Estimating the burden of disease and the economic cost attributable to chikungunya, Colombia, 2014

Assessing chikungunya's economic burden and impact on health-related quality of life: Two systematic literature reviews

BACKGROUND

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), transmitted through Aedes mosquitoes, has witnessed a global surge in distribution and outbreaks, posing a significant public health threat. This study conducted two systematic literature reviews (SLRs) to examine the socio-economic burden associated with chikungunya.

METHODS

Two SLRs were conducted employing the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses 2020 (PRISMA 2020) standards. The SLRs covered electronic databases, grey literature, and bibliographic searches. Inclusion criteria were guided by the PICOS (Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcomes, Study type) framework.

FINDINGS

A total of 34 studies on cost and resource use and 37 studies on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) were included. Direct costs, driven by hospitalization, consultations, diagnostics, and drugs, were frequently reported, with significant variability across studies. Indirect costs, mainly attributed to absenteeism, constituted a substantial portion of the total economic burden. HRQoL studies consistently revealed high pain levels and diminished physical functioning among chikungunya patients, particularly in chronic cases, where these impacts persisted for months to years.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the significant economic and public health impact of chikungunya, driven by high treatment costs, productivity losses, and chronic disability. Despite the severity of the disease, limited awareness regarding the severity and economic burden, particularly in resource-limited regions, persists. Our findings underscore the need for targeted public health strategies, standardized management approaches, and increased research to better understand the socio-economic burden of the disease and inform effective interventions.

The global health and economic burden of chikungunya from 2011 to 2020: a model-driven analysis on the impact of an emerging vector-borne disease

INTRODUCTION

Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne arboviral disease posing an emerging global public health threat. Understanding the global burden of chikungunya is critical for designing effective prevention and control strategies. However, current estimates of the economic and health impact of chikungunya remain limited and are potentially underestimated. This study aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the chikungunya burden worldwide.

METHODS

We analysed the global burden of chikungunya between 2011 and 2020 and calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and direct and indirect costs using a data-driven simulation model. The main outcomes were the number of cases, the total DALY burden, and the direct and indirect costs of acute and chronic chikungunya between 2011 and 2020.

RESULTS

Our study revealed a total of 18.7 million chikungunya cases in 110 countries between 2011 and 2020, causing 1.95 million DALYs. Most of this burden was found in the Latin American and Caribbean region. The total economic burden caused by chikungunya over these 10 years was estimated at $2.8 billion in direct costs and $47.1 billion in indirect costs worldwide. Long-term chronic illness was the source of most costs and DALYs.

CONCLUSION

Chikungunya has a higher disease burden than was previously estimated and costs related to the disease are substantial. Especially in combination with its unpredictable nature, chikungunya could significantly impact local health systems. Insights from this study could inform decision makers on the impact of chikungunya on population health and help them to appropriately allocate resources to protect vulnerable populations from this debilitating disease.

Estimated annual costs of Chikungunya fever in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the cost of illness of Chikungunya in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 2019.

METHODS

The study is a partial economic evaluation carried out with secondary data with free and unrestricted access. Direct outpatient and indirect costs of the acute, post-acute, and chronic phases of Chikungunya fever were estimated, in addition to hospital costs. The estimate of direct costs was performed using the notified cases and the standard treatment flowchart in the state of Rio de Janeiro. The indirect ones consist of loss of productivity and disability, using the burden of disease indicator (Disability-adjusted life year - DALY).

RESULTS

The total number of reported cases was 38,830. Total costs were calculated at BRL 279,807,318, with 97% related to indirect costs.

CONCLUSION

The chronic phase and indirect costs were the most expensive. The inability and permanence of Chikungunya differentiate the disease and increase the costs of its treatment.

Exploring Iguape Virus-A Lesser-Known Orthoflavivirus

Brazil has earned the moniker "arbovirus hotspot", providing an ideal breeding ground for a multitude of arboviruses thriving in various zoonotic and urban cycles. As the planet warms and vectors expand their habitat range, a nuanced understanding of lesser-known arboviruses and the factors that could drive their emergence becomes imperative. Among these viruses is the Iguape virus (IGUV), a member of the Orthoflavivirus aroaense species, which was first isolated in 1979 from a sentinel mouse in the municipality of Iguape, within the Vale do Ribeira region of São Paulo State. While evidence suggests that IGUV circulates among birds, wild rodents, marsupials, bats, and domestic birds, there is no information available on its pathogenesis in both humans and animals. The existing literature on IGUV spans decades, is outdated, and is often challenging to access. In this review, we have curated information from the known literature, clarifying its elusive nature and investigating the factors that may influence its emergence. As an orthoflavivirus, IGUV poses a potential threat, which demands our attention and vigilance, considering the serious outbreaks that the Zika virus, another neglected orthoflavivirus, has unleashed in the recent past.

Reduced dengue incidence following city-wide wMel Wolbachia mosquito releases throughout three Colombian cities: Interrupted time series analysis and a prospective case-control study

BACKGROUND

The introduction of Wolbachia (wMel strain) into Aedes aegypti mosquitoes reduces their capacity to transmit dengue and other arboviruses. Randomised and non-randomised studies in multiple countries have shown significant reductions in dengue incidence following field releases of wMel-infected Ae. aegypti. We report the public health outcomes from phased, large-scale releases of wMel-Ae. aegypti mosquitoes throughout three contiguous cities in the Aburrá Valley, Colombia.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Following pilot releases in 2015-2016, staged city-wide wMel-Ae. aegypti deployments were undertaken in the cities of Bello, Medellín and Itagüí (3.3 million people) between October 2016 and April 2022. The impact of the Wolbachia intervention on dengue incidence was evaluated in two parallel studies. A quasi-experimental study using interrupted time series analysis showed notified dengue case incidence was reduced by 95% in Bello and Medellín and 97% in Itagüí, following establishment of wMel at ≥60% prevalence, compared to the pre-intervention period and after adjusting for seasonal trends. A concurrent clinic-based case-control study with a test-negative design was unable to attain the target sample size of 63 enrolled virologically-confirmed dengue (VCD) cases between May 2019 and December 2021, consistent with low dengue incidence throughout the Aburrá Valley following wMel deployments. Nevertheless, VCD incidence was 45% lower (OR 0.55 [95% CI 0.25, 1.17]) and combined VCD/presumptive dengue incidence was 47% lower (OR 0.53 [95% CI 0.30, 0.93]) among participants resident in wMel-treated versus untreated neighbourhoods.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Stable introduction of wMel into local Ae. aegypti populations was associated with a significant and sustained reduction in dengue incidence across three Colombian cities. These results from the largest contiguous Wolbachia releases to-date demonstrate the real-world effectiveness of the method across large urban populations and, alongside previously published results, support the reproducibility of this effectiveness across different ecological settings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT03631719.

Zika virus knowledge, attitudes and prevention behaviors among pregnant women in the ZEN cohort study, Colombia, 2017-2018

BACKGROUND

Zika virus (ZIKV) infection during pregnancy can cause severe birth defects in the fetus and is associated with neurodevelopmental abnormalities in childhood. Our objective was to describe ZIKV knowledge and attitudes among pregnant women in Colombia while ZIKV was circulating and whether they predicted the adoption of behaviors to prevent ZIKV mosquito-borne and sexual transmission.

METHODS

We used self-reported data from Zika en Embarazadas y Niños (ZEN), a cohort study of women in early pregnancy across three regions of Colombia during 2017-2018. We used Poisson regression to estimate associations between knowledge, attitudes and previous experience with mosquito-borne infection and preventative behaviors.

RESULTS

Among 1519 women, knowledge of mosquito-borne transmission was high (1480; 97.8%) and 1275 (85.5%) participants were worried about ZIKV infection during pregnancy. The most common preventive behavior was wearing long pants (1355; 89.4%). Regular mosquito repellent use was uncommon (257; 17.0%). While ZIKV knowledge and attitudes were not associated with the adoption of ZIKV prevention behaviors, previous mosquito-borne infection was associated with increased condom use (prevalence ratio 1.4, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.7).

CONCLUSIONS

Participants were well informed about ZIKV transmission and its health consequences. However, whether this knowledge resulted in behavior change is less certain.

Clinical and epidemiologic evaluation of a 2020 chikungunya outbreak in Cambodia

BACKGROUND

In 2020, the Kingdom of Cambodia experienced a nationwide outbreak of chikungunya virus (CHIKV). Despite an increase in the frequency of outbreaks and expanding geographic range of CHIKV, diagnostic challenges remain, and limited surveillance data of sufficient granularity are available to characterize epidemiological profiles and disease dynamics of the virus.

METHODS

An ongoing and long-standing cross-sectional study of acute undifferentiated febrile illness (AUFI) in Cambodia was leveraged to describe the disease epidemiology and characterize the clinical presentation of patients diagnosed with CHIKV during the 2020 outbreak. Participants presenting with AUFI symptoms at ten study locations provided acute and convalescent blood samples and were tested for CHIKV using a reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and serological diagnostic methods including IgM and IgG. Acute and follow-up clinical data were also collected.

RESULTS

From 1194 participant blood samples tested, 331 (27.7%) positive CHIKV cases were detected. Most CHIKV positive individuals (280, 84.6%) reported having a fever 3 to 4 days prior to visiting a health facility. Symptoms including chills, joint pain, nausea, vomiting, and lesions were all statistically significant among CHIKV positive participants compared to CHIKV negative AUFI participants. Cough was negatively associated with CHIKV positive participants. Positivity proportions were significantly higher among adults compared to children. No significant difference was found in positivity proportion between rainy and dry seasons during the outbreak. Positive CHIKV cases were detected in all study site provinces, with the highest test positivity proportion recorded in the rural northeast province of Kratie.

CONCLUSIONS

Surveillance data captured in this study provided a clinical and epidemiological characterization of positive CHIKV patients presenting at selected health facilities in Cambodia in 2020, and highlighted the widespread distribution of the outbreak, impacting both urban and rural locations. Findings also illustrated the importance of utilizing both RT-PCR and serological testing for effective CHIKV surveillance.

Structural insights into the inhibition of the nsP2 protease from Chikungunya virus by molecular modeling approaches

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is the etiological agent of the Chikungunya fever which has spread worldwide. Clinically, this disease may lead to prolonged incapacitating joint pain that can compromise remarkably the patients' quality of life. However, there are no licensed vaccines or specific drugs to fight this infection yet, making the search for novel therapies an imperative need. In this scenario, the CHIKV nsP2 protease emerged as an attractive therapeutic target once this protein plays a pivotal role in viral replication and pathogenesis. Hence, we investigated the structural basis for the inhibition of this enzyme by using molecular docking and dynamics simulations. Compounds with inhibitory activities against CHIKV nsP2 protease determined experimentally were selected from the literature. Docking studies with a set of stereoisomers showed that trans isomers, but not cis ones, bound close to the catalytic dyad which may explain isomerism requirements to the enzyme's inhibition. Further, binding mode analyses of other known inhibitors revealed highly conserved contacts between inhibitors and enzyme residues like N1011, C1013, A1046, Y1079, N1082, W1084, L1205, and M1242. Molecular dynamics simulations reinforced the importance of some of these interactions and pointed to nonpolar interactions as the main forces for inhibitors' binding. Finally, we observed that true inhibitors exhibited lower structural fluctuation, higher ligand efficiency and did not induce significant changes in protein correlated motions. Collectively, our findings might allow discerning true inhibitors from false ones and can guide drug development efforts targeting the nsP2 protease to fight CHIKV infections in the future.

Spatio-temporal clusters and patterns of spread of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Colombia

Background

Colombia has one of the highest burdens of arboviruses in South America. The country was in a state of hyperendemicity between 2014 and 2016, with co-circulation of several Aedes-borne viruses, including a syndemic of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in 2015.

Methodology/Principal findings

We analyzed the cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika notified in Colombia from January 2014 to December 2018 by municipality and week. The trajectory and velocity of spread was studied using trend surface analysis, and spatio-temporal high-risk clusters for each disease in separate and for the three diseases simultaneously (multivariate) were identified using Kulldorff’s scan statistics. During the study period, there were 366,628, 77,345 and 74,793 cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, respectively, in Colombia. The spread patterns for chikungunya and Zika were similar, although Zika’s spread was accelerated. Both chikungunya and Zika mainly spread from the regions on the Atlantic coast and the south-west to the rest of the country. We identified 21, 16, and 13 spatio-temporal clusters of dengue, chikungunya and Zika, respectively, and, from the multivariate analysis, 20 spatio-temporal clusters, among which 7 were simultaneous for the three diseases. For all disease-specific analyses and the multivariate analysis, the most-likely cluster was identified in the south-western region of Colombia, including the Valle del Cauca department.

Conclusions/Significance

The results further our understanding of emerging Aedes-borne diseases in Colombia by providing useful evidence on their potential site of entry and spread trajectory within the country, and identifying spatio-temporal disease-specific and multivariate high-risk clusters of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, information that can be used to target interventions.

Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika are diseases transmitted to humans by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes. Between 2014 and 2016 chikungunya and Zika viruses started causing outbreaks in Colombia, one of the countries historically most affected by dengue. We used case counts of the diseases by municipality and week to study the spread trajectory of chikungunya and Zika within Colombia’s territory, and to identify space-time high-risk clusters, i.e., the areas and time periods that dengue, chikungunya, and Zika were more present. Chikungunya and Zika spread similarly in Colombia, but Zika spread faster. The Atlantic coast, a famous touristic destination in the country, was likely the place of entry of chikungunya and Zika in Colombia. The south-western region was identified as a high-risk cluster for all three diseases in separate and simultaneously. This region has a favorable climate for the Aedes mosquitoes and other characteristics that facilitate the diseases’ transmission, such as social deprivation and high population mobility. Our results provide useful information on the locations that should be prioritized for interventions to prevent the entry of new diseases transmitted by Aedes and to reduce the burden of dengue, chikungunya and Zika where they are established.

Virological, Serological and Clinical Analysis of Chikungunya Virus Infection in Thai Patients

From 2018 to 2020, the Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreak re-emerged in Thailand with a record of more than 10,000 cases up until the end of 2020. Here, we studied acute CHIKV-infected patients who had presented to the Bangkok Hospital for Tropical Diseases from 2019 to 2020 by assessing the relationship between viral load, clinical features, and serological profile. The results from our study showed that viral load was significantly high in patients with fever, headache, and arthritis. We also determined the neutralizing antibody titer in response to the viral load in patients, and our data support the evidence that an effective neutralizing antibody response against the virus is important for control of the viral load. Moreover, the phylogenetic analysis revealed that the CHIKV strains we studied belonged to the East, Central, and Southern African (ECSA) genotype, of the Indian ocean lineage (IOL), and possessed E1-K211E and E1-I317V mutations. Thus, this study provides insight for a better understanding of CHIKV pathogenesis in acute infection, along with the genomic diversity of the current CHIKV strains circulating in Thailand.

Susceptibility to endemic Aedes-borne viruses among pregnant women in Risaralda, Colombia

OBJECTIVE

Aedes-borne viruses (ABV) affect humans on every inhabited continent and frequently cause epidemics. Recent epidemics of chikungunya and Zika viruses highlight that preparedness for future epidemics requires assessment of susceptibility, particularly among high-risk groups. We sought to determine immunity against the three major circulating ABV among pregnant women in an ABV-endemic area of Colombia.

METHODS

A cross-sectional seroprevalence study was performed, enrolling women presenting to Labor and Delivery. Cord blood and maternal peripheral blood was obtained. IgG seroprevalence to flaviviruses and chikungunya was determined by ELISA. An abbreviated neutralization test was used to estimate the frequency and magnitude of immunity to Zika and four dengue serotypes. Cluster analyses explored epidemiologic factors associated with seroprevalence.

RESULTS

Most women exhibited high levels of neutralizing antibodies to one or more ABV; however, nearly 20% were seronegative for flaviviruses. Our research took place after the epidemic peak of the ZIKV outbreak in Colombia in 2016, but only 20% of pregnant women had high levels of Zika-neutralizing antibodies consistent with likely protective immunity to ZIKV.

CONCLUSIONS

Hence, a high proportion pregnant women in Risaralda remain susceptible to one or more ABV including the teratogenic ZIKV, indicating risk for future epidemics in this region.

Prevention and control of dengue and Chikungunya in Colombia: A cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

Chikungunya and dengue are emerging diseases that have caused large outbreaks in various regions of the world. Both are both spread by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitos. We developed a dynamic transmission model of chikungunya and dengue, calibrated to data from Colombia (June 2014 –December 2017).

Methodology/Principal findings

We evaluated the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of residual insecticide treatment, long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, routine dengue vaccination for children aged 9, catchup vaccination for individuals aged 10–19 or 10–29, and portfolios of these interventions. Model calibration resulted in 300 realistic transmission parameters sets that produced close matches to disease-specific incidence and deaths. Insecticide was the preferred intervention and was cost-effective. Insecticide averted an estimated 95 chikungunya cases and 114 dengue cases per 100,000 people, 61 deaths, and 4,523 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). In sensitivity analysis, strategies that included dengue vaccination were cost-effective only when the vaccine cost was 14% of the current price.

Conclusions/Significance

Insecticide to prevent chikungunya and dengue in Colombia could generate significant health benefits and be cost-effective. Because of limits on diagnostic accuracy and vaccine efficacy, the cost of dengue testing and vaccination must decrease dramatically for such vaccination to be cost-effective in Colombia. The vectors for chikungunya and dengue have recently spread to new regions, highlighting the importance of understanding the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of policies aimed at preventing these diseases.

Chikungunya and dengue are emerging diseases that have caused large outbreaks in various regions of the world. Both are both spread by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitos. To evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions aimed at controlling either of these diseases, it is important to consider the potential effects on both diseases, as an intervention that reduces the mosquito population will reduce the spread of both diseases. We developed a dynamic transmission model of chikungunya and dengue, calibrated to data from Colombia. We evaluated the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of the following interventions: residual insecticide treatment, long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, routine dengue vaccination for children aged 9, catchup dengue vaccination for individuals aged 10–19 or 10–29, and portfolios of these interventions. In all vaccination scenarios, we considered testing for previous exposure to dengue. We found that insecticide to prevent chikungunya and dengue in Colombia could generate significant health benefits and be cost-effective. While the dengue vaccine was effective in preventing cases and deaths, costs of diagnostic testing and vaccination must decrease for dengue vaccination to be considered cost-effective.

Epidemiological burden of Chikungunya fever in Brazil, 2016 and 2017

OBJECTIVES

To describe Chikungunya fever (CHIKF) cases and estimate the burden of the disease in Brazil between 2016 and 2017.

METHODS

The first stage of this study consisted of a descriptive epidemiological study with estimations of incidence, mortality and case-fatality rates for each Brazilian state. The second stage provided estimates of the disease burden using DALY, an indicator that aggregates measures of morbidity (years lived with disability - YLD) and mortality (years of life lost - YLL) into a single value.

RESULTS

In Brazil, the incidence rate in 2016 was 114.70 per 100,000 inhabitants, while the mortality rate was 0.15 per 100,000, for a case-fatality rate of 0.13%. In 2017, these figures were 87.59 and 0.12 per 100,000 inhabitants and 0.14%, respectively. The estimated CHIKF burden for Brazil in 2016 was 77,422.61 DALY or 0.3757 per 1000 inhabitants. In 2016, the YLL share of DALY was 10.04%, with YLD accounting for the remaining 89.96%. In 2017, the estimated burden was 59,307.59 DALY or 0.2856 per 1000 inhabitants, with YLL accounting for 9.65% of the total and YLD for 90.35%.

CONCLUSION

CHIKF causes a significant disease burden in Brazil. The chronic phase of CHIKF is responsible for the largest portion of DALY. Deaths from CHIKF are a significant component of the disease burden, with YLL accounting for approximately 10% of the total DALY value.

MARCO+ lymphatic endothelial cells sequester arthritogenic alphaviruses to limit viremia and viral dissemination

Viremia in the vertebrate host is a major determinant of arboviral reservoir competency, transmission efficiency, and disease severity. However, immune mechanisms that control arboviral viremia are poorly defined. Here, we identify critical roles for the scavenger receptor MARCO in controlling viremia during arthritogenic alphavirus infections in mice. Following subcutaneous inoculation, arthritogenic alphavirus particles drain via the lymph and are rapidly captured by MARCO+ lymphatic endothelial cells (LECs) in the draining lymph node (dLN), limiting viral spread to the bloodstream. Upon reaching the bloodstream, alphavirus particles are cleared from the circulation by MARCO-expressing Kupffer cells in the liver, limiting viremia and further viral dissemination. MARCO-mediated accumulation of alphavirus particles in the draining lymph node and liver is an important host defense mechanism as viremia and viral tissue burdens are elevated in MARCO-/- mice and disease is more severe. In contrast to prior studies implicating a key role for lymph node macrophages in limiting viral dissemination, these findings exemplify a previously unrecognized arbovirus-scavenging role for lymphatic endothelial cells and improve our mechanistic understanding of viremia control during arthritogenic alphavirus infection.

Global economic costs of aquatic invasive alien species

Much research effort has been invested in understanding ecological impacts of invasive alien species (IAS) across ecosystems and taxonomic groups, but empirical studies about economic effects lack synthesis. Using a comprehensive global database, we determine patterns and trends in economic costs of aquatic IAS by examining: (i) the distribution of these costs across taxa, geographic regions and cost types; (ii) the temporal dynamics of global costs; and (iii) knowledge gaps, especially compared to terrestrial IAS. Based on the costs recorded from the existing literature, the global cost of aquatic IAS conservatively summed to US$345 billion, with the majority attributed to invertebrates (62%), followed by vertebrates (28%), then plants (6%). The largest costs were reported in North America (48%) and Asia (13%), and were principally a result of resource damages (74%); only 6% of recorded costs were from management. The magnitude and number of reported costs were highest in the United States of America and for semi-aquatic taxa. Many countries and known aquatic alien species had no reported costs, especially in Africa and Asia. Accordingly, a network analysis revealed limited connectivity among countries, indicating disparate cost reporting. Aquatic IAS costs have increased in recent decades by several orders of magnitude, reaching at least US$23 billion in 2020. Costs are likely considerably underrepresented compared to terrestrial IAS; only 5% of reported costs were from aquatic species, despite 26% of known invaders being aquatic. Additionally, only 1% of aquatic invasion costs were from marine species. Costs of aquatic IAS are thus substantial, but likely underreported. Costs have increased over time and are expected to continue rising with future invasions. We urge increased and improved cost reporting by managers, practitioners and researchers to reduce knowledge gaps. Few costs are proactive investments; increased management spending is urgently needed to prevent and limit current and future aquatic IAS damages.

De-Coding the Contributions of the Viral RNAs to Alphaviral Pathogenesis

Alphaviruses are positive-sense RNA arboviruses that are capable of causing severe disease in otherwise healthy individuals. There are many aspects of viral infection that determine pathogenesis and major efforts regarding the identification and characterization of virulence determinants have largely focused on the roles of the nonstructural and structural proteins. Nonetheless, the viral RNAs of the alphaviruses themselves play important roles in regard to virulence and pathogenesis. In particular, many sequences and secondary structures within the viral RNAs play an important part in the development of disease and may be considered important determinants of virulence. In this review article, we summarize the known RNA-based virulence traits and host:RNA interactions that influence alphaviral pathogenesis for each of the viral RNA species produced during infection. Overall, the viral RNAs produced during infection are important contributors to alphaviral pathogenesis and more research is needed to fully understand how each RNA species impacts the host response to infection as well as the development of disease.

Knowledge, attitudes, and practices towards COVID-19 among Venezuelans during the 2020 epidemic: An online cross-sectional survey

Background

COVID-19 threatens health systems worldwide, but Venezuela’s system is particularly vulnerable. To prevent the spread of COVID-19, individuals must adopt preventive behaviors. However, to encourage behavior change, we must first understand current knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAPs) that inform response to this health threat.

Methods

We explored KAPs among Venezuelans using a cross-sectional, internet-based questionnaire. The questionnaire explored individuals’ knowledge about COVID-19; their attitudes toward the world’s and the Venezuelan authorities’ abilities to control it; and their self-reported practices. We also collected demographic data. Binomial logistic regression analyses were used to predict the adoption of preventive behaviors based on demographic variables, individual knowledge level, and individual attitudes.

Results

3122 individuals completed the questionnaire. Participants had a high level of knowledge about COVID-19. They expressed high levels of optimism that the world would eventually control COVID-19, but they were very pessimistic about the public authorities in Venezuela. Most participants adopted preventive practices. Binomial regression suggests younger people, less educated people, and manual laborers hold lower levels of knowledge, and these groups, as well as men, were less likely to adopt preventive practices. Knowledge, by itself, had no association with optimism and little association with self-reported practices.

Conclusions

As other KAP studies in Latin America found, knowledge is not sufficient to prompt behavior change. Venezuelans’ pessimism about their own country’s ability should be explored in greater depth. Health promotion in Venezuela may wish to target the most at risk groups: men, younger people, less educated people, and manual laborers.

Risk of chronic arthralgia and impact of pain on daily activities in a cohort of patients with chikungunya virus infection from Brazil

OBJECTIVES

To investigate risk factors for persistent arthralgia in patients with chikungunya, and describe its impact on daily activities.

METHODS

From September 2014 to July 2016, a surveillance study enrolled patients with acute febrile illness in Salvador, Brazil, and detected those with chikungunya virus infection using IgM enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay or reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Telephone follow-ups were performed to ascertain the progression of disease.

RESULTS

Of 153 followed cases, 65 (42.5%) reported chronic arthralgia that lasted >3 months, and 47 (30.7%) were still symptomatic at the time of the interview (approximately 1.5 years after symptom onset). Limitations in daily activities and mental distress were reported by 93.8% and 61.5% of those with chronic arthralgia, respectively. Female sex [risk ratio (RR) 1.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.95-2.69] and age (RR 1.02 for each 1-year increase, 95% CI 1.01-1.03) were independent risk factors for chronic arthralgia. Chronic arthralgia was not associated with co-infection with dengue virus (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.48-1.94) or chikungunya viral load at diagnosis (median chikungunya virus RNA of 5.60 and 5.52 log₁₀ copies/μL for those with and without chronic arthralgia, respectively; P = 0.75).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings reinforce the high frequency of chronic chikungunya arthralgia, and highlight the substantial disability associated with the persistence of pain. Development of novel strategies to mitigate the transmission of chikungunya virus and to provide long-term medical assistance for patients with chikungunya are needed urgently.

Assessing the reporting of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika to the National Surveillance System in Colombia from 2014-2017: A Capture-recapture analysis accounting for misclassification of arboviral diagnostics

BACKGROUND

Chikungunya, dengue, and Zika are three different arboviruses which have similar symptoms and are a major public health issue in Colombia. Despite the mandatory reporting of these arboviruses to the National Surveillance System in Colombia (SIVIGILA), it has been reported that the system captures less than 10% of diagnosed cases in some cities.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

To assess the scope and degree of arboviruses reporting in Colombia between 2014-2017, we conducted an observational study of surveillance data using the capture-recapture approach in three Colombian cities. Using healthcare facility registries (capture data) and surveillance-notified cases (recapture data), we estimated the degree of reporting by clinical diagnosis. We fit robust Poisson regressions to identify predictors of reporting and estimated the predicted probability of reporting by disease and year. To account for the potential misclassification of the clinical diagnosis, we used the simulation extrapolation for misclassification (MC-SIMEX) method. A total of 266,549 registries were examined. Overall arboviruses' reporting ranged from 5.3% to 14.7% and varied in magnitude according to age and year of diagnosis. Dengue was the most notified disease (21-70%) followed by Zika (6-45%). The highest reporting rate was seen in 2016, an epidemic year. The MC-SIMEX corrected rates indicated underestimation of the reporting due to the potential misclassification bias.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings reflect challenges on arboviruses' reporting, and therefore, potential challenges on the estimation of arboviral burden in Colombia and other endemic settings with similar surveillance systems.

Housing Conditions Linked to Tick (Ixodida: Ixodidae) Infestation in Rural Areas of Colombia: A Potential Risk for Rickettsial Transmission

This cross-sectional study explores the different conditions related to the infestation of ticks in households and the potential risks for rickettsial transmission in Urabá, Colombia. The main outcome of interest was villagers' perception of tick infestation. The data were analyzed using a clog-log mixed regression model. Ticks were collected from infested humans to diagnose infection by spotted fever group rickettsiae (SFGR). In addition, a thematic analysis of qualitative data from key informants concerning knowledge about ticks was conducted. The prevalence of infestation of ticks in households was estimated at 60.99% (95% CI: 51.58-93.51). The multivariate model suggested that households with palm leaf roofs (PR = 1.95; 95% CI: 1.19-2.95), canines (PR = 1.76; 95% CI: 1.21-2.46), rats (PR = 2.19; 95% CI: 1.45-3.08), and with the presence of opossums in areas surrounding the households (PR = 1.51; 95% CI: 1.05-2.10) had a higher prevalence of tick infestation. Two samples of the tick species Amblyomma patinoi were found infected with Rickettsia amblyommatis and Candidatus Rickettsia colombianensi. A thematic analysis provided the names that local community members give to ticks, areas where ticks are common, and the individuals at risk of infestation. The presence of domestic, synanthropic, and wild animals suggests a high risk of the dissemination of ticks inside dwellings and close to them in these rural areas.

Physiotherapeutic evaluation and intervention proposal on a patient with post-chikungunya chronic arthritis

BACKGROUND

Chikungunya fever is an arboviral disease characterized by a high morbidity rate related to intense and persistent arthralgia, causing a decrease in both quality of life (QoL) and productivity. This study aimed to report functional evaluation and multimodal physiotherapeutic intervention on a patient with post-chikungunya chronic arthritis (PCCA).

CASE PRESENTATION

Woman, 47 years old, resident of the municipality of Belém, state of Pará, northern Brazil, with clinical diagnosis of chikungunya fever marked by fever, swelling, pain in the joints of the hands and feet, and headache. The physiotherapeutic treatment started three months after the diagnosis and consisted of 24 sessions composed of electrotherapy, thermotherapy, and kinesiotherapy resources. The patient progressed from an initial status of intense pain in several joints to low pain in a single joint and showed improvement in all domains of QoL, mainly in limitations by physical and emotional aspects and functional capacity.

CONCLUSIONS

This case report details a proposal of multimodal physiotherapeutic intervention for a patient with functional impairments due to PCCA, suggesting that the use of physiotherapeutic resources may help this process and bring some assistance to those affected by the disease.

Machine learning and dengue forecasting: Comparing random forests and artificial neural networks for predicting dengue burden at national and sub-national scales in Colombia

The robust estimate and forecast capability of random forests (RF) has been widely recognized, however this ensemble machine learning method has not been widely used in mosquito-borne disease forecasting. In this study, two sets of RF models were developed at the national (pooled department-level data) and department level in Colombia to predict weekly dengue cases for 12-weeks ahead. A pooled national model based on artificial neural networks (ANN) was also developed and used as a comparator to the RF models. The various predictors included historic dengue cases, satellite-derived estimates for vegetation, precipitation, and air temperature, as well as population counts, income inequality, and education. Our RF model trained on the pooled national data was more accurate for department-specific weekly dengue cases estimation compared to a local model trained only on the department's data. Additionally, the forecast errors of the national RF model were smaller to those of the national pooled ANN model and were increased with the forecast horizon increasing from one-week-ahead (mean absolute error, MAE: 9.32) to 12-weeks ahead (MAE: 24.56). There was considerable variation in the relative importance of predictors dependent on forecast horizon. The environmental and meteorological predictors were relatively important for short-term dengue forecast horizons while socio-demographic predictors were relevant for longer-term forecast horizons. This study demonstrates the potential of RF in dengue forecasting with a feasible approach of using a national pooled model to forecast at finer spatial scales. Furthermore, including sociodemographic predictors is likely to be helpful in capturing longer-term dengue trends.

Guillain-Barré syndrome associated with Zika virus infection in Brazil: a cost-of-illness study

BACKGROUND

Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is a serious, acute paralytic neuropathy of autoimmune aetiology, usually associated with a previous infection. The current study aims to estimate the costs of GBS associated with Zika virus (ZIKV) infection in Brazil.

METHODS

A cost-of-illness study was conducted from the perspective of the Brazilian public health system (Sistema Único de Saúde [SUS]) and Brazilian society for the year 2016. Direct and indirect costs were estimated by a mixed macrocosting and microcosting approach.

RESULTS

The total cost of ZIKV-associated GBS in Brazil was US$11 997 225.85, consisting of the costs of symptomatic ZIKV infection before onset of GBS (direct costs US$2011.51, indirect costs US$19 780.53) and the costs that followed development of GBS (direct costs US$4 722 980.89, indirect costs US$7 252 452.92). The cost of treatment with human immunoglobulin (US$3 263 210.50) and the cost of productivity losses associated with potential years of working life lost due to early mortality (US$4 398 551.72) were particularly noteworthy.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that ZIKV-associated GBS is costly to Brazil, especially due to productivity losses and hospitalization. This highlights the importance of investing in the prevention of ZIKV infection and in the care of patients with GBS.

A clinical scoring system to predict long-term arthralgia in Chikungunya disease: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) has caused worldwide epidemics that impose a major burden on health systems. Approximately half of infected individuals develop chronic debilitating arthralgia, affecting their quality of life. Here, we identified the relevant clinical and demographic variables in the acute phase of CHIKV infection prospectively linked to chronic arthralgia to elaborate a prognostic scoring system.

METHODS

Acute CHIKV infection cases (n = 134) confirmed by serology or molecular test were examined <10 days of disease onset and followed for one year to evaluate for disease progression. Potential risk factors for chronic arthralgia were evaluated by multivariate analysis to develop a prognostic scoring system, which was subsequently tested in an independent validation cohort consisting of 42 individuals.

RESULTS

A total of 107 out of 134 (80%) acute CHIKV-confirmed cases from the derivation cohort were re-examined one year after enrollment. Chronic arthralgia post-CHIKV infection was diagnosed in 64 (60%). Five of the 12 parameters evaluated in the acute phase were statistically associated with persistent arthralgia and were further tested by Bayesian analysis. These variables were weighted to yield a prognosis score denominated SHERA (Sex, Hypertension, Edema, Retroocular pain, Age), which exhibited 81.3% accuracy in predicting long-term arthralgia post-CHIKV infection in the derivation cohort, and 76.5% accuracy in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The simplified and externally validated prognostic scoring system, SHERA, is a useful method to screen acutely CHIKV-infected patients at elevated risk of chronic arthralgia who will benefit from specific interventions. This tool could guide public health policies, particularly in resource-constrained settings.

Estimating the burden of arboviral diseases in Colombia between 2013 and 2016

OBJECTIVE

During the 2013-2016 period, Dengue, Chikungunya, and Zika affected more than 1 million people in Colombia. These arboviruses and their chronic manifestations pose a public health challenge. Therefore, we estimated the burden of disease by Dengue, Chikungunya, and Zika in Colombia between 2013 and 2016.

METHODS

An exploratory ecological study was carried out using the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as a unit of measure. The mortality databases of the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) and the morbidity databases of the National Public Health Surveillance System (SIVIGILA) were used. Deaths and cases for each arbovirus were grouped and then adjusted to control biases. Subsequently, we performed a sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

In the 2013-2016 period, 491,629.2 DALYs were lost due to arboviruses in Colombia. By disease, 26.6% of the total DALYs were caused by Dengue, 71.3% by Chikungunya, and the remaining 2.2%, by Zika. The majority of DALYs (68.2%) were caused by chronic complications. Five out of 32 departments (Valle del Cauca, Tolima, Norte de Santander, Huila, and Bolívar) contributed 50.5% of total DALYs.

CONCLUSION

The burden of disease by arboviruses in the 2013-2016 period exceeded the burden of other infectious diseases such as HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis in Colombia. Public health efforts must be made to mitigate new epidemics of these arboviruses.

Prevalence of and risk factors for long-term disabilities following chikungunya virus disease: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The main aim of this study was to investigate the percentage of individuals who developed long-term disabilities after chikungunya virus (CHIKV) disease on the basis of follow up time interval and its associated risk factors.

METHOD

In this meta-analysis, electronic databases PubMed, Science Direct and Google Scholar were searched to identify cohort studies of CHIKV disease from January 2000 to June 2018. Total 28 eligible studies were selected for analysis. The pooled prevalence rate (PR), risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for both effect measures were calculated using a random effects model.

RESULT

Among 28 studies, 24 studies were used for PR calculation and the PR for the long-term disabilities of CHIKV disease patients were found 39.70%, [95% CI: (31.77-47.64), p < 0.01] for follow up time between 6 and 12 months, 35.85%, [95% CI: (24.09-47.61), p < 0.01] for follow up time between 12 and 18 months and 28.20%, [95% CI: (19.74-36.66), p < 0.01] for greater than 18 months respectively. Eighteen studies were used for RR calculation and significant association were found between long-term disabilities after CHIKV disease and gender [RR: 1.46, p < 0.01], age [RR: 1.61, p < 0.01], diabetes [RR: 1.40, p < 0.01], hypertension [RR: 1.37, p < 0.01], severity of pain at acute stage [RR: 2.02, p < 0.01].

CONCLUSION

Approximately 40% patients developed long-term disabilities after 6 months of CHIKV disease and 28% patients still suffer from this disease after 18 months of acute infection.

A review of the economic evidence of Aedes-borne arboviruses and Aedes-borne arboviral disease prevention and control strategies

Introduction: Aedes-borne arboviruses contributes substantially to the disease and cost burden.Areas covered: We performed a systematic review of the economic evidence surrounding aedes-borne arboviruses and strategies to prevent and control these diseases to inform disease control policy decisions and research directions. We searched four databases covering an 18-year period (2000-2018) to identify arboviral disease-related cost of illness studies, cost studies of vector control and prevention strategies, cost-effectiveness analyses and cost-benefit analyses. We identified 74 published studies that revealed substantial global total costs in yellow fever virus and dengue virus ranging from 2.1 to 57.3 billion USD. Cost studies of vector control and surveillance programs are limited, but a few studies found that costs of vector control programs ranged from 5.62 to 73.5 million USD. Cost-effectiveness evidence was limited across Aedes-borne diseases, but generally found targeted dengue vaccination programs cost-effective. This review revealed insufficient economic evidence for vaccine introduction and implementation of surveillance and vector control programs.Expert opinion: Evidence of the economic burden of aedes-borne arboviruses and the economic impact of strategies for arboviral disease prevention and control is critical to inform policy decisions and to secure continued financial support for these preventive and control measures.

Economic costs of Chagas disease in Colombia in 2017: A social perspective

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the costs of Chagas disease in Colombia from a societal perspective in 2017.

METHODS

A cost-of-illness analysis was carried out using a prevalence-based approach. Costs attributable to Chagas were estimated from a bottom-up strategy, using population attributable fractions. Indirect costs were calculated using the human capital approach.

RESULTS

The estimated total cost of diagnosed Chagas disease was US $13.1 million and included $5.7 million in direct medical costs, $1.5 million in direct nonmedical costs, and $5.8 million in indirect costs: absenteeism ($2.2 million), presenteeism ($3.1 million), and premature deaths ($515228). On average, people diagnosed with Chagas disease incurred $594 in medical expenses, and more than half of that expense was directly attributable to Chagas. The annual cost to society for a person with chronic Chagas disease was $4226.

CONCLUSIONS

Chagas disease imposes a substantial financial burden on healthcare system and society. Economic cost of illness-related productivity losses is much more significant. Our research suggests that a health policy framework addressing as many of the social determinants of health as possible may be pivotal in containing social costs. Therefore, reducing this burden is not only the responsibility of the health system.

Chikungunya virus populations experience diversity- dependent attenuation and purifying intra-vector selection in Californian Aedes aegypti mosquitoes

Chikungunya virus (Togaviridae, Alphavirus; CHIKV) is a mosquito-borne global health threat that has been transmitted transiently in the southeastern United States. A primary CHIKV mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti, was recently established in the populous state of California, but the vector competence of Californian mosquitoes is unknown. Explosive CHIKV epidemics since 2004 have been associated with the acquisition of mosquito-adaptive mutations that enhance transmission by Ae. aegypti or Ae. albopictus. As a highly mutable RNA virus, CHIKV has the potential for extensive and rapid genetic diversification in vertebrate hosts and mosquito vectors. We previously demonstrated that expansion of CHIKV diversity in cell culture allows for greater adaptability to novel selection pressures, and that CHIKV fidelity variants are able to diversify more than wildtype (WT) CHIKV in mice. The evolution of intra-vector CHIKV populations and the correlation between CHIKV population diversity and infectivity and transmissibility in mosquitoes has not yet been studied. Here, we address these gaps in knowledge via experimental infection of Ae. aegypti from California with WT and fidelity variant CHIKV. We show that Ae. aegypti from California are highly competent vectors for CHIKV. We also report that CHIKV fidelity variants diversify more than WT in mosquitoes and exhibit attenuated infectivity at the level of the midgut. Furthermore, we demonstrate that intra-vector populations of CHIKV are subjected to purifying selection in mosquito bodies, and sequences of non-coding CHIKV regions are highly conserved. These findings will inform public health risk assessment for CHIKV in California and improve our understanding of constraints to CHIKV evolution in mosquitoes.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and has caused explosive epidemics in Asia and the Americas since 2004. During mosquito infection, the CHIKV genome replicates with a high mutation rate to produce virus populations with high genetic diversity that facilitate virus evolution. With this study, we address three gaps in knowledge: 1) are Ae. aegypti mosquitoes from Los Angeles, California, capable of transmitting CHIKV, 2) what effect does increased CHIKV population diversity have on virus infection and transmission by mosquitoes, and 3) are there constraints to CHIKV evolution in mosquitoes? We use oral infection of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes originating from Los Angeles, California to demonstrate high laboratory transmission competence of CHIKV. We also show that oral infection of mosquitoes with CHIKV variants that produce more diverse populations are less able to infect mosquitoes than wildtype CHIKV populations. Lastly, our study provides evidence of genome-wide and regional constraints to CHIKV evolution within Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. Our results will inform public health risk assessments for potential CHIKV introduction in southern California and advance our understanding of the role of mosquitoes in CHIKV evolution.

Quantifying Positive Health Externalities of Disease Control Interventions: Modeling Chikungunya and Dengue

Purpose. Health interventions can generate positive externalities not captured in traditional, single-disease cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs), potentially biasing results. We illustrate this with the example of mosquito-borne diseases. When a particular mosquito species can transmit multiple diseases, a single-disease CEA comparing disease-specific interventions (e.g., vaccination) with interventions targeting the mosquito population (e.g., insecticide) would underestimate the insecticide's full benefits (i.e., preventing other diseases). Methods. We developed three dynamic transmission models: chikungunya, dengue, and combined chikungunya and dengue, each calibrated to disease-specific incidence and deaths in Colombia (June 2014 to December 2017). We compared the models' predictions of the incremental benefits and cost-effectiveness of an insecticide (10% efficacy), hypothetical chikungunya and dengue vaccines (40% coverage, 95% efficacy), and combinations of these interventions. Results. Model calibration yielded realistic parameters that produced close matches to disease-specific incidence and deaths. The chikungunya model predicted that vaccine would decrease the incidence of chikungunya and avert more total deaths than insecticide. The dengue model predicted that insecticide and the dengue vaccine would reduce dengue incidence and deaths, with no effect for the chikungunya vaccine. In the combined model, insecticide was more effective than either vaccine in reducing the incidence of and deaths from both diseases. In all models, the combined strategy was at least as effective as the most effective single strategy. In an illustrative CEA, the most frequently preferred strategy was vaccine in the chikungunya model, the status quo in the dengue model, and insecticide in the combined model. Limitations. There is uncertainty in the target calibration data. Conclusions. Failure to capture positive externalities can bias CEA results, especially when evaluating interventions that affect multiple diseases. Multidisease modeling is a reasonable alternative for addressing such biases.

Space-time dynamics of a triple epidemic: dengue, chikungunya and Zika clusters in the city of Rio de Janeiro

Dengue, an arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, has been endemic in Brazil for decades. However, vector-control strategies have not led to a significant reduction in the disease burden and have not been sufficient to prevent chikungunya and Zika entry and establishment in the country. In Rio de Janeiro city, the first Zika and chikungunya epidemics were detected between 2015 and 2016, coinciding with a dengue epidemic. Understanding the behaviour of these diseases in a triple epidemic scenario is a necessary step for devising better interventions for prevention and outbreak response. We applied scan statistics analysis to detect spatio-temporal clustering for each disease separately and for all three simultaneously. In general, clusters were not detected in the same locations and time periods, possibly owing to competition between viruses for host resources, depletion of susceptible population, different introduction times and change in behaviour of the human population (e.g. intensified vector-control activities in response to increasing cases of a particular arbovirus). Simultaneous clusters of the three diseases usually included neighbourhoods with high population density and low socioeconomic status, particularly in the North region of the city. The use of space–time cluster detection can guide intensive interventions to high-risk locations in a timely manner, to improve clinical diagnosis and management, and pinpoint vector-control measures.

Discrete viral E2 lysine residues and scavenger receptor MARCO are required for clearance of circulating alphaviruses

The magnitude and duration of vertebrate viremia is a critical determinant of arbovirus transmission, geographic spread, and disease severity. We find that multiple alphaviruses, including chikungunya (CHIKV), Ross River (RRV), and o'nyong 'nyong (ONNV) viruses, are cleared from the circulation of mice by liver Kupffer cells, impeding viral dissemination. Clearance from the circulation was independent of natural antibodies or complement factor C3, and instead relied on scavenger receptor SR-A6 (MARCO). Remarkably, lysine to arginine substitutions at distinct residues within the E2 glycoproteins of CHIKV and ONNV (E2 K200R) as well as RRV (E2 K251R) allowed for escape from clearance and enhanced viremia and dissemination. Mutational analysis revealed that viral clearance from the circulation is strictly dependent on the presence of lysine at these positions. These findings reveal a previously unrecognized innate immune pathway that controls alphavirus viremia and dissemination in vertebrate hosts, ultimately influencing disease severity and likely transmission efficiency.

Geographical trends of chikungunya and Zika in the Colombian Amazonian gateway department, Caqueta, 2015-2018 - Implications for public health and travel medicine

BACKGROUND

Chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) significantly affected Latin America in the period 2015-2017. Most studies were reported from urban areas of Brazil and Colombia. In this paper we estimate Incidence rates for CHIKV and ZIKV in Caqueta, the Amazonian gateway area of Colombia, from 2015 to 2018.

METHODS

Using surveillance data of CHIKV and ZIKV in Caqueta, Colombia, incidence rates were estimated (cases/100,000 population). Sixteen geographical information systems (GIS)-based municipal maps were developed. GIS software used was Kosmo 3.0®.

RESULTS

From 1st of January 2015 to the 24th of November 2018, 825 cases of CHIK and 1079 of ZIKV were reported, yielding cumulated incidence rates of 169.42 and 221.59 cases/100,000 population respectively. In 2016, 48.7% of the CHIKV cases (402) and 96.6% of the ZIKV cases (1042) were reported. The highest number of both arboviral diseases occurred at Florencia (capital department city), 225 cases for CHIKV (127.17 cases/100,000 pop.) and 611 for ZIKV (345.34 cases/100,000 pop.).

DISCUSSION

The temporo-spatial distribution of CHIKV and ZIKV infections in Caquetá reflected the pattern of concurrent epidemics, especially in 2016. Studies using GIS-linked maps are necessary to attain accurate epidemiological analyses for public health decisions. That is also useful for an epidemiologically based assessment of traveler risks when visiting specific areas in destination countries.

Estimating the cost of illness and burden of disease associated with the 2014-2015 chikungunya outbreak in the U.S. Virgin Islands

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), an alphavirus that causes fever and severe polyarthralgia, swept through the Americas in 2014 with almost 2 million suspected or confirmed cases reported by April 2016. In this study, we estimate the direct medical costs, cost of lost wages due to absenteeism, and years lived with disability (YLD) associated with the 2014–2015 CHIKV outbreak in the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI). For this analysis, we used surveillance data from the USVI Department of Health, medical cost data from three public hospitals in USVI, and data from two studies of laboratory-positive cases up to 12 months post illness. On average, employed case-patients missed 9 days of work in the 12 months following their disease onset, which resulted in an estimated cost of $15.5 million. Estimated direct healthcare costs were $2.9 million for the first 2 months and $0.6 million for 3–12 months following the outbreak. The total estimated cost associated with the outbreak ranged from $14.8 to $33.4 million (approximately 1% of gross domestic product), depending on the proportion of the population infected with symptomatic disease, degree of underreporting, and proportion of cases who were employed. The estimated YLDs associated with long-term sequelae from the CHIKV outbreak in the USVI ranged from 599–1,322. These findings highlight the significant economic burden of the recent CHIKV outbreak in the USVI and will aid policy-makers in making informed decisions about prevention and control measures for inevitable, future CHIKV outbreaks.

Chikungunya, a virus carried and transmitted by mosquitoes, causes fever, headache, and severe joint pain in humans that often resolves within 7–10 days. However, a proportion of cases, up to 79% in some outbreaks, report persistent joint pain and chronic inflammatory rheumatism, resulting in decreased quality of life for months to years following initial infection. In 2014, chikungunya virus swept through the Americas, resulting in almost 2 million suspected or confirmed cases reported by April 2016. Previous studies have noted the large resource burden from chikungunya outbreaks, including high healthcare costs, lost wages due to absenteeism, and decreased quality of life for months following infection. Our work aimed to estimate the direct medical costs, cost of lost productivity due to absenteeism, and years lived with disability associated with the chikungunya outbreak in the U.S. Virgin Islands. This information may aid policy-makers in making informed decisions about prevention and control measures for inevitable, future chikungunya outbreaks.

Chikungunya virus in Asia - Pacific: a systematic review

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen that causes an acute febrile syndrome and severe, debilitating rheumatic disorders in humans that may persist for months. CHIKV’s presence in Asia dates from at least 1954, but its epidemiological profile in the region remains poorly understood. We systematically reviewed CHIKV emergence, epidemiology, clinical features, atypical manifestations and distribution of virus genotypes, in 47 countries from South East Asia (SEA) and the Western Pacific Region (WPR) during the period 1954–2017. Following the Cochrane Collaboration guidelines, Pubmed and Scopus databases, surveillance reports available in the World Health Organisation (WHO) and government websites were systematically reviewed. Of the 3504 records identified, 461 were retained for data extraction. Although CHIKV has been circulating in Asia almost continuously since the 1950s, it has significantly expanded its geographic reach in the region from 2005 onwards. Most reports identified in the review originated from India. Although all ages and both sexes can be affected, younger children and the elderly are more prone to severe and occasionally fatal forms of the disease, with child fatalities recorded since 1963 from India. The most frequent clinical features identified were arthralgia, rash, fever and headache. Both the Asian and East-Central-South African (ECSA) genotypes circulate in SEA and WPR, with ECSA genotype now predominant. Our findings indicate a substantial but poorly documented burden of CHIKV infection in the Asia-Pacific region. An evidence-based consensus on typical clinical features of chikungunya could aid in enhanced diagnosis and improved surveillance of the disease.

Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity in the Distribution of Chikungunya and Zika Virus Case Incidences during their 2014 to 2016 Epidemics in Barranquilla, Colombia

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) have recently emerged as globally important infections. This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the occurrence of CHIKV and ZIKV outbreaks throughout the major international seaport city of Barranquilla, Colombia in 2014 and 2016 and the potential for clustering. Incidence data were fitted using multiple Bayesian Poisson models based on multiple explanatory variables as potential risk factors identified from other studies and options for random effects. A best fit model was used to analyse their case incidence risks and identify any risk factors during their epidemics. Neighbourhoods in the northern region were hotspots for both CHIKV and ZIKV outbreaks. Additional hotspots occurred in the southwestern and some eastern/southeastern areas during their outbreaks containing part of, or immediately adjacent to, the major circular city road with its import/export cargo warehouses and harbour area. Multivariate conditional autoregressive models strongly identified higher socioeconomic strata and living in a neighbourhood near a major road as risk factors for ZIKV case incidences. These findings will help to appropriately focus vector control efforts but also challenge the belief that these infections are driven by social vulnerability and merit further study both in Barranquilla and throughout the world's tropical and subtropical regions.

Arthritogenic Alphavirus-Induced Immunopathology and Targeting Host Inflammation as A Therapeutic Strategy for Alphaviral Disease

Arthritogenic alphaviruses are a group of medically important arboviruses that cause inflammatory musculoskeletal disease in humans with debilitating symptoms, such as arthralgia, arthritis, and myalgia. The arthritogenic, or Old World, alphaviruses are capable of causing explosive outbreaks, with some viruses of major global concern. At present, there are no specific therapeutics or commercially available vaccines available to prevent alphaviral disease. Infected patients are typically treated with analgesics and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs to provide often inadequate symptomatic relief. Studies to determine the mechanisms of arthritogenic alphaviral disease have highlighted the role of the host immune system in disease pathogenesis. This review discusses the current knowledge of the innate immune response to acute alphavirus infection and alphavirus-induced immunopathology. Therapeutic strategies to treat arthritogenic alphavirus disease by targeting the host immune response are also examined.

Chikungunya virus inhibition by synthetic coumarin-guanosine conjugates

Since its discovery in Tanganyika, Africa in 1952, chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreaks have occurred in Africa, Asia, Europe, and America. Till now chikungunya fever has spread in nearly 40 countries. Because of lack of effective vaccines and antiviral drugs to intervene this disease, 21 new conjugated compounds were designed and synthesized by coupling of 6,8-dithioguanosine at its C-6 position with 3-(chloromethyl)coumarins bearing an F, Cl, Br, Me, or -OMe substituent through the -SCH₂- joint. Meanwhile, an organic "dummy" ligand (e.g., methyl, benzyl, and naphthylmethyl) or a coumarinyl moiety was attached at the C-8 position. By high through-put screening, three of these new conjugates were found to inhibit CHIKV in Vero cells with significant potency (EC₅₀ = 9.9-13.9 μM) and showed low toxicity (CC₅₀ = 96.5-212 μM). The selectivity index values were 9.37-21.7. Their structure-activity relationship was deduced, which indicates that the coumarin moiety is essential and the presence of a -OMe group enhances the antiviral activity.

Epidemiology of zoonotic tick-borne diseases in Latin America: Are we just seeing the tip of the iceberg?

Ticks are responsible for transmission of multiple bacterial, parasitic and viral diseases. Tick-borne diseases (TBDs) occur particularly in tropical and also subtropical areas. The frequency of these TBDs has been increasing and extending to new territories in a significant way, partly since ticks' populations are highly favored by prevailing factors such as change in land use patterns, and climate change. Therefore, in order to obtain accurate estimates of mortality, premature mortality, and disability associated about TBDs, more molecular and epidemiological studies in different regions of the world, including Latin America, are required. In the case of this region, there is still a limited number of published studies. In addition, there is recently the emergence and discovering of pathogens not reported previously in this region but present in other areas of the world. In this article we discuss some studies and implications about TBDs in Latin America, most of them, zoonotic and with evolving taxonomical issues.

Epidemiology of zoonotic tick-borne diseases in Latin America: Are we just seeing the tip of the iceberg?

Ticks are responsible for transmission of multiple bacterial, parasitic and viral diseases. Tick-borne diseases (TBDs) occur particularly in tropical and also subtropical areas. The frequency of these TBDs has been increasing and extending to new territories in a significant way, partly since ticks' populations are highly favored by prevailing factors such as change in land use patterns, and climate change. Therefore, in order to obtain accurate estimates of mortality, premature mortality, and disability associated about TBDs, more molecular and epidemiological studies in different regions of the world, including Latin America, are required. In the case of this region, there is still a limited number of published studies. In addition, there is recently the emergence and discovering of pathogens not reported previously in this region but present in other areas of the world. In this article we discuss some studies and implications about TBDs in Latin America, most of them, zoonotic and with evolving taxonomical issues.

Attenuation and Stability of CHIKV-NoLS, a Live-Attenuated Chikungunya Virus Vaccine Candidate

Our previous investigation of the nucleolar localisation sequence (NoLS) of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) capsid protein demonstrated the role of capsid in CHIKV virulence. Mutating the NoLS of capsid in CHIKV led to the development of a unique live-attenuated CHIKV vaccine candidate, termed CHIKV-NoLS. CHIKV-NoLS-immunised mice developed long-term immunity from CHIKV infection after a single dose. To further evaluate CHIKV-NoLS attenuation and suitability as a vaccine, we examined the footpad of inoculated mice for underlying CHIKV-NoLS-induced immunopathology by histological and flow cytometric analysis. In comparison to CHIKV-WT-infected mice, CHIKV-NoLS-inoculated mice exhibited minimal inflammation and tissue damage. To examine the stability of attenuation, the plaque phenotype and replication kinetics of CHIKV-NoLS were determined following extended in vitro passage. The average plaque size of CHIKV-NoLS remained notably smaller than CHIKV-WT after extended passage and attenuated replication was maintained. To examine thermostability, CHIKV-NoLS was stored at 21 °C, 4 °C, −20 °C and −80 °C and infectious CHIKV-NoLS quantified up to 84 days. The infectious titre of CHIKV-NoLS remains stable after 56 days when stored at either −20 °C or −80 °C. Interestingly, unlike CHIKV-WT, the infectious titre of CHIKV-NoLS is not sensitive to freeze thaw cycles. These data further demonstrate preclinical safety and stability of CHIKV-NoLS.

A scoping review of published literature on chikungunya virus

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) has caused several major epidemics globally over the last two decades and is quickly expanding into new areas. Although this mosquito-borne disease is self-limiting and is not associated with high mortality, it can lead to severe, chronic and disabling arthritis, thereby posing a heavy burden to healthcare systems. The two main vectors for CHIKV are Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito); however, many other mosquito species have been described as competent CHIKV vectors in scientific literature. With climate change, globalization and unfettered urban planning affecting many areas, CHIKV poses a significant public health risk to many countries. A scoping review was conducted to collate and categorize all pertinent information gleaned from published scientific literature on a priori defined aspects of CHIKV and its competent vectors. After developing a sensitive and specific search algorithm for the research question, seven databases were searched and data was extracted from 1920 relevant articles. Results show that CHIKV research is reported predominantly in areas after major epidemics have occurred. There has been an upsurge in CHIKV publications since 2011, especially after first reports of CHIKV emergence in the Americas. A list of hosts and vectors that could potentially be involved in the sylvatic and urban transmission cycles of CHIKV has been compiled in this scoping review. In addition, a repository of CHIKV mutations associated with evolutionary fitness and adaptation has been created by compiling and characterizing these genetic variants as reported in scientific literature.

Awareness and knowledge of Chikungunya infection following its outbreak in Pakistan among health care students and professionals: a nationwide survey

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) declares Chikungunya (CHIK) infection to be endemic in South Asia. Despite its first outbreak in Pakistan, no documented evidence exists which reveals the knowledge or awareness of healthcare students and workers (HCSW) regarding CHIK, its spread, symptoms, treatment and prevention. Since CHIK is an emergent infection in Pakistan, poor disease knowledge may result in a significant delay in diagnosis and treatment. The current study was aimed to evaluate the awareness and knowledge of CHIK among HCSW.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted among HCSW from teaching institutes and hospitals in seven provinces of Pakistan. We collected information on socio-demographic characteristics of the participants and their knowledge by using a 30-item questionnaire. The cumulative knowledge score (CKS) was calculated by correct answers with maximum score of 22. The relationship between demographics and knowledge score was evaluated by using appropriate statistical methods.

Results

There were 563 respondents; mean age 25.2 ± 5.9 years with female preponderance (62.5%). Of these, 319 (56.7%) were aware of CHIK infection before administering the survey. The average knowledge score was 12.8 ± 4.1 (% knowledge score: 58.2%). Only 31% respondents had good disease knowledge while others had fair (36.4%) and poor (32.6%) knowledge. Out of five knowledge domains, domain III (vector, disease spread and transmission) and V (prevention and treatment) scored lowest among all i.e. percent score 44.5% and 54.1%, respectively. We found that socio-demographic characteristics had no influence on knowledge score of the study participants.

Conclusion

Approximately one-half of participants were not aware of CHIK infection and those who were aware had insufficient disease knowledge. Findings of the current study underscore the dire need of educational interventions not only for health care workers but also for students, irrespective to the discipline of study.

Oxidative damage markers and inflammatory cytokines are altered in patients suffering with post-chikungunya persisting polyarthralgia

Redox homoeostasis is necessary for the maintenance of living systems. Chikungunya viral infection manifests into joint inflammation and debilitating polyarthralgia affecting the life style of the patient badly. The disease pathophysiology is poorly understood and there is a lack of targeted therapeutics. The pathogenic role of free radicals in arthritis is well established. This study aims for the first time to evaluate the status of several standard oxidative stress markers and their correlation in chikungunya patients suffering with polyarthralgia. Expression of Siglec-9 on monocytes; which can modulate oxidative stress is studied along with intracellular reactive oxygen species (ROS), cellular lipid and protein damage markers in chikungunya patients with/without persisting polyarthralgia along with healthy controls. Furthermore, plasma NO level, antioxidant status was investigated along with some inflammatory cytokines namely IL-6, IFN-γ, CXCL-9, IL-10 and TGFβ1. Interestingly, all oxidative damage markers are altered significantly in groups but their alteration levels vary in patients with/without persisting polyarthralgia. Siglec-9 expression level is increased in patients revealing cellular response to manage oxidative stress with respect to controls. Correlation studies reveal that intracellular ROS correlates well with most of the studied parameters but the correlation coefficient (Pearson r) differs with disease manifestation demonstrating strong role of these factors in a pro-oxidant milieu. The presence of free radicals increases the availability of neoantigens continuously, which possibly further cascades oxidative damage and development of persisting polyarthralgia.

Co-protoporphyrin IX and Sn-protoporphyrin IX inactivate Zika, Chikungunya and other arboviruses by targeting the viral envelope

The global situation of diseases transmitted by arthropod-borne viruses such as Dengue (DENV), Yellow Fever (YFV), Chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses is alarming and treatment of human infection by these arboviruses faces several challenges. The discovery of broad-spectrum antiviral molecules, able to inactivate different groups of viruses, is an interesting approach. The viral envelope is a common structure among arboviruses, being a potential target for antivirals. Porphyrins are amphipathic molecules able to interact with membranes and absorb light, being widely used in photodynamic therapy. Previously, we showed that heme, Co-protoporphyrin IX (CoPPIX) and Sn-protoporphyrin IX (SnPPIX) directly inactivate DENV and YFV infectious particles. Here we demonstrate that the antiviral activity of these porphyrins can be broadened to CHIKV, ZIKV, Mayaro virus, Sindbis virus and Vesicular Stomatitis virus. Porphyrin treatment causes viral envelope protein loss, affecting viral morphology, adsorption and entry into target cells. Also, light-stimulation enhanced the SnPPIX activity against all tested arboviruses. In summary, CoPPIX and SnPPIX were shown to be efficient broad-spectrum compounds to inactivate medically and veterinary important viruses.