Spring predictability explains different leaf-out strategies in the woody floras of North America, Europe and East Asia

High preseason temperature variability drives convergence of xylem phenology in the Northern Hemisphere conifers

Wood growth is key to understanding the feedback of forest ecosystems to the ongoing climate warming. An increase in spatial synchrony (i.e., coincident changes in distant populations) of spring phenology is one of the most prominent climate responses of forest trees. However, whether temperature variability contributes to an increase in the spatial synchrony of spring phenology and its underlying mechanisms remains largely unknown. Here, we analyzed an extensive dataset of xylem phenology observations of 20 conifer species from 75 sites over the Northern Hemisphere. Along the gradient of increase in temperature variability in the 75 sites, we observed a convergence in the onset of cell enlargement roughly toward the 5th of June, with a convergence in the onset of cell wall thickening toward the summer solstice. The increase in rainfall since the 5th of June is favorable for cell division and expansion, and as the most hours of sunlight are received around the summer solstice, it allows the optimization of carbon assimilation for cell wall thickening. Hence, the convergences can be considered as the result of matching xylem phenological activities to favorable conditions in regions with high temperature variability. Yet, forest trees relying on such consistent seasonal cues for xylem growth could constrain their ability to respond to climate warming, with consequences for the potential growing season length and, ultimately, forest productivity and survival in the future.

Weak evidence of provenance effects in spring phenology across Europe and North America

Forecasting the biological impacts of climate change requires understanding how species respond to warmer temperatures through interannual flexible variation vs through adaptation to local conditions. Yet, we often lack this information entirely or find conflicting evidence across studies, which is the case for spring phenology. We synthesized common garden studies across Europe and North America that reported spring event dates for a mix of angiosperm and gymnosperm tree species in the northern hemisphere, capturing data from 384 North American and 101 European provenances (i.e. populations) with observations from 1962 to 2019, alongside autumn event data when provided. Across continents, we found no evidence of provenance effects in spring phenology, but strong clines with latitude and mean annual temperature in autumn. These effects, however, appeared to diverge by continent and species type (gymnosperm vs angiosperm), with particularly pronounced clines in North America in autumn events. Our results suggest flexible, likely plastic responses, in spring phenology with warming, and potential limits - at least in the short term - due to provenance effects for autumn phenology. They also highlight that, after over 250 yr of common garden studies on tree phenology, we still lack a holistic predictive model of clines across species and phenological events.

Detection and attribution of the start of the growing season changes in the Northern Hemisphere

Global climate change has led to significant changes in land surface phenology. At present, research on the factors influencing the start of the growing season (SOS) mainly focuses on single factor effects, such as temperature and precipitation, ignoring the combined action of multiple factors. The impact of multiple factors on the spatial and temporal patterns of the SOS in the Northern Hemisphere is not clear, and it is necessary to combine multiple factors to quantify the degrees of influence of different factors on the SOS. Based on the GIMMS3g NDVI dataset, CRU climate data and other factor data, we used geographic detector model, random forest regression model, multiple linear regression, partial correlation analysis and Sen + Mann-Kendall trend analysis to explore the variation of the SOS in the Northern Hemisphere to reveal the main driving factors and impact threshold of 17 influencing factors on the SOS. The results showed that (1) during the past 34 years (1982-2015), the SOS in Europe and Asia mainly showed an advancing trend, whereas the SOS in North America mainly showed a delaying trend. (2) The SOS was mainly controlled by frost frequency, temperature and humidity. Increasing frost frequency inhibited the advancement of the SOS, and increasing temperature and humidity promoted the advancement of the SOS. (3) There were thresholds for the influences of the driving factors on the SOS. Outside the threshold ranges, the response mechanism of the SOS to driving factors changed. The results are important for understanding the response of the SOS to global climate change.

Quantifying effects of cold acclimation and delayed springtime photosynthesis resumption in northern ecosystems

Land carbon dynamics in temperate and boreal ecosystems are sensitive to environmental change. Accurately simulating gross primary productivity (GPP) and its seasonality is key for reliable carbon cycle projections. However, significant biases have been found in early spring GPP simulations of northern forests, where observations often suggest a later resumption of photosynthetic activity than predicted by models. Here, we used eddy covariance-based GPP estimates from 39 forest sites that differ by their climate and dominant plant functional types. We used a mechanistic and an empirical light use efficiency (LUE) model to investigate the magnitude and environmental controls of delayed springtime photosynthesis resumption (DSPR) across sites. We found DSPR reduced ecosystem LUE by 30-70% at many, but not all site-years during spring. A significant depression of LUE was found not only in coniferous but also at deciduous forests and was related to combined high radiation and low minimum temperatures. By embedding cold-acclimation effects on LUE that considers the delayed effects of minimum temperatures, initial model bias in simulated springtime GPP was effectively resolved. This provides an approach to improve GPP estimates by considering physiological acclimation and enables more reliable simulations of photosynthesis in northern forests and projections in a warming climate.

Responsiveness to long days for flowering is reduced in Arabidopsis by yearly variation in growing season temperatures

Conservative flowering behaviours, such as flowering during long days in summer or late flowering at a high leaf number, are often proposed to protect against variable winter and spring temperatures which lead to frost damage if premature flowering occurs. Yet, due the many factors in natural environments relative to the number of individuals compared, assessing which climate characteristics drive these flowering traits has been difficult. We applied a multidisciplinary approach to 10 winter-annual Arabidopsis thaliana populations from a wide climactic gradient in Norway. We used a variable reduction strategy to assess which of 100 climate descriptors from their home sites correlated most to their flowering behaviours when tested for responsiveness to photoperiod after saturation of vernalization; then, assessed sequence variation of 19 known environmental-response flowering genes. Photoperiod responsiveness inversely correlated with interannual variation in timing of growing season onset. Time to flowering appeared driven by growing season length, curtailed by cold fall temperatures. The distribution of FLM, TFL2 and HOS1 haplotypes, genes involved in ambient temperature response, correlated with growing-season climate. We show that long-day responsiveness and late flowering may be driven not by risk of spring frosts, but by growing season temperature and length, perhaps to opportunistically maximize growth.

Phenological variations in relation to climatic variables of moist temperate forest tree species of western Himalaya, India

Phenology, an important ecological attribute, deals with the development of vegetative and reproductive parts of trees called "phenophases", which are important determinants of primary productivity and sensitive to climate change. The present study recorded various phenophases of major tree species (i.e., Quercus leucotrichophora, Rhododendron arboreum, and Myrica esculenta) as per the two-digit numerical system of Biologische Bundesanstalt, Bundessortenamt, Chemische Industrie (BBCH) scale. A total of 72 individual trees, twenty-four from each species, distributed between 1400 and 1980 m. a.s.l elevations were tagged and measured fortnightly for two consecutive years (2019-2021) in the moist temperate forest of Western Himalaya and compared with earlier existing records. Various phenophases were correlated with climatic factors along with duration and thermal time for each phenological growth stage. We found 24 growth stages for Q. leucotrichophora and M. esculenta and 28 for R. arboreum distributed across seven principal growth stages (e.g. bud development, 0; leaf development, 1; shoot development, 3; inflorescence development, 5; flower development, 6; fruit development, 7; and fruit maturation, 8) of trees as per BBCH scale. Maximum growing degree was 748.87 and 627.95 days recorded for R. arboreum and M. esculenta during leaf development, and 796.17 days for Q. leucotrichophora during fruit development. Flower emergence was observed pre, during, and post-emergence of new leaves for R. arboreum, M. esculenta, and Q. leucotrichophora, respectively, which varied at spatial scale with previous findings. Longevity of fruit development to ripening took 17, 4, and 2 months, respectively in Q. leucotrichophora, R. arboreum and M. esculenta. Duration of leaf initiation and flowering was positively correlated with climatic variables, whereas, the reverse was observed for fruiting in the studied tree species. The study concludes that the variations in phenophases of the three species were strongly influenced by climatic variations, especially minimum temperature. The result of the present study would be important in enabling us to formulate efficient forest management strategies by understanding the short-term adaptation of the climate-sensitive important tree species in the western Himalaya.

Autumn phenology of tree species in China is associated more with climate than with spring phenology and phylogeny

Both biotic and abiotic factors restrict changes in autumn phenology, yet their effects remain ambiguous, which hinders the accurate prediction of phenology under future climate change. In this study, based on the phenological records of 135 tree species at ten sites in China during 1979-2018, we first investigated the effects of climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, insolation and wind speed) and spring phenology on interannual changes in leaf coloring date (LCD) with the partial correlation analysis, and assessed the relative importance of phylogeny and native climate to LCD differences among species by using multivariate regression and phylogenetic eigenvector regression approach. The results showed that the effects of climate factors on interannual changes in LCD were more significant than spring phenology. In general, temperature played a more important role in cold regions (e.g. the northeast region), while the control of insolation on LCD was stronger in the warmer and wetter regions (e.g. the north, east and southwest regions). In addition, the effects of precipitation and wind speed were more evident in arid regions (e.g. the northwest region). We also found considerable effects of both native climate and phylogeny on the LCD differences among species, despite the contribution of native climate being almost 2~5 times greater than that of the phylogeny. Our findings confirmed and quantified the combined effects of climate, spring phenology and phylogeny on the autumn phenology of plants, which could help better understand the driving factors and influencing mechanism of plant phenology and provide a reference for the calibration and optimization of phenological models.

Wildflower phenological escape differs by continent and spring temperature

Temperate understory plant species are at risk from climate change and anthropogenic threats that include increased deer herbivory, habitat loss, pollinator declines and mismatch, and nutrient pollution. Recent work suggests that spring ephemeral wildflowers may be at additional risk due to phenological mismatch with deciduous canopy trees. The study of this dynamic, commonly referred to as "phenological escape", and its sensitivity to spring temperature is limited to eastern North America. Here, we use herbarium specimens to show that phenological sensitivity to spring temperature is remarkably conserved for understory wildflowers across North America, Europe, and Asia, but that canopy trees in North America are significantly more sensitive to spring temperature compared to in Asia and Europe. We predict that advancing tree phenology will lead to decreasing spring light windows in North America while spring light windows will be maintained or even increase in Asia and Europe in response to projected climate warming.

The phenomenon of red and yellow autumn leaves: Hypotheses, agreements and disagreements

Yellow and red autumn leaves are typical of many temperate/boreal woody plants. Since the 19^th century, it has been either considered the non-functional outcome of chlorophyll degradation that unmasks the pre-existing yellow and red pigments or that the de novo synthesis of red anthocyanins in autumn leaves indicated that it should have a physiological function, although it was commonly ignored. Defending free amino acids and various other resources released especially following the breakdown of the photosynthetic system, and mobilizing them for storage in other organs before leaf fall, is the cornerstone of both the physiological and anti-herbivory hypotheses about the functions of yellow and red autumn leaf colouration. The complicated phenomenon of conspicuous autumn leaf colouration has received significant attention since the year 2000, especially because ecologists started paying attention to its anti-herbivory potential. The obvious imperfection of the hypotheses put forth in several papers stimulated many other scientists. Hot debates among physiologists, among ecologists, and between physiologists and ecologists have been common since the year 2000, first because the various functions of yellow and red autumn leaf colouration are non-exclusive, and second because many scientists were trained to focus on a single subject. Here, I will review the debates, especially between the photoprotective and the anti-herbivory hypotheses, and describe both the progress in their understanding and the required progress.

Climate warming-driven phenological shifts are species-specific in woody plants: evidence from twig experiment in Kashmir Himalaya

Experimental evidences in support of climate warming-driven phenological shifts are still scarce, particularly from the developing world. Here, we investigated the effect of experimental warming on flowering phenology of selected woody plants in Kashmir Himalaya. We selected the twigs of four congeneric pairs of temperate woody species (Prunus, Populus, Ulmus, Viburnum)-typical spring-flowering plants in the region. Using randomised block design, we monitored these winter dormant twigs in controlled growth chambers to study the effect of different temperature regimes (9, 17, 20 and 23 °C) and species identity on the patterns of phenological shifts. We observed a significant phenological shift in all the species showing preponement in the first flower out and senescence phases ranging from 0.56 to 3.0 and 0.77 to 4.04 days per degree increase in temperature, respectively. The duration of flowering phase in all the species showed a corresponding decrease along the gradient of increasing temperature, which was more driven by preponement of the flower senescence than the start of flowering. The patterns of phenological shifts were highly species-specific, and the magnitude of these shifts significantly varied in all the four pairs of congeneric species despite their phylogenetic similarity. Our study provides experimental support to the previous long-term observation and herbarium-based studies showing that the patterns of phenological shifts in response to global climate warming are likely to vary between species, even those belonging to same evolutionary stock. Our findings highlight that a one-size-fits-all strategy to manage the likely impacts of climate warming-induced phenological shifts will seldom succeed, and should instead be designed for the specific phenological responses of species and regions.

Carbon Source Reduction Postpones Autumn Leaf Senescence in a Widespread Deciduous Tree

The growing-season length of temperate and boreal trees has a strong effect on the global carbon cycle. Yet, a poor understanding of the drivers of phenological processes, such as autumn leaf senescence in deciduous trees, limits our capacity to estimate growing-season lengths under climate change. While temperature has been shown to be an important driver of autumn leaf senescence, carbon source-sink dynamics have been proposed as a mechanism that could help explain variation of this important process. According to the carbon sink limitation hypothesis, senescence is regulated by the interplay between plant carbon source and sink dynamics, so that senescence occurs later upon low carbon inputs (source) and earlier upon low carbon demand (sink). Here, we manipulated carbon source-sink dynamics in birch saplings (Betula pendula) to test the relevance of carbon sink limitation for autumn leaf senescence and photosynthetic decline in a widespread deciduous tree. Specifically, we conducted a gradient of leaf and bud removal treatments and monitored the effects on autumnal declines in net photosynthesis and the timing of leaf senescence. In line with the carbon sink limitation hypothesis, we observed that leaf removal tended to increase total leaf-level autumn photosynthesis and delayed the timing of senescence. Conversely, we did not observe an effect of bud removal on either photosynthesis or senescence, which was likely caused by the fact that our bud removal treatment did not considerably affect the plant carbon sink. While we cannot fully rule out that the observed effect of leaf removal was influenced by possible treatment-level differences in leaf age or soil resource availability, our results provide support for the hypothesis of carbon sink limitation as a driver of growing-season length and move the scientific field closer to narrowing the uncertainty in climate change predictions.

Fast but steady: An integrated leaf-stem-root trait syndrome for woody forest invaders

Successful control and prevention of biological invasions depend on identifying traits of non-native species that promote fitness advantages in competition with native species. Here, we show that, among 76 native and non-native woody plants of deciduous forests of North America, invaders express a unique functional syndrome that combines high metabolic rate with robust leaves of longer lifespan and a greater duration of annual carbon gain, behaviours enabled by seasonally plastic xylem structure and rapid production of thin roots. This trait combination was absent in all native species examined and suggests the success of forest invaders is driven by a novel resource-use strategy. Furthermore, two traits alone-annual leaf duration and nuclear DNA content-separated native and invasive species with 93% accuracy, supporting the use of functional traits in invader risk assessments. A trait syndrome reflecting both fast growth capacity and understorey persistence may be a key driver of forest invasions.

Substantial shifts in flowering phenology of Sternbergia vernalis in the Himalaya: Supplementing decadal field records with historical and experimental evidences

In an age of anthropocene, shifting plant phenology is one of the most striking biological indicators of global environmental change. Majority of the studies reporting shifts in plant phenology are available from the North America and Europe and largely scarce from the developing world, including the Himalaya; and studies integrating multiple methodological approaches to investigate the climate-driven phenological shifts are too rare. Here, we report the shifts in spring flowering phenology of model plant species, Sternbergia vernalis in response to the changing climate in Kashmir Himalaya, by integrating decadal field observational records with long-term herbarium and dated-photograph data, and supported with experimental evidences. Our results revealed a significant increasing trend of 0.038, 0.016 and 0.023 °C/year in the annual mean maximum temperature (T_max), mean minimum temperature (T_min) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) respectively; but an insignificant decreasing trend in annual precipitation of -1.24 mm/year over the last four decades (1980-2019) in this Himalayan region. The flowering phenology of S. vernalis has significantly advanced by 11.8 days/°C and 27.8 days/°C increase in T_max and T_min respectively, indicating that the climate warming has led to substantial shifts in flowering phenology of the model plant species. We also observed a strong association of seasonal T_max (December-February) and DTR on the early onset of spring flowering, however precipitation had no significant effect on the timing of flowering. The greenhouse experiment results further supported a significant effect of temperature in triggering the phenological shifts, wherein the model plant grown under different temperature treatments flowered 9-20 days earlier compared to the control. Our study showcases the integrated use of multiple methodological approaches for unravelling the long-term phenological shifts in response to climate change, and contributes in filling the knowledge gaps in the phenological research from the developing world in general and the Himalaya in particular.

Macrophenology: insights into the broad-scale patterns, drivers, and consequences of phenology

Plant phenology research has surged in recent decades, in part due to interest in phenological sensitivity to climate change and the vital role phenology plays in ecology. Many local-scale studies have generated important findings regarding the physiology, responses, and risks associated with shifts in plant phenology. By comparison, our understanding of regional- and global-scale phenology has been largely limited to remote sensing of green-up without the ability to differentiate among plant species. However, a new generation of analytical tools and data sources-including enhanced remote sensing products, digitized herbarium specimen data, and public participation in science-now permits investigating patterns and drivers of phenology across extensive taxonomic, temporal, and spatial scales, in an emerging field that we call macrophenology. Recent studies have highlighted how phenology affects dynamics at broad scales, including species interactions and ranges, carbon fluxes, and climate. At the cusp of this developing field of study, we review the theoretical and practical advances in four primary areas of plant macrophenology: (1) global patterns and shifts in plant phenology, (2) within-species changes in phenology as they mediate species' range limits and invasions at the regional scale, (3) broad-scale variation in phenology among species leading to ecological mismatches, and (4) interactions between phenology and global ecosystem processes. To stimulate future research, we describe opportunities for macrophenology to address grand challenges in each of these research areas, as well as recently available data sources that enhance and enable macrophenology research.

Climate warming increases spring phenological differences among temperate trees

Climate warming has substantially advanced spring leaf flushing, but winter chilling and photoperiod co-determine the leaf flushing process in ways that vary among species. As a result, the interspecific differences in spring phenology (IDSP) are expected to change with climate warming, which may, in turn, induce negative or positive ecological consequences. However, the temporal change of IDSP at large spatiotemporal scales remains unclear. In this study, we analyzed long-term in-situ observations (1951-2016) of six, coexisting temperate tree species from 305 sites across Central Europe and found that phenological ranking did not change when comparing the rapidly warming period 1984-2016 to the marginally warming period 1951-1983. However, the advance of leaf flushing was significantly larger in early-flushing species EFS (6.7 ± 0.3 days) than in late-flushing species LFS (5.9 ± 0.2 days) between the two periods, indicating extended IDSP. This IDSP extension could not be explained by differences in temperature sensitivity between EFS and LFS; however, climatic warming-induced heat accumulation effects on leaf flushing, which were linked to a greater heat requirement and higher photoperiod sensitivity in LFS, drove the shifts in IDSP. Continued climate warming is expected to further extend IDSP across temperate trees, with associated implications for ecosystem function.

Interactive climate factors restrict future increases in spring productivity of temperate and boreal trees

Climate warming is currently advancing spring leaf-out of temperate and boreal trees, enhancing net primary productivity (NPP) of forests. However, it remains unclear whether this trend will continue, preventing for accurate projections of ecosystem functioning and climate feedbacks. Several ecophysiological mechanisms have been proposed to regulate the timing of leaf emergence in response to changing environmental cues, but the relative importance of those mechanisms remains unclear. Here, we use 727,401 direct phenological observations of common European forest trees to examine the dominant controls on leaf-out. Using the emerging mechanisms, we forecast future trajectories of spring arrival and evaluate the consequences for forest carbon dynamics. By representing hypothesized relationships with autumn temperature, winter chilling, and the timing of spring onset, we accurately predicted reductions in the advance of leaf-out. There was a strong consensus between our empirical model and existing process-based models, revealing that the advance in leaf-out will not exceed 2 weeks over the rest of the century. We further estimate that, under a 'business-as-usual' climate scenario, earlier spring arrival will enhance NPP of temperate and boreal forests by ~0.2 Gt per year at the end of the century. In contrast, previous estimates based on a simple degree-day model range around 0.8 Gt. As such, the expected NPP is drastically reduced in our updated model relative to previous estimates-by a total of ~25 Gt over the rest of the century. These findings reveal important environmental constraints on the productivity of broad-leaved deciduous trees and highlight that shifting spring phenology is unlikely to slow the rate of warming by offsetting anthropogenic carbon emissions.

Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia

Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy.

Environmental variability, reliability of information and the timing of migration

The timing of migration and migratory steps is highly relevant for fitness. Because environmental conditions vary between years, the optimal time for migration varies accordingly. Therefore, migratory animals could clearly benefit from acquiring information as to when it is the best time to migrate in a specific year. Thus, environmental predictability and variability are fundamental characteristics of migration systems but their relationship and consequence for migratory progression has remained unexplored. We develop a simple dynamic model to identify the optimal migration behaviour in environments that differ in predictability, variability and the number of intermediate stop-over sites. Our results indicate that higher predictability along migration routes enables organisms to better time migration when phenology deviates from its long-term average and thus, increases fitness. Information is particularly valuable in highly variable environments and in the final migration-step, i.e. before the destination. Furthermore, we show that a general strategy for obtaining information in relatively uninformative but variable environments is using intermediate stop-over sites that enable migrants to better predict conditions ahead. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the relationship between animal movement and environmental predictability-an important, yet underappreciated factor that strongly influences migratory progression.

Phenological responses of temperate and boreal trees to warming depend on ambient spring temperatures, leaf habit, and geographic range

Changes in plant phenology associated with climate change have been observed globally. What is poorly known is whether and how phenological responses to climate warming will differ from year to year, season to season, habitat to habitat, or species to species. Here, we present 5 y of phenological responses to experimental warming for 10 subboreal tree species. Research took place in the open-air B4WarmED experiment in Minnesota. The design is a two habitat (understory and open) × three warming treatments (ambient, +1.7 °C, +3.4 °C) factorial at two sites. Phenology was measured twice weekly during the growing seasons of 2009 through 2013. We found significant interannual variation in the effect of warming and differences among species in response to warming that relate to geographic origin and plant functional group. Moreover, responses to experimental temperature variation were similar to responses to natural temperature variation. Warming advanced the date of budburst more in early compared to late springs, suggesting that to simulate interannual variability in climate sensitivity of phenology, models should employ process-based or continuous development approaches. Differences among species in timing of budburst were also greater in early compared to late springs. Our results suggest that climate change-which will make most springs relatively "early"-could lead to a future with more variable phenology among years and among species, with consequences including greater risk of inappropriately early leafing and altered interactions among species.

The occurrence of red and yellow autumn leaves explained by regional differences in insolation and temperature

Red or yellow autumn leaves have long fascinated biologists, but their geographical concentration in trees in Eastern North America (ENA) has defied evolutionary explanations. In this review, anthocyanins and xanthophylls are discussed in relation to their occurrence in different regions of the Northern Hemisphere, phylogenetic distribution and photoprotective function during the breakdown of chlorophylls. Pigments in senescing leaves that intercept incident light and dissipate the absorbed energy extend the time available for nutrient resorption. Experiments with Arabidopsis have revealed greatest anthocyanin photoprotective function at low temperatures and high light intensities, and high-resolution solar irradiation maps reveal that ENA and Asia receive higher irradiation than does Europe. In addition, ENA experiences higher temperature fluctuations in autumn, resulting in cold snaps during leaf senescence. Under common garden conditions, chlorophyll degradation occurs earlier in ENA species than in their European and East Asian relatives. In combination, strong solar irradiation, temperature fluctuations and, on average, 3-wk shorter vegetation periods of ENA species favour investment in pigments to extend the time for nutrient resorption before abscission, explaining the higher frequency of coloured species in ENA compared to Europe. We end by outlining research that could test this new explanation of bright New England autumns.

Examining the support-supply and bud-packing hypotheses for the increase in toothed leaf margins in northern deciduous floras

PREMISE

The proportion of woody dicots with toothed leaves increases toward colder regions, a relationship used to reconstruct past mean annual temperatures. Recent hypotheses explaining this relationship are that (1) leaves in colder regions are thinner, requiring thick veins for support and water supply, with the resulting craspedodromous venation leading to marginal teeth (support-supply hypothesis) or that (2) teeth are associated with the packing of leaf primordia in winter buds (bud-packing hypothesis).

METHODS

We addressed these hypotheses by examining leaf thickness, number of primordia in buds, growing season length (mean annual temperature, MAT), and other traits in 151 deciduous woody species using georeferenced occurrences and a Bayesian model controlling for phylogeny. We excluded evergreen species because longer leaf life spans correlate with higher leaf mass per area, precluding the detection of independent effects of leaf thickness on leaf-margin type.

RESULTS

The best model predicted toothed leaves with 94% accuracy, with growing season length the strongest predictor. Neither leaf thickness nor number of leaves preformed in buds significantly influenced margin type, rejecting the support-supply and bud-packing hypotheses.

CONCLUSIONS

A direct selective benefit of leaf teeth via a carbon gain early in the spring as proposed by Royer and Wilf (2006) would match the strong correlation between toothed species occurrence and short growing season found here using Bayesian hierarchical models. Efforts should be directed to physiological work quantifying seasonal photosynthate production in toothed and nontoothed leaves.

Functional shifts in leaves of woody invaders of deciduous forests between their home and away ranges

Temperate forests are widely invaded by shade-tolerant shrubs and trees, including those of Eastern North America (ENA). However, it remains unknown whether these invaders are 'preadapted' for success in their new ranges due to unique aspects of their evolutionary history or whether selection due to enemy release or other postintroduction processes have driven rapid evolution in the invaded range. We sampled leaf traits of populations of woody understory invaders across light gradients in their native range in Japan and in their invaded ENA range to examine potential phenotypic shifts related to carbon gain and nitrogen use between ranges. We also measured leaf traits in three co-occurring ENA native shrub species. In their invaded range, invaders invested significantly less in leaf chlorophyll content (both per unit leaf mass and area) compared with native range populations of the same species, yet maintained similar rates of photosynthesis in low light. In addition, compared with ENA natives, ENA invaders displayed greater trait variation in response to increasing light availability (forest edges, gaps), giving them a potential advantage over ENA natives in a variety of light conditions. We conclude that, for this group of species, newly evolved phenotypes in the invaded range are more important than preadaptation for their success as shade-tolerant forest invaders.

Differences in flowering time maintain species boundaries in a continental radiation of Viburnum

PREMISE

We take an integrative approach in assessing how introgression and Pleistocene climate fluctuations have shaped the diversification of the core Lentago clade of Viburnum, a group of five interfertile species with broad areas of sympatry. We specifically tested whether flowering time plays a role in maintaining species isolation.

METHODS

RAD-seq data for 103 individuals were used to infer the species relationships and the genetic structure within each species. Flowering times were compared among species on the basis of historical flowering dates documented by herbarium specimens.

RESULTS

Within each species, we found a strong relationship between flowering date and latitude, such that southern populations flower earlier than northern ones. In areas of sympatry, the species flower in sequence rather than simultaneously, with flowering dates offset by ≥9 d for all species pairs. In two cases it appears that the offset in flowering times is an incidental consequence of adaptation to differing climates, but in the recently diverged sister species V. prunifolium and V. rufidulum, we find evidence that reinforcement led to reproductive character displacement. Long-term trends suggest that the two northern-most species are flowering earlier in response to recent climate change.

CONCLUSIONS

We argue that speciation in the Lentago clade has primarily occurred through ecological divergence of allopatric populations, but differences in flowering time were essential to maintain separation of incipient species when they came into secondary contact. This combination of factors may underlie diversification in many other plant clades.

Herbarium specimens reveal substantial and unexpected variation in phenological sensitivity across the eastern United States

Phenology is a key biological trait that can determine an organism's survival and provides one of the clearest indicators of the effects of recent climatic change. Long time-series observations of plant phenology collected at continental scales could clarify latitudinal and regional patterns of plant responses and illuminate drivers of that variation, but few such datasets exist. Here, we use the web tool CrowdCurio to crowdsource phenological data from over 7000 herbarium specimens representing 30 diverse flowering plant species distributed across the eastern United States. Our results, spanning 120 years and generated from over 2000 crowdsourcers, illustrate numerous aspects of continental-scale plant reproductive phenology. First, they support prior studies that found plant reproductive phenology significantly advances in response to warming, especially for early-flowering species. Second, they reveal that fruiting in populations from warmer, lower latitudes is significantly more phenologically sensitive to temperature than that for populations from colder, higher-latitude regions. Last, we found that variation in phenological sensitivities to climate within species between regions was of similar magnitude to variation between species. Overall, our results suggest that phenological responses to anthropogenic climate change will be heterogeneous within communities and across regions, with large amounts of regional variability driven by local adaptation, phenotypic plasticity and differences in species assemblages. As millions of imaged herbarium specimens become available online, they will play an increasingly critical role in revealing large-scale patterns within assemblages and across continents that ultimately can improve forecasts of the impacts of climatic change on the structure and function of ecosystems.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene'.

Global warming reduces leaf-out and flowering synchrony among individuals

The temporal overlap of phenological stages, phenological synchrony, crucially influences ecosystem functioning. For flowering, among-individual synchrony influences gene flow. For leaf-out, it affects interactions with herbivores and competing plants. If individuals differ in their reaction to the ongoing change in global climate, this should affect population-level synchrony. Here, we use climate-manipulation experiments, Pan-European long-term (>15 years) observations, and common garden monitoring data on up to 72 woody and herbaceous species to study the effects of increasing temperatures on the extent of leaf-out and flowering synchrony within populations. Warmer temperatures reduce in situ leaf-out and flowering synchrony by up to 55%, and experiments on European beech provide a mechanism for how individual differences in day-length and/or chilling sensitivity may explain this finding. The rapid loss of reproductive and vegetative synchrony in European plants predicts changes in their gene flow and trophic interactions, but community-wide consequences remain largely unknown.

Editorial note

This article has been through an editorial process in which the authors decide how to respond to the issues raised during peer review. The Reviewing Editor's assessment is that all the issues have been addressed (see decision letter).

Climate Change and Phenological Mismatch in Trophic Interactions Among Plants, Insects, and Vertebrates

Phenological mismatch results when interacting species change the timing of regularly repeated phases in their life cycles at different rates. We review whether this continuously ongoing phenomenon, also known as trophic asynchrony, is becoming more common under ongoing rapid climate change. In antagonistic trophic interactions, any mismatch will have negative impacts for only one of the species, whereas in mutualistic interactions, both partners are expected to suffer. Trophic mismatch is therefore expected to last for evolutionarily short periods, perhaps only a few seasons, adding to the difficulty of attributing it to climate change, which requires long-term data. So far, the prediction that diverging phenologies linked to climate change will cause mismatch is most clearly met in antagonistic interactions at high latitudes in the Artic. There is limited evidence of phenological mismatch in mutualistic interactions, possibly because of strong selection on mutualists to have co-adapted phenological strategies. The study of individual plasticity, population variation, and the genetic bases for phenological strategies is in its infancy. Recent work on woody plants revealed the large imprint of historic climate change on temperature, chilling, and day-length thresholds used by different species to synchronize their phenophases, which in the Northern Hemisphere has led to biogeographic phenological regions in which long-lived plants have adapted to particular interannual and intermillennial amplitudes of climate change.

Temperature and photoperiod drive spring phenology across all species in a temperate forest community

Accurate predictions of spring plant phenology with climate change are critical for projections of growing seasons, plant communities and a number of ecosystem services, including carbon storage. Progress towards prediction, however, has been slow because the major cues known to drive phenology - temperature (including winter chilling and spring forcing) and photoperiod - generally covary in nature and may interact, making accurate predictions of plant responses to climate change complex and nonlinear. Alternatively, recent work suggests many species may be dominated by one cue, which would make predictions much simpler. Here, we manipulated all three cues across 28 woody species from two North American forests. All species responded to all cues examined. Chilling exerted a strong effect, especially on budburst (-15.8 d), with responses to forcing and photoperiod greatest for leafout (-19.1 and -11.2 d, respectively). Interactions between chilling and forcing suggest that each cue may compensate somewhat for the other. Cues varied across species, leading to staggered leafout within each community and supporting the idea that phenology is a critical aspect of species' temporal niches. Our results suggest that predicting the spring phenology of communities will be difficult, as all species we studied could have complex, nonlinear responses to future warming.

To spend or to save? Assessing energetic growth-storage tradeoffs in native and invasive woody plants

Many non-native woody plants invade low-light forest understories but differ from native species in leaf phenology and seasonality of photosynthesis. It is unknown whether such differences in assimilation patterns are due to contrasting strategies of energy allocation. In a group of native and invasive species in Eastern North America, we hypothesized that invaders employ a grow-first strategy, prioritizing allocation to new structural biomass over carbon storage compared to native congeners. We also hypothesized that species producing a single spring leaf flush exhibit a more conservative carbon storage strategy than species with continuous leaf production. We measured sugar and starch concentrations (non-structural carbohydrates; NSCs) in spring and fall in the stems and roots of 39 species of native and non-native shrubs in a common garden, and compared these to patterns of leaf production across species. Native species had higher soluble sugar concentrations than invaders, but invaders tended to store more root starch in spring. We found no difference in leaf production between natives and invaders. Determinate species had more soluble sugars than indeterminate species but had lower root starch. We found no relationship between aboveground productivity and carbon storage. Our results suggest that closely related species with contrasting evolutionary histories have different carbon storage strategies, although not necessarily in relation to their growth potential. The higher soluble sugar concentrations of native species may reflect their evolutionary response to historical disturbances, or different interactions with soil microbes, while increased spring root starch in invaders may support fine root or fruit production.