Identification and Characterization of Synthetic Nicotine Product Promotion and Sales on Instagram Using Natural Language Processing

INTRODUCTION

There has been a rapid proliferation of synthetic nicotine products in recent years, despite newly established regulatory authority and limited research into its health risks. Previous research has implicated social media platforms as an avenue for nicotine product unregulated sales. Yet, little is known about synthetic nicotine product content on social media. We utilized natural language processing to characterize the sales of synthetic nicotine products on Instagram.

METHODS

We collected Instagram posts by querying Instagram hashtags (eg, "#tobaccofreenicotine) related to synthetic nicotine. Using Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers, collected posts were categorized into thematically related topic clusters. Posts within topic clusters relevant to study aims were then manually annotated for variables related to promotion and selling (eg, cost discussion, contact information for offline sales).

RESULTS

A total of 7425 unique posts were collected with 2219 posts identified as related to promotion and selling of synthetic nicotine products. Nicotine pouches (52.9%, n = 1174), electronic nicotine delivery systems (30.6%, n = 679), and flavored e-liquids (14.1%, n = 313) were most commonly promoted. About 16.1% (n = 345) of posts contained embedded hyperlinks and 5.8% (n = 129) provided contact information for purported offline transactions. Only 17.6% (n = 391) of posts contained synthetic nicotine-specific health warnings.

CONCLUSIONS

In the United States, synthetic nicotine products can only be legally marketed if they have received premarket authorization from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Despite these prohibitions, Instagram appears to be a hub for potentially unregulated sales of synthetic and "tobacco-free" products. Efforts are needed by platforms and regulators to enhance content moderation and prevent unregulated online sales of existing and emerging synthetic nicotine products.

IMPLICATIONS

There is limited clinical understanding of synthetic nicotine's unique health risks and how these novel products are changing over time due to regulatory oversight. Despite synthetic nicotine-specific regulatory measures, such as the requirement for premarket authorization and FDA warning letters issued to unauthorized sellers, access to and promotion of synthetic nicotine is widely occurring on Instagram, a platform with over 2 billion users and one that is popular among youth and young adults. Activities include direct-to-consumer sales from questionable sources, inadequate health warning disclosure, and exposure with limited age restrictions, all conditions necessary for the sale of various tobacco products. Notably, the number of these Instagram posts increased in response to the announcement of new FDA regulations. In response, more robust online monitoring, content moderation, and proactive enforcement are needed from platforms who should work collaboratively with regulators to identify, report, and remove content in clear violation of platform policies and federal laws. Regulatory implementation and enforcement should prioritize digital platforms as conduits for unregulated access to synthetic nicotine products and other future novel and emerging tobacco products.

Health Disparities in Time to Diagnosis and Survival Post-Diagnosis of Cirrhosis in Individuals with Alcohol Use Disorder: A Retrospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

This study investigates the impact of race, gender, and ethnicity on the progression from diagnosis to cirrhosis and subsequent survival in patients with alcohol use disorder, with a specific focus on identifying potential disparities in health outcomes.

METHOD

Employing a STROBE-compliant, retrospective cohort design, we analyzed data from patients diagnosed with alcohol use disorder from January 2000 to December 2022, using the University of California Health Data Warehouse. We estimated survival functions using the Kaplan-Meier method and assessed demographic associations using both bivariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

The analysis highlighted a significant association between Hispanic ethnicity and an accelerated timeline for both the diagnosis of alcohol-related cirrhosis following diagnosis of alcohol use disorder and mortality post-cirrhosis diagnosis. The former was evident only in bivariate analysis, but the latter association persisted in multivariate analysis. Gender did not demonstrate a significant correlation with the time to these outcomes, though multiracial identification emerged as a protective factor.

CONCLUSIONS

The study reveals critical health disparities in the progression and outcomes of cirrhosis, particularly between Hispanic and non-Hispanic patients. These findings underscore the urgent need for targeted healthcare interventions and policies that address these disparities. Future research should delve deeper into the multifaceted factors influencing these outcomes, facilitating the development of more nuanced and effective prevention and treatment strategies for alcohol use disorder and its severe complications.

Rates of adverse events and related risk factors following e-cigarette use

BACKGROUND

E-cigarettes have emerged as popular products, especially for younger populations. However, concerns regarding health effects exist and there is a notable gap in understanding the prevalence and nature of adverse events. This study aims to examine the rate of adverse events in individuals who use e-cigarettes in a large sample.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted with a sample of 4695 current and former e-cigarette users with a median age of 34 years. The survey collected data on e-cigarette use, adverse events experienced, product characteristics, related behaviors, sociodemographic factors and presence of medical comorbidities. Statistical analyses were conducted using Pearson's chi-squared tests and logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 78.9% of respondents reported experiencing an adverse event within 6 h of using a vaping device, with the most common events being headache, anxiety and coughing. Product characteristics and related behaviors significantly influenced the risk of adverse events. There were also sociodemographic disparities, with Hispanic respondents and those with at least college-level education reporting higher rates of adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study found a high rate of adverse events among e-cigarette users. We identified that certain e-cigarette product characteristics, behaviors and medical comorbidities significantly increased the risk of these events.

Digital technologies used in clinical trial recruitment and enrollment including application to trial diversity and inclusion: A systematic review

Background

Many clinical trials fail because of poor recruitment and enrollment which can directly impact the success of biomedical and clinical research outcomes. Options to leverage digital technology for improving clinical trial management are expansive, with potential benefits for improving access to clinical trials, encouraging trial diversity and inclusion, and potential cost-savings through enhanced efficiency.

Objectives

This systematic review has two key aims: (1) identify and describe the digital technologies applied in clinical trial recruitment and enrollment and (2) evaluate evidence of these technologies addressing the recruitment and enrollment of racial and ethnic minority groups.

Methods

We conducted a cross-disciplinary review of articles from PubMed, IEEE Xplore, and ACM Digital Library, published in English between January 2012 and July 2022, using MeSH terms and keywords for digital health, clinical trials, and recruitment and enrollment. Articles unrelated to technology in the recruitment/enrollment process or those discussing recruitment/enrollment without technology aspects were excluded.

Results

The review returned 614 results, with 21 articles (four reviews and 17 original research articles) deemed suitable for inclusion after screening and full-text review. To address the first objective, various digital technologies were identified and characterized, which included articles with more than one technology subcategory including (a) multimedia presentations (19%, n = 4); (b) mobile applications (14%, n = 3); (c) social media platforms (29%, n = 6); (d) machine learning and computer algorithms (19%, n = 4); (e) e-consenting (24%, n = 5); (f) blockchain (5%, n = 1); (g) web-based programs (24%, n = 5); and (h) virtual messaging (24%, n = 5). Additionally, subthemes, including specific diseases or conditions addressed, privacy and regulatory concerns, cost/benefit analyses, and ethnic and minority recruitment considerations, were identified and discussed. Limited research was found to support a particular technology's effectiveness in racial and ethnic minority recruitment and enrollment.

Conclusion

Results from this review illustrate that several types of technology are currently being explored and utilized in clinical trial recruitment and enrollment stages. However, evidence supporting the use of digital technologies is varied and requires further research and evaluation to identify the most valuable opportunities for encouraging diversity in clinical trial recruitment and enrollment practices.

Improving Cancer Patient Outcomes and Cost-Effectiveness: A Markov Simulation of Improved Early Detection, Side Effect Management, and Palliative Care

I employed a Markov model to simulate outcomes for a cohort of 1,000 hypothetical patients, comparing improvements in early detection, side effect management, and palliative care over a ten-year period. This model showed benefits in early detection and proactive health management, improving disease stability and reducing mortality rates. This protocol resulted in an 85.8% five-year survival rate, compared to 69.5% under standard protocol. Cost-effectiveness analysis showed significantly reduced costs and improved quality-adjusted life years. Our findings underscore the importance of comprehensive cancer care. These improvements not only reduce simulated healthcare costs but also significantly improve patient outcomes.

Detection and Characterization of Web-Based Pediatric COVID-19 Vaccine Discussions and Racial and Ethnic Minority Topics: Retrospective Analysis of Twitter Data

Background

Despite pediatric populations representing a smaller proportion of COVID-19 cases and having a less severe prognosis, those belonging to racial and ethnic minority groups are at an increased risk of developing more severe COVID-19-related outcomes. Vaccine coverage is crucial to pandemic mitigation efforts, yet since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccine hesitancy has increased and routine pediatric immunizations have decreased. Limited research exists on how vaccine hesitancy may contribute to low pediatric COVID-19 vaccine uptake among racial and ethnic minority populations.

Objective

This study aimed to characterize COVID-19 vaccine-related discussion and sentiment among Twitter users, particularly among racial and ethnic minority users.

Methods

We used the Twitter application programming interface to collect tweets and replies. Tweets were selected by filtering for keywords associated with COVID-19 vaccines and pediatric-related terms. From this corpus of tweets, we used the Biterm Topic Model to output topics and examined the top 200 retweeted tweets that were coded for pediatric COVID-19 vaccine relevance. Relevant tweets were analyzed using an inductive coding approach to characterize pediatric COVID-19 vaccine-related themes. Replies to relevant tweets were collected and coded. User metadata were assessed for self-reporting of race or ethnic group affiliation and verified account status.

Results

A total of 863,007 tweets were collected from October 2020 to October 2021. After outputting Biterm Topic Model topics and reviewing the 200 most retweeted tweets, 208,666 tweets and 3905 replies were identified as being pediatric COVID-19 vaccine related. The majority (150,262/208,666, 72.01%) of tweets expressed vaccine-related concerns. Among tweets discussing vaccine confidence, user replies expressing agreement were significantly outweighed by those expressing disagreement (1016/3106, 32.71% vs 2090/3106, 67.29%; P<.001). The main themes identified in the Twitter interactions were conversations regarding vaccine-related concerns including adverse side effects, concerns that the vaccine is experimental or needs more testing and should not be tested on pediatric populations, the perception that the vaccine is unnecessary given the perceived low risk of pediatric infection, and conversations associated with vaccine-related confidence (ie, the vaccine is protective). Among signal tweets and replies, we identified 418 users who self-identified as a racial minority individual and 40 who self-identified as an ethnic minority individual. Among the subcodes identified in this study, the vaccine being protective was the most discussed topic by racial and ethnic minority groups (305/444, 68.7%).

Conclusions

Vaccine-related concerns can have negative consequences on vaccine uptake and participation in vaccine-related clinical trials. This can impact the uptake and development of safe and effective vaccines, especially among racial and ethnic minority populations.

Tobacco Product Marketing Orders and Online Marketing and Sale of Unauthorized ENDS Products

This study characterizes online marketing of unauthorized electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS).

Tobacco/nicotine dependence as a risk factor for substance use disorders and related mental health conditions among cancer patients

BACKGROUND

Cancer patients often face multiple comorbidities and are at risk for various mental health conditions and substance use disorders. Tobacco/nicotine dependence (TND) is a known risk factor for poor health outcomes and has been associated with psychiatric disorders including substance use disorder. However, the specific relationship between TND and the risk of substance use disorder and mental health conditions among cancer patients remains underexplored. This study aimed to assess the association between TND and the risk of comorbid conditions among cancer patients.

METHODS

Data were obtained from a database of electronic health records for patients from the University of California health system. The odds for every condition among cancer patients with TND were calculated and compared with those for cancer patients without TND. ORs were adjusted for gender, ethnicity, and race.

RESULTS

Three thousand seven hundred and ninety-one cancer patients with TND had 252,619 total conditions, and 51,711 cancer patients without TND had 2,310,880 conditions. After adjusting for confounders, the condition for which TND most exacerbated risk was psychoactive substance-induced organic anxiety disorder (OR = 16.3, p < 0.001). This appeared consistent with the second, third, and fifth most-exacerbated conditions: stimulant use disorder (OR = 12.8, p < 0.001), cocaine induced mental disorder (OR = 11.0, p < 0.001), and cocaine use disorder (OR = 11.0, p < 0.001). Different conditions exacerbated by TND include acute alcoholic intoxication (OR = 11.4, p < 0.001), opioid use disorder (OR = 7.6, p < 0.001), schizoaffective disorder (OR = 7.4, p < 0.001), and cannabis use disorder (OR = 6.3, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings reveal a strong association between TND and an increased risk of substance use disorder and mental health conditions among cancer patients. Specifically, cancer patients with TND were at an elevated risk for psychoactive substance-induced organic anxiety disorder, stimulant use disorder, and cocaine-related disorders. Additionally, TND was associated with an increased risk of acute alcoholic intoxication, opioid use disorder, schizoaffective disorder, and cannabis use disorder. These findings underscore the need for comprehensive screening and interventions to address TND and comorbid conditions among cancer patients.

Assessing Characteristics and Compliance of Online Delta-8 Tetrahydrocannabinol Product Sellers

Introduction: The debate over the legal status of many cannabis- and hemp-derived products, including delta-8 tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), is in question. Although low concentrations of delta-8 THC are legal at the Federal level, many states have implemented their own regulations to both allow and restrict its use and sale. Of concern, sellers with unknown legal credentials have appeared online and are actively selling this product. Materials and Methods: We characterized the marketing, sale, and compliance of online delta-8 THC sellers using (1) data collected from the Twitter Application Programming Interface with delta-8 THC-related keywords; (2) unsupervised topic modeling using the Biterm Topic Model to identify clusters of tweets involved in marketing and selling; (3) inductive coding to identify marketing and selling characteristics; and (4) web forensics and simulated shopping to determine compliance with state restrictions for delta-8 THC sales. Results: In total, 110 unique hyperlinks associated with 7085 tweets that included marketing and selling activity for delta-8 THC were collected. From these links, we conducted simulated purchasing in January 2021 to identify compliant and noncompliant websites. Among the vendors, age verification was not found in over half of websites (59, 53.63%); 60 (54.55%) did not report a physical address; and 74 (65.45%) sold delta-8 products direct-to-consumer. Sixty-seven (90.54%) of detected vendors shipped delta-8 products to addresses in states that prohibit sales. Forty-three (64.18%) of Internet Protocol addresses were located within the United States; all others were international. Conclusion: Our analysis suggests that online storefronts are illegally selling and shipping cannabinoid derivatives to U.S. consumers. Further research is needed to understand downstream health and regulatory impacts from this unregulated access.

The Influence of News Consumption Habits and Dispositional Traits on Trust in Medical Scientists

Public trust in medical institutions is essential for ensuring compliance with medical directives. However, the politicization of public health issues and the polarized nature of major news outlets suggest that partisanship and news consumption habits can influence medical trust. This study employed a survey with 858 participants and used regression analysis to assesses how news consumption habits and information assessment traits (IATs) influence trust in medical scientists. IATs included were conscientiousness, openness, need for cognitive closure (NFCC), and cognitive reflective thinking (CRT). News sources were classified on the basis of factuality and political bias. Initially, readership of liberally biased news was positively associated with medical trust (p < 0.05). However, this association disappeared when controlling for the news source's factuality (p = 0.28), while CRT (p < 0.05) was positively associated with medical trust. When controlling for conservatively biased news sources, factuality of the news source (p < 0.05) and NFCC (p < 0.05) were positively associated with medical trust. While partisan media bias may influence medical trust, these results suggest that those who have higher abilities to assess information and who prefer more credible news sources have a greater trust in medical scientists.

Examining the association between California tobacco licensed retail density and public support or opposition to state anti-tobacco legislation

INTRODUCTION

The state of California has enacted progressive anti-tobacco policies, including Proposition 56 in 2016. In response, the alternative and emerging tobacco product (ATP) industry has increased its political activity. This study explores the association between the proportion of people voting against Proposition 56 and tobacco/ATP retail density.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis using data on licensed California tobacco retailers, which were then cross-referenced for categorization using Yelp. Proportion voting against Proposition 56 was obtained from the Secretary of State's website. A series of linear regression tests were performed between population-normalized retailer density and voting proportion at the county level before and after adjusting for covariates such as age, gender, race/ethnicity and median household income.

RESULTS

The total number of licensed tobacco retailers increased by 29.31% from 2015 to 2019. Association between proportion voting against Proposition 56 and retail density was significant during voting and during periods of policy implementation and post-implementation (2016-2018) for non-specialized tobacco retailers. For specialized/ATP retailers, significance was only detected during the post-implementation period (2018-2019) after normalization. Proportion voting against Proposition 56 was also a significant predictor of increase in total number of non-specific (β=0.48, p=0.008) as well as specialized tobacco and/or ATP retail storefronts (β=0.21, p=0.001) from 2016 to 2018.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides initial evidence of the association between tobacco retail density and voting patterns for anti-tobacco policy. Future research should examine the role of tobacco retail density on variation in local support for state tobacco control initiatives, including tailoring outreach to specific voting census blocks in communities with heavy retail presence.

Inductive Characterization of ENDS-Associated Adverse Events Among California Young Adults

Introduction

Previous studies have identified numerous adverse events experienced with the use of ENDS or E-cigarettes. However, much remains unknown about adverse event frequency, duration, and response experienced by users. The purpose of this study was to inductively characterize ENDS-attributed adverse events among young adults.

Methods

Sixteen focus groups were held with 114 young adults (aged 18-29 years) who have reported lifetime ENDS use in April 2021. Discussion topics included current and previous tobacco, nicotine, and cannabis use; specific symptoms and frequency and duration of and response to symptoms of ENDS-attributed adverse events; and the impact of other conditions such as COVID-19 on ENDS use. Data were inductively analyzed using a team-based approach.

Results

More than 40 ENDS-attributed adverse events were reported in focus groups among approximately three quarters of all study participants, with headache, coughing, lightheadedness, nausea, dry or sore throat, and dizziness the most common. In general, adverse events were transient, with most resolving in a few hours, although some tended to last for longer. The frequency of adverse events varied most between every time ENDS were used and when someone vaped excessively. Finally, behavioral responses varied by adverse events, with difficulty in breathing, chest pain, and lung discomfort more likely to result in quitting permanently.

Conclusions

Overall, the results of this study show that not only do adverse events vary greatly, but they also vary across multiple dimensions of user experience.

Longitudinal analysis of tobacco and vape retail density in California

INTRODUCTION

Tobacco retailer density may be associated with greater youth initiation and reduced success during quit attempts; however, the extent to which tobacco retailer density has changed overtime across multiple categories of retailers has not been reported.

METHODS

Data on licensed tobacco retailers within California from 2015–2019 were obtained from the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration. Store type was categorized by automated cross-referencing with Yelp. Geolocations were aggregated at county level for analyzing longitudinal trends in changes in tobacco retail density including demographic characteristics.

RESULTS

The number of active CA tobacco retailer licenses increased from 19825 in 2015 to 25635 in 2019. The highest percent increase in tobacco retailer licenses (9.1%) was observed in 2017. The number of specialized tobacco stores was highest in Los Angeles, San Diego, and Riverside counties. We observed a significant increase in the number of active licenses for non-specialized and specialized tobacco stores, both overall and after controlling for the size of populations within each region. Time was a statistically significant predictor for the number of active licenses for only non-specialized stores, after adjusting for covariates. Regional volume of retailers was positively associated with higher proportion of women, lower median household income, and higher proportion of Hispanic residents.

CONCLUSIONS

Monitoring the changes in tobacco retail density and associated sociodemographic factors over time can help to identify communities at higher risk for tobacco and nicotine product exposure and access, and its associated health disparities.

Predictors of Time to Coronavirus Disease 2019 Infection in the National Basketball Association: A Retrospective Case-Control Study

A case-control study was conducted between 1 December 2021 and 31 January 2022 to identify factors, which increase risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among athletes in the National Basketball Association (NBA). Behavioral factors and stadium attendance significantly decreased time to COVID-19 infection, but local COVID-19 rates were not associated in a multivariable model.

A systematic review of digital technology and innovation and its potential to address anti-corruption, transparency, and accountability in the pharmaceutical supply chain

INTRODUCTION

The urgent need to acquire medical supplies amidst the COVID-19 pandemic has led to bypassing of controls that govern the global pharmaceutical supply chain, increasing the risk of corruption. Hence, promoting anti-corruption, transparency, and accountability (ACTA) in supply chain and procurement has never been more important. The adoption of digital tools, if designed and implemented appropriately, can reduce the risks of corruption.

AREAS COVERED

Following PRISMA guidelines, we conducted an interdisciplinary systematic review of health/medicine, humanities/social sciences, engineering, and computer science literature, with the aims of identifying technologies used for pharmaceutical supply chain and procurement optimization and reviewing whether they address ACTA mechanisms to strengthen pharmaceutical governance. Our review identified four distinct categories of digital solutions: e-procurement and open contracting; track-and-trace technology; anti-counterfeiting technology; and blockchain technology.

EXPERT OPINION

Findings demonstrate an increase in research of technologies to improve pharmaceutical supply chain and procurement functions; however, most technologies are not being leveraged to directly address ACTA or global health outcomes. Some blockchain and RFID technologies incorporated ACTA mechanisms and mentioned specific policy/governance frameworks, but more purposeful linkage is needed. Findings point to the need for targeted policy development and governance to activate these innovative technologies to improve global health .

Content and trend analysis of user-generated nicotine sickness tweets: A retrospective infoveillance study

INTRODUCTION

Exposure to pro-tobacco and electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) social media content can lead to overconsumption, increasing the likelihood of nicotine poisoning. This study aims to examine trends and characteristics of nicotine sickness content on Twitter between 2018–2020.

METHODS

Tweets were collected retrospectively from the Twitter Academic Research Application Programming Interface (API) stream filtered for keywords: ‘nic sick’, ‘nicsick’, ‘vape sick’, ‘vapesick’ between 2018–2020. Collected tweets were manually annotated to identify suspected user-generated reports of nicotine sickness and related themes using an inductive coding approach. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test was used to assess stationarity in the monthly variation of the volume of tweets between 2018–2020.

RESULTS

A total of 5651 tweets contained nicotine sickness-related keywords and 18.29% (n=1034) tweets reported one or more suspected nicotine sickness symptoms of varied severity. These tweets were also grouped into five related categories including firsthand and secondhand reports of symptoms, intentional overconsumption of nicotine products, users expressing intention to quit after ‘nic sick’ symptoms, mention of nicotine product type/brand name that they consumed while ‘nic sick’, and users discussing symptoms associated with nicotine withdrawal following cessation attempts. The volume of tweets reporting suspected nicotine sickness appeared to increase throughout the study period, except between February and April 2020. Stationarity in the volume of ‘nicsick’ tweets between 2018–2020 was not statistically significant (ADF= -0.32, p=0.98) indicating a change in the volume of tweets.

CONCLUSIONS

Results point to the need for alternative forms of adverse event surveillance and reporting, to appropriately capture the growing health burden of vaping. Infoveillance approaches on social media platforms can help to assess the volume and characteristics of user-generated content discussing suspected nicotine poisoning, which may not be reported to poison control centers. Increasing volume of user-reported nicotine sickness and intentional overconsumption of nicotine in twitter posts represent a concerning trend associated with ENDS-related adverse events and poisoning.

Examining the association between international migration and colorectal cancer among multiple ancestry groups in the United States

Objectives: Prior research has not adequately examined the relationship between international migration and colorectal cancer (CRC) by cultural regions in the US. The purpose of this exploratory study was to determine how annual CRC incidence varied with US annual international migrant inflow in ten different regions, corresponding to dominant ancestry group.Design: County-level international migrant inflow and dominant ancestry type were obtained from the American Community Survey, and age-adjusted CRC incidence was obtained from the National Cancer Institute. A linear regression model was tested for each ancestry region to assess the relationship between migrant inflow and CRC incidence.Results: Higher international migrant inflow was associated with lower CRC incidence among counties where the dominant ancestry group was African American (p = 0.0207), British (p = 0.0212), Hispanic (p = 0.0001), and Native American (p = 0.0056).Conclusions: These findings suggest that US residents in certain ancestry groups are at higher risk for CRC.

Association of tobacco retailer count with smoking population versus vaping population in California (2019)

BACKGROUND

Access to tobacco products, including vape products, from local brick-and-mortar stores influences the exposure, uptake, and use of these products in local communities.

METHODS

Licensed tobacco retailers in California were classified as specialized tobacco/vape stores or non-specialized stores by obtaining categories published on Yelp. California smoking and vaping prevalence data were obtained from the 500 cities project and ESRI community analyst tool respectively. A series of simple linear regression tests were performed, at the zip code level, between the retailer count in each store category and smoking/vaping population. The Getis-Ord Gi* and Anselin Local Moran's I statistics were used for characterization of tobacco retail density hotspots and cold spots.

RESULTS

The association between CA smoking/vaping population and number of tobacco retailers was statistically significant for all store categories. Variability in smoking population was best explained by variability in non-specialized storefronts(R2=0.84). Spatial variability in tobacco-only storefronts explained the least proportion of variability in the overall smoking population. Similar results were obtained specific to vaping population, although the proportion of population explained by variability in the number of non-specialized storefronts was comparatively lower(R2=0.80).

CONCLUSIONS

Localities with greater numbers of non-specialized tobacco retailers had higher rates of smoking/vaping populations, and this association was much stronger for localities with greater numbers of specialized retailers. Non-specialized storefronts may represent convenient access points for nicotine products, while specialized storefronts may represent critical access points for initiation. Hence, regulations that address the entirety of the tobacco/vaping retail environment by limiting widespread access from non-specialized stores and reducing appeal generated by specialized retailers should be incorporated in future tobacco regulatory science and policymaking.

Campus Smoking Policies and Smoking-Related Twitter Posts Originating From California Public Universities: Retrospective Study

Background

The number of colleges and universities with smoke- or tobacco-free campus policies has been increasing. The effects of campus smoking policies on overall sentiment, particularly among young adult populations, are more difficult to assess owing to the changing tobacco and e-cigarette product landscape and differential attitudes toward policy implementation and enforcement.

Objective

The goal of the study was to retrospectively assess the campus climate toward tobacco use by comparing tweets from California universities with and those without smoke- or tobacco-free campus policies.

Methods

Geolocated Twitter posts from 2015 were collected using the Twitter public application programming interface in combination with cloud computing services on Amazon Web Services. Posts were filtered for tobacco products and behavior-related keywords. A total of 42,877,339 posts were collected from 2015, with 2837 originating from a University of California or California State University system campus, and 758 of these manually verified as being about smoking. Chi-square tests were conducted to determine if there were significant differences in tweet user sentiments between campuses that were smoke- or tobacco-free (all University of California campuses and California State University, Fullerton) compared to those that were not. A separate content analysis of tweets included in chi-square tests was conducted to identify major themes by campus smoking policy status.

Results

The percentage of positive sentiment tweets toward tobacco use was higher on campuses without a smoke- or tobacco-free campus policy than on campuses with a smoke- or tobacco-free campus policy (76.7% vs 66.4%, P=.03). Higher positive sentiment on campuses without a smoke- or tobacco-free campus policy may have been driven by general comments about one’s own smoking behavior and comments about smoking as a general behavior. Positive sentiment tweets originating from campuses without a smoke- or tobacco-free policy had greater variation in tweet type, which may have also contributed to differences in sentiment among universities.

Conclusions

Our study introduces preliminary data suggesting that campus smoke- and tobacco-free policies are associated with a reduction in positive sentiment toward smoking. However, continued expressions and intentions to smoke and reports of one’s own smoking among Twitter users suggest a need for more research to better understand the dynamics between implementation of smoke- and tobacco-free policies and resulting tobacco behavioral sentiment.

International Socioeconomic Predictors of Colon and Rectal Cancer Mortality: Is Colorectal Cancer a First World Problem?

PURPOSE

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a leading cause of international morbidity and is the second highest cause of cancer-related mortality in the world. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between international health care spending on CRC mortality over time.

METHODS

This is a retrospective study using a publicly available data from the WHO Global Health Observatory database. General estimating equations were used to analyze the relationship between total health care expenditure per capita (THEpc) and CRC mortality at the country level. The primary predictors of interest were quartiles of THEpc. Other exposure variables included gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc), smoking (% of adult population smoking), physician density (per 10,000), and time.

RESULTS

Mortality decreased significantly from 2000 to 2016 (coefficient [95% CI], −2.2 [−3.3 to −1.1]; P < .001). THEpc, GDPpc, time, and percentage of adult population smoking were significant predictors of CRC mortality. Patients in the top two quartiles of THEpc had 3% higher rates of CRC mortality compared with countries in Q1 THEpc (Q3: 3.4 [1.9-4.8], P < .001; Q4: 3.2 [1.4-5.0], P = .001). Similar trends were seen in GDPpc (Q4: 3.2 [1.4-5.0], P = .001; Q3: 3.4 [1.9-4.8], P < .001; Q2: 1.7 [0.7-2.6], P < .001; Q1: reference).

CONCLUSION

Overall, mortality decreased significantly over the study period. Countries with higher health expenditures and higher gross domestic products experienced higher rates of CRC mortality. Further research will be necessary to determine the cause for this, but we postulate that it may be a result of more robust diagnostic and follow-up methods in countries with more resources.

Colorectal Cancer mortality decreased between 2000-2016 but only among developed nations.

Could age increase the strength of inverse association between ultraviolet B exposure and colorectal cancer?

BACKGROUND

Vitamin D has been identified as a potential protective factor in the development of colorectal cancer (CRC). We expect to see a stronger association of ultraviolet B (UVB) exposure and CRC crude rates with increasing age since chronic vitamin D deficiency leads to sustained molecular changes that increase cancer risk. The DINOMIT (disjunction, initiation, natural selection, overgrowth, metastasis, involution, and transition) model postulates various stages of cancer development due to vitamin D deficiency and the associated latency period. The purpose of this study is to examine this age-dependent inverse relationship globally.

METHODS

In this ecological study, a series of linear and polynomial regression tests were performed between country-specific UVB estimates adjusted for cloud cover and crude incidence rates of CRC for different age groups. Multiple linear regression was used to investigate the association between crude incidence rates of colorectal cancer and UVB estimate adjusting for urbanization, skin pigmentation, smoking, animal consumption, per capita GDP, and life expectancy. Statistical analysis was followed by geospatial visualization by producing choropleth maps.

RESULTS

The inverse relationship between UVB exposure and CRC crude rates was stronger in older age groups at the country level. Quadratic curve fitting was preferred, and these models were statistically significant for all age groups. The inverse association between crude incidence rates of CRC and UVB exposure was statistically significant for age groups above 45 years, after controlling for covariates.

CONCLUSION

The age-dependent inverse association between UVB exposure and incidence of colorectal cancer exhibits a greater effect size among older age groups in global analyses. Studying the effect of chronic vitamin D deficiency on colorectal cancer etiology will help in understanding the necessity for population-wide screening programs for vitamin D deficiency, especially in regions with inadequate UVB exposure. Further studies are required to assess the need for adequate public health programs such as selective supplementation and food fortification.

Physicians payment in the United States between 2014 and 2018: An analysis of the CMS Open Payments database

The Open Payments database reports payments made to physicians by industry. Given the potential for financial conflicts of interest relating to patient outcomes, further scrutiny of these data is valuable. Therefore, the objective of this study was to analyze physician-industry relationships by specialty type, payment type, geospatial trend, and longitudinal trend between 2014-2018. We conducted an observational, retrospective data analysis of payments from the Open Payments database for licensed United States physicians listed in the National Plan & Provider Enumeration System (NPPES). Datasets from 2013-2018 were joined using the Python programming language. Aggregation and sub-setting by characteristics of interest was done in R to calculate means and frequencies of reported general physician payments from industry across different specialties, locations, timeframes, and payment types. Normalization was applied for numbers of physicians or payments. Geospatial statistical hot spot analysis was conducted in ArcGIS. 51.73 million payment records were analyzed. In total, 50,047,930 payments were issued to 771,113 allopathic or osteopathic physicians, representing $8,702,631,264 transferred from industry to physicians over the five-year period between 2014 and 2018. The mean payment amount was $179, with a standard deviation of $12,685. Variability in physicians' financial relationships with industry were apparent across specialties, regions, time, and payment type. A limited match rate between records in the NPPES and Open Payments databases may have resulted in selection bias of trends related to physician characteristics. Further research is necessary, particularly in the context of changing industry payment trends and public perceptions of the appropriateness of these relationships.

A geospatial analysis of age disparities in resolute localities of tobacco and vaping-specific storefronts in California

INTRODUCTION

Concomitant with the popularization of vaping, vape shops have dramatically proliferated over the past years. This study assesses whether vape storefronts in California are significantly associated with density of different age groups, and whether this differs between tobacco storefronts or non-specific tobacco retailers.

METHODS

Addresses for licensed tobacco retailers were obtained from the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration. Business names and addresses were used to obtain store categories cross-referenced from Yelp. Using a cross-sectional ecological design, stores categorized as ‘Vape Shop’ or ‘Tobacco Shop’ were geolocated and compared with age-related variables from the American Community Survey. Regression was conducted in R to determine relationships between age group concentration, in ventiles, and proportion of tracts with tobacco-specific or vape-specific stores. Geospatial visualization was conducted using ArcGIS.

RESULTS

We found 848 vape shops, 820 tobacco shops, 419 categorized as both, and 20320 retailers with neither category. Overall, 1800 tobacco and/or vape shops were categorized in 1557 of California’s 23194 census tracts. A positive linear association was found between ventiles of two age categories, 20–24 and 25–34 years, and proportion of tracts with vape-specific or tobacco-specific shops separately.

CONCLUSIONS

Positive associations were found for ages 20–34 years but not for other ages, suggesting vape shops are strategically located in areas populated by young adults. Location-based targeting increases access, thereby increasing proportion of tobacco users, and could be a critical factor in e-cigarette uptake and use. Further study to identify additional age-related demographic characteristics among clientele of tobacco storefronts is warranted.

A longitudinal and geospatial analysis of COVID-19 tweets during the early outbreak period in the United States

INTRODUCTION

Early reports of COVID-19 cases and deaths may not accurately convey community-level concern about the pandemic during early stages, particularly in the United States where testing capacity was initially limited. Social media interaction may elucidate public reaction and communication dynamics about COVID-19 in this critical period, during which communities may have formulated initial conceptions about the perceived severity of the pandemic.

METHODS

Tweets were collected from the Twitter public API stream filtered for keywords related to COVID-19. Using a pre-existing training set, a support vector machine (SVM) classifier was used to obtain a larger set of geocoded tweets with characteristics of user self-reporting COVID-19 symptoms, concerns, and experiences. We then assessed the longitudinal relationship between identified tweets and the number of officially reported COVID-19 cases using linear and exponential regression at the U.S. county level. Changes in tweets that included geospatial clustering were also assessed for the top five most populous U.S. cities.

RESULTS

From an initial dataset of 60 million tweets, we analyzed 459,937 tweets that contained COVID-19-related keywords that were also geolocated to U.S. counties. We observed an increasing number of tweets throughout the study period, although there was variation between city centers and residential areas. Tweets identified as COVID-19 symptoms or concerns appeared to be more predictive of active COVID-19 cases as temporal distance increased.

CONCLUSION

Results from this study suggest that social media communication dynamics during the early stages of a global pandemic may exhibit a number of geospatial-specific variations among different communities and that targeted pandemic communication is warranted. User engagement on COVID-19 topics may also be predictive of future confirmed case counts, though further studies to validate these findings are needed.

Characterizing Self-Reported Tobacco, Vaping, and Marijuana-Related Tweets Geolocated for California College Campuses

Introduction: College-aged youth are active on social media yet smoking-related social media engagement in these populations has not been thoroughly investigated. We sought to conduct an exploratory infoveillance study focused on geolocated data to characterize smoking-related tweets originating from California 4-year colleges on Twitter. Methods: Tweets from 2015 to 2019 with geospatial coordinates in CA college campuses containing smoking-related keywords were collected from the Twitter API stream and manually annotated for discussions about smoking product type, sentiment, and behavior. Results: Out of all tweets detected with smoking-related behavior, 46.7% related to tobacco use, 50.0% to marijuana, and 7.3% to vaping. Of these tweets, 46.1% reported first-person use or second-hand observation of smoking behavior. Out of 962 tweets with user sentiment, the majority (67.6%) were positive, ranging from 55.0% for California State University, Long Beach to 95.8% for California State University, Los Angeles. Discussion: We detected reporting of first- and second-hand smoking behavior on CA college campuses representing possible violation of campus smoking bans. The majority of tweets expressed positive sentiment about smoking behaviors, though there was appreciable variability between college campuses. This suggests that anti-smoking outreach should be tailored to the unique student populations of these college communities. Conclusion: Among tweets about smoking from California colleges, high levels of positive sentiment suggest that the campus climate may be less receptive to anti-smoking messages or adherence to campus smoking bans. Further research should investigate the degree to which this varies by campuses over time and following implementation of bans including validating using other sources of data.

A bilingual systematic review of South Korean medical tourism: a need to rethink policy and priorities for public health?

BACKGROUND

In 2016, the "Act on Support for Overseas Expansion of Healthcare System and Attraction of International Patients" was enacted by the South Korean government in an attempt to accelerate growth of its medical tourism industry. However, only a few years after its implementation, the benefits are not well understood, nor have the positive or negative impacts of expanding Korea's medical tourism sector been properly evaluated.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to systematically review and summarize existing literature describing South Korea's medical tourism policy and legislative history, while also assessing the impact of this domestic policy approach on the country's public health systems.

METHODS

A bilingual systematic literature review was conducted per PRISMA guidelines for all South Korean medical tourism legislative and policy literature using MeSH terms and other related keywords in two academic databases, PubMed and JSTOR. Published studies were included if they directly addressed South Korean medical tourism policy. To supplement results from the peer-review, the grey literature was also searched using Google search engine for relevant policy documents, information from government websites, and national statistics on medical tourism-related data.

RESULTS

This review included 14 peer-reviewed journal articles and 9 websites. The majority of literature focused on the legislative history of South Korea's pro-medical tourism policy, economic considerations associated with industry growth, and the specific experiences of medical tourists. There was a lack of studies, analytical or commentary-based, conducting in-depth analysis of the healthcare impact of these policies or comparing benefits and costs compared to other medical tourism destinations. Proponents of medical tourism continue to advocate the government for increased deregulation and investment in the sector.

CONCLUSION

This systematic review suggests that policy decisions may prioritize economic growth offered by medical tourism over negative effects on the healthcare workforce, access and equity, and its potential to undermine Universal Health Coverage. South Korea continues to examine ways to further amend the Act and grow this sector, but these actions should be taken with caution by critically examining how other countries have adapted their policymaking based on the real-world costs associated with medical tourism.

Online marketing practices of regenerative medicine clinics in US-Mexico border region: a web surveillance study

Introduction

The potential of regenerative medicine to improve human health has led to the rapid expansion of stem cell clinics throughout the world with varying levels of regulation and oversight. This has led to a market ripe for stem cell tourism, with Tijuana, Mexico, as a major destination. In this study, we characterize the online marketing, intervention details, pricing of services, and assess potential safety risks through web surveillance of regenerative medicine clinics marketing services in Tijuana.

Methods

We conducted structured online search queries from March to April 2019 using 296 search terms in English and Spanish on two search engines (Google and Bing) to identify websites engaged in direct-to-consumer advertising of regenerative medicine services. We performed content analysis to characterize three categories of interest: online presence, tokens of scientific legitimacy, and intervention details.

Results

Our structured online searches resulted in 110 unique websites located in Tijuana corresponding to 76 confirmed locations. These clinics’ online presence consisted of direct-to-consumer advertising mainly through a dedicated website (94.5%) or Facebook page (65.5%). The vast majority of these websites (99.1%) did not mention any affiliation to an academic institutions or other overt tokens of scientific legitimacy. Most clinics claimed autologous tissue was the source of treatments (67.3%) and generally did not specify route of administration. Additionally, of the Tijuana clinics identified, 13 claimed licensing, though only 1 matched with available licensing information.

Conclusions

Regenerative medicine clinics in Tijuana have a significant online presence using direct-to-consumer advertising to attract stem-cell tourism clientele in a bustling border region between Mexico and the USA. This study adds to existing literature evidencing the unregulated nature of online stem cell offerings and provides further evidence of the need for regulatory harmonization, particularly to address stem cell services being offered online across borders.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13287-021-02254-4.

Characterizing and assessing compliance of online vendors to the state of Massachusetts ENDS product sales ban

INTRODUCTION

Recent reports of lung injury associated with Electronic Nicotine Delivery System (ENDS) products precipitated by increasing vaping prevalence and interest in flavors among adolescents has led to policies that restrict the sale, distribution, and accessibility of ENDS products. This study assessed compliance of online ENDS vendors to the Massachusetts temporary sales ban.

METHODS

The study involved structured web surveillance for online ENDS vendors using keyword searches on Google search engine (October to November 2019.) Once vendors were identified, we conducted simulated online purchases, defined as placing an order for an ENDS product by putting it in the website shopping cart without finalizing payment. Simulated purchases and content analysis of websites was conducted to determine compliance characteristics. Fisher’s exact test was used to identify associations between compliance and website characteristics such as location and age verification requirements.

RESULTS

Simulated online purchases from 50 identified ENDS vendors yielded 72% (n=36) stores that were non-compliant and allowed placement of ENDS product orders, without restrictions, to a Massachusetts address. The remaining 14 websites had processes in place to prevent orders from buyers located in Massachusetts. Other characteristics of interest, including use of age verification, location data, and web registrar/registrant data were collected and reported.

CONCLUSIONS

The September 2019 Massachusetts executive order was a comprehensive ban on selling ENDS products both online and offline. However, our study found that close to three-fourths of the vendors appeared to be non-compliant, indicating that implementation and enforcement are ongoing challenges for future tobacco control efforts on the internet. Policymaking needs to be specifically tailored to address the unique challenges of online environments, particularly in the context of identifying non-compliant sites, ensuring age verification, and addressing non-US sellers.

Characterising communities impacted by the 2015 Indiana HIV outbreak: A big data analysis of social media messages associated with HIV and substance abuse

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS

Infoveillance approaches (i.e. surveillance methods using online content) that leverage big data can provide new insights about infectious disease outbreaks and substance use disorder topics. We assessed social media messages about HIV, opioid use and injection drug use in order to understand how unstructured data can prepare public health practitioners for response to future outbreaks.

DESIGN AND METHODS

We conducted an retrospective analysis of Twitter messages during the 2015 HIV Indiana outbreak using machine learning, statistical and geospatial analysis to examine the transition between opioid prescription drug abuse to heroin injection use and finally HIV transmission risk, and to test possible associations with disease burden and demographic variables in Indiana and Marion County. Tweets from October 2014 to June 2015 were compared to disease burden at the county level for Indiana, and classification of census blocks by presence of relevant messages was done at the census block level for Marion County. Marion County was used as it exhibited the highest total count of Tweets.

RESULTS

257 messages about substance abuse and HIV were significantly related to HIV rates (P < 0.001) and opioid-related hospitalisations (P = 0.037). Using 157 characteristics from the American Community Survey, a linear classifier was computed with an appreciable correlation (r = 0.49) to risk-related social media messages from Marion County.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Communities appear to communicate online in response to disease burden. Classification produced an accurate equation to model census block risk based on census data, allowing for high-dimensional estimation of risk for blocks with sparse populations.

Sub-national longitudinal and geospatial analysis of COVID-19 tweets

Objectives

According to current reporting, the number of active coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections is not evenly distributed, both spatially and temporally. Reported COVID-19 infections may not have properly conveyed the full extent of attention to the pandemic. Furthermore, infection metrics are unlikely to illustrate the full scope of negative consequences of the pandemic and its associated risk to communities.

Methods

In an effort to better understand the impacts of COVID-19, we concurrently assessed the geospatial and longitudinal distributions of Twitter messages about COVID-19 which were posted between March 3rd and April 13th and compared these results with the number of confirmed cases reported for sub-national levels of the United States. Geospatial hot spot analysis was also conducted to detect geographic areas that might be at elevated risk of spread based on both volume of tweets and number of reported cases.

Results

Statistically significant aberrations of high numbers of tweets were detected in approximately one-third of US states, most of which had relatively high proportions of rural inhabitants. Geospatial trends toward becoming hotspots for tweets related to COVID-19 were observed for specific rural states in the United States.

Discussion

Population-adjusted results indicate that rural areas in the U.S. may not have engaged with the COVID-19 topic until later stages of an outbreak. Future studies should explore how this dynamic can inform future outbreak communication and health promotion.

Shift in racial communities impacted by COVID-19 in California

INTRODUCTION

Since the first case of COVID-19 was recorded in California, the geospatial distribution of disease cases has fluctuated over time. Given documented racial disparities in other parts of the country, longitudinal convergence of COVID-19 rates around race groups warrants assessment.

METHODS

County-level cases for COVID-19 were collected from the Johns Hopkins University, and racial distributions were collected from the American Community Survey. Pearson's correlation coefficients were computed for each day since COVID-19 was first reported in California, and the longitudinal distribution of each race-specific set of correlation coefficients was assessed for stationarity, linear trend and exponential trend.

RESULTS

Earlier in the outbreak, the distribution of COVID-19 was most highly correlated with Asian American communities; after approximately 100 days, the distribution of COVID-19 most closely resembled that of African American communities. For every day in this dataset, the county-level distribution of COVID-19 was negatively correlated with the distribution of White American communities in California.

DISCUSSION

The geospatial distribution of COVID-19 in California has increasingly resembled that of African American communities within the state. Further study should be conducted to characterise potentially disproportionate impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic across race groups.

Identification and characterization of tweets related to the 2015 Indiana HIV outbreak: A retrospective infoveillance study

INTRODUCTION

From late 2014 through 2015, Scott County, Indiana faced an HIV outbreak triggered by opioid abuse and transition to injection drug use. Investigating the origins, risk factors, and responses related to this outbreak is critical to inform future surveillance, interventions, and policymaking. In response, this retrospective infoveillance study identifies and characterizes user-generated messages related to opioid abuse, heroin injection drug use, and HIV status using natural language processing (NLP) among Twitter users in Indiana during the period of this HIV outbreak.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Our study consisted of two phases: data collection and processing, and data analysis. We collected Indiana geolocated tweets from the public Twitter API using Amazon Web Services EC2 instances filtered for geocoded messages in the immediate pre and post period of the outbreak. In the data analysis phase we applied an unsupervised machine learning approach using NLP called the Biterm Topic Model (BTM) to identify tweets related to opioid, heroin/injection, and HIV behavior and then examined these messages for HIV risk-related topics that could be associated with the outbreak.

RESULTS

More than 10 million geocoded tweets occurring in Indiana during the immediate pre and post period of the outbreak were collected for analysis. Using BTM, we identified 1350 tweets thought to be relevant to the outbreak and then confirmed 358 tweets using human annotation. The most prevalent themes identified were tweets related to self-reported abuse of illicit and prescription drugs, opioid use disorder, self-reported HIV status, and public sentiment regarding the outbreak. Geospatial analysis found that these messages clustered in population dense areas outside of the outbreak, including Indianapolis and neighboring Clark County.

DISCUSSION

This infoveillance study characterized the social media conversations of communities in Indiana in the pre and post period of the 2015 HIV outbreak. Behavioral themes detected reflect discussion about risk factors related to HIV transmission stemming from opioid and heroin abuse for priority populations, and also help identify community attitudes that could have motivated or detracted the use of HIV prevention methods, along with helping identify factors that can impede access to prevention services.

CONCLUSIONS

Infoveillance approaches, such as the analysis conducted in this study, represent a possibly strategy to detect "signal" of the emergence of risk factors associated with an outbreak though may be limited in their scope and generalizability. Our results, in conjunction with other forms of public health surveillance, can leverage the growing ubiquity of social media platforms to better detect opioid-related HIV risk knowledge, attitudes and behavior, as well as inform future prevention efforts.

An interdisciplinary review of digital technologies to facilitate anti-corruption, transparency and accountability in medicines procurement

Background: Pharmaceutical corruption is a serious challenge in global health. Digital technologies that can detect and prevent fraud and corruption are particularly important to address barriers to access to medicines, such as medicines availability and affordability, stockouts, shortages, diversion, and infiltration of substandard and falsified medicines.Objectives: To better understand how digital technologies are used to combat corruption, increase transparency, and detect fraud in pharmaceutical procurement systems to improve population health outcomes.Methods: We conducted a multidisciplinary review of the health/medicine, engineering, and computer science literature. Our search queries included keywords associated with medicines procurement and digital technology in combination with terms associated with transparency and anti-corruption initiatives. Our definition of 'digital technology' focused on Internet-based communications, including online portals and management systems, supply chain tools, and electronic databases.Results: We extracted 37 articles for in-depth review based on our inclusion criteria focused on the utilization of digital technology to improve medicines procurement. The vast majority of articles focused on electronic data transfer and/or e-procurement systems with fewer articles discussing emerging technologies such as machine learning and blockchain distributed ledger solutions. In the context of e-procurement, slow adoption, justifying cost-savings, and need for technical standards setting were identified as key challenges for current and future utilization.Conclusions: Though there is a significant promise for digital technologies, particularly e-procurement, overall adoption of solutions that can enhance transparency, accountability and concomitantly combat corruption, is still underdeveloped. Future efforts should focus on tying cost-saving measurements with anti-corruption indicators, prioritizing centralization of e-procurement systems, establishing regulatory harmonization with standards setting, and incorporating additional anti-corruption technologies into procurement processes for improving access to medicines and to reach the overall goal of Universal Health Coverage.

Country and regional variations in purchase prices for essential cancer medications

Background

Accessibility to essential cancer medications in low- and middle-income countries is threatened by insufficient availability and affordability. The objective of this study is to characterize variation in transactional prices for essential cancer medications across geographies, medication type, and time.

Methods

Drug purchase prices for 19 national and international buyers (representing 29 total countries) between 2010 and 2014 were obtained from Management Sciences for Health. Median values for drug pricing were computed, to address outliers in the data. For comparing purchase prices across geographic units, medications, and over time; Mann-Whitney U tests were used to compare two groups, Kruskal Wallis H tests were used to compare more than two groups, and linear regression was used to compare across continuous independent variables.

Results

During the five-year data period examined, the median price paid for a package of essential cancer medication was $12.63. No significant differences in prices were found based on country-level wealth, country-level disease burden, drug formulation, or year when medication was purchased. Statistical tests found significant differences in prices paid across countries, regions, individual medications, and medication categories. Specifically, countries in the Africa region appeared to pay more for a package of essential cancer medication than countries in the Latin America region, and cancer medications tended to be more expensive than anti-infective medications and cardiovascular medications.

Conclusions

Though preliminary, our study found evidence of variation in prices paid by health systems to acquire essential cancer medications. Primarily, variations in pricing based on geographic location and cancer medication type (including when comparing to essential medicines that treat cardiovascular and infectious diseases) indicate that these factors may impact availability, affordability and access to essential cancer drugs. These factors should be taken into consideration when countries assess formulary decisions, negotiate drug procurement terms, and when formulating health and cancer policy.

Cloud cover-adjusted ultraviolet B irradiance and pancreatic cancer incidence in 172 countries

BACKGROUND

Controversy exists regarding whether vitamin D deficiency could influence the etiology of pancreatic cancer. Several cohort studies have found that high serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations are associated with low risk of pancreatic cancer, while others have not.

HYPOTHESIS

Low ultraviolet B irradiance is associated with high incidence of pancreatic cancer.

METHODS

Age-standardized pancreatic cancer incidence rates were obtained from GLOBOCAN in 2008. The association between cloud-adjusted UVB irradiance and age-standardized incidence rates of pancreatic cancer was analyzed using regression.

RESULTS

Overall, the lower the cloud-adjusted UVB irradiance, the higher the incidence rate of pancreatic cancer. Residents of countries with low UVB irradiance had approximately 6 times the incidence rates as those in countries with high UVB irradiance (p<0.0001 for males and p<0.0001 for females). This association persisted after adjustment for traditional risk factors of pancreatic cancer (p=0.0182 for males and p=0.0029 for females).

CONCLUSIONS

There was an inverse association of cloud-adjusted UVB irradiance with incidence of pancreatic cancer that persisted after adjustment. This result is consistent with an inverse association of overall vitamin D deficiency in countries with lower UVB irradiance with risk of pancreatic cancer. Further research on the role of 25(OH)D in reduction of pancreatic cancer in individuals would be desirable to expand the limited avenues available for prevention of this highly fatal disease. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled '17th Vitamin D Workshop'.

Low Cloud Cover-Adjusted Ultraviolet B Irradiance Is Associated with High Incidence Rates of Leukemia: Study of 172 Countries

There are 52,380 cases of leukemia and 24,090 deaths from it in the US annually. Its causes are unknown and no preventive strategies have been implemented. We hypothesized that leukemia is due mainly to vitamin D deficiency, which is due mainly to low solar ultraviolet B (UVB) irradiance. To test this hypothesis, we estimated age-standardized cloud-cover-adjusted winter UVB irradiance using cloud cover data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, latitudes of population centroids, and standard astronomical calculations. Incidence rates for 172 countries, available from the International Agency for Cancer Research, were plotted according to cloud-adjusted UVB irradiance. We used multiple regression to account for national differences in elevation and average life expectancy. Leukemia incidence rates were inversely associated with cloud-adjusted UVB irradiance in males (p ≤ 0.01) and females (p ≤ 0.01) in both hemispheres. There were few departures from the trend line, which was parabolic when plotted with the equator at the center of the display, northern hemisphere countries on the right side and southern hemisphere countries on the left. The bivariate association displayed by the polynomial trend line indicated that populations at higher latitudes had at least two times the risk of leukemia compared to equatorial populations. The association persisted in males (p ≤ 0.05) and females (p ≤ 0.01) after controlling for elevation and life expectancy. Incidence rates of leukemia were inversely associated with solar UVB irradiance. It is plausible that the association is due to vitamin D deficiency. This would be consistent with laboratory studies and a previous epidemiological study. Consideration should be given to prudent use of vitamin D for prevention of leukemia.

Exploring the e-cigarette e-commerce marketplace: Identifying Internet e-cigarette marketing characteristics and regulatory gaps

BACKGROUND

The electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) market is maturing into a billion-dollar industry. Expansion includes new channels of access not sufficiently assessed, including Internet sales of e-cigarettes. This study identifies unique e-cigarette Internet vendor characteristics, including geographic location, promotional strategies, use of social networking, presence/absence of age verification, and consumer warning representation.

METHODS

We performed structured Internet search engine queries and used inclusion/exclusion criteria to identify e-cigarette vendors. We then conducted content analysis of characteristics of interest.

RESULTS

Our examination yielded 57 e-cigarette Internet vendors including 54.4% (n=31) that sold exclusively online. The vast majority of websites (96.5%, n=55) were located in the U.S. Vendors used a variety of sales promotion strategies to market e-cigarettes including 70.2% (n=40) that used more than one social network service (SNS) and 42.1% (n=24) that used more than one promotional sales strategies. Most vendors (68.4%, n=39) displayed one or more health warnings on their website, but often displayed them in smaller font or in their terms and conditions. Additionally, 35.1% (n=20) of vendors did not have any detectable age verification process.

CONCLUSIONS

E-cigarette Internet vendors are actively engaged in various promotional activities to increase the appeal and presence of their products online. In the absence of FDA regulations specific to the Internet, the e-cigarette e-commerce marketplace is likely to grow. This digital environment poses unique challenges requiring targeted policy-making including robust online age verification, monitoring of SNS marketing, and greater scrutiny of certain forms of marketing promotional practices.

The rise of digital direct-to-consumer advertising?: Comparison of direct-to-consumer advertising expenditure trends from publicly available data sources and global policy implications

Background

Pharmaceutical marketing is undergoing a major shift in the United States, in part due to new transparency regulations under the healthcare reform act. Changes in pharmaceutical marketing practices include a possible shift from more traditional forms of direct-to-consumer advertising towards emerging use of Internet-based DTCA (“eDTCA”) given the growing importance of digital health or “eHealth.” Though legally allowed only in the U.S. and New Zealand, eDTCA poses novel regulatory challenges, as it can cross geopolitical boundaries and impact health systems and populations outside of these countries.

Methods

We wished to assess whether changes in DTCA and eDTCA expenditure trends was occurring using publicly available pharmaceutical marketing data. DTCA data was analyzed to compare trends in aggregate marketing expenditures and to assess if there were statistically significant differences in trends and magnitudes for data sources and DTCA sub-categories (including eDTCA). This was accomplished using regression lines of DTCA trend data and conducting pairwise comparisons of regression coefficients using t-tests. Means testing was utilized for comparing magnitude of DTCA expenditure.

Results

Data from multiple data sources indicate that aggregate DTCA expenditures have slightly declined during the period from 2005–2009 and are consistent with results from other studies. For DTCA sub-categories, television remained the most utilized form of DTCA, though experienced trends of declining expenditures (−13.2 %) similar to other traditional media platforms such as radio (−30.7 %) and outdoor ads (−12.1 %). The only DTCA sub-category that experienced substantial increased expenditures was eDTCA (+109.0 %) and it was the only medium that had statistically significant differences in its marketing expenditure trends compared to other DTCA sub-categories.

Conclusions

Our study indicates that traditional DTCA marketing may be on the decline. Conversely, the only DTCA sub-category that experienced significant increases was eDTCA. However, to fully understand this possible shift to “digital” DTCA, improvements in publicly available DTCA data sources are necessary to confirm changing trends and validate existing data. Hence, utilizing the newly implemented U.S. physician-payment expenditure transparency requirements, we advocate for the mandatory disclosure of DTCA/eDTCA in order to inform future domestic and international health policy efforts regarding appropriate regulation of pharmaceutical promotion.

The economics of counterfeit Avastin: a geospatial and statistical analysis of demographic correlates to FDA warning letters

PURPOSE

In 2012, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) sent warning notices to clinics and medical practitioners that may have purchased or administered counterfeited versions of the angiogenesis cancer drug Avastin Genentech, South San Francisco, California, USA. The purpose of this study was to explore potential differences in demographic, economic, and healthcare coverage characteristics between areas that received these counterfeit warning notices and those that did not receive notices. The aims of this study are to improve future counterfeit drug surveillance and better assess potential risk factors associated with counterfeit cancer drugs.

METHODS

Addresses for warning notices sent to healthcare practitioners were obtained from the FDA and then geocoded using arcgis. Variables chosen for statistical and geospatial analyses were then identified and assessed based on their potential association with Avastin access and affordability. These variables included demographic and economic factors (percent below the poverty line, percent uninsured, and median household income) and healthcare coverage data (percent Medicare enrollees) available from the US Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services. All variables were analyzed at the US county level.

RESULTS

Our analysis uncovered 401 distinct US counties where the FDA sent at least one counterfeit Avastin warning notice. A hot spot analysis of notices and variables was carried out using arcgis software to identify and visualize risk features with high and low values of clustering. In a multiple logistic regression model reassessing visually observed geospatial associations, the receipt of a notice was not significantly associated with percent uninsured (p = 0.3121), but was significantly associated with percent Medicare enrollees (OR = 0.874 per 10% increase; p = 0.0121), individuals below federal poverty line (OR = 2.990 per 10% increase; p < 0.0001), and median household income (OR = 2.698 per $10 000 increase; p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study found that county-level economic and demographic factors are potentially associated with counterfeit Avastin warning receipt after controlling for the total number of people residing in each county. These geographic associations indicate that individuals in counties where patients have greater ability to afford more expensive treatment, and consequently where providers can seek higher reimbursement, may have been at higher risk to counterfeit Avastin exposure. These findings can help inform future efforts to improve drug safety surveillance and more proactively identify patients at the highest risk for counterfeit cancer drugs.

Could vitamin D sufficiency improve the survival of colorectal cancer patients?

PURPOSE

To determine whether a higher serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentration at diagnosis is associated with longer survival of colorectal cancer patients.

METHODS

A meta-analysis was performed of studies of the relationship between 25(OH)D and mortality of patients with colorectal cancer. A random-effects model was used to calculate a pooled hazards ratio. Homogeneity was evaluated through a DerSimonian-Laird test.

RESULTS

Higher serum concentrations of 25(OH)D were associated with lower mortality in patients with colorectal cancer. Patients in the highest quintile of 25(OH)D had 37% lower mortality from colorectal cancer compared to those in the lowest quintile of 25(OH)D (pooled odds ratio=0.63, p<0.0001). Dose-response curves showed lower hazard ratios for mortality with higher serum 25(OH)D through at least 40ng/ml. There were no exceptions.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher serum 25(OH)D was associated with lower mortality of patients with colorectal cancer. These results suggest that colorectal cancer patients with deficient levels of serum 25(OH)D should have their levels restored to a normal range (30-80ng/ml). This could be done with regular testing of serum 25(OH)D to be confident that an adequate serum level is being maintained. Additional studies would be worthwhile to evaluate confounding or the possibility of reverse causation.

Are low ultraviolet B and vitamin D associated with higher incidence of multiple myeloma?

The purpose of this study was to determine whether an inverse association exists between latitude, solar ultraviolet B (UVB) irradiance, and incidence rates of multiple myeloma.Methods Associations of latitude and UVB irradiance with age-standardized incidence rates of multiple myeloma were analyzed for 175 countries while controlling for sex-specific obesity prevalence, cigarette consumption, and alcohol consumption using multiple linear regression.Results Incidence rates of multiple myeloma were greater at higher latitudes (R(2) for latitude for males=0.31, p<0.0001; females R(2)=0.27, p<0.0001). In regression models for males (R(2)=0.62, p<0.0001) and females (R(2)=0.51, p<0.0001), UVB irradiance was independently inversely associated with incidence rates.Conclusions Age-adjusted incidence rates of multiple myeloma were higher in countries with lower solar UVB irradiance. Further investigation is warranted in individuals of the association of prediagnostic serum 25(OH)D with risk.

An exploration of counterfeit medicine surveillance strategies guided by geospatial analysis: lessons learned from counterfeit Avastin detection in the US drug supply chain

OBJECTIVE

To explore healthcare policy and system improvements that would more proactively respond to future penetration of counterfeit cancer medications in the USA drug supply chain using geospatial analysis.

DESIGN

A statistical and geospatial analysis of areas that received notices from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) about the possibility of counterfeit Avastin penetrating the US drug supply chain. Data from FDA warning notices were compared to data from 44 demographic variables available from the US Census Bureau via correlation, means testing and geospatial visualisation. Results were interpreted in light of existing literature in order to recommend improvements to surveillance of counterfeit medicines.

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

This study analysed 791 distinct healthcare provider addresses that received FDA warning notices across 30,431 zip codes in the USA.

OUTCOMES

Statistical outputs were Pearson's correlation coefficients and t values. Geospatial outputs were cartographic visualisations. These data were used to generate the overarching study outcome, which was a recommendation for a strategy for drug safety surveillance congruent with existing literature on counterfeit medication.

RESULTS

Zip codes with greater numbers of individuals age 65+ and greater numbers of ethnic white individuals were most correlated with receipt of a counterfeit Avastin notice. Geospatial visualisations designed in conjunction with statistical analysis of demographic variables appeared more capable of suggesting areas and populations that may be at risk for undetected counterfeit Avastin penetration.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that dual incorporation of statistical and geospatial analysis in surveillance of counterfeit medicine may be helpful in guiding efforts to prevent, detect and visualise counterfeit medicines penetrations in the US drug supply chain and other settings. Importantly, the information generated by these analyses could be utilised to identify at-risk populations associated with demographic characteristics. Stakeholders should explore these results as another tool to improve on counterfeit medicine surveillance.

What is the relationship between ultraviolet B and global incidence rates of colorectal cancer?

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between ultraviolet B and global incidence of colorectal cancer, while controlling for relevant covariates. Linear regression was used to assess the relationship between latitude and incidence rates of colon cancer in 173 countries. Multiple linear regression was employed to investigate the relationship between ultraviolet B dose and colorectal cancer rates while controlling for per capita intake of energy from animal sources, per capita health expenditure, pigmentation, and life expectancy. Data on all variables were available for 139 countries. Incidence of colon cancer was highest in countries distant from the equator (R² = 0.50, p < 0.0001). UV B dose (p < 0.0001) was independently, inversely associated with incidence rates of colorectal cancer after controlling for intake of energy from animal sources, per capita health expenditure, pigmentation, and life expectancy (R² for overall model = 0.76, p < 0.0001). Consistent with previous research, UVB was inversely associated with incidence of colon cancer. Further research on vitamin D and prevention of colon cancer in individuals should be conducted, including studies of higher serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations than have been studied to date.