The role of forest conversion, degradation, and disturbance in the carbon dynamics of Amazon indigenous territories and protected areas

Extent and diversity of recognized Indigenous and community lands: Cases from Northern and Western Europe

Despite a well-established system of community lands, the current lack of spatial data on community territories impacts how Indigenous peoples and local communities (IPs and LCs) in Europe are included in global discussions about land rights recognition and their critical role in land stewardship. We present an aggregation of spatial data for 41 Mha of recognized IPs and LCs lands in Western and Northern Europe, including data that were not previously included in global datasets. We show that governments recognize IPs and LCs lands through a diversity of tenure systems, which are managed under a variety of governance arrangements, including community, State, and shared governance. IPs and LCs contribute important services to people, underscoring their potential role in the climate and conservation needs of Europe.

Advancing the deliberate implementation of the concept of sustainability and its alternatives in physical therapy research, practice, and education

BACKGROUND

Sustainability has become a ubiquitous imperative across all sectors of society, including healthcare. Building on the broader discourse on sustainable development, sustainability is used in relation to social, ecological, and economic concerns with varying degrees of emphasis and often related to a sense of durability.

OBJECTIVE

To provide a detailed analysis of the concept of sustainability in current physical therapy literature and advance its deliberate future implementation.

METHODS

Setting out from a critical exposition of prevalent models of sustainability, we conducted a critical discourse analysis to (1) examine the implementation of the concept of sustainability in physical therapy academic literature and (2) critically evaluate its hitherto use in light of the broader discourse surrounding sustainability.

RESULTS

Our analysis identified a focus on the cost-effectiveness of healthcare interventions, and the use of so-called "weak" and "strong sustainability" models in the physical therapy literature. Other models and the broader critical discourse surrounding sustainability are only gradually finding their way into physical therapy literature.

CONCLUSION

Physical therapy lacks comprehensive exploration of both general and profession-specific understandings of sustainability. Nuanced engagement with sustainability and its alternatives is necessary to ensure its meaningful implementation in physical therapy research, education, and practice.

Saguinus martinsi: predicted loss of habitat suitability following global warming and insights for the conservation of the species

Global climate change is directly influenced by human actions due to land use and occupation. In this way, factors related to environments conditions, concomitant with anthropogenic impacts, determine the suitability of environments for species. We analyze the present-day and future suitability of environments for Saguinus martinsi, a primate species endemic to the Brazilian Amazon region. We analyzed two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), one "optimistic" (SSP2-4.5) and the other "pessimistic" (SSP5-8.5), described by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We created the models using climatic, edaphic, and topographic variables based on the Euclidean Distance algorithm. Our results indicate that S. martinsi may face severe threats in the near future as a consequence of climate change, given that no environmentally suitable areas were identified for the species in either of the future climate scenarios analyzed. We understand that it is necessary to expand searches for the presence and/or absence of the species in potentially environmentally suitable areas, in addition to consolidating measures to mitigate environmental impacts for the conditions found.

Quantifying past forest cover and biomass changes in the Ecuadorian Amazon

Here, we developed and applied models to quantitatively reconstruct forest cover and biomass changes at three lakes in northwestern Amazonia over the past > 1500 yr. We used remotely sensed data and a modern dataset of 50 Amazonian lakes to develop generalized linear models that predict aboveground biomass, using phytolith morphotypes and forest cover as predictor variables. Also, we applied a published beta regression model to predict forest cover within 200 m of each lake, using Poaceae phytoliths. Charcoal and maize phytoliths were analysed to identify past land use. Results showed forest cover and biomass changes at our study sites ranged between 48-84% and 142-438 Mg ha-1, respectively. Human occupation was discontinuous, with major changes in forest cover and biomass coinciding with periods of land use. Forest cover and biomass decreased notably after fire (at all sites) or cultivation events (Lakes Zancudococha, Kumpaka). The timing and ecological impact of past land use were spatially and temporally variable. Our results suggest past human impact was small-scaled and heterogenous in northwestern Amazonia, with a significant impact of fire on forest cover and biomass changes.

Transformative changes are needed to support socio-bioeconomies for people and ecosystems in the Amazon

Current social-technical and political conditions threaten the integrity of the Amazon biome. Overcoming these lock-ins requires structural transformations away from conventional economies towards 'socio-bioeconomies' (SBEs). SBEs are economies based on the sustainable use and restoration of Amazonian ecosystems, as well as Indigenous and rural livelihood systems in the region. They include sustainable eco-tourism as well as diversified production and innovative processing of fruits, nuts, oils, medicines, fish and other products deriving from socio-biodiversity. Using a sustainability transitions perspective, we argue for multi-scalar policy changes to sustain, enhance and scale-out and scale-up SBE initiatives. To nurture niche SBE acitivities, we advocate for improvements in infrastructure, value chains and social organizations. To dismantle structural barriers, we call for an end to harmful subsidies, greater representation of marginalized communities in territorial planning, enhanced rural-urban and intersectoral linkages, international collaboration, shifts in demand, and changes in conservation and production narratives. Policies for SBEs must also use clear definitions, participatory processes and a multi-biome approach to avoid perverse outcomes.

Analysis of environmental variables and deforestation in the amazon using logistical regression models

In this study, we applied a multivariate logistic regression model to identify deforested areas and evaluate the current effects on environmental variables in the Brazilian state of Rondônia, located in the southwestern Amazon region using data from the MODIS/Terra sensor. The variables albedo, temperature, evapotranspiration, vegetation index, and gross primary productivity were analyzed from 2000 to 2022, with surface type data from the PRODES project as the dependent variable. The accuracy of the models was evaluated by the parameters area under the curve (AUC), pseudo R2, and Akaike information criterion, in addition to statistical tests. The results indicated that deforested areas had higher albedo (25%) and higher surface temperatures (3.2 °C) compared to forested areas. There was a significant reduction of the EVI (16%), indicating water stress, and a decrease in GPP (18%) and ETr (23%) due to the loss of plant biomass. The most precise model (91.6%) included only surface temperature and albedo, providing important information about the environmental impacts of deforestation in humid tropical regions.

A large net carbon loss attributed to anthropogenic and natural disturbances in the Amazon Arc of Deforestation

The Amazon forest contains globally important carbon stocks, but in recent years, atmospheric measurements suggest that it has been releasing more carbon than it has absorbed because of deforestation and forest degradation. Accurately attributing the sources of carbon loss to forest degradation and natural disturbances remains a challenge because of the difficulty of classifying disturbances and simultaneously estimating carbon changes. We used a unique, randomized, repeated, very high-resolution airborne laser scanning survey to provide a direct, detailed, and high-resolution partitioning of aboveground carbon gains and losses in the Brazilian Arc of Deforestation. Our analysis revealed that disturbances directly attributed to human activity impacted 4.2% of the survey area while windthrows and other disturbances affected 2.7% and 14.7%, respectively. Extrapolating the lidar-based statistics to the study area (544,300 km2), we found that 24.1, 24.2, and 14.5 Tg C y-1 were lost through clearing, fires, and logging, respectively. The losses due to large windthrows (21.5 Tg C y-1) and other disturbances (50.3 Tg C y-1) were partially counterbalanced by forest growth (44.1 Tg C y-1). Our high-resolution estimates demonstrated a greater loss of carbon through forest degradation than through deforestation and a net loss of carbon of 90.5 ± 16.6 Tg C y-1 for the study region attributable to both anthropogenic and natural processes. This study highlights the role of forest degradation in the carbon balance for this critical region in the Earth system.

Rates of tree cover loss in key biodiversity areas on Indigenous Peoples' lands

Indigenous Peoples' lands (IPL) cover at least 38 million km2 (28.1%) of Earth's terrestrial surface. These lands can be important for biodiversity conservation. Around 20.7% of IPL intersect areas protected by government (PAs). Many sites of importance for biodiversity within IPL could make a substantial but hitherto unquantified contribution to global site-based conservation targets. Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) represent the largest global network of systematically identified sites of high importance for biodiversity. We assessed the effectiveness of IPL in slowing biodiversity loss inside and outside PAs by quantifying tree cover loss from 2000 to 2019 in KBAs at international and national levels and comparing it with losses at equivalent sites outside mapped IPL. Based on a matched sample of 1-km2 cells in KBAs inside and outside mapped IPL, tree cover loss in KBAs outside PAs was lower inside IPL than outside IPL. By contrast, tree cover loss in KBAs inside PAs was lower outside IPL than inside IPL (although the difference was far smaller). National rates of tree cover loss in KBAs varied greatly in relation to their IPL and PA status. In one half of the 44 countries we examined individually, there was no significant difference in the rate of tree cover loss in KBAs inside and outside mapped IPL. The reasons for this intercountry variation could illuminate the importance of IPL in meeting the Convention on Biological Diversity's ambition of conserving 30% of land by 2030. Critical to this will be coordinated action by governments to strengthen and enforce Indigenous Peoples' rights, secure their collective systems of tenure and governance, and recognize their aspirations for their lands and futures.

Scaling up area-based conservation to implement the Global Biodiversity Framework's 30x30 target: The role of Nature's Strongholds

The Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), signed in 2022 by Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, recognized the importance of area-based conservation, and its goals and targets specify the characteristics of protected and conserved areas (PCAs) that disproportionately contribute to biodiversity conservation. To achieve the GBF's target of conserving a global area of 30% by 2030, this Essay argues for recognizing these characteristics and scaling them up through the conservation of areas that are: extensive (typically larger than 5,000 km2); have interconnected PCAs (either physically or as part of a jurisdictional network, and frequently embedded in larger conservation landscapes); have high ecological integrity; and are effectively managed and equitably governed. These areas are presented as "Nature's Strongholds," illustrated by examples from the Congo and Amazon basins. Conserving Nature's Strongholds offers an approach to scale up initiatives to address global threats to biodiversity.

Assessing inclusiveness for indigenous communities in mineral rights allocation in Ghana

Ghana is blessed with an abundance of mineral resources. These mineral resources are situated in indigenous communities, but the ownership is vested in the government. Indigenous communities where these resources are located are mostly marginalized. Significant legal reforms have been implemented to ensure the inclusivity of these indigenous communities in allocating mineral rights, yet the problem persists. This research investigates the legal framework that governs the allocation of mineral rights in Ghana and the impact thereof on the empowerment of indigenous communities, bringing attention to the difficulties that indigenous communities must overcome to have access to and benefit from mineral resources. To this end, one hundred and eight (108) documents, including legislations and reports on mineral rights allocation in Ghana, were analyzed using thematic analysis. The study found that the current legal framework is deficient in providing sufficient protection for the rights of indigenous communities. Specifically, the absence of a workable scheme for mineral rights allocation from various stakeholders to these indigenous communities is an identifiable lapse in the current legal framework. The findings of this research are relevant to policymakers, legal practitioners, and other stakeholders to improve the rights and well-being of indigenous communities following the analysis of the legal complexities and implications associated with the allocation of mining rights distribution of ensuing royalties inter alia expounded in this paper.

Ecological countermeasures to prevent pathogen spillover and subsequent pandemics

Substantial global attention is focused on how to reduce the risk of future pandemics. Reducing this risk requires investment in prevention, preparedness, and response. Although preparedness and response have received significant focus, prevention, especially the prevention of zoonotic spillover, remains largely absent from global conversations. This oversight is due in part to the lack of a clear definition of prevention and lack of guidance on how to achieve it. To address this gap, we elucidate the mechanisms linking environmental change and zoonotic spillover using spillover of viruses from bats as a case study. We identify ecological interventions that can disrupt these spillover mechanisms and propose policy frameworks for their implementation. Recognizing that pandemics originate in ecological systems, we advocate for integrating ecological approaches alongside biomedical approaches in a comprehensive and balanced pandemic prevention strategy.

Protecting Life and Lung: Protected Areas affect fine particulate matter and respiratory hospitalizations in the Brazilian Amazon Biome

There is growing recognition of the connection between ecosystem conservation and human health. For example, protection of tropical forests can affect the spread of infectious diseases, water quality, and dietary diversity, while forest loss can have important consequences for respiratory health due to the use of fire for converting land to alternative uses in many countries. Studies demonstrating links between ecosystems and health often conclude with recommendations to expand policies that protect natural ecosystems. However, there is little empirical evidence on the extent to which conservation policies actually deliver health benefits when they are implemented in real contexts. We estimate the effects of protected areas (PAs), the dominant type of conservation policy, on hospitalizations for respiratory illness in the Brazilian Amazon biome. We find that doubling upwind PAs reduces PM2.5 by 10% and respiratory hospitalizations by 7% in the months of most active biomass burning. Brazil has an extensive network of PAs, but investments in management and enforcement have declined in recent years. Forest fires have increased dramatically over the same period. We estimate that the value of the health benefits exceed current average expenditures on PA management for the 1/3 of PAs with the largest local populations, although not for PAs in more remote locations. Our findings highlight how quantifying the contributions to the wellbeing of local populations can support conservation objectives, even if global environmental benefits are not a high priority for decision makers.

University indigenous students' perspectives on climate change and survival of indigenous peoples in Brazil: a concept mapping study

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to identify what indigenous university students in Brazil perceived to be important and feasible actions to protect the survival of indigenous peoples from climate change-related impacts.

METHODS

Concept mapping, which is a participatory mixed methodology, was conducted virtually with 20 indigenous students at two universities in Brazil. A focus prompt was developed from consultations with indigenous stakeholders and read "To protect the survival of the Indigenous Peoples from climate change, it is necessary to…". Students brainstormed 46 statements, which they then sorted into clusters based on conceptual similarity. They rated each statement for importance and feasibility. Quantitative multivariate analyses of clusters and ratings were conducted to produce multiple visual maps of perceived actionable priorities. These analyses used the Group Wisdom TM software.

RESULTS

Students agreed on 8 clusters that reflect the factors that influence the survival of indigenous peoples-preservation of lands 0.16 (SD 0.13), protection of demarcated lands 0.31 (SD 0.10), indigenous health and wellbeing 0.35 (SD 0.14), ancestral customs 0.46 (SD 0.04), global and national actions 0.61 (SD 0.13), indigenous rights 0.64 (SD 0.23), collective living 0.71 (SD 0.21), and respect 0.75 (SD 0.14).

DISCUSSION

The most actionable priorities are related to the respect for their lands and customs, educational initiatives in schools about the importance of indigenous peoples to society, guarantees for basic health rights, and culturally appropriate provision of care, with specific mention of mental healthcare. The findings aligned closely with the concept of indigenous self-determination, which is rooted in autonomy and respect for cultural diversity, and the right to make decisions that impact their lives, land, and resources.

Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture

There is global consensus that we must immediately prioritize climate change adaptation-change in response to or anticipation of risks from climate change. Some researchers and policymakers urge 'transformative change', a complete break from past practices, yet report having little data on whether new practices reduce the risks communities face, even over the short term. However, researchers have some leads: human communities have long generated solutions to changing climate, and scientists who study culture have examples of effective and persistent solutions. This theme issue discusses cultural adaptation to climate change, and in this paper, we review how processes of biological adaptation, including innovation, modification, selective retention and transmission, shape the landscapes decision-makers care about-from which solutions emerge in communities, to the spread of effective adaptations, to regional or global collective action. We introduce a comprehensive portal of data and models on cultural adaptation to climate change, and we outline ways forward. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.

Human footprints in the Global South accelerate biomass carbon loss in ecologically sensitive regions

Human activities have placed significant pressure on the terrestrial biosphere, leading to ecosystem degradation and carbon losses. However, the full impact of these activities on terrestrial biomass carbon remains unexplored. In this study, we examined changes in global human footprint (HFP) and human-induced aboveground biomass carbon (AGBC) losses from 2000 to 2018. Our findings show an increasing trend in HFP globally, resulting in the conversion of wilderness areas to highly modified regions. These changes have altered global biomes' habitats, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. We also found accelerated AGBC loss driven by HFP expansion, with a total loss of 19.99 ± 0.196 PgC from 2000 to 2018, especially in tropical regions. Additionally, AGBC is more vulnerable in the Global South than in the Global North. Human activities threaten natural habitats, resulting in increasing AGBC loss even in strictly protected areas. Therefore, scientifically guided planning of future human activities is crucial to protect half of Earth through mitigation and adaptation under future risks of climate change and global urbanization.

Climate co-benefits of tiger conservation

Biodiversity conservation is increasingly being recognized as an important co-benefit in climate change mitigation programmes that use nature-based climate solutions. However, the climate co-benefits of biodiversity conservation interventions, such as habitat protection and restoration, remain understudied. Here we estimate the forest carbon storage co-benefits of a national policy intervention for tiger (Panthera tigris) conservation in India. We used a synthetic control approach to model avoided forest loss and associated carbon emissions reductions in protected areas that underwent enhanced protection for tiger conservation. Over a third of the analysed reserves showed significant but mixed effects, where 24% of all reserves successfully reduced the rate of deforestation and the remaining 9% reported higher-than-expected forest loss. The policy had a net positive benefit with over 5,802 hectares of averted forest loss, corresponding to avoided emissions of 1.08 ± 0.51 MtCO2 equivalent between 2007 and 2020. This translated to US$92.55 ± 43.56 million in ecosystem services from the avoided social cost of emissions and potential revenue of US$6.24 ± 2.94 million in carbon offsets. Our findings offer an approach to quantitatively track the carbon sequestration co-benefits of a species conservation strategy and thus help align the objectives of climate action and biodiversity conservation.

The climatic risk of Amazonian protected areas is driven by climate velocity until 2050

Changes in species distribution in response to climate change might challenge the territorial boundaries of protected areas. Amazonia is one of the global regions most at risk of developing long distances between current and future analogous climates and the emergence of climate conditions without analogs in the past. As a result, species present within the network of Protected Areas (PAs) of Amazonia may be threatened throughout the 21st century. In this study, we investigated climate velocity based on future and past climate-analogs using forward and backward directions in the network of PAs of Amazonia, in order to assess the climatic risk of these areas to climate change and verify their effectiveness in maintaining the current climate conditions. Using current (1970-2000) and future (2041-2060) average annual air temperature and precipitation data with a resolution of 10 km, climate velocities across the entire Amazon biome and average climate velocities of PAs and Indigenous Lands (ILs) were evaluated. The results show that the effects of backward velocity will be greater than that of forward velocity in the Amazon biome. However, the PA network will be less exposed to backward velocity impacts than unprotected areas (UAs)-emphasizing the importance of these areas as a conservation tool. In contrast, for the forward velocity impacts, the PA network will be slightly more exposed than UAs-indicating that the current spatial arrangement of the PA network is still not the most suitable to minimize impacts of a possible climate redistribution. In addition, a large extent of no-analog climates for backward velocities was found in central Amazonia, indicating that high temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns in this region will surpass the historical variability of the entire biome, making it a potentially isolated and unsuitable climatic envelope for species in the future. Most of the no-analog climates are in PAs, however the climate risks in ILs should also be highlighted since they presented higher climate velocities than PAs in both metrics. Our projections contrast with the median latitudinal migration rate of 2 km/year observed in most ecosystems and taxonomic groups studied so far and suggest the need for median migration rates of 7.6 km/year. Thus, despite the important role of PAs and ILs as conservation tools, they are not immune to the effects of climate change and new management strategies, specific to each area and that allow adaptation to global changes, will be necessary.

The effectiveness of global protected areas for climate change mitigation

Forests play a critical role in stabilizing Earth's climate. Establishing protected areas (PAs) represents one approach to forest conservation, but PAs were rarely created to mitigate climate change. The global impact of PAs on the carbon cycle has not previously been quantified due to a lack of accurate global-scale carbon stock maps. Here we used ~412 million lidar samples from NASA's GEDI mission to estimate a total PA aboveground carbon (C) stock of 61.43 Gt (+/- 0.31), 26% of all mapped terrestrial woody C. Of this total, 9.65 + /- 0.88 Gt of additional carbon was attributed to PA status. These higher C stocks are primarily from avoided emissions from deforestation and degradation in PAs compared to unprotected forests. This total is roughly equivalent to one year of annual global fossil fuel emissions. These results underscore the importance of conservation of high biomass forests for avoiding carbon emissions and preserving future sequestration.

Collective property rights lead to secondary forest growth in the Brazilian Amazon

Forests serve a crucial role in our fight against climate change. Secondary forests provide important potential for conservation of biodiversity and climate change mitigation. In this paper, we explore whether collective property rights in the form of indigenous territories (ITs) lead to higher rates of secondary forest growth in previously deforested areas. We exploit the timing of granting of property rights, the geographic boundaries of ITs and two different methods, regression discontinuity design and difference-in-difference, to recover causal estimates. We find strong evidence that indigenous territories with secure tenure not only reduce deforestation inside their lands but also lead to higher secondary forest growth on previously deforested areas. After receiving full property rights, land inside ITs displayed higher secondary forest growth than land outside ITs, with an estimated effect of 5% using our main RDD specification, and 2.21% using our difference-in-difference research design. Furthermore, we estimate that the average age of secondary forests was 2.2 y older inside ITs with secure tenure using our main RDD specification, and 2.8 y older when using our difference-in-difference research design. Together, these findings provide evidence for the role that collective property rights can play in the push to restore forest ecosystems.

Bridging archaeology and marine conservation in the Neotropics

Anthropogenic impacts on tropical and subtropical coastal environments are increasing at an alarming rate, compromising ecosystem functions, structures and services. Understanding the scale of marine population decline and diversity loss requires a long-term perspective that incorporates information from a range of sources. The Southern Atlantic Ocean represents a major gap in our understanding of pre-industrial marine species composition. Here we begin to fill this gap by performing an extensive review of the published data on Middle and Late Holocene marine fish remains along the southern coast of Brazil. This region preserves archaeological sites that are unique archives of past socio-ecological systems and pre-European biological diversity. We assessed snapshots of species compositions and relative abundances spanning the last 9500 years, and modelled differences in species' functional traits between archaeological and modern fisheries. We found evidence for both generalist and specialist fishing practices in pre-European times, with large body size and body mass caught regularly over hundreds of years. Comparison with modern catches revealed a significant decline in these functional traits, possibly associated with overfishing and escalating human impacts in recent times.

Designing an optimized landscape restoration with spatially interdependent non-linear models

Brazilian Atlantic Forest is a biodiversity hotspot drastically fragmented due to different land use practices. Our understanding on the impacts of fragmentation and restoration practices on ecosystem functionality significantly increased during the last decades. However, it is unknown to our knowledge how a precision restoration approach, integrated with landscape metrics, will affect the decision-making process of forest restoration. Here, we applied Landscape Shape Index and Contagion metrics in a genetic algorithm for planning forest restoration in watersheds at the pixel level. We evaluated how such integration may configure the precision of restoration with scenarios related to landscape ecology metrics. The genetic algorithm worked toward optimizing the site, shape, and size of forest patches across the landscape according to the results obtained in applying the metrics. Our results, obtained by simulations of scenarios, support aggregation of forest restoration zones as expected, with priority restoration areas indicated where most of the aggregation of forest patches occurs. Our optimized solutions for the study area (Santa Maria do Rio Doce Watershed) predicted an important improvement of landscape metrics (LSI = 44 %; Contagion/LSI = 73 %). Largest shifts are suggested based on LSI (i.e., three larger fragments) and Contagion/LSI (i.e., only one well-connected fragment) optimizations. Our findings indicate that restoration in an extremely fragmented landscape will promote a shift toward more connected patches and with reduction of the surface:volume ratio. Our work explores the use of genetic algorithms to propose forest restoration based on landscape ecology metrics in a spatially explicit innovative approach. Our results indicate that LSI and Contagion:LSI ratio may affect the choice concerning precise location of restoration sites based on forest fragments scattered in the landscape and reinforce the usefulness of genetic algorithms to yield an optimized-driven solution for restoration initiatives.

Dung beetles from two sustainable-use protected forests in the Brazilian Amazon

Background

The Amazon Forest is one of the world's most biodiverse ecosystems and yet its protected areas are understudied concerning insects and other invertebrates. These organisms are essential for tropical forests due to their ecological processes, with some species being very sensitive to habitat disturbances. Dung beetles (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae, Scarabaeinae) have been used as bioindicators for more than 30 years and were surveyed to assess the insect biodiversity of two sustainable-use forest reserves in the Brazilian Amazon.

New information

We report inventories of dung beetles from two Amazonian forest reserves in Pará State, Brazil: the Tapajós National Forest and the Carajás National Forest. Surveys were carried out with baited-pitfall traps installed in 2010, 2016, 2017 and 2019. We collected a total of 3,772 individuals from 19 genera and 96 species. We highlight the importance of Amazonian protected areas as refugia for insect biodiversity, particularly dung beetles, which contribute to many key ecosystem processes.

The spatial and temporal distribution of China’s forest carbon

Introduction

China’s forests have sequestrated a significant amount of carbon over the past two decades. However, it is not clear whether China’s forests will be able to continue to have as much carbon sequestration potential capacity in the future.

Methods

In order to research China’s forest carbon storage and carbon sequestration potential capacities at spatial and temporal scales, we built a digital forest model for each province of China using the data from The China Forest Resources Report (2014– 2018) and calculated the carbon storage capacity and sequestration potential capacity of each province with the current management practices without considering natural successions.

Results

The results showed that the current forest carbon storage is 10.0 Pg C, and the carbon sequestration potential in the next 40 years (from year 2019 to 2058) will be 5.04 Pg C. Since immature forests account for the majority of current forests, the carbon sequestration capacity of the forest was also high (0.202 Pg C year−1). However, the forest carbon storage reached the maximum with the increase of stand maturity. At this time, if scenarios such as afforestation and reforestation, human and natural disturbances, and natural succession are not considered, the carbon sequestration capacity of forests will continue to decrease. After 90 years, all stands will develop into mature and over-mature forests, and the forest carbon sequestration capacity is 0.008 Pg year−1; and the carbon sequestration rate is ~4% of what it is nowadays. The change trend of forest carbon in each province is consistent with that of the country. In addition, considering the large forest coverage area in China, the differences in tree species and growing conditions, the forest carbon storage and carbon sequestration capacities among provinces were different. The growth rate of carbon density in high-latitude provinces (such as Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia) was lower than that in the south (Guangdong, Guangxi, or Hunan), but the forest carbon potential was higher.

Discussion

Planning and implementing targeted forest management strategies is the key to increasing forest carbon storage and extending the service time of forest carbon sinks in provinces. In order to reach the national carbon neutrality goals, we recommend that each province have an informative strategic forest management plan.

Impending anthropogenic threats and protected area prioritization for jaguars in the Brazilian Amazon

Jaguars (Panthera onca) exert critical top-down control over large vertebrates across the Neotropics. Yet, this iconic species have been declining due to multiple threats, such as habitat loss and hunting, which are rapidly increasing across the New World tropics. Based on geospatial layers, we extracted socio-environmental variables for 447 protected areas across the Brazilian Amazon to identify those that merit short-term high-priority efforts to maximize jaguar persistence. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and comparisons of measures of central tendency. Our results reveal that areas containing the largest jaguar densities and the largest estimated population sizes are precisely among those confronting most anthropogenic threats. Jaguars are threatened in the world's largest tropical forest biome by deforestation associated with anthropogenic fires, and the subsequent establishment of pastures. By contrasting the highest threats with the highest jaguar population sizes in a bivariate plot, we provide a shortlist of the top-10 protected areas that should be prioritized for immediate jaguar conservation efforts and 74 for short-term action. Many of these are located at the deforestation frontier or in important boundaries with neighboring countries (e.g., Peruvian, Colombian and Venezuelan Amazon). The predicament of a safe future for jaguars can only be ensured if protected areas persist and resist downgrading and downsizing due to both external anthropogenic threats and geopolitical pressures (e.g., infrastructure development and frail law enforcement).

Effects of forest degradation classification on the uncertainty of aboveground carbon estimates in the Amazon

BACKGROUND

Tropical forests are critical for the global carbon budget, yet they have been threatened by deforestation and forest degradation by fire, selective logging, and fragmentation. Existing uncertainties on land cover classification and in biomass estimates hinder accurate attribution of carbon emissions to specific forest classes. In this study, we used textural metrics derived from PlanetScope images to implement a probabilistic classification framework to identify intact, logged and burned forests in three Amazonian sites. We also estimated biomass for these forest classes using airborne lidar and compared biomass uncertainties using the lidar-derived estimates only to biomass uncertainties considering the forest degradation classification as well.

RESULTS

Our classification approach reached overall accuracy of 0.86, with accuracy at individual sites varying from 0.69 to 0.93. Logged forests showed variable biomass changes, while burned forests showed an average carbon loss of 35%. We found that including uncertainty in forest degradation classification significantly increased uncertainty and decreased estimates of mean carbon density in two of the three test sites.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that the attribution of biomass changes to forest degradation classes needs to account for the uncertainty in forest degradation classification. By combining very high-resolution images with lidar data, we could attribute carbon stock changes to specific pathways of forest degradation. This approach also allows quantifying uncertainties of carbon emissions associated with forest degradation through logging and fire. Both the attribution and uncertainty quantification provide critical information for national greenhouse gas inventories.

Catalyzing success in community-based conservation

Efforts to devolve rights and engage Indigenous Peoples and local communities in conservation have increased the demand for evidence of the efficacy of community-based conservation (CBC) and insights into what enables its success. We examined the human well-being and environmental outcomes of a diverse set of 128 CBC projects. Over 80% of CBC projects had some positive human well-being or environmental outcomes, although just 32% achieved positive outcomes for both (i.e., combined success). We coded 57 total national-, community-, and project-level variables and controls from this set, performed random forest classification to identify the variables most important to combined success, and calculated accumulated local effects to describe their individual influence on the probability of achieving it. The best predictors of combined success were 17 variables suggestive of various recommendations and opportunities for conservation practitioners related to national contexts, community characteristics, and the implementation of various strategies and interventions informed by existing CBC frameworks. Specifically, CBC projects had higher probabilities of combined success when they occurred in national contexts supportive of local governance, confronted challenges to collective action, promoted economic diversification, and invested in various capacity-building efforts. Our results provide important insights into how to encourage greater success in CBC.

Declining Amazon biomass due to deforestation and subsequent degradation losses exceeding gains

In the Amazon, deforestation and climate change lead to increased vulnerability to forest degradation, threatening its existing carbon stocks and its capacity as a carbon sink. We use satellite L-Band Vegetation Optical Depth (L-VOD) data that provide an integrated (top-down) estimate of biomass carbon to track changes over 2011-2019. Because the spatial resolution of L-VOD is coarse (0.25°), it allows limited attribution of the observed changes. We therefore combined high-resolution annual maps of forest cover and disturbances with biomass maps to model carbon losses (bottom-up) from deforestation and degradation, and gains from regrowing secondary forests. We show an increase of deforestation and associated degradation losses since 2012 which greatly outweigh secondary forest gains. Degradation accounted for 40% of gross losses. After an increase in 2011, old-growth forests show a net loss of above-ground carbon between 2012 and 2019. The sum of component carbon fluxes in our model is consistent with the total biomass change from L-VOD of 1.3 Pg C over 2012-2019. Across nine Amazon countries, we found that while Brazil contains the majority of biomass stocks (64%), its losses from disturbances were disproportionately high (79% of gross losses). Our multi-source analysis provides a pessimistic assessment of the Amazon carbon balance and highlights the urgent need to stop the recent rise of deforestation and degradation, particularly in the Brazilian Amazon.

The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation

Approximately 2.5 × 10⁶ square kilometers of the Amazon forest are currently degraded by fire, edge effects, timber extraction, and/or extreme drought, representing 38% of all remaining forests in the region. Carbon emissions from this degradation total up to 0.2 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year^-1), which is equivalent to, if not greater than, the emissions from Amazon deforestation (0.06 to 0.21 Pg C year^-1). Amazon forest degradation can reduce dry-season evapotranspiration by up to 34% and cause as much biodiversity loss as deforestation in human-modified landscapes, generating uneven socioeconomic burdens, mainly to forest dwellers. Projections indicate that degradation will remain a dominant source of carbon emissions independent of deforestation rates. Policies to tackle degradation should be integrated with efforts to curb deforestation and complemented with innovative measures addressing the disturbances that degrade the Amazon forest.

Local working collections as the foundation for an integrated conservation of Theobroma cacao L. in Latin America

The intraspecific diversity of cacao has traditionally been preserved in genebanks. However, these establishments face various challenges, notably insufficient funding, accession redundancy, misidentification and lack of wild cacao population samples. In natural environments, it is expected that unknown varieties of cacao may still be found, but wild populations of cacao are increasingly threatened by climate change, deforestation, habitat loss, land use changes and poor knowledge. Farmers also retain diversity, but on-farm conservation is affected by geopolitical, economic, management and cultural issues, that are influenced at multiple scales, from the household to the international market. Taking separately, ex situ, in situ and on-farm conservation have not achieved adequate conservation fostering the inclusion of all stakeholders and the broad use of cacao diversity. We analyze the use of the traditional conservation strategies (ex situ, in situ and on-farm) and propose an integrated approach based on local working collections to secure cacao diversity in the long term. We argue that national conservation networks should be implemented in countries of origin to simultaneously maximize alpha (diversity held in any given working collection), beta (the change in diversity between working collections in different regions) and gamma diversity (overall diversity in a country).

Overlooked jaguar guardians: Indigenous territories and range-wide conservation of a cultural icon

Indigenous territories (ITs) are an integral component of global conservation strategies. We evaluate the range-wide overlap of ITs and the distribution of the jaguar (Panthera onca), a Neotropical apex predator with considerable cultural significance among Indigenous Peoples. We quantified overlap between protected areas (PAs) and ITs among: (1) jaguar range, (2) the species' core habitats, known as Jaguar Conservation Units (JCUs), and (3) corridors connecting JCUs. We further evaluated deforestation rates between 2000 and 2020 among protected, unprotected, and indigenous portions of JCUs and corridors and compared jaguar density estimates among these land tenures. Our results indicate that ITs overlap 27.7% of jaguar range. South American JCUs and corridors, which comprise ~ 94% of jaguar distribution, experienced significantly less deforestation where ITs intersected PAs. We documented an unbalanced ratio of jaguar density estimates between indigenous and non-indigenous areas, highlighting the need for more representative sampling. Collaborative approaches for jaguar conservation, informed and guided by indigenous knowledge, can support more inclusive and effective monitoring that reduces dependence on external support.

Hot spots and anomalies of CO2 over eastern Amazonia, Brazil: A time series from 2015 to 2018

The easternmost Amazon, located in the Maranhão State, in Brazil, has suffered massive deforestation in recent years, which has devastated almost 80% of the original vegetation. We aim to characterize hot spots, hot moments, atmospheric carbon dioxide anomalies (Xco₂, ppm), and their interactions with climate and vegetation indices in eastern Amazon, using data from NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2). The study covered the period from January 2015 to December 2018. The data were subjected to regression, correlation, and temporal analysis, identifying the spatial distribution of hot/cold moments and hot/cold spots. In addition, anomalies were calculated to identify potential CO₂ sources and sinks. Temporal changes indicate atmospheric Xco₂ in the range from 362.2 to 403.4 ppm. Higher Xco₂ values (hot moments) were concentrated between May and September, with some peaks in December. The lowest values (cold moments) were concentrated from November to April. SIF 771 W m^-2 sr^-1 μm^-1 explained the temporal changes of Xco₂ in 58% (R² adj = 0.58; p < 0.001) and precipitation in 27% (R² adj = 0.27; p ≤ 0.001). Spatial hot spots with 90% confidence were more representative in 2016. The maximum and minimum Xco₂ (ppm) anomalies were 6.19 ppm (source) and -6.29 ppm (sink), respectively. We conclude that the hot moments of Xco₂ in the eastern Amazon rainforest are concentrated in the dry season of the year. Xco₂ spatial hot spots and anomalies are concentrated in the southern region and close to protected areas of the Amazon rainforest.

Nature-based climate solutions require a mix of socioeconomic and governance attributes

Nature-based climate solutions (NCS) can play a crucial role in reducing climate change. There is, however, a lack of understanding of the biophysical, social, and political contexts surrounding NCS, which hampers its practical implementation. Here, we used estimates of carbon sink potential to identify socioeconomic and ecological factors that may stimulate NCS implementation in developing economies. We considered carbon sink potential for eight NCS, including reforestation, peatland restoration, natural forest management, improved rice cultivation, optimal grazing intensity, grazing (legumes), avoided peatland impacts, and avoided coastal impacts. Food insecurity hotspots, which currently receive the most development aid, have the lowest likelihood of realizing NCS' potential. Poor governance structures and food insecurity impede the implementation of NCS projects at the country level. By carefully assessing complementary food security, sustainable financing, and soil quality safeguards, NCS as a nationally determined contribution to climate mitigation can be made more effective.

Forest conservation: Importance of Indigenous lands

Forested Indigenous lands typically maintain high levels of forest integrity. A new study found that this is particularly true for Indigenous lands within tropical protected areas. Better recognising the importance of Indigenous lands is key to new global conservation goals.

Indigenous lands in protected areas have high forest integrity across the tropics

Intact tropical forests have a high conservation value.¹ Although perceived as wild,² they have been under long-term human influence.³ As global area-based conservation targets increase, the ecological contributions of Indigenous peoples through their governance institutions and practices⁴ are gaining mainstream interest. Indigenous lands-covering a quarter of Earth's surface⁵ and overlapping with a third of intact forests⁶-often have reduced deforestation, degradation, and carbon emissions, compared with non-protected areas and protected areas.^7,8 A key question with implications for the design of more equitable and effective conservation policies is to understand the impacts of Indigenous lands on forest integrity and long-term use, as critical measures of ecosystem health included within the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework.⁹ Using the forest landscape integrity index¹⁰ and Anthromes¹¹ datasets, we find that high-integrity forests tend to be located within the overlap of protected areas and Indigenous lands (protected-Indigenous areas). After accounting for location biases through statistical matching and regression, protected-Indigenous areas had the highest protective effect on forest integrity and the lowest land-use intensity relative to Indigenous lands, protected areas, and non-protected controls pan-tropically. The protective effect of Indigenous lands on forest integrity was lower in Indigenous lands than in protected areas and non-protected areas in the Americas and Asia. The combined positive effects of state legislation and Indigenous presence in protected-Indigenous areas may contribute to maintaining tropical forest integrity. Understanding management and governance in protected-Indigenous areas can help states to appropriately support community-governed lands.

Anthropogenic influences on the distribution of a threatened apex-predator around sustainable-use reserves following hydropower dam installation

Although previous studies demonstrate declines in many large bodied species following hydropower dam installation, others suggest that some species, including the giant otter (Pteronura brasiliensis) may return to newly created reservoir habitats. Yet, there is a lack of evidence to support such theories. Here, we analyzed the effects of a hydropower dam on giant otters using a before-after control-impact study design in the eastern Brazilian Amazon. We collected data 3 years before (2011-2012 and 2015) and after (2017-2019) dam construction, totaling 6,459 km of surveys along rivers with 43 direct sightings of giant otters. Contrary to expectations, our results revealed that giant otters did not remain nor did they return to the dam reservoir. Beyond the zone directly impacted by the dam giant otter occurrence and relative abundance declined next to sustainable-use reserves where the river was more intensely used by people. Our study showed that in the absence of active management sustainable-use reserves and low human density were not sufficient to maintain this apex-predator. Our findings suggest a need to proactively create and maintain areas with low levels of anthropogenic disturbance to enable sustainable coexistence between energy demands and biodiversity across Amazonia.

Feedback in tropical forests of the Anthropocene

Tropical forests are complex systems containing myriad interactions and feedbacks with their biotic and abiotic environments, but as the world changes fast, the future of these ecosystems becomes increasingly uncertain. In particular, global stressors may unbalance the feedbacks that stabilize tropical forests, allowing other feedbacks to propel undesired changes in the whole ecosystem. Here, we review the scientific literature across various fields, compiling known interactions of tropical forests with their environment, including the global climate, rainfall, aerosols, fire, soils, fauna, and human activities. We identify 170 individual interactions among 32 elements that we present as a global tropical forest network, including countless feedback loops that may emerge from different combinations of interactions. We illustrate our findings with three cases involving urgent sustainability issues: (1) wildfires in wetlands of South America; (2) forest encroachment in African savanna landscapes; and (3) synergistic threats to the peatland forests of Borneo. Our findings reveal an unexplored world of feedbacks that shape the dynamics of tropical forests. The interactions and feedbacks identified here can guide future qualitative and quantitative research on the complexities of tropical forests, allowing societies to manage the nonlinear responses of these ecosystems in the Anthropocene.

Global importance of Indigenous Peoples, their lands, and knowledge systems for saving the world's primates from extinction

Primates, represented by 521 species, are distributed across 91 countries primarily in the Neotropic, Afrotropic, and Indo-Malayan realms. Primates inhabit a wide range of habitats and play critical roles in sustaining healthy ecosystems that benefit human and nonhuman communities. Approximately 68% of primate species are threatened with extinction because of global pressures to convert their habitats for agricultural production and the extraction of natural resources. Here, we review the scientific literature and conduct a spatial analysis to assess the significance of Indigenous Peoples' lands in safeguarding primate biodiversity. We found that Indigenous Peoples' lands account for 30% of the primate range, and 71% of primate species inhabit these lands. As their range on these lands increases, primate species are less likely to be classified as threatened or have declining populations. Safeguarding Indigenous Peoples' lands, languages, and cultures represents our greatest chance to prevent the extinction of the world's primates.

The global potential for increased storage of carbon on land

SignificanceDespite increased interest in land-based carbon storage as a climate solution, there are physical limits on how much additional carbon can be incorporated into terrestrial ecosystems. To effectively determine where and how to act, jurisdictions need robust data illustrating the magnitude and distribution of opportunities to increase carbon storage, as well as information on the actions available to achieve that storage. Here, we provide globally consistent maps for directing additional carbon storage under current and future climate, as well as a framework for determining how that storage could be gained through restoration, improved management, or maintenance of woody biomass and soil organic matter. Our estimates provide an upper bound on how improved land stewardship can mitigate the climate crisis.

Microbial Biomass Is More Important than Runoff Export in Predicting Soil Inorganic Nitrogen Concentrations Following Forest Conversion in Subtropical China

Elevated runoff export and declines in soil microbial biomass and enzyme activity following forest conversion are known to reduce soil inorganic nitrogen (N) but their relative importance remains poorly understood. To explore their relative importance, we examined soil inorganic N (NH4+ and NO3−) concentrations in relation to microbial biomass, enzyme activity, and runoff export of inorganic N in a mature secondary forest, young (five years old) Castanopsis carlessi and Cunninghamia lanceolate (Chinese fir) plantations, and forests developing through assisted natural regeneration (ANR). The surface runoff export of inorganic N was greater, but fine root biomass, soil microbial biomass, enzyme activity, and inorganic N concentrations were smaller in the young plantations than the secondary forest and the young ANR forests. Microbial biomass, enzyme activity, and runoff inorganic N export explained 84% and 82% of the variation of soil NH4+ and NO3− concentrations, respectively. Soil microbial biomass contributed 61% and 94% of the explaining power for the variation of soil NH4+ and NO3− concentrations, respectively, among the forests. Positive relationships between microbial enzyme activity and soil inorganic N concentrations were likely mediated via microbial biomass as it was highly correlated with microbial enzyme activity. Although surface runoff export can reduce soil inorganic N, the effect attenuated a few years after forest conversion. By contrast, the differences in microbial biomass persisted for a long time, leading to its dominance in regulating soil inorganic N concentrations. Our results highlight that most of the variation in soil inorganic N concentration following forest conversion was related to soil microbial biomass and that assisted natural regeneration can effectively conserve soil N.

Deforestation in Continental Ecuador with a Focus on Protected Areas

Forest conservation is of particular concern in tropical regions where a large refuge of biodiversity is still existing. These areas are threatened by deforestation, forest degradation and fragmentation. Especially, pressures of anthropogenic activities adjacent to these areas significantly influence conservation effectiveness. Ecuador was chosen as study area since it is a globally relevant center of forest ecosystems and biodiversity. We identified hotspots of deforestation on the national level of continental Ecuador between 1990 and 2018, analyzed the most significant drivers of deforestation on national and biome level (the Coast, the Andes, The Amazon) as well as inside protected areas in Ecuador by using multiple regression analysis. We separated the national system of protected areas (SNAP) into higher and lower protection levels. Besides SNAP, we also considered Biosphere Reserves (BRs) and Ramsar sites. In addition, we investigated the rates and spatial patterns of deforestation in protected areas and buffer zones (5 km and 10 km outwards the protected area boundaries) using landscape metrics. Between 1990 and 2018, approximately 4% of the accumulated deforestation occurred within the boundaries of SNAP, and up to 25.5% in buffer zones. The highest rates of deforestation have been found in the 5 km buffer zone around the protected areas with the highest protection level. Protected areas and their buffer zones with higher protection status were identified as the most deforested areas among SNAP. BRs had the highest deforestation rates among all protected areas but most of these areas just became BRs after the year 2000. The most important driver of deforestation is agriculture. Other relevant drivers differ between the biomes. The results suggest that the SNAP is generally effective to prevent deforestation within their protection boundaries. However, deforestation around protected areas can undermine conservation strategies to sustain biodiversity. Actions to address such dynamics and patterns of deforestation and forest fragmentation, and developing conservation strategies of their landscape context are urgently needed especially in the buffer zones of areas with the highest protection status.

Briquettes of acai seeds: characterization of the biomass and influence of the parameters of production temperature and pressure in the physical-mechanical and energy quality

Agro-industries, leveraged by the high demand of acai products, promote environmental impact through the generation of wastes in several locals in Amazon. The use with bioenergetic purposes has capacity to mitigate these scenario. Thus, the aim of the study was to characterize the biomass of acai seeds and establish the technical parameters of temperature and pressure of work to the production of briquettes of physical, mechanical and thermal quality. Temperatures of 120, 140 and 160 °C; and pressures of 15, 20 and 25 MPa were studied. We analyzed the briquettes mechanical compressive strength, rate of water absorption, rate of volumetric expansion and energy and apparent density. To the characterization of in natura seeds, the proximate analysis, chemical composition (extractives, holocellulose and lignin contents), higher, lower and useful heating value were determined. The proximate analysis indicated biomass thermal resistance, potential to direct burning and conversion by thermochemical processes. The lignin content may increase briquettes compressive strength produced in high temperatures. It was observed that the temperature had more influence in the evaluated briquettes characteristics than the pressure. The compressive strength was greater in 160 °C and 15 MPa briquettes, indicating that the lignin works as binder in this temperature, however, with pressure improvement the resistance is not favored due to the limit of resistance to compaction. The rate of water absorption decreased with the pressure increase and the temperature statistically affected in 140 °C briquettes. We observed volumetric expansion values in consonance to other found in dense biofuels of the literature. Further, the apparent density and energy density were favored by pressure improvement and the temperature helped in the increase of the apparent density. Moreover, the produced briquettes presented gain in the apparent density regarding the in natura biomass and had energy density comparable to coal and adequate to co-firing in boilers.

Southeast Asian protected areas are effective in conserving forest cover and forest carbon stocks compared to unprotected areas

Protected areas aim to conserve nature, ecosystem services, and cultural values; however, they have variable success in doing so under high development pressure. Southeast Asian protected areas faced the highest level of human pressure at the turn of the twenty-first century. To estimate their effectiveness in conserving forest cover and forest carbon stocks for 2000–2018, we used statistical matching methods to control for the non-random location of protected areas, to compare protection against a matched counterfactual. We found Southeast Asian protected areas had three times less forest cover loss than similar landscapes without protection. Protected areas that had completed management reporting using the Management Effectiveness Tracking Tool (METT) conserved significantly more forest cover and forest carbon stocks than those that had not. Management scores were positively associated with the level of carbon emissions avoided, but not the level of forest cover loss avoided. Our study is the first to find that METT scores could predict the level of carbon emissions avoided in protected areas. Given that only 11% of protected areas in Southeast Asia had completed METT surveys, our results illustrate the need to scale-up protected area management effectiveness reporting programs to improve their effectiveness for conserving forests, and for storing and sequestering carbon.

Non-Structural Flood Management in European Rural Mountain Areas—Are Scientists Supporting Implementation?

Mountain areas are highly exposed to flood risks. The latter are increasing in the context of climate change, urbanization, and land use changes. Non-structural approaches such as nature-based solutions can provide opportunities to reduce the risks of such natural hazards and provide further ecological, social, and economic benefits. However, few non-structural flood mitigation measures are implemented in rural mountain areas so far. The objective of this paper is to investigate if the scientific boundaries limit the implementation of non-structural flood management in rural mountain areas. In the study, we statistically analyzed the knowledge about flood management through a systematic literature review and expert surveys, with a focus on European rural mountain areas. Both methods showed that scientific knowledge is available for decision makers and that nature-based solutions are efficient, cost-effective, multifunctional, and have potential for large-scale implementation.

Analysis of how the spatial and temporal patterns of fire and their bioclimatic and anthropogenic drivers vary across the Amazon rainforest in El Niño and non-El Niño years

In the past two decades, Amazon rainforest countries (Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Peru and Venezuela) have experienced a substantial increase in fire frequency due to the changes in the patterns of different anthropogenic and climatic drivers. This study examines how both fire dynamics and bioclimatic factors varied based on the season (wet season and dry season) El Niño years across the different countries and ecosystems within the Amazon rainforest. Data from publicly available databases on forest fires (Global Fire Atlas) and bioclimatic, topographic and anthropogenic variables were employed in the analysis. Linear mixed-effect models discovered that year type (El Niño vs. non-El Niño), seasonality (dry vs. wet), land cover and forest strata (in terms of canopy cover and intactness) and their interactions varied across the Amazonian countries (and the different ecosystems) under consideration. A machine learning model, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS), was utilized to determine the relative importance of climatic, topographic, forest structure and human modification variables on fire dynamics across wet and dry seasons, both in El Niño and non-El Niño years. The findings of this study make clear that declining precipitation and increased temperatures have strong impact on fire dynamics (size, duration, expansion and speed) for El Niño years. El Niño years also saw greater fire sizes and speeds as compared to non-El Niño years. Dense and relatively undisturbed forests were found to have the lowest fire activity and increased human impact on a landscape was associated with exacerbated fire dynamics, especially in the El Niño years. Additionally, the presence of grass-dominated ecosystems such as grasslands also acted as a driver of fire in both El Niño and non-El Niño years. Hence, from a conservation perspective, increased interventions during the El Niño periods should be considered.

Wild meat consumption in tropical forests spares a significant carbon footprint from the livestock production sector

Whether sustainable or not, wild meat consumption is a reality for millions of tropical forest dwellers. Yet estimates of spared greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from consuming wild meat, rather than protein from the livestock sector, have not been quantified. We show that a mean per capita wild meat consumption of 41.7 kg yr⁻¹ for a population of ~ 150,000 residents at 49 Amazonian and Afrotropical forest sites can spare ~ 71 MtCO₂-eq annually under a bovine beef substitution scenario, but only ~ 3 MtCO₂-eq yr⁻¹ if this demand is replaced by poultry. Wild meat offtake by these communities could generate US$3M or US$185K in carbon credit revenues under an optimistic scenario (full compliance with the Paris Agreement by 2030; based on a carbon price of US$50/tCO₂-eq) and US$1M or US$77K under a conservative scenario (conservative carbon price of US$20.81/tCO₂-eq), representing considerable incentives for forest conservation and potential revenues for local communities. However, the wild animal protein consumption of ~ 43% of all consumers in our sample was below the annual minimum per capita rate required to prevent human malnutrition. We argue that managing wild meat consumption can serve the interests of climate change mitigation efforts in REDD + accords through avoided GHG emissions from the livestock sector, but this requires wildlife management that can be defined as verifiably sustainable.