Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages.

METHODS

Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0-100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target-1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023-we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023.

FINDINGS

Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2-47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7-61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9-3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010-2019 relative to 1990-2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6-421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0-3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5-1040·3]) residing in south Asia.

INTERPRETATION

The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people-the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close-or how far-all populations are in benefiting from UHC.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries.

METHODS

We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

FINDINGS

In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505).

INTERPRETATION

Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Burden of disability due to musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders

This chapter summarises the global and regional prevalence, disability (Years Lived with Disability (YLDs)) and overall burden (Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs)) and costs for the common musculoskeletal disorders including low back and neck pain, hip and knee osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, gout, and a remaining combined group of other MSK conditions. The contribution of the role of pain in disability burden is introduced. Trends over time and predictions of increasing MSK disability with demographic changes are addressed and the particular challenges facing the developing world are highlighted.

Estimation of lean body weight in older women with hip fracture

OBJECTIVE

Lean body weight (LBW) decreases with age while total body fat increases, resulting in altered drug pharmacokinetics. A semi-mechanistic equation estimating LBW using height, weight and sex has been developed for potential use across a wide range of body compositions. The aim of this study was to determine the ability of the LBW equation to estimate dual energy x-ray absorptiometry-derived fat free mass (FFM(DXA)) in a population of older women with recent hip fracture.

METHODS

Baseline, four and 12 month data obtained from 23 women enrolled in the Sarcopenia and Hip Fracture study were pooled to give 58 measurements. LBW was estimated using the equation: LBW (kg) = (9270 x Wt) / (8780 + (244 x BMI)). Body composition was classified as: 'normal' (BMI <25kg/m(2) and not sarcopenic), 'overweight-obese' (BMI >25kg/m(2) and not sarcopenic), 'sarcopenic' (sarcopenic and BMI <25kg/m(2)), or 'sarcopenic-obese' (sarcopenic and BMI >25kg/m(2)). The ability of the LBW equation to predict FFMDXA was determined graphically using Bland-Altman plots and quantitatively using the method of Sheiner and Beal.

RESULTS

The mean ± SD age of female participants women was 83±7 years (n=23). Sarcopenia was frequently observed (65.2%). Bland-Altman plots demonstrated an underestimation by the LBW equation compared to FFMDXA. The bias (95% CI) and precision (95% CI) calculated using the method of Sheiner and Beal was 0.5kg (-0.7, 1.66kg) and 4.4kg (-3.7, 12.4kg) respectively for pooled data.

CONCLUSION

This equation can be used to easily calculate LBW. When compared to FFMDXA, the LBW equation resulted in a small underestimation on average in this population of women with recent hip fracture. The degree of bias may not be clinically important although further studies of larger heterogeneous cohorts are needed to investigate and potentially improve the accuracy of this predictive equation in larger clinical cohorts.

Epidemiology of gout: an update

Gout is the most common inflammatory joint disease in men, characterised by formation of monosodium urate (MSU) crystals in the synovial fluid of joints and in other tissues. The epidemiology of gout provides us with the understanding of the disease distribution and its determinants. In an attempt to update the knowledge on the topic, more recent research reports on the descriptive epidemiology of gout are reviewed in this article. The review describes clinical characteristics and case definitions of gout, including the Rome and New York diagnosis criteria of gout, '1977 American Rheumatism Association (ARA) criteria' and the 10 key propositions of the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) recommendations. Gout incidence, prevalence, morbidity and mortality, geographical variation of the disease, relevant risk factors for both the occurrence and outcome of gout and trends of the disease over time are then described. Difficulties in obtaining the information and data reported are also discussed.

Osteoporosis and fragility fractures

The prevalence of osteoporosis is expected to increase with the ageing of the world's population. This article reviews the epidemiology, risk factors and health burden of osteoporosis. In the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2005, osteoporosis is studied as a risk factor for fracture by considering the bone-mineral-density (BMD) measurement as the continuous exposure variable. We have performed a systematic review seeking population-based studies with BMD data measured by dual-X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). The femoral neck was selected as the unique location and all values were converted into Hologic(®) to enable inclusion of worldwide data for analysis. Provisional results on mean BMD values for different world regions are shown in age breakdowns for males and females 50 years or over, as well as mean T-scores using the young, white, female reference of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III. Results show remarkable geographical differences and a time trend towards improvement of the BMD values in Asian and European populations.

Seronegative spondyloarthritis

Seronegative spondyloarthritis (SpA) is a group of inflammatory rheumatic diseases with common clinical and aetiological features, including axial and peripheral inflammatory arthritis, enthesitis, extra-articular manifestations and a close link to the presence of the human leucocyte antigen (HLA)-B27 epitope. Ankylosing spondylitis is the most common of the SpA diseases, with prevalence in the Caucasian population ranging between 0.15% and 1.8%, generally higher in populations with a higher background prevalence of HLA-B27 positivity. Incidence has been estimated between 0.49 (Japan) and 10 (Norway) per 100,000. The prevalence of psoriatic arthritis ranges from 0.02% to 0.2%, and the incidence in the normal population is 7.2 per 100,000 per year. In patients with existing psoriasis, the prevalence of psoriatic arthritis rises to 6-42%. The prevalence of reactive arthritis is dependent on the background incidence of gastrointestinal or genitourinary infections; incidence has been described as up to 30-40 per 100,000. SpA symptoms are present in up to 50% of patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

Effects of high-intensity progressive resistance training and targeted multidisciplinary treatment of frailty on mortality and nursing home admissions after hip fracture: a randomized controlled trial

RATIONALE

Excess mortality and residual disability are common after hip fracture.

HYPOTHESIS

Twelve months of high-intensity weight-lifting exercise and targeted multidisciplinary interventions will result in lower mortality, nursing home admissions, and disability compared with usual care after hip fracture.

DESIGN

Randomized, controlled, parallel-group superiority study.

SETTING

Outpatient clinic

PARTICIPANTS

Patients (n = 124) admitted to public hospital for surgical repair of hip fracture between 2003 and 2007.

INTERVENTION

Twelve months of geriatrician-supervised high-intensity weight-lifting exercise and targeted treatment of balance, osteoporosis, nutrition, vitamin D/calcium, depression, cognition, vision, home safety, polypharmacy, hip protectors, self-efficacy, and social support.

OUTCOMES

Functional independence: mortality, nursing home admissions, basic and instrumental activities of daily living (ADLs/IADLs), and assistive device utilization.

RESULTS

Risk of death was reduced by 81% (age-adjusted OR [95% CI] = 0.19 [0.04-0.91]; P < .04) in the HIPFIT group (n = 4) compared with usual care controls (n = 8). Nursing home admissions were reduced by 84% (age-adjusted OR [95% CI] = 0.16 [0.04-0.64]; P < .01) in the experimental group (n = 5) compared with controls (n = 12). Basic ADLs declined less (P < .0001) and assistive device use was significantly lower at 12 months (P = .02) in the intervention group compared with controls. The targeted improvements in upper body strength, nutrition, depressive symptoms, vision, balance, cognition, self-efficacy, and habitual activity level were all related to ADL improvements (P < .0001-.02), and improvements in basic ADLs, vision, and walking endurance were associated with reduced nursing home use (P < .0001-.05).

CONCLUSION

The HIPFIT intervention reduced mortality, nursing home admissions, and ADL dependency compared with usual care.

Differences and similarities between ankylosing spondylitis and rheumatoid arthritis: epidemiology

Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are among the most common rheumatic diseases. The epidemiology of these diseases highlights both similarities and differences. Prevalence rates of approximately 0.2-1% have been reported for the diseases, but the rate for AS is increasing while RA is declining. Geographical variations exist in the incidence and prevalence of the diseases, although the majority of studies have been conducted in northern Europe and North America. AS is a predominantly a male disorder, whereas more females are affected by RA. Both diseases result in increased disability, reduced work productivity, and increased mortality rates. These similarities and differences may give us important clues as to the aetiology of both diseases.