Genetic risk impacts the association of menopausal hormone therapy with colorectal cancer risk

BACKGROUND

Menopausal hormone therapy (MHT), a common treatment to relieve symptoms of menopause, is associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). To inform CRC risk prediction and MHT risk-benefit assessment, we aimed to evaluate the joint association of a polygenic risk score (PRS) for CRC and MHT on CRC risk.

METHODS

We used data from 28,486 postmenopausal women (11,519 cases and 16,967 controls) of European descent. A PRS based on 141 CRC-associated genetic variants was modeled as a categorical variable in quartiles. Multiplicative interaction between PRS and MHT use was evaluated using logistic regression. Additive interaction was measured using the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI). 30-year cumulative risks of CRC for 50-year-old women according to MHT use and PRS were calculated.

RESULTS

The reduction in odds ratios by MHT use was larger in women within the highest quartile of PRS compared to that in women within the lowest quartile of PRS (p-value = 2.7 × 10-8). At the highest quartile of PRS, the 30-year CRC risk was statistically significantly lower for women taking any MHT than for women not taking any MHT, 3.7% (3.3%-4.0%) vs 6.1% (5.7%-6.5%) (difference 2.4%, P-value = 1.83 × 10-14); these differences were also statistically significant but smaller in magnitude in the lowest PRS quartile, 1.6% (1.4%-1.8%) vs 2.2% (1.9%-2.4%) (difference 0.6%, P-value = 1.01 × 10-3), indicating 4 times greater reduction in absolute risk associated with any MHT use in the highest compared to the lowest quartile of genetic CRC risk.

CONCLUSIONS

MHT use has a greater impact on the reduction of CRC risk for women at higher genetic risk. These findings have implications for the development of risk prediction models for CRC and potentially for the consideration of genetic information in the risk-benefit assessment of MHT use.

Fine-mapping analysis including over 254,000 East Asian and European descendants identifies 136 putative colorectal cancer susceptibility genes

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified more than 200 common genetic variants independently associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, but the causal variants and target genes are mostly unknown. We sought to fine-map all known CRC risk loci using GWAS data from 100,204 cases and 154,587 controls of East Asian and European ancestry. Our stepwise conditional analyses revealed 238 independent association signals of CRC risk, each with a set of credible causal variants (CCVs), of which 28 signals had a single CCV. Our cis-eQTL/mQTL and colocalization analyses using colorectal tissue-specific transcriptome and methylome data separately from 1299 and 321 individuals, along with functional genomic investigation, uncovered 136 putative CRC susceptibility genes, including 56 genes not previously reported. Analyses of single-cell RNA-seq data from colorectal tissues revealed 17 putative CRC susceptibility genes with distinct expression patterns in specific cell types. Analyses of whole exome sequencing data provided additional support for several target genes identified in this study as CRC susceptibility genes. Enrichment analyses of the 136 genes uncover pathways not previously linked to CRC risk. Our study substantially expanded association signals for CRC and provided additional insight into the biological mechanisms underlying CRC development.

Systemic inflammation, the peripheral blood transcriptome and primary melanoma

Peripheral blood transcriptomes from 383 newly-diagnosed melanoma patients were subjected to differential gene expression analysis. The hypotheses were that impaired systemic immunity is associated with poorer prognosis (thicker tumors and fewer tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs)) and evidence of systemic inflammation (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and fibrinogen levels). Higher fibrinogen levels were associated with thicker primaries. In single gene analysis hsCRP levels were significantly associated with higher blood CD274 expression, (coding for PD-L1), but each was independently prognostic, with hsCRP associated with increased mortality, and higher CD274 protective, independent of age. Pathway analysis identified downregulation of immune cell signalling pathways in the blood of people with thicker tumors and notable upregulation of STAT1 in people with brisk TILs. Transcriptomic data provided evidence for increased NFB signalling with higher inflammatory markers but with reduction in expression of HLA class II molecules and higher CD274 suggesting that aberrant systemic inflammation is a significant mediator of reduced immune function in melanoma. In summary, transcriptomic data revealed evidence of reduced immune function in patients with thicker tumors and fewer TILs, at diagnosis. Inflammatory markers were associated with thicker primaries and independently with death from melanoma suggesting that systemic inflammation contributes to that reduced immune function.

Immune subtyping of melanoma whole slide images using multiple instance learning

Determining early-stage prognostic markers and stratifying patients for effective treatment are two key challenges for improving outcomes for melanoma patients. Previous studies have used tumour transcriptome data to stratify patients into immune subgroups, which were associated with differential melanoma specific survival and potential predictive biomarkers. However, acquiring transcriptome data is a time-consuming and costly process. Moreover, it is not routinely used in the current clinical workflow. Here, we attempt to overcome this by developing deep learning models to classify gigapixel haematoxylin and eosin (H&E) stained pathology slides, which are well established in clinical workflows, into these immune subgroups. We systematically assess six different multiple instance learning (MIL) frameworks, using five different image resolutions and three different feature extraction methods. We show that pathology-specific self-supervised models using 10x resolution patches generate superior representations for the classification of immune subtypes. In addition, in a primary melanoma dataset, we achieve a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.80 for classifying histopathology images into 'high' or 'low immune' subgroups and a mean AUC of 0.82 in an independent TCGA melanoma dataset. Furthermore, we show that these models are able to stratify patients into 'high' and 'low immune' subgroups with significantly different melanoma specific survival outcomes (log rank test, P< 0.005). We anticipate that MIL methods will allow us to find new biomarkers of high importance, act as a tool for clinicians to infer the immune landscape of tumours and stratify patients, without needing to carry out additional expensive genetic tests.

Genome-Wide Gene-Environment Interaction Analyses to Understand the Relationship between Red Meat and Processed Meat Intake and Colorectal Cancer Risk

BACKGROUND

High red meat and/or processed meat consumption are established colorectal cancer risk factors. We conducted a genome-wide gene-environment (GxE) interaction analysis to identify genetic variants that may modify these associations.

METHODS

A pooled sample of 29,842 colorectal cancer cases and 39,635 controls of European ancestry from 27 studies were included. Quantiles for red meat and processed meat intake were constructed from harmonized questionnaire data. Genotyping arrays were imputed to the Haplotype Reference Consortium. Two-step EDGE and joint tests of GxE interaction were utilized in our genome-wide scan.

RESULTS

Meta-analyses confirmed positive associations between increased consumption of red meat and processed meat with colorectal cancer risk [per quartile red meat OR = 1.30; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.21-1.41; processed meat OR = 1.40; 95% CI = 1.20-1.63]. Two significant genome-wide GxE interactions for red meat consumption were found. Joint GxE tests revealed the rs4871179 SNP in chromosome 8 (downstream of HAS2); greater than median of consumption ORs = 1.38 (95% CI = 1.29-1.46), 1.20 (95% CI = 1.12-1.27), and 1.07 (95% CI = 0.95-1.19) for CC, CG, and GG, respectively. The two-step EDGE method identified the rs35352860 SNP in chromosome 18 (SMAD7 intron); greater than median of consumption ORs = 1.18 (95% CI = 1.11-1.24), 1.35 (95% CI = 1.26-1.44), and 1.46 (95% CI = 1.26-1.69) for CC, CT, and TT, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We propose two novel biomarkers that support the role of meat consumption with an increased risk of colorectal cancer.

IMPACT

The reported GxE interactions may explain the increased risk of colorectal cancer in certain population subgroups.

Genome-wide association studies and Mendelian randomization analyses provide insights into the causes of early-onset colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

The incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC; diagnosed <50 years of age) is rising globally; however, the causes underlying this trend are largely unknown. CRC has strong genetic and environmental determinants, yet common genetic variants and causal modifiable risk factors underlying EOCRC are unknown. We conducted the first EOCRC-specific genome-wide association study (GWAS) and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to explore germline genetic and causal modifiable risk factors associated with EOCRC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We conducted a GWAS meta-analysis of 6176 EOCRC cases and 65 829 controls from the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO), the Colorectal Transdisciplinary Study (CORECT), the Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR), and the UK Biobank. We then used the EOCRC GWAS to investigate 28 modifiable risk factors using two-sample MR.

RESULTS

We found two novel risk loci for EOCRC at 1p34.1 and 4p15.33, which were not previously associated with CRC risk. We identified a deleterious coding variant (rs36053993, G396D) at polyposis-associated DNA repair gene MUTYH (odds ratio 1.80, 95% confidence interval 1.47-2.22) but show that most of the common genetic susceptibility was from noncoding signals enriched in epigenetic markers present in gastrointestinal tract cells. We identified new EOCRC-susceptibility genes, and in addition to pathways such as transforming growth factor (TGF) β, suppressor of Mothers Against Decapentaplegic (SMAD), bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) and phosphatidylinositol kinase (PI3K) signaling, our study highlights a role for insulin signaling and immune/infection-related pathways in EOCRC. In our MR analyses, we found novel evidence of probable causal associations for higher levels of body size and metabolic factors-such as body fat percentage, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, basal metabolic rate, and fasting insulin-higher alcohol drinking, and lower education attainment with increased EOCRC risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Our novel findings indicate inherited susceptibility to EOCRC and suggest modifiable lifestyle and metabolic targets that could also be used to risk-stratify individuals for personalized screening strategies or other interventions.

Observational and genetic associations between cardiorespiratory fitness and cancer: a UK Biobank and international consortia study

BACKGROUND

The association of fitness with cancer risk is not clear.

METHODS

We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk of lung, colorectal, endometrial, breast, and prostate cancer in a subset of UK Biobank participants who completed a submaximal fitness test in 2009-12 (N = 72,572). We also investigated relationships using two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR), odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using the inverse-variance weighted method.

RESULTS

After a median of 11 years of follow-up, 4290 cancers of interest were diagnosed. A 3.5 ml O2⋅min-1⋅kg-1 total-body mass increase in fitness (equivalent to 1 metabolic equivalent of task (MET), approximately 0.5 standard deviation (SD)) was associated with lower risks of endometrial (HR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.73-0.89), colorectal (0.94, 0.90-0.99), and breast cancer (0.96, 0.92-0.99). In MR analyses, a 0.5 SD increase in genetically predicted O2⋅min-1⋅kg-1 fat-free mass was associated with a lower risk of breast cancer (OR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.86-0.98). After adjusting for adiposity, both the observational and genetic associations were attenuated.

DISCUSSION

Higher fitness levels may reduce risks of endometrial, colorectal, and breast cancer, though relationships with adiposity are complex and may mediate these relationships. Increasing fitness, including via changes in body composition, may be an effective strategy for cancer prevention.

Combining Asian and European genome-wide association studies of colorectal cancer improves risk prediction across racial and ethnic populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have great potential to guide precision colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention by identifying those at higher risk to undertake targeted screening. However, current PRS using European ancestry data have sub-optimal performance in non-European ancestry populations, limiting their utility among these populations. Towards addressing this deficiency, we expand PRS development for CRC by incorporating Asian ancestry data (21,731 cases; 47,444 controls) into European ancestry training datasets (78,473 cases; 107,143 controls). The AUC estimates (95% CI) of PRS are 0.63(0.62-0.64), 0.59(0.57-0.61), 0.62(0.60-0.63), and 0.65(0.63-0.66) in independent datasets including 1681-3651 cases and 8696-115,105 controls of Asian, Black/African American, Latinx/Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White, respectively. They are significantly better than the European-centric PRS in all four major US racial and ethnic groups (p-values < 0.05). Further inclusion of non-European ancestry populations, especially Black/African American and Latinx/Hispanic, is needed to improve the risk prediction and enhance equity in applying PRS in clinical practice.

Probing the diabetes and colorectal cancer relationship using gene - environment interaction analyses

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is an established risk factor for colorectal cancer. However, the mechanisms underlying this relationship still require investigation and it is not known if the association is modified by genetic variants. To address these questions, we undertook a genome-wide gene-environment interaction analysis.

METHODS

We used data from 3 genetic consortia (CCFR, CORECT, GECCO; 31,318 colorectal cancer cases/41,499 controls) and undertook genome-wide gene-environment interaction analyses with colorectal cancer risk, including interaction tests of genetics(G)xdiabetes (1-degree of freedom; d.f.) and joint testing of Gxdiabetes, G-colorectal cancer association (2-d.f. joint test) and G-diabetes correlation (3-d.f. joint test).

RESULTS

Based on the joint tests, we found that the association of diabetes with colorectal cancer risk is modified by loci on chromosomes 8q24.11 (rs3802177, SLC30A8 - ORAA: 1.62, 95% CI: 1.34-1.96; ORAG: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.30-1.54; ORGG: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.13-1.31; p-value3-d.f.: 5.46 × 10-11) and 13q14.13 (rs9526201, LRCH1 - ORGG: 2.11, 95% CI: 1.56-2.83; ORGA: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.38-1.68; ORAA: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.06-1.21; p-value2-d.f.: 7.84 × 10-09).

DISCUSSION

These results suggest that variation in genes related to insulin signaling (SLC30A8) and immune function (LRCH1) may modify the association of diabetes with colorectal cancer risk and provide novel insights into the biology underlying the diabetes and colorectal cancer relationship.

A Genetic Locus within the FMN1/GREM1 Gene Region Interacts with Body Mass Index in Colorectal Cancer Risk

Colorectal cancer risk can be impacted by genetic, environmental, and lifestyle factors, including diet and obesity. Gene-environment interactions (G × E) can provide biological insights into the effects of obesity on colorectal cancer risk. Here, we assessed potential genome-wide G × E interactions between body mass index (BMI) and common SNPs for colorectal cancer risk using data from 36,415 colorectal cancer cases and 48,451 controls from three international colorectal cancer consortia (CCFR, CORECT, and GECCO). The G × E tests included the conventional logistic regression using multiplicative terms (one degree of freedom, 1DF test), the two-step EDGE method, and the joint 3DF test, each of which is powerful for detecting G × E interactions under specific conditions. BMI was associated with higher colorectal cancer risk. The two-step approach revealed a statistically significant G×BMI interaction located within the Formin 1/Gremlin 1 (FMN1/GREM1) gene region (rs58349661). This SNP was also identified by the 3DF test, with a suggestive statistical significance in the 1DF test. Among participants with the CC genotype of rs58349661, overweight and obesity categories were associated with higher colorectal cancer risk, whereas null associations were observed across BMI categories in those with the TT genotype. Using data from three large international consortia, this study discovered a locus in the FMN1/GREM1 gene region that interacts with BMI on the association with colorectal cancer risk. Further studies should examine the potential mechanisms through which this locus modifies the etiologic link between obesity and colorectal cancer.

SIGNIFICANCE

This gene-environment interaction analysis revealed a genetic locus in FMN1/GREM1 that interacts with body mass index in colorectal cancer risk, suggesting potential implications for precision prevention strategies.

Population-based analysis of POT1 variants in a cutaneous melanoma case-control cohort

Pathogenic germline variants in the protection of telomeres 1 gene (POT1) have been associated with predisposition to a range of tumour types, including melanoma, glioma, leukaemia and cardiac angiosarcoma. We sequenced all coding exons of the POT1 gene in 2928 European-descent melanoma cases and 3298 controls, identifying 43 protein-changing genetic variants. We performed POT1-telomere binding assays for all missense and stop-gained variants, finding nine variants that impair or disrupt protein-telomere complex formation, and we further define the role of variants in the regulation of telomere length and complex formation through molecular dynamics simulations. We determine that POT1 coding variants are a minor contributor to melanoma burden in the general population, with only about 0.5% of melanoma cases carrying germline pathogenic variants in this gene, but should be screened in individuals with a strong family history of melanoma and/or multiple malignancies.

Genome-wide analyses characterize shared heritability among cancers and identify novel cancer susceptibility regions

BACKGROUND

The shared inherited genetic contribution to risk of different cancers is not fully known. In this study, we leverage results from 12 cancer genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to quantify pairwise genome-wide genetic correlations across cancers and identify novel cancer susceptibility loci.

METHODS

We collected GWAS summary statistics for 12 solid cancers based on 376 759 participants with cancer and 532 864 participants without cancer of European ancestry. The included cancer types were breast, colorectal, endometrial, esophageal, glioma, head and neck, lung, melanoma, ovarian, pancreatic, prostate, and renal cancers. We conducted cross-cancer GWAS and transcriptome-wide association studies to discover novel cancer susceptibility loci. Finally, we assessed the extent of variant-specific pleiotropy among cancers at known and newly identified cancer susceptibility loci.

RESULTS

We observed widespread but modest genome-wide genetic correlations across cancers. In cross-cancer GWAS and transcriptome-wide association studies, we identified 15 novel cancer susceptibility loci. Additionally, we identified multiple variants at 77 distinct loci with strong evidence of being associated with at least 2 cancer types by testing for pleiotropy at known cancer susceptibility loci.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, these results suggest that some genetic risk variants are shared among cancers, though much of cancer heritability is cancer-specific and thus tissue-specific. The increase in statistical power associated with larger sample sizes in cross-disease analysis allows for the identification of novel susceptibility regions. Future studies incorporating data on multiple cancer types are likely to identify additional regions associated with the risk of multiple cancer types.

Association of germline variants in telomere maintenance genes (POT1, TERF2IP, ACD, and TERT) with spitzoid morphology in familial melanoma: A multi-center case series

Background

Spitzoid morphology in familial melanoma has been associated with germline variants in POT1, a telomere maintenance gene (TMG), suggesting a link between telomere biology and spitzoid differentiation.

Objective

To assess if familial melanoma cases associated with germline variants in TMG (POT1, ACD, TERF2IP, and TERT) commonly exhibit spitzoid morphology.

Methods

In this case series, melanomas were classified as having spitzoid morphology if at least 3 of 4 dermatopathologists reported this finding in ≥25% of tumor cells. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) of spitzoid morphology compared to familial melanomas from unmatched noncarriers that were previously reviewed by a National Cancer Institute dermatopathologist.

Results

Spitzoid morphology was observed in 77% (23 of 30), 75% (3 of 4), 50% (2 of 4), and 50% (1 of 2) of melanomas from individuals with germline variants in POT1, TERF2IP, ACD, and TERT, respectively. Compared to noncarriers (n = 139 melanomas), POT1 carriers (OR = 225.1, 95% confidence interval: 51.7-980.5; P < .001) and individuals with TERF2IP, ACD, and TERT variants (OR = 82.4, 95% confidence interval: 21.3-494.6; P < .001) had increased odds of spitzoid morphology.

Limitations

Findings may not be generalizable to nonfamilial melanoma cases.

Conclusion

Spitzoid morphology in familial melanoma could suggest germline alteration of TMG.

Validation of a Genetic-Enhanced Risk Prediction Model for Colorectal Cancer in a Large Community-Based Cohort

BACKGROUND

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) which summarize individuals' genetic risk profile may enhance targeted colorectal cancer screening. A critical step towards clinical implementation is rigorous external validations in large community-based cohorts. This study externally validated a PRS-enhanced colorectal cancer risk model comprising 140 known colorectal cancer loci to provide a comprehensive assessment on prediction performance.

METHODS

The model was developed using 20,338 individuals and externally validated in a community-based cohort (n = 85,221). We validated predicted 5-year absolute colorectal cancer risk, including calibration using expected-to-observed case ratios (E/O) and calibration plots, and discriminatory accuracy using time-dependent AUC. The PRS-related improvement in AUC, sensitivity and specificity were assessed in individuals of age 45 to 74 years (screening-eligible age group) and 40 to 49 years with no endoscopy history (younger-age group).

RESULTS

In European-ancestral individuals, the predicted 5-year risk calibrated well [E/O = 1.01; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.91-1.13] and had high discriminatory accuracy (AUC = 0.73; 95% CI, 0.71-0.76). Adding the PRS to a model with age, sex, family and endoscopy history improved the 5-year AUC by 0.06 (P < 0.001) and 0.14 (P = 0.05) in the screening-eligible age and younger-age groups, respectively. Using a risk-threshold of 5-year SEER colorectal cancer incidence rate at age 50 years, adding the PRS had a similar sensitivity but improved the specificity by 11% (P < 0.001) in the screening-eligible age group. In the younger-age group it improved the sensitivity by 27% (P = 0.04) with similar specificity.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed PRS-enhanced model provides a well-calibrated 5-year colorectal cancer risk prediction and improves discriminatory accuracy in the external cohort.

IMPACT

The proposed model has potential utility in risk-stratified colorectal cancer prevention.

Genome-wide Interaction Study with Smoking for Colorectal Cancer Risk Identifies Novel Genetic Loci Related to Tumor Suppression, Inflammation, and Immune Response

BACKGROUND

Tobacco smoking is an established risk factor for colorectal cancer. However, genetically defined population subgroups may have increased susceptibility to smoking-related effects on colorectal cancer.

METHODS

A genome-wide interaction scan was performed including 33,756 colorectal cancer cases and 44,346 controls from three genetic consortia.

RESULTS

Evidence of an interaction was observed between smoking status (ever vs. never smokers) and a locus on 3p12.1 (rs9880919, P = 4.58 × 10-8), with higher associated risk in subjects carrying the GG genotype [OR, 1.25; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.20-1.30] compared with the other genotypes (OR <1.17 for GA and AA). Among ever smokers, we observed interactions between smoking intensity (increase in 10 cigarettes smoked per day) and two loci on 6p21.33 (rs4151657, P = 1.72 × 10-8) and 8q24.23 (rs7005722, P = 2.88 × 10-8). Subjects carrying the rs4151657 TT genotype showed higher risk (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.09-1.16) compared with the other genotypes (OR <1.06 for TC and CC). Similarly, higher risk was observed among subjects carrying the rs7005722 AA genotype (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.07-1.28) compared with the other genotypes (OR <1.13 for AC and CC). Functional annotation revealed that SNPs in 3p12.1 and 6p21.33 loci were located in regulatory regions, and were associated with expression levels of nearby genes. Genetic models predicting gene expression revealed that smoking parameters were associated with lower colorectal cancer risk with higher expression levels of CADM2 (3p12.1) and ATF6B (6p21.33).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study identified novel genetic loci that may modulate the risk for colorectal cancer of smoking status and intensity, linked to tumor suppression and immune response.

IMPACT

These findings can guide potential prevention treatments.

Combining Asian-European Genome-Wide Association Studies of Colorectal Cancer Improves Risk Prediction Across Race and Ethnicity

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have great potential to guide precision colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention by identifying those at higher risk to undertake targeted screening. However, current PRS using European ancestry data have sub-optimal performance in non-European ancestry populations, limiting their utility among these populations. Towards addressing this deficiency, we expanded PRS development for CRC by incorporating Asian ancestry data (21,731 cases; 47,444 controls) into European ancestry training datasets (78,473 cases; 107,143 controls). The AUC estimates (95% CI) of PRS were 0.63(0.62-0.64), 0.59(0.57-0.61), 0.62(0.60-0.63), and 0.65(0.63-0.66) in independent datasets including 1,681-3,651 cases and 8,696-115,105 controls of Asian, Black/African American, Latinx/Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White, respectively. They were significantly better than the European-centric PRS in all four major US racial and ethnic groups (p-values<0.05). Further inclusion of non-European ancestry populations, especially Black/African American and Latinx/Hispanic, is needed to improve the risk prediction and enhance equity in applying PRS in clinical practice.

Mutually exclusive genetic interactions and gene essentiality shape the genomic landscape of primary melanoma

Melanoma is a heterogenous malignancy with an unpredictable clinical course. Most patients who present in the clinic are diagnosed with primary melanoma, yet large-scale sequencing efforts have focused primarily on metastatic disease. In this study we sequence-profiled 524 American Joint Committee on Cancer Stage I-III primary tumours. Our analysis of these data reveals recurrent driver mutations, mutually exclusive genetic interactions, where two genes were never or rarely co-mutated, and an absence of co-occurring genetic events. Further, we intersected copy number calls from our primary melanoma data with whole-genome CRISPR screening data to identify the transcription factor interferon regulatory factor 4 (IRF4) as a melanoma-associated dependency. © 2022 The Authors. The Journal of Pathology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland.

Higher polygenic risk for melanoma is associated with improved survival in a high ultraviolet radiation setting

BACKGROUND

The role of germline genetic factors in determining survival from cutaneous melanoma (CM) is not well understood.

OBJECTIVE

To perform a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis of melanoma-specific survival (MSS), and test whether a CM-susceptibility polygenic risk score (PRS) is associated with MSS.

METHODS

We conducted two Cox proportional-hazard GWAS of MSS using data from the Melanoma Institute Australia, a high ultraviolet (UV) radiation setting (MIA; 5,762 patients with melanoma; 800 melanoma deaths) and UK Biobank (UKB: 5,220 patients with melanoma; 241 melanoma deaths), and combined them in a fixed-effects meta-analysis. Significant (P < 5 × 10-8) results were investigated in the Leeds Melanoma Cohort (LMC; 1,947 patients with melanoma; 370 melanoma deaths). We also developed a CM-susceptibility PRS using a large independent GWAS meta-analysis (23,913 cases, 342,870 controls). The PRS was tested for an association with MSS in the MIA and UKB cohorts.

RESULTS

Two loci were significantly associated with MSS in the meta-analysis of MIA and UKB with lead SNPs rs41309643 (G allele frequency 1.6%, HR = 2.09, 95%CI = 1.61-2.71, P = 2.08 × 10-8) on chromosome 1, and rs75682113 (C allele frequency 1.8%, HR = 2.38, 95%CI = 1.77-3.21, P = 1.07 × 10-8) on chromosome 7. While neither SNP replicated in the LMC, rs75682113 was significantly associated in the combined discovery and replication sets. After adjusting for age at diagnosis, sex and the first ten principal components, a one standard deviation increase in the CM-susceptibility PRS was associated with improved MSS in the discovery meta-analysis (HR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.83-0.94, P = 6.93 × 10-5; I2 = 88%). However, this was only driven by the high UV setting cohort (MIA HR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.78-0.90).

CONCLUSION

We found two loci potentially associated with MSS. Increased genetic susceptibility to develop CM is associated with improved MSS in a high UV setting.

Association Study between Polymorphisms in DNA Methylation-Related Genes and Testicular Germ Cell Tumor Risk

BACKGROUND

Testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT), histologically classified as seminomas and nonseminomas, are believed to arise from primordial gonocytes, with the maturation process blocked when they are subjected to DNA methylation reprogramming. SNPs in DNA methylation machinery and folate-dependent one-carbon metabolism genes have been postulated to influence the proper establishment of DNA methylation.

METHODS

In this pathway-focused investigation, we evaluated the association between 273 selected tag SNPs from 28 DNA methylation-related genes and TGCT risk. We carried out association analysis at individual SNP and gene-based level using summary statistics from the Genome Wide Association Study meta-analysis recently conducted by the international Testicular Cancer Consortium on 10,156 TGCT cases and 179,683 controls.

RESULTS

In individual SNP analyses, seven SNPs, four mapping within MTHFR, were associated with TGCT risk after correction for multiple testing (q ≤ 0.05). Queries of public databases showed that three of these SNPs were associated with MTHFR changes in enzymatic activity (rs1801133) or expression level in testis tissue (rs12121543, rs1476413). Gene-based analyses revealed MTHFR (q = 8.4 × 10-4), methyl-CpG-binding protein 2 (MECP2; q = 2 × 10-3), and ZBTB4 (q = 0.03) as the top TGCT-associated genes. Stratifying by tumor histology, four MTHFR SNPs were associated with seminoma. In gene-based analysis MTHFR was associated with risk of seminoma (q = 2.8 × 10-4), but not with nonseminomatous tumors (q = 0.22).

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic variants within MTHFR, potentially having an impact on the DNA methylation pattern, are associated with TGCT risk.

IMPACT

This finding suggests that TGCT pathogenesis could be associated with the folate cycle status, and this relation could be partly due to hereditary factors.

Cancer Prevention with Resistant Starch in Lynch Syndrome Patients in the CAPP2-Randomized Placebo Controlled Trial: Planned 10-Year Follow-up

ABSTRACT

The CAPP2 trial investigated the long-term effects of aspirin and resistant starch on cancer incidence in patients with Lynch syndrome (LS). Participants with LS were randomized double-blind to 30 g resistant starch (RS) daily or placebo for up to 4 years. We present long-term cancer outcomes based on the planned 10-year follow-up from recruitment, supplemented by National Cancer Registry data to 20 years in England, Wales, and Finland. Overall, 463 participants received RS and 455 participants received placebo. After up to 20 years follow-up, there was no difference in colorectal cancer incidence (n = 52 diagnosed with colorectal cancer among those randomized to RS against n = 53 on placebo) but fewer participants had non-colorectal LS cancers in those randomized to RS (n = 27) compared with placebo (n = 48); intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis [HR, 0.54; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.33-0.86; P = 0.010]. In ITT analysis, allowing for multiple primary cancer diagnoses among participants by calculating incidence rate ratios (IRR) confirmed the protective effect of RS against non-colorectal cancer LS cancers (IRR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.32-0.84; P = 0.0075). These effects are particularly pronounced for cancers of the upper GI tract; 5 diagnoses in those on RS versus 21 diagnoses on placebo. The reduction in non-colorectal cancer LS cancers was detectable in the first 10 years and continued in the next decade. For colorectal cancer, ITT analysis showed no effect of RS on colorectal cancer risk (HR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.62-1.34; P = 0.63). There was no interaction between aspirin and RS treatments. In conclusion, 30 g daily RS appears to have a substantial protective effect against non-colorectal cancer cancers for patients with LS.

PREVENTION RELEVANCE

Regular bowel screening and aspirin reduce colorectal cancer among patients with LS but extracolonic cancers are difficult to detect and manage. This study suggests that RS reduces morbidity associated with extracolonic cancers. See related Spotlight, p. 557.

Defining novel causal SNPs and linked phenotypes at melanoma-associated loci

A number of genomic regions have been associated with melanoma risk through genome-wide association studies; however, the causal variants underlying the majority of these associations remain unknown. Here, we sequenced either the full locus or the functional regions including exons of 19 melanoma-associated loci in 1959 British melanoma cases and 737 controls. Variant filtering followed by Fisher's exact test analyses identified 66 variants associated with melanoma risk. Sequential conditional logistic regression identified the distinct haplotypes on which variants reside, and massively parallel reporter assays provided biological insights into how these variants influence gene function. We performed further analyses to link variants to melanoma risk phenotypes and assessed their association with melanoma-specific survival. Our analyses replicate previously known associations in the melanocortin 1 receptor (MC1R) and tyrosinase (TYR) loci, while identifying novel potentially causal variants at the MTAP/CDKN2A and CASP8 loci. These results improve our understanding of the architecture of melanoma risk and outcome.

Genome-Wide Interaction Analysis of Genetic Variants With Menopausal Hormone Therapy for Colorectal Cancer Risk

BACKGROUND

The use of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) may interact with genetic variants to influence colorectal cancer (CRC) risk.

METHODS

We conducted a genome-wide, gene-environment interaction between single nucleotide polymorphisms and the use of any MHT, estrogen only, and combined estrogen-progestogen therapy with CRC risk, among 28 486 postmenopausal women (11 519 CRC patients and 16 967 participants without CRC) from 38 studies, using logistic regression, 2-step method, and 2- or 3-degree-of-freedom joint test. A set-based score test was applied for rare genetic variants.

RESULTS

The use of any MHT, estrogen only and estrogen-progestogen were associated with a reduced CRC risk (odds ratio [OR] = 0.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.64 to 0.78; OR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.53 to 0.79; and OR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.59 to 0.90, respectively). The 2-step method identified a statistically significant interaction between a GRIN2B variant rs117868593 and MHT use, whereby MHT-associated CRC risk was statistically significantly reduced in women with the GG genotype (OR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.64 to 0.72) but not within strata of GC or CC genotypes. A statistically significant interaction between a DCBLD1 intronic variant at 6q22.1 (rs10782186) and MHT use was identified by the 2-degree-of-freedom joint test. The MHT-associated CRC risk was reduced with increasing number of rs10782186-C alleles, showing odds ratios of 0.78 (95% CI = 0.70 to 0.87) for TT, 0.68 (95% CI = 0.63 to 0.73) for TC, and 0.66 (95% CI = 0.60 to 0.74) for CC genotypes. In addition, 5 genes in rare variant analysis showed suggestive interactions with MHT (2-sided P < 1.2 × 10-4).

CONCLUSION

Genetic variants that modify the association between MHT and CRC risk were identified, offering new insights into pathways of CRC carcinogenesis and potential mechanisms involved.

Multi-Trait Genetic Analysis Identifies Autoimmune Loci Associated with Cutaneous Melanoma

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified a number of risk loci for cutaneous melanoma. Cutaneous melanoma shares overlapping genetic risk (genetic correlation) with a number of other traits, including its risk factors such as sunburn propensity. This genetic correlation can be exploited to identify additional cutaneous melanoma risk loci by multitrait analysis of GWAS (MTAG). We used bivariate linkage disequilibrium-score regression score regression to identify traits that are genetically correlated with clinically confirmed cutaneous melanoma and then used publicly available GWAS for these traits in a multitrait analysis of GWAS. Multitrait analysis of GWAS allows GWAS to be combined while accounting for sample overlap and incomplete genetic correlation. We identified a total of 74 genome-wide independent loci, 19 of them were not previously reported in the input cutaneous melanoma GWAS meta-analysis. Of these loci, 55 were replicated (P < 0.05/74, Bonferroni-corrected P-value in two independent cutaneous melanoma replication cohorts from Melanoma Institute Australia and 23andMe, Inc. Among the, to our knowledge, previously unreported cutaneous melanoma loci are ones that have also been associated with autoimmune traits including rs715199 near LPP and rs10858023 near AP4B1. Our analysis indicates genetic correlation between traits can be leveraged to identify new risk genes for cutaneous melanoma.

Beyond GWAS of Colorectal Cancer: Evidence of Interaction with Alcohol Consumption and Putative Causal Variant for the 10q24.2 Region

BACKGROUND

Currently known associations between common genetic variants and colorectal cancer explain less than half of its heritability of 25%. As alcohol consumption has a J-shape association with colorectal cancer risk, nondrinking and heavy drinking are both risk factors for colorectal cancer.

METHODS

Individual-level data was pooled from the Colon Cancer Family Registry, Colorectal Transdisciplinary Study, and Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium to compare nondrinkers (≤1 g/day) and heavy drinkers (>28 g/day) with light-to-moderate drinkers (1-28 g/day) in GxE analyses. To improve power, we implemented joint 2df and 3df tests and a novel two-step method that modifies the weighted hypothesis testing framework. We prioritized putative causal variants by predicting allelic effects using support vector machine models.

RESULTS

For nondrinking as compared with light-to-moderate drinking, the hybrid two-step approach identified 13 significant SNPs with pairwise r2 > 0.9 in the 10q24.2/COX15 region. When stratified by alcohol intake, the A allele of lead SNP rs2300985 has a dose-response increase in risk of colorectal cancer as compared with the G allele in light-to-moderate drinkers [OR for GA genotype = 1.11; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.06-1.17; OR for AA genotype = 1.22; 95% CI, 1.14-1.31], but not in nondrinkers or heavy drinkers. Among the correlated candidate SNPs in the 10q24.2/COX15 region, rs1318920 was predicted to disrupt an HNF4 transcription factor binding motif.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that the association with colorectal cancer in 10q24.2/COX15 observed in genome-wide association study is strongest in nondrinkers. We also identified rs1318920 as the putative causal regulatory variant for the region.

IMPACT

The study identifies multifaceted evidence of a possible functional effect for rs1318920.

Independent evaluation of melanoma polygenic risk scores in UK and Australian prospective cohorts

BACKGROUND

Previous studies suggest that polygenic risk scores (PRSs) may improve melanoma risk stratification. However, there has been limited independent validation of PRS-based risk prediction, particularly assessment of calibration (comparing predicted to observed risks).

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate PRS-based melanoma risk prediction in prospective UK and Australian cohorts with European ancestry.

METHODS

We analysed invasive melanoma incidence in the UK Biobank (UKB; n = 395 647, 1651 cases) and a case-cohort nested within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS, Australia; n = 4765, 303 cases). Three PRSs were evaluated: 68 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at 54 loci from a 2020 meta-analysis (PRS68), 50 SNPs significant in the 2020 meta-analysis excluding UKB (PRS50) and 45 SNPs at 21 loci known in 2018 (PRS45). Ten-year melanoma risks were calculated from population-level cancer registry data by age group and sex, with and without PRS adjustment.

RESULTS

Predicted absolute melanoma risks based on age and sex alone underestimated melanoma incidence in the UKB [ratio of expected/observed cases: E/O = 0·65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·62-0·68] and MCCS (E/O = 0·63, 95% CI 0·56-0·72). For UKB, calibration was improved by PRS adjustment, with PRS50-adjusted risks E/O = 0·91, 95% CI 0·87-0·95. The discriminative ability for PRS68- and PRS50-adjusted absolute risks was higher than for risks based on age and sex alone (Δ area under the curve 0·07-0·10, P < 0·0001), and higher than for PRS45-adjusted risks (Δ area under the curve 0·02-0·04, P < 0·001).

CONCLUSIONS

A PRS derived from a larger, more diverse meta-analysis improves risk prediction compared with an earlier PRS, and might help tailor melanoma prevention and early detection strategies to different risk levels. Recalibration of absolute risks may be necessary for application to specific populations.

Risk Stratification for Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer Using a Combination of Genetic and Environmental Risk Scores: An International Multi-Center Study

BACKGROUND

The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) among individuals aged younger than 50 years has been increasing. As screening guidelines lower the recommended age of screening initiation, concerns including the burden on screening capacity and costs have been recognized, suggesting that an individualized approach may be warranted. We developed risk prediction models for early-onset CRC that incorporate an environmental risk score (ERS), including 16 lifestyle and environmental factors, and a polygenic risk score (PRS) of 141 variants.

METHODS

Relying on risk score weights for ERS and PRS derived from studies of CRC at all ages, we evaluated risks for early-onset CRC in 3486 cases and 3890 controls aged younger than 50 years. Relative and absolute risks for early-onset CRC were assessed according to values of the ERS and PRS. The discriminatory performance of these scores was estimated using the covariate-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

Increasing values of ERS and PRS were associated with increasing relative risks for early-onset CRC (odds ratio per SD of ERS = 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.08 to 1.20; odds ratio per SD of PRS = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.51 to 1.68), both contributing to case-control discrimination (area under the curve = 0.631, 95% CI = 0.615 to 0.647). Based on absolute risks, we can expect 26 excess cases per 10 000 men and 21 per 10 000 women among those scoring at the 90th percentile for both risk scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Personal risk scores have the potential to identify individuals at differential relative and absolute risk for early-onset CRC. Improved discrimination may aid in targeted CRC screening of younger, high-risk individuals, potentially improving outcomes.

The Different Immune Profiles of Normal Colonic Mucosa in Cancer-Free Lynch Syndrome Carriers and Lynch Syndrome Colorectal Cancer Patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Owing to the high load of immunogenic frameshift neoantigens, tumors arising in individuals with Lynch syndrome (LS), the most common inherited colorectal cancer (CRC) syndrome, are characterized by a pronounced immune infiltration. However, the immune status of normal colorectal mucosa in LS is not well characterized. We assessed the immune infiltrate in tumor-distant normal colorectal mucosa from LS CRC patients, sporadic microsatellite-unstable (MSI) and microsatellite-stable (MSS) CRC patients, and cancer-free LS carriers.

METHODS

CD3-positive, FOXP3-positive, and CD8-positive T cells were quantified in, respectively, 219, 233, and 201 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) normal colonic mucosa tissue sections from CRC patients and cancer-free LS carriers and 26, 22, and 19 LS CRCs. CD3-positive T cells were also quantified in an independent cohort of 97 FFPE normal rectal mucosa tissue sections from LS carriers enrolled in the CAPP2 clinical trial. The expression of 770 immune-relevant genes was analyzed in a subset of samples with the use of the NanoString nCounter platform.

RESULTS

LS normal mucosa specimens showed significantly elevated CD3-, FOXP3-, and CD8-positive T-cell densities compared with non-LS control specimens. Gene expression profiling and cluster analysis revealed distinct immune profiles in LS carrier mucosa with and without cancer manifestation. Long-term follow-up of LS carriers within the CAPP2 trial found a correlation between mucosal T-cell infiltrate and time to subsequent tumor occurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

LS carriers show elevated mucosal T-cell infiltration even in the absence of cancer. The normal mucosa immune profile may be a temporary or permanent tumor risk modifier in LS carriers.

Salicylic Acid and Risk of Colorectal Cancer: A Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization Study

Salicylic acid (SA) has observationally been shown to decrease colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. Aspirin (acetylsalicylic acid, that rapidly deacetylates to SA) is an effective primary and secondary chemopreventive agent. Through a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach, we aimed to address whether levels of SA affected CRC risk, stratifying by aspirin use. A two-sample MR analysis was performed using GWAS summary statistics of SA (INTERVAL and EPIC-Norfolk, N = 14,149) and CRC (CCFR, CORECT, GECCO and UK Biobank, 55,168 cases and 65,160 controls). The DACHS study (4410 cases and 3441 controls) was used for replication and stratification of aspirin-use. SNPs proxying SA were selected via three methods: (1) functional SNPs that influence the activity of aspirin-metabolising enzymes; (2) pathway SNPs present in enzymes' coding regions; and (3) genome-wide significant SNPs. We found no association between functional SNPs and SA levels. The pathway and genome-wide SNPs showed no association between SA and CRC risk (OR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.84-1.27 and OR: 1.08, 95% CI: 0.86-1.34, respectively). Results remained unchanged upon aspirin use stratification. We found little evidence to suggest that an SD increase in genetically predicted SA protects against CRC risk in the general population and upon stratification by aspirin use.

An Overview of Strategies for Detecting Genotype-Phenotype Associations Across Ancestrally Diverse Populations

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been very successful at identifying genetic variants influencing a large number of traits. Although the great majority of these studies have been performed in European-descent individuals, it has been recognised that including populations with differing ancestries enhances the potential for identifying causal SNPs due to their differing patterns of linkage disequilibrium. However, when individuals from distinct ethnicities are included in a GWAS, it is necessary to implement a number of control steps to ensure that the identified associations are real genotype-phenotype relationships. In this Review, we discuss the analyses that are required when performing multi-ethnic studies, including methods for determining ancestry at the global and local level for sample exclusion, controlling for ancestry in association testing, and post-GWAS interrogation methods such as genomic control and meta-analysis. We hope that this overview provides a primer for those researchers interested in including distinct populations in their studies.

Cell-type-specific meQTLs extend melanoma GWAS annotation beyond eQTLs and inform melanocyte gene-regulatory mechanisms

Although expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) have been powerful in identifying susceptibility genes from genome-wide association study (GWAS) findings, most trait-associated loci are not explained by eQTLs alone. Alternative QTLs, including DNA methylation QTLs (meQTLs), are emerging, but cell-type-specific meQTLs using cells of disease origin have been lacking. Here, we established an meQTL dataset by using primary melanocytes from 106 individuals and identified 1,497,502 significant cis-meQTLs. Multi-QTL colocalization with meQTLs, eQTLs, and mRNA splice-junction QTLs from the same individuals together with imputed methylome-wide and transcriptome-wide association studies identified candidate susceptibility genes at 63% of melanoma GWAS loci. Among the three molecular QTLs, meQTLs were the single largest contributor. To compare melanocyte meQTLs with those from malignant melanomas, we performed meQTL analysis on skin cutaneous melanomas from The Cancer Genome Atlas (n = 444). A substantial proportion of meQTL probes (45.9%) in primary melanocytes is preserved in melanomas, while a smaller fraction of eQTL genes is preserved (12.7%). Integration of melanocyte multi-QTLs and melanoma meQTLs identified candidate susceptibility genes at 72% of melanoma GWAS loci. Beyond GWAS annotation, meQTL-eQTL colocalization in melanocytes suggested that 841 unique genes potentially share a causal variant with a nearby methylation probe in melanocytes. Finally, melanocyte trans-meQTLs identified a hotspot for rs12203592, a cis-eQTL of a transcription factor, IRF4, with 131 candidate target CpGs. Motif enrichment and IRF4 ChIP-seq analysis demonstrated that these target CpGs are enriched in IRF4 binding sites, suggesting an IRF4-mediated regulatory network. Our study highlights the utility of cell-type-specific meQTLs.

Identification of 22 susceptibility loci associated with testicular germ cell tumors

Testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) are the most common tumor in young white men and have a high heritability. In this study, the international Testicular Cancer Consortium assemble 10,156 and 179,683 men with and without TGCT, respectively, for a genome-wide association study. This meta-analysis identifies 22 TGCT susceptibility loci, bringing the total to 78, which account for 44% of disease heritability. Men with a polygenic risk score (PRS) in the 95th percentile have a 6.8-fold increased risk of TGCT compared to men with median scores. Among men with independent TGCT risk factors such as cryptorchidism, the PRS may guide screening decisions with the goal of reducing treatment-related complications causing long-term morbidity in survivors. These findings emphasize the interconnected nature of two known pathways that promote TGCT susceptibility: male germ cell development within its somatic niche and regulation of chromosomal division and structure, and implicate an additional biological pathway, mRNA translation.

Circulating Levels of Testosterone, Sex Hormone Binding Globulin and Colorectal Cancer Risk: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analyses

BACKGROUND

Epidemiologic studies evaluating associations between sex steroid hormones and colorectal cancer risk have yielded inconsistent results. To elucidate the role of circulating levels of testosterone, and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) in colorectal cancer risk, we conducted observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses.

METHODS

The observational analyses included 333,530 participants enrolled in the UK Biobank with testosterone and SHBG measured. HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. For MR analyses, genetic variants robustly associated with hormone levels were identified and their association with colorectal cancer (42,866 cases/42,752 controls) was examined using two-sample MR.

RESULTS

In the observational analysis, there was little evidence that circulating levels of total testosterone were associated with colorectal cancer risk; the MR analyses showed a greater risk for women (OR per 1-SD = 1.09; 95% CI, 1.01-1.17), although pleiotropy may have biased this result. Higher SHBG concentrations were associated with greater colorectal cancer risk for women (HR per 1-SD = 1.16; 95% CI, 1.05-1.29), but was unsupported by the MR analysis. There was little evidence of associations between free testosterone and colorectal cancer in observational and MR analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Circulating concentrations of sex hormones are unlikely to be causally associated with colorectal cancer. Additional experimental studies are required to better understand the possible role of androgens in colorectal cancer development.

IMPACT

Our results from large-scale analyses provide little evidence for sex hormone pathways playing a causal role in colorectal cancer development.See related commentary by Hang and Shen, p. 1302.

Genetic architectures of proximal and distal colorectal cancer are partly distinct

OBJECTIVE

An understanding of the etiologic heterogeneity of colorectal cancer (CRC) is critical for improving precision prevention, including individualized screening recommendations and the discovery of novel drug targets and repurposable drug candidates for chemoprevention. Known differences in molecular characteristics and environmental risk factors among tumors arising in different locations of the colorectum suggest partly distinct mechanisms of carcinogenesis. The extent to which the contribution of inherited genetic risk factors for CRC differs by anatomical subsite of the primary tumor has not been examined.

DESIGN

To identify new anatomical subsite-specific risk loci, we performed genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analyses including data of 48 214 CRC cases and 64 159 controls of European ancestry. We characterised effect heterogeneity at CRC risk loci using multinomial modelling.

RESULTS

We identified 13 loci that reached genome-wide significance (p<5×10-8) and that were not reported by previous GWASs for overall CRC risk. Multiple lines of evidence support candidate genes at several of these loci. We detected substantial heterogeneity between anatomical subsites. Just over half (61) of 109 known and new risk variants showed no evidence for heterogeneity. In contrast, 22 variants showed association with distal CRC (including rectal cancer), but no evidence for association or an attenuated association with proximal CRC. For two loci, there was strong evidence for effects confined to proximal colon cancer.

CONCLUSION

Genetic architectures of proximal and distal CRC are partly distinct. Studies of risk factors and mechanisms of carcinogenesis, and precision prevention strategies should take into consideration the anatomical subsite of the tumour.

Genetically predicted circulating concentrations of micronutrients and risk of colorectal cancer among individuals of European descent: a Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

The literature on associations of circulating concentrations of minerals and vitamins with risk of colorectal cancer is limited and inconsistent. Evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to support the efficacy of dietary modification or nutrient supplementation for colorectal cancer prevention is also limited.

OBJECTIVES

To complement observational and RCT findings, we investigated associations of genetically predicted concentrations of 11 micronutrients (β-carotene, calcium, copper, folate, iron, magnesium, phosphorus, selenium, vitamin B-6, vitamin B-12, and zinc) with colorectal cancer risk using Mendelian randomization (MR).

METHODS

Two-sample MR was conducted using 58,221 individuals with colorectal cancer and 67,694 controls from the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium, Colorectal Cancer Transdisciplinary Study, and Colon Cancer Family Registry. Inverse variance-weighted MR analyses were performed with sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of potential violations of MR assumptions.

RESULTS

Nominally significant associations were noted for genetically predicted iron concentration and higher risk of colon cancer [ORs per SD (ORSD): 1.08; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.17; P value = 0.05] and similarly for proximal colon cancer, and for vitamin B-12 concentration and higher risk of colorectal cancer (ORSD: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.21; P value = 0.01) and similarly for colon cancer. A nominally significant association was also noted for genetically predicted selenium concentration and lower risk of colon cancer (ORSD: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.00; P value = 0.05) and similarly for distal colon cancer. These associations were robust to sensitivity analyses. Nominally significant inverse associations were observed for zinc and risk of colorectal and distal colon cancers, but sensitivity analyses could not be performed. None of these findings survived correction for multiple testing. Genetically predicted concentrations of β-carotene, calcium, copper, folate, magnesium, phosphorus, and vitamin B-6 were not associated with disease risk.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest possible causal associations of circulating iron and vitamin B-12 (positively) and selenium (inversely) with risk of colon cancer.

Risk factors for melanoma by anatomical site: an evaluation of aetiological heterogeneity

BACKGROUND

Melanoma aetiology has been proposed to have two pathways, which are determined by naevi and type of sun exposure and related to the anatomical site where melanoma develops.

OBJECTIVES

We examined associations with melanoma by anatomical site for a comprehensive set of risk factors including pigmentary and naevus phenotypes, ultraviolet radiation exposure and polygenic risk.

METHODS

We analysed harmonized data from 2617 people with incident first invasive melanoma and 975 healthy controls recruited through two population-based case-control studies in Australia and the UK. Questionnaire data were collected by interview using a single protocol, and pathway-specific polygenic risk scores were derived from DNA samples. We estimated adjusted odds ratios using unconditional logistic regression that compared melanoma cases at each anatomical site with all controls.

RESULTS

When cases were compared with control participants, there were stronger associations for many naevi vs. no naevi for melanomas on the trunk, and upper and lower limbs than on the head and neck (P-heterogeneity < 0·001). Very fair skin (vs. olive/brown skin) was more weakly related to melanoma on the trunk than to melanomas at other sites (P-heterogeneity = 0·04). There was no significant difference by anatomical site for polygenic risk. Increased weekday sun exposure was positively associated with melanoma on the head and neck but not on other sites.

CONCLUSIONS

We found evidence of aetiological heterogeneity for melanoma, supporting the dual pathway hypothesis. These findings enhance understanding of risk factors for melanoma and can guide prevention and skin examination education and practices.

Nongenetic Determinants of Risk for Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer

Background

Incidence of early-onset (younger than 50 years of age) colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing in many countries. Thus, elucidating the role of traditional CRC risk factors in early-onset CRC is a high priority. We sought to determine whether risk factors associated with late-onset CRC were also linked to early-onset CRC and whether association patterns differed by anatomic subsite.

Methods

Using data pooled from 13 population-based studies, we studied 3767 CRC cases and 4049 controls aged younger than 50 years and 23 437 CRC cases and 35 311 controls aged 50 years and older. Using multivariable and multinomial logistic regression, we estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to assess the association between risk factors and early-onset CRC and by anatomic subsite.

Results

Early-onset CRC was associated with not regularly using nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (OR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.21 to 1.68), greater red meat intake (OR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.16), lower educational attainment (OR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.16), alcohol abstinence (OR = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.08 to 1.39), and heavier alcohol use (OR = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.50). No factors exhibited a greater excess in early-onset compared with late-onset CRC. Evaluating risks by anatomic subsite, we found that lower total fiber intake was linked more strongly to rectal (OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.14 to 1.48) than colon cancer (OR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.02 to 1.27; P = .04).

Conclusion

In this large study, we identified several nongenetic risk factors associated with early-onset CRC, providing a basis for targeted identification of those most at risk, which is imperative in mitigating the rising burden of this disease.

Birth cohort-specific trends of sun-related behaviors among individuals from an international consortium of melanoma-prone families

BACKGROUND

Individuals from melanoma-prone families have similar or reduced sun-protective behaviors compared to the general population. Studies on trends in sun-related behaviors have been temporally and geographically limited.

METHODS

Individuals from an international consortium of melanoma-prone families (GenoMEL) were retrospectively asked about sunscreen use, sun exposure (time spent outside), sunburns, and sunbed use at several timepoints over their lifetime. Generalized linear mixed models were used to examine the association between these outcomes and birth cohort defined by decade spans, after adjusting for covariates.

RESULTS

A total of 2407 participants from 547 families across 17 centers were analyzed. Sunscreen use increased across subsequent birth cohorts, and although the likelihood of sunburns increased until the 1950s birth cohort, it decreased thereafter. Average sun exposure did not change across the birth cohorts, and the likelihood of sunbed use increased in more recent birth cohorts. We generally did not find any differences in sun-related behavior when comparing melanoma cases to non-cases. Melanoma cases had increased sunscreen use, decreased sun exposure, and decreased odds of sunburn and sunbed use after melanoma diagnosis compared to before diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Although sunscreen use has increased and the likelihood of sunburns has decreased in more recent birth cohorts, individuals in melanoma-prone families have not reduced their overall sun exposure and had an increased likelihood of sunbed use in more recent birth cohorts. These observations demonstrate partial improvements in melanoma prevention and suggest that additional intervention strategies may be needed to achieve optimal sun-protective behavior in melanoma-prone families.

Common Susceptibility Loci for Male Breast Cancer

BACKGROUND

The etiology of male breast cancer (MBC) is poorly understood. In particular, the extent to which the genetic basis of MBC differs from female breast cancer (FBC) is unknown. A previous genome-wide association study of MBC identified 2 predisposition loci for the disease, both of which were also associated with risk of FBC.

METHODS

We performed genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping of European ancestry MBC case subjects and controls in 3 stages. Associations between directly genotyped and imputed single nucleotide polymorphisms with MBC were assessed using fixed-effects meta-analysis of 1380 cases and 3620 controls. Replication genotyping of 810 cases and 1026 controls was used to validate variants with P values less than 1 × 10-06. Genetic correlation with FBC was evaluated using linkage disequilibrium score regression, by comprehensively examining the associations of published FBC risk loci with risk of MBC and by assessing associations between a FBC polygenic risk score and MBC. All statistical tests were 2-sided.

RESULTS

The genome-wide association study identified 3 novel MBC susceptibility loci that attained genome-wide statistical significance (P < 5 × 10-08). Genetic correlation analysis revealed a strong shared genetic basis with estrogen receptor-positive FBC. Men in the top quintile of genetic risk had a fourfold increased risk of breast cancer relative to those in the bottom quintile (odds ratio = 3.86, 95% confidence interval = 3.07 to 4.87, P = 2.08 × 10-30).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings advance our understanding of the genetic basis of MBC, providing support for an overlapping genetic etiology with FBC and identifying a fourfold high-risk group of susceptible men.

Circulating adipokine concentrations and risk of five obesity-related cancers: A Mendelian randomization study

Obesity is considered a chronic inflammatory state characterized by continued secretion of adipokines and cytokines. Experimental and epidemiological evidence indicates that circulating adipokines may be associated with the development of obesity-related cancers, but it is unclear if these associations are causal or confounded. We examined potential causal associations of specific adipokines (adiponectin, leptin, soluble leptin receptor [sOB-R] and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 [PAI-1]) with five obesity-related cancers (colorectal, pancreatic, renal cell carcinoma [RCC], ovarian and endometrial) using Mendelian randomization (MR) methods. We used summary-level data from large genetic consortia for 114 530 cancer cases and 245 284 controls. We constructed genetic instruments using 18 genetic variants for adiponectin, 2 for leptin and 4 for both sOB-R and PAI-1 (P value for inclusion<5 × 10-8 ). Causal estimates were obtained using two-sample MR methods. In the inverse-variance weighted models, we found an inverse association between adiponectin and risk of colorectal cancer (odds ratio per 1 μg/mL increment in adiponectin concentration: 0.90 [95% confidence interval = 0.84-0.97]; P = .01); but, evidence of horizontal pleiotropy was detected and the association was not present when this was taken into consideration. No association was found for adiponectin and risks of pancreatic cancer, RCC, ovarian cancer and endometrial cancer. Leptin, sOB-R and PAI-1 were also similarly unrelated to risk of obesity-related cancers. Despite the large sample size, our MR analyses do not support causal effects of circulating adiponectin, leptin, sOB-R and PAI-1 concentrations on the development of five obesity-related cancers.

A Combined Proteomics and Mendelian Randomization Approach to Investigate the Effects of Aspirin-Targeted Proteins on Colorectal Cancer

BACKGROUND

Evidence for aspirin's chemopreventative properties on colorectal cancer (CRC) is substantial, but its mechanism of action is not well-understood. We combined a proteomic approach with Mendelian randomization (MR) to identify possible new aspirin targets that decrease CRC risk.

METHODS

Human colorectal adenoma cells (RG/C2) were treated with aspirin (24 hours) and a stable isotope labeling with amino acids in cell culture (SILAC) based proteomics approach identified altered protein expression. Protein quantitative trait loci (pQTLs) from INTERVAL (N = 3,301) and expression QTLs (eQTLs) from the eQTLGen Consortium (N = 31,684) were used as genetic proxies for protein and mRNA expression levels. Two-sample MR of mRNA/protein expression on CRC risk was performed using eQTL/pQTL data combined with CRC genetic summary data from the Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR), Colorectal Transdisciplinary (CORECT), Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer (GECCO) consortia and UK Biobank (55,168 cases and 65,160 controls).

RESULTS

Altered expression was detected for 125/5886 proteins. Of these, aspirin decreased MCM6, RRM2, and ARFIP2 expression, and MR analysis showed that a standard deviation increase in mRNA/protein expression was associated with increased CRC risk (OR: 1.08, 95% CI, 1.03-1.13; OR: 3.33, 95% CI, 2.46-4.50; and OR: 1.15, 95% CI, 1.02-1.29, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

MCM6 and RRM2 are involved in DNA repair whereby reduced expression may lead to increased DNA aberrations and ultimately cancer cell death, whereas ARFIP2 is involved in actin cytoskeletal regulation, indicating a possible role in aspirin's reduction of metastasis.

IMPACT

Our approach has shown how laboratory experiments and population-based approaches can combine to identify aspirin-targeted proteins possibly affecting CRC risk.

Identifying Novel Susceptibility Genes for Colorectal Cancer Risk From a Transcriptome-Wide Association Study of 125,478 Subjects

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Susceptibility genes and the underlying mechanisms for the majority of risk loci identified by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for colorectal cancer (CRC) risk remain largely unknown. We conducted a transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) to identify putative susceptibility genes.

METHODS

Gene-expression prediction models were built using transcriptome and genetic data from the 284 normal transverse colon tissues of European descendants from the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx), and model performance was evaluated using data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (n = 355). We applied the gene-expression prediction models and GWAS data to evaluate associations of genetically predicted gene-expression with CRC risk in 58,131 CRC cases and 67,347 controls of European ancestry. Dual-luciferase reporter assays and knockdown experiments in CRC cells and tumor xenografts were conducted.

RESULTS

We identified 25 genes associated with CRC risk at a Bonferroni-corrected threshold of P < 9.1 × 10-6, including genes in 4 novel loci, PYGL (14q22.1), RPL28 (19q13.42), CAPN12 (19q13.2), MYH7B (20q11.22), and MAP1L3CA (20q11.22). In 9 known GWAS-identified loci, we uncovered 9 genes that have not been reported previously, whereas 4 genes remained statistically significant after adjusting for the lead risk variant of the locus. Through colocalization analysis in GWAS loci, we additionally identified 12 putative susceptibility genes that were supported by TWAS analysis at P < .01. We showed that risk allele of the lead risk variant rs1741640 affected the promoter activity of CABLES2. Knockdown experiments confirmed that CABLES2 plays a vital role in colorectal carcinogenesis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study reveals new putative susceptibility genes and provides new insight into the biological mechanisms underlying CRC development.

Tumour gene expression signature in primary melanoma predicts long-term outcomes

Adjuvant systemic therapies are now routinely used following resection of stage III melanoma, however accurate prognostic information is needed to better stratify patients. We use differential expression analyses of primary tumours from 204 RNA-sequenced melanomas within a large adjuvant trial, identifying a 121 metastasis-associated gene signature. This signature strongly associated with progression-free (HR = 1.63, p = 5.24 × 10-5) and overall survival (HR = 1.61, p = 1.67 × 10-4), was validated in 175 regional lymph nodes metastasis as well as two externally ascertained datasets. The machine learning classification models trained using the signature genes performed significantly better in predicting metastases than models trained with clinical covariates (pAUROC = 7.03 × 10-4), or published prognostic signatures (pAUROC < 0.05). The signature score negatively correlated with measures of immune cell infiltration (ρ = -0.75, p < 2.2 × 10-16), with a higher score representing reduced lymphocyte infiltration and a higher 5-year risk of death in stage II melanoma. Our expression signature identifies melanoma patients at higher risk of metastases and warrants further evaluation in adjuvant clinical trials.

Adiposity, metabolites, and colorectal cancer risk: Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Higher adiposity increases the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), but whether this relationship varies by anatomical sub-site or by sex is unclear. Further, the metabolic alterations mediating the effects of adiposity on CRC are not fully understood.

METHODS

We examined sex- and site-specific associations of adiposity with CRC risk and whether adiposity-associated metabolites explain the associations of adiposity with CRC. Genetic variants from genome-wide association studies of body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR, unadjusted for BMI; N = 806,810), and 123 metabolites from targeted nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics (N = 24,925), were used as instruments. Sex-combined and sex-specific Mendelian randomization (MR) was conducted for BMI and WHR with CRC risk (58,221 cases and 67,694 controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium, Colorectal Cancer Transdisciplinary Study, and Colon Cancer Family Registry). Sex-combined MR was conducted for BMI and WHR with metabolites, for metabolites with CRC, and for BMI and WHR with CRC adjusted for metabolite classes in multivariable models.

RESULTS

In sex-specific MR analyses, higher BMI (per 4.2 kg/m2) was associated with 1.23 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.08, 1.38) times higher CRC odds among men (inverse-variance-weighted (IVW) model); among women, higher BMI (per 5.2 kg/m2) was associated with 1.09 (95% CI = 0.97, 1.22) times higher CRC odds. WHR (per 0.07 higher) was more strongly associated with CRC risk among women (IVW OR = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.08, 1.43) than men (IVW OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.81, 1.36). BMI or WHR was associated with 104/123 metabolites at false discovery rate-corrected P ≤ 0.05; several metabolites were associated with CRC, but not in directions that were consistent with the mediation of positive adiposity-CRC relations. In multivariable MR analyses, associations of BMI and WHR with CRC were not attenuated following adjustment for representative metabolite classes, e.g., the univariable IVW OR for BMI with CRC was 1.12 (95% CI = 1.00, 1.26), and this became 1.11 (95% CI = 0.99, 1.26) when adjusting for cholesterol in low-density lipoprotein particles.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that higher BMI more greatly raises CRC risk among men, whereas higher WHR more greatly raises CRC risk among women. Adiposity was associated with numerous metabolic alterations, but none of these explained associations between adiposity and CRC. More detailed metabolomic measures are likely needed to clarify the mechanistic pathways.

Hemochromatosis risk genotype is not associated with colorectal cancer or age at its diagnosis

Homozygotes for the higher penetrance hemochromatosis risk allele, HFE c.845G>A (p.Cys282Tyr, or C282Y), have been reported to be at a 2- to 3-fold increased risk for colorectal cancer (CRC). These results have been reported for small sample size studies with no information about age at diagnosis for CRC. An association with age at diagnosis might alter CRC screening recommendations. We analyzed two large European ancestry datasets to assess the association of HFE genotype with CRC risk and age at CRC diagnosis. The first dataset included 59,733 CRC or advanced adenoma cases and 72,351 controls from a CRC epidemiological study consortium. The second dataset included 13,564 self-reported CRC cases and 2,880,218 controls from the personal genetics company, 23andMe. No association of the common hereditary hemochromatosis (HH) risk genotype and CRC was found in either dataset. The odds ratios (ORs) for the association of CRC and HFE C282Y homozygosity were 1.08 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91-1.29; p = 0.4) and 1.01 (95% CI, 0.78-1.31, p = 0.9) in the two cohorts, respectively. Age at CRC diagnosis also did not differ by HFE C282Y/C282Y genotype in either dataset. These results indicate no increased CRC risk in individuals with HH genotypes and suggest that persons with HH risk genotypes can follow population screening recommendations for CRC.

Genome-wide Modeling of Polygenic Risk Score in Colorectal Cancer Risk

Accurate colorectal cancer (CRC) risk prediction models are critical for identifying individuals at low and high risk of developing CRC, as they can then be offered targeted screening and interventions to address their risks of developing disease (if they are in a high-risk group) and avoid unnecessary screening and interventions (if they are in a low-risk group). As it is likely that thousands of genetic variants contribute to CRC risk, it is clinically important to investigate whether these genetic variants can be used jointly for CRC risk prediction. In this paper, we derived and compared different approaches to generating predictive polygenic risk scores (PRS) from genome-wide association studies (GWASs) including 55,105 CRC-affected case subjects and 65,079 control subjects of European ancestry. We built the PRS in three ways, using (1) 140 previously identified and validated CRC loci; (2) SNP selection based on linkage disequilibrium (LD) clumping followed by machine-learning approaches; and (3) LDpred, a Bayesian approach for genome-wide risk prediction. We tested the PRS in an independent cohort of 101,987 individuals with 1,699 CRC-affected case subjects. The discriminatory accuracy, calculated by the age- and sex-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), was highest for the LDpred-derived PRS (AUC = 0.654) including nearly 1.2 M genetic variants (the proportion of causal genetic variants for CRC assumed to be 0.003), whereas the PRS of the 140 known variants identified from GWASs had the lowest AUC (AUC = 0.629). Based on the LDpred-derived PRS, we are able to identify 30% of individuals without a family history as having risk for CRC similar to those with a family history of CRC, whereas the PRS based on known GWAS variants identified only top 10% as having a similar relative risk. About 90% of these individuals have no family history and would have been considered average risk under current screening guidelines, but might benefit from earlier screening. The developed PRS offers a way for risk-stratified CRC screening and other targeted interventions.

Assessment of polygenic architecture and risk prediction based on common variants across fourteen cancers

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have led to the identification of hundreds of susceptibility loci across cancers, but the impact of further studies remains uncertain. Here we analyse summary-level data from GWAS of European ancestry across fourteen cancer sites to estimate the number of common susceptibility variants (polygenicity) and underlying effect-size distribution. All cancers show a high degree of polygenicity, involving at a minimum of thousands of loci. We project that sample sizes required to explain 80% of GWAS heritability vary from 60,000 cases for testicular to over 1,000,000 cases for lung cancer. The maximum relative risk achievable for subjects at the 99th risk percentile of underlying polygenic risk scores (PRS), compared to average risk, ranges from 12 for testicular to 2.5 for ovarian cancer. We show that PRS have potential for risk stratification for cancers of breast, colon and prostate, but less so for others because of modest heritability and lower incidence.

Cancer prevention with aspirin in hereditary colorectal cancer (Lynch syndrome), 10-year follow-up and registry-based 20-year data in the CAPP2 study: a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Lynch syndrome is associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer and with a broader spectrum of cancers, especially endometrial cancer. In 2011, our group reported long-term cancer outcomes (mean follow-up 55·7 months [SD 31·4]) for participants with Lynch syndrome enrolled into a randomised trial of daily aspirin versus placebo. This report completes the planned 10-year follow-up to allow a longer-term assessment of the effect of taking regular aspirin in this high-risk population.

METHODS

In the double-blind, randomised CAPP2 trial, 861 patients from 43 international centres worldwide (707 [82%] from Europe, 112 [13%] from Australasia, 38 [4%] from Africa, and four [<1%] from The Americas) with Lynch syndrome were randomly assigned to receive 600 mg aspirin daily or placebo. Cancer outcomes were monitored for at least 10 years from recruitment with English, Finnish, and Welsh participants being monitored for up to 20 years. The primary endpoint was development of colorectal cancer. Analysis was by intention to treat and per protocol. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN59521990.

FINDINGS

Between January, 1999, and March, 2005, 937 eligible patients with Lynch syndrome, mean age 45 years, commenced treatment, of whom 861 agreed to be randomly assigned to the aspirin group or placebo; 427 (50%) participants received aspirin and 434 (50%) placebo. Participants were followed for a mean of 10 years approximating 8500 person-years. 40 (9%) of 427 participants who received aspirin developed colorectal cancer compared with 58 (13%) of 434 who received placebo. Intention-to-treat Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed a significantly reduced hazard ratio (HR) of 0·65 (95% CI 0·43-0·97; p=0·035) for aspirin versus placebo. Negative binomial regression to account for multiple primary events gave an incidence rate ratio of 0·58 (0·39-0·87; p=0·0085). Per-protocol analyses restricted to 509 who achieved 2 years' intervention gave an HR of 0·56 (0·34-0·91; p=0·019) and an incidence rate ratio of 0·50 (0·31-0·82; p=0·0057). Non-colorectal Lynch syndrome cancers were reported in 36 participants who received aspirin and 36 participants who received placebo. Intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses showed no effect. For all Lynch syndrome cancers combined, the intention-to-treat analysis did not reach significance but per-protocol analysis showed significantly reduced overall risk for the aspirin group (HR=0·63, 0·43-0·92; p=0·018). Adverse events during the intervention phase between aspirin and placebo groups were similar, and no significant difference in compliance between intervention groups was observed for participants with complete intervention phase data; details reported previously.

INTERPRETATION

The case for prevention of colorectal cancer with aspirin in Lynch syndrome is supported by our results.

FUNDING

Cancer Research UK, European Union, MRC, NIHR, Bayer Pharma AG, Barbour Foundation.