Ambient Heat and Sudden Infant Death: A Case-Crossover Study Spanning 30 Years in Montreal, Canada

Sudden deaths in infancy and pesticide exposure: A systematic review

Sudden unexpected deaths in infancy (SUDI) is defined as the unexpected death of an infant in the first year of life, including explained and unexplained death (SIDS). Risk factors, such as sleeping position and passive smoking, have been identified but few studies have addressed the influence of exposure to chemicals in the environment. Pesticides are ubiquitous but little is known about their impact on infant mortality. We conducted a systematic review of studies on SUDI and pesticide exposure present in the MEDLINE database in March 2024. We included epidemiological and toxicological studies on humans. We identified 92 studies in total, 17 of which were included in the analysis. Biases were assessed qualitatively and with the NTP/OHAT evaluation process. Epidemiological studies reported various results. Three studies found an association between SIDS and parental occupational exposure. Conflicting results were obtained in studies of domestic exposure, with half the studies showing no association. One accidental massive exposure to insecticides was associated with an increase in infant mortality. Several studies detected pesticides in brain samples from cases of SIDS, demonstrating exposure to organochlorine and organophosphate, and passage across the blood-brain barrier. Many of these studies were quite old and may therefore not be representative of current exposure levels. Case-control studies may be associated with recall bias or measurement errors. It is not possible to establish a clear association between SUDI and pesticide exposure from our findings. Further epidemiological studies are required. Studies on sudden perinatal deaths with universal definitions would be helpful.

The Influence of Heat on Pediatric and Perinatal Health: Risks, Evidence, and Future Directions

Children, particularly infants and those with chronic conditions, are highly vulnerable to heat-induced health risks, similarly to the elderly. This narrative review synthesizes current evidence on the impact of heat exposure on pediatric and perinatal health. A systematic literature search was conducted using PubMed/MEDLINE and manual reference checks, focusing on studies from 2000 to 2024. Findings indicate that maternal heat exposure is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes, including pre-eclampsia, gestational diabetes, hypertension, and increased hospital admissions. Additionally, prenatal heat stress correlates with preterm birth, low birth weight, birth defects, and stillbirth. In childhood, heat-related health consequences range from heatstroke and dehydration to renal impairment, respiratory diseases, and gastrointestinal infections. Psychosocial effects, including cognitive impairment, sleep disturbances, and mental health issues, have also been reported in school-age children and adolescents. Despite strong epidemiological evidence, critical knowledge gaps remain, including the exact temperature thresholds that increase disease risk and how these thresholds vary by age and underlying health conditions. Urgent public health measures are required to mitigate these risks, while further research is needed to define exposure-response relationships and effective interventions. Addressing the rising burden of heat-related pediatric illness is essential in the context of climate change and increasing global temperatures.

Impact of urban biodiversity and climate change on children's health and well being

In recent decades, biodiversity loss has greatly impacted planetary and human health. Children are at additional risk of adverse effects due to unique biological, developmental, and behavioral factors, as well as their longer exposure to an altered planet as a function of their young age. These effects are heightened for children living in vulnerable socioeconomic conditions. Here, we review the role of biodiversity loss on accelerating the consequences of climate change from the perspective of pediatric health. With the loss of biodiversity's protective role against the consequences of climate change, the adverse effects of the changing planet are impacting pediatric health. For example, trees provide shelter against heat waves, unsealed soil and wetlands mitigate flooding, and rewilded green space hosts high microbial richness and consequently supports immune and mental health. The effects of the loss of biodiversity may impact the discovery and development of novel pharmaceuticals and thus the future of children's medicine as a whole. We also highlight areas for further study and detail efforts that have been made to restore biodiversity, with the aim to improve the current and future health of local pediatric populations. IMPACT: Loss of biodiversity is occurring at a rapid pace affecting the health of the planet and disproportionately pediatric health. This paper describes the role of biodiversity loss in accelerating the impact of climate change on children's health, and highlights particularly vulnerable populations. This paper details steps that can be taken to maintain and restore biodiversity at the local and global levels to protect these populations and pediatric health in general.

Disparities in the impact of heat wave definitions on emergency department visits during the first year of life among preterm and full-term infants in California

INTRODUCTION

Heat waves will be aggravated due to climate change, making this a critical public health threat. However, heat wave definitions to activate alert systems can be ambiguous, highlighting the need to assess a range of definitions to identify those that contribute to the most adverse health outcomes. Additionally, children are highly susceptible to the impacts of heat waves, especially infants, despite the lack of focus on this subpopulation. We aimed to assess the relationship between 30 heat wave definitions and the first all-cause emergency department (ED) visits for California infants. We also examined modification of this relationship by preterm birth status and demographic characteristics to identify possible health disparities.

METHODS

Live-born, singleton deliveries from the Study of Outcomes in Mothers and Infants born in 2014-2018 were included. Thirty heat wave definitions were assessed based on temperature metrics (minimum/maximum temperatures), thresholds (90th; 92.5th; 95th; 97.5th; 99th percentiles), and duration (1-; 2-; 3-days). A time-stratified case-crossover design assessed heat wave impacts on ED visits using infants with a warm season ED visit (May-October) within the first year of life (n = 228,250). Effect modification by preterm birth status, age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, and delivery payment type was also investigated.

RESULTS

Infants demonstrated increased risk of an ED visit with exposure to all heat definitions. The 3-day minimum temperature 99th percentile definition had the highest adjusted odds ratio (AOR: 1.14; 95% CI: 1.05-1.23) for the total population. Term infants were more affected by some heat waves than preterm infants. Effect modification was additionally identified, such as by maternal education.

DISCUSSION

This study provides insight on the heat wave definitions that lead to adverse health outcomes and the identification of the most susceptible infants to these impacts, which has implications on heat-related interventions.

The Impact of Extreme Heat Exposure on Pregnant People and Neonates: A State of the Science Review

The relationship between heat exposure and perinatal morbidity and mortality is of increasing concern as global temperatures rise and extreme heat events become more frequent and intense. Heat exposure can lead to a multitude of harmful outcomes for pregnant individuals and neonates, including hospitalization and death. This state of the science review explored the evidence on the associations between heat exposure and negative health outcomes during pregnancy and the neonatal period. Findings suggest that improving health care provider and patient awareness of heat-related risks and implementing specific interventions could mitigate adverse outcomes. Furthermore, public health and other policy interventions are needed to increase thermal comfort and reduce societal exposure to extreme heat and related risks. Early warning systems, medical alerts, provider and patient education, and increased access to health care and thermal comfort may improve pregnancy and early life health outcomes.

Daily temperature effects on under-five mortality in a tropical climate country and the role of local characteristics

BACKGROUND

Climate change and its subsequent effects on temperature have raised global public health concerns. Although numerous epidemiological studies have shown the adverse health effects of temperature, the association remains unclear for children aged below five years old and those in tropical climate regions.

METHODS

We conducted a two-stage time-stratified case-crossover study to examine the association between temperature and under-five mortality, spanning the period from 2014 to 2018 across all six regions in Malaysia. In the first stage, we estimated region-specific temperature-mortality associations using a conditional Poisson regression and distributed lag nonlinear models. We used a multivariate meta-regression model to pool the region-specific estimates and examine the potential role of local characteristics in the association, which includes geographical information, demographics, socioeconomic status, long-term temperature metrics, and healthcare access by region.

RESULTS

Temperature in Malaysia ranged from 22 °C to 31 °C, with a mean of 27.6 °C. No clear seasonality was observed in under-five mortality. We found no strong evidence of the association between temperature and under-five mortality, with an "M-" shaped exposure-response curve. The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) was identified at 27.1 °C. Among several local characteristics, only education level and hospital bed rates reduced the residual heterogeneity in the association. However, effect modification by these variables were not significant.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests a null association between temperature and under-five mortality in Malaysia, which has a tropical climate. The "M-" shaped pattern suggests that under-fives may be vulnerable to temperature changes, even with a small temperature change in reference to the MMT. However, the weak risks with a large uncertainty at extreme temperatures remained inconclusive. Potential roles of education level and hospital bed rate were statistically inconclusive.

The role of parenthood in worry about overheating in homes in the UK and the US and implications for energy use: An online survey study

Climate change brings an increase in temperatures and a higher frequency of heatwaves. Both have been linked to a rise in suicide rates and violent crime on a population level. However, little is known about the link between mental health and ambient temperatures on an individual level and for particular subgroups. Overheating poses health risks to children and disturbs sleep; leading to the expectation that parents are more worried about their homes getting too hot than non-parents. Two online survey studies (N = 1000 each) were conducted in the UK and the US to understand to what extent parents and an age-matched comparison group without children are worried about overheating and how they differ in their mitigation actions. Findings did not support the main hypotheses around greater overheating worry amongst parents in general, mothers or those with very young children. However, parents indicated a greater likelihood to upgrade or install air-conditioning (US) and to get electric fans (UK). Parents in the UK indicated using more mitigation options to cope with overheating than non-parents. Parents in the US, whilst not reporting doing more actions, were more likely to use air-conditioning to deal with overheating than non-parents. Finally, those parents who mentioned health impacts on children as a reason for worry about overheating, were more concerned about overheating than parents who had other reasons than children's health as a reason for being concerned about overheating. In summary, parental status might have implications for cooling energy use and concern for children's health might increase overheating worry; however, many open questions remain.

Heat waves and health risks in the northern part of Senegal: analysing the distribution of temperature-related diseases and associated risk factors

The Sahelian zone of Senegal experienced heat waves in the previous decades, such as 2013, 2016 and 2018 that were characterised by temperatures exceeding 45°C for up to 3 successive days. The health impacts of these heat waves are not yet analysed in Senegal although their negative effects have been shown in many countries. This study analyses the health impacts of observed extreme temperatures in the Sahelian zone of the country, focusing on morbidity and mortality by combining data from station observation, climate model projections, and household survey to investigate heat wave detection, occurrence of climate-sensitive diseases and risk factors for exposure. To do this, a set of climatic (temperatures) and health (morbidity, mortality) data were collected for the months of April, May and June from 2009 to 2019. These data have been completed with 1246 households' surveys on risk factor exposure. Statistical methods were used to carry out univariate and bivariate analyses while cartographic techniques allowed mapping of the main climatic and health indicators. The results show an increase in temperatures compared to seasonal normal for the 1971-2000 reference period with threshold exceedances of the 90th percentiles (42°C) for the maxima and (27°C) the minima and higher temperatures during the months of May and June. From health perspective, it was noted an increase in cases of consultation in health facilities as well as a rise in declared morbidity by households especially in the departments of Kanel (17.7%), Ranérou (16.1 %), Matam (13.7%) and Bakel (13.7%). The heat waves of May 2013 were also associated with cases of death with a reported mortality (observed by medical staff) of 12.4% unequally distributed according to the departments with a higher number of deaths in Matam (25, 2%) and in Bakel (23.5%) than in Podor (8.4%) and Kanel (0.8%). The morbidity and mortality distribution according to gender shows that women (57%) were more affected than men (43%). These health risks have been associated with a number of factors including age, access to drinkable water, type of fuel, type of housing and construction materials, existence of fan and an air conditioner, and health history.The heat wave recurrence has led to a frequency in certain diseases sensitive to rising temperatures, which is increasingly a public health issue in the Sahelian zone of Senegal.

Asthma mortality attributable to ambient temperatures: A case-crossover study in China

BACKGROUND

Whether ambient temperature exposure contributes to death from asthma remains unknown to date. We therefore conducted a case-crossover study in China to quantitatively evaluate the association and burden of ambient temperature exposure on asthma mortality.

METHODS

Using data from the National Mortality Surveillance System in China, we conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study of 15 888 individuals who lived in Hubei and Jiangsu province, China and died from asthma as the underlying cause in 2015-2019. Individual-level exposures to air temperature and apparent temperature on the date of death and 21 days prior were assessed based on each subject's residential address. Distributed lag nonlinear models based on conditional logistic regression were used to quantify exposure-response associations and calculate fraction and number of deaths attributable to non-optimum ambient temperatures.

RESULTS

We observed a reverse J-shaped association between air temperature and risk of asthma mortality, with a minimum mortality temperature of 21.3 °C. Non-optimum ambient temperature is responsible for substantial excess mortality from asthma. In total, 26.3% of asthma mortality were attributable to non-optimum temperatures, with moderate cold, moderate hot, extreme cold and extreme hot responsible for 21.7%, 2.4%, 2.1% and 0.9% of asthma mortality, respectively. The total attributable fraction and number was significantly higher among adults aged less than 80 years in hot temperature.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to non-optimum ambient temperature, especially moderate cold temperature, was responsible for substantial excess mortality from asthma. These findings have important implications for planning of public-health interventions to minimize the adverse respiratory damage from non-optimum ambient temperature.

Environmental variable importance for under-five mortality in Malaysia: A random forest approach

BACKGROUND

Environmental factors have been associated with adverse health effects in epidemiological studies. The main exposure variable is usually determined via prior knowledge or statistical methods. It may be challenging when evidence is scarce to support prior knowledge, or to address collinearity issues using statistical methods. This study aimed to investigate the importance level of environmental variables for the under-five mortality in Malaysia via random forest approach.

METHOD

We applied a conditional permutation importance via a random forest (CPI-RF) approach to evaluate the relative importance of the weather- and air pollution-related environmental factors on daily under-five mortality in Malaysia. This study spanned from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2016. In data preparation, deviation mortality counts were derived through a generalized additive model, adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality. Analyses were conducted considering mortality causes (all-cause, natural-cause, or external-cause) and data structures (continuous, categorical, or all types [i.e., include all variables of continuous type and all variables of categorical type]). The main analysis comprised of two stages. In Stage 1, Boruta selection was applied for preliminary screening to remove highly unimportant variables. In Stage 2, the retained variables from Boruta were used in the CPI-RF analysis. The final importance value was obtained as an average value from a 10-fold cross-validation.

RESULT

Some heat-related variables (maximum temperature, heat wave), temperature variability, and haze-related variables (PM10, PM10-derived haze index, PM10- and fire-derived haze index, fire hotspot) were among the prominent variables associated with under-five mortality in Malaysia. The important variables were consistent for all- and natural-cause mortality and sensitivity analyses. However, different most important variables were observed between natural- and external-cause under-five mortality.

CONCLUSION

Heat-related variables, temperature variability, and haze-related variables were consistently prominent for all- and natural-cause under-five mortalities, but not for external-cause.

Associations between ambient temperature and risk of preterm birth in Sweden: A comparison of analytical approaches

BACKGROUND

Evidence indicates that high temperatures are a risk factor for preterm birth. Increasing heat exposures due to climate change are therefore a concern for pregnant women. However, the large heterogeneity of study designs and statistical methods across previous studies complicate interpretation and comparisons. We investigated associations of short-term exposure to high ambient temperature with preterm birth in Sweden, applying three complementary analytical approaches.

METHODS

We included 560,615 singleton live births between 2014 and 2019, identified in the Swedish Pregnancy Register. We estimated weekly mean temperatures at 1-km² spatial resolution using a spatiotemporal machine learning methodology, and assigned them at the residential addresses of the study participants. The main outcomes of the study were gestational age in weeks and subcategories of preterm birth (<37 weeks): extremely preterm birth (<28 weeks), very preterm birth (from week 28 to <32), and moderately preterm birth (from week 32 to<37). Case-crossover, quantile regression and time-to-event analyses were applied to estimate the effects of short-term exposure to increased ambient temperature during the week before birth on preterm births. Furthermore, distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) were applied to identify susceptibility windows of exposures throughout pregnancy in relation to preterm birth.

RESULTS

A total of 1924 births were extremely preterm (0.4%), 2636 very preterm (0.5%), and 23,664 moderately preterm (4.2%). Consistent across all three analytical approaches (case-crossover, quantile regression and time-to-event analyses), higher ambient temperature (95th vs 50th percentile) demonstrated increased risk of extremely preterm birth, but associations did not reach statistical significance. In DLNM models, we observed no evidence to suggest an increased effect of high temperature on preterm birth risk. Even so, a suggested trend was observed in both the quantile regression and time-to-event analyses of a higher risk of extremely preterm birth with higher temperature during the last week before birth.

CONCLUSIONS

In Sweden, with high quality data on exposure and outcome, a temperate climate and good quality ante-natal health care, we did not find an association between high ambient temperatures and preterm births. Results were consistent across three complementary analytical approaches.

The Effect of High and Low Ambient Temperature on Infant Health: A Systematic Review

Children, and particularly infants, have physiological, anatomic, and social factors that increase vulnerability to temperature extremes. We performed a systematic review to explore the association between acute adverse infant outcomes (children 0-1 years) and exposure to high and low ambient temperatures. MEDLINE (Pubmed), Embase, CINAHL Plus, and Global Health were searched alongside the reference lists of key papers. We included published journal papers in English that assessed adverse infant outcomes related to short-term weather-related temperature exposure. Twenty-six studies met our inclusion criteria. Outcomes assessed included: infant mortality (n = 9), sudden infant death syndrome (n = 5), hospital visits or admissions (n = 5), infectious disease outcomes (n = 5), and neonatal conditions such as jaundice (n = 2). Higher temperatures were associated with increased risk of acute infant mortality, hospital admissions, and hand, foot, and mouth disease. Several studies identified low temperature impacts on infant mortality and episodes of respiratory disease. Findings on temperature risks for sudden infant death syndrome were inconsistent. Only five studies were conducted in low- or middle-income countries, and evidence on subpopulations and temperature-sensitive infectious diseases was limited. Public health measures are required to reduce the impacts of heat and cold on infant health.

Evidence Base for 2022 Updated Recommendations for a Safe Infant Sleeping Environment to Reduce the Risk of Sleep-Related Infant Deaths

Every year in the United States, approximately 3500 infants die of sleep-related infant deaths, including sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision [ICD-10] R95), ill-defined deaths (ICD-10 R99), and accidental suffocation and strangulation in bed (ICD-10 W75). After a substantial decline in sleep-related deaths in the 1990s, the overall death rate attributable to sleep-related infant deaths have remained stagnant since 2000, and disparities persist. The triple risk model proposes that SIDS occurs when an infant with intrinsic vulnerability (often manifested by impaired arousal, cardiorespiratory, and/or autonomic responses) undergoes an exogenous trigger event (eg, exposure to an unsafe sleeping environment) during a critical developmental period. The American Academy of Pediatrics recommends a safe sleep environment to reduce the risk of all sleep-related deaths. This includes supine positioning; use of a firm, noninclined sleep surface; room sharing without bed sharing; and avoidance of soft bedding and overheating. Additional recommendations for SIDS risk reduction include human milk feeding; avoidance of exposure to nicotine, alcohol, marijuana, opioids, and illicit drugs; routine immunization; and use of a pacifier. New recommendations are presented regarding noninclined sleep surfaces, short-term emergency sleep locations, use of cardboard boxes as a sleep location, bed sharing, substance use, home cardiorespiratory monitors, and tummy time. In addition, additional information to assist parents, physicians, and nonphysician clinicians in assessing the risk of specific bed-sharing situations is included. The recommendations and strength of evidence for each recommendation are published in the accompanying policy statement, which is included in this issue.

Health and Human Wellbeing in China: Do Environmental Issues and Social Change Matter?

How to mitigate greenhouse gas emission and achieve human development remain major sustainability issues, particularly in China. Empirical research on the effects of climate warming and social change on human health and wellbeing is quite fragmented. This study examines the impact of environmental issues and social changes on health and human wellbeing using a time series data of China from 1991 to 2020. Findings show that environmental issues have a negative impact on health and human wellbeing in long run. While the internet is a form of social change that tends to improve health and human wellbeing in the long run. FDI exerts a positive effect on human health, but it does not improve wellbeing in the long run. In contrast, financial development does not improve human health but it has a significant positive impact on wellbeing in the long run. Our empirical insights have important implications for achieving human wellbeing through the pursuit of environmental sustainability and social change.

Hyperthermia and Heat Stress as Risk Factors for Sudden Infant Death Syndrome: A Narrative Review

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Heat stress and hyperthermia are common findings in sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) victims. It has been suggested that thermal stress can increase the risk of SIDS directly via lethal hyperthermia or indirectly by altering autonomic functions. Major changes in sleep, thermoregulation, cardiovascular function, and the emergence of circadian functions occur at the age at which the risk of SIDS peaks-explaining the greater vulnerability at this stage of development. Here, we review the literature data on (i) heat stress and hyperthermia as direct risk factors for SIDS, and (ii) the indirect effects of thermal loads on vital physiological functions.

RESULTS

Various situations leading to thermal stress (i.e., outdoors temperatures, thermal insulation from clothing and bedding, the prone position, bed-sharing, and head covering) have been analyzed. Hyperthermia mainly results from excessive clothing and bedding insulation with regard to the ambient thermal conditions. The appropriate amount of clothing and bedding thermal insulation for homeothermia requires further research. The prone position and bed-sharing do not have major thermal impacts; the elevated risk of SIDS in these situations cannot be explained solely by thermal factors. Special attention should be given to brain overheating because of the head's major role in body heat losses, heat production, and autonomic functions. Thermal stress can alter cardiovascular and respiratory functions, which in turn can lead to life-threatening events (e.g., bradycardia, apnea with blood desaturation, and glottal closure). Unfortunately, thermal load impairs the responses to these challenges by reducing chemosensitivity, arousability, and autoresuscitation. As a result, thermal load (even when not lethal directly) can interact detrimentally with vital physiological functions.

CONCLUSIONS

With the exception of excessive thermal insulation (which can lead to lethal hyperthermia), the major risk factors for SIDS appears to be associated with impairments of vital physiological functions when the infant is exposed to thermal stress.

The effect of global warming on mortality

There is a significant relationship between ambient temperature and mortality. In healthy individuals with no underlying co-morbid conditions, there is an efficient heat regulation system which enables the body to effectively handle thermal stress. However, in vulnerable groups, especially in elderly over the age of 65 years, infants and individuals with co-morbid cardiovascular and/or respiratory conditions, there is a deficiency in thermoregulation. When temperatures exceed a certain limit, being cold winter spells or heat waves, there is an increase in the number of deaths. In particular, it has been shown that at temperatures above 27 °C, the daily mortality rate increases more rapidly per degree rise compared to when it drops below 27 °C. This is especially of relevance with the current emergency of global warming. Besides the direct effect of temperature rises on human health, global warming will have a negative impact on primary producers and livestock, leading to malnutrition, which will in turn lead to a myriad of health related issues. This is further exacerbated by environmental pollution. Public health measures that countries should follow should include not only health-related information strategies aiming to reduce the exposure to heat for vulnerable individuals and the community, but improved urban planning and reduction in energy consumption, among many others. This will reduce the carbon footprint and help avert global warming, thus reducing mortality.

Geospatial indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to assess neighbourhood variation in vulnerability to climate change-related health hazards

BACKGROUND

Although the frequency and magnitude of climate change-related health hazards (CCRHHs) are likely to increase, the population vulnerabilities and corresponding health impacts are dependent on a community's exposures, pre-existing sensitivities, and adaptive capacities in response to a hazard's impact. To evaluate spatial variability in relative vulnerability, we: 1) identified climate change-related risk factors at the dissemination area level; 2) created actionable health vulnerability index scores to map community risks to extreme heat, flooding, wildfire smoke, and ground-level ozone; and 3) spatially evaluated vulnerability patterns and priority areas of action to address inequity.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted to identify the determinants of health hazards among populations impacted by CCRHHs. Identified determinants were then grouped into categories of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity and aligned with available data. Data were aggregated to 4188 Census dissemination areas within two health authorities in British Columbia, Canada. A two-step principal component analysis (PCA) was then used to select and weight variables for each relative vulnerability score. In addition to an overall vulnerability score, exposure, adaptive capacity, and sensitivity sub-scores were computed for each hazard. Scores were then categorised into quintiles and mapped.

RESULTS

Two hundred eighty-one epidemiological papers met the study criteria and were used to identify 36 determinant indicators that were operationalized across all hazards. For each hazard, 3 to 5 principal components explaining 72 to 94% of the total variance were retained. Sensitivity was weighted much higher for extreme heat, wildfire smoke and ground-level ozone, and adaptive capacity was highly weighted for flooding vulnerability. There was overall varied contribution of adaptive capacity (16-49%) across all hazards. Distinct spatial patterns were observed - for example, although patterns varied by hazard, vulnerability was generally higher in more deprived and more outlying neighbourhoods of the study region.

CONCLUSIONS

The creation of hazard and category-specific vulnerability indices (exposure, adaptive capacity and sensitivity sub-scores) supports evidence-based approaches to prioritize public health responses to climate-related hazards and to reduce inequity by assessing relative differences in vulnerability along with absolute impacts. Future studies can build upon this methodology to further understand the spatial variation in vulnerability and to identify and prioritise actionable areas for adaptation.

Climate change and child health: a scoping review and an expanded conceptual framework

Climate change can have detrimental effects on child health and wellbeing. Despite the imperative for a fuller understanding of how climate change affects child health and wellbeing, a systematic approach and focus solely on children (aged <18 years) has been lacking. In this Scoping Review, we did a literature search on the impacts of climate change on child health from January, 2000, to June, 2019. The included studies explicitly linked an alteration of an exposure to a risk factor for child health to climate change or climate variability. In total, 2970 original articles, reviews, and other documents were identified, of which 371 were analysed. Employing an expanded framework, our analysis showed that the effects of climate change on child health act through direct and indirect pathways, with implications for determinants of child health as well as morbidity and mortality from a range of diseases. This understanding can be further enhanced by using a broader range of research methods, studying overlooked populations and geographical regions, investigating the costs and benefits of mitigation and adaptation for child health, and considering the position of climate change and child health within the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Present and future generations of children bear and will continue to bear an unacceptably high disease burden from climate change.

Climate vulnerability of Swedish newborns: Gender differences and time trends of temperature-related neonatal mortality, 1880-1950

BACKGROUND

In resource-poor societies, neonatal mortality (death in the first 28 days of life) is usually very high. Young infants are particularly vulnerable to environmental health risks, which are modified by socioeconomic factors that change over time. We investigated the association between ambient temperature and neonatal mortality in northern Sweden during the demographic transition.

METHODS

Parish register data and temperature data in coastal Västerbotten, Sweden, between 1880 and 1950 were used. Total and sex-specific neonatal mortality was modelled as a function of mean temperature, adjusting for age, seasonality and calendar time, using discrete-time survival analysis. A linear threshold function was applied with a cut point at 14.5 °C (the minimum mortality temperature). Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed. Further analyses were stratified by study period (1800-1899, 1900-1929, and 1930-1950).

RESULTS

Neonatal mortality was 32.1 deaths/1000 live births, higher in boys than in girls, and decreased between 1880 and 1950, with high inter-annual variability. Mean daily temperature was +2.5 °C, ranging from -40.9 °C to +28.8 °C. At -20 °C, the OR of neonatal death was 1.56 (CI 1.30-1.87) compared to the reference at +14.5 °C. Among girls, the OR of mortality at -20 °C was 1.17 (0.88-1.54), and among boys, it was 1.94 (1.53-2.45). A temperature increase from +14.5 to +20 °C was associated with a 25% increase of neonatal mortality (OR 1.25, CI 1.04-1.50). Heat- and cold-related risks were lowest between 1900 and 1929.

CONCLUSIONS

In this remote sub-Arctic region undergoing socio-economic changes, we found an increased mortality risk in neonates related to low but also to high temperature. Climate vulnerability varied across time and was particularly high among boys. This demonstrates that environmental impacts on human health are complex and highly dependent on the specific local context, with many, often unknown, contributing determinants of vulnerability.

Projections of temperature-related cause-specific mortality under climate change scenarios in a coastal city of China

BACKGROUND

Numerous studies have been conducted to project temperature-related mortality under climate change scenarios. However, most of the previous evidence has been limited to the total or non-accidental mortality, resulting in insufficient knowledge on the influence of climate change on different types of disease.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to project future temperature impact on mortality from 16 causes under multiple climate change models in a coastal city of China.

METHODS

We first estimated the baseline exposure-response relationships between daily average temperature and cause-specific mortality during 2009-2018. Then, we acquired downscaled future temperature projections from 28 general circulation models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Finally, we combined these exposure-response associations with projected temperature to estimate the change in the temperature-related death burden in different future decades in comparison to the 2010 s, assuming no demographic changes and population acclimatization.

RESULTS

We found a consistently decreasing trend in cold-related mortality but a steep rise in heat-related mortality among 16 causes under climate change scenarios. Compared with the 2010 s, the net change in the fraction of total mortality attributable to temperature are projected to -0.54% (95% eCI: -1.69% to 0.71%) and -0.38% (95% eCI: -2.73% to 2.12%) at the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. However, the magnitude of future cold and heat effects varied by different causes of death. A net reduction of future temperature-related death burden was observed among 10 out of 15 causes, with estimates ranging from -5.02% (95% eCI: -17.42% to 2.50%) in mental disorders to -1.01% (95% eCI: -5.56% to 3.28%) in chronic lower respiratory disease. Conversely, the rest diseases are projected to experience a potential net increase of temperature-related death burden, with estimates ranging from 0.44% (95% eCI: -4.40% to 6.02%) in ischemic heart disease and 4.80% (95% eCI: -0.04% to 9.84%) in external causes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study indicates that the mortality burden of climate change varied greatly by the mortality categories. Further investigations are warranted to comprehensively understand the impacts of climate change on different types of disease across various regions.

Climate changes reproductive and children's health: a review of risks, exposures, and impacts

Our climate has significantly changed, exceeding what the world has experienced over the last 650,000 years, and has been cited as the most significant health threat of the twenty-first century. Climate change is impacting health in unprecedented ways. While everyone is vulnerable to the health impacts associated with climate change, children are disproportionately affected because of their physical and cognitive immaturity. Climate change impacts that include rising temperatures, extreme weather, rising sea levels, and increasing carbon dioxide levels are associated with a wide range of health issues in children such as asthma, allergies, vector-borne diseases, malnutrition, low birth weight, and post-traumatic stress disorder. Pediatric health providers play a critical role in advancing the science and translating findings to improve public understanding about the link between climate changes and children's health, and establishing strategies to address these issues. This review will provide an overview of research exploring the impact of climate change on children's health impacts, as well as provide recommendations for pediatric research moving forward.

High Ambient Temperature and Infant Mortality in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: A Case-Crossover Study

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the association between heat and infant mortality and identify factors that influence infant vulnerability to heat.

METHODS

We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover analysis of associations between ambient temperature and infant mortality in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, during the warm months of 2000 through 2015. We used conditional logistic regression models to estimate associations of infant mortality with daily temperatures on the day of death (lag 0) and for averaging periods of 0 to 1 to 0 to 3 days before the day of death. We explored modification of associations by individual and census tract-level characteristics and by amounts of green space.

RESULTS

Risk of infant mortality increased by 22.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.0%, 42.6%) for every 1°C increase in minimum daily temperature over 23.9°C on the day of death. We observed limited evidence of effect modification across strata of the covariates.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results contribute to a growing body of evidence that infants are a subpopulation that is particularly vulnerable to climate change effects. Further research using large data sets is critically needed to elucidate modifiable factors that may protect infants against heat vulnerability.

Ambient Air Pollution and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome in Korea: A Time-Stratified Case-Crossover Study

Sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) is an occasional cause of unexpected mortality in infancy. While various etiological factors have been hypothesized, air pollution has been consistently presented as an environmental factor. In this study, we aimed to estimate the risk of SIDS in relation to exposure to air pollution and the effects of its modifying factors. A mortality dataset with supplementary infant mortality survey data from Statistics Korea was used and combined the concentration of ambient air pollution data from AirKorea based on the date of death and residential addresses of the SIDS cases. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated according to birthweight, gestational age, maternal age, and infant age using a time-stratified case-crossover study design. The risk of exposure to particulate matter of less than 10 μm in diameter (PM₁₀), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), carbon monoxide (CO), and sulfur dioxide was estimated. The number of deaths due to SIDS was 454 (253 males and 201 females). The OR per 27.8 µg/m³ increment of PM₁₀ was 1.14 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03–1.25) and that per 215.8 ppb of CO was 1.20 (95% CI: 1.03–1.40) in all infants. In females, an increase in NO₂ and CO levels was associated with a higher risk of SIDS in low-birthweight and preterm infants. The OR per 15.7 ppb increment in NO₂ was highest among preterm infants, with a value of 5.12 (95% CI: 1.27–20.63), and low-birthweight individuals, with a value of 4.11 (95% CI: 1.74–9.72), at a moving average of 0 to 3 days. In males, however, no significant association was found. In the present study, exposure to air pollution was associated with an increased risk of SIDS. This association was more evident in susceptible infants with a low-birthweight or in cases of preterm birth.

Assessing the magnitude and uncertainties of the burden of selected diseases attributable to extreme heat and extreme precipitation under a climate change scenario in Michigan for the period 2041-2070

BACKGROUND

Extreme heat (EH) and extreme precipitation (EP) events are expected to increase with climate change in many parts of the world. Characterizing the potential future morbidity and mortality burden of EH and EP and associated costs, as well as uncertainties in the estimates, can identify areas for public health intervention and inform adaptation strategies. We demonstrate a burden of disease and uncertainty assessment using data from Michigan, USA, and provide approaches for deriving these estimates for locations lacking certain data inputs.

METHODS

Case-crossover analysis adapted from previous Michigan-specific modeling was used to characterize the historical EH-mortality relationship by county poverty rate and age group. Historical EH-associated hospitalization and emergency room visit risks from the literature were adapted to Michigan. In the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's BenMAP software, we used a novel approach, with multiple spatially-varying exposures, to estimate all non-accidental mortality and morbidity occurring on EH days (EH days; days where maximum temperature 32.2-35 C or > 35 C) and EP days. We did so for two time periods: the "historical" period (1971-2000), and the "projected" period (2041-2070), by county.

RESULTS

The rate of all non-accidental mortality associated with EH days increased from 0.46/100,000 persons historically to 2.9/100,000 in the projected period, for 240 EH-attributable deaths annually. EH-associated ED visits increased from 12/100,000 persons to 68/100,000 persons, for 7800 EH-attributable emergency department visits. EP-associated ED visits increased minimally from 1.7 to 1.9/100,000 persons. Mortality and morbidity were highest among those aged 65+ (91% of all deaths). Projected health costs are dominated by EH-associated mortality ($280 million) and EH-associated emergency department visits ($14 million). A variety of sources contribute to a moderate-to-high degree of uncertainty around the point estimates, including uncertainty in the magnitude of climate change, population composition, baseline health rates, and exposure-response estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

The approach applied here showed that health burden due to climate may significantly rise for all Michigan counties by midcentury. The costs to health care and uncertainties in the estimates, given the potential for substantial attributable burden, provide additional information to guide adaptation measures for EH and EP.

Sudden Unexpected Death and the Mammalian Dive Response: Catastrophic Failure of a Complex Tightly Coupled System

In tightly coupled complex systems, when two or more factors or events interact in unanticipated ways, catastrophic failures of high-risk technical systems happen rarely, but quickly. Safety features are commonly built into complex systems to avoid disasters but are often part of the problem. The human body may be considered as a complex tightly coupled system at risk of rare catastrophic failure (sudden unexpected death, SUD) when certain factors or events interact. The mammalian dive response (MDR) is a built-in safety feature of the body that normally conserves oxygen during acute hypoxia. Activation of the MDR is the final pathway to sudden cardiac (SCD) in some cases of sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS), sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP), and sudden cardiac death in water (SCDIW, fatal drowning). There is no single cause in any of these death scenarios, but an array of, unanticipated, often unknown, factors or events that activate or interact with the mammalian dive reflex. In any particular case, the relevant risk factors or events might include a combination of genetic, developmental, metabolic, disease, environmental, or operational influences. Determination of a single cause in any of these death scenarios is unlikely. The common thread among these seemingly different death scenarios is activation of the mammalian dive response. The human body is a complex tightly coupled system at risk of rare catastrophic failure when that "safety feature" is activated.

Spatiotemporal and demographic variation in the association between temperature variability and hospitalizations in Brazil during 2000-2015: A nationwide time-series study

BACKGROUND

Extreme temperature events are known to be adversely associated with a range of health outcomes, but little is known about the effect of less extreme, but more frequent fluctuation in temperature. We examined the spatiotemporal and demographic variation in the effect of temperature variability (TV) on nationwide hospitalizations in Brazil during 2000-2015.

METHODS

Data on daily hospitalizations and weather variables were collected from 1814 cities, comprising 78.4% of Brazilian population. TV was defined as the standard deviation of daily minimum and maximum temperatures during exposure days. City-specific TV effect was estimated using a quasi-Poisson regression model, and then pooled at the national and regional level using meta-analysis. Stratified analyses were performed by sex, 10 age-groups, and 11 cause categories. Meta-regression was applied to city-year-specific estimates to examine the temporal change.

RESULTS

The estimate of TV effect peaked on 0-1 days' exposure, contributing to 3.5% [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.1-3.8%] of hospitalizations nationwide, equalling 221 (95%CI: 200-242) cases per 100,000 population annually. The effect estimate varied across 11 cause categories, which was strongest for respiratory admissions. Males, particular those 10-49 year old were more affected than females but there was no sex difference for the attributable hospitalization rate. The attributable rate for the under-fives was twice as high as for the elderly, and five times higher than in adults. The majority of the most affected cities were located in the central west and the inland of northeast. The risk of hospitalization related to TV showed a significant increase over the 16-year period at the national level.

CONCLUSIONS

In Brazil, the effect of TV on hospitalization is acute, and varies by spatial, sex, age, and cause category. Given there is no evidence regarding TV adaptation, hospitalization burden associated with TV is likely to further increase and warrants consideration when developing future public health policies in the context of climate change.

Establishing Heat Alert Thresholds for the Varied Climatic Regions of British Columbia, Canada

Following an extreme heat event in 2009, a Heat Alert and Response System (HARS) was implemented for the greater Vancouver area of British Columbia (BC), Canada. This system has provided a framework for guiding public health interventions and assessing population response and adaptation to extreme heat in greater Vancouver, but no other parts of BC were covered by HARS. The objective of this study was to identify evidence-based heat alert thresholds for the Southwest, Southeast, Northwest, and Northeast regions to facilitate the introduction of HARS across BC. This was done based on a national approach that considers high temperatures on two consecutive days and the intervening overnight low, referred to as the high-low-high approach. Daily forecast and observed air temperatures and daily mortality counts for May through September of 2004 through 2016 were obtained. For each date (day_t), day_t−2 forecasts were used to assign high temperatures for day_t and day_t+1 and the overnight low. A range of high-low-high threshold combinations was assessed for each region by finding associations with daily mortality using time-series models and other considerations. The following thresholds were established: 29-16-29 °C in the Southwest; 35-18-35 °C in the Southeast; 28-13-28 °C in the Northwest; and 29-14-29 °C in the Northeast. Heat alert thresholds for all regions in BC provide health authorities with information on dangerously hot temperature conditions and inform the activation of protective public health interventions.

Ambient temperature, humidity and hand, foot, and mouth disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The relationship between ambient temperature, humidity and hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has been highlighted in East and Southeast Asia, which showed multiple different results. Therefore, our goal is to conduct a meta-analysis to further clarify this relationship and to quantify the size of these effects as well as the susceptible populations.

METHODS

PubMed, Web of science, and Cochrane library were searched up to November 22, 2017 for articles analyzing the relationships between ambient temperature, humidity and incidence of HFMD. We assessed sources of heterogeneity by study design (temperature measure and exposed time resolution), population vulnerability (national income level and regional climate) and evaluated pooled effect estimates for the subgroups identified in the heterogeneity analysis.

RESULTS

We identified 11 studies with 19 estimates of the relationship between ambient temperature, humidity and incidence of HFMD. It was found that per 1°C increase in the temperature and per 1% increase in the relative humidity were both significantly associated with increased incidence of HFMD (temperature: IRR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.08; relative humidity: IRR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.00-1.02). Subgroup analysis showed that people living in subtropical and middle income areas had a higher risk of incidence of HFMD.

CONCLUSIONS

Ambient temperature and humidity may increase the incidence of HFMD in Asia-Pacific regions. Further studies are needed to clarify the relationship between ambient temperature, humidity and incidence of HFMD in various settings with distinct climate, socioeconomic, and demographic features.

Ambient Temperature and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome in the United States

BACKGROUND

Sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) is a leading cause of infant mortality in the United States. While thermal stress is implicated in many risk factors for SIDS, the association between ambient temperature and SIDS remains unclear.

METHODS

We obtained daily individual-level infant mortality data and outdoor temperature data from 1972 to 2006 for 210 US cities. We applied a time-stratified case-crossover analysis to determine the effect of ambient temperature on the risk of SIDS by season. We stratified the analysis by race, infant age, and climate.

RESULTS

There were a total of 60,364 SIDS cases during our study period. A 5.6°C (10°F) higher daily temperature on the same day was associated with an increased SIDS risk of 8.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.6%, 13.8%) in the summer, compared with a 3.1% decrease (95% CI = -5.0%, -1.3%) in the winter. Summer risks were greater among black infants (18.5%; 95% CI = 9.3%, 28.5%) than white infants (3.6%; 95% CI = -2.3%, 9.9%), and among infants 3-11 months old (16.9%; 95% CI = 8.9%, 25.5%) than infants 0-2 months old (2.7%; 95% CI = -3.5%, 9.2%). The temperature-SIDS association was stronger in climate clusters in the Midwest and surrounding northern regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Temperature increases were associated with an elevated risk of SIDS in the summer, particularly among infants who were black, 3 months old and older, and living in the Midwest and surrounding northern regions.

Physiological stability in an indigenous sleep device: a randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To compare overnight oxygen saturation, heart rate and the thermal environment of infants sleeping in an indigenous sleep device (wahakura) or bassinet to identify potential risks and benefits.

DESIGN

Randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

Family homes in low socio-economic areas in New Zealand.

PATIENTS

200 mainly Māori mothers and their infants.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants received a wahakura or bassinet from birth.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Overnight oximetry, heart rate and temperature at 1 month.

RESULTS

Intention-to-treat analysis for 83 bassinet and 84 wahakura infants showed no significant differences between groups for the mean time oxygen saturation (SpO2) was less than 94% (0.54 min, 95% CI -1.36 to 2.45) or less than 90% (0.22 min, 95% CI -0.56 to 1.00), the mean number of SpO2 dips per hour >5% (-0.19, 95% CI -3.07 to 2.69) or >10% (-0.41, 95% CI -1.63 to 0.81), mean heart rate (1.99 beats/min, 95% CI -1.02 to 4.99), or time shin temperature >36°C (risk ratio (RR): 0.63, 95% CI 0.13 to 2.99) or <34°C (RR: 0.89, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.30). A per-protocol analysis of 45 bassinet and 26 wahakura infants and an as-used analysis of 104 infants in a bassinet and 48 in a wahakura found no significant differences between groups for all outcome measures.

CONCLUSIONS

This indigenous sleep device is at least as safe as the currently recommended bassinet, which supports its use as a sleep environment that offers an alternative way of bed-sharing.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN12610000993099.

Risky Behaviors of Mothers with Infants on Sudden Infant Death Syndrome in Turkey

PURPOSE

Sudden infant death syndrome is the most common cause of death during the post-neonatal period. Factors such as sleeping position, bed sharing, pillow use, smoking during pregnancy and the breastfeeding period constitute risk factors for sudden infant death syndrome. This study aims to identify the risky behaviors of mothers with infants that may put their children at risk for sudden infant death syndrome.

DESIGN AND METHODS

This is a cross-sectional, descriptive study. Data were collected using a questionnaire that was developed by the researchers. The questionnaire was filled out by 456 mothers who applied to the family health center between October 2014 and January 2015.

RESULTS

The greatest risk factor is the infant's sleeping position. A total of 77.9% of the mothers put their babies in bed in a non-supine position; 65.8% used a pillow when they put their babies in bed, 52.9% used a soft mattress, and 28.5% shared their beds with their babies. Prone sleeping was more likely to occur when smoke was present in the home or a pillow was used.

CONCLUSION

Nurses should notify families of the risky behaviors that can cause sudden infant death syndrome and plan appropriate nursing care.

Heatwave and infants' hospital admissions under different heatwave definitions

OBJECTIVES

Data on the health impacts of heatwaves in infants are limited, and this study aimed to examine how heatwaves affect hospital admissions in infants.

METHODS

A quasi-Poisson generalized additive model was used to assess the effects of heatwaves on hospital admissions in infants from 1st January 2005 to 31st December 2015 in Brisbane, Australia, using a series of heatwave definitions after controlling for possible confounders. A case-only analysis was conducted to examine the possible modification effects of personal and community characteristics on the heatwaves effects on infants' hospital admissions.

RESULTS

There was no significant increase in infants' hospital admissions when heatwave intensity was defined as mean temperature ≥90^th percentile or ≥95th percentile of the mean temperature across the study period. When heatwave intensity increased to ≥97th percentile, infants' hospital admissions increased significantly (RR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.10), and this increase raised with the increase of heatwave duration. No modification effect of gender, indigenous status, or Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) level on heatwave effect was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Infants in Brisbane were sensitive to intense heatwaves, and future heat early warning system based on a local evidence-based heatwave definition is needed to protect infants from heatwave impacts. Community-based heatwave adaptation programs aiming at raising the awareness of the adverse health impacts of intense heatwaves among infants' caregivers may relieve the postnatal health care demand in infants.

Is ambient temperature associated with risk of infant mortality? A multi-city study in Korea

BACKGROUND

Although numerous studies have shown increased risk of mortality from elevated temperatures for adults, limited studies have examined temperature's effect on mortality for infants. Our study investigated the city-specific and overall effects of ambient temperature on infant mortality in seven major cities in Korea, 2004-2007.

METHODS

Birth cohort using a linked birth and death records included 777,570 births with 557 all-cause deaths. We estimated city-specific hazard ratios for each city using an extended Cox proportional hazards model with time-dependent covariates. Then we combined city-specific hazard ratios to generate overall hazard ratio across the seven cities using a Bayesian hierarchical model. Stratified analyses were conducted by cause of death (total and SIDS), exposure period (whole gestation, each trimester, lifetime, 1 month before death, and 2 weeks before death), sex, and maternal characteristics.

RESULTS

Overall across the cities, we found significantly positive associations between ambient temperature during 1 month before death or 2 weeks before death and infant mortality from total or SIDS. The overall hazard ratio of infant mortality from total deaths and SIDS for a 1°C increase during 1 month before death was 1.52 (95% CI, 1.46-1.57) and 1.50 (95% CI, 1.35-1.66), respectively. We also found suggestive evidence that some factors such as mother's age may modify the association.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings have implications for establishment of policy to reduce the risk of infant mortality from high ambient temperature under climate change.

Exploring the possible relationship between ambient heat and sudden infant death with data from Vienna, Austria

A non-linear relationship between maximum ambient temperature and number of sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) cases had been reported for Montreal, Canada, for the warm season. In particular, high maximum ambient temperatures were found to be extra-hazardous for infants. The study was replicated with data from Vienna, Austria, applying the same statistical approach. Vienna is roughly comparable to Montreal with regard to temperatures in the warm season, size of population, and number of SIDS cases. Although the Viennese study was powerful enough to detect even smaller effects, the Montrealean results could not be confirmed. The Viennese results do not support the hypothesis of a strong effect of maximum ambient temperature on the risk of SIDS during the warm season.

Spatiotemporal variation in heat-related out-of-hospital cardiac arrest during the summer in Japan

BACKGROUND

Although several studies have reported the impacts of extremely high temperature on cardiovascular diseases, few studies have investigated the spatiotemporal variation in the incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) due to extremely high temperature in Japan.

METHODS

Daily OHCA data from 2005 to 2014 were acquired from all 47 prefectures of Japan. We used time-series Poisson regression analysis combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to assess the temporal variability in the effects of extremely high temperature on OHCA incidence in each prefecture, adjusted for time trends. Spatial variability in the relationships between extremely high temperature and OHCA between prefectures was estimated using a multivariate random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

We analyzed 166,496 OHCA cases of presumed cardiac origin occurring during the summer (June to September) that met the inclusion criteria. The minimum morbidity percentile (MMP) was the 51st percentile of temperature during the summer in Japan. The overall cumulative relative risk at the 99th percentile vs. the MMP over lags 0-10days was 1.21 (95% CI: 1.12-1.31). There was also a strong low temperature effect during the summer periods. No substantial difference in spatial or temporal variability was observed over the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated spatiotemporal homogeneity in the risk of OHCA during periods of extremely high temperature between 2005 and 2014 in Japan. Our findings suggest that public health strategies for OHCA due to extremely high temperatures should be finely adjusted and should particularly account for the unchanging risk during the summer.

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest risk attributable to temperature in Japan

Several studies have estimated the associations between extreme temperatures and mortality and morbidity; however, few have investigated the attributable fraction for a wide range of temperatures on the risk of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). We obtained daily records of OHCA cases in the 47 Japanese prefectures between 2005 and 2014. We examined the relationship between OHCA and temperature for each prefecture using a Poisson regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model. The estimated prefecture-specific associations were pooled at the nationwide level using a multivariate random-effect meta-analysis. A total of 659,752 cases of OHCA of presumed-cardiac origin met the inclusion criteria. Overall, 23.93% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 20.15–26.19) of OHCA was attributable to temperature. The attributable fraction to low temperatures was 23.64% (95% eCI: 19.76–25.87), whereas that of high temperatures was 0.29% (95% eCI: 0.21–0.35). The attributable fraction for OHCA was related to moderate low temperature with an overall estimate of 21.86% (95% eCI: 18.10–24.21). Extreme temperatures were responsible for a small fraction. The majority of temperature-related OHCAs were attributable to lower temperatures. The attributable risk of extremely low and high temperatures was markedly lower than that of moderate temperatures.

Exposure to extreme heat and precipitation events associated with increased risk of hospitalization for asthma in Maryland, U.S.A

BACKGROUND

Several studies have investigated the association between asthma exacerbations and exposures to ambient temperature and precipitation. However, limited data exists regarding how extreme events, projected to grow in frequency, intensity, and duration in the future in response to our changing climate, will impact the risk of hospitalization for asthma. The objective of our study was to quantify the association between frequency of extreme heat and precipitation events and increased risk of hospitalization for asthma in Maryland between 2000 and 2012.

METHODS

We used a time-stratified case-crossover design to examine the association between exposure to extreme heat and precipitation events and risk of hospitalization for asthma (ICD-9 code 493, n = 115,923).

RESULTS

Occurrence of extreme heat events in Maryland increased the risk of same day hospitalization for asthma (lag 0) by 3 % (Odds Ratio (OR): 1.03, 95 % Confidence Interval (CI): 1.00, 1.07), with a considerably higher risk observed for extreme heat events that occur during summer months (OR: 1.23, 95 % CI: 1.15, 1.33). Likewise, summertime extreme precipitation events increased the risk of hospitalization for asthma by 11 % in Maryland (OR: 1.11, 95 % CI: 1.06, 1.17). Across age groups, increase in risk for asthma hospitalization from exposure to extreme heat event during the summer months was most pronounced among youth and adults, while those related to extreme precipitation event was highest among ≤4 year olds.

CONCLUSION

Exposure to extreme heat and extreme precipitation events, particularly during summertime, is associated with increased risk of hospitalization for asthma in Maryland. Our results suggest that projected increases in frequency of extreme heat and precipitation event will have significant impact on public health.

Medullary mediation of the laryngeal adductor reflex: A possible role in sudden infant death syndrome

The laryngeal adductor reflex (LAR) is a laryngeal protective reflex. Vagal afferent polymodal sensory fibres that have cell bodies in the nodose ganglion, originate in the sub-glottal area of the larynx and upper trachea. These polymodal sensory fibres respond to mechanical or chemical stimuli. The central axons of these sensory vagal neurons terminate in the dorsolateral subnuclei of the tractus solitarius in the medulla oblongata. The LAR is a critical, reflex in the pathways that play a protective role in the process of ventilation, and the sychronisation of ventilation with other activities that are undertaken by the oropharyngeal systems including: eating, speaking and singing. Failure of the LAR to operate properly at any time after birth can lead to SIDS, pneumonia or death. Despite the critical nature of this reflex, very little is known about the central pathways and neurotransmitters involved in the management of the LAR and any disorders associated with its failure to act properly. Here, we review current knowledge concerning the medullary nuclei and neurochemicals involved in the LAR and propose a potential neural pathway that may facilitate future SIDS research.

A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales

In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord G_i index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord G_i index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level.

A Case-Crossover Study of Temperature and Infant Mortality in California

BACKGROUND

While most research on temperature and mortality has focused on the elderly, little has concentrated on infants, who may also lack thermoregulatory responses to heat exposure.

METHODS

We examined mean daily apparent temperature, a combination of temperature and humidity, and infant deaths in California during the warm season of May through October 1999 to 2011. Deaths from all causes and specifically from congenital malformations, sudden infant death syndrome, abnormal gestation duration, respiratory causes, and circulatory causes were considered in a time-stratified case-crossover analysis of 12 356 infant deaths.

RESULTS

For all-cause mortality, excess risk was 4.4% (95% confidence interval -0.3, 9.2) per 5.6°C increase for average of same day and previous 3 days apparent temperature (lag 03). The associations for apparent temperature and both all-cause mortality and deaths caused by gestation duration were highest for Black infants (13.3%, 95% CI 0.6, 27.6 and 23.7%, 95% CI -3.3, 58.2, respectively), while White infants had elevated risk for deaths from respiratory causes (44.6%; -0.7, 110.5). We further observed differential effects for neonates (infants aged 28 days and under) and post-neonates (infants above 28 days and under 1 year), and coastal and non-coastal regions. These associations remained even after considering criteria air pollutants.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that infants are a vulnerable subgroup to heat exposure. Further studies should be conducted with a sufficient number of cases of infant deaths in other locales.