Declines in HIV prevalence can be associated with changing sexual behaviour in Uganda, urban Kenya, Zimbabwe, and urban Haiti

Epidemiology of gonorrhoea: systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions, World Health Organization European Region, 1949 to 2021

BackgroundEpidemiology of Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) infection remains inadequately understood.AimWe aimed to characterise NG epidemiology in Europe.MethodsWe used Cochrane and PRISMA guidelines to systematically review, report, synthesise and analyse NG prevalence data from 1949 to 30 September 2021. Random-effects meta-analyses estimated pooled prevalence. Meta-regression analyses investigated associations and sources of heterogeneity.ResultsThe 844 included publications yielded 1,573 prevalence measures. Pooled prevalence of current urogenital infection was 1.0% (95% CI: 0.7-1.2%) among general populations, 3.2% (95% CI: 1.8-4.8%) among female sex workers, 4.9% (95% CI: 4.2-5.6%) among sexually transmitted infection clinic attendees and 12.1% (95% CI: 8.8-15.8%) among symptomatic men. Among men who have sex with men, pooled prevalence was 0.9% (95% CI: 0.5-1.4%), 5.6% (95% CI: 3.6-8.1%), and 3.8% (95% CI: 2.5-5.4%), respectively, for current urogenital, anorectal or oropharyngeal infection. Current urogenital, anorectal or oropharyngeal infection was 1.45-fold (95% CI: 1.19-1.77%), 2.75-fold (95% CI: 1.89-4.02%) and 2.64-fold (95% CI: 1.77-3.93%) higher among men than women. Current urogenital infection declined 0.97-fold (95% CI: 0.96-0.98%) yearly, but anorectal and oropharyngeal infection increased (1.02-fold; 95% CI: 1.01-1.04% and 1.02-fold; 95% CI: 1.00-1.04%), respectively.ConclusionsNeisseria gonorrhoeae epidemiology in Europe has distinct and contrasting epidemiologies for vaginal sex transmission in heterosexual sex networks vs anal and oral sex transmission in MSM sexual networks. Increased transmission may facilitate drug-resistant strain emergence. Europe is far from achieving the World Health Organization target of 90% incidence reduction by 2030.

Long-term trends of HIV/AIDS incidence in India: an application of joinpoint and age-period-cohort analyses: a gendered perspective

Background

Monitoring the transmission patterns of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in a population is fundamental for identifying the key population and designing prevention interventions. In the present study, we aimed to estimate the gender disparities in HIV incidence and the age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence of HIV in India for identifying the predictors that might have led to changes in the last three decades.

Data and methods

This study utilizes data from the Global Burden of Disease Study for the period 1990-2019. The joinpoint regression analysis was employed to identify the magnitude of the changes in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of HIV. The average annual percentage changes in the incidence were computed, and the age-period-cohort analysis was performed.

Results

A decreasing trend in the overall estimates of age-standardized HIV incidence rates were observed in the period 1990-2019. The joinpoint regression analysis showed that the age-standardized incidence significantly declined from its peak in 1997 to 2019 (38.0 and 27.6 among males and females per 100,000 in 1997 to 5.4 and 4.6, respectively, in 2019). The APC was estimated to be 2.12 among males and 1.24 among females for the period 1990-2019. In recent years, although the gender gap in HIV incidence has reduced, females were observed to bear a proportionately higher burden of HIV incidence. Age effect showed a decline in HIV incidence by 91.1 and 70.1% among males and females aged between 15-19 years and 75-79 years. During the entire period from 1990-1994 to 2015-2019, the RR of HIV incidence decreased by 36.2 and 33.7% among males and females, respectively.

Conclusion

India is experiencing a decline in new HIV infections in recent years. However, the decline is steeper for males than for females. Findings highlight the necessity of providing older women and young women at risk with effective HIV prevention. This study emphasizes the need for large-scale HIV primary prevention efforts for teenage girls and young women.

Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in Europe: systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions

Background

Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection is a globally prevalent, life-long, sexually transmitted infection. This study characterized HSV-2 seroprevalence in Europe for various at-risk populations and proportions of HSV-2 detection in genital ulcer disease (GUD) and in genital herpes. Data on neonatal herpes and HSV-2's contribution to HIV transmission were also reviewed.

Methods

Cochrane and PRISMA guidelines were followed to systematically review, synthesize, and report HSV-2 related findings. The search was conducted in PubMed and Embase databases up to February 20, 2022. Any publication reporting data on the outcome measures was included. Meta-analyses and meta-regressions were conducted.

Findings

211 relevant reports were identified, including 12 overall incidence measures, 294 overall (813 stratified by factors such as age and sex) seroprevalence measures, 13 overall (15 stratified by sex) proportions of HSV-2 detection in clinically diagnosed GUD, and 70 overall (183 stratified by factors such as age and sex) proportions of HSV-2 detection in laboratory-confirmed genital herpes. Pooled mean seroprevalence was 12.4% (95% CI: 11.5-13.3%) among general populations, 27.8% (95% CI: 17.5-39.4%) among men who have sex with men, 46.0% (95% CI: 40.1-51.8%) among people living with HIV and people in HIV discordant couples, and 63.2% (95% CI: 55.5-70.6%) among female sex workers. Most measures showed heterogeneity in HSV-2 seroprevalence. The pooled mean seroprevalence among general populations increased with age and was 0.65-fold (95% CI: 0.58-0.74) lower in men than women. Seroprevalence decreased by 1% per calendar year. Pooled mean proportions of HSV-2 detection in GUD and in genital herpes were 22.0% (95% CI: 15.3-29.6%) and 66.0% (95% CI: 62.9-69.1%), respectively. HSV-2 detection in genital herpes cases was 1.21-fold (95% CI: 1.10-1.32) higher in men compared to women and decreased by 1% per calendar year. Incidence of neonatal herpes indicated an increasing trend.

Interpretation

Although seroprevalence is declining, a significant proportion of Europe's population is infected with HSV-2. HSV-2 accounts for approximately one-fifth of GUD cases and two-thirds of genital herpes cases. Findings support the need to invest in HSV-2 vaccine development, and sexual and reproductive health services.

Funding

Qatar National Research Fund [NPRP 9-040-3-008] and pilot funding from the Biomedical Research Program at Weill Cornell Medicine in Qatar supported this study.

Estimating age specific prevalence and force of infection in Zimbabwe using combined cross-sectional surveys from 2005 to 2015

Objective

Age structured sexual mixing patterns have been noted to be associated with HIV prevalence and force of infection. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the age dependent HIV force of infection using survey cross-sectional data from Zimbabwe.

Methods

We fit generalized additive models namely; linear, semi-parametric, non-parametric and non-proportional hazards models. Using the 2005-06, 2010-11 and 2015 Zimbabwe Demographic Health Surveys data. The Akaike Information Criteria was used to select the best model. The best model was then used to estimate the age dependent HIV prevalence and force-of-infection.

Results

Based on birth year cohort-specific prevalence, the female HIV prevalence reaches the highest peak at around 29 years of age, then declines thereafter. Males have a lower cohort specific prevalence between 15 and 30 years than females. Male cohort-specific prevalence slightly decreases between the ages of 33 and 39, then peaks around the age of 40. The cohort-specific FOI is greater in females than in males throughout all age categories. In addition, the cohort-specific HIV FOI peaked at ages 22 and 40 for females and males, respectively. The observed 18-year age difference between the HIV FOI peaks of males and females.

Conclusion

Our model was appealing because we did not assume that the FOI is stationary over time; however, we used serological survey data to distinguish the FOI's age-and-time effect. The cohort-specific FOI peaked 18 years earlier in females than males, indicative of age-mixing patterns. We recommend interventions that target younger females so as to reduce HIV transmission rates.

Mobility was a significant determinant of reported COVID-19 incidence during the Omicron Surge in the most populous U.S. Counties

BACKGROUND

Significant immune escape by the Omicron variant, along with the emergence of widespread worry fatigue, have called into question the robustness of the previously observed relation between population mobility and COVID-19 incidence.

METHODS

We employed principal component analysis to construct a one-dimensional summary indicator of six Google mobility categories. We related this mobility indicator to case incidence among 111 of the most populous U.S. counties during the Omicron surge from December 2021 through February 2022.

RESULTS

Reported COVID-19 incidence peaked earlier and declined more rapidly among those counties exhibiting more extensive decline in mobility between December 20 and January 3. Based upon a fixed-effects, longitudinal cohort model, we estimated that every 1% decline in mobility between December 20 and January 3 was associated with a 0.63% decline in peak incidence during the week ending January 17 (95% confidence interval, 0.40-0.86%). Based upon a cross-sectional analysis including mean household size and vaccination participation as covariates, we estimated that the same 1% decline in mobility was associated with a 0.36% decline in cumulative reported COVID-19 incidence from January 10 through February 28 (95% CI, 0.18-0.54%).

CONCLUSION

Omicron did not simply sweep through the U.S. population until it ran out of susceptible individuals to infect. To the contrary, a significant fraction managed to avoid infection by engaging in risk-mitigating behaviors. More broadly, the behavioral response to perceived risk should be viewed as an intrinsic component of the natural course of epidemics in humans.

Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in Asia: A systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression

Background

Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection is a prevalent sexually transmitted infection worldwide. This systematic review was conducted to characterize HSV-2 epidemiology in Asia, including the World Health Organization regions of Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific.

Methods

Cochrane and PRISMA guidelines were followed to systematically review and report findings. Pooled mean seroprevalence and proportions of HSV-2 isolated in genital ulcer disease (GUD) and in genital herpes were calculated using random-effects meta-analyses. Meta-regressions were also conducted. Quality assessment was performed.

Findings

HSV-2 measures extracted from 173 publications included 15 seroconversion rates, 11 seroincidence rates, 272 overall seroprevalence measures (678 stratified), 14 proportions of HSV-2 isolation in GUD (15 stratified), and 27 proportions of HSV-2 isolation in genital herpes (36 stratified). Pooled mean seroprevalence was 12.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 11.0-13.2%) among general populations, 23.6% (95% CI: 20.9-26.3%) among men who have sex with men and transgender people, 46.0% (95% CI: 39.2-52.9%) among HIV-positive individuals and individuals in HIV-discordant couples, and 62.2% (95% CI: 58.9-65.6%) among female sex workers. Among general populations, pooled mean seroprevalence increased gradually from 4.7% (95% CI: 3.3-6.3%) in <20-year-old individuals to 26.6% (95% CI: 19.2-34.7%) in >60-year-old individuals. Compared to women and across all populations, men had 0.60-fold (95% CI: 54.0-67.0) lower seroprevalence, that is women had 70% higher seroprevalence. Seroprevalence declined by 0.98-fold (95% CI: 0.97-0.99) per year, that is a 2% decline per year in the last three decades. Pooled mean proportions of HSV-2 isolation in GUD and in genital herpes were 48.2% (95% CI: 34.9-61.6%) and 75.9% (95% CI: 68.3-82.8%), respectively.

Interpretation

Over 1 in 10 individuals is infected with HSV-2, but seroprevalence is declining. HSV-2 accounts for half of GUD cases and three-quarters of genital herpes cases. These findings support the need for an HSV-2 vaccine and universal access to sexual and reproductive health services.

Funding

This work was supported by the Qatar National Research Fund [NPRP 9-040-3-008] and by pilot funding from the Biomedical Research Program at Weill Cornell Medicine in Qatar.

Reductions in HIV incidence are likely to increase the importance of key population programmes for HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa

INTRODUCTION

An efficient HIV response requires that resources be focussed on effective interventions for those most at risk of acquiring and transmitting infection. As HIV epidemics evolve the distribution of HIV across key and other populations will change. Here, the epidemiological concepts underpinning these changes are described and the importance of appropriate allocation of effective interventions is discussed.

DISCUSSION

In many sub-Saharan African countries HIV epidemics have been categorized as "generalized," and HIV testing, treatment and prevention interventions have focussed on the "general" population. As HIV epidemics are better controlled the relative importance of "key" populations will increase, dominating the ongoing burden of disease and providing the potential for repeated outbreaks of HIV if interventions are relaxed. The basic reproductive number (R0 ) describes the potential for an infectious disease to spread at the boundary of invasion or elimination, whereas the effective reproduction number (Rt ) describes the current potential for spread. Heterogeneity in risk means that while Rt is temporarily below one and prevalence declining, the R0 can remain above one, preventing eventual elimination. Patterns of HIV acquisition are often used to guide interventions but inadequately capture the transmission dynamics of the virus and the most efficient approach to controlling HIV. Risks for HIV acquisition are not identical to risks for HIV transmission and will change depending on the epidemiological context. In addition to the challenges in measuring HIV transmission dynamics, there is a tension between using epidemiology to drive the HIV response and the social and political realities constraining how programmes and providers can practically and appropriately focus on key populations and maintain political support. In addition to being well focussed, interventions need to be effective and cost-effective, which requires a better understanding of packages of interventions rather than specific tools.

CONCLUSIONS

Continued control of HIV will increasingly rely on resources, programmes and interventions supporting key populations. Current epidemiological and programmatic approaches for key populations in sub-Saharan Africa are insufficient with a need for an improved understanding of local epidemiology and the effectiveness of interventions.

Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in Latin America and the Caribbean: systematic review, meta-analyses and metaregressions

Objective

To characterise epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Methods

HSV-2 reports were systematically reviewed and synthesised, and findings were reported following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Meta-analyses and metaregressions were conducted.

Finding

102 relevant reports were identified including 13 overall incidence measures, 163 overall (and 402 stratified) seroprevalence measures, and 7 and 10 proportions of virus detection in genital ulcer disease and in genital herpes, respectively. Pooled mean seroprevalence was 20.6% (95% CI 18.7% to 22.5%) in general populations, 33.3% (95% CI 26.0% to 41.0%) in intermediate-risk populations, 74.8% (95% CI 70.6% to 78.8%) in female sex workers, and 54.6% (95% CI 47.4% to 61.7%) in male sex workers, men who have sex with men and transgender people. In general populations, seroprevalence increased from 9.6% (95% CI 7.1% to 12.4%) in those aged <20 years to 17.9% (95% CI 13.6% to 22.5%) in those aged 20–30, 27.6% (95% CI 21.4% to 34.2%) in those aged 30–40 and 38.4% (95% CI 32.8% to 44.2%) in those aged >40. Compared with women, men had lower seroprevalence with an adjusted risk ratio (ARR) of 0.68 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.76). Seroprevalence declined by 2% per year over the last three decades (ARR of 0.98, 95% CI 0.97 to 0.99). Pooled mean proportions of HSV-2 detection in GUD and genital herpes were 41.4% (95% CI 18.9% to 67.0%) and 91.1% (95% CI 82.7% to 97.2%), respectively.

Conclusions

One in five adults is HSV-2 infected, a higher level than other world regions, but seroprevalence is declining. Despite this decline, HSV-2 persists as the aetiological cause of nearly half of GUD cases and almost all of genital herpes cases.

Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in sub-Saharan Africa: Systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions

BACKGROUND

Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection is a prevalent, sexually transmitted infection with a sizable disease burden that is highest in sub-Saharan Africa. This study aimed to characterize HSV-2 epidemiology in this region.

METHODS

Cochrane and PRISMA guidelines were followed to systematically review, synthesize, and report HSV-2 related findings up to August 23, 2020. Meta-analyses and meta-regressions were conducted.

FINDINGS

From 218 relevant publications, 451 overall outcome measures and 869 stratified measures were extracted. Pooled incidence rates ranged between 2.4-19.4 per 100 person-years across populations. Pooled seroprevalence was lowest at 37.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 34.9-39.7%) in general populations and high in female sex workers and HIV-positive individuals at 62.5% (95% CI: 54.8-70.0%) and 71.3% (95% CI: 66.5-75.9%), respectively. In general populations, pooled seroprevalence increased steadily with age. Compared to women, men had a lower seroprevalence with an adjusted risk ratio (ARR) of 0.61 (95% CI: 0.56-0.67). Seroprevalence has decreased in recent decades with an ARR of 0.98 (95% CI: 0.97-0.99) per year. Seroprevalence was highest in Eastern and Southern Africa. Pooled HSV-2 proportion in genital ulcer disease was 50.7% (95% CI: 44.7-56.8%) and in genital herpes it was 97.3% (95% CI: 84.4-100%).

INTERPRETATION

Seroprevalence is declining by 2% per year, but a third of the population is infected. Age and geography play profound roles in HSV-2 epidemiology. Temporal declines and geographic distribution of HSV-2 seroprevalence mirror that of HIV prevalence, suggesting sexual risk behavior has been declining for three decades. HSV-2 is the etiological cause of half of genital ulcer disease and nearly all genital herpes cases with limited role for HSV-1.

FUNDING

This work was supported by pilot funding from the Biomedical Research Program at Weill Cornell Medicine in Qatar and by the Qatar National Research Fund [NPRP 9-040-3-008].

Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in sub-Saharan Africa: Systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions

BACKGROUND

Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection is a prevalent, sexually transmitted infection with a sizable disease burden that is highest in sub-Saharan Africa. This study aimed to characterize HSV-2 epidemiology in this region.

METHODS

Cochrane and PRISMA guidelines were followed to systematically review, synthesize, and report HSV-2 related findings up to August 23, 2020. Meta-analyses and meta-regressions were conducted.

FINDINGS

From 218 relevant publications, 451 overall outcome measures and 869 stratified measures were extracted. Pooled incidence rates ranged between 2.4-19.4 per 100 person-years across populations. Pooled seroprevalence was lowest at 37.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 34.9-39.7%) in general populations and high in female sex workers and HIV-positive individuals at 62.5% (95% CI: 54.8-70.0%) and 71.3% (95% CI: 66.5-75.9%), respectively. In general populations, pooled seroprevalence increased steadily with age. Compared to women, men had a lower seroprevalence with an adjusted risk ratio (ARR) of 0.61 (95% CI: 0.56-0.67). Seroprevalence has decreased in recent decades with an ARR of 0.98 (95% CI: 0.97-0.99) per year. Seroprevalence was highest in Eastern and Southern Africa. Pooled HSV-2 proportion in genital ulcer disease was 50.7% (95% CI: 44.7-56.8%) and in genital herpes it was 97.3% (95% CI: 84.4-100%).

INTERPRETATION

Seroprevalence is declining by 2% per year, but a third of the population is infected. Age and geography play profound roles in HSV-2 epidemiology. Temporal declines and geographic distribution of HSV-2 seroprevalence mirror that of HIV prevalence, suggesting sexual risk behavior has been declining for three decades. HSV-2 is the etiological cause of half of genital ulcer disease and nearly all genital herpes cases with limited role for HSV-1.

FUNDING

This work was supported by pilot funding from the Biomedical Research Program at Weill Cornell Medicine in Qatar and by the Qatar National Research Fund [NPRP 9-040-3-008].

High level risky sexual behavior among persons living with HIV in the urban setting of the highest HIV prevalent areas in Ethiopia: Implications for interventions

INTRODUCTION

Data on the sexual behavior among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) dwelling at HIV prevalent setting located at the periphery of Ethiopia is lacking. Therefore, this study was designed to investigate sexual practice of patients following their antiretroviral therapy (ART) service and factors affecting their behavior.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A facility based cross-sectional study design was employed to assess risky sexual practice and associated factors among HIV positive adults attending ART clinics in Gambella town, Southwest Ethiopia. Risky sexual practice is defined as a custom of getting in at least one of the following practices such as condom-unprotected sex with any partner, having two or more sexual partners and practicing casual sex in the last three months. A total of 352 randomly selected clients were interviewed by using a structured questionnaire. The multivariable logistic regression model was used to examine the association between covariates and the outcome variable.

RESULTS

Majority of the study participants were engaged at least in one of the risky sexual practices (79.8% confidence interval (CI): 75.3% - 83.9%). The multivariable analysis found that the odds of risky sexual practice were higher among individuals who use substances ('khat' users (AOR: 3.82, 95%CI:1.30-11.22), smoke cigarette (AOR:4.90, 95%CI:1.19-12.60), consume alcohol (AOR: 2.59, 95%CI:1.28-5.21)); those who never discuss about safe sex with their partner/s (AOR: 2.21, 95%CI:1.16-4.21); those who have been in attachment for longer duration (more than four years) with their partner (AOR: 3.56, 95%CI: 1.32-9.62); and groups who desire to bear children in their future life (AOR: 3.15, 95%CI:1.40-7.04) as compared to their respective comparison groups.

CONCLUSIONS

A significant number of participants were engaged at least in one of the risky sexual practices which potentially result in super infection by a new or/and drug resistant viral strain/s, and onward transmission of the virus. Thus, an HIV intervention program which focuses on the identified factors has to be implemented to mitigate risk of unsafe sexual behavior of this population group and move towards ending the HIV/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) epidemic.

The Intergenerational Impact of a Slow Pandemic: HIV and Children

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has, over the last four decades, infected millions of young women and their children. Interventions developed in parallel with the spread of the virus have been able to reduce rates of vertical transmission from mother to child. The impact of HIV in children can be direct in children living with HIV (CLHIV) and exposed to HIV and uninfected, or indirect through impacts on their parents, caregivers, and family. In 2018, the United Nations joint programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) estimated that 1.7 million children were living with HIV, 160,000 were newly infected with HIV, and 100,000 died from HIV. Improvement in treatment regimens can improve the life chances of children, but adherence to treatment is a problem, especially for adolescents. Injectable long acting treatments, or interventions to improve service delivery and support for adolescents living with HIV may improve treatment success. In addition to failures of HIV prevention and treatment in CLHIV, there are concerns over exposure to the virus and antivirals leading to delayed child development. To improve the wellbeing of children affected by HIV, social support is necessary, but we need to find ways of enhancing the impact of interventions, perhaps through combining them.

A Review of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Adherence among Female Sex Workers

Globally and in Africa specifically, female sex workers (FSWs) are at an extraordinarily high risk of contracting human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has emerged as an effective and ethical method with which to prevent HIV infection among FSWs. PrEP efficacy is, however, closely linked to adherence, and adherence to PrEP among FSWs is a complex and interrelated process that has been shown to be of importance to public health policies and HIV control and intervention programs. This comprehensive review categorizes barriers to and facilitators of adherence to HIV PrEP for FSWs, and describes five strategies for promoting PrEP adherence among FSWs. These strategies encompass 1) a long-term educational effort to decrease the stigma associated with sex work and PrEP use, 2) education on how PrEP works, 3) lifestyle modification, 4) research on next-generation PrEP products to address the inconvenience of taking daily pills, and 5) integration of PrEP into existing services, such as social services and routine primary care visits, to reduce the economic burden of seeking the medication. Our review is expected to be useful for the design of future PrEP intervention programs. Multidisciplinary intervention should be considered to promote PrEP adherence among FSWs in order to help control the HIV epidemic.

Risk Factors for Infectious Diseases in Urban Environments of Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal of Evidence

Our world is rapidly urbanizing. According to the United Nations, between 1990 and 2015, the percent of the world’s population living in urban areas grew from 43% to 54%. Estimates suggest that this trend will continue and that over 68% of the world’s population will call cities home by 2050, with the majority of urbanization occurring in African countries. This urbanization is already having a profound effect on global health and could significantly impact the epidemiology of infectious diseases. A better understanding of infectious disease risk factors specific to urban settings is needed to plan for and mitigate against future urban outbreaks. We conducted a systematic literature review of the Web of Science and PubMed databases to assess the risk factors for infectious diseases in the urban environments of sub-Saharan Africa. A search combining keywords associated with cities, migration, African countries, infectious disease, and risk were used to identify relevant studies. Original research and meta-analyses published between 2004 and 2019 investigating geographical and behavioral risk factors, changing disease distributions, or control programs were included in the study. The search yielded 3610 papers, and 106 met the criteria for inclusion in the analysis. Papers were categorized according to risk factors, geographic area, and study type. The papers covered 31 countries in sub-Saharan Africa with East Africa being the most represented sub-region. Malaria and HIV were the most frequent disease focuses of the studies. The results of this work can inform public health policy as it relates to capacity building and health systems strengthening in rapidly urbanizing areas, as well as highlight knowledge gaps that warrant additional research.

Generational differences in sexual behaviour and partnering among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men

INTRODUCTION

Given that different generations of gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (gbMSM) have been influenced by substantially different life course events and cultural contexts, we explored differences in sexual behaviour between millennials, Gen-Xers, and baby boomers.

METHODS

Sexually active gbMSM from Metro Vancouver, ≥16 years, were recruited using respondent-driven sampling between 2012-2015 and completed computer-assisted self-interviews every 6 months, up to 2017. To explore differences between generations (millennials born ≥1987, Gen-Xers born 1962-1986, baby boomers born <1962) we used multivariable logistic regression models using baseline, RDS-weighted data. We also examined 6-month trends, stratified by generation, in partner number, prevalence of high-risk sex, and relationship status using hierarchical mixed-effects models.

RESULTS

Among 774 gbMSM (190 millennials, 469 Gen-Xers, 115 baby boomers), median age of first anal sex with a male partner decreased from 20 (aQ1,aQ3:17,25) among baby boomers to 18 (aQ1,aQ3: 16,20) among millennials (x ² (DF=2, N=764)=12.920, p=0.002). After controlling for relevant demographics, differences were observed for some sexual behaviours (i.e., anal sex positioning, giving oral sex, sex toys, masturbation, sexual app/website use, transactional sex) but not others (i.e., receiving oral sex, rimming, fisting, watersports, group sex). At baseline, millennials reported less high-risk sex than other generations but all trended toward less high-risk sex, fewer partners, and regular partnering over the course of the study.

CONCLUSIONS

While there was notable similarity across generations, millennial gbMSM reported earlier age at first anal intercourse and less high-risk sex. However, all generations trended towards less high-risk sex, fewer partners, and regular partnering over time.

Economy, migrant labour and sex work: interplay of HIV epidemic drivers in Zimbabwe over three decades

BACKGROUND

HIV took off rapidly in Zimbabwe during the 1980s. Yet, between 1998 and 2003, as the economy faltered, HIV prevalence declined abruptly and without clear explanation.

METHODS

We reviewed epidemiological, behavioural, and economic data over three decades to understand changes in economic conditions, migrant labour and sex work that may account for observed fluctuations in Zimbabwe's HIV epidemic. Potential biases related to changing epidemic paradigms and data sources were examined.

RESULTS

Early studies describe rural poverty, male migrant labour and sex work as conditions facilitating HIV/sexually transmitted infection (STI) transmission. By the mid-1990s, as Zimbabwe's epidemic became more generalized, research focus shifted to general population household surveys. Yet, less than half as many men than women were found at home during surveys in the 1990s, increasing to 80% during the years of economic decline. Other studies suggest that male demand for sex work fell abruptly as migrant workers were laid off, picking up again when the economy rebounded after 2009. Numbers of clients reported by sex workers, and their STI rates, followed similar patterns reaching a nadir in the early 2000s. Studies from 2009 describe a return to more active sex work, linked to increasing client demand, as well as a revitalized programme reaching sex workers.

CONCLUSION

The importance of the downturn in migrant labour and resultant changes in sex work may be underestimated as drivers of Zimbabwe's rapid HIV incidence and prevalence declines. Household surveys underrepresent populations at the highest risk of HIV/STI acquisition and transmission, and these biases vary with changing economic conditions.

The emerging health impact of voluntary medical male circumcision in Zimbabwe: An evaluation using three epidemiological models

Background

Zimbabwe adopted voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) as a priority HIV prevention strategy in 2007 and began implementation in 2009. We evaluated the costs and impact of this VMMC program to date and in future.

Methods

Three mathematical models describing Zimbabwe’s HIV epidemic and program evolution were calibrated to household survey data on prevalence and risk behaviors, with circumcision coverage calibrated to program-reported VMMCs. We compared trends in new infections and costs to a counterfactual without VMMC. Input assumptions were agreed in workshops with national stakeholders in 2015 and 2017.

Results

The VMMC program averted 2,600–12,200 infections (among men and women combined) by the end of 2016. This impact will grow as circumcised men are protected lifelong, and onward dynamic transmission effects, which protect women via reduced incidence and prevalence in their male partners, increase over time. If other prevention interventions remain at 2016 coverages, the VMMCs already performed will avert 24,400–69,800 infections (2.3–5% of all new infections) through 2030. If coverage targets are achieved by 2021 and maintained, the program will avert 108,000–171,000 infections (10–13% of all new infections) by 2030, costing $2,100–3,250 per infection averted relative to no VMMC. Annual savings from averted treatment needs will outweigh VMMC maintenance costs once coverage targets are reached. If Zimbabwe also achieves ambitious UNAIDS targets for scaling up treatment and prevention efforts, VMMC will reduce the HIV incidence remaining at 2030 by one-third, critically contributing to the UNAIDS goal of 90% incidence reduction.

Conclusions

VMMC can substantially impact Zimbabwe’s HIV epidemic in the coming years; this investment will save costs in the longer term.

Trends in hepatitis B and hepatitis C seroprevalence among blood donors - Haiti, 2005-2014

Background and Objectives

Data on the seroprevalence of viral hepatitis are limited in Haiti; consequently, the epidemiology is poorly described. This study aims to provide a descriptive analysis of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) seroprevalence of blood donations in Haiti.

Materials and Methods

Using Haiti's National Blood Safety Program and Haitian Red Cross reports from 2005 to 2014, we analysed the results of screening tests of donor serum samples to assess HBV and HCV seroprevalence among adults aged 17 to 65 years.

Results

A total of 198 758 donor samples were screened from 2005 to 2014, of which 0·56% were positive for antibody to hepatitis C virus (anti-HCV) and 3·80% were positive for hepatitis B surface antigen. Over the 10-year study period, anti-HCV seroprevalence among blood donors increased by 31% from 0.66% to 0.86% (95% CI: 1·01-1·70); however, this trend was not uniform over time, with a significant decrease from 0·66% in 2005 to 0·39% in 2009 (95% CI: 0·43- 0·82) and 0·43% in 2012 (95% CI: 0·50-0·90). Conversely, HBV decreased significantly by 13% from 3·95% in 2005 to 3·42% in 2014 (95% CI: 0·77-0·97), a trend that was also observed in 2012 and 2013.

Conclusion

The significant, uniform decrease in HBV seroprevalence in more recent years may represent the positive impact of public health interventions in preventing the transmission of blood-borne infections. More research is needed to understand why the trends in HCV transmission are non-uniform and to investigate the significant increase in more recent years.

Risky sexual behaviour and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) among healthcare workers

BACKGROUND

South Africa is known to have one of the highest prevalence rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) globally, with one in seven healthcare workers being HIV-positive. An HIV-positive healthcare workforce is less equipped to respond to the increasing spread of the epidemic.

OBJECTIVES

Assessment of the factors contributing to high HIV prevalence rates among healthcare workers is important in planning the development of human resources. This review sought to identify and understand predominant risky sexual behaviours among healthcare workers in HIV and AIDS-affected countries.

METHODS

This study reviewed articles focusing on sexual behaviour among healthcare workers. Major health science databases (e.g. ProQuest, Cochrane, PubMed and CINAHL) were searched for combinations of keywords including 'healthcare workers', 'risky sexual behaviour' and 'HIV and AIDS'. Articles from a range of countries met inclusion and exclusion criteria.

RESULTS

Findings of the study revealed three main contributing factors: unprotected sex, multiple sex partners and sexual violence. Sexual violence emerged as the dominant risk factor in the majority of the studies. Most research was conducted in developed countries where the HIV infection rate is much lower than it is in developing countries.

CONCLUSION

More research needs to be conducted in developing countries and appropriate strategies should be implemented to reduce sexual violence among healthcare workers. Appropriate procedures on reporting sexual violence coupled with education on HIV and AIDS as well as influencing attitudes and belief systems could assist in reducing the spread of HIV and AIDS within the healthcare workforce while minimising the effect on patient care.

Changing Dynamics of HIV Transmission in Côte d'Ivoire: Modeling Who Acquired and Transmitted Infections and Estimating the Impact of Past HIV Interventions (1976-2015)

INTRODUCTION

Understanding the impact of past interventions and how it affected transmission dynamics is key to guiding prevention efforts. We estimated the population-level impact of condom, antiretroviral therapy (ART), and prevention of mother-to-child transmission activities on HIV transmission and the contribution of key risk factors on HIV acquisition and transmission.

METHODS

An age-stratified dynamical model of sexual and vertical HIV transmission among the general population, female sex workers (FSW), and men who have sex with men was calibrated to detailed prevalence and intervention data. We estimated the fraction of HIV infections averted by the interventions, and the fraction of incident infections acquired and transmitted by different populations over successive 10-year periods (1976-2015).

RESULTS

Overall, condom use averted 61% (95% credible intervals: 56%-66%) of all adult infections during 1987-2015 mainly because of increased use by FSW (46% of infections averted). In comparison, ART prevented 15% (10%-19%) of adult infections during 2010-2015. As a result, FSW initially (1976-1985) contributed 95% (91%-97%) of all new infections, declining to 19% (11%-27%) during 2005-2015. Older men and clients mixing with non-FSW are currently the highest contributors to transmission. Men who have sex with men contributed ≤4% transmissions throughout. Young women (15-24 years; excluding FSW) do not transmit more infections than they acquired.

CONCLUSIONS

Early increases in condom use, mainly by FSW, have substantially reduced HIV transmission. Clients of FSWs and older men have become the main source of transmission, whereas young women remain at increased risk. Strengthening prevention and scaling-up of ART, particularly to FSW and clients of female sex workers, is important.

Documenting and explaining the HIV decline in east Zimbabwe: the Manicaland General Population Cohort

PURPOSE

The Manicaland cohort was established to provide robust scientific data on HIV prevalence and incidence, patterns of sexual risk behaviour and the demographic impact of HIV in a sub-Saharan African population subject to a generalised HIV epidemic. The aims were later broadened to include provision of data on the coverage and effectiveness of national HIV control programmes including antiretroviral therapy (ART).

PARTICIPANTS

General population open cohort located in 12 sites in Manicaland, east Zimbabwe, representing 4 major socioeconomic strata (small towns, agricultural estates, roadside settlements and subsistence farming areas). 9,109 of 11,453 (79.5%) eligible adults (men 17-54 years; women 15-44 years) were recruited in a phased household census between July 1998 and January 2000. Five rounds of follow-up of the prospective household census and the open cohort were conducted at 2-year or 3-year intervals between July 2001 and November 2013. Follow-up rates among surviving residents ranged between 77.0% (over 3 years) and 96.4% (2 years).

FINDINGS TO DATE

HIV prevalence was 25.1% at baseline and had a substantial demographic impact with 10-fold higher mortality in HIV-infected adults than in uninfected adults and a reduction in the growth rate in the worst affected areas (towns) from 2.9% to 1.0%pa. HIV infection rates have been highest in young adults with earlier commencement of sexual activity and in those with older sexual partners and larger numbers of lifetime partners. HIV prevalence has since fallen to 15.8% and HIV incidence has also declined from 2.1% (1998-2003) to 0.63% (2009-2013) largely due to reduced sexual risk behaviour. HIV-associated mortality fell substantially after 2009 with increased availability of ART.

FUTURE PLANS

We plan to extend the cohort to measure the effects on the epidemic of current and future HIV prevention and treatment programmes. Proposals for access to these data and for collaboration are welcome.

Estimating prevalence trends in adult gonorrhoea and syphilis in low- and middle-income countries with the Spectrum-STI model: results for Zimbabwe and Morocco from 1995 to 2016

Objective

To develop a tool for estimating national trends in adult prevalence of sexually transmitted infections by low- and middle-income countries, using standardised, routinely collected programme indicator data.

Methods

The Spectrum-STI model fits time trends in the prevalence of active syphilis through logistic regression on prevalence data from antenatal clinic-based surveys, routine antenatal screening and general population surveys where available, weighting data by their national coverage and representativeness. Gonorrhoea prevalence was fitted as a moving average on population surveys (from the country, neighbouring countries and historic regional estimates), with trends informed additionally by urethral discharge case reports, where these were considered to have reasonably stable completeness. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, high-risk populations not sampled, urban/rural and male/female prevalence ratios, using WHO's assumptions from latest global and regional-level estimations. Uncertainty intervals were obtained by bootstrap resampling.

Results

Estimated syphilis prevalence (in men and women) declined from 1.9% (95% CI 1.1% to 3.4%) in 2000 to 1.5% (1.3% to 1.8%) in 2016 in Zimbabwe, and from 1.5% (0.76% to 1.9%) to 0.55% (0.30% to 0.93%) in Morocco. At these time points, gonorrhoea estimates for women aged 15–49 years were 2.5% (95% CI 1.1% to 4.6%) and 3.8% (1.8% to 6.7%) in Zimbabwe; and 0.6% (0.3% to 1.1%) and 0.36% (0.1% to 1.0%) in Morocco, with male gonorrhoea prevalences 14% lower than female prevalence.

Conclusions

This epidemiological framework facilitates data review, validation and strategic analysis, prioritisation of data collection needs and surveillance strengthening by national experts. We estimated ongoing syphilis declines in both Zimbabwe and Morocco. For gonorrhoea, time trends were less certain, lacking recent population-based surveys.

What Factors are Responsible for Higher Prevalence of HIV Infection among Urban Women than Rural Women in Tanzania?

BACKGROUND

Tanzania is the country hit the hardest by the HIV epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa. The present study was carried out to examine the factors of HIV infection among women who lived in an urban area in Tanzania.

METHODS

The Tanzania HIV/AIDS and Malaria Indicator Survey (2011-12) data was used. The sample size for urban and rural women who had been tested for HIV and ever had sex was 2227 and 6210 respectively. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used.

RESULTS

The present study found that rural women were significantly less likely to be HIV-infected compared to urban women (OR = 0.612, p<0.00). About 10% urban women were HIV-infected whereas 5.8% women in rural areas were HIV positive. Women who had more than five sex partners were significantly four times more likely to be HIV-infected as compared to women who had one sex partner (OR = 4.49, p<0.00).

CONCLUSION

The results of this study suggest that less-educated women, women belonging to poor or poorer quintile, women spending nights outside and women having more than one sex partner were significantly more likely to have HIV infection among urban women as compared to rural women. There is an urgent need for a short and effective program to control the HIV epidemic in urban areas of Tanzania especially for less-educated urban women.

Culture, myths and panic: Three decades and beyond with an HIV/AIDS epidemic in Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe is going through a generalised acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic. The first five years of the epidemic (1985-1990) were characterised by lack of medicines against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and an exponential increase in prevalence (65-fold) and incidence (13-fold), which were fuelled by high-risk sexual behaviour. The high HIV prevalence, mortality and stigma yielded great fear and panic in the population, which are thought to have led to confusion and hopelessness, and, in turn, increased risky sexual behaviour. The country's government and civil society embarked on HIV awareness campaigns that are claimed to have played a central role in slowing down the epidemic since the mid-2000s. HIV-related mortality then fell by 70% between 2003 and 2013, which is attributed to high uptake of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and prevention of mother-to-child transmission (95%) prophylaxis. However, the epidemic has been characterised by a low paediatric ART coverage (35% in 2011 to 46.12% in 2013). Year 2014 saw an increase in adolescent and young adult HIV prevalence, which may be signalling a rebound of the epidemic. A more holistic approach which deals with the epidemic in its socio-political context is required to effectively lower the country's HIV burden.

Behaviors Associated With a Risk of HIV Transmission From HIV-Positive Street Youth to Non-Street Youth in Ukraine

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the extent to which HIV-infected street youth (living part or full time on the streets) exhibit behaviors associated with HIV transmission in their interactions with youth not living on the streets ("non-street youth"). We aimed to determine prevalences and predictors of such "bridging behaviors": inconsistent condom use and needle sharing between HIV-positive street youth and non-street youth.

METHODS

A total of 171 street youth in 3 Ukrainian cites were identified as HIV infected after testing of eligible participants aged 15 to 24 years after random selection of venues. Using data from these youth, we calculated prevalence estimates of bridging behaviors and assessed predictors using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Overall, two-thirds of HIV-infected street youth exhibited bridging behaviors; subgroups with high prevalences of bridging included females (78.3%) and those involved in transactional sex (84.2%). In multivariable analysis, inconsistent condom use with non-street youth was associated with being female (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR], 1.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-1.4), working (aPR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.03-1.4), multiple partners (aPR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2-1.6), and "never" (aPR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.6) or "sometimes" (aPR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.02-1.8) versus "always" sleeping on the street. Needle sharing with non-street youth was associated with being male (aPR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.02-2.0), orphaned (aPR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.8-3.0), and 2 years or less living on the streets (aPR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.5-2.1).

CONCLUSIONS

Bridging behaviors between HIV-infected street youth and non-street youth are common. Addressing the comprehensive needs of street and other at-risk youth is a critical prevention strategy.

Hepatitis B virus infection among pregnant women in Haiti: A cross-sectional serosurvey

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B vaccine administered shortly after birth is highly effective in preventing mother to child transmission (MTCT) of infection. While hepatitis B vaccine was introduced in Haiti as part of a combined pentavalent vaccine in 2012, a birth dose is not yet included in the immunization schedule.

OBJECTIVES

Determine the seroprevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection among pregnant women to evaluate the risk of MTCT.

STUDY DESIGN

We selected 1364 residual serum specimens collected during a 2012 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) sentinel serosurvey among pregnant women attending antenatal care clinics. Haiti was stratified into two regions: West, which includes metropolitan Port-au-Prince, and non-West, which includes all other departments. We evaluated the association between demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and HIV infection with HBV infection.

RESULTS

Of 1364 selected specimens, 1307 (96%) were available for testing. A total of 422 specimens (32.7%) tested positive for total anti-HBc (38.2% in West vs. 27% in non-West, p<0.001), and 33 specimens (2.5%) were HBsAg positive (2.1% in West vs. 3% in non-West, p=0.4). Of HBsAg positive specimens, 79% had detectable HBV DNA. Women aged 30 and older had more than double the odds of positive total anti-HBc than women aged 15-19 years (p<0.001). Women with secondary (adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=0.54; 95% CI: 0.36-0.81) and post-secondary education (aOR=0.40, 95% CI: 0.19-0.79) had lower odds of total anti-HBc positivity compared with women with no education. HIV-status was not associated with HBV infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Haiti has an intermediate endemicity of chronic HBV infection with high prevalence of positive HBV DNA among chronically infected women. Introduction of a universal birth dose of hepatitis B vaccine might help prevent perinatal HBV transmission.

Estimating HIV Prevalence in Zimbabwe Using Population-Based Survey Data

Estimates of HIV prevalence computed using data obtained from sampling a subgroup of the national population may lack the representativeness of all the relevant domains of the population. These estimates are often computed on the assumption that HIV prevalence is uniform across all domains of the population. Use of appropriate statistical methods together with population-based survey data can enhance better estimation of national and subgroup level HIV prevalence and can provide improved explanations of the variation in HIV prevalence across different domains of the population. In this study we computed design-consistent estimates of HIV prevalence, and their respective 95% confidence intervals at both the national and subgroup levels. In addition, we provided a multivariable survey logistic regression model from a generalized linear modelling perspective for explaining the variation in HIV prevalence using demographic, socio-economic, socio-cultural and behavioural factors. Essentially, this study borrows from the proximate determinants conceptual framework which provides guiding principles upon which socio-economic and socio-cultural variables affect HIV prevalence through biological behavioural factors. We utilize the 2010–11 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (2010–11 ZDHS) data (which are population based) to estimate HIV prevalence in different categories of the population and for constructing the logistic regression model. It was established that HIV prevalence varies greatly with age, gender, marital status, place of residence, literacy level, belief on whether condom use can reduce the risk of contracting HIV and level of recent sexual activity whereas there was no marked variation in HIV prevalence with social status (measured using a wealth index), method of contraceptive and an individual’s level of education.

Effect of Couples Counselling on Reported HIV Risk Behaviour among HIV Serodiscordant Couples by ART Use, HIV Status and Gender in Rural Uganda

Background

We examined several measures of self-reported HIV risk behaviour in mutually disclosed sero-discordant couples over time to see if a couples counselling intervention was associated with changes in these behaviors.

Methods

We analysed data from a prospective cohort study of HIV sero-discordant couples in Jinja, Uganda collected between June 2009 and December 2011. Participants received couples counselling, at 3-monthly intervals. We examined trends in reported condom-use, number of concurrent sexual partners, knowledge of HIV serostatus of concurrent partners and condom use of concurrent partners using Generalized Estimating Equation models, comparing responses at study enrollment with responses at six, 12 18 and 24 months of follow-up.

Results

A total of 586 couples were enrolled and the female member was HIV positive in 255 (44%) of them. The median age for female participants was 35 years and 42 years for men. Reported condom use at last sex with spouse increased over time (p<0.001) with the largest increases found among couples where the positive participant never received ART during the study(an increase from 68.8% at enrollment to 97.1% at 24 months). Male participants reported reductions in the number of concurrent sexual partners (p<0.001), increase in the knowledge of the HIV serostatus of these partners (p = 0.001) and a trend towards improved condom-use among non-primary partners (p = 0.070). Reported reduced risky behaviors did not wane over the study period.

Conclusion

Couples counselling resulted in increased condom use among all participants and among men the intervention resulted in reductions in risk behaviour with concurrent sexual partners. Routine counselling for serodiscordant couples should be integrated in routine ART care programs.

The 2001-03 Famine and the Dynamics of HIV in Malawi: A Natural Experiment

BACKGROUND

Food security has deteriorated for many people in developing regions facing high and volatile food prices. Without effective and equitable responses, the situation is likely to worsen due to diminishing access to land and water, competition from non-food uses of agricultural products, and the effects of climate change and variability. Understanding how this will affect the burden and distribution of major diseases such as HIV is critical. This study makes use of the near-experimental conditions created by the Malawi famine to shed new light on this issue.

METHODS

Multilevel, random intercept models were used to relate the change in HIV prevalence at antenatal surveillance sites over the course of the famine to the proportion of rural households requiring food aid in the surrounding district at the famine's peak. Similar models were used to relate this indicator of rural hunger to changes in the composition of the antenatal population. The extent and direction of migration were estimated from a household survey conducted 1-2 years after the famine.

FINDINGS

At rural sites, the change in HIV prevalence was positively and non-linearly related to the extent of rural hunger (P = 0.016), consistent with contemporary accounts of increased transactional sex and with hunger compromising immune function. At non-rural sites, prevalence declined as rural hunger increased (P = 0.006), concentrated in women who self-identified as farmers (P = 0.010). This finding is consistent with contemporary accounts of migration in search of food and work from villages where HIV risk was lower to towns and cities where it was higher. Corroborating this interpretation, the proportion of farmers in the antenatal population was found to rise at non-rural sites as rural hunger increased in the surrounding district (P = 0.015) whereas the proportion fell with increasing rural hunger at rural sites (P<0.001). The models suggest migrants were predominantly farming women under 25 years (P = 0.010). The household survey confirmed that there was a surge of rural-to-urban migration during the famine, particularly by women under 25 years. Migration to less affected rural areas also increased.

CONCLUSION

The Malawi famine appears to have had a substantial effect on HIV's dynamics and demography. Poverty and inequality, commonly considered structural determinants of HIV epidemics, can change rapidly, apparently transmitting their effects with little lag. Epidemic patterns risk being misread if such social and economic change is ignored. Many studies examining HIV prevalence declines have implicated sexual behaviour change but do not appear to have adequately considered the contribution of rural-urban migration. The evidence from Malawi, which links actions that undermined people's food security to changes in the prevalence and distribution of HIV infections, suggests new opportunities for prevention.

Maternal HIV illness and its impact on children well-being and development in Haiti

Little is known about the impact of parental HIV illness on children's well-being and development in the island nations of the Caribbean. Study objectives were to examine mothers' experiences of impact of HIV illness on their children's well-being and development in Haiti. Baseline interviews were conducted between 2006 and 2007 with 25 HIV-positive mothers as part of a larger study that examined the feasibility of a psychosocial support group intervention for HIV-affected youth and their caregivers in central Haiti. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and coded for topical themes by two investigators. Main themes related to impact of maternal HIV illness on children's well-being were the lack of mothers' physical strength to take care of their children, and their difficulties in providing housing and food for their children. Children's school enrollment, attendance, and performance were also affected by their mother's illness. Mothers reported that although their children were HIV-negative, children were distressed by HIV-related stigma that they and their mothers experienced. Findings suggest that children living in HIV-affected families in this region face disadvantages in nutritional, educational, and psychological outcomes. These considerations should be taken into account when designing interventions to support children living in HIV-affected families in this setting.

HIV-prevention knowledge among illiterate and low-literate women in rural Amhara, Ethiopia

More than 85% of Ethiopia's population lives in rural areas and literacy levels in the country are relatively low. Despite this, little is known about levels of knowledge in regard to HIV/AIDS and condom use among illiterate and low-literate rural individuals. We conducted a cross-sectional study among 200 illiterate to semi-literate women, ages 13 to 24, from two rural communities in the Amhara region of northwestern Ethiopia. Nearly all the women had heard about HIV and AIDS. Among the illiterate individuals (n = 54), 24% did not know that HIV was the cause of AIDS and 48% did not know that HIV could be transmitted by sexual intercourse without a condom with an HIV-infected person. Among the same group, 59% did not know what a condom is. Literacy had a strong positive association with knowledge of HIV transmission and condoms. Thus, due to a generally higher level of literacy (grade 5-8 attainment), very young women (ages 13-20) had better knowledge of HIV transmission and condoms than did women ages 21-24 who by comparison were less literate. Given poor knowledge of HIV transmission and condoms among illiterate and low-literate women in Amhara, targeted HIV-prevention interventions are needed in this region.

Population-level impact of Zimbabwe's National Behavioural Change Programme

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impact of Zimbabwe's National Behavioural Change Programme (NBCP) on biological and behavioral outcomes.

METHODS

Representative household biobehavioral surveys of 18- to 44-year-olds were conducted in randomly selected enumeration areas in 2007 and 2011 to 2012. We examined program impact on HIV prevalence among young women, nonregular partnerships, condom use with nonregular partners, and HIV testing, distinguishing between highly exposed and low-exposed communities and individuals. We conducted (1) difference-in-differences analyses with communities as unit of analysis and (2) analyses of key outcomes by individual-level program exposure.

RESULTS

Four thousand seven hundred seventy-six people were recruited in 2007 and 10,059 in 2011 to 2012. We found high exposure to NBCP in 2011. Prevalence of HIV and reported risky behaviors declined between 2007 and 2011. Community-level analyses showed a smaller decline in HIV prevalence among young women in highly exposed areas (11.0%-10.1%) than low-exposed areas (16.9%-10.3%, P = 0.078). Among young men, uptake of nonregular partners declined more in highly exposed areas (25%-16.8%) than low-exposed areas (21.9%-20.7%, P = 0.055) and HIV testing increased (27.2%-46.1% vs. 31.0%-34.4%, P = 0.004). Individual-level analyses showed higher reported condom use with nonregular partners among highly exposed young women (53% vs. 21% of unexposed counterparts, P = 0.037).

CONCLUSIONS

We conducted the first impact evaluation of a NBCP and found positive effects of program exposure on key behaviors among certain gender and age groups. HIV prevalence among young women declined but could not be attributed to program exposure. These findings suggest substantial program effects regarding demand creation and justify program expansion.

Poverty, food insufficiency and HIV infection and sexual behaviour among young rural Zimbabwean women

Background

Despite a recent decline, Zimbabwe still has the fifth highest adult HIV prevalence in the world at 14.7%; 56% of the population are currently living in extreme poverty.

Design

Cross-sectional population-based survey of 18–22 year olds, conducted in 30 communities in south-eastern Zimbabwe in 2007.

Objective

To examine whether the risk of HIV infection among young rural Zimbabwean women is associated with socio-economic position and whether different socio-economic domains, including food sufficiency, might be associated with HIV risk in different ways.

Methods

Eligible participants completed a structured questionnaire and provided a finger-prick blood sample tested for antibodies to HIV and HSV-2. The relationship between poverty and HIV was explored for three socio-economic domains: ability to afford essential items; asset wealth; food sufficiency. Analyses were performed to examine whether these domains were associated with HIV infection or risk factors for infection among young women, and to explore which factors might mediate the relationship between poverty and HIV.

Results

2593 eligible females participated in the survey and were included in the analyses. Overall HIV prevalence among these young females was 7.7% (95% CI: 6.7–8.7); HSV-2 prevalence was 11.2% (95% CI: 9.9–12.4). Lower socio-economic position was associated with lower educational attainment, earlier marriage, increased risk of depression and anxiety disorders and increased reporting of higher risk sexual behaviours such as earlier sexual debut, more and older sexual partners and transactional sex. Young women reporting insufficient food were at increased risk of HIV infection and HSV-2.

Conclusions

This study provides evidence from Zimbabwe that among young poor women, economic need and food insufficiency are associated with the adoption of unsafe behaviours. Targeted structural interventions that aim to tackle social and economic constraints including insufficient food should be developed and evaluated alongside behaviour and biomedical interventions, as a component of HIV prevention programming and policy.

Global HIV epidemiology: A guide for strategies in prevention and care

Global trends in HIV incidence are estimated typically by serial prevalence surveys in selected sentinel populations or less often in representative population samples. Incidence estimates are often modeled because cohorts are costly to maintain and are rarely representative of larger populations. From global trends, we can see reason for cautious optimism. Downward trends in generalized epidemics in Africa, concentrated epidemics in persons who inject drugs (PWID), some female sex worker cohorts, and among older men who have sex with men (MSM) have been noted. However, younger MSM and those from minority populations, as with black MSM in the United States, show continued transmission at high rates. Among the many HIV prevention strategies, current efforts to expand testing, linkage to effective care, and adherence to antiretroviral therapy are known as "treatment as prevention" (TasP). A concept first forged for the prevention of mother to child transmission, TasP generates high hopes that persons treated early will derive considerable clinical benefits and that lower infectiousness will reduce transmission in communities. With the global successes of risk reduction for PWID, we have learned that reducing marginalization of the at-risk population, implementation of nonjudgmental and pragmatic sterile needle and syringe exchange programs, and offering of opiate substitution therapy to help persons eschew needle use altogether can work to reduce the HIV epidemic. Never has the urgency of stigma reduction and guarantees of human rights been more urgent; a public health approach to at-risk populations requires that to avail themselves of prevention services and they must feel welcomed.

The changing face of HIV in Latin America and the Caribbean

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is a region with similarities and important disparities. In recent years LAC has witnessed achievements, with HIV prevalence rates relatively stable for LA and decreasing for the Caribbean. However average values hide differences. General population HIV prevalence in LAC is 0.4 % on average. In the Caribbean there are fewer new HIV infections but HIV prevalence among adults exceeds 1 % in several countries. It is estimated that 31 % of adults living with HIV in LA and 52 % of adults in the Caribbean are women. Unprotected sex is the main route of HIV transmission in LAC. Men who have sex with men and transgender women are the populations with the highest prevalence (10.6 % and 17.7 % respectively); however other key populations such as female sex workers (4.9 %), drug users (range 1 %-49.7 % for intravenous drug users), prisoners and indigenous populations are also important. LAC has the highest anti-retroviral treatment coverage of any low- and middle-income region in the world, but women and children are less likely than men to receive treatment. There is an important pending agenda to address the gaps in information, prevention, and care for HIV in LAC.

Perceived vulnerability and HIV testing among youth in Cape Town, South Africa

The importance of perceived vulnerability to risk-reducing behaviors, including HIV testing, is fairly established, especially among youth in sub-Saharan Africa. Yet, the majority of studies that examined this important relationship used cross-sectional data that inherently assume that perceived vulnerability does not change. While these studies have been useful, the assumption of perceived vulnerability as time invariant is a major flaw and has largely limited the practical usefulness of this variable in AIDS prevention and programing. Using longitudinal data and applying random-effects logit models, this study makes a major contribution to scholarship by examining if changes in perceived vulnerability associate with a change to test for HIV among 857 young people in Cape Town, South Africa. Results show that female youth who changed their risk perceptions were more likely to also change to test for HIV, but the effects were completely attenuated after controlling for theoretically relevant variables. No significant relationships were observed for males. Also, females who were virgins at wave 2 but had sex between waves were significantly more likely to have changed to test for HIV. Of most importance was that sexual behavior eliminated the effects of change in risk perceptions suggesting that a change in perception may have occurred as a result of changes in sexual behavior. AIDS prevention programs must pay particular attention to helping youth become aware of their vulnerability to HIV risks, especially as these have implications for risk-reducing behaviors, especially for females who are burdened.

Sexual risk behaviors among adolescents in Port-au-Prince, Haiti

Engagement in sexual activity among Haitian youth is increasing. The present cross-sectional study examined the independent correlates of sexual risk behaviors among 200 (108 male/92 female) 13-18 year-old adolescents in Port-au-Prince, Haiti using face-to-face interviews. The majority (60.0 %) had engaged in sexual intercourse. Multivariate modeling found males to be 3.52 times more likely to have had sex, 5.42 times more likely to report sexual debut before age 14, 9.75 times more likely to have >1 sexual partner, and 3.33 times more likely to not have used a condom during last sex. Adolescents living with parents, grandparents, aunts or uncles were less likely to report having unprotected sex compared with those without adult family members in the home (AOR range 0.26-0.51). The high prevalence of risky sex among males and the protective influence of stable family cohesiveness have important implications for HIV prevention efforts.

Public policy, health system, and community actions against illness as platforms for response to NCDs in Tanzania: a narrative review

BACKGROUND

Most low- and middle- income countries are facing a rise of the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) alongside the persistent burden of infectious diseases. This narrative review aims to provide an inventory of how the existing policy environment, health system, and communities are addressing the NCDs situation in Tanzania and identify gaps for advancing the NCD research and policy agenda.

METHODOLOGY

A literature search was performed on PubMed and Google scholar with full text retrieval from HINARI of English language articles published between 2000 and 2012. Documents were read to extract information on what Tanzanian actors were doing that contributed to NCDs prevention, treatment, and control, and a narration was written out of these. Reference lists of all retrieved articles were searched for additional relevant articles. Websites of organizations active in the field of NCDs including the Government of Tanzania and WHO were searched for reports and grey literature.

RESULTS

Lack of a specific and overarching NCD policy has slowed and fragmented the implementation of existing strategies to prevent and control NCDs and their determinants. The health system is not prepared to deal with the rising NCD burden although there are random initiatives to improve this situation. How the community is responding to these emerging conditions is still unknown, and the current health-seeking behavior and perceptions on the risk factors may not favor control of NCDs and their risk factors.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

There is limited information on the burden and determinants of NCDs to inform the design of an integrative and multisectorial policy. Evidence on effective interventions for NCD services in primary care levels and on community perceptions on NCDs and their care seeking is virtually absent. Research and public health interventions must be anchored in the policy, health system, and community platforms for a holistic response.

Spatial variability in HIV prevalence declines in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa

Evidence suggests substantial declines in HIV prevalence in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. However, the observed aggregate declines at the national level may obscure local variations in the temporal dynamics of the infection. Using spatial scan statistics, we identified marked spatial variability in the within-country declines in HIV prevalence in Tanzania, Malawi, Kenya, and Zimbabwe. Our study suggests that the declines in the national HIV prevalence in some of the SSA countries may not be representative of downward trends in prevalence in areas of high HIV prevalence, as much as the result of sharp declines in prevalence in areas of already low HIV prevalence. Our findings provide insights for resource allocation and HIV prevention interventions in these countries.

HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis interest among female sex workers in Guangxi, China

OBJECTIVES

Acceptability of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and willingness to participate in a clinical trial for both safety and efficacy of PrEP were investigated among female sex workers (FSWs) in Guangxi, China.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was performed in three cities in Guangxi. Structured, self-administered questionnaires were used to assess the acceptability of PrEP and the willingness to participate in a clinical trial. Multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to identify predictors.

RESULTS

Among 405 participants, 15.1% had heard of PrEP. If PrEP was deemed to be effective, safe and provided for free, 85.9% reported that they would accept it, and 54.3% of those who accepted PrEP said that they would participate in a clinical trial. The increased acceptability of PrEP was associated with working in male dominated venues, higher income, a poor family relationship, better HIV/AIDS knowledge, not realizing HIV risk from unfamiliar clients, not being forced to use condoms by the gatekeepers, consistent use of condoms, and use of drugs to prevent STD infection. The increased willingness to participate in a clinical trial was associated with a poor family relationship, better HIV/AIDS knowledge, not realizing HIV risk from unfamiliar clients, a willingness to adhere to daily PreP use, and not being concerned about discrimination by others. The main reason for rejecting PrEP or participating in a clinical trial was the concern about the side effects of PrEP.

CONCLUSIONS

Acceptability of PrEP among Guangxi FSWs is relatively high, indicating that PrEP intervention programs may be feasible for Chinese FSWs. Given the fact that most of the participants had never heard of PrEP before, and that family, gatekeepers, and social discrimination could significantly affect its acceptability, a comprehensive mix of multiple interventions is necessary for the successful implementation of a PrEP program among this population in Guangxi.

Individual- and school-level correlates of HIV testing among secondary school students in Kenya

The policy framework guiding Kenya's response to the AIDS epidemic identifies voluntary counseling and testing as crucial to risk reduction and HIV-preventive activities. Yet in Kenya, as in most sub-Saharan countries, voluntary testing rates are low, especially among young people. Using hierarchical linear models, we identify both individual- and teacher/school-level factors that affect voluntary HIV testing among secondary school students in Kenya. Results indicate that adolescents are more likely to test for HIV serostatus when they are knowledgeable about testing, have been involved in HIV/AIDS activities in primary school, have been provided with HIV information in secondary school, perceive themselves as at high risk of contracting HIV or know of someone infected with or who has died from HIV/AIDS, and have ever engaged in sexual intercourse. Barriers include fear of going to testing centers and being perceived as HIV-positive. Teacher/school-level characteristics are relevant for explaining rates of HIV testing, especially among girls. To encourage testing, policymakers should attend to teacher/school-level factors as well as individual characteristics of students.

Between individual agency and structure in HIV prevention: understanding the middle ground of social practice

When HIV prevention targets risk and vulnerability, it focuses on individual agency and social structures, ignoring the centrality of community in effective HIV prevention. The neoliberal concept of risk assumes individuals are rational agents who act on information provided to them regarding HIV transmission. This individualistic framework does not recognize the communities in which people act and connect. The concept of vulnerability on the other hand acknowledges the social world, but mainly as social barriers that make it difficult for individuals to act. Neither approach to HIV prevention offers understanding of community practices or collective agency, both central to success in HIV prevention to date. Drawing on examples of the social transformation achieved by community action in Australia and Brazil, this article focuses on this middle ground and its role in effective HIV prevention.

Translation of biomedical prevention strategies for HIV: prospects and pitfalls

Early achievements in biomedical approaches for HIV prevention included physical barriers (condoms), clean injection equipment (both for medical use and for injection drug users), blood and blood product safety, and prevention of mother-to-child transmission. In recent years, antiretroviral drugs to reduce the risk of transmission (when the infected person takes the medicines; treatment as prevention) or reduce the risk of acquisition (when the seronegative person takes them; preexposure prophylaxis) have proven to be efficacious. Circumcision of men has also been a major tool relevant for higher prevalence regions such as sub-Saharan Africa. Well-established prevention strategies in the control of sexually transmitted diseases and tuberculosis are highly relevant for HIV (ie, screening, linkage to care, early treatment, and contact tracing). Unfortunately, only slow progress is being made in some available HIV-prevention strategies such as family planning for HIV-infected women who do not want more children and prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission. Current studies seek to integrate strategies into approaches that combine biomedical, behavioral, and structural methods to achieve prevention synergies. This review identifies the major biomedical approaches demonstrated to be efficacious that are now available. We also highlight the need for behavioral risk reduction and adherence as essential components of any biomedical approach.

Decline in sexual risk behaviours among young people in Zambia (2000-2009): do neighbourhood contextual effects play a role?

OBJECTIVE

This study examined trends in premarital sex, multiple partnership and condom use among young people (15-24 years) in Zambia from 2000 to 2009, and assessed the effects of individual and neighbourhood variables on these sexual behaviour indicators in 2000 and 2009.

METHODOLOGY

We analysed data from the Zambia Sexual Behaviour Survey, conducted in 2000, 2003, 2005 and 2009. Multi-stage cluster sampling was used to select 385 neighbourhoods, giving a population sample of 6,500 young people. Using linear-by-linear trend test, trends in the three indicators were examined. Multilevel logistic regression was used to assess the effects of individual and neighbourhood variables on the indicators.

RESULTS

Premarital sex among young people decreased significantly from 51 to 42% between 2000 and 2009. Multiple partnerships of men also decreased from 26 to 14% during the same period. The use of condoms by young people remained stable during this period. Full multilevel regression models explained 29 and 34% of the neighbourhood variance of premarital sex in 2000 and 2009. For multiple partnerships and condom use, the explained variance was 29 and 18% in 2000; whereas in 2009 it was extremely low. Urban residence and living in neighbourhood with higher average duration of residence were associated with low premarital sex and higher condom use. Living in a neighbourhood with higher average level of comprehensive knowledge of HIV was associated with less risky sexual behaviour.

CONCLUSION

Declining trends in premarital sex and multiple partnerships are among the factors that might explain the decrease in HIV incidence in Zambia among young people. However, condom use among young people has remained low and stable over the years. The results also suggest that behaviour change interventions should take stock of the social context when introducing individual-level programmes because neighbourhood factors play a considerable role in influencing sexual behaviour.

The Continuing Challenge of Reducing HIV Risk among Haitian Youth

There is a dire need for interventions that will address the multiple factors—poverty, substance use, early sexual debut, and violence—that influence Haitian youth’s engagement in risky behaviors. The deteriorating socioeconomic and political state of the country has had a deleterious effect on the sociocultural milieu and on the boundaries that have heretofore kept risky behaviors in check. Historically, the lakou system, a community-based approach that supports the family unit, has disintegrated, leading to the disruption of traditional parenting patterns. The unstable economic system has also led to the increasing use of children from poor families, who through the restavek system, are sent to work as servants in other households. The breakdown of traditional systems, coupled with the increasing economic and political instability, has had a significant effect on Haitian adolescents. Among boys, increased levels of substance use have been associated with multiple sex partnerships and very early sexual debut. Among girls, extremely high rates of sexual abuse and forced sex have led to relatively high levels of HIV. While the majority of them have been exposed to behavior change messages, behavior change itself has lagged because many adolescents do not accurately perceive their risk exposure. This review explores the risks of HIV transmission among Haitian youth, with a focus on vulnerability factors, including substance use, culture, and the socioeconomic context, and provides recommendations for intervention. An ecosystemic approach, designed specifically for Haitian youth and that takes environmental context and culture into account, is needed.

Intimate partner violence during pregnancy in Zimbabwe: a cross-sectional study of prevalence, predictors and associations with HIV

OBJECTIVE

To describe the occurrence, dynamics and predictors of intimate partner violence (IPV) during pregnancy, including links with HIV, in urban Zimbabwe.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey of 2042 post-natal women aged 15-49 years was conducted in six public primary healthcare clinics in low-income urban Zimbabwe. An adapted WHO questionnaire was used to measure IPV. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with IPV and severe (six or more episodes) IPV during pregnancy.

RESULTS

63.1% of respondents reported physical, emotional and/or sexual IPV during pregnancy: 46.2% reported physical and/or sexual violence, 38.9% sexual violence, 15.9% physical violence and 10% reported severe violence during pregnancy. Physical violence was less common during pregnancy than during the last 12 months before pregnancy (15.9% [95% CI 14.3-17.5] vs. 21.3% [95% confidence interval 19.5-23.1]). Reported rates of emotional (40.3% [95% CI 38.1-42.3] vs. 44.0% [95% CI 41.8-46.1]) and sexual violence (35.6% [95% CI 33.5-37.7] vs. 38.9% [95% CI 36.8-41.0]) were high during and before pregnancy. Associated factors were having a younger male partner, gender inequities, past abuse, problem drinking, partner control of woman's reproductive health and risky sexual practices. HIV status was not associated with either IPV or severe IPV, but reporting a partner with a known HIV status was associated with a lower likelihood of severe abuse.

CONCLUSION

The rates of IPV during pregnancy in Zimbabwe are among the highest ever reported globally. Primary prevention of violence during childhood through adolescence is urgently needed. Antenatal care may provide an opportunity for secondary prevention but this requires further work. The relationship between IPV and HIV is complex in contexts where both are endemic.

Trends in HIV prevalence among young people in generalised epidemics: implications for monitoring the HIV epidemic

Background

Countries measure trends in HIV incidence to assess the impact of HIV prevention and treatment programmes. Most countries have approximated trends in HIV incidence through modelled estimates or through trends in HIV prevalence among young people (aged 15–24 years) assuming they have recently become sexually active and have thus only been recently exposed to HIV.

Methods

Trends in HIV incidence are described and results are compared using three proxy measures of incidence: HIV prevalence among young women attending antenatal clinics (ANCs) in 22 countries; HIV prevalence among young male and female nationally representative household survey respondents in 14 countries; and modelled estimates of adult (ages 15–49 years) HIV incidence in 26 countries. The significance of changes in prevalence among ANC attendees and young survey respondents is tested.

Results

Among 26 countries, 25 had evidence of some decline in HIV incidence and 15 showed statistically significant declines in either ANC data or survey data. Only in Mozambique did the direction of the trend in young ANC attendees differ from modelled adult incidence, and in Mali and Zambia trends among young men differed from trends in adult incidence. The magnitude of change differed by method.

Conclusions

Trends in HIV prevalence among young people show encouraging declines. Changes in fertility patterns, HIV-infected children surviving to adulthood, and participation bias could affect future proxy measures of incidence trends.

Behavioral responses to epidemics in an online experiment: using virtual diseases to study human behavior

We report the results of a study we conducted using a simple multiplayer online game that simulates the spread of an infectious disease through a population composed of the players. We use our virtual epidemics game to examine how people respond to epidemics. The analysis shows that people's behavior is responsive to the cost of self-protection, the reported prevalence of disease, and their experiences earlier in the epidemic. Specifically, decreasing the cost of self-protection increases the rate of safe behavior. Higher reported prevalence also raises the likelihood that individuals would engage in self-protection, where the magnitude of this effect depends on how much time has elapsed in the epidemic. Individuals' experiences in terms of how often an infection was acquired when they did not engage in self-protection are another factor that determines whether they will invest in preventive measures later on. All else being equal, individuals who were infected at a higher rate are more likely to engage in self-protective behavior compared to those with a lower rate of infection. Lastly, fixing everything else, people's willingness to engage in safe behavior waxes or wanes over time, depending on the severity of an epidemic: when prevalence is high, people are more likely to adopt self-protective measures as time goes by; when prevalence is low, a ‘self-protection fatigue’ effect sets in whereby individuals are less willing to engage in safe behavior over time.