Diagnostic accuracy of digital technologies compared with 12-lead ECG in the diagnosis of atrial fibrillation in adults: A protocol for a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most prevalent cardiac arrhythmia in the world. AF increases the risk of stroke 5-fold, though the risk can be reduced with appropriate treatment. Therefore, early diagnosis is imperative but remains a global challenge. In low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), a lack of diagnostic equipment and under-resourced healthcare systems generate further barriers. The rapid development of digital technologies that are capable of diagnosing AF remotely and cost-effectively could prove beneficial for LMICs. However, evidence is lacking on what digital technologies exist and how they compare in regards to diagnostic accuracy. We aim to systematically review the diagnostic accuracy of all digital technologies capable of AF diagnosis.

METHODS

MEDLINE, Embase and Web of Science will be searched for eligible studies. Free text terms will be combined with corresponding index terms where available and searches will not be limited by language nor time of publication. Cohort or cross-sectional studies comprising adult (≥18 years) participants will be included. Only studies that use a 12-lead ECG as the reference test (comparator) and report outcomes of sensitivity, specificity, the diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) or the positive and negative predictive value (PPV and NPV) will be included (or if they provide sufficient data to calculate these outcomes). Two reviewers will independently assess articles for inclusion, extract data using a piloted tool and assess risk of bias using the QUADAS-2 tool. The feasibility of a meta-analysis will be determined by assessing heterogeneity across the studies, grouped by index device, diagnostic threshold and setting. If a meta-analysis is feasible for any index device, pooled sensitivity and specificity will be calculated using a random effect model and presented in forest plots.

DISCUSSION

The findings of our review will provide a comprehensive synthesis of the diagnostic accuracy of available digital technologies capable for diagnosing AF. Thus, this review will aid in the identification of which devices could be further trialed and implemented, particularly in a LMIC setting, to improve the early diagnosis of AF.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Systematic review registration: PROSPERO registration number is CRD42021290542. https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42021290542.

Regional impact assessment of air quality improvement: The air quality lifecourse assessment tool (AQ-LAT) for the West Midlands combined authority (WMCA)

Poor air quality is the largest environmental health risk in England. In the West Midlands, UK, ∼2.9 million people are affected by air pollution with an average loss in life expectancy of up to 6 months. The 2021 Environment Act established a legal framework for local authorities in England to develop regional air quality plans, generating a policy need for predictive environmental impact assessment tools. In this context, we developed a novel Air Quality Lifecourse Assessment Tool (AQ-LAT) to estimate electoral ward-level impacts of PM2.5 and NO2 exposure on outcomes of interest to local authorities, namely morbidity (asthma, coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, lung cancer), mortality, and associated healthcare costs. We apply the Tool to assess the health economic burden of air pollutant exposure and estimate benefits that would be generated by meeting WHO 2021 Global Air Quality Guidelines (AQGs) (annual average concentrations) for NO2 (10 μg/m3) and PM2.5 (5 μg/m3) in the West Midlands Combined Authority Area. All West Midlands residents live in areas which exceed WHO AQGs, with 2070 deaths, 2070 asthma diagnoses, 770 CHD diagnoses, 170 lung cancers and 650 strokes attributable to air pollution exposure annually. Reducing PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations to WHO AQGs would save 10,700 lives reducing regional mortality by 1.8%, gaining 92,000 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and preventing 20,500 asthma, 7400 CHD, 1400 lung cancer, and 5700 stroke diagnoses, with economic benefits of £3.2 billion over 20 years. Significantly, we estimate 30% of QALY gains relate to reduced disease burden. The AQ-LAT has major potential to be replicated across local authorities in England and applied to inform regional investment decisions.

Inequalities in the management of diabetic kidney disease in UK primary care: A cross-sectional analysis of a large primary care database

AIMS

To determine differences in the management of diabetic kidney disease (DKD) relevant to patient sex, ethnicity and socio-economic group in UK primary care.

METHODS

A cross-sectional analysis as of January 1, 2019 was undertaken using the IQVIA Medical Research Data dataset, to determine the proportion of people with DKD managed in accordance with national guidelines, stratified by demographics. Robust Poisson regression models were used to calculate adjusted risk ratios (aRR) adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity and social deprivation.

RESULTS

Of the 2.3 million participants, 161,278 had type 1 or 2 diabetes, of which 32,905 had DKD. Of people with DKD, 60% had albumin creatinine ratio (ACR) measured, 64% achieved blood pressure (BP, <140/90 mmHg) target, 58% achieved glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c, <58 mmol/mol) target, 68% prescribed renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) inhibitor in the previous year. Compared to men, women were less likely to have creatinine: aRR 0.99 (95% CI 0.98-0.99), ACR: aRR 0.94 (0.92-0.96), BP: aRR 0.98 (0.97-0.99), HbA1c : aRR 0.99 (0.98-0.99) and serum cholesterol: aRR 0.97 (0.96-0.98) measured; achieve BP: aRR 0.95 (0.94-0.98) or total cholesterol (<5 mmol/L) targets: aRR 0.86 (0.84-0.87); or be prescribed RAAS inhibitors: aRR 0.92 (0.90-0.94) or statins: aRR 0.94 (0.92-0.95). Compared to the least deprived areas, people from the most deprived areas were less likely to have BP measurements: aRR 0.98 (0.96-0.99); achieve BP: aRR 0.91 (0.8-0.95) or HbA1c : aRR 0.88 (0.85-0.92) targets, or be prescribed RAAS inhibitors: aRR 0.91 (0.87-0.95). Compared to people of white ethnicity; those of black ethnicity were less likely to be prescribed statins aRR 0.91 (0.85-0.97).

CONCLUSIONS

There are unmet needs and inequalities in the management of DKD in the UK. Addressing these could reduce the increasing human and societal cost of managing DKD.

Generalisability of and lessons learned from a mixed-methods study conducted in three low- and middle-income countries to identify care pathways for atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Identifying existing care pathways is the first step for understanding how services can be improved to enable early diagnosis and effective follow-up care for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, evidence on how care pathways can and should be identified in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To describe generalisability and lessons learned from recruitment and data collection for the quantitative component of a mixed methods study designed to determine the care pathway for atrial fibrillation (AF) in Brazil, China and Sri Lanka.

METHODS

Adults (≥18 years) that spoke the local language and with an AF diagnosis were eligible. We excluded anyone with a hearing or cognitive impairment or ineligible address. Eligible participants were identified using electronic records in Brazil and China; in Sri Lanka, researchers attended the outpatient clinics to identify eligible participants. Data were collected using two quantitative questionnaires administered at least 2-months apart. A minimum sample size of 238 was required for each country.

RESULTS

The required sample size was met in Brazil (n = 267) and China (n = 298), but a large proportion of AF patients could not be contacted (47% and 27%, respectively) or refused to participate (36% and 38%, respectively). In Sri Lanka, recruitment was challenging, resulting in a reduced sample (n = 151). Mean age of participants from Brazil, China and Sri Lanka was 69 (SD = 11.3), 65 (SD = 12.8) and 58 (SD = 11.7), respectively. Females accounted for 49% of the Brazil sample, 62% in China and 70% in Sri Lanka.

CONCLUSIONS

Generalisability was an issue in Brazil and China, as was selection bias. Recruitment bias was highlighted in Sri Lanka. Additional or alternative recruitment methods may be required to ensure generalisability and reduce bias in future studies aimed at identifying NCD care pathways in LMICs.

Carbon monoxide levels in households using coal-briquette fuelled stoves exceed WHO air quality guidelines in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

In 2019, a domestic raw coal ban (RCB) was introduced in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. Coal-briquettes have since been promoted in Ger district households, however implications for carbon monoxide (CO) exposure remains uncertain. We obtained 48-hour indoor CO concentrations in 23 Ger district households and compared these to 10 raw-coal households. Information on household characteristics, fuel use behaviour and stove venting practices was collected by survey. Mean 48-hour CO concentrations in coal-briquette households was 6.1 ppm (range 1.5-35.8 ppm) with no signfiicant differences by household, stove or venting factors. Peak time-weighted average CO concentrations exceeded WHO Indoor Air Quality guidelines in 9 (39%) households; with all surpassing the 8-hour guideline (>8.6 ppm); 3(13%) the 24-hour guideline (>6 ppm) and 2(9%) the 1-hour guideline (>30 ppm). Median CO levels were significantly lower in coal-briquette compared to raw coal households (p = 0.049). Indoor CO reduction was associated with RCB implementation although hazardous levels persist in this setting.

Barriers and facilitators of people living with HIV receiving optimal care for hypertension and diabetes in Tanzania: a qualitative study with healthcare professionals and people living with HIV

BACKGROUND

People living with HIV (PLWH) are at a higher risk for developing diabetes and hypertension. Often services are separate for HIV and non-communicable diseases (NCDs), but how this impacts NCD care among PLWH is unknown. We aimed to understand the barriers and facilitators for prevention, early diagnosis and safe effective care for diabetes and hypertension among PLWH.

METHODS

Semi-structured interviews (SSIs) were conducted with 10 healthcare professionals (HCPs) that care for PLWH, 10 HCPs that care for people with diabetes and hypertension and 16 PLWH with a comorbidity of diabetes and/or hypertension. Participants were recruited from two healthcare facilities in Dodoma, Tanzania and purposively sampled based on age and sex. Interviews were conducted in Swahili using pre-developed topic guides, audio recorded then translated verbatim into English. An inductive thematic analysis was conducted using The Framework Method.

RESULTS

Three themes were found: organisational/healthcare system factors, individual factors and syndemic factors. Organisational/healthcare system factors comprised the only facilitators for prevention (education on lifestyle behaviours and counselling on adherence), but included the most barriers overall: fragmented services, no protocol for NCD screening and lack of access to diagnostic equipment were barriers for early diagnosis whereas the former plus lack of continuity of NCD care were barriers for safe effective care. Individual factors comprised four sub-themes, three of which were considered facilitators: HCPs' knowledge of NCDs for early diagnosis, self-monitoring of NCDs for safe effective care and HCPs' personal practice for both early diagnosis and safe effective care. HCPs' knowledge was simultaneously a barrier for prevention and PLWH knowledge was a barrier for prevention and safe effective care. Syndemic factors comprised three sub-themes; all were barriers for prevention, early diagnosis and/or safe effective care: poverty and mental health of PLWH and HIV stigma.

CONCLUSIONS

Organisational/healthcare system, individual and syndemic factors were found to be interlinked with barriers and facilitators that contribute to the prevention, early diagnosis and safe effective care of diabetes and hypertension among PLWH in Tanzania; these findings can inform future initiatives for making small and large health system changes to improve the health of aging PLWH.

Identifying and understanding the care pathway of patients with atrial fibrillation in Brazil and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: A mixed-methods study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major risk factor for stroke. To enable improvements to AF diagnosis and follow-up care, understanding current patient pathways and barriers to optimal care are essential. We investigated the patient care pathways and their drivers, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patient pathways in a middle-income country setting, Brazil.

METHODS

This mixed-methods study in São Paulo, included adults (≥18y) with AF from 13 primary/secondary healthcare facilities. Surveys using baseline, follow-up (administered ≥two months after baseline) and COVID-19 questionnaires (quantitative), and three focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted. Minimum sample size for the quantitative component was 236 and we aimed to reach saturation with at least three FGDs for the qualitative component. Descriptive statistics were used for quantitative data and a content analysis was used for qualitative data to identify themes related to AF diagnosis and follow-up care.

RESULTS

267 participants completed the baseline questionnaire: 25% were diagnosed in primary care, 65% in an emergency or inpatient department. At follow-up (n = 259), 31% visited more than one facility for AF care, and 7% had no follow-up. Intervals between international normalised ratio (INR) tests were increased during the pandemic, and the number of healthcare visits and availability of medication were reduced. Seventeen patients participated in three FGDs and revealed that AF diagnosis often occurred following a medical emergency and patients often delay care-seeking due to misconceptions about AF symptoms. Long waiting times, doctor/patient interactions and health system factors, such as doctor availability and the referral system, influence where participants visited for follow-up care.

CONCLUSIONS

Lack of public awareness and underdeveloped primary healthcare lead to delayed diagnosis, which impacts clinical outcomes and excess patient and healthcare system costs. Health system, care-provider, and pandemic factors disrupt timely and effective continuity of care.

GWAS meta-analysis of over 29,000 people with epilepsy identifies 26 risk loci and subtype-specific genetic architecture

Epilepsy is a highly heritable disorder affecting over 50 million people worldwide, of which about one-third are resistant to current treatments. Here we report a multi-ancestry genome-wide association study including 29,944 cases, stratified into three broad categories and seven subtypes of epilepsy, and 52,538 controls. We identify 26 genome-wide significant loci, 19 of which are specific to genetic generalized epilepsy (GGE). We implicate 29 likely causal genes underlying these 26 loci. SNP-based heritability analyses show that common variants explain between 39.6% and 90% of genetic risk for GGE and its subtypes. Subtype analysis revealed markedly different genetic architectures between focal and generalized epilepsies. Gene-set analyses of GGE signals implicate synaptic processes in both excitatory and inhibitory neurons in the brain. Prioritized candidate genes overlap with monogenic epilepsy genes and with targets of current antiseizure medications. Finally, we leverage our results to identify alternate drugs with predicted efficacy if repurposed for epilepsy treatment.

The impact of COVID-19 public health restrictions on particulate matter pollution measured by a validated low-cost sensor network in Oxford, UK

Emergency responses to the COVID-19 pandemic led to major changes in travel behaviours and economic activities with arising impacts upon urban air quality. To date, these air quality changes associated with lockdown measures have typically been assessed using limited city-level regulatory monitoring data, however, low-cost air quality sensors provide capabilities to assess changes across multiple locations at higher spatial-temporal resolution, thereby generating insights relevant for future air quality interventions. The aim of this study was to utilise high-spatial resolution air quality information utilising data arising from a validated (using a random forest field calibration) network of 15 low-cost air quality sensors within Oxford, UK to monitor the impacts of multiple COVID-19 public heath restrictions upon particulate matter concentrations (PM₁₀, PM_2.5) from January 2020 to September 2021. Measurements of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 particle size fractions both within and between site locations are compared to a pre-pandemic related public health restrictions baseline. While average peak concentrations of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 were reduced by 9-10 μg/m³ below typical peak levels experienced in recent years, mean daily PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 concentrations were only ∼1 μg/m³ lower and there was marked temporal (as restrictions were added and removed) and spatial variability (across the 15-sensor network) in these observations. Across the 15-sensor network we observed a small local impact from traffic related emission sources upon particle concentrations near traffic-oriented sensors with higher average and peak concentrations as well as greater dynamic range, compared to more intermediate and background orientated sensor locations. The greater dynamic range in concentrations is indicative of exposure to more variable emission sources, such as road transport emissions. Our findings highlight the great potential for low-cost sensor technology to identify highly localised changes in pollutant concentrations as a consequence of changes in behaviour (in this case influenced by COVID-19 restrictions), generating insights into non-traffic contributions to PM emissions in this setting. It is evident that additional non-traffic related measures would be required in Oxford to reduce the PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 levels to within WHO health-based guidelines and to achieve compliance with PM_2.5 targets developed under the Environment Act 2021.

Cereal intake and mortality in older Chinese: a 15-year follow-up of a prospective cohort study

PURPOSE

We examined the association between whole grain and refined grain intake with all-cause, cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality using the data from the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study.

METHODS

19,597 participants aged 50+ years were recruited from 2003 to 2006 and followed-up until April 2021. Multivariable Cox regression was used to calculate hazard radios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Substitution analysis was used to replace a serving (50 g/day) of whole grain with a serving of refined grain.

RESULTS

During 286,821 person-years of follow-up, 4385 deaths occurred, including 1450 from cancer, 1678 from CVD and 1257 from other causes. Compared with never whole grain intake, the highest intake category of whole grain (> 300 g/week) was associated with lower risk of all-cause (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.82-0.98) and CVD mortality (HR 0.85, 0.74-0.98). Compared with the low-intake category of refined grain (< 500 g/day), the highest intake category (> 900 g/week) was associated with a lower risk of cancer mortality (HR 0.76, 0.62-0.95), but a higher risk of CVD mortality (HR 1.25, 1.03-1.51). No significant associations were found between whole grain intake and cancer mortality nor refined grain and all-cause mortality. The HRs of all-cause, cancer and CVD mortality substituting a serving of whole grain for refined grain were 0.96 (0.94-0.99), 1.01 (0.99-1.02) and 0.95 (0.90-0.99), respectively.

CONCLUSION

We have first shown that in older Chinese, whole grain intake was associated with lower risk of all-cause and CVD mortality. Our results suggest that intake of whole grain of at least 300 g/week and refined grain of ≤ 900 g/day might be suitable for older Asian. Substituting 50 g/day of whole grain for refined grain was associated with a 4-5% lower risk of all-cause and CVD mortality.

The impact of rate and rhythm control strategies on quality of life for patients with atrial fibrillation: a protocol for a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common heart arrhythmia globally and it adversely affects the quality of life (QoL). Available rate and rhythm control strategies equally reduce mortality but may impact QoL differently. A number of systematic reviews have focused on the impact of specific strategies on QoL, though a 2006 review synthesized the evidence on the effect of all strategies on QoL, allowing for a clinically important comparison between the types of strategies. Many trials have been published since the review undertook the search in 2005; therefore, an update is needed. This systematic review aims to provide an update to the 2006 review on the impact of all rate and rhythm control strategies on QoL in people with AF.

METHODS

The following four databases and three clinical trial registries will be searched for primary studies: CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, ClinicalTrials.gov, and ClinicalTrialsRegister.eu. No language restriction will be applied. The search will be limited to 2004 or later publication year to allow overlap with the search conducted by the 2006 review authors. Any randomized control trial that reports the QoL of adult (≥ 18 years) AF patients following an eligible rate or rhythm control intervention will be eligible for inclusion. Eligible interventions (and comparators) include pacing, atrioventricular node junction and bundle of HIS ablation, pharmacological therapy, radio frequency catheter ablation, cryoablation, pulmonary vein isolation, maze operation, pace maker implantation, and defibrillator implantation. Two reviewers will independently screen for eligible studies, extract the data using a piloted tool, and assess bias by QoL outcome using the RoB 2 tool. The suitability of conducting a meta-analysis will be assessed by the clinical and methodology similarities of included studies. If it is feasible, standardized mean differences will be pooled using a random-effects model and assessed appropriately.

DISCUSSION

The findings from this review will allow for meaningful comparisons between various rate and rhythm control strategies regarding their impact on QoL. This review will be useful for a wide range of stakeholders and will be crucial for optimizing the overall wellbeing of AF patients.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42021290542.

The association between menstrual cycle characteristics and cardiometabolic outcomes in later life: a retrospective matched cohort study of 704,743 women from the UK

BACKGROUND

Female reproductive factors are gaining prominence as factors that enhance cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk; nonetheless, menstrual cycle characteristics are under-recognized as a factor associated with CVD. Additionally, there is limited data from the UK pertaining to menstrual cycle characteristics and CVD risk.

METHODS

A UK retrospective cohort study (1995-2021) using data from a nationwide database (The Health Improvement Network). Women aged 18-40 years at index date were included. 252,325 women with history of abnormal menstruation were matched with up to two controls. Two exposures were examined: regularity and frequency of menstrual cycles; participants were assigned accordingly to one of two separate cohorts. The primary outcome was composite cardiovascular disease (CVD). Secondary outcomes were ischemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease, heart failure (HF), hypertension, and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to derive adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) of cardiometabolic outcomes in women in the exposed groups compared matched controls.

RESULTS

During 26 years of follow-up, 20,605 cardiometabolic events occurred in 704,743 patients. Compared to women with regular menstrual cycles, the aHRs (95% CI) for cardiometabolic outcomes in women with irregular menstrual cycles were as follows: composite CVD 1.08 (95% CI 1.00-1.19), IHD 1.18 (1.01-1.37), cerebrovascular disease 1.04 (0.92-1.17), HF 1.30 (1.02-1.65), hypertension 1.07 (1.03-1.11), T2DM 1.37 (1.29-1.45). The aHR comparing frequent or infrequent menstrual cycles to menstrual cycles of normal frequency were as follows: composite CVD 1.24 (1.02-1.52), IHD 1.13 (0.81-1.57), cerebrovascular disease 1.43 (1.10-1.87), HF 0.99 (0.57-1.75), hypertension 1.31 (1.21-1.43), T2DM 1.74 (1.52-1.98).

CONCLUSIONS

History of either menstrual cycle irregularity or frequent or infrequent cycles were associated with an increased risk of cardiometabolic outcomes in later life. Menstrual history may be a useful tool in identifying women eligible for periodic assessment of their cardiometabolic health.

Safety and efficacy of tuberculosis vaccine candidates in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review of randomised controlled clinical trials

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of death worldwide, with 98% of cases occurring in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The only vaccine licenced for the prevention of TB has limited protection for adolescents, adults and vulnerable populations. A safe and effective vaccine for all populations at risk is imperative to achieve global elimination of TB. We aimed to systematically review the efficacy and safety of TB vaccine candidates in late-phase clinical trials conducted in LMICs.

METHODS

Medline, Embase, CENTRAL, PubMed, Clinicaltrials.gov and Greylit.org were searched in June 2021 to identify phase 2 or later clinical randomised controlled trials that report the efficacy or safety (adverse events) of TB vaccine candidates with participants of any age living in an LMIC. TB vaccine candidates listed in the 2020 WHO Global TB Report were eligible for inclusion aside from BCG revaccination. Trials were excluded if all participants had active TB at baseline. Two reviewers independently assessed papers for eligibility, and for bias and quality using the Risk of Bias 2 tool and GRADE guidelines, respectively. We report efficacy rates and frequencies of adverse events from each included trial where available and qualitatively synthesise the findings.

RESULTS

Thirteen papers representing eleven trials met our inclusion criteria. Seven vaccine candidates were reviewed across seven countries: M72/AS01, RUTI, VPM1002, H56:IC31, MTBVAC, DAR-901 and ID93 + GLA-SE. Two trials reported on efficacy: an efficacy rate of 54% (95% CI 11.5, 76.2) was reported for M72/AS01 in adults with latent TB and 3% (95% CI -13.9, 17.7) for DAR-901 in healthy adolescents. However, the latter trial was underpowered. All vaccine candidates had comparable occurrences of adverse events between treatment arms and demonstrated acceptable safety profiles; though, RUTI resulted in one serious complication in a person living with HIV. M72/AS01 was the only vaccine considered safe across a diverse group of people including people living with HIV or latent TB and healthy infants and adolescents.

CONCLUSION

Further efficacy trials for M72/AS01 are warranted to include additional populations at risk where safety has been demonstrated. Further safety trials are needed for the remaining vaccine candidates to confirm safety in vulnerable populations.

Risk of cardiometabolic outcomes among women with a history of pelvic inflammatory disease: a retrospective matched cohort study from the UK

INTRODUCTION

To describe the incidence and prevalence of pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) and to estimate the risk of cardiometabolic outcomes among women with PID compared to women without PID.

METHODS

A UK retrospective matched cohort study using data from The Health Improvement Network. To assess cardiometabolic risk, women (aged ≥ 16 years) with PID were compared to matched controls without PID. Annual prevalence and incidence of PID (1998-2017) were estimated among women aged 16-50 years using annual cross-sectional and cohort analyses, respectively. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% CI for cardiometabolic outcomes were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. The primary outcome was composite cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its subtypes, including ischaemic heart disease (IHD), heart failure (HF) and cerebrovascular disease. Secondary outcomes were hypertension, and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

RESULTS

Among the 715 recorded composite CVD events, the crude incidence rate per 1000 person-years was 1.5 among women with history of PID compared to 1.3 in matched controls. Compared to women without PID (N = 73,769), the aHRs for cardiometabolic outcomes among women with PID (N = 19,804) were: composite CVD 1.10 (95% CI 0.93-1.30); IHD 1.19 (95% CI 0.93-1.53); cerebrovascular disease 1.13 (95% CI 0.90-1.43); HF 0.92 (95% CI 0.62-1.35) hypertension 1.10 (95% CI 1.01-1.20); and T2DM 1.25 (95% CI 1.09-1.43). The prevalence (per 10,000 population) of PID was 396.5 in 1998 and 237 in 2017. The incidence (per 10,000 person-years) of PID was 32.4 in 1998 and 7.9 in 2017.

CONCLUSION

There was no excess risk of composite CVD or its subtypes among women with history of PID compared to matched controls. Findings from our study suggest that history of PID was associated with an increased risk of hypertension and type 2 diabetes mellitus, two major risk factors for CVD. Additional studies are required to support these findings.

Cardiovascular Mortality, Habitual Exercise, and Particulate Matter 2.5 Exposure: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Habitual exercise may amplify the respiratory uptake of air pollutants in the lung, exacerbating the adverse effects of air pollution. However, it is unclear whether this can reduce the health benefits of habitual exercise (referred to as leisure-time exercise). Thus, the combined effects of habitual exercise and chronic exposure to ambient fine particulate matter 2.5 on cardiovascular mortality were examined among adults in Taiwan.

METHODS

A total of 384,128 adults were recruited between 2001 and 2016 and followed up to May 31, 2019. Participants' vital status was obtained by matching their unique identification numbers with records of cardiovascular death in the National Death Registry of Taiwan. A time-varying Cox regression model was used to analyze the data. Analyses were conducted in 2021.

RESULTS

Cardiovascular death risks were inversely associated with habitual exercise and positively associated with chronic exposure to particulate matter 2.5. The beneficial effects of habitual exercise on cardiovascular mortality were not modified by chronic exposure to particulate matter 2.5. Inactive participants with high particulate matter 2.5 exposure exhibited a 123% higher risk of cardiovascular death than high-exercise-group participants exposed to low levels of particulate matter 2.5 (95% CI=89, 163).

CONCLUSIONS

High level of habitual exercise combined with low exposure level of ambient particulate matter 2.5 is associated with the lowest risk of cardiovascular death. A higher level of habitual exercise is associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular death at all levels of particulate matter 2.5 exposure studied. The results indicate that habitual exercise is a safe health promotion strategy even for people residing in relatively polluted regions.

Timing of infant formula introduction in relation to BMI and overweight at ages 1 and 3 years: the Born in Guangzhou Cohort Study (BIGCS)

Mounting evidence suggests that the first few months of life are critical for the development of obesity. The relationships between the timing of solid food introduction and the risk of childhood obesity have been examined previously; however, evidence for the association of timing of infant formula introduction remains scarce. This study aimed to examine whether the timing of infant formula introduction is associated with growth z-scores and overweight at ages 1 and 3 years. This study included 5733 full-term (≥ 37 gestational weeks) and normal birth weight (≥ 2500 and < 4000 g) children in the Born in Guangzhou Cohort Study, a prospective cohort study with data collected at 6 weeks, 6, 12 and 36 months. Compared with infant formula introduction at 0-3 months, introduction at 4-6 months was associated with the lower BMI, weight-for-age and weight-for-length z-scores at 1 and 3 years old. Also, introduction at 4-6 months was associated with the lower odds of at-risk of overweight at age 1 (adjusted OR 0·72, 95 % CI 0·55, 0·94) and 3 years (adjusted OR 0·50, 95 % CI 0·30, 0·85). Introduction at 4-6 months also decreased the odds of overweight at age 1 year (adjusted OR 0·42, 95 % CI 0·21, 0·84) but not at age 3 years. Based on our findings, compared with introduction within the first 3 months, introduction at 4-6 months has a reduction on later high BMI risk and at-risk of overweight. However, these results need to be replicated in other well-designed studies before more firm recommendations can be made.

Association of maternal lipid levels with birth weight and cord blood insulin: a Bayesian network analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the independent association of maternal lipid levels with birth weight and cord blood insulin (CBI) level.

SETTING

The Born in Guangzhou Cohort Study, Guangzhou, China.

PARTICIPANTS

Women who delivered between January 2015 and June 2016 and with umbilical cord blood retained were eligible for this study. Those with prepregnancy health conditions, without an available fasting blood sample in the second trimester, or without demographic and glycaemic information were excluded. After random selection, data from 1522 mother-child pairs were used in this study.

EXPOSURES AND OUTCOME MEASURES

Additive Bayesian network analysis was used to investigate the interdependency of lipid profiles with other metabolic risk factors (prepregnancy body mass index (BMI), fasting glucose and early gestational weight gain) in association with birth weight and CBI, along with multivariable linear regression models.

RESULTS

In multivariable linear regressions, maternal triglyceride was associated with increased birth weight (adjusted β=67.46, 95% CI 41.85 to 93.06 g per mmol/L) and CBI (adjusted β=0.89, 95% CI 0.06 to 1.72 μU/mL per mmol/L increase), while high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was associated with decreased birth weight (adjusted β=-45.29, 95% CI -85.49 to -5.09 g per mmol/L). After considering the interdependency of maternal metabolic risk factors in the Network analysis, none of the maternal lipid profiles was independently associated with birth weight and CBI. Instead, prepregnancy BMI was the global strongest factor for birth weight and CBI directly and indirectly.

CONCLUSIONS

Gestational dyslipidaemia appears to be secondary to metabolic dysfunction with no clear association with metabolic adverse outcomes in neonates. Maternal prepregnancy overweight/obesity appears the most influential upstream metabolic risk factor for both maternal and neonatal metabolic health; these data imply weight management may need to be addressed from the preconception period and during early pregnancy.

Health care professionals' perceptions about atrial fibrillation care in the Brazilian public primary care system: a mixed-methods study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) negatively impacts health systems worldwide. We aimed to capture perceptions of and barriers and facilitators for AF care in Brazilian primary care units (PCUs) from the perspective of healthcare professionals (HCPs).

METHODS

This mixed-methods, cross-sectional study utilised an exploratory sequential design, beginning with the quantitative data collection (up to 18 closed questions) immediately followed by a semi-structured interview. HCPs were recruited from 11 PCUs in the Sao Paulo region and included managers, physicians, pharmacists, nurses and community health agents. Descriptive statistics were used to present findings from the quantitative questionnaire and inductive analysis was used to identify themes from the qualitative data.

RESULTS

One hundred seven HCPs were interviewed between September 2019 and May 2020. Three main themes were identified that encapsulated barriers and facilitators to AF care: access to care (appointments, equipment/tests and medication), HCP and patient roles (HCP/patient relationship and patient adherence) and the role of the organisation/system (infrastructure, training and protocols/guidelines). Findings from the qualitative analysis reinforced the quantitative findings, including a lack of AF-specific training for HCPs, protocols/guidelines on AF management, INR tests in the PCUs, patient knowledge of AF management and novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) as key barriers to optimal AF care.

CONCLUSIONS

Development and implementation of AF-specific training for PCU HCPs are needed in Brazil, along with evidence-based protocols and guidelines, educational programmes for patients, better access to INR tests for patients taking warfarin and availability of NOACs.

Decreased renal function is associated with incident dementia: An IMRD-THIN retrospective cohort study in the UK

INTRODUCTION

Decreased renal function is a potential risk factor for dementia.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study of 2.8 million adults aged ≥50 years used the IMRD-THIN database, representative of UK primary care, from January 1, 1995 to February 24, 2020. The associations between estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin creatinine ratio (ACR) with incident all-cause dementia were analyzed using Cox regression.

RESULTS

In the eGFR cohort (n = 2,797,384), worsening renal dysfunction was associated with increased hazard of all-cause dementia, with greatest hazard at eGFR 15-30 ml/min/1.73min² (hazard ratio [HR] 1.26, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-1.33). In the ACR cohort (n = 641,912), the hazard of dementia increased from ACR 3-30 mg/mmol (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.10-1.15) to ACR > 30 mg/mmol (HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.18-1.33).

DISCUSSION

Worsening eGFR and albuminuria have graded associations with the risk of dementia, which may have significant implications for the care of patients with kidney disease.

Cardiovascular Health and Atrial Fibrillation or Flutter: A Cross-Sectional Study from ELSA-Brasil

BACKGROUND

The association between ideal cardiovascular health (ICVH) status and atrial fibrillation or flutter (AFF) diagnosis has been less studied compared to other cardiovascular diseases.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the association between AFF diagnosis and ICVH metrics and scores in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil).

METHODS

This study analyzed data from 13,141 participants with complete data. Electrocardiographic tracings were coded according to the Minnesota Coding System, in a centralized reading center. ICVH metrics (diet, physical activity, body mass index, smoking, blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, and total cholesterol) and scores were calculated as proposed by the American Heart Association. Crude and adjusted binary logistic regression models were built to analyze the association of ICVH metrics and scores with AFF diagnosis. Significance level was set at 0.05.

RESULTS

The sample had a median age of 55 years and 54.4% were women. In adjusted models, ICVH scores were not significantly associated with prevalent AFF diagnosis (odds ratio [OR]:0.96; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]:0.80-1.16; p=0.70). Ideal blood pressure (OR:0.33; 95% CI:0.15-0.74; p=0.007) and total cholesterol (OR:1.88; 95% CI:1.19-2.98; p=0.007) profiles were significantly associated with AFF diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

No significant associations were identified between global ICVH scores and AFF diagnosis after multivariable adjustment in our analyses, at least partially due to the antagonistic associations of AFF with blood pressure and total cholesterol ICVH metrics. Our results suggest that estimating the prevention of AFF burden using global ICVH scores may not be adequate, and ICVH metrics should be considered in separate.

Association of alcohol drinking with incident type 2 diabetes and pre-diabetes: The Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study

AIMS

We examined associations of baseline alcohol drinking with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) or impaired fasting glucose (IFG), and explore whether the associations were modified by genetic polymorphisms of aldehyde dehydrogenase-2 (ALDH2) and alcohol dehydrogenase-1B (ADH1B).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All participants were aged 50+ (mean = 60.45; standard deviation = 6.88) years. Information of alcohol consumption was collected at baseline from 2003 to 2008. Incident T2D was defined as fasting glucose ≥7.0 mmol/L or post-load glucose ≥11.1 mmol/L at follow-up examination (2008-2012), self-reported T2D and/or initiation of hypoglycaemia medication or insulin during follow-up. Impaired fasting glucose was defined as fasting glucose ≥5.6 mmol/L and <7 mmol/L.

RESULTS

Of 15,716 participants without diabetes and 11,232 participants without diabetes and IFG at baseline, 1624 (10.33%) developed incident T2D and 1004 (8.94%) developed incident IFG during an average 4 years of follow-up. After multivariable adjustments, compared with never drinking, occasional or moderate alcohol drinking was not associated with risk of incident hyperglycaemia (T2D + IFG) (odds ratio (OR) = 1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.95-1.27, and 0.90 (0.69-1.18), respectively), whereas heavy alcohol drinking was associated with a higher risk of incident hyperglycaemia (T2D + IFG) (OR = 1.82, 95% CI 1.24-2.68). No interactions of sex, overweight/obesity and genetic polymorphisms of ADH1B/ALDH2 genes with alcohol drinking on incident T2D and/or IFG were found (P for interaction from 0.12 to 0.85).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support a detrimental effect of heavy alcohol use on IFG and T2D. No protective effect was found for those carrying lower risk alleles for ADH1B/ALDH2 genes.

Healthcare provider and patient perspectives on access to and management of atrial fibrillation in the Northern Province, Sri Lanka: a rapid evaluation of barriers and facilitators to care

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia that affects 60 million people worldwide. Limited evidence on AF management exists from low- and middle-income countries and none from Sri Lanka. We aimed to investigate the existing AF care pathway and patients’ perception on AF management to identify barriers and enablers for optimal AF care in Northern Province, Sri Lanka.

Methods

A rapid evaluation was undertaken with use of qualitative methods. Local healthcare providers (HCPs) mapped the intended pathway of care for AF patients which was then explored and annotated through 12 iterative sessions with additional HCPs. Topics of inefficiencies identified from the finalised map were used to guide focus group discussions (FGDs) with AF patients. AF patients who were attending the anticoagulation clinic at the only tertiary hospital in Northern Province were recruited and invited to participate using purposive sampling. The topic guide was developed in collaboration with local clinicians and qualitative experts. FGDs were conducted in the native Tamil language and all sessions were recorded, transcribed verbatim and thematically analysed using a deductive approach.

Results

The mapped pathway revealed inefficiencies in referral, diagnosis and ongoing management. These were explored through three FGDs conducted with 25 AF patients aged 25 to 70 years. Two key themes that contributed to and resulted in delays in accessing care and ongoing management were health seeking behaviours and atomistic healthcare structures. Four cross-cutting sub-themes identified were decision making, paternalistic approach to care, cost impacts and lifestyle impacts. These are discussed across 10 unique categories with consideration of the local context.

Conclusions

Strengthening primary healthcare services, improving public health literacy regarding AF and building patient autonomy whilst understanding the importance of their daily life and family involvement may be advantageous in tackling the inefficiencies in the current AF care pathway in Sri Lanka.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-022-08440-1.

A matched cohort study investigating premature, accentuated, and accelerated aging in people living with HIV

INTRODUCTION

The impact of HIV infection on the aging process is disputed and largely unknown. We aimed to identify whether people living with HIV experience premature, accelerated, and/or accentuated aging by investigating the development of four age-related non-communicable diseases in people living with versus without HIV.

METHODS

This population-based matched cohort study design used UK-based primary care electronic health records from the IQVIA Medical Research Database. Between January 2000 and January 2020, all people living with and without HIV aged ≥18 years were eligible. Outcomes included cardiovascular disease (CVD), hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and chronic kidney disease (CKD), which were identified by Read codes. We used age at diagnosis to investigate premature aging and age at exit date to investigate accentuation and acceleration. For each outcome, people with and without HIV were excluded if they had the outcome of interest at baseline. Participants were matched based on propensity scores (1:1 ratio). Linear regression was used to report any difference in age at diagnosis between the two groups and to report the prevalence trends for age at exit date.

RESULTS

In total, 8880 people living with HIV were matched with 8880 people without HIV and were found to have an earlier onset of CVD (54.5 vs. 56.8; p = 0.002). Similarly, people living with HIV had an earlier onset of hypertension (49.7 vs. 51.4; p = 0.002). No difference was found for T2DM or CKD (53.4 vs. 52.6; p = 0.368 and 57.6 vs. 58.1; p = 0.483, respectively). The burden of CKD increased over time, whereas no difference in the burden was found for the other conditions.

CONCLUSION

The earlier development of CVD and hypertension in people living with HIV than in those without HIV indicates premature aging, whereas the increased burden of CKD indicates accelerated aging.

Sex-specific temporal trends in the incidence and prevalence of cardiovascular disease in young adults: a population-based study using UK primary care data

AIMS

There is concern that cardiovascular disease (CVD) in young adults is rising. However, current trends in the UK are unknown. We investigated sex-specific trends in the incidence and prevalence of CVD in young UK adults.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A series of annual (1998-2017) cohort and cross-sectional studies were conducted to estimate incidence rates and prevalence in men and women aged 16-50. Joinpoint regression models were fitted to evaluate changes in trends. From 1998 to 2017, incidence and prevalence had an overall downward trend for ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and angina, while coronary revascularization, stroke/transient ischaemic attack (TIA), and heart failure (HF) had an upward trend in both sexes. Myocardial infarction (MI) trends were stable in men and increased in women. For incidence, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) for men vs. women, respectively, was IHD -2.6% vs. -3.4%; angina -7.0% vs. -7.3%; MI 0.01% vs. 2.3%; revascularization 1.1% vs. 3.9%; stroke/TIA 1.9% vs. 0.6%; HF 5.6% vs. 5.0% (P for trend &lt;0.05 for all except MI and revascularization in men and stroke/TIA in women). For prevalence, AAPCs for men vs. women, respectively, were IHD -2.8% vs. -4.9%; angina -7.2% vs. -7.8%; MI -0.2% vs. 2.0; revascularization 3.2% vs. 4.1%; stroke/TIA 3.1% vs. 3.6%; HF 5.0% vs. 3.0% (P for trend &lt;0.05 for all except MI in men). In recent years, IHD and revascularization trends levelled off, while stroke/TIA and HF trends increased in both sexes.

CONCLUSION

Overall trends in incidence and prevalence of CVD are worsening in young adults. Factors behind unfavourable trends warrant investigation and public health intervention.

Cardiovascular medications and long-term mortality among stroke survivors in the Brazilian Study of Stroke Mortality and Morbidity (EMMA)

AIM

To investigate the association between medication use and long-term all-cause mortality in a Brazilian stroke cohort.

METHODS

Both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke were evaluated. Medication use was assessed as: never, only pre-stroke, only post-stroke, and continuous use. We evaluated anti-hypertensives, anti-diabetics, lipid-lowering drugs, anti-platelets, and anti-coagulants. Cox regression models were adjusted for sociodemographic and cardiovascular risk factors.

RESULTS

Among 1173 incident stroke cases (median age: 68; 86.8% were ischemic, 70% first-ever stroke), medication use was low (overall: 17.5% pre-stroke, 26.4% post-stroke, and 40% were under continuous use). Anti-hypertensives and anti-platelets (aspirin) were the continuous cardiovascular medications used most often, at 83.5% and 72%, respectively, while statins (39.7%) and anti-diabetics (31.3%) were the least used. Medication use (pre-stroke, post-stroke and continuous use) was associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality risk, particularly among those under continuous use (multivariable hazard ratio, 0.52; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.46-0.66) compared with never-users. Among ischemic stroke patients, this effect was similar (multivariable hazard ratio, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.40-0.68). No significant associations were evident among hemorrhagic stroke patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of all-cause mortality was reduced by 48% among those with ischemic stroke under continuous use of medications. Secondary prevention should be emphasized more strongly in clinical practice. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2022; ••: ••-••.

Patient and Public Involvement and Engagement (PPIE): first steps in the process of the engagement in research projects in Brazil

Patient and Public Involvement and Engagement (PPIE) – sometimes called Community Engagement and Involvement (CEI) – comes as a big challenge but one that can be very helpful for health care professionals and stakeholders in planning better health policies for attending to the main needs of the community. PPIE involves three pillars: public involvement, public engagement, and participation. Public involvement occurs when members of the general population are actively involved in developing the research question, designing, and conducting the research. Public engagement tells people about new studies, why they are important, the impact of results, the possible implication of the main findings for the community, and the possible impact of these new findings in society, as well as, in the dissemination of knowledge to the general population. Participation is being a volunteer in the study. Our experience with PPIE, to the best of our knowledge the first initiative in Brazil, is a partnership with the University of Birmingham, the University of Liverpool, and the NIHR Global Health Group on Atrial Fibrillation (AF) Management focusing on the AF care pathway exploring the important aspects of diagnosis and treatment in the primary care system from a low-middle income area in São Paulo. The involvement of patients/public in the research represents a new step in the process of inclusion of all segments of our society based on patient illness and the gaps in knowledge aiming to open new horizons for continuous improvement and better acceptance of research projects.

Cooking outdoors or with cleaner fuels does not increase malarial risk in children under 5 years: a cross-sectional study of 17 sub-Saharan African countries

Background

Smoke from solid biomass cooking is often stated to reduce household mosquito levels and, therefore, malarial transmission. However, household air pollution (HAP) from solid biomass cooking is estimated to be responsible for 1.67 times more deaths in children aged under 5 years compared to malaria globally. This cross-sectional study investigates the association between malaria and (i) cleaner fuel usage; (ii) wood compared to charcoal fuel; and, (iii) household cooking location, among children aged under 5 years in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

Methods

Population-based data was obtained from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for 85,263 children within 17 malaria-endemic sub-Saharan countries who were who were tested for malaria with a malarial rapid diagnostic test (RDT) or microscopy. To assess the independent association between malarial diagnosis (positive, negative), fuel type and cooking location (outdoor, indoor, attached to house), multivariable logistic regression was used, controlling for individual, household and contextual confounding factors.

Results

Household use of solid biomass fuels and kerosene cooking fuels was associated with a 57% increase in the odds ratio of malarial infection after adjusting for confounding factors (RDT adjusted odds ratio (AOR):1.57 [1.30–1.91]; Microscopy AOR: 1.58 [1.23–2.04]) compared to cooking with cleaner fuels. A similar effect was observed when comparing wood to charcoal among solid biomass fuel users (RDT AOR: 1.77 [1.54–2.04]; Microscopy AOR: 1.21 [1.08–1.37]). Cooking in a separate building was associated with a 26% reduction in the odds of malarial infection (RDT AOR: 0.74 [0.66–0.83]; Microscopy AOR: 0.75 [0.67–0.84]) compared to indoor cooking; however no association was observed with outdoor cooking. Similar effects were observed within a sub-analysis of malarial mesoendemic areas only.

Conclusion

Cleaner fuels and outdoor cooking practices associated with reduced smoke exposure were not observed to have an adverse effect upon malarial infection among children under 5 years in SSA. Further mixed-methods research will be required to further strengthen the evidence base concerning this risk paradigm and to support appropriate public health messaging in this context.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-022-04152-3.

Association between Wood and Other Biomass Fuels and Risk of Low Birthweight in Uganda: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of 2016 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey Data

In utero exposure to household air pollution (HAP) from polluting cooking fuels has been linked to adverse pregnancy outcomes including low birthweight (LBW). No previous study in Uganda has attempted to investigate the association between the different types of biomass cooking fuels and LBW. This study was conducted to investigate the association between wood and other biomass cooking fuel use with increased risk of LBW, using the 2016 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey for 15,270 live births within five years prior to interview. LBW, defined as birthweight of <2500 g, was estimated from maternal recall and health cards. Association between household exposure to the different solid biomass cooking fuels and LBW was determined using multivariable logistic regression. Biomass cooking fuels were used in 99.6% of the households, with few (0.3%) using cleaner fuels and 0.1% with no cooking, while the prevalence of LBW was 9.6% of all live-births. Although the crude analysis suggested an association between wood fuel use and LBW compared to other biomass and kerosene fuel use (AOR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.67−1.00), after adjusting for socio-demographic and obstetric factors, no association was observed (AOR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.72−1.22). LBW was significantly more likely among female neonates (AOR: 1.32 (95% CI: 1.13−1.55) and neonates born to mothers living in larger households (AOR: 1.03; 95% CI: 1.00−1.07). LBW was significantly less likely among neonates delivered at term (AOR: 0.39; 95% CI: 0.31−0.49), born to women with secondary or tertiary level of education (AOR: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.64−1.00), living in households with a higher wealth index (AOR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.50−0.96), Eastern (AOR: 0.76; 95% CI:0.59−0.98) and Northern (AOR: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.57−0.99) regions. The study findings suggest inconclusive evidence regarding the association between the use of wood compared to other biomass and kerosene cooking fuels and risk of LBW. Given the close observed association between socioeconomic status and LBW, the Ugandan government should prioritize public health actions which support female education and broader sustainable development to improve household living standards in this setting.

Low-Carbohydrate Diets and Mortality in Older Asian People: A 15-Year Follow-Up from a Prospective Cohort Study

The long-term effects of a low-carbohydrate diet (LCD) on mortality, accounting for the quality and source of the carbohydrate, are unclear. Hence, we examined the associations of LCDs with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in a prospective cohort study. A total of 20,206 participants (13.8% diabetes) aged 50+ years were included. Overall, vegetable-based and meat-based LCD scores were calculated based on the percentage of energy as total and subtypes of carbohydrates, fat, and protein. Cox regression analysis was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). During 294,848 person-years of follow-up, 4624 deaths occurred, including 3661 and 963 deaths in participants without and with diabetes, respectively. In all participants, overall LCD score was not associated with all-cause and cause-specific mortality, after multivariable adjustment. However, for the highest versus the lowest quartiles of vegetable-based LCD, the adjusted HRs (95%CIs) of all-cause and CVD mortality were 1.16 (1.05–1.27) and 1.39 (1.19–1.62), respectively. The corresponding values for highest versus lowest quartiles of meat-based LCD for all-cause and CVD mortality were 0.89 (0.81–0.97) and 0.81 (0.70–0.93), respectively. Similar associations were found in participants without diabetes. In patients with diabetes, the adjusted HR (95%CI) of CVD mortality for the highest versus the lowest quartiles of vegetable-based LCD was 1.54 (1.11–2.14). Although there were no significant associations with overall LCD score, we found that the vegetable-based LCD score was positively, whereas the meat-based LCD score was negatively, associated with all-cause and CVD mortality in older Asian people.

The risk of mental illness in people living with HIV in the UK: a propensity score-matched cohort study

BACKGROUND

Prevalence of mental illness is higher in people living with HIV than in the general population, but the incidence of composite mental illness and its components is unclear. We aimed to identify the risk of incident mental illness along with individual conditions of depression, anxiety, and severe mental illness in people living with HIV in the UK.

METHODS

Data for this population-based cohort were extracted from the IQVIA Medical Research Database, a nationally representative UK-based database of primary care electronic health records. We included adults (aged ≥18 years) living with HIV, matched with adults without HIV using propensity score matching (1:1 ratio). The primary outcome was composite mental illness comprising a diagnosis of depression, anxiety, or severe mental illness. Secondary outcomes were individual mental health conditions. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to compare the risk of each outcome between people with and without HIV. Each model excluded those with the outcome at baseline. Individuals were followed up prospectively. The study period was from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 1, 2020.

FINDINGS

Of 7167 people living with HIV without mental illness at baseline, 586 developed a mental illness (incidence rate 19·6 per 1000 person-years) compared with 418 of 7167 people without HIV (incidence rate 12·1 per 1000 person-years), resulting in an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1·63 (95% CI 1·44-1·85). People living with HIV had higher incidence rates for depression (15·4 per 1000 person-years), anxiety (7·2 per 1000 person-years), and severe mental illness (1·6 per 1000 person-years) compared with people without HIV (7·9, 5·0, and 0·6 per 1000 person-years, respectively), with adjusted HRs of 1·94 (95% CI 1·68-2·24) for depression, 1·38 (1·15-1·66) for anxiety, and 2·18 (1·41-3·39) for severe mental illness.

INTERPRETATION

People living with HIV have an increased risk for developing composite mental illness, depression, anxiety, and severe mental illness compared with people without HIV. People living with HIV should be regularly screened for mental illness; however, there is a strong need to improve prevention of mental illness in people living with HIV and for more outreach programmes to ensure that no groups of people living with HIV are being underdiagnosed.

FUNDING

None.

Long term miscarriage-related hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Evidence from a United Kingdom population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Miscarriages affect up to a fifth of all pregnancies and are associated with substantial psychological morbidity. However, their relationship with cardiometabolic risk factors is not well known. Therefore, in this study we aimed to estimate the burden of cardiovascular risk factors including diabetes mellitus (type 1 or 2) and hypertension in women with miscarriage compared to women without a record of miscarriage.

METHODS

A population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted using IVQIA Medical Research Data UK (IMRD-UK) between January 1995 and May 2016, an anonymised electronic health records database that is representative of the UK population. A total of 86,509, 16-50-year-old women with a record of miscarriage (exposed group) were matched by age, smoking status, and body mass index to 329,865 women without a record of miscarriage (unexposed group). Patients with pre-existing hypertension and diabetes were excluded. Adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for diabetes and hypertension were estimated using multivariable Poisson regression models offsetting for person-years follow-up.

RESULTS

The mean age at cohort entry was 31 years and median follow up was 4.6 (IQR 1.7-9.4) years. During the study period, a total of 792 (IR 1.44 per 1000 years) and 2525 (IR 1.26 per 1000 years) patients developed diabetes in the exposed and unexposed groups, respectively. For hypertension, 1995 (IR 3.73 per 1000 years) and 1605 (IR 3.39 per 1000 years) new diagnoses were recorded in the exposed and unexposed groups, respectively. Compared to unexposed individuals, women with a record miscarriage were more likely to develop diabetes (aIRR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.15-1.36; p<0.001) and hypertension (aIRR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.02-1.12; p = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

Women diagnosed with miscarriage were at increased risk of developing diabetes mellitus and hypertension. Women with history of miscarriage may benefit from periodic monitoring of their cardiometabolic health.

Impacts of emergency health protection measures upon air quality, traffic and public health: evidence from Oxford, UK

Emergency responses to the COVID-19 pandemic led to major changes in travel behaviours and economic activities in 2020. Machine learning provides a reliable approach for assessing the contribution of these changes to air quality. This study investigates impacts of health protection measures upon air pollution and traffic emissions and estimates health and economic impacts arising from these changes during two national 'lockdown' periods in Oxford, UK. Air quality improvements were most marked during the first lockdown with reductions in observed NO₂ concentrations of 38% (SD ± 24.0%) at roadside and 17% (SD ± 5.4%) at urban background locations. Observed changes in PM_2.5, PM₁₀ and O₃ concentrations were not significant during first or second lockdown. Deweathering and detrending analyses revealed a 22% (SD ± 4.4%) reduction in roadside NO₂ and 2% (SD ± 7.1%) at urban background with no significant changes in the second lockdown. Deweathered-detrended PM_2.5 and O₃ concentration changes were not significant, but PM₁₀ increased in the second lockdown only. City centre traffic volume reduced by 69% and 38% in the first and second lockdown periods. Buses and passenger cars were the major contributors to NO₂ emissions, with relative reductions of 56% and 77% respectively during the first lockdown, and less pronounced changes in the second lockdown. While car and bus NO₂ emissions decreased during both lockdown periods, the overall contribution from buses increased relative to cars in the second lockdown. Sustained NO₂ emissions reduction consistent with the first lockdown could prevent 48 lost life-years among the city population, with economic benefits of up to £2.5 million. Our findings highlight the critical importance of decoupling emissions changes from meteorological influences to avoid overestimation of lockdown impacts and indicate targeted emissions control measures will be the most effective strategy for achieving air quality and public health benefits in this setting.

The clinical profile and associated mortality in people with and without diabetes with Coronavirus disease 2019 on admission to acute hospital services

INTRODUCTION

To assess if in adults with COVID-19, whether those with diabetes and complications (DM+C) present with a more severe clinical profile and if that relates to increased mortality, compared to those with diabetes with no complications (DM-NC) and those without diabetes.

METHODS

Service-level data was used from 996 adults with laboratory confirmed COVID-19 who presented to the Queen Elizabeth Hospital Birmingham, UK, from March to June 2020. All individuals were categorized into DM+C, DM-NC, and non-diabetes groups. Physiological and laboratory measurements in the first 5 days after admission were collated and compared among groups. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate associations between diabetes status and the risk of mortality.

RESULTS

Among the 996 individuals, 104 (10.4%) were DM+C, 295 (29.6%) DM-NC and 597 (59.9%) non-diabetes. There were 309 (31.0%) in-hospital deaths documented, 40 (4.0% of total cohort) were DM+C, 99 (9.9%) DM-NC and 170 (17.0%) non-diabetes. Individuals with DM+C were more likely to present with high anion gap/metabolic acidosis, features of renal impairment, and low albumin/lymphocyte count than those with DM-NC or those without diabetes. There was no significant difference in mortality rates among the groups: compared to individuals without diabetes, the adjusted HRs were 1.39 (95% CI 0.95-2.03, p = 0.093) and 1.18 (95% CI 0.90-1.54, p = 0.226) in DM+C and DM-C, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Those with COVID-19 and DM+C presented with a more severe clinical and biochemical profile, but this did not associate with increased mortality in this study.

Effectiveness of interventions to reduce household air pollution from solid biomass fuels and improve maternal and child health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Interventions to reduce household air pollution (HAP) are key to reducing associated morbidity and mortality in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs); especially among pregnant women and young children. This systematic review aims to determine the effectiveness of interventions aimed to reduce HAP exposure associated with domestic solid biomass fuel combustion, compared to usual cooking practices, for improving health outcomes in pregnant women and children under five in LMIC settings. A systematic review and meta-analysis was undertaken with searches undertaken in MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, GIM, ClinicalTrials.gov, and Greenfile in August 2020. Inclusion criteria were experimental, non-experimental, or quasi-experimental studies investigating the impact of interventions to reduce HAP exposure and improve associated health outcomes among pregnant women or children under 5 years. Study selection, data extraction, and quality assessment using the Effective Public Health Practice Project tool were undertaken independently by two reviewers. Seventeen out of 7293 retrieved articles (seven pregnancy, nine child health outcome; 13 studies) met the inclusion criteria. These assessed improved cookstoves (ICS; n = 10 studies), ethanol stoves (n = 1 study), and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG; n = 2 studies) stoves interventions. Meta-analysis showed no significant effect of ICS interventions compared to traditional cooking for risk of preterm birth (n = 2 studies), small for gestational age (n = 2 studies), and incidence of acute respiratory infections (n = 6 studies). Although an observed increase in mean birthweight was observed, this was not statistically significant (n = 4). However, ICS interventions reduced the incidence of childhood burns (n = 3; observations = 41 723; Rate Ratio: 0.66 [95% CI: 0.45-0.96]; I² : 46.7%) and risk of low birth weight (LBW; n = 4; observations = 3456; Odds Ratio: 0.73 [95% CI: 0.61-0.87]; I² : 21.1%). Although few studies reported health outcomes, the data indicate that ICS interventions were associated with reduced risk of childhood burns and LBW. The data highlight the need for the development and implementation of robust, well-reported and monitored, community-driven intervention trials with longer-term participant follow-up.

Higher total white blood cell and neutrophil counts are associated with an increased risk of fatal stroke occurrence: the Guangzhou biobank cohort study

Background

Chronic inflammatory diseases are linked to an increased risk of stroke events. The white blood cell (WBC) count is a common marker of the inflammatory response. However, it is unclear whether the WBC count, its subpopulations and their dynamic changes are related to the risk of fatal stroke in relatively healthy elderly population.

Methods

In total, 27,811 participants without a stroke history at baseline were included and followed up for a mean of 11.5 (standard deviation = 2.3) years. After review of available records, 503 stroke deaths (ischaemic 227, haemorrhagic 172 and unclassified 104) were recorded. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the associations between the WBC count, its subpopulations and their dynamic changes (two-phase examination from baseline to the 1st follow-up) and the risk of fatal all stroke, fatal ischaemic stroke and fatal haemorrhagic stroke.

Results

(i) Regarding the WBC count in relation to the risk of fatal stroke, restricted cubic splines showed an atypically U-curved association between the WBC count and the risk of fatal all stroke occurrence. Compared with those in the lowest WBC count quartile (< 5.3*10^9/L), the participants with the highest WBC count (> 7.2*10^9/L) had a 53 and 67% increased risk for fatal all stroke (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.16–2.02, P = 0.003) and fatal haemorrhagic stroke (aHR = 1.67, 95% CI 1.10–2.67, P = 0.03), respectively; compared with those in the lowest quartile (< 3.0*10^9/L), the participants with the highest NEUT count (> 4.5*10^9/L) had a 45 and 65% increased risk for fatal all stroke (aHR = 1.45, 95% CI 1.10–1.89, P = 0.008) and fatal ischaemic stroke (aHR = 1.65, 95%CI 1.10–2.47 P = 0.02), respectively. With the additional adjustment for C-reactive protein, the same results as those for all stroke and ischaemic stroke, but not haemorrhagic stroke, were obtained for the WBC count (4 ~ 10*10^9/L) and the NEUT count (the NEUT counts in the top 1% and bottom 1% at baseline were excluded). (ii) Regarding dynamic changes in the WBC count in relation to the risk of fatal stroke, compared with the stable group (− 25% ~ 25%, dynamic changes from two phases of examination (baseline, from September 1st, 2003 to February 28th, 2008; 1st follow-up, from March 31st 2008 to December 31st 2012)), the groups with a 25% increase in the WBC count and NEUT count respectively had a 60% (aHR = 1.60, 95% CI 1.07–2.40, P = 0.02) and 45% (aHR = 1.45, 95% CI1.02–2.05, P = 0.04) increased risk of fatal all stroke occurrence.

Conclusions

The WBC count, especially the NEUT count, was associated with an increased risk of fatal all stroke occurrence. Longitudinal changes in the WBC count and NEUT count increase in excess of 25% were also associated with an increased risk of fatal all stroke occurrence in the elderly population.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12883-021-02495-z.

Association between atrial high rate episode burden and autonomic and vascular function in patients with implanted cardiac device

Background

Patients who experience frequent atrial high rate episodes (AHREs), recorded on implantable cardiac devices, are at an increased risk of stroke and systemic embolism. Increased duration of AHRE is related to higher risk of thromboembolic event. The underlying pathophysiology is unclear; however, autonomic and/or endothelial dysfunction may contribute.

Purpose

We tested the hypothesis that patients with high AHRE burden have worse autonomic and vascular function compared to patients with low AHRE burden.

Design

We studied 44 patients split in two groups: high AHRE burden (longest AHRE ≥24 hours; n=22) and low AHRE burden (longest AHRE &lt;24 hours; n=22). Resting time- and frequency-domain measures of HRV were determined to index cardiac autonomic function. High-resolution ultrasound was used to measure brachial artery diameter at rest and during reactive hyperaemia (endothelium-dependent flow mediated dilation (FMD)).

Results

FMD was higher in the low AHRE burden group compared to high AHRE group (5.5% [95% confidence interval (CI):3.4–7.6] vs 3.1% [95% CI: 1.9–6.2]; p=0.04) (table 1). Mean heart rate (p&lt;0.001) and AHRE burden (p=0.02) were independent predictors of FMD on multivariate analysis. Time-domain, frequency-domain and non-linear indices of HRV were not significantly different between the groups. A slower heart rate (Spearman's rho 0.369; p=0.01) and high AHRE burden (Spearman's rho −0.315; p=0.04) were independently associated with changes seen on FMD following adjustment for multiple variables (p=0.001 and p=0.03 respectively).

Conclusion

Endothelium-dependent FMD is impaired in patients with high AHRE burden, while HRV derived indices of autonomic function were not affected by AHRE burden. Endothelial dysfunction may play an important role in the adverse outcomes seen in patients who experience frequent AHRE.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Prospective randomised trial examining the impact of an educational intervention versus usual care on anticoagulation therapy control based on an SAMe-TT2R2 score-guided strategy in anticoagulant-naïve Thai patients with atrial fibrillation (TREATS-AF): a study protocol

INTRODUCTION

The burden of atrial fibrillation (AF) in Thailand is high and associated with increased morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. Vitamin K antagonists (eg, warfarin), commonly used for stroke prevention in patients with AF in Thailand, are effective but are often suboptimally controlled. We aim to evaluate the impact of an SAMe-TT₂R₂ score-guided strategy and educational intervention compared to usual care on anticoagulation control expressed by the time in therapeutic range (TTR) at 12 months, in anticoagulant-naïve Thai patients with AF.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Multicentre, open-label, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial conducted in Thailand among adult patients (age: 18 years) with AF who are anticoagulant naïve. Patients will be randomised to one of two groups; an SAMe-TT₂R₂ score-guided strategy with educational intervention and usual care versus usual care alone. The planned follow-up period is 12 months. The primary outcome is TTR at 12 months. Secondary outcomes include: (1) TTR at 6 months; (2) thromboembolic and bleeding events at 12 months; (3) composite major adverse cardiovascular events at 12 months; (4) change in patients' knowledge of AF between baseline and 6 months and 12 months; (5) cost effectiveness; (6) quality of life at baseline, 6 months and 12 months using EQ-5D-5L (Thai version) and (7) patient satisfaction/perceptions of the TREAT intervention. An embedded qualitative study will assess patient perceptions of the TREAT intervention.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has been approved by the Ethical Review Committee, Ministry of Public Health of Thailand, and registered in the Thai Clinical Trials Registry. The results of this trial will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal. Participants will be informed via a link to a preview of the publication. A lay summary will also be provided to all participants prior to publication.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

TCTR20180711003.

wEight chanGes, caRdio-mEtabolic risks and morTality in patients with hyperthyroidism (EGRET): a protocol for a CPRD-HES linked cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Hyperthyroidism is a common condition affecting up to 3% of the UK population. Treatment improves symptoms and reduces the risk of atrial fibrillation and stroke that contribute to increased mortality. The most common symptom is weight loss, which is reversed during treatment. However, the weight regain may be excessive, contributing to increased risk of obesity. Current treatment options include antithyroid drugs, radioiodine and thyroidectomy. Whether there are differences in either weight change or the long-term cardiometabolic risk between the three treatments is unclear.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The study will establish the natural history of weight change in hyperthyroidism, investigate the risk of obesity and risks of cardiometabolic conditions and death relative to the treatment. The data on patients diagnosed with hyperthyroidism between 1 January 1996 and 31 December 2015 will come from Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics Death Registry. The weight changes will be modelled using a flexible joint modelling, accounting for mortality. Obesity prevalence in the general population will be sourced from Health Survey for England and compared with the post-treatment prevalence of obesity in patients with hyperthyroidism. The incidence and time-to-event of major adverse cardiovascular events, other cardiometabolic outcomes and mortality will be compared between the treatments using the inverse propensity weighting model. Incidence rate ratios of outcomes will be modelled with Poisson regression. Time to event will be analysed using Cox proportional hazards model. A competing risks approach will be adopted to estimate comparative incidences to allow for the impact of mortality.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study will bring new knowledge on the risk of developing obesity, cardiometabolic morbidity and mortality following treatment for hyperthyroidism to inform clinical practice and public health policies. The results will be disseminated via open-access peer-reviewed publications and directly to the patients and public groups (Independent Scientific Advisory Committee protocol approval #20_000185).

Mendelian Randomization Focused Analysis of Vitamin D on the Secondary Prevention of Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Experimental studies showed vitamin D (Vit-D) could promote vascular regeneration and repair. Prior randomized studies had focused mainly on primary prevention. Whether Vit-D protects against ischemic stroke and myocardial infarction recurrence among subjects with prior ischemic insults was unknown. Here, we dissected through Mendelian randomization any effect of Vit-D on the secondary prevention of recurrent ischemic stroke and myocardial infarction.

METHODS

Based on a genetic risk score for Vit-D constructed from a derivation cohort sample (n=5331, 45% Vit-D deficient, 89% genotyped) via high-throughput exome-chip screening of 12 prior genome-wide association study-identified genetic variants of Vit-D mechanistic pathways (rs2060793, rs4588, and rs7041; F statistic, 73; P<0.001), we performed a focused analysis on prospective recurrence of myocardial infarction (MI) and ischemic stroke in an independent subsample with established ischemic disease (n=441, all with prior first ischemic event; follow-up duration, 41.6±14.3 years) under a 2-sample, individual-data, prospective Mendelian randomization approach.

RESULTS

In the ischemic disease subsample, 11.1% (n=49/441) had developed recurrent ischemic stroke or MI and 13.3% (n=58/441) had developed recurrent or de novo ischemic stroke/MI. Kaplan-Meier analyses showed that genetic risk score predicted improved event-free survival from recurrent ischemic stroke or MI (log-rank, 13.0; P=0.001). Cox regression revealed that genetic risk score independently predicted reduced risk of recurrent ischemic stroke or MI combined (hazards ratio, 0.62 [95% CI, 0.48-0.81]; P<0.001), after adjusted for potential confounders. Mendelian randomization supported that Vit-D is causally protective against the primary end points of recurrent ischemic stroke or MI (Wald estimate: odds ratio, 0.55 [95% CI, 0.35-0.81]) and any recurrent or de novo ischemic stroke/MI (odds ratio, 0.64 [95% CI, 0.42-0.91]) and recurrent MI alone (odds ratio, 0.52 [95% CI, 0.30-0.81]).

CONCLUSIONS

Genetically predicted lowering in Vit-D level is causal for the recurrence of ischemic vascular events in persons with prior ischemic stroke or MI.

Atrial Fibrillation Diagnosis using ECG Records and Self-Report in the Community: Cross-Sectional Analysis from ELSA-Brasil

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation or flutter (AFF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia. Limited data can be found on AFF epidemiology in South America.

OBJECTIVE

The present study sought to describe the clinical epidemiology of AFF and the use of stroke prevention medication in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) baseline assessment.

METHODS

This study analyzed data from 13,260 ELSA-Brasil participants. AFF was defined according to ECG recording or by self-report. Logistic regression models were built to analyze factors associated with AFF. This study also analyzed if age and sex were associated with anticoagulant use for stroke prevention. Significance level was set at 5%.

RESULTS

Median age was 51 years and 7,213 (54.4%) participants were women. AFF was present in 333 (2.5%) participants. Increasing age (odds ratio [OR]:1.05; 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 1.04-1.07), hypertension (OR:1.44; 95%CI: 1.14-1.81), coronary heart disease (OR: 5.11; 95%CI: 3.85-6.79), heart failure (OR:7.37; 95%CI: 5.00-10.87), and rheumatic fever (OR:3.38; 95%CI: 2.28-5.02) were associated with AFF. From 185 participants with AFF and a CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2, only 20 (10.8%) used anticoagulants (50.0% among those with AFF in the baseline ECG). Stroke prevention in this group was associated with a higher age (1.8% vs 17.7% in those aged ≤ 54 and ≥ 65 years, respectively; p=0.013). A trend towards a reduced anticoagulant use was observed in women (7.1% vs. 16.4% in women and men, respectively; p=0.055).

CONCLUSIONS

At the ELSA-Brasil baseline, 2.5% of the participants had AFF. The lack of stroke prevention was common, which is an especially challenging point for healthcare in this setting.

Comparison of Respiratory Health Impacts Associated with Wood and Charcoal Biomass Fuels: A Population-Based Analysis of 475,000 Children from 30 Low- and Middle-Income Countries

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organisation reported that 45% of global acute respiratory infection (ARI) deaths in children under five years are attributable to household air pollution, which has been recognised to be strongly associated with solid biomass fuel usage in domestic settings. The introduction of legislative restrictions for charcoal production or purchase can result in unintended consequences, such as reversion to more polluting biomass fuels such as wood; which may increase health and environmental harms. However, there remains a paucity of evidence concerning the relative health risks between wood and charcoal. This study compares the risk of respiratory symptoms, ARI, and severe ARI among children aged under five years living in wood and charcoal fuel households across 30 low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

Data from children (N = 475,089) residing in wood or charcoal cooking households were extracted from multiple population-based Demographic and Health Survey databases (DHS) (N = 30 countries). Outcome measures were obtained from a maternal report of respiratory symptoms (cough, shortness of breath and fever) occurring in the two weeks prior to the survey date, generating a composite measure of ARI (cough and shortness of breath) and severe ARI (cough, shortness of breath and fever). Multivariable logistic regression analyses were implemented, with adjustment at individual, household, regional and country level for relevant demographic, social, and health-related confounding factors.

RESULTS

Increased odds ratios of fever (AOR: 1.07; 95% CI: 1.02-1.12) were observed among children living in wood cooking households compared to the use of charcoal. However, no association was observed with shortness of breath (AOR: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.96-1.10), cough (AOR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.95-1.04), ARI (AOR: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.96-1.11) or severe ARI (AOR: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.99-1.17). Within rural areas, only shortness of breath was observed to be associated with wood cooking (AOR: 1.08; 95% CI: 1.01-1.15). However, an increased odds ratio of ARI was observed in Asian (AOR: 1.25; 95% CI: 1.04-1.51) and East African countries (AOR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.01-1.22) only.

CONCLUSION

Our population-based observational data indicates that in Asia and East Africa there is a greater risk of ARI among children aged under 5 years living in wood compared to charcoal cooking households. These findings have major implications for understanding the existing health impacts of wood-based biomass fuel usage and may be of relevance to settings where charcoal fuel restrictions are under consideration.

Incidence of cardiometabolic diseases in people living with and without HIV in the UK: a population-based matched cohort study

Background

Evidence on the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and CVD risk factors in people with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) is limited. We aimed to identify the risk of composite CVD, individual CVD events, and common risk factors.

Methods

This was a nationwide, population-based, cohort study comparing adult (≥18 years old) PWH with people without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) matched on age, sex, ethnicity, and location. The primary outcome was composite CVD comprising stroke, myocardial infarction, peripheral vascular disease, ischemic heart disease, and heart failure. The secondary outcomes were individual CVD events, hypertension, diabetes, chronic kidney disease (CKD), and all-cause mortality. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to examine the risk of each outcome.

Results

We identified 9233 PWH and matched them with 35 721 HIV-negative individuals. An increased risk was found for composite CVD (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.50; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.28–1.77), stroke (aHR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.08–1.86), ischemic heart disease (aHR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.24–1.94), hypertension (aHR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.23–1.53), type 2 diabetes (aHR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.09–1.50), CKD (aHR, 2.42; 95% CI, 1.98–2.94), and all-cause mortality (aHR, 2.84; 95% CI, 2.48–3.25).

Conclusions

PWH have a heightened risk for CVD and common CVD risk factors, reinforcing the importance for regular screening for such conditions.

A Cross-Sectional Analysis of the Association between Domestic Cooking Energy Source Type and Respiratory Infections among Children Aged under Five Years: Evidence from Demographic and Household Surveys in 37 Low-Middle Income Countries

BACKGROUND

In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), household air pollution as a result of using solid biomass for cooking, lighting and heating (HAP) is associated with respiratory infections, accounting for approximately 4 million early deaths each year worldwide. The majority of deaths are among children under five years. This population-based cross-sectional study investigates the association between solid biomass usage and risk of acute respiratory infections (ARI) and acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in 37 LMICs within Africa, Americas, Southeast Asia, European, Eastern Mediterranean and Western Pacific regions.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using population-based data obtained from Demographic and Health surveys (2010-2018), domestic cooking energy sources were classified solid biomass (wood, charcoal/dung, agricultural crop) and cleaner energy sources (e.g., Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG), electricity, biogas and natural gas). Composite measures of ARI (shortness of breath, cough) and ALRI (shortness of breath, cough and fever) were composed using maternally reported respiratory symptoms over the two-week period prior to the interview. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify the association between biomass fuel usage with ARI and ALRI, accounting for relevant individual, household and situational confounders, including stratification by context (urban/rural).

RESULTS

After adjustment, in the pooled analysis, children residing in solid biomass cooking households had an observed increased adjusted odds ratio of ARI (AOR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.09-1.25) and ALRI (AOR: 1.16; 95% CI 1.07-1.25) compared to cleaner energy sources. In stratified analyses, a comparable association was observed in urban areas (ARI: 1.16 [1.06-1.28]; ALRI: 1.14 [1.02-1.27]), but only significant for ARI among those living in rural areas (ARI: 1.14 [1.03-1.26]).

CONCLUSION

Switching domestic cooking energy sources from solid biomass to cleaner alternatives would achieve a respiratory health benefit in children under five years worldwide. High quality mixed-methods research is required to improve acceptability and sustained uptake of clean cooking energy source interventions in LMIC settings.

Trends in the pharmacological management of atrial fibrillation in UK general practice 2008-2018

OBJECTIVE

The pharmacological management of atrial fibrillation (AF) comprises anticoagulation, for stroke prophylaxis, and rate or rhythm control drugs to alleviate symptoms and prevent heart failure. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in the proportion of patients with AF prescribed pharmacological therapies in the UK between 2008 and 2018.

METHODS

Eleven sequential cross-sectional analyses were performed yearly from 2008 to 2018. Data were derived from an anonymised UK primary care database. Outcomes were the proportion of patients with AF prescribed anticoagulants, rhythm and rate control drugs in the whole cohort, those at high risk of stroke and those with coexisting heart failure.

RESULTS

Between 2008 and 2018, the proportion of patients prescribed anticoagulants increased from 45.3% (95% CI 45.0% to 45.7%) to 71.1% (95% CI 70.7% to 71.5%) driven by increased prescription of non-vitamin K antagonist anticoagulants. The proportion of patients prescribed rate control drugs remained constant between 2008 and 2018 (69.3% (95% CI 68.9% to 69.6%) to 71.6% (95% CI 71.2% to 71.9%)). The proportion of patients prescribed rhythm control therapy by general practitioners (GPs) decreased from 9.5% (95% CI 9.3% to 9.7%) to 5.4% (95% CI 5.2% to 5.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

There has been an increase in the proportion of patients with AF appropriately prescribed anticoagulants following National Institute for Health and Care Excellence and European Society of Cardiology guidelines, which correlates with improvements in mortality and stroke outcomes. Beta-blockers appear increasingly favoured over digoxin for rate control. There has been a steady decline in GP prescribing rates for rhythm control drugs, possibly related to concerns over efficacy and safety and increased availability of AF ablation.

Obesity Without Metabolic Abnormality and Incident CKD: A Population-Based British Cohort Study

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Metabolically healthy obesity (obesity without any metabolic abnormality) is not considered to be associated with increased risk of morbidity and mortality. We examined and quantified the association between metabolically healthy overweight/obesity and the risk of incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) in a British primary care population.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective population-based cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

4,447,955 of the 5,182,908 adults in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database (United Kingdom, 1995-2015) with a recorded body mass index (BMI) at the time of registration date who were free of CKD and cardiovascular disease.

EXPOSURE

11 body size phenotypes were created, defined by BMI categories (underweight, normal weight, overweight, and obesity) and 3 metabolic abnormalities (diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia).

OUTCOME

Incident CKD defined as a recorded code for kidney replacement therapy, a recorded diagnosis of CKD, or by an estimated glomerular filtration rate of<60mL/min/1.73m² for≥90 days, or a urinary albumin-creatinine ratio>3mg/mmol for≥90 days.

RESULTS

Of the 4.5 million individuals, 1,040,921 (23.4%) and 588,909 (13.2%) had metabolically healthy overweight and metabolically healthy obesity, respectively. During a mean follow-up interval of 5.4±4.3 (SD) years, compared with individuals with a metabolically healthy normal weight (n=1,656,231), there was a higher risk of incident CKD among those who had metabolically healthy overweight (adjusted HR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.28-1.33]) and metabolically healthy obesity (adjusted HR, 1.66 [95% CI, 1.62-1.70]). The association was stronger in those younger than 65 years of age. In all BMI categories, there was greater risk of incident CKD with a greater number of metabolic abnormalities in a graded manner.

LIMITATIONS

Potential misclassification of metabolic status due to delayed diagnosis and residual confounding due to unmeasured factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Overweight and obesity without metabolic abnormality are associated with a higher risk of incident CKD compared with those with normal body weight and no metabolic abnormality.

Nonsteroidal Antiinflammatory Drugs and Susceptibility to COVID-19

Objective

To identify whether active use of nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) increases susceptibility to developing suspected or confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) compared to the use of other common analgesics.

Methods

We performed a propensity score–matched cohort study with active comparators, using a large UK primary care data set. The cohort consisted of adult patients age ≥18 years with osteoarthritis (OA) who were followed up from January 30 to July 31, 2020. Patients prescribed an NSAID (excluding topical preparations) were compared to those prescribed either co‐codamol (paracetamol and codeine) or co‐dydramol (paracetamol and dihydrocodeine). A total of 13,202 patients prescribed NSAIDs were identified, compared to 12,457 patients prescribed the comparator drugs. The primary outcome measure was the documentation of suspected or confirmed COVID‐19, and the secondary outcome measure was all‐cause mortality.

Results

During follow‐up, the incidence rates of suspected/confirmed COVID‐19 were 15.4 and 19.9 per 1,000 person‐years in the NSAID‐exposed group and comparator group, respectively. Adjusted hazard ratios for suspected or confirmed COVID‐19 among the unmatched and propensity score–matched OA cohorts, using data from clinical consultations in primary care settings, were 0.82 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.62–1.10) and 0.79 (95% CI 0.57–1.11), respectively, and adjusted hazard ratios for the risk of all‐cause mortality were 0.97 (95% CI 0.75–1.27) and 0.85 (95% CI 0.61–1.20), respectively. There was no effect modification by age or sex.

Conclusion

No increase in the risk of suspected or confirmed COVID‐19 or mortality was observed among patients with OA in a primary care setting who were prescribed NSAIDs as compared to those who received comparator drugs. These results are reassuring and suggest that in the absence of acute illness, NSAIDs can be safely prescribed during the ongoing pandemic.