1
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Flores BM, Montoya E, Sakschewski B, Nascimento N, Staal A, Betts RA, Levis C, Lapola DM, Esquível-Muelbert A, Jakovac C, Nobre CA, Oliveira RS, Borma LS, Nian D, Boers N, Hecht SB, Ter Steege H, Arieira J, Lucas IL, Berenguer E, Marengo JA, Gatti LV, Mattos CRC, Hirota M. Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system. Nature 2024; 626:555-564. [PMID: 38356065 PMCID: PMC10866695 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2022] [Accepted: 12/13/2023] [Indexed: 02/16/2024]
Abstract
The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern1-3. For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system1. Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving different feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local efforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global efforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bernardo M Flores
- Graduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil.
| | - Encarni Montoya
- Geosciences Barcelona, Spanish National Research Council, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Boris Sakschewski
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | | | - Arie Staal
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Richard A Betts
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
- Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Carolina Levis
- Graduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil
| | - David M Lapola
- Center for Meteorological and Climatic Research Applied to Agriculture, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil
| | - Adriane Esquível-Muelbert
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Catarina Jakovac
- Department of Plant Sciences, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil
| | - Carlos A Nobre
- Institute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Rafael S Oliveira
- Department of Plant Biology, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil
| | - Laura S Borma
- Division of Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilities (DIIAV), National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil
| | - Da Nian
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Niklas Boers
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Susanna B Hecht
- Luskin School for Public Affairs and Institute of the Environment, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Hans Ter Steege
- Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
- Quantitative Biodiversity Dynamics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Julia Arieira
- Science Panel for the Amazon (SPA), São José dos Campos, Brazil
| | | | - Erika Berenguer
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - José A Marengo
- Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais, São José dos Campos, Brazil
- Graduate Program in Natural Disasters, UNESP/CEMADEN, São José dos Campos, Brazil
- Graduate School of International Studies, Korea University, Seoul, Korea
| | - Luciana V Gatti
- Division of Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilities (DIIAV), National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil
| | - Caio R C Mattos
- Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Marina Hirota
- Graduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil.
- Department of Plant Biology, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil.
- Group IpES, Department of Physics, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil.
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2
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Gimeno M, Giménez J, Chiaradia A, Davis LS, Seddon PJ, Ropert-Coudert Y, Reisinger RR, Coll M, Ramírez F. Climate and human stressors on global penguin hotspots: Current assessments for future conservation. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2024; 30:e17143. [PMID: 38273518 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17143] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2023] [Accepted: 12/14/2023] [Indexed: 01/27/2024]
Abstract
As charismatic and iconic species, penguins can act as "ambassadors" or flagship species to promote the conservation of marine habitats in the Southern Hemisphere. Unfortunately, there is a lack of reliable, comprehensive, and systematic analysis aimed at compiling spatially explicit assessments of the multiple impacts that the world's 18 species of penguin are facing. We provide such an assessment by combining the available penguin occurrence information from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (>800,000 occurrences) with three main stressors: climate-driven environmental changes at sea, industrial fisheries, and human disturbances on land. Our analyses provide a quantitative assessment of how these impacts are unevenly distributed spatially within species' distribution ranges. Consequently, contrasting pressures are expected among species, and populations within species. The areas coinciding with the greatest impacts for penguins are the coast of Perú, the Patagonian Shelf, the Benguela upwelling region, and the Australian and New Zealand coasts. When weighting these potential stressors with species-specific vulnerabilities, Humboldt (Spheniscus humboldti), African (Spheniscus demersus), and Chinstrap penguin (Pygoscelis antarcticus) emerge as the species under the most pressure. Our approach explicitly differentiates between climate and human stressors, since the more achievable management of local anthropogenic stressors (e.g., fisheries and land-based threats) may provide a suitable means for facilitating cumulative impacts on penguins, especially where they may remain resilient to global processes such as climate change. Moreover, our study highlights some poorly represented species such as the Northern Rockhopper (Eudyptes moseleyi), Snares (Eudyptes robustus), and Erect-crested penguin (Eudyptes sclateri) that need internationally coordinated efforts for data acquisition and data sharing to understand their spatial distribution properly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Míriam Gimeno
- Institut de Ciencies del Mar, Recursos Marins Renovables, Barcelona, Spain
- Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals, Facultat de Biologia, Universitat de Barcelona (UB), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Joan Giménez
- Institut de Ciencies del Mar, Recursos Marins Renovables, Barcelona, Spain
- Centro Oceanográfico de Málaga (COMA), Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO-CSIC), Fuengirola, Spain
| | - Andre Chiaradia
- Conservation Department, Phillip Island Nature Parks, Cowes, Victoria, Australia
| | | | | | | | - Ryan R Reisinger
- School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Marta Coll
- Institut de Ciencies del Mar, Recursos Marins Renovables, Barcelona, Spain
- Ecopath International Initiative (EII), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Francisco Ramírez
- Institut de Ciencies del Mar, Recursos Marins Renovables, Barcelona, Spain
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3
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Qian G, Zhang L, Chen Y, Xu C. Fish microplastic ingestion may induce tipping points of aquatic ecosystems. J Anim Ecol 2024; 93:45-56. [PMID: 37970633 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.14027] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2023] [Accepted: 11/01/2023] [Indexed: 11/17/2023]
Abstract
Microplastics can be ingested by a wide range of aquatic animals. Extensive studies have demonstrated that microplastic ingestion-albeit often not lethal-can affect a range of species life-history traits. However, it remains unclear how the sublethal effects of microplastics on individual levels scale up to influence ecosystem-level dynamics through cascading trophic interactions. Here we employ a well-studied, empirically fed three-species trophic chain model, which was parameterized to mimic a common type of aquatic ecosystems to examine how microplastic ingestion by fish on an intermediate trophic level can produce cascading effects on the species at both upper and lower trophic levels. We show that gradually increasing microplastics in the ingested substances of planktivorous fish may cause population structure effects such as skewed size distributions (i.e. reduced average body length vs. increased maximal body size), and induce abrupt declines in fish biomass and reproduction. Our model analysis demonstrates that these abrupt changes correspond to an ecosystem-level tipping point, crossing which difficult-to-reverse ecosystem degradation can happen. Importantly, microplastic pollution may interact with other anthropogenic stressors to reduce safe operating space of aquatic ecosystems. Our work contributes to better understanding complex effects of microplastic pollution and anticipating tipping points of aquatic ecosystems in a changing world. It also calls attention to an emerging threat that novel microplastic contaminants may lead to unexpected and abrupt degradation of aquatic ecosystems, and invites systematic studies on the ecosystem-level consequences of microplastic exposure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guangjing Qian
- School of Mathematical Science, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, China
| | - Lai Zhang
- School of Mathematical Science, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, China
| | - Yuxin Chen
- School of Mathematical Science, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, China
| | - Chi Xu
- School of Life Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
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4
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Bellamy R. Public perceptions of climate tipping points. PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING OF SCIENCE (BRISTOL, ENGLAND) 2023; 32:1033-1047. [PMID: 37377214 PMCID: PMC10631267 DOI: 10.1177/09636625231177820] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/29/2023]
Abstract
Coverage of climate tipping points has rapidly increased over the past 20 years. Despite this upsurge, there has been precious little research into how the public perceives these abrupt and/or irreversible large-scale risks. This article provides a nationally representative view on public perceptions of climate tipping points and possible societal responses to them (n = 1773). Developing a mixed-methods survey with cultural cognition theory, it shows that awareness among the British public is low. The public is doubtful about the future effectiveness of humanity's response to climate change in general, and significantly more doubtful about its response to tipping points specifically. Significantly more people with an egalitarian worldview judge tipping points likely to be crossed and to be a significant threat to humanity. All possible societal responses received strong support. The article ends by considering the prospects for 'cultural tipping elements' to tip support for climate policies across divergent cultural worldviews.
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5
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Jin L, Chen H, Matsuzaki SIS, Shinohara R, Wilkinson DM, Yang J. Tipping points of nitrogen use efficiency in freshwater phytoplankton along trophic state gradient. WATER RESEARCH 2023; 245:120639. [PMID: 37774538 DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2023.120639] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2023] [Revised: 08/27/2023] [Accepted: 09/15/2023] [Indexed: 10/01/2023]
Abstract
Eutrophication and harmful algal blooms have severe effects on water quality and biodiversity in lakes and reservoirs. Ecological regime shifts of phytoplankton blooms are generally thought to be driven by the rapidly rising nutrient use efficiency of bloom-forming species over short periods, and often exhibit nonlinear dynamics. Regime shifts of trophic state, eutrophication, stratification, and clear or turbid waters are well-studied topics in aquatic ecology. However, information on the prevalence of regime shifts in relationships between trophic states and phytoplankton resource transfer efficiencies in ecosystems is still lacking. Here, we provided a first insight into regime shifts in nitrogen use efficiency of phytoplankton along the trophic state gradient. We explored the regime shifts of phytoplankton resource use efficiency and detected the tipping points by combining four temporal or spatial datasets from tropical to temperate zones in Asia and Europe. We first observed significant abrupt transitions (abruptness > 1) in phytoplankton nitrogen use efficiency along the trophic state gradient. The tipping point values were lower in subtropical/tropical waterbodies (mesotrophic states; TSIc: around 50) than those in temperate zones (eutrophic states; TSIc: 60-70). The regime shifts significantly reduced the primary production transfer efficiency via zooplankton (from 0.15 ± 0.03 to 0.03 ± 0.01; mean ± standard error) in the aquatic food web. Nitrogen-fixing filamentous cyanobacteria can drive eutrophication under mesotrophic state. Our findings imply that the time-window of opportunity for harmful algae prevention and control in lakes and reservoirs is earlier in subtropical/tropical regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lei Jin
- Aquatic EcoHealth Group, Fujian Key Laboratory of Watershed Ecology, Key Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Huihuang Chen
- Aquatic EcoHealth Group, Fujian Key Laboratory of Watershed Ecology, Key Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Shin-Ichiro S Matsuzaki
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
| | - Ryuichiro Shinohara
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
| | - David M Wilkinson
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, UK
| | - Jun Yang
- Aquatic EcoHealth Group, Fujian Key Laboratory of Watershed Ecology, Key Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China.
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6
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Koelmans AA, Redondo-Hasselerharm PE, Mohamed Nor NH, Gouin T. On the probability of ecological risks from microplastics in the Laurentian Great lakes. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION (BARKING, ESSEX : 1987) 2023; 325:121445. [PMID: 36924914 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2023.121445] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2022] [Revised: 03/10/2023] [Accepted: 03/12/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
The Laurentian Great Lakes represent important and iconic ecosystems. Microplastic pollution has become a major problem among other anthropogenic stressors in these lakes. There is a need for policy development, however, assessing the risks of microplastics is complicated due to the uncertainty and poor quality of the data and incompatibility of exposure and effect data for microplastics with different properties. Here we provide a prospective probabilistic risk assessment for Great Lakes sediments and surface waters that corrects for the misalignment between exposure and effect data, accounts for variability due to sample volume when using trawl samples, for the random spatiotemporal variability of exposure data, for uncertainty in data quality (QA/QC), in the slope of the power law used to rescale the data, and in the HC5 threshold effect concentration obtained from Species Sensitivity Distributions (SSDs). We rank the lakes in order of the increasing likelihood of risks from microplastics, for pelagic and benthic exposures. A lake-wide risk, i.e. where each location exceeds the risk limit, is not found for any of the lakes. However, the probability of a risk from food dilution occurring in parts of the lakes is 13-15% of the benthic exposures in Lakes Erie and Huron, and 8.3-10.3% of the pelagic exposures in Lake Michigan, Lake Huron, Lake Superior, and Lake Erie, and 24% of the pelagic exposures in Lake Ontario. To reduce the identified uncertainties, we recommend that future research focuses on characterizing and quantifying environmentally relevant microplastic (ERMP) over a wider size range (ideally 1-5000 μm) so that probability density functions (PDFs) can be better calibrated for different habitats. Toxicity effect testing should use a similarly wide range of sizes and other ERMP characteristics so that complex data alignments can be minimized and assumptions regarding ecologically relevant dose metrics (ERMs) can be validated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Albert A Koelmans
- Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Wageningen University, 6700, DD, Wageningen, the Netherlands.
| | - Paula E Redondo-Hasselerharm
- IMDEA Water Institute, Science and Technology Campus of the University of Alcalá, Avenida Punto Com, 2, 28805, Alcalá de Henares, Madrid, Spain
| | - Nur Hazimah Mohamed Nor
- Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
| | - Todd Gouin
- TG Environmental Research, Sharnbrook, Bedfordshire, United Kingdom
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7
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Polst BH, Hilt S, Stibor H, Hölker F, Allen J, Vijayaraj V, Kipferler N, Leflaive J, Gross EM, Schmitt-Jansen M. Warming lowers critical thresholds for multiple stressor-induced shifts between aquatic primary producers. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 838:156511. [PMID: 35679921 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156511] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2022] [Revised: 05/31/2022] [Accepted: 06/02/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
In aquatic ecosystems, excessive nutrient loading is a global problem that can induce regime shifts from macrophyte- to phytoplankton-dominated states with severe consequences for ecosystem functions. Most agricultural landscapes are sites of nutrient and pesticide loading, which can interact with other stressors (e.g., warming) in additive, antagonistic, synergistic or reversed forms. The effects of multiple stressors on the resilience of macrophyte-dominated states and on critical thresholds for regime shifts are, however, unknown. We test the effects of individual and combined stressors of warming, nitrate, and various pesticides typically found in agricultural run-off (ARO) on the growth of macrophytes, periphyton, and phytoplankton in microcosms. We applied a one-level replicated design to test whether ARO induces a regime shift and a multifactorial dose-response design to model stressor thresholds and disentangle stressor interactions along a gradient. The individual stressors did not induce a regime shift, but the full ARO did. Nitrate and pesticides acted synergistically, inducing a shift with increasing phytoplankton biomass and decreasing macrophyte biomass. Warming amplified this effect and lowered critical thresholds for regime shifts. Shallow aquatic ecosystems in agricultural landscapes affected by global warming thus increasingly risk shifting to a turbid, phytoplankton-dominated state, and negatively impacting ecosystem service provisioning. Multiple stressor interactions must be considered when defining safe operating spaces for aquatic systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bastian H Polst
- Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig, Germany.
| | - Sabine Hilt
- Leibniz Institute for Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Berlin, Germany
| | - Herwig Stibor
- Ludwig-Maximilians University Munich, Aquatic Ecology, Munich, Germany
| | - Franz Hölker
- Leibniz Institute for Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Berlin, Germany
| | - Joey Allen
- Université de Lorraine, LIEC UMR 7360 CNRS, Metz, France; Université de Toulouse, Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement UMR 5245 CNRS, Toulouse, France
| | | | - Nora Kipferler
- Ludwig-Maximilians University Munich, Aquatic Ecology, Munich, Germany
| | - Joséphine Leflaive
- Université de Toulouse, Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement UMR 5245 CNRS, Toulouse, France
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8
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Flores BM, Staal A. Feedback in tropical forests of the Anthropocene. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:5041-5061. [PMID: 35770837 PMCID: PMC9542052 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16293] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2021] [Revised: 04/06/2022] [Accepted: 05/31/2022] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Tropical forests are complex systems containing myriad interactions and feedbacks with their biotic and abiotic environments, but as the world changes fast, the future of these ecosystems becomes increasingly uncertain. In particular, global stressors may unbalance the feedbacks that stabilize tropical forests, allowing other feedbacks to propel undesired changes in the whole ecosystem. Here, we review the scientific literature across various fields, compiling known interactions of tropical forests with their environment, including the global climate, rainfall, aerosols, fire, soils, fauna, and human activities. We identify 170 individual interactions among 32 elements that we present as a global tropical forest network, including countless feedback loops that may emerge from different combinations of interactions. We illustrate our findings with three cases involving urgent sustainability issues: (1) wildfires in wetlands of South America; (2) forest encroachment in African savanna landscapes; and (3) synergistic threats to the peatland forests of Borneo. Our findings reveal an unexplored world of feedbacks that shape the dynamics of tropical forests. The interactions and feedbacks identified here can guide future qualitative and quantitative research on the complexities of tropical forests, allowing societies to manage the nonlinear responses of these ecosystems in the Anthropocene.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bernardo M. Flores
- Graduate Program in EcologyFederal University of Santa CatarinaFlorianopolisBrazil
| | - Arie Staal
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable DevelopmentUtrecht UniversityUtrechtThe Netherlands
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9
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van de Water A, Di Minin E, Slotow R. Human-elephant coexistence through aligning conservation with societal aspirations. Glob Ecol Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2022.e02165] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
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10
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Hansen GJA, Wehrly KE, Vitense K, Walsh JR, Jacobson PC. Quantifying the resilience of coldwater lake habitat to climate and land use change to prioritize watershed conservation. Ecosphere 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4172] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Gretchen J. A. Hansen
- Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology University of Minnesota St. Paul Minnesota USA
| | - Kevin E. Wehrly
- Michigan Department of Natural Resources Institute for Fisheries Research Ann Arbor Michigan USA
| | - Kelsey Vitense
- Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology University of Minnesota St. Paul Minnesota USA
| | - Jake R. Walsh
- Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology University of Minnesota St. Paul Minnesota USA
| | - Peter C. Jacobson
- Minnesota Department of Natural Resources Fisheries Research Unit St. Paul Minnesota USA
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12
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Towards the Development of Standardized Bioassays for Corals: Acute Toxicity of the UV Filter Benzophenone-3 to Scleractinian Coral Larvae. TOXICS 2022; 10:toxics10050244. [PMID: 35622657 PMCID: PMC9146638 DOI: 10.3390/toxics10050244] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2022] [Revised: 05/06/2022] [Accepted: 05/07/2022] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
Abstract
Coral reefs have been declining globally at a historically unprecedented rate. Ultraviolet (UV) filters used in sunscreens may contribute to this decline at local scales, which has already led to bans on various organic UV filters in some regions. However, the underlying studies for these bans demonstrated significant flaws in the experimental design due to a lack of validated and standardized testing methods for corals. This study aimed to investigate options for the development of a standard acute toxicity test for the larval stage of scleractinian corals. Planula larvae of two brooding (Leptastrea purpurea and Tubastraea faulkneri) and two spawning (Acropora digitifera and A. millepora) species were exposed to the organic UV filter benzophenone-3 (BP3) for 48 h under static conditions. We observed interspecific variations in toxicity, with A. digitifera being the most sensitive (LC50 = 0.75 µg L−1) and T. faulkneri the least sensitive (LC50 = 2951.24 µg L−1) species. Inhibition of settlement was found to be a useful endpoint leading to an EC50 of 1.84 µg L−1 in L. purpurea larvae. Although the analytical challenges of measuring lipophilic substances in small volume test setups remain, the here applied test design and selected endpoints are suitable for further validation and subsequent standardization.
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13
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Do Invasive Mammal Eradications from Islands Support Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation? CLIMATE 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/cli9120172] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Abstract
Climate change represents a planetary emergency that is exacerbating the loss of native biodiversity. In response, efforts promoting climate change adaptation strategies that improve ecosystem resilience and/or mitigate climate impacts are paramount. Invasive Alien Species are a key threat to islands globally, where strategies such as preventing establishment (biosecurity), and eradication, especially invasive mammals, have proven effective for reducing native biodiversity loss and can also advance ecosystem resilience and create refugia for native species at risk from climate change. Furthermore, there is growing evidence that successful eradications may also contribute to mitigating climate change. Given the cross-sector potential for eradications to reduce climate impacts alongside native biodiversity conservation, we sought to understand when conservation managers and funders explicitly sought to use or fund the eradication of invasive mammals from islands to achieve positive climate outcomes. To provide context, we first summarized available literature of the synergistic relationship between invasive species and climate change, including case studies where invasive mammal eradications served to meet climate adaptation or mitigation solutions. Second, we conducted a systematic review of the literature and eradication-related conference proceedings to identify when these synergistic effects of climate and invasive species were explicitly addressed through eradication practices. Third, we reviewed projects from four large funding entities known to support climate change solutions and/or native biodiversity conservation efforts and identified when eradications were funded in a climate change context. The combined results of our case study summary paired with systematic reviews found that, although eradicating invasive mammals from islands is an effective climate adaptation strategy, island eradications are poorly represented within the climate change adaptation and mitigation funding framework. We believe this is a lost opportunity and encourage eradication practitioners and funders of climate change adaptation to leverage this extremely effective nature-based tool into positive conservation and climate resilience solutions.
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14
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Capdevila P, Noviello N, McRae L, Freeman R, Clements CF. Global patterns of resilience decline in vertebrate populations. Ecol Lett 2021; 25:240-251. [PMID: 34784650 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13927] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2021] [Revised: 10/13/2021] [Accepted: 10/29/2021] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
Maintaining the resilience of natural populations, their ability to resist and recover from disturbance, is crucial to prevent biodiversity loss. However, the lack of appropriate data and quantitative tools has hampered our understanding of the factors determining resilience on a global scale. Here, we quantified the temporal trends of two key components of resilience-resistance and recovery-in >2000 population time-series of >1000 vertebrate species globally. We show that the number of threats to which a population is exposed is the main driver of resilience decline in vertebrate populations. Such declines are driven by a non-uniform loss of different components of resilience (i.e. resistance and recovery). Increased anthropogenic threats accelerating resilience loss through a decline in the recovery ability-but not resistance-of vertebrate populations. These findings suggest we may be underestimating the impacts of global change, highlighting the need to account for the multiple components of resilience in global biodiversity assessments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pol Capdevila
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Nicola Noviello
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Louise McRae
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, UK
| | - Robin Freeman
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, UK
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15
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Zhang P, Zhang H, Wang H, Hilt S, Li C, Yu C, Zhang M, Xu J. Warming alters juvenile carp effects on macrophytes resulting in a shift to turbid conditions in freshwater mesocosms. J Appl Ecol 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.14040] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Peiyu Zhang
- Donghu Experimental Station of Lake Ecosystems State Key Laboratory of Freshwater Ecology and Biotechnology of China Institute of Hydrobiology Chinese Academy of Sciences Wuhan China
| | - Huan Zhang
- Donghu Experimental Station of Lake Ecosystems State Key Laboratory of Freshwater Ecology and Biotechnology of China Institute of Hydrobiology Chinese Academy of Sciences Wuhan China
| | - Huan Wang
- Donghu Experimental Station of Lake Ecosystems State Key Laboratory of Freshwater Ecology and Biotechnology of China Institute of Hydrobiology Chinese Academy of Sciences Wuhan China
| | - Sabine Hilt
- Department of Ecosystem Research Leibniz‐Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB) Berlin Germany
| | - Chao Li
- Hubei Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Pond Aquaculture Engineering Research Center of Green Development for Conventional Aquatic Biological Industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt Ministry of Education College of Fisheries Huazhong Agricultural University Wuhan China
| | - Chen Yu
- Hubei Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Pond Aquaculture Engineering Research Center of Green Development for Conventional Aquatic Biological Industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt Ministry of Education College of Fisheries Huazhong Agricultural University Wuhan China
| | - Min Zhang
- Hubei Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Pond Aquaculture Engineering Research Center of Green Development for Conventional Aquatic Biological Industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt Ministry of Education College of Fisheries Huazhong Agricultural University Wuhan China
| | - Jun Xu
- Donghu Experimental Station of Lake Ecosystems State Key Laboratory of Freshwater Ecology and Biotechnology of China Institute of Hydrobiology Chinese Academy of Sciences Wuhan China
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16
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Liu Y, Yan H, Yang J, Yao M, Yu C, Yin H, Chen M, Gong J. Particle design of the metastable form of clopidogrel hydrogen sulfate by building spherulitic growth operating spaces in binary solvent systems. POWDER TECHNOL 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.powtec.2021.03.017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
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17
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van der Bolt B, van Nes EH. Understanding the critical rate of environmental change for ecosystems, cyanobacteria as an example. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0253003. [PMID: 34143824 PMCID: PMC8213170 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0253003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2021] [Accepted: 05/26/2021] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Recently it has been show that in some ecosystems fast rates of change of environmental drivers may trigger a critical transition, whereas change of the same magnitude but at slower rates would not. So far, few studies describe this phenomenon of rate-induced tipping, while it is important to understand this phenomenon in the light of the ongoing rapid environmental change. Here, we demonstrate rate-induced tipping in a simple model of cyanobacteria with realistic parameter settings. We explain graphically that there is a range of initial conditions at which a gradual increase in environmental conditions can cause a collapse of the population, but only if the change is fast enough. In addition, we show that a pulse in the environmental conditions can cause a temporary collapse, but that is dependent on both the rate and the duration of the pulse. Furthermore, we study whether the autocorrelation of stochastic environmental conditions can influence the probability of inducing rate-tipping. As both the rate of environmental change, and autocorrelation of the environmental variability are increasing in parts of the climate, the probability for rate-induced tipping to occur is likely to increase. Our results imply that, even though the identification of rate sensitive ecosystems in the real world will be challenging, we should incorporate critical rates of change in our ecosystem assessments and management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bregje van der Bolt
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
- * E-mail:
| | - Egbert H. van Nes
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
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18
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Empirical pressure-response relations can benefit assessment of safe operating spaces. Nat Ecol Evol 2021; 5:1078-1079. [DOI: 10.1038/s41559-021-01481-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2020] [Accepted: 05/05/2021] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
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19
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Schoenmakers S, Feudel U. A resilience concept based on system functioning: A dynamical systems perspective. CHAOS (WOODBURY, N.Y.) 2021; 31:053126. [PMID: 34240958 DOI: 10.1063/5.0042755] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2021] [Accepted: 04/21/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
We introduce a new framework for resilience, which is traditionally understood as the ability of a system to absorb disturbances and maintain its state, by proposing a shift from a state-based to a system functioning-based approach to resilience, which takes into account that several different coexisting stable states could fulfill the same functioning. As a consequence, not every regime shift, i.e., transition from one stable state to another, is associated with a lack or loss of resilience. We emphasize the importance of flexibility-the ability of a system to shift between different stable states while still maintaining system functioning. Furthermore, we provide a classification of system responses based on the phenomenological properties of possible disturbances, including the role of their timescales. Therefore, we discern fluctuations, shocks, press disturbances, and trends as possible disturbances. We distinguish between two types of mechanisms of resilience: (i) tolerance and flexibility, which are properties of the system, and (ii) adaptation and transformation, which are processes that alter the system's tolerance and flexibility. Furthermore, we discuss quantitative methods to investigate resilience in model systems based on approaches developed in dynamical systems theory.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah Schoenmakers
- Theoretical Physics/Complex Systems, ICBM, Carl von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg, 26111 Oldenburg, Germany
| | - Ulrike Feudel
- Theoretical Physics/Complex Systems, ICBM, Carl von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg, 26111 Oldenburg, Germany
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20
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High elevation increases the risk of Y chromosome loss in Alpine skink populations with sex reversal. Heredity (Edinb) 2021; 126:805-816. [PMID: 33526811 PMCID: PMC8102603 DOI: 10.1038/s41437-021-00406-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2020] [Revised: 01/07/2021] [Accepted: 01/08/2021] [Indexed: 01/30/2023] Open
Abstract
The view that has genotypic sex determination and environmental sex determination as mutually exclusive states in fishes and reptiles has been contradicted by the discovery that chromosomal sex and environmental influences can co-exist within the same species, hinting at a continuum of intermediate states. Systems where genes and the environment interact to determine sex present the opportunity for sex reversal to occur, where the phenotypic sex is the opposite of that predicted by their sex chromosome complement. The skink Bassiana duperreyi has XX/XY sex chromosomes with sex reversal of the XX genotype to a male phenotype, in laboratory experiments, and in field nests, in response to exposure to cold incubation temperatures. Here we studied the frequency of sex reversal in adult populations of B. duperreyi in response to climatic variation, using elevation as a surrogate for environmental temperatures. We demonstrate sex reversal in the wild for the first time in adults of a reptile species with XX/XY sex determination. The highest frequency of sex reversal occurred at the highest coolest elevation location, Mt Ginini (18.46%) and decreased in frequency to zero with decreasing elevation. We model the impact of this under Fisher's frequency-dependent selection to show that, at the highest elevations, populations risk the loss of the Y chromosome and a transition to temperature-dependent sex determination. This study contributes to our understanding of the risks of extinction from climate change in species subject to sex reversal by temperature, and will provide focus for future research to test on-the-ground management strategies to mitigate the effects of climate in local populations.
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21
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Hollunder RK, Mariotte P, Carrijo TT, Holmgren M, Luber J, Stein-Soares B, Guidoni-Martins KG, Ferreira-Santos K, Scarano FR, Garbin ML. Topography and vegetation structure mediate drought impacts on the understory of the South American Atlantic Forest. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 766:144234. [PMID: 33418256 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144234] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2020] [Revised: 11/20/2020] [Accepted: 11/23/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Droughts have increased in frequency, duration, and severity across most of the tropics but their effect on forest communities remain not fully understood. Here we assessed the effects of a severe El Niño-induced drought event on dominant and low abundance understory plant species and the consequent impacts on ecosystem functions in the South American Atlantic Forest. We established 20 permanent plots with contrasting vegetation structure and topography. In each plot, we measured the stem diameter at breast height (DBH) of every understory woody plant (i.e. 1 to 10 cm stem diameter) before and after a severe 4-year drought event to calculate relative growth and mortality rates after drought. Litter biomass, litter nutrient content and soil nutrients, as well as tree canopy cover, were also quantified. High stem density reduced survival to drought for both dominant and low abundance understory woody species. The growth rate of dominant and low abundance species was lower on steeper slopes during the drought. Dominant species were the main contributor of litter biomass production whereas low abundance species were important drivers of litter quality. Overall, our findings suggest that habitats with low tree density and larger trees on flat areas, such as in valleys, can act as refuges for understory plant species during drought periods. These habitats are resource-rich, providing nutrients and water during unfavorable drought periods and might improve forest resilience to climate change in the long term.
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Affiliation(s)
- Renan Köpp Hollunder
- Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia, IB, CCS, Ilha do Fundão, 21941-970 Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Pierre Mariotte
- Grazing Systems, Agroscope, Route de Duillier 50, 1260 Nyon, Switzerland
| | - Tatiana Tavares Carrijo
- Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, Departamento de Biologia, Centro de Ciências Exatas, Naturais e da Saúde, Alto Universitário, Guararema, 29.500-000 Alegre, ES, Brazil
| | - Milena Holmgren
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 3a, 6708PB Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Jaquelini Luber
- Escola Nacional de Botânica Tropical, Instituto de Pesquisas Jardim Botânico do Rio de Janeiro, 22.460-036 Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Bethina Stein-Soares
- Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, Departamento de Biologia, Centro de Ciências Exatas, Naturais e da Saúde, Alto Universitário, Guararema, 29.500-000 Alegre, ES, Brazil
| | | | - Karina Ferreira-Santos
- Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia, IB, CCS, Ilha do Fundão, 21941-970 Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Fabio Rubio Scarano
- Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia, IB, CCS, Ilha do Fundão, 21941-970 Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Mário Luís Garbin
- Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, Departamento de Biologia, Centro de Ciências Exatas, Naturais e da Saúde, Alto Universitário, Guararema, 29.500-000 Alegre, ES, Brazil.
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22
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Folke C, Polasky S, Rockström J, Galaz V, Westley F, Lamont M, Scheffer M, Österblom H, Carpenter SR, Chapin FS, Seto KC, Weber EU, Crona BI, Daily GC, Dasgupta P, Gaffney O, Gordon LJ, Hoff H, Levin SA, Lubchenco J, Steffen W, Walker BH. Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere. AMBIO 2021; 50:834-869. [PMID: 33715097 PMCID: PMC7955950 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-021-01544-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 67] [Impact Index Per Article: 22.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2020] [Revised: 01/31/2021] [Accepted: 02/10/2021] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed an interconnected and tightly coupled globalized world in rapid change. This article sets the scientific stage for understanding and responding to such change for global sustainability and resilient societies. We provide a systemic overview of the current situation where people and nature are dynamically intertwined and embedded in the biosphere, placing shocks and extreme events as part of this dynamic; humanity has become the major force in shaping the future of the Earth system as a whole; and the scale and pace of the human dimension have caused climate change, rapid loss of biodiversity, growing inequalities, and loss of resilience to deal with uncertainty and surprise. Taken together, human actions are challenging the biosphere foundation for a prosperous development of civilizations. The Anthropocene reality-of rising system-wide turbulence-calls for transformative change towards sustainable futures. Emerging technologies, social innovations, broader shifts in cultural repertoires, as well as a diverse portfolio of active stewardship of human actions in support of a resilient biosphere are highlighted as essential parts of such transformations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carl Folke
- Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden.
- Global Economic Dynamics and the Biosphere Programme (GEDB), Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden.
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
| | | | - Johan Rockström
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Victor Galaz
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | | | - Marten Scheffer
- Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Henrik Österblom
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | | | | | | | - Beatrice I Crona
- Global Economic Dynamics and the Biosphere Programme (GEDB), Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | | | - Owen Gaffney
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Line J Gordon
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Holger Hoff
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | | | | | - Will Steffen
- Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
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23
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Abstract
Telecoupling refers to socioeconomic and environmental interactions between distant places. Telecoupling is becoming even more significant in the increasingly globalized world and it plays a key role in the emergence of major global environmental problems. In particular, it contributes to land degradation and the achievement of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, there is a lack of systematic examination of the impacts of telecoupling on land system change, and how to respond to the undesirable impacts. Based on CiteSpace Software, here we analyze the current research status of telecoupled human–land systems, including publications, major scientific research institutions, and research processes. We explore the impacts of telecoupling on land and how to respond to these impacts. Finally, we propose a framework that is composed of impact identification, system integration, and responses to achieve a win-win situation in telecoupled human–land systems. The framework can help to create a sustainable future for telecoupled human–land systems.
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24
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Manolaki P, Chourabi S, Vogiatzakis I. A rapid qualitative methodology for ecological integrity assessment across a Mediterranean island's landscapes. ECOLOGICAL COMPLEXITY 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2021.100921] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/21/2022]
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25
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Ramírez F, Pennino MG, Albo-Puigserver M, Steenbeek J, Bellido JM, Coll M. SOS small pelagics: A safe operating space for small pelagic fish in the western Mediterranean Sea. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 756:144002. [PMID: 33277012 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2020] [Revised: 10/28/2020] [Accepted: 11/15/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Sustainable fishing practices must ensure human wellbeing by safeguarding the integrity of marine life-supporting systems. Unfortunately, a significant challenge to fisheries management is that sustainable fishing levels can decline, often synergistically, by co-occurring with climate-driven environmental stressors. Within one of the most impacted marine areas in the world, and encompassing a number of highly targeted commercial species, the small pelagic fish community of the western Mediterranean Sea has recently shown signs of collapse. In this study, we identify a worrying coincidence where fishing hotspots for the commercially valuable European sardine Sardina pilchardus and anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus occur in marine areas mostly affected by climate change. To identify these areas, we overlayed detailed, spatially explicit measurements of fishing pressure with the finest-scale maps of cumulative climate change impacts onto these species. According to our results, doubly impacted marine areas largely occur in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, with climate and fisheries mostly affecting European sardine. Reducing local stressors (i.e., fishing pressure) in highly impacted areas may contribute to maintain these communities within a "safe operating space" (SOS), where they remain resilient to climate change. Accordingly, the redistribution and/or reduction of fishing intensity may alleviate pressure in those areas already affected by climate change. Sustainable fishing strategies may benefit, therefore, from the SOS concept and the spatial assessments provided in this study.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francisco Ramírez
- Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC), Department of Renewable Marine Resources, Passeig Maritim de la Barceloneta, 37-49, 08003 Barcelona, Spain.
| | - Maria Grazia Pennino
- Instituto Español de Oceanografía Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo, Subida a Radio Faro, 50-52, 36390 Vigo, Pontevedra, Spain
| | - Marta Albo-Puigserver
- Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC), Department of Renewable Marine Resources, Passeig Maritim de la Barceloneta, 37-49, 08003 Barcelona, Spain
| | - Jeroen Steenbeek
- Ecopath International Initiative (EII) Research Association, Spain
| | - Jose M Bellido
- Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Centro Oceanográfico de Murcia, C/Varadero 1, 30740 San Pedro del Pinatar, Murcia, Spain
| | - Marta Coll
- Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC), Department of Renewable Marine Resources, Passeig Maritim de la Barceloneta, 37-49, 08003 Barcelona, Spain
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26
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Allen J, Gross EM, Courcoul C, Bouletreau S, Compin A, Elger A, Ferriol J, Hilt S, Jassey VEJ, Laviale M, Polst BH, Schmitt-Jansen M, Stibor H, Vijayaraj V, Leflaive J. Disentangling the direct and indirect effects of agricultural runoff on freshwater ecosystems subject to global warming: A microcosm study. WATER RESEARCH 2021; 190:116713. [PMID: 33302039 DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2020.116713] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2020] [Revised: 11/09/2020] [Accepted: 11/29/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Aquatic ecosystems are exposed to multiple stressors such as agricultural run-off (ARO) and climate-change related increase of temperature. We aimed to determine how ARO and the frequency of its input can affect shallow lake ecosystems through direct and indirect effects on primary producers and primary consumers, and whether warming can mitigate or reinforce the impact of ARO. We performed a set of microcosm experiments simulating ARO using a cocktail of three organic pesticides (terbuthylazine, tebuconazole, pirimicarb), copper and nitrate. Two experiments were performed to determine the direct effect of ARO on primary producers (submerged macrophytes, periphyton and phytoplankton) and on the grazing snail Lymnaea stagnalis, respectively. Three different ARO concentrations added as single doses or as multiple pulses at two different temperatures (22°C and 26°C) were applied. In a third experiment, primary producers and consumers were exposed together to allow trophic interactions. When functional groups were exposed alone, ARO had a direct positive effect on phytoplankton and a strong negative effect on L. stagnalis. When exposed together, primary producer responses were contrasting, as the negative effect of ARO on grazers led to an indirect positive effect on periphyton. Periphyton in turn exerted a strong control on phytoplankton, leading to an indirect negative effect of ARO on phytoplankton. Macrophytes showed little response to the stressors. Multiple pulse exposure increased the effect of ARO on L. stagnalis and periphyton when compared with the same quantity of ARO added as a single dose. The increase in temperature had only limited effects. Our results highlight the importance of indirect effects of stressors, here mediated by grazers and periphyton, and the frequency of the ARO input in aquatic ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joey Allen
- Laboratoire écologie fonctionnelle et environnement, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, INPT, UPS, Toulouse, France; Université de Lorraine, CNRS, LIEC, F-57000 Metz, France.
| | | | - Camille Courcoul
- Laboratoire écologie fonctionnelle et environnement, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, INPT, UPS, Toulouse, France
| | - Stéphanie Bouletreau
- Laboratoire écologie fonctionnelle et environnement, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, INPT, UPS, Toulouse, France
| | - Arthur Compin
- Laboratoire écologie fonctionnelle et environnement, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, INPT, UPS, Toulouse, France
| | - Arnaud Elger
- Laboratoire écologie fonctionnelle et environnement, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, INPT, UPS, Toulouse, France
| | - Jessica Ferriol
- Laboratoire écologie fonctionnelle et environnement, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, INPT, UPS, Toulouse, France
| | - Sabine Hilt
- Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany
| | - Vincent E J Jassey
- Laboratoire écologie fonctionnelle et environnement, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, INPT, UPS, Toulouse, France
| | - Martin Laviale
- Université de Lorraine, CNRS, LIEC, F-57000 Metz, France
| | - Bastian H Polst
- Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Dept of Bioanalytical Ecotoxicology, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Mechthild Schmitt-Jansen
- Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Dept of Bioanalytical Ecotoxicology, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Herwig Stibor
- Department of Biology II, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich, Planegg-Martinsried, Germany
| | | | - Joséphine Leflaive
- Laboratoire écologie fonctionnelle et environnement, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, INPT, UPS, Toulouse, France
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27
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van der Heide T, Angelini C, de Fouw J, Eklöf JS. Facultative mutualisms: A double-edged sword for foundation species in the face of anthropogenic global change. Ecol Evol 2021; 11:29-44. [PMID: 33437413 PMCID: PMC7790659 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.7044] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2020] [Revised: 10/18/2020] [Accepted: 10/28/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Ecosystems worldwide depend on habitat-forming foundation species that often facilitate themselves with increasing density and patch size, while also engaging in facultative mutualisms. Anthropogenic global change (e.g., climate change, eutrophication, overharvest, land-use change), however, is causing rapid declines of foundation species-structured ecosystems, often typified by sudden collapse. Although disruption of obligate mutualisms involving foundation species is known to precipitate collapse (e.g., coral bleaching), how facultative mutualisms (i.e., context-dependent, nonbinding reciprocal interactions) affect ecosystem resilience is uncertain. Here, we synthesize recent advancements and combine these with model analyses supported by real-world examples, to propose that facultative mutualisms may pose a double-edged sword for foundation species. We suggest that by amplifying self-facilitative feedbacks by foundation species, facultative mutualisms can increase foundation species' resistance to stress from anthropogenic impact. Simultaneously, however, mutualism dependency can generate or exacerbate bistability, implying a potential for sudden collapse when the mutualism's buffering capacity is exceeded, while recovery requires conditions to improve beyond the initial collapse point (hysteresis). Thus, our work emphasizes the importance of acknowledging facultative mutualisms for conservation and restoration of foundation species-structured ecosystems, but highlights the potential risk of relying on mutualisms in the face of global change. We argue that significant caveats remain regarding the determination of these feedbacks, and suggest empirical manipulation across stress gradients as a way forward to identify related nonlinear responses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tjisse van der Heide
- Department of Coastal SystemsRoyal Netherlands Institute of Sea Research and Utrecht UniversityDen BurgThe Netherlands
- Conservation Ecology GroupGroningen Institute for Evolutionary Life SciencesUniversity of GroningenGroningenThe Netherlands
| | - Christine Angelini
- Department of Environmental Engineering SciencesEngineering School for Sustainable Infrastructure and the EnvironmentUniversity of FloridaGainesvilleFLUSA
| | - Jimmy de Fouw
- Department of Aquatic Ecology & Environmental BiologyInstitute for Water and Wetland ResearchRadboud UniversityNijmegenThe Netherlands
| | - Johan S. Eklöf
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant SciencesStockholm UniversityStockholmSweden
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28
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Jiang C, Zhang H, Zhao L, Yang Z, Wang X, Yang L, Wen M, Geng S, Zeng Q, Wang J. Unfolding the effectiveness of ecological restoration programs in combating land degradation: Achievements, causes, and implications. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 748:141552. [PMID: 32827896 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141552] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2020] [Revised: 08/05/2020] [Accepted: 08/05/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Land degradation is one of the most serious environmental problems worldwide. To combat land degradation, China has implemented a series of ecological restoration programs (ERPs). This study selected the northern dryland of China as a case study to examine the efficiency of ERPs, and the response of soil loss to afforestation efforts and climatic conditions was discussed using the principles from the ecological theory of non-linear ecosystem dynamics. Owing to the combined impacts of declining wind speed and rapid vegetation restoration, the soil erosion for the entire region was substantially reduced from 1990 to 2015. However, the rainfall fluctuated considerably, particularly for the period from the late 1990s to early 2000s. Several drought events to some extent inhibited vegetation growth and further offset afforestation efforts, resulting in degradations in vegetation structure and soil retention function, which have been aggravating soil erosion since 2005. In certain representative sandstorm areas, limited increase in rainfall was not enough to promote vegetation growth, and therefore the vegetation cover did not present increasing trends and, in some cases, even declined significantly. The responses in terms of land degradation to climatic conditions and afforestation efforts behaved in a non-linear dynamic manner, providing essential insights into appropriate timings, climate-induced windows of opportunity, and risk in recovering and sustaining ecosystems, and eventually moving towards the land degradation neutrality (LDN) target. The climate-induced windows of opportunity and risk are critical in identifying the time for starting human interventions to mitigate and halt land degradation. Meanwhile, effective investment actions should be taken according to existing environmental conditions and critical thresholds, to achieve LDN at minimum risk and cost.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chong Jiang
- Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application, Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070, PR China; Key Lab of Guangdong for Utilization of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System, Guangzhou 510070, PR China; School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane 4072, Australia
| | - Haiyan Zhang
- Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, PR China
| | - Lingling Zhao
- Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application, Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070, PR China; Key Lab of Guangdong for Utilization of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System, Guangzhou 510070, PR China.
| | - Zhiyuan Yang
- Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia
| | - Xinchi Wang
- School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, PR China
| | - Long Yang
- Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application, Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070, PR China; Key Lab of Guangdong for Utilization of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System, Guangzhou 510070, PR China
| | - Meili Wen
- Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application, Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070, PR China; Key Lab of Guangdong for Utilization of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System, Guangzhou 510070, PR China
| | - Shoubao Geng
- Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application, Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070, PR China; Key Lab of Guangdong for Utilization of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System, Guangzhou 510070, PR China
| | - Qiao Zeng
- Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application, Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070, PR China; Key Lab of Guangdong for Utilization of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System, Guangzhou 510070, PR China
| | - Jun Wang
- Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application, Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070, PR China; Key Lab of Guangdong for Utilization of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System, Guangzhou 510070, PR China
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Vaughan IP, Gotelli NJ. Using Climatic Credits to Pay the Climatic Debt. Trends Ecol Evol 2020; 36:104-112. [PMID: 33129587 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2020.10.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2020] [Revised: 08/13/2020] [Accepted: 10/01/2020] [Indexed: 01/20/2023]
Abstract
Many organisms are accumulating climatic debt as they respond more slowly than expected to rising global temperatures, leading to disequilibrium of species diversity with contemporary climate. The resulting transient dynamics are complex and may cause overoptimistic biodiversity assessments. We propose a simple budget framework to integrate climatic debt with two classes of intervention: (i) climatic credits that pay some of the debt, reducing the overall biological change required to reach a new equilibrium; and (ii) options to adjust the debt repayment rate, either making a system more responsive by increasing the rate or temporarily reducing the rate to buy more time for local adaptation and credit implementation. We illustrate how this budget can be created and highlight limitations and challenges.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ian P Vaughan
- School of Biosciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF10 3AX, UK.
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30
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Wijgerde T, van Ballegooijen M, Nijland R, van der Loos L, Kwadijk C, Osinga R, Murk A, Slijkerman D. Adding insult to injury: Effects of chronic oxybenzone exposure and elevated temperature on two reef-building corals. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 733:139030. [PMID: 32446051 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2020] [Revised: 04/21/2020] [Accepted: 04/25/2020] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Coral bleaching due to global warming currently is the largest threat to coral reefs, which may be exacerbated by altered water quality. Elevated levels of the UV filter oxybenzone in coastal waters as a result of sunscreen use have recently been demonstrated. We studied the effect of chronic oxybenzone exposure and elevated water temperature on coral health. Microcolonies of Stylophora pistillata and Acropora tenuis were cultured in 20 flow-through aquaria, of which 10 were exposed to oxybenzone at a field-relevant concentration of ~0.06 μg L-1 at 26 °C. After two weeks, half of the corals experienced a heat wave culminating at 33 °C. All S. pistillata colonies survived the heat wave, although heat reduced growth and zooxanthellae density, irrespective of oxybenzone. Acropora tenuis survival decreased to 0% at 32 °C, and oxybenzone accelerated mortality. Oxybenzone and heat significantly impacted photosynthetic yield in both species, causing a 5% and 22-33% decrease, respectively. In addition, combined oxybenzone and temperature stress altered the abundance of five bacterial families in the microbiome of S. pistillata. Our results suggest that oxybenzone adds insult to injury by further weakening corals in the face of global warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tim Wijgerde
- Wageningen University and Research, Marine Animal Ecology, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Mike van Ballegooijen
- Wageningen University and Research, Marine Animal Ecology, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Reindert Nijland
- Wageningen University and Research, Marine Animal Ecology, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Luna van der Loos
- Wageningen University and Research, Marine Animal Ecology, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Christiaan Kwadijk
- Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen Marine Research, P.O. Box 68, 1970 AB IJmuiden, the Netherlands
| | - Ronald Osinga
- Wageningen University and Research, Marine Animal Ecology, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Albertinka Murk
- Wageningen University and Research, Marine Animal Ecology, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Diana Slijkerman
- Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen Marine Research, P.O. Box 57, 1780 AB Den Helder, the Netherlands.
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31
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Srivastava DS, Céréghino R, Trzcinski MK, MacDonald AAM, Marino NAC, Mercado DA, Leroy C, Corbara B, Romero GQ, Farjalla VF, Barberis IM, Dézerald O, Hammill E, Atwood TB, Piccoli GCO, Ospina-Bautista F, Carrias JF, Leal JS, Montero G, Antiqueira PAP, Freire R, Realpe E, Amundrud SL, de Omena PM, Campos ABA. Ecological response to altered rainfall differs across the Neotropics. Ecology 2020; 101:e02984. [PMID: 31958151 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.2984] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2019] [Revised: 10/17/2019] [Accepted: 11/12/2019] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
There is growing recognition that ecosystems may be more impacted by infrequent extreme climatic events than by changes in mean climatic conditions. This has led to calls for experiments that explore the sensitivity of ecosystems over broad ranges of climatic parameter space. However, because such response surface experiments have so far been limited in geographic and biological scope, it is not clear if differences between studies reflect geographic location or the ecosystem component considered. In this study, we manipulated rainfall entering tank bromeliads in seven sites across the Neotropics, and characterized the response of the aquatic ecosystem in terms of invertebrate functional composition, biological stocks (total invertebrate biomass, bacterial density) and ecosystem fluxes (decomposition, carbon, nitrogen). Of these response types, invertebrate functional composition was the most sensitive, even though, in some sites, the species pool had a high proportion of drought-tolerant families. Total invertebrate biomass was universally insensitive to rainfall change because of statistical averaging of divergent responses between functional groups. The response of invertebrate functional composition to rain differed between geographical locations because (1) the effect of rainfall on bromeliad hydrology differed between sites, and invertebrates directly experience hydrology not rainfall and (2) the taxonomic composition of some functional groups differed between sites, and families differed in their response to bromeliad hydrology. These findings suggest that it will be difficult to establish thresholds of "safe ecosystem functioning" when ecosystem components differ in their sensitivity to climatic variables, and such thresholds may not be broadly applicable over geographic space. In particular, ecological forecast horizons for climate change may be spatially restricted in systems where habitat properties mediate climatic impacts, and those, like the tropics, with high spatial turnover in species composition.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diane S Srivastava
- Departmetn of Zoology and Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Régis Céréghino
- Ecolab, Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement, CNRS, UPS, INPT, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, 21941-901, France
| | - M Kurtis Trzcinski
- Ecolab, Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement, CNRS, UPS, INPT, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, 21941-901, France
| | - A Andrew M MacDonald
- Departmetn of Zoology and Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, V6T 1Z4, Canada.,Ecolab, Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement, CNRS, UPS, INPT, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, 21941-901, France
| | - Nicholas A C Marino
- Departamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Biologia, Centro de Ciências da Saúde, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Ilha do Fundão, 68020, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.,Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Ilha do Fundão, 68020, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Dimaris Acosta Mercado
- Department of Biology, University of Puerto Rico Mayaguez Campus, Mayaguez, 00681, Puerto Rico, USA
| | - Céline Leroy
- AMAP, IRD, CIRAD, CNRS, INRA, Université Montpellier, Montpellier, CEDEX-5, 34095, France.,ECOFOG (AgroParisTech, CIRAD, CNRS, INRA, Université de Guyane, Université des Antilles), 97379, Kourou, France
| | - Bruno Corbara
- CNRS, LMGE (Laboratoire Microorganismes: Génome et Environnement), Université Clermont-Auvergne, F-63000, Clermont-Ferrand, France
| | - Gustavo Q Romero
- Laboratory of Multitrophic Interactions and Biodiversity, Department of Animal Biology, Institute of Biology, University of Campinas (UNICAMP), 13083-862, Campinas, SP, Brazil
| | - Vinicius F Farjalla
- Departamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Biologia, Centro de Ciências da Saúde, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Ilha do Fundão, 68020, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Ignacio M Barberis
- Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias, Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias Agrarias de Rosario, IICAR-CONICET-UNR, Universidad Nacional de Rosario, S2125ZAA, Zavalla, Argentina
| | - Olivier Dézerald
- ECOFOG (AgroParisTech, CIRAD, CNRS, INRA, Université de Guyane, Université des Antilles), 97379, Kourou, France.,Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Environnements Continentaux (LIEC)-CNRS UMR 7360, Université de Lorraine, Campus Bridoux, 57070, Metz, France.,INRA, Agrocampus-Ouest, Ecology and Ecosystem Health, 65 rue de Saint-Brieuc, F-35042, Rennes, France
| | - Edd Hammill
- Departmetn of Zoology and Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, V6T 1Z4, Canada.,Department of Watershed Sciences and the Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, 84322, USA
| | - Trisha B Atwood
- Department of Watershed Sciences and the Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, 84322, USA.,Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Gustavo C O Piccoli
- Department of Zoology and Botany, University of São Paulo State (UNESP/IBILCE), 15054 - 000, São José do Rio Preto, SP, Brazil
| | - Fabiola Ospina-Bautista
- Department of Biological Sciences, Andes University, Bogotá, 111711, Colombia.,Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas, Universidad de Caldas, Caldas, 170001, Colombia
| | - Jean-François Carrias
- CNRS, LMGE (Laboratoire Microorganismes: Génome et Environnement), Université Clermont-Auvergne, F-63000, Clermont-Ferrand, France
| | - Juliana S Leal
- Departamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Biologia, Centro de Ciências da Saúde, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Ilha do Fundão, 68020, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Guillermo Montero
- Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias, Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias Agrarias de Rosario, IICAR-CONICET-UNR, Universidad Nacional de Rosario, S2125ZAA, Zavalla, Argentina
| | - Pablo A P Antiqueira
- Laboratory of Multitrophic Interactions and Biodiversity, Department of Animal Biology, Institute of Biology, University of Campinas (UNICAMP), 13083-862, Campinas, SP, Brazil
| | - Rodrigo Freire
- Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias, Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias Agrarias de Rosario, IICAR-CONICET-UNR, Universidad Nacional de Rosario, S2125ZAA, Zavalla, Argentina
| | - Emilio Realpe
- Department of Biological Sciences, Andes University, Bogotá, 111711, Colombia
| | - Sarah L Amundrud
- Departmetn of Zoology and Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Paula M de Omena
- Laboratory of Multitrophic Interactions and Biodiversity, Department of Animal Biology, Institute of Biology, University of Campinas (UNICAMP), 13083-862, Campinas, SP, Brazil
| | - Alice B A Campos
- Departamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Biologia, Centro de Ciências da Saúde, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Ilha do Fundão, 68020, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
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Hoover DL, Bestelmeyer B, Grimm NB, Huxman TE, Reed SC, Sala O, Seastedt TR, Wilmer H, Ferrenberg S. Traversing the Wasteland: A Framework for Assessing Ecological Threats to Drylands. Bioscience 2019. [DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biz126] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Drylands cover 41% of the Earth's terrestrial surface, play a critical role in global ecosystem function, and are home to over two billion people. Like other biomes, drylands face increasing pressure from global change, but many of these ecosystems are close to tipping points, which, if crossed, can lead to abrupt transitions and persistent degraded states. Their limited but variable precipitation, low soil fertility, and low productivity have given rise to a perception that drylands are wastelands, needing societal intervention to bring value to them. Negative perceptions of drylands synergistically combine with conflicting sociocultural values regarding what constitutes a threat to these ecosystems. In the present article, we propose a framework for assessing threats to dryland ecosystems and suggest we must also combat the negative perceptions of drylands in order to preserve the ecosystem services that they offer.
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Affiliation(s)
- David L Hoover
- US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Research Service (ARS) Rangeland Resources and Systems Research Unit, Crops Research Laboratory, Fort Collins, Colorado
| | | | - Nancy B Grimm
- School of Life Sciences, Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona
| | - Travis E Huxman
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine
| | - Sasha C Reed
- US Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Moab, Utah
| | - Osvaldo Sala
- Global Drylands Center, Arizona State University, Tempe
| | - Timothy R Seastedt
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder
| | - Hailey Wilmer
- US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Research Service (ARS) Rangeland Resources and Systems Research Unit, Crops Research Laboratory, Fort Collins, Colorado
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Lefebvre G, Redmond L, Germain C, Palazzi E, Terzago S, Willm L, Poulin B. Predicting the vulnerability of seasonally-flooded wetlands to climate change across the Mediterranean Basin. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2019; 692:546-555. [PMID: 31351296 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.263] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2019] [Revised: 07/16/2019] [Accepted: 07/17/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Wetlands have been declining worldwide over the last century with climate change becoming an additional pressure, especially in regions already characterized by water deficit. This paper investigates how climate change will affect the values and functions of Mediterranean seasonally-flooded wetlands with emergent vegetation. We simulated the future evolution of water balance, wetland condition and water volumes necessary to maintain these ecosystems at mid- and late- 21st century, in 229 localities around the Mediterranean basin. We considered future projections of the relevant climatic variables under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios assuming a stabilization (RCP4.5) or increase (RCP 8.5) of greenhouse gases emissions. We found similar increases of water deficits at most localities around 2050 under both RCP scenarios. By 2100, however, water deficits under RCP 8.5 are expected to be more severe and will impact all localities. Simulations performed under current conditions show that 97% of localities could have wetland habitats in good state. By 2050, however, this proportion would decrease to 81% and 68% under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, decreasing further to 52% and 27% by 2100. Our results suggest that wetlands can persist with up to a 400 mm decrease in annual precipitation. Such resilience to climate change is attributed to the semi-permanent character of wetlands (lower evaporation on dry ground) and their capacity to act as reservoir (higher precipitation expected in some countries during winter). Countries at highest risk of wetland degradation and loss are Algeria, Morocco, Portugal and Spain. Degradation of wetlands with emergent vegetation will negatively affect their biodiversity and the services they provide by eliminating animal refuges and primary resources for industry and tourism. A sound strategy to preserve these wetlands would consist of proactive management to reduce non-climate stressors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gaëtan Lefebvre
- Tour du Valat, Research Institute for the Conservation of Mediterranean Wetlands, Le Sambuc, 13200 Arles, France.
| | - Lauren Redmond
- Tour du Valat, Research Institute for the Conservation of Mediterranean Wetlands, Le Sambuc, 13200 Arles, France
| | - Christophe Germain
- Tour du Valat, Research Institute for the Conservation of Mediterranean Wetlands, Le Sambuc, 13200 Arles, France.
| | - Elisa Palazzi
- Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council (ISAC-CNR), Corso Fiume 4, 10133 Torino, Italy.
| | - Silvia Terzago
- Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council (ISAC-CNR), Corso Fiume 4, 10133 Torino, Italy.
| | - Loïc Willm
- Tour du Valat, Research Institute for the Conservation of Mediterranean Wetlands, Le Sambuc, 13200 Arles, France.
| | - Brigitte Poulin
- Tour du Valat, Research Institute for the Conservation of Mediterranean Wetlands, Le Sambuc, 13200 Arles, France.
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Matsuzaki SS, Kohzu A, Kadoya T, Watanabe M, Osawa T, Fukaya K, Komatsu K, Kondo N, Yamaguchi H, Ando H, Shimotori K, Nakagawa M, Kizuka T, Yoshioka A, Sasai T, Saigusa N, Matsushita B, Takamura N. Role of wetlands in mitigating the trade‐off between crop production and water quality in agricultural landscapes. Ecosphere 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2918] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Shin‐ichiro S. Matsuzaki
- Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Studies National Institute for Environmental Studies 16‐2 Onogawa Tsukuba Ibaraki 305‐8506 Japan
- Center for Limnology University of Wisconsin‐Madison 680 North Park Street Madison Wisconsin 53706 USA
| | - Ayato Kohzu
- Center for Regional Environmental Research National Institute for Environmental Studies 16‐2 Onogawa Tsukuba Ibaraki 305‐8506 Japan
| | - Taku Kadoya
- Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Studies National Institute for Environmental Studies 16‐2 Onogawa Tsukuba Ibaraki 305‐8506 Japan
| | - Mirai Watanabe
- Center for Regional Environmental Research National Institute for Environmental Studies 16‐2 Onogawa Tsukuba Ibaraki 305‐8506 Japan
| | - Takeshi Osawa
- Graduate School of Urban Environmental Sciences Tokyo Metropolitan University Minami‐Osawa 1‐1 Hachiouji Tokyo 192‐0397 Japan
| | - Keiichi Fukaya
- Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Studies National Institute for Environmental Studies 16‐2 Onogawa Tsukuba Ibaraki 305‐8506 Japan
- The Institute of Statistical Mathematics 10‐3 Midori‐cho Tachikawa Tokyo 190‐8562 Japan
| | - Kazuhiro Komatsu
- Center for Regional Environmental Research National Institute for Environmental Studies 16‐2 Onogawa Tsukuba Ibaraki 305‐8506 Japan
| | - Natsuko Kondo
- Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Studies National Institute for Environmental Studies 16‐2 Onogawa Tsukuba Ibaraki 305‐8506 Japan
| | - Haruyo Yamaguchi
- Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Studies National Institute for Environmental Studies 16‐2 Onogawa Tsukuba Ibaraki 305‐8506 Japan
| | - Haruko Ando
- Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Studies National Institute for Environmental Studies 16‐2 Onogawa Tsukuba Ibaraki 305‐8506 Japan
| | - Koichi Shimotori
- Lake Biwa Branch Office National Institute for Environmental Studies 5‐34 Yanagasaki Ohtsu Shiga 520‐0022 Japan
| | - Megumi Nakagawa
- Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Studies National Institute for Environmental Studies 16‐2 Onogawa Tsukuba Ibaraki 305‐8506 Japan
| | - Toshikazu Kizuka
- Institute of Environmental Sciences Hokkaido Research Organization Kita19‐jo Nishi 12‐chome, Kita‐ku Sapporo Hokkaido 060‐0819 Japan
| | - Akira Yoshioka
- Fukushima Branch National Institute for Environmental Studies 10‐2 Fukuasaku, Miharu Tamura Fukushima 963‐7700 Japan
| | - Takahiro Sasai
- Department of Geophysics Graduate School of Science Tohoku University 6‐3 Aramaki Aza‐Aoba, Aoba‐ku Sendai 980‐8578 Japan
| | - Nobuko Saigusa
- Center for Global Environmental Research National Institute for Environmental Studies 16‐2 Onogawa Tsukuba Ibaraki 305‐8506 Japan
| | - Bunkei Matsushita
- Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Tsukuba Tennoudai 1‐1‐1 Tsukuba Ibaraki 305‐8572 Japan
| | - Noriko Takamura
- Lake Biwa Branch Office National Institute for Environmental Studies 5‐34 Yanagasaki Ohtsu Shiga 520‐0022 Japan
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Unravelling the complex nature of resilience factors and their changes between early and later adolescence. BMC Med 2019; 17:203. [PMID: 31722707 PMCID: PMC6854636 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-019-1430-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2019] [Accepted: 09/19/2019] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Childhood adversity (CA) is strongly associated with mental health problems. Resilience factors (RFs) reduce mental health problems following CA. Yet, knowledge on the nature of RFs is scarce. Therefore, we examined RF mean levels, RF interrelations, RF-distress pathways, and their changes between early (age 14) and later adolescence (age 17). METHODS We studied 10 empirically supported RFs in adolescents with (CA+; n = 631) and without CA (CA-; n = 499), using network psychometrics. RESULTS All inter-personal RFs (e.g. friendships) showed stable mean levels between age 14 and 17, and three of seven intra-personal RFs (e.g. distress tolerance) changed in a similar manner in the two groups. The CA+ group had lower RFs and higher distress at both ages. Thus, CA does not seem to inhibit RF changes, but to increase the risk of persistently lower RFs. At age 14, but not 17, the RF network of the CA+ group was less positively connected, suggesting that RFs are less likely to enhance each other than in the CA- group. Those findings underpin the notion that CA has a predominantly strong proximal effect. RF-distress pathways did not differ in strength between the CA+ and the CA- group, which suggests that RFs have a similarly protective strength in the two groups. Yet, as RFs are lower and distress is higher, RF-distress pathways may overall be less advantageous in the CA+ group. Most RF interrelations and RF-distress pathways were stable between age 14 and 17, which may help explain why exposure to CA is frequently found to have a lasting impact on mental health. CONCLUSIONS Our findings not only shed light on the nature and changes of RFs between early and later adolescence, but also offer some accounts for why exposure to CA has stronger proximal effects and is often found to have a lasting impact on mental health.
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36
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Fernández-Ayuso A, Aguilera H, Guardiola-Albert C, Rodríguez-Rodríguez M, Heredia J, Naranjo-Fernández N. Unraveling the Hydrological Behavior of a Coastal Pond in Doñana National Park (Southwest Spain). GROUND WATER 2019; 57:895-906. [PMID: 31115912 DOI: 10.1111/gwat.12906] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2018] [Revised: 05/14/2019] [Accepted: 05/20/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Time series analysis methods have been used to detect behavioral patterns in a set of nine time series. These series contained information in a 3-h time step about meteorological, hydrological and tidal data of a sand dune pond area located in Doñana National Park in the southwest of Spain. The methods used, such as wavelet analysis and additive seasonal decomposition, had never been applied before in the types of ecosystems studied. These approaches have improved the current knowledge of the conceptual model of the Santa Olalla pond system, the only system with a permanent hydroperiod located in this protected area. In addition, complex surface water-groundwater interactions, not visible through descriptive methods, have been distinguished to have a strong seasonal component. Finally, we evaluated the effect of pumping activity in a nearby coastal resort on the water supply of the Santa Olalla pond system. Although direct damage to this sand dune pond has not yet been identified, special attention must be paid in order to maintain groundwater inputs that are integral to maintaining its current status.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Héctor Aguilera
- Spanish Geological Survey, Rios Rosas, 23. 28003, Madrid, Spain
| | | | | | - Javier Heredia
- Spanish Geological Survey, Rios Rosas, 23. 28003, Madrid, Spain
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Haller-Bull V, Bode M. Superadditive and subadditive dynamics are not inherent to the types of interacting threat. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0211444. [PMID: 31442226 PMCID: PMC6707635 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0211444] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2019] [Accepted: 07/12/2019] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Species and ecosystems usually face more than one threat. The damage caused by these multiple threats can accumulate nonlinearly: either subadditively, when the joint damage of combined threats is less than the damages of both threats individually added together, or superadditively, when the joint damage is greater than the two individual damages added together. These additivity dynamics are commonly attributed to the nature of the threatening processes, but conflicting empirical observations challenge this assumption. Here, we use a theoretical model to demonstrate that the additivity of threats can change with different magnitudes of threat impacts (effect of a threat on the population parameter, like growth rate). We use a harvested single-species population model to integrate the effects of multiple threats on equilibrium abundance. Our results reveal that threats do not always display consistent additive behavior, even in simple systems. Instead, their additivity depends on the magnitudes of the impacts of two threats, and the population parameter that is impacted by each threat. In our model specifically, when multiple threats have a low impact on the growth rate of a population, they display superadditive dynamics. In contrast, threats that impact the species' carrying capacity are always additive or subadditive. These dynamics can be understood by reference to the curvature of the relationship between a given population parameter (e.g., growth) and equilibrium population size. Our results suggest that management actions can achieve amplified benefits if they target low-amplitude threats that affect the growth rate, since these will be in a superadditive phase. More generally, our results suggest that cumulative impact theory should focus more than previously on the magnitude of the impact on the population parameter, and should be cautious about attributing additive dynamics to particular threat combinations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vanessa Haller-Bull
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia
- AIMS@JCU, Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Australia
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
- * E-mail:
| | - Michael Bode
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
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Cannon SE, Donner SD, Fenner D, Beger M. The relationship between macroalgae taxa and human disturbance on central Pacific coral reefs. MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN 2019; 145:161-173. [PMID: 31590773 DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2019.05.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2018] [Revised: 05/08/2019] [Accepted: 05/12/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Climate change and human disturbance threatens coral reefs across the Pacific, yet there is little consensus on what characterizes a "healthy" reef. Benthic cover, particularly low coral cover and high macroalgae cover, are often used as an indicator of reef degradation, despite uncertainty about the typical algal community compositions associated with either near-pristine or damaged reefs. In this study, we examine differences in coral and algal community compositions and their response to human disturbance and past heat stress, by analysing 25 sites along a gradient of human disturbance in Majuro and Arno Atolls of the Republic of the Marshall Islands. Our results show that total macroalgae cover indicators of reef degradation may mask the influence of local human disturbance, with different taxa responding to disturbance differently. Identifying macroalgae to a lower taxonomic level (e.g. the genus level) is critical for a more accurate measure of Pacific coral reef health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sara E Cannon
- Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, 1984 West Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada.
| | - Simon D Donner
- Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, 1984 West Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada
| | | | - Maria Beger
- School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
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Nijp JJ, Temme AJ, van Voorn GA, Kooistra L, Hengeveld GM, Soons MB, Teuling AJ, Wallinga J. Spatial early warning signals for impending regime shifts: A practical framework for application in real-world landscapes. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2019; 25:1905-1921. [PMID: 30761695 PMCID: PMC6849843 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14591] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2018] [Accepted: 01/31/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Prediction of ecosystem response to global environmental change is a pressing scientific challenge of major societal relevance. Many ecosystems display nonlinear responses to environmental change, and may even undergo practically irreversible 'regime shifts' that initiate ecosystem collapse. Recently, early warning signals based on spatiotemporal metrics have been proposed for the identification of impending regime shifts. The rapidly increasing availability of remotely sensed data provides excellent opportunities to apply such model-based spatial early warning signals in the real world, to assess ecosystem resilience and identify impending regime shifts induced by global change. Such information would allow land-managers and policy makers to interfere and avoid catastrophic shifts, but also to induce regime shifts that move ecosystems to a desired state. Here, we show that the application of spatial early warning signals in real-world landscapes presents unique and unexpected challenges, and may result in misleading conclusions when employed without careful consideration of the spatial data and processes at hand. We identify key practical and theoretical issues and provide guidelines for applying spatial early warning signals in heterogeneous, real-world landscapes based on literature review and examples from real-world data. Major identified issues include (1) spatial heterogeneity in real-world landscapes may enhance reversibility of regime shifts and boost landscape-level resilience to environmental change (2) ecosystem states are often difficult to define, while these definitions have great impact on spatial early warning signals and (3) spatial environmental variability and socio-economic factors may affect spatial patterns, spatial early warning signals and associated regime shift predictions. We propose a novel framework, shifting from an ecosystem perspective towards a landscape approach. The framework can be used to identify conditions under which resilience assessment with spatial remotely sensed data may be successful, to support well-informed application of spatial early warning signals, and to improve predictions of ecosystem responses to global environmental change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jelmer J. Nijp
- Soil Geography and Landscape group, Department of Environmental SciencesWageningen University & ResearchWageningenthe Netherlands
- KWR Watercycle Research Institute, Ecohydrology GroupNieuwegeinthe Netherlands
| | - Arnaud J.A.M. Temme
- Soil Geography and Landscape group, Department of Environmental SciencesWageningen University & ResearchWageningenthe Netherlands
- Geography DepartmentKansas State UniversityManhattanKansas
| | | | - Lammert Kooistra
- Laboratory of Geo‐information Science and Remote Sensing, Department of Environmental SciencesWageningen University & ResearchWageningenthe Netherlands
| | | | - Merel B. Soons
- Ecology and Biodiversity group, Institute of Environmental Biology, Biology DepartmentUtrecht UniversityUtrechtthe Netherlands
| | - Adriaan J. Teuling
- Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management Group, Department of Environmental SciencesWageningen University & ResearchWageningenthe Netherlands
| | - Jakob Wallinga
- Soil Geography and Landscape group, Department of Environmental SciencesWageningen University & ResearchWageningenthe Netherlands
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40
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Mariani M, Fletcher MS, Haberle S, Chin H, Zawadzki A, Jacobsen G. Climate change reduces resilience to fire in subalpine rainforests. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2019; 25:2030-2042. [PMID: 30912234 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14609] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2018] [Accepted: 01/29/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is affecting the distribution of species and the functioning of ecosystems. For species that are slow growing and poorly dispersed, climate change can force a lag between the distributions of species and the geographic distributions of their climatic envelopes, exposing species to the risk of extinction. Climate also governs the resilience of species and ecosystems to disturbance, such as wildfire. Here we use species distribution modelling and palaeoecology to assess and test the impact of vegetation-climate disequilibrium on the resilience of an endangered fire-sensitive rainforest community to fires. First, we modelled the probability of occurrence of Athrotaxis spp. and Nothofagus gunnii rainforest in Tasmania (hereon "montane rainforest") as a function of climate. We then analysed three pollen and charcoal records spanning the last 7,500 cal year BP from within both high (n = 1) and low (n = 2) probability of occurrence areas. Our study indicates that climatic change between 3,000 and 4,000 cal year bp induced a disequilibrium between montane rainforests and climate that drove a loss of resilience of these communities. Current and future climate change are likely to shift the geographic distribution of the climatic envelopes of this plant community further, suggesting that current high-resilience locations will face a reduction in resilience. Coupled with the forecast of increasing fire activity in southern temperate regions, this heralds a significant threat to this and other slow growing, poorly dispersed and fire sensitive forest systems that are common in the southern mid to high latitudes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michela Mariani
- School of Geography, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
| | | | - Simon Haberle
- Department of Archaeology and Natural History, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - Hahjung Chin
- Department of Archaeology and Natural History, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - Atun Zawadzki
- Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), Lucas Heights, NSW, Australia
| | - Geraldine Jacobsen
- Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), Lucas Heights, NSW, Australia
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41
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Voss R, Quaas MF, Stiasny MH, Hänsel M, Stecher Justiniano Pinto GA, Lehmann A, Reusch TBH, Schmidt JO. Ecological-economic sustainability of the Baltic cod fisheries under ocean warming and acidification. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2019; 238:110-118. [PMID: 30849595 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.02.105] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2018] [Revised: 02/18/2019] [Accepted: 02/22/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Human-induced climate change such as ocean warming and acidification, threatens marine ecosystems and associated fisheries. In the Western Baltic cod stock socio-ecological links are particularly important, with many relying on cod for their livelihoods. A series of recent experiments revealed that cod populations are negatively affected by climate change, but an ecological-economic assessment of the combined effects, and advice on optimal adaptive management are still missing. For Western Baltic cod, the increase in larval mortality due to ocean acidification has experimentally been quantified. Time-series analysis allows calculating the temperature effect on recruitment. Here, we include both processes in a stock-recruitment relationship, which is part of an ecological-economic optimization model. The goal was to quantify the effects of climate change on the triple bottom line (ecological, economic, social) of the Western Baltic cod fishery. Ocean warming has an overall negative effect on cod recruitment in the Baltic. Optimal management would react by lowering fishing mortality with increasing temperature, to create a buffer against climate change impacts. The negative effects cannot be fully compensated, but even at 3 °C warming above the 2014 level, a reduced but viable fishery would be possible. However, when accounting for combined effects of ocean warming and acidification, even optimal fisheries management cannot adapt to changes beyond a warming of +1.5° above the current level. Our results highlight the need for multi-factorial climate change research, in order to provide the best available, most realistic, and precautionary advice for conservation of exploited species as well as their connected socio-economic systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rudi Voss
- Sustainable Fishery, Department of Economics, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Kiel, Germany; Biodiversity Economics, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103, Leipzig, Germany.
| | - Martin F Quaas
- Biodiversity Economics, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103, Leipzig, Germany; Department of Economics, Leipzig University, Grimmaische Str. 12, 04109, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Martina H Stiasny
- Sustainable Fishery, Department of Economics, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Kiel, Germany; GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105, Kiel, Germany
| | - Martin Hänsel
- Sustainable Fishery, Department of Economics, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Kiel, Germany
| | | | - Andreas Lehmann
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105, Kiel, Germany
| | - Thorsten B H Reusch
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105, Kiel, Germany
| | - Jörn O Schmidt
- Sustainable Fishery, Department of Economics, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Kiel, Germany
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42
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Hansen GJA, Winslow LA, Read JS, Treml M, Schmalz PJ, Carpenter SR. Water clarity and temperature effects on walleye safe harvest: an empirical test of the safe operating space concept. Ecosphere 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2737] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Gretchen J. A. Hansen
- Division of Fish and Wildlife Minnesota Department of Natural Resources St. Paul Minnesota USA
| | - Luke A. Winslow
- Department of Biological Sciences Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Troy New York USA
| | - Jordan S. Read
- U.S. Geological Survey Water Resources Mission Area Middleton Wisconsin USA
| | - Melissa Treml
- Division of Fish and Wildlife Minnesota Department of Natural Resources St. Paul Minnesota USA
| | - Patrick J. Schmalz
- Division of Fish and Wildlife Minnesota Department of Natural Resources Duluth Minnesota USA
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43
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Vaughan IP, Gotelli NJ. Water quality improvements offset the climatic debt for stream macroinvertebrates over twenty years. Nat Commun 2019; 10:1956. [PMID: 31028258 PMCID: PMC6486586 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09736-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2018] [Accepted: 03/29/2019] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Many species are accumulating climatic debt as they fail to keep pace with increasing global temperatures. In theory, concomitant decreases in other stressors (e.g. pollution, fragmentation) could offset some warming effects, paying climatic debt with accrued environmental credit. This process may be occurring in many western European rivers. We fit a Markov chain model to ~20,000 macroinvertebrate samples from England and Wales, and demonstrate that despite large temperature increases 1991-2011, macroinvertebrate communities remained close to their predicted equilibrium with environmental conditions. Using a novel analysis of multiple stressors, an accumulated climatic debt of 0.64 (±0.13 standard error) °C of warming was paid by a water-quality credit equivalent to 0.89 (±0.04)°C of cooling. Although there is finite scope for mitigating additional climate warming in this way, water quality improvements appear to have offset recent temperature increases, and the concept of environmental credit may be a useful tool for communicating climate offsetting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ian P Vaughan
- Cardiff School of Biosciences and Water Research Institute, Cardiff University, Cardiff, CF10 3AX, UK.
- Department of Biology, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, 05405, USA.
| | - Nicholas J Gotelli
- Department of Biology, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, 05405, USA
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44
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Hughes TP, Kerry JT, Baird AH, Connolly SR, Chase TJ, Dietzel A, Hill T, Hoey AS, Hoogenboom MO, Jacobson M, Kerswell A, Madin JS, Mieog A, Paley AS, Pratchett MS, Torda G, Woods RM. Global warming impairs stock-recruitment dynamics of corals. Nature 2019; 568:387-390. [PMID: 30944475 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1081-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 161] [Impact Index Per Article: 32.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2018] [Accepted: 03/08/2019] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Changes in disturbance regimes due to climate change are increasingly challenging the capacity of ecosystems to absorb recurrent shocks and reassemble afterwards, escalating the risk of widespread ecological collapse of current ecosystems and the emergence of novel assemblages1-3. In marine systems, the production of larvae and recruitment of functionally important species are fundamental processes for rebuilding depleted adult populations, maintaining resilience and avoiding regime shifts in the face of rising environmental pressures4,5. Here we document a regional-scale shift in stock-recruitment relationships of corals along the Great Barrier Reef-the world's largest coral reef system-following unprecedented back-to-back mass bleaching events caused by global warming. As a consequence of mass mortality of adult brood stock in 2016 and 2017 owing to heat stress6, the amount of larval recruitment declined in 2018 by 89% compared to historical levels. For the first time, brooding pocilloporids replaced spawning acroporids as the dominant taxon in the depleted recruitment pool. The collapse in stock-recruitment relationships indicates that the low resistance of adult brood stocks to repeated episodes of coral bleaching is inexorably tied to an impaired capacity for recovery, which highlights the multifaceted processes that underlie the global decline of coral reefs. The extent to which the Great Barrier Reef will be able to recover from the collapse in stock-recruitment relationships remains uncertain, given the projected increased frequency of extreme climate events over the next two decades7.
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Affiliation(s)
- Terry P Hughes
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.
| | - James T Kerry
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Andrew H Baird
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Sean R Connolly
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.,College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Tory J Chase
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.,College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Andreas Dietzel
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Tessa Hill
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.,College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Andrew S Hoey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Mia O Hoogenboom
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.,College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Mizue Jacobson
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.,College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | | | - Joshua S Madin
- Hawai'i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai'i, Kaneohe, HI, USA.,Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Abbie Mieog
- Murray-Darling Basin Authority, Canberra City, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Allison S Paley
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.,College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Morgan S Pratchett
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Gergely Torda
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.,Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Rachael M Woods
- Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
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45
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Tulloch VJD, Plagányi ÉE, Brown C, Richardson AJ, Matear R. Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2019; 25:1263-1281. [PMID: 30807685 PMCID: PMC6850638 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14573] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2018] [Revised: 11/28/2018] [Accepted: 12/11/2018] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
Historical harvesting pushed many whale species to the brink of extinction. Although most Southern Hemisphere populations are slowly recovering, the influence of future climate change on their recovery remains unknown. We investigate the impacts of two anthropogenic pressures-historical commercial whaling and future climate change-on populations of baleen whales (blue, fin, humpback, Antarctic minke, southern right) and their prey (krill and copepods) in the Southern Ocean. We use a climate-biological coupled "Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments" (MICE) that links krill and whale population dynamics with climate change drivers, including changes in ocean temperature, primary productivity and sea ice. Models predict negative future impacts of climate change on krill and all whale species, although the magnitude of impacts on whales differs among populations. Despite initial recovery from historical whaling, models predict concerning declines under climate change, even local extinctions by 2100, for Pacific populations of blue, fin and southern right whales, and Atlantic/Indian fin and humpback whales. Predicted declines were a consequence of reduced prey (copepods/krill) from warming and increasing interspecific competition between whale species. We model whale population recovery under an alternative scenario whereby whales adapt their migratory patterns to accommodate changing sea ice in the Antarctic and a shifting prey base. Plasticity in range size and migration was predicted to improve recovery for ice-associated blue and minke whales. Our study highlights the need for ongoing protection to help depleted whale populations recover, as well as local management to ensure the krill prey base remains viable, but this may have limited success without immediate action to reduce emissions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vivitskaia J. D. Tulloch
- ARC Centre of Excellence in Environmental DecisionsUniversity of QueenslandSt Lucia, BrisbaneQLDAustralia
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland BioSciences Precinct (QBP)St Lucia, BrisbaneQLDAustralia
| | - Éva E. Plagányi
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland BioSciences Precinct (QBP)St Lucia, BrisbaneQLDAustralia
| | | | - Anthony J. Richardson
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland BioSciences Precinct (QBP)St Lucia, BrisbaneQLDAustralia
- Centre for Applications in Natural Resource Mathematics, School of Mathematics and PhysicsThe University of QueenslandSt LuciaQLDAustralia
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46
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Beller EE, Spotswood EN, Robinson AH, Anderson MG, Higgs ES, Hobbs RJ, Suding KN, Zavaleta ES, Grenier JL, Grossinger RM. Building Ecological Resilience in Highly Modified Landscapes. Bioscience 2018. [DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biy117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Erin E Beller
- Environmental scientist at the San Francisco Estuary Institute and a PhD candidate in the Department of Geography at the University of California, Berkeley
| | | | | | - Mark G Anderson
- Director of conservation science for The Nature Conservancy's Eastern US Region
| | - Eric S Higgs
- Professor of environmental studies at the University of Victoria, in, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Richard J Hobbs
- Professor and IAS Distinguished Fellow in the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Western Australia, in Perth
| | - Katharine N Suding
- Professor in ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Colorado, Boulder
| | - Erika S Zavaleta
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute Professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of California, Santa Cruz
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47
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Abstract
All life requires the capacity to recover from challenges that are as inevitable as they are unpredictable. Understanding this resilience is essential for managing the health of humans and their livestock. It has long been difficult to quantify resilience directly, forcing practitioners to rely on indirect static indicators of health. However, measurements from wearable electronics and other sources now allow us to analyze the dynamics of physiology and behavior with unsurpassed resolution. The resulting flood of data coincides with the emergence of novel analytical tools for estimating resilience from the pattern of microrecoveries observed in natural time series. Such dynamic indicators of resilience may be used to monitor the risk of systemic failure across systems ranging from organs to entire organisms. These tools invite a fundamental rethinking of our approach to the adaptive management of health and resilience.
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48
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Abstract
It is possible to frame sustainability as occurring when the global or local system is within a set of limits and boundaries, such as the concept of safe operating spaces within planetary boundaries. However, such framings, whilst highly useful conceptually, have been difficult to translate into operation, especially in the development of policies. Here we show how it is possible to define a safe operating space, bounded by sets of constraints. These constraints can be of a variety of forms (e.g., income, or biodiversity), and, importantly, they need not all be converted to a single common metric such as money. The challenge is to identify a set of policy options that define the “safe policy space” which maintains the system within the safe operating space defined by boundaries. A formal methodology, Co-Viability Analysis (CVA), can be used to do this. This provides a coherent framework to operationalize sustainability and has a number of extra advantages. First, defining a safe policy space allows for a political choice of which policies and so is not prescriptive—such as would be the case if a single policy option were defined. Secondly, by allowing each boundary to be defined with its own scale of measurement, it avoids the necessity of having to value natural capital or ecosystem services in financial terms. This framework, therefore, has the potential to allow decision-makers to genuinely meet the needs of their people, now and in the future.
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49
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Spatial congruence between multiple stressors in the Mediterranean Sea may reduce its resilience to climate impacts. Sci Rep 2018; 8:14871. [PMID: 30291298 PMCID: PMC6173748 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-33237-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2018] [Accepted: 09/19/2018] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate impacts on marine ecosystems may be exacerbated by other, more local stressors interacting synergistically, such as pollution and overexploitation of marine resources. The reduction of these human stressors has been proposed as an achievable way of retaining ecosystems within a “safe operating space” (SOS), where they remain resilient to ongoing climate change. However, the operability of an SOS requires a thorough understanding of the spatial distribution of these climate and human impacts. Using the Mediterranean Sea as a case study, we illustrate the spatial congruence between climate and human stressors impacting this iconic “miniature ocean” synergistically. We use long-term, spatially-explicit information on the distribution of multiple stressors to identify those highly impacted marine areas where human stressors should be prioritized for management if the resilience to climate impacts is to be maintained. Based on our spatial analysis, we exemplify how the management of an essential supporting service (seafood provision) and the conservation of a highly impacted Mediterranean sub-region (the Adriatic Sea) may benefit from the SOS framework.
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50
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Dudney J, Hobbs RJ, Heilmayr R, Battles JJ, Suding KN. Navigating Novelty and Risk in Resilience Management. Trends Ecol Evol 2018; 33:863-873. [PMID: 30268524 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2017] [Revised: 08/25/2018] [Accepted: 08/28/2018] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Resilience theory is increasingly applied to the management of global change impacts. There is growing concern, however, that misapplications of resilience-based management (RBM) can sometimes lead to undesirable outcomes. We address here an inescapable conundrum in the application of resilience theory: systems will need to track environmental change, but management that aims to support adaptive capacity can introduce undesirable levels of change. We provide a framework that links concepts from novel ecosystems and resilience theory to inform management of ecosystem change. We highlight that resilience-based applications need to address risks associated with novel human impacts to improve management outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joan Dudney
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
| | - Richard J Hobbs
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, Australia
| | - Robert Heilmayr
- Environmental Studies Program, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA
| | - John J Battles
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
| | - Katharine N Suding
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80302, USA; Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
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