obtained base data resulting from a GWAS on BMI using 57,110 HEXA study subjects from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (KoGES). Subsequently, we calculated PRSs in 13,504 target subjects from the KARE and CAVAS studies of KoGES using the PRSice-2 software. The best-fit PRS for BMI (PRS_BMI) comprising 53,341 SNPs was selected at a p-value threshold of 0.064, at which the model fit had the greatest R² score. The PRS_BMI was tested for its association with obesity-related quantitative traits and diseases in the target dataset. Linear regression analyses demonstrated significant associations of PRS_BMI with BMI, blood pressure, and lipid traits. Logistic regression analyses revealed significant associations of PRS_BMI with obesity, hypertension, and hypo-HDL cholesterolemia. We observed about 2-fold, 1.1-fold, and 1.2-fold risk for obesity, hypertension, and hypo-HDL cholesterolemia, respectively, in the highest-risk group in comparison to the lowest-risk group of PRS_BMI in the test population. We further detected approximately 26.0%, 2.8%, and 3.9% differences in prevalence between the highest and lowest risk groups for obesity, hypertension, and hypo-HDL cholesterolemia, respectively. To predict the incidence of obesity and related diseases, we applied PRS_BMI to the 16-year follow-up data of the KARE study. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the higher the PRS_BMI, the higher the incidence of dyslipidemia and hypo-HDL cholesterolemia. Taken together, this study demonstrated that a PRS developed for BMI may be a valuable indicator to assess the risk of obesity and related diseases in the Korean population.

Evaluating approaches for constructing polygenic risk scores for prostate cancer in men of African and European ancestry

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (GW-PRSs) have been reported to have better predictive ability than PRSs based on genome-wide significance thresholds across numerous traits. We compared the predictive ability of several GW-PRS approaches to a recently developed PRS of 269 established prostate cancer-risk variants from multi-ancestry GWASs and fine-mapping studies (PRS269). GW-PRS models were trained with a large and diverse prostate cancer GWAS of 107,247 cases and 127,006 controls that we previously used to develop the multi-ancestry PRS269. Resulting models were independently tested in 1,586 cases and 1,047 controls of African ancestry from the California Uganda Study and 8,046 cases and 191,825 controls of European ancestry from the UK Biobank and further validated in 13,643 cases and 210,214 controls of European ancestry and 6,353 cases and 53,362 controls of African ancestry from the Million Veteran Program. In the testing data, the best performing GW-PRS approach had AUCs of 0.656 (95% CI = 0.635-0.677) in African and 0.844 (95% CI = 0.840-0.848) in European ancestry men and corresponding prostate cancer ORs of 1.83 (95% CI = 1.67-2.00) and 2.19 (95% CI = 2.14-2.25), respectively, for each SD unit increase in the GW-PRS. Compared to the GW-PRS, in African and European ancestry men, the PRS269 had larger or similar AUCs (AUC = 0.679, 95% CI = 0.659-0.700 and AUC = 0.845, 95% CI = 0.841-0.849, respectively) and comparable prostate cancer ORs (OR = 2.05, 95% CI = 1.87-2.26 and OR = 2.21, 95% CI = 2.16-2.26, respectively). Findings were similar in the validation studies. This investigation suggests that current GW-PRS approaches may not improve the ability to predict prostate cancer risk compared to the PRS269 developed from multi-ancestry GWASs and fine-mapping.

Explainable multi-task learning improves the parallel estimation of polygenic risk scores for many diseases through shared genetic basis

Many complex diseases share common genetic determinants and are comorbid in a population. We hypothesized that the co-occurrences of diseases and their overlapping genetic etiology can be exploited to simultaneously improve multiple diseases' polygenic risk scores (PRS). This hypothesis was tested using a multi-task learning (MTL) approach based on an explainable neural network architecture. We found that parallel estimations of the PRS for 17 prevalent cancers in a pan-cancer MTL model were generally more accurate than independent estimations for individual cancers in comparable single-task learning (STL) models. Such performance improvement conferred by positive transfer learning was also observed consistently for 60 prevalent non-cancer diseases in a pan-disease MTL model. Interpretation of the MTL models revealed significant genetic correlations between the important sets of single nucleotide polymorphisms used by the neural network for PRS estimation. This suggested a well-connected network of diseases with shared genetic basis.

Evaluating Approaches for Constructing Polygenic Risk Scores for Prostate Cancer in Men of African and European Ancestry

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (GW-PRS) have been reported to have better predictive ability than PRS based on genome-wide significance thresholds across numerous traits. We compared the predictive ability of several GW-PRS approaches to a recently developed PRS of 269 established prostate cancer risk variants from multi-ancestry GWAS and fine-mapping studies (PRS 269 ). GW-PRS models were trained using a large and diverse prostate cancer GWAS of 107,247 cases and 127,006 controls used to develop the multi-ancestry PRS 269 . Resulting models were independently tested in 1,586 cases and 1,047 controls of African ancestry from the California/Uganda Study and 8,046 cases and 191,825 controls of European ancestry from the UK Biobank and further validated in 13,643 cases and 210,214 controls of European ancestry and 6,353 cases and 53,362 controls of African ancestry from the Million Veteran Program. In the testing data, the best performing GW-PRS approach had AUCs of 0.656 (95% CI=0.635-0.677) in African and 0.844 (95% CI=0.840-0.848) in European ancestry men and corresponding prostate cancer OR of 1.83 (95% CI=1.67-2.00) and 2.19 (95% CI=2.14-2.25), respectively, for each SD unit increase in the GW-PRS. However, compared to the GW-PRS, in African and European ancestry men, the PRS 269 had larger or similar AUCs (AUC=0.679, 95% CI=0.659-0.700 and AUC=0.845, 95% CI=0.841-0.849, respectively) and comparable prostate cancer OR (OR=2.05, 95% CI=1.87-2.26 and OR=2.21, 95% CI=2.16-2.26, respectively). Findings were similar in the validation data. This investigation suggests that current GW-PRS approaches may not improve the ability to predict prostate cancer risk compared to the multi-ancestry PRS 269 constructed with fine-mapping.

Development and testing of a polygenic risk score for breast cancer aggressiveness

Aggressive breast cancers portend a poor prognosis, but current polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for breast cancer do not reliably predict aggressive cancers. Aggressiveness can be effectively recapitulated using tumor gene expression profiling. Thus, we sought to develop a PRS for the risk of recurrence score weighted on proliferation (ROR-P), an established prognostic signature. Using 2363 breast cancers with tumor gene expression data and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes, we examined the associations between ROR-P and known breast cancer susceptibility SNPs using linear regression models. We constructed PRSs based on varying p-value thresholds and selected the optimal PRS based on model r2 in 5-fold cross-validation. We then used Cox proportional hazards regression to test the ROR-P PRS's association with breast cancer-specific survival in two independent cohorts totaling 10,196 breast cancers and 785 events. In meta-analysis of these cohorts, higher ROR-P PRS was associated with worse survival, HR per SD = 1.13 (95% CI 1.06-1.21, p = 4.0 × 10-4). The ROR-P PRS had a similar magnitude of effect on survival as a comparator PRS for estrogen receptor (ER)-negative versus positive cancer risk (PRSER-/ER+). Furthermore, its effect was minimally attenuated when adjusted for PRSER-/ER+, suggesting that the ROR-P PRS provides additional prognostic information beyond ER status. In summary, we used integrated analysis of germline SNP and tumor gene expression data to construct a PRS associated with aggressive tumor biology and worse survival. These findings could potentially enhance risk stratification for breast cancer screening and prevention.

Association of screening status, polygenic risk score and environmental risk factors with colorectal cancer incidence and mortality risks

Whether screening can attenuate the influence of genetic risk and environmental risk factors for colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality risk remains unknown. Our study is to investigate the association of the screening history, genetic risk and environmental risk factors with CRC incidence and mortality risks using UK Biobank data. Screening history was associated with lower CRC incidence (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.63, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.58-0.69) and mortality risk (HR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.49-0.63). Compared to the HRs of participants with a low genetic risk, low environmental risk and no screening history, the HRs of participants with a high genetic risk, high environmental risk and no screening history were 3.42 (95% CI: 2.76-4.24) for CRC incidence and 3.36 (95% CI: 2.48-4.56) for CRC mortality. In contrast, the HRs of participants with a high genetic risk and no screening history, but a low environmental risk, were 1.92 (95% CI: 1.55-2.36) for CRC incidence and 1.88 (95% CI: 1.39-2.53) for CRC mortality. Furthermore, the HRs of participants with a high genetic risk and a low environmental risk, but a screening history were 1.62 (95% CI: 1.15-2.28) for CRC incidence and 1.77 (95% CI: 1.08-2.89) for CRC mortality. Participants benefited more substantially from screenings for CRC mortality than for CRC incidence risk. A higher environmental risk was associated with higher risk of CRC incidence and mortality within each category of genetic risk. These findings emphasize the importance of CRC screening and identifying environmental factors to reduce CRC incidence and mortality risks.

Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment and Precision Approaches to Screening: Brave New World or Worlds Apart?

Current colorectal cancer (CRC) screening recommendations take a "one-size-fits-all" approach using age as the major criterion to initiate screening. Precision screening that incorporates factors beyond age to risk stratify individuals could improve on current approaches and optimally use available resources with benefits for patients, providers, and health care systems. Prediction models could identify high-risk groups who would benefit from more intensive screening, while low-risk groups could be recommended less intensive screening incorporating noninvasive screening modalities. In addition to age, prediction models incorporate well-established risk factors such as genetics (eg, family CRC history, germline, and polygenic risk scores), lifestyle (eg, smoking, alcohol, diet, and physical inactivity), sex, and race and ethnicity among others. Although several risk prediction models have been validated, few have been systematically studied for risk-adapted population CRC screening. In order to envisage clinical implementation of precision screening in the future, it will be critical to develop reliable and accurate prediction models that apply to all individuals in a population; prospectively study risk-adapted CRC screening on the population level; garner acceptance from patients and providers; and assess feasibility, resources, cost, and cost-effectiveness of these new paradigms. This review evaluates the current state of risk prediction modeling and provides a roadmap for future implementation of precision CRC screening.

Clinically relevant combined effect of polygenic background, rare pathogenic germline variants, and family history on colorectal cancer incidence

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Summarised in polygenic risk scores (PRS), the effect of common, low penetrant genetic variants associated with colorectal cancer (CRC), can be used for risk stratification.

METHODS

To assess the combined impact of the PRS and other main factors on CRC risk, 163,516 individuals from the UK Biobank were stratified as follows: 1. carriers status for germline pathogenic variants (PV) in CRC susceptibility genes (APC, MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, PMS2), 2. low (< 20%), intermediate (20-80%), or high PRS (> 80%), and 3. family history (FH) of CRC. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were applied to compare odds ratios and to compute the lifetime incidence, respectively.

RESULTS

Depending on the PRS, the CRC lifetime incidence for non-carriers ranges between 6 and 22%, compared to 40% and 74% for carriers. A suspicious FH is associated with a further increase of the cumulative incidence reaching 26% for non-carriers and 98% for carriers. In non-carriers without FH, but high PRS, the CRC risk is doubled, whereas a low PRS even in the context of a FH results in a decreased risk. The full model including PRS, carrier status, and FH improved the area under the curve in risk prediction (0.704).

CONCLUSION

The findings demonstrate that CRC risks are strongly influenced by the PRS for both a sporadic and monogenic background. FH, PV, and common variants complementary contribute to CRC risk. The implementation of PRS in routine care will likely improve personalized risk stratification, which will in turn guide tailored preventive surveillance strategies in high, intermediate, and low risk groups.

Delphi Initiative for Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer (DIRECt) International Management Guidelines

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with early-onset colorectal cancer (eoCRC) are managed according to guidelines that are not age-specific. A multidisciplinary international group (DIRECt), composed of 69 experts, was convened to develop the first evidence-based consensus recommendations for eoCRC.

METHODS

After reviewing the published literature, a Delphi methodology was used to draft and respond to clinically relevant questions. Each statement underwent 3 rounds of voting and reached a consensus level of agreement of ≥80%.

RESULTS

The DIRECt group produced 31 statements in 7 areas of interest: diagnosis, risk factors, genetics, pathology-oncology, endoscopy, therapy, and supportive care. There was strong consensus that all individuals younger than 50 should undergo CRC risk stratification and prompt symptom assessment. All newly diagnosed eoCRC patients should receive germline genetic testing, ideally before surgery. On the basis of current evidence, endoscopic, surgical, and oncologic treatment of eoCRC should not differ from later-onset CRC, except for individuals with pathogenic or likely pathogenic germline variants. The evidence on chemotherapy is not sufficient to recommend changes to established therapeutic protocols. Fertility preservation and sexual health are important to address in eoCRC survivors. The DIRECt group highlighted areas with knowledge gaps that should be prioritized in future research efforts, including age at first screening for the general population, use of fecal immunochemical tests, chemotherapy, endoscopic therapy, and post-treatment surveillance for eoCRC patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The DIRECt group produced the first consensus recommendations on eoCRC. All statements should be considered together with the accompanying comments and literature reviews. We highlighted areas where research should be prioritized. These guidelines represent a useful tool for clinicians caring for patients with eoCRC.

Comparison of Colonoscopy, Fecal Immunochemical Test, and Risk-Adapted Approach in a Colorectal Cancer Screening Trial (TARGET-C)

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The screening yield and related cost of a risk-adapted screening approach compared with established screening strategies in population-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening are not clear.

METHODS

We randomly allocated 19,373 participants into 1 of the 3 screening arms in a 1:2:2 ratio: (1) one-time colonoscopy (n = 3883); (2) annual fecal immunochemical test (FIT) (n = 7793); (3) annual risk-adapted screening (n = 7697), in which, based on the risk-stratification score, high-risk participants were referred for colonoscopy and low-risk ones were referred for FIT. Three consecutive screening rounds were conducted for both the FIT and the risk-adapted screening arms. Follow-up to trace the health outcome for all the participants was conducted over the 3-year study period. The detection rate of advanced colorectal neoplasia (CRC and advanced precancerous lesions) was the main outcome. The trial was registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (number: ChiCTR1800015506).

RESULTS

In the colonoscopy, FIT, and risk-adapted screening arms over 3 screening rounds, the participation rates were 42.4%, 99.3%, and 89.2%, respectively; the detection rates for advanced neoplasm (intention-to-treat analysis) were 2.76%, 2.17%, and 2.35%, respectively, with an odds ratio (OR)colonoscopy vs FIT of 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.99-1.63; P = .056), an ORcolonoscopy vsrisk-adapted screening of 1.17 (95% CI, 0.91-1.49; P = .218), and an ORrisk-adapted screeningvs FIT of 1.09 (95% CI, 0.88-1.35; P = .438); the numbers of colonoscopies needed to detect 1 advanced neoplasm were 15.4, 7.8, and 10.2, respectively; the costs for detecting 1 advanced neoplasm from a government perspective using package payment format were 6928 Chinese Yuan (CNY) ($1004), 5821 CNY ($844), and 6694 CNY ($970), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk-adapted approach is a feasible and cost-favorable strategy for population-based CRC screening and therefore could complement the well-established one-time colonoscopy and annual repeated FIT screening strategies. (Chinese Clinical Trial Registry; ChiCTR1800015506).