A review of the combined effects of climate change and other local human stressors on the marine environment

BVOC emissions from Posidonia oceanica, the most abundant Mediterranean seagrass species

Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOCs) are important precursors of tropospheric atmospheric pollutants such as ozone and secondary organic aerosols. Thus, it is crucial to characterize BVOCs sources at regional and global scales. Marine environments, especially benthic ecosystems, are still overlooked although they can produce a wide range of BVOCs. In this study, BVOCs emissions from Posidonia oceanica, the main seagrass species in the Mediterranean Sea, were characterised over several days using dynamic enclosure systems. A total of 105 different compounds were detected through PTR-ToF-MS and GC-MS analyses (after checking compounds correspondence between both analyses) and included terpenoids (isoprene), sulfur- (dimethyl sulfide (DMS)), halogenenated- (chloromethane), and oxygenated compounds (methanol, acetone). High BVOCs emissions were measured (up to 10 and 4 μg.gDW-1.h-1 for DMS and acetone, respectively), in the same ranges reported for terrestrial plant species. Most BVOCs followed diurnal cycles with higher emissions during the day compared to night, although nocturnal emissions were also detected. Surprisingly, DMS emissions showed an opposite pattern with higher emissions at night. Uptakes were recorded for formic acid all through the day, at night for acetonitrile and only punctually for most other BVOCs. Our results strongly suggest that P. oceanica meadows are important contributors to the regional BVOCs budget in the Mediterranean basin.

How resilient are coastal marine soft-bottom communities with high diversity?

Based on the large amount of data accumulated over 50 years on soft-bottom communities mainly from the English Channel and the Mediterranean Sea, this study analyses the relationship between diversity (Taxonomic Richness TR, Shannon diversity H', and Pielou evenness J') and abundance of taxa on diverse shallow benthic habitats ranging from muddy sand to gravel. Only samples with H' > 4.0 are selected for this analysis, making up a total of 379 data points. Communities with HDLA (High Diversity and Low Abundance) are common, while some samples show HDHA (High Diversity and High Abundance). Well-known significant correlations are found between H', J', TR and abundance. Moreover, temporal and spatial monitoring of oil spills, urban and industrial outfalls, harbour sediment dumping and salmon aquaculture tend to illustrate the high resilience of soft-bottom benthic communities after the cessation of a disturbance or with increasing distance from the source. Conversely, low resistance of benthic communities after an oil spill is linked to the abundance of sensitive species to hydrocarbons before the sediment pollution.

Nonlinear dynamics of ecosystem productivity and its driving mechanisms in arid regions: A case study of Ebinur Lake Basin

Arid zone ecosystems exhibit significant sensitivity to climate change and human activities, often demonstrating pronounced nonlinear characteristics in their response processes. This study focuses on the typical inland basin of the Ebinur Lake Basin in the arid region of northwest China. Utilizing long-term remote sensing and meteorological data from 1982 to 2018, combined with an improved BFAST algorithm, the XGBoost-SHAP analytical framework, and Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), we systematically investigated the nonlinear variation characteristics of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and its underlying driving mechanisms. The results reveal that tipping points in GPP changes were detected in 99.78 % of the Ebinur Lake Basin, with the "Negative Reversal" type (initially increasing and then decreasing) being the most prevalent, accounting for 35.91 % of the cases. The majority of GPP tipping points occurred between 1998 and 2002, with the highest frequency observed in 1998 (10.54 %). Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was identified as the primary factor controlling GPP changes in the Ebinur Lake Basin. However, in areas where the ecosystem exhibited a recovery trend, temperature surpassed VPD as the dominant driving factor, indicating that improved temperature conditions are critical for productivity restoration. These findings enhance our understanding of the nonlinear characteristics and underlying mechanisms of arid zone ecosystems, providing a scientific basis for adaptive ecosystem management in the region.

Fatty acid response of calcifying benthic Antarctic species to ocean acidification and warming

Ocean acidification (OA) and ocean warming (OW) are likely to alter the biochemical composition of certain organisms as a physiological response to these changing environmental conditions. Given the importance of fatty acids (FA) in energy transfer within marine food webs, this two-month laboratory study examines the response of two calcifying species from Potter Cove (Antarctica) - the bivalve Aequiyoldia eightsii and the coral Malacobelemnon daytoni - to predicted OA and OW, focusing on their FA profiles. Neither species showed significant changes compared to the control group in the composition of FA ratios associated with immune function and cell membrane fluidity in response to either OA or OW. Additionally, the FA composition related to inflammatory responses remained largely unaffected by the stressors, although the 20:5n-3 FA was negatively impacted in A. eightsii under high-temperature conditions. Overall, the FA composition in these species appears robust to near-future environmental changes.

Planning conservation priority areas for marine mammals accounting for human impact, climate change and multidimensionality of biodiversity

Because of the crucial ecological status of marine mammals, identifying priority areas for these species could significantly contribute to achieving the 30 % ocean protection target set by the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. However, comprehensive conservation priorities requires considering multiple biodiversity dimensions and the impacts of climate change and human activities, which are poorly considered. In this study, we first investigated the distribution patterns of species, functional, and phylogenetic diversity of marine mammals and analyzed their relationship with cumulative anthropogenic impacts and climate change. We then developed conservation plans in which conservation targets of each species were allocated according to their distinctiveness indices, and protection costs were set as cumulative anthropogenic impacts and future climate velocity. The results indicate that incorporating extinction probability into the calculation of distinctiveness indices affects species uniqueness rankings, highlighting the need to consider species threat levels in future conservation efforts. Negative correlations were found for marine mammal diversity with cumulative anthropogenic impacts and climate change, implying that these factors may have already influenced the biodiversity distribution. The results suggest that existing MPAs are exposed to high levels of cumulative human impacts and climate velocity, necessitating further assessment of their effectiveness. In contrast, the low-regret MPAs identified in this study face significantly lower cumulative human impacts and future climate velocity, presenting valuable opportunities for marine mammal conservation.

A comprehensive assessment of non-indigenous species requires the combination of multi-marker eDNA metabarcoding with classical taxonomic identification

In marine environment, non-indigenous species (NIS) can alter natural habitats and cause biodiversity loss with important consequences for ecosystems and socio-economic activities. With more than 1000 NIS introduced over the last century, the Mediterranean Sea is one of the most threatened regions worldwide, requiring an early identification of newly entered alien species for a proper environmental management. Here, we carried out environmental-DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding analyses, using multiple molecular markers (i.e., 18S rRNA, COI, and rbcL) and different genetic databases (i.e., NCBI, PR2, SILVA, MIDORI2, MGZDB, and BOLD), on seawater and sediment samples collected on a seasonal basis in three Mediterranean ports located in the North Adriatic, Ionian and Tyrrhenian Sea to identify marine species, and particularly NIS. The use of the multi-marker eDNA metabarcoding allowed the identification of a higher number of species compared to the morphological analyses (1484 vs. 752 species), with a minor portion of species shared by both approaches. Overall, only 4 NIS were consistently identified by both morphological and molecular approaches, whereas 27 and 17 NIS were exclusively detected by using eDNA metabarcoding and classical taxonomic analyses, respectively. The eDNA metabarcoding allowed also identifying the genetic signatures of 5 NIS never reported in the Italian waters. We conclude that eDNA metabarcoding can represent a highly sensitive tool for the early identification of NIS, but a comprehensive census of the NIS requires the combination of molecular and morphological approaches.

Climate mediates the predictability of threats to marine biodiversity

Anthropogenic climate change is driving rapid changes in marine ecosystems across the global ocean. The spatiotemporal footprints of other anthropogenic threats, such as infrastructure development, shipping, and fisheries, will also inevitably shift under climate change, but we find that these shifts are not yet accounted for in most projections of climate futures in marine systems. We summarise what is known about threat-shifting in response to climate change, and identify sources of predictability that have implications for ecological forecasting. We recommend that, where possible, the dynamics of anthropogenic threats are accounted for in nowcasts, forecasts, and projections designed for spatial management and conservation planning, and highlight key themes for future research into threat dynamics in a changing ocean.

Virgulinella fragilis in the North Adriatic Coastal Sediments: A New Non-Indigenous Benthic Foraminiferal Taxon?

The Mediterranean Sea is considered a hotspot for bioinvaders. Nonetheless, information on non-indigenous benthic foraminifera is still fragmented. This study documents for the first time the presence along the northwestern Adriatic coast of the non-indigenous benthic foraminifera species Virgulinella fragilis, Grindell and Collen (1976). Due to the low abundance recorded in the study area, the presence of this species may represent an early colonization phase. We discuss the temporal and spatial patterns of V. fragilis arrival in the Mediterranean and Adriatic Seas, and we hypothesize stowaway transport (via ship fouling or ballast water) as the main introduction pathway. Morphological test analyses suggest that V. fragilis prefers a low oxygen content, consistent with the ecological requirements reported for this taxon in the literature. The application of Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling indicates that the key factor influencing the presence of V. fragilis in the Mediterranean basin is the bacterial concentration expressed as NO3. Projections under future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5) point to a decline of habitat suitability conditions, making widespread invasion unlikely in the Mediterranean. We emphasize the importance of continuous biomonitoring for early detection of alien species, improving our understanding of invasion dynamics and enabling prompt conservation actions, especially in regions impacted by anthropogenic activities.

Challenges in expert ratings of marine habitat and species sensitivity to anthropogenic pressures

Expert knowledge can help fill gaps in quantitative empirical information about complex ecological phenomena. We examined the level of agreement between 21 studies that collected expert ratings of the sensitivity of species and habitats to human activities and their pressures as input data for mapping the human impact on marine ecosystems. Our analyses revealed broad agreement about which human activities and pressures many species and habitats are sensitive to. These agreements reflect a common view of the main threats to ocean ecosystems. In contrast, scores provided by individual experts varied both within and across studies. Sensitivity scores collected with the same method for different regions were often more similar than scores collected for the same region but with different methods. These results highlight how inconsistencies in the design of many expert surveys can lead to variable outcomes. It is important to employ more consistent and theoretically grounded methods and protocols when eliciting expert ratings of species' sensitivity to pressures, to ensure compatibility across studies and maintain rigour in analyses supporting effective ocean management.

Determining physiological responses of mussels (Mytilus edulis) to hypoxia by combining multiple sensor techniques

Intertidal bivalves survive longer without oxygen when aerially exposed during low tide than when submerged in hypoxic water. To understand this, we combined three biosensors to continuously monitor responses of individual blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) to aerial exposure in simulated low-tide conditions and during aqueous hypoxia. A valve sensor, heart rate monitor, and an in-shell oxygen microsensor simultaneously recorded behavioural and physiological responses. During aerial exposure, which often occurs in the intertidal, all individuals immediately closed their valves, rapidly depleted in-shell oxygen, and decreased their heart rate. This suggested a shift to anaerobic metabolism and reduced activity as mechanisms to save energy and survive in-shell anoxia during 'low-tide' conditions. At the onset of exposure to hypoxic (<1 mg O2/L) water, however, all mussels fully opened their valves, with 75% of the individuals increasing valve activity for at least 1 hour (the duration of our measurements), possibly in an attempt to collect more oxygen by increasing filtration activity. Only 25% of the mussels closed their valves after about 40 minutes of aqueous hypoxia, shifting to the energy efficient strategy used during aerial exposure. As the valves of most individuals remained open during hypoxia, a mussel does not appear to need to close its valve to begin the transition to anaerobic metabolism. Interindividual variation in responses was much lower after exposure to air compared to aqueous hypoxia when the heart rate of most mussels either steadily declined or became highly erratic. Differences in energy expenditure during these different types of exposures likely explains why most mussels, at least from the population we studied, can survive longer during exposure to air compared to aqueous hypoxia, a situation that could occur under situations of elevated temperature in waters with high nutrient loads.

Temperature Drives Seagrass Recovery Across the Western North Atlantic

Climate-driven shifts in herbivores, temperature, and nutrient runoff threaten coastal ecosystem resilience. However, ecological resilience, particularly for foundation species, remains poorly understood due to the scarcity of field experiments conducted across appropriate spatial and temporal scales that investigate multiple stressors. This study evaluates the resilience of a widespread tropical marine plant (turtlegrass) to disturbances across its geographic range and examines how environmental gradients in (a)biotic factors influence recovery. We assessed turtlegrass resilience by following recovery rates for a year after a simulated pulse disturbance (complete above- and belowground biomass removal). Contrary to studies in temperate areas, higher temperature generally enhanced seagrass recovery. While nutrients had minimal individual effects, they reduced aboveground recovery when combined with high levels of herbivore grazing (meso and megaherbivore). Belowground recovery was also affected by combined high levels of nutrients and grazing (megaherbivores only). Light availability had minimal effects. Our results suggest that the resilience of some tropical species, particularly in cooler subtropical waters, may initially benefit from warming. However, continuing shifts in nutrient supply and changes in grazing pressure may ultimately serve to compromise seagrass recovery.

The effects of imidacloprid and polyester microfibers on the larval development of the endangered sunflower star

Sea star wasting syndrome has affected numerous species of sea star, with populations of Pycnopodia helianthoides (Brandt, 1835) left most at risk. As their populations are struggling to recover, it is important to gain a better understanding of the impacts that the multiple stressors in their habitats can have on their populations. Contaminant stressors in particular are of increasing importance, because aquatic organisms can be exposed to a dynamic range of contaminants from nearby anthropogenic activity that may affect their future recovery efforts. This study is the first to quantify the effects of contaminant stressors on the larvae of P. helianthoides. We exposed P. helianthoides larvae to the neonicotinoid insecticide imidacloprid and polyester microfibers, both individually and in combination, at environmentally relevant concentrations (10 ng/L and 25 fibers/L, respectively) to measure the effects of these contaminants on their early life stages. Imidacloprid exposure resulted in stomach malformation in 10% of larvae and increased mortality during early development (p < 0.001), and all treatments resulted in increased larval lengths relative to controls (p < 0.001). During settlement, imidacloprid resulted in more rapid settlement responses than in the controls (p < 0.01). These findings highlight the need for further research investigating the effects of contaminant stressors to endangered organisms during reintroduction as well as a more comprehensive understanding of the effects of pesticides to nontarget organisms.

Ecological assessment of marine systems: How to conclude? Method and application to Western Mediterranean

The ecosystem approach is generally considered as the best way to manage human activities impacting the marine environment. Nevertheless, more than 20 years after the emergence of this new paradigm, whereas ecosystem-based management is theoretically implemented through an essentially systemic approach, in practice, it appears that the application of standards and criteria and the use of indicators lead to a predominance of analytical approaches and to reporting formats that are inappropriate for defining action programmes. This paper proposes a new methodological framework to produce, in a synthetic form, integrated ecosystem assessments that go beyond the juxtaposition of sectoral analyses. Its guiding principle is to use the general knowledge of the marine environment (understanding of system dynamics and interactions within the system through a systemic approach) to put into perspective the results obtained through criteria and methodological standards (understanding the state of ecological components and the pressures affecting them through analytical approaches). The new methodological framework includes the identification of appropriate typologies for activities and pressures, as well as for ecological components. An essential point is to group the ecological components within the following compartments: pelagic habitats and food webs; benthic habitats; areas at the land-sea interface; protected species; and commercial species. On each of these compartments, the application of a selection of descriptors is possible. The result is an optimization of analyses in comparison with the indiscriminate use of descriptors on each of the ecological components considered separately. A case study is presented on the French Western Mediterranean.

How will the cumulative effects of fishing and climate change affect the health and resilience of the Celtic Sea ecosystem?

Ecosystems are subject to increasing anthropogenic pressures worldwide. Assessing cumulative effects of multiple pressures and their impacts on recovery processes is a daunting scientific and technical challenge due to systems' complexity. However, this is of paramount importance in the context of ecosystem-based management of natural systems. Our study provides major insights into the assessment of cumulative effects on Northeast Atlantic ecosystems. Using an Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) tropho-dynamic model for the Celtic Sea ecosystem including 53 functional groups, we (1) assess individual and cumulative effects of fishing and climate change and (2) explore the impact of fishing intensity and climate change on ecosystem resilience. Various levels of increasing fishing intensities are simulated over the whole 21st century, by forcing the EwE model with time series of sea temperature, primary production and secondary producer's biomass from the regional POLCOMS-ERSEM climate model, under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Cumulative impacts on the ecosystem's health and its capacity to recover after the cessation of fishing activities were assessed through a set of 45 indicators (biomass-based, diversity, trait-based and habitat-based indicators), using a theoretical non-fishing and climate-constant scenario as a reference. Our results reveal climate change impacts on Boreal, pelagic species and on ecosystem stability. Fishing preferentially removes apex predators and is predicted to increase the likelihood of a regime shift by decreasing ecosystems' capacity to recover. Predicted cumulative effects are mainly additive and antagonistic but synergies are observed for high fishing effort levels, and finally climate change had minor impacts on ecosystem recovery to fishing. Fishing is shown to be the main driver of cumulative impacts and of ecosystem resilience over the next decades. Our results suggest that slight reduction in fishing effort is enough to compensate the impact of climate change. Future research should then be directed towards exploring and evaluating ecosystem-based climate-adaptive fisheries management strategies.

Nonlinear spatiotemporal variability of gross primary production in China's terrestrial ecosystems under water energy constraints

Gross primary production (GPP) plays a crucial role in carbon cycling and ecosystem productivity, yet its variability is significantly influenced by climatic factors. This study investigates the spatiotemporal variability of GPP in China's terrestrial ecosystems, with a focus on water and energy limitations. It aims to clarify the relationship between GPP and climatic variables across different regimes. The results reveal nonlinear turning points in more than half of the country's regions, most turning points occurred in the 1980s and 2000s. Water-related factors predominantly influenced GPP changes, while energy limitations contributed to GPP decline in certain areas. Over the past decade, ecological restoration efforts focused on vegetation greening have enhanced habitat quality in China. However, future climate warming is projected to shift more regions into energy-limited conditions, leading to negative GPP sensitivity to temperature and SSRD, and potentially accelerating GPP degradation. These findings underscore the need for targeted management strategies in energy-limited regions to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on ecosystem productivity. This study provides critical insights into the interplay between climatic factors and GPP dynamics, offering a valuable framework for future research and policy development aimed at sustaining ecosystem services under changing climatic conditions.

Positive species interactions structure rhodolith bed communities at a global scale

Rhodolith beds are diverse and globally distributed habitats. Nonetheless, the role of rhodoliths in structuring the associated species community through a hierarchy of positive interactions is yet to be recognised. In this review, we provide evidence that rhodoliths can function as foundation species of multi-level facilitation cascades and, hence, are fundamental for the persistence of hierarchically structured communities within coastal oceans. Rhodoliths generate facilitation cascades by buffering physical stress, reducing consumer pressure and enhancing resource availability. Due to large variations in their shape, size and density, a single rhodolith bed can support multiple taxonomically distant and architecturally distinct habitat-forming species, such as primary producers, sponges or bivalves, thus encompassing a broad range of functional traits and providing a wealth of secondary microhabitat and food resources. In addition, rhodoliths are often mobile, and thus can redistribute associated species, potentially expanding the distribution of species with short-distance dispersal abilities. Key knowledge gaps we have identified include: the experimental assessment of the role of rhodoliths as basal facilitators; the length and temporal stability of facilitation cascades; variations in species interactions within cascades across environmental gradients; and the role of rhodolith beds as climate refugia. Addressing these research priorities will allow the development of evidence-based policy decisions and elevate rhodolith beds within marine conservation strategies.

Different impact of a severe storm on two gorgonian species

Extreme events influence ecosystem dynamics, but their effects on coastal marine habitats are often poorly perceived compared to their terrestrial counterparts. The detailed study of changes in benthic communities related to these phenomena is becoming urgent, due to the increasing intensity and frequency of hurricanes recorded in recent decades. Slow-growing benthic sessile organisms are particularly vulnerable to mechanical impacts, especially the large long-lived species with branched morphology that structure Mediterranean coralligenous assemblages. The present study evaluates the effects of the severe storm occurred in October 2018, and classified as one of most violent that ever struck north-western Mediterranean coasts, on two gorgonian species, the scleralcyonacean Corallium rubrum (with a solid carbonate axial skeleton) and the malacalcyonacean Paramuricea clavata (with a flexible proteinaceous axis). Comparing the cover and density of the two species before and after the severe storm, C. rubrum showed a decrease of more than 50% in one surveyed site. In contrast, P. clavata population did not show a decrease, and exhibited the highest density and cover in the same site, thanks to the high hydrodynamic condition which are favourable for this species. In this study, cover evaluation proved to be more time-efficient than counting colonies, and reduced the risk of errors. The present example highlighted the importance of continuous monitoring, including the assessment of the biological and ecological traits of the species, to provide a complete picture of their populations for conservation planning.

Experimental ingestion of microplastics in three common Antarctic benthic species

Microplastics (MP) have spread to every corner of the globe, reaching remote areas like Antarctica. Recent studies detected MP in marine environments, including biota. Benthic organisms suffer negative effects upon MP ingestion, leading to impacts on their populations. To address the current knowledge gap on how Antarctic benthic invertebrates interact with MP, we conducted an experiment exposing a bivalve (Aequiyoldia eightsii) and two ascidians (Cnemidocarpa verrucosa and Molgula pedunculata) to polyethylene microbeads (mb). Specimens of each species were exposed for 48 h to two different concentrations of microbeads, a low dose (100 mb/l) and a high dose (1000 mb/l), with the same proportion of four different microbead size fractions (Fine (10-20 μm), Small (45-53 μm), Medium (106-125 μm), and Large (850-1000 μm)). After exposure, all three species had ingested microbeads. Significant differences between doses were observed in A. eightsii and C. verrucosa but not in M. pedunculata. Both ascidians ingested microbeads of all size fractions, whereas the bivalve did not ingest the largest microbeads. No significant differences were found between species in the number nor sizes of microbeads ingested. Minor variations between taxa may be attributed to the specific biology and anatomy of each species. Our study highlights the need for a deeper understanding of Antarctic benthic ecosystems, suggesting that the interaction with MP is species-specific. We believe that this study provides a baseline for assessing MP pollution in Antarctic benthic invertebrates and will help to inform policy-makers in protecting and preserving Antarctic marine ecosystems from MP pollution.

Circumpolar and Regional Seascape Drivers of Genomic Variation in a Southern Ocean Octopus

Understanding how ecological, environmental and geographic features influence population genetic patterns provides crucial insights into a species' evolutionary history, as well as their vulnerability or resilience under climate change. In the Southern Ocean, population genetic variation is influenced across multiple spatial scales ranging from circum-Antarctic, which encompasses the entire continent, to regional, with varying levels of geographic separation. However, comprehensive analyses testing the relative importance of different environmental and geographic variables on genomic variation across these scales are generally lacking in the Southern Ocean. Here, we examine genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms of the Southern Ocean octopus Pareledone turqueti across the Scotia Sea and the Antarctic continental shelf, at depths between 102 and 1342 m, throughout most of this species' range. The circumpolar distribution of P. turqueti is biogeographically structured with a clear signature of isolation-by-geographical distance, but with long-distance genetic connectivity also detected between East and West Antarctica. Genomic variation of P. turqueti was also associated with bottom water temperature at a circumpolar scale, driven by a genotype-temperature association with the warmer sub-Antarctic Shag Rocks and South Georgia. Within the Scotia Sea, geographic distance, oxygen and fine-scale isolation-by-water depth were apparent drivers of genomic variation at regional scales. Putative positive selection of haemocyanin (oxygen transport protein), calcium ion transport and genes linked to RNA modification, detected within the Scotia Sea, suggest physiological adaptation to the regional sharp temperature gradient (~0-+2°C). Overall, we identified seascape drivers of genomic variation in the Southern Ocean at circumpolar and regional scales in P. turqueti and contextualised the role of environmental adaptations in the Southern Ocean.

Assessing climatic conditions and biotic interactions shaping the success of Cystoseira foeniculacea early-life stages

Early-life stages of canopy-forming macroalgae are critical for the maintenance of natural populations and the success of restoration actions. Unfortunately, the abiotic conditions and biotic interactions shaping the success of these stages have received less attention than the interactions shaping the success of adults. Here, we combined field and mesocosm experiments to explore the effects of temperature, herbivory, and canopy presence on the development of early-life stages of the brown seaweed Cystoseira foeniculacea. We assessed these effects by examining changes in recruit density and size. After recruiting zygotes under laboratory conditions, we conducted one laboratory and three field experiments. In the first field experiment, the density of recruits decreased over time in all rockpools and was negatively affected by rising temperatures and turf cover. Additionally, a marine heatwave (MHW; 11 days >25°C) was recorded in the donor pools, producing strong decay in the density of transplanted recruits and a significant reduction of the mature canopy. The second field experiment tested the survival of recruits based on their positioning within the canopy. We observed a higher density of recruits when placed at the edge or outside the canopy compared to recruits placed under the canopy. In the third field experiment, an herbivory-exclusion experiment, we show how density of recruits decreased in less than 48 h in noncaged treatments. In the laboratory, we conducted a thermotolerance experiment under controlled conditions, exposing the recruits to 19, 22, 25, 28, and 31°C for 7 weeks to assess thermal impacts on their survival and growth. Temperatures above the 25°C threshold reduced the density and size of the recruits. This study sheds light on the performance of the early-life stages of a Cystoseira spp. in Macaronesia, showing a low survival ratio against the current pressures even in the context of the potential refuge provided by the intertidal rockpools.

Signals of loss, part two: A phytal community collapsing under extreme-climate conditions on a Mediterranean vermetid reef

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of transient extreme climate events that can be catastrophic for ecological communities. We studied the 2014-2022 period along the northern coasts of Sicily (Western Mediterranean Sea), evaluating the ecological impacts on three macroalgae (Ericaria amentacea, Jania rubens, and Padina pavonica) and one complex of species (Laurencia complex) inhabiting the vermetid bioconstructions. All climatological metrics indicate that desiccation conditions occurred in the intertidal zones for many consecutive days during 2022, compared to previous years. These extreme conditions have led to a drastic algal biomass reduction, especially for E. amentacea, P. pavonica, and Laurencia complex species. Consistently, the analysis of mollusc communities associated with macroalgae highlighted a sharp collapse, with a general inverse relationship between community composition and structure versus air temperature values. This worrying evidence indicates that anomalous desiccation conditions could have serious short-term impacts on the fragile and neglected vermetid ecosystem.

Temporal and spatial variation patterns of chlorophyll a in marine ranching under global interannual events

Marine ecosystems are facing numerous environmental challenges due to global climate change. In response to these challenges, the establishment and growth of marine ranching has emerged as a pivotal solution. Chlorophyll a concentration (Chla) is recognized as a valuable indicator for the ecological assessment of marine ranching. This study focused on the spatiotemporal distribution of Chla and its response to environmental factors according to the dataset in the marine ranching area of Haizhou Bay (Lianyungang, Jiangsu, China) from 2003 to 2022. The results showed that Chla had a significant cycle of summer > spring > autumn and was distributed evenly in the central area of the marine ranching. During interannual changes, Chla patches were centered in the central region during 2014, 2015, and 2016. The Chla patches predominantly focused on the eastern area in 2018-2019, shifting to the western area in 2020-2021. The generalized additive model (GAM) indicated that salinity, depth, temperature, biological oxygen demand (BOD5) and SiO3--Si were the main environmental factors affecting Chla during spring, summer and autumn. However, during El Niño events, salinity, depth, temperature, BOD5 and transparency became the main environmental factors. We concluded that salinity, depth and temperature consistently played a crucial role in determining Chla under various climate conditions, and SiO3--Si and transparency will no longer be an environmental factor limiting Chla. In addition, The effect of interannual variability on upwelling and vertical mixing of water layers may potentially alter the spatial distribution pattern of Chla. These findings can offer ideas into predicting the variation of Chla in marine ranching under global interannual events in the future. Furthermore, this can contribute to the comprehensive assessment of ecological benefits and the in-depth construction of marine ranching. Ultimately, it can provide essential data and scientific references for offshore ecological environment assessment and ecosystem restoration.

Panel-based assessment of ecosystem condition as a platform for adaptive and knowledge driven management

Ecosystems are subjected to increasing exposure to multiple anthropogenic drivers. This has led to the development of national and international accounting systems describing the condition of ecosystems, often based on few, highly aggregated indicators. Such accounting systems would benefit from a stronger theoretical and empirical underpinning of ecosystem dynamics. Operational tools for ecosystem management require understanding of natural ecosystem dynamics, consideration of uncertainty at all levels, means for quantifying driver-response relationships behind observed and anticipated future trajectories of change, and an efficient and transparent synthesis to inform knowledge-driven decision processes. There is hence a gap between highly aggregated indicator-based accounting tools and the need for explicit understanding and assessment of the links between multiple drivers and ecosystem condition as a foundation for informed and adaptive ecosystem management. We describe here an approach termed PAEC (Panel-based Assessment of Ecosystem Condition) for combining quantitative and qualitative elements of evidence and uncertainties into an integrated assessment of ecosystem condition at spatial scales relevant to management and monitoring. The PAEC protocol is founded on explicit predictions, termed phenomena, of how components of ecosystem structure and functions are changing as a result of acting drivers. The protocol tests these predictions with observations and combines these tests to assess the change in the condition of the ecosystem as a whole. PAEC includes explicit, quantitative or qualitative, assessments of uncertainty at different levels and integrates these in the final assessment. As proofs-of-concept we summarize the application of the PAEC protocol to a marine and a terrestrial ecosystem in Norway.

Temperature dependent sensitivity of the harpacticoid copepod Nitokra spinipes to marine algal toxins

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) - proliferated algae densities, often producing toxins - have increasingly been found in ocean and coastal areas. Recent studies show that rising temperatures contribute to HAB occurrence, but the broader influence of climate change on these outbreaks is less quantified. Of particular concern is the limited research on HAB toxin effects under varying temperatures, especially regarding primary consumers such as copepods, a crucial component of aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, we examined the impact of marine toxins on the harpacticoid copepod Nitokra spinipes, a model organism for marine ecotoxicology, in the context of climate change. We evaluated the toxicity of four purified, commonly occurring algal toxins, at three different temperatures in the laboratory. First, adult females were exposed to a concentration series of toxins at 15, 20, and 25 °C for 48 h. EC50 values of domoic acid ranged from 8.79 ± 1.93 μg L-1 to 25.97 ± 11.96 μg L-1. Nauplii, aged 48-72 h, were exposed at 18, 20 and 22 °C for the same duration. Less sensitive compared to adults, the EC50 of domoic acid in this case varied from 57.26 ± 6.82 μg L-1 to 97.24 ± 6.45 μg L-1. Both results indicated a temperature-dependent EC50. For the chronic toxicity tests, larval development ratio (LDR), brood size and inter-brood time of domoic acid (DA), yessotoxin (YTX), saxitoxin (STX), and microcystin-LR (MC-LR) were examined at 18, 20 and 22 °C. We observed that with increasing temperatures, LDR increased, whereas brood size significantly decreased as DA, YTX or STX concentrations rose. No interaction between temperature and algal toxins was found but a temperature dependent sensitivity of copepods towards DA, YTX and STX was revealed. Our research provides insights into the effects of long-term exposure to algal toxins on marine copepods and the potential impacts of climate warming.

Water temperature affects somatic growth, body condition and oxygen and carbon otolith isotopes of stout whiting (Sillago robusta)

Ocean warming will continue to affect the growth, body condition and geographic distributions of marine fishes and understanding these effects is an urgent challenge for fisheries research and management. Determining how temperature is recorded in fish otolith carbonate, provides an additional chronological tool to investigate thermal histories, preferences and patterns of movement throughout an individual's life history. The influence of three water temperature treatments (22°C, 25°C, and 28°C) on hatchery-reared juvenile stout whiting, Sillago robusta, was tested using a controlled outdoor mesocosm system. Fish were measured for change in length and weight, and body condition was determined using bioelectrical impedance analysis. Sagittal otoliths were analysed for stable oxygen (δ18Ootolith) and carbon (δ13Cotolith) isotopes via isotope ratio mass spectrometry. Whiting kept at 22°C were significantly smaller and had diminished body condition compared to fish in 25°C and 28°C, which did not significantly differ from each other. The δ18O otolith values of stout whiting demonstrated a negative temperature-dependent fractionation relationship which was similar in slope but had a different intercept to the relationships reported for inorganic aragonite and other marine fish species. The δ13C otolith values also showed a negative relationship with water temperature, and the calculated proportion of metabolic carbon M in otoliths differed between fish reared in the coolest (22°C) and warmest (28°C) temperature treatments. Overall, the results suggest that stout whiting may have reached an upper growth threshold between 25°C and 28°C, and that growth and body condition may be optimised during warmer seasons and toward the northerly regions of their distribution. Otolith oxygen thermometry shows promise as a natural tracer of thermal life history, and species-specific fractionation equations should be utilised when possible to prevent errors in temperature reconstructions of wild-caught fish.

Modeling Fertilization Outcome in a Changing World

Marine organisms have complex life histories. For broadcast spawners, successful continuation of the population requires their small gametes to make contact in the water column for sufficiently long periods for fertilization to occur. Anthropogenic climate change has been shown to impact fertilization success in various marine invertebrates, including sea urchins, which are key grazers in their habitats. Gamete performance of both sexes declined when exposed to elevated temperatures and/or pCO2 levels. Examples of reduced performance included slower sperm swimming speed and thinning egg jelly coat. However, such responses to climate change stress were not uniform between individuals. Such variations could serve as the basis for selection. Fertilization kinetics have long been modeled as a particle collision process. Here, we present a modified fertilization kinetics model that incorporates individual variations in performance in a more environmentally relevant regime, and which the performance of groups with different traits can be separately tracked in a mixture. Numerical simulations highlight that fertilization outcomes are influenced by changes in gamete traits as they age in sea water and the presence of competition groups (multiple dams or sires). These results highlight the importance of considering multiple individuals and at multiple time points during in vivo assays. We also applied our model to show that interspecific variation in climate stress vulnerabilities elevates the risk of hybridization. By making a numerical model open-source, we aim to help us better understand the fate of organisms in the face of climate change by enabling the community to consider the mean and variance of the response to capture adaptive potential.

Ocean Planning and Conservation in the Age of Climate Change: A Roundtable Discussion

Over recent years, recognition of the need to develop climate-smart marine spatial planning (MSP) has gained momentum globally. In this roundtable discussion, we use a question-and-answer format to leverage diverse perspectives and voices involved in the study of sustainable MSP and marine conservation under global environmental and social change. We intend this dialogue to serve as a stepping stone toward developing ocean planning initiatives that are sustainable, equitable, and climate-resilient around the globe.

Genetic investigation of population structure in Atlantic chub mackerel, Scomber colias Gmelin, 1789 along the West African coast

Sustainable management of transboundary fish stocks hinges on accurate delineation of population structure. Genetic analysis offers a powerful tool to identify potential subpopulations within a seemingly homogenous stock, facilitating the development of effective, coordinated management strategies across international borders. Along the West African coast, the Atlantic chub mackerel (Scomber colias) is a commercially important and ecologically significant species, yet little is known about its genetic population structure and connectivity. Currently, the stock is managed as a single unit in West African waters despite new research suggesting morphological and adaptive differences. Here, eight microsatellite loci were genotyped on 1,169 individuals distributed across 33 sampling sites from Morocco (27.39°N) to Namibia (22.21°S). Bayesian clustering analysis depicts one homogeneous population across the studied area with null overall differentiation (F ST = 0.0001ns), which suggests panmixia and aligns with the migratory potential of this species. This finding has significant implications for the effective conservation and management of S. colias within a wide scope of its distribution across West African waters from the South of Morocco to the North-Centre of Namibia and underscores the need for increased regional cooperation in fisheries management and conservation.

Key benthic species are affected by predicted warming in winter but show resistance to ocean acidification

The effects of climate change on coastal biodiversity are a major concern because altered community compositions may change associated rates of ecosystem functioning and services. Whilst responses of single species or taxa have been studied extensively, it remains challenging to estimate responses to climate change across different levels of biological organisation. Studies that consider the effects of moderate realistic near-future levels of ocean warming and acidification are needed to identify and quantify the gradual responses of species to change. Also, studies including different levels of biological complexity may reveal opportunities for amelioration or facilitation under changing environmental conditions. To test experimentally for independent and combined effects of predicted near-future warming and acidification on key benthic species, we manipulated three levels of temperature (winter ambient, +0.8 and +2°C) and two levels of pco 2 (ambient at 450 ppm and elevated at 645 ppm) and quantified their effects on mussels and algae growing separately and together (to also test for inter-specific interactions). Warming increased mussel clearance and mortality rates simultaneously, which meant that total biomass peaked at +0.8°C. Surprisingly, however, no effects of elevated pco 2 were identified on mussels or algae. Moreover, when kept together, mussels and algae had mutually positive effects on each other's performance (i.e. mussel survival and condition index, mussel and algal biomass and proxies for algal productivity including relative maximum electron transport rate [rETRmax], saturating light intensity [I k] and maximum quantum yield [F v/F m]), independent of warming and acidification. Our results show that even moderate warming affected the functioning of key benthic species, and we identified a level of resistance to predicted ocean acidification. Importantly, we show that the presence of a second functional group enhanced the functioning of both groups (mussels and algae), independent of changing environmental conditions, which highlights the ecological and potential economic benefits of conserving biodiversity in marine ecosystems.

Recruitment of European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) in northerly UK estuaries indicates a mismatch between spawning and fisheries closure periods

European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) is a species of high commercial and recreational value, but it exhibits highly variable recruitment rates and has been subject to recent declines. Emergency management measures put in place to protect spawning stocks include the annual closure of commercial and recreational fisheries over a 2-month, February-March, window. Whether this protection measure is having the desired outcome for this data-poor species remains unclear. Otolith microstructural analyses (counts and widths of daily growth rings and check marks indicative of settlement) were used to estimate (1) spawn timing, (2) pelagic larval duration and settlement timing, (3) growth rate and condition, and (4) the otolith-fish size relationship for juvenile European sea bass caught from two estuaries in Wales (Dwyryd, Y Foryd), located at the northern edge of the species range. We observed a significant mismatch between the timing of fisheries closures and the spawning, with 99.2% of recruits having been spawned after the fishery had reopened (back-calculated median spawn date = May 5 ± 17 days SD), suggesting that the closure may be too early to adequately protect this population. Further, we present the first empirically derived estimates of pelagic larval duration for sea bass recruits settling in UK habitats, which showed a strong negative relationship with spawn date. Finally, we found significant differences in fish condition between the two estuaries, suggesting local variation in habitat quality. The results suggest that the timing of current fisheries closures may not be adequately protecting the spawners supplying these northernmost estuaries, which are likely to become increasingly important as sea bass distributions shift northward in our climate future.

Assessing marine ecosystem health using multi-omic analysis of blue mussel liquid biopsies: A case study within a national marine park

Marine ecosystems are under escalating threats from myriad environmental stressors, necessitating a deeper understanding of their impact on biodiversity and the health of sentinel organisms. In this study, we carried out a spatiotemporal multi-omic analysis of liquid biopsies collected from mussels (Mytilus spp.) in marine ecosystems of a national park. We delved into the epigenomic, transcriptomic, glycomic, proteomic, and microbiomic profiles to unravel the intricate interplay between ecosystem biodiversity and mussels' biological response to their environments. Our analysis revealed temporal fluctuations in the alpha diversity of the circulating microbiome associated with human activities. Analysis of the hemolymphatic circulating cell-free DNA (ccfDNA) provided information on the biodiversity and the presence of potential pathogens. Epigenomic analysis revealed widespread hypomethylation sites within the mitochondrial (mtDNA). Comparative transcriptomic and glycomic analyses highlighted differences in metabolic pathways and genes associated with immune and wound healing functions. This study demonstrates the potential of multi-omic analysis of liquid biopsy in sentinel to provide a holistic view of human activities' environmental impacts on marine coastal ecosystems. Overall, this approach has the potential to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of various conservation efforts, leading to more informed decision-making and better outcomes for biodiversity and ecosystem conservation.

Sensitivity of gross primary production to precipitation and the driving factors in China's agricultural ecosystems

Recent climate warming has significantly affected the sensitivity of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) to precipitation within China's agricultural ecosystems. Nonetheless, the spatial and temporal nonlinear evolution patterns of GPP-precipitation sensitivity under climate change, as well as the underlying drivers and long-term trends of this sensitivity, are not well understood. This study employs correlation analysis to quantify the sensitivity between GPP and precipitation in China's agricultural ecosystems, and utilizes nonlinear detection algorithms to examine the long-term changes in this sensitivity. Advanced machine learning techniques and frameworks are subsequently applied to analyze the driving factors of GPP-precipitation sensitivity in China's agricultural ecosystems. The findings reveal that approximately 49.00 % of the analyzed pixels exhibit a significant positive correlation between GPP and precipitation. Nonlinear change analysis indicates spatial heterogeneity in GPP-precipitation sensitivity across China's agricultural ecosystems, with patterns showing initial increases followed by decreases accounting for 25.12 %, and patterns of initial decreases followed by increases at 13.27 %. Machine learning analysis identifies temperature, soil moisture, and crop water footprint as the primary factors influencing GPP-precipitation sensitivity in agricultural ecosystems. This study is the first to introduce crop water footprint as a significant factor in the analysis of GPP-precipitation sensitivity. It not only offers new insights into the temporal nonlinear changes and driving factors of GPP-precipitation sensitivity but also underscores the importance of enhancing agricultural water efficiency to maintain agricultural ecosystem health and ensure food security under climate change.

From shells to sequences: A proof-of-concept study for on-site analysis of hemolymphatic circulating cell-free DNA from sentinel mussels using Nanopore technology

Blue mussels are often abundant and widely distributed in polar marine coastal ecosystems. Because of their wide distribution, ecological importance, and relatively stationary lifestyle, bivalves have long been considered suitable indicators of ecosystem health and changes. Monitoring the population dynamics of blue mussels can provide information on the overall biodiversity, species interactions, and ecosystem functioning. In the present work, we combined the concept of liquid biopsy (LB), an emerging concept in medicine based on the sequencing of free circulating DNA, with the Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT) platform using a portable laboratory in a remote area. Our results demonstrate that this platform is ideally suited for sequencing hemolymphatic circulating cell-free DNA (ccfDNA) fragments found in blue mussels. The percentage of non-self ccfDNA accounted for >50 % of ccfDNA at certain sampling Sites, allowing the quick, on-site acquisition of a global view of the biodiversity of a coastal marine ecosystem. These ccfDNA fragments originated from viruses, bacteria, plants, arthropods, algae, and multiple Chordata. Aside from non-self ccfDNA, we found DNA fragments from all 14 blue mussel chromosomes, as well as those originating from the mitochondrial genomes. However, the distribution of nuclear and mitochondrial DNA was significantly different between Sites. Similarly, analyses between various sampling Sites showed that the biodiversity varied significantly within microhabitats. Our work shows that the ONT platform is well-suited for LB in sentinel blue mussels in remote and challenging conditions, enabling faster fieldwork for conservation strategies and resource management in diverse settings.

Climate change in cold regions

Cold regions around the world include Arctic, Antarctic and High Mountain regions featuring low temperatures, ice-covered landscapes, permafrost, and unique ecologic interrelations. These environments are among the most sensitive to climate change and are changing rapidly as the global climate gets warmer. This editorial explores the complexity of the impacts of climate change on cold regions, highlighting recent changes across Earth system. The Special Issue here presented compiles studies that explore the climate change in different cold regions from various perspectives, including paleoclimatic reconstructions, isotherm shifts and climate projections. Despite progress, significant questions remain, demanding interdisciplinary approaches to better understand the interconnected factors shaping cold regions.

Environmental microbial diversity and water pollution characteristics resulted from 150 km coastline in Quanzhou Bay offshore area

As a typical transitional area between the land and sea, the offshore area is subjected to the triple synergistic pressure from the ocean, land, and atmosphere at the same time, and has obvious characteristics such as complex and diverse chemical, physical, and biological processes, coupled and changeable environmental factors, and sensitive and fragile ecological environment. With the deepening of the urbanization process, the offshore area has gradually become the final receptions of pollutants produced by industry, agriculture, and service industries, and plays a key role in the global environmental geochemical cycle of pollutants. In this study, the Quanzhou Bay offshore area was selected as the research object. Sediment and water samples were collected from 8 sampling points within about 150 km of coastline in the Quanzhou Bay offshore area. 16s rDNA high-throughput sequencing method was used to investigate the variation rule of microbial diversity in the offshore area, and multi-parameter water quality analysis was carried out at the same time. The results showed that the distribution characteristics of microbial communities and water quality in the Quanzhou Bay offshore area showed significant differences in different latitudes and longitudes. This difference is closely related to the complexity of offshore area. This study can provide scientific support for protecting and improving the ecological environment of offshore areas.

Harnessing eDNA metabarcoding to investigate fish community composition and its seasonal changes in the Oslo fjord

In the face of global ecosystem changes driven by anthropogenic activities, effective biomonitoring strategies are crucial for mitigating impacts on vulnerable aquatic habitats. Time series analysis underscores a great significance in understanding the dynamic nature of marine ecosystems, especially amidst climate change disrupting established seasonal patterns. Focusing on Norway's Oslo fjord, our research utilises eDNA-based monitoring for temporal analysis of aquatic biodiversity during a one year period, with bi-monthly sampling along a transect. To increase the robustness of the study, a taxonomic assignment comparing BLAST+ and SINTAX approaches was done. Utilising MiFish and Elas02 primer sets, our study detected 63 unique fish species, including several commercially important species. Our findings reveal a substantial increase in read abundance during specific migratory cycles, highlighting the efficacy of eDNA metabarcoding for fish composition characterization. Seasonal dynamics for certain species exhibit clear patterns, emphasising the method's utility in unravelling ecological complexities. eDNA metabarcoding emerges as a cost-effective tool with considerable potential for fish community monitoring for conservation purposes in dynamic marine environments like the Oslo fjord, contributing valuable insights for informed management strategies.

Investigating the outcomes of a threatened gorgonian in situ transplantation: Survival and microbiome diversity in Paramuricea clavata (Risso, 1827)

Gorgonian octocorals are threatened by global and local stressors that can act synergistically to affect their health. In recent years, mass mortality events triggered by marine heatwaves have caused demographic declines in Mediterranean gorgonian populations that may lead to their collapse. Potential changes in microbiome composition under stressful conditions may further increase the susceptibility of the gorgonian holobiont to disease. Given the low recovery capacity of gorgonians, restoration approaches using transplantation are becoming an increasingly attractive option to counteract their decline. Here, we compared the survival and microbiome diversity of Paramuricea clavata colonies transplanted to sites differing in depth and local environmental conditions. Gorgonians sampled at a greater depth than the transplantation site were more likely to suffer necrosis after 1 year of monitoring. Gorgonian transplantation into environments disturbed by an anthropogenic source of pollution resulted in an imbalance of the microbiome with potential consequences on the success of restoration initiatives.

Projecting kelp (Ecklonia radiata) gametophyte thermal adaptation and persistence under climate change

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Kelp forests underpin temperate marine ecosystems but are declining due to ocean warming, causing loss of associated ecosystem services. Projections suggest significant future decline but often only consider the persistence of adult sporophytes. Kelps have a biphasic life cycle, and the haploid gametophyte can be more thermally tolerant than the sporophyte. Therefore, projections may be altered when considering the thermal tolerance of gametophytes.

METHODS

We undertook thermal tolerance experiments to quantify the effect of temperature on gametophyte survival, relative growth rate (RGR) and sex ratio for three genetically distinct populations of Ecklonia radiata gametophytes from comparatively high, mid- and low latitudes (43°, 33° and 30°S). We then used these data to project the likely consequences of climate-induced thermal change on gametophyte persistence and performance across its eastern Australian range, using generalized additive and linear models.

KEY RESULTS

All populations were adapted to local temperatures and their thermal maximum was 2-3 °C above current maximum in situ temperatures. The lowest latitude population was most thermally tolerant (~70 % survival up to 27 °C), while survival and RGR decreased beyond 25.5 and 20.5 °C for the mid- and low-latitude populations, respectively. Sex ratios were skewed towards females with increased temperature in the low- and high-latitude populations. Spatially explicit model projections under future ocean warming (2050-centred) revealed a minimal decline in survival (0-30 %) across populations, relative to present-day predictions. RGRs were also projected to decline minimally (0-2 % d-1).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results contrast with projections for the sporophyte stage of E. radiata, which suggest a 257-km range contraction concurrent with loss of the low-latitude population by 2100. Thermal adaptation in E. radiata gametophytes suggests this life stage is likely resilient to future ocean warming and is unlikely to be a bottleneck for the future persistence of kelp.

Thresholds of seascape fauna composition along gradients of human pressures and natural conditions to inform marine spatial planning

Knowledge about the cumulative impacts of anthropogenic activities and environmental conditions on marine ecosystems is incomplete and details are lacking. Compositional community changes can occur along gradients, and community data can be used to assess the state of community resilience against combined impacts of variables representing human pressures and environmental conditions. Here we use a machine learning approach, i.e., Gradient Forest, to identify explanatory variable thresholds and select relevant epibenthic fauna and demersal fish species, which can be used to inform an integrated management of multiple human pressures and conservation planning in the southern North Sea. We show that a broad selection of anthropogenic and environmental variables, such as natural disturbance of the seafloor and euphotic depth, determined community composition thresholds of 67 epibenthic fauna and 39 demersal fish species along environmental conditions and human pressure gradients in the southern North Sea between 2010 and 2020. This has the potential to inform resilience assessments under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive to promote and retain a good environmental status of marine ecosystems.

Co-occurrence of native and invasive macroalgae might be facilitated under global warming

Climate change is driving compositional shifts in ecological communities directly by affecting species and indirectly through changes in species interactions. For example, competitive hierarchies can be inversed when competitive dominants are more susceptible to climate change. The brown seaweed Fucus vesiculosus is a foundation species in the Baltic Sea, experiencing novel interactions with the invasive red seaweed Gracilaria vermiculophylla, which is known for its high tolerance to environmental stress. We investigated the direct and interactive effects of warming and co-occurrence of the two algal species on their performance, by applying four climate change-relevant temperature scenarios: 1) cooling ) 2 °C below ambient - representing past conditions), 2) ambient summer temperature (18 °C), 3) IPCC RCP2.6 warming scenario (1 °C above ambient), and 4) RCP8.5 warming (3 °C above ambient) for 30 days and two compositional levels (mono and co-cultured algae) in a fully-crossed design. The RCP8.5 warming scenario increased photosynthesis, respiration, and nutrients' uptake rates of mono- and co-cultured G. vermiculophylla while growth was reduced. An increase in photosynthesis and essential nutrients' uptake and, at the same time, a growth reduction might result from increasing stress and energy demand of G. vermiculophylla under warming. In contrast, the growth of mono-cultured F. vesiculosus significantly increased in the highest warming treatment (+3 °C). The cooling treatment (-2 °C) exerted a slight negative effect only on co-cultured F. vesiculosus photosynthesis, compared to the ambient treatment. Interestingly, at ambient and warming (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios) treatments, both F. vesiculosus and G. vermiculophylla appear to benefit from the presence of each other. Our results suggest that short exposure of F. vesiculosus to moderate or severe global warming scenarios may not directly affect or even slightly enhance its performance, while G. vermiculophylla net performance (growth) could be directly hampered by warming.

Effects of elevated temperature and different crystal structures of TiO2 nanoparticles on the gut microbiota of mussel Mytilus coruscus

Coastal habitats are exposed to increasing pressure of nanopollutants commonly combined with warming due to the seasonal temperature cycles and global climate change. To investigate the toxicological effects of TiO2 nanoparticles (TiO2 NPs) and elevated temperature on the intestinal health of the mussels (Mytilus coruscus), the mussels were exposed to 0.1 mg/L TiO2 NPs with different crystal structures for 14 days at 20 °C and 28 °C, respectively. Compared to 20 °C, the agglomeration of TiO2 NPs was more serious at 28 °C. Exposure to TiO2 NPs led to elevated mortality of M. coruscus and modified the intestinal microbial community as shown by 16S rRNA sequence analysis. Exposure to TiO2 NPs changed the relative abundance of Bacteroidetes, Proteobacteria and Firmicutes. The relative abundances of putative mutualistic symbionts Tenericutes and Fusobacteria increased in the gut of M. coruscus exposed to anatase, which have contributed to the lower mortality in this group. LEfSe showed the combined stress of warming and TiO2 NPs increased the risk of M. coruscus being infected with potential pathogenic bacteria. This study emphasizes the toxicity differences between crystal structures of TiO2 NPs, and will provides an important reference for analyzing the physiological and ecological effects of nanomaterial pollution on bivalves under the background of global climate change.

Thinking outside the ocean-climate nexus: Towards systems-informed decision making in a rapidly changing world

Despite repeated calls for more inclusive practices, approaches used to address current challenges within the ocean-climate nexus do not sufficiently account for the complexity of the human-social-ecological system. So far, this has prevented efficient and just decision-making and policies. We propose to shift towards systems-informed decision making, which values transdisciplinary system-thinking and cumulative impact assessments, and encourages multi-system collaboration among decision-makers in order to address the recurring technicality of policies and to foster just solutions that account for the needs of varied actors across the sustainable development spectrum.

Framing future trajectories of human activities in the German North Sea to inform cumulative effects assessments and marine spatial planning

The global industrialization of seascapes and climate change leads to an increased risk of severe impacts on marine ecosystem functioning. While broad scale spatio-temporal assessments of human pressures on marine ecosystems become more available, future trajectories of human activities at regional and local scales remain often speculative. Here we introduce a stepwise process to integrate bottom-up and expert-driven approaches for scenario development to inform cumulative effects assessments and related marine spatial planning (MSP). Following this guidance, we developed optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic scenarios for major human pressures in the German North Sea such as bottom trawling, offshore wind, nutrient discharge, and aggregate extraction. The forecasts comprise quantitative estimates in relation to spatial footprint, intensity, and technological advancements of those pressures for the years 2030 and 2060. Using network analyses, we assessed interactions of the current and future trajectories of pressures thereby accounting for climate change and the growing need for marine conservation. Our results show that future scenarios of spatial distributions could be developed for activities that are spatially refined and included in the current MSP process. Further our detailed analyses of interdependencies of development components revealed that forecasts regarding specific targets and intensities of human activities depend also strongly on future technological advances. For fisheries and nutrient discharge estimates were less certain due to critical socio-ecological interactions in the marine and terrestrial realm. Overall, our approach unraveled such trade-offs and sources of uncertainties. Yet, our quantitative predictive scenarios were built under a sustainability narrative on a profound knowledge of interactions with other sectors and components in and outside the management boundaries. We advocate that they enable a better preparedness for future changes of cumulative pressure on marine ecosystems.

Marine diseases and the Anthropocene: Understanding microbial pathogenesis in a rapidly changing world

Healthy marine ecosystems are paramount for Earth's biodiversity and are key to sustaining the global economy and human health. The effects of anthropogenic activity represent a pervasive threat to the productivity of marine ecosystems, with intensifying environmental stressors such as climate change and pollution driving the occurrence and severity of microbial diseases that can devastate marine ecosystems and jeopardise food security. Despite the potentially catastrophic outcomes of marine diseases, our understanding of host-pathogen interactions remains an understudied aspect of both microbiology and environmental research, especially when compared to the depth of information available for human and agricultural systems. Here, we identify three avenues of research in which we can advance our understanding of marine disease in the context of global change, and make positive steps towards safeguarding marine communities for future generations.

Mechanisms of cardiac collapse at high temperature in a marine teleost (Girella nigrians)

Heat-induced mortality in ectotherms may be attributed to impaired cardiac performance, specifically a collapse in maximum heart rate (fHmax), although the physiological mechanisms driving this phenomenon are still unknown. Here, we tested two proposed factors which may restrict cardiac upper thermal limits: noxious venous blood conditions and oxygen limitation. We hypothesized elevated blood [K+] (hyperkalemia) and low oxygen (hypoxia) would reduce cardiac upper thermal limits in a marine teleost (Girella nigricans), while high oxygen (hyperoxia) would increase thermal limits. We also hypothesized higher acclimation temperatures would exacerbate the harmful effects of an oxygen limitation. Using the Arrhenius breakpoint temperature test, we measured fHmax in acutely warmed fish under control (saline injected) and hyperkalemic conditions (elevated plasma [K+]) while exposed to hyperoxia (200% air saturation), normoxia (100% air saturation), or hypoxia (20% air saturation). We also measured ventricle lactate content and venous blood oxygen partial pressure (PO2) to determine if there were universal thresholds in either metric driving cardiac collapse. Elevated [K+] was not significantly correlated with any cardiac thermal tolerance metric. Hypoxia significantly reduced cardiac upper thermal limits (Arrhenius breakpoint temperature [TAB], peak fHmax, temperature of peak heart rate [TPeak], and temperature at arrhythmia [TARR]). Hyperoxia did not alter cardiac thermal limits compared to normoxia. There was no evidence of a species-wide threshold in ventricular [lactate] or venous PO2. Here, we demonstrate that oxygen limits cardiac thermal tolerance only in instances of hypoxia, but that other physiological processes are responsible for causing temperature-induced heart failure when oxygen is not limited.

Canopy-forming macroalgae can adapt to marine heatwaves

Seawater warming and marine heatwaves (MHWs) have a major role on the fragmentation and loss of coastal marine habitats. Understanding the resilience and potential for adaptation of marine habitat forming species to ocean warming becomes pivotal for predicting future changes, improving present conservation and restoration strategies. In this study, a thermo-tolerance experiment was conducted to investigate the physiological effects of short vs long MHWs occurring at different timing on recruits of Gongolaria barbata, a canopy-forming species widespread in the Mediterranean Sea. The recruits were collected from a population of the Marine Protected Area of Porto Cesareo (Apulia, Ionian Sea). Recruits length, PSII maximal photochemical efficiency (Fv/Fm), photosynthetic pigments content, concentrations of antioxidant compounds and total antioxidant activity (DPPH) were the response variables measured during the experiment. Univariate asymmetrical analyses highlighted that all physiological variables were significantly affected by both the duration and the timing of the thermal stress with the only exception of recruits length. The higher Fv/Fm ratio, chlorophylls and carotenoids content, and antioxidant compounds concentration in recruits exposed to long-term stress likely indicate an acclimation of thalli to the new environmental conditions and hence, an increased tolerance of G. barbata to thermal stress. Results also suggest that the mechanisms of adaptation activated in response to thermal stress did not affect the natural growth rate of recruits. Overall, this study supports the hypothesis that canopy-forming species can adapt to future climate conditions demonstrating a physiological acclimation to cope with MHWs, providing strong evidence that adaptation of marine species to thermal stress is more frequent than expected, this contributing to design tailored conservation and restoration strategies for marine coastal habitat.

Patterns of change in coral reef communities of a remote Maldivian atoll revisited after eleven years

Coral reefs are exposed worldwide to several global and local human pressures including climate change and coastal development. Assessing the effects of such pressures on coral reef communities and the changes they undergo over time is mandatory to understand their possible future trends. Nonetheless, some coral reefs receive no or little scientific attention, as in the case of Huvadhoo Atoll that is an under-studied region in the southernmost area of the Maldives (Indian Ocean). This study analyzes the changes occurring over time in eight coral reefs (four inner reefs within the atoll lagoon and four outer reefs on the ocean side) at Huvadhoo Atoll, firstly surveyed in 2009 and revisited in 2020 using the same field methods. The cover of 23 morphological benthic descriptors (including different growth forms of Acropora) was taken into account and then grouped into three categories (i.e., hard coral, other benthic taxa and abiotic descriptors) to analyze the change in the composition of the coral reef community. Significant changes (e.g., increase in hard coral cover and decrease in abiotic descriptors) were observed in the inner reefs as compared to the outer reefs, which showed less variability. A significant decrease in tabular Acropora cover was observed in both inner and outer reefs, with possible negative effects on reef complexity and functioning. By comparing two time periods and two reef types, this study provides novel information on the change over time in the community composition of Maldivian coral reefs.

Integrated assessment of eutrophication in the southern Black Sea waters, using the Nested Environmental Status Assessment Tool

This research deals with the land-based pressures on the southern Black Sea coast (Turkey), with the objective of assessing their eutrophication impacts. In this context, reference values of some of the eutrophication indicators were calculated, and eutrophication assessment was carried out for this area using the holistic approach NEAT (Nested Environmental Status Assessment Tool). In addition, correlations between NEAT results of coastal regions and pressure-impact analysis methods were investigated. In the determined Spatial Assessment Unit (SAU) areas, 9 indicators were evaluated according to the SAU surface, both with and without weighting by their size the overall assessment of the Turkish Black Sea coast is good (0.70) and moderate (0.57) environmental status, for non-weighting and weighting by SAUs, respectively, with a high confidence level. With this study, we concluded that the sensitivity of the assessment tool needs to be increased. Despite these results, an appropriate number of indicators to represent the water column should be added. It is important to include the phytoplankton variable in the evaluation in future studies. In addition, this study, which uses NEAT allows identifying problematic environmental areas that require attention and action from managers and policymakers.

New Record of Dendronephthya sp. (Family: Nephtheidae) from Mediterranean Israel: Evidence for Tropicalization?

Bio-invasions have the potential to provoke cascade effects that can disrupt natural ecosystems and cause ecological regime shifts. The Mediterranean Sea is particularly prone to bio-invasions as the changing water conditions, evoked by climate change, are creating advantageous conditions for Lessepsian migrants from the Red Sea. Recently, in May 2023, a new alien species was documented in the Mediterranean Sea-a soft coral of the genus Dendronephthya. This discovery was made by divers conducting 'Long-Term Ecological Research' surveys, along the coast of Israel, at a depth of 42 m. Genetic and morphological testing suggest that the species identity may be Dendronepthya hemprichi, an Indo-Pacific coral, common in the Red Sea. According to life history traits of this species, such as accelerated attachment to available surfaces and fast growth, we expect it to rapidly expand its distribution and abundance across the Mediterranean Sea.

Cumulative Negative Impacts of Invasive Alien Species on Marine Ecosystems of the Aegean Sea

Biological invasions are a human-induced environmental disturbance that can cause major changes in ecosystem structure and functioning. Located in the northeastern Mediterranean basin, the Aegean Sea is a hotspot of biological invasions. Although the presence of alien species in the Aegean has been studied and monitored, no assessment has been conducted on their cumulative impacts on native biodiversity. To address this gap, we applied the CIMPAL index, a framework developed for mapping the cumulative impacts of invasive species, to identify the most affected areas and habitat types and determine the most invasive species in the region. Coastal areas showed stronger impacts than the open sea. The highest CIMPAL scores were four times more frequent in the South than in the North Aegean. Shallow (0-60 m) hard substrates were the most heavily impacted habitat type, followed by shallow soft substrates and seagrass meadows. We identified Caulerpa cylindracea, Lophocladia lallemandii, Siganus luridus, Siganus rivulatus, and Womersleyella setacea as the most impactful species across their range of occurrence in the Aegean but rankings varied depending on the habitat type and impact indicator applied. Our assessment can support marine managers in prioritizing decisions and actions to control biological invasions and mitigate their impacts.