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Sharman A, Shaw JE, Shayanrad A, Shayesteh AA, Shengelia L, Shi Z, Shibuya K, Shimizu-Furusawa H, Shimony T, Shiri R, Shrestha N, Si-Ramlee K, Siani A, Siantar R, Sibai AM, Sidossis LS, Silitrari N, Silva AM, Silva CRDM, Silva DAS, Silva KS, Sim X, Simon M, Simons J, Simons LA, Sjöberg A, Sjöström M, Skoblina EV, Skoblina NA, Slazhnyova T, Slowikowska-Hilczer J, Slusarczyk P, Smeeth L, So HK, Soares FC, Sobek G, Sobngwi E, Sodemann M, Söderberg S, Soekatri MYE, Soemantri A, Sofat R, Solfrizzi V, Solovieva YV, Somi MH, Sonestedt E, Song Y, Soofi S, Sørensen TIA, Sørgjerd EP, Sossa Jérome C, Soto-Rojas VE, Soumaré A, Sousa-Poza A, Sovic S, Sparboe-Nilsen B, Sparrenberger K, Spencer PR, Spinelli A, Spiroski I, Staessen JA, Stamm H, Stang A, Starc G, Staub K, Stavreski B, Steene-Johannessen J, Stehle P, Stein AD, Steinsbekk S, Stergiou GS, Stessman J, Stevanović R, Stieber J, Stöckl D, Stokwiszewski J, Stoyanova E, Stratton G, Stronks K, Strufaldi MW, Sturua L, Suárez-Medina R, Suarez-Ortegón MF, Suebsamran P, Sugiyama M, Suka M, Sulo G, Sun CA, Sun L, Sund M, Sundström J, Sung YT, Sunyer J, Suriyawongpaisal P, Sweis NWG, Swinburn BA, Sy RG, Sylva RC, Szponar L, Tabone L, Tai ES, Takuro F, Tambalis KD, Tammesoo ML, Tamosiunas A, Tan EJ, Tang X, Tanrygulyyeva M, Tanser F, Tao Y, Tarawneh MR, Tarp J, Tarqui-Mamani CB, Taxová Braunerová R, Taylor A, Taylor J, Tchibindat F, Te Velde S, Tebar WR, Tell GS, Tello T, Tessema M, Tham YC, Thankappan KR, Theobald H, Theodoridis X, Thomas N, Thorand B, Thrift AG, Tichá Ľ, Timmermans EJ, Tjandrarini DH, Tjonneland A, Tolonen HK, Tolstrup JS, Tomaszewski M, Topbas M, Topór-Mądry R, Torheim LE, Tornaritis MJ, Torrent M, Torres-Collado L, Toselli S, Touloumi G, Traissac P, Tran TTH, Tremblay MS, Triantafyllou A, Trichopoulos D, Trichopoulou A, Trinh OTH, Trivedi A, Tshepo L, Tsigga M, Tsintavis P, Tsugane S, Tuitele J, Tuliakova AM, Tulloch-Reid MK, Tullu F, Tuomainen TP, Tuomilehto J, Twig G, Tynelius P, Tzala E, Tzotzas T, Tzourio C, Udoji N, Ueda P, Ugel E, Ukoli FAM, Ulmer H, Unal B, Usupova Z, Uusitalo HMT, Uysal N, Vaitkeviciute J, Valdivia G, Vale S, Valvi D, van Dam RM, van den Born BJ, Van der Heyden J, van der Schouw YT, Van Herck K, Van Lippevelde W, Van Minh H, Van Schoor NM, van Valkengoed IGM, Vanderschueren D, Vanuzzo D, Varbo A, Varela-Moreiras G, Vargas LN, Varona-Pérez P, Vasan SK, Vasques DG, Vatasescu R, Vega T, Veidebaum T, Velasquez-Melendez G, Velika B, Verloigne M, Veronesi G, Verschuren WMM, Victora CG, Viegi G, Viet L, Vik FN, Vilar M, Villalpando S, Vioque J, Viriyautsahakul N, Virtanen JK, Visser M, Visvikis-Siest S, Viswanathan B, Vladulescu M, Vlasoff T, Vocanec D, Vollenweider P, Völzke H, Vourli G, Voutilainen A, Vrijheid M, Vrijkotte TGM, Vuletić S, Wade AN, Waldhör T, Walton J, Wambiya EOA, Wan Bebakar WM, Wan Mohamud WN, Wanderley Júnior RDS, Wang C, Wang H, Wang MD, Wang N, Wang Q, Wang X, Wang YX, Wang YW, Wannamethee SG, Wareham N, Wartha O, Weber A, Wedderkopp N, Weghuber D, Wei W, Weres A, Werner B, Westbury LD, Whincup PH, Wichstrøm L, Wickramasinghe K, Widhalm K, Widyahening IS, Więcek A, Wild PS, Wilks RJ, Willeit J, Willeit P, Williams J, Wilsgaard T, Wirth JP, Wojtyniak B, Woldeyohannes M, Wolf K, Wong-McClure RA, Wong A, Wong EB, Wong JE, Wong TY, Woo J, Woodward M, Wu FC, Wu HY, Wu J, Wu LJ, Wu S, Wyszyńska J, Xu H, Xu L, Yaacob NA, Yamborisut U, Yan L, Yan W, Yang L, Yang X, Yang Y, Yardim N, Yasuharu T, Yépez García M, Yiallouros PK, Yngve A, Yoosefi M, Yoshihara A, Yotov Y, You QS, You SL, Younger-Coleman NO, Yu YL, Yu Y, Yusof SM, Yusoff AF, Zaccagni L, Zafiropulos V, Zainuddin AA, Zakavi SR, Zamani F, Zambon S, Zampelas A, Zamrazilová H, Zapata ME, Zargar AH, Zaw KK, Zayed AA, Zdrojewski T, Żegleń M, Zejglicova K, Zeljkovic Vrkic T, Zeng Y, Zentai A, Zhang B, Zhang L, Zhang ZY, Zhao D, Zhao MH, Zhao W, Zhecheva YV, Zhen S, Zheng W, Zheng Y, Zholdin B, Zhou M, Zhu D, Zimmet P, Zins M, Zitt E, Zocalo Y, Zoghlami N, Zuñiga Cisneros J, Zuziak M, Ezzati M. Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults. Lancet 2024; 403:1027-1050. [PMID: 38432237 PMCID: PMC7615769 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(23)02750-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2023] [Revised: 11/22/2023] [Accepted: 12/05/2023] [Indexed: 03/05/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. METHODS We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median). FINDINGS From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. INTERPRETATION The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity. FUNDING UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.
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Zhou B, Sheffer KE, Bennett JE, Gregg EW, Danaei G, Singleton RK, Shaw JE, Mishra A, Lhoste VPF, Carrillo-Larco RM, Kengne AP, Phelps NH, Heap RA, Rayner AW, Stevens GA, Paciorek CJ, Riley LM, Cowan MJ, Savin S, Vander Hoorn S, Lu Y, Pavkov ME, Imperatore G, Aguilar-Salinas CA, Ahmad NA, Anjana RM, Davletov K, Farzadfar F, González-Villalpando C, Khang YH, Kim HC, Laatikainen T, Laxmaiah A, Mbanya JCN, Narayan KMV, Ramachandran A, Wade AN, Zdrojewski T, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Rahim HFA, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Adambekov S, Adams RJ, Aekplakorn W, Agdeppa IA, Aghazadeh-Attari J, Agyemang C, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi N, Ahmadi N, Ahmed SH, Ajlouni K, Al-Hinai H, Al-Lahou B, Al-Lawati JA, Asfoor DA, Al Qaoud NM, Alarouj M, AlBuhairan F, AlDhukair S, Aldwairji MA, Ali MM, Alinezhad F, Alkandari A, Alomirah HF, Aly E, Amarapurkar DN, Andersen LB, Anderssen SA, Andrade DS, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Aounallah-Skhiri H, Aris T, Arlappa N, Aryal KK, Assah FK, Assembekov B, Auvinen J, Avdičová M, Azad K, Azimi-Nezhad M, Azizi F, Bacopoulou F, Balakrishna N, Bamoshmoosh M, Banach M, Bandosz P, Banegas JR, Barbagallo CM, Barceló A, Baretić M, Barrera L, Basit A, Batieha AM, Batista AP, Baur LA, Belavendra A, Ben Romdhane H, Benet M, Berkinbayev S, Bernabe-Ortiz A, Berrios Carrasola X, Bettiol H, Beybey AF, Bhargava SK, Bika Lele EC, Bikbov MM, Bista B, Bjerregaard P, Bjertness E, Bjertness MB, Björkelund C, Bloch KV, Blokstra A, Bo S, Bobak M, Boggia JG, Bonaccio M, Bonilla-Vargas A, Borghs H, Bovet P, Brajkovich I, Brenner H, Brewster LM, Brian GR, Briceño Y, Brito M, Bugge A, Buntinx F, Cabrera de León A, Caixeta RB, Can G, Cândido APC, Capanzana MV, Čapková N, Capuano E, Capuano R, Capuano V, Cardoso VC, Carlsson AC, Casanueva FF, Censi L, Cervantes‐Loaiza M, Chamnan P, Chamukuttan S, Chan Q, Charchar FJ, Chaturvedi N, Chen H, Cheraghian B, Chirlaque MD, Chudek J, Cifkova R, Cirillo M, Claessens F, Cohen E, Concin H, Cooper C, Costanzo S, Cowell C, Crujeiras AB, Cruz JJ, Cureau FV, Cuschieri S, D’Arrigo G, d’Orsi E, Dallongeville J, Damasceno A, Dastgiri S, De Curtis A, de Gaetano G, De Henauw S, Deepa M, DeGennaro V, Demarest S, Dennison E, Deschamps V, Dhimal M, Dika Z, Djalalinia S, Donfrancesco C, Dong G, Dorobantu M, Dörr M, Dragano N, Drygas W, Du Y, Duante CA, Duboz P, Dushpanova A, Dziankowska-Zaborszczyk E, Ebrahimi N, Eddie R, Eftekhar E, Efthymiou V, Egbagbe EE, Eghtesad S, El-Khateeb M, El Ati J, Eldemire-Shearer D, Elosua R, Enang O, Erasmus RT, Erbel R, Erem C, Ergor G, Eriksen L, Eriksson JG, Esmaeili A, Evans RG, Fakhradiyev I, Fall CH, Faramarzi E, Farjam M, Farzi Y, Fattahi MR, Fawwad A, Felix-Redondo FJ, Ferguson TS, Fernández-Bergés D, Ferrari M, Ferreccio C, Ferreira HS, Ferrer E, Feskens EJM, Flood D, Forsner M, Fosse S, Fottrell EF, Fouad HM, Francis DK, Frontera G, Furusawa T, Gaciong Z, Garnett SP, Gasull M, Gazzinelli A, Gehring U, Ghaderi E, Ghamari SH, Ghanbari A, Ghasemi E, Gheorghe-Fronea OF, Ghimire A, Gialluisi A, Giampaoli S, Gianfagna F, Gill TK, Gironella G, Giwercman A, Goltzman D, Gomula A, Gonçalves H, Gonçalves M, Gonzalez-Chica DA, Gonzalez-Gross M, González-Rivas JP, González-Villalpando ME, Gonzalez AR, Gottrand F, Grafnetter D, Grodzicki T, Grøntved A, Guerrero R, Gujral UP, Gupta R, Gutierrez L, Gwee X, Haghshenas R, Hakimi H, Hambleton IR, Hamzeh B, Hanekom WA, Hange D, Hantunen S, Hao J, Hari Kumar R, Harooni J, Hashemi-Shahri SM, Hata J, Heidemann C, Henrique RDS, Herrala S, Herzig KH, Heshmat R, Ho SY, Holdsworth M, Homayounfar R, Hopman WM, Horimoto ARVR, Hormiga C, Horta BL, Houti L, Howitt C, Htay TT, Htet AS, Htike MMT, Huerta JM, Huhtaniemi IT, Huisman M, Husseini A, Huybrechts I, Iacoviello L, Iakupova EM, Iannone AG, Ibrahim Wong N, Ijoma C, Irazola VE, Ishida T, Isiguzo GC, Islam SMS, Islek D, Ittermann T, Iwasaki M, Jääskeläinen T, Jacobs JM, Jaddou HY, Jadoul M, Jallow B, James K, Jamil KM, Janus E, Jarvelin MR, Jasienska G, Jelaković A, Jelaković B, Jennings G, Jha AK, Jimenez RO, Jöckel KH, Jokelainen JJ, Jonas JB, Joshi P, Josipović J, Joukar F, Jóźwiak J, Kafatos A, Kajantie EO, Kalmatayeva Z, Karki KB, Katibeh M, Kauhanen J, Kazakbaeva GM, Kaze FF, Ke C, Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi S, Kelishadi R, Keramati M, Kersting M, Khader YS, Khaledifar A, Khalili D, Kheiri B, Kheradmand M, Khosravi A, Kiechl-Kohlendorfer U, Kiechl SJ, Kiechl S, Kingston A, Klakk H, Klanova J, Knoflach M, Kolsteren P, König J, Korpelainen R, Korrovits P, Kos J, Koskinen S, Kowlessur S, Koziel S, Kriemler S, Kristensen PL, Kromhout D, Kubinova R, Kujala UM, Kulimbet M, Kurjata P, Kyobutungi C, La QN, Labadarios D, Lachat C, Laid Y, Lall L, Lankila T, Lanska V, Lappas G, Larijani B, Latt TS, Laurenzi M, Lehmann N, Lehtimäki T, Lemogoum D, Leung GM, Li Y, Lima-Costa MF, Lin HH, Lind L, Lissner L, Liu X, Lopez-Garcia E, Lopez T, Lozano JE, Luksiene D, Lundqvist A, Lunet N, Lustigová M, Machado-Coelho GLL, Machado-Rodrigues AM, Macia E, Macieira LM, Madar AA, Maestre GE, Maggi S, Magliano DJ, Magriplis E, Mahasampath G, Maire B, Makdisse M, Malekpour MR, Malekzadeh F, Malekzadeh R, Mallikharjuna Rao K, Malyutina S, Maniego LV, Manios Y, Mannix MI, Mansour-Ghanaei F, Manzato E, Margozzini P, Mariño J, Marques LP, Martorell R, Mascarenhas LP, Masinaei M, Mathiesen EB, Matsha TE, Mc Donald Posso AJ, McFarlane SR, McGarvey ST, Mediene Benchekor S, Mehlig K, Mehrparvar AH, Melgarejo JD, Méndez F, Menezes AMB, Mereke A, Meshram II, Meto DT, Minderico CS, Mini GK, Miquel JF, Miranda JJ, Mirjalili MR, Modesti PA, Moghaddam SS, Mohamed MK, Mohammad K, Mohammadi MR, Mohammadi Z, Mohammadifard N, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mohan V, Mohd Yusoff MF, Mohebbi I, Møller NC, Molnár D, Momenan A, Mondo CK, Montenegro Mendoza RA, Monterrubio-Flores E, Moosazadeh M, Moradpour F, Morejon A, Moreno LA, Morgan K, Morin SN, Moslem A, Mosquera M, Mossakowska M, Mostafa A, Mostafavi SA, Motlagh ME, Motta J, Msyamboza KP, Mu TT, Muiesan ML, Mursu J, Musa KI, Mustafa N, Muyer MTMC, Nabipour I, Nagel G, Naidu BM, Najafi F, Námešná J, Nangia VB, Naseri T, Neelapaichit N, Nejatizadeh A, Nenko I, Nervi F, Ng TP, Nguyen CT, Nguyen QN, Ni MY, Nie P, Nieto-Martínez RE, Ninomiya T, Noale M, Noboa OA, Noto D, Nsour MA, Nuhoğlu I, O’Neill TW, Odili AN, Oh K, Ohtsuka R, Omar MA, Onat A, Ong SK, Onodugo O, Ordunez P, Ornelas R, Ortiz PJ, Osmond C, Ostovar A, Otero JA, Ottendahl CB, Otu A, Owusu-Dabo E, Palmieri L, Pan WH, Panda-Jonas S, Panza F, Paoli M, Park S, Parsaeian M, Patel ND, Pechlaner R, Pećin I, Pedro JM, Peixoto SV, Peltonen M, Pereira AC, Pessôa dos Prazeres TM, Peykari N, Phall MC, Pham ST, Phan HH, Pichardo RN, Pikhart H, Pilav A, Piler P, Pitakaka F, Piwonska A, Pizarro AN, Plans-Rubió P, Plata S, Porta M, Poudyal A, Pourfarzi F, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Pradeepa R, Providencia R, Puder JJ, Puhakka S, Punab M, Qorbani M, Quintana HK, Quoc Bao T, Rahimikazerooni S, Raitakari O, Ramirez-Zea M, Ramke J, Ramos R, Rampal L, Rampal S, Rangel Reina DA, Rashidi MM, Redon J, Renner JDP, Reuter CP, Revilla L, Rezaei N, Rezaianzadeh A, Rigo F, Roa RG, Robinson L, Rodríguez-Artalejo F, Rodriguez-Perez MDC, Rodríguez-Villamizar LA, Rodríguez AY, Roggenbuck U, Rohloff P, Romeo EL, Rosengren A, Rubinstein A, Rust P, Rutkowski M, Sabbaghi H, Sachdev HS, Sadjadi A, Safarpour AR, Safi S, Safiri S, Saghi MH, Saidi O, Saki N, Šalaj S, Salanave B, Salonen JT, Salvetti M, Sánchez-Abanto J, Santos DA, Santos LC, Santos MP, Santos TR, Saramies JL, Sardinha LB, Sarrafzadegan N, Saum KU, Sbaraini M, Scazufca M, Schaan BD, Scheidt-Nave C, Schipf S, Schmidt CO, Schöttker B, Schramm S, Sebert S, Sedaghattalab M, Sein AA, Sepanlou SG, Sewpaul R, Shamah-Levy T, Shamshirgaran SM, Sharafkhah M, Sharma SK, Sharman A, Shayanrad A, Shayesteh AA, Shimizu-Furusawa H, Shiri R, Shrestha N, Si-Ramlee K, Silva DAS, Simon M, Simons J, Simons LA, Sjöström M, Slowikowska-Hilczer J, Slusarczyk P, Smeeth L, Sobngwi E, Söderberg S, Soemantri A, Sofat R, Solfrizzi V, Somi MH, Soumaré A, Sousa-Poza A, Sparrenberger K, Staessen JA, Stavreski B, Steene-Johannessen J, Stehle P, Stein AD, Stessman J, Stokwiszewski J, Stronks K, Suarez-Ortegón MF, Suebsamran P, Sundström J, Suriyawongpaisal P, Sylva RC, Szklo M, Tamosiunas A, Tarawneh MR, Tarqui-Mamani CB, Taylor A, Taylor J, Tello T, Thankappan KR, Theobald H, Theodoridis X, Thomas N, Thrift AG, Timmermans EJ, Tjandrarini DH, Tolonen HK, Tolstrup JS, Tomaszewski M, Topbas M, Torres-Collado L, Traissac P, Triantafyllou A, Tuitele J, Tuliakova AM, Tulloch-Reid MK, Tuomainen TP, Tzala E, Tzourio C, Ueda P, Ugel E, Ukoli FAM, Ulmer H, Uusitalo HMT, Valdivia G, van den Born BJ, Van der Heyden J, Van Minh H, van Rossem L, Van Schoor NM, van Valkengoed IGM, van Zutphen EM, Vanderschueren D, Vanuzzo D, Vasan SK, Vega T, Velasquez-Melendez G, Verstraeten R, Viet L, Villalpando S, Vioque J, Virtanen JK, Viswanathan B, Voutilainen A, Wan Bebakar WM, Wan Mohamud WN, Wang C, Wang N, Wang Q, Wang YX, Wang YW, Wannamethee SG, Webster-Kerr K, Wedderkopp N, Wei W, Westbury LD, Whincup PH, Widhalm K, Widyahening IS, Więcek A, Wilks RJ, Willeit J, Willeit P, Wilsgaard T, Wojtyniak B, Wong A, Wong EB, Woodward M, Wu FC, Xu H, Xu L, Yaacob NA, Yan L, Yan W, Yoosefi M, Yoshihara A, Younger-Coleman NO, Yu YL, Yu Y, Yusoff AF, Zainuddin AA, Zamani F, Zambon S, Zampelas A, Zaw KK, Zeljkovic Vrkic T, Zeng Y, Zhang ZY, Zholdin B, Zimmet P, Zitt E, Zoghlami N, Zuñiga Cisneros J, Ezzati M. Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c. Nat Med 2023; 29:2885-2901. [PMID: 37946056 PMCID: PMC10667106 DOI: 10.1038/s41591-023-02610-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2023] [Accepted: 09/25/2023] [Indexed: 11/12/2023]
Abstract
Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance.
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Guthold R, Kann L, Bhatti L, Abduvahobov P, Ansong J, Atkinson U, Baltag V, Caffe S, Caixeta R, Diallo CB, Fouad H, Haddad S, Hachri H, Jaggi JA, Joshi P, Karna P, Louazani SA, Mbola Mbassi S, Mehta R, Mudgal Y, Nigg CR, Okely AD, Ondarsuhu D, Ouaourir T, Trhari FZ, Riley LM. Effectiveness of a participatory approach to develop school health interventions in four low resource cities: study protocol of the 'empowering adolescents to lead change using health data' cluster randomised controlled trial. BMJ Open 2023; 13:e071353. [PMID: 37407059 PMCID: PMC10335517 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-071353] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2022] [Accepted: 06/14/2023] [Indexed: 07/07/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Comprehensive local data on adolescent health are often lacking, particularly in lower resource settings. Furthermore, there are knowledge gaps around which interventions are effective to support healthy behaviours. This study generates health information for students from cities in four middle-income countries to plan, implement and subsequently evaluate a package of interventions to improve health outcomes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS We will conduct a cluster randomised controlled trial in schools in Fez, Morocco; Jaipur, India; Saint Catherine Parish, Jamaica; and Sekondi-Takoradi, Ghana. In each city, approximately 30 schools will be randomly selected and assigned to the control or intervention arm. Baseline data collection includes three components. First, a Global School Health Policies and Practices Survey (G-SHPPS) to be completed by principals of all selected schools. Second, a Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) to be administered to a target sample of n=3153 13-17 years old students of randomly selected classes of these schools, including questions on alcohol, tobacco and drug use, diet, hygiene, mental health, physical activity, protective factors, sexual behaviours, violence and injury. Third, a study validating the GSHS physical activity questions against wrist-worn accelerometry in one randomly selected class in each control school (n approximately 300 students per city). Intervention schools will develop a suite of interventions using a participatory approach driven by students and involving parents/guardians, teachers and community stakeholders. Interventions will aim to change existing structures and policies at schools to positively influence students' behaviour, using the collected data and guided by the framework for Making Every School a Health Promoting School. Outcomes will be assessed for differential change after a 2-year follow-up. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION The study was approved by WHO's Research Ethics Review Committee; by the Jodhpur School of Public Health's Institutional Review Board for Jaipur, India; by the Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research Institutional Review Board for Sekondi-Takoradi, Ghana; by the Ministry of Health and Wellness' Advisory Panel on Ethics and Medico-Legal Affairs for St Catherine Parish, Jamaica, and by the Comité d'éthique pour la recherche biomédicale of the Université Mohammed V of Rabat for Fez, Morocco. Findings will be shared through open access publications and conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER NCT04963426.
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Affiliation(s)
- Regina Guthold
- Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health and Ageing Department, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Laura Kann
- Noncommunicable Diseases Department, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Lubna Bhatti
- Noncommunicable Diseases Department, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Parviz Abduvahobov
- Health and Education Section, Division for Peace and Sustainable Development, Education Sector, UNESCO, Paris, France
| | | | - Uki Atkinson
- National Council on Drug Abuse, Kingston, Jamaica
| | - Valentina Baltag
- Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health and Ageing Department, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Sonja Caffe
- Family, Health Promotion and Life Course, PAHO, Washington, Columbia, USA
| | - Roberta Caixeta
- Noncommunicable Diseases and Mental Health Department, PAHO, Washington, Columbia, USA
| | - Cheick Bady Diallo
- Universal Health Coverage/Communicable and Noncommunicable Diseases, WHO Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo
| | - Heba Fouad
- Noncommunicable Diseases and Mental Health Department, WHO Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Sally Haddad
- Department of Health Science, Institute of Sport Science, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | | | - Jeannine A Jaggi
- Department of Health Science, Institute of Sport Science, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | | | - Priya Karna
- WHO Country Office for India, New Delhi, India
| | | | - Symplice Mbola Mbassi
- Universal Health Coverage/Life Course, WHO Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo
| | - Rajesh Mehta
- WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia, New Delhi, India
| | | | - Claudio R Nigg
- Department of Health Science, Institute of Sport Science, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Anthony D Okely
- School of Health and Society, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Dolores Ondarsuhu
- Noncommunicable Diseases and Mental Health Department, PAHO, Washington, Columbia, USA
| | - Tahar Ouaourir
- Population Department, Ministry of Health, Rabat, Morocco
| | | | - Leanne M Riley
- Noncommunicable Diseases Department, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland
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EP, Jérome CS, Soto-Rojas VE, Soumaré A, Sousa-Poza A, Sovic S, Sparboe-Nilsen B, Sparrenberger K, Spencer PR, Spinelli A, Spiroski I, Staessen JA, Stamm H, Staub K, Stavreski B, Steene-Johannessen J, Stehle P, Stein AD, Stergiou GS, Stessman J, Stevanović R, Stieber J, Stöckl D, Stokwiszewski J, Stoyanova E, Stratton G, Stronks K, Strufaldi MW, Sturua L, Suárez-Medina R, Suka M, Sun CA, Sun L, Sundström J, Sung YT, Sunyer J, Suriyawongpaisal P, Sweis NWG, Swinburn BA, Sy RG, Sylva RC, Szklo M, Szponar L, Tabone L, Tai ES, Tambalis KD, Tammesoo ML, Tamosiunas A, Tan EJ, Tang X, Tanrygulyyeva M, Tanser F, Tao Y, Tarawneh MR, Tarp J, Tarqui-Mamani CB, Braunerová RT, Taylor A, Taylor J, Tchibindat F, Te Velde S, Tebar WR, Tell GS, Tello T, Tham YC, Thankappan KR, Theobald H, Theodoridis X, Thomas N, Thorand B, Thuesen BH, Tichá Ľ, Timmermans EJ, Tjandrarini DH, Tjonneland A, Tolonen HK, Tolstrup JS, Topbas M, Topór-Mądry R, Torheim LE, Tormo MJ, Tornaritis MJ, Torrent M, Torres-Collado L, Toselli S, Touloumi G, Traissac P, Tran TTH, Tremblay MS, Triantafyllou A, Trichopoulos D, Trichopoulou A, Trinh OTH, Trivedi A, Tsao YH, Tshepo L, Tsigga M, Tsintavis P, Tsugane S, Tuitele J, Tuliakova AM, Tulloch-Reid MK, Tullu F, Tuomainen TP, Tuomilehto J, Turley ML, Twig G, Tynelius P, Tzala E, Tzotzas T, Tzourio C, Ueda P, Ugel E, Ukoli FAM, Ulmer H, Unal B, Usupova Z, Uusitalo HMT, Uysal N, Vaitkeviciute J, Valdivia G, Vale S, Valvi D, van Dam RM, van den Born BJ, Van der Heyden J, van der Schouw YT, Van Herck K, Van Lippevelde W, Van Minh H, Van Schoor NM, van Valkengoed IGM, Vanderschueren D, Vanuzzo D, Varbo A, Varela-Moreiras G, Vargas LN, Varona-Pérez P, Vasan SK, Vasques DG, Vega T, Veidebaum T, Velasquez-Melendez G, Velika B, Verloigne M, Veronesi G, Verschuren WMM, Victora CG, Viegi G, Viet L, Vik FN, Vilar M, Villalpando S, Vioque J, Virtanen JK, Visvikis-Siest S, Viswanathan B, Vladulescu M, Vlasoff T, Vocanec D, Vollenweider P, Völzke H, Voutilainen A, Vrijheid M, Vrijkotte TGM, Wade AN, Waldhör T, Walton J, Wambiya EOA, Bebakar WMW, Mohamud WNW, de Souza Wanderley Júnior R, Wang MD, Wang N, Wang Q, Wang X, Wang YX, Wang YW, Wannamethee SG, Wareham N, Weber A, Webster-Kerr K, Wedderkopp N, Weghuber D, Wei W, Weres A, Werner B, Westbury LD, Whincup PH, Wickramasinghe K, Widhalm K, Widyahening IS, Więcek A, Wild PS, Wilks RJ, Willeit J, Willeit P, Williams J, Wilsgaard T, Wojciech R, Wojtyniak B, Wolf K, Wong-McClure RA, Wong A, Wong EB, Wong JE, Wong TY, Woo J, Woodward M, Wu FC, Wu HY, Wu J, Wu LJ, Wu S, Wyszyńska J, Xu H, Xu L, Yaacob NA, Yamborisut U, Yan W, Yang L, Yang X, Yang Y, Yardim N, Yasuharu T, García MY, Yiallouros PK, Yngve A, Yoosefi M, Yoshihara A, You QS, You SL, Younger-Coleman NO, Yu YL, Yu Y, Yusof SM, Yusoff AF, Zaccagni L, Zafiropulos V, Zainuddin AA, Zakavi SR, Zamani F, Zambon S, Zampelas A, Zamrazilová H, Zapata ME, Zargar AH, Zaw KK, Zayed AA, Zdrojewski T, Żegleń M, Zejglicova K, Vrkic TZ, Zeng Y, Zhang L, Zhang ZY, Zhao D, Zhao MH, Zhao W, Zhecheva YV, Zhen S, Zheng W, Zheng Y, Zholdin B, Zhou M, Zhu D, Zins M, Zitt E, Zocalo Y, Zoghlami N, Cisneros JZ, Zuziak M, Bhutta ZA, Black RE, Ezzati M. Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents' growth and development. Nature 2023; 615:874-883. [PMID: 36991188 PMCID: PMC10060164 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-05772-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2022] [Accepted: 01/30/2023] [Indexed: 03/31/2023]
Abstract
Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1-6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5-19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m-2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.
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Bruni L, Serrano B, Roura E, Alemany L, Cowan M, Herrero R, Poljak M, Murillo R, Broutet N, Riley LM, de Sanjose S. Cervical cancer screening programmes and age-specific coverage estimates for 202 countries and territories worldwide: a review and synthetic analysis. Lancet Glob Health 2022; 10:e1115-e1127. [PMID: 35839811 PMCID: PMC9296658 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(22)00241-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 98] [Impact Index Per Article: 49.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2021] [Revised: 05/09/2022] [Accepted: 05/11/2022] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cervical cancer screening coverage is a key monitoring indicator of the WHO cervical cancer elimination plan. We present global, regional, and national cervical screening coverage estimates against the backdrop of the 70% coverage target set by WHO. METHODS In this review and synthetic analysis, we searched scientific literature, government websites, and official documentation to identify official national recommendations and coverage data for cervical cancer screening for the 194 WHO member states and eight associated countries and territories published from database inception until Oct 30, 2020, supplemented with a formal WHO country consultation from Nov 27, 2020, to Feb 12, 2021. We extracted data on the year of introduction of recommendations, the existence of individual invitation to participate, financing of screening tests, primary screening and triage tests used, recommended ages and screening intervals, use of self-sampling, and use of screen-and-treat approaches. We also collected coverage data, either administrative or survey-based, as disaggregated as possible by age and for any available screening interval. According to data completeness and representativeness, different statistical models were developed to produce national age-specific coverages by screening interval, which were transformed into single-age datapoints. Missing data were imputed. Estimates were applied to the 2019 population and aggregated by region and income level. FINDINGS We identified recommendations for cervical screening in 139 (69%) of 202 countries and territories. Cytology was the primary screening test in 109 (78%) of 139 countries. 48 (35%) of 139 countries recommended primary HPV-based screening. Visual inspection with acetic acid was the most recommended test in resource-limited settings. Estimated worldwide coverage in women aged 30-49 years in 2019 was 15% in the previous year, 28% in the previous 3 years, and 32% in the previous 5 years, and 36% ever in lifetime. An estimated 1·6 billion (67%) of 2·3 billion women aged 20-70 years, including 662 million (64%) of 1·0 billion women aged 30-49 years, had never been screened for cervical cancer. 133 million (84%) of 158 million women aged 30-49 years living in high-income countries had been screened ever in lifetime, compared with 194 million (48%) of 404 million women in upper-middle-income countries, 34 million (9%) of 397 million women in lower-middle-income countries, and 8 million (11%) of 74 million in low-income countries. INTERPRETATION Two in three women aged 30-49 years have never been screened for cervical cancer. Roll-out of screening is very low in low-income and middle-income countries, where the burden of disease is highest. The priority of the WHO elimination campaign should be to increase both screening coverage and treatment of detected lesions; however, expanding the efforts of surveillance systems in both coverage and quality control are major challenges to achieving the WHO elimination target. FUNDING Instituto de Salud Carlos III, European Regional Development Fund, Secretariat for Universities and Research of the Department of Business and Knowledge of the Government of Catalonia, and Horizon 2020. TRANSLATIONS For the French, Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laia Bruni
- Cancer Epidemiology Research Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid, Spain.
| | - Beatriz Serrano
- Cancer Epidemiology Research Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid, Spain
| | - Esther Roura
- Cancer Epidemiology Research Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid, Spain
| | - Laia Alemany
- Cancer Epidemiology Research Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid, Spain
| | - Melanie Cowan
- Surveillance, Monitoring, and Reporting Unit, Department of Noncommunicable Diseases, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Rolando Herrero
- Agencia Costarricense de Investigaciones Biomédicas, Fundación INCIENSA, San José, Costa Rica; Early Detection and Prevention Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, WHO, Lyon, France
| | - Mario Poljak
- Institute of Microbiology and Immunology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - Raul Murillo
- Early Detection and Prevention Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, WHO, Lyon, France; Centro Javeriano de Oncología, Hospital Universitario San Ignacio, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Nathalie Broutet
- Department of Reproductive Health and Research, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Leanne M Riley
- Surveillance, Monitoring, and Reporting Unit, Department of Noncommunicable Diseases, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Silvia de Sanjose
- National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, USA; ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
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Abstract
An iodide-accelerated, palladium-catalyzed C-P bond-forming reaction of aryl nonaflates is described. The protocol was optimized for the synthesis of aryl phosphine oxides and was found to be tolerant of a wide range of aryl nonaflates. The general nature of this transformation was established with coupling to other P(O)H compounds for the synthesis of aryl phosphonates and an aryl phosphinate. The straightforward synthesis of stable, isolable aryl nonaflates, in combination with the rapid C-P bond-forming reaction allows facile preparation of aryl phosphorus target compounds from readily available phenol starting materials. The synthetic utility of this general strategy was demonstrated with the efficient preparation of an organic light-emitting diode (OLED) material and a phosphonophenylalanine mimic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Holly McErlain
- School of Chemistry, The
Joseph Black Building, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, United Kingdom
| | - Leanne M. Riley
- School of Chemistry, The
Joseph Black Building, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, United Kingdom
| | - Andrew Sutherland
- School of Chemistry, The
Joseph Black Building, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, United Kingdom
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7
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Abstract
The positron emission tomography imaging agents cis- and trans-4-[18F]fluoro-l-proline are used for the detection of numerous diseases such as pulmonary fibrosis and various carcinomas. These imaging agents are typically prepared by nucleophilic fluorination of 4-hydroxy-l-proline derivatives, with [18F]fluoride, followed by deprotection. Although effective radiofluorination reactions have been developed, the overall radiosynthesis process is suboptimal due to deprotection methods that are performed manually, require multiple steps, or involve harsh conditions. Here we describe the development of two synthetic routes that allow access to precursors, which undergo highly selective radiofluorination reactions and rapid deprotection, under mild acidic conditions. These methods were found to be compatible with automation, avoiding manual handling of radioactive intermediates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Timaeus
E. F. Morgan
- BHF-University
Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University
of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4TJ, United Kingdom
| | - Leanne M. Riley
- WestCHEM,
School of Chemistry, University of Glasgow, The Joseph Black Building, Glasgow G12 8QQ, United Kingdom
| | - Adriana A. S. Tavares
- BHF-University
Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University
of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4TJ, United Kingdom
| | - Andrew Sutherland
- WestCHEM,
School of Chemistry, University of Glasgow, The Joseph Black Building, Glasgow G12 8QQ, United Kingdom
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Zhou B, Carrillo-Larco RM, Danaei G, Riley LM, Paciorek CJ, Stevens GA, Gregg EW, Bennett JE, Solomon B, Singleton RK, Sophiea MK, Iurilli MLC, Lhoste VPF, Cowan MJ, Savin S, Woodward M, Balanova Y, Cifkova R, Damasceno A, Elliott P, Farzadfar F, He J, Ikeda N, Kengne AP, Khang YH, Kim HC, Laxmaiah A, Lin HH, Margozzini Maira P, Miranda JJ, Neuhauser H, Sundström J, Varghese C, Widyahening IS, Zdrojewski T, Abarca-Gómez L, Abdeen ZA, Abdul Rahim HF, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Acosta-Cazares B, Adams RJ, Aekplakorn W, Afsana K, Afzal S, Agdeppa IA, Aghazadeh-Attari J, Aguilar-Salinas CA, Agyemang C, Ahmad NA, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi N, Ahmadi N, Ahmadizar F, Ahmed SH, Ahrens W, Ajlouni K, Al-Raddadi R, Alarouj M, AlBuhairan F, AlDhukair S, Ali MM, Alkandari A, Alkerwi A, Allin K, Aly E, Amarapurkar DN, Amougou N, Amouyel P, Andersen LB, Anderssen SA, Anjana RM, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Ansong D, Aounallah-Skhiri H, Araújo J, Ariansen I, Aris T, Arku RE, Arlappa N, Aryal KK, Aspelund T, Assah FK, Assunção MCF, 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Capuano E, Capuano V, Cardoso VC, Carlsson AC, Carvalho J, Casanueva FF, Censi L, Cervantes-Loaiza M, Chadjigeorgiou CA, Chamukuttan S, Chan AW, Chan Q, Chaturvedi HK, Chaturvedi N, Chee ML, Chen CJ, Chen F, Chen H, Chen S, Chen Z, Cheng CY, Cheraghian B, Cherkaoui Dekkaki I, Chetrit A, Chien KL, Chiolero A, Chiou ST, Chirita-Emandi A, Chirlaque MD, Cho B, Christensen K, Christofaro DG, Chudek J, Cinteza E, Claessens F, Clarke J, Clays E, Cohen E, Concin H, Cooper C, Coppinger TC, Costanzo S, Cottel D, Cowell C, Craig CL, Crampin AC, Crujeiras AB, Cruz JJ, Csilla S, Cui L, Cureau FV, Cuschieri S, D'Arrigo G, d'Orsi E, Dallongeville J, Dankner R, Dantoft TM, Dauchet L, Davletov K, De Backer G, De Bacquer D, De Curtis A, de Gaetano G, De Henauw S, de Oliveira PD, De Ridder D, De Smedt D, Deepa M, Deev AD, DeGennaro VJ, Delisle H, Demarest S, Dennison E, Deschamps V, Dhimal M, Di Castelnuovo AF, Dias-da-Costa JS, Diaz A, Dickerson TT, Dika Z, Djalalinia S, Do HTP, Dobson AJ, Donfrancesco C, Donoso SP, Döring A, Dorobantu M, Dörr M, Doua K, Dragano N, Drygas W, Duante CA, Duboz P, Duda RB, Dulskiene V, Dushpanova A, Džakula A, Dzerve V, Dziankowska-Zaborszczyk E, Eddie R, Eftekhar E, Eggertsen R, Eghtesad S, Eiben G, Ekelund U, El-Khateeb M, El Ati J, Eldemire-Shearer D, Eliasen M, Elosua R, Erasmus RT, Erbel R, Erem C, Eriksen L, Eriksson JG, Escobedo-de la Peña J, Eslami S, Esmaeili A, Evans A, Faeh D, Fakhretdinova AA, Fall CH, Faramarzi E, Farjam M, Fattahi MR, Fawwad A, Felix-Redondo FJ, Felix SB, Ferguson TS, Fernandes RA, Fernández-Bergés D, Ferrante D, Ferrao T, Ferrari M, Ferrario MM, Ferreccio C, Ferreira HS, Ferrer E, Ferrieres J, Figueiró TH, Fink G, Fischer K, Foo LH, Forsner M, Fouad HM, Francis DK, Franco MDC, Frikke-Schmidt R, Frontera G, Fuchs FD, Fuchs SC, Fujita Y, Fumihiko M, Furdela V, Furer A, Furusawa T, Gaciong Z, Galbarczyk A, Galenkamp H, Galvano F, Gao J, Gao P, Garcia-de-la-Hera M, Garcia P, Gareta D, Garnett SP, Gaspoz JM, Gasull M, Gazzinelli A, Gehring U, Geleijnse JM, George R, Ghanbari A, Ghasemi E, Gheorghe-Fronea OF, Ghimire A, Gialluisi A, Giampaoli S, Gieger C, Gill TK, Giovannelli J, Gironella G, Giwercman A, Gkiouras K, Goldberg M, Goldsmith RA, Gomez LF, Gomula A, Gonçalves H, Gonçalves M, Gonçalves Cordeiro da Silva B, Gonzalez-Chica DA, Gonzalez-Gross M, González-Rivas JP, González-Villalpando C, González-Villalpando ME, Gonzalez AR, Gorbea MB, Gottrand F, Graff-Iversen S, Grafnetter D, Grajda A, Grammatikopoulou MG, Gregor RD, Grodzicki T, Grosso G, Gruden G, Gu D, Guan OP, Gudmundsson EF, Gudnason V, Guerrero R, Guessous I, Guimaraes AL, Gulliford MC, Gunnlaugsdottir J, Gunter MJ, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gureje O, Gurzkowska B, Gutierrez L, Gutzwiller F, Ha S, Hadaegh F, Haghshenas R, Hakimi H, Halkjær J, Hambleton IR, Hamzeh B, Hange D, Hanif AAM, Hantunen S, Hao J, Hardman CM, Hari Kumar R, Hashemi-Shahri SM, Hata J, Haugsgjerd T, Hayes AJ, He Y, Heier M, Hendriks ME, Henrique RDS, Henriques A, Hernandez Cadena L, Herqutanto, Herrala S, Heshmat R, Hill AG, Ho SY, Ho SC, Hobbs M, Holdsworth M, Homayounfar R, Horasan Dinc G, Horimoto ARVR, Hormiga CM, Horta BL, Houti L, Howitt C, Htay TT, Htet AS, Htike MMT, Hu Y, Huerta JM, Huhtaniemi IT, Huiart L, Huisman M, Husseini AS, Huybrechts I, Hwalla N, Iacoviello L, Iannone AG, Ibrahim MM, Ibrahim Wong N, Ikram MA, Iotova V, Irazola VE, Ishida T, Isiguzo GC, Islam M, Islam SMS, Iwasaki M, Jackson RT, Jacobs JM, Jaddou HY, Jafar T, James K, Jamrozik K, Janszky I, Janus E, Jarvelin MR, Jasienska G, Jelaković A, Jelaković B, Jennings G, Jha AK, Jiang CQ, Jimenez RO, Jöckel KH, Joffres M, Johansson M, Jokelainen JJ, Jonas JB, Jørgensen T, Joshi P, Joukar F, Jóżwiak J, Juolevi A, Jurak G, Jureša V, Kaaks R, Kafatos A, Kajantie EO, Kalmatayeva Z, Kalpourtzi N, Kalter-Leibovici O, Kampmann FB, Kannan S, Karaglani E, Kårhus LL, Karki KB, Katibeh M, Katz J, Kauhanen J, Kaur P, Kavousi M, Kazakbaeva GM, Keil U, Keinan Boker L, 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Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants. Lancet 2021; 398:957-980. [PMID: 34450083 PMCID: PMC8446938 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01330-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 938] [Impact Index Per Article: 312.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2021] [Revised: 06/01/2021] [Accepted: 06/03/2021] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories. METHODS We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age. FINDINGS The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran. INTERPRETATION Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings. FUNDING WHO.
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Velika B, Veronesi G, Verschuren WMM, Victora CG, Viegi G, Viet L, Villalpando S, Vineis P, Vioque J, Virtanen JK, Visser M, Visvikis-Siest S, Viswanathan B, Vladulescu M, Vlasoff T, Vocanec D, Vollenweider P, Völzke H, Voutilainen A, Voutilainen S, Vrijheid M, Vrijkotte TGM, Wade AN, Wagner A, Waldhör T, Walton J, Wambiya EOA, Bebakar WMW, Mohamud WNW, de Souza Wanderley Júnior R, Wang MD, Wang N, Wang Q, Wang X, Wang YX, Wang YW, Wannamethee SG, Wareham N, Weber A, Wedderkopp N, Weerasekera D, Weghuber D, Wei W, Weres A, Werner B, Whincup PH, Widhalm K, Widyahening IS, Wiecek A, Wilks RJ, Willeit J, Willeit P, Williams J, Wilsgaard T, Wojtyniak B, Wong-McClure RA, Wong A, Wong JE, Wong TY, Woo J, Woodward M, Wu FC, Wu J, Wu LJ, Wu S, Xu H, Xu L, Yaacob NA, Yamborisut U, Yan W, Yang L, Yang X, Yang Y, Yardim N, Yaseri M, Yasuharu T, Ye X, Yiallouros PK, Yoosefi M, Yoshihara A, You QS, You SL, Younger-Coleman NO, Md Yusof S, Yusoff AF, Zaccagni L, Zafiropulos V, Zainuddin AA, Zakavi SR, Zamani F, Zambon S, Zampelas A, Zamrazilová H, Zapata ME, Zargar AH, Ko Zaw K, Zdrojewski T, Zejglicova K, Vrkic TZ, Zeng Y, Zhang L, Zhang ZY, Zhao D, Zhao MH, Zhao W, Zhen S, Zheng W, Zheng Y, Zholdin B, Zhou M, Zhu D, Zins M, Zitt E, Zocalo Y, Cisneros JZ, Zuziak M, Ezzati M, Filippi S. Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight. eLife 2021; 10:e60060. [PMID: 33685583 PMCID: PMC7943191 DOI: 10.7554/elife.60060] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2020] [Accepted: 01/07/2021] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Nayu Ikeda
- National Institutes of Biomedical Innovation, Health and Nutrition
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- Capital Medical University Beijing An Zhen Hospital
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- University of Copenhagen
- Copenhagen University Hospital
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Ali Ahmadi
- Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences
| | | | | | | | | | - Kamel Ajlouni
- National Center for Diabetes, Endocrinology and Genetics
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- World Health Organization Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean
| | | | - Parisa Amiri
- Research Center for Social Determinants of Health
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Joana Araújo
- Institute of Public Health of the University of Porto
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Shina Avi
- Tel-Aviv University
- Hebrew University of Jerusalem
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- Baqai Institute of Diabetology and Endocrinology
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Judith Benedics
- Federal Ministry of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Hongsheng Bi
- Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine
| | - Yufang Bi
- Shanghai Jiao-Tong University School of Medicine
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- World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe
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- Council for Agricultural Research and Economics
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- The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research
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- Canadian Fitness and Lifestyle Research Institute
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- The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research
| | | | | | | | - Luc Dauchet
- University of Lille
- Lille University Hospital
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- Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control
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- Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna
- Al-Farabi Kazakh National University
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- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute
- University of Basel
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- World Health Organization Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean
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- Victor Babes University of Medicine and Pharmacy Timisoara
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- Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale
- Paris University
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- Capital Medical University Beijing Tongren Hospital
| | | | - Rajeev Gupta
- Eternal Heart Care Centre and Research Institute
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- Beijing Institute of Ophthalmology
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Yuan He
- National Research Institute for Health and Family Planning
| | - Yuna He
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Ana Henriques
- Institute of Public Health of the University of Porto
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- Institute of Molecular and Clinical Ophthalmology Basel
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- French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Joanne Katz
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Roya Kelishadi
- Research Institute for Primordial Prevention of Non-communicable Disease
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- PASs Hirszfeld Institute of Immunology and Experimental Therapy
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- French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development
| | - Vera Lanska
- Institute for Clinical and Experimental Medicine
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- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Lijuan Liu
- Capital Medical University Beijing Tongren Hospital
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- National Research Institute for Health and Family Planning
| | | | | | | | | | - Stefania Maggi
- Institute of Neuroscience of the National Research Council
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- French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development
| | | | | | - Päivi Mäki
- Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare
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- CIBERCV
- Institut Hospital del Mar d'Investigacions Mèdiques
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- Capital Institute of Pediatrics
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - GK Mini
- Women’s Social and Health Studies Foundation
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- University of Strasbourg
- Strasbourg University Hospital
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- Instituto Conmemorativo Gorgas de Estudios de la Salud
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- Banska Bystrica Regional Authority of Public Health
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Keiu Nelis
- National Institute for Health Development
| | - Liis Nelis
- National Institute for Health Development
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Yury P Nikitin
- SB RAS Federal Research Center Institute of Cytology and Genetics
| | - Guang Ning
- Shanghai Jiao-Tong University School of Medicine
| | | | | | - Marianna Noale
- Institute of Neuroscience of the National Research Council
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Eha Nurk
- National Institute for Health Development
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Kyungwon Oh
- Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
| | | | - Claes Ohlsson
- University of Gothenburg
- Sahlgrenska University Hospital
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Domenico Palli
- Institute for Cancer Research, Prevention and Clinical Network
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Francesco Panza
- IRCCS Ente Ospedaliero Specializzato in Gastroenterologia S. de Bellis
| | | | | | - Suyeon Park
- Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
| | | | | | - Ionela M Pascanu
- University of Medicine, Pharmacy, Science and Technology of Târgu Mures
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Iris Pigeot
- Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology - BIPS
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Raluca M Pop
- University of Medicine, Pharmacy, Science and Technology of Târgu Mures
| | | | - Miquel Porta
- Institut Hospital del Mar d'Investigacions Mèdiques
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Maria Puiu
- Victor Babes University of Medicine and Pharmacy Timisoara
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Manu Raj
- Amrita Institute of Medical Sciences
| | | | | | - Ivo Rakovac
- World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe
| | | | | | | | | | - Rafel Ramos
- Institut Universitari d'Investigació en Atenció Primària Jordi Gol
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Ana Rito
- National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Paola Russo
- Institute of Food Sciences of the National Research Council
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Nader Saki
- Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Savvas Savva
- Research and Education Institute of Child Health
| | - Mathilde Savy
- French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Aletta E Schutte
- University of New South Wales
- The George Institute for Global Health
| | | | | | | | - Abhijit Sen
- Center for Oral Health Services and Research Mid-Norway
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Alfonso Siani
- Institute of Food Sciences of the National Research Council
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Liam Smeeth
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Igor Spiroski
- Institute of Public Health
- Ss. Cyril and Methodius University
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Lela Sturua
- National Center for Disease Control and Public Health
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Lucjan Szponar
- National Institute of Public Health – National Institute of Hygiene
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Pierre Traissac
- French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development
| | | | | | | | - Oanh TH Trinh
- University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Gilad Twig
- Tel-Aviv University
- Hebrew University of Jerusalem
| | | | | | | | | | - Eunice Ugel
- Universidad Centro-Occidental Lisandro Alvarado
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Anette Varbo
- Copenhagen University Hospital
- University of Copenhagen
| | | | | | | | - Tomas Vega
- Consejería de Sanidad Junta de Castilla y León
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Lucie Viet
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Ningli Wang
- Capital Medical University Beijing Tongren Hospital
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Adelheid Weber
- Federal Ministry of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Bogdan Wojtyniak
- National Institute of Public Health - National Institute of Hygiene
| | | | | | | | | | - Jean Woo
- The Chinese University of Hong Kong
| | | | | | - Jianfeng Wu
- Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine
| | | | | | - Haiquan Xu
- Institute of Food and Nutrition Development of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs
| | - Liang Xu
- Beijing Institute of Ophthalmology
| | | | | | - Weili Yan
- Children's Hospital of Fudan University
| | | | | | - Yang Yang
- Shanghai Educational Development Co. Ltd
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Yi Zeng
- Peking University
- Duke University
| | | | | | - Dong Zhao
- Capital Medical University Beijing An Zhen Hospital
| | | | - Wenhua Zhao
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
| | - Shiqi Zhen
- Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
| | | | | | | | - Maigeng Zhou
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
| | - Dan Zhu
- Inner Mongolia Medical University
| | - Marie Zins
- Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale
- Paris University
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Rodriguez-Martinez A, Zhou B, Sophiea MK, Bentham J, Paciorek CJ, Iurilli MLC, Carrillo-Larco RM, Bennett JE, Di Cesare M, Taddei C, Bixby H, Stevens GA, Riley LM, Cowan MJ, Savin S, Danaei G, Chirita-Emandi A, Kengne AP, Khang YH, Laxmaiah A, Malekzadeh R, Miranda JJ, Moon JS, Popovic SR, Sørensen TIA, Soric M, Starc G, Zainuddin AA, Gregg EW, Bhutta ZA, Black R, Abarca-Gómez L, Abdeen ZA, Abdrakhmanova S, Abdul Ghaffar S, Abdul Rahim HF, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Abubakar Garba J, Acosta-Cazares B, Adams RJ, Aekplakorn W, Afsana K, Afzal S, Agdeppa IA, Aghazadeh-Attari J, Aguilar-Salinas CA, Agyemang C, Ahmad MH, Ahmad NA, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi N, Ahmed SH, Ahrens W, Aitmurzaeva G, Ajlouni K, Al-Hazzaa HM, Al-Othman AR, Al-Raddadi R, Alarouj M, AlBuhairan F, AlDhukair S, Ali MM, Alkandari A, Alkerwi A, Allin K, Alvarez-Pedrerol M, Aly E, Amarapurkar DN, Amiri P, Amougou N, Amouyel P, Andersen LB, Anderssen SA, Ängquist L, Anjana RM, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Aounallah-Skhiri H, Araújo J, Ariansen I, Aris T, Arku RE, Arlappa N, Aryal KK, Aspelund T, Assah FK, Assunção MCF, Aung MS, Auvinen J, Avdicová M, Azevedo A, Azimi-Nezhad M, Azizi F, Azmin M, Babu BV, Bæksgaard Jørgensen M, Baharudin A, Bahijri S, Baker JL, Balakrishna N, Bamoshmoosh M, Banach M, Bandosz P, Banegas JR, Baran J, Barbagallo CM, Barceló A, Barkat A, Barros AJD, Barros MVG, Basit A, Bastos JLD, Bata I, Batieha AM, Batista RL, Battakova Z, Batyrbek A, Baur LA, Beaglehole R, Bel-Serrat S, Belavendra A, Ben Romdhane H, Benedics J, Benet M, Bennett JE, Berkinbayev S, Bernabe-Ortiz A, Bernotiene G, Bettiol H, Bezerra J, Bhagyalaxmi A, Bharadwaj S, Bhargava SK, Bhutta ZA, Bi H, Bi Y, Bia D, Bika Lele EC, Bikbov MM, Bista B, Bjelica DJ, Bjerregaard P, Bjertness E, Bjertness MB, Björkelund C, Bloch KV, Blokstra A, Bo S, Bobak M, Boddy LM, Boehm BO, Boeing H, Boggia JG, Bogova E, Boissonnet CP, Bojesen SE, Bonaccio M, Bongard V, Bonilla-Vargas A, Bopp M, Borghs H, Bovet P, Braeckevelt L, Braeckman L, Bragt MCE, Brajkovich I, Branca F, Breckenkamp J, Breda J, Brenner H, Brewster LM, Brian GR, Brinduse L, Brophy S, Bruno G, Bueno-de-Mesquita HB, Bugge A, Buoncristiano M, Burazeri G, Burns C, Cabrera de León A, Cacciottolo J, Cai H, Cama T, Cameron C, Camolas J, Can G, Cândido APC, Cañete F, Capanzana MV, Capková N, Capuano E, Capuano V, Cardol M, Cardoso VC, Carlsson AC, Carmuega E, Carvalho J, Casajús JA, Casanueva FF, Celikcan E, Censi L, Cervantes-Loaiza M, Cesar JA, Chamukuttan S, Chan AW, Chan Q, Chaturvedi HK, Chaturvedi N, Che Abdul Rahim N, Chen CJ, Chen F, Chen H, Chen S, Chen Z, Cheng CY, Cheraghian B, Chetrit A, Chikova-Iscener E, Chiolero A, Chiou ST, Chirita-Emandi A, Chirlaque MD, Cho B, Christensen K, Christofaro DG, Chudek J, Cifkova R, Cilia M, Cinteza E, Claessens F, Clarke J, Clays E, Cohen E, Concin H, Confortin SC, Cooper C, Coppinger TC, Corpeleijn E, Costanzo S, Cottel D, Cowell C, Craig CL, Crampin AC, Crujeiras AB, Csilla S, Cucu AM, Cui L, Cureau FV, D'Arrigo G, d'Orsi E, Dacica L, Dal Re Saavedra MÁ, Dallongeville J, Damasceno A, Damsgaard CT, Danaei G, Dankner R, Dantoft TM, Dasgupta P, Dastgiri S, Dauchet L, Davletov K, De Backer G, De Bacquer D, de Gaetano G, De Henauw S, de Oliveira PD, De Ridder D, De Ridder K, de Rooij SR, De Smedt D, Deepa M, Deev AD, DeGennaro VJ, Dehghan A, Delisle H, Delpeuch F, Demarest S, Dennison E, Deren K, Deschamps V, Dhana K, Dhimal M, Di Castelnuovo AF, Dias-da-Costa JS, Díaz-Sánchez ME, Diaz A, Dika Z, Djalalinia S, Djordjic V, Do HTP, Dobson AJ, Donati MB, Donfrancesco C, Donoso SP, Döring A, Dorobantu M, Dorosty AR, Doua K, Drygas W, Duan JL, Duante CA, Duboz P, Duda RB, Duleva V, Dulskiene V, Dumith SC, Dushpanova A, Dzerve V, Dziankowska-Zaborszczyk E, Eddie R, Eftekhar E, Egbagbe EE, Eggertsen R, Eghtesad S, Eiben G, Ekelund U, El-Khateeb M, El Ati J, Eldemire-Shearer D, Eliasen M, Elliott P, Engle-Stone R, Enguerran M, Erasmus RT, Erbel R, Erem C, Eriksen L, Eriksson JG, Escobedo-de la Peña J, Eslami S, Esmaeili A, Evans A, Faeh D, Fakhretdinova AA, Fall CH, Faramarzi E, Farjam M, Farrugia Sant'Angelo V, Farzadfar F, Fattahi MR, Fawwad A, Felix-Redondo FJ, Ferguson TS, Fernandes RA, Fernández-Bergés D, Ferrante D, Ferrao T, Ferrari M, Ferrario MM, Ferreccio C, Ferrer E, Ferrieres J, Figueiró TH, Fijalkowska A, Fink G, Fischer K, Föger B, Foo LH, Forsner M, Fouad HM, Francis DK, Franco MDC, Franco OH, Frikke-Schmidt R, Frontera G, Fuchs FD, Fuchs SC, Fujiati II, Fujita Y, Fumihiko M, Furusawa T, Gaciong Z, Gafencu M, Galbarczyk A, Galenkamp H, Galeone D, Galfo M, Galvano F, Gao J, Garcia-de-la-Hera M, García-Solano M, Gareta D, Garnett SP, Gaspoz JM, Gasull M, Gaya ACA, Gaya AR, Gazzinelli A, Gehring U, Geiger H, Geleijnse JM, Ghanbari A, Ghasemi E, Gheorghe-Fronea OF, Giampaoli S, Gianfagna F, Gill TK, Giovannelli J, Gironella G, Giwercman A, Gkiouras K, Godos J, Gogen S, Goldsmith RA, Goltzman D, Gómez SF, Gomula A, Goncalves Cordeiro da Silva B, Gonçalves H, Gonzalez-Chica DA, Gonzalez-Gross M, González-Leon M, González-Rivas JP, González-Villalpando C, González-Villalpando ME, Gonzalez AR, Gottrand F, Graça AP, Graff-Iversen S, Grafnetter D, Grajda A, Grammatikopoulou MG, Gregor RD, Grodzicki T, Grøholt EK, Grøntved A, Grosso G, Gruden G, Gu D, Gualdi-Russo E, Guallar-Castillón P, Gualtieri A, Gudmundsson EF, Gudnason V, Guerrero R, Guessous I, Guimaraes AL, Gulliford MC, Gunnlaugsdottir J, Gunter MJ, Guo XH, Guo Y, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gureje O, Gurzkowska B, Gutiérrez-González E, Gutierrez L, Gutzwiller F, Ha S, Hadaegh F, Hadjigeorgiou CA, Haghshenas R, Hakimi H, Halkjær J, Hambleton IR, Hamzeh B, Hange D, Hanif AAM, Hantunen S, Hari Kumar R, Hashemi-Shahri SM, Hassapidou M, Hata J, Haugsgjerd T, Hayes AJ, He J, He Y, He Y, Heidinger-Felso R, Heinen M, Hejgaard T, Hendriks ME, Henrique RDS, Henriques A, Hernandez Cadena L, Herrala S, Herrera VM, Herter-Aeberli I, Heshmat R, Hill AG, Ho SY, Ho SC, Hobbs M, Hofman A, Holden Bergh I, Holdsworth M, Homayounfar R, Homs C, Hopman WM, Horimoto ARVR, Hormiga CM, Horta BL, Houti L, Howitt C, Htay TT, Htet AS, Htike MMT, Hu Y, Huerta JM, Huhtaniemi IT, Huidumac Petrescu C, Husseini A, Huu CN, Huybrechts I, Hwalla N, Hyska J, Iacoviello L, Ibarluzea JM, Ibrahim MM, Ibrahim Wong N, Ikeda N, Ikram MA, Iotova V, Irazola VE, Ishida T, Islam M, Islam SMS, Iwasaki M, Jackson RT, Jacobs JM, Jaddou HY, Jafar T, James K, Jamil KM, Jamrozik K, Janszky I, Janus E, Jarani J, Jarvelin MR, Jasienska G, Jelakovic A, Jelakovic B, Jennings G, Jha AK, Jiang CQ, Jimenez RO, Jöckel KH, Joffres M, Johansson M, Jokelainen JJ, Jonas JB, Jørgensen T, Joshi P, Joukar F, Jovic DP, Józwiak JJ, Juolevi A, Jurak G, Jurca Simina I, Juresa V, Kaaks R, Kaducu FO, Kafatos A, Kajantie EO, Kalmatayeva Z, Kalter-Leibovici O, Kameli Y, Kanala KR, Kannan S, Kapantais E, Karki KB, Katibeh M, Katz J, Katzmarzyk PT, Kauhanen J, Kaur P, Kavousi M, Kazakbaeva GM, Keil U, Keinan Boker L, Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi S, Kelishadi R, Kelleher C, Kemper HCG, Kengne AP, Keramati M, Kerimkulova A, Kersting M, Key T, Khader YS, Khalili D, Khang YH, Khaw KT, Kheiri B, Kheradmand M, Khosravi A, Khouw IMSL, Kiechl-Kohlendorfer U, Kiechl S, Killewo J, Kim DW, Kim HC, Kim J, Kindblom JM, Klakk H, Klimek M, Klimont J, Klumbiene J, Knoflach M, Koirala B, Kolle E, Kolsteren P, König J, Korpelainen R, Korrovits P, Korzycka M, Kos J, Koskinen S, Kouda K, Kovacs VA, Kowlessur S, Koziel S, Kratzer W, Kriemler S, Kristensen PL, Krokstad S, Kromhout D, Krtalic B, Kruger HS, Kubinova R, Kuciene R, Kujala UM, Kujundzic E, Kulaga Z, Kumar RK, Kunešová M, Kurjata P, Kusuma YS, Kuulasmaa K, Kyobutungi C, La QN, Laamiri FZ, Laatikainen T, Lachat C, Laid Y, Lam TH, Lambrinou CP, Landais E, Lanska V, Lappas G, Larijani B, Latt TS, Lauria L, Laxmaiah A, Lazo-Porras M, Le Nguyen Bao K, Le Port A, Le TD, Lee J, Lee J, Lee PH, Lehmann N, Lehtimäki T, Lemogoum D, Levitt NS, Li Y, Liivak M, Lilly CL, Lim WY, Lima-Costa MF, Lin HH, Lin X, Lin YT, Lind L, Linneberg A, Lissner L, Litwin M, Liu J, Liu L, Lo WC, Loit HM, Long KQ, Lopes L, Lopes O, Lopez-Garcia E, Lopez T, Lotufo PA, Lozano JE, Lukrafka JL, Luksiene D, Lundqvist A, Lundqvist R, Lunet N, Lunogelo C, Lustigová M, Luszczki E, Ma G, Ma J, Ma X, Machado-Coelho GLL, Machado-Rodrigues AM, Machi S, Macieira LM, Madar AA, Maggi S, Magliano DJ, Magnacca S, Magriplis E, Mahasampath G, Maire B, Majer M, Makdisse M, Mäki P, Malekzadeh F, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra R, Mallikharjuna Rao K, Malyutina SK, Maniego LV, Manios Y, Mann JI, Mansour-Ghanaei F, Manzato E, Margozzini P, Markaki A, Markey O, Markidou Ioannidou E, Marques-Vidal P, Marques LP, Marrugat J, Martin-Prevel Y, Martin R, Martorell R, Martos E, Marventano S, Mascarenhas LP, Masoodi SR, Mathiesen EB, Mathur P, Matijasevich A, Matsha TE, Mavrogianni C, Mazur A, Mbanya JCN, McFarlane SR, McGarvey ST, McKee M, McLachlan S, McLean RM, McLean SB, McNulty BA, Mediene-Benchekor S, Medzioniene J, Mehdipour P, Mehlig K, Mehrparvar AH, Meirhaeghe A, Meisfjord J, Meisinger C, Menezes AMB, Menon GR, Mensink GBM, Menzano MT, Mereke A, Meshram II, Metspalu A, Mi J, Michaelsen KF, Michels N, Mikkel K, Milkowska K, Miller JC, Minderico CS, Mini GK, Miquel JF, Miranda JJ, Mirjalili MR, Mirkopoulou D, Mirrakhimov E, Mišigoj-Durakovic M, Mistretta A, Mocanu V, Modesti PA, Moghaddam SS, Mohajer B, Mohamed MK, Mohamed SF, Mohammad K, Mohammadi Z, Mohammadifard N, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mohan V, Mohanna S, Mohd Yusoff MF, Mohebbi I, Mohebi F, Moitry M, Molbo D, Møllehave LT, Møller NC, Molnár D, Momenan A, Mondo CK, Monroy-Valle M, Monterrubio-Flores E, Monyeki KDK, Moon JS, Moosazadeh M, Moreira LB, Morejon A, Moreno LA, Morgan K, Morin SN, Mortensen EL, Moschonis G, Mossakowska M, Mostafa A, Mota-Pinto A, Mota J, Motlagh ME, Motta J, Moura-dos-Santos MA, Mridha MK, Msyamboza KP, Mu TT, Muc M, Mugoša B, Muiesan ML, Mukhtorova P, Müller-Nurasyid M, Murphy N, Mursu J, Murtagh EM, Musa KI, Music Milanovic S, Musil V, Mustafa N, Nabipour I, Naderimagham S, Nagel G, Naidu BM, Najafi F, Nakamura H, Námešná J, Nang EEK, Nangia VB, Nankap M, Narake S, Nardone P, Nauck M, Neal WA, Nejatizadeh A, Nelis K, Nelis L, Nenko I, Neovius M, Nervi F, Nguyen CT, Nguyen D, Nguyen QN, Nieto-Martínez RE, Nikitin YP, Ning G, Ninomiya T, Nishtar S, Noale M, Noboa OA, Nogueira H, Norat T, Nordendahl M, Nordestgaard BG, Noto D, Nowak-Szczepanska N, Nsour MA, Nuhoglu I, Nurk E, O'Neill TW, O'Reilly D, Obreja G, Ochimana C, Ochoa-Avilés AM, Oda E, Oh K, Ohara K, Ohlsson C, Ohtsuka R, Olafsson Ö, Olinto MTA, Oliveira IO, Omar MA, Onat A, Ong SK, Ono LM, Ordunez P, Ornelas R, Ortiz AP, Ortiz PJ, Osler M, Osmond C, Ostojic SM, Ostovar A, Otero JA, Overvad K, Owusu-Dabo E, Paccaud FM, Padez C, Pagkalos I, Pahomova E, Paiva KMD, Pajak A, Palli D, Palloni A, Palmieri L, Pan WH, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Panza F, Papandreou D, Park SW, Park S, Parnell WR, Parsaeian M, Pascanu IM, Pasquet P, Patel ND, Pednekar MS, Peer N, Peixoto SV, Peltonen M, Pereira AC, Peres MA, Pérez-Farinós N, Pérez CM, Peterkova V, Peters A, Petersmann A, Petkeviciene J, Petrauskiene A, Pettenuzzo E, Peykari N, Pham ST, Pichardo RN, Pierannunzio D, Pigeot I, Pikhart H, Pilav A, Pilotto L, Pistelli F, Pitakaka F, Piwonska A, Pizarro AN, Plans-Rubió P, Poh BK, Pohlabeln H, Pop RM, Popovic SR, Porta M, Posch G, Poudyal A, Poulimeneas D, Pouraram H, Pourfarzi F, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Pradeepa R, Price AJ, Price JF, Providencia R, Puder JJ, Pudule I, Puhakka SE, Puiu M, Punab M, Qasrawi RF, Qorbani M, Quoc Bao T, Radic I, Radisauskas R, Rahimikazerooni S, Rahman M, Rahman M, Raitakari O, Raj M, Rakhimova E, Rakhmatulloev S, Rakovac I, Ramachandra Rao S, Ramachandran A, Ramke J, Ramos E, Ramos R, Rampal L, Rampal S, Rarra V, Rascon-Pacheco RA, Rasmussen M, Rech CR, Redon J, Reganit PFM, Regecová V, Revilla L, Rezaianzadeh A, Ribas-Barba L, Ribeiro R, Riboli E, Richter A, Rigo F, Rinaldo N, Rinke de Wit TF, Rito A, Ritti-Dias RM, Rivera JA, Robitaille C, Roccaldo R, Rodrigues D, Rodríguez-Artalejo F, Rodriguez-Perez MDC, Rodríguez-Villamizar LA, Roggenbuck U, Rojas-Martinez R, Rojroongwasinkul N, Romaguera D, Romeo EL, Rosario RV, Rosengren A, Rouse I, Roy JGR, Rubinstein A, Rühli FJ, Ruidavets JB, Ruiz-Betancourt BS, Ruiz Moreno E, Rusakova IA, Russell Jonsson K, Russo P, Rust P, Rutkowski M, Sabanayagam C, Sacchini E, Sachdev HS, Sadjadi A, Safarpour AR, Safi S, Safiri S, Saidi O, Saki N, Salanave B, Salazar Martinez E, Salmerón D, Salomaa V, Salonen JT, Salvetti M, Samoutian M, Sánchez-Abanto J, Sandjaja, Sans S, Santa Marina L, Santos DA, Santos IS, Santos LC, Santos MP, Santos O, Santos R, Santos Sanz S, Saramies JL, Sardinha LB, Sarrafzadegan N, Sathish T, Saum KU, Savva S, Savy M, Sawada N, Sbaraini M, Scazufca M, Schaan BD, Schaffrath Rosario A, Schargrodsky H, Schienkiewitz A, Schindler K, Schipf S, Schmidt CO, Schmidt IM, Schnohr P, Schöttker B, Schramm S, Schramm S, Schröder H, Schultsz C, Schutte AE, Sebert S, Sein AA, Selamat R, Sember V, Sen A, Senbanjo IO, Sepanlou SG, Sequera V, Serra-Majem L, Servais J, Ševcíková L, Shalnova SA, Shamah-Levy T, Shamshirgaran M, Shanthirani CS, Sharafkhah M, Sharma SK, Shaw JE, Shayanrad A, Shayesteh AA, Shengelia L, Shi Z, Shibuya K, Shimizu-Furusawa H, Shin DW, Shin Y, Shirani M, Shiri R, Shrestha N, Si-Ramlee K, Siani A, Siantar R, Sibai AM, Silva AM, Silva DAS, Simon M, Simons J, Simons LA, Sjöberg A, Sjöström M, Skodje G, Slowikowska-Hilczer J, Slusarczyk P, Smeeth L, So HK, Soares FC, Sobek G, Sobngwi E, Sodemann M, Söderberg S, Soekatri MYE, Soemantri A, Sofat R, Solfrizzi V, Somi MH, Sonestedt E, Song Y, Sørensen TIA, Sørgjerd EP, Soric M, Sossa Jérome C, Soto-Rojas VE, Soumaré A, Sovic S, Sparboe-Nilsen B, Sparrenberger K, Spinelli A, Spiroski I, Staessen JA, Stamm H, Starc G, Stathopoulou MG, Staub K, Stavreski B, Steene-Johannessen J, Stehle P, Stein AD, Stergiou GS, Stessman J, Stevanovic R, Stieber J, Stöckl D, Stocks T, Stokwiszewski J, Stoyanova E, Stratton G, Stronks K, Strufaldi MW, Sturua L, Suárez-Medina R, Suka M, Sun CA, Sundström J, Sung YT, Sunyer J, Suriyawongpaisal P, Swinburn BA, Sy RG, Syddall HE, Sylva RC, Szklo M, Szponar L, Tai ES, Tammesoo ML, Tamosiunas A, Tan EJ, Tang X, Tanser F, Tao Y, Tarawneh MR, Tarp J, Tarqui-Mamani CB, Taxová Braunerová R, Taylor A, Taylor J, Tchibindat F, Tebar WR, Tell GS, Tello T, Thankappan KR, Theobald H, Theodoridis X, Thijs L, Thomas N, Thuesen BH, Tichá L, Timmermans EJ, Tjonneland A, Tolonen HK, Tolstrup JS, Topbas M, Topór-Madry R, Torheim LE, Tormo MJ, Tornaritis MJ, Torrent M, Torres-Collado L, Toselli S, Traissac P, Tran TTH, Trichopoulos D, Trichopoulou A, Trinh OTH, Trivedi A, Tshepo L, Tsigga M, Tsugane S, Tuliakova AM, Tulloch-Reid MK, Tullu F, Tuomainen TP, Tuomilehto J, Turley ML, Tynelius P, Tzotzas T, Tzourio C, Ueda P, Ugel E, Ukoli FAM, Ulmer H, Unal B, Usupova Z, Uusitalo HMT, Uysal N, Vaitkeviciute J, Valdivia G, Vale S, Valvi D, van Dam RM, Van der Heyden J, van der Schouw YT, Van Herck K, Van Minh H, van Valkengoed IGM, Vanderschueren D, Vanuzzo D, Varbo A, Varela-Moreiras G, Varona-Pérez P, Vasan SK, Vega T, Veidebaum T, Velasquez-Melendez G, Velika B, Veronesi G, Verschuren WMM, Victora CG, Viegi G, Viet L, Villalpando S, Vineis P, Vioque J, Virtanen JK, Visser M, Visvikis-Siest S, Viswanathan B, Vladulescu M, Vlasoff T, Vocanec D, Völzke H, Voutilainen A, Voutilainen S, Vrijheid M, Vrijkotte TGM, Wade AN, Wagner A, Waldhör T, Walton J, Wambiya EOA, Wan Bebakar WM, Wan Mohamud WN, Wanderley Júnior RDS, Wang MD, Wang N, Wang Q, Wang X, Wang YX, Wang YW, Wannamethee SG, Wareham N, Weber A, Wedderkopp N, Weerasekera D, Weghuber D, Wei W, Weres A, Werner B, Whincup PH, Widhalm K, Widyahening IS, Wiecek A, Wilks RJ, Willeit J, Willeit P, Williams J, Wilsgaard T, Wojtyniak B, Wong-McClure RA, Wong A, Wong JE, Wong TY, Woo J, Woodward M, Wu FC, Wu J, Wu LJ, Wu S, Xu H, Xu L, Yaacob NA, Yamborisut U, Yan W, Yang L, Yang X, Yang Y, Yardim N, Yaseri M, Yasuharu T, Ye X, Yiallouros PK, Yoosefi M, Yoshihara A, You QS, You SL, Younger-Coleman NO, Yusof SM, Yusoff AF, Zaccagni L, Zafiropulos V, Zainuddin AA, Zakavi SR, Zamani F, Zambon S, Zampelas A, Zamrazilová H, Zapata ME, Zargar AH, Zaw KK, Zdrojewski T, Zeljkovic Vrkic T, Zeng Y, Zhang L, Zhang ZY, Zhao D, Zhao MH, Zhao W, Zhen S, Zheng W, Zheng Y, Zholdin B, Zhou M, Zhu D, Zocalo Y, Zuñiga Cisneros J, Zuziak M, Ezzati M. Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants. Lancet 2020; 396:1511-1524. [PMID: 33160572 PMCID: PMC7658740 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)31859-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 171] [Impact Index Per Article: 42.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2020] [Revised: 08/03/2020] [Accepted: 08/19/2020] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. METHODS For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5-19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. FINDINGS We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9-10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes-gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both-occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. INTERPRETATION The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks. FUNDING Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme, EU.
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Taddei C, Zhou B, Bixby H, Carrillo-Larco RM, Danaei G, Jackson RT, Farzadfar F, Sophiea MK, Di Cesare M, Iurilli MLC, Martinez AR, Asghari G, Dhana K, Gulayin P, Kakarmath S, Santero M, Voortman T, Riley LM, Cowan MJ, Savin S, Bennett JE, Stevens GA, Paciorek CJ, Aekplakorn W, Cifkova R, Giampaoli S, Kengne AP, Khang YH, Kuulasmaa K, Laxmaiah A, Margozzini P, Mathur P, Nordestgaard BG, Zhao D, Aadahl M, Abarca-Gómez L, Rahim HA, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Acosta-Cazares B, Adams RJ, Agdeppa IA, Aghazadeh-Attari J, Aguilar-Salinas CA, Agyemang C, Ahluwalia TS, Ahmad NA, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi N, Ahmed SH, Ahrens W, Ajlouni K, Alarouj M, AlBuhairan F, AlDhukair S, Ali MM, Alkandari A, Alkerwi A, Aly E, Amarapurkar DN, Amouyel P, Andersen LB, Anderssen SA, Anjana RM, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Aounallah-Skhiri H, Araújo J, Ariansen I, Aris T, Arku RE, Arlappa N, Aryal KK, Aspelund T, Assunção MCF, Auvinen J, Avdicová M, Azevedo A, Azizi F, Azmin M, Balakrishna N, Bamoshmoosh M, Banach M, Bandosz P, Banegas JR, 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Dauchet L, Davletov K, De Backer G, De Bacquer D, de Gaetano G, De Henauw S, de Oliveira PD, De Ridder D, De Smedt D, Deepa M, Deev AD, Dehghan A, Delisle H, Dennison E, Deschamps V, Dhimal M, Di Castelnuovo AF, Dika Z, Djalalinia S, Dobson AJ, Donfrancesco C, Donoso SP, Döring A, Dorobantu M, Dragano N, Drygas W, Du Y, Duante CA, Duda RB, Dzerve V, Dziankowska-Zaborszczyk E, Eddie R, Eftekhar E, Eggertsen R, Eghtesad S, Eiben G, Ekelund U, El Ati J, Eldemire-Shearer D, Eliasen M, Elosua R, Erasmus RT, Erbel R, Erem C, Eriksen L, Eriksson JG, Escobedo-de la Peña J, Eslami S, Esmaeili A, Evans A, Faeh D, Fall CH, Faramarzi E, Farjam M, Fattahi MR, Felix-Redondo FJ, Ferguson TS, Fernández-Bergés D, Ferrante D, Ferrari M, Ferreccio C, Ferrieres J, Föger B, Foo LH, Forslund AS, Forsner M, Fouad HM, Francis DK, do Carmo Franco M, Franco OH, Frontera G, Fujita Y, Fumihiko M, Furusawa T, Gaciong Z, Galvano F, Gao J, Garcia-de-la-Hera M, Garnett SP, Gaspoz JM, Gasull M, Gazzinelli A, Geleijnse JM, Ghanbari A, Ghasemi E, Gheorghe-Fronea OF, Ghimire A, Gianfagna F, Gill TK, Giovannelli J, Gironella G, Giwercman A, Goltzman D, Gonçalves H, Gonzalez-Chica DA, Gonzalez-Gross M, González-Rivas JP, González-Villalpando C, González-Villalpando ME, Gonzalez AR, Gottrand F, Graff-Iversen S, Grafnetter D, Gregor RD, Grodzicki T, Grøntved A, Grosso G, Gruden G, Gu D, Guallar-Castillón P, Guan OP, Gudmundsson EF, Gudnason V, Guerrero R, Guessous I, Gunnlaugsdottir J, Gupta R, Gutierrez L, Gutzwiller F, Ha S, Hadaegh F, Haghshenas R, Hakimi H, Hambleton IR, Hamzeh B, Hantunen S, Kumar RH, Hashemi-Shahri SM, Hata J, Haugsgjerd T, Hayes AJ, He J, He Y, Hendriks ME, Henriques A, Herrala S, Heshmat R, Hill AG, Ho SY, Ho SC, Hobbs M, Hofman A, Homayounfar R, Hopman WM, Horimoto ARVR, Hormiga CM, Horta BL, Houti L, Howitt C, Htay TT, Htet AS, Htike MMT, Huerta JM, Huhtaniemi IT, Huisman M, Hunsberger ML, Husseini AS, Huybrechts I, Hwalla N, Iacoviello L, Iannone AG, Ibrahim MM, Wong NI, Iglesia I, Ikeda N, Ikram MA, Iotova V, Irazola VE, Ishida T, Islam M, al-Safi Ismail A, Iwasaki M, Jacobs JM, Jaddou HY, Jafar T, James K, Jamrozik K, Janszky I, Janus E, Jarvelin MR, Jasienska G, Jelakovic A, Jelakovic B, Jennings G, Jensen GB, Jeong SL, Jha AK, Jiang CQ, Jimenez RO, Jöckel KH, Joffres M, Jokelainen JJ, Jonas JB, Jørgensen T, Joshi P, Joukar F, Józwiak J, Juolevi A, Kafatos A, Kajantie EO, Kalter-Leibovici O, Kamaruddin NA, Kamstrup PR, Karki KB, Katz J, Kauhanen J, Kaur P, Kavousi M, Kazakbaeva G, Keil U, Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi S, Kelishadi R, Keramati M, Kerimkulova A, Kersting M, Khader YS, Khalili D, Khateeb M, Kheradmand M, Khosravi A, Kiechl-Kohlendorfer U, Kiechl S, Killewo J, Kim HC, Kim J, Kim YY, Klumbiene J, Knoflach M, Ko S, Kohler HP, Kohler IV, Kolle E, Kolsteren P, König J, Korpelainen R, Korrovits P, Kos J, Koskinen S, Kouda K, Kowlessur S, Kratzer W, Kriemler S, Kristensen PL, Krokstad S, Kromhout D, Kujala UM, Kurjata P, Kyobutungi C, Laamiri FZ, Laatikainen T, Lachat C, Laid Y, Lam TH, Lambrinou CP, Lanska V, Lappas G, Larijani B, Latt TS, Laugsand LE, Lazo-Porras M, Lee J, Lee J, Lehmann N, Lehtimäki T, Levitt NS, Li Y, Lilly CL, Lim WY, Lima-Costa MF, Lin HH, Lin X, Lin YT, Lind L, Linneberg A, Lissner L, Liu J, Loit HM, Lopez-Garcia E, Lopez T, Lotufo PA, Lozano JE, Luksiene D, Lundqvist A, Lundqvist R, Lunet N, Ma G, Machado-Coelho GLL, Machado-Rodrigues AM, Machi S, Madar AA, Maggi S, Magliano DJ, Magriplis E, Mahasampath G, Maire B, Makdisse M, Malekzadeh F, Malekzadeh R, Rao KM, Manios Y, Mann JI, Mansour-Ghanaei F, Manzato E, Marques-Vidal P, Martorell R, Mascarenhas LP, Mathiesen EB, Matsha TE, Mavrogianni C, McFarlane SR, McGarvey ST, McLachlan S, McLean RM, McLean SB, McNulty BA, Mediene-Benchekor S, Mehdipour P, Mehlig K, Mehrparvar AH, Meirhaeghe A, Meisinger C, Menezes AMB, Menon GR, Merat S, Mereke A, Meshram II, Metcalf P, Meyer HE, Mi J, Michels N, Miller JC, Minderico CS, Mini GK, Miquel JF, Miranda JJ, Mirjalili MR, Mirrakhimov E, Modesti PA, Moghaddam SS, Mohajer B, Mohamed MK, Mohammad K, Mohammadi Z, Mohammadifard N, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mohan V, Mohanna S, Yusoff MFM, Mohebbi I, Mohebi F, Moitry M, Møllehave LT, Møller NC, Molnár D, Momenan A, Mondo CK, Monterrubio-Flores E, Moosazadeh M, Morejon A, Moreno LA, Morgan K, Morin SN, Moschonis G, Mossakowska M, Mostafa A, Mota J, Motlagh ME, Motta J, Msyamboza KP, Muiesan ML, Müller-Nurasyid M, Mursu J, Mustafa N, Nabipour I, Naderimagham S, Nagel G, Naidu BM, Najafi F, Nakamura H, Námešná J, Nang EEK, Nangia VB, Nauck M, Neal WA, Nejatizadeh A, Nenko I, Nervi F, Nguyen ND, Nguyen QN, Nieto-Martínez RE, Nihal T, Niiranen TJ, Ning G, Ninomiya T, Noale M, Noboa OA, Noto D, Nsour MA, Nuhoğlu I, O’Neill TW, O’Reilly D, Ochoa-Avilés AM, Oh K, Ohtsuka R, Olafsson Ö, Olié V, Oliveira IO, Omar MA, Onat A, Ong SK, Ordunez P, Ornelas R, Ortiz PJ, Osmond C, Ostojic SM, Ostovar A, Otero JA, Owusu-Dabo E, Paccaud FM, Pahomova E, Pajak A, Palmieri L, Pan WH, Panda-Jonas S, Panza F, Parnell WR, Patel ND, Peer N, Peixoto SV, Peltonen M, Pereira AC, Peters A, Petersmann A, Petkeviciene J, Peykari N, Pham ST, Pichardo RN, Pigeot I, Pilav A, Pilotto L, Piwonska A, Pizarro AN, Plans-Rubió P, Plata S, Pohlabeln H, Porta M, Portegies MLP, Poudyal A, Pourfarzi F, Poustchi H, Pradeepa R, Price JF, Providencia R, Puder JJ, Puhakka SE, Punab M, Qorbani M, Bao TQ, Radisauskas R, Rahimikazerooni S, Raitakari O, Rao SR, Ramachandran A, Ramos E, Ramos R, Rampal L, Rampal S, Redon J, Reganit PFM, Revilla L, Rezaianzadeh A, Ribeiro R, Richter A, Rigo F, Rinke de Wit TF, Rodríguez-Artalejo F, del Cristo Rodriguez-Perez M, Rodríguez-Villamizar LA, Roggenbuck U, Rojas-Martinez R, Romaguera D, Romeo EL, Rosengren A, Roy JGR, Rubinstein A, Ruidavets JB, Ruiz-Betancourt BS, Russo P, Rust P, Rutkowski M, Sabanayagam C, Sachdev HS, Sadjadi A, Safarpour AR, Safiri S, Saidi O, Saki N, Salanave B, Salmerón D, Salomaa V, Salonen JT, Salvetti M, Sánchez-Abanto J, Sans S, Santaliestra-Pasías AM, Santos DA, Santos MP, Santos R, Saramies JL, Sardinha LB, Sarrafzadegan N, Saum KU, Savva SC, Sawada N, Sbaraini M, Scazufca M, Schaan BD, Schargrodsky H, Scheidt-Nave C, Schienkiewitz A, Schipf S, Schmidt CO, Schöttker B, Schramm S, Sebert S, Sein AA, Sen A, Sepanlou SG, Servais J, Shakeri R, Shalnova SA, Shamah-Levy T, Sharafkhah M, Sharma SK, Shaw JE, Shayanrad A, Shi Z, Shibuya K, Shimizu-Furusawa H, Shin DW, Shin Y, Shirani M, Shiri R, Shrestha N, Si-Ramlee K, Siani A, Siantar R, Sibai AM, Silva DAS, Simon M, Simons J, Simons LA, Sjöström M, Skaaby T, Slowikowska-Hilczer J, Slusarczyk P, Smeeth L, Snijder MB, Söderberg S, Soemantri A, Sofat R, Solfrizzi V, Somi MH, Sonestedt E, Sørensen TIA, Jérome CS, Soumaré A, Sozmen K, Sparrenberger K, Staessen JA, Stathopoulou MG, Stavreski B, Steene-Johannessen J, Stehle P, Stein AD, Stessman J, Stevanović R, Stieber J, Stöckl D, Stokwiszewski J, Stronks K, Strufaldi MW, Suárez-Medina R, Sun CA, Sundström J, Suriyawongpaisal P, Sy RG, Sylva RC, Szklo M, Tai ES, Tamosiunas A, Tan EJ, Tarawneh MR, Tarqui-Mamani CB, Taylor A, Taylor J, Tell GS, Tello T, Thankappan KR, Thijs L, Thuesen BH, Toft U, Tolonen HK, Tolstrup JS, Topbas M, Topór-Madry R, Tormo MJ, Tornaritis MJ, Torrent M, Torres-Collado L, Traissac P, Trinh OTH, Truthmann J, Tsugane S, Tulloch-Reid MK, Tuomainen TP, Tuomilehto J, Tybjaerg-Hansen A, Tzourio C, Ueda P, Ugel E, Ulmer H, Unal B, Uusitalo HMT, Valdivia G, Valvi D, van Dam RM, van der Schouw YT, Van Herck K, Van Minh H, van Rossem L, Van Schoor NM, van Valkengoed IGM, Vanderschueren D, Vanuzzo D, Varbo A, Varona-Pérez P, Vasan SK, Vatten L, Vega T, Veidebaum T, Velasquez-Melendez G, Venero-Fernández SJ, Veronesi G, Verschuren WMM, Victora CG, Vidiawati D, Viet L, Villalpando S, Vioque J, Virtanen JK, Visvikis-Siest S, Viswanathan B, Vlasoff T, Vollenweider P, Voutilainen A, Wade AN, Wagner A, Walton J, Bebakar WMW, Mohamud WNW, Wang MD, Wang N, Wang Q, Wang YX, Wang YW, Wannamethee SG, Wedderkopp N, Wei W, Whincup PH, Widhalm K, Widyahening IS, Wiecek A, Wijga AH, Wilks RJ, Willeit J, Willeit P, Wilsgaard T, Wojtyniak B, Wong-McClure RA, Wong A, Wong TY, Woo J, Woodward M, Wu FC, Wu S, Xu H, Xu L, Yan W, Yang X, Yasuharu T, Ye X, Yeow TP, Yiallouros PK, Yoosefi M, Yoshihara A, You SL, Younger-Coleman NO, Yusoff AF, Zainuddin AA, Zakavi SR, Zali MR, Zamani F, Zambon S, Zampelas A, Zaw KK, Zdrojewski T, Vrkic TZ, Zhang ZY, Zhao W, Zhen S, Zheng Y, Zholdin B, Zhussupov B, Zoghlami N, Cisneros JZ, Gregg EW, Ezzati M. Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol. Nature 2020; 582:73-77. [PMID: 32494083 PMCID: PMC7332422 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2338-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 111] [Impact Index Per Article: 27.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2019] [Accepted: 04/02/2020] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular risk-changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.
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Taddei C, Jackson R, Zhou B, Bixby H, Danaei G, Di Cesare M, Kuulasmaa K, Hajifathalian K, Bentham J, Bennett JE, Aekplakorn W, Cifkova R, Dallongeville J, DeBacquer D, Giampaoli S, Gudnason V, Khang YH, Laatikainen T, Mann J, Marques-Vidal P, Mensah GA, Müller-Nurasyid M, Ninomiya T, Petkeviciene J, Rodríguez-Artalejo F, Servais J, Söderberg S, Stavreski B, Wilsgaard T, Zdrojewski T, Zhao D, Stevens GA, Savin S, Cowan MJ, Riley LM, Ezzati M, Adams RJ, Aekplakorn W, Ahrens W, Amouyel P, Amuzu A, Anderssen SA, Ariansen I, Arveiler D, Aspelund T, Auvinen J, Avdicová M, Banach M, Bandosz P, Banegas JR, Barbagallo CM, Bata I, Baur LA, Beaglehole R, Bennett JE, Bernotiene G, Bi Y, Bienek A, Björkelund C, Bo S, Boehm BO, Bonaccio M, Bongard V, Borchini R, Borghs H, Breckenkamp J, Brenner H, Bruno G, Busch MA, Cabrera de León A, Capuano V, Casanueva FF, Casas JP, Caserta CA, Censi L, Chen F, Chen S, Chirlaque MD, Cho B, Cho Y, Chudek J, Cifkova R, Claessens F, Clarke J, Clays E, Cooper C, Costanzo S, Cottel D, Cowell C, Crujeiras AB, Cui L, D'Arrigo G, Dallongeville J, Dauchet L, De Backer G, De Bacquer D, de Gaetano G, De Henauw S, De Smedt D, Dennison E, Deschamps V, DiCastelnuovo A, Dobson AJ, Donfrancesco C, Döring A, Drygas W, Du Y, Dziankowska-Zaborszczyk E, Eggertsen R, Ekelund U, Elosua R, Eriksson JG, Evans A, Faeh D, Felix-Redondo FJ, Fernández-Bergés D, Ferrari M, Ferrieres J, Finn JD, Forslund AS, Forsner M, Frontera G, Fujita Y, Gaciong Z, Galvano F, Gao J, Garcia-de-la-Hera M, Garnett SP, Gaspoz JM, Gasull M, Gates L, Giampaoli S, Gianfagna F, Gill TK, Giovannelli J, Goltzman D, GonzalezGross M, Gottrand F, Graff-Iversen S, Grafnetter D, Gregor RD, Grodzicki T, Grosso G, Gruden G, Gu D, Guallar-Castillón P, Gudmundsson EF, Gudnason V, Guessous I, Gunnlaugsdottir J, Gutzwiller F, Hardy R, Hata J, Haugsgjerd T, Hayes AJ, He J, He Y, Herrala S, TapaniHihtaniemi I, Hobbs M, Hopman WM, MaríaHuerta J, Huybrechts I, Iacoviello L, Iannone AG, Ikeda N, Iwasaki M, Jackson R, Jamrozik K, Janszky I, Jarvelin MR, Jasienska G, Jennings G, Jeong SL, QiangJiang C, Joffres M, Jokelainen JJ, Jonas JB, Jóźwiak J, Kajantie EO, Kauhanen J, Keil U, Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi S, Kersting M, Khang YH, Kiechl-Kohlendorfer U, Kiechl S, Kim J, Kim YY, Klumbiene J, Knoflach M, Ko S, Kolle E, Korpelainen R, Koskinen S, Kouda K, Kratzer W, Kriemler S, Krokstad S, Kujala UM, Kurjata P, Kuulasmaa K, Laatikainen T, HingLam T, Lanska V, Lappas G, Laugsand LE, Lee J, Lehtimäki T, Li Y, Lilly CL, Lin X, Lind L, Lissner L, Liu J, Lopez-Garcia E, Lorbeer R, EugenioLozano J, Luksiene D, Lundqvist A, Lundqvist R, Lytsy P, Ma G, Machi S, Maggi S, Magliano DJ, Mann J, Manzato E, Marques-Vidal P, Mathiesen EB, McLachlan S, McLean RM, McLean SB, Meirhaeghe A, Meisinger C, Metcalf P, Mi J, Miller JC, Moreno LA, Morin S, Mossakowska M, Muiesan ML, Müller-Nurasyid M, Mursu J, Nakamura H, Námešná J, Nauck M, MariaNavarrete-Muñoz E, Neal WA, Nenko I, Niiranen TJ, Ning G, Ninomiya T, Noale M, Norie S, Noto D, O'Neill T, O'Reilly D, Oh K, Olafsson Ö, MichelPaccaud F, Pajak A, Palmieri L, Panza F, Parnell WR, Peltonen M, Peters A, Petersmann A, Petkeviciene J, Pigeot I, Pilotto L, Piwonska A, Plans-Rubió P, Porta M, Price JF, Puder JJ, Puhakka SE, Radisauskas R, Raitakari O, Ramos R, Redon J, Rigo F, Rodríguez-Artalejo F, Rodriguez-Perez M, Romaguera D, Ronkainen K, Rosengren A, Roy JGR, Ruidavets JB, Rutkowski M, Salanave B, Salmerón D, Salomaa V, Salonen JT, Salvetti M, Sans S, Saramies JL, Saum KU, Scheidt-Nave C, Schienkiewitz A, Schipf S, Schmidt CO, Schöttker B, Sebert S, Sen A, Servais J, Shaw JE, Shibuya K, WookShin D, Shiri R, Simons J, Simons LA, Sjöström M, Slowikowska-Hilczer J, Slusarczyk P, Söderberg S, Solfrizzi V, Sonestedt E, Soumare A, Staessen JA, Stathopoulou MG, Stavreski B, Steene-Johannessen J, Stehle P, Stieber J, Stöckl D, Stokwiszewski J, Sundström J, Suriyawongpaisal P, Tamosiunas A, JooTan E, Taylor A, Tell G, Thijs L, Tolonen H, Topór-Madry R, JoséTormo M, Torrent M, Tsugane S, Tuomainen TP, Tuomilehto J, Tzourio C, Uusitalo HMT, Van Herck K, Vanderschueren D, Vanuzzo D, Vatten L, Vega T, Veronesi G, Vioque J, Virtanen J, Visvikis-Siest S, Vollenweider P, Voutilainen S, Vrijheid M, Wagner A, Wagner A, Wang MD, Wang Q, XingWang Y, Wannamethee SG, Wei W, Whincup PH, Wiecek A, Willeit J, Willeit P, Wilsgaard T, Wojtyniak B, Wong A, Woodward M, GiwercmanWu A, Wu FC, Wu S, Xu H, Xu L, Yan W, Yang X, Ye X, Yoshihara A, Zambon S, Zdrojewski T, Zhao D, Zhao W. National trends in total cholesterol obscure heterogeneous changes in HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio: a pooled analysis of 458 population-based studies in Asian and Western countries. Int J Epidemiol 2020; 49:173-192. [PMID: 31321439 PMCID: PMC7245049 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyz099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 04/24/2019] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol have opposite associations with coronary heart disease, multi-country reports of lipid trends only use total cholesterol (TC). Our aim was to compare trends in total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio in Asian and Western countries. METHODS We pooled 458 population-based studies with 82.1 million participants in 23 Asian and Western countries. We estimated changes in mean total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio by country, sex and age group. RESULTS Since ∼1980, mean TC increased in Asian countries. In Japan and South Korea, the TC rise was due to rising HDL cholesterol, which increased by up to 0.17 mmol/L per decade in Japanese women; in China, it was due to rising non-HDL cholesterol. TC declined in Western countries, except in Polish men. The decline was largest in Finland and Norway, at ∼0.4 mmol/L per decade. The decline in TC in most Western countries was the net effect of an increase in HDL cholesterol and a decline in non-HDL cholesterol, with the HDL cholesterol increase largest in New Zealand and Switzerland. Mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio declined in Japan, South Korea and most Western countries, by as much as ∼0.7 per decade in Swiss men (equivalent to ∼26% decline in coronary heart disease risk per decade). The ratio increased in China. CONCLUSIONS HDL cholesterol has risen and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio has declined in many Western countries, Japan and South Korea, with only a weak correlation with changes in TC or non-HDL cholesterol.
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Guthold R, Stevens GA, Riley LM, Bull FC. Global trends in insufficient physical activity among adolescents: a pooled analysis of 298 population-based surveys with 1·6 million participants. Lancet Child Adolesc Health 2019; 4:23-35. [PMID: 31761562 PMCID: PMC6919336 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-4642(19)30323-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1209] [Impact Index Per Article: 241.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2019] [Revised: 09/26/2019] [Accepted: 09/27/2019] [Indexed: 01/21/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Physical activity has many health benefits for young people. In 2018, WHO launched More Active People for a Healthier World, a new global action on physical activity, including new targets of a 15% relative reduction of global prevalence of insufficient physical activity by 2030 among adolescents and adults. We describe current prevalence and trends of insufficient physical activity among school-going adolescents aged 11-17 years by country, region, and globally. METHODS We did a pooled analysis of cross-sectional survey data that were collected through random sampling with a sample size of at least 100 individuals, were representative of a national or defined subnational population, and reported prevalence of of insufficient physical activity by sex in adolescents. Prevalence had to be reported for at least three of the years of age within the 10-19-year age range. We estimated the prevalence of insufficient physical activity in school-going adolescents aged 11-17 years (combined and by sex) for individual countries, for four World Bank income groups, nine regions, and globally for the years 2001-16. To derive a standard definition of insufficient physical activity and to adjust for urban-only survey coverage, we used regression models. We estimated time trends using multilevel mixed-effects modelling. FINDINGS We used data from 298 school-based surveys from 146 countries, territories, and areas including 1·6 million students aged 11-17 years. Globally, in 2016, 81·0% (95% uncertainty interval 77·8-87·7) of students aged 11-17 years were insufficiently physically active (77·6% [76·1-80·4] of boys and 84·7% [83·0-88·2] of girls). Although prevalence of insufficient physical activity significantly decreased between 2001 and 2016 for boys (from 80·1% [78·3-81·6] in 2001), there was no significant change for girls (from 85·1% [83·1-88·0] in 2001). There was no clear pattern according to country income group: insufficient activity prevalence in 2016 was 84·9% (82·6-88·2) in low-income countries, 79·3% (77·2-87·5) in lower-middle-income countries, 83·9% (79·5-89·2) in upper-middle-income countries, and 79·4% (74·0-86·2) in high-income countries. The region with the highest prevalence of insufficient activity in 2016 was high-income Asia Pacific for both boys (89·0%, 62·8-92·2) and girls (95·6%, 73·7-97·9). The regions with the lowest prevalence were high-income western countries for boys (72·1%, 71·1-73·6), and south Asia for girls (77·5%, 72·8-89·3). In 2016, 27 countries had a prevalence of insufficient activity of 90% or more for girls, whereas this was the case for two countries for boys. INTERPRETATION The majority of adolescents do not meet current physical activity guidelines. Urgent scaling up of implementation of known effective policies and programmes is needed to increase activity in adolescents. Investment and leadership at all levels to intervene on the multiple causes and inequities that might perpetuate the low participation in physical activity and sex differences, as well as engagement of youth themselves, will be vital to strengthen the opportunities for physical activity in all communities. Such action will improve the health of this and future young generations and support achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. FUNDING WHO.
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Affiliation(s)
- Regina Guthold
- Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health and Ageing Department, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
| | - Gretchen A Stevens
- Independent Researcher, Los Angeles, CA, USA; School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK
| | - Leanne M Riley
- Department of Non-communicable Diseases, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Fiona C Bull
- Health Promotion Department, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland; Department of Sport and Exercise Science, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia
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Riley LM, Paoletti F, Snowdon WD, Cowan MJ. Letter to the Editor. Trop Med Int Health 2019; 24:1475. [PMID: 31622523 DOI: 10.1111/tmi.13314] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Leanne M Riley
- Department of Non-Communicable Diseases, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Wendy D Snowdon
- Division of Pacific Technical Support, WHO Regional Office for the Western Pacific, Suva, Fiji
| | - Melanie J Cowan
- Department of Non-Communicable Diseases, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland
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Guthold R, Stevens GA, Riley LM, Bull FC. Accuracy and inequalities in physical activity research – Authors' reply. The Lancet Global Health 2019; 7:e187. [DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(18)30515-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2018] [Accepted: 11/02/2018] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
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Guthold R, Stevens GA, Riley LM, Bull FC. Worldwide trends in insufficient physical activity from 2001 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 358 population-based surveys with 1·9 million participants. Lancet Glob Health 2018; 6:e1077-e1086. [PMID: 30193830 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(18)30357-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2070] [Impact Index Per Article: 345.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2018] [Revised: 07/09/2018] [Accepted: 07/12/2018] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Insufficient physical activity is a leading risk factor for non-communicable diseases, and has a negative effect on mental health and quality of life. We describe levels of insufficient physical activity across countries, and estimate global and regional trends. METHODS We pooled data from population-based surveys reporting the prevalence of insufficient physical activity, which included physical activity at work, at home, for transport, and during leisure time (ie, not doing at least 150 min of moderate-intensity, or 75 min of vigorous-intensity physical activity per week, or any equivalent combination of the two). We used regression models to adjust survey data to a standard definition and age groups. We estimated time trends using multilevel mixed-effects modelling. FINDINGS We included data from 358 surveys across 168 countries, including 1·9 million participants. Global age-standardised prevalence of insufficient physical activity was 27·5% (95% uncertainty interval 25·0-32·2) in 2016, with a difference between sexes of more than 8 percentage points (23·4%, 21·1-30·7, in men vs 31·7%, 28·6-39·0, in women). Between 2001, and 2016, levels of insufficient activity were stable (28·5%, 23·9-33·9, in 2001; change not significant). The highest levels in 2016, were in women in Latin America and the Caribbean (43·7%, 42·9-46·5), south Asia (43·0%, 29·6-74·9), and high-income Western countries (42·3%, 39·1-45·4), whereas the lowest levels were in men from Oceania (12·3%, 11·2-17·7), east and southeast Asia (17·6%, 15·7-23·9), and sub-Saharan Africa (17·9%, 15·1-20·5). Prevalence in 2016 was more than twice as high in high-income countries (36·8%, 35·0-38·0) as in low-income countries (16·2%, 14·2-17·9), and insufficient activity has increased in high-income countries over time (31·6%, 27·1-37·2, in 2001). INTERPRETATION If current trends continue, the 2025 global physical activity target (a 10% relative reduction in insufficient physical activity) will not be met. Policies to increase population levels of physical activity need to be prioritised and scaled up urgently. FUNDING None.
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Affiliation(s)
- Regina Guthold
- Department for Prevention of Noncommunicable Diseases, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
| | - Gretchen A Stevens
- Department for Information, Evidence and Research, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Leanne M Riley
- Department for Prevention of Noncommunicable Diseases, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Fiona C Bull
- Department for Prevention of Noncommunicable Diseases, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland; Department of Sport and Exercise Science, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia
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Bennett JE, Stevens GA, Mathers CD, Bonita R, Rehm J, Kruk ME, Riley LM, Dain K, Kengne AP, Chalkidou K, Beagley J, Kishore SP, Chen W, Saxena S, Bettcher DW, Grove JT, Beaglehole R, Ezzati M. NCD Countdown 2030: worldwide trends in non-communicable disease mortality and progress towards Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4. Lancet 2018; 392:1072-1088. [PMID: 30264707 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)31992-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 578] [Impact Index Per Article: 96.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/04/2018] [Revised: 07/14/2018] [Accepted: 08/16/2018] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
The third UN High-Level Meeting on Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) on Sept 27, 2018, will review national and global progress towards the prevention and control of NCDs, and provide an opportunity to renew, reinforce, and enhance commitments to reduce their burden. NCD Countdown 2030 is an independent collaboration to inform policies that aim to reduce the worldwide burden of NCDs, and to ensure accountability towards this aim. In 2016, an estimated 40·5 million (71%) of the 56·9 million worldwide deaths were from NCDs. Of these, an estimated 1·7 million (4% of NCD deaths) occurred in people younger than 30 years of age, 15·2 million (38%) in people aged between 30 years and 70 years, and 23·6 million (58%) in people aged 70 years and older. An estimated 32·2 million NCD deaths (80%) were due to cancers, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes, and another 8·3 million (20%) were from other NCDs. Women in 164 (88%) and men in 165 (89%) of 186 countries and territories had a higher probability of dying before 70 years of age from an NCD than from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions combined. Globally, the lowest risks of NCD mortality in 2016 were seen in high-income countries in Asia-Pacific, western Europe, and Australasia, and in Canada. The highest risks of dying from NCDs were observed in low-income and middle-income countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, and, for men, in central Asia and eastern Europe. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4-a one-third reduction, relative to 2015 levels, in the probability of dying between 30 years and 70 years of age from cancers, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes by 2030-will be achieved in 35 countries (19%) for women, and 30 (16%) for men, if these countries maintain or surpass their 2010-2016 rate of decline in NCD mortality. Most of these are high-income countries with already-low NCD mortality, and countries in central and eastern Europe. An additional 50 (27%) countries for women and 35 (19%) for men are projected to achieve such a reduction in the subsequent decade, and thus, with slight acceleration of decline, could meet the 2030 target. 86 (46%) countries for women and 97 (52%) for men need implementation of policies that substantially increase the rates of decline. Mortality from the four NCDs included in SDG target 3.4 has stagnated or increased since 2010 among women in 15 (8%) countries and men in 24 (13%) countries. NCDs and age groups other than those included in the SDG target 3.4 are responsible for a higher risk of death in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Substantial reduction of NCD mortality requires policies that considerably reduce tobacco and alcohol use and blood pressure, and equitable access to efficacious and high-quality preventive and curative care for acute and chronic NCDs.
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Zhou B, Bentham J, Di Cesare M, Bixby H, Danaei G, Hajifathalian K, Taddei C, Carrillo-Larco RM, Djalalinia S, Khatibzadeh S, Lugero C, Peykari N, Zhang WZ, Bennett J, Bilano V, Stevens GA, Cowan MJ, Riley LM, Chen Z, Hambleton IR, Jackson RT, Kengne AP, Khang YH, Laxmaiah A, Liu J, Malekzadeh R, Neuhauser HK, Sorić M, Starc G, Sundström J, Woodward M, Ezzati M, Abarca-Gómez L, Abdeen ZA, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Acosta-Cazares B, Adams RJ, Aekplakorn W, Afsana K, Aguilar-Salinas CA, Agyemang C, Ahmad NA, Ahmadvand A, Ahrens W, Ajlouni K, Akhtaeva N, Al-Raddadi R, Ali MM, Ali O, Alkerwi A, Aly E, Amarapurkar DN, Amouyel P, Amuzu A, Andersen LB, Anderssen SA, Ängquist LH, Anjana RM, Ansong D, Aounallah-Skhiri H, Araújo J, Ariansen I, Aris T, Arlappa N, Arveiler D, Aryal KK, Aspelund T, Assah FK, Assunção MCF, Avdicová M, Azevedo A, Azizi F, Babu BV, Bahijri S, Balakrishna N, Bamoshmoosh M, Banach M, Bandosz P, Banegas JR, Barbagallo CM, Barceló A, Barkat A, Barros AJD, Barros MV, Bata I, Batieha AM, Batyrbek A, Baur LA, Beaglehole R, Romdhane HB, Benet M, Benson LS, Bernabe-Ortiz A, Bernotiene G, Bettiol H, Bhagyalaxmi A, Bharadwaj S, Bhargava SK, Bi Y, Bikbov M, Bista B, Bjerregaard P, Bjertness E, Bjertness MB, Björkelund C, Blokstra A, Bo S, Bobak M, Boeing H, Boggia JG, Boissonnet CP, Bongard V, Borchini R, Bovet P, Braeckman L, Brajkovich I, Branca F, Breckenkamp J, Brenner H, Brewster LM, Bruno G, Bueno-de-Mesquita HB, Bugge A, Burns C, Bursztyn M, de León AC, Cacciottolo J, Cai H, Cameron C, Can G, Cândido APC, Capuano V, Cardoso VC, Carlsson AC, Carvalho MJ, Casanueva FF, Casas JP, Caserta CA, Chamukuttan S, Chan AW, Chan Q, Chaturvedi HK, Chaturvedi N, Chen CJ, Chen F, Chen H, Chen S, Chen Z, Cheng CY, Dekkaki IC, Chetrit A, Chiolero A, Chiou ST, Chirita-Emandi A, Chirlaque MD, Cho B, Cho Y, Christofaro DG, Chudek J, Cifkova R, Cinteza E, Claessens F, Clays E, Concin H, Cooper C, Cooper R, Coppinger TC, Costanzo S, Cottel D, Cowell C, Craig CL, Crujeiras AB, Cruz JJ, D'Arrigo G, d'Orsi E, Dallongeville J, Damasceno A, Danaei G, Dankner R, Dantoft TM, Dauchet L, Davletov K, De Backer G, De Bacquer D, de Gaetano G, De Henauw S, de Oliveira PD, De Smedt D, Deepa M, Dehghan A, Delisle H, Deschamps V, Dhana K, Di Castelnuovo AF, Dias-da-Costa JS, Diaz A, Dickerson TT, Djalalinia S, Do HTP, Donfrancesco C, Donoso SP, Döring A, Dorobantu M, Doua K, Drygas W, Dulskiene V, Džakula A, Dzerve V, Dziankowska-Zaborszczyk E, Eggertsen R, Ekelund U, El Ati J, Elliott P, Elosua R, Erasmus RT, Erem C, Eriksen L, Eriksson JG, Escobedo-de la Peña J, Evans A, Faeh D, Fall CH, Farzadfar F, Felix-Redondo FJ, Ferguson TS, Fernandes RA, Fernández-Bergés D, Ferrante D, Ferrari M, Ferreccio C, Ferrieres J, Finn JD, Fischer K, Föger B, Foo LH, Forslund AS, Forsner M, Fouad HM, Francis DK, do Carmo Franco M, Franco OH, Frontera G, Fuchs FD, Fuchs SC, Fujita Y, Furusawa T, Gaciong Z, Galvano F, Garcia-de-la-Hera M, Gareta D, Garnett SP, Gaspoz JM, Gasull M, Gates L, Geleijnse JM, Ghasemian A, Ghimire A, Giampaoli S, Gianfagna F, Gill TK, Giovannelli J, Goldsmith RA, Gonçalves H, Gonzalez-Gross M, González-Rivas JP, Gorbea MB, Gottrand F, Graff-Iversen S, Grafnetter D, Grajda A, Grammatikopoulou MG, Gregor RD, Grodzicki T, Grøntved A, Grosso G, Gruden G, Grujic V, Gu D, Guan OP, Gudmundsson EF, Gudnason V, Guerrero R, Guessous I, Guimaraes AL, Gulliford MC, Gunnlaugsdottir J, Gunter M, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gureje O, Gurzkowska B, Gutierrez L, Gutzwiller F, Hadaegh F, Halkjær J, Hambleton IR, Hardy R, Hari Kumar R, Hata J, Hayes AJ, He J, He Y, Elisabeth M, Henriques A, Cadena LH, Herrala S, Heshmat R, Hihtaniemi IT, Ho SY, Ho SC, Hobbs M, Hofman A, Dinc GH, Horimoto ARVR, Hormiga CM, Horta BL, Houti L, Howitt C, Htay TT, Htet AS, Than Htike MM, Hu Y, Huerta JM, Huisman M, Husseini AS, Huybrechts I, Hwalla N, Iacoviello L, Iannone AG, Ibrahim MM, Wong NI, Ikeda N, Ikram MA, Irazola VE, Islam M, al-Safi Ismail A, Ivkovic V, Iwasaki M, Jackson RT, Jacobs JM, Jaddou H, Jafar T, Jamrozik K, Janszky I, Jasienska G, Jelaković A, Jelaković B, Jennings G, Jeong SL, Jiang CQ, Joffres M, Johansson M, Jokelainen JJ, Jonas JB, Jørgensen T, Joshi P, Jóźwiak J, Juolevi A, Jurak G, Jureša V, Kaaks R, Kafatos A, Kajantie EO, Kalter-Leibovici O, Kamaruddin NA, Karki KB, Kasaeian A, Katz J, Kauhanen J, Kaur P, Kavousi M, Kazakbaeva G, Keil U, Boker LK, Keinänen-Kiukaanniemi S, Kelishadi R, Kemper HCG, Kengne AP, Kerimkulova A, Kersting M, Key T, Khader YS, Khalili D, Khang YH, Khateeb M, Khaw KT, Kiechl-Kohlendorfer U, Kiechl S, Killewo J, Kim J, Kim YY, Klumbiene J, Knoflach M, Kolle E, Kolsteren P, Korrovits P, Koskinen S, Kouda K, Kowlessur S, Koziel S, Kriemler S, Kristensen PL, Krokstad S, Kromhout D, Kruger HS, Kubinova R, Kuciene R, Kuh D, Kujala UM, Kulaga Z, Krishna Kumar R, Kurjata P, Kusuma YS, Kuulasmaa K, Kyobutungi C, Laatikainen T, Lachat C, Lam TH, Landrove O, Lanska V, Lappas G, Larijani B, Laugsand LE, Laxmaiah A, Le Nguyen Bao K, Le TD, 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Trichopoulos D, Trichopoulou A, Trinh OTH, Trivedi A, Tshepo L, Tulloch-Reid MK, Tullu F, Tuomainen TP, Tuomilehto J, Turley ML, Tynelius P, Tzourio C, Ueda P, Ugel EE, Ulmer H, Uusitalo HMT, Valdivia G, Valvi D, van der Schouw YT, Van Herck K, Van Minh H, van Rossem L, Van Schoor NM, van Valkengoed IGM, Vanderschueren D, Vanuzzo D, Vatten L, Vega T, Velasquez-Melendez G, Veronesi G, Monique Verschuren WM, Verstraeten R, Victora CG, Viet L, Viikari-Juntura E, Vineis P, Vioque J, Virtanen JK, Visvikis-Siest S, Viswanathan B, Vlasoff T, Vollenweider P, Voutilainen S, Wade AN, Wagner A, Walton J, Wan Bebakar WM, Wan Mohamud WN, Wanderley RS, Wang MD, Wang Q, Wang YX, Wang YW, Wannamethee SG, Wareham N, Wedderkopp N, Weerasekera D, Whincup PH, Widhalm K, Widyahening IS, Wiecek A, Wijga AH, Wilks RJ, Willeit J, Willeit P, Williams EA, Wilsgaard T, Wojtyniak B, Wong-McClure RA, Wong JYY, Wong TY, Woo J, Woodward M, Giwercman Wu A, Wu FC, Wu S, Xu H, Yan W, Yang X, Ye X, Yiallouros PK, Yoshihara A, Younger-Coleman NO, Yusoff AF, Zainuddin AA, Zambon S, Zampelas A, Zdrojewski T, Zeng Y, Zhao D, Zhao W, Zheng W, Zheng Y, Zhu D, Zhussupov B, Zimmermann E, Cisneros JZ. Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: a pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants. Int J Epidemiol 2018; 47:872-883i. [PMID: 29579276 PMCID: PMC6005056 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyy016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Revised: 01/16/2018] [Accepted: 01/24/2018] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. METHODS We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probit-transformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. RESULTS In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the high-income Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. CONCLUSIONS Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups.
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D, Pigeot I, Pikhart H, Pilav A, Pilotto L, Pistelli F, Pitakaka F, Piwonska A, Plans-Rubió P, Poh BK, Pohlabeln H, Pop RM, Popovic SR, Porta M, Portegies MLP, Posch G, Poulimeneas D, Pouraram H, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Pradeepa R, Prashant M, Price JF, Puder JJ, Pudule I, Puiu M, Punab M, Qasrawi RF, Qorbani M, Bao TQ, Radic I, Radisauskas R, Rahman M, Rahman M, Raitakari O, Raj M, Rao SR, Ramachandran A, Ramke J, Ramos E, Ramos R, Rampal L, Rampal S, Rascon-Pacheco RA, Redon J, Reganit PFM, Ribas-Barba L, Ribeiro R, Riboli E, Rigo F, de Wit TFR, Rito A, Ritti-Dias RM, Rivera JA, Robinson SM, Robitaille C, Rodrigues D, Rodríguez-Artalejo F, del Cristo Rodriguez-Perez M, Rodríguez-Villamizar LA, Rojas-Martinez R, Rojroongwasinkul N, Romaguera D, Ronkainen K, Rosengren A, Rouse I, Roy JGR, Rubinstein A, Rühli FJ, Ruiz-Betancourt BS, Russo P, Rutkowski M, Sabanayagam C, Sachdev HS, Saidi O, Salanave B, Martinez ES, Salmerón D, Salomaa V, Salonen JT, Salvetti M, Sánchez-Abanto J, Sandjaja, Sans S, Marina LS, Santos DA, Santos IS, Santos O, dos Santos RN, Santos R, Saramies JL, Sardinha LB, Sarrafzadegan N, Saum KU, Savva S, Savy M, Scazufca M, Rosario AS, Schargrodsky H, Schienkiewitz A, Schipf S, Schmidt CO, Schmidt IM, Schultsz C, Schutte AE, Sein AA, Sen A, Senbanjo IO, Sepanlou SG, Serra-Majem L, Shalnova SA, Sharma SK, Shaw JE, Shibuya K, Shin DW, Shin Y, Shiri R, Siani A, Siantar R, Sibai AM, Silva AM, Silva DAS, Simon M, Simons J, Simons LA, Sjöberg A, Sjöström M, Skovbjerg S, Slowikowska-Hilczer J, Slusarczyk P, Smeeth L, Smith MC, Snijder MB, So HK, Sobngwi E, Söderberg S, Soekatri MYE, Solfrizzi V, Sonestedt E, Song Y, Sørensen TIA, Soric M, Jérome CS, Soumare A, Spinelli A, Spiroski I, Staessen JA, Stamm H, Starc G, Stathopoulou MG, Staub K, Stavreski B, Steene-Johannessen J, Stehle P, Stein AD, Stergiou GS, Stessman J, Stieber J, Stöckl D, Stocks T, Stokwiszewski J, Stratton G, Stronks K, Strufaldi MW, Suárez-Medina R, Sun CA, Sundström J, Sung YT, Sunyer J, Suriyawongpaisal P, Swinburn BA, Sy RG, Szponar L, Tai ES, Tammesoo ML, Tamosiunas A, Tan EJ, Tang X, Tanser F, Tao Y, Tarawneh MR, Tarp J, Tarqui-Mamani CB, Tautu OF, Braunerová RT, Taylor A, Tchibindat F, Theobald H, Theodoridis X, Thijs L, Thuesen BH, Tjonneland A, Tolonen HK, Tolstrup JS, Topbas M, Topór-Madry R, Tormo MJ, Tornaritis MJ, Torrent M, Toselli S, Traissac P, Trichopoulos D, Trichopoulou A, Trinh OTH, Trivedi A, Tshepo L, Tsigga M, Tsugane S, Tulloch-Reid MK, Tullu F, Tuomainen TP, Tuomilehto J, Turley ML, Tynelius P, Tzotzas T, Tzourio C, Ueda P, Ugel EE, Ukoli FAM, Ulmer H, Unal B, Uusitalo HMT, Valdivia G, Vale S, Valvi D, van der Schouw YT, Van Herck K, Van Minh H, van Rossem L, Van Schoor NM, van Valkengoed IGM, Vanderschueren D, Vanuzzo D, Vatten L, Vega T, Veidebaum T, Velasquez-Melendez G, Velika B, Veronesi G, Verschuren WMM, Victora CG, Viegi G, Viet L, Viikari-Juntura E, Vineis P, Vioque J, Virtanen JK, Visvikis-Siest S, Viswanathan B, Vlasoff T, Vollenweider P, Völzke H, Voutilainen S, Vrijheid M, Wade AN, Wagner A, Waldhör T, Walton J, Bebakar WMW, Mohamud WNW, Wanderley RS, Wang MD, Wang Q, Wang YX, Wang YW, Wannamethee SG, Wareham N, Weber A, Wedderkopp N, Weerasekera D, Whincup PH, Widhalm K, Widyahening IS, Wiecek A, Wijga AH, Wilks RJ, Willeit J, Willeit P, Wilsgaard T, Wojtyniak B, Wong-McClure RA, Wong JYY, Wong JE, Wong TY, Woo J, Woodward M, Wu FC, Wu J, Wu S, Xu H, Xu L, Yamborisut U, Yan W, Yang X, Yardim N, Ye X, Yiallouros PK, Yngve A, Yoshihara A, You QS, Younger-Coleman NO, Yusoff F, Yusoff MFM, Zaccagni L, Zafiropulos V, Zainuddin AA, Zambon S, Zampelas A, Zamrazilová H, Zdrojewski T, Zeng Y, Zhao D, Zhao W, Zheng W, Zheng Y, Zholdin B, Zhou M, Zhu D, Zhussupov B, Zimmermann E, Cisneros JZ, Bentham J, Di Cesare M, Bilano V, Bixby H, Zhou B, Stevens GA, Riley LM, Taddei C, Hajifathalian K, Lu Y, Savin S, Cowan MJ, Paciorek CJ, Chirita-Emandi A, Hayes AJ, Katz J, Kelishadi R, Kengne AP, Khang YH, Laxmaiah A, Li Y, Ma J, Miranda JJ, Mostafa A, Neovius M, Padez C, Rampal L, Zhu A, Bennett JE, Danaei G, Bhutta ZA, Ezzati M. Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128·9 million children, adolescents, and adults. Lancet 2017; 390:2627-2642. [PMID: 29029897 PMCID: PMC5735219 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)32129-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3623] [Impact Index Per Article: 517.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2017] [Revised: 07/12/2017] [Accepted: 07/19/2017] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults. METHODS We pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5-19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5-19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity). FINDINGS Regional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (-0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval -0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69-1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64-1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (-0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50-1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4-1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8-6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5-1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7-9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0-12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8-10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4-19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3-14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7-29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5-38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44-117) million girls and 117 (70-178) million boys worldwide were moderately or severely underweight. In the same year, 50 (24-89) million girls and 74 (39-125) million boys worldwide were obese. INTERPRETATION The rising trends in children's and adolescents' BMI have plateaued in many high-income countries, albeit at high levels, but have accelerated in parts of Asia, with trends no longer correlated with those of adults. FUNDING Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme.
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Kengne AP, Bentham J, Zhou B, Peer N, Matsha TE, Bixby H, Di Cesare M, Hajifathalian K, Lu Y, Taddei C, Bovet P, Kyobutungi C, Agyemang C, Aounallah-Skhiri H, Assah FK, Barkat A, Romdhane HB, Chan Q, Chaturvedi N, Damasceno A, Delisle H, Delpeuch F, Doua K, Egbagbe EE, Ati JE, Elliott P, Engle-Stone R, Erasmus RT, Fouad HM, Gareta D, Gureje O, Hendriks ME, Houti L, Ibrahim MM, Kemper HCG, Killewo J, Kowlessur S, Kruger HS, Laamiri FZ, Laid Y, Levitt NS, Lunet N, Magliano DJ, Maire B, Martin-Prevel Y, Mediene-Benchekor S, Mohamed MK, Mondo CK, Monyeki KD, Mostafa A, Nankap M, Owusu-Dabo E, Rinke de Wit TF, Saidi O, Schultsz C, Schutte AE, Senbanjo IO, Shaw JE, Smeeth L, Sobngwi E, Jérome CS, Stronks K, Tanser F, Tchibindat F, Traissac P, Tshepo L, Tullu F, Ukoli FAM, Viswanathan B, Wade AN, Danaei G, Stevens GA, Riley LM, Ezzati M, Mbanya JCN. Trends in obesity and diabetes across Africa from 1980 to 2014: an analysis of pooled population-based studies. Int J Epidemiol 2017; 46:1421-1432. [PMID: 28582528 PMCID: PMC5837192 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyx078] [Citation(s) in RCA: 155] [Impact Index Per Article: 22.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Revised: 04/09/2017] [Accepted: 04/18/2017] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The 2016 Dar Es Salaam Call to Action on Diabetes and Other non-communicable diseases (NCDs) advocates national multi-sectoral NCD strategies and action plans based on available data and information from countries of sub-Saharan Africa and beyond. We estimated trends from 1980 to 2014 in age-standardized mean body mass index (BMI) and diabetes prevalence in these countries, in order to assess the co-progression and assist policy formulation. Methods We pooled data from African and worldwide population-based studies which measured height, weight and biomarkers to assess diabetes status in adults aged ≥ 18 years. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate trends by sex for 200 countries and territories including 53 countries across five African regions (central, eastern, northern, southern and western), in mean BMI and diabetes prevalence (defined as either fasting plasma glucose of ≥ 7.0 mmol/l, history of diabetes diagnosis, or use of insulin or oral glucose control agents). Results African data came from 245 population-based surveys (1.2 million participants) for BMI and 76 surveys (182 000 participants) for diabetes prevalence estimates. Countries with the highest number of data sources for BMI were South Africa (n = 17), Nigeria (n = 15) and Egypt (n = 13); and for diabetes estimates, Tanzania (n = 8), Tunisia (n = 7), and Cameroon, Egypt and South Africa (all n = 6). The age-standardized mean BMI increased from 21.0 kg/m2 (95% credible interval: 20.3-21.7) to 23.0 kg/m2 (22.7-23.3) in men, and from 21.9 kg/m2 (21.3-22.5) to 24.9 kg/m2 (24.6-25.1) in women. The age-standardized prevalence of diabetes increased from 3.4% (1.5-6.3) to 8.5% (6.5-10.8) in men, and from 4.1% (2.0-7.5) to 8.9% (6.9-11.2) in women. Estimates in northern and southern regions were mostly higher than the global average; those in central, eastern and western regions were lower than global averages. A positive association (correlation coefficient ≃ 0.9) was observed between mean BMI and diabetes prevalence in both sexes in 1980 and 2014. Conclusions These estimates, based on limited data sources, confirm the rapidly increasing burden of diabetes in Africa. This rise is being driven, at least in part, by increasing adiposity, with regional variations in observed trends. African countries' efforts to prevent and control diabetes and obesity should integrate the setting up of reliable monitoring systems, consistent with the World Health Organization's Global Monitoring System Framework.
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Kontis V, Mathers CD, Rehm J, Stevens GA, Shield KD, Bonita R, Riley LM, Poznyak V, Beaglehole R, Ezzati M. Contribution of six risk factors to achieving the 25×25 non-communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modelling study. Lancet 2014; 384:427-37. [PMID: 24797573 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(14)60616-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 270] [Impact Index Per Article: 27.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Countries have agreed to reduce premature mortality (defined as the probability of dying between the ages of 30 years and 70 years) from four main non-communicable diseases (NCDs)--cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, cancers, and diabetes--by 25% from 2010 levels by 2025 (referred to as 25×25 target). Targets for selected NCD risk factors have also been agreed on. We estimated the contribution of achieving six risk factor targets towards meeting the 25×25 mortality target. METHODS We estimated the impact of achieving the targets for six risk factors (tobacco and alcohol use, salt intake, obesity, and raised blood pressure and glucose) on NCD mortality between 2010 and 2025. Our methods accounted for multi-causality of NCDs and for the fact that when risk factor exposure increases or decreases, the harmful or beneficial effects on NCDs accumulate gradually. We used data for risk factor and mortality trends from systematic analyses of available country data. Relative risks for the effects of individual and multiple risks, and for change in risk after decreases or increases in exposure, were from re-analyses and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies. FINDINGS If risk factor targets are achieved, the probability of dying from the four main NCDs between the ages of 30 years and 70 years will decrease by 22% in men and by 19% in women between 2010 and 2025, compared with a decrease of 11% in men and 10% in women under the so-called business-as-usual trends (ie, projections based on current trends with no additional action). Achieving the risk factor targets will delay or prevent more than 37 million deaths (16 million in people aged 30-69 years and 21 million in people aged 70 years or older) from the main NCDs over these 15 years compared with a situation of rising or stagnating risk factor trends. Most of the benefits of achieving the risk factor targets, including 31 million of the delayed or prevented deaths, will be in low-income and middle-income countries, and will help to reduce the global inequality in premature NCD mortality. A more ambitious target on tobacco use (a 50% reduction) will almost reach the target in men (>24% reduction in the probability of death), and enhance the benefits to a 20% reduction in women. INTERPRETATION If the agreed risk factor targets are met, premature mortality from the four main NCDs will decrease to levels that are close to the 25×25 target, with most of these benefits seen in low-income and middle-income countries. On the basis of mortality benefits and feasibility, a more ambitious target than currently agreed should be adopted for tobacco use. FUNDING UK MRC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vasilis Kontis
- MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Colin D Mathers
- Department of Health Statistics and Information Systems, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Jürgen Rehm
- Social and Epidemiological Research Department, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, ON, Canada; Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, ON, Canada; Klinische Psychologie and Psychotherapie, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany
| | - Gretchen A Stevens
- Department of Health Statistics and Information Systems, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Kevin D Shield
- Social and Epidemiological Research Department, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Ruth Bonita
- University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Leanne M Riley
- Department for Prevention of Noncommunicable Diseases, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Vladimir Poznyak
- Department of Mental Health and Substance Abuse, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Majid Ezzati
- MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
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Danaei G, Singh GM, Paciorek CJ, Lin JK, Cowan MJ, Finucane MM, Farzadfar F, Stevens GA, Riley LM, Lu Y, Rao M, Ezzati M. Response to letter regarding article, "the global cardiovascular risk transition: associations of four metabolic risk factors with macroeconomic variables in 1980 and 2008". Circulation 2014; 128:e378. [PMID: 24166421 DOI: 10.1161/circulationaha.113.005449] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Goodarz Danaei
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA
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Danaei G, Singh GM, Paciorek CJ, Lin JK, Cowan MJ, Finucane MM, Farzadfar F, Stevens GA, Riley LM, Lu Y, Rao M, Ezzati M. The global cardiovascular risk transition: associations of four metabolic risk factors with national income, urbanization, and Western diet in 1980 and 2008. Circulation 2013; 127:1493-502, 1502e1-8. [PMID: 23481623 DOI: 10.1161/circulationaha.113.001470] [Citation(s) in RCA: 176] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND It is commonly assumed that cardiovascular disease risk factors are associated with affluence and Westernization. We investigated the associations of body mass index (BMI), fasting plasma glucose, systolic blood pressure, and serum total cholesterol with national income, Western diet, and, for BMI, urbanization in 1980 and 2008. METHODS AND RESULTS Country-level risk factor estimates for 199 countries between 1980 and 2008 were from a previous systematic analysis of population-based data. We analyzed the associations between risk factors and per capita national income, a measure of Western diet, and, for BMI, the percentage of the population living in urban areas. In 1980, there was a positive association between national income and population mean BMI, systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol. By 2008, the slope of the association between national income and systolic blood pressure became negative for women and zero for men. Total cholesterol was associated with national income and Western diet in both 1980 and 2008. In 1980, BMI rose with national income and then flattened at ≈Int$7000; by 2008, the relationship resembled an inverted U for women, peaking at middle-income levels. BMI had a positive relationship with the percentage of urban population in both 1980 and 2008. Fasting plasma glucose had weaker associations with these country macro characteristics, but it was positively associated with BMI. CONCLUSIONS The changing associations of metabolic risk factors with macroeconomic variables indicate that there will be a global pandemic of hyperglycemia and diabetes mellitus, together with high blood pressure in low-income countries, unless effective lifestyle and pharmacological interventions are implemented.
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Affiliation(s)
- Goodarz Danaei
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
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Singh GM, Danaei G, Pelizzari PM, Lin JK, Cowan MJ, Stevens GA, Farzadfar F, Khang YH, Lu Y, Riley LM, Lim SS, Ezzati M. The age associations of blood pressure, cholesterol, and glucose: analysis of health examination surveys from international populations. Circulation 2012; 125:2204-2211. [PMID: 22492580 DOI: 10.1161/circulationaha.111.058834] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The age association of cardiovascular disease may be in part because its metabolic risk factors tend to rise with age. Few studies have analyzed age associations of multiple metabolic risks in the same population, especially in nationally representative samples. We examined worldwide variations in the age associations of systolic blood pressure (SBP), total cholesterol (TC), and fasting plasma glucose (FPG). METHODS AND RESULTS We used individual records from 83 nationally or subnationally representative health examination surveys in 52 countries to fit a linear model to risk factor data between ages 30 and 64 years for SBP and FPG, and between 30 and 54 years for TC. We report the cross-country variation of the slope and intercept of this relationship. We also assessed nonlinear associations in older ages. Between 30 and 64 years of age, SBP increased by 1.7 to 11.6 mm Hg per 10 years of age, and FPG increased by 0.8 to 20.4 mg/dL per 10 years of age in different countries and in the 2 sexes. Between 30 and 54 years of age, TC increased by 0.2 to 22.4 mg/dL per 10 years of age in different surveys and in the 2 sexes. For all risk factors and in most countries, risk factor levels rose more steeply among women than among men, especially for TC. On average, there was a flattening of age-SBP relationship in older ages; TC and FPG age associations reversed in older ages, leading to lower levels in older ages than in middle ages. CONCLUSIONS The rise with age of major metabolic cardiovascular disease risk factors varied substantially across populations, especially for FPG and TC. TC rose more steeply in high-income countries and FPG in the Oceania countries, the Middle East, and the United States. The SBP age association had no specific income or geographical pattern.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - John K Lin
- Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Yuan Lu
- Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, USA
| | | | | | - Majid Ezzati
- School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
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Danaei G, Finucane MM, Lu Y, Singh GM, Cowan MJ, Paciorek CJ, Lin JK, Farzadfar F, Khang YH, Stevens GA, Rao M, Ali MK, Riley LM, Robinson CA, Ezzati M. National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2·7 million participants. Lancet 2011; 378:31-40. [PMID: 21705069 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(11)60679-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2384] [Impact Index Per Article: 183.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Data for trends in glycaemia and diabetes prevalence are needed to understand the effects of diet and lifestyle within populations, assess the performance of interventions, and plan health services. No consistent and comparable global analysis of trends has been done. We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and diabetes prevalence for adults aged 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. METHODS We obtained data from health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (370 country-years and 2·7 million participants). We converted systematically between different glycaemic metrics. For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean FPG and its uncertainty by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally, subnationally, or community representative. FINDINGS In 2008, global age-standardised mean FPG was 5·50 mmol/L (95% uncertainty interval 5·37-5·63) for men and 5·42 mmol/L (5·29-5·54) for women, having risen by 0·07 mmol/L and 0·09 mmol/L per decade, respectively. Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence was 9·8% (8·6-11·2) in men and 9·2% (8·0-10·5) in women in 2008, up from 8·3% (6·5-10·4) and 7·5% (5·8-9·6) in 1980. The number of people with diabetes increased from 153 (127-182) million in 1980, to 347 (314-382) million in 2008. We recorded almost no change in mean FPG in east and southeast Asia and central and eastern Europe. Oceania had the largest rise, and the highest mean FPG (6·09 mmol/L, 5·73-6·49 for men; 6·08 mmol/L, 5·72-6·46 for women) and diabetes prevalence (15·5%, 11·6-20·1 for men; and 15·9%, 12·1-20·5 for women) in 2008. Mean FPG and diabetes prevalence in 2008 were also high in south Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and central Asia, north Africa, and the Middle East. Mean FPG in 2008 was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, east and southeast Asia, and high-income Asia-Pacific. In high-income subregions, western Europe had the smallest rise, 0·07 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·03 mmol/L per decade for women; North America had the largest rise, 0·18 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·14 mmol/L per decade for women. INTERPRETATION Glycaemia and diabetes are rising globally, driven both by population growth and ageing and by increasing age-specific prevalences. Effective preventive interventions are needed, and health systems should prepare to detect and manage diabetes and its sequelae. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.
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Affiliation(s)
- Goodarz Danaei
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
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Guthold R, Louazani SA, Riley LM, Cowan MJ, Bovet P, Damasceno A, Sambo BH, Tesfaye F, Armstrong TP. Physical activity in 22 African countries: results from the World Health Organization STEPwise approach to chronic disease risk factor surveillance. Am J Prev Med 2011; 41:52-60. [PMID: 21665063 DOI: 10.1016/j.amepre.2011.03.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 113] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2010] [Revised: 02/04/2011] [Accepted: 03/04/2011] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Baseline physical activity data are needed to effectively plan programs and policies to prevent noncommunicable diseases, but for many African countries these data are lacking. PURPOSE To describe and compare levels and patterns of physical activity among adults across 22 African countries. METHODS Data from 57,038 individuals from 22 countries (11 national and 11 subnational samples) that participated in the STEPwise approach to chronic disease risk factor surveillance (2003-2009) were analyzed in 2010. The validated Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ) was used to assess days and duration of physical activity at work, for transport, and during leisure time in a typical week. RESULTS Overall, 83.8% of men and 75.7% of women met WHO physical activity recommendations (at least 150 minutes of moderate activity per week or equivalent). Country prevalence ranged from 46.8% (Mali) to 96.0% (Mozambique). Physical activity, both at work and for transport, including walking, had large contributions to overall physical activity, while physical activity during leisure time was rare in the analyzed countries. CONCLUSIONS Physical activity levels varied greatly across African countries and population subgroups. Leisure time activity was consistently low. These data will be useful to inform policymakers and to guide interventions to promote physical activity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Regina Guthold
- Department of Chronic Diseases and Health Promotion, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
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Finucane MM, Stevens GA, Cowan MJ, Danaei G, Lin JK, Paciorek CJ, Singh GM, Gutierrez HR, Lu Y, Bahalim AN, Farzadfar F, Riley LM, Ezzati M. National, regional, and global trends in body-mass index since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 960 country-years and 9·1 million participants. Lancet 2011; 377:557-67. [PMID: 21295846 PMCID: PMC4472365 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(10)62037-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2832] [Impact Index Per Article: 217.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Excess bodyweight is a major public health concern. However, few worldwide comparative analyses of long-term trends of body-mass index (BMI) have been done, and none have used recent national health examination surveys. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean BMI. METHODS We estimated trends and their uncertainties of mean BMI for adults 20 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (960 country-years and 9·1 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean BMI by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative. FINDINGS Between 1980 and 2008, mean BMI worldwide increased by 0·4 kg/m(2) per decade (95% uncertainty interval 0·2-0·6, posterior probability of being a true increase >0·999) for men and 0·5 kg/m(2) per decade (0·3-0·7, posterior probability >0·999) for women. National BMI change for women ranged from non-significant decreases in 19 countries to increases of more than 2·0 kg/m(2) per decade (posterior probabilities >0·99) in nine countries in Oceania. Male BMI increased in all but eight countries, by more than 2 kg/m(2) per decade in Nauru and Cook Islands (posterior probabilities >0·999). Male and female BMIs in 2008 were highest in some Oceania countries, reaching 33·9 kg/m(2) (32·8-35·0) for men and 35·0 kg/m(2) (33·6-36·3) for women in Nauru. Female BMI was lowest in Bangladesh (20·5 kg/m(2), 19·8-21·3) and male BMI in Democratic Republic of the Congo 19·9 kg/m(2) (18·2-21·5), with BMI less than 21·5 kg/m(2) for both sexes in a few countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and east, south, and southeast Asia. The USA had the highest BMI of high-income countries. In 2008, an estimated 1·46 billion adults (1·41-1·51 billion) worldwide had BMI of 25 kg/m(2) or greater, of these 205 million men (193-217 million) and 297 million women (280-315 million) were obese. INTERPRETATION Globally, mean BMI has increased since 1980. The trends since 1980, and mean population BMI in 2008, varied substantially between nations. Interventions and policies that can curb or reverse the increase, and mitigate the health effects of high BMI by targeting its metabolic mediators, are needed in most countries. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mariel M Finucane
- Department of Biostatistics, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
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Danaei G, Finucane MM, Lin JK, Singh GM, Paciorek CJ, Cowan MJ, Farzadfar F, Stevens GA, Lim SS, Riley LM, Ezzati M. National, regional, and global trends in systolic blood pressure since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 786 country-years and 5·4 million participants. Lancet 2011; 377:568-77. [PMID: 21295844 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(10)62036-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 711] [Impact Index Per Article: 54.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Data for trends in blood pressure are needed to understand the effects of its dietary, lifestyle, and pharmacological determinants; set intervention priorities; and evaluate national programmes. However, few worldwide analyses of trends in blood pressure have been done. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean systolic blood pressure (SBP). METHODS We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean SBP for adults 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (786 country-years and 5·4 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean SBP by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative. FINDINGS In 2008, age-standardised mean SBP worldwide was 128·1 mm Hg (95% uncertainty interval 126·7-129·4) in men and 124·4 mm Hg (123·0-125·9) in women. Globally, between 1980 and 2008, SBP decreased by 0·8 mm Hg per decade (-0·4 to 2·2, posterior probability of being a true decline=0·90) in men and 1·0 mm Hg per decade (-0·3 to 2·3, posterior probability=0·93) in women. Female SBP decreased by 3·5 mm Hg or more per decade in western Europe and Australasia (posterior probabilities ≥0·999). Male SBP fell most in high-income North America, by 2·8 mm Hg per decade (1·3-4·5, posterior probability >0·999), followed by Australasia and western Europe where it decreased by more than 2·0 mm Hg per decade (posterior probabilities >0·98). SBP rose in Oceania, east Africa, and south and southeast Asia for both sexes, and in west Africa for women, with the increases ranging 0·8-1·6 mm Hg per decade in men (posterior probabilities 0·72-0·91) and 1·0-2·7 mm Hg per decade for women (posterior probabilities 0·75-0·98). Female SBP was highest in some east and west African countries, with means of 135 mm Hg or greater. Male SBP was highest in Baltic and east and west African countries, where mean SBP reached 138 mm Hg or more. Men and women in western Europe had the highest SBP in high-income regions. INTERPRETATION On average, global population SBP decreased slightly since 1980, but trends varied significantly across regions and countries. SBP is currently highest in low-income and middle-income countries. Effective population-based and personal interventions should be targeted towards low-income and middle-income countries. FUNDING Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.
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Affiliation(s)
- Goodarz Danaei
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
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Farzadfar F, Finucane MM, Danaei G, Pelizzari PM, Cowan MJ, Paciorek CJ, Singh GM, Lin JK, Stevens GA, Riley LM, Ezzati M. National, regional, and global trends in serum total cholesterol since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 321 country-years and 3·0 million participants. Lancet 2011; 377:578-86. [PMID: 21295847 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(10)62038-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 386] [Impact Index Per Article: 29.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Data for trends in serum cholesterol are needed to understand the effects of its dietary, lifestyle, and pharmacological determinants; set intervention priorities; and evaluate national programmes. Previous analyses of trends in serum cholesterol were limited to a few countries, with no consistent and comparable global analysis. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean serum total cholesterol. METHODS We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean serum total cholesterol for adults 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (321 country-years and 3·0 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean total cholesterol by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative. FINDINGS In 2008, age-standardised mean total cholesterol worldwide was 4·64 mmol/L (95% uncertainty interval 4·51-4·76) for men and 4·76 mmol/L (4·62-4·91) for women. Globally, mean total cholesterol changed little between 1980 and 2008, falling by less than 0·1 mmol/L per decade in men and women. Total cholesterol fell in the high-income region consisting of Australasia, North America, and western Europe, and in central and eastern Europe; the regional declines were about 0·2 mmol/L per decade for both sexes, with posterior probabilities of these being true declines 0·99 or greater. Mean total cholesterol increased in east and southeast Asia and Pacific by 0·08 mmol/L per decade (-0·06 to 0·22, posterior probability=0·86) in men and 0·09 mmol/L per decade (-0·07 to 0·26, posterior probability=0·86) in women. Despite converging trends, serum total cholesterol in 2008 was highest in the high-income region consisting of Australasia, North America, and western Europe; the regional mean was 5·24 mmol/L (5·08-5·39) for men and 5·23 mmol/L (5·03-5·43) for women. It was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa at 4·08 mmol/L (3·82-4·34) for men and 4·27 mmol/L (3·99-4·56) for women. INTERPRETATION Nutritional policies and pharmacological interventions should be used to accelerate improvements in total cholesterol in regions with decline and to curb or prevent the rise in Asian populations and elsewhere. Population-based surveillance of cholesterol needs to be improved in low-income and middle-income countries. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.
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Affiliation(s)
- Farshad Farzadfar
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
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Alwan A, Maclean DR, Riley LM, d'Espaignet ET, Mathers CD, Stevens GA, Bettcher D. Monitoring and surveillance of chronic non-communicable diseases: progress and capacity in high-burden countries. Lancet 2010; 376:1861-8. [PMID: 21074258 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(10)61853-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 342] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
The burden of chronic, non-communicable diseases in low-income and middle-income countries is increasing. We outline a framework for monitoring of such diseases and review the mortality burden and the capacity of countries to respond to them. We show data from WHO data sources and published work for prevalence of tobacco use, overweight, and cause-specific mortality in 23 low-income and middle-income countries with a high burden of non-communicable disease. Data for national capacity for chronic disease prevention and control were generated from a global assessment that was done in WHO member states in 2009-10. Although reliable data for cause-specific mortality are scarce, non-communicable diseases were estimated to be responsible for 23·4 million (or 64% of the total) deaths in the 23 countries that we analysed, with 47% occurring in people who were younger than 70 years. Tobacco use and overweight are common in most of the countries and populations we examined, but coverage of cost-effective interventions to reduce these risk factors is low. Capacity for prevention and control of non-communicable diseases, including monitoring and surveillance operations nationally, is inadequate. A surveillance framework, including a minimum set of indicators covering exposures and outcomes, is essential for policy development and assessment and for monitoring of trends in disease. Technical, human, and fiscal resource constraints are major impediments to the establishment of effective prevention and control programmes. Despite increasing awareness and commitment to address chronic disease, concrete actions by global partners to plan and implement cost-effective interventions are inadequate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ala Alwan
- Non-communicable Diseases and Mental Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
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Guthold R, Cowan MJ, Autenrieth CS, Kann L, Riley LM. Physical activity and sedentary behavior among schoolchildren: a 34-country comparison. J Pediatr 2010; 157:43-49.e1. [PMID: 20304415 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpeds.2010.01.019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 219] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/27/2009] [Revised: 11/16/2009] [Accepted: 01/14/2010] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To describe and compare levels of physical activity and sedentary behavior in schoolchildren from 34 countries across 5 WHO Regions. STUDY DESIGN The analysis included 72,845 schoolchildren from 34 countries that participated in the Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) and conducted data collection between 2003 and 2007. The questionnaire included questions on overall physical activity, walking, or biking to school, and on time spent sitting. RESULTS Very few students engaged in sufficient physical activity. Across all countries, 23.8% of boys and 15.4% of girls met recommendations, with the lowest prevalence in Philippines and Zambia (both 8.8%) and the highest in India (37.5%). The prevalence of walking or riding a bicycle to school ranged from 18.6% in United Arab Emirates to 84.8% in China. In more than half of the countries, more than one third of the students spent 3 or more hours per day on sedentary activities, excluding the hours spent sitting at school and doing homework. CONCLUSIONS The great majority of students did not meet physical activity recommendations. Additionally, levels of sedentariness were high. These findings require immediate action, and efforts should be made worldwide to increase levels of physical activity among schoolchildren.
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Affiliation(s)
- Regina Guthold
- Department of Chronic Diseases and Health Promotion, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
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Yack HJ, Riley LM, Whieldon TR. Anterior tibial translation during progressive loading of the ACL-deficient knee during weight-bearing and nonweight-bearing isometric exercise. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 1994; 20:247-53. [PMID: 7827632 DOI: 10.2519/jospt.1994.20.5.247] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
Many protocols for rehabilitating the knee following anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury or repair call for the use of both weight-bearing and nonweight-bearing exercises. However, not much is known about the strain these exercises place on the passive restraining mechanisms. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of progressive loading of the knee extensors on anterior tibial translation during weight-bearing and nonweight-bearing isometric exercise. Fourteen subjects diagnosed as ACL-deficient via arthroscopic surgery participated in the study. An arthrometer was used to measure anterior tibial translation during weight-bearing and nonweight-bearing exercises with the knee in 20 degrees of flexion and with a quadriceps load equivalent to 25, 50, 75, and 100% of body weight. Hamstring muscle activations during all testing were monitored to eliminate the possibility of substantial cocontractions. During the weight-bearing exercise, anterior tibial translation was found to be significantly less than that measured during the Lachman's evaluation and the 50, 75, and 100% nonweight-bearing exercises. For the nonweight-bearing exercises, anterior tibial translation was either equivalent to or greater than the Lachman's evaluation. During the weight-bearing exercises, anterior tibial translation was not different under the different loading conditions. During the nonweight-bearing exercises, anterior tibial translation progressively increased with increased loading. The results from this study imply that weight-bearing exercises minimize strain to the passive restraining structures whereas nonweight-bearing exercises will strain these structures, and the magnitude of this strain appears to be proportional to the knee extensor moment.
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Affiliation(s)
- H J Yack
- Physical Therapy Graduate Program, College of Medicine, University of Iowa, Iowa City 52242
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