Novel communities from climate change

Resource partitioning among pelagic predators remains stable despite annual variability in diet composition

Diet data are critical for describing predator resource use and partitioning among competitors. However, time series needed to properly assess variability in resource use and partitioning are limited, especially in pelagic (open ocean) ecosystems where predators and prey make broad use of horizontal and vertical habitats. We examined a diet time series spanning two decades (1998-2018) consisting of 2749 stomachs from 10 pelagic predators in the southern California Current Ecosystem (SCCE): albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga), Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis), swordfish (Xiphias gladius), blue shark (Prionace glauca), shortfin mako (Isurus oxyrinchus), common thresher shark (Alopias vulpinus), bigeye thresher shark (Alopias superciliosus), short-beaked common dolphin (Delphinus delphis), long-beaked common dolphin (Delphinus capensis) and northern right whale dolphin (Lissodelphis borealis). We quantified feeding habits with respect to prey taxonomy, length, vertical habitat and horizontal habitat. From 1998 to 2015, each predator exhibited diet variability but maintained consistent resource partitioning with the other predators. Across years, the diets of predators feeding mostly on shallow-living prey (<200 m) were more variable than those feeding on deeper-dwelling prey (>200 m). Following an increase in the abundance of northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) in the SCCE starting in 2015, the ecological niches of Pacific bluefin tuna and swordfish converged. During 2016-2018, both predators fed more heavily on northern anchovy and other prey that occupy shallow nearshore habitats. We show that pelagic predators can maintain resource partitioning under a wide range of conditions. However, we also observe that drastic changes in resource availability can alter the degree of niche partitioning among competitors, providing new perspectives on the flexibility of predator niches. As climate change continues to alter food webs, understanding how predators forage will be essential for anticipating changes to pelagic ecosystem structure and services.

Seasonal ecophysiology of two páramo species: the dominance of light over water limitations

Dry and rainy seasons in many ecosystems differ significantly in cloudiness, precipitation, and incident sunlight. These seasonal variations can influence photosynthesis by altering light availability and water stress. This study examines whether light availability or water stress is the primary limiting factor for photosynthesis in páramo plants during the dry and rainy seasons. We measured photosynthetic carbon gain per unit leaf area (An ), stomatal conductance (gs ), chlorophyll fluorescence (ϕPSII), and leaf water potentials, in two dominant páramo species, Espeletia grandiflora and Chusquea tessellata, across both seasons. Photosynthetic light-response curves were generated for each species, and statistical analyses assessed the relative influence of environmental factors such as light, temperature, and vapor pressure deficit on An. Contrary to our expectations, An was higher in the dry season despite increased water stress, suggesting that light availability is a stronger driver of carbon assimilation. However, light-response curves showed that Espeletia grandiflora exhibited higher potential carbon uptake during the dry season, while C. tessellata had greater uptake during the rainy season. Statistical analyses indicated that light was the primary factor influencing An in both seasons, though temperature and vapor pressure deficit also played a role for C. tessellata in the rainy season. The combination of high solar radiation and elevated leaf temperatures in the dry season facilitated greater carbon assimilation, particularly in E. grandiflora. In contrast, the cloudier conditions of the rainy season limited photosynthesis despite reduced water stress. Although C. tessellata exhibited high An during the dry season, it appeared vulnerable to high radiation and desiccation. These findings emphasize that cloud cover and light availability, rather than water stress alone, are key drivers of páramo plant carbon uptake, with important implications for predicting climate change effects in high-altitude ecosystems.

Chasing the Niche: Escaping Climate Change Threats in Place, Time, and Space

Climate change is creating mismatches between species' current environments and their historical niches. Locations that once had the abiotic and biotic conditions to support the persistence of a species may now be too warm, too dry, or simply too different, to meet their niche requirements. Changes in behaviors, altered phenology, and range shifts are common responses to climate change. Though these responses are often studied in isolation by scientists from disparate subfields of ecology, they all represent variants of the same solution-strategies to realign the conditions populations experience with their niche. Here, we aim to (1) identify the physiological and ecological effects, and potential alignment, of these three ecological responses: shifts in behavior, phenology, or ranges, (2) determine the circumstances under which each type of response may be more or less effective at mitigating the effects of climate change, and (3) consider how these strategies might interact with each other. Each response has been previously reviewed, but efforts to consider relationships between ecological (or with evolutionary) responses have been limited. A synthetic perspective that considers the similarities among ecological responses and how they interact with each other and with evolutionary responses offers a more robust view on species' resilience to climate change.

Climb forest, climb: diverse disperser communities are key to assist plants tracking climate change on altitudinal gradients

Climate change is forcing species to shift their distribution ranges. Animal seed dispersers might be particularly important in assisting plants tracking suitable climates to higher elevations. However, this role is still poorly understood due to a lack of comprehensive multi-guild datasets along elevational gradients. We compiled seed dispersal networks for the five altitudinal vegetation belts of the Tenerife Island (0-3718 m above sea level) to explore how plant and animal species might facilitate the mutual colonisation of uphill habitats under climate change. The overall network comprised 283 distinct interactions between 73 plant and 27 animal species, with seed dispersers offering viable pathways for plants to colonise upper vegetation belts. A pivotal role is played by a lizard as island-level hub, while four birds and one introduced mammal (rabbit) are also important connectors between belts. Eleven plant species were empirically found to be actively dispersed to elevations beyond their current known range, with observed vertical dispersal distances largely surpassing those required to escape climate change. Furthermore, over half of the plants arriving at higher elevations were exotic. Functionally diverse disperser communities are crucial for enabling plants tracking climate change on mountains, but exotic plants might particularly benefit from this upward lift.

How do red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) explore their environment? Characteristics of movement patterns in time and space

BACKGROUND

Many animals must adapt their movements to different conditions encountered during different life phases, such as when exploring extraterritorial areas for dispersal, foraging or breeding. To better understand how animals move in different movement phases, we asked whether movement patterns differ between one way directed movements, such as during the transient phase of dispersal or two way exploratory-like movements such as during extraterritorial excursions or stationary movements.

METHODS

We GPS collared red foxes in a rural area in southern Germany between 2020 and 2023. Using a random forest model, we analyzed different movement parameters, habitat features-for example landclasses and distances to linear structures-and time variables (season and time of day) within red fox exploratory, transient and stationary movement phases to characterize phase specific movement patterns and to investigate the influence of different variables on classifying the movement phases.

RESULTS

According to the classification model, the movement patterns in the different phases were characterized most strongly by the variables persistence velocity, season, step length and distance to linear structures. In extraterritorial areas, red foxes either moved straight with high persistence velocity, close to anthropogenic linear structures during transient movements, or more tortuously containing a higher variance in turning angles and a decrease in persistence velocity during exploratory-like movements. Transient movements mainly took place during autumn, whereas exploratory-like movements were mainly conducted during winter and spring.

CONCLUSION

Movement patterns of red foxes differ between transient, exploratory and stationary phases, reflecting displacement, searching and resident movement strategies. Our results signify the importance of the combined effect of using movement, habitat and time variables together in analyzing movement phases. High movement variability may allow red foxes to navigate in extraterritorial areas efficiently and to adapt to different environmental and behavioral conditions.

Unveiling Arthropod Responses to Climate Change: A Functional Trait Analysis in Intensive Pastures

This study investigates the impact of elevated temperatures on arthropod communities in intensively managed pastures on the volcanic island of Terceira, Azores (Portugal), using a functional trait approach. Open Top Chambers (OTCs) were employed to simulate increased temperatures, and the functional traits of ground dwelling arthropods were analyzed along a small elevation gradient (180-400 m) during winter and summer. Key findings include lower abundances of herbivores, coprophagous organisms, detritivores, and fungivores at high elevations in summer, with predators showing a peak at middle elevations. Larger-bodied arthropods were more prevalent at higher elevations during winter, while beetles exhibited distinct ecological traits, with larger species peaking at middle elevations. The OTCs significantly affected the arthropod communities, increasing the abundance of herbivores, predators, coprophagous organisms, and fungivores during winter by alleviating environmental stressors. Notably, iridescent beetles decreased with elevation and were more common inside OTCs at lower elevations, suggesting a thermoregulatory advantage. The study underscores the importance of considering functional traits in assessing the impacts of climate change on arthropod communities and highlights the complex, species-specific nature of their responses to environmental changes.

Conservation Mitonuclear Replacement: Facilitated mitochondrial adaptation for a changing world

Most species will not be able to migrate fast enough to cope with climate change, nor evolve quickly enough with current levels of genetic variation. Exacerbating the problem are anthropogenic influences on adaptive potential, including the prevention of gene flow through habitat fragmentation and the erosion of genetic diversity in small, bottlenecked populations. Facilitated adaptation, or assisted evolution, offers a way to augment adaptive genetic variation via artificial selection, induced hybridization, or genetic engineering. One key source of genetic variation, particularly for climatic adaptation, are the core metabolic genes encoded by the mitochondrial genome. These genes influence environmental tolerance to heat, drought, and hypoxia, but must interact intimately and co-evolve with a suite of important nuclear genes. These coadapted mitonuclear genes form some of the important reproductive barriers between species. Mitochondrial genomes can and do introgress between species in an adaptive manner, and they may co-introgress with nuclear genes important for maintaining mitonuclear compatibility. Managers should consider the relevance of mitonuclear genetic variability in conservation decision-making, including as a tool for facilitating adaptation. I propose a novel technique dubbed Conservation Mitonuclear Replacement (CmNR), which entails replacing the core metabolic machinery of a threatened species-the mitochondrial genome and key nuclear loci-with those from a closely related species or a divergent population, which may be better-adapted to climatic changes or carry a lower genetic load. The most feasible route to CmNR is to combine CRISPR-based nuclear genetic editing with mitochondrial replacement and assisted reproductive technologies. This method preserves much of an organism's phenotype and could allow populations to persist in the wild when no other suitable conservation options exist. The technique could be particularly important on mountaintops, where rising temperatures threaten an alarming number of species with almost certain extinction in the next century.

Combined threats of climate change and contaminant exposure through the lens of bioenergetics

Organisms face energetic challenges of climate change in combination with suites of natural and anthropogenic stressors. In particular, chemical contaminant exposure has neurotoxic, endocrine-disrupting, and behavioral effects which may additively or interactively combine with challenges associated with climate change. We used a literature review across animal taxa and contaminant classes, but focused on Arctic endotherms and contaminants important in Arctic ecosystems, to demonstrate potential for interactive effects across five bioenergetic domains: (1) energy supply, (2) energy demand, (3) energy storage, (4) energy allocation tradeoffs, and (5) energy management strategies; and involving four climate change-sensitive environmental stressors: changes in resource availability, temperature, predation risk, and parasitism. Identified examples included relatively equal numbers of synergistic and antagonistic interactions. Synergies are often suggested to be particularly problematic, since they magnify biological effects. However, we emphasize that antagonistic effects on bioenergetic traits can be equally problematic, since they can reflect dampening of beneficial responses and result in negative synergistic effects on fitness. Our review also highlights that empirical demonstrations remain limited, especially in endotherms. Elucidating the nature of climate change-by-contaminant interactive effects on bioenergetic traits will build toward determining overall outcomes for energy balance and fitness. Progressing to determine critical species, life stages, and target areas in which transformative effects arise will aid in forecasting broad-scale bioenergetic outcomes under global change scenarios.

Tropical Trees Will Need to Acclimate to Rising Temperatures-But Can They?

For tropical forests to survive anthropogenic global warming, trees will need to avoid rising temperatures through range shifts and "species migrations" or tolerate the newly emerging conditions through adaptation and/or acclimation. In this literature review, we synthesize the available knowledge to show that although many tropical tree species are shifting their distributions to higher, cooler elevations, the rates of these migrations are too slow to offset ongoing changes in temperatures, especially in lowland tropical rainforests where thermal gradients are shallow or nonexistent. We also show that the rapidity and severity of global warming make it unlikely that tropical tree species can adapt (with some possible exceptions). We argue that the best hope for tropical tree species to avoid becoming "committed to extinction" is individual-level acclimation. Although several new methods are being used to test for acclimation, we unfortunately still do not know if tropical tree species can acclimate, how acclimation abilities vary between species, or what factors may prevent or facilitate acclimation. Until all of these questions are answered, our ability to predict the fate of tropical species and tropical forests-and the many services that they provide to humanity-remains critically impaired.

Changing with the times: Seasonal environmental gradients unveil dynamic bat assemblages and vulnerability

Uncovering the temporal and spatial dynamics of biological communities in response to biotic and abiotic drivers is essential to predict the effects of environmental change on biodiversity. Similarly, estimating species vulnerability in the face of such dynamics is crucial for implementing effective conservation actions. We explored how bat diversity changes over the year across an altitudinal gradient and identified the environmental drivers that shape bat communities. By analysing species' marginality within the biophysical niche space, we evaluated bats' vulnerability to foreseeable environmental changes. Our results suggest that altitude, the proportion of forest cover and shrub cover are the main drivers shaping bat communities year-round. Additionally, while some bat species are restricted to a single ecological assemblage (or ecological preferences group), others show greater plasticity throughout the year. Importantly, we found that although bats associated with highland habitats and forests could be particularly vulnerable to environmental changes (in particular Myotis mystacinus), this vulnerability correlates poorly with their national conservation status. We suggest that species' ecological plasticity is critical for the resilience of biological communities exposed to environmental changes and should be considered when planning tailored conservation strategies.

Brood size in an uncertain world

Reproduction in an uncertain world is fraught. The consequences of investing in too many offspring in a resource poor season can be disastrous but so too is missing the opportunity of a resource rich year. We consider a simple population and individual growth model and use Lyapunov exponents to find analytical results for the optimum brood size under stochastic environmental conditions. We show that if the environment shows dramatic changes between breeding seasons choosing a smaller brood size is more likely to be successful but the best strategy is to synchronize your reproduction to the food availability. Finally, we show that if the cost of having offspring is high it can be better to live in a highly varying world with a plastic strategy that synchronizes to the environment than to live in a deterministic world with a constant strategy, a finding with implications for invasive species and climate change.

Marine heatwaves and decreased light availability interact to erode the ecophysiological performance of habitat-forming kelp species

Coastal marine ecosystems are threatened by a range of anthropogenic stressors, operating at global, local, and temporal scales. We investigated the impact of marine heatwaves (MHWs) combined with decreased light availability over two seasons on the ecophysiological responses of three kelp species (Laminaria digitata, L. hyperborea, and L. ochroleuca). These species function as important habitat-forming foundation organisms in the northeast Atlantic and have distinct but overlapping latitudinal distributions and thermal niches. Under low-light conditions, summertime MHWs induced significant declines in biomass, blade surface area, and Fv/Fm values (a measure of photosynthetic efficiency) in the cool-water kelps L. digitata and L. hyperborea, albeit to varying degrees. Under high-light conditions, all species were largely resistant to simulated MHW activity. In springtime, MHWs had minimal impacts and in some cases promoted kelp performance, while reduced light availability resulted in lower growth rates. While some species were negatively affected by summer MHWs under low-light conditions (particularly L. digitata), they were generally resilient to MHWs under high-light conditions. As such, maintaining good environmental quality and water clarity may increase resilience of populations to summertime MHWs. Our study informs predictions of how habitat-forming foundation kelp species will be affected by interacting, concurrent stressors, typical of compound events that are intensifying under anthropogenic climate change.

The utility of body size as a functional trait to link the past and present in a diverse reptile clade

Understanding the relationships between functional traits and environment is increasingly important for assessing ecosystem health and forecasting biotic responses to future environmental change. Taxon-free analyses of functional traits (ecometrics) allow for testing the performance of such traits through time, utilizing both the fossil record and paleoenvironmental proxies. Here, we test the role of body size as a functional trait with respect to climate, using turtles as a model system. We examine the influence of mass-specific metabolic rate as a functional factor in the sorting of body size with environmental temperature and investigate the utility of community body size composition as an ecometric correlated to climate variables. We then apply our results to the fossil record of the Plio-Pleistocene Shungura Formation in Ethiopia. Results show that turtle body sizes scale with mass-specific metabolic rate for larger taxa, but not for the majority of species, indicating that metabolism is not a primary driver of size. Body size ecometrics have stronger predictive power at continental than at global scales, but without a single, dominant predictive functional relationship. Application of ecometrics to the Shungura fossil record suggests that turtle paleocommunity ecometrics coarsely track independent paleoclimate estimates at local scales. We hypothesize that both human disruption and biotic interactions limit the ecometric fit of size to climate in this clade. Nonetheless, examination of the consistency of trait-environment relationships through deep and shallow time provides a means for testing anthropogenic influences on ecosystems.

Climate-related range shifts in Arctic-breeding shorebirds

Aim

To test whether the occupancy of shorebirds has changed in the eastern Canadian Arctic, and whether these changes could indicate that shorebird distributions are shifting in response to long-term climate change.

Location

Foxe Basin and Rasmussen Lowlands, Nunavut, Canada.

Methods

We used a unique set of observations, made 25 years apart, using general linear models to test if there was a relationship between changes in shorebird species' occupancy and their species temperature Index, a simple version of a species climate envelope.

Results

Changes in occupancy and density varied widely across species, with some increasing and some decreasing. This is despite that overall population trends are known to be negative for all of these species based on surveys during migration. The changes in occupancy that we observed were positively related to the species temperature index, such that the warmer-breeding species appear to be moving into these regions, while colder-breeding species appear to be shifting out of the regions, likely northward.

Main Conclusions

Our results suggest that we should be concerned about declining breeding habitat availability for bird species whose current breeding ranges are centered on higher and colder latitudes.

Linking human impacts to community processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems

Human impacts such as habitat loss, climate change and biological invasions are radically altering biodiversity, with greater effects projected into the future. Evidence suggests human impacts may differ substantially between terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but the reasons for these differences are poorly understood. We propose an integrative approach to explain these differences by linking impacts to four fundamental processes that structure communities: dispersal, speciation, species-level selection and ecological drift. Our goal is to provide process-based insights into why human impacts, and responses to impacts, may differ across ecosystem types using a mechanistic, eco-evolutionary comparative framework. To enable these insights, we review and synthesise (i) how the four processes influence diversity and dynamics in terrestrial versus freshwater communities, specifically whether the relative importance of each process differs among ecosystems, and (ii) the pathways by which human impacts can produce divergent responses across ecosystems, due to differences in the strength of processes among ecosystems we identify. Finally, we highlight research gaps and next steps, and discuss how this approach can provide new insights for conservation. By focusing on the processes that shape diversity in communities, we aim to mechanistically link human impacts to ongoing and future changes in ecosystems.

Hindcast-validated species distribution models reveal future vulnerabilities of mangroves and salt marsh species

Rapid climate change is threatening biodiversity via habitat loss, range shifts, increases in invasive species, novel species interactions, and other unforeseen changes. Coastal and estuarine species are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to sea level rise and may be severely impacted in the next several decades. Species distribution modeling can project the potential future distributions of species under scenarios of climate change using bioclimatic data and georeferenced occurrence data. However, models projecting suitable habitat into the future are impossible to ground truth. One solution is to develop species distribution models for the present and project them to periods in the recent past where distributions are known to test model performance before making projections into the future. Here, we develop models using abiotic environmental variables to quantify the current suitable habitat available to eight Neotropical coastal species: four mangrove species and four salt marsh species. Using a novel model validation approach that leverages newly available monthly climatic data from 1960 to 2018, we project these niche models into two time periods in the recent past (i.e., within the past half century) when either mangrove or salt marsh dominance was documented via other data sources. Models were hindcast-validated and then used to project the suitable habitat of all species at four time periods in the future under a model of climate change. For all future time periods, the projected suitable habitat of mangrove species decreased, and suitable habitat declined more severely in salt marsh species.

Ecological network complexity scales with area

Larger geographical areas contain more species-an observation raised to a law in ecology. Less explored is whether biodiversity changes are accompanied by a modification of interaction networks. We use data from 32 spatial interaction networks from different ecosystems to analyse how network structure changes with area. We find that basic community structure descriptors (number of species, links and links per species) increase with area following a power law. Yet, the distribution of links per species varies little with area, indicating that the fundamental organization of interactions within networks is conserved. Our null model analyses suggest that the spatial scaling of network structure is determined by factors beyond species richness and the number of links. We demonstrate that biodiversity-area relationships can be extended from species counts to higher levels of network complexity. Therefore, the consequences of anthropogenic habitat destruction may extend from species loss to wider simplification of natural communities.

Resilience of seagrass populations to thermal stress does not reflect regional differences in ocean climate

The prevalence of local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity among populations is critical to accurately predicting when and where climate change impacts will occur. Currently, comparisons of thermal performance between populations are untested for most marine species or overlooked by models predicting the thermal sensitivity of species to extirpation. Here we compared the ecological response and recovery of seagrass populations (Posidonia oceanica) to thermal stress throughout a year-long translocation experiment across a 2800-km gradient in ocean climate. Transplants in central and warm-edge locations experienced temperatures > 29°C, representing thermal anomalies > 5°C above long-term maxima for cool-edge populations, 1.5°C for central and < 1°C for warm-edge populations. Cool-edge, central and warm-edge populations differed in thermal performance when grown under common conditions, but patterns contrasted with expectations based on thermal geography. Cool-edge populations did not differ from warm-edge populations under common conditions and performed significantly better than central populations in growth and survival. Our findings reveal that thermal performance does not necessarily reflect the thermal geography of a species. We demonstrate that warm-edge populations can be less sensitive to thermal stress than cooler, central populations suggesting that Mediterranean seagrasses have greater resilience to warming than current paradigms suggest.

Impacts of Warming on Reciprocal Subsidies Between Aquatic and Terrestrial Ecosystems

Cross-ecosystem subsidies are important as their recipients often rely on them to supplement in situ resource availability. Global warming has the potential to alter the quality and quantity of these subsidies, but our knowledge of these effects is currently limited. Here, we quantified the biomass and diversity of the invertebrates exchanged between freshwater streams and terrestrial grasslands in a natural warming experiment in Iceland. We sampled invertebrates emerging from the streams, those landing on the water surface, ground-dwelling invertebrates falling into the streams, and those drifting through the streams. Emerging invertebrate biomass or diversity did not change with increasing temperature, suggesting no effect of warming on aquatic subsidies to the terrestrial environment over the 1-month duration of the study. The biomass and diversity of aerial invertebrates of terrestrial origin landing on the streams increased with temperature, underpinned by increasing abundance and species richness, indicating that the greater productivity of the warmer streams may attract more foraging insects. The biomass of ground-dwelling invertebrates falling into the streams also increased with temperature, underpinned by increasing body mass and species evenness, suggesting that soil warming leads to terrestrial communities dominated by larger, more mobile organisms, and thus more in-fall to the streams. The biomass and diversity of terrestrial invertebrates in the drift decreased with temperature, however, underpinned by decreasing abundance and species richness, reflecting upstream consumption due to the higher energetic demands of aquatic consumers in warmer environments. These results highlight the potential for asynchronous responses to warming for reciprocal subsidies between aquatic and terrestrial environments and the importance of further research on warming impacts at the interface of these interdependent ecosystems.

Differential tolerance of species alters the seasonal response of marine epifauna to extreme warming

Marine heatwaves are occurring with greater frequency and magnitude worldwide and can significantly alter community structure and ecosystem function. Predicting changes in community structure in extreme temperatures requires an understanding of variation among species in their thermal tolerance, and how potential acclimatization to recent temperatures influences survival. To address this, we determined the tolerance to extreme temperatures in a crustacean epifaunal assemblage that inhabits macroalgae in the southeast Australian ocean warming hotspot. Amphipods were the most abundant group and the thermal tolerance of the most abundant species (two in winter and four in summer) was tested to determine their thermal limits and probability of survival in near-future extreme temperatures. Survival, measured as time to immobilization, was compared across species, sexes, life stage and body size. The greatest variation in tolerance to extreme temperatures was among species (not body sizes or life stages), indicating that heatwaves could shift the composition of the macroalgal associated epifaunal assemblage. Comparison of recent thermal history (between 18 °C to 22 °C) revealed greater thermal tolerance of warm acclimatized individuals. Our results indicate that the impacts of a marine heatwave will depend on local species composition and their timing relative to recent climate conditions.

Predators balance consequences of climate-change-induced habitat shifts for range-shifting and resident species

While many species distributions are shifting poleward or up in elevation in response to a changing climate, others are shifting their habitats along localized gradients in environmental conditions as abiotic conditions become more stressful. Whether species are moving across regional or local environmental gradients in response to climate change, range-shifting species become embedded in established communities of competitors and predators. The consequences of these shifts for both resident and shifting species are often unknown, as it can be difficult to isolate the effects of multiple species interactions. Using a model system of insects in high-elevation ponds in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado, we sought to disentangle the effects of predation and intraguild interactions on the survival and development of a semi-permanent pond resident caddisfly Limnephilus externus and the habitat-shifting caddis Asynarchus nigriculus that is being forced into semi-permanent ponds as temporary ponds dry too quickly to complete development. We conducted a manipulative in-situ pond cage experiment in which L. externus and A. nigriculus caddisfly larvae in single-species treatments and together were exposed to the presence/absence of predatory Dytiscus diving beetle larvae. This approach allowed us to isolate the effects of intraguild interactions and predation on the survival and development of both the resident and habitat-shifting species. We found that intraguild interactions had strong negative effects on the resident and habitat-shifting species. Intraguild interactions reduced the survival of the resident L. externus and increased the variation in survival of the shifting A. nigriculus. However, Dytiscus predators reduced these negative effects, stabilizing the community by increasing L. externus survival and reducing variation in A. nigriculus survival. We also found that intraguild interactions reduced L. externus biomass but resulted in increased A. nigriculus development. A. nigriculus development was also increased by predation. Our results show that strong intraguild interactions between resident and shifting species are likely to have negative consequences for both species. However, the presence of predators reduces these negative consequences of the habitat shift on both the resident and the shifting.

Climate-induced outbreaks in high-elevation pines are driven primarily by immigration of bark beetles from historical hosts

Warming temperatures are allowing native insect herbivores to expand into regions that previously exceeded their thermal tolerance, encounter new host species, and pose significant threats to native communities. However, the dynamics of these expansions remain poorly understood, particularly in the extent to which outbreaks remain reliant on emigration from historical hosts or are driven by local reproduction within novel hosts in the expanded range. We tested these non-mutually exclusive hypotheses using spatially explicit data on mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), which historically undergoes intermittent outbreaks in low-elevation lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta), but is now causing severe mortality in a high-elevation endangered species, whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis). We compiled data from 2000 to 2019 across British Columbia, Canada, at 1-km² resolution, and analyzed spatiotemporal patterns of beetle infestations, lodgepole pine distributions, expansion into habitats dominated by whitebark pine, and the likelihood of future outbreaks in all pine communities under simulated conditions. Overall, we found strong support for the hypothesis of emigration from the historical host species continuing to be a major driver of outbreaks in the more recently accessed host. First, beetle population pressure was consistently the best predictor of infestation severity in both lodgepole and whitebark pine, and appeared to be mostly unidirectional from lodgepole to whitebark pine. Second, infestations in lodgepole pine were of a longer duration than those in whitebark pine, which appeared too brief to sustain transitions from endemic to eruptive dynamics. Furthermore, resource depletion appears to drive emigration from lodgepole pine, whereas in whitebark pine drought appears to favor establishment of immigrants although bioclimatic factors and stand structure preclude self-sustaining outbreaks. Finally, we project that most pine in British Columbia will be at risk in the event of a new major outbreak. We describe implications for conserving and protecting whitebark pine and to other climate-driven range expansions.

Linking climate niches across seasons to assess population vulnerability in a migratory bird

Global loss of biodiversity has placed new urgency on the need to understand factors regulating species response to rapid environmental change. While specialists are often less resilient to rapid environmental change than generalists, species-level analyses may obscure the extent of specialization when locally adapted populations vary in climate tolerances. Until recently, quantification of the degree of climate specialization in migratory birds below the species level was hindered by a lack of genomic and tracking information, but recent technological advances have helped to overcome these barriers. Here we take a genome-wide genetic approach to mapping population-specific migratory routes and quantifying niche breadth within genetically distinct populations of a migratory bird, the willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii), which exhibits variation in the severity of population declines across its breeding range. While our sample size is restricted to the number of genetically distinct populations within the species, our results support the idea that locally adapted populations of the willow flycatcher with narrow climatic niches across seasons are already federally listed as endangered or in steep decline, while populations with broader climatic niches have remained stable in recent decades. Overall, this work highlights the value of quantifying niche breadth within genetically distinct groups across time and space when attempting to understand the factors that facilitate or constrain the response of locally adapted populations to rapid environmental change.

Expanding insect pollinators in the Anthropocene

Global changes are severely affecting pollinator insect communities worldwide, resulting in repeated patterns of species extirpations and extinctions. Whilst negative population trends within this functional group have understandably received much attention in recent decades, another facet of global changes has been overshadowed: species undergoing expansion. Here, we review the factors and traits that have allowed a fraction of the pollinating entomofauna to take advantage of global environmental change. Sufficient mobility, high resistance to acute heat stress, and inherent adaptation to warmer climates appear to be key traits that allow pollinators to persist and even expand in the face of climate change. An overall flexibility in dietary and nesting requirements is common in expanding species, although niche specialization can also drive expansion under specific contexts. The numerous consequences of wild and domesticated pollinator expansions, including competition for resources, pathogen spread, and hybridization with native wildlife, are also discussed. Overall, we show that the traits and factors involved in the success stories of expanding pollinators are mostly species specific and context dependent, rendering generalizations of 'winning traits' complicated. This work illustrates the increasing need to consider expansion and its numerous consequences as significant facets of global changes and encourages efforts to monitor the impacts of expanding insect pollinators, particularly exotic species, on natural ecosystems.

The impact of climate warming on species diversity across scales: Lessons from experimental meta-ecosystems

AIM

The aim was to evaluate the effects of climate warming on biodiversity across spatial scales (i.e., α-, β- and γ-diversity) and the effects of patch openness and experimental context on diversity responses.

LOCATION

Global.

TIME PERIOD

1995-2017.

MAJOR TAXA STUDIED

Fungi, invertebrates, phytoplankton, plants, seaweed, soil microbes and zooplankton.

METHODS

We compiled data from warming experiments and conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the effects of warming on different components of diversity (such as species richness and equivalent numbers) at different spatial scales (α-, β- and γ-diversity, partitioning β-diversity into species turnover and nestedness components). We also investigated how these effects were modulated by system openness, defined as the possibility of replicates being colonized by new species, and experimental context (duration, mean temperature change and ecosystem type).

RESULTS

Experimental warming did not affect local species richness (α-diversity) but decreased effective numbers of species by affecting species dominance. Warming increased species spatial turnover (β-diversity), although no significant changes were detected at the regional scale (γ-diversity). Site openness and experimental context did not significantly affect our results, despite significant heterogeneity in the effect sizes of α- and β-diversity.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis shows that the effects of warming on biodiversity are scale dependent. The local and regional inventory diversity remain unaltered, whereas species composition across temperature gradients and the patterns of species dominance change with temperature, creating novel communities that might be harder to predict.

Warming indirectly increases invasion success in food webs

Climate warming and biological invasions are key drivers of biodiversity change. Their combined effects on ecological communities remain largely unexplored. We investigated the direct and indirect influences of temperature on invasion success, and their synergistic effects on community structure and dynamics. Using size-structured food web models, we found that higher temperatures increased invasion success. The direct physiological effects of temperature on invasions were minimal in comparison with indirect effects mediated by changes on food web structure and stability. Warmer communities with less connectivity, shortened food chains and reduced temporal variability were more susceptible to invasions. The directionality and magnitude of invasions effects on food webs varied across temperature regimes. When invaded, warmer communities became smaller, more connected and with more predator species than their colder counterparts. They were also less stable and their species more abundant. Considering food web structure is crucial to predict invasion success and its impacts along temperature gradients.

Post-2020 biodiversity targets need to embrace climate change

Recent assessment reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) have highlighted the risks to humanity arising from the unsustainable use of natural resources. Thus far, land, freshwater, and ocean exploitation have been the chief causes of biodiversity loss. Climate change is projected to be a rapidly increasing additional driver for biodiversity loss. Since climate change and biodiversity loss impact human societies everywhere, bold solutions are required that integrate environmental and societal objectives. As yet, most existing international biodiversity targets have overlooked climate change impacts. At the same time, climate change mitigation measures themselves may harm biodiversity directly. The Convention on Biological Diversity’s post-2020 framework offers the important opportunity to address the interactions between climate change and biodiversity and revise biodiversity targets accordingly by better aligning these with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. We identify the considerable number of existing and proposed post-2020 biodiversity targets that risk being severely compromised due to climate change, even if other barriers to their achievement were removed. Our analysis suggests that the next set of biodiversity targets explicitly addresses climate change-related risks since many aspirational goals will not be feasible under even lower-end projections of future warming. Adopting more flexible and dynamic approaches to conservation, rather than static goals, would allow us to respond flexibly to changes in habitats, genetic resources, species composition, and ecosystem functioning and leverage biodiversity’s capacity to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Tricky partners: native plants show stronger interaction preferences than their exotic counterparts

In ecological networks, neutral predictions suggest that species' interaction frequencies are proportional to their relative abundances. Deviations from neutral predictions thus correspond to interaction preferences (when positive) or avoidances (when negative), driven by nonneutral (e.g., niche-based) processes. Exotic species interact with many partners with which they have not coevolved, and it remains unclear whether this systematically influences the strength of neutral processes on interactions, and how these interaction-level differences scale up to entire networks. To fill this gap, we compared interactions between plants and frugivorous birds at nine forest sites in New Zealand varying in the relative abundance and composition of native and exotic species, with independently sampled data on bird and plant abundances from the same sites. We tested if the strength and direction of interaction preferences differed between native and exotic species. We further evaluated whether the performance of neutral predictions at the site level was predicted by the proportion of exotic interactions in each network from both bird and plant perspectives, and the species composition in each site. We found that interactions involving native plants deviated more strongly from neutral predictions than did interactions involving exotics. This "pickiness" of native plants could be detrimental in a context of global biotic homogenization where they could be increasingly exposed to novel interactions with neutrally interacting mutualists. However, the realization of only a subset of interactions in different sites compensated for the neutrality of interactions involving exotics, so that neutral predictions for whole networks did not change systematically with the proportion of exotic species or species composition. Therefore, the neutral and niche processes that underpin individual interactions may not scale up to entire networks. This shows that seemingly simplistic neutral assumptions entail complex processes and can provide valuable understanding of community assembly or invasion dynamics.

Temperature variability alters the stability and thresholds for collapse of interacting species

Temperature variability and extremes can have profound impacts on populations and ecological communities. Predicting impacts of thermal variability poses a challenge, because it has both direct physiological effects and indirect effects through species interactions. In addition, differences in thermal performance between predators and prey and nonlinear averaging of temperature-dependent performance can result in complex and counterintuitive population dynamics in response to climate change. Yet the combined consequences of these effects remain underexplored. Here, modelling temperature-dependent predator-prey dynamics, we study how changes in temperature variability affect population size, collapse and stable coexistence of both predator and prey, relative to under constant environments or warming alone. We find that the effects of temperature variation on interacting species can lead to a diversity of outcomes, from predator collapse to stable coexistence, depending on interaction strengths and differences in species' thermal performance. Temperature variability also alters predictions about population collapse-in some cases allowing predators to persist for longer than predicted when considering warming alone, and in others accelerating collapse. To inform management responses that are robust to future climates with increasing temperature variability and extremes, we need to incorporate the consequences of temperature variation in complex ecosystems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation'.

Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation

Whereas the conservation and management of biodiversity has become a key issue in environmental sciences and policy in general, the conservation of marine biodiversity faces additional challenges such as the challenges of accessing field sites (e.g. polar, deep sea), knowledge gaps regarding biodiversity trends, high mobility of many organisms in fluid environments, and ecosystem-specific obstacles to stakeholder engagement and governance. This issue comprises contributions from a diverse international group of scientists in a benchmarking volume for a common research agenda on marine conservation. We begin by addressing information gaps on marine biodiversity trends through novel approaches and technologies, then linking such information to ecosystem functioning through a focus on traits. We then leverage the knowledge of these relationships to inform theory aiming at predicting the future composition and functioning of marine communities. Finally, we elucidate the linkages between marine ecosystems and human societies by examining economic, management and governance approaches that contribute to effective marine conservation in practice. This article is part of the theme issue 'Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation'.

The role of connectivity in the interplay between climate change and the spread of alien fish in a large Mediterranean river

Understanding how global change and connectivity will jointly modify the distribution of riverine species is crucial for conservation biology and environmental management. However, little is known about the interaction between climate change and fragmentation and how movement barriers might impede native species from adjusting their distributions versus limit the further spread of alien species. In this study, we modelled the current and future distributions of 11 native and five alien fishes in the large and heavily fragmented Ebro River, located within the Mediterranean region, which has many freshwater endemics severely threatened by global change. We considered 10 climate change models and five modelling algorithms and assessed the effects of connectivity on the accessibility of future suitable habitats. Thereby, we identify most conflict-prone river reaches, that is, where barriers pose a particular trade-off between isolating and negatively impacting native species versus potentially reducing the risk of alien species spread. Our results projected upstream habitat shifts for the vast majority of the species. Climate change affected species differently, with alien species generally showing larger habitat gains compared to natives. Most pronounced distributional changes (i.e. losses of native species and gains of alien species) and compositional turnover might be expected in the lower and mid reaches of large tributaries of the Ebro River. The role of anthropogenic barriers in this context is often ambiguous but rather unfavourable, as they not only restrict native fishes but also alter stream habitats and flow conditions. However, with our spatial modelling framework, we could identify specific river reaches where the connectivity trade-off in the context of climate change is particularly relevant. Overall, our findings emphasize the importance of the complex effects that climate change, riverine connectivity and alien species are expected to impose on river communities and the urgent need to adapt management strategies accordingly.

Identifying island safe havens to prevent the extinction of the World's largest lizard from global warming

The Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis) is an endangered, island‐endemic species with a naturally restricted distribution. Despite this, no previous studies have attempted to predict the effects of climate change on this iconic species. We used extensive Komodo dragon monitoring data, climate, and sea‐level change projections to build spatially explicit demographic models for the Komodo dragon. These models project the species’ future range and abundance under multiple climate change scenarios. We ran over one million model simulations with varying model parameters, enabling us to incorporate uncertainty introduced from three main sources: (a) structure of global climate models, (b) choice of greenhouse gas emission trajectories, and (c) estimates of Komodo dragon demographic parameters. Our models predict a reduction in range‐wide Komodo dragon habitat of 8%–87% by 2050, leading to a decrease in habitat patch occupancy of 25%–97% and declines of 27%–99% in abundance across the species' range. We show that the risk of extirpation on the two largest protected islands in Komodo National Park (Rinca and Komodo) was lower than other island populations, providing important safe havens for Komodo dragons under global warming. Given the severity and rate of the predicted changes to Komodo dragon habitat patch occupancy (a proxy for area of occupancy) and abundance, urgent conservation actions are required to avoid risk of extinction. These should, as a priority, be focused on managing habitat on the islands of Komodo and Rinca, reflecting these islands’ status as important refuges for the species in a warming world. Variability in our model projections highlights the importance of accounting for uncertainties in demographic and environmental parameters, structural assumptions of global climate models, and greenhouse gas emission scenarios when simulating species metapopulation dynamics under climate change.

Unfamiliar partnerships limit cnidarian holobiont acclimation to warming

Enhancing the resilience of corals to rising temperatures is now a matter of urgency, leading to growing efforts to explore the use of heat tolerant symbiont species to improve their thermal resilience. The notion that adaptive traits can be retained by transferring the symbionts alone, however, challenges the holobiont concept, a fundamental paradigm in coral research. Holobiont traits are products of a specific community (holobiont) and all its co-evolutionary and local adaptations, which might limit the retention or transference of holobiont traits by exchanging only one partner. Here we evaluate how interchanging partners affect the short- and long-term performance of holobionts under heat stress using clonal lineages of the cnidarian model system Aiptasia (host and Symbiodiniaceae strains) originating from distinct thermal environments. Our results show that holobionts from more thermally variable environments have higher plasticity to heat stress, but this resilience could not be transferred to other host genotypes through the exchange of symbionts. Importantly, our findings highlight the role of the host in determining holobiont productivity in response to thermal stress and indicate that local adaptations of holobionts will likely limit the efficacy of interchanging unfamiliar compartments to enhance thermal tolerance.

Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse

Climate change is impacting fisheries worldwide with uncertain outcomes for food and nutritional security. Using management strategy evaluations for key US fisheries in the eastern Bering Sea we find that Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) measures forestall future declines under climate change over non-EBFM approaches. Yet, benefits are species-specific and decrease markedly after 2050. Under high-baseline carbon emission scenarios (RCP 8.5), end-of-century (2075–2100) pollock and Pacific cod fisheries collapse in >70% and >35% of all simulations, respectively. Our analysis suggests that 2.1–2.3 °C (modeled summer bottom temperature) is a tipping point of rapid decline in gadid biomass and catch. Multiyear stanzas above 2.1 °C become commonplace in projections from ~2030 onward, with higher agreement under RCP 8.5 than simulations with moderate carbon mitigation (i.e., RCP 4.5). We find that EBFM ameliorates climate change impacts on fisheries in the near-term, but long-term EBFM benefits are limited by the magnitude of anticipated change.

Ecosystem Based Management measures developed to prevent overfishing could be particularly important under climate change. Here the authors combine climate and fish stock modelling to show that EBM cap implementation reduces climate-driven fishery declines under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 before midcentury. However, there are thermal tipping points beyond which potential collapses are predicted.

Community context and dispersal stochasticity drive variation in spatial spread

Dispersal is a key process in shaping species spatial distributions. Species interactions and variation in dispersal probabilities may jointly influence species spatial dynamics. However, many studies examine dispersal as a neutral process, independent of community context or intraspecific variation in dispersal behaviour. Here, we use controlled, replicated communities of two Tribolium species (T. castaneum and T. confusum) to examine how intraspecific variation in dispersal behaviour and community context influence dispersal dynamics in simple experimental landscapes composed of homogeneous habitat patches. We found considerable individual-level variation in dispersal probability that was unrelated to body size variation. Further, the context of dispersal mattered, as T. castaneum dispersal was reduced in two-species communities, while T. confusum dispersal was unaffected by community composition. Incorporating individual-level variation into a two-species stochastic spatial Ricker model, we provide evidence that individual-level variability in dispersal behaviour results in more variable spatial spread than assuming individuals have the same dispersal probability. Further, interspecific competition resulted in more variable spatial spread. The variability in spatial spread observed in our tightly controlled and replicated experimental system and in our stochastic model simulations points to potential fundamental limitations in forecasting species shifting ranges without considering potential interspecific interactions and demographic variability in dispersal behaviour.

Novel feeding interactions amplify the impact of species redistribution on an Arctic food web

Species are redistributing globally in response to climate warming, impacting ecosystem functions and services. In the Barents Sea, poleward expansion of boreal species and a decreased abundance of Arctic species are causing a rapid borealization of the Arctic communities. This borealization might have profound consequences on the Arctic food web by creating novel feeding interactions between previously non co-occurring species. An early identification of new feeding links is crucial to predict their ecological impact. However, detection by traditional approaches, including stomach content and isotope analyses, although fundamental, cannot cope with the speed of change observed in the region, nor with the urgency of understanding the consequences of species redistribution for the marine ecosystem. In this study, we used an extensive food web (metaweb) with nearly 2,500 documented feeding links between 239 taxa coupled with a trait data set to predict novel feeding interactions and to quantify their potential impact on Arctic food web structure. We found that feeding interactions are largely determined by the body size of interacting species, although species foraging habitat and metabolic type are also important predictors. Further, we found that all boreal species will have at least one potential resource in the Arctic region should they redistribute therein. During 2014-2017, 11 boreal species were observed in the Arctic region of the Barents Sea. These incoming species, which are all generalists, change the structural properties of the Arctic food web by increasing connectance and decreasing modularity. In addition, these boreal species are predicted to initiate novel feeding interactions with the Arctic residents, which might amplify their impact on Arctic food web structure affecting ecosystem functioning and vulnerability. Under the ongoing species redistribution caused by environmental change, we propose merging a trait-based approach with ecological network analysis to efficiently predict the impacts of range-shifting species on food webs.

A multidimensional framework for measuring biotic novelty: How novel is a community?

Anthropogenic changes in climate, land use, and disturbance regimes, as well as introductions of non-native species can lead to the transformation of many ecosystems. The resulting novel ecosystems are usually characterized by species assemblages that have not occurred previously in a given area. Quantifying the ecological novelty of communities (i.e., biotic novelty) would enhance the understanding of environmental change. However, quantification remains challenging since current novelty metrics, such as the number and/or proportion of non-native species in a community, fall short of considering both functional and evolutionary aspects of biotic novelty. Here, we propose the Biotic Novelty Index (BNI), an intuitive and flexible multidimensional measure that combines (a) functional differences between native and non-native introduced species with (b) temporal dynamics of species introductions. We show that the BNI is an additive partition of Rao's quadratic entropy, capturing the novel interaction component of the community's functional diversity. Simulations show that the index varies predictably with the relative amount of functional novelty added by recently arrived species, and they illustrate the need to provide an additional standardized version of the index. We present a detailed R code and two applications of the BNI by (a) measuring changes of biotic novelty of dry grassland plant communities along an urbanization gradient in a metropolitan region and (b) determining the biotic novelty of plant species assemblages at a national scale. The results illustrate the applicability of the index across scales and its flexibility in the use of data of different quality. Both case studies revealed strong connections between biotic novelty and increasing urbanization, a measure of abiotic novelty. We conclude that the BNI framework may help building a basis for better understanding the ecological and evolutionary consequences of global change.

Predators drive community reorganization during experimental range shifts

Increased global temperatures caused by climate change are causing species to shift their ranges and colonize new sites, creating novel assemblages that have historically not interacted. Species interactions play a central role in the response of ecosystems to climate change, but the role of trophic interactions in facilitating or preventing range expansions is largely unknown. The goal of our study was to understand how predators influence the ability of range-shifting prey to successfully establish in newly available habitat following climate warming. We hypothesized that fish predation facilitates the establishment of colonizing zooplankton populations, because fish preferentially consume larger species that would otherwise competitively exclude smaller-bodied colonists. We conducted a mesocosm experiment with zooplankton communities and their fish predators from lakes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in California, USA. We tested the effect of fish predation on the establishment and persistence of a zooplankton community when introduced in the presence of higher- and lower-elevation communities at two experimental temperatures in field mesocosms. We found that predators reduce the abundance of larger-bodied residents from the alpine and facilitate the establishment of new lower-elevation species. In addition, fish predation and warming independently reduced the average body size of zooplankton by up to 30%. This reduction in body size offset the direct effect of warming-induced increases in population growth rates, leading to no net change in zooplankton biomass or trophic cascade strength. We found support for a shift to smaller species with climate change through two mechanisms: (a) the direct effects of warming on developmental rates and (b) size-selective predation that altered the identity of species' that could colonize new higher elevation habitat. Our results suggest that predators can amplify the rate of range shifts by consuming larger-bodied residents and facilitating the establishment of new species. However, the effects of climate warming were dampened by reducing the average body size of community members, leading to no net change in ecosystem function, despite higher growth rates. This work suggests that trophic interactions play a role in the reorganization of regional communities under climate warming.

Divergent trophic responses of sympatric penguin species to historic anthropogenic exploitation and recent climate change

The Southern Ocean is in an era of significant change. Historic overharvesting of marine mammals and recent climatic warming have cascading impacts on resource availability and, in turn, ecosystem structure and function. We examined trophic responses of sympatric chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua) penguins to nearly 100 y of shared environmental change in the Antarctic Peninsula region using compound-specific stable isotope analyses of museum specimens. A century ago, gentoo penguins fed almost exclusively on low-trophic level prey, such as krill, during the peak of historic overexploitation of marine mammals, which was hypothesized to have resulted in a krill surplus. In the last 40 y, gentoo penguin trophic position has increased a full level as krill declined in response to recent climate change, increased competition from recovering marine mammal populations, and the development of a commercial krill fishery. A shifting isotopic baseline supporting gentoo penguins suggests a concurrent increase in coastal productivity over this time. In contrast, chinstrap penguins exhibited no change in trophic position, despite variation in krill availability over the past century. The specialized foraging niche of chinstrap penguins likely renders them more sensitive to changes in krill availability, relative to gentoo penguins, as evinced by their declining population trends in the Antarctic Peninsula over the past 40 y. Over the next century, similarly divergent trophic and population responses are likely to occur among Antarctic krill predators if climate change and other anthropogenic impacts continue to favor generalist over specialist species.

Climate change effects on earthworms - a review

Climate change can have a plethora of effects on organisms above and below the ground in terrestrial ecosystems. Given the tremendous biodiversity in the soil and the many ecosystem functions governed by soil organisms, the drivers of soil biodiversity have received increasing attention. Various climatic factors like temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, as well as extreme climate events like drought and flood have been shown to alter the composition and functioning of communities in the soil. Earthworms are important ecosystem engineers in the soils of temperate and tropical climates and play crucial roles for many ecosystem services, including decomposition, nutrient cycling, and crop yield. Here, we review the published literature on climate change effects on earthworm communities and activity. In general, we find highly species- and ecological group-specific responses to climate change, which are likely to result in altered earthworm community composition in future ecosystems. Earthworm activity, abundance, and biomass tend to increase with increasing temperature at sufficiently high soil water content, while climate extremes like drought and flooding have deleterious effects. Changing climate conditions may facilitate the invasion of earthworms at higher latitudes and altitudes, while dryer and warmer conditions may limit earthworm performance in other regions of the world. The present summary of available information provides a first baseline for predictions of future earthworm distribution. It also reveals the shortage of studies on interacting effects of multiple global change effects on earthworms, such as potential context-dependent effects of climate change at different soil pollution levels and across ecosystem types.

Altered trophic interactions in warming climates: consequences for predator diet breadth and fitness

Species interactions are central in predicting the impairment of biodiversity with climate change. Trophic interactions may be altered through climate-dependent changes in either predator food preferences or prey communities. Yet, climate change impacts on predator diet remain surprisingly poorly understood. We experimentally studied the consequences of 2°C warmer climatic conditions on the trophic niche of a generalist lizard predator. We used a system of semi-natural mesocosms housing a variety of invertebrate species and in which climatic conditions were manipulated. Lizards in warmer climatic conditions ate at a greater predatory to phytophagous invertebrate ratio and had smaller individual dietary breadths. These shifts mainly arose from direct impacts of climate on lizard diets rather than from changes in prey communities. Dietary changes were associated with negative changes in fitness-related traits (body condition, gut microbiota) and survival. We demonstrate that climate change alters trophic interactions through top-predator dietary shifts, which might disrupt eco-evolutionary dynamics.

Reduced body sizes in climate-impacted Borneo moth assemblages are primarily explained by range shifts

Both community composition changes due to species redistribution and within-species size shifts may alter body-size structures under climate warming. Here we assess the relative contribution of these processes in community-level body-size changes in tropical moth assemblages that moved uphill during a period of warming. Based on resurvey data for seven assemblages of geometrid moths (>8000 individuals) on Mt. Kinabalu, Borneo, in 1965 and 2007, we show significant wing-length reduction (mean shrinkage of 1.3% per species). Range shifts explain most size restructuring, due to uphill shifts of relatively small species, especially at high elevations. Overall, mean forewing length shrank by ca. 5%, much of which is accounted for by species range boundary shifts (3.9%), followed by within-boundary distribution changes (0.5%), and within-species size shrinkage (0.6%). We conclude that the effects of range shifting predominate, but considering species physiological responses is also important for understanding community size reorganization under climate warming.

Body size shifts under climate change may arise from species range shifts, intraspecific size shifts, or both. Here the authors show that body size reduction in moth assemblages on Mt. Kinabalu, Borneo, over 42 years are driven more by species range shifts than by within-species shrinkage.