Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.

METHODS

Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Quality of antenatal care in 13 sub-Saharan African countries in the SDG era: evidence from Demographic and Health Surveys

BACKGROUND

Maternal and neonatal mortality remains high in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with women having 1 in 36 lifetime risk. The WHO launched the new comprehensive recommendations/guidelines on antenatal care (ANC) in 2016, which stresses the essence of quality antenatal care. Consequently, the objective of this cross-sectional study is to investigate the quality of ANC in 13 SSA countries.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional study that is premised on pre-existing secondary data, spanning 2015 to 2021. Data for the study was obtained from the Measure DHS Programme and included a total of 79,725 women aged 15-49 were included. The outcome variable was quality ANC and it was derived as a composite variable from four main ANC services: blood pressure taken, urine taken, receipt of iron supplementation and blood sample taken. Thirteen independent variables were included and broadly categorised into individual and community-level characteristics. Descriptive statistics were used to present the proportion of women who had quality ANC across the respective countries. A two-level multilevel regression analysis was conducted to ascertain the direction of association between quality ANC and the independent variables.

RESULTS

The overall average of women who had quality ANC was 53.8% [CI = 51.2,57.5] spanning from 82.3% [CI = 80.6,85.3] in Cameroon to 11% [CI = 10.0, 11.4] in Burundi. Women with secondary/higher education had higher odds of obtaining quality ANC compared with those without formal education [aOR = 1.23, Credible Interval [Crl] = 1.10,1.37]. Poorest women were more likely to have quality ANC relative to the richest women [aOR = 1.21, Crl = 1.14,1.27]. Married women were more likely to receive quality ANC relative to those cohabiting [aOR = 2.04, Crl = 1.94,3.05]. Women who had four or more ANC visits had higher odds of quality ANC [aOR = 2.21, Crl = 2.04,2.38]. Variation existed in receipt of quality ANC at the community-level [σ2 = 0.29, Crl = 0.24,0.33]. The findings also indicated that a 36.2% variation in quality ANC is attributable to community-level factors.

CONCLUSION

To achieve significant improvement in the coverage of quality ANC, the focus of maternal health interventions ought to prioritise uneducated women, those cohabiting, and those who are unable to have at least four ANCs. Further, ample recognition should be accorded to the existing and potential facilitators and barriers to quality ANC across and within countries.

Assessing geographical variation in ovulatory cycle knowledge among women of reproductive age in Sierra Leone: Analysis of the 2019 Demographic and Health Survey

BACKGROUND

Sierra Leone has poor indicators of reproductive health and a high prevalence of unintended pregnancies. To date, no study has explored determinants of ovulatory cycle knowledge in Sierra Leone. We investigated geographic region to determine where the needs for improved ovulatory cycle knowledge are greatest in Sierra Leone.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional study of women of reproductive age (n = 15,574) based on the 2019 Sierra Leone Demographic and Health Survey. Geographic region and sociodemographic covariates were included in a multivariate logistic regression model predicting the odds that participants possessed accurate knowledge of when in the ovulatory cycle pregnancy initiation is most likely.

RESULTS

In Sierra Leone, 39.8% (CI = 37.4-40.9) of 15-49-year-old women had accurate knowledge of the ovulatory cycle. Women in the Northern and Southern regions possessed the highest prevalence of correct knowledge (46.7%, CI = 43.1-50.3 and 45.1%, CI = 41.9-48.2, respectively). Women from the Northwestern (AOR = 0.29, CI = 0.22-0.38), Eastern (AOR = 0.55, CI = 0.41-0.72), and Western regions (AOR = 0.63, CI = 0.50-0.80) had significantly lower odds of accurate ovulatory cycle knowledge compared to others. Women aged 15-19, those with a primary school education, and participants with a parity of none all had the lowest odds of correct ovulatory cycle knowledge as well.

CONCLUSION

Less than four in ten women in Sierra Leone had accurate knowledge of when in the ovulatory cycle pregnancy is most likely to occur. This suggests that family planning outreach programs should include education on the ovulatory cycle and the importance of understanding the implications of its timing. This can reduce the risk of unintended pregnancies throughout Sierra Leone, and can have an especially positive impact in the Northwestern, Eastern, and Western regions, where ovulatory cycle knowledge was significantly lower.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a major global contributor to morbidity and mortality. In 2020-21, non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic reduced not only the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also the transmission of other LRI pathogens. Tracking LRI incidence and mortality, as well as the pathogens responsible, can guide health-system responses and funding priorities to reduce future burden. We present estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 of the burden of non-COVID-19 LRIs and corresponding aetiologies from 1990 to 2021, inclusive of pandemic effects on the incidence and mortality of select respiratory viruses, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, incidence, and aetiology attribution for LRI, defined by the GBD as pneumonia or bronchiolitis, not inclusive of COVID-19. We analysed 26 259 site-years of mortality data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate LRI mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as household surveys, hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and LRI mortality estimates, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence and prevalence using DisMod-MR 2.1. For aetiology estimation, we analysed multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature data using a network analysis model to produce the proportion of LRI deaths and episodes attributable to the following pathogens: Acinetobacter baumannii, Chlamydia spp, Enterobacter spp, Escherichia coli, fungi, group B streptococcus, Haemophilus influenzae, influenza viruses, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Legionella spp, Mycoplasma spp, polymicrobial infections, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and other viruses (ie, the aggregate of all viruses studied except influenza and RSV), as well as a residual category of other bacterial pathogens.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2021, we estimated 344 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 325-364) incident episodes of LRI, or 4350 episodes (4120-4610) per 100 000 population, and 2·18 million deaths (1·98-2·36), or 27·7 deaths (25·1-29·9) per 100 000. 502 000 deaths (406 000-611 000) were in children younger than 5 years, among which 254 000 deaths (197 000-320 000) occurred in countries with a low Socio-demographic Index. Of the 18 modelled pathogen categories in 2021, S pneumoniae was responsible for the highest proportions of LRI episodes and deaths, with an estimated 97·9 million (92·1-104·0) episodes and 505 000 deaths (454 000-555 000) globally. The pathogens responsible for the second and third highest episode counts globally were other viral aetiologies (46·4 million [43·6-49·3] episodes) and Mycoplasma spp (25·3 million [23·5-27·2]), while those responsible for the second and third highest death counts were S aureus (424 000 [380 000-459 000]) and K pneumoniae (176 000 [158 000-194 000]). From 1990 to 2019, the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate declined by 41·7% (35·9-46·9), from 56·5 deaths (51·3-61·9) to 32·9 deaths (29·9-35·4) per 100 000. From 2019 to 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic and implementation of associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, we estimated a 16·0% (13·1-18·6) decline in the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate, largely accounted for by a 71·8% (63·8-78·9) decline in the number of influenza deaths and a 66·7% (56·6-75·3) decline in the number of RSV deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing LRI mortality, but the burden remains high, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, with its associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, global incident LRI cases and mortality attributable to influenza and RSV declined substantially. Expanding access to health-care services and vaccines, including S pneumoniae, H influenzae type B, and novel RSV vaccines, along with new low-cost interventions against S aureus, could mitigate the LRI burden and prevent transmission of LRI-causing pathogens.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care (UK).

Female genital mutilation/cutting among girls aged 0-14: evidence from the 2018 Mali Demographic and Health Survey data

BACKGROUND

Female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) is considered a social norm in many African societies, with varying prevalence among countries. Mali is one of the eight countries with very high prevalence of FGM/C in Africa. This study assessed the individual and contextual factors associated with female FGM/C among girls aged 0-14 years in Mali.

METHODS

We obtained data from the 2018 Mali Demographic and Health Survey. The prevalence of FGM/C in girls was presented using percentages while a multilevel binary logistic regression analysis was conducted to assess the predictors of FGM/C and the results were presented using adjusted odds ratios with associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

The results indicate that more than half (72.7%, 95% CI = 70.4-74.8) of women in Mali with daughters had at least one daughter who has gone through circumcision. The likelihood of circumcision of girls increased with age, with women aged 45-49 having the highest odds compared to those aged 15-19 (aOR = 17.68, CI = 7.91-31.79). A higher likelihood of FGM/C in daughters was observed among women who never read newspaper/magazine (aOR = 2.22, 95% CI = 1.27-3.89), compared to those who read newspaper/magazine at least once a week. Compared to women who are not circumcised, those who had been circumcised were more likely to have their daughters circumcised (aOR = 53.98, 95% CI = 24.91-117.00).

CONCLUSION

The study revealed the age of mothers, frequency of reading newspaper/magazine, and circumcision status of mothers, as factors associated with circumcision of girls aged 0-14 in Mali. It is, therefore, imperative for existing interventions and new ones to focus on these factors in order to reduce FGM/C in Mali. This will help Mali to contribute to the global efforts of eliminating all harmful practices, such as child, early and forced marriage and female genital mutilation by 2030.

Influence of type of violence on women's help-seeking behaviour: Evidence from 10 countries in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a major public health concern that mostly impacts women's health and social well-being. This study explored how the various types of IPV (physical, sexual, and emotional) including women's experience of childhood violence influence their help-seeking behavior in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

METHODS

We analyzed data from the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), carried out between 2018 and 2021. The outcome variable was help-seeking behavior. Descriptive and inferential analyses were carried out. The descriptive analysis looked at the bivariate analysis between the country and outcome variables. Using a binary logistic regression model, a multivariate analysis was utilized to determine the association between the outcome variable and the explanatory variables. Binary logistic regression modelling was used based on the dichotomous nature of the outcome variable. The results were sample-weighted to account for any under- or over-sampling in the sample.

RESULTS

The proportion of women who sought help for intimate partner violence was 36.1 percent. This ranged from 19.2 percent in Mali to 49.6 percent in Rwanda. Women who experienced violence in childhood (OR = 0.75, CI = 0.69, 0.82) have a lower likelihood of seeking help compared to those who did not experience violence in their childhood. Women who had experienced emotional violence (OR = 1.94, CI = 1.80, 2.08), and physical violence (OR = 1.37, CI = 1.26, 1.48) have a higher likelihood of seeking help compared to those who have not. Women with secondary educational levels (aOR = 1.13, CI = = 1.02, 1.24) have a higher likelihood of seeking help compared to those with no education. Cohabiting women have a higher likelihood (aOR = 1.22, CI = 1.10, 1.35) of seeking help compared to married women.

CONCLUSION

The study highlights the importance of early identification of IPV and fit-for-purpose interventions to demystify IPV normalization to enhance women's willingness to seek help. The study's findings suggest that education is crucial for increasing women's awareness of the legalities surrounding IPV and available structures and institutions for seeking help.

The role of social support in antiretroviral therapy uptake and retention among pregnant and postpartum women living with HIV in the Greater Accra region of Ghana

INTRODUCTION

The role of social support in antiretroviral therapy (ART) uptake and retention among pregnant and postpartum women in Ghana's capital, Accra, has received limited attention in the literature. This cross-sectional study extends existing knowledge by investigating the role of social support in ART adherence and retention among pregnant and postpartum women in Accra.

METHODS

We implemented a cross-sectional study in eleven (11) public health facilities. Convenience sampling approach was used to recruit 180 participants, out of which 176 with completed data were included in the study. ART adherence in the three months preceding the survey (termed consistent uptake), and ART retention were the outcomes of interest. Initial analysis included descriptive statistics characterized by frequencies and percentages to describe the study population. In model building, we included all variables that had p-values of 0.2 or lesser in the bivariate analysis to minimize negative confounding. Overall, a two-sided p-value of < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Data were analyzed using Stata version 14.1 (College Station, TX).

RESULTS

In the multivariate model, we realized a lower odds trend between social support score and consistent ART adherence, however, this was insignificant. Similarly, both the univariate and multivariate models showed that social support has no relationship with ART retention. Meanwhile, urban residents had a higher prevalence of ART adherence (adjusted Prevalence ratio (aPR) = 2.04, CI = 1.12-3.73) relative to rural/peri-urban residents. As compared to those below age 30, women aged 30-34 (aPR = 0.58, CI = 0.34-0.98) and above 35 (aPR = 0.48, CI = 0.31-0.72) had lower prevalence of ART adherence Women who knew their partner's HIV status had lower prevalence of ART adherence compared to those who did not know (aPR = 0.62, CI = 0.43-0.91). Also, having a rival or co-wife was significantly associated with ART retention such that higher prevalence of ART adherence among women with rivals relative to those without rivals (aOR = 1.98, CI = 1.16-3.36).

CONCLUSION

Our study showed that social support does not play any essential role in ART adherence among the surveyed pregnant and postpartum women. Meanwhile, factors such as having a rival and being under the age of thirty play an instrumental role. The study has signaled the need for ART retention scale-up interventions to have a multi-pronged approach in order to identify the multitude of underlying factors, beyond social support, that enhance/impede efforts to achieve higher uptake and retention rates.

What predicts health facility delivery among women? analysis from the 2021 Madagascar Demographic and Health Survey

BACKGROUND

One of the pivotal determinants of maternal and neonatal health outcomes hinges on the choice of place of delivery. However, the decision to give birth within the confines of a health facility is shaped by a complex interplay of sociodemographic, economic, cultural, and healthcare system-related factors. This study examined the predictors of health facility delivery among women in Madagascar.

METHODS

We used data from the 2021 Madagascar Demographic and Health Survey. A total of 9,315 women who had a health facility delivery or delivered elsewhere for the most recent live birth preceding the survey were considered in this analysis. Descriptive analysis, and multilevel regression were carried out to determine the prevalence and factors associated with health facility delivery. The results were presented as frequencies, percentages, crude odds ratios and adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and a p-value < 0.05 was used to declare statistical significance.

RESULTS

The prevalence of health facility delivery was 41.2% [95% CI: 38.9-43.5%]. In the multilevel analysis, women aged 45-49 [aOR = 2.14, 95% CI = 1.34-3.43], those with secondary/higher education [aOR = 1.62, 95% CI = 1.30-2.01], widowed [aOR = 2.25, 95% CI = 1.43-3.58], and those exposed to mass media [aOR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.00-1.39] had higher odds of delivering in health facilities compared to those aged 15-49, those with no formal education, women who had never been in union and not exposed to mass media respectively. Women with at least an antenatal care visit [aOR = 6.95, 95% CI = 4.95-9.77], those in the richest wealth index [aOR = 2.74, 95% CI = 1.99-3.77], and women who considered distance to health facility as not a big problem [aOR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.09-1.50] were more likely to deliver in health facilities compared to those who had no antenatal care visit. Women who lived in communities with high literacy levels [aOR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.15-2.08], and women who lived in communities with high socioeconomic status [aOR = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.28-2.31] had increased odds of health facility delivery compared to those with low literacy levels and in communities with low socioeconomic status respectively.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of health facility delivery among women in Madagascar is low in this study. The findings of this study call on stakeholders and the government to strengthen the healthcare system of Madagascar using the framework for universal health coverage. There is also the need to implement programmes and interventions geared towards increasing health facility delivery among adolescent girls and young women, women with no formal education, and those not exposed to media. Also, consideration should be made to provide free maternal health care and a health insurance scheme that can be accessed by women in the poorest wealth index. Health facilities should be provided at places where women have challenges with distance to other health facilities. Education on the importance of antenatal care visits should also be encouraged, especially among women with low literacy levels and in communities with low socioeconomic status.

Association between water insecurity and antiretroviral therapy adherence among pregnant and postpartum women in Greater Accra region of Ghana

BACKGROUND

Adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) can substantially reduce morbidity and mortality among women living with HIV (WLWH) and prevent vertical transmission of HIV. However, in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), more than 50% of new mothers discontinue ART and HIV care after childbirth. The role of water insecurity (WI) in ART adherence is not well-explored. We examined the relationship between WI and ART adherence among pregnant and postpartum WLWH in Greater Accra region of Ghana.

METHODS

Using a cross-sectional survey, we recruited 176 pregnant and postpartum WLWH on ART across 11 health facilities. We examined the association between WI (measured using the Household Water Insecurity Experience Scale, and categorized as moderate and severe WI compard to low WI) and poor ART adherence (defined as scoring a below average observed CASE index score). Bivariate analysis was performed using chi-square test followed by multivariate logistic regression models. We included all variables with p-values less than 0.20 in the multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

Most (79.5%) of the pregnant and postpartum WLWH enrolled on ART, were urban residents. Over 2/3 were aged 30 years and older. Overall, 33.5% of respondents had poor ART adherence. Proportion of poor ART adherence was 19.4% among those with low WI, 44.4% in those with moderate WI, and 40.0% among those with high WI. Respondents with moderate household water insecurity had a greater odds of reporting poor ART adherence, as compared to those with low water insecurity (adjusted Odds ratio (aOR) = 2.76, 95%CI: 1.14-6.66, p = 0.024), even after adjusting for food insecurity. Similarly, respondents with high WI had a greater odds of reporting poor ART adherence, as compared to those with low water insecurity (aOR = 1.49, 95%CI: 0.50-4.48, p = 0.479), even after adjusting for food insecurity.

CONCLUSION

Water insecurity is prevalent among pregnant and postpartum WLWH and is a significant risk factor for poor ART adherence. Governments and other stakeholders working in HIV care provision should prioritize water security programming for WLWH along the HIV care continuum.

Assessing the inequalities in demand for family planning satisfied in Ghana: evidence from the 1993-2014 Demographic and Health Surveys

BACKGROUND

Family planning is essential in promoting the well-being of women and their families and communities and ensuring quality of care in contraceptive use. This study sought to assess the trend and inequalities in the demand for family planning satisfied (DFPS) in Ghana from 1993 to 2014.

METHODS

The World Health Organization's Health Equity Assessment Toolkit was employed to analyse the data. We disaggregated DFPS by five equity stratifiers: age, economic status, education, residence and region. Inequality was measured using difference (D), population attributable risk (PAR), ratio (R) and population attributable fraction (PAF).

RESULTS

The study showed an increment in DFPS from 17.8% to 38.7% between 1993 and 2014. With respect to age, we noted substantial inequality in 2003 (D=21.9 [95% confidence interval {CI} 15.2 to 28.7]), 1993 (D=4.8 [95% CI -1.8 to 11.4]) and 2014 (D=15 [95% CI 3 to 26.9]). The greatest economic inequality occurred in 1993 (PAF=69.7 [95% CI 50.8 to 88.6]; D=20.1 [95% CI 14.8 to 25.4]). Regarding education, significant inequality existed in 1993 (PAF=112 [95% CI 100.8 to 123.2]; D=29.7 [95% CI 21.9 to 37.4]). Ashanti and the Upper West regions reported significant inequalities (PAF=55.6 [95% CI 33.1 to 78.2]; D=16.1 [95% CI 8.9 to 23.3]).

CONCLUSIONS

There are age-, education-, wealth-, residence- and region-related inequalities with respect to DFPS. Policymakers will have to prioritize the needs of women with no formal or low educational attainment in order to improve DFPS coverage. Special attention needs to be given to adolescent girls since they suffer greater inequalities than adult women.

Global, regional and national trends in tuberculosis incidence and main risk factors: a study using data from 2000 to 2021

BACKGROUND

Despite the significant progress over the years, Tuberculosis remains a major public health concern and a danger to global health. This study aimed to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of the incidence of tuberculosis and its risk factors and to predict future trends in the incidence of Tuberculosis.

METHODS

This study used secondary data on tuberculosis incidence and tuberculosis risk factor data from 209 countries and regions worldwide between 2000 and 2021 for analysis. Specifically, this study analyses the spatial autocorrelation of Tuberculosis incidence from 2000 to 2021 by calculating Moran's I and identified risk factors for Tuberculosis incidence by multiple stepwise linear regression analysis. We also used the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model to predict the trend of Tuberculosis incidence to 2030. This study used ArcGIS Pro, Geoda and R studio 4.2.2 for analysis.

RESULTS

The study found the global incidence of Tuberculosis and its spatial autocorrelation trends from 2000 to 2021 showed a general downward trend, but its spatial autocorrelation trends remained significant (Moran's I = 0.465, P < 0.001). The risk factors for Tuberculosis incidence are also geographically specific. Low literacy rate was identified as the most pervasive and profound risk factor for Tuberculosis.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows the global spatial and temporal status of Tuberculosis incidence and risk factors. Although the incidence of Tuberculosis and Moran's Index of Tuberculosis are both declining, there are still differences in Tuberculosis risk factors across countries and regions. Even though literacy rate is the leading risk factor affecting the largest number of countries and regions, there are still many countries and regions where gender (male) is the leading risk factor. In addition, at the current rate of decline in Tuberculosis incidence, the World Health Organization's goal of ending the Tuberculosis pandemic by 2030 will be difficult to achieve. Targeted preventive interventions, such as health education and regular screening of Tuberculosis-prone populations are needed if we are to achieve the goal. The results of this study will help policymakers to identify high-risk groups based on differences in TB risk factors in different areas, rationalize the allocation of healthcare resources, and provide timely health education, so as to formulate more effective Tuberculosis prevention and control policies.

A multilevel analysis of social determinants of skilled birth attendant utilisation among married and cohabiting women of Madagascar

BACKGROUND

Maternal mortality ratio (MMR) in Madagascar is 392 deaths per 100 000 live births, and this is a major public health concern. One of the strategies for reducing MMR and achieving target 3.1 of the Sustainable Development Goals (i.e. reducing the global MMR below 70 per 100 000 live births) is the utilisation of skilled birth attendants (SBAs). This analysis examined the prevalence and social determinants of SBA utilisation among married and cohabiting women of Madagascar.

METHODS

Data from the 2021 Madagascar Demographic and Health Surveys was analysed on a weighted sample of 6997 married and cohabiting women. A multilevel regression was carried out to determine the social determinants of utilising SBAs. The results are presented as odds ratios (ORs) associated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and a p-value <0.05 to determine the significant associations.

RESULTS

The prevalence of SBAs among married and cohabiting women of Madagascar was 64.4% (95% CI 0.62 to 0.68). In model 3 of the multilevel regression, women 35-39 y of age (adjusted OR [aOR] 1.86 [95% CI 1.30 to 2.60]), women with secondary/higher education (aOR 1.67 [95% CI 1.32 to 2.10]), women whose partners had secondary/higher education (aOR 1.58 [95% CI 1.25 to 1.99]), cohabiting women (aOR 1.33 [95% CI 1.07 to 1.65]), women who had four or more antenatal care visits (aOR  2.05 [95% CI 1.79 to 2.35]), female household head (aOR 1.44 [95% CI 1.06 to 1.95]), Muslims (aOR 1.58 [95% CI 0.71 to 3.53]), those of the richest wealth index (aOR 4.32 [95% CI 2.93 to 6.36]) and women who lived in communities with high literacy levels (aOR 2.17 [95% CI 1.57 to 3.00]) had higher odds of utilisation of SBA.

CONCLUSION

This current analysis revealed low SBA utilisation among married and cohabiting women in Madagascar. The analysis points to the fact that understaffing and inaccessibility of health facilities remain major contributors to the low utilisation of SBAs. The findings call on the government and stakeholders in Madagascar to consider implementing programs that will empower women and focus on disadvantaged groups. These programs could include providing free maternal healthcare services to all pregnant women and intensifying health education programs that target women and their partners with no formal education.

Global, regional, and national mortality due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning, 2000-2021: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is a largely preventable cause of death that has received insufficient attention. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive global analysis of the demographic, temporal, and geographical patterns of fatal unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning from 2000 to 2021.

METHODS

As part of the latest Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality was quantified using the GBD cause of death ensemble modelling strategy. Vital registration data and covariates with an epidemiological link to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning informed the estimates of death counts and mortality rates for all locations, sexes, ages, and years included in the GBD. Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying deaths by remaining standard life expectancy at age of death. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning deaths due to occupational injuries and high alcohol use were estimated.

FINDINGS

In 2021, the global mortality rate due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning was 0·366 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval 0·276-0·415), with 28 900 deaths (21 700-32 800) and 1·18 million YLLs (0·886-1·35) across all ages. Nearly 70% of deaths occurred in males (20 100 [15 800-24 000]), and the 50-54-year age group had the largest number of deaths (2210 [1660-2590]). The highest mortality rate was in those aged 85 years or older with 1·96 deaths (1·38-2·32) per 100 000. Eastern Europe had the highest age-standardised mortality rate at 2·12 deaths (1·98-2·30) per 100 000. Globally, there was a 53·5% (46·2-63·7) decrease in the age-standardised mortality rate from 2000 to 2021, although this decline was not uniform across regions. The overall PAFs for occupational injuries and high alcohol use were 13·6% (11·9-16·0) and 3·5% (1·4-6·2), respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality rates have been inconsistent across regions and over time since 2000. Given that unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is almost entirely preventable, policy-level interventions that lower the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning events should be prioritised, such as those that increase access to improved heating and cooking devices, reduce carbon monoxide emissions from generators, and mandate use of carbon monoxide alarms.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Perceived risks, challenges and coping strategies among West African immigrant entrepreneurs in Ghana

Globally, immigrants' entrepreneurship has been widely acknowledged as a critical driver for the socio-economic development of nations. Yet, studies barely examine the risks and difficulties immigrants encounter in their business transactions, especially those engaged in small-scale itinerant retail businesses. This paper strives to fill this lacuna from the contextual perspective of the Global South by examining the risks and complexities of West African immigrant entrepreneurs in Accra, Ghana. This paper draws data from a survey of 779 respondents and in-depth interviews with nine key informants. The data from the survey were analysed using descriptive statistics (e.g., bivariate analysis) whilst the qualitative data were analysed thematically. The study indicates that work-related health hazards and accommodation difficulties are the main risks and difficulties immigrants encounter in their everyday business operations. Additionally, fatigue ensuing from excessive trekking, and exposure to the scorching sun are the specific health risks associated with their business. Coping strategies of immigrant entrepreneurs included resorting to support from family and friends in Ghana and back home. Others included reliance on their skills/expertise to earn a living, self-medication-usually pain killers intended to overcome fatigue, relying on migrant networks and doing other menial jobs. The findings suggest that whilst the business operations of the immigrant entrepreneurs offer possibility to eke a living, diverse risk factors and complexities counter the efforts of the immigrant retailers. The paper recommends that leadership of the immigrant groups should organise health education programs for their members towards ensuring that immigrant entrepreneurs adopt health safety practices such as limiting exposure to scorching sun, excessive fatigue and unsupervised self-medication.

Does healthcare decision-making capacity affect women's justification of sexual violence? The situation of sub-Saharan Africa

Sexual violence against women is commonly justified in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) despite international commitments to halt it. This study investigated the association between healthcare decision-making capacity and the justification of sexual violence among women in SSA. We used current datasets of 30 sub-Saharan African countries published between January 2010 and December 2018. The sample included 259,885 women who were in sexual unions. We extracted and analysed the data with Stata version 14. Chi-square test and multilevel logistic regression models were used to analyse the data. Results for the regression analysis were presented as adjusted odds ratios (AOR) with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The results showed that women who decided on their healthcare alone had lower odds [AOR=0.93; CI=0.91-0.96] of justifying sexual violence compared to those who were not deciding alone. We also found that women aged 45-49 [AOR=0.85; CI=0.82-0.89], those with higher education [AOR=0.26; CI=0.24-0.29], cohabiting women (AOR=0.82, CI=0.80-0.85], richest women [AOR= 0.58; CI=0.56-0.60], women living in urban areas [AOR=0.74; CI=0.73-0.76], and Christians [AOR=0.52; CI=0.51-0.54] had lower odds of justifying wife beating if a woman refuses to have sex with her partner. On the contrary, women who engaged in agriculture had higher odds of justifying sexual violence than those who were not working [AOR=1.07; CI=1.04-1.09]. Groups that should be prioritised with anti-sexual violence initiatives are the poor, rural residents, and young women. It is also vital to institute policies and interventions focused on educating men about women's right to make decisions, and why partner violence is unjust and intolerable.

Global burden of peripheral artery disease and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Peripheral artery disease is a growing public health problem. We aimed to estimate the global disease burden of peripheral artery disease, its risk factors, and temporospatial trends to inform policy and public measures.

METHODS

Data on peripheral artery disease were modelled using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 database. Prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality estimates of peripheral artery disease were extracted from GBD 2019. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rate of peripheral artery disease attributed to modifiable risk factors were also assessed.

FINDINGS

In 2019, the number of people aged 40 years and older with peripheral artery disease was 113 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99·2-128·4), with a global prevalence of 1·52% (95% UI 1·33-1·72), of which 42·6% was in countries with low to middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI). The global prevalence of peripheral artery disease was higher in older people, (14·91% [12·41-17·87] in those aged 80-84 years), and was generally higher in females than in males. Globally, the total number of DALYs attributable to modifiable risk factors in 2019 accounted for 69·4% (64·2-74·3) of total peripheral artery disease DALYs. The prevalence of peripheral artery disease was highest in countries with high SDI and lowest in countries with low SDI, whereas DALY and mortality rates showed U-shaped curves, with the highest burden in the high and low SDI quintiles.

INTERPRETATION

The total number of people with peripheral artery disease has increased globally from 1990 to 2019. Despite the lower prevalence of peripheral artery disease in males and low-income countries, these groups showed similar DALY rates to females and higher-income countries, highlighting disproportionate burden in these groups. Modifiable risk factors were responsible for around 70% of the global peripheral artery disease burden. Public measures could mitigate the burden of peripheral artery disease by modifying risk factors.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Maternal and child factors associated with late neonatal bathing practices in Nigeria: evidence from a national survey

BACKGROUND

Twohundred and seventy out of every thousand live births died in Nigeria in 2019. These deaths were attributable to infections, complications of preterm birth, and intrapartum-related conditions. The World Health Organization recommends withholding bathing of neonates until 24 h after birth or until their vital signs become stable to prevent hypothermia. Despite the link between neonatal bathing and thermal control, the subject is understudied in Nigeria. This study aimed at investigating the factors associated with late neonatal bathing practices in Nigeria.

METHODS

The study adopted a cross-sectional design and extracted data from the women's file of the 2018 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey. The unit of analysis was limited to 12,972 women who had complete data for the study. We applied chi-square test of independence to ascertain the association between the outcome variable and explanatory variables. At 95% confidence interval, two logistic regression models were built with Model I consisting of only maternal factors whilst Model II contained both maternal and child factors, and results were presented in adjusted odds ratio.

RESULTS

Descriptively, 12% (CI = 0.122-0.134) of the women bathed their neonates after 24 h of delivery. Inferentially, women with secondary/higher education [AOR = 1.30, CI = 1.05-1.61], the rich [AOR = 1.24, CI = 1.03-1.50], those with access to mass media [AOR = 131, CI = 1.15-1.50], women that professed other religions [AOR = 9.28, CI = 4.24-17.56], those who delivered in a health facility [AOR = 1.93, CI = 1.66-2.25], whose child was small in size at birth [AOR = 1.46, CI = 1.21-1.77] and delivered by caesarean section [AOR = 2.50, CI = 1.97-3.18] had higher odds of bathing their neonates 24 h after birth.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of women who practised late neonatal bathing was generally low. To improve the practice of late neonatal bathing, much-concerted effort should be directed to women's education and approaches to increasing receptivity of late neonatal bathing among pregnant women through the media. The Nigerian Ministry of Health should incorporate routine counselling on the risks of bathing newborns prematurely into antenatal and postnatal care services.

HIV testing among women of reproductive age in 28 sub-Saharan African countries: a multilevel modelling

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) remains one of the most significant public health challenges globally, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Although HIV testing is a vital step for both prevention and treatment, its uptake is still low in SSA. We therefore examined HIV testing in SSA and its individual/household and community factors among women of reproductive age groups (15-49 y).

METHODS

Demographic and Health Survey data collected between 2010 and 2020 from 28 SSA countries were used for this analysis. We analysed the coverage of HIV testing and individual/household and community factors on 384 416 women in the reproductive age groups (15-49 y). Bivariate and multivariable multilevel binary logistic regression analysis were conducted to select candidate variables and to identify significant explanatory variables associated with HIV testing and the results were presented using adjusted odd ratios (AORs) at 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

The pooled prevalence of HIV testing among women of reproductive age in SSA was 56.1% (95% CI 53.7 to 58.4), with the highest coverage found in Zambia (86.9%) and the lowest in Chad (6.1%). Age (45-49 y; AOR 0.30 [95% CI 0.15 to 0.62]), women's education level (secondary; AOR 1.97 [95% CI 1.36 to 2.84]) and economic status (richest; AOR 2.78 [95% CI 1.40 to 5.51]) were some of the individual/household factors associated with HIV testing. Similarly, religion (no religion; AOR 0.58 [95% CI 0.34 to 0.97]), marital status (married; AOR 0.69 [95% CI 0.50 to 0.95]) and comprehensive knowledge of HIV (yes; AOR 2.01 [95% CI 1.53 to 2.64]) were significantly associated individual/household factors for HIV testing. Meanwhile, place of residence (rural; AOR 0.65 [95% CI 0.45 to 0.94]) was found to be a significant community-level factor.

CONCLUSION

More than half of married women in SSA have been tested for HIV, with between-country variations. Both individual/household factors were associated with HIV testing. Stakeholders should therefore consider all above-mentioned factors to plan an integrated approach to enhancing HIV testing through health education, sensitization, counselling and empowering older and married women, those with no formal education, those who do not have comprehensive HIV/AIDS knowledge and those in rural areas.

Gender differences in the acceptance of wife-beating: evidence from 30 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) has cited domestic violence as an urgent global maternal and child health priority. Gender differences in the acceptance of wife-beating have not been explored at the multi-country level in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where the occurrence of wife-beating (36%) is greater than the global average (30%). It is against this backdrop that we examine the gender differences in the acceptance of wife beating in SSA.

METHODS

We used Demographic and Health Survey data from 30 SSA countries. Acceptance of wife beating among women and men was the principal outcome variable of interest. We employed Multiple correspondence analysis and logistic regression model as the primary estimation methods for this study. The descriptive statistics show that women had a higher acceptance rate (44%) of wife beating than men (25%). For the women sample, Mali, Democratic Republic of Congo, Chad, and Guinea had higher rates of acceptance of the wife beating (80.6%, 78.4%, 77.1% and 70.3% respectively) For the men, only Guinea had an acceptance rate above 50 percent.

RESULTS

We found that all else equal, women's acceptance of wife beating is higher for male-headed households than for female-headed households. Women without formal education were 3.1 times more likely to accept wife beating than those with higher education. Men with no formal education were 2.3 times more likely to accept wife beating than men with higher education. We found that polygamous women were comparable to polygamous men. Polygamous women were 1.2 times more likely to accept wife beating than those in monogamous marriages. Women were 1.2 times more likely to accept wives beating if they had extramarital relationships. Contrarily, men who engaged in extramarital affairs were 1.5 times more likely to justify wife beating. We also found that women's acceptance of wife beating decreases as they age. Men who decide on major household purchases and spending decisions on their earnings are more likely to accept wife beating. Corollary, women with similar gender and employment roles also accept wife beating. Finally, exposure to mass media is significantly associated with lower acceptance of wife beating for women and men.

CONCLUSION

We conclude that women have a higher acceptance rate of wife beating than men in SSA. Acceptance of wife beating differs significantly by country. Given the same level of education, women are more likely to accept wife beating than men. If women and men have similar levels of employment and gender roles, acceptance of wife beating is higher when men make major household purchasing decisions and and it is still higher even when the woman makes these decisions. Acceptance of wife beating is higher among young women and men, the uneducated, those in polygamous marriages, women, and men who engage in extra marital affairs, poor households and in rural areas. The findings indicate the need for policies and programs by SSA countries to truncate the high acceptance rate of wife beating, especially among women.

Socioeconomic inequalities in modern contraceptive use among women in Benin: a decomposition analysis

BACKGROUND

Contraceptive use is crucial to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3. Evidence of socioeconomic inequality in the use of modern contraceptives is essential to address the developing inequality in its utilisation given the low prevalence of contraceptive use among women in Benin. This study examined the socioeconomic inequalities in modern contraceptive use among women in Benin.

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional analysis of the 2017-18 Benin Demographic and Health Survey data. A weighted sample of 7,360 sexually active women of reproductive age was included in the study. We used a concentration curve to plot the cumulative proportion of women using modern contraception. Decomposition analysis was conducted to determine factors accounting for the socioeconomic disparities in modern contraceptive use.

RESULTS

We noted that the richest women had higher odds of modern contraceptive use (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.67, CI = 1.22-2.30) compared to the poorest women. Other factors that showed significant associations with modern contraception use were age, marital status, religious affiliation, employment status, parity, women's educational level, and ethnicity. We found that modern contraceptive use is highly concentrated among the rich, with rich women having a higher propensity of using modern contraception relative to the poor. Also, the disadvantaged to modern contraceptive use included the poor, those aged 45-49, married women, those working, those with four or more live births, rural residents, and women of Bariba and related ethnicity. Conversely, favourable concentration in modern contraceptive use was found among the rich, women aged 20-24, the divorced, women with two live births, the highly educated, those with media exposure, and women of Yoruba and related ethnicity.

CONCLUSION

The study has shown that wealthy women are more likely to utilize contraceptives than the poor. This is because wealthy women could afford both the service itself and the travel costs to the health facility, hence overcoming any economic barriers to using modern contraception. Other factors such as age, marital status, religion, employment status, parity, mother's educational level, and ethnicity were associated with contraceptive use in Benin. The Benin government and other stakeholders should develop family planning intercession techniques that address both the supply and demand sides of the equation, with a focus on reaching the illiterate and under-resourced population without admittance to modern contraception.

Social Determinants of Health and Happiness of Older Adults in Ghana: Secondary Analysis of Ghana SAGE Wave 2 Longitudinal Data

Background

Social determinants of health [SDOH] and happiness have received meaningful consideration as foundational concepts in the field of public health. However, the relationship between the SDOH and happiness of older adults have not received the requisite recognition in Ghana. This study examined the relationship between the SDOH and happiness of older adults in Ghana.

Methods

The study used data from the 2014/2015 Ghana Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) Wave 2. Data was analysed using the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) technique to investigate the direct, indirect and covariances of the SDOH and happiness of older adults.

Results

The results showed positive relationship between the SDOH and happiness among older adults. The economic stability (β = 0.07), neighbourhood and built environment (β = 0.02, P < 0.001), access to quality education (β = 0.56, P < 0.01), access to healthy food (β = 0.48, P < 0.001) social and community context (β = 0.41, P < 0.05), and access to quality healthcare (β = 0.80, P < 0.001) had direct relationship with happiness of the older adults in Ghana.

Conclusion

This study shows that the conditions in which older adults were born, live, learn, work, play, worship, and age (SDOH) positively impact their happiness in later life. Neighbourhood and physical environment influence the effect of quality education on happiness of older adults. Social policies and interventions aiming at happiness of older adults should consider the social determinants of health and the mediating effects of food on happiness through quality education, and quality of healthcare system.

Early Sexual Debut and Its Associated Factors Among Young Women Aged 15-24 in Mali: A Multilevel Analysis

Early sexual debut is associated with increased risk of several sexual and reproductive health problems, including unwanted pregnancies and sexually transmitted infections. Hence, determining factors that promote early sexual initiation is significant to guide policy and inform interventions aimed to promote the health of young people through to adulthood. This study examined the prevalence of early sexual debut and its associated factors among young women in Mali. Using cross-sectional nationally representative data from the 2018 Mali Demographic and Health Survey, a total of 4063 young women aged 15-24 were included in the study. Multilevel binary logistic regression analysis was done to determine the factors associated with early sexual debut. The results were presented using adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The prevalence of early sexual debut in Mali was 17.8% (95% CI; 16-19.7%). Young women who attended higher school had lower odds of early sexual debut (aOR = 0.10, 95% CI; 0.01-0.82) compared to young women who had no formal education. Young women from richest households had lower odds of early sexual debut compared to those from the poorest households (aOR = 0.48, 95% CI; 0.27-0.82). Young women from households with large family size also had lower odds of experiencing early sexual debut compared to those in small family size (aOR = 0.81, 95% CI; 0.66-0.99). Furthermore, the odds of early sexual debut were lower among young women in Koulikoro (aOR = 0.59, 95% CI; 0.39-0.90), Sikasso (aOR = 0.35, 95% CI; 0.21-0.56), Segou (aOR = 0.40, 95% CI; 0.25-0.64), and Mopti (aOR = 0.44, 95% CI; 0.23-0.82) regions compared to young women in Kayes region. Higher odds of early sexual debut were found among currently employed compared to not currently employed young women (aOR = 1.74, 95% CI; 1.42-2.12) and currently married compared to not currently married young women (aOR = 4.64, 95% CI; 3.64-5.92). Young women from the Peulh ethnic groups compared to those from the Bambara ethnic groups were at a higher odds of early sexual debut (aOR = 1.43, 95% CI; 1.03-1.99). The findings suggest the need for interventions aimed at addressing early sexual debut among young women. These can include emphasizing the promotion and importance of female education, addressing the cultural practices that promote negative sexual norms/practices such as child marriages, and ensuring social change through efforts such as creating employment or economic opportunities for families.

Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis and its aetiologies, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000-277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11-2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400-145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947-1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6-8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 3·3 (2·8-3·9) per 100 000 population in 2019. The highest proportion of total all-age meningitis deaths in 2019 was attributable to S pneumoniae (18·1% [17·1-19·2]), followed by N meningitidis (13·6% [12·7-14·4]) and K pneumoniae (12·2% [10·2-14·3]). Between 1990 and 2019, H influenzae showed the largest reduction in the number of deaths among children younger than 5 years (76·5% [69·5-81·8]), followed by N meningitidis (72·3% [64·4-78·5]) and viruses (58·2% [47·1-67·3]).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing meningitis mortality over the past three decades. However, more meningitis-related deaths might be prevented by quickly scaling up immunisation and expanding access to health services. Further reduction in the global meningitis burden should be possible through low-cost multivalent vaccines, increased access to accurate and rapid diagnostic assays, enhanced surveillance, and early treatment.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Stakeholders' perceptions of the trends in contraceptive prevalence rate and total fertility rate in Ghana

BACKGROUND

Studies in Ghana have reported discrepancies between trends in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (CPR). Yet, there is limited empirical literature on stakeholders' perceptions on the trends in CPR and TFR in Ghana. We, therefore, examined the perceptions of key stakeholders about the documented trends in CPR and TFR in Ghana.

METHODS

We adopted an exploratory (qualitative) research design with a qualitative approach of data collection from stakeholders in Ghana, focusing on the trends of the TFR and CPR. The Consolidated Criteria for Reporting Qualitative Studies (COREQ) checklist provided additional guidance for reporting the study results. We employed the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) as a theoretical framework/construct to explain and predict individual changes in health behaviors resulting in trends in CPR and TFR from stakeholders' perspectives and analyzed the data using framework analysis approach.

RESULTS

Two main themes emerged from the data: contraceptive prevalence and total fertility ratio, with five sub-themes identified: barriers to contraception, motivations for contraception uptake, unmet need for family planning, induced abortion, and effectiveness of planning programs. Specifically, participants indicated that there is a discrepancy between the trends of CPR and TFR based on the Ghana Demographic and Health Survey, conducted between 1988 and 2014. The high unmet needs for contraceptives were attributed to CRP trends, whilst abstinence, infertility, and high demands for induced abortions were identified to impact the TFR trends significantly.

CONCLUSION

The findings show that an extensive quantitative enquiry into the exact relationships between Ghana's CPR and TFR as well as the contributions of abstinence, infertility, and induced abortion are worth considering.

Contraceptive use pattern based on the number and composition of children among married women in sub-Saharan Africa: a multilevel analysis

BACKGROUND

The relationship between composition of children and contraception use has received limited scholarly attention in sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, we examined the relationship between contraceptive methods, the number and composition of children in SSA.

METHODS

Data on 21 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries that had a Demographic and Health Survey on or before 2015 were analysed. We applied a multilevel multinomial logistic regression model to assess the influence of family composition on contraceptive use. Adjusted relative risk ratio (aRRR) and 95% CI were estimated. The significant level was set at p < 0.05. All the analyses were conducted using weighted data.

RESULTS

Women who had one son and two daughters (aRRR = 0.85, CI = 0.75, 0.95), two sons and one daughter (aRRR = 0.81 CI = 0.72, 0.92), one son and three daughters (aRRR = 0.66, CI = 0.54, 0.80), two sons and two daughters (aRRR = 0.59, CI = 0.50, 0.69), and three or more sons (aRRR = 0.75, CI = 0.63, 0.91) were less likely to use temporary modern contraceptive methods. Those with two sons and two daughters were less likely to use traditional methods (aRRR = 0.52, CI = 0.35, 0.78). Women in the older age group (35-49 years) were less likely to use temporary modern methods (aRRR = 0.60; 95%CI; 0.57, 0.63). However, this group of women were more likely to use permanent (sterilization) (aRRR = 1.71; 95%CI; 1.50, 1.91) and traditional methods (aRRR = 1.28; 95%CI; 1.14, 1.43).

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that contraception needs of women vary based on the composition of their children, hence a common approach or intervention will not fit. As a result, contraception interventions ought to be streamlined to meet the needs of different categories of women. The findings can inform policymakers and public health professionals in developing effective strategies to improve contraceptive use in SSA.

An assessment of Individual, community and state-level factors associated with inadequate iodised salt consumption among pregnant and lactating women in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Iodine deficiency is the most common cause of thyroid disease, and in its severe form can result in cretinism; the impairment of the brain development of a child. Pregnant and breastfeeding women's daily iodine requirement is elevated due to physiological changes in iodine metabolism, requiring up to double the iodine intake of other women. Although Nigeria was the first African country to be declared iodine sufficient in 2007, recent evidence has shown that only about seven in ten households consume salt with adequate iodine content (≥ 15 ppm), with variation across states. The study aimed to assess the Individual- and household-, community- and state-level factors associated with inadequate iodised salt consumption among pregnant women and breastfeeding mothers in Nigeria.

METHODS

This study utilised the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey to assess factors associated with inadequate iodised salt consumption among 4911 pregnant women and breastfeeding mothers in Nigeria. The descriptive analysis was presented using frequencies and percentages. The prevalence of adequate and inadequate iodised salt consumption with their 95% confidence interval were computed. Several multi-level mixed effect log-binomial logistic regressions were used to explore the factors associated with inadequate iodised salt consumption. The Loglikelihood, Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion were used to assess the goodness of fit of the models. All analyses were adjusted for the complex survey design and analysed using Stata 15.0 at p < 0.05.

RESULTS

The prevalence of inadequate iodised salt consumption among pregnant and breastfeeding mothers was 35.2% (95% CI: 33.1-37.5). Inadequate consumption of iodised salt was highest among pregnant and breastfeeding women aged 45-49 years (48.2%; 95%CI: 37.8-58.8), as well as those with non-formal education (52.7%; 95%CI: 47.7-57.6) and no education (34.6%; 95%CI: 31.3-38.1). Our findings revealed that pregnant and breastfeeding women living in the poorer, middle, richer and richest quintiles were 32%, 47%, 35% and 62% less likely to consume salt with inadequate iodine compared to those in the poorest households. Those with non-formal education were 1.8 times (95%CI: 1.36-2.42) more likely to consume salt with deficient iodine than those without education. Pregnant and breastfeeding mothers residing in moderately and most deprived communities were 3.5 (95%CI: 2.57-4.73) and 4.7 times (95%CI: 3.38-6.55) more likely to consume salt with inadequate iodine than those from least deprived communities. Women in the Northwestern region and those from the Southwestern region were 4.0 and 3.5 times, respectively, more likely to consume salt with inadequate iodine compared to pregnant and breastfeeding women residing in the North-Central region.

CONCLUSIONS

The study has shown that inadequate consumption of iodised salt dominates among older pregnant and breastfeeding women. Also, women with non-formal education have higher prospects of consuming salt with lesser iodine. There is a need to enhance women's economic opportunities and empowerment as well as sensitisation on their nutritional requirements during pregnancy and breastfeeding. Both formal and non-formal educational initiatives on nutrition are extremely important and should be prioritised by the Nigerian government in its efforts to encourage the consumption of iodised salt among pregnant and lactating mothers. Additionally, health promotion interventions that seek to advocate iodised salt intake must be prioritised by the actors in the health sector.

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050.

METHODS

Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.

FINDINGS

In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Assessing the combined effect of household cooking fuel and urbanicity on acute respiratory symptoms among under-five years in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

This study sought to investigate the association between urbanicity (rural-urban residency), the use of solid biomass cooking fuels and the risk of Acute Respiratory Infections (ARIs) among children under the age of 5 in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

Methods

Cross-sectional data from the most recent surveys of the Demographic and Health Survey Program conducted in 31 sub-Saharan African countries were pooled for the analysis. The outcome variables, cough and rapid short breath were derived from questions that asked mothers if their children under the age of 5 suffered from cough and short rapid breath in the past two weeks preceding the survey. To examine the associations, multivariable negative log-log regression models were fitted for each outcome variable.

Results

Higher odds ratios of cough occurred among children in urban households that use unclean cooking fuel (aOR = 1.05 95% CI = 1.01, 1.08). However, lower odds ratios were observed for rural children in homes that use clean cooking fuel (aOR = 0.93 95% CI = 0.87, 0.99) relative to children in urban homes using clean cooking fuel. We also found higher odds ratios of short rapid breaths among children in rural households that use unclean cooking fuel compared with urban residents using clean cooking fuel (aOR = 1.12 95% CI = 1.08, 1.17).

Conclusion

Urbanicity and the use of solid biomass fuel for cooking were associated with an increased risk of symptoms of ARIs among children under five years in SSA. Thus, policymakers and stakeholders need to design and implement strategies that minimize children's exposure to pollutants from solid biomass cooking fuel. Such interventions could reduce the burden of respiratory illnesses in SSA and contribute to the realization of Sustainable Development Goal 3.9, which aims at reducing the number of diseases and deaths attributable to hazardous chemicals and pollution of air, water and soil.

Sexual Coercion and Harassment of Students with Disabilities in a Public University in Ghana

There is limited literature on sexual coercion/harassment of university students with disabilities, hence we, explored this phenomenon in Ghana, using a sequential explanatory-mixed method design that involved 119 (62 males and 57 females) students with various disabilities in the quantitative study and 12 (7 females and 5 males) students in the qualitative phase using questionnaire and interview guide for data collection respectively. We found that participants were not aware of the university's sexual coercion/harassment policy nor involved in its formulation/dissemination. Persistently asking for sexual relationships, pressurized for outings, attempted/forced kissing, being sexually looked at, engaging in uncomfortable sexual conversations, and sexually provocative touch were common. The main perpetrators of these acts included physically able people (24.4%), colleagues with disabilities (14.3%), and Lecturers/Administrative staff (10.9%). We recommend policies and programs' strengthening to protect students with disabilities from such unwarranted acts.

Association between women's household decision-making autonomy and health insurance enrollment in sub-saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Out of pocket payment for healthcare remains a barrier to accessing health care services in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Women's decision-making autonomy may be a strategy for healthcare access and utilization in the region. There is a dearth of evidence on the link between women's decision-making autonomy and health insurance enrollment. We, therefore, investigated the association between married women's household decision making autonomy and health insurance enrollment in SSA.

METHODS

Demographic and Health Survey data of 29 countries in SSA conducted between 2010 and 2020 were analyzed. Both bivariate and multilevel logistic regression analyses were carried out to investigate the relationship between women's household decision-making autonomy and health insurance enrollment among married women. The results were presented as an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and the 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

The overall coverage of health insurance among married women was 21.3% (95% CI; 19.9-22.7%), with the highest and lowest coverage in Ghana (66.7%) and Burkina Faso (0.5%), respectively. The odds of health insurance enrollment was higher among women who had household decision-making autonomy (AOR = 1.33, 95% CI; 1.03-1.72) compared to women who had no household decision-making autonomy. Other covariates such as women's age, women's educational level, husband's educational level, wealth status, employment status, media exposure, and community socioeconomic status were found to be significantly associated with health insurance enrollment among married women.

CONCLUSION

Health insurance coverage is commonly low among married women in SSA. Women's household decision-making autonomy was found to be significantly associated with health insurance enrollment. Health-related policies to improve health insurance coverage should emphasize socioeconomic empowerment of married women in SSA.

Prevalence, Trends, and Factors Associated with Teen Motherhood in Nigeria: An Analysis of the 2008-2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys

Background: Teen pregnancy and childbearing are common in Nigeria, and understanding the complexities, such as sociodemographics and economic factors including sexual and reproductive health knowledge and awareness among adolescents over time can trigger innovative approaches and interventions. This study intends to capture the patterns and associated factors of teen motherhood among sexually active adolescents (15-19 years) between 2008 and 2018. Methods: The study data was extracted from 2008, 2013, and 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys. Descriptive analysis was presented using frequencies and percentages; multivariable analysis was conducted using log-binomial logistic regression at a p-value <0.05. All analyses were performed using Stata 15.0, weighted and adjusted for the complex survey design and population size. Results: The prevalence of teen motherhood increased between the three successive survey waves (50.9% vs. 52.4% vs. 55.2%) from 2008, 2013, and 2018. Although, the pooled adjusted analysis revealed no significant change over the 10-year period. Knowledge of modern contraceptive methods, primary education, non-Catholic Christians, residing in the South-South region, and those currently or formerly married were associated with increased risk of teen motherhood. There was an inverse relationship between teen motherhood and wealth status; lower wealth status was associated with high adolescent pregnancy and childbearing. Conclusion: This study revealed an increase in the proportion of teen pregnancy and childbearing in Nigeria. Notably, there exist variations across age groups, geographic location, educational level, religious belief, marital and economic status. Interventions that ensure comprehensive sexuality education, girl child education, and economic empowerment especially for school dropouts are advocated to reduce teen motherhood.

Non-adherence to WHO's recommended 8-contact model: geospatial analysis of the 2017 Maternal Health Survey

INTRODUCTION

Evidence shows that most women in Ghana do not meet the minimum 8-contact model for antenatal care as recommended by WHO with only 31.2%-41.9% of them meeting the recommendation. To the best of our knowledge, no study in Ghana has examined women's noncompliance with the WHO's recommended 8-contact model for antenatal care using geospatial analysis, as this study sets out to do.

METHODS

We sourced data from the recent version of the Ghana Maternal Health Survey which was executed in 2017. A sample of 10,077 women with complete data participated in this study. The link between the explanatory variables and the outcome variable was investigated using binary and multivariate logistic regression models and Spatial analyses such as spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I), hotspot, cluster and outlier analysis, and geographically weighted regression were conducted using ArcMap version 10.7.

RESULTS

Districts found in the north-eastern and south-western parts of the country were more likely to experience noncompliance with ANC. Women staying within the middle belt without health insurance were more likely (17-29%) to be noncompliant with ANC. Women with low community socioeconomic status were found to be more likely (17-34%) to be noncompliant with ANC in the eastern parts of Ghana.

CONCLUSION

The study has shown that in order to achieve targets one and three of Sustainable Development Goal 3, the government of Ghana, the Ministry of Health, together with the Ghana Health Service may have to intensify health education in the identified areas to highlight the importance of adherence to the WHO recommendations on ANC 8-contact model.

Inequalities in the prevalence of skilled birth attendance in Ghana between 1993 and 2014

BACKGROUND

Globally, maternal and neonatal health remains a public health priority, particularly for resource-constrained regions like sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Skilled birth attendance (SBA) is essential in promoting maternal and neonatal health. This study investigated the inequalities in the prevalence of SBA in Ghana using data from the Ghana Demographic and Health Survey (GDHS) between 1993 and 2014.

METHODS

Data were analysed using the World Health Organization's Health Equity Assessment Toolkit software. In analysing the data, we first disaggregated SBA by four inequality stratifiers: wealth index, education, residence, and region. Second, we measured the inequality through summary measures, namely difference, population attributable risk, ratio, and population attributable fraction. A 95% confidence interval was constructed for point estimates to measure statistical significance.

RESULTS

Throughout the period, SBA was highest among women in the highest wealth quintile and those with a secondary or higher level of education. The analysis also indicated that SBA was highly concentrated among urban residents in 1993 (80.78 [95% uncertainty interval {UI} 76.20-84.66]) and persisted to 2014 (91.55 [95% UI 88.80-93.68]). In 1993, Northern region recorded the lowest prevalence of SBA in Ghana (15.69 [95% UI 11.20-21.54]) and the region consistently recorded the lowest SBA prevalence even into 2014 (38.21 [95% UI 27.44-50.27]).

CONCLUSIONS

There are significant inequalities in SBA across education, wealth, residence, and region in Ghana. To enhance SBA, there is the need for policymakers and interventionists to design and develop targeted policies and programs that are tailored to the needs of the subpopulations at risk of low SBA: women with no formal education, those within the poorest wealth quintile, rural-dwelling women and women in the Northern region. This will facilitate the uptake of SBA and ultimately translate into the realization of Sustainable Development Goals 3.1 and 3.2.

Age, geographical and socio-economic related inequalities in contraceptive prevalence: evidence from the 1993-2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys

BACKGROUND

Contraceptives afford individuals the opportunity to meet their reproductive needs and reduce maternal mortality. We aimed at assessing the trend and inequalities of contraceptive use in Ghana based on the 1993-2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys.

METHODS

We used the World Health Organization's Health Equity Assessment Toolkit (HEAT) software in analysing the data. We adopted two approaches for the analysis. First, we disaggregated inequalities in contraceptive use using four equity stratifiers: wealth index, education, residence, and region. Second, summary measures (D), (PAR), (R), and (PAF) were also employed. A 95% uncertainty interval (UI) was constructed for point estimates to measure statistical significance.

RESULTS

Contraceptive prevalence increased from 20.3% in 1993 to 26.7% in 2014. The contraceptive prevalence among women aged 20-49 increased from 20.6% [95% UI = 19.1, 22.3] in 1993 to 26.8% [95% UI = 24.9, 28.9] in 2014 and this exceeded the increase that was recorded among those aged 15-19 (from 13% [95 UI = 8.7, 19] to 18% [95% UI = 11.5, 28.6]), in the same period. It was evident that substantial inequality existed with respect to contraceptive use, from 1993 to 2014, with widest inequality occurring in 2003 (PAF = 2.7, 95% UI = -16.6-21.9; D = 17.4, 95% UI = 12.7-22.1). In terms of wealth index, the least inequality was observed in 2014 (PAR = 1.3, 95% UI = -1-3.6; D = 5.9, 95% UI = -0.1-12). Regarding education, the widest inequality occurred in 1993 (PAF = 138.6, UI = 132.1-145.1; D = 40.1, 95% UI = 34.4-45.9). With place of residence, the widest gap in inequality occurred in 1993 (PAF = 51.2, 95% UI = 46.2-56.3; D = 15.3, 95% UI = 11.8-18.7). There was inequality in contraceptive use with respect to sub-national regions. In 2014, the Difference (D = 21, 95% UI = 14.6-27.4) and the PAF (PAF = 20.9, 95% UI = 11.2 - 30.5) measures revealed substantial absolute and relative regional inequality between the regions.

CONCLUSION

There was a steady increase in contraceptive use from 20.3% in 1993 to 26.7% in 2014. Nevertheless, the percentage change is minimal. The trends of inequality indicate that inequalities in contraceptive use was evident across the dimension of age, place of residence, wealth index, education, and region. Yet, there was a substantial reduction in inequalities related to contraceptive use in 2014. Therefore, targeting adolescents, women in rural areas, low wealth quintile, and those with no formal education is key to substantially improving contraceptive use across the country.

Assessment and associated factors of comprehensive HIV knowledge in an at-risk population: a cross-sectional study from 19,286 young persons in Nigeria

Background:

The prevalence of HIV among young people aged 15–19 years in Nigeria is estimated as 3.5%, the highest among West and Central African countries. Comprehensive knowledge of HIV is associated with increased awareness of preventive interventions and a reduction in the spread of HIV. Therefore, this article seeks to assess and determine the associated factors of comprehensive HIV knowledge among youths in Nigeria.

Methods:

The study used the 2018 Nigerian Demographic Health Survey, a cross-sectional survey that employed a two-stage cluster sampling method. Comprehensive knowledge of HIV was assessed based on five questions. The data were analysed separately for men and women aged 15–24 years. A multivariable log-binomial regression model was used to determine factors associated with comprehensive HIV knowledge. All analysis was performed using Stata 15.0 and adjusted for weighting, clustering and stratification.

Results:

A total of 15,267 women and 4019 men aged 15–24 years were included in this study. The prevalence of comprehensive knowledge of HIV was higher among women than among men (42.6% versus 33.7%; p < 0.001) and lower among younger ages 15–17 years compared with other ages. The findings revealed that age, ethnicity, wealth, education and exposure to mass media were statistically significant factors associated with comprehensive knowledge of HIV. In addition, religion, place of residence, phone ownership, internet use, currently working and having initiated sex were significant factors among women and modern contraceptive use among men.

Conclusion:

Key findings from this study imply that public health programmes in Nigeria should focus on providing information on HIV/AIDS using different approaches, including comprehensive sex education as well as health promotion and education strategies in the formal and informal sectors. Because media exposure is a common and cost-effective way of public health promotion and education in modern times, emphasis could also be placed on using this channel to reach the target population.

Socio-economic disadvantage and quality Antenatal Care (ANC) in Sierra Leone: Evidence from Demographic and Health Survey

INTRODUCTION

Reduction of maternal mortality remains a global priority as highlighted by the third Sustainable Development Goal (SDG). This is critical in the case of Sierra Leone as the country is one of three (3) countries with the highest maternal mortality ratio globally, thus 1,120 per 100,000 live births. The approximate lifetime risk of maternal mortality in the country is 1 in 17, relative to 1 in 3,300 in high-income countries. These raise doubt about the quality of the continuum of maternal healthcare in the country, particularly antenatal care and as a result, the objective of the present study is to investigate the association between socio-economic disadvantage and quality antenatal care service utilisation as well as associated correlates in Sierra Leone.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study used data from the most recent Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) of Sierra Leone. Only women who had given birth in the five years preceding the survey were included, which is 6,028. Quality antenatal care was defined as receipt of recommended ANC services including uptake of recommended pregnancy drugs (e.g. Fansidar and iron supplement); injections (e.g. tetanus injection) and having some samples (e.g. blood and urine sample) and health status indicators (e.g. blood pressure) taken. An index was created from these indicators with scores ranging from 0 to 6. The scores 0 to 5 were labelled as "incomplete" and 6 was labelled as "complete" and this was used to create a dummy variable. In analysing the data, descriptive analysis was done using chi-square test as well as an inferential analysis using bivariate and multivariate models.

RESULTS

Socio-economic disadvantaged [1.46 (1.09, 1.95), place of residence [2.29 (1.43, 3.67)], frequency of listening to radio [1.58 (1.20, 2.09)], health insurance coverage [3.48 (1.40, 8.64)], getting medical help for self: permission to go [0.53(0.42, 0.69) were seen to have significant relationship with quality of ANC utilized by women during pregnancy. Also, women Mende ethnicity are more likely to utilise quality ANC compared to women from the Temne ethnicity [2.58 (1.79, 3.72)].

CONCLUSION

Policy makers could consider measures to boost patronage of quality ANC in Sierra Leone by targeting the socio-economically disadvantaged women. Targeting these sub-groups with pro- maternal and child health (MCH) interventions would help Sierra Leone achieve Goal 3 of the SDGs.

Women's household decision-making power and contraceptive use in Mali

BACKGROUND

Utilization of contraceptives remains low in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa despite evidence of its benefits. Several factors are associated with contraceptive use. However, little is known about the association between women's decision-making capacity and the utilization of contraceptives in Mali. This study sought to determine the effect of women's household decision-making power on contraceptive use in Mali.

METHODS

This study involved a cross-sectional analysis of data from the 2018 Mali Demographic and Health Survey. A total of 7893 married women were included in the final analysis. A binary logistic regression analysis was conducted with statistical significance set at p < 0.05.

RESULTS

Contraceptive use among married women in Mali was 17.1%. The odds of using contraceptives were higher among women with joint decision-making with their husbands on how to spend respondent's earnings [aOR = 1.79; 95% CI = 1.12, 2.85], joint decision-making with their husbands on what to do with their husband's earnings [aOR = 1.43; 95% CI = 1.12, 1.83], and joint decision-making with husband on large household purchases [aOR = 1.32; 95% CI = 1.10, 1.59]. Deciding alone on a visit to family or relatives was associated with lower odds of contraceptive use [AOR = 0.72; 95% CI = 0.58, 0.89].

CONCLUSION

The study has revealed that joint household decision-making is positively associated with contraceptive use. Therefore, to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3, the ministry for the advancement of women, children and families and related stakeholders must unearth strategies to empower women in joint decision-making and encourage men's involvement in contraceptive decision-making.

Trends and inequalities in children aged 6-59 months who received Vitamin A supplementation: evidence from the 2003, 2008 and 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey

BACKGROUND

Vitamin A deficiency is considered a public health issue, particularly among children under 5 years. Vitamin A supplementation is among the ten key essential nutrition actions put in place to tackle malnutrition in children and helps to reduce under-five mortality by almost a quarter in Vitamin A deficient areas. We, therefore, examined inequalities in Vitamin A uptake among children 6-59 months in Ghana.

METHODS

We used data from the 2003, 2008, and 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys. The WHO's HEAT version 3.1 software was used for all the analyses. We adopted six equity stratifiers (maternal age, economic status, level of education, place of residence, sex of the child, and region) to disaggregate Vitamin A supplementation among children 6-59 months. Four measures were used to compute inequality, namely, Difference (D), Population Attributable Risk (PAR), Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) and Ratio (R).

RESULTS

Over the 11-year period, the proportion of children who received Vitamin A supplementation declined from 78.6% to 65.2%. There were inequalities by maternal age, particularly in 2003 (D = 13.1, CI: 2.3, 23.9; PAF = 0.5, CI: - 12.3, 13.2). The widest inequality in Vitamin A supplementation by economic status was noted in 2003 (D = 8.8, CI: 3.3-14.2; PAF = 8.3, CI: 5, 11.5). In terms of sex, the indices revealed mild inequality in Vitamin A supplementation throughout the period studied. For education, the highest inequality was observed in 2014 (D = 11.6, CI: 6.0, 17.1), while the highest inequality in terms of place of residence was observed in 2003 (D = 4.0, CI: - 0.1-8.4). In the case of region, substantial inequality was noted in 2014 (D = 34.7, CI: 22.6, 46.8; PAF = 21.1, CI: 15.3, 27).

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that there is a need for the government of Ghana to deploy targeted interventions to enhance the uptake of Vitamin A supplementation among the most disadvantaged subpopulations. Interventions targeted at these disadvantaged populations should be pro-poor in nature. In addition, the inequalities in the dimension of place of residence were mixed, favoring both rural and urban children at different points. This calls for a comprehensive and all-inclusive approach that enhances Vitamin A supplementation uptake in an equitable manner in both areas of residence. Empowerment of women through formal education could be an important step toward improving Vitamin A supplementation among children in Ghana.

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.

RESULTS

We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group.

CONCLUSIONS

As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

Inequalities in the use of insecticide-treated nets by pregnant women in Ghana, 2011 and 2017

BACKGROUND

Pregnant women and children are the most vulnerable group of people usually affected by malaria. The use of insecticide-treated nets is one of the proven interventions for mitigating malaria and its associated deaths in endemic regions, including Ghana. Meanwhile, there is limited evidence on the extent of inequality in insecticide-treated nets use by pregnant women in Ghana. This study assessed the inequalities in insecticide-treated nets use by pregnant women in Ghana.

METHODS

Data from the 2011 and 2017 versions of the Ghana Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys were used. The 2019 updated World Health Organization (WHO) HEAT software (version 3.1) was used for all analyses. Four equity stratifiers were employed to disaggregate insecticide-treated nets use by pregnant women in Ghana. These are economic status, level of education, place of residence, and sub-national region. Four measures were used to compute inequality namely Difference (D), Population Attributable risk (PAR), Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) and Ratio (R).

RESULTS

The analyses indicated a rise in pregnant women's insecticide-treated nets use from 32.6% in 2011 to 49.7% in 2017. Except sub-national region, all the factors showed mild inequality in insecticide-treated nets use. For instance, with respect to the economic status of pregnant women, only a slight inequality was exhibited by one of the simple measures in both 2011 (R = 0.3; 95% UI = 0.2-0.6) and 2017 (R = 0.5; 95% UI = 0.3-0.7). Marginal inequality in insecticide-treated nets use was noted in 2011 (R = 0.6; 95% UI = 0.5-0.9) and 2017 (R = 0.8; 95% UI = 0.6-0.9) for level of education. In the same vein, slight inequality was realized with respect to place of residence in 2011 (R = 0.4; 95% UI = 0.3-0.6) and 2017 (R = 0.6; 95% UI = 0.5-0.7). For sub-national region, both simple (D = 50.5; 95% UI = 30.7-70.4) and complex (PAF = 91.3; 95% UI = 72.3-110.3) measures demonstrated substantial inequality in 2011. In the case of 2017, considerable inequality in insecticide-treated nets use occurred (D = 58; 95% UI = 42.2-73.8, PAF = 51.9; 95% UI = 36.2-67.6).

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, insecticide-treated nets utilization by pregnant Ghanaian women increased between 2011 and 2017. The findings show that Ghana's Ministry of Health in collaboration with anti-malarial non-governmental organizations must review patterns of insecticide-treated nets distribution and intensify advocacy among educated pregnant women, those in urban settings and the rich, to assuage the magnitude of inequality.

Women's empowerment indicators and short- and long-acting contraceptive method use: evidence from DHS from 11 countries

BACKGROUND

With a population of about 1.1 billion, sub-Saharan Africa is projected to overtake Eastern, Southern and Central Asia to become the most populous region by 2060. One effective approach for slowing this rapid population growth is the use of modern contraception and this may be short-acting or long acting. Previous studies have explored the association between women empowerment indicators contraception use, however, there is limited evidence on how women empowerment indicators associate with type of contraception. Hence the present study investigated the association between women empowerment indicators and type of contraception used by women in 11 sub-Saharan African countries.

METHODS

We utilised Demographic and Health Survey data of 22,637 women from 11 countries, collected between 2018 and 2021. The outcome variable was type of contraception used. Descriptive and inferential analyses were executed. The descriptive analysis reflected women empowerment indicators and the proportion of women using contraceptives. Multinomial logistic regression was considered for the inferential analysis. The results for the multinomial logistic regression were presented as adjusted odds ratios (aORs) along with the respective 95% confidence intervals (CIs) signifying precision. The sample weight (wt) was used to account for the complex survey (svy) design. All the analyses were done with Stata version 13 and SPSS version 25.

RESULTS

The study showed that on the average, 15.95% of the women do not use modern contraceptives, whilst 30.67% and 53.38% use long-acting and short-acting contraceptives respectively. The adjusted models showed that women who were working had higher odds of using long-acting (aOR = 1.44, CI 1.28-1.62) and short-acting (aOR = 2.00, CI 1.79-2.24) methods compared with those who were not working. The analysis revealed higher likelihood of long-acting method use among women with high decision-making capacity (aOR = 1.27, CI 1.09-1.47) compared with women with low decision-making capacity. Women with medium knowledge level had a higher likelihood (aOR = 1.54, 1.09-2.17) of using long-acting methods than their counterparts with low knowledge level.

CONCLUSION

Our findings show that most women in the 11 countries use modern contraceptives, however, different empowerment indicators align with different contraceptive type. It therefore behoves governments of the studied countries to review current interventions and embrace new ones that are more responsive to the peculiar contraception needs of empowered and non-empowered women.

Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Women empowerment indicators and uptake of child health services in sub-Saharan Africa: a multilevel analysis using cross-sectional data from 26 countries

BACKGROUND

The sustainable development goal 3, target 2, seeks to reduce under-five mortality to as low as 25 deaths per 1000 live births by 2030. As such, seeking child health services has become a priority concern for all countries, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Evidence suggests that empowered women are more likely to seek child health services. Hence, this study examined the association between women empowerment indicators and uptake of child health services in SSA.

METHODS

The study used data from the Demographic and Health Surveys of 26 SSA countries, which were conducted between 2010 and 2019. Two different samples were considered in the study: a total of 12 961 children within the vaccination age of 12-23, and 9489 children under age 5 with diarrhoea symptoms in the last 2 weeks before the survey. Women empowerment indicators comprised disagreement with reasons to justify wife beating, decision-making power and knowledge level, while child health services constituted complete vaccination uptake and seeking diarrhoea treatment. Frequencies, percentages and multivariable, multilevel binary logistic regression models were employed.

RESULTS

The study shows that women with high decision-making power [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.20, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.07, 1.35] had higher odds of seeking treatment for childhood diarrhoea compared to those with low decision-making power. It was also observed that among children aged 12-23 months [AOR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.14, 1.43], mothers had higher odds of seeking diarrhoea treatment for them compared to those who were aged less than 12 months. Children whose mothers had medium decision-making power [AOR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.19, 1.41] were more likely to seek complete immunization for their children compared to those with low decision-making power. Also, those with medium [AOR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.07, 1.31] and high knowledge [AOR = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.10, 1.42] had higher odds of completing immunization for their children compared to those with low knowledge. Women with medium acceptance had lower odds [AOR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.67, 0.83] of completing immunization for their children compared with those with low acceptance of wife beating.

CONCLUSIONS

This study has demonstrated a strong association between women empowerment indicators and the uptake of child health services. Therefore, efforts should be made to seek policy tools to empower women to help improve the well-being of women and the children they care for.