Single hemagglutinin mutations that alter both antigenicity and receptor binding avidity influence influenza virus antigenic clustering

Intranasally administered whole virion inactivated vaccine against clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 influenza virus with optimized antigen and increased cross-protection

The global spread, frequent antigenic changes, and pandemic potential of clade 2.3.4.4b highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 underscore the urgent need for robust cross-protective vaccines. Here, we developed a clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 whole inactivated virus (WIV) vaccine strain with improved structural stability, productivity, and safety. By analyzing the evolutionary trends of clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 viruses, we identified a key mutation (R90K) that increases heat stability while preserving antigenicity. Additionally, the PB2 gene of PR8 was replaced with a prototypical avian PB2 gene to increase replication efficiency in embryonated chicken eggs and reduce replication efficiency in mammalian cells, thereby improving productivity and biosafety. We found that our optimized clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 vaccine strain (22W_KY), inactivated with binary ethylenimine (BEI), had superior antigen internalization into respiratory epithelial cells compared to those inactivated with formaldehyde or beta-propiolactone. Following intranasal administration to mice, the BEI-inactivated 22W_KY also elicited significantly stronger systemic IgG, mucosal IgA, and T-cell responses, especially in the lungs. Protective efficacy studies revealed that the BEI-inactivated 22W_KY vaccine provided complete protection against heterologous viral challenges and significant protection against heterosubtypic viral challenges, with no weight loss and complete suppression of the viral load in the respiratory tract in 2 of 3 mice. These results indicate that the BEI-inactivated 22W_KY vaccine could serve as a promising candidate for a safe, stable, cost-efficient, and broadly protective intranasal influenza vaccine against zoonotic and pandemic threats.

High-throughput neutralization measurements correlate strongly with evolutionary success of human influenza strains

Human influenza viruses rapidly acquire mutations in their hemagglutinin (HA) protein that erode neutralization by antibodies from prior exposures. Here, we use a sequencing-based assay to measure neutralization titers for 78 recent H3N2 HA strains against a large set of children and adult sera, measuring ~10,000 total titers. There is substantial person-to-person heterogeneity in the titers against different viral strains, both within and across age cohorts. The growth rates of H3N2 strains in the human population in 2023 are highly correlated with the fraction of sera with low titers against each strain. Notably, strain growth rates are less correlated with neutralization titers against pools of human sera, demonstrating the importance of population heterogeneity in shaping viral evolution. Overall, these results suggest that high-throughput neutralization measurements of human sera against many different viral strains can help explain the evolution of human influenza.

Serodynamics: A primer and synthetic review of methods for epidemiological inference using serological data

We present a review and primer of methods to understand epidemiological dynamics and identify past exposures from serological data, referred to as serodynamics. We discuss processing and interpreting serological data prior to fitting serodynamical models, and review approaches for estimating epidemiological trends and past exposures, ranging from serocatalytic models applied to binary serostatus data, to more complex models incorporating quantitative antibody measurements and immunological understanding. Although these methods are seemingly disparate, we demonstrate how they are derived within a common mathematical framework. Finally, we discuss key areas for methodological development to improve scientific discovery and public health insights in seroepidemiology.

R229I substitution from oseltamivir induction in HA1 region significantly increased the fitness of a H7N9 virus bearing NA 292K

The proportion of human isolates with reduced neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) susceptibility in highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H7N9 virus was high. These drug-resistant strains showed good replication capacity without serious loss of fitness. In the presence of oseltamivir, R229I substitution were found in HA1 region of the HPAI H7N9 virus before NA R292K appeared. HPAI H7N9 or H7N9/PR8 recombinant viruses were developed to study whether HA R229I could increase the fitness of the H7N9 virus bearing NA 292K. Replication efficiency was assessed in MDCK or A549 cells. Neuraminidase enzyme activity and receptor-binding ability were analyzed. Pathogenicity in C57 mice was evaluated. Antigenicity analysis was conducted through a two-way HI test, in which the antiserum was obtained from immunized ferrets. Transcriptomic analysis of MDCK infected with HPAI H7N9 24hpi was done. It turned out that HA R229I substitution from oseltamivir induction in HA1 region increased (1) replication ability in MDCK(P < 0.05) and A549(P < 0.05), (2) neuraminidase enzyme activity, (3) binding ability to both α2,3 and α2,6 receptor, (4) pathogenicity to mice(more weight loss; shorter mean survival day; viral titer in respiratory tract, P < 0.05; Pathological changes in pneumonia), (5) transcriptome response of MDCK, of the H7N9 virus bearing NA 292K. Besides, HA R229I substitution changed the antigenicity of H7N9/PR8 virus (>4-fold difference of HI titre). It indicated that through the fine-tuning of HA-NA balance, R229I increased the fitness and changed the antigenicity of H7N9 virus bearing NA 292K. Public health attention to this mechanism needs to be drawn.

Epistasis in the receptor binding domain of contemporary H3N2 viruses that reverted to bind sialylated diLacNAc repeats

Since the introduction of H3N2 influenza A viruses in the human population, these viruses have continuously evolved to escape human immunity, with mutations occurring in and around the receptor binding site. This process, called antigenic drift, recently resulted in viruses that recognize elongated glycans that are not abundantly displayed in the human respiratory tract. Such receptor specificities hampered our ability to pick and propagate vaccine strains. Using ELISA, glycan array, tissue staining, flow cytometry, and hemagglutinin assays, this study revealed that the most recent H3N2 viruses have expanded receptor specificity by regaining effective recognition to shorter glycans. In recent H3 strains, Y159 and T160 are responsible for restricted binding to elongated glycans; in contemporary strains, however, Y159N and T160I dominate with a consequent loss of strength in receptor binding. Yet, effective receptor interaction is rescued by a remote mutation in the 190-helix, Y195F. The results demonstrate epistasis of critical residues in three of the four structural elements composing the HA receptor-binding site (the 130-loop, 150-loop, and 190-helix), which synergistically contribute to shape receptor binding specificity. Interestingly, a positive correlation exists between binding to an asymmetrical N-glycan containing an α2,6 sialylated tri-LacNAc arm and binding to human and ferret respiratory tract tissues. Together, these results elucidate the epistatic nature of receptor binding specificity during influenza A virus H3N2 evolution.

Molecular epidemiology and vaccine compatibility analysis of seasonal influenza A viruses in the context of COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China

The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the global influenza vaccination and the epidemics of seasonal influenza. To further explore the molecular epidemiology of influenza viruses and assess vaccine effectiveness, we collected influenza cases in Wuhan during the 2022-2023 influenza season. Among 1312 clinical samples, 312 samples tested positive for influenza viruses using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. These positive samples included 146A/H1N1 subtypes (46.8%), 164A/H3N2 subtypes (52.6%) and 2 influenza B virus types (0.6%). Based on the whole genome sequence information of hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) from 27A/H1N1 influenza virus strains and 26A/H3N2 influenza virus strains obtained in this study, a phylogenetic analysis was conducted. The analysis revealed that all A/H1N1 strains belonged to the evolutionary branch 6B.1A.5a.2a, and they exhibited specific substitutions at positions K71Q, Q206E, E241A, and R276K. Similarly, all A/H3N2 strains were classified into the 3C.2a1b.2a.1a subclade and displayed amino acid substitutions at positions S172H, N175Y, I176T, K187N, and S214P. Notably, the A/H3N2 strains also acquired a new potential glycosylation site at position N174. Using an epitope model, the predicted vaccine effectiveness was assessed for the A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 strains. The predicted vaccine effectiveness against the Wuhan influenza epidemic strain was over 85% for the A/H1N1 vaccine strain. However, the effectiveness against the A/H3N2 vaccine strain was only 48.7%. To further verify the protection of influenza vaccine against circulating influenza viruses in the region, we conducted in vivo and in vitro animal studies. The results of in vitro neutralization experiment showed that rabbit serum antibodies inoculated with quadrivalent isolated influenza vaccine had neutralization ability against all 24 isolated influenza viruses. In vivo experiments showed that vaccinated mice had fewer lung lesions when infected with the influenza strain circulating in Wuhan, suggesting that vaccination can effectively reduce the occurrence of severe lung damage. These findings emphasize the importance of accurately predicting seasonal influenza strains for effective influenza prevention and control, especially during the co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses. This study provides valuable information on the seasonal influenza virus in Wuhan during the COVID-19 pandemic and serves as a basis for vaccine prediction and updates.

Genomic characterization of Influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 and SARS-CoV-2 from Influenza Like Illness (ILI) and Severe Acute Respiratory Illness (SARI) cases reported between July-December, 2022

Influenza Like Illness (ILI) and Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) cases are more prone to Influenza and SARS-CoV-2 infection. Accordingly, we genetically characterized Influenza and SARS-CoV-2 in 633 ILI and SARI cases by rRT-PCR and WGS. ILI and SARI cases showed H1N1pdm09 prevalence of 20.9% and 23.2% respectively. 135 (21.3%) H1N1pdm09 and 23 (3.6%) H3N2 and 5 coinfection (0.78%) of H1N1pdm09 and SARS-CoV-2 were detected. Phylogenetic analysis revealed H1N1pdm09 resemblance to clade 6B.1A.5a.2 and their genetic relatedness to InfA/Perth/34/2020, InfA/Victoria/88/2020 and InfA/Victoria/2570/2019. Pan 24 HA and 26 NA nonsynonymous mutations and novel HA (G6D, Y7F, Y78H, P212L, G339R, T508K and S523T) and NA (S229A) mutations were observed. S74R, N129D, N156K, S162N, K163Q and S164T alter HA Cb and Sa antibody recognizing site. Similarly, M19T, V13T substitution and multiple mutations in transmembrane and NA head domain drive antigenic drift. SARS-CoV-2 strains genetically characterized to Omicron BA.2.75 lineage containing thirty nonsynonymous spike mutations exhibited enhanced virulence and transmission rates. Coinfection although detected very minimal, the mutational changes in H1N1pdm09 and SARS-CoV-2 virus infected individuals could alter antibody receptor binding sites, allowing the viruses to escape immune response resulting in better adaptability and transmission. Thus continuous genomic surveillance is required to tackle any future outbreak.

Within-host influenza viral diversity in the pediatric population as a function of age, vaccine, and health status

Seasonal influenza virus predominantly evolves through antigenic drift, marked by the accumulation of mutations at antigenic sites. Because of antigenic drift, influenza vaccines are frequently updated, though their efficacy may still be limited due to strain mismatches. Despite the high levels of viral diversity observed across populations, most human studies reveal limited intrahost diversity, leaving the origin of population-level viral diversity unclear. Previous studies show host characteristics, such as immunity, might affect within-host viral evolution. Here we investigate influenza A viral diversity in children aged between 6 months and 18 years. Influenza virus evolution in children is less well characterized than in adults, yet may be associated with higher levels of viral diversity given the lower level of pre-existing immunity and longer durations of infection in children. We obtained influenza isolates from banked influenza A-positive nasopharyngeal swabs collected at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia during the 2017-18 influenza season. Using next-generation sequencing, we evaluated the population of influenza viruses present in each sample. We characterized within-host viral diversity using the number and frequency of intrahost single-nucleotide variants (iSNVs) detected in each sample. We related viral diversity to clinical metadata, including subjects' age, vaccination status, and comorbid conditions, as well as sample metadata such as virus strain and cycle threshold. Consistent with previous studies, most samples contained low levels of diversity with no clear association between the subjects' age, vaccine status, or health status. Further, there was no enrichment of iSNVs near known antigenic sites. Taken together, these findings are consistent with previous observations that the majority of intrahost influenza virus infection is characterized by low viral diversity without evidence of diversifying selection.

Reconstructed influenza A/H3N2 infection histories reveal variation in incidence and antibody dynamics over the life course

Humans experience many influenza infections over their lives, resulting in complex and varied immunological histories. Although experimental and quantitative analyses have improved our understanding of the immunological processes defining an individual's antibody repertoire, how these within-host processes are linked to population-level influenza epidemiology remains unclear. Here, we used a multi-level mathematical model to jointly infer antibody dynamics and individual-level lifetime influenza A/H3N2 infection histories for 1,130 individuals in Guangzhou, China, using 67,683 haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay measurements against 20 A/H3N2 strains from repeat serum samples collected between 2009 and 2015. These estimated infection histories allowed us to reconstruct historical seasonal influenza patterns and to investigate how influenza incidence varies over time, space and age in this population. We estimated median annual influenza infection rates to be approximately 18% from 1968 to 2015, but with substantial variation between years. 88% of individuals were estimated to have been infected at least once during the study period (2009-2015), and 20% were estimated to have three or more infections in that time. We inferred decreasing infection rates with increasing age, and found that annual attack rates were highly correlated across all locations, regardless of their distance, suggesting that age has a stronger impact than fine-scale spatial effects in determining an individual's antibody profile. Finally, we reconstructed each individual's expected antibody profile over their lifetime and inferred an age-stratified relationship between probability of infection and HI titre. Our analyses show how multi-strain serological panels provide rich information on long term, epidemiological trends, within-host processes and immunity when analyzed using appropriate inference methods, and adds to our understanding of the life course epidemiology of influenza A/H3N2.

Use of Biolayer Interferometry to Identify Dominant Binding Epitopes of Influenza Hemagglutinin Protein of A(H1N1)pdm09 in the Antibody Response to 2010-2011 Influenza Seasonal Vaccine

The globular head domain of influenza virus surface protein hemagglutinin (HA1) is the major target of neutralizing antibodies elicited by vaccines. As little as one amino acid substitution in the HA1 can result in an antigenic drift of influenza viruses, indicating the dominance of some epitopes in the binding of HA to polyclonal serum antibodies. Therefore, identifying dominant binding epitopes of HA is critical for selecting seasonal influenza vaccine viruses. In this study, we have developed a biolayer interferometry (BLI)-based assay to determine dominant binding epitopes of the HA1 in antibody response to influenza vaccines using a panel of recombinant HA1 proteins of A(H1N1)pdm09 virus with each carrying a single amino acid substitution. Sera from individuals vaccinated with the 2010-2011 influenza trivalent vaccines were analyzed for their binding to the HA1 panel and hemagglutination inhibition (HI) activity against influenza viruses with cognate mutations. Results revealed an over 50% reduction in the BLI binding of several mutated HA1 compared to the wild type and a strong correlation between dominant residues identified by the BLI and HI assays. Our study demonstrates a method to systemically analyze antibody immunodominance in the humoral response to influenza vaccines.

Immune Escape Adaptive Mutations in Hemagglutinin Are Responsible for the Antigenic Drift of Eurasian Avian-Like H1N1 Swine Influenza Viruses

The continuous antigenic variation of influenza A viruses remains a major hurdle for vaccine selection; however, the molecular determinants and mechanisms of antigenic change remain largely unknown. In this study, two escape mutants were generated by serial passages of the Eurasian avian-like H1N1 swine influenza virus (EA H1N1 SIV) A/swine/Henan/11/2005 (HeN11) in the presence of two neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against the hemagglutinin (HA) protein, which were designated HeN11-2B6-P5 and HeN11-4C7-P8, respectively. The HeN11-2B6-P5 mutant simultaneously harbored the N190D and I230M substitutions in HA, whereas HeN11-4C7-P8 harbored the M269R substitution in HA (H3 numbering). The effects of each of these substitutions on viral antigenicity were determined by measuring the neutralization and hemagglutination inhibition (HI) titers with mAbs and polyclonal sera raised against the representative viruses. The results indicate that residues 190 and 269 are key determinants of viral antigenic variation. In particular, the N190D mutation had the greatest antigenic impact, as determined by the HI assay. Further studies showed that both HeN11-2B6-P5 and HeN11-4C7-P8 maintained the receptor-binding specificity of the parent virus, although the single mutation N190D decreased the binding affinity for the human-type receptor. The replicative ability in vitro of HeN11-2B6-P5 was increased, whereas that of HeN11-4C7-P8 was decreased. These findings extend our understanding of the antigenic evolution of influenza viruses under immune pressure and provide insights into the functional effects of amino acid substitutions near the receptor-binding site and the interplay among receptor binding, viral replication, and antigenic drift.

IMPORTANCE The antigenic changes that occur continually in the evolution of influenza A viruses remain a great challenge for the effective control of disease outbreaks. Here, we identified three amino acid substitutions (at positions 190, 230, and 269) in the HA of EA H1N1 SIVs that determine viral antigenicity and result in escape from neutralizing monoclonal antibodies. All three of these substitutions have emerged in nature. Of note, residues 190 and 230 have synergistic effects on receptor binding and antigenicity. Our findings provide a better understanding of the functional effects of amino acid substitutions in HA and their consequences for the antigenic drift of influenza viruses.

HA gene amino acid mutations contribute to antigenic variation and immune escape of H9N2 influenza virus

Based on differences in the amino acid sequence of the protein haemagglutinin (HA), the H9N2 avian influenza virus (H9N2 virus) has been clustered into multiple lineages, and its rapidly ongoing evolution increases the difficulties faced by prevention and control programs. The HA protein, a major antigenic protein, and the amino acid mutations that alter viral antigenicity in particular have always been of interest. Likewise, it has been well documented that some amino acid mutations in HA alter viral antigenicity in the H9N2 virus, but little has been reported regarding how these antibody escape mutations affect antigenic variation. In this study, we were able to identify 15 HA mutations that were potentially relevant to viral antigenic drift, and we also found that a key amino acid mutation, A180V, at position 180 in HA (the numbering for mature H9 HA), the only site of the receptor binding sites that is not conserved, was directly responsible for viral antigenic variation. Moreover, the recombinant virus with alanine to valine substitution at position 180 in HA in the SH/F/98 backbone (rF/HA_A180V virus) showed poor cross-reactivity to immune sera from animals immunized with the SH/F/98 (F/98, A180), SD/SS/94 (A180), JS/Y618/12 (T180), and rF/HA_A180V (V180) viruses by microneutralization (MN) assay. The A180V substitution in the parent virus caused a significant decrease in cross-MN titres by enhancing the receptor binding activity, but it did not physically prevent antibody (Ab) binding. The strong receptor binding avidity prevented viral release from cells. Moreover, the A180V substitution promoted H9N2 virus escape from an in vitro pAb-neutralizing reaction, which also slightly affected the cross-protection in vivo. Our results suggest that the A180V mutation with a strong receptor binding avidity contributed to the low reactors in MN/HI assays and slightly affected vaccine efficacy but was not directly responsible for immune escape, which suggested that the A180V mutation might play a key role in the process of the adaptive evolution of H9N2 virus.

Antigenic characterization of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses

Antigenic characterization of emerging and re-emerging viruses is necessary for the prevention of and response to outbreaks, evaluation of infection mechanisms, understanding of virus evolution, and selection of strains for vaccine development. Primary analytic methods, including enzyme-linked immunosorbent/lectin assays, hemagglutination inhibition, neuraminidase inhibition, micro-neutralization assays, and antigenic cartography, have been widely used in the field of influenza research. These techniques have been improved upon over time for increased analytical capacity, and some have been mobilized for the rapid characterization of the SARS-CoV-2 virus as well as its variants, facilitating the development of highly effective vaccines within 1 year of the initially reported outbreak. While great strides have been made for evaluating the antigenic properties of these viruses, multiple challenges prevent efficient vaccine strain selection and accurate assessment. For influenza, these barriers include the requirement for a large virus quantity to perform the assays, more than what can typically be provided by the clinical samples alone, cell- or egg-adapted mutations that can cause antigenic mismatch between the vaccine strain and circulating viruses, and up to a 6-month duration of vaccine development after vaccine strain selection, which allows viruses to continue evolving with potential for antigenic drift and, thus, antigenic mismatch between the vaccine strain and the emerging epidemic strain. SARS-CoV-2 characterization has faced similar challenges with the additional barrier of the need for facilities with high biosafety levels due to its infectious nature. In this study, we review the primary analytic methods used for antigenic characterization of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 and discuss the barriers of these methods and current developments for addressing these challenges.

A statistical analysis of antigenic similarity among influenza A (H3N2) viruses

An accurate assessment of antigenic similarity between influenza viruses is important for vaccine strain recommendations and influenza surveillance. Due to the mechanisms that result in frequent changes in the antigenicities of strains, it is desirable to obtain an antigenic similarity measure that accounts for specific changes in strains that are of epidemiological importance in influenza. Empirically grounded statistical models best achieve this. In this study, an interpretable machine-learning model was developed using distinguishing features of antigenic variants to analyze antigenic similarity. The features comprised of cluster information, amino acid sequences located in known antigenic and receptor-binding sites of influenza A (H3N2). In order to assess validity of parameters, accuracy and relevance of model to vaccine effectiveness, the model was applied to influenza A (H3N2) viruses due to their abundant genetic data and epidemiological relevance to influenza surveillance. An application of the model revealed that all model parameters were statistically significant to determining antigenic similarity between strains. Furthermore, upon evaluating the model for predicting antigenic similarity between strains, it achieved 95% area under Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC), 94% accuracy, 76% precision, 97% specificity, 68% sensitivity and a diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) of 83.19. Above all, the model was found to be strongly related to influenza vaccine effectiveness to indicate the correlation between vaccine effectiveness and antigenic similarity between vaccine and circulating strains in an epidemic. The study predicts probabilities of antigenic similarity and estimates changes in strains that lead to antigenic variants. A successful application of the methods presented in this study would complement the global efforts in influenza surveillance.

Analysis of the Evolution of Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1) Virus Neuraminidase Reveals Entanglement of Different Phenotypic Characteristics

The influenza A virus (IAV) neuraminidase (NA) is essential for virion release from cells and decoy receptors and an important target of antiviral drugs and antibodies. Adaptation to a new host sialome and escape from the host immune system are forces driving the selection of mutations in the NA gene. Phylogenetic analysis shows that until 2015, 16 amino acid substitutions in NA became fixed in the virus population after introduction in the human population of the pandemic IAV H1N1 (H1N1pdm09) in 2009. The accumulative effect of these substitutions, in the order in which they appeared, was analyzed using recombinant proteins and viruses in combination with different functional assays. The results indicate that NA activity did not evolve to a single optimum but rather fluctuated within a certain bandwidth. Furthermore, antigenic and enzymatic properties of NA were intertwined, with several residues affecting multiple properties. For example, the substitution K432E in the second sialic acid binding site, next to the catalytic site, was shown to affect catalytic activity, substrate specificity, and the pH optimum for maximum activity. This substitution also altered antigenicity of NA, which may explain its selection. We propose that the entanglement of NA phenotypes may be an important determining factor in the evolution of NA.IMPORTANCE Since its emergence in 2009, the pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus (IAV) has caused significant disease and mortality in humans. IAVs contain two envelope glycoproteins, the receptor-binding hemagglutinin (HA) and the receptor-destroying neuraminidase (NA). NA is essential for virion release from cells and decoy receptors, is an important target of antiviral drugs, and is increasingly being recognized as an important vaccine antigen. Not much is known, however, about the evolution of this protein upon the emergence of the novel pandemic H1N1 virus, with respect to its enzymatic activity and antigenicity. By reconstructing the evolutionary path of NA, we show that antigenic and enzymatic properties of NA are intertwined, with several residues affecting multiple properties. Understanding the entanglement of NA phenotypes will lead to better comprehension of IAV evolution and may help the development of NA-based vaccines.

Time series computational prediction of vaccines for influenza A H3N2 with recurrent neural networks

Influenza viruses are persistently threatening public health, causing annual epidemics and sporadic pandemics due to rapid viral evolution. Vaccines are used to prevent influenza infections but the composition of the influenza vaccines have to be updated regularly to ensure its efficacy. Computational tools and analyses have become increasingly important in guiding the process of vaccine selection. By constructing time-series training samples with splittings and embeddings, we develop a computational method for predicting suitable strains as the recommendation of the influenza vaccines using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). The Encoder-decoder architecture of RNN model enables us to perform sequence-to-sequence prediction. We employ this model to predict the prevalent sequence of the H3N2 viruses sampled from 2006 to 2017. The identity between our predicted sequence and recommended vaccines is greater than 98% and the Pepitope<0.2 indicates their antigenic similarity. The multi-step vaccine prediction further demonstrates the robustness of our method which achieves comparable results in contrast to single step prediction. The results show significant matches of the recommended vaccine strains to the circulating strains. We believe it would facilitate the process of vaccine selection and surveillance of seasonal influenza epidemics.

Machine Learning Prediction and Experimental Validation of Antigenic Drift in H3 Influenza A Viruses in Swine

The antigenic diversity of influenza A viruses (IAV) circulating in swine challenges the development of effective vaccines, increasing zoonotic threat and pandemic potential. High-throughput sequencing technologies can quantify IAV genetic diversity, but there are no accurate approaches to adequately describe antigenic phenotypes. This study evaluated an ensemble of nonlinear regression models to estimate virus phenotype from genotype. Regression models were trained with a phenotypic data set of pairwise hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays, using genetic sequence identity and pairwise amino acid mutations as predictor features. The model identified amino acid identity, ranked the relative importance of mutations in the hemagglutinin (HA) protein, and demonstrated good prediction accuracy. Four previously untested IAV strains were selected to experimentally validate model predictions by HI assays. Errors between predicted and measured distances of uncharacterized strains were 0.35, 0.61, 1.69, and 0.13 antigenic units. These empirically trained regression models can be used to estimate antigenic distances between different strains of IAV in swine by using sequence data. By ranking the importance of mutations in the HA, we provide criteria for identifying antigenically advanced IAV strains that may not be controlled by existing vaccines and can inform strain updates to vaccines to better control this pathogen.IMPORTANCE Influenza A viruses (IAV) in swine constitute a major economic burden to an important global agricultural sector, impact food security, and are a public health threat. Despite significant improvement in surveillance for IAV in swine over the past 10 years, sequence data have not been integrated into a systematic vaccine strain selection process for predicting antigenic phenotype and identifying determinants of antigenic drift. To overcome this, we developed nonlinear regression models that predict antigenic phenotype from genetic sequence data by training the model on hemagglutination inhibition assay results. We used these models to predict antigenic phenotype for previously uncharacterized IAV, ranked the importance of genetic features for antigenic phenotype, and experimentally validated our predictions. Our model predicted virus antigenic characteristics from genetic sequence data and provides a rapid and accurate method linking genetic sequence data to antigenic characteristics. This approach also provides support for public health by identifying viruses that are antigenically advanced from strains used as pandemic preparedness candidate vaccine viruses.

Genetic determinants of receptor-binding preference and zoonotic potential of H9N2 avian influenza viruses

Receptor recognition and binding is the first step of viral infection and a key determinant of host specificity. The inability of avian influenza viruses to effectively bind human-like sialylated receptors is a major impediment to their efficient transmission in humans and pandemic capacity. Influenza H9N2 viruses are endemic in poultry across Asia and parts of Africa where they occasionally infect humans and are therefore considered viruses with zoonotic potential. We previously described H9N2 viruses, including several isolated from human zoonotic cases, showing a preference for human-like receptors. Here we take a mutagenesis approach, making viruses with single or multiple substitutions in H9 haemagglutinin and test binding to avian and human receptor analogues using biolayer interferometry. We determine the genetic basis of preferences for alternative avian receptors and for human-like receptors, describing amino acid motifs at positions 190, 226 and 227 that play a major role in determining receptor specificity, and several other residues such as 159, 188, 193, 196, 198 and 225 that play a smaller role. Furthermore, we show changes at residues 135, 137, 147, 157, 158, 184, 188, and 192 can also modulate virus receptor avidity and that substitutions that increased or decreased the net positive charge around the haemagglutinin receptor-binding site show increases and decreases in avidity, respectively. The motifs we identify as increasing preference for the human-receptor will help guide future H9N2 surveillance efforts and facilitate our understanding of the emergence of influenza viruses with increased zoonotic potential.IMPORTANCE As of 2020, over 60 infections of humans by H9N2 influenza viruses have been recorded in countries where the virus is endemic. Avian-like cellular receptors are the primary target for these viruses. However, given that human infections have been detected on an almost monthly basis since 2015, there may be a capacity for H9N2 viruses to evolve and gain the ability to target human-like cellular receptors. Here we identify molecular signatures that can cause viruses to bind human-like receptors, and we identify the molecular basis for the distinctive preference for sulphated receptors displayed by the majority of recent H9N2 viruses. This work will help guide future surveillance by providing markers that signify the emergence of viruses with enhanced zoonotic potential as well as improving understanding of the basis of influenza virus receptor-binding.

Cross-reactivity of antibody responses to Borrelia afzelii OspC: Asymmetry and host heterogeneity

The tick-transmitted bacterium Borrelia afzelii consists of a number of antigenically different strains - often defined by outer surface protein C (OspC) genotype - that coexist at stable frequencies in host populations. To investigate how host antibody responses affect strain coexistence, we measured antibody cross-reactivity to three different OspC types (OspC 2, 3 and 9) in three different strains of laboratory mice (BALB/c, C3H and C57BL/6). The extent of cross-reactivity differed between mouse strains, being higher in C3H than BALB/c and C57BL/6. In one of three pairwise comparisons of OspC types (OspC2 vs OspC9), there was evidence for asymmetry of cross-reactivity, with antibodies to OspC2 cross-reacting more strongly with OspC9 than vice versa. These results indicate that the extent of antibody-mediated competition between OspC types may depend on the composition of the host population, and that such competition may be asymmetric. We discuss the implications of these results for understanding the coexistence of OspC types.

Characterization of contemporary 2010.1 H3N2 swine influenza A viruses circulating in United States pigs

In 2012, swine influenza surveillance detected a novel reassorted influenza A virus (IAV) strain containing human-seasonal hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Subsequently, these viruses reassorted, maintaining only the human-origin H3, which resulted in a new lineage of viruses that became the most frequently detected H3 clade in US swine (2010.1 HA clade). Here, we assessed the antigenic phenotype, virulence, and transmission characteristics of this virus lineage following its introduction to swine. Relative to 2010.1 viruses from 2012 and 2014, recent 2010.1 contemporary strains from 2015 to 2017 resulted in equivalent macroscopic lung lesions and transmission in pigs. A single mutation at amino acid residue 145 within the previously defined HA antigenic motif was associated with a change of antigenic phenotype, potentially impairing vaccine efficacy. Contemporary 2010.1 viruses circulating in swine since 2012 were significantly different from both pre-2012H3N2 in swine and human-seasonal H3N2 viruses and demonstrated continued evolution within the lineage.

Searching for effective antiviral small molecules against influenza A virus: A patent review

Introduction: Despite the current interest caused by SARS-Cov-2, influenza continues to be one of the most serious health concerns, with an estimated 1 billion cases across the globe, including 3-5 million severe cases and 290,000-650,000 deaths worldwide. Areas covered: This manuscript reviews the efforts made in the development of small molecules for the treatment of influenza virus, primarily focused on patent applications in the last 5 years. Attention is paid to compounds targeting key functional viral proteins, such as the M2 channel, neuraminidase, and hemagglutinin, highlighting the evolution toward new ligands and scaffolds motivated by the emergence of resistant strains. Finally, the discovery of compounds against novel viral targets, such as the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase, is discussed. Expert opinion: The therapeutic potential of antiviral agents is limited by the increasing presence of resistant strains. This should encourage research on novel strategies for therapeutic intervention. In this context, the discovery of arbidol and JNJ7918 against hemagglutinin, and current efforts on RNA-dependent RNA polymerase have disclosed novel opportunities for therapeutic treatment. Studies should attempt to expand the therapeutic arsenal of anti-flu agents, often in combined therapies, to prevent future health challenges caused by influenza virus. Abbreviations: AlphaLISA: amplified luminescent proximity homogeneous assay; HA: hemagglutinin; NA: neuraminidase; RBD: receptor binding domain; RdRp: RNA-dependent RNA polymerase; SA: sialic Acid; TBHQ: tert-butyl hydroquinone; TEVC: two-electrode voltage clamp.

L226Q Mutation on Influenza H7N9 Virus Hemagglutinin Increases Receptor-Binding Avidity and Leads to Biased Antigenicity Evaluation

Since the first outbreak in 2013, the influenza A (H7N9) virus has continued emerging and has caused over five epidemic waves. Suspected antigenic changes of the H7N9 virus based on hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay during the fifth outbreak have prompted the update of H7N9 candidate vaccine viruses (CVVs). In this study, we comprehensively compared the serological cross-reactivities induced by the hemagglutinins (HAs) of the earlier CVV A/Anhui/1/2013 (H7/AH13) and the updated A/Guangdong/17SF003/2016 (H7/GD16). We found that although H7/GD16 showed poor HI cross-reactivity to immune sera from mice and rhesus macaques vaccinated with either H7/AH13 or H7/GD16, the cross-reactive neutralizing antibodies between H7/AH13 and H7/GD16 were comparably high. Passive transfer of H7/AH13 immune sera also provided complete protection against the lethal challenge of H7N9/GD16 virus in mice. Analysis of amino acid mutations in the HAs between H7/AH13 and H7/GD16 revealed that L226Q substitution increases the HA binding avidity to sialic acid receptors on red blood cells, leading to decreased HI titers against viruses containing HA Q226 and thus resulting in a biased antigenic evaluation based on HI assay. These results suggest that amino acids located in the receptor-binding site could mislead the evaluation of antigenic variation by solely impacting the receptor-binding avidity to red blood cells without genuine contribution to antigenic drift. Our study highlighted that viral receptor-binding avidity and combination of multiple serological assays should be taken into consideration in evaluating and selecting a candidate vaccine virus of H7N9 and other subtypes of influenza viruses.IMPORTANCE The HI assay is a standard method for profiling the antigenic characterization of influenza viruses. Suspected antigenic changes based on HI divergency in H7N9 viruses during the 2016-2017 wave prompted the recommendation of new H7N9 candidate vaccine viruses (CVVs). In this study, we found that the L226Q substitution in HA of A/Guangdong/17SF003/2016 (H7/GD16) increased the viral receptor-binding avidity to red blood cells with no impact on the antigenicity of H7N9 virus. Although immune sera raised by an earlier vaccine strain (H7/AH13) showed poor HI titers against H7/GD16, the H7/AH13 immune sera had potent cross-neutralizing antibody titers against H7/GD16 and could provide complete passive protection against H7N9/GD16 virus challenge in mice. Our study highlights that receptor-binding avidity might lead to biased antigenic evaluation by using the HI assay. Other serological assays, such as the microneutralization (MN) assay, should be considered a complementary indicator for analysis of antigenic variation and selection of influenza CVVs.

Structural Biology of Influenza Hemagglutinin: An Amaranthine Adventure

Hemagglutinin (HA) glycoprotein is an important focus of influenza research due to its role in antigenic drift and shift, as well as its receptor binding and membrane fusion functions, which are indispensable for viral entry. Over the past four decades, X-ray crystallography has greatly facilitated our understanding of HA receptor binding, membrane fusion, and antigenicity. The recent advances in cryo-EM have further deepened our comprehension of HA biology. Since influenza HA constantly evolves in natural circulating strains, there are always new questions to be answered. The incessant accumulation of knowledge on the structural biology of HA over several decades has also facilitated the design and development of novel therapeutics and vaccines. This review describes the current status of the field of HA structural biology, how we got here, and what the next steps might be.

Analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein glycan shield reveals implications for immune recognition

Here we have generated 3D structures of glycoforms of the spike (S) glycoprotein from SARS-CoV-2, based on reported 3D structures and glycomics data for the protein produced in HEK293 cells. We also analyze structures for glycoforms representing those present in the nascent glycoproteins (prior to enzymatic modifications in the Golgi), as well as those that are commonly observed on antigens present in other viruses. These models were subjected to molecular dynamics (MD) simulation to determine the extent to which glycan microheterogeneity impacts the antigenicity of the S glycoprotein. Lastly, we have identified peptides in the S glycoprotein that are likely to be presented in human leukocyte antigen (HLA) complexes, and discuss the role of S protein glycosylation in potentially modulating the innate and adaptive immune response to the SARS-CoV-2 virus or to a related vaccine. The 3D structures show that the protein surface is extensively shielded from antibody recognition by glycans, with the notable exception of the ACE2 receptor binding domain, and also that the degree of shielding is largely insensitive to the specific glycoform. Despite the relatively modest contribution of the glycans to the total molecular weight of the S trimer (17% for the HEK293 glycoform) they shield approximately 40% of the protein surface.

Influenza Hemagglutinin Structures and Antibody Recognition

Hemagglutinin (HA) is most abundant glycoprotein on the influenza virus surface. Influenza HA promotes viral entry by engaging the receptor and mediating virus-host membrane fusion. At the same time, HA is the major antigen of the influenza virus. HA antigenic shift can result in pandemics, whereas antigenic drift allows human circulating strains to escape herd immunity. Most antibody responses against HA are strain-specific. However, antibodies that have neutralizing activities against multiple strains or even subtypes have now been discovered and characterized. These broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) target conserved regions on HA, such as the receptor-binding site and the stem domain. Structural studies of such bnAbs have provided important insight into universal influenza vaccine and therapeutic design. This review discusses the HA functions as well as HA-antibody interactions from a structural perspective.

Potential Antigenic Mismatch of the H3N2 Component of the 2019 Southern Hemisphere Influenza Vaccine

Here, we find that the egg-adapted H3N2 component of the 2019 Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine elicits an antibody response in ferrets that is highly focused on antigenic site A of hemagglutinin. This is potentially problematic as most H3N2 viruses currently circulating in the Southern Hemisphere possess antigenic site A substitutions.

An open source tool to infer epidemiological and immunological dynamics from serological data: serosolver

We present a flexible, open source R package designed to obtain biological and epidemiological insights from serological datasets. Characterising past exposures for multi-strain pathogens poses a specific statistical challenge: observed antibody responses measured in serological assays depend on multiple unobserved prior infections that produce cross-reactive antibody responses. We provide a general modelling framework to jointly infer infection histories and describe immune responses generated by these infections using antibody titres against current and historical strains. We do this by linking latent infection dynamics with a mechanistic model of antibody kinetics that generates expected antibody titres over time. Our aim is to provide a flexible package to identify infection histories that can be applied to a range of pathogens. We present two case studies to illustrate how our model can infer key immunological parameters, such as antibody titre boosting, waning and cross-reaction, as well as latent epidemiological processes such as attack rates and age-stratified infection risk.

Analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein glycan shield: implications for immune recognition

Here we have generated 3D structures of glycoforms of the spike (S) glycoprotein from SARS-CoV-2, based on reported 3D structures and glycomics data for the protein produced in HEK293 cells. We also analyze structures for glycoforms representing those present in the nascent glycoproteins (prior to enzymatic modifications in the Golgi), as well as those that are commonly observed on antigens present in other viruses. These models were subjected to molecular dynamics (MD) simulation to determine the extent to which glycan microheterogeneity impacts the antigenicity of the S glycoprotein. Lastly, we have identified peptides in the S glycoprotein that are likely to be presented in human leukocyte antigen (HLA) complexes, and discuss the role of S protein glycosylation in potentially modulating the adaptive immune response to the SARS-CoV-2 virus or to a related vaccine. The 3D structures show that the protein surface is extensively shielded from antibody recognition by glycans, with the exception of the ACE2 receptor binding domain, and also that the degree of shielding is largely insensitive to the specific glycoform. Despite the relatively modest contribution of the glycans to the total molecular weight (17% for the HEK293 glycoform) the level of surface shielding is disproportionately high at 42%.

Models of immune selection for multi-locus antigenic diversity of pathogens

It is well accepted that pathogens can evade recognition and elimination by the host immune system by varying their antigenic targets. Thus, it has become a truism that host immunity is a major driver and determinant of the antigenic diversity of pathogens. However, it remains puzzling how host immunity selects for antigenic diversity at the level of the pathogen population, given that hosts have acquired immune responses to multiple antigens of most pathogens - sometimes through multiple effectors of both humoral and cellular immunity. In this Opinion article, we address this puzzle and the related question of why pathogens often have diversity at multiple antigenic loci. Here, we describe five hypotheses to explain the polymorphism of multiple antigens in a single pathogen species and highlight research relevant to our current models of thinking about multi-locus antigenic diversity.

Positive selection pressure on E2 protein of classical swine fever virus drives variations in virulence, pathogenesis and antigenicity: Implication for epidemiological surveillance in endemic areas

Classical swine fever (CSF), caused by CSF virus (CSFV), is considered one of the most important infectious diseases with devasting consequences for the pig industry. Recent reports describe the emergence of new CSFV strains resulting from the action of positive selection pressure, due mainly to the bottleneck effect generated by ineffective vaccination. Even though a decrease in the genetic diversity of the positively selected CSFV strains has been observed by several research groups, there is little information about the effect of this selective force on the virulence degree, antigenicity and pathogenicity of this type of strains. Hence, the aim of the current study was to determine the effect of the positive selection pressure on these three parameters of CSFV strains, emerged as result of the bottleneck effects induced by improper vaccination in a CSF-endemic area. Moreover, the effect of the positively selected strains on the epidemiological surveillance system was assessed. By the combination of in vitro, in vivo and immunoinformatic approaches, we revealed that the action of the positive selection pressure induces a decrease in virulence and alteration in pathogenicity and antigenicity. However, we also noted that the evolutionary process of CSFV, especially in segregated microenvironments, could contribute to the gain-fitness event, restoring the highly virulent pattern of the circulating strains. Besides, we denoted that the presence of low virulent strains selected by bottleneck effect after inefficient vaccination can lead to a relevant challenge for the epidemiological surveillance of CSF, contributing to under-reports of the disease, favouring the perpetuation of the virus in the field. In this study, B-cell and CTL epitopes on the E2 3D-structure model were also identified. Thus, the current study provides novel and significant insights into variation in virulence, pathogenesis and antigenicity experienced by CSFV strains after the positive selection pressure effect.

Epistatic interactions can moderate the antigenic effect of substitutions in haemagglutinin of influenza H3N2 virus

We previously showed that single amino acid substitutions at seven positions in haemagglutinin determined major antigenic change of influenza H3N2 virus. Here, the impact of two such substitutions was tested in 11 representative H3 haemagglutinins to investigate context-dependence effects. The antigenic effect of substitutions introduced at haemagglutinin position 145 was fully independent of the amino acid context of the representative haemagglutinins. Antigenic change caused by substitutions introduced at haemagglutinin position 155 was variable and context-dependent. Our results suggest that epistatic interactions with contextual amino acids in the haemagglutinin can moderate the magnitude of antigenic change.

Insights into the antigenic advancement of influenza A(H3N2) viruses, 2011-2018

Influenza A(H3N2) viruses evade human immunity primarily by acquiring antigenic changes in the haemagglutinin (HA). HA receptor-binding features of contemporary A(H3N2) viruses hinder traditional antigenic characterization using haemagglutination inhibition and promote selection of HA mutants. Thus, alternative approaches are needed to reliably assess antigenic relatedness between circulating viruses and vaccines. We developed a high content imaging-based neutralization test (HINT) to reduce antigenic mischaracterization resulting from virus adaptation to cell culture. Ferret reference antisera were raised using clinical specimens containing viruses representing recent vaccine strains. Analysis of viruses circulating during 2011-2018 showed that gain of an N158-linked glycosylation in HA was a molecular determinant of antigenic distancing between A/Hong Kong/4801/2014-like (clade 3C.2a) and A/Texas/50/2012-like viruses (clade 3C.1), while multiple evolutionary HA F193S substitution were linked to antigenic distancing from A/Switzerland/97152963/2013-like (clade 3C.3a) and further antigenic distancing from A/Texas/50/2012-like viruses. Additionally, a few viruses carrying HA T135K and/or I192T showed reduced neutralization by A/Hong Kong/4801/2014-like antiserum. Notably, this technique elucidated the antigenic characteristics of clinical specimens, enabling direct characterization of viruses produced in vivo, and eliminating in vitro culture, which rapidly alters the genotype/phenotype. HINT is a valuable new antigenic analysis tool for vaccine strain selection.

Plasticity of Amino Acid Residue 145 Near the Receptor Binding Site of H3 Swine Influenza A Viruses and Its Impact on Receptor Binding and Antibody Recognition

The hemagglutinin (HA), a glycoprotein on the surface of influenza A virus (IAV), initiates the virus life cycle by binding to terminal sialic acid (SA) residues on host cells. The HA gradually accumulates amino acid substitutions that allow IAV to escape immunity through a mechanism known as antigenic drift. We recently confirmed that a small set of amino acid residues are largely responsible for driving antigenic drift in swine-origin H3 IAV. All identified residues are located adjacent to the HA receptor binding site (RBS), suggesting that substitutions associated with antigenic drift may also influence receptor binding. Among those substitutions, residue 145 was shown to be a major determinant of antigenic evolution. To determine whether there are functional constraints to substitutions near the RBS and their impact on receptor binding and antigenic properties, we carried out site-directed mutagenesis experiments at the single-amino-acid level. We generated a panel of viruses carrying substitutions at residue 145 representing all 20 amino acids. Despite limited amino acid usage in nature, most substitutions at residue 145 were well tolerated without having a major impact on virus replication in vitro All substitution mutants retained receptor binding specificity, but the substitutions frequently led to decreased receptor binding. Glycan microarray analysis showed that substitutions at residue 145 modulate binding to a broad range of glycans. Furthermore, antigenic characterization identified specific substitutions at residue 145 that altered antibody recognition. This work provides a better understanding of the functional effects of amino acid substitutions near the RBS and the interplay between receptor binding and antigenic drift.IMPORTANCE The complex and continuous antigenic evolution of IAVs remains a major hurdle for vaccine selection and effective vaccination. On the hemagglutinin (HA) of the H3N2 IAVs, the amino acid substitution N 145 K causes significant antigenic changes. We show that amino acid 145 displays remarkable amino acid plasticity in vitro, tolerating multiple amino acid substitutions, many of which have not yet been observed in nature. Mutant viruses carrying substitutions at residue 145 showed no major impairment in virus replication in the presence of lower receptor binding avidity. However, their antigenic characterization confirmed the impact of the 145 K substitution in antibody immunodominance. We provide a better understanding of the functional effects of amino acid substitutions implicated in antigenic drift and its consequences for receptor binding and antigenicity. The mutation analyses presented in this report represent a significant data set to aid and test the ability of computational approaches to predict binding of glycans and in antigenic cartography analyses.

Impact of the variations in potential glycosylation sites of the hemagglutinin of H9N2 influenza virus

Variations in the potential glycosylation sites were observed in hemagglutinin (HA) sequences of H9N2 avian influenza virus isolated in China, deposited in the Influenza Virus Resource of NCBI before 2017, which showed a deleted glycosylation site at amino acid residue 218, and an introduced glycosylation site at amino acid residue 313. Based on the variations in the glycosylation sites at these amino acids, H9N2 avian influenza viruses could be divided into three categories. Firstly, most of the H9N2 influenza viruses were 218G⁺ viruses; less 313G⁺ viruses were isolated between 1997 and 2004. Secondly, the occurrence of the 218G⁺/313G⁺ viruses increased, while the 218G⁺/313G⁻ viruses decreased from 2005 to 2012. Thirdly, from 2013 to 2016, the 218G⁻/313G⁺ viruses were predominant compared to the 218G⁺/313G⁺ viruses. Here, based on an F/98 virus backbone, a 218G⁺/313G⁻ virus, two reassortment viruses were generated, and named rF/HA218G⁺/313G⁺ and rF/HA 218G⁺/313G⁻, respectively. HA protein migration demonstrated that the glycosylation sites at amino acid residues 313 and 218 were both functional. The absence of the glycosylation site at amino acid residue 218 and the presence of the glycosylation site at amino acid residue 313 increased antibody binding and moderately prevented the virus from escaping neutralization with homologous antisera. Additionally, compared to the F/98 virus (218G⁺/313G⁻), the viruses rF/HA218G⁺/313G⁺ or rF/HA218G⁻/313G⁺ showed significantly increased infectivity of MDCK cells, chicken embryo eggs, and trachea and lung tissue of SPF chickens, but did not display differences in airborne spread in chickens or infectivity of mice compared with its parental virus F/98.

Antigenic relationship among zoonotic flaviviruses from Italy

Here we report studies of the antigenic relationship of West Nile virus (WNV) and Usutu virus (USUV), two zoonotic flaviviruses from Italy, together with a Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) strain and compared them with their genetic relationship using the immunodominant viral E protein. Thirty-nine isolates and reference strains were inactivated and used to immunize rabbits to produce hyper immune sera. Serum samples were tested by neutralization against all isolates and results visualized by generating antigenic map. Strains of WNV, USUV, and JEV grouped in separate clusters on the antigenic map. JEV was closer antigenically to USUV (mean of 3.5 Antigenic Unit, AU, equivalent to a 2-fold change in antibody titer) than to WNV strains (mean of 6 AU). A linear regression model predicted, on average, one unit of antigenic change, equivalent to a 2-fold change in antibody titer, for every 22 amino acid substitutions in the E protein ectodomain. Overall, antigenic map was demonstrated to be robust and consistent with phylogeny of the E protein. Indeed, the map provided a reliable means of visualizing and quantifying the relationship between these flaviviruses. Further antigenic analyses employing representative strains of extant serocomplexes are currently underway. This will provide a more in deep knowledge of antigenic relationships between flaviviruses.

The molecular basis of antigenic variation among A(H9N2) avian influenza viruses

Avian influenza A(H9N2) viruses are an increasing threat to global poultry production and, through zoonotic infection, to human health where they are considered viruses with pandemic potential. Vaccination of poultry is a key element of disease control in endemic countries, but vaccine effectiveness is persistently challenged by the emergence of antigenic variants. Here we employed a combination of techniques to investigate the genetic basis of H9N2 antigenic variability and evaluate the role of different molecular mechanisms of immune escape. We systematically tested the influence of published H9N2 monoclonal antibody escape mutants on chicken antisera binding, determining that many have no significant effect. Substitutions introducing additional glycosylation sites were a notable exception, though these are relatively rare among circulating viruses. To identify substitutions responsible for antigenic variation in circulating viruses, we performed an integrated meta-analysis of all published H9 haemagglutinin sequences and antigenic data. We validated this statistical analysis experimentally and allocated several new residues to H9N2 antigenic sites, providing molecular markers that will help explain vaccine breakdown in the field and inform vaccine selection decisions. We find evidence for the importance of alternative mechanisms of immune escape, beyond simple modulation of epitope structure, with substitutions increasing glycosylation or receptor-binding avidity, exhibiting the largest impacts on chicken antisera binding. Of these, meta-analysis indicates avidity regulation to be more relevant to the evolution of circulating viruses, suggesting that a specific focus on avidity regulation is required to fully understand the molecular basis of immune escape by influenza, and potentially other viruses.

Kinetic analysis of the influenza A virus HA/NA balance reveals contribution of NA to virus-receptor binding and NA-dependent rolling on receptor-containing surfaces

Interactions of influenza A virus (IAV) with sialic acid (SIA) receptors determine viral fitness and host tropism. Binding to mucus decoy receptors and receptors on epithelial host cells is determined by a receptor-binding hemagglutinin (HA), a receptor-destroying neuraminidase (NA) and a complex in vivo receptor-repertoire. The crucial but poorly understood dynamics of these multivalent virus-receptor interactions cannot be properly analyzed using equilibrium binding models and endpoint binding assays. In this study, the use of biolayer interferometric analysis revealed the virtually irreversible nature of IAV binding to surfaces coated with synthetic sialosides or engineered sialoglycoproteins in the absence of NA activity. In addition to HA, NA was shown to be able to contribute to the initial binding rate while catalytically active. Virus-receptor binding in turn contributed to receptor cleavage by NA. Multiple low-affinity HA-SIA interactions resulted in overall extremely high avidity but also permitted a dynamic binding mode, in which NA activity was driving rolling of virus particles over the receptor-surface. Virus dissociation only took place after receptor density of the complete receptor-surface was sufficiently decreased due to NA activity of rolling IAV particles. The results indicate that in vivo IAV particles, after landing on the mucus layer, reside continuously in a receptor-bound state while rolling through the mucus layer and over epithelial cell surfaces driven by the HA-NA-receptor balance. Quantitative BLI analysis enabled functional examination of this balance which governs this dynamic and motile interaction that is expected to be crucial for penetration of the mucus layer and subsequent infection of cells by IAV but likely also by other enveloped viruses carrying a receptor-destroying enzyme in addition to a receptor-binding protein.

Influenza A virus (IAV) tropism is largely determined by the interaction of virus particles with the sialic acid receptor repertoire of the host. IAVs encounter a diverse range of sialic acid receptors that can function as decoys (e.g. in the mucus that covers epithelial cells) or as entry receptors. We studied the dynamics of IAV-receptor interactions in real-time using biolayer interferometry (BLI) in combination with synthetic glycans and recombinant sialoglycoproteins mimicking in vivo receptors. Thereby we could show that IAVs do not continuously associate and dissociate with receptor-coated surfaces but actually were rolling over the surface with which they remained permanently associated until the receptors were sufficiently cleared. This required the concerted action of the receptor-binding hemagglutinin (HA) and the receptor-destroying neuraminidase (NA) on the receptor surface. We could quantify the precise HA-NA-receptor balance that determined the speed of rolling and eventual elution from the surface by BLI and propose a model in which IAV is permanently, but dynamically, associated with receptors on mucus or host cells in vivo.

Bayesian inference of antigenic and non-antigenic variables from haemagglutination inhibition assays for influenza surveillance

Haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays are typically used for comparing and characterizing influenza viruses. Data obtained from the assays (titres) are used quantitatively to determine antigenic differences between influenza strains. However, the use of these titres has been criticized as they sometimes fail to capture accurate antigenic differences between strains. Our previous analytical work revealed how antigenic and non-antigenic variables contribute to the titres. Building on this previous work, we have developed a Bayesian method for decoupling antigenic and non-antigenic contributions to the titres in this paper. We apply this method to a compendium of HI titres of influenza A (H3N2) viruses curated from 1968 to 2016. Remarkably, the results of this fit indicate that the non-antigenic variable, which is inversely correlated with viral avidity for the red blood cells used in HI assays, oscillates during the course of influenza virus evolution, with a period that corresponds roughly to the timescale on which antigenic variants replace each other. Together, the results suggest that the new Bayesian method is applicable to the analysis of long-term dynamics of both antigenic and non-antigenic properties of influenza virus.

Identification of human vaccinees that possess antibodies targeting the egg-adapted hemagglutinin receptor binding site of an H1N1 influenza vaccine strain

Human influenza viruses passaged in eggs often acquire mutations in the hemagglutinin (HA) receptor binding site (RBS). To determine if egg-adapted H1N1 vaccines commonly elicit antibodies targeting the egg-adapted RBS of HA, we completed hemagglutinin-inhibition assays with A/California/7/2009 HA and egg-adapted A/California/7/2009-X-179A HA using sera collected from 159 humans vaccinated with seasonal influenza vaccines during the 2015-16 season. We found that ∼5% of participants had ≥4-fold higher antibody titers to the egg-adapted viral strain compared to wild type viral strain. We used reverse-genetics to demonstrate that a single egg-adapted HA RBS mutation (Q226R) was responsible for this phenotype.

A complex epistatic network limits the mutational reversibility in the influenza hemagglutinin receptor-binding site

The hemagglutinin (HA) receptor-binding site (RBS) in human influenza A viruses is critical for attachment to host cells, which imposes a functional constraint on its natural evolution. On the other hand, being part of the major antigenic sites, the HA RBS of human H3N2 viruses needs to constantly mutate to evade the immune system. From large-scale mutagenesis experiments, we here show that several of the natural RBS substitutions become integrated into an extensive epistatic network that prevents substitution reversion. X-ray structural analysis reveals the mechanistic consequences as well as changes in the mode of receptor binding. Further studies are necessary to elucidate whether such entrenchment limits future options for immune escape or adversely affect long-term viral fitness.

Sweep Dynamics (SD) plots: Computational identification of selective sweeps to monitor the adaptation of influenza A viruses

Monitoring changes in influenza A virus genomes is crucial to understand its rapid evolution and adaptation to changing conditions e.g. establishment within novel host species. Selective sweeps represent a rapid mode of adaptation and are typically observed in human influenza A viruses. We describe Sweep Dynamics (SD) plots, a computational method combining phylogenetic algorithms with statistical techniques to characterize the molecular adaptation of rapidly evolving viruses from longitudinal sequence data. SD plots facilitate the identification of selective sweeps, the time periods in which these occurred and associated changes providing a selective advantage to the virus. We studied the past genome-wide adaptation of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza A (pH1N1) and seasonal H3N2 influenza A (sH3N2) viruses. The pH1N1 influenza virus showed simultaneous amino acid changes in various proteins, particularly in seasons of high pH1N1 activity. Partially, these changes resulted in functional alterations facilitating sustained human-to-human transmission. In the evolution of sH3N2 influenza viruses, we detected changes characterizing vaccine strains, which were occasionally revealed in selective sweeps one season prior to the WHO recommendation. Taken together, SD plots allow monitoring and characterizing the adaptive evolution of influenza A viruses by identifying selective sweeps and their associated signatures.

Association of Increased Receptor-Binding Avidity of Influenza A(H9N2) Viruses with Escape from Antibody-Based Immunity and Enhanced Zoonotic Potential

We characterized 55 influenza A(H9N2) viruses isolated in Pakistan during 2014-2016 and found that the hemagglutinin gene is of the G1 lineage and that internal genes have differentiated into a variety of novel genotypes. Some isolates had up to 4-fold reduction in hemagglutination inhibition titers compared with older viruses. Viruses with hemagglutinin A180T/V substitutions conveyed this antigenic diversity and also caused up to 3,500-fold greater binding to avian-like and >20-fold greater binding to human-like sialic acid receptor analogs. This enhanced binding avidity led to reduced virus replication in primary and continuous cell culture. We confirmed that altered receptor-binding avidity of H9N2 viruses, including enhanced binding to human-like receptors, results in antigenic variation in avian influenza viruses. Consequently, current vaccine formulations might not induce adequate protective immunity in poultry, and emergence of isolates with marked avidity for human-like receptors increases the zoonotic risk.

Contemporary H3N2 influenza viruses have a glycosylation site that alters binding of antibodies elicited by egg-adapted vaccine strains

H3N2 viruses continuously acquire mutations in the hemagglutinin (HA) glycoprotein that abrogate binding of human antibodies. During the 2014-2015 influenza season, clade 3C.2a H3N2 viruses possessing a new predicted glycosylation site in antigenic site B of HA emerged, and these viruses remain prevalent today. The 2016-2017 seasonal influenza vaccine was updated to include a clade 3C.2a H3N2 strain; however, the egg-adapted version of this viral strain lacks the new putative glycosylation site. Here, we biochemically demonstrate that the HA antigenic site B of circulating clade 3C.2a viruses is glycosylated. We show that antibodies elicited in ferrets and humans exposed to the egg-adapted 2016-2017 H3N2 vaccine strain poorly neutralize a glycosylated clade 3C.2a H3N2 virus. Importantly, antibodies elicited in ferrets infected with the current circulating H3N2 viral strain (that possesses the glycosylation site) and humans vaccinated with baculovirus-expressed H3 antigens (that possess the glycosylation site motif) were able to efficiently recognize a glycosylated clade 3C.2a H3N2 virus. We propose that differences in glycosylation between H3N2 egg-adapted vaccines and circulating strains likely contributed to reduced vaccine effectiveness during the 2016-2017 influenza season. Furthermore, our data suggest that influenza virus antigens prepared via systems not reliant on egg adaptations are more likely to elicit protective antibody responses that are not affected by glycosylation of antigenic site B of H3N2 HA.

In Silico Vaccine Strain Prediction for Human Influenza Viruses

Vaccines preventing seasonal influenza infections save many lives every year; however, due to rapid viral evolution, they have to be updated frequently to remain effective. To identify appropriate vaccine strains, the World Health Organization (WHO) operates a global program that continually generates and interprets surveillance data. Over the past decade, sophisticated computational techniques, drawing from multiple theoretical disciplines, have been developed that predict viral lineages rising to predominance, assess their suitability as vaccine strains, link genetic to antigenic alterations, as well as integrate and visualize genetic, epidemiological, structural, and antigenic data. These could form the basis of an objective and reproducible vaccine strain-selection procedure utilizing the complex, large-scale data types from surveillance. To this end, computational techniques should already be incorporated into the vaccine-selection process in an independent, parallel track, and their performance continuously evaluated.

Effect of Priming With Seasonal Influenza A(H3N2) Virus on the Prevalence of Cross-Reactive Hemagglutination-Inhibition Antibodies to Swine-Origin A(H3N2) Variants

Background

Recent outbreaks of swine-origin influenza A(H3N2) variant (H3N2v) viruses have raised public health concerns. Previous studies indicated that older children and young adults had the highest levels of hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) antibodies to 2010-2011 H3N2v viruses. However, newly emerging 2013 H3N2v have acquired antigenic mutations in the hemagglutinin at amino acid position 145 (N145K/R). We estimated the levels of serologic cross-reactivity among humans primed with seasonal influenza A(H3N2) (sH3N2), using postinfection ferret antisera. We also explored age-related HI antibody responses to 2012-2013 H3N2v viruses.

Methods

Human and ferret antisera were tested in HI assays against 1 representative 2012 H3N2v (145N) and 2 2013 H3N2v (145K/R) viruses, together with 9 sH3N2 viruses circulating since 1968.

Results

Low levels of cross-reactivity between the H3N2v and sH3N2 viruses from the 1970s-1990s were observed using postinfection ferret antisera. The overall seroprevalence among the sH3N2-primed population against 2012-2013 H3N2v viruses was >50%, and age-related seroprevalence was observed. Seroprevalence was significantly higher to 2013 H3N2v than to 2012 H3N2v viruses among some children likely to have been primed with A/Sydney/5/97-like (145K) or A/Wuhan/359/95-like viruses (145K).

Conclusions

A single substitution (N145K/R) was sufficient to affect seropositivity to H3N2v viruses in some individuals. Insight into age-related antibody responses to newly emerging H3N2v viruses is critical for risk assessment and pandemic preparedness.

Multiple Genome Constellations of Similar and Distinct Influenza A Viruses Co-Circulate in Pigs During Epidemic Events

Swine play a key role in the ecology and transmission of influenza A viruses (IAVs) between species. However, the epidemiology and diversity of swine IAVs is not completely understood. In this cohort study, we sampled on a weekly basis 132 3-week old pigs for 15 weeks. We found two overlapping epidemic events of infection in which most pigs (98.4%) tested PCR positive for IAVs. The prevalence rate of infection ranged between 0 and 86% per week and the incidence density ranged between 0 and 71 cases per 100 pigs-week. Three distinct influenza viral groups (VGs) replicating as a "swarm" of viruses were identified (swine H1-gamma, H1-beta, and H3-cluster-IV IAVs) and co-circulated at different proportions over time suggesting differential allele fitness. Furthermore, using deep genome sequencing 13 distinct viral genome constellations were differentiated. Moreover, 78% of the pigs had recurrent infections with IAVs closely related to each other or IAVs clearly distinct. Our results demonstrated the molecular complexity of swine IAVs during natural infection of pigs in which novel strains of IAVs with zoonotic and pandemic potential can emerge. These are key findings to design better health interventions to reduce the transmission of swine IAVs and minimize the public health risk.

Charged amino acid variability related to N-glyco -sylation and epitopes in A/H3N2 influenza: Hem -agglutinin and neuraminidase

BACKGROUND

The A/H3N2 influenza viruses circulated in humans have been shown to undergo antigenic drift, a process in which amino acid mutations result from nucleotide substitutions. There are few reports regarding the charged amino acid mutations. The purpose of this paper is to explore the relations between charged amino acids, N-glycosylation and epitopes in hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA).

METHODS

A total of 700 HA genes (691 NA genes) of A/H3N2 viruses were chronologically analyzed for the mutational variants in amino acid features, N-glycosylation sites and epitopes since its emergence in 1968.

RESULTS

It was found that both the number of HA N-glycosylation sites and the electric charge of HA increased gradually up to 2016. The charges of HA and HA1 increased respectively 1.54-fold (+7.0 /+17.8) and 1.08-fold (+8.0/+16.6) and the number of NGS in nearly doubled (7/12). As great diversities occurred in 1990s, involving Epitope A, B and D mutations, the charged amino acids in Epitopes A, B, C and D in HA1 mutated at a high frequency in global circulating strains last decade. The charged amino acid mutations in Epitopes A (T135K) has shown high mutability in strains near years, resulting in a decrease of NGT135-135. Both K158N and K160T not only involved mutations charged in epitope B, but also caused a gain of NYT158-160. Epitope B and its adjacent N-glycosylation site NYT158-160 mutated more frequently, which might be under greater immune pressure than the rest.

CONCLUSIONS

The charged amino acid mutations in A/H3N2 Influenza play a significant role in virus evolution, which might cause an important public health issue. Variability related to both the epitopes (A and B) and N-glycosylation is beneficial for understanding the evolutionary mechanisms, disease pathogenesis and vaccine research.

Antiviral Resistance in Influenza Viruses: Clinical and Epidemiological Aspects

There are three classes of antiviral drugs approved for the treatment of influenza: the M2 ion channel inhibitors (amantadine, rimantadine), neuraminidase (NA) inhibitors (laninamivir, oseltamivir, peramivir, zanamivir), and the protease inhibitor (favipiravir); some of the agents are only available in selected countries [1, 2]. These agents are effective at treating the signs and symptoms of influenza in patients infected with susceptible viruses. Clinical failure has been demonstrated in patients infected with viruses with primary resistance, i.e., antivirals can be present in the virus initially infecting the patient, or resistance may emerge during the course of therapy [3–5]. NA inhibitors are active against all nine NA subtypes recognized in nature [6], including highly pathogenic avian influenza A/H5N1 and recent low-pathogenic avian influenza A/H7N9 viruses [7]. Since seasonal influenza is usually an acute, self-limited illness in which viral clearance usually occurs rapidly due to innate and adaptive host immune responses, the emergence of drug-resistant variants would be anticipated to have limited effect on clinical recovery in otherwise healthy patients, as has been demonstrated clinically [3, 8, 9]. Unfortunately, immunocompromised or immunologically naïve hosts, such as young children and infants or those exposed to novel strains, are more likely to have mutations that confer resistance emergence during therapy; such resistant variants may also result in clinically significant adverse outcomes [10–13].

Recent H3N2 Viruses Have Evolved Specificity for Extended, Branched Human-type Receptors, Conferring Potential for Increased Avidity

Human and avian influenza viruses recognize different sialic acid-containing receptors, referred to as human-type (NeuAcα2-6Gal) and avian-type (NeuAcα2-3Gal), respectively. This presents a species barrier for aerosol droplet transmission of avian viruses in humans and ferrets. Recent reports have suggested that current human H3N2 viruses no longer have strict specificity toward human-type receptors. Using an influenza receptor glycan microarray with extended airway glycans, we find that H3N2 viruses have in fact maintained human-type specificity, but they have evolved preference for a subset of receptors comprising branched glycans with extended poly-N-acetyl-lactosamine (poly-LacNAc) chains, a specificity shared with the 2009 pandemic H1N1 (Cal/04) hemagglutinin. Lipid-linked versions of extended sialoside receptors can restore susceptibility of sialidase-treated MDCK cells to infection by both recent (A/Victoria/361/11) and historical (A/Hong Kong/8/1968) H3N2 viruses. Remarkably, these human-type receptors with elongated branches have the potential to increase avidity by simultaneously binding to two subunits of a single hemagglutinin trimer.