Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

LncRNA NEAT1 and MALAT1 are involved in polycystic ovary syndrome pathogenesis by functioning as competing endogenous RNAs to control the expression of PCOS-related target genes

Accumulating evidence has shown an abnormal expression of several non-coding RNAs in ovarian tissues which might be closely linked with the pathogenesis of PCOS. The aim of this study was to identify competing endogenous (ce) RNA network: long non-coding RNA (lncRNA), microRNA (miRNA) and their target genes: androgen receptor (AR), follistatin (FST) and insulin receptor substrate-2 (IRS-2), which are relevant to PCOS, to underline the molecular pathogenesis of PCOS and assist in early diagnosis and treatment. Bioinformatic analysis was performed to retrieve a ceRNA network: [lncRNA (NEAT1 and MALAT1) - miRNA (miR-30a-5p and miR-30d-5p) - mRNA (AR, FST and IRS-2)] linked to PCOS. Expression of the selected RNAs was examined by qPCR in peripheral blood leukocytes obtained from 73 PCOS patients (41 obese and 32 non-obese) and 31 healthy controls. PCOS patients showed significantly higher expression levels of NEAT1, miR-30a-5p, AR, FST and IRS-2, with significantly lower expression levels of MALAT1 and miR-30d-5p relative to controls especially in obese versus non-obese patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis indicated that most of the selected RNAs could serve as potential early diagnostic markers for PCOS with the highest efficiency obtained upon combining NEAT1 and miR-30d-5p or MALAT1 and miR-30a-5p with either of PCOS target genes. Moreover, all addressed RNAs had been proved as potential predictors of PCOS. The obtained data of ceRNA network raised the possibility that NEAT1 overexpression may increase the expression levels of AR, FST and IRS-2 by sponging miR-30d-5p, while low expression of MALAT1 may allow higher expression of the above genes via increasing miR-30a-5p, suggesting their involvement in PCOS pathogenesis and promising role for future diagnosis and targeted therapy.

Role of long noncoding RNAs; BDNF-AS and 17A and their relation to GABAergic dysfunction in Egyptian epileptic patients

Epilepsy is a chronic neurological disorder characterized by recurrent unprovoked seizures. Lately, long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) have been increasingly appreciated as regulators of epilepsy-related processes, however, their functional role in its pathogenesis is still to be explored. This study investigated the expression levels of lncRNAs; BDNF-AS and 17A in the sera of Egyptian patients with idiopathic generalized and symptomatic focal epilepsy and correlated their levels with brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), phosphorylated cAMP reaction element -binding protein (p-CREB), gamma- aminobutyric acid (GABA) and glutamate, to underline their related molecular mechanism. A total of 70 epileptic patients were divided into two clinical types, besides 30 healthy controls of matched age and sex. The expression levels of both lncRNAs were markedly upregulated in epileptic groups versus the healthy control group with predominance in the symptomatic focal one. Epileptic patients showed significantly lower levels of BDNF, p-CREB, GABA along with significant increase of glutamate levels and glutamate/ GABA ratio, especially in symptomatic focal versus idiopathic generalized epileptic ones. The obtained data raised the possibility that these lncRNAs might be involved in the pathogenesis of epilepsy via inhibition of GABA/p-CREB/BDNF pathway. The study shed light on the putative role of these lncRNAs in better diagnosis of epilepsy, particularly symptomatic focal epilepsy.

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.

RESULTS

We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group.

CONCLUSIONS

As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

Age-sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466-469, 470.0, 480-482.8, 483.0-483.9, 484.1-484.2, 484.6-484.7, and 487-489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4-B97.6, J09-J15.8, J16-J16.9, J20-J21.9, J91.0, P23.0-P23.4, and U04-U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age-sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age-sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240-275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217-248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18-1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07-1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16-1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23-1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4-131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4-115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (-70·7% [-77·2 to -61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7-61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7-65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5-14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6-35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3-35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4-25·2) in those aged 15-49 years, 30·5% (24·1-36·9) in those aged 50-69 years, and 21·9% (16·8-27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5-27·9) in those aged 15-49 years and 18·2% (12·5-24·5) in those aged 50-69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2-15·8) of LRI deaths.

INTERPRETATION

The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-18: a geospatial modelling study

BACKGROUND

More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels.

METHODS

We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution.

FINDINGS

Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000-257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution.

INTERPRETATION

Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Ameliorating effect of ketogenic diet on acute status epilepticus: Insights into biochemical and histological changes in rat hippocampus

This study aimed to evaluate the potential neuroprotective effects of ketogenic diet (KD) against the neuronal disruptions induced by SE in lithium-pilocarpine rat model of status epilepticus (SE). Four groups of female rats include; groups I and III received standard diet and groups II and IV received KD for 3 weeks. Groups I and II were left untreated, while groups III and IV were injected with LiCl (127 mg/kg, i.p.) followed by pilocarpine HCl (10 mg/kg, i.p.) 18-24 h later, repeatedly, till induction of SE. 72 h post-SE, KD effectively ameliorated the balance between excitatory (glutamate) and inhibitory (GABA) neurotransmitters and the oxidative stress indices, increased adenine nucleotides and decreased immunoreactivity of iNOS, TNFα, glial fibrillary acidic protein, and synaptophysin. Thiswas in association with improvement in inflammatory response and neuronal tissue characteristics in hippocampus of SE rats. Histological changes showed preservation of neuronal integrity. These findings highlight the protective effects of KD in the acute phase post-SE via ameliorating biochemical and histological changes involved. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: Epilepsy is the fourth most common neurological disorder that requires lifelong treatment. It stigmatizes patients and their families. The use of the ketogenic diet (KD) as a therapy for epilepsy developed from observations that fasting could reduce seizures. From 1920s, the KD was a common epilepsy treatment until it was gradually superseded by anticonvulsant drugs so that by the 1980s it was rarely used. However, there has been a resurgence of interest and usage of the KD for epilepsy since the turn of the century. Despite its long history, the mechanisms by which KD exhibits its anti-seizure action are not fully understood. Our study aims to identify the mechanism of KD which may help further studies to achieve the same benefits with a drug or supplement to overcome its unpalatability and gastrointestinal side effects.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

METHODS

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

FINDINGS

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

INTERPRETATION

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

BACKGROUND

Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs.

FINDINGS

Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.

METHODS

We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.

FINDINGS

The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.

INTERPRETATION

By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Long noncoding RNAs APOA1-AS, IFNG-AS1, RMRP and their related biomolecules in Egyptian patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: Relation to disease activity and patient disability

Lately, long noncoding (lnc) RNAs are increasingly appreciated for their involvement in multiple sclerosis (MS). In inflammation and autoimmunity, a role of apoprotein A1 (ApoA1), mediated by sphingosine 1-phosphate receptors (S1PRs), was reported. However, the epigenetic mechanisms regulating these biomolecules and their role in MS remains elusive. This case control study investigated the role of ApoA1, sphingosine kinase 1 and 2 (SPHK1 & 2), S1PR1 & 5, interferon-γ (IFN-γ) and interleukin 17 (IL17) in MS, beside three lncRNA: APOA1-AS, IFNG-AS1, and RMRP. Expression of SPHKs, S1PRs, and lncRNAs were measured in 72 relapsing-remitting MS patients (37 during relapse and 35 in remission) and 28 controls. Plasma levels of ApoA1, IFN-γ and IL17 were determined. The impact of these parameters on MS activity, relapse rate and patient disability was assessed. APOA1-AS, IFNG-AS1, SPHK1 & 2, and S1PR5 were upregulated in RRMS patients. Differences in ApoA1, SPHK2, and IL17 were observed between relapse and remission. Importantly, ApoA1, SPHK2, and IL17 were related to activity, while S1PR1 and IFN-γ were linked to disability, though, only IFN-γ was associated with relapse rate. Finally, an excellent diagnostic power of IFN-γ, IL17, SPHK1 and APOA1-AS was demonstrated, whereas SPHK2 showed promising prognostic power in predicting relapses.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories.

METHODS

We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections.

FINDINGS

Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets.

INTERPRETATION

Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations.

METHODS

We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.

FINDINGS

In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low.

INTERPRETATION

By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.

METHODS

We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.

FINDINGS

From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4-52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5-4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3-200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5-2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4-7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9-1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8-7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07-0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2-2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3-0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0-3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.

INTERPRETATION

Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Risk and predictors of suicide in colorectal cancer patients: a Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results analysis

Background

The risk of suicide is higher for patients with colorectal cancer (crc) than for the general population. Given known differences in morbidity and sites of recurrence, we sought to compare the predictors of suicide for patients with colon cancer and with rectal cancer.

Methods

Using the U.S. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, adult patients with confirmed adenocarcinoma of the colon or rectum during 1973-2009 were identified. Parametric and nonparametric tests were used to assess selected variables, and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to determine predictors of suicide.

Results

The database identified 187,996 patients with rectal cancer and 443,368 with colon cancer. Compared with the rectal cancer group, the colon cancer group was older (median age: 70 years vs. 67 years; p < 0.001) and included more women (51% vs. 43%, p < 0.001). Suicide rates were similar in the colon and rectal cancer groups [611 (0.14%) vs. 337 (0.18%), p < 0.001]. On univariate analysis, rectal cancer was a predictor of suicide [hazard ratio (hr): 1.26; 95% confidence interval (ci): 1.10 to 1.43]. However, after adjusting for clinical and pathology factors, rectal cancer was not a predictor of suicide (hr: 1.05; 95% ci: 0.83 to 1.33). In the colon cancer cohort, independent predictors of suicide included older age, male sex, white race, and lack of primary resection. The aforementioned predictors, plus metastatic disease, similarly predicted suicide in the rectal cancer cohort.

Conclusions

The suicide risk in crc patients is low (<0.2%), and no difference was found based on location of the primary tumour. Sex, age, race, distant spread of disease, and intact primary tumour were the main predictors of suicide among crc patients. Further studies and interventions are needed to target these high-risk groups.

Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate significantly decreases serum lipoprotein levels compared with entecavir nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy in chronic hepatitis B carriers

BACKGROUND

Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) and entecavir (ETV) are first-line treatments for chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Studies suggest lipid lowering effect of TDF in human immunodeficiency virus positive (HIV+) individuals, but the effect on lipids and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in CHB is unknown.

AIM

To compare TDF vs ETV effects on lipid levels in CHB.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, data on serum lipids and CVD risk factors at baseline and ~1 year on TDF or ETV were collected from CHB carriers. We used propensity score matched models to assess the effect on total cholesterol (TC), LDL-C, HDL and triglycerides (TGL).

RESULTS

In 348 patients, median age was 57 (IQR: 47-65 years), 63% were male, 77% were Asian, 19% were cirrhotic, 25% were HBeAg positive at baseline, and 72% received TDF vs 28% ETV. ETV-treated patients were older (median age: 60 vs 55, P<.01), had similar smoking and hypertension rates, but diabetes and dyslipidemia were more prevalent (19% vs 9%, P=.01; 14% vs 6%, P=.05, respectively). In propensity score matched models for age, gender, usage of lipid lowering agents, dyslipidemia and diabetes, TDF-treated patients were more likely to show a 20% decrease in TC (95% CI: 3%-25%), LDL-C (95% CI: 1%-25%) and HDL-C (CI: 10%-30%) levels compared with those on ETV. No change in TGL was observed in either group.

CONCLUSIONS

A greater decline in TC, LDL-C and HDL was observed in CHB carriers receiving TDF compared with ETV. These data may influence anti-viral choice in CHB carriers at risk for CVD.

Impact of Genetic Polymorphism of methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase C677T on Development of Hyperhomocysteinemia and Related Oxidative Changes in Egyptian β-Thalassemia Major Patients

BACKGROUND

β-thalasemia major (β-TM) patients often suffer from various vascular complications together with increased oxidative stress. Hyperhomocysteinemia (Hhcy) has been defined as a risk factor for these complications. Genetic polymorphism of methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) C677T has been shown to cause Hhcy particularly in individuals with low B-vitamins. However, the status of homocysteine (hcy) in β-TM has not yet been adequately defined.

AIM

To evaluate the genetic polymorphism of MTHFR C677T among β-TM patients and its prospective contribution to Hhcy and related oxidative changes.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Genotyping for MTHFR C677T was done by PCR-RFLP technique. Plasma hcy, vitamin B12, folate, malondialdehyde (MDA), total antioxidant capacity (TAC), oxidized low density lipoprotein (oxLDL), total nitric oxide (NOx) and lipid profile were determined in 66 β-TM patients and 66 control subjects of matched age and sex.

RESULTS

The prevalence of MTHFR 677TT genotype was significant among β-TM patients (12%) compared to (3%) controls (OR = 4.9, 95%CI:1.2-24.2,P = 0.03). A strong association between Hhcy and MTHFR TT genotype was observed (OR = 7.7, 95%CI:2.8-20.9) where all β-TM patients with TT genotype were hyperhomocystienemic (≥ 15 μmol/l) and having sub-optimal folate level than those with CT or CC genotypes. Hyperhomocystienemic patients have suffered from increased oxidative stress characterized by significant increase in plasma MDA and oxLDL, and a significant reduction of plasma TAC and total NOx. Lipid profile of those patients was severely affected indicated by reduction in HDL and HDL/LDL and elevation in atherogenic index as compared with CC genotype. Other measured parameters were not significantly different among β-TM patients with different MTHFR genotypes.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that Egyptian β-TM patients with MTHFR 677TT genotype could be at increasing risk of developing Hhcy particularly with folate deficiency. This state of Hhcy may account potentially for most oxidative changes and atherogenic vascular complications frequently reported in β-TM patients.

Avemar and Echinacea extracts enhance mobilization and homing of CD34(+) stem cells in rats with acute myocardial infarction

Introduction

Activation of endogenous stem cell mobilization can contribute to myocardial regeneration after ischemic injury. This study aimed to evaluate the possible role of Avemar or Echinacea extracts in inducing mobilization and homing of CD34⁺ stem cells in relation to the inflammatory and hematopoietic cytokines in rats suffering from acute myocardial infarction (AMI).

Methods

AMI was developed by two consecutive subcutaneous injections of isoprenaline (85 mg/kg). AMI rats were either post-treated or pre- and post-treated daily with oral doses of Avemar (121 mg/kg) or Echinacea (130 mg/kg). In whole blood, the number of CD34⁺ cells was measured by flow cytometry and their homing to the myocardium was immunohistochemically assessed. Serum creatine kinase, vascular endothelial growth factor, interleukin-8 and granulocyte macrophage colony stimulating factor were determined on days 1, 7 and 14 after AMI. Sections of the myocardium were histopathologically assessed.

Results

Rats pre- and post-treated with Avemar or Echinacea exhibited substantial increases in the number of circulating CD34⁺ cells, peaking on the first day after AMI to approximately 13-fold and 15-fold, respectively, with a decline in their level on day 7 followed by a significant increase on day 14 compared to their corresponding AMI levels. Only post-treatment with Echinacea caused a time-dependent increase in circulating CD34⁺ cells on days 7 and 14. Such increases in circulating CD34⁺ cells were accompanied by increased homing to myocardial tissue 14 days after AMI. Interestingly, pre- and post-treatment with Avemar or Echinacea substantially increased serum creatine kinase on day 1, normalized its activity on day 7 and, on continued treatment, only Echinacea markedly increased its activity on day 14 compared to the corresponding AMI values. Moreover, both treatments modified differently the elevated serum vascular endothelial growth factor and the lowered granulocyte macrophage colony stimulating factor levels of the AMI group but did not affect the level of interleukin-8. These results were supported histopathologically by reduced inflammatory reactions and enhanced neovascularization.

Conclusion

Avemar and Echinacea extracts can effectively induce mobilization and homing of CD34⁺ stem cells to the myocardial tissue and thus may help in stem cell-based regeneration of the infarcted myocardium.

Ozone ameliorates age-related oxidative stress changes in rat liver and kidney: effects of pre- and post-ageing administration

The ageing process is known to be accompanied by increased oxidative stress and compromised antioxidant defenses. Controlled ozone administration has been shown to be effective in various pathophysiological conditions with an underlying oxidative burden. However, its effect on the biochemical alterations associated with the ageing process has been rarely studied. Therefore, the present work was carried out to study the role of ozone in counteracting the state of oxidative stress associated with ageing in rat liver and kidneys using two experimental models. In the pre-ageing model, ozone was administered prior to the onset of ageing at adulthood and continued after the start of the ageing process (3-month-old rats until the age of 15 months). While in the post-ageing model, ozone was administered after ageing has begun and lasted for one month (14-month-old rats until the age of 15 months). The pre-ageing ozone administration effectively reduced lipid and protein oxidation markers, namely, malondialdehyde and protein carbonyl levels and decreased lipofuscin pigment deposition in rat liver and kidneys. Moreover, it significantly restored hepatic and renal reduced glutathione (GSH) contents and normalized cytosolic hepatic glutathione peroxidase activity. Similar but less pronounced effects were observed in the post-ageing ozone-treated group. Nevertheless, in the latter model ozone administration failed to significantly affect liver and kidney lipofuscin levels, as well as kidney GSH contents. These data provide evidences for potentially positive effects of pre-ageing ozone therapy in neutralizing chronic oxidative stress associated with ageing in rat liver and kidneys.

Pretreatment with turmeric modulates the inhibitory influence of cisplatin and paclitaxel on CYP2E1 and CYP3A1/2 in isolated rat hepatic microsomes

Previous animal studies have shown that turmeric can significantly modulate the activity of several drug metabolizing enzymes, this may dramatically affect the bioavailability of several drugs resulting in over dose or less therapeutic effects. This study was directed to evaluate the inhibitory effects of cisplatin and paclitaxel on two CYP450 enzymes namely CYP2E1 and CYP3A1/2 in hepatic microsomes isolated from normal and turmeric pretreated rats. Cisplatin and paclitaxel were added by different concentrations to hepatic microsomes isolated from untreated and turmeric (100 mg/kg/day) pretreated rats for 15 days after receiving pyrazole or dexamethasone for induction of CYP2E1 and CYP3A1/2 respectively. The kinetic potency of these drugs as CYP inhibitors was determined by analysis of Lineweaver-Burk plot. Addition of cisplatin or paclitaxel by (10, 50 and 100 μM) to hepatic microsomes from normal or turmeric pretreated rats caused a concentration dependent inhibition of CYP2E1, with an evidence of less inhibition in turmeric pretreated microsomes particularly at higher concentration. Both drugs at 100 μM displayed a mixed type of inhibition of CYP2E1 in normal or turmeric pretreated microsomes where paclitaxel was the most potent inhibitor. Cisplatin (10, 50 and 100 μM) caused a concentration dependant inhibition of CYP3A1/2 that was enhanced by turmeric pretreatment. The inhibition of CYP3A1/2 by cisplatin (100 μM) was in non-competitive manner with a smaller Ki value in turmeric pretreated microsomes. The inhibitory influence of paclitaxel (10, 50 and 100 μM) on CYP3A1/2 decreased with increasing the drug concentration and this inhibition was augmented by turmeric pretreatment. Interestingly, the inhibition of this enzyme by paclitaxel (10 μM) was switched from mixed type in normal microsomes to competitive manner in turmeric pretreated ones with a marked reduction of Ki values reflecting greater inhibitory influence of paclitaxel on CYP3A1/2 by turmeric pretreatment. In conclusion, turmeric pretreatment attenuated the inhibitory influence of cisplatin and paclitaxel on CYP2E1 activity and magnified their inhibition on CYP3A1/2, thus the use of turmeric with drugs or other medications should raise concern for drugs-herb interactions.

Modulation of age-related changes in oxidative stress markers and energy status in the rat heart and hippocampus: a significant role for ozone therapy

Oxidative stress emerges as a key player in the ageing process. Controlled ozone administration is known to promote an oxidative preconditioning or adaptation to oxidative stress. The present study investigated whether prophylactic ozone administration could interfere with the age-related changes in the heart and the hippocampus of rats. Four groups of rats, aged about 3 months old, were used. Group 1 (Prophylactic ozone group) received ozone/oxygen mixture by rectal insufflations (0.6 mg/kg) twice/week for the first 3 months, then once/week till the age of 15 months. Group 2 (Oxygen group) received oxygen as vehicle for ozone in a manner similar to group 1. Group 3 (Aged control group) was kept without any treatment until the age of 15 months. A fourth group of rats (Adult control group) was evaluated at 3 months of age to provide baseline data. Ozone alleviated age-associated redox state imbalance as evidenced by reduction of lipid and protein oxidation markers, lessening of lipofuscin deposition, restoration of glutathione levels in both tissues and normalization of glutathione peroxidase activity in the heart tissue. Ozone also mitigated age-associated energy failure in the heart and the hippocampus, improved cardiac cytosolic Ca(2+) homeostasis and restored the attenuated Na(+) , K(+) -ATPase activity in the hippocampus of aged rats. These data provide new evidence concerning the anti-ageing potential of prophylactic ozone administration.

Autoantibodies to GW bodies and other autoantigens in primary biliary cirrhosis

Autoantibodies to intracellular targets in mitochondria and nuclei are serological hallmarks of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). One of the most recently identified cellular targets of PBC autoantibodies is a novel cytoplasmic structure referred to as GW bodies [GWB, G (glycine) W (tryptophan)-containing bodies (GWB)]. GWB are indentified as discrete cytoplasmic domains that are involved in mRNA processing via the RNA interference (RNAi) pathway. Key components of GWB include the proteins GW182, Ago2, RNA-associated protein 55 (RAP55) and Ge-1/Hedls. The primary objective was to study the frequency and clinical association of antibodies directed to GWB components, in 109 PBC patients. Autoantibodies to mitochondrial antigen-pyruvate dehydrogenase complex (M2), branched-chain 2-oxo-acid dehydrogenase complex and 2-oxo glutarate dehydrogenase complex (3E-BPO), gp210, sp100, promyelocytic leukaemia cell antigen (PML) and liver kidney microsomal-1 antigen (LKM-1) were detected by a line immunoassay and antibodies to GWB (GW182, RAP55, Ge-1, GW2, GW3) and glutamate receptor interacting protein (GRIP)-associated protein-1 (GRASP-1), by an addressable laser bead immunoassay (ALBIA). The most common GWB autoantigen targets were: RAP55-28%, GW182-12%, GW2-2% and antibodies to GRASP-1-17%. By comparison, the frequency of reactivity to established PBC autoantigens was: gp210, 27%; sp100, 27% and PML, 17%. None of the autoantibodies were associated with differences in Mayo risk score or liver decompensation. This study is the first study to show that antibodies to RAP55, GW182 and GRASP-1 are the most common GWB targets in PBC.

Protective effect of taurine and quercetin against renal dysfunction associated with the combined use of gentamycin and diclofenac

The potential protective effects of taurine and quercetin against gentamycin (GM)/diclofenac (DC) combined nephrotoxicity were investigated in rats. The results showed that administration of DC alone at an oral dose of 5 mg/kg b.wt/day for 28 days had no significant effect on the measured parameters, except for marked increase in urinary uronic acid excretion. Administration of GM alone at a dose of 100 mg/kg b.wt/day i.p. for 8 days resulted in obvious nephrotoxicity. Combined GM-DC treatment led to the most pronounced nephrotoxicity, as indicated by greater elevations in serum urea, creatinine and urinary N-acetyl-beta-D-glucosaminidase (NAG), together with severe depression of renal cortical Na , K+-ATPase, compared to GM-treated group. Moreover, only combined treatment resulted in significant decrease in urinary potassium and renal cortical glutathione peroxidase (GSHPx), together with an increase in renal cortical lipid peroxidation products (LPOs). Co-administration of taurine or quercetin normalized creatinine clearance and ameliorated the elevations in urinary proteins, uronic acids, NAG and renal cortical LPOs in GM/DC treated rats. The study justifies the use of taurine and quercetin as renoprotective agents against the nephrotoxicity caused by GM/DC therapy.

Unintended pregnancy in Egypt: evidence from the national study on women giving birth in 1999

The current study aimed to estimate the prevalence and correlates of unintended pregnancy among ever-married women. The study sample was 2349 ever-married women aged 15-49 years who gave birth in 1999. Unintended pregnancy was defined as unwanted and mistimed pregnancies. Of these, 431 (18.5%) women reported unintended pregnancy: 137 were mistimed (5.9%) and 294 were unwanted (12.6%). Women of older age, living in frontier governorates, with poor knowledge of the ovulatory cycle, having a more than ideal family size, using contraceptive methods and having 4 or more children were at increased odds of reporting unintended pregnancies. Fewer antenatal care visits and low child weight at birth were significantly associated with unintended pregnancy.

Cytodiagnosis of nipple discharge: a study of 602 samples from 484 cases

To find out the gross and microscopic differentiating features between nipple discharges (ND) due to various breast lesions, smears of 602 ND samples from 484 cases were reviewed by one of the investigators (D.K.D.). The reviewed cytodiagnoses were as follows: benign nipple discharge (59.1%), inflammatory ND (6.5%), ?papillary lesions (2.5%), papillary lesions (20.6%), papillary lesions with atypia (3.8%), duct cells with atypia (0.2%), suspicious for malignancy (0.5%), malignant ND (1.2%), and inadequate (5.6%). Following review, samples with epithelial abnormalities (?papillary lesion, papillary lesion with and without atypia, duct cells with atypia, suspicious for malignancy, and malignancy) increased from 16.6% to 30.4% of adequate samples (P < 0.0001). 37.9% unilateral ND samples showed epithelial abnormalities, as opposed to 18.9% of bilateral ND samples (P < 0.0001). Bloodstained ND showed epithelial abnormalities in 41.5% samples, as compared to 22.1% of ND with other specified gross characteristics (P < 0.0001). The samples with epithelial abnormalities differed significantly from benign and inflammatory ND in respect of frequency of benign duct cells, duct cells with atypia, papillary clusters with or without atypia, malignant cells, columnar cells, red blood cells, inflammatory cells, and background lipid vacuoles (P < 0.01 to < 0.0001). The ND samples with suspicious and malignant cytology, besides the presence of malignant cells (P < 0.0001), differed significantly from rest of the lesions in respect of foam cells (P < 0.0001), red blood cells (P < 0.01), and inflammatory cells (P < 0.05). When compared with histopathological diagnosis in 20 cases, the benign or malignant nature of the lesion was correctly identified in ND in 80% cases. The ND cytologies in 7 histologically proved malignant cases were malignancy (3 cases), suspicious for malignancy (1 case), papillary lesion with atypia (1 case), papillary lesion (1 case), and benign ND (1 case).

Influence of verapamil on the efficacy of vitamin E in preventing the ischemia-reperfusion-induced biochemical dearrangement in cerebral cortex of rat

The possibility that verapamil (CAS 52-53-9) may intensify the efficacy of vitamin E in preventing the ischemia-reperfusion-caused biochemical dearrangement in rat cerebral cortex was investigated. A daily injection of vitamin E at i.m. dose of 175 mg/kg b.wt. for 7 days prior to subjecting the rats to 1 h bilateral occlusion of the common carotid arteries followed by reperfusion for another 1 h, moderately diminished the ischemia-reperfusion-induced increase in the activity of lactate dehydrogenase and in formation of conjugated dienes as well as in the conversion of xanthine dehydrogenase-->xanthine oxidase in cerebral cortex of rats. However, concomitant injection of verapamil at i.m. dose of 0.68 mg/kg b.wt. 15 min prior to ischemia-reperfusion together with vitamin E pretreatment afforded an elegant combined therapy that effectively abolished the dearrangement caused by ischemia-reperfusion in the above parameters. These results indicated that the protective efficacy of vitamin E against ischemia/reperfusion-induced biochemical dearrangement in cerebral cortex was intensified by concomitant use of verapamil.

Effect of various stressors on the level of lipid peroxide, antioxidants and Na+, K(+)-ATPase activity in rat brain

The level of malondialdehyde (MDA), an index of lipid peroxidation, and the antioxidants superoxide dismutase (SOD) and glutathione (GSH), as well as the activity of Na+, K(+)-ATPase, were assessed in whole rat brain after immobilization, anemic hypoxia (NaNO2) and 72 h starvation. The effect of these stressors on plasma glucose and corticosterone levels was also observed. Hypoxia and starvation stimulated the lipid peroxide formation in brain as indicated by an increase in the level of MDA, being higher after starvation than hypoxia. Brain SOD activity was also increased in response to hypoxia and starvation while GSH content was only diminished in hypoxia. However, neither MDA nor antioxidants were affected by immobilization. On the other hand, the activity of brain Na+, K(+)-ATPase was significantly increased by immobilization and hypoxia but decreased in starvation. A similar pattern of change was also observed in plasma glucose and corticosterone levels in response to these stressors. These results elucidate differences in the biochemical response of animals towards various types of stress, with increased lipid peroxide formation in hypoxia and starvation.

Effect of calcium channel antagonists in modifying the inhibitory influence of adenosine on insulin secretion

The present work was performed to study the effect of two calcium channel antagonists, namely verapamil (CAS 52-53-9) and nifedipine (CAS 21829-25-4) in modifying the inhibitory influence of adenosine on insulin secretion from isolated rat pancreatic islets. The combined effect of adenosine and these agents on serum insulin and glucose levels in vivo was also investigated. Both verapamil and nifedipine at 100 mumol/l and 1 mumol/l, respectively, produced a significant inhibition of glucose-stimulated insulin secretion from pancreatic islets. Combination of these agents with adenosine 10 mumol/l did not modify the inhibitory effect of adenosine on insulin secretion. Verapamil (21.6 mg/kg b.wt.) and nifedipine (5.4 mg/kg b.wt.) intraperitoneally injected prior to glucose loading produced a significant increase in serum glucose with an accompanied decrease in serum insulin levels. Concurrent administration of verapamil with adenosine neither affected the hyperglycaemic nor the hypoinsulinaemic effects of adenosine, whereas combined administration of nifedipine and adenosine decreased the hyperglycaemic effect of adenosine but not its hypoinsulinaemic effect. These results may indicate that these calcium channel antagonists do not interact with adenosine receptors which mediate its inhibitory effect on insulin secretion.

Effect of dietary zinc on lipid peroxidation, glutathione, protein thiols levels and superoxide dismutase activity in rat tissues

Dietary zinc deficiency can cause increased lipid peroxidation while zinc supplementation inhibited this process. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of dietary zinc on malondialdehyde (MDA) product as an index of endogenous lipid peroxidation, glutathione (GSH) and protein thiols (PrSHs) as well as superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity in rat blood, liver and pancreas. Young male rats were fed a zinc deficient (ZD) basal diet containing congruent to 0.5 ppm zinc or were fed ad libitum (AL) a zinc adequate diet (30 ppm zinc) for 3 weeks. The ZD rats were then fed the basal diet supplemented with either 100 ppm zinc or 1000 ppm zinc for another 3 weeks. The zinc concentration of the investigated tissues reflected the dietary zinc content. Plasma, liver and pancreas MDA measurements from ZD rats revealed significant increases (P < 0.05, < 0.001) as compared to AL control values, the highest increase was in pancreas. ZD rats also displayed significant decreases in their blood and liver GSH content (P < 0.001, < 0.05) and SOD activity (P < 0.001) as well as serum PrSHs (P < 0.001) as compared to AL control values. However, these measurements in pancreas were insignificantly changed except GSH content was significantly increased (P < 0.05). Feeding ZD rats a diet containing 100 ppm or 1000 ppm zinc resulted in a significant reduction of the endogenous MDA formation (P < 0.05, < 0.001) in their tissues with the reversal of changes in the other parameters, so that their levels were nearly restored to AL control values especially in response to 1000 ppm zinc.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Role of vitamin A in modulating the radiation-induced changes in intestinal disaccharidases of rats exposed to multifractionated gamma-radiations

PURPOSE

The aim of this investigation was to determine whether pre- or post-administration of vitamin A will be effective in reducing the radiation-induced alterations in intestinal disaccharidases in rats.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Rats were subjected to fractionated whole-body irradiation (20 x 0.5 Gy). Intestinal lactase activity as well as maltase and sucrase activities were assessed. Vitamin A was administered at daily intraperitoneal dose of 15,000 IU/kg body weight for 7 days prior to radiotherapy and thereafter twice weekly throughout therapy up to 7 days post irradiation.

RESULTS

In irradiated rats a marked decrease in intestinal lactase activity to about one-fourth of those in non-irradiated rats was observed. In addition, a significant reduction in maltase and sucrase activities to one half of the control group was observed. The application of vitamin A significantly improved the radiation-induced inhibition of intestinal enzymes. Pretreatment application of vitamin A is more efficient to protect against radiation injury than a posttreatment application.

CONCLUSIONS

The usage of vitamin A for modulation of radiation-induced changes in intestinal enzymes provides sufficient protection against treatment side effects induced by large volume radiotherapy.

Combined effect of adenosine, alpha adrenergic and adenosine antagonists on serum insulin and insulin secretion from rat pancreatic islets

1. The effect of adenosine separately or in combination with alpha-1 adrenergic antagonist prazosin and alpha-2 adrenergic antagonist yohimbine as well as adenosine antagonists 8-phenyltheophylline and xanthine amine conjugate on glucose-induced insulin secretion from isolated rat pancreatic islets was studied. 2. Their in vivo effects on serum glucose and insulin levels were also investigated. Adenosine at 10 and 100 microM inhibited significantly, insulin secretion from the isolated islets whereas at 10 mM slightly increased the secretion of insulin. 3. Prazosin used at 100 microM inhibited insulin secretion. When it combined with adenosine (10 microM) it augmented the inhibitory effect of adenosine. 4. In vivo prazosin (21 mg/kg body wt) caused a hyperglycaemia which was accompanied by hypoinsulinaemia. 5. Concurrent administration of this drug with adenosine neither affect the hyperglycaemic nor the hypoinsulinaemic effects of adenosine. 6. On the other hand, yohimbine (100 microM) has no effect neither separately nor in combination with adenosine (10 microM) in modulating the inhibitory effect of adenosine on insulin secretion. 7. When Yohimbine administered at 19.5 mg/kg body wt it did not alter serum glucose but it markedly increased the serum insulin level. Its combined administration with adenosine reduced the hyperglycaemic effect of adenosine with a remarkable increase in serum insulin. 8. Both adenosine-antagonists were ineffective in alteration of insulin secretion. 9. However, combination of 8-phenyltheophylline with adenosine (10 microM) totally blocked the inhibitory effect of adenosine on insulin secretion while xanthine amine conjugate failed to prevent this effect of adenosine.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Effect of praziquantel treatment on lipid peroxide levels and superoxide dismutase activity in tissues of healthy and Schistosoma mansoni infected mice

The elevated levels of lipid peroxide product as malondialdehyde (MDA) in plasma, liver, spleen, intestine and kidney of Schistosome-infected mice were differently ameliorated by treatment with praziquantel (EMBAY 8440, CAS 55268-74-1) (2 x 500 mg/kg body wt.) being nearly normalized in plasma and intestine, moderately improved in liver and slightly affected in spleen and kidney. However, the drug failed to affect the MDA levels in the different organs of healthy mice. Moreover, the increased hepatic superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity in infected mice was normalized while the decreased activities in the other tissues were further decreased than normal values in response to praziquantel treatment. Interestingly, in healthy mice, the drug similarly inhibited SOD activities in blood, spleen and kidney. The specificity of this action remains to be clarified. Possible explanations of these findings are given.

Effect of pretreatment with vitamin E or diazepam on brain metabolism of stressed rats

The effect of vitamin E (VE) or diazepam (DZ) pretreatment on some carbohydrate metabolic aspects in the brains of stressed rats was studied. DZ and VE were given i.p. at doses of 5 mg/kg body wt for 6 days prior to subjecting the animals to single swimming stress (SSS). Pretreatment of the rats with DZ or VE diminished the stress-induced increases in plasma corticosterone and glucose levels and reversed the decrease due to stress on brain ATP, glucose, glycogen and pyruvate contents. The increase in brain ADP and lactate was brought back to levels which approached the pre-stressed values. Moreover, DZ and VE pretreatments helped in attenuating the stress-induced alteration in brain mitochondrial and cytosolic hexokinase as well as sodium, potassium adenosine triphosphatase (Na+,K(+)-ATPase) activities. The change in these metabolic parameters produced by VE pre-treatment was less than that exhibited by DZ. The effects of VE were explained in light of its antioxidant property in preventing the free radical production and lipid peroxide formation which are important factors in the pathogenesis of stress.

Effect of vitamin C administration in modulating some biochemical changes in arthritic rats

Two phases of arthritis, acute phase (four days after adjuvant inoculation) and chronic phase (21 or 29 days after adjuvant inoculation) were studied in male rats. The effect of administration of vitamin C in a daily oral dose of 50 mg/kg body wt for four and 21 days starting on the day of adjuvant inoculation and for 7 days starting 21 days after adjuvant inoculation against these phases of arthritis was demonstrated. Results showed that prolonged administration of vitamin C (21 days) increased the lowered serum sulphydryl (SH-groups) to prearthritic values while it decreased the elevated level of blood glutathione (GSH) of arthritic rats. However, neither (four-day) nor seven-day treatment with vitamin C exerted any significant changes in these parameters. The results showed also a slight significant increase in the level of erythrocyte superoxide dismutase activity (SOD) [1.15.1.1] upon seven-day treatment with vitamin C. Meanwhile, four-, 21- or seven-day treatment with vitamin C produced no significant change in the elevated levels of serum ceruloplasmin (Cp) and alpha 2-macroglobulin (alpha 2-M) of arthritic rats. However, 21-day and 7-day administration of vitamin C has improved the lowered A/G ratio in these animals. The improvement in these parameters after prolonged administration of vitamin C was explained in the light of the antioxidant property of this vitamin and suggests a beneficial role for it in the treatment of arthritis.

Effect of praziquantel treatment on brain and kidney ATPase activities in healthy and schistosoma mansoni-infected mice

Na(+)-K(+)-dependent ouabain-sensitive ATPase and Mg(2+)-ATPase activities have been assayed in brain and kidney of healthy and Schistosoma mansoni-infected mice before and after praziquantel (EMBAY 8440, CAS 5526874-1) treatment. Schistosoma mansoni infection caused a moderate decrease of brain Na(+)-K(+)-ATPase activity with a marked inhibition of its Mg-stimulated ATPase. Meanwhile, a marked inhibition in both renal ATPase activities was observed in infected mice. Treatment of the infected mice with praziquantel (2 x 500 mg/kg b.wt.) reversed the inhibitory effect of infection on brain and kidney ATPase, so that the activity of both renal ATPase and that of brain Mg-ATPase were nearly corrected while the activity of brain Na(+)-K(+)-ATPase was increased to an extent greater than normal values. However, treatment of normal mice with praziquantel did not affect any of the measured parameters. Possible explanations of these findings are given.

Biochemical changes in arthritic rats under the influence of vitamin E

Two phases of adjuvant arthritis, acute phase (4 days after adjuvant inoculation) and chronic phase (21 and 29 days after adjuvant inoculation) were studied in male rats. The effect of administration of vitamin E in a daily oral dose of 147 mg/kg body wt. for one week against these phases of arthritis were demonstrated before and after adjuvant inoculation. Results showed that administration of the vitamin before and after adjuvant inoculation increased the lowered serum-SH group in arthritic rats so that their level was restored to pre-arthritic values especially in chronic treated group. Meanwhile, these treatments produced no change in the increased level of blood GSH or erythrocyte SOD activity of arthritic rats. The results showed also that administration of vitamin E before adjuvant inoculation increased significantly the level of alpha 2-M while it did not alter the increased serum Cp in acute phase. However, administration of the vitamin after adjuvant inoculation failed to exert any change in these parameters. In the meantime, these treatments tended to increase the lowered A/G of arthritic rats in different phases especially in acute one. These observations suggest that antioxidants such as vitamin E may be beneficial for arthritis.

Radioprotection of whole-body gamma-irradiation-induced alteration in some haematological parameters by cysteine, vitamin E and their combination in rats

Radioprotective effect of cysteine, vitamin E and their combination on gamma-irradiation-induced alteration in some haematological parameters in male rats has been studied 24 and 48 hrs after whole-body gamma-irradiation at a dose level of 7.5 Gy. The results of this study reveal that gamma-irradiation caused a significant decrease in red blood cells (RBCs) count with insignificant change in hemoglobin level, 24 and 48 hrs postirradiation, gamma-irradiated rats showed as well a progressive decrease in their blood ATP, and serum-SH levels with a significant increase in blood glutathione (GSH) level. Administration of cysteine or vitamin E preceding gamma-radiation exposure gave a significant radioprotection to the above haematological parameters. However, combination of both agents afforded a better protection, so that most of the measured parameters were restored to the pre-irradiated values. Finally, the date demonstrate that the radioprotection provided by combined administration of vitamin E and cysteine is feasible and perhaps, even more efficient against radiation injury to RBCs. This will appreciate the usage of such combination in protecting the patient during radiotherapy.