Climate change linked to vampire bat expansion and rabies virus spillover

Bat-borne pathogens are a threat to global health and in recent history have had major impacts on human morbidity and mortality. Examples include diseases such as rabies, Nipah virus encephalitis, and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Climate change may exacerbate the emergence of bat-borne pathogens by affecting the ecology of bats in tropical ecosystems. Here, we report the impacts of climate change on the distributional ecology of the common vampire bat Desmodus rotundus across the last century. Our retrospective analysis revealed a positive relationship between changes in climate and the northern expansion of the distribution of D. rotundus in North America. Furthermore, we also found a reduction in the standard deviation of temperatures at D. rotundus capture locations during the last century, expressed as more consistent, less-seasonal climate in recent years. These results elucidate an association between D. rotundus range expansion and a continental-level rise in rabies virus spill-over transmission from D. rotundus to cattle in the last 50 years of the 120-year study period. This correlative study, based on field observations, offers empirical evidence supporting previous statistical and mathematical simulation-based studies reporting a likely increase of bat-borne diseases in response to climate change. We conclude that the D. rotundus rabies system exemplifies the consequences of climate change augmentation at the wildlife-livestock-human interface, demonstrating how global change acts upon these complex and interconnected systems to drive increased disease emergence.

Weakened connection between spring leaf-out and autumn senescence in the Northern Hemisphere

Vegetation autumn phenology is critical in regulating the ecosystem carbon cycle and regional climate. However, the dominant drivers of autumn senescence and their temporal shifts under climate change remain poorly understood. Here, we conducted a multi-factor analysis considering both direct climatic controls and biological carryover effects from start-of-season (SOS) and seasonal peak vegetation activities on the end-of-season (EOS) to fill these knowledge gaps. Combining satellite and ground observations across the northern hemisphere, we found that carryover effects from early-to-peak vegetation activities exerted greater influence on EOS than the direct climatic controls on nearly half of the vegetated land. Unexpectedly, the carryover effects from SOS on EOS have significantly weakened over recent decades, accompanied by strengthened climatic controls. Such results indicate the weakened constraint of leaf longevity on senescence due to prolonged growing season in response to climate change. These findings underscore the important role of biological carryover effects in regulating vegetation autumn senescence under climate change, which should be incorporated into the formulation and enhancement of phenology modules utilized in land surface models.

Individual and interactive effects of warming and nitrogen supply on CO2 fluxes and carbon allocation in subarctic grassland

Climate warming has been suggested to impact high latitude grasslands severely, potentially causing considerable carbon (C) losses from soil. Warming can also stimulate nitrogen (N) turnover, but it is largely unclear whether and how altered N availability impacts belowground C dynamics. Even less is known about the individual and interactive effects of warming and N availability on the fate of recently photosynthesized C in soil. On a 10-year geothermal warming gradient in Iceland, we studied the effects of soil warming and N addition on CO2 fluxes and the fate of recently photosynthesized C through CO2 flux measurements and a 13 CO2 pulse-labeling experiment. Under warming, ecosystem respiration exceeded maximum gross primary productivity, causing increased net CO2 emissions. N addition treatments revealed that, surprisingly, the plants in the warmed soil were N limited, which constrained primary productivity and decreased recently assimilated C in shoots and roots. In soil, microbes were increasingly C limited under warming and increased microbial uptake of recent C. Soil respiration was increased by warming and was fueled by increased belowground inputs and turnover of recently photosynthesized C. Our findings suggest that a decade of warming seemed to have induced a N limitation in plants and a C limitation by soil microbes. This caused a decrease in net ecosystem CO2 uptake and accelerated the respiratory release of photosynthesized C, which decreased the C sequestration potential of the grassland. Our study highlights the importance of belowground C allocation and C-N interactions in the C dynamics of subarctic ecosystems in a warmer world.

Climate extremes drive the phenology of a dominant species in meadow steppe under gradual warming

Plant phenology in terrestrial ecosystems, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, is expected to change owing to the projected increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes in the context of global warming. Although such changes under mean climate change have been extensively reported in the literature, little is known about the impacts of climate extremes. In this study, climatic changes and their effects on plant phenology were characterized using long-term climatic and phenological data from the start and end of the growing season (SOS and EOS, respectively) from 2005 to 2020 for Stipa baicalensis, a dominant species in a temperate meadow steppe. The results showed that the temperature, including the mean and minimum temperatures, and extreme warm indices significantly increased; however, annual precipitation, and the frequency of extreme cold and precipitation events decreased. The SOS of S. baicalensis was initially earlier and later, whereas the EOS trended to be delayed. However, the growing season (LOS) was slightly prolonged. Compared with the indices under mean temperature, the pre-season (before SOS or EOS) minimum temperature dominantly affected SOS and EOS, whereas the mean and extreme precipitation slightly affected them. Furthermore, the findings showed that plant phenology responded to extreme temperatures quicker and stronger than mean temperatures. This study provides insight into how key extreme climatic factors could affect plant phenophases and improve and refine the phenological model. This could also be useful in enhancing grassland ecosystem management and sustainable development.

Exploring the relative contribution of flood regimes and climatic factors to Carex phenology in a Yangtze River-connected floodplain wetland

Hydrological regimes can combine with climatic factors to affect plant phenology; however, few studies have attempted to quantify their complex influences on plant phenology in floodplain wetlands. We obtained phenological information on Carex vegetation through MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data during 2001-2020, and monthly field investigation during 2011-2020. We then explored how these data were correlated with climatic factors and flood regimes in a Yangtze River-connected floodplain wetland (Dongting Lake, China). Our results showed that warmer temperature tended to advance the start of the pre-flooding growing season (SOS1), with a relative contribution of 76.1 %. Flood rising time strongly contributed to controlling the end of the pre-flooding growing season. Flood recession time and inundation duration were dominant factors determining the start of the post-flooding growing season (SOS2). Earlier flood recession time and shortened inundation duration tended to advance the SOS2. Shortened inundation duration, earlier flood recession time, and lower solar radiation tended to advance the end of the post-flooding growing season. The phenology of Carex distributed at high-elevation areas was more affected by hydrology than that of Carex distributed at low-elevation areas. Thus, climatic factors strongly affect the phenology of Carex during the pre-flooding growing season, whereas flood regimes play a dominant role in determining the phenology in the post-flooding growing season. The different responses of Carex phenology to climatic and flooding factors may provide insights for the conservation and management of floodplain wetlands in Yangtze River because Carex are primary food source and habitat for herbivorous waterfowls.

New directions in tropical phenology

Earth's most speciose biomes are in the tropics, yet tropical plant phenology remains poorly understood. Tropical phenological data are comparatively scarce and viewed through the lens of a 'temperate phenological paradigm' expecting phenological traits to respond to strong, predictably annual shifts in climate (e.g., between subfreezing and frost-free periods). Digitized herbarium data greatly expand existing phenological data for tropical plants; and circular data, statistics, and models are more appropriate for analyzing tropical (and temperate) phenological datasets. Phylogenetic information, which remains seldom applied in phenological investigations, provides new insights into phenological responses of large groups of related species to climate. Consistent combined use of herbarium data, circular statistical distributions, and robust phylogenies will rapidly advance our understanding of tropical - and temperate - phenology.

Uncovering the Research Gaps to Alleviate the Negative Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security: A Review

Climatic variability has been acquiring an extensive consideration due to its widespread ability to impact food production and livelihoods. Climate change has the potential to intersperse global approaches in alleviating hunger and undernutrition. It is hypothesized that climate shifts bring substantial negative impacts on food production systems, thereby intimidating food security. Vast developments have been made addressing the global climate change, undernourishment, and hunger for the last few decades, partly due to the increase in food productivity through augmented agricultural managements. However, the growing population has increased the demand for food, putting pressure on food systems. Moreover, the potential climate change impacts are still unclear more obviously at the regional scales. Climate change is expected to boost food insecurity challenges in areas already vulnerable to climate change. Human-induced climate change is expected to impact food quality, quantity, and potentiality to dispense it equitably. Global capabilities to ascertain the food security and nutritional reasonableness facing expeditious shifts in biophysical conditions are likely to be the main factors determining the level of global disease incidence. It can be apprehended that all food security components (mainly food access and utilization) likely be under indirect effect via pledged impacts on ménage, incomes, and damages to health. The corroboration supports the dire need for huge focused investments in mitigation and adaptation measures to have sustainable, climate-smart, eco-friendly, and climate stress resilient food production systems. In this paper, we discussed the foremost pathways of how climate change impacts our food production systems as well as the social, and economic factors that in the mastery of unbiased food distribution. Likewise, we analyze the research gaps and biases about climate change and food security. Climate change is often responsible for food insecurity issues, not focusing on the fact that food production systems have magnified the climate change process. Provided the critical threats to food security, the focus needs to be shifted to an implementation oriented-agenda to potentially cope with current challenges. Therefore, this review seeks to have a more unprejudiced view and thus interpret the fusion association between climate change and food security by imperatively scrutinizing all factors.

“I see my culture starting to disappear”: Anishinaabe perspectives on the socioecological impacts of climate change and future research needs

Climate change disproportionately affects Indigenous Peoples because of strong connections between environmental, cultural, and spiritual well-being. While much of the global discourse surrounding climate change is founded in Western science, the holistic, place-based knowledge of Indigenous Peoples offers a complementary way of understanding and mitigating climate change impacts. The goal of this research was to elevate Anishinaabe concerns, observations, and perspectives about climate change impacts and future research needs. We organized a workshop called “Connecting Guardians in a Changing World” where participants shared concerns about animal and plant life cycles, water cycles and water quality, and impacts to ways of life, including reduced capacity to perform cultural practices and erosion of their knowledge. Participants highlighted the challenge of prioritizing a single impact of climate change, emphasizing that impacts to the environment and ways of life are interconnected. Participants also expressed the need for research and policy that move beyond interdisciplinarity to include intercultural philosophy and research that better reflects Indigenous worldviews and incorporates Indigenous methodologies. Moving forward, meaningful partnerships and opportunities for knowledge sharing should be prioritized in climate change discourse to ensure solutions are generated together, with all of the tools and knowledge available.

Can flowers affect land surface albedo and soil microclimates?

The phenology of vegetation, namely leaf-out and senescence, can influence the Earth's climate over regional spatial scales and long time periods (e.g., over 30 years or more), in addition to microclimates over local spatial scales and shorter time periods (weeks to months). However, the effects of flowers on climate and microclimate are unknown. We investigate whether flowers can influence light reflected by the land surface and soil microclimate in a subalpine meadow. We conducted a flower removal experiment with a common sunflower species, Helianthella quinquenervis, for 3 years (2015, 2017, and 2019). The flower removal treatment simulates the appearance of the meadow when Helianthella flowers earlier under climate change and loses its flowers to frost (other plant structures are not damaged by frost). We test the hypotheses that a reduction in cover of yellow flowers leads to a greener land surface, lower reflectance, warmer and drier soils, and increased plant water stress. Flower removal plots are greener, reflect less light, exhibit up to 1.2 °C warmer soil temperatures during the warmest daylight hours, and contain ca. 1% less soil moisture compared to controls. However, soils were warmer in only 2 of the 3 years, when flower abundance was high. Helianthella water use efficiency did not differ between removal and control plots. Our study provides evidence for a previously undocumented effect of flowers on soil microclimate, an effect that is likely mediated by climate change and flowering phenology. Many anthropogenic environmental changes alter landscape albedo, all of which could be mediated by flowers: climate change, plant invasions, and agriculture. This study highlights how further consideration of the effects of flowers on land surface albedo could improve our understanding of the effects of vegetation on microclimate.

Impacts of climate change on vegetation phenology and net primary productivity in arid Central Asia

Vegetation is highly sensitive to climate changes in arid regions. The relationship between vegetation and climate changes can be effectively characterized by vegetation phenology. However, few studies have examined the vegetation phenology and productivity changes in arid Central Asia (ACA). The vegetation phenological information of ACA was extracted using MODIS NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data, and the dynamics of vegetation phenological changes under spatiotemporal variations were quantitatively assessed. Moreover, the impacts of climate change on vegetation phenology and net primary productivity were analyzed by combining meteorological data with that of MODIS NPP (Net Primary Productivity) during the same period. The results demonstrated that the start of the season (SOS) of vegetation in the study was concentrated from mid-February to mid-April, while the end of the season (EOS) was concentrated from early October to mid-December. The length of growing season (LOS) ranged from 6 to 10 months. The SOS of vegetation was gradually postponed at a rate of 0.16 d·year^-1. The EOS advanced at a rate of 0.69 d·year^-1. The LOS was gradually shortened at a rate of 0.89 d·year^-1. For each per 1000 m increase in elevation, the SOS of vegetation was postponed by 12.40 d; the EOS advanced by 0.40 d, and the LOS was shortened by 11.70 d. For the impacts of climate changes on vegetation phenology and NPP, the SOS of vegetation phenology negatively correlated with temperature but positively correlated with precipitation and NPP. The EOS and LOS positively correlated with temperature but negatively with precipitation and NPP. Results indicated that the SOS was not moved ahead but was delayed, while the EOS advanced rather than being postponed under climate change. These results can offer new insights on the phenological response to climate change in arid regions and on non-systematic changes in phenology under global warming.

Climate drivers of adult insect activity are conditioned by life history traits

Insect phenological lability is key for determining which species will adapt under environmental change. However, little is known about when adult insect activity terminates and overall activity duration. We used community-science and museum specimen data to investigate the effects of climate and urbanisation on timing of adult insect activity for 101 species varying in life history traits. We found detritivores and species with aquatic larval stages extend activity periods most rapidly in response to increasing regional temperature. Conversely, species with subterranean larval stages have relatively constant durations regardless of regional temperature. Species extended their period of adult activity similarly in warmer conditions regardless of voltinism classification. Longer adult durations may represent a general response to warming, but voltinism data in subtropical environments are likely underreported. This effort provides a framework to address the drivers of adult insect phenology at continental scales and a basis for predicting species response to environmental change.

Satellite-derived NDVI underestimates the advancement of alpine vegetation growth over the past three decades

Satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data are increasingly relied on to reveal the growth responses of vegetation to climate change, yet the vegetation growth tracking accuracy of these data remains unclear due to a lack of long-term field data. Here, we adopted a unique field-measured seasonal aboveground biomass dataset from 1982-2014 to assess the potential of using satellite-derived NDVI data to match field data in regard to the interannual variability in seasonal vegetation growth in a Tibetan alpine grassland. We revealed that Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS) NDVI data captured the advancement of field-measured vegetation growth throughout the entire study period but not from 2000-2014, while MODIS NDVI data still observed this advancing trend after 2000 to a limited extent. However, satellite-derived NDVI data consistently underestimated the advancement degree of field-measured vegetation growth, regardless of whether GIMMS or MODIS NDVI data were considered. We tentatively attribute this underestimation to an increased ratio of grass biomass to forb biomass, which could delay the advancement of NDVI development but not affect that of field-measured biomass development. Our results suggest that satellite-derived NDVI data may miss critical responses of vegetation growth to global climate change, potentially due to long-term shifts in plant community composition.

Experimental warming differentially affects vegetative and reproductive phenology of tundra plants

Rapid climate warming is altering Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystem structure and function, including shifts in plant phenology. While the advancement of green up and flowering are well-documented, it remains unclear whether all phenophases, particularly those later in the season, will shift in unison or respond divergently to warming. Here, we present the largest synthesis to our knowledge of experimental warming effects on tundra plant phenology from the International Tundra Experiment. We examine the effect of warming on a suite of season-wide plant phenophases. Results challenge the expectation that all phenophases will advance in unison to warming. Instead, we find that experimental warming caused: (1) larger phenological shifts in reproductive versus vegetative phenophases and (2) advanced reproductive phenophases and green up but delayed leaf senescence which translated to a lengthening of the growing season by approximately 3%. Patterns were consistent across sites, plant species and over time. The advancement of reproductive seasons and lengthening of growing seasons may have significant consequences for trophic interactions and ecosystem function across the tundra.

Species traits affect phenological responses to climate change in a butterfly community

Diverse taxa have undergone phenological shifts in response to anthropogenic climate change. While such shifts generally follow predicted patterns, they are not uniform, and interspecific variation may have important ecological consequences. We evaluated relationships among species' phenological shifts (mean flight date, duration of flight period), ecological traits (larval trophic specialization, larval diet composition, voltinism), and population trends in a butterfly community in Pennsylvania, USA, where the summer growing season has become warmer, wetter, and longer. Data were collected over 7-19 years from 18 species or species groups, including the extremely rare eastern regal fritillary Speyeria idalia idalia. Both the direction and magnitude of phenological change over time was linked to species traits. Polyphagous species advanced and prolonged the duration of their flight period while oligophagous species delayed and shortened theirs. Herb feeders advanced their flight periods while woody feeders delayed theirs. Multivoltine species consistently prolonged flight periods in response to warmer temperatures, while univoltine species were less consistent. Butterflies that shifted to longer flight durations, and those that had polyphagous diets and multivoltine reproductive strategies tended to decline in population. Our results suggest species' traits shape butterfly phenological responses to climate change, and are linked to important community impacts.

Impacts of preseason drought on vegetation spring phenology across the Northeast China Transect

Vegetation phenology is undergoing profound changes in response to the recent increases in the intensity and frequency of drought events. However, the mechanisms by which drought affects the start of the growing season (SGS) are poorly understood particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. Here, we identified varying degrees of preseason drought events and analyzed the sensitivity of the SGS to preseason drought across the Northeast China Transect (NECT). Our results showed that drought caused a delayed SGS in grassland ecosystems, but an advanced SGS within forest ecosystems. These contrasting responses to preseason drought reflected different adaptive strategies between vegetation types. The SGS was shown to be highly sensitive to short timescales drought (1-3 months) in semi-arid grasslands where annual precipitation is 200-300 mm (i.e. SAGE_200-300). Biomes within this region were found to be most vulnerable out of all the ecosystems to drought. Given the frequent nature of droughts in the mid-latitudes, a drought early warning system was recommended accompanied by improved modeling of how the SGS will be affected by intensified drought under future climate change.

Why don't phenophase dates in the current year affect the same phenophase dates in the following year?

Examining whether a phenophase occurrence date in the current year affects the same phenophase occurrence date in the following year is crucial for developing cross-year phenological prediction models. Here, we carried out correlation analyses between leaf unfolding start (LUS)/leaf fall end (LFE) dates in the current and following years for four dominant tree species in temperate northern China from 1981 to 2012. Then, we calculated the recurrence intervals of LUS and LFE between two adjacent years for each species. Moreover, we investigated temperature effects on LUS/LFE dates, growing season and non-growing season lengths. Results show that correlation coefficients between LUS/LFE dates in the current and following years are nonsignificant at most stations. The recurrence interval of a phenophase has slight interannual variation and correlates significantly (and negatively) with the phenophase occurrence date of the current year. Further analyses indicate that LUS dates correlate significantly (and negatively) with spring mean temperatures, while LFE dates correlate significantly (and positively) with autumn mean temperatures, but negatively with growing season mean temperatures. In addition, spring mean temperatures can influence growing season length by controlling LUS date but cannot influence the following non-growing season length. Similarly, autumn mean temperatures and growing season mean temperatures can influence the subsequent non-growing season length but cannot influence the growing season length of the following year. Our study highlights that recurrence interval and time restrictions in the effects of seasonal temperatures on phenophase dates are the main environmental causes of nonsignificant correlations between phenophase occurrence dates in the current and following years.

Contrasting effects of climate change on seasonal survival of a hibernating mammal

Seasonal environmental conditions shape the behavior and life history of virtually all organisms. Climate change is modifying these seasonal environmental conditions, which threatens to disrupt population dynamics. It is conceivable that climatic changes may be beneficial in one season but result in detrimental conditions in another because life-history strategies vary between these time periods. We analyzed the temporal trends in seasonal survival of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) and explored the environmental drivers using a 40-y dataset from the Colorado Rocky Mountains (USA). Trends in survival revealed divergent seasonal patterns, which were similar across age-classes. Marmot survival declined during winter but generally increased during summer. Interestingly, different environmental factors appeared to drive survival trends across age-classes. Winter survival was largely driven by conditions during the preceding summer and the effect of continued climate change was likely to be mainly negative, whereas the likely outcome of continued climate change on summer survival was generally positive. This study illustrates that seasonal demographic responses need disentangling to accurately forecast the impacts of climate change on animal population dynamics.

The Snowmelt Niche Differentiates Three Microbial Life Strategies That Influence Soil Nitrogen Availability During and After Winter

Soil microbial biomass can reach its annual maximum pool size beneath the winter snowpack and is known to decline abruptly following snowmelt in seasonally snow-covered ecosystems. Observed differences in winter versus summer microbial taxonomic composition also suggests that phylogenetically conserved traits may permit winter- versus summer-adapted microorganisms to occupy distinct niches. In this study, we sought to identify archaea, bacteria, and fungi that are associated with the soil microbial bloom overwinter and the subsequent biomass collapse following snowmelt at a high-altitude watershed in central Colorado, United States. Archaea, bacteria, and fungi were categorized into three life strategies (Winter-Adapted, Snowmelt-Specialist, Spring-Adapted) based upon changes in abundance during winter, the snowmelt period, and after snowmelt in spring. We calculated indices of phylogenetic relatedness (archaea and bacteria) or assigned functional attributes (fungi) to organisms within life strategies to infer whether phylogenetically conserved traits differentiate Winter-Adapted, Snowmelt-Specialist, and Spring-Adapted groups. We observed that the soil microbial bloom was correlated in time with a pulse of snowmelt infiltration, which commenced 65 days prior to soils becoming snow-free. A pulse of nitrogen (N, as nitrate) occurred after snowmelt, along with a collapse in the microbial biomass pool size, and an increased abundance of nitrifying archaea and bacteria (e.g., Thaumarchaeota, Nitrospirae). Winter- and Spring-Adapted archaea and bacteria were phylogenetically clustered, suggesting that phylogenetically conserved traits allow Winter- and Spring-Adapted archaea and bacteria to occupy distinct niches. In contrast, Snowmelt-Specialist archaea and bacteria were phylogenetically overdispersed, suggesting that the key mechanism(s) of the microbial biomass crash are likely to be density-dependent (e.g., trophic interactions, competitive exclusion) and affect organisms across a broad phylogenetic spectrum. Saprotrophic fungi were the dominant functional group across fungal life strategies, however, ectomycorrhizal fungi experienced a large increase in abundance in spring. If well-coupled plant-mycorrhizal phenology currently buffers ecosystem N losses in spring, then changes in snowmelt timing may alter ecosystem N retention potential. Overall, we observed that snowmelt separates three distinct soil niches that are occupied by ecologically distinct groups of microorganisms. This ecological differentiation is of biogeochemical importance, particularly with respect to the mobilization of nitrogen during winter, before and after snowmelt.

Alpine grassland plants grow earlier and faster but biomass remains unchanged over 35 years of climate change

Satellite data indicate significant advancement in alpine spring phenology over decades of climate warming, but corresponding field evidence is scarce. It is also unknown whether this advancement results from an earlier shift of phenological events, or enhancement of plant growth under unchanged phenological pattern. By analyzing a 35‐year dataset of seasonal biomass dynamics of a Tibetan alpine grassland, we show that climate change promoted both earlier phenology and faster growth, without changing annual biomass production. Biomass production increased in spring due to a warming‐induced earlier onset of plant growth, but decreased in autumn due mainly to increased water stress. Plants grew faster but the fast‐growing period shortened during the mid‐growing season. These findings provide the first in situ evidence of long‐term changes in growth patterns in alpine grassland plant communities, and suggest that earlier phenology and faster growth will jointly contribute to plant growth in a warming climate.

Butterfly phenology in Mediterranean mountains using space-for-time substitution

Inferring species' responses to climate change in the absence of long-term time series data is a challenge, but can be achieved by substituting space for time. For example, thermal elevational gradients represent suitable proxies to study phenological responses to warming. We used butterfly data from two Mediterranean mountain areas to test whether mean dates of appearance of communities and individual species show a delay with increasing altitude, and an accompanying shortening in the duration of flight periods. We found a 14-day delay in the mean date of appearance per kilometer increase in altitude for butterfly communities overall, and an average 23-day shift for 26 selected species, alongside average summer temperature lapse rates of 3°C per km. At higher elevations, there was a shortening of the flight period for the community of 3 days/km, with an 8.8-day average decline per km for individual species. Rates of phenological delay differed significantly between the two mountain ranges, although this did not seem to result from the respective temperature lapse rates. These results suggest that climate warming could lead to advanced and lengthened flight periods for Mediterranean mountain butterfly communities. However, although multivoltine species showed the expected response of delayed and shortened flight periods at higher elevations, univoltine species showed more pronounced delays in terms of species appearance. Hence, while projections of overall community responses to climate change may benefit from space-for-time substitutions, understanding species-specific responses to local features of habitat and climate may be needed to accurately predict the effects of climate change on phenology.

Divergent Responses of Community Reproductive and Vegetative Phenology to Warming and Cooling: Asymmetry Versus Symmetry

Few studies have focused on the response of plant community phenology to temperature change using manipulative experiments. A lack of understanding of whether responses of community reproductive and vegetative phenological sequences to warming and cooling are asymmetrical or symmetrical limits our capacity to predict responses under warming and cooling. A reciprocal transplant experiment was conducted for 3 years to evaluate response patterns of the temperature sensitivities of community phenological sequences to warming (transferred downward) and cooling (transferred upward) along four elevations on the Tibetan Plateau. We found that the temperature sensitivities of flowering stages had asymmetric responses to warming and cooling, whereas symmetric responses to warming and cooling were observed for the vegetative phenological sequences. Our findings showed that coverage changes of flowering functional groups (FFGs; i.e., early-spring FFG, mid-summer FFG, and late-autumn FFG) and their compensation effects combined with required accumulated soil temperatureto codetermined the asymmetric and symmetric responses of community phenological sequences to warming and cooling. These results suggest that coverage change in FFGs on warming and cooling processes can be a primary driver of community phenological variation and may lead to inaccurate phenlogical estimation at large scale, such as based on remote sensing.

Contrasting stomatal sensitivity to temperature and soil drought in mature alpine conifers

Conifers growing at high elevations need to optimize their stomatal conductance (g_s ) for maximizing photosynthetic yield while minimizing water loss under less favourable thermal conditions. Yet the ability of high-elevation conifers to adjust their g_s sensitivity to environmental drivers remains largely unexplored. We used 4 years of sap flow measurements to elucidate intraspecific and interspecific variability of g_s in Larix decidua Mill. and Picea abies (L.) Karst along an elevational gradient and contrasting soil moisture conditions. Site- and species-specific g_s response to main environmental drivers were examined, including vapour pressure deficit, air temperature, solar irradiance, and soil water potential. Our results indicate that maximum g_s of L. decidua is >2 times higher, shows a more plastic response to temperature, and down-regulates g_s stronger during atmospheric drought compared to P. abies. These differences allow L. decidua to exert more efficient water use, adjust to site-specific thermal conditions, and reduce water loss during drought episodes. The stronger plasticity of g_s sensitivity to temperature and higher conductance of L. decidua compared to P. abies provide new insights into species-specific water use strategies, which affect species' performance and should be considered when predicting terrestrial water dynamics under future climatic change.

Warming shortens flowering seasons of tundra plant communities

Advancing phenology is one of the most visible effects of climate change on plant communities, and has been especially pronounced in temperature-limited tundra ecosystems. However, phenological responses have been shown to differ greatly between species, with some species shifting phenology more than others. We analysed a database of 42,689 tundra plant phenological observations to show that warmer temperatures are leading to a contraction of community-level flowering seasons in tundra ecosystems due to a greater advancement in the flowering times of late-flowering species than early-flowering species. Shorter flowering seasons with a changing climate have the potential to alter trophic interactions in tundra ecosystems. Interestingly, these findings differ from those of warmer ecosystems, where early-flowering species have been found to be more sensitive to temperature change, suggesting that community-level phenological responses to warming can vary greatly between biomes.

Climate change as a possible driver of invasion and differential in HSP70 expression in two genetically distinct populations of the invasive killer shrimp, Dikerogammarus villosus

Global climate change is known to affect physiological processes in charge of cellular stress response. That often results in forcing many organisms to shift their biogeographic distribution ranges. It also holds true for euryoecious and highly invasive species like the killer shrimp, Dikerogammarus villosus. In this study we compare the level of response to thermal stress in two genetically diversified populations of the amphipod D. villosus on the cellular level, namely HSP70 expression. The results show clear difference in HSP70 expression, that can be a direct consequence of the different climatic conditions both populations faced along their invasion routes. We conclude that the eastern population of D. villosus is more sensitive to thermal stress than the western population, hence its invasion potential may be lower than that of the latter. Considering the thermal tolerance of both populations and global warming, we can make some predictions about further spread of D. villosus, including the possibility of an emergence of the super-invader that may arise after cross-breeding of both populations, imposing even larger threat to the freshwater ecosystems.

Highly individualistic rates of plant phenological advance associated with arctic sea ice dynamics

We analysed 12 years of species-specific emergence dates of plants at a Low-Arctic site near Kangerlussuaq, Greenland to investigate associations with sea ice dynamics, a potential contributor to local temperature variation in near-coastal tundra. Species displayed highly variable rates of phenological advance, from a maximum of -2.55 ± 0.17 and -2.93 ± 0.51 d yr^-1 among a graminoid and forb, respectively, to a minimum of -0.55 ± 0.19 d yr^-1 or no advance at all in the two deciduous shrub species. Monthly Arctic-wide sea ice extent was a significant predictor of emergence timing in 10 of 14 species. Despite variation in rates of advance among species, these rates were generally greatest in the earliest emerging species, for which monthly sea ice extent was also the primary predictor of emergence. Variation among species in rates of phenological advance reshuffled the phenological community, with deciduous shrubs leafing out progressively later relative to forbs and graminoids. Because early species advanced more rapidly than late species, and because rates of advance were greatest in species for which emergence phenology was associated with sea ice dynamics, accelerating sea ice decline may contribute to further divergence between early- and late-emerging species in this community.

Changes in flowering functional group affect responses of community phenological sequences to temperature change

Our ability to predict how temperature modifies phenology at the community scale is limited by our lack of understanding of responses by functional groups of flowering plants. These responses differ among species with different life histories. We performed a reciprocal transplant experiment along four elevation gradients (e.g., 3,200, 3,400, 3,600 and 3,800 m) to investigate the effects of warming (transferred downward) and cooling (transferred upward) on plant flowering functional groups (FFGs) and community phenological sequences (i.e., seven phenological events). Warming significantly decreased early-spring-flowering (ESF) plant coverage and increased mid-summer-flowering plant (MSF) coverage, while cooling had the opposite effect. All community phenological events were advanced by warming and delayed by cooling except for the date of complete leaf-coloring, which showed the opposite response. Warming and cooling could cause greater advance or delay in early-season phenological events of the community through increased coverage of MSF species, and warming could delay late-season phenological events of the community by increased coverage of ESF species. These results suggested that coverage change of FFGs in the community induced by temperature change could mediate the responses of the community phenological events to temperature change in the future. The response of phenological events to temperature change at the species level may not be sufficient to predict phenological responses at the community-level due to phenological compensation between species in the community.

Interaction webs in arctic ecosystems: Determinants of arctic change?

How species interact modulate their dynamics, their response to environmental change, and ultimately the functioning and stability of entire communities. Work conducted at Zackenberg, Northeast Greenland, has changed our view on how networks of arctic biotic interactions are structured, how they vary in time, and how they are changing with current environmental change: firstly, the high arctic interaction webs are much more complex than previously envisaged, and with a structure mainly dictated by its arthropod component. Secondly, the dynamics of species within these webs reflect changes in environmental conditions. Thirdly, biotic interactions within a trophic level may affect other trophic levels, in some cases ultimately affecting land-atmosphere feedbacks. Finally, differential responses to environmental change may decouple interacting species. These insights form Zackenberg emphasize that the combination of long-term, ecosystem-based monitoring, and targeted research projects offers the most fruitful basis for understanding and predicting the future of arctic ecosystems.

High daytime temperature delays autumnal bud formation in Populus tremula under field conditions

The effects of warming on autumnal growth cessation and bud formation in trees remain ambiguous due to contrasting observations between a range of studies under controlled conditions and field experiments. High night temperature has been reported to advance growth cessation and bud formation in several tree species grown under controlled conditions. On the other hand, some recent field experiments have shown that autumn warming delays bud formation, although the temperature parameters that could account for this effect have not been identified. In addition, dioecious species have been shown to respond differently to environmental change, and differential warming effects on the sexes have received limited attention, even more so in relation to phenology. In a data set including three separate field experiments employing either experimental warming or an elevational gradient, we tested the effect of different temperature parameters on apical, vegetative bud formation and transitions between bud stages in female and male clones of Eurasian aspen (Populus tremula). Increased temperature was found to delay bud formation, and this process was best explained by maximum daily temperature. Males were significantly delayed compared with females in forming green closed buds, a process best explained by mean 24 h temperature. Bud maturation was best explained by mean daytime temperature, and buds matured significantly faster in males than in females, possibly explaining why females and males did not differ in terms of overall bud formation. In conclusion, our data show that delayed bud formation in Eurasian aspen during autumn can be attributed to the effect of high temperature, and this effect is in contrast to most of the evidence from studies of bud development in controlled environments.

Five years of phenology observations from a mixed-grass prairie exposed to warming and elevated CO2

Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations have been steadily increasing since the Industrial Era and contribute to concurrent increases in global temperatures. Many observational studies suggest climate warming alone contributes to a longer growing season. To determine the relative effect of warming on plant phenology, we investigated the individual and joint effects of warming and CO₂ enrichment on a mixed-grass prairie plant community by following the development of six common grassland species and recording four major life history events. Our data support that, in a semi-arid system, while warming advances leaf emergence and flower production, it also expedites seed maturation and senescence at the species level. However, the additive effect can be an overall lengthening of the growing and reproductive seasons since CO₂ enrichment, particularly when combined with warming, contributed to a longer growing season by delaying plant maturation and senescence. Fostering synthesis across multiple phenology datasets and identifying key factors affecting plant phenology will be vital for understanding regional plant community responses to climate change.

Constrained growth flips the direction of optimal phenological responses among annual plants

Phenological changes among plants due to climate change are well documented, but often hard to interpret. In order to assess the adaptive value of observed changes, we study how annual plants with and without growth constraints should optimize their flowering time when productivity and season length changes. We consider growth constraints that depend on the plant's vegetative mass: self-shading, costs for nonphotosynthetic structural tissue and sibling competition. We derive the optimal flowering time from a dynamic energy allocation model using optimal control theory. We prove that an immediate switch (bang-bang control) from vegetative to reproductive growth is optimal with constrained growth and constant mortality. Increasing mean productivity, while keeping season length constant and growth unconstrained, delayed the optimal flowering time. When growth was constrained and productivity was relatively high, the optimal flowering time advanced instead. When the growth season was extended equally at both ends, the optimal flowering time was advanced under constrained growth and delayed under unconstrained growth. Our results suggests that growth constraints are key factors to consider when interpreting phenological flowering responses. It can help to explain phenological patterns along productivity gradients, and links empirical observations made on calendar scales with life-history theory.

The extent of shifts in vegetation phenology between rural and urban areas within a human-dominated region

Urbanization is one of the major environmental challenges facing the world today. One of its particularly pressing effects is alterations to local and regional climate through, for example, the Urban Heat Island. Such changes in conditions are likely to have an impact on the phenology of urban vegetation, which will have knock-on implications for the role that urban green infrastructure can play in delivering multiple ecosystem services. Here, in a human-dominated region, we undertake an explicit comparison of vegetation phenology between urban and rural zones. Using satellite-derived MODIS-EVI data from the first decade of the 20th century, we extract metrics of vegetation phenology (date of start of growing season, date of end of growing season, and length of season) for Britain's 15 largest cities and their rural surrounds. On average, urban areas experienced a growing season 8.8 days longer than surrounding rural zones. As would be expected, there was a significant decline in growing season length with latitude (by 3.4 and 2.4 days/degree latitude in rural and urban areas respectively). Although there is considerable variability in how phenology in urban and rural areas differs across our study cities, we found no evidence that built urban form influences the start, end, or length of the growing season. However, the difference in the length of the growing season between rural and urban areas was significantly negatively associated with the mean disposable household income for a city. Vegetation in urban areas deliver many ecosystem services such as temperature mitigation, pollution removal, carbon uptake and storage, the provision of amenity value for humans and habitat for biodiversity. Given the rapid pace of urbanization and ongoing climate change, understanding how vegetation phenology will alter in the future is important if we wish to be able to manage urban greenspaces effectively.

Lower plasticity exhibited by high- versus mid-elevation species in their phenological responses to manipulated temperature and drought

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Recent global changes, particularly warming and drought, have had worldwide repercussions on the timing of flowering events for many plant species. Phenological shifts have also been reported in alpine environments, where short growing seasons and low temperatures make reproduction particularly challenging, requiring fine-tuning to environmental cues. However, it remains unclear if species from such habitats, with their specific adaptations, harbour the same potential for phenological plasticity as species from less demanding habitats.

METHODS

Fourteen congeneric species pairs originating from mid and high elevation were reciprocally transplanted to common gardens at 1050 and 2000 m a.s.l. that mimic prospective climates and natural field conditions. A drought treatment was implemented to assess the combined effects of temperature and precipitation changes on the onset and duration of reproductive phenophases. A phenotypic plasticity index was calculated to evaluate if mid- and high-elevation species harbour the same potential for plasticity in reproductive phenology.

KEY RESULTS

Transplantations resulted in considerable shifts in reproductive phenology, with highly advanced initiation and shortened phenophases at the lower (and warmer) site for both mid- and high-elevation species. Drought stress amplified these responses and induced even further advances and shortening of phenophases, a response consistent with an 'escape strategy'. The observed phenological shifts were generally smaller in number of days for high-elevation species and resulted in a smaller phenotypic plasticity index, relative to their mid-elevation congeners.

CONCLUSIONS

While mid- and high-elevation species seem to adequately shift their reproductive phenology to track ongoing climate changes, high-elevation species were less capable of doing so and appeared more genetically constrained to their specific adaptations to an extreme environment (i.e. a short, cold growing season).

Substantial variation in leaf senescence times among 1360 temperate woody plant species: implications for phenology and ecosystem processes

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Autumn leaf senescence marks the end of the growing season in temperate ecosystems. Its timing influences a number of ecosystem processes, including carbon, water and nutrient cycling. Climate change is altering leaf senescence phenology and, as those changes continue, it will affect individual woody plants, species and ecosystems. In contrast to spring leaf out times, however, leaf senescence times remain relatively understudied. Variation in the phenology of leaf senescence among species and locations is still poorly understood.

METHODS

Leaf senescence phenology of 1360 deciduous plant species at six temperate botanical gardens in Asia, North America and Europe was recorded in 2012 and 2013. This large data set was used to explore ecological and phylogenetic factors associated with variation in leaf senescence.

KEY RESULTS

Leaf senescence dates among species varied by 3 months on average across the six locations. Plant species tended to undergo leaf senescence in the same order in the autumns of both years at each location, but the order of senescence was only weakly correlated across sites. Leaf senescence times were not related to spring leaf out times, were not evolutionarily conserved and were only minimally influenced by growth habit, wood anatomy and percentage colour change or leaf drop. These weak patterns of leaf senescence timing contrast with much stronger leaf out patterns from a previous study.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that, in contrast to the broader temperature effects that determine leaf out times, leaf senescence times are probably determined by a larger or different suite of local environmental effects, including temperature, soil moisture, frost and wind. Determining the importance of these factors for a wide range of species represents the next challenge for understanding how climate change is affecting the end of the growing season and associated ecosystem processes.

Greater deciduous shrub abundance extends tundra peak season and increases modeled net CO2 uptake

Satellite studies of the terrestrial Arctic report increased summer greening and longer overall growing and peak seasons since the 1980s, which increases productivity and the period of carbon uptake. These trends are attributed to increasing air temperatures and reduced snow cover duration in spring and fall. Concurrently, deciduous shrubs are becoming increasingly abundant in tundra landscapes, which may also impact canopy phenology and productivity. Our aim was to determine the influence of greater deciduous shrub abundance on tundra canopy phenology and subsequent impacts on net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) during the growing and peak seasons in the arctic foothills region of Alaska. We compared deciduous shrub-dominated and evergreen/graminoid-dominated community-level canopy phenology throughout the growing season using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We used a tundra plant-community-specific leaf area index (LAI) model to estimate LAI throughout the green season and a tundra-specific NEE model to estimate the impact of greater deciduous shrub abundance and associated shifts in both leaf area and canopy phenology on tundra carbon flux. We found that deciduous shrub canopies reached the onset of peak greenness 13 days earlier and the onset of senescence 3 days earlier compared to evergreen/graminoid canopies, resulting in a 10-day extension of the peak season. The combined effect of the longer peak season and greater leaf area of deciduous shrub canopies almost tripled the modeled net carbon uptake of deciduous shrub communities compared to evergreen/graminoid communities, while the longer peak season alone resulted in 84% greater carbon uptake in deciduous shrub communities. These results suggest that greater deciduous shrub abundance increases carbon uptake not only due to greater leaf area, but also due to an extension of the period of peak greenness, which extends the period of maximum carbon uptake.

Flowering and biomass allocation in U.S. Atlantic coast Spartina alterniflora

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Salt marshes are highly productive and valuable ecosystems, providing many services on which people depend. Spartina alterniflora Loisel (Poaceae) is a foundation species that builds and maintains salt marshes. Despite this species' importance, much of its basic reproductive biology is not well understood, including flowering phenology, seed production, and the effects of flowering on growth and biomass allocation. We sought to better understand these life history traits and use that knowledge to consider how this species may be affected by climate change.

METHODS

We examined temporal and spatial patterns in flowering and seed production in S. alterniflora at a latitudinal scale (along the U.S. Atlantic coast), regional scale (within New England), and local scale (among subhabitats within marshes) and determined the impact of flowering on growth allocation using field and greenhouse studies.

KEY RESULTS

Flowering stem density did not vary along a latitudinal gradient, while at the local scale plants in the less submerged panne subhabitats produced fewer flowers and seeds than those in more frequently submerged subhabitats. We also found that a shift in biomass allocation from above to belowground was temporally related to flowering phenology.

CONCLUSIONS

We expect that environmental change will affect seed production and that the phenological relationship with flowering will result in limitations to belowground production and thus affect marsh elevation gain. Salt marshes provide an excellent model system for exploring the interactions between plant ecology and ecosystem functioning, enabling better predictions of climate change impacts.

Predicted responses of arctic and alpine ecosystems to altered seasonality under climate change

Global climate change is already having significant impacts on arctic and alpine ecosystems, and ongoing increases in temperature and altered precipitation patterns will affect the strong seasonal patterns that characterize these temperature-limited systems. The length of the potential growing season in these tundra environments is increasing due to warmer temperatures and earlier spring snow melt. Here, we compare current and projected climate and ecological data from 20 Northern Hemisphere sites to identify how seasonal changes in the physical environment due to climate change will alter the seasonality of arctic and alpine ecosystems. We find that although arctic and alpine ecosystems appear similar under historical climate conditions, climate change will lead to divergent responses, particularly in the spring and fall shoulder seasons. As seasonality changes in the Arctic, plants will advance the timing of spring phenological events, which could increase plant nutrient uptake, production, and ecosystem carbon (C) gain. In alpine regions, photoperiod will constrain spring plant phenology, limiting the extent to which the growing season can lengthen, especially if decreased water availability from earlier snow melt and warmer summer temperatures lead to earlier senescence. The result could be a shorter growing season with decreased production and increased nutrient loss. These contrasting alpine and arctic ecosystem responses will have cascading effects on ecosystems, affecting community structure, biotic interactions, and biogeochemistry.

Links between plant species' spatial and temporal responses to a warming climate

To generate realistic projections of species' responses to climate change, we need to understand the factors that limit their ability to respond. Although climatic niche conservatism, the maintenance of a species's climatic niche over time, is a critical assumption in niche-based species distribution models, little is known about how universal it is and how it operates. In particular, few studies have tested the role of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes in explaining the reported wide variance in the extent of range shifts among species. Using historical records of the phenology and spatial distribution of British plants under a warming climate, we revealed that: (i) perennial species, as well as those with weaker or lagged phenological responses to temperature, experienced a greater increase in temperature during flowering (i.e. failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes); (ii) species that failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes showed greater northward range shifts; and (iii) there was a complementary relationship between the levels of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes and range shifts. These results indicate that even species with high climatic niche conservatism might not show range shifts as instead they track warming temperatures during flowering by advancing their phenology.

Shifts in flowering phenology reshape a subalpine plant community

Phenology--the timing of biological events--is highly sensitive to climate change. However, our general understanding of how phenology responds to climate change is based almost solely on incomplete assessments of phenology (such as first date of flowering) rather than on entire phenological distributions. Using a uniquely comprehensive 39-y flowering phenology dataset from the Colorado Rocky Mountains that contains more than 2 million flower counts, we reveal a diversity of species-level phenological shifts that bring into question the accuracy of previous estimates of long-term phenological change. For 60 species, we show that first, peak, and last flowering rarely shift uniformly and instead usually shift independently of one another, resulting in a diversity of phenological changes through time. Shifts in the timing of first flowering on average overestimate the magnitude of shifts in the timing of peak flowering, fail to predict shifts in the timing of last flowering, and underrepresent the number of species changing phenology in this plant community. Ultimately, this diversity of species-level phenological shifts contributes to altered coflowering patterns within the community, a redistribution of floral abundance across the season, and an expansion of the flowering season by more than I mo during the course of our study period. These results demonstrate the substantial reshaping of ecological communities that can be attributed to shifts in phenology.

Changes in the structure and function of northern Alaskan ecosystems when considering variable leaf-out times across groupings of species in a dynamic vegetation model

The phenology of arctic ecosystems is driven primarily by abiotic forces, with temperature acting as the main determinant of growing season onset and leaf budburst in the spring. However, while the plant species in arctic ecosystems require differing amounts of accumulated heat for leaf-out, dynamic vegetation models simulated over regional to global scales typically assume some average leaf-out for all of the species within an ecosystem. Here, we make use of air temperature records and observations of spring leaf phenology collected across dominant groupings of species (dwarf birch shrubs, willow shrubs, other deciduous shrubs, grasses, sedges, and forbs) in arctic and boreal ecosystems in Alaska. We then parameterize a dynamic vegetation model based on these data for four types of tundra ecosystems (heath tundra, shrub tundra, wet sedge tundra, and tussock tundra), as well as ecotonal boreal white spruce forest, and perform model simulations for the years 1970-2100. Over the course of the model simulations, we found changes in ecosystem composition under this new phenology algorithm compared with simulations with the previous phenology algorithm. These changes were the result of the differential timing of leaf-out, as well as the ability for the groupings of species to compete for nitrogen and light availability. Regionally, there were differences in the trends of the carbon pools and fluxes between the new phenology algorithm and the previous phenology algorithm, although these differences depended on the future climate scenario. These findings indicate the importance of leaf phenology data collection by species and across the various ecosystem types within the highly heterogeneous Arctic landscape, and that dynamic vegetation models should consider variation in leaf-out by groupings of species within these ecosystems to make more accurate projections of future plant distributions and carbon cycling in Arctic regions.

Seasonality of North Atlantic phytoplankton from space: impact of environmental forcing on a changing phenology (1998-2012)

Seasonal pulses of phytoplankton drive seasonal cycles of carbon fixation and particle sedimentation, and might condition recruitment success in many exploited species. Taking advantage of long-term series of remotely sensed chlorophyll a (1998-2012), we analyzed changes in phytoplankton seasonality in the North Atlantic Ocean. Phytoplankton phenology was analyzed based on a probabilistic characterization of bloom incidence. This approach allowed us to detect changes in the prevalence of different seasonal cycles and, at the same time, to estimate bloom timing and magnitude taking into account uncertainty in bloom detection. Deviations between different sensors stressed the importance of a prolonged overlap between successive missions to ensure a correct assessment of phenological changes, as well as the advantage of semi-analytical chlorophyll algorithms over empirical ones to reduce biases. Earlier and more intense blooms were detected in the subpolar Atlantic, while advanced blooms of less magnitude were common in the Subtropical gyre. In the temperate North Atlantic, spring blooms advanced their timing and decreased in magnitude, whereas fall blooms delayed and increased their intensity. At the same time, the prevalence of locations with a single autumn/winter bloom or with a bimodal seasonal cycle increased, in consonance with a poleward expansion of subtropical conditions. Changes in bloom timing and magnitude presented a clear signature of environmental factors, especially wind forcing, although changes on incident photosynthetically active radiation and sea surface temperature were also important depending on latitude. Trends in bloom magnitude matched changes in mean chlorophyll a during the study period, suggesting that seasonal peaks drive long-term trends in chlorophyll a concentration. Our results link changes in North Atlantic climate with recent trends in the phenology of phytoplankton, suggesting an intensification of these impacts in the near future.

Species- and community-level responses combine to drive phenology of lake phytoplankton

Global change is leading to shifts in the seasonal timing of growth and maturation for primary producers. Remote sensing is increasingly used to measure the timing of primary production in both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, but there is often a poor correlation between these results and direct observations of life-history responses of individual species. One explanation may be that, in addition to phenological shifts, global change is also causing shifts in community composition among species with different seasonal timing of growth and maturation. We quantified how shifts in species phenology and in community composition translated into phenological change in a diverse phytoplankton community from 1962 to 2000. During this time, the aggregate community spring-summer phytoplankton peak has shifted 63 days earlier. The mean taxon shift was only 3 days earlier, and shifts in taxa phenology explained only 40% of the observed community phenological shift. The remaining community shift was attributed to dominant early-season taxa increasing in abundance while a dominant late-season taxon decreased in abundance. In diverse producer communities experiencing multiple stressors, changes in species composition must be considered to fully understand and predict shifts in the seasonal timing of primary production.