Detecting nonlinear response of spring phenology to climate change by Bayesian analysis

A variety-specific analysis of climate change effects on California winegrapes

California contains a broad geography over which climate conditions can be suitable for cultivating multiple varieties of winegrapes. However, climate change is projected to make winegrape cultivation more challenging across many of California's winegrowing regions. In order to understand the potential effects of climate change on winegrapes, this study models variety-specific phenology for six winegrape varieties and quantifies the change in phenology and viticulturally-important agroclimate metrics over 12 of California's American Viticultural Areas (AVAs) by the mid-21st century. Results show more rapid development for winegrapes with earlier budburst, flowering, veraison, and maturation across all varieties and AVAs. Cabernet Sauvignon shows the greatest change in phenology timing, while Chardonnay shows the least change. Likewise, the West Sonoma Coast AVA shows the greatest average change in phenology timing across varieties and development stages and Lodi AVA shows the least. Projected changes in agroclimatic metrics include an additional month of potentially damaging heat days (above 35 °C) in some AVAs, and decreases in frost days. These results have implications for numerous factors related to viticultural production, including water resources management and crop yield and quality, and underscore the need for California winegrape growers to improve their resilience to climate change by adopting strategies such as increasing soil health and water use efficiency and selecting cultivars suited for future climate conditions. By conducting climate effects analyses at the variety-specific and AVA scale, important information is provided to the winegrowing industry at a resolution that can support decision-making towards resilience.

Urban environments provide new perspectives for forecasting vegetation phenology responses under climate warming

Given that already-observed temperature increase within cities far exceeds the projected global temperature rise by the end of the century, urban environments often offer a unique opportunity for studying ecosystem response to future warming. However, the validity of thermal gradients in space serving as a substitute for those in time is rarely tested. Here, we investigated vegetation phenology dynamics in China's 343 cities and empirically test whether phenological responses to spatial temperature rise in urban settings can substitute for those to temporal temperature rise in their natural counterparts based on satellite-derived vegetation phenology and land surface temperature from 2003 to 2018. We found prevalent advancing spring phenology with "high confidence" and delaying autumn phenology with "medium confidence" under the context of widespread urban warming. Furthermore, we showed that space cannot substitute for time in predicting phenological shifts under climate warming at the national scale and for most cities. The thresholds of ~11°C mean annual temperature and ~600 mm annual precipitation differentiated the magnitude of phenological sensitivity to temperature across space and through time. Below those thresholds, there existed stronger advanced spring phenology and delayed autumn phenology across the spatial urbanization gradients than through time, and vice versa. Despite the complex and diverse relationships between phenological sensitivities across space and through time, we found that the directions of the temperature changes across spatial gradients were converged (i.e., mostly increased), but divergent through temporal gradients (i.e., increased or decreased without a predominant direction). Similarly, vegetation phenology changes more uniformly over space than through time. These results suggested that the urban environments provide a real-world condition to understand vegetation phenology response under future warming.

Estimating phenology and phenological shifts with hierarchical modeling

Climate-driven changes to phenology are some of the most prevalent climate change impacts, yet there is no commonly accepted approach to modeling phenological shifts. Here, we present a hierarchical modeling framework for estimating intra-annual patterns in phenology (e.g., peak phenological expression) and analyzing interannual rates of change in peak phenology. Our approach allows for the estimation of multiple sources of uncertainty, including observation error (e.g., imperfect observations of intra-annual patterns in phenology like peak flowering date) and variation in phenological processes (e.g., uncertainty in the rate of change in annual peak phenological expression). Covariates may be included as predictors of annual peaks or interannual variability in phenological responses. We demonstrate the use of our hierarchical modeling framework in two migratory species-juvenile chum salmon and Swainson's thrush. We acknowledge that the complexity of hierarchical models can be difficult to implement from scratch and present an R package that can be used to model peak dates and range (number of days between 25th- and 75th-quartile dates), as well as a rate of change in peak phenology. Increasing precision, calculating uncertainty, and allowing for imperfect data sets when estimating phenological shifts should help ecologists understand how organisms respond to climate change.

Assessing temperature-based adaptation limits to climate change of temperate perennial fruit crops

Temperate perennial fruit and nut trees play varying roles in world food diversity-providing edible oils and micronutrient, energy, and protein dense foods. In addition, perennials reuse significant amounts of biomass each year providing a unique resilience. But they also have a unique sensitivity to seasonal temperatures, requiring a period of dormancy for successful growing season production. This paper takes a global view of five temperate tree fruit crops-apples, cherries, almonds, olives, and grapes-and assesses the effects of future temperature changes on thermal suitability. It uses climate data from five earth system models for two CMIP6 climate scenarios and temperature-related indices of stress to indicate potential future areas where crops cannot be grown and highlight potential new suitable regions. The loss of currently suitable areas and new additions in new locations varies by scenario. In the southern hemisphere (SH), end-century (2081-2100) suitable areas under the SSP 5-8.5 scenario decline by more than 40% compared to a recent historical period (1991-2010). In the northern hemisphere (NH) suitability increases by 20% to almost 60%. With SSP1-2.6, however, the changes are much smaller with SH area declining by about 25% and NH increasing by about 10%. The results suggest substantial restructuring of global production for these crops. Essentially, climate change shifts temperature-suitable locations toward higher latitudes. In the SH, most of the historically suitable areas were already at the southern end of the landmass limiting opportunities for adaptation. If breeding efforts can bring chilling requirements for the major cultivars closer to that currently seen in some cultivars, suitable areas at the end of the century are greater, but higher summer temperatures offset the extent. The high value of fruit crops provides adaptation opportunities such as cultivar selection, canopy cooling using sprinklers, shade netting, and precision irrigation.

Climate warming leads to advanced fruit development period of temperate woody species but divergent changes in its length

Climate warming has significantly altered the phenology of plants in recent decades. However, in contrast to the widely reported warming-induced extension of vegetative growing season, the response of fruit development period (FDP) from flowering to fruiting remains largely unexplored, particularly for woody plants. Analyzing >560,000 in situ observations of both flowering and fruiting dates for six temperate woody species across 2958 European phenological observations sites during 1980-2013, we found that in all species both flowering and fruiting phenology, that is, the FDP, advanced with climate warming. However, the advancing rates of the two events were not necessarily equal for any given species, resulting in divergent changes in the length of FDP among species with climate warming. During 1980-2013, not only the temperature during FDP but also the forcing requirement for fruit development increased, both affecting the length of FDP. The shortened FDP was mainly due to elevated temperature, thus accelerating the accumulation of forcing, whereas the prolonged FDP was primarily caused by the substantial increase of the forcing requirement of fruiting, which could be fulfilled only in a longer time and thus slowed down the advance of fruiting. This study provides large-scale empirical evidence of warming-induced advances of FDP but divergent changes in its length in temperate woody species. Our findings demonstrate the contrasting reproductive phenological strategies among temperate woody species under the pressure of warming climate, contrary to the lengthening of vegetative growing season, which is by and largely similar with different woody species.

Towards a Stochastic Model to Simulate Grapevine Architecture: A Case Study on Digitized Riesling Vines Considering Effects of Elevated CO2

Modeling plant growth, in particular with functional-structural plant models, can provide tools to study impacts of changing environments in silico. Simulation studies can be used as pilot studies for reducing the on-field experimental effort when predictive capabilities are given. Robust model calibration leads to less fragile predictions, while introducing uncertainties in predictions allows accounting for natural variability, resulting in stochastic plant growth models. In this study, stochastic model components that can be implemented into the functional-structural plant model Virtual Riesling are developed relying on Bayesian model calibration with the goal to enhance the model towards a fully stochastic model. In this first step, model development targeting phenology, in particular budburst variability, phytomer development rate and internode growth are presented in detail. Multi-objective optimization is applied to estimate a single set of cardinal temperatures, which is used in phenology and growth modeling based on a development days approach. Measurements from two seasons of grapevines grown in a vineyard with free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) are used; thus, model building and selection are coupled with an investigation as to whether including effects of elevated CO2 conditions to be expected in 2050 would improve the models. The results show how natural variability complicates the detection of possible treatment effects, but demonstrate that Bayesian calibration in combination with mixed models can realistically recover natural shoot growth variability in predictions. We expect these and further stochastic model extensions to result in more realistic virtual plant simulations to study effects, which are used to conduct in silico studies of canopy microclimate and its effects on grape health and quality.

Response of Vegetation Photosynthetic Phenology to Urbanization in Dongting Lake Basin, China

Urbanization can induce environmental changes such as the urban heat island effect, which in turn influence the terrestrial ecosystem. However, the effect of urbanization on the phenology of subtropical vegetation remains relatively unexplored. This study analyzed the changing trend of vegetation photosynthetic phenology in Dongting Lake basin, China, and its response to urbanization using nighttime light and chlorophyll fluorescence datasets. Our results indicated the start of the growing season (SOS) of vegetation in the study area was significantly advanced by 0.70 days per year, whereas the end of the growing season (EOS) was delayed by 0.24 days per year during 2000–2017. We found that urbanization promoted the SOS advance and EOS delay. With increasing urbanization intensity, the sensitivity of SOS to urbanization firstly increased then decreased, while the sensitivity of EOS to urbanization decreased with urbanization intensity. The climate sensitivity of vegetation phenology varied with urbanization intensity; urbanization induced an earlier SOS by increasing preseason minimum temperatures and a later EOS by increasing preseason precipitation. These findings improve our understanding of the vegetation phenology response to urbanization in subtropical regions and highlight the need to integrate human activities into future vegetation phenology models.

Seed Shattering: A Trait of Evolutionary Importance in Plants

Seed shattering refers to the natural shedding of seeds when they ripe, a phenomenon typically observed in wild and weedy plant species. The timing and extent of this phenomenon varies considerably among plant species. Seed shattering is primarily a genetically controlled trait; however, it is significantly influenced by environmental conditions, management practices and their interactions, especially in agro-ecosystems. This trait is undesirable in domesticated crops where consistent efforts have been made to minimize it through conventional and molecular breeding approaches. However, this evolutionary trait serves as an important fitness and survival mechanism for most weeds that utilize it to ensure efficient dispersal of their seeds, paving the way for persistent soil seedbank development and sustained future populations. Weeds have continuously evolved variations in seed shattering as an adaptation under changing management regimes. High seed retention is common in many cropping weeds where weed maturity coincides with crop harvest, facilitating seed dispersal through harvesting operations, though some weeds have notoriously high seed shattering before crop harvest. However, high seed retention in some of the most problematic agricultural weed species such as annual ryegrass (Lolium rigidum), wild radish (Raphanus raphanistrum), and weedy amaranths (Amaranthus spp.) provides an opportunity to implement innovative weed management approaches such as harvest weed seed control, which aims at capturing and destroying weed seeds retained at crop harvest. The integration of such management options with other practices is important to avoid the rapid evolution of high seed shattering in target weed species. Advances in genetics and molecular biology have shown promise for reducing seed shattering in important crops, which could be exploited for manipulating seed shattering in weed species. Future research should focus on developing a better understanding of various seed shattering mechanisms in plants in relation to changing climatic and management regimes.

Diverse responses of spring phenology to preseason drought and warming under different biomes in the North China Plain

Global-change-type drought, a combination of drought and warmer temperatures, is projected to have severe effects on vegetation growth and ecosystem functions. Spring phenology is an important biological indicator to understand the response of vegetation growth to climate change. However, the differences in the response of spring phenology to global-change-type drought among various vegetation types remain unclear. Here, we extracted the start of growing season (SOS) from NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data using Spline-midpoint, HANTS-Maximum, and Timesat-SG methods in the North China Plain over the period 1982-2015. Then, we investigated the effects of preseason drought on SOS (based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI), and compared responses of SOS to the minimum temperature (T_min), maximum temperature (T_max), and mean temperature (T_mean) in different biomes. Results showed a trend of advanced SOS in 81.7% of pixels in the North China Plain, with an average rate of -0.5 days/yr. Negative correlations were found between preseason SPEI and SOS in 72.1% of the study region, and the SOS of grassland showed the least resistance to drought. Interannual variations of SOS were triggered by T_min more than by T_max in the North China Plain. Multiple regression analysis exhibited that a 1 °C increase in T_min would advance SOS by 10.5, 7.6, 2.9, 2.1 days for wheat, other crops, forests, and grasslands, indicating warming displayed greater effects on advancing the SOS of wheat. Considering the coupled effects of preseason drought and warming on spring phenology, future warming would trigger earlier spring green-up, while drought might slow the trend. Besides, nonlinear responses of SOS to preseason SPEI and T_min along the humidity gradient were discovered. This research provides a new reference for the biome-specific and nonlinear responses in phenology models to promote the understanding of phenology changes, contributing to ecosystem management under future global-change-type drought.

Uniforming spring phenology under non-uniform climate warming across latitude in China

Temperature is the primary factor controlling plant phenology. As temperature changes with latitude, leaf phenology in spring always shows a significant latitudinal pattern. However, under asymmetric warming at the low and high latitudes, the variability of the spring leaf phenology with latitude is becoming unclear. Based on the 23,094 observations of the leaf unfolding date (LUD) for woody species located in eastern China within latitudes 23-49°N, we analyzed the variability of LUD and its latitudinal sensitivity (S_lat, days °N^-1, expressed in delayed days per degree in latitude) during 1963-2008. The results showed an earlier LUD at the mid- (-2.2 days decade^-1) and high (-2.5 days decade^-1) latitude regions, while a stable LUD at the low-latitude regions during 1963-2008. However, the temperature sensitivity of LUD (S_T, days °C^-1, expressed in advanced days per degree in temperature) remained stable across the latitudes although a slight decreasing trend from 1963 to 2008. As a result, the non-uniform optimal preseason warming with latitude (T_lat, °C °N^-1, expressed in the increase of temperature per degree in latitude) decreased S_lat from 2.38 (days °N^-1) in 1963 to 1.55 (days °N^-1) in 2008. Further analyses indicated that the Growing Degree Hours (GDH) played a critical role in these processes, although the Chilling Hours (CH) showed significant variability after 1991. Our results provide evidence that the change in the balance of CH and GDH across latitude induced declining S_lat over the last 40 years in eastern China. Furthermore, it may continue under the future climate warming scenarios and ultimately has important consequences on the structure and function of ecosystems.

Effects of winter chilling vs. spring forcing on the spring phenology of trees in a cold region and a warmer reference region

Regions at high latitudes and high altitudes are undergoing a more pronounced winter warming than spring warming, and such asymmetric warming will affect chilling and forcing processes and thus the spring phenology of plants. We analyzed winter chilling and spring forcing accumulation in relation to the spring phenology of three tree species (Ulmus pumila, Populus simonii, and Syringa oblata) growing in a cold region (CR) compared with trees in a warmer reference region (WR), using the Dynamic Model and the Growing Degree Hour (GDH) model. We tested that forcing rather than chilling affects the spring phenology of trees in CR (hypothesis I), and that trees in CR have both lower mean chilling and forcing temperature and thus longer accumulation periods than trees in WR (hypothesis II). The modeling results confirmed that chilling and forcing occur simultaneously during the early spring when temperature gradually increases. In line with our hypotheses, forcing played a crucial role in spring phenology in CR, but chilling and forcing combined to determine spring phenology in WR. The temperature during the chilling and forcing periods was lower and the accumulation period started earlier and ended later in CR than in WR. Moreover, the chilling accumulation was broken into two periods by the low deep winter temperature in CR, and that interruption will be removed by future strong winter warming. Future asymmetric warming, with a stronger temperature increase in winter than in spring, could decrease the forcing accumulation effects and increase the chilling effects on the spring phenology of plants in CR. This change in the balance between chilling and forcing will lead to a shift in plant phenology, which will further have major impacts on biogeochemical cycles and on ecosystem functions and services.

Urban warming advances spring phenology but reduces the response of phenology to temperature in the conterminous United States

Urbanization has caused environmental changes, such as urban heat islands (UHIs), that affect terrestrial ecosystems. However, how and to what extent urbanization affects plant phenology remains relatively unexplored. Here, we investigated the changes in the satellite-derived start of season (SOS) and the covariation between SOS and temperature (R _T ) in 85 large cities across the conterminous United States for the period 2001-2014. We found that 1) the SOS came significantly earlier (6.1 ± 6.3 d) in 74 cities and R _T was significantly weaker (0.03 ± 0.07) in 43 cities when compared with their surrounding rural areas (P < 0.05); 2) the decreased magnitude in R _T mainly occurred in cities in relatively cold regions with an annual mean temperature <17.3 °C (e.g., Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania); and 3) the magnitude of urban-rural difference in both SOS and R _T was primarily correlated with the intensity of UHI. Simulations of two phenology models further suggested that more and faster heat accumulation contributed to the earlier SOS, while a decrease in required chilling led to a decline in R _T magnitude in urban areas. These findings provide observational evidence of a reduced covariation between temperature and SOS in major US cities, implying the response of spring phenology to warming conditions in nonurban environments may decline in the warming future.

Blooming under Mediterranean Climate: Estimating Cultivar-Specific Chill and Heat Requirements of Almond and Apple Trees Using a Statistical Approach

Climate change, and specifically global temperature increase, is expected to alter plant phenology. Temperate deciduous fruit trees have cultivar-specific chill and heat requirements to break dormancy and bloom. In this study, we aimed to estimate chill and heat requirements (in chill portions, CP, and growing degree hours, GDH, respectively) of 25 almond (30–36 years) and 12 apple (14–26 years) cultivars grown under a Mediterranean climate. The set included early and late blooming genotypes. Long-term phenological and temperature records were analyzed by means of partial least squares (PLS) regression. The main difference between early and late genotypes was chill requirement, ranging from 8.40 CP of early genotypes to 55.41 CP of extra-late genotypes. However, as chill requirements are quite easily attained by all almond cultivars in this study, year-to-year variations in actual blooming dates for each genotype are governed by variability of mean forcing temperatures. In contrast, different chill and heat combinations resulted in similar mean blooming dates for the studied apple cultivars. Mean temperature in both chilling and forcing phases determined their blooming time in the location studied. Overlaps and gaps between both phases were obtained. Despite some limitations, the PLS analysis has proven to be a useful tool to define both chilling and forcing phases. Nevertheless, since the delineation of these phases determine the total amount of CP and GDH, further efforts are needed to investigate the transition of these phases.

Winter Wheat Green-up Date Variation and its Diverse Response on the Hydrothermal Conditions over the North China Plain, Using MODIS Time-Series Data

Vegetation phenology plays a critical role in the dynamic response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. However, the relationship between the phenology of winter wheat and hydrothermal factors is inadequate, especially in typical agricultural areas. In this study, the possible effects of preseason climate changes on the green-up date (GUD) of winter wheat over the North China Plain (NCP) was investigated, using the MODIS EVI 8-day time-series data from 2000 to 2015, as well as the concurrent monthly mean temperature (Tm), mean maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) and total precipitation (TP) data. Firstly, we quantitatively identified the time lag effects of winter wheat GUD responses to different climatic factors; then, the major driving factors for winter wheat GUD were further explored by applying multiple linear regression models. The results showed that the time lag effects of winter wheat GUD response to climatic factors were site- and climatic parameters-dependent. Negative temperature effects with about a 3-month time lag dominated in most of the NCP, whereas positive temperature effects with a zero-month lag were most common in some of the southern parts. In comparison, total precipitation had a negative zero-month lag effect in the northern region, but two lagged months occurred in the south. Regarding the time lag effects, the explanation power of climatic factors improved relatively by up to 77%, and the explanation area increased by 41.20%. Additionally, change in winter wheat GUD was primarily determined by temperature rather than by TP, with a marked spatial heterogeneity of the Tmax and Tmin effect. Our results confirmed different time lag effects from different climatic factors on phenological processes in spring, and further suggested that both Tmax and Tmin should be considered to improve the performance of spring phenology models.

No trends in spring and autumn phenology during the global warming hiatus

Phenology plays a fundamental role in regulating photosynthesis, evapotranspiration, and surface energy fluxes and is sensitive to climate change. The global mean surface air temperature data indicate a global warming hiatus between 1998 and 2012, while its impacts on global phenology remains unclear. Here we use long-term satellite and FLUXNET records to examine phenology trends in the northern hemisphere before and during the warming hiatus. Our results based on the satellite record show that the phenology change rate slowed down during the warming hiatus. The analysis of the long-term FLUXNET measurements, mainly within the warming hiatus, shows that there were no widespread advancing (or delaying) trends in spring (or autumn) phenology. The lack of widespread phenology trends partly led to the lack of widespread trends in spring and autumn carbon fluxes. Our findings have significant implications for understanding the responses of phenology to climate change and the climate-carbon feedbacks.

A global warming hiatus occurred during 1998 and 2012 but its effects on phenology are unclear. Here the authors examine the trends in spring and autumn phenology in the northern hemisphere and the effects of the warming hiatus and show that phenology change rate in the northern hemisphere slowed down during the warming hiatus.

Comparison of budburst phenology trends and precision among participants in a citizen science program

Quantifying shifts in plant phenology in response to climate change represents an ongoing challenge, particularly in mountain ecosystems. Because climate change and phenological responses vary in space and time, we need long-term observations collected at a broad spatial scale. While data collection by volunteers is a promising approach to achieve this goal, one major concern with citizen science programs is the quality and reliability of data. Using a citizen science program (Phenoclim) carried out in the western European Alps, the goals of this study were to analyze (1) factors influencing participant retention rates, (2) the efficacy of a citizen science program for detecting temporal changes in the phenology of mountain trees, (3) differences in budburst date trends among different observer categories, and (4) the precision of trends quantified by different categories of participants. We used 12 years of annual tree phenology measurements recorded by volunteers (schools and private individuals) and professionals within the Phenoclim program. We found decadal-scale shifts in budburst date consistent with the results from other studies, including significant advances in budburst date for the common birch and European ash (- 4.0 and - 6.5 days per decade respectively). In addition, for three of six species, volunteers and professionals detected consistent directional trends. Finally, we show how differences in precision among the categories of participants are determined by the number of years of participation in the program, the number of sites surveyed, and the variability in trends among sites. Overall, our results suggest that participants with a wide range of backgrounds are capable of collecting data that can significantly contribute to the study of the impacts of climate change on mountain plant phenology.

Deciphering of the Genetic Control of Phenology, Yield, and Pellicle Color in Persian Walnut (Juglans regia L.)

Yield, nut quality, and ability to adapt to specific climate conditions, are all important factors to consider in the development and selection of new Persian walnut (Juglans regia L.) varieties. The genetic control of these traits is still unknown in walnut, limiting the accuracy and rapidity of releasing new cultivars for commercial use. We studied the genetic architecture of five traits crucial for either marketing (i.e., yield, lateral fruit-bearing, and pellicle color) or selection of individuals with specific phenology (i.e., leafing and harvest date). By combining over 30 years of phenotypic data with genetic profiles generated using the latest Axiom™ J. regia 700K SNP array, we were able to identify and confirm major loci for all these traits. In particular, we revealed that a genomic region at the beginning of Chr1 controls both leafing and harvest date in walnut, consistent with the observed strong phenotypical correlation between these traits, and including candidate genes involved in plant development, leaf formation, and cell division. In addition, a large genomic region on Chr11 that includes genes with a central role in flowering control and shoot meristem growth underlies both lateral fruit-bearing and yield in walnut. We observed a more complex genetic architecture for pellicle color, strongly influenced by the environment (h ² = 0.43). We identified two marker-trait associations on Chr6 and 7 for pellicle color, where genes encoding a UDP-glycosyltransferase or involved in the response to oxidation were found. In conclusion, by combining classical quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping and genome-wide association mapping, we deciphered, for the first time, the molecular pathways controlling walnut phenology, yield, lateral fruitfulness, and pellicle color. Our findings represent a further milestone in the transition from conventional to genome-assisted breeding in Persian walnut.

Changes in temperature sensitivity of spring phenology with recent climate warming in Switzerland are related to shifts of the preseason

The spring phenology of plants in temperate regions strongly responds to spring temperatures. Climate warming has caused substantial phenological advances in the past, but trends to be expected in the future are uncertain. A simple indicator is temperature sensitivity, the phenological advance statistically associated with a 1°C warmer mean temperature during the "preseason", defined as the most temperature-sensitive period preceding the phenological event. Recent analyses of phenological records have shown a decline in temperature sensitivity of leaf unfolding, but underlying mechanisms were not clear. Here, we propose that climate warming can reduce temperature sensitivity simply by reducing the length of the preseason due to faster bud development during this time period, unless the entire preseason shifts forward so that its temperature does not change. We derive these predictions theoretically from the widely used "thermal time model" for bud development and test them using data for 19 phenological events recorded in 1970-2012 at 108 stations spanning a 1600 m altitudinal range in Switzerland. We consider how temperature sensitivity, preseason start, preseason length and preseason temperature change (i) with altitude, (ii) between the periods 1970-1987 and 1995-2012, which differed mainly in spring temperatures, and (iii) between two non-consecutive sets of 18 years that differed mainly in winter temperatures. On average, temperature sensitivity increased with altitude (colder climate) and was reduced in years with warmer springs, but not in years with warmer winters. These trends also varied among species. Decreasing temperature sensitivity in warmer springs was associated with a limited forward shift of preseason start, higher temperatures during the preseason and reduced preseason length, but not with reduced winter chilling. Our results imply that declining temperature sensitivity can result directly from spring warming and does not necessarily indicate altered physiological responses or stronger constraints such as reduced winter chilling.

Increased exposure to chilling advances the time to budburst in North American tree species

The phenology of trees is highly susceptible to changing global temperatures. Leaf budburst advances with increasing spring temperatures, but can also be delayed when warmer winters reduce chilling exposure. Results from long-term observations show that increasing temperatures have triggered advanced budburst in the past decades, but some studies also show that budburst advance has slowed recently. Here, we conducted an experiment with five temperate deciduous tree species (Acer rubrum L., Larix laricina (Du Rois) K. Koch, Populus tremuloides Michx., Quercus ellipsoidalis E. j. Hill, Betula papyrifera Marsh.) and one invasive species (Rhamnus cathartica L.) in Minnesota, USA, to assess the impact of chilling on the timing of leaf budburst. We collected twigs over two winter seasons (2011/2012 and 2012/2013) on a biweekly basis and exposed them to spring-like temperatures of 21 °C/16 °C day and night, long day photoperiod (16 h). We found a significant relationship of advanced budbreak with increased chilling for all species tested (P < 0.001) and significant differences in the timing to budburst among all species (P < 0.001). Acer rubrum responded strongly to chilling, showing a very steep linear decline in days to budburst with increased exposure to chilling. On the other end of the spectrum, L. laricina responded least to increases in chilling. These results suggest that rising global temperatures will likely have diverse impacts on tree species with potential implications for species interactions such as competition.

Automated processing of webcam images for phenological classification

Along with the global climate change, there is an increasing interest for its effect on phenological patterns such as start and end of the growing season. Scientific digital webcams are used for this purpose taking every day one or more images from the same natural motive showing for example trees or grassland sites. To derive phenological patterns from the webcam images, regions of interest are manually defined on these images by an expert and subsequently a time series of percentage greenness is derived and analyzed with respect to structural changes. While this standard approach leads to satisfying results and allows to determine dates of phenological change points, it is associated with a considerable amount of manual work and is therefore constrained to a limited number of webcams only. In particular, this forbids to apply the phenological analysis to a large network of publicly accessible webcams in order to capture spatial phenological variation. In order to be able to scale up the analysis to several hundreds or thousands of webcams, we propose and evaluate two automated alternatives for the definition of regions of interest, allowing for efficient analyses of webcam images. A semi-supervised approach selects pixels based on the correlation of the pixels' time series of percentage greenness with a few prototype pixels. An unsupervised approach clusters pixels based on scores of a singular value decomposition. We show for a scientific webcam that the resulting regions of interest are at least as informative as those chosen by an expert with the advantage that no manual action is required. Additionally, we show that the methods can even be applied to publicly available webcams accessed via the internet yielding interesting partitions of the analyzed images. Finally, we show that the methods are suitable for the intended big data applications by analyzing 13988 webcams from the AMOS database. All developed methods are implemented in the statistical software package R and publicly available in the R package phenofun. Executable example code is provided as supplementary material.

The dynamics of the Corylus, Alnus, and Betula pollen seasons in the context of climate change (SW Poland)

The changes in the main features of early spring tree or shrub pollen seasons are important due to the significant impact on the occurrence of pollen-related allergy symptoms. This study shows the results of pollen monitoring for a period of eleven years (2003-2013) using a Burkard volumetric spore trap. The main characteristics of the hazel, alder, and birch pollination season were studied in Wrocław (SW Poland). The statistical analyses do not show a significant trend of annual total pollen count or shift in timing of the pollen season in the period of analysis. The research confirms a great impact (at the statistically significant level of 0.05) of the heat resources on pollination season (the value of the correlation coefficient ranges from -0.63 up to -0.87). Meteorological variables (e.g. sum of temperature for selected period) were compiled to 5-year running means to examine trends. Changes in the pollination period features due to climate change including both timing and intensity of pollen productivity, would have important consequences for allergy sufferers.

A collection of European sweet cherry phenology data for assessing climate change

Professional and scientific networks built around the production of sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) led to the collection of phenology data for a wide range of cultivars grown in experimental sites characterized by highly contrasted climatic conditions. We present a dataset of flowering and maturity dates, recorded each year for one tree when available, or the average of several trees for each cultivar, over a period of 37 years (1978-2015). Such a dataset is extremely valuable for characterizing the phenological response to climate change, and the plasticity of the different cultivars' behaviour under different environmental conditions. In addition, this dataset will support the development of predictive models for sweet cherry phenology exploitable at the continental scale, and will help anticipate breeding strategies in order to maintain and improve sweet cherry production in Europe.

Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas-fir

Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm temperatures ('forcing') typically triggers growth initiation, but many trees also require exposure to cool temperatures ('chilling') while dormant to readily initiate growth in the spring. If warming increases forcing and decreases chilling, climate change could maintain, advance or delay growth initiation phenology relative to the onset of favorable conditions. We modeled the timing of height- and diameter-growth initiation in coast Douglas-fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree in western North America) to determine whether changes in phenology are likely to track changes in climate using data from field-based and controlled-environment studies, which included conditions warmer than those currently experienced in the tree's range. For high latitude and elevation portions of the tree's range, our models predicted that warming will lead to earlier growth initiation and allow trees to track changes in the onset of the warm but still moist conditions that favor growth, generally without substantially greater exposure to frost. In contrast, toward lower latitude and elevation range limits, the models predicted that warming will lead to delayed growth initiation relative to changes in climate due to reduced chilling, with trees failing to capture favorable conditions in the earlier parts of the spring. This maladaptive response to climate change was more prevalent for diameter-growth initiation than height-growth initiation. The decoupling of growth initiation with the onset of favorable climatic conditions could reduce the resilience of coast Douglas-fir to climate change at the warm edges of its distribution.

Simulation of forest tree species' bud burst dates for different climate scenarios: chilling requirements and photo-period may limit bud burst advancement

This study investigates whether the assumed increase of winter and spring temperatures is depicted by phenological models in correspondingly earlier bud burst (BB) dates. Some studies assume that rising temperatures lead to an earlier BB, but even later BB has been detected. The phenological model PIM (promoter-inhibitor-model) fitted to the extensive phenological database of the German Weather Service was driven by several climate scenarios. This model accounts for the complicated mechanistic interactions between chilling requirements, temperature and photo-period. It predicts BB with a r ² between 0.41 and 0.62 and a RMSE of around 1 week, depending on species. Parameter sensitivities depict species dependent interactions between growth and chilling requirements as well as photo-period. A mean trend to earlier BB was revealed for the period 2002- 2100, varying between -0.05 and -0.11 days per year, depending on species. These trends are lower than for the period 1951- 2009. Within climate scenario period, trends are decreasing for beech and chestnut, stagnating for birch and increasing for oak. Results suggest that not fulfilled chilling requirements accompanied by an increasing dependency on photo-period potentially limit future BB advancement. The combination of a powerful phenological model, a large scale phenological database and several climate scenarios, offers new insights into the mechanistic comprehension of spring phenology.

Differentiated dynamics of bud dormancy and growth in temperate fruit trees relating to bud phenology adaptation, the case of apple and almond trees

Few studies have focused on the characterization of bud dormancy and growth dynamics for temperate fruit species in temperate and mild cropping areas, although this is an appropriate framework to anticipate phenology adaptation facing future warming contexts which would potentially combine chill declines and heat increases. To examine this issue, two experimental approaches and field observations were used for high- and low-chill apple cultivars in temperate climate of southern France and in mild climates of northern Morocco and southern Brazil. Low-chill almond cultivars offered an additional relevant plant material for comparison with apple in northern Morocco. Divergent patterns of dormancy and growth dynamics were clearly found in apple tree between southern France and southern Brazil. Divergences were less pronounced between France and Morocco. A global view outlined main differences in the dormancy chronology and intensity, the transition between endordormancy and ecodormancy and the duration of ecodormancy. A key role of bud rehydration in the transition period was shown. High-chill cultivars would be submitted in mild conditions to heterogeneous rehydration capacities linked to insufficient chill fulfillment and excessive forcing linked to high temperatures. This would favor bud competitions and consequently excessive flowering durations and weak flowering. Low chilling requirements in apple and almond would conversely confer biological capacities to tolerate superficial dormancy and abrupt transition from endordormancy to ecodormancy without important heterogeneous rehydration states within buds. It may also assume that low-chill cultivars can also tolerate high temperatures during ecodormancy as well as extended flowering durations.

Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately in the future? The unrevealed hurdle of endodormancy break

The onset of the growing season of trees has been earlier by 2.3 days per decade during the last 40 years in temperate Europe because of global warming. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is, however, not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud endodormancy, and, on the other hand, higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cell growth afterward. Different process-based models have been developed in the last decades to predict the date of budbreak of woody species. They predict that global warming should delay or compromise endodormancy break at the species equatorward range limits leading to a delay or even impossibility to flower or set new leaves. These models are classically parameterized with flowering or budbreak dates only, with no information on the endodormancy break date because this information is very scarce. Here, we evaluated the efficiency of a set of phenological models to accurately predict the endodormancy break dates of three fruit trees. Our results show that models calibrated solely with budbreak dates usually do not accurately predict the endodormancy break date. Providing endodormancy break date for the model parameterization results in much more accurate prediction of this latter, with, however, a higher error than that on budbreak dates. Most importantly, we show that models not calibrated with endodormancy break dates can generate large discrepancies in forecasted budbreak dates when using climate scenarios as compared to models calibrated with endodormancy break dates. This discrepancy increases with mean annual temperature and is therefore the strongest after 2050 in the southernmost regions. Our results claim for the urgent need of massive measurements of endodormancy break dates in forest and fruit trees to yield more robust projections of phenological changes in a near future.

Can we detect a nonlinear response to temperature in European plant phenology?

Over a large temperature range, the statistical association between spring phenology and temperature is often regarded and treated as a linear function. There are suggestions that a sigmoidal relationship with definite upper and lower limits to leaf unfolding and flowering onset dates might be more realistic. We utilised European plant phenological records provided by the European phenology database PEP725 and gridded monthly mean temperature data for 1951-2012 calculated from the ENSEMBLES data set E-OBS (version 7.0). We analysed 568,456 observations of ten spring flowering or leafing phenophases derived from 3657 stations in 22 European countries in order to detect possible nonlinear responses to temperature. Linear response rates averaged for all stations ranged between -7.7 (flowering of hazel) and -2.7 days °C^-1 (leaf unfolding of beech and oak). A lower sensitivity at the cooler end of the temperature range was detected for most phenophases. However, a similar lower sensitivity at the warmer end was not that evident. For only ∼14 % of the station time series (where a comparison between linear and nonlinear model was possible), nonlinear models described the relationship significantly better than linear models. Although in most cases simple linear models might be still sufficient to predict future changes, this linear relationship between phenology and temperature might not be appropriate when incorporating phenological data of very cold (and possibly very warm) environments. For these cases, extrapolations on the basis of linear models would introduce uncertainty in expected ecosystem changes.

Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels

Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average).

Beyond arctic and alpine: the influence of winter climate on temperate ecosystems

Winter climate is expected to change under future climate scenarios, yet the majority of winter ecology research is focused in cold-climate ecosystems. In many temperate systems, it is unclear how winter climate relates to biotic responses during the growing season. The objective of this study was to examine how winter weather relates to plant and animal communities in a variety of terrestrial ecosystems ranging from warm deserts to alpine tundra. Specifically, we examined the association between winter weather and plant phenology, plant species richness, consumer abundance, and consumer richness in 11 terrestrial ecosystems associated with the U.S. Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network. To varying degrees, winter precipitation and temperature were correlated with all biotic response variables. Bud break was tightly aligned with end of winter temperatures. For half the sites, winter weather was a better predictor of plant species richness than growing season weather. Warmer winters were correlated with lower consumer abundances in both temperate and alpine systems. Our findings suggest winter weather may have a strong influence on biotic activity during the growing season and should be considered in future studies investigating the effects of climate change on both alpine and temperate systems.

Differentiated Responses of Apple Tree Floral Phenology to Global Warming in Contrasting Climatic Regions

The responses of flowering phenology to temperature increases in temperate fruit trees have rarely been investigated in contrasting climatic regions. This is an appropriate framework for highlighting varying responses to diverse warming contexts, which would potentially combine chill accumulation (CA) declines and heat accumulation (HA) increases. To examine this issue, a data set was constituted in apple tree from flowering dates collected for two phenological stages of three cultivars in seven climate-contrasting temperate regions of Western Europe and in three mild regions, one in Northern Morocco and two in Southern Brazil. Multiple change-point models were applied to flowering date series, as well as to corresponding series of mean temperature during two successive periods, respectively determining for the fulfillment of chill and heat requirements. A new overview in space and time of flowering date changes was provided in apple tree highlighting not only flowering date advances as in previous studies but also stationary flowering date series. At global scale, differentiated flowering time patterns result from varying interactions between contrasting thermal determinisms of flowering dates and contrasting warming contexts. This may explain flowering date advances in most of European regions and in Morocco vs. stationary flowering date series in the Brazilian regions. A notable exception in Europe was found in the French Mediterranean region where the flowering date series was stationary. While the flowering duration series were stationary whatever the region, the flowering durations were far longer in mild regions compared to temperate regions. Our findings suggest a new warming vulnerability in temperate Mediterranean regions, which could shift toward responding more to chill decline and consequently experience late and extended flowering under future warming scenarios.

Does flower phenology mirror the slowdown of global warming?

Although recent global warming trends in air temperature are not as pronounced as those observed only one decade ago, global mean temperature is still at a very high level. Does plant phenology - which is believed to be a suitable indicator of climate change - respond in a similar way, that is, does it still mirror recent temperature variations? We explored in detail long-term flowering onset dates of snowdrop, cherry, and lime tree and relevant spring temperatures at three sites in Germany (1901-2012) using the Bayesian multiple change-point approach. We investigated whether mean spring temperature changes were amplified or slowed down in the past decade and how plant phenology responded to the most recent temperature changes. Incorporating records with different end points (i.e., 2002 and 2012), we compared differences in trends and inferred possible differences caused by extrapolating phenological and meteorological data. The new multiple-change point approach is characterized by an enhanced structure and greater flexibility compared to the one change point model. However, the highest model probabilities for phenological (meteorological) records were still obtained for the one change point (linear) model. Marked warming trends in the recent decade were only revealed for mean temperatures of March to May, here better described with one or two change point models. In the majority of cases analyzed, changes in temperatures were well mirrored by phenological changes. However, temperatures in March to May were linked to less strongly advancing onset dates for lime tree flowering during the period 1901-2012, pointing to the likely influence of photoperiodic constraints or unfulfilled chilling requirements. Due to the slowdown of temperature increase, analyses conducted on records ending in 2002 demonstrated distinct differences when compared with records ending in 2012. Extrapolation of trends could therefore (along with the choice of the statistical method) lead to distinctly different results and most recent data should be integrated in order not to over- or underestimate future phenological changes.

Nut crop yield records show that budbreak-based chilling requirements may not reflect yield decline chill thresholds

Warming winters due to climate change may critically affect temperate tree species. Insufficiently cold winters are thought to result in fewer viable flower buds and the subsequent development of fewer fruits or nuts, decreasing the yield of an orchard or fecundity of a species. The best existing approximation for a threshold of sufficient cold accumulation, the "chilling requirement" of a species or variety, has been quantified by manipulating or modeling the conditions that result in dormant bud breaking. However, the physiological processes that affect budbreak are not the same as those that determine yield. This study sought to test whether budbreak-based chilling thresholds can reasonably approximate the thresholds that affect yield, particularly regarding the potential impacts of climate change on temperate tree crop yields. County-wide yield records for almond (Prunus dulcis), pistachio (Pistacia vera), and walnut (Juglans regia) in the Central Valley of California were compared with 50 years of weather records. Bayesian nonparametric function estimation was used to model yield potentials at varying amounts of chill accumulation. In almonds, average yields occurred when chill accumulation was close to the budbreak-based chilling requirement. However, in the other two crops, pistachios and walnuts, the best previous estimate of the budbreak-based chilling requirements was 19-32 % higher than the chilling accumulations associated with average or above average yields. This research indicates that physiological processes beyond requirements for budbreak should be considered when estimating chill accumulation thresholds of yield decline and potential impacts of climate change.

Leaf onset in the northern hemisphere triggered by daytime temperature

Recent warming significantly advanced leaf onset in the northern hemisphere. This signal cannot be accurately reproduced by current models parameterized by daily mean temperature (T_mean). Here using in situ observations of leaf unfolding dates (LUDs) in Europe and the United States, we show that the interannual anomalies of LUD during 1982–2011 are triggered by daytime (T_max) more than by nighttime temperature (T_min). Furthermore, an increase of 1 °C in T_max would advance LUD by 4.7 days in Europe and 4.3 days in the United States, more than the conventional temperature sensitivity estimated from T_mean. The triggering role of T_max, rather than the T_min or T_mean variable, is also supported by analysis of the large-scale patterns of satellite-derived vegetation green-up in spring in the northern hemisphere (>30°N). Our results suggest a new conceptual framework of leaf onset using daytime temperature to improve the performance of phenology modules in current Earth system models.

Recent warming has significantly advanced leaf onset in the northern hemisphere. Here, the authors show asymmetric effects of daytime and nighttime temperature change on the timing of leaf onset.

Introducing a sensor to measure budburst and its environmental drivers

Budburst is a key adaptive trait that can help us understand how plants respond to a changing climate from the molecular to landscape scale. Despite this, acquisition of budburst data is constrained by a lack of information at the plant scale on the environmental stimuli associated with the release of bud dormancy. Additionally, to date, little effort has been devoted to phenotyping plants in natural populations due to the challenge of accounting for the effect of environmental variation. Nonetheless, natural selection operates on natural populations, and investigation of adaptive phenotypes in situ is warranted and can validate results from controlled laboratory experiments. To identify genomic effects on individual plant phenotypes in nature, environmental drivers must be concurrently measured, and characterized. Here, we designed and evaluated a sensor to meet these requirements for temperate woody plants. It was designed for use on a tree branch to measure the timing of budburst together with its key environmental drivers; temperature, and photoperiod. Specifically, we evaluated the sensor through independent corroboration with time-lapse photography and a suite of environmental sampling instruments. We also tested whether the presence of the device on a branch influenced the timing of budburst. Our results indicated the following: the temperatures measured by the budburst sensor's digital thermometer closely approximated the temperatures measured using a thermocouple touching plant tissue; the photoperiod detector measured ambient light with the same accuracy as did time lapse photography; the budburst sensor accurately detected the timing of budburst; and the sensor itself did not influence the budburst timing of Populus clones. Among other potential applications, future use of the sensor may provide plant phenotyping at the landscape level for integration with landscape genomics.

The impact of 850,000 years of climate changes on the structure and dynamics of mammal food webs

Most evidence of climate change impacts on food webs comes from modern studies and little is known about how ancient food webs have responded to climate changes in the past. Here, we integrate fossil evidence from 71 fossil sites, body-size relationships and actualism to reconstruct food webs for six large mammal communities that inhabited the Iberian Peninsula at different times during the Quaternary. We quantify the long-term dynamics of these food webs and study how their structure changed across the Quaternary, a period for which fossil data and climate changes are well known. Extinction, immigration and turnover rates were correlated with climate changes in the last 850 kyr. Yet, we find differences in the dynamics and structural properties of Pleistocene versus Holocene mammal communities that are not associated with glacial-interglacial cycles. Although all Quaternary mammal food webs were highly nested and robust to secondary extinctions, general food web properties changed in the Holocene. These results highlight the ability of communities to re-organize with the arrival of phylogenetically similar species without major structural changes, and the impact of climate change and super-generalist species (humans) on Iberian Holocene mammal communities.

Herbarium specimens show contrasting phenological responses to Himalayan climate

Responses by flowering plants to climate change are complex and only beginning to be understood. Through analyses of 10,295 herbarium specimens of Himalayan Rhododendron collected by plant hunters and botanists since 1884, we were able to separate these responses into significant components. We found a lack of directional change in mean flowering time over the past 45 y of rapid warming. However, over the full 125 y of collections, mean flowering time shows a significant response to year-to-year changes in temperature, and this response varies with season of warming. Mean flowering advances with annual warming (2.27 d earlier per 1 °C warming), and also is delayed with fall warming (2.54 d later per 1 °C warming). Annual warming may advance flowering through positive effects on overwintering bud formation, whereas fall warming may delay flowering through an impact on chilling requirements. The lack of a directional response suggests that contrasting phenological responses to temperature changes may obscure temperature sensitivity in plants. By drawing on large collections from multiple herbaria, made over more than a century, we show how these data may inform studies even of remote localities, and we highlight the increasing value of these and other natural history collections in understanding long-term change.

The influence of local spring temperature variance on temperature sensitivity of spring phenology

The impact of climate warming on the advancement of plant spring phenology has been heavily investigated over the last decade and there exists great variability among plants in their phenological sensitivity to temperature. However, few studies have explicitly linked phenological sensitivity to local climate variance. Here, we set out to test the hypothesis that the strength of phenological sensitivity declines with increased local spring temperature variance, by synthesizing results across ground observations. We assemble ground-based long-term (20-50 years) spring phenology database (PEP725 database) and the corresponding climate dataset. We find a prevalent decline in the strength of phenological sensitivity with increasing local spring temperature variance at the species level from ground observations. It suggests that plants might be less likely to track climatic warming at locations with larger local spring temperature variance. This might be related to the possibility that the frost risk could be higher in a larger local spring temperature variance and plants adapt to avoid this risk by relying more on other cues (e.g., high chill requirements, photoperiod) for spring phenology, thus suppressing phenological responses to spring warming. This study illuminates that local spring temperature variance is an understudied source in the study of phenological sensitivity and highlight the necessity of incorporating this factor to improve the predictability of plant responses to anthropogenic climate change in future studies.

Shifting and extension of phenological periods with increasing temperature along elevational transects in southern Bavaria

The impact of global warming on phenology has been widely studied, and almost consistently advancing spring events have been reported. Especially in alpine regions, an extraordinary rapid warming has been observed in the last decades. However, little is known about phenological phases over the whole vegetation period at high elevations. We observed 12 phenological phases of seven tree species and measured air temperature at 42 sites along four transects of about 1000 m elevational range in the years 2010 and 2011 near Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany. Site- and species-specific onset dates for the phenological phases were determined and related to elevation, temperature lapse rates and site-specific temperature sums. Increasing temperatures induced advanced spring and delayed autumn phases, in which both yielded similar magnitudes. Delayed leaf senescence could therefore have been underestimated until now in extending the vegetation period. Not only the vegetation period, but also phenological periods extended with increasing temperature. Moreover, sensitivity to elevation and temperature strongly depends on the specific phenological phase. Differences between species and groups of species (deciduous, evergreen, high elevation) were found in onset dates, phenological response rates and also in the effect of chilling and forcing temperatures. Increased chilling days highly reduced forcing temperature requirements for deciduous trees, but less for evergreen trees. The problem of shifted species associations and phenological mismatches due to species-specific responses to increasing temperature is a recent topic in ecological research. Therefore, we consider our findings from this novel, dense observation network in an alpine area of particular importance to deepen knowledge on phenological responses to climate change.