Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution - Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca)

Effect of uneven tolerance to human disturbance on dominance interactions of top predators

Anthropogenic activities may alter felid assemblage structure, facilitating the persistence of tolerant species (commonly mesopredators), excluding ecologically demanding ones (top predators) and, consequently, changing coexistence rules. We aimed to determine how human activities influence intraguild relationships among top predators and their cascading effects on mesopredators, which remain poorly understood despite evidence of top carnivore decline. We used structural equation modeling at a continental scale to investigate how habitat quality and quantity, livestock density, and other human pressures modified the intraguild relations of the 3 species that are at the top of the food chain in the Neotropics: jaguars (Panthera onca), pumas (Puma concolor), and ocelots (Leopardus pardalis). We included presence-absence data derived from systematic studies compiled in Neocarnivores data set for these felid species at 0.0833° resolution. Human disturbance reduced the probability of jaguar occurrence by -0.35 standard deviations. Unexpectedly, the presence of sheep (Ovis aries) or goats (Capra aegagrus hircus) and jaguars was positively related to the presence of pumas, whereas puma presence was negatively related to the presence of ocelots. Extent of forest cover had more of an effect on jaguar (β = 0.23) and ocelot (β = 0.12) occurrences than the extent of protected area, which did not have a significant effect. The lack of effect of human activities on puma presence and the positive effect of small livestock supports the notion that pumas are more adaptable to habitat disturbance than jaguars. Our findings suggest that human disturbance has the potential to reverse the hierarchical competition dominance among large felids, leading to an unbalanced community structure. This shift disadvantages jaguars and elevates the position of pumas in the assemblage hierarchy, resulting in the exclusion of ocelots, despite their relatively lower susceptibility to anthropogenic disturbance. Our results suggest that conservation efforts should extend beyond protected areas to encompass the surrounding landscape, where complexities and potential conflicts are more pronounced.

Multinational evaluation of genetic diversity indicators for the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework

Under the recently adopted Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, 196 Parties committed to reporting the status of genetic diversity for all species. To facilitate reporting, three genetic diversity indicators were developed, two of which focus on processes contributing to genetic diversity conservation: maintaining genetically distinct populations and ensuring populations are large enough to maintain genetic diversity. The major advantage of these indicators is that they can be estimated with or without DNA-based data. However, demonstrating their feasibility requires addressing the methodological challenges of using data gathered from diverse sources, across diverse taxonomic groups, and for countries of varying socio-economic status and biodiversity levels. Here, we assess the genetic indicators for 919 taxa, representing 5271 populations across nine countries, including megadiverse countries and developing economies. Eighty-three percent of the taxa assessed had data available to calculate at least one indicator. Our results show that although the majority of species maintain most populations, 58% of species have populations too small to maintain genetic diversity. Moreover, genetic indicator values suggest that IUCN Red List status and other initiatives fail to assess genetic status, highlighting the critical importance of genetic indicators.

Neotropical mammal responses to megafires in the Brazilian Pantanal

The increasing frequency and severity of human-caused fires likely have deleterious effects on species distribution and persistence. In 2020, megafires in the Brazilian Pantanal burned 43% of the biome's unburned area and resulted in mass mortality of wildlife. We investigated changes in habitat use or occupancy for an assemblage of eight mammal species in Serra do Amolar, Brazil, following the 2020 fires using a pre- and post-fire camera trap dataset. Additionally, we estimated the density for two naturally marked species, jaguars Panthera onca and ocelots Leopardus pardalis. Of the eight species, six (ocelots, collared peccaries Dicotyles tajacu, giant armadillos Priodontes maximus, Azara's agouti Dasyprocta azarae, red brocket deer Mazama americana, and tapirs Tapirus terrestris) had declining occupancy following fires, and one had stable habitat use (pumas Puma concolor). Giant armadillo experienced the most precipitous decline in occupancy from 0.431 ± 0.171 to 0.077 ± 0.044 after the fires. Jaguars were the only species with increasing habitat use, from 0.393 ± 0.127 to 0.753 ± 0.085. Jaguar density remained stable across years (2.8 ± 1.3, 3.7 ± 1.3, 2.6 ± 0.85/100 km2), while ocelot density increased from 13.9 ± 3.2 to 16.1 ± 5.2/100 km2. However, the low number of both jaguars and ocelots recaptured after the fire period suggests that immigration may have sustained the population. Our results indicate that the megafires will have significant consequences for species occupancy and fitness in fire-affected areas. The scale of megafires may inhibit successful recolonization, thus wider studies are needed to investigate population trends.

Diversity and conservation of mammals in indigenous territories of southern Mexico: proposal for an "Archipelago Reserve"

Southern Mexico's tropical forests are home to the country's highest richness of mammal species; La Chinantla region is situated within this area, its name from the indigenous group residing in the area and holding territorial ownership, namely the Chinantecos. In La Chinantla, there are no Protected Areas; instead, there are Areas Destined Voluntarily for Conservation (ADVC) and "Voluntary Conservation Areas" (VCA), that are managed by local inhabitants through social consensus. These ADVC may function as an archipelago reserve, which represents regional diversity, including the social context, through complementarity. To verify its biodiversity, we analyzed the richness, composition, distribution, and conservation of wild mammals in the region. Records were obtained from four sources-primary data collection, databases, scientific literature, and community monitoring-and were organized into four zones based on altitudinal and vegetation gradients. We compared the diversity between zones for three categories of mammals: small (<100 gr.), bats, and medium and large (>100 gr.). 134 species were identified comprising 11 orders, 26 families and 86 genera. The zone with highest elevation presented the greatest species richness for the assemblage of mammals and terrestrial mammals, while the zone with the lowest elevation had the highest richness of bats. For each mammal category, the zone with the most species also registered the highest number of exclusive species. For the assemblage of mammals and for medium and large mammals, the similarity index was highest between the two intermediate zones, while for small mammals and bats, the greatest similarity occurred between the areas of higher altitude. The study region was found to have the second highest richness of mammals in Mexico. Finally, we suggest that the conservation proposals by indigenous people could function as a set of "islands" that promote the conservation of biodiversity, possibly as an Archipelago Reserve.

Tourism-supported working lands sustain a growing jaguar population in the Colombian Llanos

Understanding large carnivore demography on human-dominated lands is a priority to inform conservation strategies, yet few studies examine long-term trends. Jaguars (Panthera onca) are one such species whose population trends and survival rates remain unknown across working lands. We integrated nine years of camera trap data and tourist photos to estimate jaguar density, survival, abundance, and probability of tourist sightings on a working ranch and tourism destination in Colombia. We found that abundance increased from five individuals in 2014 to 28 in 2022, and density increased from 1.88 ± 0.87 per 100 km² in 2014 to 3.80 ± 1.08 jaguars per 100 km² in 2022. The probability of a tourist viewing a jaguar increased from 0% in 2014 to 40% in 2020 before the Covid-19 pandemic. Our results are the first robust estimates of jaguar survival and abundance on working lands. Our findings highlight the importance of productive lands for jaguar conservation and suggest that a tourism destination and working ranch can host an abundant population of jaguars when accompanied by conservation agreements and conflict interventions. Our analytical model that combines conventional data collection with tourist sightings can be applied to other species that are observed during tourism activities.Entender los patrones demográficos de los grandes carnívoros al interior de paisajes antrópicos es fundamental para el diseño de estrategias de conservación efectivas. En el Neotrópico, el jaguar (Panthera onca) es una de estas especies cuyas tendencias poblacionales y tasas de supervivencia en paisajes productivos son desconocidas. Para entender mejor estas dinámicas, integramos nueve años de fototrampeo junto a fotos de turistas para estimar la densidad, supervivencia, abundancia y probabilidad de avistamiento de esta especie en una finca ganadera y destino turístico en Colombia. Entre 2014 y 2022 encontramos que la abundancia incrementó de cinco a 28 individuos y la densidad de 1.88 ± 0.87 jaguares/ 100 km² a 3.80 ± 1.08 jaguares/ 100 km². La probabilidad de avistamiento por turistas aumentó de 0% en 2014 a 40% en 2020 antes de la pandemia del Covid-19. Nuestros resultados presentan las primeras estimaciones robustas de abundancia y supervivencia de este felino en paisajes antrópicos dónde el manejo de sistemas productivos combinados con turismo e intervenciones para la mitigación del conflicto puede albergar poblaciones abundantes de jaguares, demostrando su importancia para la conservación de esta especie. Nuestro modelo, al combinar datos convencionales con avistamientos, podría ser aplicado a otras especies observadas durante actividades turísticas.

Impending anthropogenic threats and protected area prioritization for jaguars in the Brazilian Amazon

Jaguars (Panthera onca) exert critical top-down control over large vertebrates across the Neotropics. Yet, this iconic species have been declining due to multiple threats, such as habitat loss and hunting, which are rapidly increasing across the New World tropics. Based on geospatial layers, we extracted socio-environmental variables for 447 protected areas across the Brazilian Amazon to identify those that merit short-term high-priority efforts to maximize jaguar persistence. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and comparisons of measures of central tendency. Our results reveal that areas containing the largest jaguar densities and the largest estimated population sizes are precisely among those confronting most anthropogenic threats. Jaguars are threatened in the world's largest tropical forest biome by deforestation associated with anthropogenic fires, and the subsequent establishment of pastures. By contrasting the highest threats with the highest jaguar population sizes in a bivariate plot, we provide a shortlist of the top-10 protected areas that should be prioritized for immediate jaguar conservation efforts and 74 for short-term action. Many of these are located at the deforestation frontier or in important boundaries with neighboring countries (e.g., Peruvian, Colombian and Venezuelan Amazon). The predicament of a safe future for jaguars can only be ensured if protected areas persist and resist downgrading and downsizing due to both external anthropogenic threats and geopolitical pressures (e.g., infrastructure development and frail law enforcement).

Jaguars in the borderlands: Multinatural conservation for coexistence in the Anthropocene

Conservation in the human-dominated Anthropocene involves negotiations among diverse stakeholders. However, these stakeholder inclusion schemes are often superficial, leading to unsuccessful interventions. Here we apply the theory of multinaturalism as an operational starting point for stakeholder engagement efforts, to deepen local involvement and work towards coexistence. Multinaturalism posits that natures are multiple and can be known in many ways, and that many natures can coexist in the same geographical space. Using the northern jaguar population in the US-Mexico borderlands as a case study, we investigate, through semi-structured interviews, the natural realities (‘natures’) of various stakeholders involved in borderland jaguar conservation. We define a nature as an individual’s or group’s perceptions, knowledge, values, attitudes, and actions towards jaguars. We construct each stakeholder group’s natural reality of this jaguar population through applied thematic analysis, and we identify which aspects of stakeholders’ natures are similar and different, particularly across the international border. For example, we found that many conservationists and activists value the jaguar as an apex predator because its presence signifies ecosystem health and balance, while some ranchers hold existence value for the jaguar’s power and beauty, but resent its role as a predator, due to potential for conflict with livestock. This information provides a greater understanding of differences in realities that may cause conflicts over wildlife-related decisions, and can be used by local conservation actors to facilitate collaboration in a complex transboundary region. This interdisciplinary study highlights the importance of investigating the human dimensions of conservation completely, while treating all forms of knowledge about nature seriously and equally. Due to the unique nature of human-wildlife interactions, each conservation situation requires bespoke consideration, and particularly in diverse landscapes, a multinatural approach offers a novel path towards sustainable human-wildlife coexistence.

Jaguar density in the most threatened ecoregion of the Amazon

Population parameters provide essential information for conservation efforts aimed at target species. We used the spatially explicit capture-recapture method to estimate the jaguar density and population size in the Gurupi Jaguar Conservation Unit (JCU), located in the most threatened ecoregion of the Amazon. The estimated density of 2.62 individuals/100 km2 in a continuous forest of over 10,000 km2 implies a small effective population size, underscoring the threat to the long-term viability of the Gurupi JCU’s jaguar population. We recommend urgent forest restoration actions to reduce fragmentation and improve connectivity between Gurupi JCU and other forest fragments to facilitate jaguar gene flow.

A review of environmental and anthropogenic variables used to model jaguar occurrence

Jaguars (Panthera onca) are a landscape species of conservation importance and our understanding of environmental and anthropogenic drivers of jaguar occurrence is necessary to improve conservation strategies. We reviewed available literature to simply describe environmental and anthropogenic variables used and found to be significant in occurrence modeling. We reviewed 95 documents published from 1980 to 2021 that focused on jaguar occurrence and that used 39 variable types (21 anthropogenic, 18 environmental) among different techniques, scales, and approaches. In general, these variables included both anthropogenic (roads, land use, human activities, and population) and environmental (climate, vegetation, ecological interactions, topographic, water, and others) factors. Twelve variables were identified as affecting jaguar occurrence overall, eleven at local scale and seven at broad scales (regional and continental). Focusing more specifically on the variables that correlate with occurrence should help researchers to make better predictions in areas without quantitative jaguar data.

Multi-lingual multi-platform investigations of online trade in jaguar parts

We conducted research to understand online trade in jaguar parts and develop tools of utility for jaguars and other species. Our research took place to identify potential trade across 31 online platforms in Spanish, Portuguese, English, Dutch, French, Chinese, and Vietnamese. We identified 230 posts from between 2009 and 2019. We screened the images of animal parts shown in search results to verify if from jaguar; 71 posts on 12 different platforms in four languages were accompanied by images identified as definitely jaguar, including a total of 125 jaguar parts (50.7% posts in Spanish, 25.4% Portuguese, 22.5% Chinese and 1.4% French). Search effort varied among languages due to staff availability. Standardizing for effort across languages by dividing number of posts advertising jaguars by search time and number of individual searches completed via term/platform combinations changed the proportions the rankings of posts adjusted for effort were led by Portuguese, Chinese, and Spanish. Teeth were the most common part; 156 posts offered at least 367 teeth and from these, 95 were assessed as definitely jaguar; 71 of which could be linked to a location, with the majority offered for sale from Mexico, China, Bolivia, and Brazil (26.8, 25.4, 16.9, and 12.7% respectively). The second most traded item, skins and derivative items were only identified from Latin America: Brazil (7), followed by Peru (6), Bolivia (3), Mexico (2 and 1 skin piece), and Nicaragua and Venezuela (1 each). Whether by number of posts or pieces, the most commonly parts were: teeth, skins/pieces of skins, heads, and bodies. Our research took place within a longer-term project to assist law enforcement in host countries to better identify potential illegal trade and presents a snapshot of online jaguar trade and methods that also may have utility for many species traded online.

Overlooked jaguar guardians: Indigenous territories and range-wide conservation of a cultural icon

Indigenous territories (ITs) are an integral component of global conservation strategies. We evaluate the range-wide overlap of ITs and the distribution of the jaguar (Panthera onca), a Neotropical apex predator with considerable cultural significance among Indigenous Peoples. We quantified overlap between protected areas (PAs) and ITs among: (1) jaguar range, (2) the species' core habitats, known as Jaguar Conservation Units (JCUs), and (3) corridors connecting JCUs. We further evaluated deforestation rates between 2000 and 2020 among protected, unprotected, and indigenous portions of JCUs and corridors and compared jaguar density estimates among these land tenures. Our results indicate that ITs overlap 27.7% of jaguar range. South American JCUs and corridors, which comprise ~ 94% of jaguar distribution, experienced significantly less deforestation where ITs intersected PAs. We documented an unbalanced ratio of jaguar density estimates between indigenous and non-indigenous areas, highlighting the need for more representative sampling. Collaborative approaches for jaguar conservation, informed and guided by indigenous knowledge, can support more inclusive and effective monitoring that reduces dependence on external support.

Wildfires disproportionately affected jaguars in the Pantanal

The Pantanal wetland harbours the second largest population of jaguars in the world. Alongside climate and land-use changes, the recent mega-fires in the Pantanal may pose a threat to the jaguars' long-term survival. To put these growing threats into perspective, we addressed the reach and intensity of fires that have affected jaguar conservation in the Pantanal ecoregion over the last 16 years. The 2020 fires were the most severe in the annual series, burned 31% of the Pantanal and affected 45% of the estimated jaguar population (87% of these in Brazil); 79% of the home range areas, and 54% of the protected areas within home ranges. Fires consumed core habitats and injured several jaguars, the Pantanal's apex predator. Displacement, hunger, dehydration, territorial defence, and lower fecundity are among the impacts that may affect the abundance of the species. These impacts are likely to affect other less mobile species and, therefore, the ecological stability of the region. A solution to prevent the recurrence of mega-fires lies in combating the anthropogenic causes that intensify drought conditions, such as implementing actions to protect springs, increasing the number and area of protected areas, regulating fire use, and allocating fire brigades before dry seasons.

Collaborative behaviour and coalitions in male jaguars (Panthera onca)—evidence and comparison with other felids

Abstract

Most large felids are classified as solitary species, with only lions (Panthera leo) and cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) exhibiting social, collaborative behaviours. Herein, we present evidence of the formation of male coalitions by jaguars (Panthera onca), based on data from five studies conducted with camera trapping, GPS telemetry, and direct observations in the Venezuelan Llanos and Brazilian Pantanal. Out of 7062 male records obtained with camera traps or visual observations, we detected 105 cases of male-male interactions, of which we classified 18 as aggression, nine as tolerance, 70 as cooperation/coalition, and eight as unidentified. In two studies, two male jaguars formed stable coalitions lasting over 7 years each. In the Llanos, each coalition male paired and mated with several females. For male jaguar coalitions, we documented similar behaviours as recorded earlier in lions or cheetahs, which included patrolling and marking territory together, invading territories of other males, collaborative chasing and killing other jaguars, and sharing prey. However, different from lions or cheetahs, associated male jaguars spent less time together, did not cooperate with females, and did not hunt cooperatively together. Our analysis of literature suggested that male jaguar coalitions were more likely to form when females had small home range size, a proxy of females’ concentration, while in lions, the male group size was directly correlated with the female group size. Similarly, locally concentrated access to females may drive formation of male coalitions in cheetahs. We conclude that high biomass and aggregation of prey are likely drivers of sociality in felids.

Significance statement

The division into social and solitary species in large felids has so far seemed unambiguous, with only lions and cheetahs classified as social species, in which male coalitions also occurred. Our data show that, under certain conditions, male coalitions may also form in jaguar populations. Factors that drive formation of male coalitions in lions and cheetahs, but not in other species of large cats, have not been clear until now. Our analyses indicate that in jaguars, lions, and cheetahs, the concentration of females likely plays the most important role. In jaguars, the probability of male coalition occurrence is highest in populations with the smallest mean female home range size (and thus likely high local density of females), while in lions, male group size is most strongly correlated with female group size.

Integrating presence-only and occupancy data to model habitat use for the northernmost population of jaguars

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become an essential tool for the management and conservation of imperiled species. However, many at-risk species are rare and characterized by limited data on their spatial distribution and habitat relationships. This has led to the development of SDMs that integrate multiple types and sources of data to leverage more information and provide improved predictions of habitat associations. We developed a novel integrated species distribution model to predict habitat suitability for jaguars (Panthera onca) in the border region between northern Mexico and the southwestern USA. Our model combined presence-only and occupancy data to identify key environmental correlates, and we used model results to develop a probability of use map. We adopted a logistic regression modeling framework, which we found to be more straightforward and less computationally intensive to fit than Poisson point process-based models. Model results suggested that high terrain ruggedness and the presence of riparian vegetation were most strongly related to habitat use by jaguars in our study region. Our best model, on average, predicted that there is currently 25,463 km² of usable habitat in our study region. The United States portion of the study region, which makes up 38.6% of the total area, contained 40.6% of the total usable habitat. Even though there have been few detections of jaguars in the southwestern USA in recent decades, our results suggest that protection of currently suitable habitats, along with increased conservation efforts, could significantly contribute to the recovery of jaguars in the USA.

Jaguars in the matrix: population, prey abundance and land-cover change in a fragmented landscape in western Mexico

Habitat fragmentation threatens biodiversity worldwide, particularly affecting large-bodied species that require vast territories and move across long distances, including most large felids. The jaguar Panthera onca has lost more than half of its habitat throughout its range and its subpopulations are becoming isolated, making them susceptible to local extinction. Knowledge about the status of its subpopulations in highly fragmented environments is lacking but urgently needed. Using camera traps during 2019–2020, we estimated number of individuals, age classes and sex ratio, occupancy, relative abundance and density of jaguars in Nayarit, western Mexico. We also determined the relative abundance of potential prey and estimated the land-cover change rate during 1999–2019, using GIS. We found that a resident subpopulation of five adult females, two adult males and one cub, at a high density (5.3 individuals/100 km2), is supported by at least 14 wild prey species. Natural habitat in the area is rapidly decreasing because of expanding agriculture and shrimp farming: agricultural areas increased from 39 to 50% and mangroves decreased from 35 to 26% of the study area over 20 years. The high jaguar population density and the diversity and relative abundance of remaining wild prey are remarkable, considering that natural habitat in the area is highly fragmented, shrinking rapidly and embedded in a matrix of human-dominated land-cover types. Effective conservation actions are needed urgently, including the protection of patches with native vegetation, reforestation to maintain connectivity between these patches, and the involvement of local communities.

Density and habitat use of one of the last jaguar populations of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest: Is there still hope?

The jaguar (Panthera onca) plays an important role in maintaining biodiversity and ecological processes. We evaluated the status of a jaguar population in one of the last stronghold habitats for its conservation in the Atlantic Forest, the Rio Doce State Park (RDSP). We used a random survey design from 2016/17 to estimate jaguar abundance and density as well as its occupancy and detection probabilities in the entire Park's area. To monitor for temporal fluctuations in density and abundance, we used a systematic survey design in the southern portion of the Park where jaguars were more recorded when using the random approach. We then conducted two surveys in 2017/18 and 2020. Our 2016/17 random survey revealed that jaguar density (0.11 ± SE 0.28 individuals/100 km2) was the lowest obtained for the species across the Atlantic Forest. We noticed that jaguar density increased three times from 2017/18 (0.55 ± SE 0.45 individuals/100 km2) to 2020 (1.61 ± SE 0.6 individuals/100 km2). Jaguar occupancy and detection probability were 0.40 and 0.08, respectively. The low jaguar occupancy probability was positively associated with smaller distances from lakes and records of potential prey. The detection probability was positively associated with prey detection, the rainy season, and smaller distances from lakes. Our work contributes to a growing awareness of the potential conservation value of a protected area in a human-dominated landscape as one of the last strongholds for jaguars across the Atlantic Forest.

Amazon islands as predator refugia: jaguar density and temporal activity in Maracá-Jipioca

Limited space on islands usually cannot sustain stable populations of large predators. However, jaguars, the largest cat species in the Americas, unexpectedly occur in the Estação Ecológica Maracá-Jipioca reserve, a system of continental Amazonian islands in the Atlantic Ocean. We investigated jaguar population structure, density, and activity patterns. We placed 25 camera-trap stations across 149.19 km2 and used spatially explicit capture–recapture to estimate density, and Rayleigh’s test to assess activity patterns. We identified 21 individuals (12 females, six males, and three cubs) and estimated an adult density of 6.7 individuals per 100 km2, which equals a population of approximately 43 jaguars. The population is composed mostly of females (66%) in relation to males (33%). Male and female activity patterns overlapped and showed more activity during daytime. The high jaguar density and the presence of females with cubs indicate that these islands are likely natural refugia for jaguars, reinforcing the importance of this protected area for jaguar conservation and possibly challenging the paradigm that large-mammal populations are not feasible in restricted islands.

Impacts of hydropower on the habitat of jaguars and tigers

The rapid expansion of hydropower across tropical landscapes has caused extensive habitat loss and degradation, triggering biodiversity loss. Despite known risks to freshwater biodiversity, the flooding of terrestrial habitats caused by dam construction, and associated impacts on terrestrial biota, have been rarely considered. To help fill this knowledge gap, we quantified the habitat loss following inundation of hydropower reservoirs across the range of two iconic species, jaguars and tigers. To do so, we compiled existing and planned dams intersecting the distribution of these apex predators. We found 164 dams intersecting the jaguar range, in total flooding 25,397 km². For tigers, we identified 421 dams, amounting to 13,750 km². As hydropower infrastructure is projected to expand in the decades ahead, these values are expected to increase greatly, particularly within the distribution of jaguars where the number of dams will nearly quadruple (429 planned dams). Despite the relatively few dams (41) planned across the range of tigers, most will intersect priority conservation areas for this species. We recommend a more cautious pursuit of hydropower in topographically flat regions, to avoid extensive habitat flooding which has occurred in the Neotropics, and avoiding dam construction in priority conservation landscapes for tigers.

Palmeirim and Gibson quantify the global habitat loss of jaguars and tigers due to existing and planned hydropower dams and relate these to published estimates of species densities from nearby regions. This analysis shows how dam construction intersects priority conservation areas for these apex predators.

Beyond words: From jaguar population trends to conservation and public policy in Mexico

The jaguar (Panthera onca) is one of the most threatened carnivores in the Americas. Despite a long history of research on this charismatic species, to date there have been few systematic efforts to assess its population size and status in most countries across its distribution range. We present here the results of the two National Jaguar Surveys for Mexico, the first national censuses in any country within the species distribution. We estimated jaguar densities from field data collected at 13 localities in 2008-2010 (2010 hereafter) and 11 localities in 2016-2018 (2018 hereafter). We used the 2010 census results as the basis to develop a National Jaguar Conservation Strategy that identified critical issues for jaguar conservation in Mexico. We worked with the Mexican government to implement the conservation strategy and then evaluated its effectivity. To compare the 2010 and 2018 results, we estimated the amount of jaguar-suitable habitat in the entire country based on an ecological niche model for both periods. Suitable jaguar habitat covered ~267,063 km2 (13.9% of the country's territory) in 2010 and ~ 288,890 km2 (~14.8% of the country's territory) in 2018. Using the most conservative density values for each priority region, we estimated jaguar densities for both the high and low suitable habitats. The total jaguar population was estimated in ~4,000 individuals for 2010 census and ~4,800 for the 2018 census. The Yucatan Peninsula was the region with the largest population, around 2000 jaguars, in both censuses. Our promising results indicate that the actions we proposed in the National Jaguar Conservation Strategy, some of which have been implemented working together with the Federal Government, other NGO's, and land owners, are improving jaguar conservation in Mexico. The continuation of surveys and monitoring programs of the jaguar populations in Mexico will provide accurate information to design and implement effective, science-based conservation measures to try to ensure that robust jaguar populations remain a permanent fixture of Mexico's natural heritage.

Environmental and anthropogenic factors synergistically affect space use of jaguars

Large terrestrial carnivores have undergone some of the largest population declines and range reductions of any species, which is of concern as they can have large effects on ecosystem dynamics and function.^1-4 The jaguar (Panthera onca) is the apex predator throughout the majority of the Neotropics; however, its distribution has been reduced by >50% and it survives in increasingly isolated populations.⁵ Consequently, the range-wide management of the jaguar depends upon maintaining core populations connected through multi-national, transboundary cooperation, which requires understanding the movement ecology and space use of jaguars throughout their range.^6-8 Using GPS telemetry data for 111 jaguars from 13 ecoregions within the four biomes that constitute the majority of jaguar habitat, we examined the landscape-level environmental and anthropogenic factors related to jaguar home range size and movement parameters. Home range size decreased with increasing net productivity and forest cover and increased with increasing road density. Speed decreased with increasing forest cover with no sexual differences, while males had more directional movements, but tortuosity in movements was not related to any landscape factors. We demonstrated a synergistic relationship between landscape-scale environmental and anthropogenic factors and jaguars' spatial needs, which has applications to the conservation strategy for the species throughout the Neotropics. Using large-scale collaboration, we overcame limitations from small sample sizes typical in large carnivore research to provide a mechanism to evaluate habitat quality for jaguars and an inferential modeling framework adaptable to the conservation of other large terrestrial carnivores.

Intestinal Parasites of Neotropical Wild Jaguars, Pumas, Ocelots, and Jaguarundis in Colombia: Old Friends Brought Back from Oblivion and New Insights

Neotropical wild felids (NWF) are obligate carnivore species present in Central and South America, and some are considered endangered due to constantly decreasing populations. NWF can become infected by a wide range of protozoan and metazoan parasites, some of them affecting their health conditions and others having anthropozoonotic relevance. Parasitological studies on NWF are still very scarce, and most data originated from dead or captive animals. On this account, the current study aimed to characterize gastrointestinal parasites of free-ranging jaguars (Panthera onca), pumas (Puma concolor), ocelots (Leopardus pardalis), and jaguarundis (Herpailurus yagouaroundi), i.e., four out of six NWF species endemic to Colombia. Fecal samples from jaguars (n = 10) and ocelots (n = 4) were collected between 2012 and 2017 as part of the Jaguar Corridor Initiative from six geographic locations in Colombia. In addition, cestode specimens were obtained during puma and jaguarundi necropsies. Scat samples were processed by standardized sodium acetate-acetic acid-formalin (SAF), sedimentation, and flotation techniques and by carbol fuchsin-stained fecal smears. Morphological evaluation of feces showed the presence of one cestode (Spirometra sp.), a nematode (Toxocara cati), an acanthocephalan (Oncicola sp.), and one cyst-forming coccidian (Cystoisospora-like oocysts). Feces oocysts were submitted to a Toxoplasma gondii-specific PCR for species identification, but no product was amplified. The cestodes isolated from a puma and jaguarundi were molecularly characterized by sequencing cytochrome c oxidase subunit I, identifying them as Taenia omissa and as a T. omissa sister lineage, respectively. These results collectively demonstrate the potential role of NWF as natural reservoir hosts for neglected zoonotic parasites (e.g., Spirometra sp., T. cati) and highlight their possible role in parasite transmission to human communities. Due to public health concerns, the occurrence of these parasites should be monitored in the future for appropriate zoonotic management practices in conservation strategies and wild felid health management programs.

Forest cover mediates large and medium-sized mammal occurrence in a critical link of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor

Connectivity of natural areas through biological corridors is essential for ecosystem resilience and biodiversity conservation. However, robust assessments of biodiversity in corridor areas are often hindered by logistical constraints and the statistical challenges of modeling data from multiple species. Herein, we used a hierarchical community occupancy model in a Bayesian framework to evaluate the status of medium and large-sized mammals in a critical link of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (MBC) in Costa Rica. We used camera traps deployed from 2013-2017 to detect 18 medium (1-15 kg) and 6 large (>15 kg) mammal species in a portion of two Jaguar Conservation Units (JCUs) and the Corridor linking them. Camera traps operated for 16,904 trap nights across 209 stations, covering an area of 880 km2. Forest cover was the most important driver of medium and large-sized mammal habitat use, with forest specialists such as jaguars (Panthera onca) and pumas (Puma concolor) strongly associated with high forest cover, while habitat generalists such as coyotes (Canis latrans) and raccoons (Procyon lotor) were associated with low forest cover. Medium and large-sized mammal species richness was lower in the Corridor area ([Formula: see text] = 9.78±1.84) than in the portions evaluated of the two JCUs ([Formula: see text] = 11.50±1.52). Puma and jaguar habitat use probabilities were strongly correlated with large prey species richness (jaguar, r = 0.59, p<0.001; puma, r = 0.72, p<0.001), and correlated to a lesser extent with medium prey species richness (jaguar, r = 0.36, p = 0.003; puma, r = 0.23, p = 0.064). Low estimated jaguar habitat use probability in one JCU (Central Volcanic Cordillera: [Formula: see text] = 0.15±0.11) suggests that this is not the jaguar stronghold previously assumed. In addition, the western half of the Corridor has low richness of large mammals, making it necessary to take urgent actions to secure habitat connectivity for mammal populations.

Evaluation of the damage caused by in vitro culture and cryopreservation to dermal fibroblasts derived from jaguars: An approach to conservation through biobanks

Ex-situ conservation strategies such as the formation of somatic cell banks are valuable tools for the conservation of jaguars, whose population has been declining in recent years. Once properly established, these cells can be successfully leveraged for future applications. We aimed to assess the effects of in vitro culture and cryopreservation on the establishment of fibroblasts derived from jaguars. Initially, we identified five dermal fibroblastic lines using morphology and immunophenotyping assays; these lines were then subjected to two experiments. In the first experiment, the viability, metabolism, and proliferative activity of cells at different passages (first, third, and tenth) were evaluated. In the second experiment, the cells were cryopreserved and the levels of reactive oxygen species (ROS), mitochondrial membrane potential (ΔΨm) and apoptosis were evaluated after one, three, and ten passages. Noncryopreserved cells were used as controls. The in vitro culture after first, third, and tenth passages and cryopreservation conditions did not affect the proliferative activity and viability. However, cells cultured until tenth passage and frozen/thawed cells showed reduced metabolism. In addition, cryopreserved cells showed higher levels of intracellular ROS and altered ΔΨm when compared with those of noncryopreserved cells. Finally, frozen/thawed cells cultured after ten passages showed reduced proliferative activity and number of viable cells than did frozen/thawed cells cultured after one and three passages. In summary, we have shown that viable fibroblasts can be established from jaguar skin and that although these cells do not show altered viability and proliferative activity, they do undergo damage during extended culture and cryopreservation.

Long-term monitoring of margays (Leopardus wiedii): Implications for understanding low detection rates

Population assessments of wide-ranging, cryptic, terrestrial mammals rely on camera trap surveys. While camera trapping is a powerful method of detecting presence, it is difficult distinguishing rarity from low detection rate. The margay (Leopardus wiedii) is an example of a species considered rare based on its low detection rates across its range. Although margays have a wide distribution, detection rates with camera traps are universally low; consequently, the species is listed as Near Threatened. Our 12-year camera trap study of margays in protected broadleaf forest in Belize suggests that while margays have low detection rate, they do not seem to be rare, rather that they are difficult to detect with camera traps. We detected a maximum of 187 individuals, all with few or no recaptures over the years (mean = 2.0 captures/individual ± SD 2.1), with two-thirds of individuals detected only once. The few individuals that were recaptured across years exhibited long tenures up to 9 years and were at least 10 years old at their final detection. We detected multiple individuals of both sexes at the same locations during the same survey, suggesting overlapping ranges with non-exclusive territories, providing further evidence of a high-density population. By studying the sparse annual datasets across multiple years, we found evidence of an abundant margay population in the forest of the Cockscomb Basin, which might have been deemed low density and rare, if studied in the short term. We encourage more long-term camera trap studies to assess population status of semi-arboreal carnivore species that have hitherto been considered rare based on low detection rates.

Jaguar (Panthera onca) density and tenure in a critical biological corridor

We estimated jaguar density and tenure, and investigated ranging behavior, using camera traps across the Maya Forest Corridor, a human-influenced landscape in central Belize that forms the only remaining connection for jaguar populations inhabiting two regional forest blocks: the Selva Maya and the Maya Mountain Massif. Jaguars were ubiquitous across the study area. Similar to the neighboring Selva Maya, mean density ranged from 1.5 to 3.1 jaguars per 100 km2, estimated by spatial capture-recapture models. Cameras detected almost twice as many males as females, probably reflecting detection bias, and males ranged more widely than females within the camera grid. Both sexes crossed two major rivers, while highway crossings were rare and male-biased, raising concern that the highway could prevent female movement if traffic increases. Jaguars were more transient where the landscape was fragmented with settlements and agriculture than in contiguous forest. Compared with jaguars in the protected forests of the Maya Mountains, jaguars in central Belize displayed a lower potential for investment in intraspecific communication, indicative of a lower quality landscape; however, we did detect mating behavior and juveniles. Tenure of individuals was shorter than in the protected forests, with a higher turnover rate for males than females. At least three-quarters of reported jaguar deaths caused by people were male jaguars, and the majority was retaliation for livestock predation. Jaguars seem relatively tolerant to the human-influenced landscape of central Belize. However, intensification of game hunting and lethal control of predators would threaten population persistence, while increased highway traffic and clear-cutting riparian forest would severely limit the corridor function. Our results show that the viability of the corridor, and thus the long-term survival of jaguar populations in this region, will depend on appropriate land-use planning, nonlethal control of livestock predators, enforcement of game hunting regulations, and wildlife-friendly features in future road developments.

Spatial variance-mass allometry of population density in felids from camera-trapping studies worldwide

Power laws are cornerstone relationships in ecology and evolutionary biology. The density-mass allometry (DMA), which predicts an allometric scaling of population abundance, and Taylor’s law (TL), which predicts a decrease in the population abundance variation along with a decrease in population density, have enhanced our knowledge of inter- and intra-specific variation in population abundance. When combined, these two power laws led to the variance-mass allometry (VMA), which states that larger species have lower spatial variation in population density than smaller species. The VMA has been predicted through theoretical models, however few studies have investigated if this law is also supported by empirical data. Here, to formally test the VMA, we have used the population density estimates obtained through worldwide camera trapping studies for an emblematic and ecologically important carnivorous taxa, the Felidae family. Our results showed that the VMA law hold in felids, as well as the TL and the DMA laws; bigger cat species showed less variation for the population density than smaller species. These results have important implications for the conservation of wildlife population and confirm the validity of important ecological concepts, like the allometric scaling of population growth rate and the slow-fast continuum of life history strategies.

Spatially explicit capture recapture density estimates: Robustness, accuracy and precision in a long-term study of jaguars (Panthera onca)

Camera trapping is the standard field method of monitoring cryptic, low-density mammal populations. Typically, researchers run camera surveys for 60 to 90 days and estimate density using closed population spatially explicit capture-recapture (SCR) models. The SCR models estimate density, capture probability (g0), and a scale parameter (σ) that reflects ranging behaviour. We used a year of camera data from 20 camera stations to estimate the density of male jaguars (Panthera onca) in the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary in Belize, using closed population SCR models. We subsampled the dataset into 276 90-day sessions and 186 180-day sessions. Estimated density fluctuated from 0.51 to 5.30 male jaguars / 100 km2 between the 90-day sessions, with comparatively robust and precise estimates for the 180-day sessions (0.73 to 3.75 male jaguars / 100 km2). We explain the variation in density estimates from the 90-day sessions in terms of temporal variation in social behaviour, specifically male competition and mating events during the three-month wet season. Density estimates from the 90-day sessions varied with σ, but not with the number of individuals detected, suggesting that variation in density was almost fully attributable to changes in estimated ranging behaviour. We found that the models overestimated σ when compared to the mean ranging distance derived from GPS tracking data from two collared individuals in the camera grid. Overestimation of σ when compared to GPS collar data was more pronounced for the 180-day sessions than the 90-day sessions. We conclude that one-off ('snap-shot') short-term, small-scale camera trap surveys do not sufficiently sample wide-ranging large carnivores. When using SCR models to estimate the density from these data, we caution against the use of poor sampling designs and/or misinterpretation of scope of inference. Although the density estimates from one-off, short-term, small-scale camera trap surveys may be statistically accurate within each short-term sampling period, the variation between density estimates from multiple sessions throughout the year illustrate that the estimates obtained should be carefully interpreted and extrapolated, because different factors, such as temporal stochasticity in behaviour of a few individuals, may have strong repercussions on density estimates. Because of temporal variation in behaviour, reliable density estimates will require larger samples of individuals and spatial recaptures than those presented in this study (mean +/- SD = 14.2 +/- 1.2 individuals, 37.7 +/- 4.7 spatial recaptures, N = 276 sessions), which are representative of, or higher than published sample sizes. To satisfy the need for larger samples, camera surveys will need to be more expansive with a higher density of stations. In the absence of this, we advocate longer sampling periods and subsampling through time as a means of understanding and describing stability or variation between density estimates.

Fragmentation and low density as major conservation challenges for the southernmost populations of the European wildcat

Knowledge of population dynamics of threatened species in the wild is key to effective conservation actions. However, at present, there are many examples of endangered animals for which their current situation is unknown, and not just in remote areas and less developed countries. We have explored this topic by studying the paradigmatic case of the European wildcat (Felis silvestris silvestris), an endangered small carnivore whose status has been subjectively established on the basis of non-systematic approaches and opportunistic records. Little is known about its demographic situation, prompting the need for information to improve conservation measures. However, the secretive behaviour of felines along with its low density in natural conditions have prevented the gathering of sufficient data. We developed a field sampling strategy for one of the largest populations (Andalusia, South Spain, 87,268 km2), based on a logistically viable systematic non-intrusive survey by camera-trapping. This study offers the first large-scale estimation for any European wildcat population, based on analytical approaches applied on Species Distribution Models. A hierarchical approach based on a Maxent model for distribution estimation was used, along with Generalised Linear Models for density estimation from explicit spatial capture-recapture data. Our results show that the distribution range is smaller and more highly fragmented than previously assumed. The overall estimated density was very low (0.069 ±0.0019 wildcats/km2) and the protected areas network seems to be insufficient to cover a significant part of the population or a viable nucleus in demographic terms. Indeed, the most important areas remain unprotected. Our main recommendations are to improve the protected area network and/or vigilance programs in hunting estates, in addition to studying and improving connectivity between the main population patches.

Population genetic structure and habitat connectivity for jaguar (Panthera onca) conservation in Central Belize

BACKGROUND

Connectivity among jaguar (Panthera onca) populations will ensure natural gene flow and the long-term survival of the species throughout its range. Jaguar conservation efforts have focused primarily on connecting suitable habitat in a broad-scale. Accelerated habitat reduction, human-wildlife conflict, limited funding, and the complexity of jaguar behaviour have proven challenging to maintain connectivity between populations effectively. Here, we used non-invasive genetic sampling and individual-based conservation genetic analyses to assess genetic diversity and levels of genetic connectivity between individuals in the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary and the Maya Forest Corridor. We used expert knowledge and scientific literature to develop models of landscape permeability based on circuit theory with fine-scale landscape features as ecosystem types, distance to human settlements and roads to predict the most probable jaguar movement across central Belize.

RESULTS

We used 12 highly polymorphic microsatellite loci to identify 50 individual jaguars. We detected high levels of genetic diversity across loci (HE = 0.61, HO = 0.55, and NA = 9.33). Using Bayesian clustering and multivariate models to assess gene flow and genetic structure, we identified one single group of jaguars (K = 1). We identified critical areas for jaguar movement that fall outside the boundaries of current protected areas in central Belize. We detected two main areas of high landscape permeability in a stretch of approximately 18 km between Sittee River Forest Reserve and Manatee Forest Reserve that may increase functional connectivity and facilitate jaguar dispersal from and to Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary. Our analysis provides important insights on fine-scale genetic and landscape connectivity of jaguars in central Belize, an area of conservation concern.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of our study demonstrate high levels of relatively recent gene flow for jaguars between two study sites in central Belize. Our landscape analysis detected corridors of expected jaguar movement between the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary and the Maya Forest Corridor. We highlight the importance of maintaining already established corridors and consolidating new areas that further promote jaguar movement across suitable habitat beyond the boundaries of currently protected areas. Continued conservation efforts within identified corridors will further maintain and increase genetic connectivity in central Belize.

Prey availability and temporal partitioning modulate felid coexistence in Neotropical forests

Carnivores have long been used as model organisms to examine mechanisms that allow coexistence among ecologically similar species. Interactions between carnivores, including competition and predation, comprise important processes regulating local community structure and diversity. We use data from an intensive camera-trapping monitoring program across eight Neotropical forest sites to describe the patterns of spatiotemporal organization of a guild of five sympatric cat species: jaguar (Panthera onca), puma (Puma concolor), ocelot (Leopardus pardalis), jaguarundi (Herpailurus yagouaroundi) and margay (Leopardus wiedii). For the three largest cat species, we developed multi-stage occupancy models accounting for habitat characteristics (landscape complexity and prey availability) and models accounting for species interactions (occupancy estimates of potential competitor cat species). Patterns of habitat-use were best explained by prey availability, rather than habitat structure or species interactions, with no evidence of negative associations of jaguar on puma and ocelot occupancy or puma on ocelot occupancy. We further explore temporal activity patterns and overlap of all five felid species. We observed a moderate temporal overlap between jaguar, puma and ocelot, with differences in their activity peaks, whereas higher temporal partitioning was observed between jaguarundi and both ocelot and margay. Lastly, we conducted temporal overlap analysis and calculated species activity levels across study sites to explore if shifts in daily activity within species can be explained by varying levels of local competition pressure. Activity patterns of ocelots, jaguarundis and margays were similarly bimodal across sites, but pumas exhibited irregular activity patterns, most likely as a response to jaguar activity. Activity levels were similar among sites and observed differences were unrelated to competition or intraguild killing risk. Our study reveals apparent spatial and temporal partitioning for most of the species pairs analyzed, with prey abundance being more important than species interactions in governing the local occurrence and spatial distribution of Neotropical forest felids.