Beechnuts and outbreaks of nephropathia epidemica (NE): of mast, mice and men

High-resolution early warning system for human Puumala hantavirus infection risk in Germany

The fluctuation of human infections by the Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV) in Germany has been linked to weather and phenology parameters that drive the population growth of its host species. We quantified the annual PUUV-outbreaks at the district level by binarizing the reported infections in the period 2006-2021. With these labels we trained a model based on a support vector machine classifier for predicting local outbreaks and incidence well in advance. The feature selection for the optimal model was performed by a heuristic method and identified five monthly weather variables from the previous two years plus the beech flowering intensity of the previous year. The predictive power of the optimal model was assessed by a leave-one-out cross-validation in 16 years that led to an 82.8% accuracy for the outbreak and a 0.457 coefficient of determination for the incidence. Prediction risk maps for the entire endemic area in Germany will be annually available on a freely-accessible permanent online platform of the German Environment Agency. The model correctly identified 2022 as a year with low outbreak risk, whereas its prediction for large-scale high outbreak risk in 2023 was not confirmed.

Operational TBE incidence forecasts for Austria, Germany, and Switzerland 2019-2021

In spring 2019, forecasts of the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) for the next 2 years, i.e. 2019 and 2020, were made for the first time. For this purpose, negative binomial regression models with 4-5 predictors were fitted to the time series of annual human TBE incidences from Austria, Germany, and Switzerland. The most important predictor for TBE incidences is the fructification index of the European beech (Fagus sylvatica) 2 years prior as a proxi for the intensity of the TBE virus transmission cycle. These forecasts were repeated in spring 2020 after the updated predictors and the confirmed TBE cases for 2019 became available. Forecasting TBE incidences for 2020 and 2021 results in 156 ± 19 and 131 ± 23 TBE cases for Austria, 663 ± 95 and 543 ± 112 TBE cases for Germany as well as 472 ± 56 and 350 ± 62 TBE cases for Switzerland. The newly implemented operational TBE forecasts will be verified every year with confirmed TBE cases. An initial verification for 2019 demonstrates the high reliability of the forecasts.

Orthohantaviruses, Emerging Zoonotic Pathogens

Orthohantaviruses give rise to the emerging infections such as of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in Eurasia and the Americas, respectively. In this review we will provide a comprehensive analysis of orthohantaviruses distribution and circulation in Eurasia and address the genetic diversity and evolution of Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV), which causes HFRS in this region. Current data indicate that the geographical location and migration of the natural hosts can lead to the orthohantaviruses genetic diversity as the rodents adapt to the new environmental conditions. The data shows that a high level of diversity characterizes the genome of orthohantaviruses, and the PUUV genome is the most divergent. The reasons for the high genome diversity are mainly caused by point mutations and reassortment, which occur in the genome segments. However, it still remains unclear whether this diversity is linked to the disease’s severity. We anticipate that the information provided in this review will be useful for optimizing and developing preventive strategies of HFRS, an emerging zoonosis with potentially very high mortality rates.

Detection and Genetic Characterization of Puumala Orthohantavirus S-Segment in Areas of France Non-Endemic for Nephropathia Epidemica

Puumala virus (PUUV) in Europe causes nephropathia epidemica (NE), a mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). The incidence of NE is highly heterogeneous spatially, whereas the geographic distribution of the wild reservoir of PUUV, the bank vole, is essentially homogeneous. Our understanding of the processes driving this heterogeneity remains incomplete due to gaps in knowledge. Little is known about the current distribution and genetic variation of PUUV in the areas outside the well-identified zones of NE endemicity. We trapped bank voles in four forests in French regions in which NE is considered non-endemic, but sporadic NE cases have been reported recently. We tested bank voles for anti-PUUV IgG and characterized the S segment sequences of PUUV from seropositive animals. Phylogenetic analyses revealed specific amino-acid signatures and genetic differences between PUUV circulating in non-endemic and nearby NE-endemic areas. We also showed, in temporal surveys, that the amino-acid sequences of PUUV had undergone fewer recent changes in areas non-endemic for NE than in endemic areas. The evolutionary history of the current French PUUV clusters was investigated by phylogeographic approaches, and the results were considered in the context of the history of French forests. Our findings highlight the need to monitor the circulation and genetics of PUUV in a larger array of bank vole populations, to improve our understanding of the risk of NE.

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) cases are not random: explaining trend, low- and high-frequency oscillations based on the Austrian TBE time series

BACKGROUND

Why human tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) cases differ from year to year, in some years more 100%, has not been clarified, yet. The cause of the increasing or decreasing trends is also controversial. Austria is the only country in Europe where a 40-year TBE time series and an official vaccine coverage time series are available to investigate these open questions.

METHODS

A series of generalized linear models (GLMs) has been developed to identify demographic and environmental factors associated with the trend and the oscillations of the TBE time series. Both the observed and the predicted TBE time series were subjected to spectral analysis. The resulting power spectra indicate which predictors are responsible for the trend, the high-frequency and the low-frequency oscillations, and with which explained variance they contribute to the TBE oscillations.

RESULTS

The increasing trend can be associated with the demography of the increasing human population. The responsible GLM explains 12% of the variance of the TBE time series. The low-frequency oscillations (10 years) are associated with the decadal changes of the large-scale climate in Central Europe. These are well described by the so-called Scandinavian index. This 10-year oscillation cycle is reinforced by the socio-economic predictor net migration. Considering the net migration and the Scandinavian index increases the explained variance of the GLM to 44%. The high-frequency oscillations (2-3 years) are associated with fluctuations of the natural TBE transmission cycle between small mammals and ticks, which are driven by beech fructification. Considering also fructification 2 years prior explains 64% of the variance of the TBE time series. Additionally, annual sunshine duration as predictor for the human outdoor activity increases the explained variance to 70%.

CONCLUSIONS

The GLMs presented here provide the basis for annual TBE forecasts, which were mainly determined by beech fructification. A total of 3 of the 5 years with full fructification, resulting in high TBE case numbers 2 years later, occurred after 2010. The effects of climate change are therefore not visible through a direct correlation of the TBE cases with rising temperatures, but indirectly via the increased frequency of mast seeding.

Intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of transmission dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome caused by Seoul hantavirus

Seoul hantavirus (SEOV) has recently raised concern by causing geographic range expansion of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). SEOV infections in humans are significantly underestimated worldwide and epidemic dynamics of SEOV-related HFRS are poorly understood because of a lack of field data and empirically validated models. Here, we use mathematical models to examine both intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of disease transmission from animal (the Norway rat) to humans in a SEOV-endemic area in China. We found that rat eradication schemes and vaccination campaigns, but below the local elimination threshold, could diminish the amplitude of the HFRS epidemic but did not modify its seasonality. Models demonstrate population dynamics of the rodent host were insensitive to climate variations in urban settings, while relative humidity had a negative effect on the seasonality in transmission. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the epidemiology of SEOV-related HFRS, demonstrates asynchronies between rodent population dynamics and transmission rate, and identifies potential drivers of the SEOV seasonality.

Seoul hantavirus (SEOV) infections are common in Europe and Asia where a considerably high seroprevalence among the population is found. However, only relatively few hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) cases are reported. Comprehensive epidemiological data is necessary to study the patterns and drivers of this underestimated disease. Here, we analyzed rodent host surveillance and seroprevalence data from 1998 to 2015 for disease outbreaks in Huludao City, one of the typical SEOV-endemic areas for HFRS in China. Our mathematical models quantified the drivers on HFRS transmission and estimated the epidemiological parameters. Our study provides an understanding of its ecological process between intrinsic and extrinsic factors, human-rodent interface and disease dynamics.

The ecological dynamics of hantavirus diseases: From environmental variability to disease prevention largely based on data from China

Hantaviruses can cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in the Americas and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Eurasia. In recent decades, repeated outbreaks of hantavirus disease have led to public concern and have created a global public health burden. Hantavirus spillover from natural hosts into human populations could be considered an ecological process, in which environmental forces, behavioral determinants of exposure, and dynamics at the human–animal interface affect human susceptibility and the epidemiology of the disease. In this review, we summarize the progress made in understanding hantavirus epidemiology and rodent reservoir population biology. We mainly focus on three species of rodent hosts with longitudinal studies of sufficient scale: the striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius, the main reservoir host for Hantaan virus [HTNV], which causes HFRS) in Asia, the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus, the main reservoir host for Sin Nombre virus [SNV], which causes HPS) in North America, and the bank vole (Myodes glareolus, the main reservoir host for Puumala virus [PUUV], which causes HFRS) in Europe. Moreover, we discuss the influence of ecological factors on human hantavirus disease outbreaks and provide an overview of research perspectives.

A Novel Hantavirus of the European Mole, Bruges Virus, Is Involved in Frequent Nova Virus Coinfections

Hantaviruses are zoonotic viruses with a complex evolutionary history of virus–host coevolution and cross-species transmission. Although hantaviruses have a broad reservoir host range, virus–host relationships were previously thought to be strict, with a single virus species infecting a single host species. Here, we describe Bruges virus, a novel hantavirus harbored by the European mole (Talpa europaea), which is the well-known host of Nova virus. Phylogenetic analyses of all three genomic segments showed tree topology inconsistencies, suggesting that Bruges virus has emerged from cross-species transmission and ancient reassortment events. A high number of coinfections with Bruges and Nova viruses was detected, but no evidence was found for reassortment between these two hantaviruses. These findings highlight the complexity of hantavirus evolution and the importance of further investigation of hantavirus–reservoir relationships.

Puumala Virus in Bank Voles, Lithuania

Little is known about the presence of human pathogenic Puumala virus (PUUV) in Lithuania. We detected this virus in bank voles (Myodes glareolus) in a region of this country in which previously PUUV-seropositive humans were identified. Our results are consistent with heterogeneous distributions of PUUV in other countries in Europe.

Hantaviruses and a neglected environmental determinant

Most human pathogenic hantaviruses cause severe hemorrhagic fevers with a high rate of fatalities, such as occurs due to the genotypes causing hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome carried by the New World Sigmodontinae and Neotominae rodents. An increasing number of outbreaks and the possibility of cases spreading over international borders have led to greater interest in these viruses and the environmental determinants that facilitate their transmission. Rodents, shrews, moles and bats act as reservoir hosts of hantaviruses, and within the hantavirus transmission flow, the prevalence and distribution of infection in reservoir hosts is influenced by a range of factors. Climate change and landscape alteration affect hantavirus transmission, but the outcomes can differ among different hantaviruses and for the same virus in differentbiomes. However, it is evident that the underlying mechanisms that mediate hantavirus transmission are largely unknown, so that much work remains to be done regarding the transmission dynamics of hantaviruses. Overall, our review highlights the importance of examining interactions over several trophic levels and the underlying mechanisms (density and trait-mediated indirect effects) linking predation risk and hantavirus transmission, to develop an ecological framework to understand disease in natural, preserved and degraded systems.

Spatial prediction and validation of zoonotic hazard through micro-habitat properties: where does Puumala hantavirus hole - up?

Background

To predict the risk of infectious diseases originating in wildlife, it is important to identify habitats that allow the co-occurrence of pathogens and their hosts. Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is a directly-transmitted RNA virus that causes hemorrhagic fever in humans, and is carried and transmitted by the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). In northern Sweden, bank voles undergo 3–4 year population cycles, during which their spatial distribution varies greatly.

Methods

We used boosted regression trees; a technique inspired by machine learning, on a 10 – year time-series (fall 2003–2013) to develop a spatial predictive model assessing seasonal PUUV hazard using micro-habitat variables in a landscape heavily modified by forestry. We validated the models in an independent study area approx. 200 km away by predicting seasonal presence of infected bank voles in a five-year-period (2007–2010 and 2015).

Results

The distribution of PUUV-infected voles varied seasonally and inter-annually. In spring, micro-habitat variables related to cover and food availability in forests predicted both bank vole and infected bank vole presence. In fall, the presence of PUUV-infected voles was generally restricted to spruce forests where cover was abundant, despite the broad landscape distribution of bank voles in general. We hypothesize that the discrepancy in distribution between infected and uninfected hosts in fall, was related to higher survival of PUUV and/or PUUV-infected voles in the environment, especially where cover is plentiful.

Conclusions

Moist and mesic old spruce forests, with abundant cover such as large holes and bilberry shrubs, also providing food, were most likely to harbor infected bank voles. The models developed using long-term and spatially extensive data can be extrapolated to other areas in northern Fennoscandia. To predict the hazard of directly transmitted zoonoses in areas with unknown risk status, models based on micro-habitat variables and developed through machine learning techniques in well-studied systems, could be used.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-017-2618-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Spatial patterns and broad-scale weather cues of beech mast seeding in Europe

Mast seeding is a crucial population process in many tree species, but its spatio-temporal patterns and drivers at the continental scale remain unknown . Using a large dataset (8000 masting observations across Europe for years 1950-2014) we analysed the spatial pattern of masting across the entire geographical range of European beech, how it is influenced by precipitation, temperature and drought, and the temporal and spatial stability of masting-weather correlations. Beech masting exhibited a general distance-dependent synchronicity and a pattern structured in three broad geographical groups consistent with continental climate regimes. Spearman's correlations and logistic regression revealed a general pattern of beech masting correlating negatively with temperature in the summer 2 yr before masting, and positively with summer temperature 1 yr before masting (i.e. 2T model). The temperature difference between the two previous summers (DeltaT model) was also a good predictor. Moving correlation analysis applied to the longest eight chronologies (74-114 yr) revealed stable correlations between temperature and masting, confirming consistency in weather cues across space and time. These results confirm widespread dependency of masting on temperature and lend robustness to the attempts to reconstruct and predict mast years using temperature data.

Modelling human Puumala hantavirus infection in relation to bank vole abundance and masting intensity in the Netherlands

This paper deals with modelling the relationship between human Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) infection, the abundance and prevalence of infection of the host (the bank vole), mast, and temperature. These data were used to build and parametrise generalised regression models, and parametrise them using datasets on these factors pertaining to the Netherlands. The performance of the models was assessed by considering their predictive power. Models including mast and monthly temperature performed well, and showed that mast intensity influences vole abundance and hence human exposure for the following year. Thus, the model can aid in forecasting of human illness cases, since (1) mast intensity influences the vole abundance and hence human exposure for the following year and (2) monitoring of mast is much more feasible than determining bank vole abundance.

Puumala hantavirus infections in bank vole populations: host and virus dynamics in Central Europe

BACKGROUND

In Europe, bank voles (Myodes glareolus) are widely distributed and can transmit Puumala virus (PUUV) to humans, which causes a mild to moderate form of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, called nephropathia epidemica. Uncovering the link between host and virus dynamics can help to prevent human PUUV infections in the future. Bank voles were live trapped three times a year in 2010-2013 in three woodland plots in each of four regions in Germany. Bank vole population density was estimated and blood samples collected to detect PUUV specific antibodies.

RESULTS

We demonstrated that fluctuation of PUUV seroprevalence is dependent not only on multi-annual but also on seasonal dynamics of rodent host abundance. Moreover, PUUV infection might affect host fitness, because seropositive individuals survived better from spring to summer than uninfected bank voles. Individual space use was independent of PUUV infections.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides robust estimations of relevant patterns and processes of the dynamics of PUUV and its rodent host in Central Europe, which are highly important for the future development of predictive models for human hantavirus infection risk.

Microevolution of bank voles (Myodes glareolus) at neutral and immune-related genes during multiannual dynamic cycles: Consequences for Puumala hantavirus epidemiology

Understanding how host dynamics, including variations of population size and dispersal, may affect the epidemiology of infectious diseases through ecological and evolutionary processes is an active research area. Here we focus on a bank vole (Myodes glareolus) metapopulation surveyed in Finland between 2005 and 2009. Bank vole is the reservoir of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV), the agent of nephropathia epidemica (NE, a mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal symptom) in humans. M. glareolus populations experience multiannual density fluctuations that may influence the level of genetic diversity maintained in bank voles, PUUV prevalence and NE occurrence. We examine bank vole metapopulation genetics at presumably neutral markers and immune-related genes involved in susceptibility to PUUV (Tnf-promoter, Tlr4, Tlr7 and Mx2 gene) to investigate the links between population dynamics, microevolutionary processes and PUUV epidemiology. We show that genetic drift slightly and transiently affects neutral and adaptive genetic variability within the metapopulation. Gene flow seems to counterbalance its effects during the multiannual density fluctuations. The low abundance phase may therefore be too short to impact genetic variation in the host, and consequently viral genetic diversity. Environmental heterogeneity does not seem to affect vole gene flow, which might explain the absence of spatial structure previously detected in PUUV in this area. Besides, our results suggest the role of vole dispersal on PUUV circulation through sex-specific and density-dependent movements. We find little evidence of selection acting on immune-related genes within this metapopulation. Footprint of positive selection is detected at Tlr-4 gene in 2008 only. We observe marginally significant associations between Mx2 genotype and PUUV genogroups. These results show that neutral processes seem to be the main factors affecting the evolution of these immune-related genes at a contemporary scale, although the relative effects of neutral and adaptive forces could vary temporally with density fluctuations. Immune related gene polymorphism may in turn partly influence PUUV epidemiology in this metapopulation.

Reservoir-Driven Heterogeneous Distribution of Recorded Human Puumala virus Cases in South-West Germany

Endemic regions for Puumala virus (PUUV) are located in the most affected federal state Baden-Wuerttemberg, South-West Germany, where high numbers of notified human hantavirus disease cases have been occurring for a long time. The distribution of human cases in Baden-Wuerttemberg is, however, heterogeneous, with a high number of cases recorded during 2012 in four districts (H districts) but a low number or even no cases recorded in four other districts (L districts). Bank vole monitoring during 2012, following a beech (Fagus sylvatica) mast year, resulted in the trapping of 499 bank voles, the host of PUUV. Analyses indicated PUUV prevalences of 7-50% (serological) and 1.8-27.5% (molecular) in seven of eight districts, but an absence of PUUV in one L district. The PUUV prevalence differed significantly between bank voles in H and L districts. In the following year 2013, 161 bank voles were trapped, with reduced bank vole abundance in almost all investigated districts except one. In 2013, no PUUV infections were detected in voles from seven of eight districts. In conclusion, the linear modelling approach indicated that the heterogeneous distribution of human PUUV cases in South-West Germany was caused by different factors including the abundance of PUUV RNA-positive bank voles, as well as by the interaction of beech mast and the proportional coverage of beech and oak (Quercus spec.) forest per district. These results can aid developing local public health risk management measures and early warning models.

Regional differences in long-term cycles and seasonality of Puumala virus infections, Finland, 1995-2014

Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) causes haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in humans, an endemic disease in Finland. We aimed to study recent trends in PUUV infections in Finland, to evaluate whether there are regional differences in seasonality and long-term cycles and whether the patterns have changed over time. We analysed serologically confirmed acute PUUV infections reported to the National Infectious Disease Register from 1 April 1995 to 31 March 2014. A total of 30 942 cases of PUUV infections were identified during the study period. The average annual incidence was 31 cases/100 000 person-years with the highest in Eastern Finland and the lowest in Southwestern Finland. Throughout Finland there was not an increasing trend in incidence but changes in incidence, seasonality and long-term cycles differed regionally. Long-term cycles supported by high Bayesian posterior probabilities (73-100%) differed between the south and the north, shifting from 3 to 4 years, respectively. Temporal changes in seasonality were most prominent in Southwestern Finland. The pattern of human PUUV infection epidemiology probably primarily reflects the spatio-temporal interaction between bank-vole population dynamics and climate.

Temporal dynamics of Puumala hantavirus infection in cyclic populations of bank voles

Understanding the dynamics of zoonotic pathogens in their reservoir host populations is a prerequisite for predicting and preventing human disease epidemics. The human infection risk of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is highest in northern Europe, where populations of the rodent host (bank vole, Myodes glareolus) undergo cyclic fluctuations. We conducted a 7-year capture-mark-recapture study to monitor seasonal and multiannual patterns of the PUUV infection rate in bank vole populations exhibiting a 3-year density cycle. Infected bank voles were most abundant in mid-winter months during years of increasing or peak host density. Prevalence of PUUV infection in bank voles exhibited a regular, seasonal pattern reflecting the annual population turnover and accumulation of infections within each year cohort. In autumn, the PUUV transmission rate tracked increasing host abundance, suggesting a density-dependent transmission. However, prevalence of PUUV infection was similar during the increase and peak years of the density cycle despite a twofold difference in host density. This may result from the high proportion of individuals carrying maternal antibodies constraining transmission during the cycle peak years. Our exceptionally intensive and long-term dataset provides a solid basis on which to develop models to predict the dynamic public health threat posed by PUUV in northern Europe.

Beech Fructification and Bank Vole Population Dynamics--Combined Analyses of Promoters of Human Puumala Virus Infections in Germany

The transmission of wildlife zoonoses to humans depends, amongst others, on complex interactions of host population ecology and pathogen dynamics within host populations. In Europe, the Puumala virus (PUUV) causes nephropathia epidemica in humans. In this study we investigated complex interrelations within the epidemic system of PUUV and its rodent host, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). We suggest that beech fructification and bank vole abundance are both decisive factors affecting human PUUV infections. While rodent host dynamics are expected to be directly linked to human PUUV infections, beech fructification is a rather indirect predictor by serving as food source for PUUV rodent hosts. Furthermore, we examined the dependence of bank vole abundance on beech fructification. We analysed a 12-year (2001-2012) time series of the parameters: beech fructification (as food resource for the PUUV host), bank vole abundance and human incidences from 7 Federal States of Germany. For the first time, we could show the direct interrelation between these three parameters involved in human PUUV epidemics and we were able to demonstrate on a large scale that human PUUV infections are highly correlated with bank vole abundance in the present year, as well as beech fructification in the previous year. By using beech fructification and bank vole abundance as predictors in one model we significantly improved the degree of explanation of human PUUV incidence. Federal State was included as random factor because human PUUV incidence varies considerably among states. Surprisingly, the effect of rodent abundance on human PUUV infections is less strong compared to the indirect effect of beech fructification. Our findings are useful to facilitate the development of predictive models for host population dynamics and the related PUUV infection risk for humans and can be used for plant protection and human health protection purposes.

Environmental conditions in favour of a hantavirus outbreak in 2015 in Germany?

Bank voles can harbour Puumala virus (PUUV) and vole populations usually peak in years after beech mast. A beech mast occurred in 2014 and a predictive model indicates high vole abundance in 2015. This pattern is similar to the years 2009/2011 when beech mast occurred, bank voles multiplied and human PUUV infections increased a year later. Given similar environmental conditions in 2014/2015, increased risk of human PUUV infections in 2015 is likely. Risk management measures are recommended.

Community Acquired Severe Acute Kidney Injury Caused by Hantavirus-Induced Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Has a Favorable Outcome

BACKGROUND

Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) induces an acute tubulointerstitial nephritis and acute kidney injury (AKI). Our aim was to evaluate the prognosis of severe AKI associated with PUUV infection.

METHODS

We examined 556 patients who were treated at Tampere University Hospital during 1982-2013 for acute, serologically confirmed PUUV infection. Plasma creatinine was measured during hospitalization, convalescence, and 1, 2, and 5 years after the acute infection.

RESULTS

Plasma creatinine concentration was elevated (>100 μmol/l) in 459 (83%) patients, while altogether 189 patients (34%) had severe AKI defined as Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) stage 3, that is, plasma creatinine ≥353.6 μmol/l (4.0 mg/dl) or need of dialysis. There were no fatal cases during the hospitalization or the following 3 months. Fatality rate during the years following PUUV infection did not differ between patients who had suffered from severe AKI versus those without severe AKI. Post-hospitalization plasma creatinine values were available for 188 (34%) patients. One month after the acute infection, patients with prior severe AKI had higher median plasma creatinine concentration (82 µmol/l, range 54-184) than patients without severe AKI (74 µmol/l, range 55-109, p = 0.005). After 1 year, no significant difference existed in median plasma creatinine concentrations between patients with (71 µmol/l, range 36-123) and without prior severe AKI (72 µmol/l, range 34-116, p = 0.711). After 5 years all but 1 patient had normal creatinine levels.

CONCLUSIONS

In contrast to the worldwide well-accepted KDIGO criteria, severe AKI associated with PUUV infection is not associated with excess fatality but has a very good prognosis, both in the short and long terms.

Climate Variability and the Occurrence of Human Puumala Hantavirus Infections in Europe: A Systematic Review

Hantaviruses are distributed worldwide and are transmitted by rodents. In Europe, the infection usually manifests as a mild form of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) known as nephropathia epidemica (NE), which is triggered by the virus species Puumala. Its host is the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). In the context of climate change, interest in the role of climatic factors for the disease has increased. A systematic review was conducted to investigate the association between climate variability and the occurrence of human Puumala hantavirus infections in Europe. We performed a literature search in the databases MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science. Studies that investigated Puumala virus infection and climatic factors in any European country with a minimum collection period of 2 years were included. The selection of abstracts and the evaluation of included studies were performed by two independent reviewers. A total of 434 titles were identified in the databases, of which nine studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The majority of studies were conducted in central Europe (Belgium, France and Germany), while only two came from the north (Sweden) and one from the south (Bosnia). Strong evidence was found for a positive association between temperature and NE incidence in central Europe, while the evidence for northern Europe so far appears insufficient. Results regarding precipitation were contradictory. Overall, the complex relationships between climate and hantavirus infections need further exploration to identify specific health risks and initiate appropriate intervention measures in the context of climate change.

Identification of factors influencing the Puumala virus seroprevalence within its reservoir in aMontane Forest Environment

Puumala virus (PUUV) is a major cause of mild to moderate haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and is transmitted by the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). There has been a high cumulative incidence of recorded human cases in South-eastern Germany since 2004 when the region was first recognized as being endemic for PUUV. As the area is well known for outdoor recreation and the Bavarian Forest National Park (BFNP) is located in the region, the increasing numbers of recorded cases are of concern. To understand the population and environmental effects on the seroprevalence of PUUV in bank voles we trapped small mammals at 23 sites along an elevation gradient from 317 to 1420m above sea level. Generalized linear mixed effects models(GLMEM) were used to explore associations between the seroprevalence of PUUV in bank voles and climate and biotic factors. We found that the seroprevalence of PUUV was low (6%–7%) in 2008 and 2009, and reached 29% in 2010. PUUV seroprevalence was positively associated with the local species diversity and deadwood layer, and negatively associated with mean annual temperature, mean annual solar radiation, and herb layer. Based on these findings, an illustrative risk map for PUUV seroprevalence prediction in bank voles was created for an area of the national park. The map will help when planning infrastructure in the national park (e.g., huts, shelters, and trails).

Detection of Puumala hantavirus antigen in human intestine during acute hantavirus infection

Background

Puumala virus (PUUV) is the most important hantavirus species in Central Europe. Nephropathia epidemica (NE), caused by PUUV, is characterized by acute renal injury (AKI) with thrombocytopenia and frequently gastrointestinal symptoms.

Methods

456 patients with serologically and clinically confirmed NE were investigated at time of follow-up in a single clinic. The course of the NE was investigated using medical reports. We identified patients who had endoscopy with intestinal biopsy during acute phase of NE. Histopathological, immunohistochemical and molecular analyses of the biopsies were performed.

Results

Thirteen patients underwent colonoscopy or gastroscopy for abdominal pain, diarrhea, nausea and vomiting during acute phase of NE. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) revealed PUUV nucleocapsid antigen in 11 biopsies from 8 patients; 14 biopsies from 5 patients were negative for PUUV nucleocapsid antigen. IHC localized PUUV nucleocapsid antigen in endothelial cells of capillaries or larger vessels in the lamina propria. Rate of AKI was not higher and severity of AKI was not different in the PUUV-positive compared to the PUUV-negative group. All IHC positive biopsies were positive for PUUV RNA using RT-PCR. Phylogenetic reconstruction revealed clustering of all PUUV strains from this study with viruses previously detected from the South-West of Germany. Long-term outcome was favorable in both groups.

Conclusions

In patients with NE, PUUV nucleocapsid antigen and PUUV RNA was detected frequently in the intestine. This finding could explain frequent GI-symptoms in NE patients, thus demonstration of a more generalized PUUV infection. The RT-PCR was an effective and sensitive method to detect PUUV RNA in FFPE tissues. Therefore, it can be used as a diagnostic and phylogenetic approach also for archival materials. AKI was not more often present in patients with PUUV-positive IHC. This last finding should be investigated in larger numbers of patients with PUUV infection.

First molecular evidence for Puumala hantavirus in Poland

Puumala virus (PUUV) causes mild to moderate cases of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), and is responsible for the majority of hantavirus infections of humans in Fennoscandia, Central and Western Europe. Although there are relatively many PUUV sequences available from different European countries, little is known about the presence of this virus in Poland. During population studies in 2009 a total of 45 bank voles were trapped at three sites in north-eastern Poland, namely islands on Dejguny and Dobskie Lakes and in a forest near Mikołajki. S and M segment-specific RT-PCR assays detected PUUV RNA in three animals from the Mikołajki site. The obtained partial S and M segment sequences demonstrated the highest similarity to the corresponding segments of a PUUV strain from Latvia. Analysis of chest cavity fluid samples by IgG ELISA using a yeast-expressed PUUV nucleocapsid protein resulted in the detection of two seropositive samples, both being also RT-PCR positive. Interestingly, at the trapping site in Mikołajki PUUV-positive bank voles belong to the Carpathian and Eastern genetic lineages within this species. In conclusion, we herein present the first molecular evidence for PUUV in the rodent reservoir from Poland.

Ecological niche modelling of bank voles in Western Europe

The bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is the natural host of Puumala virus (PUUV) in vast areas of Europe. PUUV is one of the hantaviruses which are transmitted to humans by infected rodents. PUUV causes a general mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) called nephropathia epidemica (NE). Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases generally display clear spatial patterns due to different space-dependent factors. Land cover influences disease transmission by controlling both the spatial distribution of vectors or hosts, as well as by facilitating the human contact with them. In this study the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM) for predicting the geographical distribution of bank vole population on the basis of spatial climate information is tested. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) is used to model the ecological niche of bank voles in Western Europe. The meteorological data, land cover types and geo-referenced points representing the locations of the bank voles (latitude/longitude) in the study area are used as the primary model input value. The predictive accuracy of the bank vole ecologic niche model was significant (training accuracy of 86%). The output of the GARP models based on the 50% subsets of points used for testing the model showed an accuracy of 75%. Compared with random models, the probability of such high predictivity was low (χ(2) tests, p < 10(-6)). As such, the GARP models were predictive and the used ecologic niche model indeed indicates the ecologic requirements of bank voles. This approach successfully identified the areas of infection risk across the study area. The result suggests that the niche modelling approach can be implemented in a next step towards the development of new tools for monitoring the bank vole's population.

Multiple synchronous outbreaks of Puumala virus, Germany, 2010

To investigate 2,017 cases of hantavirus disease in Germany, we compared 38 new patient-derived Puumala virus RNA sequences identified in 2010 with bank vole–derived small segment RNA sequences. The epidemic process was driven by outbreaks of 6 Puumala virus clades comprising strains of human and vole origin. Each clade corresponded to a different outbreak region.

Using the gravity model to estimate the spatial spread of vector-borne diseases

The gravity models are commonly used spatial interaction models. They have been widely applied in a large set of domains dealing with interactions amongst spatial entities. The spread of vector-borne diseases is also related to the intensity of interaction between spatial entities, namely, the physical habitat of pathogens’ vectors and/or hosts, and urban areas, thus humans. This study implements the concept behind gravity models in the spatial spread of two vector-borne diseases, nephropathia epidemica and Lyme borreliosis, based on current knowledge on the transmission mechanism of these diseases. Two sources of information on vegetated systems were tested: the CORINE land cover map and MODIS NDVI. The size of vegetated areas near urban centers and a local indicator of occupation-related exposure were found significant predictors of disease risk. Both the land cover map and the space-borne dataset were suited yet not equivalent input sources to locate and measure vegetated areas of importance for disease spread. The overall results point at the compatibility of the gravity model concept and the spatial spread of vector-borne diseases.

Relating land cover and spatial distribution of nephropathia epidemica and Lyme borreliosis in Belgium

Lyme borreliosis (LB) and nephropathia epidemica (NE) are zoonoses resulting from two different transmission mechanisms and the action of two different pathogens: the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi and the Puumala virus, respectively. The landscape configuration is known to influence the spatial spread of both diseases by affecting vector demography and human exposure to infection. Yet, the connections between landscape and disease have rarely been quantified, thereby hampering the exploitation of land cover data sources to segment areas in function of risk. This study implemented a data-driven approach to relate land cover metrics and an indicator of NE/LB risk at different scales of observation of the landscape. Our results showed the suitability of the modeling approach (r² > 0.75, ρ < 0.001) and highlighted the relevance of the scale of observation in the set of landscape attributes found to influence disease risk as well as common and specific risk factors of NE and LB.

Arboviruses and viral hemorrhagic fevers (VHF)

The viral hemorrhagic fever (VHF) syndrome is a potentially life-threatening infection typified by a combination of a capillary leak syndrome and bleeding diathesis. Most but not all agents causing VHF are arboviruses, with transmission to humans resulting from an arthropod bite. Agents of VHF affect humans on all continents. Population growth, urbanization, human activities, and even climate change all contribute to a continual flux in the epidemiology of many arboviruses. This review provides an overview of the epidemiology of arboviral infections and VHF, the main clinical syndromes, and their diagnosis and treatment.

Hantavirus and acute appendicitis--the diagnosis behind the diagnosis?

A 33-year-old man with a history of acute lower abdominal pain was admitted to the emergency room. After laparoscopic appendectomy and pathological confirmed acute appendicitis the patient developed thrombocytopenia and acute renal failure. Serological testing for hantaviruses revealed a positive result for PUUV IgG and IgM. Immunohistochemical work-up detected PUUV antigen in endothelial cells of capillaries and larger vessels. The high percentage of patients with hantavirus infection and severe abdominal pain is remarkable and, up to now, unexplained. To our knowledge this is the first report demonstrating PUUV antigen in the human intestine. Further studies are warranted whether hantaviruses are setting the stage for a secondary bacterial infection or cause an inflammation itself.

Seroepidemiological survey of hantavirus infection in healthy people in Vallès Occidental, Barcelona

INTRODUCTION

Hantaviruses are the etiological agents of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Europe and Asia, and hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in America. Approximately 150,000 cases are reported annually worldwide. In Spain, some hantavirus infection cases have been described. Besides, rodents that have been described as hantavirus reservoirs are present. The aim of the present study was to determinate the seroprevalence of hantavirus in humans in the northeast of Spain.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

During a 5-month period, 217 serum samples were collected. The study population was stratified by age, gender, and residential area. Age, gender, residential area, contact with pets, contact with wild animals, contact with farm animals, and occupation were surveyed. Immunoglobulin G antibodies to Hantaan virus, Seoul virus, or Puumala virus were examined by immunofluorescence assay. Titles ≥1/32 against any of the hantavirus were considered positive.

RESULTS

Four (1.8%) positive samples were detected. Age ranged from 14 to 67 years. Two subjects were male. Three samples reacted to both Puumala virus and Hantaan virus. The other one reacted against all three hantavirus surveyed. Titles ranged from 32 to 1024. The highest titles were found against Seoul virus.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data show serological evidence about hantavirus infection among population of Catalonia, northeast of Spain. Seroprevalence rate was (around 2%) similar to other regions of Spain.

Satellite derived forest phenology and its relation with nephropathia epidemica in Belgium

The connection between nephropathia epidemica (NE) and vegetation dynamics has been emphasized in recent studies. Changing climate has been suggested as a triggering factor of recently observed epidemiologic peaks in reported NE cases. We have investigated whether there is a connection between the NE occurrence pattern in Belgium and specific trends in remotely sensed phenology parameters of broad-leaved forests. The analysis of time series of the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index revealed that changes in forest phenology, considered in literature as an effect of climate change, may affect the mechanics of NE transmission.