Deciduous forest responses to temperature, precipitation, and drought imply complex climate change impacts

Temperature variations impacting leaf senescence initiation pathways alter leaf fall timing patterns in northern deciduous forests

Simulating the timing of leaf fall in large scale is crucial for accurate estimation of ecosystem carbon sequestration. However, the limited understanding of leaf senescence mechanisms often impedes the accuracy of simulation and prediction. In this study, we employed the advanced process-based models to fit remote sensing-derived end dates of the growing season (EOS) across deciduous broadleaf forests in the Northern Hemisphere, and revealed the spatial pattern associated with two leaf senescence pathways (i.e., either photoperiod- or temperature- initiated leaf senescence) and their potential effects on EOS prediction. The results show that the pixel-specific optimum models effectively fitted all EOS time series. Leaf senescence in 67.6 % and 32.4 % of pixels was initiated by shortening daylength and declining temperature, respectively. Shortening daylength triggered leaf senescence occurs mainly in areas with shorter summer daylength and/or warmer autumns, whereas declining temperature induced leaf senescence appears primarily in areas with longer summer daylength and/or colder autumns. The strong dependence of leaf senescence initiation cues on local temperature conditions implies that the ongoing increase in autumn temperature has the potential to alter the leaf senescence initiation, shifting from temperature cues to photoperiod signals. This shift would occur in 26.2-49.6 % of the areas where leaf senescence is initiated by declining temperature under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, while forest areas where leaf senescence is induced by shortening daylength may expand northward. The overall delaying of the currently predicted EOS would therefore slow down by 4.5-10.3 % under the two warming scenarios. This implies that the adaptive nature of plants will reduce the overestimation of changes in carbon exchange capacity between ecosystems and atmosphere. Our study offers novel insights into understanding the mechanism of leaf senescence and improving the estimation of autumn phenology and ecosystem carbon balance in the deciduous broadleaf forests.

Consistent time allocation fraction to vegetation green-up versus senescence across northern ecosystems despite recent climate change

Extended growing season lengths under climatic warming suggest increased time for plant growth. However, research has focused on climatic impacts to the timing or duration of distinct phenological events. Comparatively little is known about impacts to the relative time allocation to distinct phenological events, for example, the proportion of time dedicated to leaf growth versus senescence. We use multiple satellite and ground-based observations to show that, despite recent climate change during 2001 to 2020, the ratio of time allocated to vegetation green-up over senescence has remained stable [1.27 (± 0.92)] across more than 83% of northern ecosystems. This stability is independent of changes in growing season lengths and is caused by widespread positive relationships among vegetation phenological events; longer vegetation green-up results in longer vegetation senescence. These empirical observations were also partly reproduced by 13 dynamic global vegetation models. Our work demonstrates an intrinsic biotic control to vegetation phenology that could explain the timing of vegetation senescence under climate change.

Drought shortens subtropical understory growing season by advancing leaf senescence

Subtropical forests, recognized for their intricate vertical canopy stratification, exhibit high resistance to extreme drought. However, the response of leaf phenology to drought in the species-rich understory remains poorly understood. In this study, we constructed a digital camera system, amassing over 360,000 images through a 70% throughfall exclusion experiment, to explore the drought response of understory leaf phenology. The results revealed a significant advancement in understory leaf senescence phenology under drought, with 11.75 and 15.76 days for the start and end of the leaf-falling event, respectively. Pre-season temperature primarily regulated leaf development phenology, whereas soil water dominated the variability in leaf senescence phenology. Under drought conditions, temperature sensitivities for the end of leaf emergence decreased from -13.72 to -11.06 days °C-1, with insignificance observed for the start of leaf emergence. Consequently, drought treatment shortened both the length of the growing season (15.69 days) and the peak growth season (9.80 days) for understory plants. Moreover, this study identified diverse responses among intraspecies and interspecies to drought, particularly during the leaf development phase. These findings underscore the pivotal role of water availability in shaping understory phenology patterns, especially in subtropical forests.

Process-oriented models of leaf senescence are biased towards the mean: Impacts on model performance and future projections

The timing of leaf senescence in deciduous trees influences carbon uptake and the resources available for tree growth, defense, and reproduction. Therefore, simulated biosphere-atmosphere interactions and, eventually, estimates of the biospheric climate change mitigation potential are affected by the accuracy of process-oriented leaf senescence models. However, current leaf senescence models are likely to suffer from a bias towards the mean (BTM). This may lead to overly flat trends, whereby errors would increase with increasing difference from the average timing of leaf senescence, ultimately distorting model performance and projected future shifts. However, such effects of the BTM on model performance and future shifts have rarely been investigated. We analyzed >17 × 106 past dates and >49 × 106 future shifts of leaf senescence simulated by 21 process-oriented models that had been calibrated with >45,000 observations from Central Europe for three major European tree species. The surmised effects on model performance and future shifts occurred in all 21 models, revealing strong model-specific BTM. In general, the models performed only slightly better than a null model that just simulates the average timing of leaf senescence. While standard comparisons of model performance favored models with stronger BTM, future shifts of leaf senescence were smaller when projected by models with weaker BTM. Overall, the future shifts for 2090-2099 relative to 1990-1999 increased by an average of 13-14 days after correcting for the BTM. In conclusion, the BTM substantially affects simulations by state-of-the-art leaf senescence models, which compromises model comparisons and distorts projections of future shifts. Smaller shifts result from flatter trends associated with stronger BTM. Therefore, smaller shifts according to models with weaker BTM illustrate the considerable uncertainty in current leaf senescence projections. It is likely that state-of-the-art projections of future biosphere behavior under global change are distorted by erroneous leaf senescence models.

Satellite monitoring reveals short-term cumulative and time-lag effect of drought and heat on autumn photosynthetic phenology in subtropical vegetation

Comparing with the effect of the average climate change on vegetation phenology, the impacts of extreme climate events remain unclear, especially considering their characteristic cumulative and time-lag effects. Using solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) satellite records, we investigated the cumulative and time-lag effects of drought and heat events on photosynthesis, particularly for the end date of autumn photosynthesis (EOP), in subtropical vegetation in China. Our results showed a negative effect of drought on the delay of EOP, with the cumulative effect on 30.12% (maximum continuous dry days, CDD), 34.82% (dry days, DRD), and 26.14% (dry period, DSDI) of the study area and the general time-lag effect on 50.73% (maximum continuous dry days), 56.61% (dry days), and 47.55% (dry period) of the study area. The cumulative and lagged time were 1-3 months and 2-3 months, respectively. In contrast, the cumulative effect of heat on EOP was observed in 16.27% (warm nights, TN90P), 23.66% (moderate heat days, TX50P), and 19.19% (heavy heat days, TX90P) of the study area, with cumulative time of 1-3 months. The lagged time was 3-4 months, detected in 31.02% (warm nights), 45.86% (moderate heat days), and 36.52% (heavy heat days) of the study area. At the vegetation community level, drought and heat had relatively rapid impacts on EOP in the deciduous broadleaved forest, whereas evergreen forests and bushes responded to heat slowly and took a longer time. Our results revealed that drought and heat have short-term cumulative and time-lag effects on the EOP of subtropical vegetation in China, with varying effects among different vegetation types. These findings provide new insights into the effect of drought and heat on subtropical vegetation and confirm the need to consider these effects in the development of prediction models of autumn phenology for subtropical vegetation.

Advanced time-lagged effects of drought on global vegetation growth and its social risk in the 21st century

Extensive studies have demonstrated the restricting effect of past and present drought conditions on vegetation growth over the past three decades. However, the underlying mechanism of the impact of prior drought on vegetation growth - along with the magnitude of its impact over the rest of the 21st century - remains uncertain. Herein, we examined the evolution and characteristics of global vegetation growth and drought for both baseline (1982-2014) and future (2015-2100) periods under four representative pathways using the gross primary productivity (GPP) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index from the CMIP6. Further, we investigated the time-lagged effects of drought on vegetation growth and the intensity of population and economy exposure to drought by identifying drought-threatened areas under four emission scenarios. The results show that, at the end of the 21st century, the global terrestrial GPP will experience an increasing trend under four scenarios, especially in SSP5-8.5, with a growth rate of 0.032 kg C m-2/decade, which is 10 times higher than that in SSP1-2.6. From the SSP1-2.6 to the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the SPEI change rates are -0.03, -0.01, -0.017, and -0.018/decade, respectively, indicating that the intensity of global drought events will rise with increases in CO2 emissions. 28.3%, 24.7%, 30.4%, and 35% of global land exhibit downward mean time-lagged months in four scenarios, especially in the middle-high latitudes of the northern hemisphere (>45°N), indicating an advanced response of vegetation to drought. Nearly 8, 9.1, 12.9, and 11.5 billion people - valued at 94,138 (SSP1-2.6), 976,020 (SSP2-4.5), 526,595 (SSP3-7.0), and 204,728 (SSP5-8.5) billion US$, respectively - will be threatened by continuous drought. Globally, the population and economy exposure to moderate and extreme drought zones is larger, and the economic risk from extreme droughts is 8 times greater under the high emissions scenario than the low emissions scenario.

Spatiotemporal variation of cold requirements for leaf coloration and its environmental cues over the northern deciduous broadleaved forests

Evaluating the interactions between cold requirements for leaf coloration and environmental cues is crucial for understanding the mechanisms of leaf senescence and accurately predicting autumn phenology. Based on remote sensing-derived and ground-observed leaf coloration dates for deciduous broadleaf forests during 1981-2014, we determined location-specific cold requirements for autumn leaf coloration and assessed their spatiotemporal changes. Then, we revealed the major environmental cues of cold requirements and their spatial differentiation. Results show that cold requirements have nonsignificant trends during the past decades at 57.9% of pixels. The interannual variation of cold requirements was mainly influenced by growing-season accumulated temperature (GDDgs) at 35.8% of pixels and accumulated growing season index (AGSI) at 23.2% of pixels, but less affected by leaf unfolding and low precipitation index (LPI). The increase in GDDgs or AGSI may decrease cold requirements, and vice versa. The spatial differentiations of the effects of GDDgs and AGSI depend highly on local summer temperature among climatic classifications with similar humidity conditions. Specifically, the effects of GDDgs on cold requirements concentrated in humid regions with warmer summers, while that of AGSI mainly occurred in humid and winter dry regions with cooler summers. Higher summer temperatures would strengthen the effects of GDDgs and reduce the effects of AGSI on cold requirements. These findings deepen the understanding of the influences of environmental factors on leaf senescence progress and suggest that the shifts of factors affecting cold requirements under global warming may enlarge the uncertainty in predicting autumn leaf coloration dates.

Climate extremes drive the phenology of a dominant species in meadow steppe under gradual warming

Plant phenology in terrestrial ecosystems, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, is expected to change owing to the projected increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes in the context of global warming. Although such changes under mean climate change have been extensively reported in the literature, little is known about the impacts of climate extremes. In this study, climatic changes and their effects on plant phenology were characterized using long-term climatic and phenological data from the start and end of the growing season (SOS and EOS, respectively) from 2005 to 2020 for Stipa baicalensis, a dominant species in a temperate meadow steppe. The results showed that the temperature, including the mean and minimum temperatures, and extreme warm indices significantly increased; however, annual precipitation, and the frequency of extreme cold and precipitation events decreased. The SOS of S. baicalensis was initially earlier and later, whereas the EOS trended to be delayed. However, the growing season (LOS) was slightly prolonged. Compared with the indices under mean temperature, the pre-season (before SOS or EOS) minimum temperature dominantly affected SOS and EOS, whereas the mean and extreme precipitation slightly affected them. Furthermore, the findings showed that plant phenology responded to extreme temperatures quicker and stronger than mean temperatures. This study provides insight into how key extreme climatic factors could affect plant phenophases and improve and refine the phenological model. This could also be useful in enhancing grassland ecosystem management and sustainable development.

Effects of drought and climate factors on vegetation dynamics in Central Asia from 1982 to 2020

Ecological security and ecosystem stability in Central Asia depend heavily on the local vegetation. Vegetation dynamics and the response and hysteresis relationships to climate factors and drought on multiple scales over long time series in the region still need to be further explored. Using the net primary productivity (NPP) values as the vegetation change index of interest, in this study, we analyzed vegetation dynamics in Central Asia from 1982 to 2020 and assessed the responses and time lags of vegetation to climate factors and drought. The results showed that NPP gradually decreased from north to south and from east to west. Vegetation was distributed along both sides of the mountains. The temperatures rose from northeast to southwest, while precipitation gradually increased from southwest to northeast. The proportion of dry and wet years was as follows: normal (56.41%) > slightly dry (28.2%) > slightly humid (15.39%). Precipitation and drought conditions were positively correlated with NPP during the growing season, while temperature was negatively correlated with NPP. Increased spring temperature, precipitation, and drought conditions positively affected vegetation, while sustained summer temperature resulted in suppressed vegetation growth. Autumn vegetation was positively affected by temperature and drought, and precipitation was negatively correlated with autumn vegetation. Increasing winter temperatures promoted vegetation growth. The time lag between NPP and temperature gradually increased from northeast to southwest, and the time lag between NPP and precipitation gradually increased from south to north. Spring temperatures had the greatest beneficial impact on forestlands; summer climatic factors and drought had little effect on shrublands; the autumn climate exhibited small differences in its influence of each plant type; and winter temperatures had the greatest positive effect on grasslands. No time lag effect was found between any of the four vegetation types and precipitation. A one-month lag was found between cultivated lands and temperature; a two-month lag was found between forestlands and temperature; and a one-month lag was found between forestlands and drought and between shrublands and drought. The results can provide a scientific foundation for the sustainable development and management of ecosystems.

Spatiotemporal variation of autumn phenology responses to preseason drought and temperature in alpine and temperate grasslands in China

We investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and environmental controls of the end of the vegetation growing season (EOS) in autumn across the alpine and temperate grasslands of China from 2001 through 2020, focusing on whether the EOS is likely a "dryness effect" due to drought or a "coolness effect" caused by cold temperature in autumn. The results show that the EOS date is earlier (∼6 days earlier on average) in alpine grasslands than in temperate grasslands. During 2001-2020, a slight non-significant delay of 1.0 day/decade is observed for the regional averaged EOS, which is mostly induced by the delayed EOS in 64.4 % of the study region. Preseason temperature (1-2 months before the EOS) exerts a positive control on the EOS in most of the alpine grasslands and some regions of the eastern part of the temperate grasslands, while drought with a mean length of 3.2 months before the EOS exerts positive effects on the EOS in the central, southwestern, and western parts of the temperate grasslands and in the northeastern part of the alpine grasslands. The positive effects of temperature and drought are very likely phenomena reflecting that the EOS is the "coolness effect" associated with lower temperatures in autumn and the "dryness effect" due to drought, especially meteorological drought without consideration of soil moisture, in late summer and/or early autumn, respectively. Our findings are supported by an analysis of the spatial patterns of the cold degree days (CDD) and EOS sensitivity to the CDD. However, the negative effects of drought are also found in eastern temperate grasslands, likely caused by decreased temperature accompanied by increased moisture. The results presented here highlight the importance of incorporating the impacts of droughts on EOS variability, as well as their interactive effects with temperature, into current vegetation autumn phenology models for grasslands.

Warming delays but grazing advances leaf senescence of five plant species in an alpine meadow

Leaf senescence is the final stage in the life cycle of leaves and is critical to plants' fitness as well as to ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycling. To date, most understanding about the responses of leaf senescence to environmental changes has derived from research in forests, but the topic has been relatively neglected, especially under grazing conditions, in natural grasslands. We conducted a 3-year manipulative asymmetric warming with moderate grazing experiment to explore the responses of leaf senescence of five main species in an alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We found that warming prolonged leaf longevity through earlier leaf-out and later leaf senescence, and grazing prolonged it through a greater advance in leaf-out than first leaf coloration for all plants. Warming did not affect leaf nitrogen (N) content or N resorption efficiency (NRE), but grazing increased N content in coloring leaves for P. anserine and P. nivea and decreased NRE for K. humilis, P. anserine under no-warming, and for P. nivea under warming. The interactive effects of warming and grazing on leaf phenology and leaf traits depended on species identity and year. There were positive relationships between leaf-out and leaf senescence mainly derived from grazing, and positive relationships between NRE from old leaves and leaf senescence for three out of five plant species. Therefore, our results indicated that earlier leaf-out could result in earlier leaf senescence only under grazing, but depending on plant species. Delayed leaf coloring increased NRE from old leaves for some plant species measured under warming and grazing. Our results suggested that alpine plants may develop strategies to adapt to warming and grazing to assimilate more carbon through prolonged leaf longevity rather than increased NRE through earlier leaf coloring in the alpine meadow.

Autumn phenology of tree species in China is associated more with climate than with spring phenology and phylogeny

Both biotic and abiotic factors restrict changes in autumn phenology, yet their effects remain ambiguous, which hinders the accurate prediction of phenology under future climate change. In this study, based on the phenological records of 135 tree species at ten sites in China during 1979-2018, we first investigated the effects of climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, insolation and wind speed) and spring phenology on interannual changes in leaf coloring date (LCD) with the partial correlation analysis, and assessed the relative importance of phylogeny and native climate to LCD differences among species by using multivariate regression and phylogenetic eigenvector regression approach. The results showed that the effects of climate factors on interannual changes in LCD were more significant than spring phenology. In general, temperature played a more important role in cold regions (e.g. the northeast region), while the control of insolation on LCD was stronger in the warmer and wetter regions (e.g. the north, east and southwest regions). In addition, the effects of precipitation and wind speed were more evident in arid regions (e.g. the northwest region). We also found considerable effects of both native climate and phylogeny on the LCD differences among species, despite the contribution of native climate being almost 2~5 times greater than that of the phylogeny. Our findings confirmed and quantified the combined effects of climate, spring phenology and phylogeny on the autumn phenology of plants, which could help better understand the driving factors and influencing mechanism of plant phenology and provide a reference for the calibration and optimization of phenological models.

Spatiotemporal dynamic of subtropical forest carbon storage and its resistance and resilience to drought in China

Subtropical forests are rich in vegetation and have high photosynthetic capacity. China is an important area for the distribution of subtropical forests, evergreen broadleaf forests (EBFs) and evergreen needleleaf forests (ENFs) are two typical vegetation types in subtropical China. Forest carbon storage is an important indicator for measuring the basic characteristics of forest ecosystems and is of great significance for maintaining the global carbon balance. Drought can affect forest activity and may even lead to forest death and the stability characteristics of different forest ecosystems varied after drought events. Therefore, this study used meteorological data to simulate the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the Biome-BGC model to simulate two types of forest carbon storage to quantify the resistance and resilience of EBF and ENF to drought in the subtropical region of China. The results show that: 1) from 1952 to 2019, the interannual drought in subtropical China showed an increasing trend, with five extreme droughts recorded, of which 2011 was the most severe one; 2) the simulated average carbon storage of the EBF and ENF during 1985-2019 were 130.58 t·hm^-2 and 78.49 t·hm^-2, respectively. The regions with higher carbon storage of EBF were mainly concentrated in central and southeastern subtropics, where those of ENF mainly distributed in the western subtropic; 3) The median of resistance of EBF was three times higher than that of ENF, indicating the EBF have stronger resistance to extreme drought than ENF. Moreover, the resilience of two typical forest to 2011 extreme drought and the continuous drought events during 2009 - 2011 were similar. The results provided a scientific basis for the response of subtropical forests to drought, and indicating that improve stand quality or expand the plantation of EBF may enhance the resistance to drought in subtropical China, which provided certain reference for forest protection and management under the increasing frequency of drought events in the future.

Air or soil temperature matters the responses of alpine plants in biomass accumulation to climate warming

Climate change has substantially affected plant phenology and growth on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), while it remains unclear how plant phenology and growth impact the plant biomass under climate change. We used long-term data (from 1997 to 2017) for four plants, Stipa purpurea, Artemisia scoparia, Kobresia humilis and Astragalus laxmannii in the alpine meadow to examine the relationships among multiple climate factors, vegetative growth, reproductive growth, intrinsic growth rate and biomass. The order of returning to green determines the growth strategies of different plants, the earliest plants to green (p < 0.05) (e.g., Stipa purpurea and Artemisia scoparia) would choose the strategy of vegetative growth (p < 0.05); the earlier plants (p < 0.05) (e.g., Kobresia humilis) would be regulated by both vegetative growth and reproductive growth (p < 0.05); while the latest plant to green (p < 0.05) such as Astragalus laxmannii, would choose intrinsic growth rate rather than growing season (P < 0.05). Temperature was the most important drivers for key phenological phases and growth patterns of four species, different factors play a role in different stages of the growth period, i.e., in the early and late stage is the soil temperature, while in the middle stage is the average temperature or the maximum temperature, and all the optimum thresholds were >30 day. These findings provide the in-situ evidences of long-term changes in phenology and its associated growth on the biomass of alpine plants on the QTP in the era of climate change.

Future land-use competition constrains natural climate solutions

Natural climate solutions (NCS) are an essential complement to climate mitigation and have been increasingly incorporated into international mitigation strategies. Yet, with the ongoing population growth, allocating natural areas for NCS may compete with other socioeconomic priorities, especially urban development and food security. Here, we projected the impacts of land-use competition incurred by cropland and urban expansion on the climate mitigation potential of NCS. We mapped the areas available for implementing 9 key NCS strategies and estimated their climate change mitigation potential. Then, we overlaid these areas with future cropland and urban expansion maps projected under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (2020-2100) and calculated the resulting mitigation potential loss of each selected NCS strategy. Our results estimate a substantial reduction, 0.3-2.8 GtCO₂ yr^-1 or 4-39 %, in NCS mitigation potential, of which cropland expansion for fulfilling future food demand is the primary cause. This impact is particularly severe in the tropics where NCS hold the most abundant mitigation potential. Our findings highlight immediate actions prioritized to tropical areas are important to best realize NCS and are key to developing realistic and sustainable climate policies.

A Global review of cumulative effects assessments of disturbances on forest ecosystems

This paper reviews trends in the academic literature on cumulative effects assessment (CEA) of disturbance on forest ecosystems to advance research in the broader context of impact assessments. Disturbance is any distinct spatiotemporal event that disrupts the structure and composition of an ecosystem affecting resource availability. We developed a Python package to automate search term selection, write search strategies, reduce bias and improve the efficient and effective selection of articles from academic databases and grey literature. We identified 148 peer-reviewed literature published between 1986 and 2022 and conducted an inductive and deductive thematic analysis of the results. Our findings revealed that CEA studies are concentrated in the global north, with most publications from authors affiliated with government agencies in the USA and Canada. Methodological and analytical approaches are less interdisciplinary but mainly quantitative and expert-driven, involving modeling the impacts of disturbances on biophysical valued components. Furthermore, the assessment of socioeconomic valued components, including the effects of disturbance on Indigenous wellbeing connected to forests, has received less attention. Even though there is a high preference for regional assessment, challenges with data access, quality, and analysis, especially baseline data over long periods, are hampering effective CEA. Few articles examined CEA - policy/management nexus. Of the few studies, challenges such as the inadequate implementation of CEA mitigation strategies due to policy drawbacks and resource constraints, the high cost of monitoring multiple indicators, and poor connections between scenarios/modeling and management actions were paramount. Future CEA research is needed to broaden our understanding of how multiple disturbance affects forests in the global south and coupled social and ecological systems and their implications for sustainable forest management.

Drought and water-use efficiency are dominant environmental factors affecting greenness in the Yellow River Basin, China

Revegetation is accelerating globally because of its benefits in terms of ecosystem restoration, desertification prevention, and warming mitigation. The Yellow River Basin (YRB), as an ecological barrier in northern China, has implemented revegetation projects (such as the 'Grain for Green' program) for over two decades. However, a consensus on whether a significant change in greenness has been achieved and to what extent have environmental factors contributed to this change, as well as their importance ranking, is lacking. Leaf area index (LAI) is a critical indicator for estimating global greenness and projecting the dynamics of climate change. Herein, we apply four methods (Geodetector, random forest, multiple linear regression, and structural equation models) to explore the contribution of different environmental factors to greenness using the LAI in the YRB. We found that greenness has been increasing (greening over 67.22% (p < 0.05; 47.7%) of the YRB) with great spatial heterogeneity in the entire basin since 2000. Specifically, the greening process differed with elevation and slope. Temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI) and water-use efficiency (WUE) dominated the greening; however, the three subregions evaluated revealed differing performance. In the upstream region, LAI increased by 0.031 y^-1. The primary positive factors of greening change were WUE and the annual highest value of daily minimum temperature; the negative factors were TVDI and the highest number of consecutive days when precipitation <1 mm. In the midstream region, LAI increased by 0.025 y^-1; greenness was mainly affected by the negative interaction of TVDI and the positive interaction of WUE. Annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation and annual count when daily minimum temperature < 0 °C had a great indirect impact on greenness, mainly through TVDI and WUE. In the downstream region, LAI increased by 0.045 y^-1, and the main driving factors were the annual lowest value of daily minimum temperature with a negative influence and the annual lowest value of daily maximum temperature with a positive influence. In addition, we found that the effect of the interaction of any two driving factors on greenness was greater than or equal to the single effect of a driving factor. This study concludes that drought and WUE are important predictors to evaluate the greenness in arid and semi-arid regions. We emphasise that the selection and assessment of greenness factors should follow a scientific and rigorous process rather than experience, and increased attention should be paid to the interaction of multiple factors. Furthermore, the perspective of system analysis will deepen our understanding of vegetation change in a vulnerable ecosystem.

Phenological Shifts of the Deciduous Forests and Their Responses to Climate Variations in North America

Forests play a vital role in sequestering carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Vegetation phenology is sensitive to climate changes and natural environments. Exploring the patterns in phenological events of the forests can provide useful insights for understanding the dynamics of vegetation growth and their responses to climate variations. Deciduous forest in North America is an important part of global forests. Here we apply time-series remote sensing imagery to map the critical dates of vegetation phenological events, including the start of season (SOS), end of season (EOS), and growth length (GL) of the deciduous forests in North America during the past two decades. The findings show that the SOS and EOS present considerable spatial and temporal variations. Earlier SOS, delayed EOS, and therefore extended GL are detected in a large part of the study area from temporal trend analysis over the years, though the magnitude of the trend varies at different locations. The phenological events are found to correlate to the environmental factors and the impact on the vegetation phenology from the factors is location-dependent. The findings confirm that the phenology of the deciduous forests in North America is updated such as advanced SOS and delayed EOS in the last two decades and the climate variations are likely among the driving forces for the updates. Considering that previous studies warn that shifts in vegetation phenology could reverse the role of forests as net emitters or net sinks, we suggest that forest management should be strengthened to forests that experience significant changes in the phenological events.

Responses of Vegetation Autumn Phenology to Climatic Factors in Northern China

Understanding the dynamics of vegetation autumn phenology (i.e., the end of growing season, EOS) is crucial for evaluating impacts of climate change on vegetation growth. Nevertheless, responses of the EOS to climatic factors were unclear at the regional scale. In this study, northern China was chosen for our analysis, which is a typical ecologically fragile area. Using the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and climatic data from 1982 to 2016, we extracted the EOS and analyzed its trends in northern China by using the linear least-squares regression and the Bayesian change-point detection method. Furthermore, the partial correlation analysis and multivariate regression analysis were used to determine which climatic factor was more influential on EOS. The main findings were as follows: (1) multi-year average of EOS mainly varied between 275 and 305 day of year (DOY) and had complicated spatial differences for different vegetation types; (2) the percentage of the pixel showing delaying EOS (65.50%) was larger than that showing advancing EOS (34.50%), with a significant delaying trend of 0.21 days/year at the regional scale during the study period. As for different vegetation types, their EOS trends were similar in sign but different in magnitude; (3) temperature showed a dominant role in governing EOS trends from 1982 to 2016. The increase in minimum temperature led to the delayed EOS, whereas the increase in maximum temperature reversed the EOS trends. In addition to temperature, the impacts of precipitation and radiation on EOS trends were more complex and largely depended on the vegetation types. These findings can provide a crucial support for developing vegetation dynamics models in northern China.

Evolution and Climate Drivers of NDVI of Natural Vegetation during the Growing Season in the Arid Region of Northwest China

Vegetation plays an important role in linking water, atmosphere, and soil. The dynamic change in vegetation is an important indicator for the regulation of the terrestrial carbon balance and climate change. This study applied trend analysis, detrended correlation analysis, and the Hierarchical Partitioning Algorithm (HPA) to GIMMS NDVI3g data, meteorological data, and natural vegetation types for the period 1983 to 2015 to analyze the temporal and spatial changes in NDVI during the growing season and its driving factors in the arid region of northwestern China. The results showed that: (1) the growing season length (GSL) was delayed, with a regional trend of 8 d/33 a, due to a significant advancement in the start of the growing season (SOS, −7 d/33 a) and an insignificant delay to the end of growing season (EOS, 2 d/33 a). (2) The regional change in NDVI was mainly driven by temperature and precipitation, contributing to variations in NDVI of forest of 36% and 15%, respectively, and in the NDVI of grassland, of 35% and 21%, respectively. In particular, changes to forested land and medium-coverage grassland (Mgra) were closely related to temperature and precipitation, respectively. (3) The spatial distribution of the mean NDVI of forest was closely related with precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation, with these meteorological variables explaining 20%, 15%, and 10% of the variation in NDVI, respectively. Precipitation and solar radiation explained 29% and 17% of the variation in the NDVI of grassland, respectively. The study reveals the spatial–temporal evolution and driving mechanism of the NDVI of natural vegetation in the arid region of Northwest China, which can provide theoretical and data support for regional vegetation restoration and conservation.

Consistent temperature-dependent patterns of leaf lifespan across spatial and temporal gradients for deciduous trees in Europe

Temperature affects leaf lifespan (LL) across either space or time, driving long-term adaptation and short-term thermal acclimation, respectively. However, a comprehensive understanding of the phenomenon and the underlying phenological mechanisms remain poorly understood. The present study investigated the relationship between LL and temperature in six common deciduous trees across both spatial and temporal gradients, then explained the LL variation patterns based on phenological shifts. Using long-term (1971-2000) phenological records of six deciduous tree species at 54 sites across central Europe, we analyzed spatial and temporal variations of LL and leaf phenology along temperature gradients. We assessed the relative contribution of phenological shifts to LL variations by comparing absolute changes in leaf-out and leaf fall. We reported positive LL-temperature relationships across all observations along both spatial (+3.32 days/°C) and temporal (+4.43 days/°C) gradients. The paired t-test of the six deciduous tree species showed no significant difference in regression slopes of LL- temperature between the two gradients (t = -1.50, df = 5, P = 0.194). Prolonged LL can be explained mainly by earlier leaf-out induced by warmer temperatures both spatially (-3.22 days/°C) and temporally (-4.08 days/°C). The converging temperature-dependent patterns of LL across time and space indicate that short-term thermal acclimation keeps pace with long-term genetic adaptation for deciduous trees in Europe. Earlier leaf-out is the key force shaping the LL-temperature relationship. These results provide insights for predicting future vegetation dynamics under global warming.

Exploring the potential role of environmental and multi-source satellite data in crop yield prediction across Northeast China

Developing an accurate crop yield predicting system at a large scale is of paramount importance for agricultural resource management and global food security. Earth observation provides a unique source of information to monitor crops from a diversity of spectral ranges. However, the integrated use of these data and their values in crop yield prediction is still understudied. Here we proposed the combination of environmental data (climate, soil, geography, and topography) with multiple satellite data (optical-based vegetation indices, solar-induced fluorescence (SIF), land surface temperature (LST), and microwave vegetation optical depth (VOD)) into the framework to estimate crop yield for maize, rice, and soybean in northeast China, and their unique value and relative influence on yield prediction was assessed. Two linear regression methods, three machine learning (ML) methods, and one ML ensemble model were adopted to build yield prediction models. Results showed that the individual ML methods outperformed the linear regression methods, the ML ensemble model further improved the single ML models. Moreover, models with more inputs achieved better performance, the combination of satellite data with environmental data, which explained 72%, 69%, and 57% of maize, rice, and soybean yield variability, respectively, demonstrated higher yield prediction performance than individual inputs. While satellite data contributed to crop yield prediction mainly at the early-peak of the growing season, climate data offered extra information mainly at the peak-late season. We also found that the combined use of EVI, LST and SIF has improved the model accuracy compared to the benchmark EVI model. However, the optical-based vegetation indices shared similar information and did not provide much extra information beyond EVI. The within-season yield forecasting showed that crop yields can be satisfactorily forecasted at two to three months prior to harvest. Geography, topography, VOD, EVI, soil hydraulic and nutrient parameters are more important for crop yield prediction.

Climate Warming-Induced Changes in Plant Phenology in the Most Important Agricultural Region of Romania

Changes in plant phenology are a direct indicator of climate change and can produce important consequences for agricultural and ecological systems. This study analyzes changes in plant phenology in the 1961–2010 period (for both the entire interval and in three successive multi-decades: 1961–1990, 1971–2000 and 1981–2010) in southern and southeastern Romania, the country’s most important agricultural region. The analysis is based on mean monthly air temperature values collected from 24 regional weather stations, which were used for extracting the length (number of days) of phenophases (growing season onset, budding–leafing, flowering, fruiting, maturing, dissemination of seeds, start of leaf loss, end of leaf loss) and of the overall climatic growing season (CGS, which includes all phenophases), by means of the histophenogram method. Using a number of reliable statistical tools (Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator and the regression method) for exploring annual trends and net (total) changes in the length of the phenological periods, as well as for detecting the climate—growing season statistical relationships, our results revealed complex phenology changes and a strong response in phenological dynamics to climate warming. Essentially, a lengthening of all phenophases (maximal in the maturing period, in terms of statistical significance and magnitude of trends—on average 0.48 days/yr/24 days net change in the 1961–2010 period, or even 0.94 days/yr/28 days net change in the 1971–2000 sub-period) was noticed, except for the fruiting and dissemination phenophases, which were dominated by negative trends in the number of days, but partially statistically significant (at a confidence level threshold of at least 90%). The CGS exhibited overall increasing trends, with an average of 0.21 days/yr/11 days net change in the 1961–2010 interval, and even of 0.90 days/yr/27 days net change in the 1981–2010 sub-period. Moreover, based on the slope values obtained upon application of a linear regression to mean temperature and CGS, we discovered that a 1 °C increase in climate warming accounted for a remarkable lengthening of the CGS, on average of 14 days between 1961 and 2010, and of 16 days between 1981 and 2010. Our results can help improve the adaptation of agroecological systems to future climate change.

Spatiotemporal Variation of Osmanthus fragrans Phenology in China in Response to Climate Change From 1973 to 1996

Climate change greatly affects spring and autumn plant phenology around the world consequently, and significantly impacts ecosystem function and the social economy. However, autumn plant phenology, especially autumn flowering phenology, has not been studied so far. In this study, we examined the spatiotemporal pattern of Osmanthus fragrans phenology, including both leaf phenology (the date of bud-bust, BBD; first leaf unfolding, FLD; and 50% of leaf unfolding, 50 LD) and flowering phenology (the date of first flowering, FFD; peak of flowering, PFD; and end of flowering, EFD). Stepwise multiple linear regressions were employed to analyze the relationships between phenophases and climatic factors in the long term phenological data collected by the Chinese Phenological Observation Network from 1973 to 1996. The results showed that spring leaf phenophases and autumn flowering phenophases were strongly affected by latitude. BBD, FLD, and 50LD of O. fragrans were delayed by 3.98, 3.93, and 4.40 days as per degree of latitude increased, while FFD, PFD and EFD in O. fragrans advanced 3.11, 3.26, and 2.99 days, respectively. During the entire study period, BBD was significantly delayed across the region, whereas no significant trends were observed either in FLD or 50LD. Notably, all flowering phenophases of O. fragrans were delayed. Both leaf and flowering phenophases negatively correlated with growing degree-days (GDD) and cold degree-days (CDD), respectively. BBD and FLD were negatively correlated with total annual precipitation. In addition to the effects of climate on autumn flowering phenology, we found that earlier spring leaf phenophases led to delayed autumn flowering phenophases. Our results suggest that future climate change and global warming might delay the phenological sequence of O. fragrans. Our findings also advanced the flowering mechanism study of autumn flowering plants, and facilitated the accurate prediction of future phenology and climate change.

Grassland Phenology’s Sensitivity to Extreme Climate Indices in the Sichuan Province, Western China

Depending on the vegetation type, extreme climate and drought events have a greater impact on the end of the season (EOS) and start of the season (SOS). This study investigated the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of grassland phenology and its responses to seasonal and extreme climate changes in Sichuan Province from 2001 to 2020. Based on the data from 38 meteorological stations in Sichuan Province, this study calculated the 15 extreme climate indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The results showed that SOS was concentrated in mid-March to mid-May (80–140 d), and 61.83% of the area showed a significant advancing trend, with a rate of 0–1.5 d/a. The EOS was concentrated between 270–330 d, from late September to late November, and 71.32% showed a delayed trend. SOS was strongly influenced by the diurnal temperature range (DTR), yearly maximum consecutive five-day precipitation (RX5), and the temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI), while EOS was most influenced by the yearly minimum daily temperature (TNN), yearly mean temperature (TEMP_MEAN), and TVDI. The RX5 day index showed an overall positive sensitivity coefficient for SOS. TNN index showed a positive sensitivity coefficient for EOS. TVDI showed positive and negative sensitivities for SOS and EOS, respectively. This suggests that extreme climate change, if it causes an increase in vegetation SOS, may also cause an increase in vegetation EOS. This research can provide a scientific basis for developing regional vegetation restoration and disaster prediction strategies in Sichuan Province.

Driving Forces of the Changes in Vegetation Phenology in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Phenological change is an emerging hot topic in ecology and climate change research. Existing phenological studies in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) have focused on overall changes, while ignoring the different characteristics of changes in different regions. Here, we use the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS3g) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset as a basis to discuss the temporal and spatial changes in vegetation phenology in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 1982 to 2015. We also analyze the response mechanisms of pre-season climate factor and vegetation phenology and reveal the driving forces of the changes in vegetation phenology. The results show that: (1) the start of the growing season (SOS) and the length of the growing season (LOS) in the QTP fluctuate greatly year by year; (2) in the study area, the change in pre-season precipitation significantly affects the SOS in the northeast (p < 0.05), while, the delay in the end of the growing season (EOS) in the northeast is determined by pre-season air temperature and precipitation; (3) pre-season precipitation in April or May is the main driving force of the SOS of different vegetation, while air temperature and precipitation in the pre-season jointly affect the EOS of different vegetation. The differences in and the diversity of vegetation types together lead to complex changes in vegetation phenology across different regions within the QTP. Therefore, addressing the characteristics and impacts of changes in vegetation phenology across different regions plays an important role in ecological protection in this region.

Impact of microclimatic conditions and resource availability on spring and autumn phenology of temperate tree seedlings

Microclimatic effects (light, temperature) are often neglected in phenological studies and little information is known about the impact of resource availability (nutrient and water) on tree's phenological cycles. Here we experimentally studied spring and autumn phenology in four temperate trees in response to changes in bud albedo (white-painted vs black-painted buds), light conditions (nonshaded vs c. 70% shaded), water availability (irrigated, control and reduced precipitation) and nutrients (low vs high availability). We found that higher bud albedo or shade delayed budburst (up to +12 d), indicating that temperature is sensed locally within each bud. Leaf senescence was delayed by high nutrient availability (up to +7 d) and shade conditions (up to +39 d) in all species, except oak. Autumn phenological responses to summer droughts depended on species, with a delay for cherry (+7 d) and an advance for beech (-7 d). The strong phenological effects of bud albedo and light exposure reveal an important role of microclimatic variation on phenology. In addition to the temperature and photoperiod effects, our results suggest a tight interplay between source and sink processes in regulating the end of the seasonal vegetation cycle, which can be largely influenced by resource availability (light, water and nutrients).

Effects of the Simulated Enhancement of Precipitation on the Phenology of Nitraria tangutorum under Extremely Dry and Wet Years

Plant phenology is the most sensitive biological indicator that responds to climate change. Many climate models predict that extreme precipitation events will occur frequently in the arid areas of northwest China in the future, with an increase in the quantity and unpredictability of rain. Future changes in precipitation will inevitably have a profound impact on plant phenology in arid areas. A recent study has shown that after the simulated enhancement of precipitation, the end time of the leaf unfolding period of Nitraria tangutorum advanced, and the end time of leaf senescence was delayed. Under extreme climatic conditions, such as extremely dry or wet years, it is unclear whether the influence of the simulated enhancement of precipitation on the phenology of N. tangutorum remains stable. To solve this problem, this study systematically analyzed the effects of the simulated enhancement of precipitation on the start, end and duration of four phenological events of N. tangutorum, including leaf budding, leaf unfolding, leaf senescence and leaf fall under extremely dry and wet conditions. The aim of this study was to clarify the similarities and differences of the effects of the simulated enhancement of precipitation on the start, end and duration of each phenological period of N. tangutorum in an extremely dry and an extremely wet year to reveal the regulatory effect of extremely dry and excessive amounts of precipitation on the phenology of N. tangutorum. (1) After the simulated enhancement of precipitation, the start and end times of the spring phenology (leaf budding and leaf unfolding) of N. tangutorum advanced during an extremely dry and an extremely wet year, but the duration of phenology was shortened during an extremely wet year and prolonged during an extremely drought-stricken year. The amplitude of variation increased with the increase in simulated precipitation. (2) After the simulated enhancement of precipitation, the start and end times of the phenology (leaf senescence and leaf fall) of N. tangutorum during the autumn advanced in an extremely wet year but was delayed during an extremely dry year, and the duration of phenology was prolonged in both extremely dry and wet years. The amplitude of variation increased with the increase in simulated precipitation. (3) The regulation mechanism of extremely dry or wet years on the spring phenology of N. tangutorum lay in the different degree of influence on the start and end times of leaf budding and leaf unfolding. However, the regulation mechanism of extremely dry or wet years on the autumn phenology of N. tangutorum lay in different reasons. Water stress caused by excessive water forced N. tangutorum to start its leaf senescence early during an extremely wet year. In contrast, the alleviation of drought stress after watering during the senescence of N. tangutorum caused a delay in the autumn phenology during an extremely dry year.

The Sensitivity of Vegetation Phenology to Extreme Climate Indices in the Loess Plateau, China

Climate changes, especially increased temperatures, and precipitation changes, have significant impacts on vegetation phenology. However, the response of vegetation phenology to the extreme climate in the Loess Plateau in Northwest China remains poorly quantified. The research described here analyzed the spatial change in vegetation phenology and the response of vegetation phenology to climate change in the Loess Plateau from 2001 to 2018, using data from seven extreme climate indices based on the ridge regression method. The results showed that extreme climate indexes, TNn (yearly minimum value of the daily minimum temperature), TXx (yearly maximum value of the daily maximum temperature), and RX5day (yearly maximum consecutive five-day precipitation) progressively increased from 2001 to 2018 in the Loess Plateau region, but decrease trend was found in DRT (diurnal temperature range). The start of the growing season (SOS) of vegetation gradually advanced with precipitation from northwest to southeast, and the rate was +0.38 d/a. The overall vegetation end of the growing season (EOS) was delayed, and the trend was −2.83 d/a. The sensitivity of the different vegetation phenology to different extreme weather indices showed obvious spatial differences, the sensitivity coefficient of SOS being mainly positive in the region, whereas the sensitivity coefficient of EOS was negative generally. More sensitivity was found in the EOS to extreme climate indexes than in the SOS. Forest, shrubland and grassland have similar responses to DRT and TNn; namely, both SOS and EOS are advanced with the increase in DRT and delayed with the increase in TNn (the sensitivity coefficient is quite different) but have different responses to RX5day and TXx. These results reveal that extreme climate events have a greater impact on vegetation EOS than on vegetation SOS, with these effects varying with vegetation types. This research can provide a scientific basis for formulating a scientific basis for regional vegetation restoration strategies and disaster prediction on the Loess Plateau.

Artificial Light at Night Advances Spring Phenology in the United States

Plant phenology is closely related to light availability as diurnal and seasonal cycles are essential environmental cues for organizing bio-ecological processes. The natural cycles of light, however, have been dramatically disrupted by artificial light at night (ALAN) due to recent urbanization. The influence on plant phenology of ALAN and its spatial variation remain largely unknown. By analyzing satellite data on ALAN intensity across the United States, here, we showed that ALAN tended to advance the start date of the growing season (SOS), although the overall response of SOS to ALAN was relatively weak compared with other potential factors (e.g., preseason temperature). The phenological impact of ALAN showed a spatially divergent pattern, whereby ALAN mainly advanced SOS at climatically moderate regions within the United States (e.g., Virginia), while its effect was insignificant or even reversed at very cold (e.g., Minnesota) and hot regions (e.g., Florida). Such a divergent pattern was mainly attributable to its high sensitivity to chilling insufficiency, where the advancing effect on SOS was only triggered on the premise that chilling days exceeded a certain threshold. Other mechanisms may also play a part, such as the interplay among chilling, forcing and photoperiod and the difference in species life strategies. Besides, urban areas and natural ecosystems were found to suffer from similar magnitudes of influence from ALAN, albeit with a much higher baseline ALAN intensity in urban areas. Our findings shed new light on the phenological impact of ALAN and its relation to space and other environmental cues, which is beneficial to a better understanding and projection of phenology changes under a warming and urbanizing future.

Variable Fall Climate Conditions on Carbon Assimilation and Spring Phenology of Young Peach Trees

Variable fall temperature and moisture conditions may alter leaf senescence of deciduous fruit trees, influencing carbon assimilation before dormancy and phenology the following spring. This study explored gas exchange of young peach trees (Prunus persica (L.) Batsch) when senescence proceeded normally or was delayed during the fall under two soil moisture treatments: Well-irrigated trees or water deficit. Results showed leaf carbon assimilation was similar between the senescence treatments, but whole tree assimilation was estimated to be greater in delayed senescence trees compared to normal senescence trees based on timing of defoliation and total leaf area. The effect of soil moisture on carbon assimilation was not consistent between years. Delayed sap flow and bloom time resulted as a consequence of delayed senescence the previous fall, but soil moisture did not affect spring phenology.

Why don't phenophase dates in the current year affect the same phenophase dates in the following year?

Examining whether a phenophase occurrence date in the current year affects the same phenophase occurrence date in the following year is crucial for developing cross-year phenological prediction models. Here, we carried out correlation analyses between leaf unfolding start (LUS)/leaf fall end (LFE) dates in the current and following years for four dominant tree species in temperate northern China from 1981 to 2012. Then, we calculated the recurrence intervals of LUS and LFE between two adjacent years for each species. Moreover, we investigated temperature effects on LUS/LFE dates, growing season and non-growing season lengths. Results show that correlation coefficients between LUS/LFE dates in the current and following years are nonsignificant at most stations. The recurrence interval of a phenophase has slight interannual variation and correlates significantly (and negatively) with the phenophase occurrence date of the current year. Further analyses indicate that LUS dates correlate significantly (and negatively) with spring mean temperatures, while LFE dates correlate significantly (and positively) with autumn mean temperatures, but negatively with growing season mean temperatures. In addition, spring mean temperatures can influence growing season length by controlling LUS date but cannot influence the following non-growing season length. Similarly, autumn mean temperatures and growing season mean temperatures can influence the subsequent non-growing season length but cannot influence the growing season length of the following year. Our study highlights that recurrence interval and time restrictions in the effects of seasonal temperatures on phenophase dates are the main environmental causes of nonsignificant correlations between phenophase occurrence dates in the current and following years.

Increasing Summer Rainfall and Asymmetrical Diurnal and Seasonal Warming Enhanced Vegetation Greenness in Temperate Deciduous Forests and Grasslands of Northern China

Temperate forests and grasslands carry key ecosystem functions and provide essential services. Remote-sensing derived greenness has been widely used to assess the response of ecosystem function to climate and land-cover changes. Although reforestation and grassland restoration have been proposed to enhance the regional greenness in Northern China, the independent contribution of climate without the interference of land-cover change at meso and large scales has rarely been explored. To separate the impacts of climate change on vegetation greenness from those of land-cover/use change, we identified large patches of forests and grasslands in Northern China without land-cover/use changes in 2001–2015 and derived their greenness using MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI). We found that most deciduous-broadleaved forest patches showed greening, and the significant slope of the annual mean and maximum EVI are 3.97 ± 0.062 × 10−3 and 4.8 ± 0.116 × 10−3 yr−1, respectively. On the contrary, grassland patches showed great spatial heterogeneity and only those in the east showed greening. The partial correlation analysis between EVI and climate showed that the greening of grassland patches is primarily supported by the increased growing-season precipitation with mean significant coefficient of 0.72 ± 0.01. While wet-year (0.57 ± 0.01) and nongrowing-season precipitation (0.68 ± 0.01) significantly benefit greening of deciduous-broadleaved forests, the altered temperature seasonality modulates their greening spatial-heterogeneously. The increased growing-season minimum temperature might lengthen the growing season and contribute to the greening for the temperature-limited north as shown by positive partial correlation coefficient of 0.66 ± 0.01, but might elevate respiration and reduce greening of the forests in the south as shown by negative coefficient of −0.70 ± 0.01. Daytime warming in growing season is found to favor the drought-tolerant oak dominated forest in the south due to enhanced photosynthesis, but may not favor the forests dominated by less-drought-tolerant birch in the north due to potential water stress. Therefore, grassland greening was essentially promoted by the growing-season precipitation, however, in addition to being driven by precipitation, greening of deciduous forests was regulated spatial-heterogeneously by asymmetrical diurnal and seasonal warming which could be attributed to species composition.

Water Addition Prolonged the Length of the Growing Season of the Desert Shrub Nitraria tangutorum in a Temperate Desert

Climate models often predict that more extreme precipitation events will occur in arid and semiarid regions, where plant phenology is particularly sensitive to precipitation changes. To understand how increases in precipitation affect plant phenology, this study conducted a manipulative field experiment in a desert ecosystem of northwest China. In this study, a long-term in situ water addition experiment was conducted in a temperate desert in northwestern China. The following five treatments were used: natural rain plus an additional 0, 25, 50, 75, and 100% of the local mean annual precipitation. A series of phenological events, including leaf unfolding (onset, 30%, 50%, and end of leaf unfolding), cessation of new branch elongation (30, 50, and 90%), and leaf coloration (80% of leaves turned yellow), of the locally dominant shrub Nitraria tangutorum were observed from 2012 to 2018. The results showed that on average, over the seven-year-study and in all treatments water addition treatments advanced the spring phenology (30% of leaf unfolding) by 1.29-3.00 days, but delayed the autumn phenology (80% of leaves turned yellow) by 1.18-11.82 days. Therefore, the length of the growing season was prolonged by 2.11-13.68 days, and autumn phenology contributed more than spring phenology. In addition, water addition treatments delayed the cessation of new branch elongation (90%) by 5.82-12.61 days, and nonlinear relationships were found between the leaves yellowing (80% of leaves) and the amount of watering. Linear relationships were found between the cessation of new branch elongation (90%), the length of the growing season, and amount of water addition. The two response patterns to water increase indicated that predictions of phenological events in the future should not be based on one trend only.

Modeling leaf senescence of deciduous tree species in Europe

Autumnal leaf senescence signals the end of photosynthetic activities in temperate deciduous trees and consequently exerts a strong control on various ecological processes. Predicting leaf senescence dates (LSD) with high accuracy is thus a prerequisite for better understanding the climate-ecosystem interactions. However, modeling LSD at large spatial and temporal scales is challenging. In this study, first, we used 19972 site-year records (848 sites and four deciduous tree species) from the PAN European Phenology network to calibrate and evaluate six leaf senescence models during the period 1980-2013. Second, we extended the spatial analysis by repeating the procedure across Europe using satellite-derived end of growing season and a forest map. Overall, we found that models that considered photoperiod and temperature interactions outperformed models using simple temperature or photoperiod thresholds for Betula pendula, Fagus sylvatica and Quercus robur. On the contrary, no model displayed reasonable predictions for Aesculus hippocastanum. This inter-model comparison indicates that, contrary to expectation, photoperiod does not significantly modulate the accumulation of cooling degree days (CDD). On the other hand, considering the carryover effect of leaf unfolding date could promote the models' predictability. The CDD models generally matched the observed LSD at species level and its interannual variation, but were limited in explaining the inter-site variations, indicating that other environmental cues need to be considered in future model development. The discrepancies remaining between model simulations and observations highlight the need of manipulation studies to elucidate the mechanisms behind the leaf senescence process and to make current models more realistic.

Change in Autumn Vegetation Phenology and the Climate Controls From 1982 to 2012 on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Autumn vegetation phenology plays a critical role in the survival and reproduction of vegetation in changing environments. Using GIMMS3g (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies), MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging and Spectroradiometer), and SPOT (Systeme Probatoire d'Observation de la Terre) remote sensing data, we investigated the spatial and temporal dynamics of the vegetation dormancy onset date (DOD) and its response to temperature, precipitation, and cold degree days (CDD) in different biomes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) from 1982 to 2012. Our results indicated that there was no significant temporal trend in the DOD for the vegetation on the QTP but found clear regional characteristics in the DOD trends with a notably advancing trend in the central region and a widespread delay in the southwestern region (>1 day year^-1, P < 0.05). Our results also indicated that temperature plays an important role in the trend of delays in vegetation autumn phenology; in particular, the preseason temperature can delay the DOD significantly; the positive correlations were observed in more than 71% of the study areas. Consistent with previous studies, we observed significant negative correlations between preseason CDD and DOD; the negative correlations were observed in more than 72% of the study areas for all the data sets. In contrast, the effects of precipitation on DOD were biome dependent. We found that precipitation could promote the extension of the growing season in meadow and grass biomes but produce weak effects on vegetation dormancy in forest biomes. Therefore, not only the magnitude but also the timing of changes in temperature and precipitation determines the effects of climate factors on DOD and further suggests that biome-specific phenological responses also need to be integrated into vegetation phenology models for future climate change investigations on the QTP.

Spatial variance of spring phenology in temperate deciduous forests is constrained by background climatic conditions

Leaf unfolding in temperate forests is driven by spring temperature, but little is known about the spatial variance of that temperature dependency. Here we use in situ leaf unfolding observations for eight deciduous tree species to show that the two factors that control chilling (number of cold days) and heat requirement (growing degree days at leaf unfolding, GDDreq) only explain 30% of the spatial variance of leaf unfolding. Radiation and aridity differences among sites together explain 10% of the spatial variance of leaf unfolding date, and 40% of the variation in GDDreq. Radiation intensity is positively correlated with GDDreq and aridity is negatively correlated with GDDreq spatial variance. These results suggest that leaf unfolding of temperate deciduous trees is adapted to local mean climate, including water and light availability, through altered sensitivity to spring temperature. Such adaptation of heat requirement to background climate would imply that models using constant temperature response are inherently inaccurate at local scale.

Spatial Upscaling of Tree-Ring-Based Forest Response to Drought with Satellite Data

We have integrated the observational capability of satellite remote sensing with plot-scale tree-ring data to upscale the evaluation of forest responses to drought. Satellite data, such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), can provide a spatially continuous measure with limited temporal coverage, while tree-ring width index (RWI) provides an accurate assessment with a much longer time series at local scales. Here, we explored the relationship between RWI and NDVI of three dominant species in the Southwestern United States (SWUS) and predicted RWI spatial distribution from 2001 to 2017 based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 1-km resolution NDVI data with stringent quality control. We detected the optimum time windows (around June–August) during which the RWI and NDVI were most closely correlated for each species, when the canopy growth had the greatest effect on growth of tree trunks. Then, using our upscaling algorithm of NDVI-based RWI, we were able to detect the significant impact of droughts in 2002 and in 2011–2014, which supported the validity of this algorithm in quantifying forest response to drought on a large scale.

Drought in Portugal: Current regime, comparison of indices and impacts on extreme wildfires

In Portugal, drought characterizes the climatic variability, contributes to the increase of fire risk and its duration and intensity are expected to increase in future climate. Surprisingly, the quantitative and objective analysis to characterize the drought regime in current climate conditions as well as its influence on the occurrence of large wildfires (LW) has never been done for Portugal, which are the main objectives of this study. We assessed drought regime for recent past climate conditions (1981-2017), using four different drought indices, namely SPI, SPEI, RDI and VCI, and assessed the influence of drought in LW occurrence. Results include the characterization of drought number, duration, severity, intensity, extension, intra- and inter-annual variability for different classes of severity and the space-time distribution of LW in drought periods and affected area. Our main findings include 67% of the study period were drought months; regions with higher drought duration and severity assessed with SPI and SPEI for general drought conditions evolves from north to south with the increase of drought assessment period; drought characteristics present low intra - annual and inter - annual variability but are clearly associated to the temporal and spatial distribution of LW. In fact, all LW occurred during drought assessed with SPI or SPEI, almost all LW (97% to 95%) and corresponding burnt area (98% to 97%) occurred during drought assessed with SPI and SPEI. The relationship between drought and fire incidence is statistical significant for 3 - month SPI, 3 - and 6 - month SPEI, and is particularly strong for Moderate and Severe drought. 85% and 87% of LW occurred in area affected by drought assessed with SPI or SPEI, respectively. It is not clear which is the best index, but drought plays a fundamental role in the occurrence of large wildfires in Portugal.

Nutrient availability alters the correlation between spring leaf-out and autumn leaf senescence dates

Leaf senescence (LS) affects tree fitness, species distribution and ecosystem structure and functioning. The drivers of LS and the processes underlying it have been studied, but the studies have mainly focused on environmental cues and have mainly been based on statistical analyses using in situ data sets. Experimental investigation and field verification of the processes and drivers are thus urgently needed. We conducted a nutrient-addition experiment after a spring-warming experiment in which an ~40-day range of leaf-out (LO) dates was induced in horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum) and beech (Fagus sylvatica) saplings. We found that both increased nutrient supply and advanced LO date significantly affected the timing of LS, but their effects were opposite, as the former delayed and the latter advanced the senescence. The effects of nutrient supply and LO interacted species specifically. In chestnut, the delay of senescence caused by fertilization increased with the delay of LO and was thus stronger for individuals that flushed late in the spring. On the contrary, in beech the delay of senescence caused by fertilization decreased with the delay of LO and was insignificant for individuals with the latest LO. The experimental findings for beech were confirmed with mature trees at a regional scale. The interactive effect between nutrients and LO on senescence may be associated with variable sensitivity to photoperiod, growth sink limitation and/or direct effect of foliar nutrition on the timing of senescence. Our novel results show that the interactive effects of LO and nutrient supply on the timing of LS should be further addressed experimentally in forthcoming studies. It would also be interesting to consider our results in the further development of phenological models used in assessing the effects of climatic change. The differences found in the present study between horse chestnut and beech suggest that the results found for one species cannot necessarily be generalized to other species, so studies with different temperate tree species are called for.

Rethinking false spring risk

Temperate plants are at risk of being exposed to late spring freezes. These freeze events-often called false springs-are one of the strongest factors determining temperate plants species range limits and can impose high ecological and economic damage. As climate change may alter the prevalence and severity of false springs, our ability to forecast such events has become more critical, and it has led to a growing body of research. Many false spring studies largely simplify the myriad complexities involved in assessing false spring risks and damage. While these studies have helped advance the field and may provide useful estimates at large scales, studies at the individual to community levels must integrate more complexity for accurate predictions of plant damage from late spring freezes. Here, we review current metrics of false spring, and how, when, and where plants are most at risk of freeze damage. We highlight how life stage, functional group, species differences in morphology and phenology, and regional climatic differences contribute to the damage potential of false springs. More studies aimed at understanding relationships among species tolerance and avoidance strategies, climatic regimes, and the environmental cues that underlie spring phenology would improve predictions at all biological levels. An integrated approach to assessing past and future spring freeze damage would provide novel insights into fundamental plant biology and offer more robust predictions as climate change progresses, which are essential for mitigating the adverse ecological and economic effects of false springs.

Geographic and Climatic Attributions of Autumn Land Surface Phenology Spatial Patterns in the Temperate Deciduous Broadleaf Forest of China

Autumn vegetation phenology plays a critical role in identifying the end of the growing season and its response to climate change. Using the six vegetation indices retrieved from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer data, we extracted an end date of the growing season (EOS) in the temperate deciduous broadleaf forest (TDBF) area of China. Then, we validated EOS with the ground-observed leaf fall date (LF) of dominant tree species at 27 sites and selected the best vegetation index. Moreover, we analyzed the spatial pattern of EOS based on the best vegetation index and its dependency on geo-location indicators and seasonal temperature/precipitation. Results show that the plant senescence reflectance index-based EOS agrees most closely with LF. Multi-year averaged EOS display latitudinal, longitudinal and altitudinal gradients. The altitudinal sensitivity of EOS became weaker from 2000 to 2012. Temperature-based spatial phenology modeling indicated that a 1 K spatial shift in seasonal mean temperature can cause a spatial shift of 2.4–3.6 days in EOS. The models explain between 54% and 73% of the variance in the EOS timing. However, the influence of seasonal precipitation on spatial variations of EOS was much weaker. Thus, spatial temperature variation controls the spatial patterns of EOS in TDBF of China, and future temperature increase might lead to more uniform autumn phenology across elevations.

Plant phenology and global climate change: Current progresses and challenges

Plant phenology, the annually recurring sequence of plant developmental stages, is important for plant functioning and ecosystem services and their biophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system. Plant phenology depends on temperature, and the current rapid climate change has revived interest in understanding and modeling the responses of plant phenology to the warming trend and the consequences thereof for ecosystems. Here, we review recent progresses in plant phenology and its interactions with climate change. Focusing on the start (leaf unfolding) and end (leaf coloring) of plant growing seasons, we show that the recent rapid expansion in ground- and remote sensing- based phenology data acquisition has been highly beneficial and has supported major advances in plant phenology research. Studies using multiple data sources and methods generally agree on the trends of advanced leaf unfolding and delayed leaf coloring due to climate change, yet these trends appear to have decelerated or even reversed in recent years. Our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the plant phenology responses to climate warming is still limited. The interactions between multiple drivers complicate the modeling and prediction of plant phenology changes. Furthermore, changes in plant phenology have important implications for ecosystem carbon cycles and ecosystem feedbacks to climate, yet the quantification of such impacts remains challenging. We suggest that future studies should primarily focus on using new observation tools to improve the understanding of tropical plant phenology, on improving process-based phenology modeling, and on the scaling of phenology from species to landscape-level.

Satellite detection of cumulative and lagged effects of drought on autumn leaf senescence over the Northern Hemisphere

Climate change has substantial influences on autumn leaf senescence, that is, the end of the growing season (EOS). Relative to the impacts of temperature and precipitation on EOS, the influence of drought is not well understood, especially considering that there are apparent cumulative and lagged effects of drought on plant growth. Here, we investigated the cumulative and lagged effects of drought (in terms of the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI) on EOS derived from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI3g) data over the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical ecosystems (>30°N) during 1982-2015. The cumulative effect was determined by the number of antecedent months at which SPEI showed the maximum correlation with EOS (i.e., R_max-cml ) while the lag effect was determined by a month during which the maximum correlation between 1-month SPEI and EOS occurred (i.e., R_max-lag ). We found cumulative effect of drought on EOS for 27.2% and lagged effect for 46.2% of the vegetated land area. For the dominant time scales where the R_max-cml and R_max-lag occurred, we observed 1-4 accumulated months for the cumulative effect and 2-6 lagged months for the lagged effect. At the biome level, drought had stronger impacts on EOS in grasslands, savannas, and shrubs than in forests, which may be related to the different root functional traits among vegetation types. Considering hydrological conditions, the mean values of both R_max-cml and R_max-lag decreased along the gradients of annual SPEI and its slope, suggesting stronger cumulative and lagged effects in drier regions as well as in areas with decreasing water availability. Furthermore, the average accumulated and lagged months tended to decline along the annual SPEI gradient but increase with increasing annual SPEI. Our results revealed that drought has strong cumulative and lagged effects on autumn phenology, and considering these effects could provide valuable information on the vegetation response to a changing climate.

The influence of spectral composition on spring and autumn phenology in trees

Several recent reviews highlight the molecular mechanisms that underpin phenological responses to temperature and photoperiod; however, these have mostly overlooked the influence of solar radiation and its spectral composition on these processes. For instance, solar radiation in the blue and ultraviolet (UV) regions of the spectrum, as well as the red/far-red (R:FR) ratio, can influence spring and autumn phenology. Solar radiation reaching the Earth changes diurnally and seasonally; however, rising global temperatures, latitudinal range shifts and light pollution are likely to produce novel combinations of phenological cues for tree species. Here, we review the literature on phenological responses to spectral composition. Our objective was to explore the natural variation in spectral composition using radiative transfer models and to reveal any species-specific or ecotype-specific responses relating to latitudinal origin. These responses are likely to be most pronounced at high latitudes where spectral composition varies most throughout the year. For instance, trees from high latitudes tend to be more sensitive to changes in R:FR than those from low latitudes. The effects of blue light and UV radiation on phenology have not been studied as much as those of R:FR, but the limited results available suggest both could be candidate cues affecting autumn leaf colouration and senescence. Failure of more-southern species and ecotypes to adapt and use spectral cues during northwards range shifts could result in mistimed phenology, potentially resulting in frost damage, reduced fitness and limited range expansion. Future areas for research should look to establish how consistently different functional types of tree respond to spectral cues and identify photoreceptor-mediated mechanisms that allow plants to combine information from multiple light cues to coordinate the timing of phenological events. It should then be feasible to consider the synchronous or sequential action of light cues within a hierarchy of environmental factors regulating phenology.

Tropical Dry Forest Diversity, Climatic Response, and Resilience in a Changing Climate

Central and South America tropical dry forest (TDF) is a water-limited biome with a high number of endemic species and numerous ecosystem services which has experienced a boom in research in the last decade. Although the number of case studies across these seasonal, water-limited, tropical forests has increased, there has not been a comprehensive review to assess the physiological variability of this biome across the continent and assess how these forests respond to climatic variables. Additionally, understanding forest change and resilience under climatic variability, currently and in the future, is essential for assessing the future extent and health of forests in the future. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to provide a literature review on the variability of TDF diversity and structure across a latitudinal gradient and to assess how these components respond to differences in climatic variables across this geographic area. We first assess the current state of understanding of the structure, biomass, phenological cycles, and successional stages across the latitudinal gradient. We subsequently review the response of these five areas to differences in precipitation, temperature, and extreme weather events, such as droughts and hurricanes. We find that there is a range of adaptability to precipitation, with many areas exhibiting drought tolerance except under the most extreme circumstances, while being susceptible to damage from increased extreme precipitation events. Finally, we use this climatic response to provide a commentary on the projected resilience of TDFs under climatic changes, finding a likelihood of resilience under drying scenarios, although model projections do not agree on the magnitude or direction of precipitation change. This review of quantitative studies will provide more concrete details on the current diversity that encompasses the TDF, the natural climatic ranges under which this ecosystem can survive and thrive, and can help inform future forest management practices under climate change scenarios.

Mapping Global Environmental Suitability for Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench

Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench, called sweet sorghum, is a drought-resistant and heat-tolerant plant used for ethanol bioenergy production, and is able to reduce the competition between growing crops for energy vs. growing crops for food. Quantitatively mapping the marginal lands of sweet sorghum is essential for the development of sorghum-based fuel ethanol production. However, knowledge of the contemporary marginal lands of sweet sorghum remains incomplete, and usually relies on sample data or is evaluated at a national or regional scale based on established rules. In this study, a novel method was demonstrated for mapping the global marginal lands of sweet sorghum based on a machine learning model. The total amount of global marginal lands suitable for sweet sorghum is 4802.21 million hectares. The model was applied to training and validation samples, and achieved high predictive performance, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) values of 0.984 and 0.978, respectively. In addition, the results illustrate that maximum annual temperature contributes more than do other variables to the predicted distribution of sweet sorghum and has a contribution rate of 40.2%.

Forest Fragmentation and Connectivity in Virginia Between 2001 and 2011

With an annual population growth rate currently estimated at about 5 %, Virginia presents an ideal case study for anthropogenic environmental disturbances. Urbanization as a result of increasing human activities has led to fragmentation of many crucial habitats, especially forests. Analysis of the extent to which forest fragmentation and connectivity have occurred in Virginia and corresponding changes associated with these processes, is relevant for conserving forest habitats and the biodiversity that they support. This study applies FRAGSTATS, a software system developed to assess forest fragmentation and connectivity, in combination with ArcGIS, to identify changes in forest patch metrics for Virginia over a ten-year interval (2001, 2006 and 2011) using National Land Cover Datasets (NLCD) maps as data source. Results show that, over ten years, forest patches have significantly declined in size, while the number of forest patches and total length of edge areas have increased over time. Results of this study show that road density in Virginia has no significant effect on forest fragmentation between 2001 and 2011. Analysis using ArcGIS revealed that sizes of core forest areas in Virginia are declining, and that these reductions match local topographic slope. This is because the steepness of the slope of an area dictates the degree of human activities in that area. These results suggest that urban sprawl associated with areas with gentler slopes, may have significant, long-term consequences for natural forest ecosystems and ultimately, biodiversity conservation.