Epidemiology of dengue virus in Iquitos, Peru 1999 to 2005: interepidemic and epidemic patterns of transmission

TAK-003: development of a tetravalent dengue vaccine

INTRODUCTION

Dengue incidence has increased over the past few decades. One tetravalent dengue vaccine based on a yellow fever backbone has been approved, but due to increased risk of severe disease in dengue-naïve recipients, its use is limited to individuals with prior dengue exposure.

AREAS COVERED

We summarize the clinical development of TAK-003, a tetravalent dengue vaccine based on a live-attenuated DENV-2 backbone. We discuss vaccine development and preclinical and clinical work leading to a commercially available formulation. TAK-003 is approved in several countries and the WHO-SAGE recommend TAK-003 to be considered for public programs in high transmission areas for individuals aged 6-16 years. Finally, we discuss the potential role of TAK-003 as part of an integrated multimodal strategy for dengue prevention.

EXPERT OPINION

TAK-003 has been assessed in a comprehensive clinical development program; demonstrating sustained efficacy and safety against all four serotypes in baseline seropositive individuals, and against DENV-1 and DENV-2 in seronegative individuals, and has been well tolerated. Effectiveness in a real world setting and safety will be monitored in ongoing and future studies, particularly for DENV-3 and DENV-4, together with the impact of a booster dose. Overall, TAK-003 shows promise as a new tool for dengue prevention.

Serotype-specific epidemiological patterns of inapparent versus symptomatic primary dengue virus infections: a 17-year cohort study in Nicaragua

BACKGROUND

Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease and a major public health problem worldwide. Most primary infections with the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) are inapparent; nonetheless, whether the distribution of symptomatic versus inapparent infections by serotype varies remains unknown. Here, we present (1) the evaluation of a DENV1-4 envelope domain III multiplex microsphere-based assay (EDIII-MMBA) to serotype inapparent primary infections and (2) its application leveraging 17 years of prospective sample collection from the Nicaraguan Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study (PDCS).

METHODS

We analysed primary DENV infections in the PDCS from 2004 to 2022 detected by inhibition ELISA (iELISA) or RT-PCR. First, we evaluated the performance of the EDIII-MMBA for serotyping with samples characterised by RT-PCR or focus reduction neutralisation test. Next, we analysed a subset of inapparent primary DENV infections in the PDCS with the EDIII-MMBA to evaluate the epidemiology of inapparent infections. Remaining infections were inferred using stochastic imputation, taking year and neighbourhood into account. Infection incidence and percentage of inapparent, symptomatic, and severe infections were analysed by serotype.

FINDINGS

Between Aug 30, 2004, and March 10, 2022, a total of 5931 DENV-naive participants were followed in the PDCS. There were 1626 primary infections (382 symptomatic, 1244 inapparent) detected by iELISA or RT-PCR over the study period. The EDIII-MMBA demonstrated excellent overall accuracy (100%, 95% CI 95·8-100) for serotyping inapparent primary DENV infections when evaluated against gold-standard serotyping methods. Of the 1244 inapparent infections, we analysed 574 (46%) using the EDIII-MMBA. We found that the majority of primary infections were inapparent, with DENV3 exhibiting the highest likelihood of symptomatic (pooled odds ratio compared with DENV1: 2·13, 95% CI 1·28-3·56) and severe (6·75, 2·01-22·62) primary infections, whereas DENV2 was similar to DENV1 in both analyses. Considerable within-year and between-year variation in serotype distribution between symptomatic and inapparent infections and circulation of serotypes undetected in symptomatic cases were observed in multiple years.

INTERPRETATION

Our study indicates that case surveillance skews the perceived epidemiological footprint of DENV. We reveal a more complex and intricate pattern of serotype distribution in inapparent infections. The substantial differences in infection outcomes by serotype emphasises the need for vaccines with balanced immunogenicity and efficacy across serotypes.

FUNDING

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (National Institutes of Health) and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

TRANSLATION

For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

One Health Networks for Infectious Diseases Surveillance and Pandemic Preparedness in Central and South America

The SARS-CoV-2 2019 pandemic prompted the emergence of collaborative initiatives within South America and the Caribbean, to tackle common challenges. Many initiatives included local government, international entities, military, academia, and research institutions, united to face the challenges brought by the pandemic. Some collaborations were new, but most were built on top of existing networks developed to prevent and control challenges like zoonotic diseases. In the last 40 years, the U.S. Naval Medical Research Unit (NAMRU) SOUTH has helped ensure the readiness and health of U.S. service members, Peruvian partners, and civilian population through research, surveillance, and global health, covering One Health interconnectedness of human, animal, and environmental health to address zoonotic diseases, antimicrobial resistance, and vector-borne diseases. This article puts together the different communications, data sharing, and initiatives developed throughout South America towards One Health surveillance, focusing on zoonotic pathogens, and to describe the best practices for these networks.

Rapid spread of the emerging cosmopolitan genotype of dengue virus serotype 2, and expansion of dengue virus serotype 1 genotype V in Peru

BACKGROUND

Motivation for the study. This study aimed to analyze the prevalence and distribution of the V genotypes of dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1) and the cosmopolitan genotype DENV-2 in Peru, in order to understand their expansion in different regions; since these viruses can cause important outbreaks in the country. Main findings. A rapid spread and wide distribution of the cosmopolitan DENV-2 genotype was reported in Peru in 2022, following its initial introduction in 2019. DENV-1 genotype V, present in Peru since the 1990s, has now expanded to new Peruvian regions, after previously being restricted to rural and jungle areas in the north of the country. Implications. The results highlight the urgent need to strengthen epidemiological and genomic surveillance systems to monitor and control the spread of these genotypes in Peru, allowing a more rapid response and controlling their potential spread to other regions of the Americas.

OBJECTIVES.

This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence and distribution of dengue virus genotype V serotype 1 (DENV-1) and cosmopolitan genotype serotype 2 (DENV-2) in Peru between 2019 and 2022.

MATERIALS AND METHODS.

The envelope (E) gene region was amplified from 79 serum samples by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and sequenced by next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology. The obtained sequences were subsequently analyzed with bioinformatics tools.

RESULTS.

The study generated envelope gene sequences of DENV-1 and DENV-2 serotypes. Our study revealed a rapid dispersal and wide distribution of the cosmopolitan DENV-2 genotype in several regions of Peru in 2022, as well as the spread of DENV-1 genotype V to new Peruvian regions, along with the cosmopolitan DENV-2 genotype.

CONCLUSIONS.

Our findings suggest the urgent need to strengthen epidemiological and genomic surveillance systems to understand and control the spread of circulating DENV genotypes in Peru. This will allow a more rapid response, as well as the monitoring of its potential dissemination to other countries in the Americas.

Serotype-Specific Epidemiological Patterns of Inapparent versus Symptomatic Primary Dengue Virus Infections: A 17-year cohort study in Nicaragua

Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease and a major public health problem worldwide. Most primary infections with the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) are inapparent; nonetheless, whether the distribution of symptomatic versus inapparent infections by serotype varies remains unknown. Here, we present (1) the evaluation of a multiplex DENV1-4 envelope domain III multiplex microsphere-based assay (EDIII-MMBA) to serotype inapparent primary infections and (2) its application leveraging 17 years of prospective sample collection from the Nicaraguan Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study (PDCS). First, we evaluated the performance of the EDIII-MMBA with samples characterized by RT-PCR or focus reduction neutralization test. Next, we analyzed 46% (N=574) of total inapparent primary DENV infections in the PDCS with the EDIII-MMBA to evaluate the epidemiology of inapparent infections. Remaining infections were inferred using stochastic imputation, taking year and neighborhood into account. Infection incidence and percentage of inapparent, symptomatic, and severe infections were analyzed by serotype. The EDIII-MMBA demonstrated excellent overall accuracy (100%, 95.8-100%) for serotyping symptomatic and inapparent primary DENV infections when evaluated against gold-standard serotyping methods. We found that a significant majority of primary infections were inapparent, with DENV3 exhibiting the highest likelihood of symptomatic and severe primary infections (Pooled OR compared to DENV1 = 2.13, 95% CI 1.28-3.56, and 6.75, 2.01-22.62, respectively), whereas DENV2 was similar to DENV1 in both analyses. Significant within- and between-year variation in serotype distribution between symptomatic and inapparent infections and circulation of serotypes undetected in symptomatic cases were observed in multiple years. Our study indicates that case surveillance skews the perceived epidemiological footprint of DENV. We reveal a more complex and intricate pattern of serotype distribution in inapparent infections. The significant differences in infection outcomes by serotype emphasizes the need for vaccines with balanced immunogenicity and efficacy across serotypes.

Circulation of DENV-2 serotype associated with increased risk of cumulative incidence of severe dengue and dengue with warning signs: A 16-year retrospective study in Peru

Background

Dengue poses a significant public health challenge in Peru and other endemic countries worldwide. While severe dengue is known to be associated with secondary infection at the individual level, the factors that elevate the risk of severe dengue at the population level remain poorly understood. This study leverages over 16 years of secondary data from a Peruvian dengue surveillance system to assess which type of serotype-specific circulation is associated with an increased risk of cumulative incidence of severe dengue or dengue with warning signs (SD-DWS).

Methodology

This is a retrospective analysis of secondary data using the Peruvian Ministry of Health databases of dengue cases and serotyping. A mixed negative binomial regression model for repeated measures over time was employed to estimate the association between the cumulative incidence of reported SD-DWS cases per 100,000 inhabitants and serotype-specific circulation. Crude and adjusted incidence ratios (IRR) were estimated.

Principal findings

The study analyzed data from 2007 to 2022 across 19 regions of Peru, totaling 304 region-years. Data from nearly 58,000 serotype identification reports and 57,966 cases of SD-DWS were analyzed. The regions with most cumulative incidence of SD-DWS per 100,000 inhabitants during 2007 to 2022 were Madre de Dios (3859), Loreto (1518), Ucayali (1492), Tumbes (1335), and Piura (722). The adjusted model revealed a higher risk of cumulative incidence of SD-DWS when there was specific circulation of DENV-123 (aIRR 7.57 CI 4.00 - 14.31), DENV-12 (aIRR 4.66 CI 2.57 - 8.44), DENV-23 (aIRR 3.55 CI 1.75 - 7.21), or when there was circulation of DENV-2 alone or co-circulating with other serotypes (aIRR 27.7 CI 15.46 -49.63).

Conclusions

Circulation of DENV-2 was associated with higher average incidence rate ratios of SD-DWS.

Author summary

We investigated how the circulation of different dengue virus (DENV) serotypes are associated with the incidence of severe dengue and dengue with warning signs in Peru, a country where dengue is endemic. We analyzed 16 years of data from the dengue surveillance system, including nearly 58,000 serotype identification reports and 57,966 cases of severe dengue and dengue with warning signs. We found that regions with specific circulation of DENV-2, either alone or in combination with other serotypes, had higher incidence rates of severe dengue and dengue with warning signs. Our findings highlight the importance of monitoring DENV serotype circulation to manage and prevent severe dengue, especially in regions where DENV-2 is prevalent.

High prevalence of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses in blood donors during a dengue outbreak and an endemic period in Colombia

Objective

Arboviruses pose a challenge in ensuring the supply of pathogen-free blood components because they are not routinely screened in blood banks, and blood components from infected asymptomatic donors could be transfused. This study aimed to detect and characterize arboviral infections in Colombian blood donors.

Methods

In a cross-sectional study, the prevalence of dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV), and chikungunya (CHIKV) viruses and co-infections of blood donors were compared between an epidemic period (November 2019-February 2020, n = 462) and an endemic period (November 2021-August 2022, n = 1,119). Viral RNA from each donor serum was purified, and the viruses were detected using a previously standardized multiplex hemi-nested RT-PCR protocol. Subsequently, donors who tested positive were surveyed 15 days after the detection of the virus to identify clinical characteristics related to the arboviral infection. The prevalences of each virus were presented as percentages and compared between epidemic and endemic periods.

Results

Significantly higher prevalences were found in the epidemic period compared with the endemic period for DENV (14.5 vs. 1.9%), ZIKV (7.8 vs. 0.3%), CHIKV (8 vs. 3.3%), and co-infections (4.3 vs. 0.2%). The survey response rate of positive donors in the two periods was 83/175 (47%). In total, 57% of the donors surveyed were asymptomatic. Symptomatic donors most frequently reported headache (31%), malaise (13%), arthralgia (10%), and fever/chills (8%).

Conclusion

The prevalence observed in epidemic and endemic periods was higher than that reported in other studies in the Americas. The high proportion of asymptomatic cases found, in addition to the mild and nonspecific manifestations among the symptomatic, may limit the effectiveness of the donor selection criteria used to mitigate the risk of transfusion-transmitted arboviruses.

Asymptomatic dengue infection rate: A systematic literature review

Objectives

Dengue infection is spreading worldwide. The clinical spectrum is broad and includes asymptomatic infections. This review provides an overview of the different proportions of asymptomatic infections described in epidemiological studies according to definitions, study designs, and detection methods.

Methods

Medline and Embase databases were searched without restriction of date or language. Studies were included if they reported data on the incidence or prevalence of asymptomatic dengue infections. The data were summarized and classified according to the definitions of the term 'asymptomatic'.

Results

A total of 74 studies were included. The mean proportion of asymptomatic infections among dengue-infected persons was 54% in 50 included studies. The prevalence of dengue infections detected in healthy persons was 0.2% in 24 included studies. The term 'asymptomatic' has been used to refer to 'clinically undetectable infection', but also to 'undiagnosed infection' or 'mild infection'. Only 8% were clinically undetectable laboratory-confirmed dengue infections.

Conclusion

The proportion of asymptomatic dengue infections varied greatly. Studies proving data on clinically undetectable laboratory-confirmed dengue infections were very few, but provided consistent results of low proportions of asymptomatic infections. These data challenge the assumption that the majority of dengue cases are asymptomatic.

Measuring dengue illness intensity: Development and content validity of the dengue virus daily diary (DENV-DD)

BACKGROUND

Dengue is the most prevalent arboviral infection causing an estimated 50-60 million cases of febrile illness globally per year, exacting considerable disease burden. Few instruments exist to assess the patient illness experience, with most based on healthcare provider assessment, lacking standardization in timepoints and symptom assessment. This study aimed to evaluate the content validity of the novel 'Dengue Virus Daily Diary (DENV-DD)', designed to measure symptom intensity and disease burden within outpatient infant to adult populations.

METHODS

The Dengue Illness Index Report Card was used as a foundation to create the DENV-DD, consisting of patient- and observer-reported outcome (PRO/ObsRO) instruments. In two South American dengue-endemic communities, qualitative combined concept elicitation and cognitive debriefing interviews were conducted among individuals and caregivers of children with symptomatic laboratory-confirmed dengue. Interviews were conducted across two rounds allowing DENV-DD modifications. A small-scale quantitative assessment of the DENV-DD was also conducted with data from an independent Dengue Human Infection Model (DHIM) to generate early evidence of feasibility of DENV-DD completion, instrument performance and insight into the sign/symptom trajectory over the course of illness.

RESULTS

Forty-eight participants were interviewed (20 adults, 20 older children/adolescents with their caregivers, 8 caregivers of younger children). A wide spectrum of signs/symptoms lasting 3-15 days were reported with fever, headache, body ache/pain, loss of appetite, and body weakness each reported by > 70% participants. DENV-DD instructions, items and response scales were understood, and items were considered relevant across ages. DHIM data supported feasibility of DENV-DD completion.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings demonstrate content validity of the DENV-DD (PRO/ObsRO instruments) in dengue-endemic populations. Psychometric and cultural validity studies are ongoing to support use of the DENV-DD in clinical studies.

Evaluation of "Caserotek" a low cost and effective artificial blood-feeding device for mosquitoes

Entomological research studies on mosquito vector biology, vector competence, insecticide resistance, dispersal, and survival (using mark-release-recapture techniques) often rely on laboratory-reared mosquito colonies to produce large numbers of consistently reared, aged, and sized mosquitoes. We developed a low-cost blood feeding apparatus that supports temperatures consistent with warm blooded animals, using commonly available materials found in low resource environments. We compare our system ("Caserotek") to Hemotek and glass/membrane feeding methods. Two experiments were conducted with Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus 1762) and one with Anopheles darlingi (Root 1926) (Diptera: Culicidae); 3 replicates were conducted for each experiment. Aedes aegypti female mosquitoes were provided chicken blood once per week for 30 min (Experiment #1) for 14 days or 1 hour (Experiment #2) for 21 days. Anopheles darlingi were fed once for 1 hour (Experiment #3). Blood-feeding rates, survival rates, and egg production were calculated across replicates. Caserotek had a significantly higher 30-min engorgement rate (91.1%) than Hemotek (47.7%), and the glass feeder (29.3%) whereas for 1-hour feeding, Hemotek had a significantly lower engorgement rate than either of the other two devices (78% versus 91%). Thirty-day survival was similar among the feeding devices, ranging from 86% to 99%. Mean egg production was highest for the Caserotek feeder (32 eggs per female) compared to the glass feeder and Hemotek device (21-22 eggs per female). Our new artificial feeding system had significantly higher blood feeding rates than for more expensive artificial systems and was equivalent to other fitness parameters. Caserotek only requires the ability to boil water to maintain blood temperatures using a Styrofoam liner. It can be easily scaled up to large production facilities and used under austere conditions.

Dengue and COVID-19 Co-Circulation in the Peruvian Amazon: A Population-Based Study

The COVID-19 pandemic affected the main Amazon cities dramatically, with Iquitos City reporting the highest seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies during the first COVID-19 wave worldwide. This phenomenon raised many questions about the possibility of a co-circulation of dengue and COVID-19 and its consequences. We carried out a population-based cohort study in Iquitos, Peru. We obtained a venous blood sample from a subset of 326 adults from the Iquitos COVID-19 cohort (August 13-18, 2020) to estimate the seroprevalence of anti-dengue virus (DENV) and anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. We tested each serum sample for anti-DENV IgG (serotypes 1, 2, 3, and 4) and SARS-CoV-2 antibodies anti-spike IgG and IgM by ELISA. We estimated an anti-SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence of 78.0% (95% CI, 73.0-82.0) and an anti-DENV seroprevalence of 88.0% (95% CI, 84.0-91.6), signifying a high seroprevalence of both diseases during the first wave of COVID-19 transmission in the city. The San Juan District had a lower anti-DENV antibody seroprevalence than the Belen District (prevalence ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.82-0.98). However, we did not observe these differences in anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence. Iquitos City presented one of the highest seroprevalence rates of anti-DENV and anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies worldwide, but with no correlation between their antibody levels.

Inapparent infections shape the transmission heterogeneity of dengue

Transmission heterogeneity, whereby a disproportionate fraction of pathogen transmission events result from a small number of individuals or geographic locations, is an inherent property of many, if not most, infectious disease systems. For vector-borne diseases, transmission heterogeneity is inferred from the distribution of the number of vectors per host, which could lead to significant bias in situations where vector abundance and transmission risk at the household do not correlate, as is the case with dengue virus (DENV). We used data from a contact tracing study to quantify the distribution of DENV acute infections within human activity spaces (AS), the collection of residential locations an individual routinely visits, and quantified measures of virus transmission heterogeneity from two consecutive dengue outbreaks (DENV-4 and DENV-2) that occurred in the city of Iquitos, Peru. Negative-binomial distributions and Pareto fractions showed evidence of strong overdispersion in the number of DENV infections by AS and identified super-spreading units (SSUs): i.e. AS where most infections occurred. Approximately 8% of AS were identified as SSUs, contributing to more than 50% of DENV infections. SSU occurrence was associated more with DENV-2 infection than with DENV-4, a predominance of inapparent infections (74% of all infections), households with high Aedes aegypti mosquito abundance, and high host susceptibility to the circulating DENV serotype. Marked heterogeneity in dengue case distribution, and the role of inapparent infections in defining it, highlight major challenges faced by reactive interventions if those transmission units contributing the most to transmission are not identified, prioritized, and effectively treated.

Quantifying heterogeneities in arbovirus transmission: Description of the rationale and methodology for a prospective longitudinal study of dengue and Zika virus transmission in Iquitos, Peru (2014-2019)

Current knowledge of dengue virus (DENV) transmission provides only a partial understanding of a complex and dynamic system yielding a public health track record that has more failures than successes. An important part of the problem is that the foundation for contemporary interventions includes a series of longstanding, but untested, assumptions based on a relatively small portion of the human population; i.e., people who are convenient to study because they manifest clinically apparent disease. Approaching dengue from the perspective of people with overt illness has produced an extensive body of useful literature. It has not, however, fully embraced heterogeneities in virus transmission dynamics that are increasingly recognized as key information still missing in the struggle to control the most important insect-transmitted viral infection of humans. Only in the last 20 years have there been significant efforts to carry out comprehensive longitudinal dengue studies. This manuscript provides the rationale and comprehensive, integrated description of the methodology for a five-year longitudinal cohort study based in the tropical city of Iquitos, in the heart of the Peruvian Amazon. Primary data collection for this study was completed in 2019. Although some manuscripts have been published to date, our principal objective here is to support subsequent publications by describing in detail the structure, methodology, and significance of a specific research program. Our project was designed to study people across the entire continuum of disease, with the ultimate goal of quantifying heterogeneities in human variables that affect DENV transmission dynamics and prevention. Because our study design is applicable to other Aedes transmitted viruses, we used it to gain insights into Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission when during the project period ZIKV was introduced and circulated in Iquitos. Our prospective contact cluster investigation design was initiated by detecttion of a person with a symptomatic DENV infection and then followed that person's immediate contacts. This allowed us to monitor individuals at high risk of DENV infection, including people with clinically inapparent and mild infections that are otherwise difficult to detect. We aimed to fill knowledge gaps by defining the contribution to DENV transmission dynamics of (1) the understudied majority of DENV-infected people with inapparent and mild infections and (2) epidemiological, entomological, and socio-behavioral sources of heterogeneity. By accounting for factors underlying variation in each person's contribution to transmission we sought to better determine the type and extent of effort needed to better prevent virus transmission and disease.

Etiologies of Acute Undifferentiated Febrile Illnesses in and near Iquitos from 1993 to 1999 in the Amazon River Basin of Peru

The objective of this study was to determine the etiology of febrile illnesses among patients from October 1, 1993 through September 30, 1999, in the urban community of Iquitos in the Amazon River Basin of Peru. Epidemiological and clinical data as well as blood samples were obtained from consenting patients at hospitals, health clinics and private residences. Samples were tested for arboviruses in cell cultures and for IgM and IgG antibodies by ELISA. Blood smears were examined for malaria, and sera were tested for antibodies to Leptospira spp. by ELISA and microscopic agglutination. Among 6,607 febrile patients studied, dengue viruses caused 14.6% of the cases, and Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus caused 2.5%, Oropouche virus 1.0%, Mayaro virus 0.4%, and other arboviruses caused 0.2% of the cases. Also, 22.9% of 4,844 patients tested were positive for malaria, and of 400 samples tested, 9% had evidence of acute leptospirosis. Although the study was not designed to assess the importance of these pathogens as a cause of human morbidity in the total population, these results indicate that arboviruses, leptospirosis, and malaria were the cause of approximately 50% of the febrile cases. Although the arboviruses that were diagnosed can produce asymptomatic infections, our findings increased the overall understanding of the relative health burden of these infections, as well as baseline knowledge needed for designing and implementing further studies to better assess the health impact and threat of these pathogens in the Amazon Basin of Peru.

Use of mobile data collection systems within large-scale epidemiological field trials: findings and lessons-learned from a vector control trial in Iquitos, Peru

Vector-borne diseases are among the most burdensome infectious diseases worldwide with high burden to health systems in developing regions in the tropics. For many of these diseases, vector control to reduce human biting rates or arthropod populations remains the primary strategy for prevention. New vector control interventions intended to be marketed through public health channels must be assessed by the World Health Organization for public health value using data generated from large-scale trials integrating epidemiological endpoints of human health impact. Such phase III trials typically follow large numbers of study subjects to meet necessary power requirements for detecting significant differences between treatment arms, thereby generating substantive and complex datasets. Data is often gathered directly in the field, in resource-poor settings, leading to challenges in efficient data reporting and/or quality assurance. With advancing technology, mobile data collection (MDC) systems have been implemented in many studies to overcome these challenges. Here we describe the development and implementation of a MDC system during a randomized-cluster, placebo-controlled clinical trial evaluating the protective efficacy of a spatial repellent intervention in reducing human infection with Aedes-borne viruses (ABV) in the urban setting of Iquitos, Peru, as well as the data management system that supported it. We discuss the benefits, remaining capacity gaps and the key lessons learned from using a MDC system in this context in detail.

Dengue Endemicity, Force of Infection, and Variation in Transmission Intensity in 13 Endemic Countries

Dengue endemicity varies but comparative, multicountry data are extremely limited. An improved understanding is needed to prioritize prevention, including vaccination, which is currently recommended only under specific epidemiological conditions. We used serological study data from 46 geographical sites in 13 countries to estimate dengue force of infection (FOI, the proportion of children seroconverting per year) under assumptions of either age-constant or age-varying FOI, and the age at which 50% and 80% of children had been infected. After exclusions, 13 661 subjects were included. Estimated constant FOI varied widely, from 1.7% (Singapore) to 24.1% (the Philippines). In the site-level analysis 44 sites (96%) reached 50% seroconversion and 35 sites (75%) reached 80% seroconversion by age 18 years, with significant heterogeneity. These findings confirm that children living in dengue-endemic countries receive intense early dengue exposure, increasing risk of secondary infection, and imply serosurveys at fine spatial resolutions are needed to inform vaccination campaigns.

Gene Expression Profiling of Early Acute Febrile Stage of Dengue Infection and Its Comparative Analysis With Streptococcus pneumoniae Infection

Infectious diseases are the disorders caused by organisms such as bacteria, viruses, fungi, or parasites. Although many of them are permentantly hazardous, a number of them live in and on our bodies and they are normally harmless or even helpful. Under certain circumstances, some organisms may cause diseases and these infectious diseases may be passed directly from person to person or via intermediate vectors including insects and other animals. Dengue virus and Streptococcus pneumoniae are the critical and common sources of infectious diseases. So, it is critical to understand the gene expression profiling and their inferred functions in comparison to the normal and virus infected conditions. Here, we have analyzed the gene expression profiling for dengue hemorrhagic fever, dengue fever, and normal human dataset. Similar to it, streptococcus pneumoniae infectious data were analyzed and both the outcomes were compared. Our study leads to the conclusion that the dengue hemorrhagic fever arises in result to potential change in the gene expression pattern, and the inferred functions obviously belong to the immune system, but also there are some additional potential pathways which are critical signaling pathways. In the case of pneumoniae infection, 19 pathways were enriched, almost all these pathways are associated with the immune system and 17 of the enriched pathways were common with dengue infection except platelet activation and antigen processing and presentation. In terms of the comparative study between dengue virus and Streptococcus pneumoniae infection, we conclude that cell adhesion molecules (CAMs), MAPK signaling pathway, natural killer cell mediated cytotoxicity, regulation of actin cytoskeleton, and cytokine-cytokine receptor interaction are commonly enriched in all the three cases of dengue infection and Streptococcus pneumoniae infection, focal adhesion was enriched between classical dengue fever — dengue hemorrhagic fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever—normal samples, and SP, and antigen processing and presentation and Leukocyte transendothelial migration were enriched in classical dengue fever —normal samples, dengue hemorrhagic fever—normal samples, and Streptococcus pneumoniae infection.

Evaluation of Two Serological Assays for Diagnosing Zika Virus Infection

Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged and spread rapidly in South American countries during 2015. Efforts to diagnose ZIKV infection using serological tools were challenging in dengue-endemic areas because of antigenic similarities between both viruses. Here, we assessed the performance of an in-house developed IgM antibody capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (MAC-ELISA) and the plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) to diagnose ZIKV infection. Acute and convalescent paired serum samples from 51 patients who presented with clinical symptoms suggestive of an arbovirus illness in dengue-endemic areas of Honduras, Venezuela, Colombia and Peru were used in the assessment. Samples were tested for ZIKV, dengue and chikungunya virus using a variety of laboratory techniques. The results for the ZIKV-RNA screening and seroconversion detected by the microneutralization test were used to construct a composite reference standard. The overall sensitivity and specificity for the MAC-ELISA were 93.5% and 100.0%, respectively. Contrastingly, the overall sensitivity and specificity for the PRNT were 96.8% and 95.0%, respectively. Restricting the analysis according to IgM or neutralizing antibodies against dengue, the performances of both serological assays were adequate. The findings of this study reveal that the MAC-ELISA and PRNT would provide initial reliable laboratory diagnostic assays for ZIKV infection in dengue-endemic areas.

Rapid evolution of knockdown resistance haplotypes in response to pyrethroid selection in Aedes aegypti

This study describes the evolution of knockdown resistance (kdr) haplotypes in Aedes aegypti in response to pyrethroid insecticide use over the course of 18 years in Iquitos, Peru. Based on the duration and intensiveness of sampling (~10,000 samples), this is the most thorough study of kdr population genetics in Ae. aegypti to date within a city. We provide evidence for the direct connection between programmatic citywide pyrethroid spraying and the increase in frequency of specific kdr haplotypes by identifying two evolutionary events in the population. The relatively high selection coefficients, even under infrequent insecticide pressure, emphasize how quickly Ae. aegypti populations can evolve. In our examination of the literature on mosquitoes and other insect pests, we could find no cases where a pest evolved so quickly to so few exposures to low or nonresidual insecticide applications. The observed rapid increase in frequency of resistance alleles might have been aided by the incomplete dominance of resistance-conferring alleles over corresponding susceptibility alleles. In addition to dramatic temporal shifts, spatial suppression experiments reveal that genetic heterogeneity existed not only at the citywide scale, but also on a very fine scale within the city.

The impact of dengue illness on social distancing and caregiving behavior

BACKGROUND

Human mobility among residential locations can drive dengue virus (DENV) transmission dynamics. Recently, it was shown that individuals with symptomatic DENV infection exhibit significant changes in their mobility patterns, spending more time at home during illness. This change in mobility is predicted to increase the risk of acquiring infection for those living with or visiting the ill individual. It has yet to be considered, however, whether social contacts are also changing their mobility, either by socially distancing themselves from the infectious individual or increasing contact to help care for them. Social, or physical, distancing and caregiving could have diverse yet important impacts on DENV transmission dynamics; therefore, it is necessary to better understand the nature and frequency of these behaviors including their effect on mobility.

METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Through community-based febrile illness surveillance and RT-PCR infection confirmation, 67 DENV positive (DENV+) residents were identified in the city of Iquitos, Peru. Using retrospective interviews, data were collected on visitors and home-based care received during the illness. While 15% of participants lost visitors during their illness, 22% gained visitors; overall, 32% of all individuals (particularly females) received visitors while symptomatic. Caregiving was common (90%), particularly caring by housemates (91%) and caring for children (98%). Twenty-eight percent of caregivers changed their behavior enough to have their work (and, likely, mobility patterns) affected. This was significantly more likely when caring for individuals with low "health-related quality of well-being" during illness (Fisher's Exact, p = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our study demonstrates that social contacts of individuals with dengue modify their patterns of visitation and caregiving. The observed mobility changes could impact a susceptible individual's exposure to virus or a presymptomatic/clinically inapparent individual's contribution to onward transmission. Accounting for changes in social contact mobility is imperative in order to get a more accurate understanding of DENV transmission.

Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Iquitos, Peru in July and August, 2020: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Detection of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among people at risk of infection is crucial for understanding both the past transmission of COVID-19 and vulnerability of the population to continuing transmission and, when done serially, the intensity of ongoing transmission over an interval in a community. We aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of COVID-19 in a representative population-based cohort in Iquitos, one of the regions with the highest mortality rates from COVID-19 in Peru, where a devastating number of cases occurred in March, 2020.

METHODS

We did a population-based study of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Iquitos at two timepoints: July 13-18, 2020 (baseline), and Aug 13-18, 2020 (1-month follow-up). We obtained a geographically stratified representative sample of the city population using the 2017 census data, which was updated on Jan 20, 2020. We included people who were inhabitants of Iquitos since COVID-19 was identified in Peru (March 6, 2020) or earlier. We excluded people living in institutions, people receiving any pharmacological treatment for COVID-19, people with any contraindication for phlebotomy, and health workers or individuals living with an active health worker. We tested each participant for IgG and IgM anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies using the COVID-19 IgG/IgM Rapid Test (Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech, China). We used survey analysis methods to estimate seroprevalence accounting for the sampling design effect and test performance characteristics.

FINDINGS

We identified 726 eligible individuals and enrolled a total of 716 participants (99%), distributed across 40 strata (four districts, two sexes, and five age groups). We excluded ten individuals who: did not have consent from a parent or legal representative (n=3), had moved to Iquitos after March 6, 2020 (n=3), were in transit (n=2), or had respiratory symptoms (n=1). After adjusting for the study sampling effects and sensitivity and specificity of the test, we estimated a seroprevalence of 70% (95% CI 67-73) at baseline and 66% (95% CI 62-70) at 1 month of follow-up, with a test-retest positivity of 65% (95% CI 61-68), and an incidence of new exposures of 2% (95% CI 1-3). We observed significant differences in the seroprevalence between age groups, with participants aged 18-29 years having lower seroprevalence than those aged younger than 12 years (prevalence ratio 0·85 [95% CI 0·73-0·98]; p=0·029).

INTERPRETATION

After the first epidemic peak, Iquitos had one of the highest rates of seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies worldwide. Nevertheless, the city experienced a second wave starting in January, 2021, probably due to the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 P1 variant, which has shown higher transmissibility and reinfection rates.

FUNDING

Dirección Regional de Salud de Loreto (DIRESA), Loreto, Peru.

TRANSLATION

For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Heterogeneity of Dengue Illness in Community-Based Prospective Study, Iquitos, Peru

Measuring heterogeneity of dengue illness is necessary to define suitable endpoints in dengue vaccine and therapeutic trials and will help clarify behavioral responses to illness. To quantify heterogeneity in dengue illness, including milder cases, we developed the Dengue Illness Perceptions Response (IPR) survey, which captured detailed symptom data, including intensity, duration, and character, and change in routine activities caused by illness. During 2016–2019, we collected IPR data daily during the acute phase of illness for 79 persons with a positive reverse transcription PCR result for dengue virus RNA. Most participants had mild ambulatory disease. However, we measured substantial heterogeneity in illness experience, symptom duration, and maximum reported intensity of individual symptoms. Symptom intensity was a more valuable predicter of major activity change during dengue illness than symptom presence or absence alone. These data suggest that the IPR measures clinically useful heterogeneity in dengue illness experience and its relation to altered human behavior.

A prospective, multicentre, cohort study to assess the incidence of dengue illness in households from selected communities in Brazil (2014-2018)

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the incidence of dengue infection across geographically distinct areas of Brazil.

METHODS

This prospective, household-based, cohort study enrolled participants in five areas and followed them up for up to 4 years (2014-2018). Dengue seroprevalence was assessed at each scheduled visit. Suspected dengue cases were identified through enhanced passive and active surveillance. Acute symptomatic dengue infection was confirmed through reverse-transcriptase quantitative polymerase chain reaction in combination with an antigenic assay (non-structural protein 1) and serology.

RESULTS

Among 3300 participants enrolled, baseline seroprevalence was 76.2%, although only 23.3% of participants reported a history of dengue. Of 1284 suspected symptomatic dengue cases detected, 50 (3.9%) were laboratory-confirmed. Based on 8166.5 person-years (PY) of follow-up, the incidence of laboratory-confirmed symptomatic infection (primary endpoint) was 6.1 per 1000 PY (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.5, 8.1). Incidence varied substantially in different years (1.8-7.4 per 1000 PY). The incidence of inapparent primary dengue infection was substantially higher: 41.7 per 1000 PY (95% CI: 31.1, 54.6).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings, highlighting that the incidence of dengue infection is underestimated in Brazil, will inform the design and implementation of future dengue vaccine trials.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT01751139.

Boosting can explain patterns of fluctuations of ratios of inapparent to symptomatic dengue virus infections

Dengue is the most prevalent arboviral disease worldwide, and the four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes circulate endemically in many tropical and subtropical regions. Numerous studies have shown that the majority of DENV infections are inapparent, and that the ratio of inapparent to symptomatic infections (I/S) fluctuates substantially year-to-year. For example, in the ongoing Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study (PDCS) in Nicaragua, which was established in 2004, the I/S ratio has varied from 16.5:1 in 2006-2007 to 1.2:1 in 2009-2010. However, the mechanisms explaining these large fluctuations are not well understood. We hypothesized that in dengue-endemic areas, frequent boosting (i.e., exposures to DENV that do not lead to extensive viremia and result in a less than fourfold rise in antibody titers) of the immune response can be protective against symptomatic disease, and this can explain fluctuating I/S ratios. We formulate mechanistic epidemiologic models to examine the epidemiologic effects of protective homologous and heterologous boosting of the antibody response in preventing subsequent symptomatic DENV infection. We show that models that include frequent boosts that protect against symptomatic disease can recover the fluctuations in the I/S ratio that we observe, whereas a classic model without boosting cannot. Furthermore, we show that a boosting model can recover the inverse relationship between the number of symptomatic cases and the I/S ratio observed in the PDCS. These results highlight the importance of robust dengue control efforts, as intermediate dengue control may have the potential to decrease the protective effects of boosting.

Potential for community based surveillance of febrile diseases: Feasibility of self-administered rapid diagnostic tests in Iquitos, Peru and Phnom Penh, Cambodia

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) have the potential to identify infectious diseases quickly, minimize disease transmission, and could complement and improve surveillance and control of infectious and vector-borne diseases during outbreaks. The U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency's Joint Science and Technology Office (DTRA-JSTO) program set out to develop novel point-of-need RDTs for infectious diseases and deploy them for home use with no training. The aim of this formative study was to address two questions: 1) could community members in Iquitos, Peru and Phnom Penh, Cambodia competently use RDTs of different levels of complexity at home with visually based instructions provided, and 2) if an RDT were provided at no cost, would it be used at home if family members displayed febrile symptoms? Test kits with written and video (Peru only) instructions were provided to community members (Peru [n = 202]; Cambodia [n = 50]) or community health workers (Cambodia [n = 45]), and trained observers evaluated the competency level for each of the several steps required to successfully operate one of two multiplex RDTs on themselves or other consenting participant (i.e., family member). In Iquitos, >80% of residents were able to perform 11/12 steps and 7/15 steps for the two- and five-pathogen test, respectively. Competency in Phnom Penh never reached 80% for any of the 12 or 15 steps for either test; the percentage of participants able to perform a step ranged from 26-76% and 23-72%, for the two- and five-pathogen tests, respectively. Commercially available NS1 dengue rapid tests were distributed, at no cost, to households with confirmed exposure to dengue or Zika virus; of 14 febrile cases reported, six used the provided RDT. Our findings support the need for further implementation research on the appropriate level of instructions or training needed for diverse devices in different settings, as well as how to best integrate RDTs into existing local public health and disease surveillance programs at a large scale.

Disease-driven reduction in human mobility influences human-mosquito contacts and dengue transmission dynamics

Heterogeneous exposure to mosquitoes determines an individual’s contribution to vector-borne pathogen transmission. Particularly for dengue virus (DENV), there is a major difficulty in quantifying human-vector contacts due to the unknown coupled effect of key heterogeneities. To test the hypothesis that the reduction of human out-of-home mobility due to dengue illness will significantly influence population-level dynamics and the structure of DENV transmission chains, we extended an existing modeling framework to include social structure, disease-driven mobility reductions, and heterogeneous transmissibility from different infectious groups. Compared to a baseline model, naïve to human pre-symptomatic infectiousness and disease-driven mobility changes, a model including both parameters predicted an increase of 37% in the probability of a DENV outbreak occurring; a model including mobility change alone predicted a 15.5% increase compared to the baseline model. At the individual level, models including mobility change led to a reduction of the importance of out-of-home onward transmission (R, the fraction of secondary cases predicted to be generated by an individual) by symptomatic individuals (up to -62%) at the expense of an increase in the relevance of their home (up to +40%). An individual’s positive contribution to R could be predicted by a GAM including a non-linear interaction between an individual’s biting suitability and the number of mosquitoes in their home (>10 mosquitoes and 0.6 individual attractiveness significantly increased R). We conclude that the complex fabric of social relationships and differential behavioral response to dengue illness cause the fraction of symptomatic DENV infections to concentrate transmission in specific locations, whereas asymptomatic carriers (including individuals in their pre-symptomatic period) move the virus throughout the landscape. Our findings point to the difficulty of focusing vector control interventions reactively on the home of symptomatic individuals, as this approach will fail to contain virus propagation by visitors to their house and asymptomatic carriers.

Human mobility patterns can play an integral role in vector-borne disease dynamics by characterizing an individual’s potential contacts with disease-transmitting vectors. Dengue virus is transmitted by a sedentary vector, but human mobility allows individuals to have contact with mosquitoes at their home and other houses they frequent (their activity space). When accounting for the decreased mobility of symptomatic dengue cases in an agent-based simulation model, however, we found a severely diminished role of the activity space in onward transmission. Those who received the majority of their mosquito contacts outside their home experienced decreases in expected bites and onward transmission when mobility changes were accounted for. Onward transmission was driven by a synergistic relationship between the number of mosquitoes in an individual’s home and their biting suitability, where even those with the highest biting suitability would have limited contribution to transmission given a low number of household mosquitoes. Reactive vector control, which often targets symptomatic cases, could be effective for slowing onward transmission from these cases, but will fail to control virus transmission due to the disproportionate contribution of asymptomatic infections.

Serosurvey for dengue virus infection among pregnant women in the West Nile virus enzootic community of El Paso Texas

All 4 dengue viruses (DENV) cause sporadic outbreaks of human disease in the Rio Grande Valley along the US-Mexico border. In addition, West Nile virus (WNV) is enzootic in most border communities, and is the only arbovirus known to cause human disease in the El Paso, Texas community. In an effort to determine if DENV were also endemic in the El Paso community, a serosurvey was conducted among mothers at the time of delivery of their babies in selected hospitals. Cord-blood plasma samples obtained from mothers were tested for DENV antibody by an enzyme-linked immuno-sorbent assay (ELISA), plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) and a multiplex microsphere immunoassay. All DENV antibody positive plasma samples were also tested for WNV antibody by the same assays to consider the possibility that DENV antibody positive samples reflected WNV cross reactive antibody. The results indicated that 0.74% (11/1,472) of the mothers had a previous DENV infection and that 3.3% (48/1,472) had a previous WNV infection. Of these mothers, 0.20% (3/1,472) had antibody to both DENV and WNV as evidence of infection by both viruses. The results indicated that 0.2% (3/1472) of the mothers were positive for antibody to only WNV envelope, thus suggesting an undetermined flavivirus infection. Although 6 of the 11 DENV antibody positive mothers did not have a history of travel to a DENV endemic country, the findings of this survey provided further evidence of local transmission of WNV and suggested the possibility of focal autochthonous transmission of DENV in the El Paso community.

Age-dependent seroprevalence of dengue and chikungunya: inference from a cross-sectional analysis in Esmeraldas Province in coastal Ecuador

OBJECTIVES

There are few population-based estimates for prevalence of past exposure to dengue and chikungunya viruses despite common epidemiological features. Here, we have developed a novel statistical method to study patterns of age-dependent prevalence of immunity in a population following exposures to two viruses which share similar epidemiological features including mode of transmission and induction of long-lasting immunity. This statistical technique accounted for sociodemographic characteristics associated with individuals and households.

SETTINGS

The data consist of a representative sample from an ongoing longitudinal birth cohort set-up in a tropical district in coastal Ecuador (Esmeraldas).

PARTICIPANTS

We collected data and blood samples from 319 individuals belonging to 152 households following epidemics of the infections in 2015 in Latin America.

PRIMARY OUTCOME

Plasma was tested for the presence of specific IgG antibodies to dengue and chikungunya viruses by commercial ELISA and defined a bivariate binary outcome indicating individuals' past exposure status to dengue and chikungunya (ie, presence/absence of IgG antibodies to dengue or chikungunya or both).

RESULTS

Dengue seroprevalence increased rapidly with age reaching 97% (95% credible interval (CrI): 93%-99%) by 60 years. Chikungunya seroprevalence peaked at 42% (95% CrI: 18%-66%) around 9 years of age and averaged 27% (95% CrI: 8.7%-51.6%) for all ages. Rural areas were more likely to be associated with dengue-only exposure while urban areas and shorter distance to the nearest household were associated with exposures to both. Women living in urban settings were more likely to be chikungunya seropositive while rural men were more likely to be dengue seropositive.

CONCLUSION

Dengue seroprevalence was strongly age dependent consistent with endemic exposure while that of chikungunya peaked in childhood consistent with the recent emergence of the virus in the study area. Our findings will inform control strategies for the two arboviruses in Ecuador including recommendations by the WHO on dengue vaccination.

Dengue situation in India: Suitability and transmission potential model for present and projected climate change scenarios

Dengue fever is mosquito borne viral disease caused by dengue virus and transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. In recent years the dengue has spread rapidly to several regions and it becomes a major public health menace globally. Dengue transmission is strongly influenced by environmental factors such as temperature and rainfall. In the present study, a climate driven dengue model was developed and predicted areas vulnerable for dengue transmission under the present and future climate change scenarios in India. The study also projected the dengue distribution risk map using representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in India in 2018-2030 (forthcoming period), 2031-2050 (intermediate period) and 2051-2080 (long period). The dengue cases assessed in India from 1998 to 2018 and found that the dengue transmission is gradually increasing year over year. The temperature data from 1980 to 2017 shows that, the mean temperatures are raising in the Southern region of India. During 2000-2017 periods the dengue transmission is steadily increasing across the India in compare with 1980-1999 periods. The dengue distribution risk is predicted and it is revealed that the coastal states have yearlong transmission possibility, but the high transmission potential is observed throughout the monsoon period. Due to the climate change, the expansion two more months of dengue transmission risk occurs in many regions of India. Both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios revealed that dengue outbreaks might occur at larger volume in Southern, Eastern, and Central regions of India. Furthermore a sensitivity analysis was performed to explore the impact of climate change on dengue transmission. These results helps to suggest appropriate control measures should be implemented to limit the spread in future warmer climates. Besides these, a proper plan is required to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the epidemic potential of dengue in India.

Cross-sectional study of dengue-related knowledge, attitudes and practices in Villa El Salvador, Lima, Peru

OBJECTIVES

To describe and quantify the dengue-related knowledge, attitudes and practices of residents in an urban shantytown in Lima, Peru.

DESIGN/SETTING

A cross-sectional survey of adults between 18 and 80 years living in approximately 120 blocks in Oasis, an urban shantytown situated in the low-to-middle income district of Villa El Salvador in Southern Lima. The survey was adapted from an existing survey previously used in Iquitos, Peru, and included questions relating to knowledge of dengue symptoms, transmission, prevention and current mosquito control practices.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 240 surveys were completed with 80% of respondents being female and approximately 50% of all respondents describing themselves as housewives.

RESULTS

Although 97.9% of respondents had heard of dengue, only 6.2% of people knew someone who had experienced the disease. Approximately half (54.2%) of the respondents knew dengue was transmitted by mosquitoes and 51.7% were able to identify fever and one other correct symptom of dengue. Female sex was significantly associated with greater symptom knowledge (OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.08 to 4.72) and prevention knowledge (OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.06 to 4.21). Past or current higher education attendance was significantly associated with symptom knowledge (OR 2.56, 95% CI 1.25 to 5.44) and transmission knowledge (OR 3.46, 95% CI 1.69 to 7.57). Knowledge of dengue was not significantly associated with carrying out practices to control mosquitoes (OR 1.76, 95% CI 0.87 to 3.54).

CONCLUSIONS

This population demonstrated baseline dengue knowledge. However, this was incomplete and substantially less when compared with endemic areas. Given the sporadic nature of dengue transmission in Lima, it is not surprising that knowledge of the disease was not associated with carrying out practices to reduce mosquitoes. However, as dengue transmission in Lima is likely to increase, understanding how best to improve public knowledge of the disease and how to translate this into appropriate community action will be a key public health consideration.

Hidden heterogeneity and its influence on dengue vaccination impact

The CYD-TDV vaccine was recently developed to combat dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease that afflicts millions of people each year throughout the tropical and subtropical world. Its rollout has been complicated by recent findings that vaccinees with no prior exposure to dengue virus (DENV) experience an elevated risk of severe disease in response to their first DENV infection subsequent to vaccination. As a result of these findings, guidelines for use of CYD-TDV now require serological screening prior to vaccination to establish that an individual does not fall into this high-risk category. These complications mean that the public health impact of CYD-TDV vaccination is expected to be higher in areas with higher transmission. One important practical difficulty with tailoring vaccination policy to local transmission contexts is that DENV transmission is spatially heterogeneous, even at the scale of neighborhoods or blocks within a city. This raises the question of whether models based on data that average over spatial heterogeneity in transmission could fail to capture important aspects of CYD-TDV impact in spatially heterogeneous populations. We explored this question with a deterministic model of DENV transmission and CYD-TDV vaccination in a population comprised of two communities with differing transmission intensities. Compared to the full model, a version of the model based on the average of the two communities failed to capture benefits of targeting the intervention to the high-transmission community, which resulted in greater impact in both communities than we observed under even coverage. In addition, the model based on the average of the two communities substantially overestimated impact among vaccinated individuals in the low-transmission community. In the event that the specificity of serological screening is not high, this result suggests that models that ignore spatial heterogeneity could overlook the potential for harm to this segment of the population.

Dengue viremia kinetics in asymptomatic and symptomatic infection

BACKGROUND

Dengue infection is a global health threat. While symptomatic cases contribute to morbidity and mortality, the majority of infected people are asymptomatic but serve as an important reservoir. However, the kinetics of viremia in asymptomatic infections remains unknown.

METHODS

We enrolled 279 hospital-based symptomatic index cases and quantified dengue virus (DENV) RNA at enrollment and at the day of defervescence. To identify asymptomatic cases, 175 household members of index cases were monitored for clinical symptoms during follow-up, and blood was taken twice weekly to test for and quantify DENV RNA until cleared.

RESULTS

We detected DENV in thirteen asymptomatic household members (7.43%). Their DENV serotypes were primarily the same as those of their family index cases. The median peak DENV viremia in asymptomatic subjects was lower than that of symptomatic individuals during the febrile phase, and the viral decay rate was slower in asymptomatic infections.

CONCLUSIONS

DENV level and kinetics in asymptomatic individuals differed significantly from those of symptomatic cases. Despite the lower viremia, the slower decay rate in asymptomatic infections could lead to their prolonging the infectious reservoir. The improvement of transmission control to prevent such long-lived asymptomatic infections from transmitting the DENV is needed.

Measuring health related quality of life for dengue patients in Iquitos, Peru

Previous studies measuring the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of individuals with dengue focused on treatment seeking populations. However, the vast majority of global dengue cases are unlikely to be detected by health systems. Representative measurements of HRQoL should therefore include patients with disease not likely to trigger treatment-seeking behavior. This study based in Iquitos, Peru used the Quality of Wellbeing Scale-Self Administered, a survey that enquires about not only physical health, but also psychological health, self-care, mobility, and usual social activities, and rates HRQoL between 0 (death) and 1 (optimum function), to evaluate the impact of dengue on HRQoL. In order to enroll treatment and non treatment-seeking participants, three modalities of participant recruitment were used. In addition to clinic and community-based febrile surveillance, a contact-cluster methodology was also employed to identify infected individuals less likely to seek treatment. We measured changes in HRQoL and identified common areas of health impairment in 73 virologically confirmed dengue cases at 3 time points during the participant's illness; the early-acute (days 0-6 post symptom onset), late-acute (days 7-20), and convalescent illness phases (days 21 +). Participants reported HRQoL related impairments at significantly higher frequency during the early-acute versus convalescent illness phase (Fisher's exact: P<0.01). There was substantial heterogeneity in scores during each illness phase with median scores in the early-acute, late-acute and convalescent phases of 0.56 (IQR: 0.41-0.64), 0.70 (IQR: 0.57-0.94), and 1 (IQR: 0.80-1.00), respectively. In all illness phases participants recruited in clinics had on average the lowest HRQoL scores where as those recruited in the contact clusters had the highest. Only 1 individual who was recruited in the contact-clusters had no reduction in HRQoL score during their illness. These data illustrate that dengue should be considered as a disease that may have significant implications for not only physical health but also psychological health and social functioning. The impact of dengue on the HRQoL of non-treatment-seeking individuals, although lower than the impact among treatment-seeking individuals, is not necessarily trivial.

Evaluation of the usefulness of Aedes aegypti rapid larval surveys to anticipate seasonal dengue transmission between 2012-2015 in Fortaleza, Brazil

Rapid larval surveys have been mandated in nearly every urban Brazilian municipality and promoted by the Pan American Health Organization. These surveys purport to classify arbovirus transmission risk as a basis to triage local surveillance and vector control operations, yet no previous analyses have determined relative risk associated with marginal changes in infestation at administrative and temporal scales relevant to vector control. We estimated associations between entomological indices from six larval surveys and daily incidence rates of confirmed dengue cases in Fortaleza, Brazil using models adjusted for rainfall, and indicators of spatial association. Poor correspondence between infestation and incidence indicates that these surveys may systematically mislead vector control activities and treatment strategies in Fortaleza and in similar cities throughout Latin America. The co-circulation of multiple arboviruses enhances the importance of determining the true informational value of these surveys, and of identifying complementary tools to discern local and inter-annual transmission risk.

The impact of insecticide treated curtains on dengue virus transmission: A cluster randomized trial in Iquitos, Peru

Dengue is one of the most important vector-borne diseases, resulting in an estimated hundreds of millions of infections annually throughout the tropics. Control of dengue is heavily dependent upon control of its primary mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti. Innovative interventions that are effective at targeting the adult stage of the mosquito are needed to increase the options for effective control. The use of insecticide-treated curtains (ITCs) has previously been shown to significantly reduce the abundance of Ae. aegypti in and around homes, but the impact of ITCs on dengue virus (DENV) transmission has not been rigorously quantified. A parallel arm cluster-randomized controlled trial was conducted in Iquitos, Peru to quantify the impact of ITCs on DENV seroconversion as measured through plaque-reduction neutralization tests. Seroconversion data showed that individuals living in the clusters that received ITCs were at greater risk to seroconverting to DENV, with an average seroconversion rate of 50.6 per 100 person-years (PY) (CI: 29.9–71.9), while those in the control arm had an average seroconversion rate of 37.4 per 100 PY (CI: 15.2–51.7). ITCs lost their insecticidal efficacy within 6 months of deployment, necessitating re-treatment with insecticide. Entomological indicators did not show statistically significant differences between ITC and non-ITC clusters. It’s unclear how the lack of protective efficacy reported here is attributable to simple failure of the intervention to protect against Ae. aegypti bites, or the presence of a faulty intervention during much of the follow-up period. The higher risk of dengue seroconversion that was detected in the ITC clusters may have arisen due to a false sense of security that inadvertently led to less routine protective behaviors on the part of households that received the ITCs. Our study provides important lessons learned for conducting cluster randomized trials for vector control interventions against Aedes-transmitted virus infections.

Dengue is one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases affecting humans, resulting in an estimated hundreds of millions of infections annually throughout the tropics. To control dengue, most public health programs use a variety of methods to kill the primary mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti. Water holding containers that harbor larvae (and other immature stages) are treated or eliminated. During emergencies, large insecticide spray campaigns are deployed to kill infected adult mosquitoes. Innovative interventions that are effective at targeting adult mosquitoes in sustainable ways are needed to increase the options for control of dengue and other Aedes borne virus diseases. The use of insecticide-treated curtains (ITCs) has previously been shown to significantly reduce Ae. aegypti numbers in and around homes, but the impact of ITCs on dengue virus (DENV) transmission has not previously been quantified. Using a rigorous study design in which 10 clusters (~90 houses per cluster) were provided multiple ITCs to place in their homes was compared to 10 clusters of homes without ITCs. Assignment of which clusters received ITCs was randomized. Blood samples were obtained at 9-month intervals from residents living in all the clusters, so that people with serological evidence of a DENV infection could be identified by comparing paired samples. Seroconversion data showed that individuals living in the clusters that received ITCs were at greater risk to DENV seroconverting, with an average seroconversion rate of 50.6 per 100 person-years (PY) (CI: 29.9–71.9). Conversely, those in the control arm had an average seroconversion rate of 37.4 per 100 PY (CI: 15.2–51.7). ITCs lost their insecticidal efficacy within 6 months of deployment, necessitating re-treatment with insecticide. Ae. aegypti populations did not show statistically significant differences between ITC and non-ITC clusters. The reason for higher transmission in the ITC treated clusters could be attributable to failure of the curtains (loss of efficacy) and/or that the curtains were not sufficiently effective at protecting against mosquito bites. The higher risk of DENV seroconversion in ITC clusters may be due to a false sense of security that inadvertently led to less routine protective behaviors on the part of households that received the ITC.

A cohort study to assess the incidence of dengue, Brazil, 2014-2018

The present cohort study was set up with the aim of determining the incidence of dengue among children and adolescents, from 2 to 16 years of age, living in Araraquara, South-Eastern Brazil, a city classified as a mid-level endemicity location for dengue. Enrollment took place from September 2014 to March 2015. Baseline socio-demographic data were collected, and a blood sample from the participant was drawn, for dengue serology. Families were contacted weekly for fever surveillance. If the child developed fever, a nurse visited the household to collect a blood sample. PCR, NS1 and IgM were used for dengue diagnosis. Parents or legal guardians of participating children provided a written informed consent. 3,514 children and adolescents were enrolled in the cohort. Dengue baseline seroprevalence was 12.2% (95%CI: 11.1 - 13.3). The incidence density of symptomatic dengue was 8.94 per 100 person/years in the first year of follow-up, 0.58 in the second, and 0.19 in the fourth. No cases were confirmed in the third year. Incidence was associated with age, sex, baseline seroprevalence and with living in a house as opposed to an apartment. This study provides relevant information on the epidemiology of dengue in mid-level transmission settings that may be useful to policymakers in the evaluation of control strategies.

Considering Genomic and Immunological Correlates of Protection for a Dengue Intervention

Over three billion are at risk of dengue infection with more than 100 million a year presenting with symptoms that can lead to deadly haemorrhagic disease. There are however no treatments available and the only licensed vaccine shows limited efficacy and is able to enhance the disease in some cases. These failures have mainly been due to the complex pathology and lack of understanding of the correlates of protection for dengue virus (DENV) infection. With increasing data suggesting both a protective and detrimental effect for antibodies and CD8 T-cells whilst having complex environmental dynamics. This review discusses the roles of genomic and immunological aspects of DENV infection, providing both a historical interpretation and fresh discussion on how this information can be used for the next generation of dengue interventions.

Potential Use of Community-Based Rapid Diagnostic Tests for Febrile Illnesses: Formative Research in Peru and Cambodia

In 2012, the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency Joint Science and Technology Office initiated a program to develop novel point-of-need diagnostic devices for surveillance of emerging infectious diseases including dengue, malaria, plague, and melioidosis. Prior to distribution of devices to observe their correct use among community members in Iquitos, Peru, and Phnom Penh, Cambodia, research was conducted to: 1) assess acceptability of use, including the motivation to use a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) before or instead of seeking care at a health facility, 2) explore comprehension of RDT use instructions, and 3) examine possible strategies for large scale RDT distribution and use at each site. In February 2014, 9 focus group discussions (FGD) with community members and 5 FGD with health professionals were conducted in Iquitos, and 9 FGD with community members and 9 in-depth interviews with health professionals in Phnom Penh. In both places, participants agreed to use the device themselves (involving finger prick) or could identify someone who could do so in their home or neighborhood. The main incentive to RDT use in both sites was the ability for device results to be used for care facilitation (post confirmatory tests), specifically reduced wait times to be seen or obtain a diagnosis. Comprehension of RDT use instructions was assessed in Iquitos by asking some participants to apply the device to research team members; after watching a short video, most steps were done correctly. In Phnom Penh, participants were asked to describe each step after reading the instructions; they struggled with comprehension. Health professionals’ main concerns in both sites were their community’s ability to accurately use the test, handle complicated instructions, and safety (i.e., disposal of lancets). Health system structure and ability to use home diagnostic devices varied in the two disease endemic sites, with substantial challenges in each, suggesting the need for different strategies for RDT large scale community use, and illustrating the value of formative research before deployment of novel technologies.

Development and use of devices to diagnose infectious diseases outside of health facilities (i.e., at home or in remote areas) continues to increase, providing new options for the follow up and treatment options of individuals, depending on the diseases. In this qualitative study, researchers in Iquitos, Peru, and Phnom Penh, Cambodia explored what local people thought about the possible availability of such a device to diagnose dengue and malaria in their own houses, and what would motivate them to use such a device instead of going directly to a health facility for the diagnosis. Participants reported being willing to use device on themselves and were motivated by the possibility that, by using this diagnostic device and taking the result to their health facility, they might be able to obtain quicker and more optimized attention at the health facility; for example, by obtaining a positive result to dengue or malaria on the rapid diagnostic device, they are aware they might still need confirmatory tests, but they would be able to reduce the wait time for obtaining a definitive diagnosis and starting treatment by a full day. Questions regarding accuracy of tests, complicated instructions and safety of using these devices in the community were brought up by participants—individuals living in the communities and local health professionals. Also, in this study, it was clear that if these devices were to be made available in Peru and Cambodia, different strategies for disseminating and using these in the communities would be needed to accommodate for different health infrastructure in both sites.

Dengue illness impacts daily human mobility patterns in Iquitos, Peru

Background

Human mobility plays a central role in shaping pathogen transmission by generating spatial and/or individual variability in potential pathogen-transmitting contacts. Recent research has shown that symptomatic infection can influence human mobility and pathogen transmission dynamics. Better understanding the complex relationship between symptom severity, infectiousness, and human mobility requires quantification of movement patterns throughout infectiousness. For dengue virus (DENV), human infectiousness peaks 0–2 days after symptom onset, making it paramount to understand human movement patterns from the beginning of illness.

Methodology and principal findings

Through community-based febrile surveillance and RT-PCR assays, we identified a cohort of DENV+ residents of the city of Iquitos, Peru (n = 63). Using retrospective interviews, we measured the movements of these individuals when healthy and during each day of symptomatic illness. The most dramatic changes in mobility occurred during the first three days after symptom onset; individuals visited significantly fewer locations (Wilcoxon test, p = 0.017) and spent significantly more time at home (Wilcoxon test, p = 0.005), compared to when healthy. By 7–9 days after symptom onset, mobility measures had returned to healthy levels. Throughout an individual’s symptomatic period, the day of illness and their subjective sense of well-being were the most significant predictors for the number of locations and houses they visited.

Conclusions/Significance

Our study is one of the first to collect and analyze human mobility data at a daily scale during symptomatic infection. Accounting for the observed changes in human mobility throughout illness will improve understanding of the impact of disease on DENV transmission dynamics and the interpretation of public health-based surveillance data.

Dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease of humans worldwide. Due to the limited mobility of the mosquitoes that transmit dengue virus, human mobility can be a key to both understanding an individual’s exposure to the virus and explaining the spread of dengue throughout a population. Accurate disease models should include human mobility; however, changes in human movement patterns due to the presence of symptoms need to be taken into account. We quantified the impact of symptom presence on human mobility throughout the infectious period by analyzing a dataset on the daily movements of dengue virus infected individuals. Accounting for these changing patterns of mobility will improve understanding of the complex relationship between symptom severity, human movement, and dengue virus transmission. Furthermore, dengue transmission models that incorporate symptom-driven mobility changes can be used to evaluate scenarios and strategies for disease prevention.

The genetic structure of Aedes aegypti populations is driven by boat traffic in the Peruvian Amazon

In the Americas, as in much of the rest of the world, the dengue virus vector Aedes aegypti is found in close association with human habitations, often leading to high population densities of mosquitoes in urban settings. In the Peruvian Amazon, this vector has been expanding to rural communities over the last 10–15 years, but to date, the population genetic structure of Ae. aegypti in this region has not been characterized. To investigate the relationship between Ae. aegypti gene flow and human transportation networks, we characterized mosquito population structure using a panel of 8 microsatellite markers and linked results to various potential mechanisms for long-distance dispersal. Adult and immature Ae. aegypti (>20 individuals per site) were collected from Iquitos city and from six neighboring riverine communities, i.e., Nauta, Indiana, Mazan, Barrio Florida, Tamshiaco, and Aucayo. F_ST statistics indicate significant, but low to moderate differentiation for the majority of study site pairs. Population structure of Ae. aegypti is not correlated with the geographic distance between towns, suggesting that human transportation networks provide a reasonable explanation for the high levels of population mixing. Our results indicate that Ae. aegypti gene flow among sub-populations is greatest between locations with heavy boat traffic, such as Iquitos-Tamshiaco and Iquitos-Indiana-Mazan, and lowest between locations with little or no boat/road traffic between them such as Barrio Florida-Iquitos. Bayesian clustering analysis showed ancestral admixture among three genetic clusters; no single cluster was exclusive to any site. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that human transportation networks, particularly riverways, are responsible for the geographic spread of Ae. aegypti in the Peruvian Amazon. Our findings are applicable to other regions of the world characterized by networks of urban islands connected by fluvial transport routes.

Aedes aegypti, the primary mosquito vector of dengue, is a highly invasive species that is expanding from urban to peri-urban and rural areas throughout the Americas. Previous studies documented the role of human transportation networks in Ae. aegypti long-distance dispersal. We examined whether patterns of Ae. aegypti gene flow are consistent with this observation. Mosquitoes were collected from seven locations, including the large Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru, and six neighboring rural communities, and their genetic relatedness was compared using 8 microsatellite markers. Our results showed ample gene flow among mosquito populations in this region, with greater gene flow observed among sites that are connected by fluvial routes. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that human transportation networks, especially via boats, are a primary contributing factor to the spread of Ae. aegypti in the Peruvian Amazon.

Dengue and chikungunya among outpatients with acute undifferentiated fever in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo: A cross-sectional study

Background

Pathogens causing acute fever, with the exception of malaria, remain largely unidentified in sub-Saharan Africa, given the local unavailability of diagnostic tests and the broad differential diagnosis.

Methodology

We conducted a cross-sectional study including outpatient acute undifferentiated fever in both children and adults, between November 2015 and June 2016 in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo. Serological and molecular diagnostic tests for selected arboviral infections were performed on blood, including PCR, NS1-RDT, ELISA and IFA for acute, and ELISA and IFA for past infections.

Results

Investigation among 342 patients, aged 2 to 68 years (mean age of 21 years), with acute undifferentiated fever (having no clear focus of infection) revealed 19 (8.1%) acute dengue–caused by DENV-1 and/or DENV-2 –and 2 (0.9%) acute chikungunya infections. Furthermore, 30.2% and 26.4% of participants had been infected in the past with dengue and chikungunya, respectively. We found no evidence of acute Zika nor yellow fever virus infections. 45.3% of patients tested positive on malaria Rapid Diagnostic Test, 87.7% received antimalarial treatment and 64.3% received antibacterial treatment.

Discussion

Chikungunya outbreaks have been reported in the study area in the past, so the high seroprevalence is not surprising. However, scarce evidence exists on dengue transmission in Kinshasa and based on our data, circulation is more important than previously reported. Furthermore, our study shows that the prescription of antibiotics, both antibacterial and antimalarial drugs, is rampant. Studies like this one, elucidating the causes of acute fever, may lead to a more considerate and rigorous use of antibiotics. This will not only stem the ever-increasing problem of antimicrobial resistance, but will–ultimately and hopefully–improve the clinical care of outpatients in low-resource settings.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02656862.

Malaria remains one of the most important causes of fever in sub-Saharan Africa. However, its share is declining, since the diagnosis and treatment of malaria have improved significantly over the years. Hence leading to an increase in the number of patients presenting with non-malarial fever. Often, obvious clinical signs and symptoms like cough or diarrhea are absent, probing the question: “What causes the fever?” Previous studies have shown that the burden of arboviral infections–like dengue and chikungunya–in sub-Saharan Africa is underestimated, which is why we screened for four common arboviral infections in patients presenting with ‘undifferentiated fever’ at an outpatient clinic in suburban Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo. Among the patients tested, we found that one in ten presented with an acute arboviral infection and that almost one in three patients had been infected in the past. These findings suggest that clinicians should think about arboviral infections more often, thereby refraining from the prescription of antibiotics, a practice increasingly problematic given the global rise of antimicrobial resistance.

The impact of city-wide deployment of Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes on arboviral disease incidence in Medellín and Bello, Colombia: study protocol for an interrupted time-series analysis and a test-negative design study

Background: Dengue, chikungunya and Zika are viral infections transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, and present major public health challenges in tropical regions. Traditional vector control methods have been ineffective at halting disease transmission. The World Mosquito Program has developed a novel approach to arbovirus control using Ae. aegypti stably transfected with the Wolbachia bacterium, which have significantly reduced ability to transmit dengue, Zika and chikungunya in laboratory experiments. Field releases in eight countries have demonstrated Wolbachia establishment in local Ae. aegypti populations. Methods: We describe a pragmatic approach to measuring the epidemiological impact of city-wide Wolbachia deployments in Bello and Medellín, Colombia. First, an interrupted time-series analysis will compare the incidence of dengue, chikungunya and Zika case notifications before and after Wolbachia releases, across the two municipalities. Second, a prospective case-control study using a test-negative design will be conducted in one quadrant of Medellín. Three of the six contiguous release zones in the case-control area were allocated to receive the first Wolbachia deployments in the city and three to be treated last, approximating a parallel two-arm trial for the >12-month period during which Wolbachia exposure remains discordant. Allocation, although non-random, aimed to maximise balance between arms in historical dengue incidence and demographics. Arboviral disease cases and arbovirus-negative controls will be enrolled concurrently from febrile patients presenting to primary care, with case/control status classified retrospectively following laboratory diagnostic testing. Intervention effect is estimated from an aggregate odds ratio comparing Wolbachia-exposure odds among test-positive cases versus test-negative controls. Discussion: The study findings will add to an accumulating body of evidence from global field sites on the efficacy of the Wolbachia method in reducing arboviral disease incidence, and can inform decisions on wider public health implementation of this intervention in the Americas and beyond. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03631719. Registered on 15 August 2018.

Serostatus testing and dengue vaccine cost-benefit thresholds

The World Health Organization (WHO) currently recommends pre-screening for past infection prior to administration of the only licensed dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV. Using a threshold modelling analysis, we identify settings where this guidance prohibits positive net-benefits, and are thus unfavourable. Generally, however, our model shows test-then-vaccinate strategies can improve CYD-TDV economic viability: effective testing reduces unnecessary vaccination costs while increasing health benefits. With sufficiently low testing cost, those trends outweigh additional screening costs, expanding the range of settings with positive net-benefits. This work highlights two aspects for further analysis of test-then-vaccinate strategies. We found that starting routine testing at younger ages could increase benefits; if real tests are shown to sufficiently address safety concerns, the manufacturer, regulators and WHO should revisit guidance restricting use to 9-years-and-older recipients. We also found that repeat testing could improve return-on-investment (ROI), despite increasing intervention costs. Thus, more detailed analyses should address questions on repeat testing and testing periodicity, in addition to real test sensitivity and specificity. Our results follow from a mathematical model relating ROI to epidemiology, intervention strategy, and costs for testing, vaccination and dengue infections. We applied this model to a range of strategies, costs and epidemiological settings pertinent to CYD-TDV. However, general trends may not apply locally, so we provide our model and analyses as an R package available via CRAN, denvax. To apply to their setting, decision-makers need only local estimates of age-specific seroprevalence and costs for secondary infections.

Model-based assessment of public health impact and cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination following screening for prior exposure

The tetravalent dengue vaccine CYD-TDV (Dengvaxia) is the first licensed vaccine against dengue, but recent findings indicate an elevated risk of severe disease among vaccinees without prior dengue virus (DENV) exposure. The World Health Organization currently recommends CYD-TDV only for individuals with serological confirmation of past DENV exposure. Our objective was to evaluate the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccination following serological screening. To do so, we used an agent-based model to simulate DENV transmission with and without vaccination over a 10-year timeframe. Across a range of values for the proportion of vaccinees with prior DENV exposure, we projected the proportion of symptomatic and hospitalized cases averted as a function of the sensitivity and specificity of serological screening. Scenarios about the cost-effectiveness of screening and vaccination were chosen to be representative of Brazil and the Philippines. We found that public health impact depended primarily on sensitivity in high-transmission settings and on specificity in low-transmission settings. Cost-effectiveness could be achievable from the perspective of a public payer provided that sensitivity and the value of a disability-adjusted life-year were both high, but only in high-transmission settings. Requirements for reducing relative risk and achieving cost-effectiveness from an individual perspective were more restricted, due to the fact that those who test negative pay for screening but receive no benefit. Our results predict that cost-effectiveness could be achieved only in high-transmission areas of dengue-endemic countries with a relatively high per capita GDP, such as Panamá (13,680 USD), Brazil (8,649 USD), México (8,201 USD), or Thailand (5,807 USD). In conclusion, vaccination with CYD-TDV following serological screening could have a positive impact in some high-transmission settings, provided that screening is highly specific (to minimize individual harm), at least moderately sensitive (to maximize population benefit), and sufficiently inexpensive (depending on the setting).

Seroprevalence for dengue virus in a hyperendemic area and associated socioeconomic and demographic factors using a cross-sectional design and a geostatistical approach, state of São Paulo, Brazil

BACKGROUND

São José do Rio Preto is one of the cities of the state of São Paulo, Brazil, that is hyperendemic for dengue, with the presence of the four dengue serotypes.

OBJECTIVES

to calculate dengue seroprevalence in a neighbourhood of São José do Rio Preto and identify if socioeconomic and demographic covariates are associated with dengue seropositivity.

METHODS

A cohort study to evaluate dengue seroprevalence and incidence and associated factors on people aged 10 years or older, was assembled in Vila Toninho neighbourhood, São José do Rio Preto. The participant enrolment occurred from October 2015 to March 2016 (the first wave of the cohort study), when blood samples were collected for serological test (ELISA IgG anti-DENV) and questionnaires were administrated on socio-demographic variables. We evaluated the data collected in this first wave using a cross-sectional design. We considered seropositive the participants that were positive in the serological test (seronegative otherwise). We modelled the seroprevalence with a logistic regression in a geostatistical approach. The Bayesian inference was made using integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA) coupled with the Stochastic Partial Differential Equation method (SPDE).

RESULTS

We found 986 seropositive individuals for DENV in 1322 individuals surveyed in the study area in the first wave of the cohort study, corresponding to a seroprevalence of 74.6% (95%CI: 72.2-76.9). Between the population that said never had dengue fever, 68.4% (566/828) were dengue seropositive. Older people, non-white and living in a house (instead of in an apartment), were positively associated with dengue seropositivity. We adjusted for the other socioeconomic and demographic covariates, and accounted for residual spatial dependence between observations, which was found to present up to 800 m.

CONCLUSIONS

Only one in four people aged 10 years or older did not have contact with any of the serotypes of dengue virus in Vila Toninho neighbourhood in São José do Rio Preto. Age, race and type of house were associated with the occurrence of the disease. The use of INLA in a geostatistical approach in a Bayesian context allowed us to take into account the spatial dependence between the observations and identify the associated covariates to dengue seroprevalence.

Effects of infection history on dengue virus infection and pathogenicity

The understanding of immunological interactions among the four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes and their epidemiological implications is often hampered by the lack of individual-level infection history. Using a statistical framework that infers full infection history, we analyze a prospective pediatric cohort in Nicaragua to characterize how infection history modulates the risks of DENV infection and subsequent clinical disease. After controlling for age, one prior infection is associated with 54% lower, while two or more are associated with 91% higher, risk of a new infection, compared to DENV-naive children. Children >8 years old have 55% and 120% higher risks of infection and subsequent disease, respectively, than their younger peers. Among children with ≥1 prior infection, intermediate antibody titers increase, whereas high titers lower, the risk of subsequent infection, compared with undetectable titers. Such complex dependency needs to be considered in the design of dengue vaccines and vaccination strategies.

An agent-based model of dengue virus transmission shows how uncertainty about breakthrough infections influences vaccination impact projections

Prophylactic vaccination is a powerful tool for reducing the burden of infectious diseases, due to a combination of direct protection of vaccinees and indirect protection of others via herd immunity. Computational models play an important role in devising strategies for vaccination by making projections of its impacts on public health. Such projections are subject to uncertainty about numerous factors, however. For example, many vaccine efficacy trials focus on measuring protection against disease rather than protection against infection, leaving the extent of breakthrough infections (i.e., disease ameliorated but infection unimpeded) among vaccinees unknown. Our goal in this study was to quantify the extent to which uncertainty about breakthrough infections results in uncertainty about vaccination impact, with a focus on vaccines for dengue. To realistically account for the many forms of heterogeneity in dengue virus (DENV) transmission, which could have implications for the dynamics of indirect protection, we used a stochastic, agent-based model for DENV transmission informed by more than a decade of empirical studies in the city of Iquitos, Peru. Following 20 years of routine vaccination of nine-year-old children at 80% coverage, projections of the proportion of disease episodes averted varied by a factor of 1.76 (95% CI: 1.54-2.06) across the range of uncertainty about breakthrough infections. This was equivalent to the range of vaccination impact projected across a range of uncertainty about vaccine efficacy of 0.268 (95% CI: 0.210-0.329). Until uncertainty about breakthrough infections can be addressed empirically, our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for it in models of vaccination impact.