Comparative evaluation of intensified short course regimen and standard regimen for adults TB meningitis: a protocol for an open label, multi-center, parallel arms, randomized controlled superiority trial (INSHORT trial)

BACKGROUND

Despite several incremental improvements in the management of tuberculous meningitis (TBM), the mortality rates remain high. In spite of national and international guidelines, variation in the choice, dose, and duration of drugs exist between countries and clinicians. We propose to evaluate a shorter and more effective regimen containing agents with augmented intracerebral drug exposure and anti-inflammatory approaches to improve disability-free survival among patients with TBM. Our strategy incorporates the various developments in the field of TBM over the last two decades and only few trials have evaluated a composite of these strategies in the overall outcomes of TBM.

METHODS

An open label, parallel arms, randomized controlled superiority trial will be conducted among 372 participants across 6 sites in India. Eligible participants will be randomly allocated in 1:1:1 ratio into one of the three arms. The intervention arm consists of 2 months of high-dose rifampicin (25 mg/kg), moxifloxacin (400 mg), pyrazinamide, isoniazid, aspirin (150 mg), and steroids followed by rifampicin, isoniazid, and pyrazinamide for 4 months. The second intervention arm includes all the drugs as per the first arm except aspirin and the patients in the control arm will receive treatment according to the National TB Elimination Program guidelines. All participants will be followed up for 1 year after the treatment.  DISCUSSION: Current WHO regimens have agents with poor central nervous system drug exposure and is too long. It does not reflect the accumulating evidence in the field. We propose a comprehensive clinical trial incorporating the emerging evidence accrued over the last two decades to shorten the duration and improve the treatment outcomes. This multi-centric trial may generate crucial evidence with policy and practice implications in the treatment of TBM.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinical Trial Registry India CTRI/2023/05/053314. Registered on 31 May 2023 ( https://ctri.nic.in/Clinicaltrials/pmaindet2.php?EncHid=ODYzMzg=&Enc=&userName=CTRI/2023/05/053314 ).

CLINICALTRIALS

gov NCT05917340. Registered on 6 August 2023 ( https://classic.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov/ct2/show/NCT05917340 ).

PROTOCOL VERSION

Version 1.3 dated 12 July 2023.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effectiveness of Adjunctive High-Dose Infliximab Therapy to Improve Disability-Free Survival Among Patients With Severe Central Nervous System Tuberculosis: A Matched Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Few treatment options exist for patients with severe central nervous system (CNS) tuberculosis (TB) worsening due to inflammatory lesions, despite optimal antitubercular therapy (ATT) and steroids. Data regarding the efficacy and safety of infliximab in these patients are sparse.

METHODS

We performed a matched retrospective cohort study based on Medical Research Council (MRC) grading system and modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores comparing 2 groups of adults with CNS TB. Cohort A received at least 1 dose of infliximab after optimal ATT and steroids between March 2019 and July 2022. Cohort B received only ATT and steroids. Disability-free survival (mRS score ≤2) at 6 months was the primary outcome.

RESULTS

Baseline MRC grades and mRS scores were similar between the cohorts. Median duration before initiation of infliximab therapy from start of ATT and steroids was 6 (IQR: 3.7-13) months and for neurological deficits was 4 (IQR: 2-6.2) months. Indications for infliximab were symptomatic tuberculomas (20/30; 66.7%), spinal cord involvement with paraparesis (8/30; 26.7%), and optochiasmatic arachnoiditis (3/30; 10%), worsening despite adequate ATT and steroids. Severe disability (5/30 [16.7%] and 21/60 [35%]) and all-cause mortality (2/30 [6.7%] and 13/60 [21.7%]) at 6 months were lower in cohort A versus cohort B, respectively. In the combined study population, only exposure to infliximab was positively associated (aRR: 6.2; 95% CI: 2.18-17.83; P = .001) with disability-free survival at 6 months. There were no clear infliximab-related side effects noted.

CONCLUSIONS

Infliximab may be an effective and safe adjunctive strategy among severely disabled patients with CNS TB not improving despite optimal ATT and steroids. Adequately powered phase 3 clinical trials are required to confirm these early findings.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effectiveness and safety of Levofloxacin containing regimen in the treatment of Isoniazid mono-resistant pulmonary Tuberculosis: a systematic review

Background

We aimed to determine the effectiveness and safety of the Levofloxacin-containing regimen that the World Health Organization is currently recommending for the treatment of Isoniazid mono-resistant pulmonary Tuberculosis.

Methods

Our eligible criteria for the studies to be included were; randomized controlled trials or cohort studies that focused on adults with Isoniazid mono-resistant tuberculosis (HrTB) and treated with a Levofloxacin-containing regimen along with first-line anti-tubercular drugs; they should have had a control group treated with first-line without Levofloxacin; should have reported treatment success rate, mortality, recurrence, progression to multidrug-resistant Tuberculosis. We performed the search in MEDLINE, EMBASE, Epistemonikos, Google Scholar, and Clinical trials registry. Two authors independently screened the titles/abstracts and full texts that were retained after the initial screening, and a third author resolved disagreements.

Results

Our search found 4,813 records after excluding duplicates. We excluded 4,768 records after screening the titles and abstracts, retaining 44 records. Subsequently, 36 articles were excluded after the full-text screening, and eight appeared to have partially fulfilled the inclusion criteria. We contacted the respective authors, and none responded positively. Hence, no articles were included in the meta-analysis.

Conclusion

We found no "quality" evidence currently on the effectiveness and safety of Levofloxacin in treating HrTB.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42022290333, identifier: CRD42022290333.

Truenat MTB assays for pulmonary tuberculosis and rifampicin resistance in adults

This is a protocol for a Cochrane Review (diagnostic). The objectives are as follows:

To determine the diagnostic accuracy of Truenat assays (MTB, MTB Plus, and MTB RIF Dx) for detecting pulmonary tuberculosis and rifampicin resistance in adults with presumptive pulmonary tuberculosis.

Is self-reported adherence a valid measure of glycaemic control among people living with diabetes in rural India? A cross-sectional analysis

BACKGROUND

Visual analogue scale (VAS) is one of the simplest to measure medication adherence. It has neither been widely used for Non communicable diseases (NCD) nor validated for in the Indian setting. We examined the validity of self-reported medication adherence measures in relation to HbA1C in a rural population with diabetes mellitus (DM).

METHODS

Participants with DM was administered VAS, Diabetes Self-Management Questionnaire (DMSQ) and assessed for missed pills. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression analysis were done.

RESULTS

We recruited 1347 participants and 84% of them reported being 100% adherent as per VAS and 83.8% stated that they did not miss any pills. However, 58.2% of participants who reported having 100% adherence had poor glycaemic control, as did 58.1% of those who did not miss any pills. None of the diabetic self-care measures was significantly associated with glycaemic control.

CONCLUSION

We found a lack of association between self-reported adherence measures and glycaemic control in participants with DM suggesting that self-reported adherence scales may not be valid in this population.

COVID-19 symptoms are reduced by targeted hydration of the nose, larynx and trachea

Dehydration of the upper airways increases risks of respiratory diseases from COVID-19 to asthma and COPD. We find in human volunteer studies involving 464 human subjects in Germany, the US, and India that respiratory droplet generation increases by up to 4 orders of magnitude in dehydration-associated states of advanced age (n = 357), elevated BMI-age (n = 148), strenuous exercise (n = 20) and SARS-CoV-2 infection (n = 87), and falls with hydration of the nose, larynx and trachea by calcium-rich hypertonic salts. We also find in a protocol of exercise-induced airway dehydration that hydration of the airways by calcium-rich salts increases oxygenation relative to a non-treatment control (P < 0.05). In a random control study of COVID-19 positive subjects (n = 40), thrice-a-day delivery of the calcium-rich hypertonic salts (active) suppressed respiratory droplet generation by 51% ± 11% and increased oxygen saturation over three days of treatment by 48.08% ± 9.61% (P < 0.001), while no changes were observed in the nasal-saline control group. Self-reported symptoms significantly declined in the active group and did not decline in the control group. Hydration of the upper airways appears promising as a non-drug approach for reducing risks of respiratory diseases such as COVID-19.

Seroprevalence of COVID-19 infection among vaccine naïve population after the second surge (June 2020) in a rural district of South India: A community-based cross-sectional study

Objective

To determine the seroprevalence of the SARS Cov 2 infection among vaccine naive population in a rural district of South India post-second surge.

Methodology

We conducted a cross-sectional study in the five villages of a randomly chosen sub-district in the Bangalore rural district. We did house to house surveys and recruited 831 vaccine naive adults in July 2021. We tested samples for the presence of antibodies (including IgG & IgM) to SARS CoV-2 using the Roche Elecsys SARS-CoV-2 –S assay that quantifies antibodies against the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike (S) protein.

Results

We estimated an overall prevalence of 62.7% (95% CI: 59.3–66.0) and an age-and gender-adjusted seroprevalence of 44.9% (95% CI: 42.5–47.4). When adjusted for test performance, the seroprevalence was 74.64% (95% CI: 70.66–78.47). The case-to-undetected-infected ratio (CIR) was 1: 8.65 (95% CI 1:8.1–1:9.1), and the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) was 16.27 per 100,00 infections as of 13 July 2021. A history of at least one symptom suggestive of COVID-19 or a positive COVID-19 test of self or a family member in the past were significantly associated with seropositivity.

Conclusion

We report a high seroprevalence of COVID-19 infection despite the advantages of low population density and well-ventilated landscapes in rural areas. CIR and IFR were higher than the previous serosurvey conducted in the same population during the first surge. The thought of achieving herd immunity comes with relief. However, it’s vital to put efforts into building population health and rural health infrastructure to avert future health catastrophes.

Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (-28·4 to -2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (-33·0 to -5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13·6% [-28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13·6% [-29·3 to 8·9]).

INTERPRETATION

Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Seroprevalence of SARS CoV-2 among children after the second surge (June 2021) in a rural district of South India: Findings and lessons from a population-based survey

OBJECTIVE

To determine the seroprevalence of SARS COV 2 among children in the Bangalore Rural district.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study after the second surge of COVID-19 from 14 June to 13 July 2021 and recruited 412 children through house to house visits from four villages in a rural district. We administered a questionnaire to collect demographics and details of COVID-19 infection and used the ABCHEK Antibody Card test (NuLifecare,India) which is an ICMR approved test for detecting antibodies (IgG & IgM) by immunochromatography using the finger prick method. We used Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 20.0 for analysis.

RESULTS

Our participants had an age group ranging from 11 months to 18 years. There was an almost equal distribution of boys (48.3%) and girls (51.7%). We estimated seroprevalence of 45.9% (95% CI: 41-50.8) among children. Seroprevalence was significantly associated with a history of symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 in the past, the seropositive status of the parents, and any other family members being tested positive. Age and gender of the child, education and occupation of the parents were not associated with the seropositivity status of the child.

CONCLUSION

Seroprevalence of COVID-19 among children corresponds to adult seroprevalence during the same time interval. This knowledge can be of practical application where adult prevalence is documented. Unvaccinated children in low-resource settings need special attention with respect to monitoring for new mutations as well as managing endemic needs.

Are hospitals epicentres of COVID19 transmission? Findings of serial serosurveys among healthcare workers from a tertiary hospital in South India

We conducted a serial cross-sectional study and used blood bank donors serosurvey and the ICMR serosurvey reports for comparison. Seroprevalence was 0% among HCWs (n-211) and blood bank donors (n-210) during the first phase while ICMR serosurvey reported 0.5% among general population in the district at the same time. In phase 2, we estimated a seroprevalence of 9.2% as compared to 18.8% among general population. Seroprevalence among HCWs was comparable to that of the general population during both phases. We postulate that good infection control policies and practice can provide safe working environment without additional risk to HCWs.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

METHODS

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

FINDINGS

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

INTERPRETATION

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevalence, risk factors and quality of life of Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms (LUTS) among men attending Primary Care slum clinics in Bangalore: A cross-sectional study

Background

Men, more than 50 years of age, have a higher incidence of lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS), and this increases with the advancing age. The prevalence of LUTS varies in different geographical areas across the world, and studies have reported that LUTS in men may significantly affect the quality of life (QoL) and influence their health-seeking behavior. Early detection of LUTS is essential as it is related to several complications. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of LUTS and factors associated with LUTS and health-seeking behavior.

Methods

We interviewed 201 men (>50 years) attending two urban primary care clinics in Bangalore using the IPSS questionnaire and calculated the prevalence of LUTS. Factors associated with LUTS and health seeking-behavior were tested using the Chi-square test. A P-value less than 0.05 was considered as significant.

Results

The prevalence of LUTS was 85%. LUTS was significantly associated with those having diabetes and those consuming more than two cups of tea per day. The most common symptom was nocturia (85.4%) and a weak stream (35.0%). Moderate and severe LUTS were significantly associated with poor QoL score (P < 0.0001). Only 9.3% of the men sought medical help in spite of their symptoms, and the most common reason for seeking health care was the disturbance they had due to the urinary symptoms (81.3%).

Conclusions

Family physicians should be aware that a significant proportion of the men in the age group of 50 years suffer from LUTS, and eliciting the same is essential during the process of consultation.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

METHODS

We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15-19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: -1·21% [-1·26 to -1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (-0·94% [-1·72 to -0·14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period.

INTERPRETATION

Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally.

METHODS

We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available.

FINDINGS

Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13-1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11-7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5-28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4-39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98-1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16-8·20) deaths and 200 million (185-214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3-21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers.

INTERPRETATION

In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Extent of awareness and attitudes on plagiarism among post-graduate resident doctors and junior medical faculty in India: a cross-sectional, multicentric study

OBJECTIVES

Though dissertation is mandatory for postgraduates (PG), it is unknown if adequate knowledge on plagiarism exists at that level. Thus, we intended to study the knowledge and attitude towards plagiarism among junior doctors in India.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study SETTING: PG medical residents and Junior faculty from various teaching institutions across south India.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of N=786 doctors filled the questionnaires of which approximately 42.7% were from government medical colleges (GMCs) and the rest from private institutions.

METHODS

Participants were given a pretested semistructured questionnaire which contained: (1) demographic details; (2) a quiz developed by Indiana University, USA to assess knowledge and (3) Attitudes towards Plagiarism Questionnaire (ATPQ).

OUTCOME MEASURES

The Primary outcome measure was knowledge about plagiarism. The secondary outcome measure was ATPQ scores.

RESULTS

A total of N=786 resident doctors and junior faculty from across 11 institutions participated in this study. Of this, 42.7% were from GMCs and 60.6% were women. The mean (SD) knowledge score was 4.43 (1.99) out of 10. The factors (adjusted OR; 95% CI; p value) that emerged as significant predictors of knowledge were number of years in profession (-0.181; -0.299 to -0.062; 0.003), no previous publication (0.298; 0.099 to 0.498; 0.003) and working in a GMC (0.400; 0.106 to 0.694; 0.008). The overall mean (SD) scores of the three attitude components were: Permissive attitudes-37.33 (5.33), critical attitudes -20.32 (4.82) and subjective norms-31.05 (4.58), all of which corresponded to the moderate category.

CONCLUSION

Participants lacked adequate knowledge on how to avoid plagiarism suggesting a need for a revamp in medical education curriculum in India by incorporating research and publication ethics.

A community-based cross-sectional study on knowledge, attitude, and perceptions about asthma among healthy adults in rural South India

Background:

Evidence suggests that proper knowledge and perceptions about asthma result in a positive correlation with compliance with medications and regular medical follow-up. Assessing the level of knowledge, attitude, and perception (KAP) in the community is essential for planning public health interventions. There is a lacuna on community-based KAP study on asthma in rural India, as most of the existing evidence is from hospital-based studies in an urban setting.

Methods:

We interviewed 280 healthy adults from 14 villages in South India using the Chicago community asthma survey-32 (CCAS-32) questionnaire. We noted the frequency distribution of responses to the questions and scored KAP on symptoms, triggers, and treatment, and performed bivariate and multivariate analyses.

Results:

The mean age was 37.7 years ranging from 18 to 62 years. Almost half of them (47%) had primary or middle school education. 40.7% and 57.9% believed severe headache and tightness of chest were symptoms of asthma, respectively. Similarly, 38.2% and 48.4% thought asthma was a hereditary and contagious disease, respectively, whereas 41.8% of perceived asthma medications could be addictive. Having witnessed “patients with asthma” was associated with KAP on symptoms and triggers while younger age and having a relative with asthma were associated with KAP on treatment independently. Participants who had relatives with asthma were three times [(OR 3.04; 95% (1.5–6.1)] more likely to have good KAP compared to their counterparts.

Conclusion:

Asthma knowledge and perceptions are sparse in rural India. Adequate investments in public awareness are the need of the hour.

Seroprevalence of COVID-19 infection in a rural district of South India: A population-based seroepidemiological study

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of COVID-19 in a rural district of South India, six months after the index case.

METHODOLOGY

We conducted a cross-sectional study of 509 adults aged more than 18 years. From all the four subdistricts, two grampanchayats (administrative cluster of 5-8 villages) were randomly selected followed by one village through convenience. The participants were invited for the study to the community-based study kiosk set up in all the eight villages through village health committees. We collected socio-demographic characteristics and symptoms using a mobile application-based questionnaire, and we tested samples for the presence of IgG antibodies for SARS CoV-2 using an electro chemiluminescent immunoassay. We calculated age-gender adjusted and test performance adjusted seroprevalence.

RESULTS

The age-and gender-adjusted seroprevalence was 8.5% (95% CI 6.9%- 10.8%). The unadjusted seroprevalence among participants with hypertension and diabetes was 16.3% (95% CI:9.2-25.8) and 10.7% (95% CI: 5.5-18.3) respectively. When we adjusted for the test performance, the seroprevalence was 6.1% (95% CI 4.02-8.17). The study estimated 7 (95% CI 1:4.5-1:9) undetected infected individuals for every RT-PCR confirmed case. Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) was calculated as 12.38 per 10000 infections as on 22 October 2020. History of self-reported symptoms and education were significantly associated with positive status (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

A significant proportion of the rural population in a district of south India remains susceptible to COVID-19. A higher proportion of susceptible, relatively higher IFR and a poor tertiary healthcare network stress the importance of sustaining the public health measures and promoting early access to the vaccine are crucial to preserving the health of this population. Low population density, good housing, adequate ventilation, limited urbanisation combined with public, private and local health leadership are critical components of curbing future respiratory pandemics.

Gut Microbial Profile Is Associated With Residential Settings and Not Nutritional Status in Adults in Karnataka, India

Undernutrition is a leading contributor to disease and disability in people of all ages. Several studies have reported significant association between nutritional status and gut microbiome composition but other factors such as demographic settings may also influence the adult microbiome. The relationship between undernourishment and gut microbiome in adults has not been described to date. In this study, we compared the gut microbiome in fecal samples of 48 individuals, from two demographic settings (rural and urban slum) in Karnataka, India using 16S rRNA sequencing. Nutritional status was assessed based on BMI, with a BMI of < 18.5 kg/m² classified as undernourished, and a BMI in the range 18.5–25 kg/m² as nourished. We analyzed 25 individuals from rural settings (12 undernourished and 13 nourished) and 23 individuals from urban slum settings (11 undernourished and 12 nourished). We found no significant difference in overall gut microbial diversity (Shannon and Unweighted UniFrac) between undernourished and nourished individuals in either geographical settings, however, microbial taxa at the phylum level (i.e., Firmicutes and Proteobacteria) and beta diversity (unweighted UniFrac) differed significantly between the rural and urban slum settings. By predicting microbial function from 16S data profiling we found significant differences in metabolic pathways present in the gut microbiota from people residing in different settings; specifically, those related to carbohydrate and lipid metabolism. The weighted sum of the KEGG Orthologs associated with carbohydrate metabolism (Spearman's correlation coefficient, ρ = −0.707, p < 0.001), lipid metabolism (Spearman's correlation coefficient, ρ = −0.330, p < 0.022) and biosynthesis of secondary metabolites (Spearman's correlation coefficient, ρ = −0.507, p < 0.001) were decreased in the urban slum group compared to the rural group. In conclusion, we report that the geographical location of residence is associated with differences in gut microbiome composition in adults. We found no significant differences in microbiome composition between nourished and undernourished adults from urban slum or rural settings in India.

High seroprevalence of COVID-19 infection in a large slum in South India; what does it tell us about managing a pandemic and beyond?

People living in urban slums or informal settlements are among the most vulnerable communities, highly susceptible to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection and vulnerable to the consequences of the measures taken to control the spread of the virus. Fear and stigma related to infection, mistrust between officials and the population, the often-asymptomatic nature of the disease is likely to lead to under-reporting. We conducted a cross-sectional study to determine the seroprevalence of COVID-19 infection in a large slum in South India 3 months after the index case and recruited 499 adults (age >18 years). The majority (74.3%) were females and about one-third of the population reported comorbidities. The overall seroprevalence of IgG antibody for COVID-19 was 57.9% (95% CI 53.4-62.3). Age, education, occupation and the presence of reported comorbidities were not associated with seroprevalence (P-value >0.05). Case-to-undetected-infections ratio was 1:195 and infection fatality rate was calculated as 2.94 per 10 000 infections. We estimated seroprevalence of COVID-19 was very high in our study population. The focus in this slum should shift from infection prevention to managing the indirect consequences of the pandemic. We recommend seroprevalence studies in such settings before vaccination to identify the vulnerability of COVID-19 infection to optimise the use of insufficient resources. It is a wake-up call to societies and nations, to dedicate paramount attention to slums into recovery and beyond - to build, restore and maintain health equity for the 'Health and wellbeing of all'.

Airway Hygiene in Children and Adults for Lowering Respiratory Droplet Exposure in Clean and Dirty Air

Respiratory illness threatens the learning potential of hundreds of millions of children around the world. We find in a human volunteer study involving three sites and 253 volunteers that respiratory droplets — of the size and nature to potentially contain COVID-19, influenza, allergens and other contaminants — diminish in number on exhalation by up to 99% via the “airway hygiene” administration of a nasal saline rich in calcium. Exhaled particles were significantly higher and efficacy of airway hygiene greatest at the site (Bangalore India) with highest fine particle ambient air burden. We argue for the use of airway hygiene for pandemic and post-pandemic global learning.

Perception and awareness of unintentional childhood injuries among primary caregivers of children in Vellore, South India: a community-based cross-sectional study using photo-elicitation method

OBJECTIVE

We studied the primary caregivers' perception, and further, their awareness of unintentional childhood injuries in south India.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted in the rural block of Kaniyambadi, Vellore, among 300 primary caregivers of children aged between 0 and 14 years. A semi-structured interview was conducted with the primary caregivers using a photo-elicitation method, with a visual depiction of ten injury risky scenarios for a child. Scoring was done to assess the perception of environmental hazards in these scenarios, and further, knowledge on the prevention of these injuries. An independent 't' test was done to elicit differences in mean scores and a multivariate regression analysis was applied to ascertain factors independently associated with the scores.

RESULTS

Primary caregivers had adequate perception regarding risks posed to children in scenarios such as climbing trees (96.2%), playing near construction sites (96%), firecrackers (96.4%) and crossing unmanned roads with no traffic signals (94%). Knowledge of prevention was poor however, in the following scenarios: a woman riding a bicycle without safety features, with child pillion sitting behind bare foot and legs hanging by one side (72.6%); a child playing near a construction site (85.9%); and a child playing with plastic bags (88.3%). Overall, educational status of the primary caregiver and socioeconomic status were associated with poorer perception of risks and knowledge about unintentional childhood injuries and their prevention.

CONCLUSIONS

Pragmatic community-based childhood interventions incorporated into existing programs, with a special focus on road traffic injuries, burns and suffocation need to be implemented in high-risk settings of rural populations in South India.

Challenges, experience and coping of health professionals in delivering healthcare in an urban slum in India during the first 40 days of COVID-19 crisis: a mixed method study

OBJECTIVES

To describe the initial dilemmas, mental stress, adaptive measures implemented and how the healthcare team collectively coped while providing healthcare services in a large slum in India, during the COVID-19 pandemic.

SETTING

Community Health Division, Bangalore Baptist Hospital, Bangalore.

STUDY DESIGN

We used mixed methods research with a quantitative (QUAN) paradigm nested in the primary qualitative (QUAL) design. QUAL methods included ethnography research methods, in-depth interviews and focus group discussions.

PARTICIPANTS

A healthcare team of doctors, nurses, paramedical and support staff. Out of 87 staff, 42 participated in the QUAL methods and 64 participated in the QUAN survey.

RESULTS

Being cognizant of the extreme vulnerability of the slums, the health team struggled with conflicting thoughts of self-preservation and their moral obligation to the marginalised section of society. Majority (75%) of the staff experienced fear at some point in time. Distracting themselves with hobbies (20.3%) and spending more time with family (39.1%) were cited as a means of emotional regulation by the participants in the QUAN survey. In the QUAL interviews, fear of death, the guilt of disease transmission to their loved ones, anxiety about probable violence and stigma in the slums and exhaustion emerged as the major themes causing stress among healthcare professionals. With positive cognitive reappraisal, the health team collectively designed and implemented adaptive interventions to ensure continuity of care. They dealt with the new demands by positive reframing, peer support, distancing, information seeking, response efficacy, self-efficacy, existential goal pursuit, value adherence and religious coping.

CONCLUSION

The novel threat of the COVID-19 pandemic threw insurmountable challenges potentiating disastrous consequences; slums becoming a threat to themselves, threat to the health providers and a threat for all. Perhaps, a lesson we could learn from this pandemic is to incorporate 'slum health' within universal healthcare.

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages.

METHODS

Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0-100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target-1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023-we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023.

FINDINGS

Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2-47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7-61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9-3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010-2019 relative to 1990-2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6-421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0-3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5-1040·3]) residing in south Asia.

INTERPRETATION

The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people-the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close-or how far-all populations are in benefiting from UHC.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries.

METHODS

GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI.

INTERPRETATION

As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

BACKGROUND

While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria.

METHODS

In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced.

RESULTS

GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries.

METHODS

We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

FINDINGS

In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505).

INTERPRETATION

Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.

METHODS

We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.

FINDINGS

The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.

INTERPRETATION

By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Reason for refusal of insulin therapy among type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in primary care clinic in Bangalore

Background

Early initiation of insulin therapy and thereby the better control of blood sugar levels has shown reduction in complications. Although insulin therapy has been demonstrated to be efficacious, its initiation is often delayed due to multiple factors including the refusal of insulin therapy by the patients. This study aims to explore the reasons for the refusal of insulin therapy in a resource-constrained primary care setting in an urban slum in India.

Materials and Methods

We included 148 patients who required insulin therapy but refused. A semi-structured questionnaire was administered by a primary care physician. Chi-square test was done to test the association between demographic factors and the reasons for refusal. P < 0.05 was considered as significant.

Results

The mean age of the patients was 49.53 (SD+/-9.8) years. Majority (40.5%) of the patients had diabetes for 6-10 years, and most of them were living with their families (89.9%) and 77% of them were dependent on their family for their financial and physical needs. Financial constraint was the most common reason for reason (74.3%) followed by afraid of pain (68.9%) and fear of dependency (57.4). Gender, occupation, and duration of diabetes and witnessing insulin administration were significantly associated with stigma related to insulin therapy.

Conclusion

Financial constraint is one of the key factors as patients have to buy insulin out of pocket and are not covered by insurance. Government initiatives to reduce and monitor the cost of the insulin would be of great benefit to the patients in this setting.

The burden of unintentional drowning: global, regional and national estimates of mortality from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study

Background

Drowning is a leading cause of injury-related mortality globally. Unintentional drowning (International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10 codes W65-74 and ICD9 E910) is one of the 30 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive causes of injury-related mortality in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. This study’s objective is to describe unintentional drowning using GBD estimates from 1990 to 2017.

Methods

Unintentional drowning from GBD 2017 was estimated for cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs), age, sex, country, region, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, and trends from 1990 to 2017. GBD 2017 used standard GBD methods for estimating mortality from drowning.

Results

Globally, unintentional drowning mortality decreased by 44.5% between 1990 and 2017, from 531 956 (uncertainty interval (UI): 484 107 to 572 854) to 295 210 (284 493 to 306 187) deaths. Global age-standardised mortality rates decreased 57.4%, from 9.3 (8.5 to 10.0) in 1990 to 4.0 (3.8 to 4.1) per 100 000 per annum in 2017. Unintentional drowning-associated mortality was generally higher in children, males and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh accounted for 51.2% of all drowning deaths in 2017. Oceania was the region with the highest rate of age-standardised YLLs in 2017, with 45 434 (40 850 to 50 539) YLLs per 100 000 across both sexes.

Conclusions

There has been a decline in global drowning rates. This study shows that the decline was not consistent across countries. The results reinforce the need for continued and improved policy, prevention and research efforts, with a focus on low- and middle-income countries.

Paternal involvement in feeding and its association with nutritional status of children in an urban slum in a low-resource setting: A cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

In India, childhood malnutrition continues to be a major public health problem, especially in slums. Research mostly focuses on the role of the mother in child feeding, as she spends significantly more time with children. However, the role of fathers, their parenting skills, and child-feeding practices may also affect child development and eating behavior, independent of maternal factors. To our knowledge, there is limited research on the role of the father in child undernutrition, especially in the Indian context. Thus, the aim of this study was to address this knowledge gap and to explore paternal child-feeding patterns, their involvement in feeding, and its association with malnutrition in the slums.

METHODS

This community-based, cross-sectional study was conducted in an urban slum in Bangalore. The study included 210 father-child dyads. The Caregiver's Feeding Styles Questionnaire was used to assess paternal involvement in parenting and feeding. Anthropometry measurements were taken using standardized methods. Nutritional status was classified according to the growth standards of the World Health Organization. Logistic regression was used to test the association between paternal parenting style and malnutrition.

RESULTS

We recruited 116 boys and 94 girls and their fathers. The mean age of the children was 15.94 mo (SD 4.85). One-fourth of the fathers were illiterate and most of the families belonged to the middle class. Almost half of the fathers fed their children once a day (57.1%) and engaged them during feeding by telling stories (47.1%). The most common paternal feeding style was uninvolved (36%) followed by authoritative (29.5%). Prevalence of undernutrition, stunting, and wasting was 44.3%, 42.8%, and 9.5%, respectively. Religion, type of family, and per capita income were independently associated with uninvolved feeding style. There was no association between paternal child-feeding style malnutrition (P > 0.05) CONCLUSION: The present study explored the dimensions of paternal involvement in child feeding in a slum setting and its effect on child nutrition. A good proportion of fathers were actively involved in child feeding and neither involvement nor paternal feeding styles were associated with the nutritional status of children.

Factors Contributing to Alcohol Relapse in a Rural Population: Lessons from a Camp-Based De-Addiction Model from Rural Karnataka

Context:

Alcohol consumption is the third largest risk factor for disease and disability in developing countries. Globally, 4% of all deaths are related to alcohol consumption every year. De-addiction measures and rehabilitation strategies can sometimes be challenging in rural population as there is a potential for a higher rate of relapse due to socio-cultural barriers such as unemployment, limited entrainment activities, and peer pressure during social events.

Methodology:

A cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the factors contributing to relapse in Bengaluru rural district. A total of 112 participants were interviewed, after attending de-addiction camp, using a semi-structured questionnaire containing instruments such as Penn Alcohol Craving Scale, self-efficacy scale, interpersonal support evaluation list, and presumptive stressful life events scale. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression was done to determine the factors associated with relapse.

Results:

The relapse rate was 55.4% among the study participants. Education, self-efficacy, social support, and craving were associated with relapse in the bivariate analysis (P < 0.05). In multiple logistic regression model, craving (odds ratio [OR] – 1.8, confidence interval [CI]: 1.2–2.5), good interpersonal tangible support (OR – 0.09, CI: 0.01–0.5), and desirable life events (OR – 0.03, CI: 0.02–0.6) in the past were associated with relapse.

Conclusion:

Relapse rate was 55.4% among the study participants which is comparable to the findings of the other long-term studies. Increased craving, low-self-efficacy, and poor social support were associated with relapse hence need to be addressed in follow-up counseling sessions.

Do family physicians suffer an identity crisis? A perspective of family physicians in Bangalore city

Background:

The need of the hour in Indian healthcare is well-qualified, competent family physicians, but there is an overwhelming importance given to specialized medical care. Family physicians feel that they do not get the recognition they deserve. This study was undertaken to explore the views and perceptions of family physicians and residents about their specialty.

Materials and Methods:

This cross-sectional study was conducted among 110 doctors who are undergoing family medicine (FM) residency and practicing family physicians in Bangalore. The questionnaire was developed with domains on patient or family relationship, balancing breadth and depth in practice, comprehensive nature of patient care, career flexibility, and patient advocacy. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 17.0, and P value less than 0.05 was considered as statistically significant.

Results:

The majority of the participants (55.5%) felt that there is poor acceptance among the people about FM doctor as a specialist. A significant proportion (39.1%) of them indicated that thought of “Jack of all trades and Master of none” bothers them much. More than 90% of respondents felt a sense of pride being family physicians. FM practitioners (28.4 ± 3.1) had a good perception score when compared with residents (27 ± 3.6) (P < 0.05). There was a significant difference among FM residents and practitioners on being pride of FM physician sense of belonging to larger community FM physicians.

Conclusion:

FM residents go through more identity crisis when compared with practitioners. This can be addressed well by incorporating FM curriculum in undergraduate medical training and strong FM department where students have role model as mentors and take FM as specialty as their preferred choice.

Perception of unintentional childhood injuries among mothers in rural South India

Parental perception of safe and risk-free environment is critical in the prevention of unintentional childhood injury. In this cross-sectional study, hundred mothers from 13 clusters were interviewed to assess the perception of mothers regarding the risks and hazards leading to unintentional childhood injuries from March to April 2013. A tool developed by Glik et al. was used. Mothers' perception of likelihood of injury from hazards such as household door and drawers, small toys, plastic bags, and cribs was poor. Mothers had a poor perception of injury by entrapment in refrigerators, choking, and strangulation by a rope. Age, education, and literacy (P < 0.05) were found to be significant predictors of perception of risk and hazard. Very few mothers (9%) believed injuries can be completely prevented and illiteracy (P < 0.05) was associated with poor perception on prevention. Health education should focus on improving maternal perception which may bring positive impact on prevention.

Incidence and Impact of Unintentional Childhood Injuries: A Community Based Study in Rural South India

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the incidence of unintentional childhood injuries and to assess the impact of injury during childhood.

METHODS

This is a cross sectional study, conducted in 13 clusters of a rural block in Vellore. Children were screened by two-stage cluster sampling method by two weeks and three months recall method. The primary caregivers of injured children were administered a questionnaire to assess the impact of the injury.

RESULTS

Childhood injury related morbidity was 292.5 per 1000 y. Children between 10 and 14 y (4.6%) and boys (4.5%) had a higher rate of injury. Fall (43.1 %) was the most common cause of injury followed by RTIs (Road Traffic Incidents- 27.6%). Work absenteeism for primary caregivers ranged from 1 to 60 (IQR 2-7) days. Sickness absenteeism ranged from 1 to 45 d with a mean of 7.64 (IQR 2-7) days. Half of the children missed school after an injury. The days spent with temporary disability ranged from 1 to 60 d with a mean of 11.79 (IQR 2-7) d and 7.73% had permanent disability.

CONCLUSIONS

Unintentional childhood injury is a neglected public health problem which leads to sickness absenteeism and disability. Boys and older children are the most common victims of injury. There is a need for establishing state or nationwide injury registries to help understand accurate estimates of disability-adjusted life year (DALY) and loss of productivity.

Prevalence, perceptions and practices associated with non-adherence to diabetes medications in primary care setting: A cross sectional study in urban Bangalore

Background: Adherence to diet and drugs, blood glucose monitoring, foot care, exercise and early recognition of the complications, are the crucial elements for tertiary prevention of Diabetes Mellitus. Non compliance can lead to poor glycemic control which can eventually aggravate complications and lead to disability and mortality. This study aimed  at estimating prevalence of non-adherence and identify perceptions and practices associated with non-adherence.Materials and Methods: A cross sectional study was conducted in a primary care clinic in a disadvantaged community Hundred patients with Diabetes were recruited and interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire.Results: Non adherence rate was 30%. Those who are unable to remember multiple doses (37.5%) were 2.77 (95% CI: 0.94-8.15) times more likely to non-adhere to the treatment than those who are able to remember multiple doses (16.7%).Similarly Patients who often discontinued medications and switched over to alternative system medicines tended to be non- adherent 8.5 (95% CI:1.6- 45.0) times more than those who continued treatment without interruption. Non adherence was not associated with age, gender, education level, and cost of medication and duration of diabetes. People who were illiterate and elderly did not know the consequences of missing doses and stopped medications when they felt better as well as resorted to traditional medicinesConclusions: Counselling sessions should focus on perceptions and ideas about diabetes. Innovative health education modalities have to be developed for illiterate and elderly people.Asian Journal of Medical Sciences Vol.7(5) 2016 106-109

Prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders among brick kiln workers in rural Southern India

Background:

A variety of musculoskeletal disorders and discomfort are seen among brick kiln workers, where heavy physical work is associated with awkward working postures and manual handling of materials, leading to significant morbidity.

Materials and Methods:

This cross-sectional study was conducted in unorganized brick kiln industries in villages of Vellore district of Tamil Nadu and included 310 brick kiln workers. Modified Nordic Questionnaire was used to survey the prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders and the intensity of pain was assessed by the body pain discomfort scale.

Results:

The mean age of the workers was 37 ± 13.2 years with a range of 18-85 years. 62% (n = 192) had normal body mass index, whereas 27% (n = 85) were undernourished. The commonest posture adopted at work was squatting (67%) followed by standing (14%). Majority of workers (87%, n = 269) reported to having symptoms of pain currently of which 51% (n = 158) had pain during work. Chronic low back ache (LBA) (1 year prevalence -59%) and acute LBA (1 week prevalence-33%) were the commonest followed by chronic knee pain. More than 10 years of work was significantly associated (P < 0.05) with acute LBA and acute and chronic knee pain. Severity of the pain was also significantly (t statistic 2.476, P < 0.05) associated with job dissatisfaction.

Conclusion:

Long-term brick kiln workers, who adopt a specific posture for prolonged periods, have severe musculoskeletal pain that interferes with activities of daily living and reduces job satisfaction. Health education on frequent postural change, implementation and monitoring of laws among unorganized industries are recommended to bring down morbidity due to musculoskeletal disorders (MSD).