The EDGE2 protocol: Advancing the prioritisation of Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered species for practical conservation action

The conservation of evolutionary history has been linked to increased benefits for humanity and can be captured by phylogenetic diversity (PD). The Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) metric has, since 2007, been used to prioritise threatened species for practical conservation that embody large amounts of evolutionary history. While there have been important research advances since 2007, they have not been adopted in practice because of a lack of consensus in the conservation community. Here, building from an interdisciplinary workshop to update the existing EDGE approach, we present an "EDGE2" protocol that draws on a decade of research and innovation to develop an improved, consistent methodology for prioritising species conservation efforts. Key advances include methods for dealing with uncertainty and accounting for the extinction risk of closely related species. We describe EDGE2 in terms of distinct components to facilitate future revisions to its constituent parts without needing to reconsider the whole. We illustrate EDGE2 by applying it to the world's mammals. As we approach a crossroads for global biodiversity policy, this Consensus View shows how collaboration between academic and applied conservation biologists can guide effective and practical priority-setting to conserve biodiversity.

Climate change, land cover change, and overharvesting threaten a widely used medicinal plant in South Africa

Medicinal plants contribute substantially to the well-being of people in large parts of the world, providing traditional medicine and supporting livelihoods from trading plant parts, which is especially significant for women in low-income communities. However, the availability of wild medicinal plants is increasingly threatened; for example, the Natal Lily (Clivia miniata), which is one of the most widely traded plants in informal medicine markets in South Africa, lost over 40% of individuals over the last 90 years. Understanding the species' response to individual and multiple pressures is essential for prioritizing and planning conservation actions. To gain this understanding, we simulated the future range and abundance of C. miniata by coupling Species Distribution Models with a metapopulation model (RAMAS-GIS). We contrasted scenarios of climate change (RCP2.6 vs. RCP8.5), land cover change (intensification vs. expansion), and harvesting (only juveniles vs. all life-stages). All our scenarios pointed to continuing declines in suitable habitat and abundance by the 2050s. When acting independently, climate change, land cover change, and harvesting each reduced the projected abundance substantially, with land cover change causing the most pronounced declines. Harvesting individuals from all life stages affected the projected metapopulation size more negatively than extracting only juveniles. When the three pressures acted together, declines of suitable habitat and abundance accelerated but uncertainties were too large to identify whether pressures acted synergistically, additively, or antagonistically. Our results suggest that conservation should prioritize the protection of suitable habitat and ensure sustainable harvesting to support a viable metapopulation under realistic levels of climate change. Inadequate management of C. miniata populations in the wild will likely have negative consequences for the well-being of people relying on this ecosystem service, and we expect there may be comparable consequences relating to other medicinal plants in different parts of the world.

GalliForm, a database of Galliformes occurrence records from the Indo-Malay and Palaearctic, 1800-2008

Historical as well as current species distribution data are needed to track changes in biodiversity. Species distribution data are found in a variety of sources, each of which has its own distinct bias toward certain taxa, time periods or places. We present GalliForm, a database that comprises 186687 galliform occurrence records linked to 118907 localities in Europe and Asia. Records were derived from museums, peer-reviewed and grey literature, unpublished field notes, diaries and correspondence, banding records, atlas records and online birding trip reports. We describe data collection processes, georeferencing methods and quality-control procedures. This database has underpinned several peer-reviewed studies, investigating spatial and temporal bias in biodiversity data, species' geographic range changes and local extirpation patterns. In our rapidly changing world, an understanding of long-term change in species' distributions is key to predicting future impacts of threatening processes such as land use change, over-exploitation of species and climate change. This database, its historical aspect in particular, provides a valuable source of information for further studies in macroecology and biodiversity conservation.

Modelling parameter uncertainty reveals bushmeat yields versus survival trade-offs in heavily-hunted duiker Cephalophus spp

Reliably predicting sustainable exploitation levels for many tropical species subject to hunting remains a difficult task, largely because of the inherent uncertainty associated with estimating parameters related to both population dynamics and hunting pressure. Here, we investigate a modelling approach to support decisions in bushmeat management which explicitly considers parameter uncertainty. We apply the approach to duiker Cephalophus spp., assuming either a constant quota-based, or a constant proportional harvesting, strategy. Within each strategy, we evaluate different hunting levels in terms of both average yield and survival probability, over different time horizons. Under quota-based harvesting, considering uncertainty revealed a trade-off between yield and extinction probability that was not evident when ignoring uncertainty. The highest yield was returned by a quota that implied a 40% extinction risk, whereas limiting extinction risk to 10% reduced yield by 50%-70%. By contrast, under proportional harvesting, there was no trade-off between yield and extinction probability. The maximum proportion returned a yield comparable with the maximum possible under quota-based harvesting, but with extinction risk below 10%. However, proportional harvesting can be harder to implement in practice because it depends on an estimate of population size. In both harvesting approaches, predicted yields were highly right-skewed with median yields differing from mean yields, implying that decision outcomes depend on attitude to risk. The analysis shows how an explicit consideration of all available information, including uncertainty, can, as part of a wider process involving multiple stakeholders, help inform harvesting policies.

Analogies and lessons from COVID-19 for tackling the extinction and climate crises

As environmental scientists working in countries whose COVID-linked deaths already exceed their military casualties from all campaigns since 1945, we believe there are significant messages from the handling of this horrific disease for efforts addressing the enormous challenges posed by the ongoing extinction and climate emergencies.

Patterns of biodiversity response along a gradient of forest use in Eastern Amazonia, Brazil

The preservation of tropical forests is increasingly at risk, including forests located within human-modified landscapes that retain high conservation value. People modify and interact with these landscapes through a wide range of uses. However, our knowledge of how different forest uses affect biodiversity is limited. Here, we analyse the responses of different taxa to four distinct categories of forest management, namely old-growth forest, Brazil nut extraction areas, reduced impact logging areas, and eucalyptus plantations. Within six independent replicates of each category, we sampled three taxa (fruit-feeding butterflies, dung beetles, and trees) in eastern Amazonia. Forests under moderate use (Brazil nut extraction and reduced-impact logging) had similar, albeit slightly lower, diversity levels relative to old-growth forests, while communities in plantations were significantly less diverse. Only 4%, 20%, and 17%, of the sampled butterfly, dung beetle, and tree species, respectively, were restricted to old-growth forests. This study provides further empirical evidence of the importance of old-growth forest conservation in the context of human-modified landscapes. It also suggests that landscape matrices integrating forest uses at varying intensities are well positioned to reconcile biodiversity conservation with the production of goods that support local livelihoods.

Compatibility between agendas for improving human development and wildlife conservation outside protected areas: Insights from 20 years of data

The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) include economic, social and environmental dimensions of human development and make explicit commitments to all of life on Earth. Evidence of continuing global biodiversity loss has, at the same time, led to a succession of internationally agreed conservation targets.With multiple targets (even within one policy realm, e.g. the CBD Aichi Targets for biodiversity), it is possible for different indicators to respond in the same direction, in opposite directions or to show no particular relationship. When considering the different sectors of the SDGs, there are many possible relationships among indicators that have been widely discussed, but rarely analysed in detail.Here, we present a comparative cross-national analysis exploring temporally integrated linkages between human development indicators and wildlife conservation trends.The results suggest that in lower income countries there are negative relationships between measures of human population growth and bird and mammal population abundance trends outside protected areas.The results also suggest a positive relationship between economic growth and wildlife population trends in lower income countries. We stress, however, the need for future research to further explore the relationships between economic growth and natural resource-based imports.Our results highlight a clear potential for compatibility of the conservation and development agendas and support the need for further integration among sustainable development strategies. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Insights from modeling studies on how climate change affects invasive alien species geography

Climate change and biological invasions are threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. It has now been widely acknowledged that climate change will affect biological invasions. A large number of studies have investigated predicted shifts and other changes in the geographic ranges of invasive alien species related to climate change using modeling approaches. Yet these studies have provided contradictory evidence, and no consensus has been reached. We conducted a systematic review of 423 modeling case studies included in 71 publications that have examined the predicted effects of climate change on those species. We differentiate the approaches used in these studies and synthesize their main results. Our results reaffirm the major role of climate change as a driver of invasive alien species distribution in the future. We found biases in the literature both regarding the taxa, toward plants and invertebrates, and the areas of the planet investigated. Despite these biases, we found for the plants and vertebrates studied that climate change will more frequently contribute to a decrease in species range size than an increase in the overall area occupied. This is largely due to oceans preventing terrestrial invaders from spreading poleward. In contrast, we found that the ranges of invertebrates and pathogens studied are more likely to increase following climate change. An important caveat to these findings is that researchers have rarely considered the effects of climate change on transport, introduction success, or the resulting impacts. We recommend closing these research gaps, and propose additional avenues for future investigations, as well as opportunities and challenges for managing invasions under climate change.

Examining the relationship between local extinction risk and position in range

Over half of globally threatened animal species have experienced rapid geographic range loss. Identifying the parts of species' distributions most vulnerable to local extinction would benefit conservation planning. However, previous studies give little consensus on whether ranges decline to the core or edge. We built on previous work by using empirical data to examine the position of recent local extinctions within species' geographic ranges, address range position as a continuum, and explore the influence of environmental factors. We aggregated point-locality data for 125 Galliform species from across the Palearctic and Indo-Malaya into equal-area half-degree grid cells and used a multispecies dynamic Bayesian occupancy model to estimate rates of local extinctions. Our model provides a novel approach to identify loss of populations from within species ranges. We investigated the relationship between extinction rates and distance from range edge by examining whether patterns were consistent across biogeographic realm and different categories of land use. In the Palearctic, local extinctions occurred closer to the range edge than range core in both unconverted and human-dominated landscapes. In Indo-Malaya, no pattern was found for unconverted landscapes, but in human-dominated landscapes extinctions tended to occur closer to the core than the edge. Our results suggest that local and regional factors override general spatial patterns of recent local extinction within species' ranges and highlight the difficulty of predicting the parts of a species' distribution most vulnerable to threat.

Biodiversity in the Anthropocene: prospects and policy

Meeting the ever-increasing needs of the Earth's human population without excessively reducing biological diversity is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity, suggesting that new approaches to biodiversity conservation are required. One idea rapidly gaining momentum-as well as opposition-is to incorporate the values of biodiversity into decision-making using economic methods. Here, we develop several lines of argument for how biodiversity might be valued, building on recent developments in natural science, economics and science-policy processes. Then we provide a synoptic guide to the papers in this special feature, summarizing recent research advances relevant to biodiversity valuation and management. Current evidence suggests that more biodiverse systems have greater stability and resilience, and that by maximizing key components of biodiversity we maximize an ecosystem's long-term value. Moreover, many services and values arising from biodiversity are interdependent, and often poorly captured by standard economic models. We conclude that economic valuation approaches to biodiversity conservation should (i) account for interdependency and (ii) complement rather than replace traditional approaches. To identify possible solutions, we present a framework for understanding the foundational role of hard-to-quantify 'biodiversity services' in sustaining the value of ecosystems to humanity, and then use this framework to highlight new directions for pure and applied research. In most cases, clarifying the links between biodiversity and ecosystem services, and developing effective policy and practice for managing biodiversity, will require a genuinely interdisciplinary approach.

Transforming conservation science and practice for a postnormal world

We examine issues to consider when reframing conservation science and practice in the context of global change. New framings of the links between ecosystems and society are emerging that are changing peoples' values and expectations of nature, resulting in plural perspectives on conservation. Reframing conservation for global change can thus be regarded as a stage in the evolving relationship between people and nature rather than some recent trend. New models of how conservation links with transformative adaptation include how decision contexts for conservation can be reframed and integrated with an adaptation pathways approach to create new options for global-change-ready conservation. New relationships for conservation science and governance include coproduction of knowledge that supports social learning. New processes for implementing adaptation for conservation outcomes include deliberate practices used to develop new strategies, shift world views, work with conflict, address power and intergenerational equity in decisions, and build consciousness and creativity that empower agents to act. We argue that reframing conservation for global change requires scientists and practitioners to implement approaches unconstrained by discipline and sectoral boundaries, geopolitical polarities, or technical problematization. We consider a stronger focus on inclusive creation of knowledge and the interaction of this knowledge with societal values and rules is likely to result in conservation science and practice that meets the challenges of a postnormal world.

Linking the influence and dependence of people on biodiversity across scales

Biodiversity enhances many of nature's benefits to people, including the regulation of climate and the production of wood in forests, livestock forage in grasslands and fish in aquatic ecosystems. Yet people are now driving the sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history. Human dependence and influence on biodiversity have mainly been studied separately and at contrasting scales of space and time, but new multiscale knowledge is beginning to link these relationships. Biodiversity loss substantially diminishes several ecosystem services by altering ecosystem functioning and stability, especially at the large temporal and spatial scales that are most relevant for policy and conservation.

The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

Uncertainty in identifying local extinctions: the distribution of missing data and its effects on biodiversity measures

Identifying local extinctions is integral to estimating species richness and geographic range changes and informing extinction risk assessments. However, the species occurrence records underpinning these estimates are frequently compromised by a lack of recorded species absences making it impossible to distinguish between local extinction and lack of survey effort-for a rigorously compiled database of European and Asian Galliformes, approximately 40% of half-degree cells contain records from before but not after 1980. We investigate the distribution of these cells, finding differences between the Palaearctic (forests, low mean human influence index (HII), outside protected areas (PAs)) and Indo-Malaya (grassland, high mean HII, outside PAs). Such cells also occur more in less peaceful countries. We show that different interpretations of these cells can lead to large over/under-estimations of species richness and extent of occurrences, potentially misleading prioritization and extinction risk assessment schemes. To avoid mistakes, local extinctions inferred from sightings records need to account for the history of survey effort in a locality.

Historical drivers of extinction risk: using past evidence to direct future monitoring

Global commitments to halt biodiversity decline mean that it is essential to monitor species' extinction risk. However, the work required to assess extinction risk is intensive. We demonstrate an alternative approach to monitoring extinction risk, based on the response of species to external conditions. Using retrospective International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessments, we classify transitions in the extinction risk of 497 mammalian carnivores and ungulates between 1975 and 2013. Species that moved to lower Red List categories, or remained Least Concern, were classified as 'lower risk'; species that stayed in a threatened category, or moved to a higher category of risk, were classified as 'higher risk'. Twenty-four predictor variables were used to predict transitions, including intrinsic traits (species biology) and external conditions (human pressure, distribution state and conservation interventions). The model correctly classified up to 90% of all transitions and revealed complex interactions between variables, such as protected areas (PAs) versus human impact. The most important predictors were: past extinction risk, PA extent, geographical range size, body size, taxonomic family and human impact. Our results suggest that monitoring a targeted set of metrics would efficiently identify species facing a higher risk, and could guide the allocation of resources between monitoring species' extinction risk and monitoring external conditions.

Accounting for the environment as an economic asset: global progress and realizing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

National and international efforts to develop natural capital accounts are proliferating. The newly agreed 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development echoes these efforts. Continued cooperation is needed to overcome key scientific and policy challenges.

Biodiversity and Resilience of Ecosystem Functions

Accelerating rates of environmental change and the continued loss of global biodiversity threaten functions and services delivered by ecosystems. Much ecosystem monitoring and management is focused on the provision of ecosystem functions and services under current environmental conditions, yet this could lead to inappropriate management guidance and undervaluation of the importance of biodiversity. The maintenance of ecosystem functions and services under substantial predicted future environmental change (i.e., their 'resilience') is crucial. Here we identify a range of mechanisms underpinning the resilience of ecosystem functions across three ecological scales. Although potentially less important in the short term, biodiversity, encompassing variation from within species to across landscapes, may be crucial for the longer-term resilience of ecosystem functions and the services that they underpin.

A global model of the response of tropical and sub-tropical forest biodiversity to anthropogenic pressures

Habitat loss and degradation, driven largely by agricultural expansion and intensification, present the greatest immediate threat to biodiversity. Tropical forests harbour among the highest levels of terrestrial species diversity and are likely to experience rapid land-use change in the coming decades. Synthetic analyses of observed responses of species are useful for quantifying how land use affects biodiversity and for predicting outcomes under land-use scenarios. Previous applications of this approach have typically focused on individual taxonomic groups, analysing the average response of the whole community to changes in land use. Here, we incorporate quantitative remotely sensed data about habitats in, to our knowledge, the first worldwide synthetic analysis of how individual species in four major taxonomic groups—invertebrates, ‘herptiles’ (reptiles and amphibians), mammals and birds—respond to multiple human pressures in tropical and sub-tropical forests. We show significant independent impacts of land use, human vegetation offtake, forest cover and human population density on both occurrence and abundance of species, highlighting the value of analysing multiple explanatory variables simultaneously. Responses differ among the four groups considered, and—within birds and mammals—between habitat specialists and habitat generalists and between narrow-ranged and wide-ranged species.

Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity

Human activities, especially conversion and degradation of habitats, are causing global biodiversity declines. How local ecological assemblages are responding is less clear--a concern given their importance for many ecosystem functions and services. We analysed a terrestrial assemblage database of unprecedented geographic and taxonomic coverage to quantify local biodiversity responses to land use and related changes. Here we show that in the worst-affected habitats, these pressures reduce within-sample species richness by an average of 76.5%, total abundance by 39.5% and rarefaction-based richness by 40.3%. We estimate that, globally, these pressures have already slightly reduced average within-sample richness (by 13.6%), total abundance (10.7%) and rarefaction-based richness (8.1%), with changes showing marked spatial variation. Rapid further losses are predicted under a business-as-usual land-use scenario; within-sample richness is projected to fall by a further 3.4% globally by 2100, with losses concentrated in biodiverse but economically poor countries. Strong mitigation can deliver much more positive biodiversity changes (up to a 1.9% average increase) that are less strongly related to countries' socioeconomic status.

REVIEW: Towards a risk register for natural capital

Natural capital is essential for goods and services on which people depend. Yet pressures on the environment mean that natural capital assets are continuing to decline and degrade, putting such benefits at risk. Systematic monitoring of natural assets is a major challenge that could be both unaffordable and unmanageable without a way to focus efforts. Here we introduce a simple approach, based on the commonly used management tool of a risk register, to highlight natural assets whose condition places benefits at risk.We undertake a preliminary assessment using a risk register for natural capital assets in the UK based solely on existing information. The status and trends of natural capital assets are assessed using asset-benefit relationships for ten kinds of benefits (food, fibre (timber), energy, aesthetics, freshwater (quality), recreation, clean air, wildlife, hazard protection and equable climate) across eight broad habitat types in the UK based on three dimensions of natural capital within each of the habitat types (quality, quantity and spatial configuration). We estimate the status and trends of benefits relative to societal targets using existing regulatory limits and policy commitments, and allocate scores of high, medium or low risk to asset-benefit relationships that are both subject to management and of concern.The risk register approach reveals substantial gaps in knowledge about asset-benefit relationships which limit the scope and rigour of the assessment (especially for marine and urban habitats). Nevertheless, we find strong indications that certain assets (in freshwater, mountain, moors and heathland habitats) are at high risk in relation to their ability to sustain certain benefits (especially freshwater, wildlife and climate regulation). Synthesis and applications. With directed data gathering, especially to monitor trends, improve metrics related to asset-benefit relationships, and improve understanding of nonlinearities and thresholds, the natural capital risk register could provide a useful tool. If updated regularly, it could direct monitoring efforts, focus research and protect and manage those natural assets where benefits are at highest risk.

Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet

The planetary boundary (PB) concept, introduced in 2009, aimed to define the environmental limits within which humanity can safely operate. This approach has proved influential in global sustainability policy development. Steffen et al. provide an updated and extended analysis of the PB framework. Of the original nine proposed boundaries, they identify three (including climate change) that might push the Earth system into a new state if crossed and that also have a pervasive influence on the remaining boundaries. They also develop the PB framework so that it can be applied usefully in a regional context.

Science , this issue 10.1126/science.1259855

The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts

Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species’ threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project – and avert – future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups – including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems – http://www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015.

Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change

Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk.

Predictive systems ecology

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

Functional traits, the phylogeny of function, and ecosystem service vulnerability

People depend on benefits provided by ecological systems. Understanding how these ecosystem services - and the ecosystem properties underpinning them - respond to drivers of change is therefore an urgent priority. We address this challenge through developing a novel risk-assessment framework that integrates ecological and evolutionary perspectives on functional traits to determine species' effects on ecosystems and their tolerance of environmental changes. We define Specific Effect Function (SEF) as the per-gram or per capita capacity of a species to affect an ecosystem property, and Specific Response Function (SRF) as the ability of a species to maintain or enhance its population as the environment changes. Our risk assessment is based on the idea that the security of ecosystem services depends on how effects (SEFs) and tolerances (SRFs) of organisms - which both depend on combinations of functional traits - correlate across species and how they are arranged on the species' phylogeny. Four extreme situations are theoretically possible, from minimum concern when SEF and SRF are neither correlated nor show a phylogenetic signal, to maximum concern when they are negatively correlated (i.e., the most important species are the least tolerant) and phylogenetically patterned (lacking independent backup). We illustrate the assessment with five case studies, involving both plant and animal examples. However, the extent to which the frequency of the four plausible outcomes, or their intermediates, apply more widely in real-world ecological systems is an open question that needs empirical evidence, and suggests a research agenda at the interface of evolutionary biology and ecosystem ecology.

Bringing ecosystem services into economic decision-making: land use in the United Kingdom

Landscapes generate a wide range of valuable ecosystem services, yet land-use decisions often ignore the value of these services. Using the example of the United Kingdom, we show the significance of land-use change not only for agricultural production but also for emissions and sequestration of greenhouse gases, open-access recreational visits, urban green space, and wild-species diversity. We use spatially explicit models in conjunction with valuation methods to estimate comparable economic values for these services, taking account of climate change impacts. We show that, although decisions that focus solely on agriculture reduce overall ecosystem service values, highly significant value increases can be obtained from targeted planning by incorporating all potential services and their values and that this approach also conserves wild-species diversity.

A new method for identifying rapid decline dynamics in wild vertebrate populations

Tracking trends in the abundance of wildlife populations is a sensitive method for assessing biodiversity change due to the short time-lag between human pressures and corresponding shifts in population trends. This study tests for proposed associations between different types of human pressures and wildlife population abundance decline-curves and introduces a method to distinguish decline trajectories from natural fluctuations in population time-series. First, we simulated typical mammalian population time-series under different human pressure types and intensities and identified significant distinctions in population dynamics. Based on the concavity of the smoothed population trend and the algebraic function which was the closest fit to the data, we determined those differences in decline dynamics that were consistently attributable to each pressure type. We examined the robustness of the attribution of pressure type to population decline dynamics under more realistic conditions by simulating populations under different levels of environmental stochasticity and time-series data quality. Finally, we applied our newly developed method to 124 wildlife population time-series and investigated how those threat types diagnosed by our method compare to the specific threatening processes reported for those populations. We show how wildlife population decline curves can be used to discern between broad categories of pressure or threat types, but do not work for detailed threat attributions. More usefully, we find that differences in population decline curves can reliably identify populations where pressure is increasing over time, even when data quality is poor, and propose this method as a cost-effective technique for prioritizing conservation actions between populations.

Identifying the world's most climate change vulnerable species: a systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians and corals

Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species' biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world's birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608-851 bird (6-9%), 670-933 amphibian (11-15%), and 47-73 coral species (6-9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can be used to devise species and area-specific conservation interventions and indices. The priorities we identify will strengthen global strategies to mitigate climate change impacts.

Protected areas in South Asia have not prevented habitat loss: a study using historical models of land-use change

Habitat loss imperils species both locally and globally, so protection of intact habitat is critical for slowing the rate of biodiversity decline. Globally, more than 150,000 protected areas have been designated with a goal of protecting species and ecosystems, but whether they can continue to achieve this goal as human impacts escalate is unknown. Here we show that in South Asia, one of the world's major growth epicentres, the trajectory of habitat conversion rates inside protected areas is indistinguishable from that on unprotected lands, and habitat conversion rates do not decline following gazettement of a protected area. Moreover, a quarter of the land inside South Asia's protected areas is now classified as human modified. If the global community is to make significant progress towards the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi Target on protected areas, there is an urgent need both to substantially enhance management of these protected areas and to develop systematic conservation outside the formal protected area system.

Synthetic biology and conservation of nature: wicked problems and wicked solutions

So far, conservation scientists have paid little attention to synthetic biology; this is unfortunate as the technology is likely to transform the operating space within which conservation functions, and therefore the prospects for maintaining biodiversity into the future.

The limits to sustainability science: ecological constraints or endless innovation?

Ecological principles must govern sustainability, yet sustainability science is largely concerned with social-environmental interactions and barely considers physical limits on resource use. Whether it is possible to overcome such limits can be contested, but the issues raised by a macroecological perspective should be a fundamental part of the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20).

Ecosystem impacts of geoengineering: a review for developing a science plan

Geoengineering methods are intended to reduce climate change, which is already having demonstrable effects on ecosystem structure and functioning in some regions. Two types of geoengineering activities that have been proposed are: carbon dioxide (CO(2)) removal (CDR), which removes CO(2) from the atmosphere, and solar radiation management (SRM, or sunlight reflection methods), which reflects a small percentage of sunlight back into space to offset warming from greenhouse gases (GHGs). Current research suggests that SRM or CDR might diminish the impacts of climate change on ecosystems by reducing changes in temperature and precipitation. However, sudden cessation of SRM would exacerbate the climate effects on ecosystems, and some CDR might interfere with oceanic and terrestrial ecosystem processes. The many risks and uncertainties associated with these new kinds of purposeful perturbations to the Earth system are not well understood and require cautious and comprehensive research.

Biodiversity and ecosystem services science for a sustainable planet: the DIVERSITAS vision for 2012-20

DIVERSITAS, the international programme on biodiversity science, is releasing a strategic vision presenting scientific challenges for the next decade of research on biodiversity and ecosystem services: "Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Science for a Sustainable Planet". This new vision is a response of the biodiversity and ecosystem services scientific community to the accelerating loss of the components of biodiversity, as well as to changes in the biodiversity science-policy landscape (establishment of a Biodiversity Observing Network - GEO BON, of an Intergovernmental science-policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services - IPBES, of the new Future Earth initiative; and release of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020). This article presents the vision and its core scientific challenges.