Community-level phenological response to climate change

Disruption of Biological Processes in the Anthropocene: The Case of Phenological Mismatch

Biologists are increasingly documenting anthropogenic disruptions, both at the organism and ecosystem levels, indicating that these disruptions are a fundamental, qualitative component of the Anthropocene. Nonetheless, the notion of disruption has yet to be theorized. Informally, disruptions are direct or indirect consequences of specific causes that impair the contribution of parts of living systems to their ability to last over time. To progress in this theorization, we work here on a particular case. Even relatively minor temperature changes can significantly impact plant-pollinator synchrony, disrupting mutualistic interaction networks. Understanding this phenomenon requires a specific rationale since models describing it use both historical and systemic reasoning. Specifically, history justifies that the ecosystem initially exists in a very narrow part of the possibility space where all its populations are viable, and the disruption leads to a more generic configuration where some populations are not viable. Building on this rationale, we develop a mathematical schema inspired by Boltzmann's entropy, apply it to this situation, and provide a technical definition of disruption.

Better soon than never: climate change induces strong phenological reassembly in the flowering of a Mediterranean shrub community

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Flowering is a key process in the life cycle of a plant. Climate change is shifting flowering phenologies in the Northern Hemisphere, but studies with long data series at the community level are scarce, especially those considering the consequences of phenological changes for emerging ecological interactions. In the Mediterranean region, the effects of climate change are stronger than the global average and there is an urgent need to understand how biodiversity will be affected in this area.

METHODS

In this study, we investigated how the entire flowering phenology of a community comprising 51 perennial species from the south of the Iberian Peninsula changed from the decade of the 1980s to the 2020s. Furthermore, we have analysed the consequences of these changes for flowering order and co-flowering patterns.

KEY RESULTS

We have found that the flowering phenology of the community has advanced by ~20 days, which is coherent with the increasing temperatures related to climate change. Individual species have generally advanced their entire flowering phenology (start and end) and increased their flowering duration. The early flowering has resulted in a re-organization of the flowering order of the community and generated new co-flowering assemblages of species, with a slight trend towards an increase of shared flowering time among species.

CONCLUSIONS

The advanced flowering phenology and changes in flowering duration reported here were of unprecedented magnitude, showcasing the extreme effects of climate change on Mediterranean ecosystems. Furthermore, the effects were not similar among species, which could be attributed to differences in sensitivities of environmental cues for flowering. One consequence of these changes in flowering times is ecological mismatches, indicated by changes in the flowering order and co-flowering between decades. This new scenario might lead to new competitive or facilitative interactions and to the loss or gain of pollinators.

Phenological divergence between plants and animals under climate change

Climate change has altered the timing of recurring biological cycles in both plants and animals. Phenological changes may be unequal within and among trophic levels, potentially impacting the intricate interactions that regulate ecosystem functioning. Here we compile and analyse a global dataset of terrestrial phenological observations, including nearly half a million time series for both plants and animals. Our analysis reveals an increasing phenological asynchronization between plants and animals from 1981 to 2020, with a stronger overall advancement of late-season phenophases for plants than for animals. Almost 30% of temporal variations in plant phenophases can be explained by the timing of the preceding phenophases. This temporal dependency allows the advancement caused by warming to accumulate and propagate through seasons, advancing later phenophases more than earlier phases. By contrast, animals rely on various environmental cues and resource-tracking strategies to initiate their life-cycle activities, which weakens their cross-phenophase linkage and undermines the effect of warming. Our results suggest that future warming may increase phenological asynchronization between plants and animals and potentially disturb trophic interactions and ecosystem stability.

Changes in flowering phenology with altered rainfall and the potential community impacts in an annual grassland

PREMISE

Shifts in the timing of life history events, or phenology, have been recorded across many taxa and biomes in response to global change. These phenological changes are often studied in a single species context, but considering the community context is essential for anticipating the cascading effects on biotic interactions that are likely to occur. Focusing on an annual grassland plant community, we examined how experimental changes in precipitation affect flowering phenology in a community context and explore the implications of these shifts for competitive interactions and species coexistence.

METHODS

We experimentally manipulated rainfall with rainout shelters and recorded detailed flowering phenology data for seven annual species including two grasses and five forbs. We assessed how their first and peak flowering days were affected by changes in rainfall and explored how flowering overlap between competing species changed.

RESULTS

Changes in rainfall shifted flowering phenology of some species, but sensitivity differed among neighboring species. Four of the seven species studied started and/or peaked flowering earlier in response to reduced water availability. The idiosyncratic shifts in flowering phenology have the potential to alter existing temporal dynamics that may be maintaining coexistence, such as temporal separation of resource-use among neighbors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show how species-specific phenological consequences of global change can impact community dynamics and competition between neighboring plants and warrant future research.

Soilscapes of Mortality Risk Suggest a Goldilocks Effect for Overwintering Ectotherms

AbstractChanging climates are driving population declines in diverse animals worldwide. Winter conditions may play an important role in these declines but are often overlooked. Animals must not only survive winter but also preserve body condition, a key determinant of growing season success. We hypothesized that ectotherms overwintering in soil face a trade-off between risks of cold damage (including freezing) near the surface and elevated energy use at deeper depths. To test this hypothesis, we developed landscapes of mortality risk across depth for overwintering bumble bee queens. These critical pollinators are in decline in part because of climate change, but little is known about how climate affects overwintering mortality. We developed a mechanistic modeling approach combining measurements of freezing points and the temperature dependence of metabolic rates with soil temperatures from across the United States to estimate mortality risk across depth under historic conditions and under several climate change scenarios. Under current conditions, overwintering queens face a Goldilocks effect: temperatures can be too cold at shallow depths because of substantial freezing risk but too hot at deep depths where they risk prematurely exhausting lipid stores. Models suggest that increases in mean temperatures and in seasonal and daily temperature variation will increase risk of overwinter mortality. Better predictions of effects of changing climate on dormant ectotherms require more measurements of physiological responses to temperature during dormancy across diverse taxa.

Long-term data reveal widespread phenological change across major US estuarine food webs

Climate change is shifting the timing of organismal life-history events. Although consequential food-web mismatches can emerge if predators and prey shift at different rates, research on phenological shifts has traditionally focused on single trophic levels. Here, we analysed >2000 long-term, monthly time series of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish abundance or biomass for the San Francisco, Chesapeake, and Massachusetts bays. Phenological shifts occurred in over a quarter (28%) of the combined series across all three estuaries. However, phenological trends for many taxa (ca. 29-68%) did not track the changing environment. While planktonic taxa largely advanced their phenologies, fishes displayed broad patterns of both advanced and delayed timing of peak abundance. Overall, these divergent patterns illustrate the potential for climate-driven trophic mismatches. Our results suggest that even if signatures of global climate change differ locally, widespread phenological change has the potential to disrupt estuarine food webs.

Climate change impacts flowering phenology in Gongga Mountains, Southwest China

Flowering phenology of plants, which is important for reproductive growth, has been shown to be influenced by climate change. Understanding how flowering phenology responds to climate change and exploring the variation of this response across plant groups can help predict structural and functional changes in plant communities in response to ongoing climate change. Here, we used long-term collections of 33 flowering plant species from the Gongga Mountains (Mt. Gongga hereafter), a biodiversity hotspot, to investigate how plant flowering phenology changed over the past 70 years in response to climate change. We found that mean flowering times in Mt. Gongga were delayed in all vegetation types and elevations over the last 70 years. Furthermore, flowering time was delayed more in lowlands than at high elevations. Interestingly, we observed that spring-flowering plants show earlier flowering times whereas summer/autumn plants show delayed flowering times. Non-synchronous flowering phenology across species was mainly driven by changes in temperature and precipitation. We also found that the flowering phenology of 78.8% plant species was delayed in response to warming temperatures. Our findings also indicate that the magnitude and direction of variation in plant flowering times vary significantly among species along elevation gradients. Shifts in flowering time might cause trophic mismatches with co-occurring and related species, affecting both forest ecosystem structure and function.

Pattern and Process in a Rapidly Changing World: Ideas and Approaches

AbstractScience is as dynamic as the world around us. Our ideas continually change, as do the approaches we use to study science. Few things remain invariant in this changing landscape, but a fascination with pattern and process is one that has endured throughout the history of science. Paying homage to this long-held tradition, the 2023 Vice Presidential Symposium of the American Society of Naturalists focused on the role of pattern and process in ecology and evolution. It brought together a group of early-career researchers working on topics ranging from genetic diversity in microbes to changing patterns of species interactions in the geological record. Their work spanned the taxonomic spectrum from microbes to mammals, the temporal dimension from the Cenozoic to the present, and approaches ranging from manipulative experiments to comparative approaches. In this introductory article, I discuss how these diverse topics are linked by the common thread of elucidating processes underlying patterns and how they collectively generate novel insights into diversity maintenance at different levels of organization.

Spatial Nonstationarity in Phenological Responses of Nearctic Birds to Climate Variability

Climate change is shifting the phenology of migratory animals earlier; yet an understanding of how climate change leads to variable shifts across populations, species and communities remains hampered by limited spatial and taxonomic sampling. In this study, we used a hierarchical Bayesian model to analyse 88,965 site-specific arrival dates from 222 bird species over 21 years to investigate the role of temperature, snowpack, precipitation, the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation on the spring arrival timing of Nearctic birds. Interannual variation in bird arrival on breeding grounds was most strongly explained by temperature and snowpack, and less strongly by precipitation and climate oscillations. Sensitivity of arrival timing to climatic variation exhibited spatial nonstationarity, being highly variable within and across species. A high degree of heterogeneity in phenological sensitivity suggests diverging responses to ongoing climatic changes at the population, species and community scale, with potentially negative demographic and ecological consequences.

Time is of the essence: A general framework for uncovering temporal structures of communities

Ecological communities are inherently dynamic: species constantly turn over within years, months, weeks or even days. These temporal shifts in community composition determine essential aspects of species interactions and how energy, nutrients, information, diseases and perturbations 'flow' through systems. Yet, our understanding of community structure has relied heavily on static analyses not designed to capture critical features of this dynamic temporal dimension of communities. Here, we propose a conceptual and methodological framework for quantifying and analysing this temporal dimension. Conceptually, we split the temporal structure into two definitive features, sequence and duration, and review how they are linked to key concepts in ecology. We then outline how we can capture these definitive features using perspectives and tools from temporal graph theory. We demonstrate how we can easily integrate ongoing research on phenology into this framework and highlight what new opportunities arise from this approach to answer fundamental questions in community ecology. As climate change reshuffles ecological communities worldwide, quantifying the temporal organization of communities is imperative to resolve the fundamental processes that shape natural ecosystems and predict how these systems may change in the future.

Longer days, larger grays: carryover effects of photoperiod and temperature in gray treefrogs, Hyla versicolor

Environmental conditions like temperature and photoperiod can strongly shape organisms' growth and development. For many ectotherms with complex life cycles, global change will cause their offspring to experience warmer conditions and earlier-season photoperiods, two variables that can induce conflicting responses. We experimentally manipulated photoperiod and temperature during gray treefrog (Hyla versicolor) larval development to examine effects at metamorphosis and during short (10-day) and long (56-day) periods post-metamorphosis. Both early- and late-season photoperiods (April and August) decreased age and size at metamorphosis relative to the average-season (June) photoperiod, while warmer temperatures decreased age but increased size at metamorphosis. Warmer larval temperatures reduced short-term juvenile growth but had no long-term effect. Conversely, photoperiod had no short-term carryover effect, but juveniles from early- and late-season larval photoperiods had lower long-term growth rates than juveniles from the average-season photoperiod. Similar responses to early- and late-season photoperiods may be due to reduced total daylight compared with average-season photoperiods. However, juveniles from late-season photoperiods selected cooler temperatures than early-season juveniles, suggesting that not all effects of photoperiod were due to total light exposure. Our results indicate that despite both temperature and photoperiod affecting metamorphosis, the long-term effects of photoperiod may be much stronger than those of temperature.

Opportunistic plant observations reveal spatial and temporal gradients in phenology

Opportunistic plant records provide a rapidly growing source of spatiotemporal plant observation data. Here, we used such data to explore the question whether they can be used to detect changes in species phenologies. Examining 19 herbaceous and one woody plant species in two consecutive years across Europe, we observed significant shifts in their flowering phenology, being more pronounced for spring-flowering species (6-17 days) compared to summer-flowering species (1-6 days). Moreover, we show that these data are suitable to model large-scale relationships such as "Hopkins' bioclimatic law" which quantifies the phenological delay with increasing elevation, latitude, and longitude. Here, we observe spatial shifts, ranging from -5 to 50 days per 1000 m elevation to latitudinal shifts ranging from -1 to 4 days per degree northwards, and longitudinal shifts ranging from -1 to 1 day per degree eastwards, depending on the species. Our findings show that the increasing volume of purely opportunistic plant observation data already provides reliable phenological information, and therewith can be used to support global, high-resolution phenology monitoring in the face of ongoing climate change.

The role of genotypic and climatic variation at the range edge: A case study in winegrapes

PREMISE

Changes in habitat suitability due to climate change are causing range shifts, with new habitat potentially available at cold range edges. We must predict these range shifts, but forecasters have limited knowledge of how genetic differences in plant physiological tolerances influence range shifts. Here, we focus on a major determinant of species ranges-physiological tolerance to extreme cold-to ask how warming over recent decades and genetic variation shape expansion across complex landscapes.

METHODS

We examined how genotypes vary in maximum cold tolerance from 9 years of cold hardiness data across 18 genotypes from 13 sites, using winegrapes (Vitis vinifera subsp. vinifera) as a case study. Combining a Bayesian hierarchical dose-response model with gridded climate data, we then project changes in climatic suitability near winegrapes' current cold range-edge between 1949 and 2016.

RESULTS

Plants increased maximum cold hardiness non-linearly with decreasing air temperature (maximum cold hardiness: -23.6°C), but with substantial (by 2°C) variation across genotypes. Our results suggest, since the 1980s, decreasing freeze injury risk has made conditions more favorable for all genotypes at the cold range-edge, but conditions remained more favorable for more cold hardy genotypes and in warmer areas. There was substantial spatial variation in habitat suitability, with the majority of suitably warm habitat located in a narrow north-south oriented strip.

CONCLUSIONS

We highlight the importance of genotypic differences in physiological tolerances when assessing range shift potential with climate change. Habitat improvements were unevenly distributed over the spatially complex landscape, though, emphasizing the importance of dispersal in range expansion.

Seasonal Activity of Adult Ticks Ixodes persulcatus (Acari, Ixodidae) in the North-West of the Distribution Area

The taiga tick Ixodes persulcatus (Schulze, 1930) (Acari, Ixodidae) is the main vector of the tick-borne encephalitis virus and one of the most widespread species of ixodid ticks in the Palaearctic. In this paper, we present long-term data on the seasonal activity of adult ticks in the north-west of their distribution. The seasonal activity of Ixodes persulcatus was studied from 1982 to 1990 and from 2012 to 2023 in the middle taiga subzone of Karelia (N62.0697, E33.961). In the study area, adult ticks I. persulcatus demonstrate a pronounced spring-summer activity with a unimodal curve of abundance change. A comparison of the monitoring data from the 1980s and the 2010s showed a significant increase in the abundance of I. persulcatus in the study area. A tendency towards an earlier start of the tick activity, as compared to the 1980s, is now being observed.

Negative density-dependence buffers against mismatch-induced population decline in the Sinai baton blue butterfly

Phenological mismatches caused by climate change pose a major threat to global biodiversity, yet relatively few studies have reported population declines resulting from mismatch. It has been hypothesised that density effects may underlie this lack of observed responses by buffering against mismatch-induced population decline. We developed an individual-based model of the critically endangered Sinai baton blue butterfly (Pseudophilotes sinaicus) and its hostplant Sinai thyme (Thymus decussatus), parameterised using real field data, to test this hypothesis. Our model showed that the baton blue experiences demographic consequences under only 5 days of phenological mismatch, but that this threshold was increased to 14 days with the inclusion of density-dependent juvenile mortality. The inclusion of density effects also led to the replication of population cycles observed in nature, supporting the ability of our model to accurately represent the baton blue's ecology. These results add to a growing body of literature suggesting that density effects may underlie the observed lack of demographic responses to mismatch in wild populations. However, these buffers may be short-lived in extreme mismatch scenarios, providing a false sense of security against a looming threat of population collapse.

Little directional change in the timing of Arctic spring phenology over the past 25 years

With the global change in climate, the Arctic has been pinpointed as the region experiencing the fastest rates of change. As a result, Arctic biological responses-such as shifts in phenology-are expected to outpace those at lower latitudes. 15 years ago, a decade-long dataset from Zackenberg in High Arctic Greenland revealed rapid rates of phenological change.1 To explore how the timing of spring phenology has developed since, we revisit the Zackenberg time series on flowering plants, arthropods, and birds. Drawing on the full 25-year period of 1996-2020, we find little directional change in the timing of events despite ongoing climatic change. We attribute this finding to a shift in the temporal patterns of climate conditions, from previous directional change to current high inter-annual variability. Additionally, some taxa appear to have reached the limits of their phenological responses, resulting in a leveling off in their phenological responses in warm years. Our findings demonstrate the importance of long-term monitoring of taxa from across trophic levels within the community, allowing for detecting shifts in sensitivities and responses and thus for updated inference in the light of added information.

Photoperiod effects in a freshwater community: Amphibian larvae develop faster and zooplankton abundance increases under an early-season photoperiod

Organisms that shift their phenologies in response to global warming will experience novel photic environments, as photoperiod (daylength) continues to follow the same annual cycle. How different organisms respond to novel photoperiods could result in phenological mismatches and altered interspecific interactions. We conducted an outdoor mesocosm experiment exposing green frog (Rana clamitans) larvae, gray treefrog (Hyla versicolor) larvae, phytoplankton, periphyton, and zooplankton to a three-month shift in photoperiod: an early-season photoperiod (simulating April) and a late-season photoperiod (simulating July). We manipulated photoperiod by covering and uncovering tanks with clear or light-blocking lids to mimic realistic changes in daylength. We assessed amphibian life history traits and measured phytoplankton, periphyton, and zooplankton abundances. Green frog larvae and gray treefrog metamorphs were more developed under the early-season photoperiod. Gray treefrog total length was also reduced, but photoperiod did not affect green frog total length. Although phytoplankton and periphyton abundances were not affected by photoperiod, copepod nauplii were in greater abundance under the early-season photoperiod. Overall, this simplified aquatic community did not exhibit significant changes to structure when exposed to a three-month shift in photoperiod. Temperate amphibians that breed earlier in the year may develop faster, which may have long-term costs to post-metamorphic growth and performance. Asynchronous shifts in zooplankton abundances in response to altered photoperiods could subsequently affect freshwater community structure. While photoperiod has been shown to individually affect freshwater organisms, our study using replicated outdoor wetland communities shows that the comprehensive effects of photoperiod may be less important than other cues such as temperature and precipitation.

Evolutionary constraints mediate extinction risk under climate change

Mounting evidence suggests that rapid evolutionary adaptation may rescue some organisms from the impacts of climate change. However, evolutionary constraints might hinder this process, especially when different aspects of environmental change generate antagonistic selection on genetically correlated traits. Here, we use individual-based simulations to explore how genetic correlations underlying the thermal physiology of ectotherms might influence their responses to the two major components of climate change-increases in mean temperature and thermal variability. We found that genetic correlations can influence population dynamics under climate change, with declines in population size varying three-fold depending on the type of correlation present. Surprisingly, populations whose thermal performance curves were constrained by genetic correlations often declined less rapidly than unconstrained populations. Our results suggest that accurate forecasts of the impact of climate change on ectotherms will require an understanding of the genetic architecture of the traits under selection.

Stable pollination service in a generalist high Arctic community despite the warming climate

Insects provide key pollination services in most terrestrial biomes, but this service depends on a multistep interaction between insect and plant. An insect needs to visit a flower, receive pollen from the anthers, move to another conspecific flower, and finally deposit the pollen on a receptive stigma. Each of these steps may be affected by climate change, and focusing on only one of them (e.g., flower visitation) may miss important signals of change in service provision. In this study, we combine data on visitation, pollen transport, and single-visit pollen deposition to estimate functional outcomes in the high Arctic plant-pollinator network of Zackenberg, Northeast Greenland, a model system for global warming-associated impacts in pollination services. Over two decades of rapid climate warming, we sampled the network repeatedly: in 1996, 1997, 2010, 2011, and 2016. Although the flowering plant and insect communities and their interactions varied substantially between years, as expected based on highly variable Arctic weather, there was no detectable directional change in either the structure of flower-visitor networks or estimated pollen deposition. For flower-visitor networks compiled over a single week, species phenologies caused major within-year variation in network structure despite consistency across years. Weekly networks for the middle of the flowering season emerged as especially important because most pollination service can be expected to be provided by these large, highly nested networks. Our findings suggest that pollination ecosystem service in the high Arctic is remarkably resilient. This resilience may reflect the plasticity of Arctic biota as an adaptation to extreme and unpredictable weather. However, most pollination service was contributed by relatively few fly taxa (Diptera: Spilogona sanctipauli and Drymeia segnis [Muscidae] and species of Rhamphomyia [Empididae]). If these key pollinators are negatively affected by climate change, network structure and the pollination service that depends on it would be seriously compromised.

Ecological traits explain long-term phenological trends in solitary bees

Across taxa, the timing of life-history events (phenology) is changing in response to warming temperatures. However, little is known about drivers of variation in phenological trends among species. We analysed 168 years of museum specimen and sighting data to evaluate the patterns of phenological change in 70 species of solitary bees that varied in three ecological traits: diet breadth (generalist or specialist), seasonality (spring, summer or fall) and nesting location (above-ground or below-ground). We estimated changes in onset, median, end and duration of each bee species' annual activity (flight duration) using quantile regression. To determine whether ecological traits could explain phenological trends, we compared average trends across species groups that differed in a single trait. We expected that specialist bees would be constrained by their host plants' phenology and would show weaker phenological change than generalist species. We expected phenological advances in spring and delays in summer and fall. Lastly, we expected stronger shifts in above-ground versus below-ground nesters. Across all species, solitary bees have advanced their phenology by 0.43 days/decade. Since 1970, this advancement has increased fourfold to 1.62 days/decade. Solitary bees have also lengthened their flight period by 0.44 days/decade. Seasonality and nesting location explained variation in trends among species. Spring- and summer-active bees tended to advance their phenology, whereas fall-active bees tended to delay. Above-ground nesting species experienced stronger advances than below-ground nesting bees in spring; however, the opposite was true in summer. Diet breadth was not associated with patterns of phenological change. Our study has two key implications. First, an increasing activity period of bees across the flight season means that bee communities will potentially provide pollination services for a longer period of time during the year. And, since phenological trends in solitary bees can be explained by some ecological traits, our study provides insight into mechanisms underpinning population viability of insect pollinators in a changing world.

Current and lagged climate affects phenology across diverse taxonomic groups

The timing of life events (phenology) can be influenced by climate. Studies from around the world tell us that climate cues and species' responses can vary greatly. If variation in climate effects on phenology is strong within a single ecosystem, climate change could lead to ecological disruption, but detailed data from diverse taxa within a single ecosystem are rare. We collated first sighting and median activity within a high-elevation environment for plants, insects, birds, mammals and an amphibian across 45 years (1975-2020). We related 10 812 phenological events to climate data to determine the relative importance of climate effects on species' phenologies. We demonstrate significant variation in climate-phenology linkage across taxa in a single ecosystem. Both current and prior climate predicted changes in phenology. Taxa responded to some cues similarly, such as snowmelt date and spring temperatures; other cues affected phenology differently. For example, prior summer precipitation had no effect on most plants, delayed first activity of some insects, but advanced activity of the amphibian, some mammals, and birds. Comparing phenological responses of taxa at a single location, we find that important cues often differ among taxa, suggesting that changes to climate may disrupt synchrony of timing among taxa.

Warming reduced flowering synchrony and extended community flowering season in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau

The timing of phenological events is highly sensitive to climate change, and may influence ecosystem structure and function. Although changes in flowering phenology among species under climate change have been reported widely, how species-specific shifts will affect phenological synchrony and community-level phenology patterns remains unclear. We conducted a manipulative experiment of warming and precipitation addition and reduction to explore how climate change affected flowering phenology at the species and community levels in an alpine meadow on the eastern Tibetan Plateau. We found that warming advanced the first and last flowering times differently and with no consistent shifts in flowering duration among species, resulting in the entire flowering period of species emerging earlier in the growing season. Early-flowering species were more sensitive to warming than mid- and late-flowering species, thereby reducing flowering synchrony among species and extending the community-level flowering season. However, precipitation and its interactions with warming had no significant effects on flowering phenology. Our results suggest that temperature regulates flowering phenology from the species to community levels in this alpine meadow community, yet how species shifted their flowering timing and duration in response to warming varied. This species-level divergence may reshape flowering phenology in this alpine plant community. Decreasing flowering synchrony among species and the extension of community-level flowering seasons under warming may alter future trophic interactions, with cascading consequences to community and ecosystem function.

Timing of a plant-herbivore interaction alters plant growth and reproduction

Phenological shifts have the potential to change species interactions, but relatively few studies have used experimental manipulations to examine the effects of variation in timing of an interspecific interaction across a series of life stages of a species. Although previous experimental studies have examined the consequences of phenological timing in plant-herbivore interactions for both plants and their herbivores, less is known about their effects on subsequent plant reproduction. Here, we conducted an experiment to determine how shifts in the phenological timing of monarch (Danaus plexippus) larval herbivory affected milkweed (Asclepias fascicularis) host plant performance, including effects on growth and subsequent effects on flower and seed pod phenology and production. We found that variation in the timing of herbivory affected both plant growth and reproduction, with measurable effects several weeks to several months after herbivory ended. The timing of herbivory had qualitatively different effects on vegetative and reproductive biomass: early-season herbivory had the strongest effects on plant size, whereas late-season herbivory had the strongest effects on the production of viable seeds. These results show that phenological shifts in herbivory can have persistent and qualitatively different effects on different life stages across the season.

Predicting the distribution of plant associations under climate change: A case study on Larix gmelinii in China

Association is the basic unit of plant community classification. Exploring the distribution of plant associations can help improve our understanding of biodiversity conservation. Different associations depend on different habitats and studying the association level is important for ecological restoration, regional ecological protection, regulating the ecological balance, and maintaining biodiversity. However, previous studies have only focused on suitable distribution areas for species and not on the distribution of plant associations. Larix gmelinii is a sensitive and abundant species that occurs along the southern margin of the Eurasian boreal forests, and its distribution is closely related to permafrost. In this study, 420 original plots of L. gmelinii forests were investigated. We used a Maxent model and the ArcGIS software to project the potential geographical distribution of L. gmelinii associations in the future (by 2050 and 2070) according to the climate scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. We used the multi-classification logistic regression analysis method to obtain the response of the suitable area change for the L. gmelinii alliance and associations to climate change under different climate scenarios. Results revealed that temperature is the most crucial factor affecting the distribution of L. gmelinii forests and most of its associations under different climate scenarios. Suitable areas for each association type are shrinking by varying degrees, especially due to habitat loss at high altitudes in special terrains. Different L. gmelinii associations should have different management measures based on the site conditions, composition structure, growth, development, and renewal succession trends. Subsequent research should consider data on biological factors to obtain more accurate prediction results.

Climate warming leads to advanced fruit development period of temperate woody species but divergent changes in its length

Climate warming has significantly altered the phenology of plants in recent decades. However, in contrast to the widely reported warming-induced extension of vegetative growing season, the response of fruit development period (FDP) from flowering to fruiting remains largely unexplored, particularly for woody plants. Analyzing >560,000 in situ observations of both flowering and fruiting dates for six temperate woody species across 2958 European phenological observations sites during 1980-2013, we found that in all species both flowering and fruiting phenology, that is, the FDP, advanced with climate warming. However, the advancing rates of the two events were not necessarily equal for any given species, resulting in divergent changes in the length of FDP among species with climate warming. During 1980-2013, not only the temperature during FDP but also the forcing requirement for fruit development increased, both affecting the length of FDP. The shortened FDP was mainly due to elevated temperature, thus accelerating the accumulation of forcing, whereas the prolonged FDP was primarily caused by the substantial increase of the forcing requirement of fruiting, which could be fulfilled only in a longer time and thus slowed down the advance of fruiting. This study provides large-scale empirical evidence of warming-induced advances of FDP but divergent changes in its length in temperate woody species. Our findings demonstrate the contrasting reproductive phenological strategies among temperate woody species under the pressure of warming climate, contrary to the lengthening of vegetative growing season, which is by and largely similar with different woody species.

Phat Queens Emerge Fashionably Late: Body Size and Condition Predict Timing of Spring Emergence for Queen Bumble Bees

For insects, the timing of many life history events (phenology) depends on temperature cues. Body size is a critical mediator of insect responses to temperature, so may also influence phenology. The determinants of spring emergence of bumble bee queens are not well understood, but body size is likely important for several reasons. In fall, queens accumulate energy stores to fuel overwinter survival. Accumulation of fat stores prior to and depletion of fat stores during overwintering are likely size-dependent: larger queens can accumulate more lipids and have lower mass-specific metabolic rates. Therefore, larger queens and queens in relatively better condition may have delayed depletion of energy stores, allowing for later spring emergence. To test whether timing of spring emergence is associated with body size and condition, we captured 295 Bombus huntii queens in Laramie, WY, during the 2020 and 2021 growing seasons, weighed them, and measured intertegular width (a size metric unaffected by variation in feeding and hydration state). Early emerging queens were smaller than later emerging queens across years. Mass relative to intertegular width increased as the season progressed suggesting, as predicted, that body condition influences the timing of spring emergence for these crucial pollinators.

Heat of the moment: extreme heat poses a risk to bee-plant interactions and crop yields

Extreme heat events threaten the development, functioning, and success of bee pollinators and crops that rely on pollinators for high yields. While direct effects of extreme heat and climate warming have gained more attention, the indirect effects on bees and crops remain largely unexplored. Extreme heat can directly alter the nutritional value of floral rewards, which indirectly contributes to lower bee survival, development, and reproduction with implications for pollination. Phenological mismatches between bee activity and crop flowering are also expected. Heat-stressed crop plants with reduced floral rewards may reduce bee foraging and nesting, limiting pollination services. Understanding how extreme heat affects bee-crop interactions will be essential for resilient production of pollinator-dependent crops in this era of climate change.

Decline in the suitable habitat of dominant Abies species in response to climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region: insights from species distribution modelling

Reliable predictions of future distribution ranges of ecologically important species in response to climate change are required for developing effective management strategies. Here we used an ensemble modelling approach to predict the distribution of three important species of Abies namely, Abies pindrow, Abies spectabilis and Abies densa in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region under the current and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) and time periods of 2050 and 2090s. A correlative ensemble model using presence/absence data of the three Abies species and 22 environmental variables, including 19 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables, from known distributions was built to predict the potential current and future distribution of these species. The individual models used to build the final ensemble performed well and provided reliable results for both the current and future distribution of all three species. For A. pindrow, precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) was the most important environmental variable with 83.3% contribution to model output while temperature seasonality (Bio4) and annual mean diurnal range (Bio2) were the most important variables for A. spectabilis and A. densa with 48.4% and 46.1% contribution to final model output, respectively. Under current climatic conditions, the ensemble models projected a total suitable habitat of about 433,003 km², 790,837 km² and 676,918 km² for A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa, respectively, which is approximately 10.36%, 18.91% and 16.91% of the total area of Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Projections of habitat suitability under future climate scenarios for all the shared socioeconomic pathways showed a reduction in potentially suitable habitats with a maximum overall loss of approximately 14% of the total suitable area of A. pindrow under SSP 8.5 by 2090. A decline in total suitable habitat is predicted to be 9.6% in A. spectabilis by 2090 under the SSP585 scenario while in A. densa 6.67% loss in the suitable area is expected by 2050 under the SSP585 scenario. Furthermore, there is no elevational change predicted in the case of A. pindrow while A. spectabilis is expected to show an upward shift by about 29 m per decade and A. densa is showing a downward shift at a rate of 11 m per decade. The results are interesting, and intriguing given the occurrence of these species across the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Thus, our study underscores the need for consideration of unexpected responses of species to climate change and formulation of strategies for better forest management and conservation of important conifer species, such as A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa.

Preceding Phenological Events Rather than Climate Drive the Variations in Fruiting Phenology in the Desert Shrub Nitraria tangutorum

Fruit setting and ripening are crucial in the reproductive cycle of many desert plant species, but their response to precipitation changes is still unclear. To clarify the response patterns, a long-term in situ water addition experiment with five treatments, namely natural precipitation (control) plus an extra 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of the local mean annual precipitation (145 mm), was conducted in a temperate desert in northwestern China. A whole series of fruiting events including the onset, peak, and end of fruit setting and the onset, peak, and end of fruit ripening of a locally dominant shrub, Nitraria tangutorum, were observed from 2012 to 2018. The results show that (1) water addition treatments had no significant effects on all six fruiting events in almost all years, and the occurrence time of almost all fruiting events remained relatively stable compared with leaf phenology and flowering phenology after the water addition treatments; (2) the occurrence times of all fruiting events were not correlated to the amounts of water added in the treatments; (3) there are significant inter-annual variations in each fruiting event. However, neither temperature nor precipitation play key roles, but the preceding flowering events drive their inter-annual variation.

Quantifying phenological diversity: a framework based on Hill numbers theory

Background

Despite the great concern triggered by the environmental crisis worldwide, the loss of temporal key functions and processes involved in biodiversity maintenance has received little attention. Species are restricted in their life cycles by environmental variables because of their physiological and behavioral properties; thus, the timing and duration of species' presence and their activities vary greatly between species within a community. Despite the ecological relevance of such variation, there is currently no measure that summarizes the key temporal aspects of biological diversity and allows comparisons of community phenological patterns. Here, we propose a measure that synthesizes variability of phenological patterns using the Hill numbers-based attribute diversity framework.

Methods

We constructed a new phenological diversity measure based on the aforementioned framework through pairwise overlapping distances, which was supplemented with wavelet analysis. The Hill numbers approach was chosen as an adequate way to define a set of diversity values of different order q, a parameter that determines the sensitivity of the diversity measure to abundance. Wavelet transform analysis was used to model continuous variables from incomplete data sets for different phenophases. The new measure, which we call Phenological Hill numbers (PD), considers the decouplings of phenophases through an overlapping area value between pairs of species within the community. PD was first tested through simulations with varying overlap in phenophase magnitude and intensity and varying number of species, and then by using one real data set.

Results

PD maintains the diversity patterns of order q as in any other diversity measure encompassed by the Hill numbers framework. Minimum PD values in the simulated data sets reflect a lack of differentiation in the phenological curves of the community over time; by contrast, the maximum PD values reflected the most diverse simulations in which phenological curves were equally distributed over time. PD values were consistent with the homogeneous distribution of the intensity and concurrence of phenophases over time, both in the simulated and the real data set.

Discussion

PD provides an efficient, readily interpretable and comparable measure that summarizes the variety of phenological patterns observed in ecological communities. PD retains the diversity patterns of order q characteristic of all diversity measures encompassed by the distance-based Hill numbers framework. In addition, wavelet transform analysis proved useful for constructing a continuous phenological curve. This methodological approach to quantify phenological diversity produces simple and intuitive values for the examination of phenological diversity and can be widely applied to any taxon or community's phenological traits.

Oscillation, synchrony, and multi-factor patterns between cereal aphids and parasitoid populations in southern Brazil

In different parts of the world, aphid populations and their natural enemies are influenced by landscapes and climate. In the Neotropical region, few long-term studies have been conducted, maintaining a gap for comprehension of the effect of meteorological variables on aphid population patterns and their parasitoids in field conditions. This study describes the general patterns of oscillation in cereal winged aphids and their parasitoids, selecting meteorological variables and evaluating their effects on these insects. Aphids exhibit two annual peaks, one in summer-fall transition and the other in winter-spring transition. For parasitoids, the highest annual peak takes place during winter and a second peak occurs in winter-spring transition. Temperature was the principal meteorological regulator of population fluctuation in winged aphids and parasitoids during the year. The favorable temperature range is not the same for aphids and parasitoids. For aphids, temperature increase resulted in population growth, with maximum positive effect at 25°C. Temperature also positively influenced parasitoid populations, but the growth was asymptotic around 20°C. Although rainfall showed no regulatory function on aphid seasonality, it influenced the final number of insects over the year. The response of aphids and parasitoids to temperature has implications for trophic compatibility and regulation of their populations. Such functions should be taken into account in predictive models.

Temperature and nutrient conditions modify the effects of phenological shifts in predator-prey communities

While there is mounting evidence indicating that the relative timing of predator and prey phenologies shapes the outcome of trophic interactions, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of how important the environmental context (e.g. abiotic conditions) is for shaping this relationship. Environmental conditions not only frequently drive shifts in phenologies, but they can also affect the very same processes that mediate the effects of phenological shifts on species interactions. Thus, identifying how environmental conditions shape the effects of phenological shifts is key to predict community dynamics across a heterogenous landscape and how they will change with ongoing climate change in the future. Here I tested how environmental conditions shape effects of phenological shifts by experimentally manipulating temperature, nutrient availability, and relative phenologies in two predator-prey freshwater systems (mole salamander- bronze frog vs dragonfly larvae-leopard frog). This allowed me to (1) isolate the effect of phenological shifts and different environmental conditions, (2) determine how they interact, and (3) how consistent these patterns are across different species and environments. I found that delaying prey arrival dramatically increased predation rates, but these effects were contingent on environmental conditions and predator system. While both nutrient addition and warming significantly enhanced the effect of arrival time, their effect was qualitatively different across systems: Nutrient addition enhanced the positive effect of early arrival in the dragonfly-leopard frog system, while warming enhanced the negative effect of arriving late in the salamander-bronze frog system. Predator responses varied qualitatively across predator-prey systems. Only in the system with strong gape-limitation were predators (salamanders) significantly affected by prey arrival time and this effect varied with environmental context. Correlations between predator and prey demographic rates suggest that this was driven by shifts in initial predator-prey size ratios and a positive feedback between size-specific predation rates and predator growth rates. These results highlight the importance of accounting for temporal and spatial correlation of local environmental conditions and gape-limitation in predator-prey systems when predicting the effects of phenological shifts and climate change on predator-prey systems.

Alternative Nesting Strategies of Polistine Wasps in a Subtropical Locale

Phylogenetic studies suggest that historically all paper wasps (Vespidae: Polistinae) in North America have tropical origins, but some species have adapted to survive temperate conditions. Subtropical climates, which are intermediate between temperate and tropical, allow a unique opportunity to study ancestral traits which can be retained or lost within populations, and ultimately elucidate the process of social wasp evolution. We investigated the phenology of paper wasps at study sites in subtropical Baton Rouge, USA, through nest searching and monitoring of nest parameters throughout the warm season (March-October). Across the year, two periods of nest initiation occurred: from March-May (early season nests, i.e., before the summer solstice), and from July-September (late season nests, after the solstice). We observed 240 Polistes nests from six species, of which 50.8% were initiated in early season and 49.2% in late season. In contrast, Mischocyttarus mexicanus rarely built late season nests and had longer early season colony duration than Polistes bellicosus and P. dorsalis, which built more nests in the late season than early. Across all species, late season nests had significantly shorter colony duration (~87.6 days) than early season nests (~166 days), and only P. bellicosus had fewer adults at peak population in late season nests than in early season nests. Results indicate both a bivoltine colony cycle in Polistes of subtropical climates, as well as differences in nesting strategies between genera.

Shifting seasonal patterns of water availability: ecosystem responses to an unappreciated dimension of climate change

Seasonal patterns of water availability can differ dramatically among ecosystems, with well-known consequences for ecosystem structure and functioning. Less appreciated is that climate change can shift the seasonality of water availability (e.g. to wetter springs, drier summers), resulting in both subtle and profound ecological impacts. Here we (1) review evidence that the seasonal availability of water is being altered in ecosystems worldwide, (2) explore several mechanisms potentially driving these changes, and (3) highlight the breadth of ecological consequences resulting from shifts in the seasonality of water availability. We conclude that seasonal patterns of water availability are changing globally, but in regionally specific ways requiring more rigorous and nuanced assessments of ecosystem vulnerability as well as the ecological consequences.

A Mechanistic Framework for Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on the Link Between Flowering and Fruiting Phenology

Phenological shifts are a widely studied consequence of climate change. Little is known, however, about certain critical phenological events, nor about mechanistic links between shifts in different life-history stages of the same organism. Among angiosperms, flowering times have been observed to advance with climate change, but, whether fruiting times shift as a direct consequence of shifting flowering times, or respond differently or not at all to climate change, is poorly understood. Yet, shifts in fruiting could alter species interactions, including by disrupting seed dispersal mutualisms. In the absence of long-term data on fruiting phenology, but given extensive data on flowering, we argue that an understanding of whether flowering and fruiting are tightly linked or respond independently to environmental change can significantly advance our understanding of how fruiting phenologies will respond to warming climates. Through a case study of biotically and abiotically dispersed plants, we present evidence for a potential functional link between the timing of flowering and fruiting. We then propose general mechanisms for how flowering and fruiting life history stages could be functionally linked or independently driven by external factors, and we use our case study species and phenological responses to distinguish among proposed mechanisms in a real-world framework. Finally, we identify research directions that could elucidate which of these mechanisms drive the timing between subsequent life stages. Understanding how fruiting phenology is altered by climate change is essential for all plant species but is particularly critical to sustaining the large numbers of plant species that rely on animal-mediated dispersal, as well as the animals that rely on fruit for sustenance.

Get up early: Revealing behavioral responses of sandeel to ocean warming using commercial catch data

Warming of the oceans and shifts in the timing of annual key events are likely to cause behavioral changes in species showing a high degree of site fidelity. While this is well studied in terrestrial systems, there are fewer examples from the marine environment. Sandeel (Ammodytes marinus) is a small eel-shaped teleost fish with strong behavioral attachment to sandy habitats in which they are buried from late summer through winter. When spring arrives, the sandeel emerge to feed during the day for several of months before returning to the sand for overwintering refuge.Using fisheries data from the North Sea, we investigated whether catch rates reflect the timing of emergence and if seasonal patterns are related to temperature and primary production.Catch per unit effort (CPUE) was used to describe sandeel emergence. We developed indicators of the relative timing of the emergence from the winter sand refuge and the subsequent growth period. Different modeling approaches were used to investigate the relationship with bottom temperature and primary production.Variation in emergence behavior was correlated with variation in sea bottom temperature. Warmer years were characterized by earlier emergence. Significant warming over the last three decades was evident in all sandeel habitats in the North Sea throughout most of their adult life history, though no net shift in the phenology of emergence was detected. Minimum temperature during spring was a better predictor of emergence behavior than, for example, degree days.This study emphasizes how temperature-induced changes in behavior may have implications for predators and fisheries of sandeel. The method can be applied to other species for which the timing of exploitation (i.e., fisheries) and species life history are well matched.

Warm-night temperature alters paternal allocation strategy in a North temperate-zone butterfly

Warming temperatures are greatly impacting wild organisms across the globe. Some of the negative impacts of climate change can be mitigated behaviorally, for example, by changes in habitat and oviposition site choice. Temperatures are reportedly warming faster at night than during the day, yet studies assessing the impacts of increasing night temperature are rare. We used the Finnish Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) as study species and exposed adult butterflies of both sexes to warmer night conditions. Under a seminatural outdoor enclosure, we assessed whether females base their oviposition choices primarily on habitat site characteristics (open, suggestive of dry meadows, versus covered by a coarse canopy, suggestive of pastures) or on plant condition (dry vs. lush), and if their choice is altered by the thermal conditions experienced at night. As exposure to warmer environmental conditions is expected to increase resting metabolic rate and potentially reduce life expectancy, we further assessed the fitness implications of warm-night temperatures. We found that females prefer open sites for oviposition and that females do not switch their oviposition strategy based on the thermal conditions they experienced at night prior to the reproductive event. Exposure to warm nights did not influence female lifespan, but the egg hatching success of their offspring was reduced. In addition, we found that males exposed to warm nights sired larger clutches with higher hatching rate. As warm-night exposure reduced male lifespan, this may imply a switch in male resource allocation strategy toward increased offspring quality. The present work adds on to the complex implications of climate warming and highlights the importance of the often-neglected role of males in shaping offspring performance.

Demographic Consequences of Phenological Shifts in Response to Climate Change

When a phenological shift affects a demographic vital rate such as survival or reproduction, the altered vital rate may or may not have population-level consequences. We review the evidence that climate change affects populations by shifting species’ phenologies, emphasizing the importance of demographic life-history theory. We find many examples of phenological shifts having both positive and negative consequences for vital rates. Yet, few studies link phenological shifts to changes in vital rates known to drive population dynamics, especially in plants. When this link is made, results are largely consistent with life-history theory: Phenological shifts have population-level consequences when they affect survival in longer-lived organisms and reproduction in shorter-lived organisms. However, there are just as many cases in which demographic mechanisms buffer population growth from phenologically induced changes in vital rates. We provide recommendations for future research aiming to understand the complex relationships among climate, phenology, and demography, which will help to elucidate the extent to which phenological shifts actually alter population persistence.

Characterizing the impact of high temperature during grain filling on phytohormone levels, enzyme activity and metabolic profiles of an early indica rice variety

Global warming results in high temperature stress (HTS), which presents severe challenges worldwide for modern agricultural production and will have significant impacts on the yield and quality of crops. Accumulation of photosynthetic products, activity of enzymes involved in sucrose-starch metabolism, phytohormone levels and metabolic profiling using LC-MS were analysed in the flag leaves and/or developing grains subjected to HTS during the grain-filling stage of an indica rice. HTS induced significant yield loss and reduced the grain quality, with lower amylose content. HTS reduced photosynthetic product accumulation in flag leaves and reduced starch accumulation in developing grains, compared to growth under normal temperatures. The activity of enzymes related to sucrose-starch metabolism were dis-regulated in developing grains grown under high temperature (HT). Moreover, phytohormone homeostasis in flag leaves and developing grains was also dramatically disturbed by HT. Metabolic profiling detected many metabolites with remarkably different relative fold abundances at different time points in the developing grain at HT versus normal temperatures, these metabolites were enriched in several HTS response pathways. The change in phytohormone ratio and auxin level might be associated with the reduction in photosynthetic products and their translocation, and ultimately with reduced starch accumulation in the developing grain. The detected metabolites might have different roles in response to the HTS in developing grain at different development stages. These results provide a theoretical reference and basis for future rice production towards higher quality and yield when grown under HTS.

Siberian plants shift their phenology in response to climate change

Siberia has undergone dramatic climatic changes due to global warming in recent decades. Yet, the ecological responses to these climatic changes are still poorly understood due to a lack of data. Here, we use a unique data set from the Russian 'Chronicles of Nature' network to analyse the long-term (1976-2018) phenological shifts in leaf out, flowering, fruiting and senescence of 67 common Siberian plant species. We find that Siberian boreal forest plants advanced their early season (leaf out and flowering) and mid-season (fruiting) phenology by -2.2, -0.7 and -1.6 days/decade, and delayed the onset of senescence by 1.6 days/decade during this period. These mean values, however, are subject to substantial intraspecific variability, which is partly explained by the plants' growth forms. Trees and shrubs advanced leaf out and flowering (-3.1 and -3.3. days/decade) faster than herbs (-1 day/decade), presumably due to the more direct exposure of leaf and flower buds to ambient air for the woody vegetation. For senescence, we detected a reverse pattern: stronger delays in herbs (2.1 days/decade) than in woody plants (1.0-1.2 days/decade), presumably due to the stronger effects of autumn frosts on the leaves of herbs. Interestingly, the timing of fruiting in all four growth forms advanced at similar paces, from 1.4 days/decade in shrubs to 1.7 days/decade in trees and herbs. Our findings point to a strong, yet heterogeneous, response of Siberian plant phenology to recent global warming. Furthermore, the results highlight that species- and growth form-specific differences among study species could be used to identify plants particularly at risk of decline due to their low adaptive capacity or a loss of synchronization with important interaction partners.

Agrochemicals interact synergistically to increase bee mortality

Global concern over widely documented declines in pollinators^1-3 has led to the identification of anthropogenic stressors that, individually, are detrimental to bee populations^4-7. Synergistic interactions between these stressors could substantially amplify the environmental effect of these stressors and could therefore have important implications for policy decisions that aim to improve the health of pollinators^3,8,9. Here, to quantitatively assess the scale of this threat, we conducted a meta-analysis of 356 interaction effect sizes from 90 studies in which bees were exposed to combinations of agrochemicals, nutritional stressors and/or parasites. We found an overall synergistic effect between multiple stressors on bee mortality. Subgroup analysis of bee mortality revealed strong evidence for synergy when bees were exposed to multiple agrochemicals at field-realistic levels, but interactions were not greater than additive expectations when bees were exposed to parasites and/or nutritional stressors. All interactive effects on proxies of fitness, behaviour, parasite load and immune responses were either additive or antagonistic; therefore, the potential mechanisms that drive the observed synergistic interactions for bee mortality remain unclear. Environmental risk assessment schemes that assume additive effects of the risk of agrochemical exposure may underestimate the interactive effect of anthropogenic stressors on bee mortality and will fail to protect the pollinators that provide a key ecosystem service that underpins sustainable agriculture.

The Study of the Germination Dynamics of Plasmopara viticola Oospores Highlights the Presence of Phenotypic Synchrony With the Host

The plant disease onset is a complex event that occurs when the pathogen and the host encounter in a favorable environment. While the plant–pathogen interaction has been much investigated, little attention has been given to the phenological synchrony of the event, especially when both plant and pathogen overwinter, as in the case of grapevines and the downy mildew agent, the oomycete Plasmopara viticola. Oospores allow this obligate parasite to survive grapevine dormancy and, germinating, produce inoculum for primary infections. During overwintering, environmental factors influence the potential oospore germination. This study aimed at investigating the existence of synchrony between the pathogen and the host by identifying and quantifying the most important factors determining oospore maturation and germination and the relationship existing with grapevine phenology. Generalized linear models (GLM and GLMM) were used to analyze the germination dynamics of the oospores overwintered in controlled and field conditions and incubated in isothermal conditions, and oospore viability tests were carried out at different time points. Results showed that the most indicative parameter to describe the germination dynamics is the time spent by the oospores from the start of overwintering. The oospores overwintered in field showed phenological traits related to grapevine phenology not observed in controlled conditions. In particular, they completed the maturation period by the end of grapevine dormancy and germinated more rapidly at plant sprouting, when grapevine reaches susceptibility. Overall, the oospores proved to be able to modulate their behavior in close relationship with grapevine, showing a great adaptation to the host’s phenology.