Seroepidemiologic Study Designs for Determining SARS-COV-2 Transmission and Immunity

A seroprevalence study of SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal coronaviruses after the first SARS-CoV-2 circulation in New Caledonia, Pacific region

Objectives

This study aimed to determine the seroprevalence of immunoglobulin G antibodies targeting SARS-CoV-2 and other human coronaviruses after the first circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in New Caledonia, Pacific region.

Methods

Blood samples were collected to detect the presence of SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G antibodies. The sampling took place between July 2021 and July 2022 but was interrupted after the first circulation of SARS-CoV-2 (September 2021-March 2022) in New Caledonia. Data on ethnicity, age, gender, main residence, and anteriority of COVID-19 and vaccination were collected and analyzed.

Results

A total of 747 participants, representative of New Caledonia's adult population, were included in the study. We found that 81% of the population had antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 at the end of July 2022. The vaccination rate was 75%, whereas infections had affected 40% of the population. Individuals aged >45 years were significantly more vaccinated than those aged 18-44 years (80%, 95% confidence interval 74-84%). Oceanians were the most infected (50%, 95% confidence interval 42-57%).

Conclusion

In New Caledonia, we show a high immunity rate (81%) after the first waves of SARS-CoV-2 circulation and the vaccination campaign. The analyses showed spatial heterogeneities in the infection rate across the territory and revealed that Oceanians were the most infected. Our study also highlighted high exposure of New Caledonia's population to other human coronaviruses.

Quantitating SARS-CoV-2 Neutralizing Antibodies from Human Dried Blood Spots

Background

In the earliest days of COVID-19 pandemic, the collection of dried blood spots (DBS) enabled public health laboratories to undertake population-scale seroprevalence studies to estimate rates of SARS-CoV-2 exposure. With SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity levels now estimated to exceed 94% in the United States, attention has turned to using DBS to assess functional (neutralizing) antibodies within cohorts of interest.

Methods

Contrived DBS eluates from convalescent, fully vaccinated and pre-COVID-19 serum samples were evaluated in SARS-CoV-2 plaque reduction neutralization titer (PRNT) assays, a SARS-CoV-2 specific 8-plex microsphere immunoassay, a cell-based pseudovirus assay, and two different spike-ACE2 inhibition assays, an in-house Luminex-based RBD-ACE2 inhibition assay and a commercial real-time PCR-based inhibition assay (NAB-Sure™).

Results

DBS eluates from convalescent individuals were compatible with the spike-ACE2 inhibition assays, but not cell-based pseudovirus assays or PRNT. However, the insensitivity of cell-based pseudovirus assays was overcome with DBS eluates from vaccinated individuals with high SARS-CoV-2 antibody titers.

Conclusion

SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing titers can be derived with confidence from DBS eluates, thereby opening the door to the use of these biospecimens for the analysis of vulnerable populations and normally hard to reach communities.

Exploring cell-free assays for COVID-19 serosurvey

Serosurveys to monitor immunity toward COVID-19 in the population are primarily performed using an ELISA to screen samples for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, followed by confirmation by a virus neutralization test, which is considered the Gold Standard. However, virus neutralization test may not be feasible for some laboratories because of the requirement for specific facilities and trained personnel. In an attempt to address this limitation, we evaluated three cell-free methods as potential alternatives for assessing SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in human population from plasma. We report the establishment of two inhibition ELISAs designed to detect anti-Spike RBD IgG antibodies and a microsphere quantitative suspension array technology assay, based on the Luminex xMAP platform, to measure the presence of antibodies against various SARS-CoV-2 antigens, including anti-RBD. These methods were also compared to a commercial chemiluminescent immunoassay designed for anti-RBD antibodies detection and to the combined ELISA + virus neutralization test strategy. These cell-free assays performed equally to estimate the percentage of positive and negative samples and could be used to determine the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in human population, at least in cohort with high-expected prevalence, without the use of seroneutralization assay.

Prevalence and correlates of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity among people who inject drugs in Baltimore, Maryland

Background

SARS-CoV-2 serosurveys can help characterize disparities in SARS-CoV-2 infection and identify gaps in population immunity. Data on SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among people who inject drugs (PWID) are limited.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional study between December 2020 and July 2022 among 561 participants in the AIDS Linked to the IntraVenous Experience (ALIVE) study-a community-based cohort of current and former PWID in Baltimore, Maryland. Serum samples were assayed for infection-induced anti-nucleocapsid (anti-N) and infection and/or vaccination-induced anti-spike-1 (anti-S) SARS-CoV-2 IgG. We estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) via modified Poisson regression models.

Results

The median age was 59 years, 35% were female, 84% were non-Hispanic Black, and 16% reported recent injection drug use. Anti-N antibody prevalence was 26% and anti-S antibody prevalence was 63%. Anti-N and anti-S antibody prevalence increased over time. Being employed (aPR=1.53 [95%CI=1.11-2.11]) was associated with higher anti-N prevalence, while a cancer history (aPR=0.40 [95%CI=0.17-0.90]) was associated with lower anti-N prevalence. HIV infection was associated with higher anti-S prevalence (aPR=1.13 [95%CI=1.02-1.27]), while younger age and experiencing homelessness (aPR=0.78 [95%CI=0.60-0.99]) were factors associated with lower anti-S prevalence. Substance use-related behaviors were not significantly associated with anti-N or anti-S prevalence.

Conclusions

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence increased over time among current and former PWID, suggesting cumulative increases in the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination; however, there were disparities in infection-induced seroprevalence and infection and/or vaccine-induced seroprevalence within this study sample. Dedicated prevention and vaccination programs are needed to prevent disparities in infection and gaps in population immunity among PWID during emerging epidemics.

serosim: An R package for simulating serological data arising from vaccination, epidemiological and antibody kinetics processes

serosim is an open-source R package designed to aid inference from serological studies, by simulating data arising from user-specified vaccine and antibody kinetics processes using a random effects model. Serological data are used to assess population immunity by directly measuring individuals' antibody titers. They uncover locations and/or populations which are susceptible and provide evidence of past infection or vaccination to help inform public health measures and surveillance. Both serological data and new analytical techniques used to interpret them are increasingly widespread. This creates a need for tools to simulate serological studies and the processes underlying observed titer values, as this will enable researchers to identify best practices for serological study design, and provide a standardized framework to evaluate the performance of different inference methods. serosim allows users to specify and adjust model inputs representing underlying processes responsible for generating the observed titer values like time-varying patterns of infection and vaccination, population demography, immunity and antibody kinetics, and serological sampling design in order to best represent the population and disease system(s) of interest. This package will be useful for planning sampling design of future serological studies, understanding determinants of observed serological data, and validating the accuracy and power of new statistical methods.

Evaluating the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG in five different districts of Bangladesh. A seroepidemiological study

BACKGROUND

We aimed to measure the seroprevalences and levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG in children, unvaccinated and vaccinated adults in five districts of Bangladesh and thus, investigate the association of seroprevalence and anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG level with respect to different attributes of study participants.

METHODS

In the present study, the seroprevalences and levels of plasma anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG were measured in children (n = 202), unvaccinated adults (n = 112), and vaccinated adults (n = 439) using quantitative ELISA.

RESULTS

The overall seroprevalence in the three groups of the study participants were 58.3% (90%CrI: 52.3-64.2%), 62.2% (90%CrI: 54.4-70.0%) and 90.7% (90%CrI: 88.3-92.9%), respectively. Multivariate logistic and linear regression revealed no significant association of seropositivity and levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG with the baseline characteristics of the children. AB blood group (vs A; aOR=0.21, 95% CI: 0.04-0.92, p = 0.04), O blood group (vs A; aOR=0.09, 95% CI: 0.02-0.32, p = 0.0004), BMI (aOR=1.61, 95% CI: 1.14-2.37, p = 0.01) and overweight obesity status (vs normal, aOR=0.12, 95% CI: 0.02-0.76, p = 0.03) were significantly associated with seropositivity in unvaccinated adults after adjusting for confounders. Age (p = 0.002) was significantly associated with anti-SARS-CoV-2 level in vaccinated adults after adjusting for confounders. Most of the children and unvaccinated adults belonged to the lower antibody response class which implicates the necessity of vaccination.

CONCLUSION

This study portrays a better way of evaluating transmission of virus and gain a better understanding of the true extent of infection as illustrated by the high rates of seroprevalences in children and unvaccinated adults. The findings of this study depicted from the antibody response also suggest the importance of vaccination.

Limitations introduced by a low participation rate of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence data

BACKGROUND

There has been a large influx of COVID-19 seroprevalence studies, but comparability between the seroprevalence estimates has been an issue because of heterogeneities in testing platforms and study methodology. One potential source of heterogeneity is the response or participation rate.

METHODS

We conducted a review of participation rates (PR) in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies collected by SeroTracker and examined their effect on the validity of study conclusions. PR was calculated as the count of participants for whom the investigators had collected a valid sample, divided by the number of people invited to participate in the study. A multivariable beta generalized linear model with logit link was fitted to determine if the PR of international household and community-based seroprevalence studies was associated with the factors of interest, from 1 December 2019 to 10 March 2021.

RESULTS

We identified 90 papers based on screening and were able to calculate the PR for 35 out of 90 papers (39%), with a median PR of 70% and an interquartile range of 40.92; 61% of the studies did not report PR.

CONCLUSIONS

Many SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies do not report PR. It is unclear what the median PR rate would be had a larger portion not had limitations in reporting. Low participation rates indicate limited representativeness of results. Non-probabilistic sampling frames were associated with higher participation rates but may be less representative. Standardized definitions of participation rate and data reporting necessary for the PR calculations are essential for understanding the representativeness of seroprevalence estimates in the population of interest.

SARS-CoV-2 antibody persistence after five and twelve months: A cohort study from South-Eastern Norway

Objectives

To assess total antibody levels against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2 (SARS CoV-2) spike protein up to 12 months after Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) infection in non-vaccinated individuals and the possible predictors of antibody persistence.

Methods

This is the first part of a prospective multi-centre cohort study.

Participants

The study included SARS-CoV-2 real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) positive and negative participants in South-Eastern Norway from February to December 2020. Possible predictors of SARS-CoV-2 total antibody persistence was assessed. The SARS-CoV-2 total antibody levels against spike protein were measured three to five months after PCR in 391 PCR-positive and 703 PCR-negative participants; 212 PCR-positive participants were included in follow-up measurements at 10 to 12 months. The participants completed a questionnaire including information about symptoms, comorbidities, allergies, body mass index (BMI), and hospitalisation.

Primary outcome

The SARS-CoV-2 total antibody levels against spike protein three to five and 10 to 12 months after PCR positive tests.

Results

SARS-CoV-2 total antibodies against spike protein were present in 366 (94%) non-vaccinated PCR-positive participants after three to five months, compared with nine (1%) PCR-negative participants. After 10 to 12 months, antibodies were present in 204 (96%) non-vaccinated PCR-positive participants. Of the PCR-positive participants, 369 (94%) were not hospitalised. The mean age of the PCR-positive participants was 48 years (SD 15, range 20–85) and 50% of them were male. BMI ≥ 25 kg/m² was positively associated with decreased antibody levels (OR 2.34, 95% CI 1.06 to 5.42). Participants with higher age and self-reported initial fever with chills or sweating were less likely to have decreased antibody levels (age: OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.94 to 0.99; fever: OR 0.33, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.75).

Conclusion

Our results indicate that the level of SARS-CoV-2 total antibodies against spike protein persists for the vast majority of non-vaccinated PCR-positive persons at least 10 to 12 months after mild COVID-19.

The SARS-CoV-2 differential genomic adaptation in response to varying UVindex reveals potential genomic resources for better COVID-19 diagnosis and prevention

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been a pandemic disease reported in almost every country and causes life-threatening, severe respiratory symptoms. Recent studies showed that various environmental selection pressures challenge the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infectivity and, in response, the virus engenders new mutations, leading to the emergence of more virulent strains of WHO concern. Advance prediction of the forthcoming virulent SARS-CoV-2 strains in response to the principal environmental selection pressures like temperature and solar UV radiation is indispensable to overcome COVID-19. To discover the UV-solar radiation-driven genomic adaption of SARS-CoV-2, a curated dataset of 2,500 full-grade genomes from five different UVindex regions (25 countries) was subjected to in-depth downstream genome-wide analysis. The recurrent variants that best respond to UV-solar radiations were extracted and extensively annotated to determine their possible effects and impacts on gene functions. This study revealed 515 recurrent single nucleotide variants (rcntSNVs) as SARS-CoV-2 genomic responses to UV-solar radiation, of which 380 were found to be distinct. For all discovered rcntSNVs, 596 functional effects (rcntEffs) were detected, containing 290 missense, 194 synonymous, 81 regulatory, and 31 in the intergenic region. The highest counts of missense rcntSNVs in spike (27) and nucleocapsid (26) genes explain the SARS-CoV-2 genomic adjustment to escape immunity and prevent UV-induced DNA damage, respectively. Among all, the most commonly observed rcntEffs were four missenses (RdRp-Pro327Leu, N-Arg203Lys, N-Gly204Arg, and Spike-Asp614Gly) and one synonymous (ORF1ab-Phe924Phe) functional effects. The highest number of rcntSNVs found distinct and were uniquely attributed to the specific UVindex regions, proposing solar-UV radiation as one of the driving forces for SARS-CoV-2 differential genomic adaptation. The phylogenetic relationship indicated the high UVindex region populating SARS-CoV-2 as the recent progenitor of all included samples. Altogether, these results provide baseline genomic data that may need to be included for preparing UVindex region-specific future diagnostic and vaccine formulations.

Trend in seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 (IgG antibody) among tribal-dominated population: Findings from Jharkhand, India

Background & objectives

Serosurvey of COVID-19 provides a better estimation of people who have developed antibodies against the infection. Undertaking such a serosurvey in certain districts of India which are densely populated with prominent tribes can provide valuable information regarding seropravelance of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among such indigenous populations. In this context, two rounds of population-based, cross-sectional serosurveys for SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody were carried out in Jharkhand, a tribal-dominated State of India, to compare the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and to determine the associated demographic risk factors.

Methods

The surveys were carried out in June 2020 and February 2021 in ten districts of the State of Jharkhand. Blood samples were collected from the residents of the selected districts by random sampling and tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies using an automated chemiluminescence immunoassay platform. A total of 4761 and 3855 eligible participants were included in round 1 and round 2, respectively.

Results

The age- and gender-standardized seroprevalence for COVID-19 during round 1 was 0.54 per cent (0.36-0.80) that increased to 41.69 per cent (40.16-43.22) during round 2 with a gap of eight months in between. The seropositivity among male and female participants was 0.73 and 0.45 per cent, respectively, during the first round and 51.35 and 33.70 per cent, respectively, during the second round. During the first round, 17.37 per cent of the participants were tribal with seropositivity of 0.24 per cent (0.02-0.87), and during the second round, 21.14 per cent were tribal with seropositivity of 39.14 per cent (35.77-42.59). Compared to tribal group, non-tribal participants had an adjusted odds of 1.24 (95% confidence interval=1.04-1.48) for SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity.

Interpretation & conclusions

COVID-19 seroprevalence was found to be low during the first round (0.54%) of the survey, possibly due to the travel restrictions during lockdown better adherence to social distancing and wearing of face masks among the people. Understanding the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the susceptibility to infection at the individual as well as community level will inform decision and help policy makers to design and implement effective public health strategies to mitigate the pandemic in this State.

Serology as a Tool to Assess Infectious Disease Landscapes and Guide Public Health Policy

Understanding the local burden and epidemiology of infectious diseases is crucial to guide public health policy and prioritize interventions. Typically, infectious disease surveillance relies on capturing clinical cases within a healthcare system, classifying cases by etiology and enumerating cases over a period of time. Disease burden is often then extrapolated to the general population. Serology (i.e., examining serum for the presence of pathogen-specific antibodies) has long been used to inform about individuals past exposure and immunity to specific pathogens. However, it has been underutilized as a tool to evaluate the infectious disease burden landscape at the population level and guide public health decisions. In this review, we outline how serology provides a powerful tool to complement case-based surveillance for determining disease burden and epidemiology of infectious diseases, highlighting its benefits and limitations. We describe the current serology-based technologies and illustrate their use with examples from both the pre- and post- COVID-19-pandemic context. In particular, we review the challenges to and opportunities in implementing serological surveillance in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), which bear the brunt of the global infectious disease burden. Finally, we discuss the relevance of serology data for public health decision-making and describe scenarios in which this data could be used, either independently or in conjunction with case-based surveillance. We conclude that public health systems would greatly benefit from the inclusion of serology to supplement and strengthen existing case-based infectious disease surveillance strategies.

Demographic and clinical characteristics associated with variations in antibody response to BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination among healthcare workers at an academic medical centre: a longitudinal cohort analysis

OBJECTIVES

We sought to understand the demographic and clinical factors associated with variations in longitudinal antibody response following completion of two-dose regiment of BNT162b2 vaccination.

DESIGN

This study is a 10-month longitudinal cohort study of healthcare workers and serially measured anti-spike protein IgG (IgG-S) antibody levels using mixed linear models to examine their associations with participant characteristics.

SETTING

A large, multisite academic medical centre in Southern California, USA.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 843 healthcare workers met inclusion criteria including completion of an initial two-dose course of BNT162b2 vaccination, complete clinical history and at least two blood samples for analysis. Patients had an average age of 45±13 years, were 70% female and 7% with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection.

RESULTS

Vaccine-induced IgG-S levels remained in the positive range for 99.6% of individuals up to 10 months after initial two-dose vaccination. Prior SARS-CoV-2 infection was the primary correlate of sustained higher postvaccination IgG-S levels (partial R2=0.133), with a 1.74±0.11 SD higher IgG-S response (p<0.001). Female sex (beta 0.27±0.06, p<0.001), younger age (0.01±0.00, p<0.001) and absence of hypertension (0.17±0.08, p=0.003) were also associated with persistently higher IgG-S responses. Notably, prior SARS-CoV-2 infection augmented the associations of sex (-0.42 for male sex, p=0.08) and modified the associations of hypertension (1.17, p=0.001), such that infection-naïve individuals with hypertension had persistently lower IgG-S levels whereas prior infected individuals with hypertension exhibited higher IgG-S levels that remained augmented over time.

CONCLUSIONS

While the IgG-S antibody response remains in the positive range for up to 10 months following initial mRNA vaccination in most adults, determinants of sustained higher antibody levels include prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, female sex, younger age and absence of hypertension. Certain determinants of the longitudinal antibody response appear significantly modified by prior infection status. These findings offer insights regarding factors that may influence the 'hybrid' immunity conferred by natural infection combined with vaccination.

Antibody Profiling in COVID-19 Patients with Different Severities by Using Spike Variant Protein Microarrays

The disease progression of COVID-19 varies from mild to severe, even death. However, the link between COVID-19 severities and humoral immune specificities is not clear. Here, we developed a multiplexed spike variant protein microarray (SVPM) and utilized it for quantifying neutralizing activity, drug screening, and profiling humoral immunity. First, we demonstrated the competition between antispike antibody and ACE2 on SVPM for measuring the neutralizing activity against multiple spike variants. Next, we collected the serums from healthy subjects and COVID-19 patients with different severities and profile the neutralizing activity as well as antibody isotypes. We identified the inhibition of ACE2 binding was stronger against multiple variants in severe compared to mild/moderate or critical patients. Moreover, the serum IgG against nonstructural protein 3 was elevated in severe but not in mild/moderate and critical cases. Finally, we evaluated two ACE2 inhibitors, Ramipril and Perindopril, and found the dose-dependent inhibition of ACE2 binding to all the spike variants except for B.1.617.3. Together, the SVPM and the assay procedures provide a tool for profiling neutralizing antibodies, antibody isotypes, and reagent specificities.

High seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among Ethiopian healthcare workers

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 pandemic has a devastating impact on the economies and health care system of sub-Saharan Africa. Healthcare workers (HWs), the main actors of the health system, are at higher risk because of their occupation. Serology-based estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection among HWs represent a measure of HWs' exposure to the virus and could be used as a guide to the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the community and valuable in combating COVID-19. This information is currently lacking in Ethiopia and other African countries. This study aimed to develop an in-house antibody testing assay, assess the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among Ethiopian high-risk frontline HWs.

METHODS

We developed and validated an in-house Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) for specific detection of anti-SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain immunoglobin G (IgG) antibodies. We then used this assay to assess the seroprevalence among HWs in five public hospitals located in different geographic regions of Ethiopia. From consenting HWs, blood samples were collected between December 2020 and February 2021, the period between the two peaks of COVID-19 in Ethiopia. Socio-demographic and clinical data were collected using questionnaire-based interviews. Descriptive statistics and bivariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to determine the overall and post-stratified seroprevalence and the association between seropositivity and potential risk factors.

RESULTS

Our successfully developed in-house assay sensitivity was 100% in serum samples collected 2- weeks after the first onset of symptoms whereas its specificity in pre-COVID-19 pandemic sera was 97.7%. Using this assay, we analyzed a total of 1997 sera collected from HWs. Of 1997 HWs who provided a blood sample, and demographic and clinical data, 51.7% were females, 74.0% had no symptoms compatible with COVID-19, and 29.0% had a history of contact with suspected or confirmed patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. The overall seroprevalence was 39.6%. The lowest (24.5%) and the highest (48.0%) seroprevalence rates were found in Hiwot Fana Specialized Hospital in Harar and ALERT Hospital in Addis Ababa, respectively. Of the 821 seropositive HWs, 224(27.3%) of them had a history of symptoms consistent with COVID-19 while 436 (> 53%) of them had no contact with COVID-19 cases as well as no history of COVID-19 like symptoms. A history of close contact with suspected/confirmed COVID-19 cases is associated with seropositivity (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.8; p = 0.015).

CONCLUSION

High SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence levels were observed in the five Ethiopian hospitals. These findings highlight the significant burden of asymptomatic infection in Ethiopia and may reflect the scale of transmission in the general population.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Neutralizing Antibodies among Blood Donors in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, August-November 2020

Relatively little is known about the seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) IgG antibodies and COVID-19-related behaviors in the general population in Vietnam, where the first case of COVID-19 was detected on January 22, 2020. We surveyed a group of 885 blood donors at community blood donation sessions in Ho Chi Minh City from August 27 to November 7, 2020. Blood was collected to test for SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies using the plaque reduction neutralization test. We adjusted the seroprevalence by weight for ages 18 to 59 years old obtained from the 2019 population census. The weighted seroprevalence estimate for SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing IgG antibodies was 0.20% (95% CI, 0.05-0.81). Reports of usually or always using a mask in public places were observed at high levels of 28.6% and 67.5%, respectively. The percentages of usually or always washing hands with soap or disinfecting with hand sanitizer after touching items in public places were 48.0% and 37.6%, respectively. Although our findings suggest undocumented exposure to the virus, the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies among blood donors was low in this city.

Seroprevalence of IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in India, March 2020 to August 2021: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

India experienced 2 waves of COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 and reported the second highest caseload globally. Seroepidemiologic studies were done to track the course of the pandemic. We systematically reviewed and synthesized the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the Indian population.

METHODS

We included studies reporting seroprevalence of IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 from March 1, 2020 to August 11, 2021 and excluded studies done only among patients with COVID-19 and vaccinated individuals. We searched published databases, preprint servers, and government documents using a combination of keywords and medical subheading (MeSH) terms of "Seroprevalence AND SARS-CoV-2 AND India". We assessed risk of bias using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale, the appraisal tool for cross-sectional studies (AXIS), the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) critical appraisal tool, and WHO's statement on the Reporting of Seroepidemiological Studies for SARS-CoV-2 (ROSES-S). We calculated pooled seroprevalence along with 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) during the first (March 2020 to February 2021) and second wave (March to August 2021). We also estimated seroprevalence by selected demographic characteristics.

RESULTS

We identified 3821 studies and included 53 studies with 905379 participants after excluding duplicates, screening of titles and abstracts and full-text screening. Of the 53, 20 studies were of good quality. Some of the reviewed studies did not report adequate information on study methods (sampling = 24% (13/53); laboratory = 83% [44/53]). Studies of 'poor' quality had more than one of the following issues: unjustified sample size, nonrepresentative sample, nonclassification of nonrespondents, results unadjusted for demographics and methods insufficiently explained to enable replication. Overall pooled seroprevalence was 20.7% in the first (95% CI = 16.1 to 25.3) and 69.2% (95% CI = 64.5 to 73.8) in the second wave. Seroprevalence did not differ by age in first wave, whereas in the second, it increased with age. Seroprevalence was slightly higher among women in the second wave. In both the waves, the estimate was higher in urban than in rural areas.

CONCLUSION

Seroprevalence increased by 3-fold between the 2 waves of the pandemic in India. Our review highlights the need for designing and reporting studies using standard protocols.

Seroprevalence, spatial distribution, and social determinants of SARS-CoV-2 in three urban centers of Chile

BACKGROUND

Seroprevalence studies provide an accurate measure of SARS-CoV-2 spread and the presence of asymptomatic cases. They also provide information on the uneven impact of the pandemic, pointing out vulnerable groups to prioritize which is particularly relevant in unequal societies. However, due to their high cost, they provide limited evidence of spatial spread of the pandemic specially in unequal societies. Our objective was to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Chile and model its spatial risk distribution.

METHODS

During Oct-Nov 2020, we conducted a population-based serosurvey in Santiago, Talca, and Coquimbo-La Serena (2493 individuals). We explored the individual association between positive results and socio-economic and health-related variables by logistic regression for complex surveys. Then, using an Empirical Bayesian Kriging model, we estimated the infection risk spatial distribution using individual and census information, and compared these results with official records.

RESULTS

Seroprevalence was 10.4% (95% CI 7.8-13.7%), ranging from 2% (Talca) to 11% (Santiago), almost three times the number officially reported. Approximately 36% of these were asymptomatic, reaching 82% below 15 years old. Seroprevalence was associated with the city of residence, previous COVID-19 diagnosis, contact with confirmed cases (especially at household), and foreign nationality. The spatial model accurately interpolated the distribution of disease risk within the cities finding significant differences in the predicted probabilities of SARS-CoV-2 infection by census zone (IQR 2.5-15.0%), related to population density and education.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results underscore the transmission heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 within and across three urban centers of Chile. Socio-economic factors and the outcomes of this seroprevalence study enable us to identify priority areas for intervention. Our methodological approach and results can help guide the design of interdisciplinary strategies for urban contexts, not only for SARS-CoV-2 but also for other communicable diseases.

COVID-19: Testing Landscape Post-Infection, -Vaccination, and Future Perspectives

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak a global pandemic. Although molecular testing remains the gold standard for COVID-19 diagnosis, serological testing enables the evaluation of the immune response to severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and vaccination, and can be used to assess community viral spread. This review summarizes and analyzes the current landscape of SARS-CoV-2 testing in the United States and includes guidance on both when and why it is important to use direct pathogen detection and/or serological testing. The usefulness of monitoring humoral and cellular immune responses in infected and vaccinated patients is also addressed. Finally, this review considers current challenges, future perspectives for SARS-CoV-2 testing, and how diagnostics are being adapted as the virus evolves.

Current challenges of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 seroprevalence studies among blood donors: A scoping review

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Blood donors are increasingly being recognized as an informative resource for surveillance. We aimed to review severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 seroprevalence studies conducted among blood donors to investigate methodological biases and provide guidance for future research.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a scoping review of peer-reviewed and preprint publications between January 2020 and January 2021. Two reviewers used standardized forms to extract seroprevalence estimates and data on methodology pertaining to population sampling, periodicity, assay characteristics, and antibody kinetics. National data on cumulative incidence and social distancing policies were extracted from publicly available sources and summarized.

RESULTS

Thirty-three studies representing 1,323,307 blood donations from 20 countries worldwide were included (sample sizes ranged from 22 to 953,926 donations). The majority of the studies (79%) reported seroprevalence rates <10% (ranging from 0% to 76% [after adjusting for waning antibodies]). Overall, less than 1 in 5 studies reported standardized seroprevalence rates to reflect the demographics of the general population. Stratification by age and sex were most common (64% of studies), followed by region (48%). A total of 52% of studies reported seroprevalence at a single time point. Overall, 27 unique assay combinations were identified, 55% of studies used a single assay and only 39% adjusted seroprevalence rates for imperfect test characteristics. Among the nationally representative studies, case detection was most underrepresented in Kenya (1:1264).

CONCLUSION

By the end of 2020, seroprevalence rates were far from reaching herd immunity. In addition to differences in community transmission and diverse public health policies, study designs and methodology were likely contributing factors to seroprevalence heterogeneity.

A seroprevalence study of Covid 19 antibody after 1st wave of the pandemic in South Andaman district, India

Background

The seroepidemiological studies are essential to analyze spread of Covid 19 infection in the remote islands of Andaman and Nicobar. Hence, the present study was conducted to estimate the seroprevalence of Covid 19 antibodies in the South Andaman district.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was performed in South Andaman District after 1st wave of the Covid 19 pandemic in the island. The participants of age 18 years and above were selected by multistage cluster sampling. The blood samples were tested for IgG Covid antibodies by Erba Lisa Elisa kit. The data was analyzed by descriptive analysis and Chi Square/Fisher Exact test.

Result

The seroprevalence of Covid 19 in the S. Andaman district was found to be 39.3%. The COVID 19 antibody positivity was significantly higher in urban population (44.09%) as compared to rural population (34.27%) and in females of 41–60 years age group (45.5%) as compared to females of other age groups. The antibody positivity was similar among the population of containment and buffer zone (p-value 0.684).

Conclusion

The seropositivity in the South Andaman district was higher due to the influx of tourists on the island. The rural people in South Andaman remained less affected by the pandemic as the rural areas were far flung and thinly populated. The antibody positivity was similar in residents of containment and buffer zone because there were more social contacts and movement of the people on the island due to their extensive family linkage.

TIPICO XI: report of the first series and podcast on infectious diseases and vaccines (aTIPICO)

TIPiCO is an annual expert meeting and workshop on infectious diseases and vaccination. The edition of 2020 changed its name and format to aTIPiCO, the first series and podcasts on infectious diseases and vaccines. A total of 13 prestigious experts from different countries participated in this edition launched on the 26 November 2020. The state of the art of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) and the responsible pathogen, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and the options to tackle the pandemic situation were discussed in light of the knowledge in November 2020. Despite COVID-19, the status of other infectious diseases, including influenza infections, respiratory syncytial virus disease, human papillomavirus infection, measles, pertussis, tuberculosis, meningococcal disease, and pneumococcal disease, were also addressed. The essential lessons that can be learned from these diseases and their vaccines to use in the COVID-19 pandemic were also commented with the experts.

Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence by Community Survey and Residual Specimens, Denver, Colorado, July-August 2020

OBJECTIVES

The number of SARS-CoV-2 infections is underestimated in surveillance data. Various approaches to assess the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 have different resource requirements and generalizability. We estimated the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Denver County, Colorado, via a cluster-sampled community survey.

METHODS

We estimated the overall seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 via a community seroprevalence survey in Denver County in July 2020, described patterns associated with seroprevalence, and compared results with cumulative COVID-19 incidence as reported to the health department during the same period. In addition, we compared seroprevalence as assessed with a temporally and geographically concordant convenience sample of residual clinical specimens from a commercial laboratory.

RESULTS

Based on 404 specimens collected through the community survey, 8.0% (95% CI, 3.9%-15.7%) of Denver County residents had antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, an infection rate of about 7 times that of the 1.1% cumulative reported COVID-19 incidence during this period. The estimated infection-to-reported case ratio was highest among children (34.7; 95% CI, 11.1-91.2) and males (10.8; 95% CI, 5.7-19.3). Seroprevalence was highest among males of Black race or Hispanic ethnicity and was associated with previous COVID-19-compatible illness, a previous positive SARS-CoV-2 test result, and close contact with someone who had confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Testing of 1598 residual clinical specimens yielded a seroprevalence of 6.8% (95% CI, 5.0%-9.2%); the difference between the 2 estimates was 1.2 percentage points (95% CI, -3.6 to 12.2 percentage points).

CONCLUSIONS

Testing residual clinical specimens provided a similar seroprevalence estimate yet yielded limited insight into the local epidemiology of COVID-19 and might be less representative of the source population than a cluster-sampled community survey. Awareness of the limitations of various sampling strategies is necessary when interpreting findings from seroprevalence assessments.

Second Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Delhi, India: High Seroprevalence Not a Deterrent?

Background We report the findings of a large follow-up, community-based, cross-sectional serosurvey and correlate it with the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) test-positivity rate and the caseload observed between the peaks of the first and the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Delhi, India. Methodology Individuals aged five and above were recruited from 274 wards of the state (population approximately 19.6 million) from January 11 to January 22, 2021. A total of 100 participants each were included from all wards for a net sample size of approximately 28,000. A multistage sampling technique was employed to select participants for the household serosurvey. Anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) immunoglobulin (IgG) antibodies were detected by using the VITROS® (Ortho Clinical Diagnostics, Raritan, NJ, USA) assay (90% sensitivity, 100% specificity). Results Antibody positivity was observed in 14,298 (50.76%) of 28,169 samples. The age, sex, and district population-weighted seroprevalence of the SARS-CoV-2 IgG was 50.52% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 49.94-51.10), and after adjustment for assay characteristics, it was 56.13% (95% CI = 55.49-56.77). On adjusted analysis, participants aged ≥50 years, of female gender, housewives, having ever lived in containment zones, urban slum dwellers, and diabetes or hypertensive patients had significantly higher odds of SARS-CoV-2 antibody positivity. The peak infection rate and the test-positivity rate since October 2020 were initially observed in mid-November 2020, with a subsequent steep declining trend, followed by a period of persistently low case burden lasting until the first week of March 2021. This was followed by a steady increase followed by an exponential surge in infections from April 2021 onward culminating in the second wave of the pandemic. Conclusions The presence of infection-induced immunity from SARS-CoV-2 even in more than one in two people can be ineffective in protecting the population. Despite such high seroprevalence, population susceptibility to COVID-19 can be accentuated by variants of concern having the ability for rapid transmission and depletion of antibody levels with the threat of recurrent infections, signifying the need for mass vaccination.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG antibodies in Kashmir, India, 7 months after the first reported local COVID-19 case: results of a population-based seroprevalence survey from October to November 2020

OBJECTIVES

We designed a population-based survey in Kashmir to estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG antibodies in the general population aged 18 years and above.

SETTING

The survey was conducted among 110 villages and urban wards across 10 districts in Kashmir from 17 October 2020 to 4 November 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals aged 18 years and above were eligible to be included in the survey. Serum samples were tested for the presence of SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG antibodies using the Abbott SARS-CoV-2 IgG assay.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

We labelled assay results equal to or above the cut-off index value of 1.4 as positive for SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG antibodies. Seroprevalence estimates were adjusted for the sampling design and assay characteristics.

RESULTS

Out of 6397 eligible individuals enumerated, 6315 (98.7%) agreed to participate. The final analysis was done on 6230 participants. Seroprevalence adjusted for the sampling design and assay characteristics was 36.7% (95% CI 34.3% to 39.2%). Seroprevalence was higher among the older population. Among seropositive individuals, 10.2% (247/2415) reported a history of COVID-19-like symptoms. Out of 474 symptomatic individuals, 233 (49.2%) reported having been tested. We estimated an infection fatality rate of 0.034%.

CONCLUSIONS

During the first 7 months of the COVID-19 epidemic in Kashmir Valley, approximately 37% of individuals were infected. The reported number of COVID-19 cases was only a small fraction of the estimated number of infections. A more efficient surveillance system with strengthened reporting of COVID-19 cases and deaths is warranted.

SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence Structure of the Russian Population during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, which came to Russia in March 2020, is accompanied by morbidity level changes and can be tracked using serological monitoring of a representative population sample from Federal Districts (FDs) and individual regions. In a longitudinal cohort study conducted in 26 model regions of Russia, distributed across all FDs, we investigated the distribution and cumulative proportions of individuals with antibodies (Abs) to the SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antigen (Ag), in the period from June to December 2020, using a three-phase monitoring process. In addition, during the formation of the cohort of volunteers, the number of seropositive convalescents, persons who had contact with patients or COVID-19 convalescents, and the prevalence of asymptomatic forms of infection among seropositive volunteers were determined. According to a uniform methodology, 3 mL of blood was taken from the examined individuals, and plasma was separated, from which the presence of Abs to nucleocapsid Ag was determined on a Thermo Scientific Multiascan FC device using the "ELISA anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG" reagent set (prod. Scientific Center for Applied Microbiology and Biotechnology), in accordance with the developer's instructions. Volunteers (74,158) were surveyed and divided into seven age groups (1-17, 18-29, 30-39, 40-49, 59-59, 60-69, and 70+ years old), among whom 14,275 were identified as having antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. The average percent seropositive in Russia was 17.8% (IQR: 8.8-23.2). The largest proportion was found among children under 17 years old (21.6% (IQR: 13.1-31.7). In the remaining groups, seroprevalence ranged from 15.6% (IQR: 8-21.1) to 18.0% (IQR: 13.4-22.6). During monitoring, three (immune) response groups were found: (A) groups with a continuous increase in the proportion of seropositive; (B) those with a slow rate of increase in seroprevalence; and (C) those with a two-phase curve, wherein the initial increase was replaced by a decrease in the percentage of seropositive individuals. A significant correlation was revealed between the number of COVID-19 convalescents and contact persons, and between the number of contacts and healthy seropositive volunteers. Among the seropositive volunteers, more than 93.6% (IQR: 87.1-94.9) were asymptomatic. The results show that the COVID-19 pandemic is accompanied by an increase in seroprevalence, which may be important for the formation of herd immunity.

SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence Structure of the Russian Population during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, which came to Russia in March 2020, is accompanied by morbidity level changes and can be tracked using serological monitoring of a representative population sample from Federal Districts (FDs) and individual regions. In a longitudinal cohort study conducted in 26 model regions of Russia, distributed across all FDs, we investigated the distribution and cumulative proportions of individuals with antibodies (Abs) to the SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antigen (Ag), in the period from June to December 2020, using a three-phase monitoring process. In addition, during the formation of the cohort of volunteers, the number of seropositive convalescents, persons who had contact with patients or COVID-19 convalescents, and the prevalence of asymptomatic forms of infection among seropositive volunteers were determined. According to a uniform methodology, 3 mL of blood was taken from the examined individuals, and plasma was separated, from which the presence of Abs to nucleocapsid Ag was determined on a Thermo Scientific Multiascan FC device using the “ELISA anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG” reagent set (prod. Scientific Center for Applied Microbiology and Biotechnology), in accordance with the developer’s instructions. Volunteers (74,158) were surveyed and divided into seven age groups (1–17, 18–29, 30–39, 40–49, 59–59, 60–69, and 70+ years old), among whom 14,275 were identified as having antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. The average percent seropositive in Russia was 17.8% (IQR: 8.8–23.2). The largest proportion was found among children under 17 years old (21.6% (IQR: 13.1–31.7). In the remaining groups, seroprevalence ranged from 15.6% (IQR: 8–21.1) to 18.0% (IQR: 13.4–22.6). During monitoring, three (immune) response groups were found: (A) groups with a continuous increase in the proportion of seropositive; (B) those with a slow rate of increase in seroprevalence; and (C) those with a two-phase curve, wherein the initial increase was replaced by a decrease in the percentage of seropositive individuals. A significant correlation was revealed between the number of COVID-19 convalescents and contact persons, and between the number of contacts and healthy seropositive volunteers. Among the seropositive volunteers, more than 93.6% (IQR: 87.1–94.9) were asymptomatic. The results show that the COVID-19 pandemic is accompanied by an increase in seroprevalence, which may be important for the formation of herd immunity.

The seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in Delhi, India: a repeated population-based seroepidemiological study

BACKGROUND

Three rounds of a repeated cross-sectional serosurvey to estimate the change in seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) were conducted from August to October 2020 in the state of Delhi, India, in the general population ≥5 y of age.

METHODS

The selection of participants was through a multistage sampling design from all 11 districts and 280 wards of the city-state, with multistage allocation proportional to population size. The blood samples were screened using immunoglobulin G (IgG) enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kits.

RESULTS

We observed a total of 4267 (N=150 46), 4311 (N=17 409) and 3829 (N=15 015) positive tests indicative of the presence of IgG antibody to SARS-CoV-2 during the August, September and October 2020 serosurvey rounds, respectively. The adjusted seroprevalence declined from 28.39% (95% confidence interval [CI] 27.65 to 29.14) in August to 24.08% (95% CI 23.43 to 24.74) in September and 24.71% (95% CI 24.01 to 25.42) in October. On adjusted analysis, participants with lower per capita income, living in slums or overcrowded households and those with diabetes comorbidity had significantly higher statistical odds of having antibody positivity (p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly one in four residents in Delhi, India ≥5 y of age had the SARS-CoV-2 infection during August-October 2020.

SARS-CoV-2 Cumulative Incidence and Period Seroprevalence: Results From a Statewide Population-Based Serosurvey in California

Background

California has reported the largest number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases of any US state, with more than 3.5 million confirmed as of March 2021. However, the full breadth of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in California is unknown as reported cases only represent a fraction of all infections.

Methods

We conducted a population-based serosurvey, utilizing mailed, home-based SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing along with a demographic and behavioral survey. We weighted data from a random sample to represent the adult California population and estimated period seroprevalence overall and by participant characteristics. Seroprevalence estimates were adjusted for waning antibodies to produce statewide estimates of cumulative incidence, the infection fatality ratio (IFR), and the reported fraction.

Results

California's SARS-CoV-2 weighted seroprevalence during August-December 2020 was 4.6% (95% CI, 2.8%-7.4%). Estimated cumulative incidence as of November 2, 2020, was 8.7% (95% CrI, 6.4%-11.5%), indicating that 2 660 441 adults (95% CrI, 1 959 218-3 532 380) had been infected. The estimated IFR was 0.8% (95% CrI, 0.6%-1.0%), and the estimated percentage of infections reported to the California Department of Public Health was 31%. Disparately high risk for infection was observed among persons of Hispanic/Latinx ethnicity and people with no health insurance and who reported working outside the home.

Conclusions

We present the first statewide SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence estimate among adults in California. As of November 2020, ~1 in 3 SARS-CoV-2 infections in California adults had been identified by public health surveillance. When accounting for unreported SARS-CoV-2 infections, disparities by race/ethnicity seen in case-based surveillance persist.

High Seroprevalence of Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies Among Ethiopian Healthcare Workers

Background COVID-19 pandemic has a devastating impact on the economies and health care system of sub-Saharan Africa. Healthcare workers (HWs), the main actors of the health system, are at higher-risk because of their occupation. Serology-based estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection among HWs represent a measure of HWs’ exposure to the virus and a guide to the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the community. This information is currently lacking in Ethiopia and other African countries. This study aimed to develop an in-house antibody testing assay, assess the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among Ethiopian high-risk frontline HWs. Methods A cross-sectional seroprevalence study was conducted among HWs in five public hospitals located in different geographic regions of Ethiopia. Socio-demographic and clinical data were collected using questionnaire-based interviews. From consenting HWs, blood samples were collected between December 2020 and February 2021, the period between the two peaks of COVID-19 in Ethiopia. The collected sera were tested using an in-house immunoglobin G (IgG) enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies on sera collected from HWs. Results Of 1,997 HWs who provided a blood sample, demographic and clinical data, 50.5% were female, 74.0% had no symptoms compatible with COVID-19, and 29.0% had history of contact with suspected or confirmed patient with SARS-CoV-2 infection. The overall seroprevalence was 39.6%. The lowest (24.5%) and the highest (48.0%) seroprevalence rates were found in Hiwot Fana Specialized Hospital in Harar and ALERT Hospital in Addis Ababa, respectively. Of the 821 seropositive HWs, 224(27.3%) had history of symptoms consistent with COVID-19. A history of close contact with suspected/confirmed COVID-19 cases was strongly associated with seropositivity (Adjusted odds Ratio (AOR) =1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.8; p=0.015). Conclusion High SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence levels were observed in the five Ethiopian hospitals. These findings highlight the significant burden of asymptomatic infection in Ethiopia, and may reflect the scale of transmission in the general population.

Thinking clearly about social aspects of infectious disease transmission

Social and cultural forces shape almost every aspect of infectious disease transmission in human populations, as well as our ability to measure, understand, and respond to epidemics. For directly transmitted infections, pathogen transmission relies on human-to-human contact, with kinship, household, and societal structures shaping contact patterns that in turn determine epidemic dynamics. Social, economic, and cultural forces also shape patterns of exposure, health-seeking behaviour, infection outcomes, the likelihood of diagnosis and reporting of cases, and the uptake of interventions. Although these social aspects of epidemiology are hard to quantify and have limited the generalizability of modelling frameworks in a policy context, new sources of data on relevant aspects of human behaviour are increasingly available. Researchers have begun to embrace data from mobile devices and other technologies as useful proxies for behavioural drivers of disease transmission, but there is much work to be done to measure and validate these approaches, particularly for policy-making. Here we discuss how integrating local knowledge in the design of model frameworks and the interpretation of new data streams offers the possibility of policy-relevant models for public health decision-making as well as the development of robust, generalizable theories about human behaviour in relation to infectious diseases.

Global seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Many studies report the seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies. We aimed to synthesize seroprevalence data to better estimate the level and distribution of SARS-CoV-2 infection, identify high-risk groups, and inform public health decision making.

METHODS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched publication databases, preprint servers, and grey literature sources for seroepidemiological study reports, from January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020. We included studies that reported a sample size, study date, location, and seroprevalence estimate. We corrected estimates for imperfect test accuracy with Bayesian measurement error models, conducted meta-analysis to identify demographic differences in the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, and meta-regression to identify study-level factors associated with seroprevalence. We compared region-specific seroprevalence data to confirmed cumulative incidence. PROSPERO: CRD42020183634.

RESULTS

We identified 968 seroprevalence studies including 9.3 million participants in 74 countries. There were 472 studies (49%) at low or moderate risk of bias. Seroprevalence was low in the general population (median 4.5%, IQR 2.4-8.4%); however, it varied widely in specific populations from low (0.6% perinatal) to high (59% persons in assisted living and long-term care facilities). Median seroprevalence also varied by Global Burden of Disease region, from 0.6% in Southeast Asia, East Asia and Oceania to 19.5% in Sub-Saharan Africa (p<0.001). National studies had lower seroprevalence estimates than regional and local studies (p<0.001). Compared to Caucasian persons, Black persons (prevalence ratio [RR] 3.37, 95% CI 2.64-4.29), Asian persons (RR 2.47, 95% CI 1.96-3.11), Indigenous persons (RR 5.47, 95% CI 1.01-32.6), and multi-racial persons (RR 1.89, 95% CI 1.60-2.24) were more likely to be seropositive. Seroprevalence was higher among people ages 18-64 compared to 65 and over (RR 1.27, 95% CI 1.11-1.45). Health care workers in contact with infected persons had a 2.10 times (95% CI 1.28-3.44) higher risk compared to health care workers without known contact. There was no difference in seroprevalence between sex groups. Seroprevalence estimates from national studies were a median 18.1 times (IQR 5.9-38.7) higher than the corresponding SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence, but there was large variation between Global Burden of Disease regions from 6.7 in South Asia to 602.5 in Sub-Saharan Africa. Notable methodological limitations of serosurveys included absent reporting of test information, no statistical correction for demographics or test sensitivity and specificity, use of non-probability sampling and use of non-representative sample frames.

DISCUSSION

Most of the population remains susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Public health measures must be improved to protect disproportionately affected groups, including racial and ethnic minorities, until vaccine-derived herd immunity is achieved. Improvements in serosurvey design and reporting are needed for ongoing monitoring of infection prevalence and the pandemic response.

Toward Smart Diagnostics in a Pandemic Scenario: COVID-19

The incredible spread rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has shocked the world. More than ever before, this dramatic scenario proved the significance of diagnostics as a cornerstone to make life-saving decisions. In this context, novel diagnostics that generates smart data leading to superior strategies for treatment, control, surveillance, prediction, prevention, and management of pandemic diseases is vital. Herein, we discuss the characteristics that should be met by COVID-19 diagnostics to become smart diagnostics enabled by industry 4.0 especially Internet of Things (IoT). The challenges ahead and our recommendations for moving faster from pure diagnostics toward smart diagnostics of COVID-19 and other possible epidemic/pandemic diseases are also outlined. An IoT-Fog-Cloud model based on smartphones as IoT gateways for smart diagnostics with unified strategies for data collection/transmission/interpretation is also proposed to integrate new digital technologies into a single platform for smarter decisions. Last but not least, we believe that "smart diagnostics" is a perspective that should be realized sooner before we encounter a pandemic far worse than the present one.

Citywide serosurveillance of the initial SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in San Francisco using electronic health records

Serosurveillance provides a unique opportunity to quantify the proportion of the population that has been exposed to pathogens. Here, we developed and piloted Serosurveillance for Continuous, ActionabLe Epidemiologic Intelligence of Transmission (SCALE-IT), a platform through which we systematically tested remnant samples from routine blood draws in two major hospital networks in San Francisco for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies during the early months of the pandemic. Importantly, SCALE-IT allows for algorithmic sample selection and rich data on covariates by leveraging electronic health record data. We estimated overall seroprevalence at 4.2%, corresponding to a case ascertainment rate of only 4.9%, and identified important heterogeneities by neighborhood, homelessness status, and race/ethnicity. Neighborhood seroprevalence estimates from SCALE-IT were comparable to local community-based surveys, while providing results encompassing the entire city that have been previously unavailable. Leveraging this hybrid serosurveillance approach has strong potential for application beyond this local context and for diseases other than SARS-CoV-2.

Modeling the impact of racial and ethnic disparities on COVID-19 epidemic dynamics

Background

The impact of variable infection risk by race and ethnicity on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 spread is largely unknown.

Methods

Here, we fit structured compartmental models to seroprevalence data from New York State and analyze how herd immunity thresholds (HITs), final sizes, and epidemic risk change across groups.

Results

A simple model where interactions occur proportionally to contact rates reduced the HIT, but more realistic models of preferential mixing within groups increased the threshold toward the value observed in homogeneous populations. Across all models, the burden of infection fell disproportionately on minority populations: in a model fit to Long Island serosurvey and census data, 81% of Hispanics or Latinos were infected when the HIT was reached compared to 34% of non-Hispanic whites.

Conclusions

Our findings, which are meant to be illustrative and not best estimates, demonstrate how racial and ethnic disparities can impact epidemic trajectories and result in unequal distributions of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Funding

K.C.M. was supported by National Science Foundation GRFP grant DGE1745303. Y.H.G. and M.L. were funded by the Morris-Singer Foundation. M.L. was supported by SeroNet cooperative agreement U01 CA261277.

Demographic and clinical correlates of acute and convalescent SARS-CoV-2 infection among patients of a U.S. emergency department

Background

Emergency Departments (EDs) have served as critical surveillance sites for infectious diseases. We sought to determine the prevalence and temporal trends of acute (by PCR) and convalescent (by antibody [Ab]) SARS-CoV-2 infection during the earliest phase of the pandemic among patients in an urban ED in Baltimore City.

Methods

We tested remnant blood samples from 3255 unique ED patients, collected between March 16th and May 31st 2020 for SARS-CoV-2 Ab. PCR for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection from nasopharyngeal swabs was obtained on any patients based on clinical suspicion. Hospital records were abstracted and factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection were assessed.

Results

Of 3255 ED patients, 8.2% (95%CI: 7.3%, 9.2%) individuals had evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection; 155 PCR+, 78 Ab+, and 35 who were both PCR+ and Ab+. Prevalence of disease increased throughout the study period, ranging from 3.2% (95%CI: 1.8%, 5.2%) PCR+ and 0.6% (95%CI: 0.1%, 1.8%) Ab+ in March, to 6.2% (95%CI: 5.1%, 7.4%) PCR+ and 4.2% (95%CI: 3.3%, 5.3%) Ab+ in May. The highest SARS-CoV-2 prevalence was found in Hispanic individuals who made up 8.4% (95%CI: 7.4%, 9.4%) of individuals screened, but 35% (95%CI: 29%, 41%) of infections (PCR and/or Ab+). Demographic and clinical factors independently associated with acute infection included Hispanic ethnicity, loss of smell or taste, subjective fever, cough, muscle ache and fever. Factors independently associated with convalescent infection were Hispanic ethnicity and low oxygen saturation.

Conclusions

The burden of COVID-19 in Baltimore City increased dramatically over the 11-week study period and was disproportionately higher among Hispanic individuals. ED-based surveillance methods are important for identifying both acute and convalescent SARS-CoV-2 infections and provides important information regarding demographic and clinical correlates of disease in the local community.

Understanding the Challenges and Uncertainties of Seroprevalence Studies for SARS-CoV-2

SARS-CoV-2 continues to widely circulate in populations globally. Underdetection is acknowledged and is problematic when attempting to capture the true prevalence. Seroprevalence studies, where blood samples from a population sample are tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies that react to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, are a common method for estimating the proportion of people previously infected with the virus in a given population. However, obtaining reliable estimates from seroprevalence studies is challenging for a number of reasons, and the uncertainty in the results is often overlooked by scientists, policy makers, and the media. This paper reviews the methodological issues that arise in designing these studies, and the main sources of uncertainty that affect the results. We discuss the choice of study population, recruitment of subjects, uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of antibody tests, and the relationship between antibodies and infection over time. Understanding these issues can help the reader to interpret and critically evaluate the results of seroprevalence studies.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Serosurveillance in a Patient Population Reveals Differences in Virus Exposure and Antibody-Mediated Immunity According to Host Demography and Healthcare Setting

Identifying drivers of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) exposure and quantifying population immunity is crucial to prepare for future epidemics. We performed a serial cross-sectional serosurvey throughout the first pandemic wave among patients from the largest health board in Scotland. Screening of 7480 patient serum samples showed a weekly seroprevalence ranging from 0.10% to 8.23% in primary and 0.21% to 17.44% in secondary care, respectively. Neutralization assays showed that highly neutralizing antibodies developed in about half of individuals who tested positive with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, mainly among secondary care patients. We estimated the individual probability of SARS-CoV-2 exposure and quantified associated risk factors. We show that secondary care patients, male patients, and 45–64-year-olds exhibit a higher probability of being seropositive. The identification of risk factors and the differences in virus neutralization activity between patient populations provided insights into the patterns of virus exposure during the first pandemic wave and shed light on what to expect in future waves.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence study in Lambayeque, Peru. June-July 2020

Background

Estimating the cumulative prevalence of SARS-COV-2 will help to understand the epidemic, contagion, and immunity to COVID-19 in vulnerable populations. The objective is to determine the extent of infection in the general population and the cumulative incidence by age group.

Methods

It was carried out with a longitudinal analytical study, in the population of the Lambayeque region, located in the north of Peru. The selection was carried out in multistages (districts, area, household, and finally choosing the interviewee within the house). Seroprevalence was estimated as a positive result of the rapid test whether it was positive IgM or positive IgG. An adjustment was made for the sampling weights used.

Results

The seroprevalence found in the region was 29.5%. Young people between 21 and 50 years old presented the highest seroprevalence frequencies. A total of 25.4% were asymptomatic. The most frequent complaint was dysgeusia and dysosmia (85.3% and 83.6%). Dysosmia (PR = 1.69), chest pain (PR = 1.49), back pain (PR = 1.45), cough (PR = 1.44), fever (PR = 1.41), general malaise (PR = 1.27) were associated factors with the higher the frequency of seropositivity for SARS-CoV-2. Reporting of complete isolation at home decreased the frequency of positivity (PR = 0.80), however, reporting having ARI contact (PR = 1.60), having contact with a confirmed case (PR = 1.51), and going to market (PR = 1.26) increased the frequency of positivity for SARS-CoV-2.

Conclusion

These results suggest that Lambayeque is the region with the highest seroprevalence in the world, well above Spain, the United States and similar to a study in India.

SARS-CoV-2 Viral and Serological Testing When College Campuses Reopen: Some Practical Considerations

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic prompted universities across the United States to close campuses in Spring 2020. Universities are deliberating whether, when, and how they should resume in-person instruction in Fall 2020. In this essay, we discuss some practical considerations for the use of 2 potentially useful control strategies based on testing: (1) severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing followed by case-patient isolation and quarantine of close contacts, and (2) serological testing followed by an "immune shield" approach, that is, low social distancing requirements for seropositive persons. The isolation of case-patients and quarantine of close contacts may be especially challenging, and perhaps prohibitively difficult, on many university campuses. The "immune shield" strategy might be hobbled by a low positive predictive value of the tests used in populations with low seroprevalence. Both strategies carry logistical, ethical, and financial implications. The main nonpharmaceutical interventions will remain methods based on social distancing (eg, capping class size) and personal protective behaviors (eg, universal facemask wearing in public space) until vaccines become available, or unless the issues discussed herein can be resolved in such a way that using mass testing as main control strategies becomes viable.

SARS-CoV-2 population-based seroprevalence studies in Europe: a scoping review

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to review SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies conducted in Europe to understand how they may be used to inform ongoing control strategies for COVID-19.

DESIGN

Scoping review of peer-reviewed publications and manuscripts on preprint servers from January 2020 to 15 September 2020.

PRIMARY MEASURE

Seroprevalence estimate (and lower and upper CIs). For studies conducted across a country or territory, we used the seroprevalence estimate and the upper and lower CIs and compared them to the total number of reported infections to calculate the ratio of reported to expected infections.

RESULTS

We identified 23 population-based seroprevalence studies conducted in Europe. Among 12 general population studies, seroprevalence ranged from 0.42% among residual clinical samples in Greece to 13.6% in an area of high transmission in Gangelt, Germany. Of the eight studies in blood donors, seroprevalence ranged from 0.91% in North-Western Germany to 23.3% in a high-transmission area in Lombardy region, Italy. In three studies which recruited individuals through employment, seroprevalence ranged from 0.5% among factory workers in Frankfurt, Germany, to 10.2% among university employees in Milan, Italy. In comparison to nationally reported cases, the extent of infection, as derived from these seroprevalence estimates, is manyfold higher and largely heterogeneous.

CONCLUSION

Exposure to the virus in Europe has not reached a level of infection that would prevent further circulation of the virus. Effective vaccine candidates are urgently required to deliver the level of immunity in the population.

Seroprevalence and humoral immune durability of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Wuhan, China: a longitudinal, population-level, cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Wuhan was the epicentre of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. We aimed to determine the seroprevalence and kinetics of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at population level in Wuhan to inform the development of vaccination strategies.

METHODS

In this longitudinal cross-sectional study, we used a multistage, population-stratified, cluster random sampling method to systematically select 100 communities from the 13 districts of Wuhan. Households were systematically selected from each community and all family members were invited to community health-care centres to participate. Eligible individuals were those who had lived in Wuhan for at least 14 days since Dec 1, 2019. All eligible participants who consented to participate completed a standardised electronic questionnaire of demographic and clinical questions and self-reported any symptoms associated with COVID-19 or previous diagnosis of COVID-19. A venous blood sample was taken for immunological testing on April 14-15, 2020. Blood samples were tested for the presence of pan-immunoglobulins, IgM, IgA, and IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein and neutralising antibodies were assessed. We did two successive follow-ups between June 11 and June 13, and between Oct 9 and Dec 5, 2020, at which blood samples were taken.

FINDINGS

Of 4600 households randomly selected, 3599 families (78·2%) with 9702 individuals attended the baseline visit. 9542 individuals from 3556 families had sufficient samples for analyses. 532 (5·6%) of 9542 participants were positive for pan-immunoglobulins against SARS-CoV-2, with a baseline adjusted seroprevalence of 6·92% (95% CI 6·41-7·43) in the population. 437 (82·1%) of 532 participants who were positive for pan-immunoglobulins were asymptomatic. 69 (13·0%) of 532 individuals were positive for IgM antibodies, 84 (15·8%) were positive for IgA antibodies, 532 (100%) were positive for IgG antibodies, and 212 (39·8%) were positive for neutralising antibodies at baseline. The proportion of individuals who were positive for pan-immunoglobulins who had neutralising antibodies in April remained stable for the two follow-up visits (162 [44·6%] of 363 in June, 2020, and 187 [41·2%] of 454 in October-December, 2020). On the basis of data from 335 individuals who attended all three follow-up visits and who were positive for pan-immunoglobulins, neutralising antibody levels did not significantly decrease over the study period (median 1/5·6 [IQR 1/2·0 to 1/14·0] at baseline vs 1/5·6 [1/4·0 to 1/11·2] at first follow-up [p=1·0] and 1/6·3 [1/2·0 to 1/12·6] at second follow-up [p=0·29]). However, neutralising antibody titres were lower in asymptomatic individuals than in confirmed cases and symptomatic individuals. Although titres of IgG decreased over time, the proportion of individuals who had IgG antibodies did not decrease substantially (from 30 [100%] of 30 at baseline to 26 [89·7%] of 29 at second follow-up among confirmed cases, 65 [100%] of 65 at baseline to 58 [92·1%] of 63 at second follow-up among symptomatic individuals, and 437 [100%] of 437 at baseline to 329 [90·9%] of 362 at second follow-up among asymptomatic individuals).

INTERPRETATION

6·92% of a cross-sectional sample of the population of Wuhan developed antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, with 39·8% of this population seroconverting to have neutralising antibodies. Our durability data on humoral responses indicate that mass vaccination is needed to effect herd protection to prevent the resurgence of the epidemic.

FUNDING

Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, National Natural Science Foundation, and Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology.

TRANSLATION

For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among blood donors after the first COVID-19 wave in Canada

BACKGROUND

Case detection underestimates the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic. Following the first COVID-19 wave, we estimated the seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) among blood donors across Canada.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

This serial cross-sectional study was conducted between May 9 and July 21, 2020 from blood donors donating at all Canadian Blood Services locations. We used the Abbott Architect assay to detect SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies from retention plasma. Seroprevalence was standardized to population-level demographics and assay characteristics were adjusted using the Rogan-Gladen equation. Results were stratified by region, age, ethnicity, ABO groups, and quantiles of material and social deprivation indices. Temporal trends were evaluated at 2-week intervals. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression compared SARS-CoV-2 reactive to non-reactive donors by sociodemographic variables.

RESULTS

Overall 552/74642 donors, had detectable antibodies, adjusted seroprevalence was 7.0/1000 donors (95% CI; 6.3, 7.6). Prevalence was differential by geography, Ontario had the highest rate, 8.8/1000 donors (7.8, 9.8), compared to the Atlantic region 4.5/1000 donors (2.6, 6.4); adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.2 (1.5, 3.3). Donors that self-identified as an ethnic minority were more likely than white donors to be sero-reactive aOR 1.5 (1.2, 1.9). No temporal trends were observed.

DISCUSSION

Worldwide, blood services have leveraged their operational capacity to inform public health. While >99% of Canadians did not show humoral evidence of past infection, we found regional variability and disparities by ethnicity. Seroprevalence studies will continue to play a pivotal role in evaluating public health policies by identifying trends and monitor disparities.

Multicenter Evaluation of the Clinical Performance and the Neutralizing Antibody Activity Prediction Properties of 10 High-Throughput Serological Assays Used in Clinical Laboratories

As the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic second wave is emerging, it is of the upmost importance to screen the population immunity in order to keep track of infected individuals. Consequently, immunoassays for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with high specificity and positive predictive values are needed to obtain an accurate epidemiological picture. As more data accumulate about the immune responses and the kinetics of neutralizing-antibody (nAb) production in SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals, new applications are forecast for serological assays such as nAb activity prediction in convalescent-phase plasma from recovered patients. This multicenter study, involving six hospital centers, determined the baseline clinical performances, reproducibility, and nAb level correlations of 10 commercially available immunoassays. In addition, three lateral-flow chromatography assays were evaluated, as these devices can be used in logistically challenged areas. All assays were evaluated using the same patient panels in duplicate, thus enabling accurate comparison of the tests. Seven immunoassays examined in this study were shown to have excellent specificity (98 to 100%) and good to excellent positive predictive values (82 to 100%) when used in a low (5%)-seroprevalence setting. We observed sensitivities as low as 74% and as high as 95% at ≥15 days after symptom onset. The determination of optimized cutoff values through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses had a significant impact on the diagnostic resolution of several enzyme immunoassays by increasing the sensitivity significantly without a large trade-off in specificity. We found that spike-based immunoassays seem to be better correlates of nAb activity. Finally, the results reported here will add to the general knowledge of the interlaboratory reproducibility of clinical performance parameters of immunoassays and provide new evidence about nAb activity prediction.

Citywide serosurveillance of the initial SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in San Francisco

Serosurveillance provides a unique opportunity to quantify the proportion of the population that has been exposed to pathogens. Here, we developed and piloted Serosurveillance for Continuous, ActionabLe Epidemiologic Intelligence of Transmission (SCALE-IT), a platform through which we systematically tested remnant samples from routine blood draws in two major hospital networks in San Francisco for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies during the early months of the pandemic. Importantly, SCALE-IT allows for algorithmic sample selection and rich data on covariates by leveraging electronic medical record data. We estimated overall seroprevalence at 4.2%, corresponding to a case ascertainment rate of only 4.9%, and identified important heterogeneities by neighborhood, homelessness status, and race/ethnicity. Neighborhood seroprevalence estimates from SCALE-IT were comparable to local community-based surveys, while providing results encompassing the entire city that have been previously unavailable. Leveraging this hybrid serosurveillance approach has strong potential for application beyond this local context and for diseases other than SARS-CoV-2.

A multiplex chemiluminescent immunoassay for serological profiling of COVID-19-positive symptomatic and asymptomatic patients

The COVID-19 pandemic affects more than 81 million people worldwide with over 1.7 million deaths. As the population returns to work, it is critical to develop tests that reliably detect SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies. Here we present results from a multiplex serology test for assessing the antibody responses to COVID-19. In an initial large cohort, this test shows greater than 99% agreement with COVID-19 PCR test. In a second outpatient cohort consisting of adults and children in Colorado, the IgG responses are more robust in positive/symptomatic participants than in positive/asymptomatic participants, the IgM responses in symptomatic participants are transient and largely fall below the detection limit 30 days after symptom onset, and the levels of IgA against SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain are significantly increased in participants with moderate-to-severe symptoms compared to those with mild-to-moderate symptoms or asymptomatic individuals. Our results thus provide insight into serology profiling and the immune response to COVID-19.

Antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 may be important biomarkers for assessing the risk for viral transmission. Here the authors present serological antibody profiling results of COVID-19 patients using a new multiplex assay to show distinct kinetics and dynamics of IgG, IgM and IgA responses in patients with different disease severity.

COVID-19: Understanding Inter-Individual Variability and Implications for Precision Medicine

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is characterized by heterogeneity in susceptibility to the disease and severity of illness. Understanding inter-individual variation has important implications for not only allocation of resources but also targeting patients for escalation of care, inclusion in clinical trials, and individualized medical therapy including vaccination. In addition to geographic location and social vulnerability, there are clear biological differences such as age, sex, race, presence of comorbidities, underlying genetic variation, and differential immune response that contribute to variability in disease manifestation. These differences may have implications for precision medicine. Specific examples include the observation that androgens regulate the expression of the enzyme transmembrane protease, serine 2 which facilitates severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 viral entry into the cell; therefore, androgen deprivation therapy is being explored as a treatment option in males infected with COVID-19. An immunophenotyping study of COVID-19 patients has shown that a subset develop T cytopenia which has prompted a clinical trial that is testing the efficacy of interleukin-7 in these patients. Predicting which COVID-19 patients will develop progressive disease that will require hospitalization has important implications for clinical trials that target outpatients. Enrollment of patients at low risk for progression of disease and hospitalization would likely not result in such therapy demonstrating efficacy. There are efforts to use artificial intelligence to integrate digital data from smartwatch applications or digital monitoring systems and biological data to enable identification of the high risk COVID-19 patient. The ultimate goal of precision medicine using such modern technology is to recognize individual differences to improve health for all.