Periodontitis and Outer Retinal Thickness: a Cross-Sectional Analysis of the United Kingdom Biobank Cohort

Purpose

Periodontitis, a ubiquitous severe gum disease affecting the teeth and surrounding alveolar bone, can heighten systemic inflammation. We investigated the association between very severe periodontitis and early biomarkers of age-related macular degeneration (AMD), in individuals with no eye disease.

Design

Cross-sectional analysis of the prospective community-based cohort United Kingdom (UK) Biobank.

Participants

Sixty-seven thousand three hundred eleven UK residents aged 40 to 70 years recruited between 2006 and 2010 underwent retinal imaging.

Methods

Macular-centered OCT images acquired at the baseline visit were segmented for retinal sublayer thicknesses. Very severe periodontitis was ascertained through a touchscreen questionnaire. Linear mixed effects regression modeled the association between very severe periodontitis and retinal sublayer thicknesses, adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, alcohol consumption, smoking status, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, refractive error, and previous cataract surgery.

Main Outcome Measures

Photoreceptor layer (PRL) and retinal pigment epithelium-Bruch's membrane (RPE-BM) thicknesses.

Results

Among 36 897 participants included in the analysis, 1571 (4.3%) reported very severe periodontitis. Affected individuals were older, lived in areas of greater socioeconomic deprivation, and were more likely to be hypertensive, diabetic, and current smokers (all P < 0.001). On average, those with very severe periodontitis were hyperopic (0.05 ± 2.27 diopters) while those unaffected were myopic (-0.29 ± 2.40 diopters, P < 0.001). Following adjusted analysis, very severe periodontitis was associated with thinner PRL (-0.55 μm, 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.97 to -0.12; P = 0.022) but there was no difference in RPE-BM thickness (0.00 μm, 95% CI, -0.12 to 0.13; P = 0.97). The association between PRL thickness and very severe periodontitis was modified by age (P < 0.001). Stratifying individuals by age, thinner PRL was seen among those aged 60 to 69 years with disease (-1.19 μm, 95% CI, -1.85 to -0.53; P < 0.001) but not among those aged < 60 years.

Conclusions

Among those with no known eye disease, very severe periodontitis is statistically associated with a thinner PRL, consistent with incipient AMD. Optimizing oral hygiene may hold additional relevance for people at risk of degenerative retinal disease.

Financial Disclosures

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Neutrophil responses to RSV infection show differences between infant and adult neutrophils

INTRODUCTION

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes a severe respiratory condition, bronchiolitis, in infants but not in adults. Bronchiolitis is characterised by neutrophilic infiltration in the airways, but whether neutrophils enhance recovery from infection or contribute to its pathology remains unknown.

METHODS

We used a novel in-vitro model to compare term umbilical cord blood (infant) (n=17 donors) and adult neutrophils (n=15 donors) during migration across RSV-infected differentiated human nasal airway epithelial cells (AECs) in a basolateral to apical direction.

RESULTS

Greater numbers of infant neutrophils (mean (95% CI)) (336 684 (242 352 to 431 015)) migrated across RSV-infected AECs to the apical compartment (equivalent to the airway lumen) compared with adult neutrophils (56 586 (24 954 to 88 218)) (p<0.0001). Having reached the apical compartment of infected AECs, much greater numbers of infant neutrophils (140 787 (103 117 to 178 456)) became apoptotic compared with adult (5853 (444 to 11 261)) (p=0.002). Infant neutrophils displayed much greater expression of CD11b, CD64, neutrophil elastase (NE) and myeloperoxidase (MPO) than adult neutrophils at baseline and at all points of migration. However, as adult neutrophils migrated, expression of CD11b, CD64, NE and MPO became greater than at baseline.

DISCUSSION

The high proportion of infant neutrophils migrating across RSV-infected AECs correlates with the neutrophilic infiltrate seen in infants with severe RSV bronchiolitis, with large numbers undergoing apoptosis, which may represent a protective mechanism during infection. Compared with adult neutrophils, infant neutrophils already have high expression of surface markers before contact with AECs or migration, with less capacity to increase further in response to RSV infection or migration.

Age-specific nasal epithelial responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection

Children infected with SARS-CoV-2 rarely progress to respiratory failure. However, the risk of mortality in infected people over 85 years of age remains high. Here we investigate differences in the cellular landscape and function of paediatric (<12 years), adult (30-50 years) and older adult (>70 years) ex vivo cultured nasal epithelial cells in response to infection with SARS-CoV-2. We show that cell tropism of SARS-CoV-2, and expression of ACE2 and TMPRSS2 in nasal epithelial cell subtypes, differ between age groups. While ciliated cells are viral replication centres across all age groups, a distinct goblet inflammatory subtype emerges in infected paediatric cultures and shows high expression of interferon-stimulated genes and incomplete viral replication. In contrast, older adult cultures infected with SARS-CoV-2 show a proportional increase in basaloid-like cells, which facilitate viral spread and are associated with altered epithelial repair pathways. We confirm age-specific induction of these cell types by integrating data from in vivo COVID-19 studies and validate that our in vitro model recapitulates early epithelial responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Generational trends in the transition to womanhood in lowland rural Nepal: Changes in the meaning of early marriage

OBJECTIVE

In South Asia, studies show secular trends toward slightly later women's marriage and first reproduction. However, data on related biological and social events, such as menarche and age of coresidence with husband, are often missing from these analyses. We assessed generational trends in key life events marking the transition to womanhood in rural lowland Nepal.

METHODS

We used data on 110 co-resident mother-in-law (MIL) and daughter-in-law (DIL) dyads. We used paired t-tests and chi-squared tests to evaluate generational trends in women's education, and mean age at menarche, marriage, cohabitation with husband, and first reproduction of MIL and DIL dyads. We examined norms held by MILs and DILs on a daughter's life opportunities.

RESULTS

On average, MIL was 29 years older than DIL (60 years vs. 31 years). Both groups experienced menarche at average age 13.8 years. MIL was married at average 12.4 years, before menarche, and cohabitated with husbands at average 14.8 years. DIL was simultaneously married and cohabitated with husbands after menarche, at average 15 years. DIL was marginally more educated than MIL but had their first child on average 0.8 years earlier (95% CI -1.4, -0.1). MIL and DIL held similar norms on daughters' education and marriage.

CONCLUSION

While social norms remain similar, the meaning of "early marriage" and use of menarche in marriage decisions has changed in rural lowland Nepal. Compared to DIL, MIL who was married earlier transitioned to womanhood more gradually. However, DIL was still married young, and had an accelerated trajectory to childbearing.

Distribution-free hyperrectangular tolerance regions for setting multivariate reference regions in laboratory medicine

Reference regions are important in laboratory medicine to interpret the test results of patients, and usually given by tolerance regions. Tolerance regions ofp   ( ≥ 2 ) $$ p\;\left(\ge 2\right) $$ dimensions are highly desirable when the test results containsp $$ p $$ outcome measures. Nonparametric hyperrectangular tolerance regions are attractive in real problems due to their robustness with respect to the underlying distribution of the measurements and ease of intepretation, and methods to construct them have been recently provided by Young and Mathew [Stat Methods Med Res. 2020;29:3569-3585]. However, their validity is supported by a simulation study only. In this paper, nonparametric hyperrectangular tolerance regions are constructed by using Tukey's [Ann Math Stat. 1947;18:529-539; Ann Math Stat. 1948;19:30-39] elegant results of equivalence blocks. The validity of these new tolerance regions is proven mathematically in [Ann Math Stat. 1947;18:529-539; Ann Math Stat. 1948;19:30-39] under the only assumption that the underlying distribution of the measurements is continuous. The methodology is applied to analyze the kidney function problem considered in Young and Mathew [Stat Methods Med Res. 2020;29:3569-3585].

Rapid desensitization through immunoadsorption during cardiopulmonary bypass. A novel method to facilitate human leukocyte antigen incompatible heart transplantation

BACKGROUND

Anti-human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-antibody production represents a major barrier to heart transplantation, limiting recipient compatibility with potential donors and increasing the risk of complications with poor waiting-list outcomes. Currently there is no consensus to when desensitization should take place, and through what mechanism, meaning that sensitized patients must wait for a compatible donor for many months, if not years. We aimed to determine if intraoperative immunoadsorption could provide a potential desensitization methodology.

METHODS

Anti-HLA antibody-containing whole blood was added to a Cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) circuit set up to mimic a 20 kg patient undergoing heart transplantation. Plasma was separated and diverted to a standalone, secondary immunoadsorption system, with antibody-depleted plasma returned to the CPB circuit. Samples for anti-HLA antibody definition were taken at baseline, when combined with the CPB prime (on bypass), and then every 20 min for the duration of treatment (total 180 min).

RESULTS

A reduction in individual allele median fluorescence intensity (MFI) to below clinically relevant levels (<1000 MFI), and in the majority of cases below the lower positive detection limit (<500 MFI), even in alleles with a baseline MFI >4000 was demonstrated. Reduction occurred in all cases within 120 min, demonstrating efficacy in a time period usual for heart transplantation. Flowcytometric crossmatching of suitable pseudo-donor lymphocytes demonstrated a change from T cell and B cell positive channel shifts to negative, demonstrating a reduction in binding capacity.

CONCLUSIONS

Intraoperative immunoadsorption in an ex vivo setting demonstrates clinically relevant reductions in anti-HLA antibodies within the normal timeframe for heart transplantation. This method represents a potential desensitization technique that could enable sensitized children to accept a donor organ earlier, even in the presence of donor-specific anti-HLA antibodies.

Determinants of non-attendance at face-to-face and telemedicine ophthalmic consultations

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Evaluation of telemedicine care models has highlighted its potential for exacerbating healthcare inequalities. This study seeks to identify and characterise factors associated with non-attendance across face-to-face and telemedicine outpatient appointments.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study at a tertiary-level ophthalmic institution in the UK, between 1 January 2019 and 31 October 2021. Logistic regression modelled non-attendance against sociodemographic, clinical and operational exposure variables for all new patient registrations across five delivery modes: asynchronous, synchronous telephone, synchronous audiovisual and face to face prior to the pandemic and face to face during the pandemic.

RESULTS

A total of 85 924 patients (median age 55 years, 54.4% female) were newly registered. Non-attendance differed significantly by delivery mode: (9.0% face to face prepandemic, 10.5% face to face during the pandemic, 11.7% asynchronous and 7.8%, synchronous during pandemic). Male sex, greater levels of deprivation, a previously cancelled appointment and not self-reporting ethnicity were strongly associated with non-attendance across all delivery modes. Individuals identifying as black ethnicity had worse attendance in synchronous audiovisual clinics (adjusted OR 4.24, 95% CI 1.59 to 11.28) but not asynchronous. Those not self-reporting their ethnicity were from more deprived backgrounds, had worse broadband access and had significantly higher non-attendance across all modes (all p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Persistent non-attendance among underserved populations attending telemedicine appointments highlights the challenge digital transformation faces for reducing healthcare inequalities. Implementation of new programmes should be accompanied by investigation into the differential health outcomes of vulnerable populations.

Evaluating the Quantity and Quality of Health Economic Literature in Blinding Childhood Disorders: A Systematic Literature Review

BACKGROUND

Evidence on the socioeconomic burden associated with childhood visual impairment, severe visual impairment and blindness (VI/SVI/BL) is needed to inform economic evaluations of existing and emerging interventions aimed at protecting or improving vision. This study aimed to evaluate the quantity and quality of literature on resource use and/or costs associated with childhood VI/SVI/BL disorders.

METHODS

PubMed, Web of Science (Ovid), the National Health Service (NHS) Economic Evaluation Database and grey literature were searched in November 2020. The PubMed search was rerun in February 2022. Original articles reporting unique estimates of resource use or cost data on conditions resulting in bilateral VI/SVI/BL were eligible for data extraction. Quality assessment (QA) was undertaken using the Drummond checklist adapted for cost-of-illness (COI) studies.

RESULTS

We identified 31 eligible articles, 27 from the peer-reviewed literature and four from the grey literature. Two reported on resource use, and 29 reported on costs. Cerebral visual impairment and optic nerve disorders were not examined in any included studies, whereas retinopathy of prematurity was the most frequently examined condition. The quality of studies varied, with economic evaluations having higher mean QA scores (82%) compared to COI studies (77%). Deficiencies in reporting were seen, particularly in the clinical definitions of conditions in economic evaluations and a lack of discounting and sensitivity analyses in COI studies.

CONCLUSIONS

There is sparse literature on resource use or costs associated with childhood visual impairment disorders. The first step in addressing this important evidence gap is to ensure core visual impairment outcomes are measured in future randomised control trials of interventions as well as cohort studies and are reported as a discrete health outcome.

Salivary IgA and vimentin differentiate in vitro SARS-CoV-2 infection: A study of 290 convalescent COVID-19 patients

SARS-CoV-2 initially infects cells in the nasopharynx and oral cavity. The immune system at these mucosal sites plays a crucial role in minimizing viral transmission and infection. To develop new strategies for preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection, this study aimed to identify proteins that protect against viral infection in saliva. We collected 551 saliva samples from 290 healthcare workers who had tested positive for COVID-19, before vaccination, between June and December 2020. The samples were categorized based on their ability to block or enhance infection using in vitro assays. Mass spectrometry and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay experiments were used to identify and measure the abundance of proteins that specifically bind to SARS-CoV-2 antigens. Immunoglobulin (Ig)A specific to SARS-CoV-2 antigens was detectable in over 83% of the convalescent saliva samples. We found that concentrations of anti-receptor-binding domain IgA >500 pg/µg total protein in saliva correlate with reduced viral infectivity in vitro. However, there is a dissociation between the salivary IgA response to SARS-CoV-2, and systemic IgG titers in convalescent COVID-19 patients. Then, using an innovative technique known as spike-baited mass spectrometry, we identified novel spike-binding proteins in saliva, most notably vimentin, which correlated with increased viral infectivity in vitro and could serve as a therapeutic target against COVID-19.

Seasonality of presentation and birth in catatonia

BACKGROUND

Catatonia is a neuropsychiatric syndrome associated with both psychiatric disorders and medical conditions. Understanding of the pathophysiology of catatonia remains limited, and the role of the environment is unclear. Although seasonal variations have been shown for many of the disorders underlying catatonia, the seasonality of this syndrome has not yet been adequately explored.

METHODS

Clinical records were screened to identify a cohort of patients suffering from catatonia and a control group of psychiatric inpatients, from 2007 to 2016 in South London. In a cohort study, the seasonality of presentation was explored fitting regression models with harmonic terms, while the effect of season of birth on subsequent development of catatonia was analyzed using regression models for count data. In a case-control study, the association between month of birth and catatonia was studied fitting logistic regression models.

RESULTS

In total, 955 patients suffering from catatonia and 23,409 controls were included. The number of catatonic episodes increased during winter, with a peak in February. Similarly, an increasing number of cases was observed during summer, with a second peak in August. However, no evidence for an association between month of birth and catatonia was found.

CONCLUSIONS

The presentation of catatonia showed seasonal variation in accordance with patterns described for many of the disorders underlying catatonia, such as mood disorders and infections. We found no evidence for an association between season of birth and risk of developing catatonia. This may imply that recent triggers may underpin catatonia, rather than distal events.

Global birth prevalence of Robin sequence in live-born infants: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Robin sequence (RS), a congenital disorder of jaw maldevelopment and glossoptosis, poses a substantial healthcare burden and has long-term health implications if airway obstruction is suboptimally treated. This study describes the global birth prevalence of RS and investigates whether prevalence estimates differ by geographical location, ethnicity or study data source (registry versus non-registry data). The protocol was prospectively registered with PROSPERO.Databases were searched using keywords and subject terms for "Robin sequence", "epidemiology", "incidence" and "birth prevalence". Meta-analysis was performed fitting random effects models with arcsine transformation.From 34 eligible studies (n=2722 RS cases), pooled birth prevalence was 9.5 per 100 000 live births (95% CI 7.1-12.1) with statistical heterogeneity. One third of studies provided a case definition for RS and numerous definitions were used. A total of 22 countries were represented, predominantly from European populations (53% of studies). There was a trend towards higher birth prevalence in European populations and lower prevalence from registry-based studies. Only two studies reported ethnicity.This study indicates that RS occurs globally. To investigate geographical differences in prevalence, additional studies from non-European populations and reporting of ethnicity are needed. Heterogeneity of estimates may be due to variable diagnostic criteria and ascertainment methods. Recently published consensus diagnostic criteria may reduce heterogeneity among future studies.

Development and Pilot Implementation of Neotree, a Digital Quality Improvement Tool Designed to Improve Newborn Care and Survival in 3 Hospitals in Malawi and Zimbabwe: Cost Analysis Study

Background

Two-thirds of the 2.4 million newborn deaths that occurred in 2020 within the first 28 days of life might have been avoided by implementing existing low-cost evidence-based interventions for all sick and small newborns. An open-source digital quality improvement tool (Neotree) combining data capture with education and clinical decision support is a promising solution for this implementation gap.

Objective

We present results from a cost analysis of a pilot implementation of Neotree in 3 hospitals in Malawi and Zimbabwe.

Methods

We combined activity-based costing and expenditure approaches to estimate the development and implementation cost of a Neotree pilot in 1 hospital in Malawi, Kamuzu Central Hospital (KCH), and 2 hospitals in Zimbabwe, Sally Mugabe Central Hospital (SMCH) and Chinhoyi Provincial Hospital (CPH). We estimated the costs from a provider perspective over 12 months. Data were collected through expenditure reports, monthly staff time-use surveys, and project staff interviews. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted to assess the impact of uncertainties on the results or estimate potential costs at scale. A pilot time-motion survey was conducted at KCH and a comparable hospital where Neotree was not implemented.

Results

Total cost of pilot implementation of Neotree at KCH, SMCH, and CPH was US $37,748, US $52,331, and US $41,764, respectively. Average monthly cost per admitted child was US $15, US $15, and US $58, respectively. Staff costs were the main cost component (average 73% of total costs, ranging from 63% to 79%). The results from the sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainty around the number of admissions had a significant impact on the costs in all hospitals. In Malawi, replacing monthly web hosting with a server also had a significant impact on the costs. Under routine (nonresearch) conditions and at scale, total costs are estimated to fall substantially, up to 76%, reducing cost per admitted child to as low as US $5 in KCH, US $4 in SMCH, and US $14 in CPH. Median time to admit a baby was 27 (IQR 20-40) minutes using Neotree (n=250) compared to 26 (IQR 21-30) minutes using paper-based systems (n=34), and the median time to discharge a baby was 9 (IQR 7-13) minutes for Neotree (n=246) compared to 3 (IQR 2-4) minutes for paper-based systems (n=50).

Conclusions

Neotree is a time- and cost-efficient tool, comparable with the results from limited similar mHealth decision-support tools in low- and middle-income countries. Implementation costs of Neotree varied substantially between the hospitals, mainly due to hospital size. The implementation costs could be substantially reduced at scale due to economies of scale because of integration to the health systems and reductions in cost items such as staff and overhead. More studies assessing the impact and cost-effectiveness of large-scale mHealth decision-support tools are needed.

Do adolescents with impaired vision have different intentions and ambitions for their education, career and social outcomes compared to their peers? Findings from the Millennium Cohort Study

BACKGROUND/AIMS

To investigate if impaired vision adversely impacts the intentions/ambitions of adolescents concerning their future education, careers and social outcomes.

METHODS

Population-based birth cohort study in the UK comprising 9273 participants from the Millennium Cohort Study who were followed up to age 17 years. Children were classified as having normal vision or unilateral or bilateral impaired vision caused by significant eye conditions based on detailed parental-structured questionnaire data on sight problems and treatment coded by clinicians. Ten domains covering education, career and social outcomes by age 30 were investigated.

RESULTS

Adjusted regression models showed few differences by vision status. Bilateral impaired vision was associated with increased odds of intending to remain in full-time education after statutory school age (adjusted OR (aOR) 2.00, 95% CI 1.08 to 3.68) and of home ownership at age 30 (aOR 1.83, 95% CI 1.01 to 3.32). Impaired vision was not associated with intending to attend university. A significantly higher proportion of parents of children with bilateral or unilateral impaired vision thought that their child would not get the exam grades required to go to university than parents of those with normal vision (29% or 26% vs 16%, p=0.026).

CONCLUSION

Adolescents with impaired vision have broadly the same intentions/ambitions regarding future education, careers and social outcomes as their peers with normal vision. The known significant gaps in attainment in these domains among young adults with vision impairment are therefore likely to be due to barriers that they face in achieving their ambitions. Improved implementation of existing interventions is necessary to ensure equality of opportunities.

Trends in the long-term impact of childhood visual impairment on health and social outcomes in the UK: a cross-cohort study across three decades of disability-related legislation and policy implementation

BACKGROUND

Childhood vision impairment (VI) can adversely impact health and social outcomes and limit life chances. We investigated whether its adverse impacts into adult life changed during a period in which legislation, policy and services to address inequalities relating to disability were implemented.

METHODS

Cross-cohort study comprising 14 247 participants from the 1946, 1958 and 1970 British birth cohorts (BC). Participants dichotomized as VI at age 15/16 (distance visual acuity was 6/12 or worse in the better-seeing eye) or normally sighted. Associations of childhood VI with health, well-being, socioeconomic and social participation outcomes in mid-adult life were investigated using regression models adjusted for participants' early life socioeconomic markers and sex. Change in adjusted odds ratios of >10% in the same direction in successive cohorts, or a > 20% difference between 1970BC and one older cohort were considered meaningful.

RESULTS

Trends over time in impacts of childhood onset VI into mid-adult life were complex. This included worsening of odds of poorer physical health (odds ratio 1.47; 95% confidence interval 1.02-2.14), living in unsatisfactory (1.54; 1.03-2.29) or overcrowded (2.34; 1.26-4.06) households, being unemployed (2.19; 1.19-3.97) and not gaining additional educational qualifications during mid-adult life (1.61; 1.08-2.47). By contrast the odds of not participating in some social activities (e.g. seeing friends) improved over time. Associations with other outcomes were unchanged.

CONCLUSIONS

Many adverse impacts of childhood VI do not appear ameliorated over time by legislation, policies and provision that would have been expected to reduce inequalities. Moreover, some were increased. Childhood VI continues to cast a life-long shadow.

The bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) international database: aims, scope, and call for data

BACKGROUND

Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is a technique widely used for estimating body composition and health-related parameters. The technology is relatively simple, quick, and non-invasive, and is currently used globally in diverse settings, including private clinicians' offices, sports and health clubs, and hospitals, and across a spectrum of age, body weight, and disease states. BIA parameters can be used to estimate body composition (fat, fat-free mass, total-body water and its compartments). Moreover, raw measurements including resistance, reactance, phase angle, and impedance vector length can also be used to track health-related markers, including hydration and malnutrition, and disease-prognostic, athletic and general health status. Body composition shows profound variability in association with age, sex, race and ethnicity, geographic ancestry, lifestyle, and health status. To advance understanding of this variability, we propose to develop a large and diverse multi-country dataset of BIA raw measures and derived body components. The aim of this paper is to describe the 'BIA International Database' project and encourage researchers to join the consortium.

METHODS

The Exercise and Health Laboratory of the Faculty of Human Kinetics, University of Lisbon has agreed to host the database using an online portal. At present, the database contains 277,922 measures from individuals ranging from 11 months to 102 years, along with additional data on these participants.

CONCLUSION

The BIA International Database represents a key resource for research on body composition.

Individual, family, and environmental determinants of vision-related quality of life of children and young people with visual impairment

Childhood visual impairment can have a significant impact on an individual's development. To improve clinical care and develop appropriate psychosocial interventions of these patients, it is necessary to understand the contributing and modifiable factors that both identify individuals in greater need and could be targeted in interventions. Here we investigate the broader individual, family, and environmental factors associated with vision-related quality of life (VQoL) of children and young people with visual impairment (CYP-VI). Data for this cross-sectional study were collected from September 2014 to May 2017 to develop and validate two vision-specific patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) for CYP-VI. Patients were recruited from 22 hospitals in the United Kingdom and were aged 7-18 years with visual impairment as per WHO criteria. Participants self-completed the two PROMs, VQoL and Functional Vision Questionnaires. Clinical characteristics were extracted from medical records. Their carers provided information on family sociodemographic backgrounds. Associations between the VQoL scores and other factors were examined using Spearman's correlation, Kruskal-Wallis, Wilcoxon rank-sum tests, and quantile regression models. The sample consisted of 152 CYP-VI (67 females). Better VQoL was significantly associated with better functional vision overall (rSpearman = -0.52), parent-reported absence of additional chronic conditions (dCohen = 0.46), attending mainstream (versus other) school (dCohen = 0.44), higher socio-economic status (rSpearman = 0.17) and higher parental education level (rSpearman = 0.20). No other investigated factors were significantly associated with VQoL. The final quantile regression model included functional vision scores and the presence of additional health condition. Variation in self-reported VQoL in CYP-VI can be partly accounted for by factors relating to the clinical status of the affected child and, more importantly, by non-health-related factors. This needs to be considered in clinical practice when assessing vision-specific outcomes and providing support to CYP-VI, as well as in the development of future interventions.

Retinal Optical Coherence Tomography Features Associated With Incident and Prevalent Parkinson Disease

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Cadaveric studies have shown disease-related neurodegeneration and other morphological abnormalities in the retina of individuals with Parkinson disease (PD); however, it remains unclear whether this can be reliably detected with in vivo imaging. We investigated inner retinal anatomy, measured using optical coherence tomography (OCT), in prevalent PD and subsequently assessed the association of these markers with the development of PD using a prospective research cohort.

METHODS

This cross-sectional analysis used data from 2 studies. For the detection of retinal markers in prevalent PD, we used data from AlzEye, a retrospective cohort of 154,830 patients aged 40 years and older attending secondary care ophthalmic hospitals in London, United Kingdom, between 2008 and 2018. For the evaluation of retinal markers in incident PD, we used data from UK Biobank, a prospective population-based cohort where 67,311 volunteers aged 40-69 years were recruited between 2006 and 2010 and underwent retinal imaging. Macular retinal nerve fiber layer (mRNFL), ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer (GCIPL), and inner nuclear layer (INL) thicknesses were extracted from fovea-centered OCT. Linear mixed-effects models were fitted to examine the association between prevalent PD and retinal thicknesses. Hazard ratios for the association between time to PD diagnosis and retinal thicknesses were estimated using frailty models.

RESULTS

Within the AlzEye cohort, there were 700 individuals with prevalent PD and 105,770 controls (mean age 65.5 ± 13.5 years, 51.7% female). Individuals with prevalent PD had thinner GCIPL (-2.12 μm, 95% CI -3.17 to -1.07, p = 8.2 × 10-5) and INL (-0.99 μm, 95% CI -1.52 to -0.47, p = 2.1 × 10-4). The UK Biobank included 50,405 participants (mean age 56.1 ± 8.2 years, 54.7% female), of whom 53 developed PD at a mean of 2,653 ± 851 days. Thinner GCIPL (hazard ratio [HR] 0.62 per SD increase, 95% CI 0.46-0.84, p = 0.002) and thinner INL (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.51-0.96, p = 0.026) were also associated with incident PD.

DISCUSSION

Individuals with PD have reduced thickness of the INL and GCIPL of the retina. Involvement of these layers several years before clinical presentation highlight a potential role for retinal imaging for at-risk stratification of PD.

Epidemiology of Robin sequence in the UK and Ireland: an active surveillance study

BACKGROUND

Birth prevalence of Robin sequence (RS) is commonly reported as 1 case per 8000-14 000 live births. These estimates are based on single-source case ascertainment and may miss infants who did not require hospital admission or those without overt upper airway obstruction at birth.

OBJECTIVES

To identify the true birth prevalence of RS with cleft palate in the UK and Ireland from a population-based birth cohort with high case ascertainment.

METHODS

Active surveillance of RS with cleft palate was carried out in the UK/Ireland using dual sources of case ascertainment: British Paediatric Surveillance Unit (BPSU) reporting card and nationally commissioned cleft services. Clinical data were collected from notifying clinicians at two time points.

RESULTS

173 live-born infants met the surveillance case definition, giving a birth prevalence of 1 case per 5250 live births (19.1 per 100 000 (95% CI 16.2 to 21.9)), and 1:2690 in Scotland. 47% had non-isolated RS, with Stickler syndrome the most common genetic diagnosis (12% RS cases). Birth prevalence derived from the combined data sources was significantly higher than from BPSU surveillance alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Birth prevalence of RS in the UK/Ireland derived from active surveillance is higher than reported by epidemiological studies from several other countries, and from UK-based anomaly registries, but consistent with published retrospective data from Scotland. Dual case ascertainment sources enabled identification of cases with mild or late-onset airway obstruction that were managed without hospital admission. Studies of aetiology and equivalent well-designed epidemiological studies from other populations are needed to investigate the identified geographical variability in birth prevalence.

Performance on the iSTEP and 10 m-ISWT in boys with haemophilia

INTRODUCTION

Boys with haemophilia (BwH) have improved health outcomes. Measures of physical function in haemophilia are not challenging or sensitive enough to reflect physical limitations or guide rehabilitation. To identify meaningful tests, we aimed to: evaluate the performance of BwH on two physical performance measures: iSTEP and 10 m-ISWT; identify factors which predict performance and compare BwH to their unaffected peers.

METHODS

BwH completed both iSTEP and 10 m-ISWT. Disease severity, age, BMI, HJHS, lower limb muscle torque, time spent in moderate to vigorous physical activity, sedentary time, were included as factors to predict performance. Results were compared to unaffected peers.

RESULTS

43 boys median age 10 (10 mild/moderate, 26 severe, 7 inhibitors) were recruited. BwH were less likely to complete the iSTEP and performed less well on the 10 m-ISWT than age matched peers. Ceiling effects were apparent for iSTEP, but not the 10 m-ISWT test. Age was the only significant predictor for performance in the iSTEP, with older boys being more likely to achieve a higher level or complete the test. Greater age, lower BMI, milder disease severity and more time spent in MVPA all predicted better performance on the 10 m-ISWT, with BMI and habitual physical activity a potential rehabilitation focus for underperforming individuals. HJHS and muscle strength did not predict performance on either test.

CONCLUSION

Despite the space need to conduct the 10 m-ISWT, it appears to be a superior performance measure than the iSTEP in BwH and provides clinically meaningful information, which can be interpreted using age-specific normative reference equations.

Diagnosing early-onset neonatal sepsis in low-resource settings: development of a multivariable prediction model

OBJECTIVE

To develop a clinical prediction model to diagnose neonatal sepsis in low-resource settings.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of data collected by the Neotree digital health system from 1 February 2019 to 31 March 2020. We used multivariable logistic regression with candidate predictors identified from expert opinion and literature review. Missing data were imputed using multivariate imputation and model performance was evaluated in the derivation cohort.

SETTING

A tertiary neonatal unit at Sally Mugabe Central Hospital, Zimbabwe.

PATIENTS

We included 2628 neonates aged <72 hours, gestation ≥32+0 weeks and birth weight ≥1500 g.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants received standard care as no specific interventions were dictated by the study protocol.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Clinical early-onset neonatal sepsis (within the first 72 hours of life), defined by the treating consultant neonatologist.

RESULTS

Clinical early-onset sepsis was diagnosed in 297 neonates (11%). The optimal model included eight predictors: maternal fever, offensive liquor, prolonged rupture of membranes, neonatal temperature, respiratory rate, activity, chest retractions and grunting. Receiver operating characteristic analysis gave an area under the curve of 0.74 (95% CI 0.70-0.77). For a sensitivity of 95% (92%-97%), corresponding specificity was 11% (10%-13%), positive predictive value 12% (11%-13%), negative predictive value 95% (92%-97%), positive likelihood ratio 1.1 (95% CI 1.0-1.1) and negative likelihood ratio 0.4 (95% CI 0.3-0.6).

CONCLUSIONS

Our clinical prediction model achieved high sensitivity with low specificity, suggesting it may be suited to excluding early-onset sepsis. Future work will validate and update this model before considering implementation within the Neotree.

Model Based Estimation of Posaconazole Tablet and Suspension Bioavailability in Hospitalized Children Using Real-World Therapeutic Drug Monitoring Data in Patients Receiving Intravenous and Oral Dosing

Invasive fungal infections are a major cause of morbidity and mortality for immunocompromised patients. Posaconazole is approved for treatment and prophylaxis of invasive fungal infection in adult patients, with intravenous, oral suspension, and gastroresistant/delayed-released tablet formulations available. In Europe, until very recently, posaconazole was used off-label in children, although a new delayed-release suspension approved for pediatric use is expected to become available soon. A population pharmacokinetic model was developed which uses posaconazole therapeutic drug monitoring data following intravenous and oral dosing in hospitalized children, thus enabling estimation of pediatric suspension and tablet oral bioavailability. In total, 297 therapeutic drug monitoring plasma levels from 104 children were included in this analysis. The final model was a one-compartment model with first-order absorption and nonlinear elimination. Allometric scaling on clearance and volume of distribution was included a priori. Tablet bioavailability was estimated to be 66%. Suspension bioavailability was estimated to decrease with increasing doses, ranging from 3.8% to 32.2% in this study population. Additionally, concomitant use of proton pump-inhibitors was detected as a significant covariate, reducing suspension bioavailability by 41.0%. This is the first population pharmacokinetic study to model posaconazole data from hospitalized children following intravenous, tablet, and suspension dosing simultaneously. The incorporation of saturable posaconazole clearance into the model has been key to the credible joint estimation of tablet and suspension bioavailability. To aid rational posaconazole dosing in children, this model was used alongside published pharmacodynamic targets to predict the probability of target attainment using typical pediatric dosing regimen.

Maternal mental health and economic autonomy in lowland rural Nepal: Do parents-in-law provide constraint or support?

Background and objectives

In patrilocal societies, married women typically co-reside with their parents-in-law, who may act in their son's reproductive interests. These relationships may shape maternal mental health and autonomy. Few studies have examined these dynamics from an evolutionary perspective. Theoretically, marital kin may increase their fitness by increasing maternal investment or by reducing paternity uncertainty. We explored how co-residence with parents-in-law and husband is associated with maternal outcomes to evaluate whether marital kin provide support or constraint.

Methodology

We analysed data from 444 households in rural lowland Nepal. Maternal mental health was assessed by General Health Questionnaire. Logistic regression models investigated whether, relative to mothers living with both husband and parents-in-law, those co-resident with other combinations of relatives had poorer mental health and lower household economic autonomy (decision-making, bargaining power), adjusting for socio-economic confounders.

Results

Co-residence with husband only, or neither husband nor parents-in-law, was associated with higher odds of mothers reporting feeling worthless and losing sleep but also earning income and making household expenditure decisions. Husband co-residence was associated with overall maternal distress but also with less unpaid care work and greater decision-making responsibility. There were no differences in maternal outcomes for mothers living with parents-in-law only, relative to those living with both husbands and parents-in-law.

Conclusions and implications

Co-residence of parents-in-law and husbands was associated with contrasting patterns of maternal mental health and economic autonomy. We suggest that different marital kin place different economic demands on mothers, while restricting their autonomy in different ways as forms of 'mate-guarding'.

Neonatal mortality in NHS maternity units by timing and mode of birth: a retrospective linked cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To compare neonatal mortality in English hospitals by time of day and day of the week according to care pathway.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort linking birth registration, birth notification and hospital episode data.

SETTING

National Health Service (NHS) hospitals in England.

PARTICIPANTS

6 054 536 liveborn singleton births from 2005 to 2014 in NHS maternity units in England.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Neonatal mortality.

RESULTS

After adjustment for confounders, there was no significant difference in the odds of neonatal mortality attributed to asphyxia, anoxia or trauma outside of working hours compared with working hours for spontaneous births or instrumental births. Stratification of emergency caesareans by onset of labour showed no difference in mortality by birth timing for emergency caesareans with spontaneous or induced onset of labour. Higher odds of neonatal mortality attributed to asphyxia, anoxia or trauma out of hours for emergency caesareans without labour translated to a small absolute difference in mortality risk.

CONCLUSIONS

The apparent 'weekend effect' may result from deaths among the relatively small numbers of babies who were coded as born by emergency caesarean section without labour outside normal working hours. Further research should investigate the potential contribution of care-seeking and community-based factors as well as the adequacy of staffing for managing these relatively unusual emergencies.

Association Between Retinal Features From Multimodal Imaging and Schizophrenia

Importance

The potential association of schizophrenia with distinct retinal changes is of clinical interest but has been challenging to investigate because of a lack of sufficiently large and detailed cohorts.

Objective

To investigate the association between retinal biomarkers from multimodal imaging (oculomics) and schizophrenia in a large real-world population.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional analysis used data from a retrospective cohort of 154 830 patients 40 years and older from the AlzEye study, which linked ophthalmic data with hospital admission data across England. Patients attended Moorfields Eye Hospital, a secondary care ophthalmic hospital with a principal central site, 4 district hubs, and 5 satellite clinics in and around London, United Kingdom, and had retinal imaging during the study period (January 2008 and April 2018). Data were analyzed from January 2022 to July 2022.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Retinovascular and optic nerve indices were computed from color fundus photography. Macular retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) and ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer (mGC-IPL) thicknesses were extracted from optical coherence tomography. Linear mixed-effects models were used to examine the association between schizophrenia and retinal biomarkers.

Results

A total of 485 individuals (747 eyes) with schizophrenia (mean [SD] age, 64.9 years [12.2]; 258 [53.2%] female) and 100 931 individuals (165 400 eyes) without schizophrenia (mean age, 65.9 years [13.7]; 53 253 [52.8%] female) were included after images underwent quality control and potentially confounding conditions were excluded. Individuals with schizophrenia were more likely to have hypertension (407 [83.9%] vs 49 971 [48.0%]) and diabetes (364 [75.1%] vs 28 762 [27.6%]). The schizophrenia group had thinner mGC-IPL (-4.05 μm, 95% CI, -5.40 to -2.69; P = 5.4 × 10-9), which persisted when investigating only patients without diabetes (-3.99 μm; 95% CI, -6.67 to -1.30; P = .004) or just those 55 years and younger (-2.90 μm; 95% CI, -5.55 to -0.24; P = .03). On adjusted analysis, retinal fractal dimension among vascular variables was reduced in individuals with schizophrenia (-0.14 units; 95% CI, -0.22 to -0.05; P = .001), although this was not present when excluding patients with diabetes.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, patients with schizophrenia had measurable differences in neural and vascular integrity of the retina. Differences in retinal vasculature were mostly secondary to the higher prevalence of diabetes and hypertension in patients with schizophrenia. The role of retinal features as adjunct outcomes in patients with schizophrenia warrants further investigation.

Gestational diabetes in women living with HIV in the UK and Ireland: insights from population-based surveillance data

INTRODUCTION

The prevalence of gestational diabetes (GD) is increasing globally. While universal risk factors for GD are reasonably well understood, questions remain regarding risks for women living with HIV (WLWH). We aimed to describe GD prevalence, evaluate associated maternal risk factors and assess specific birth outcomes in WLWH in the UK and Ireland.

METHODS

We analysed all pregnancies (≥24 weeks' gestation) in women diagnosed with HIV before delivery, reported to the UK-based Integrated Screening Outcomes Surveillance Service between 2010 and 2020. Every report of GD was considered as a case. A multivariable logistic regression model, adjusted for women with more than one pregnancy fitted with generalized estimating equations (GEE) assessed the effect of independent risk factors.

RESULTS

There were 10,553 pregnancies in 7916 women, of which 460 (4.72%) pregnancies had reported GD. Overall, the median maternal age was 33 years (Q1:29-Q3:37), and 73% of pregnancies were in Black African women. WLWH with GD (WLWH-GD) were older (61% vs. 41% aged ≥35 years, p < 0.001) and more likely to be on treatment at conception (74% vs. 64%, p < 0.001) than women without GD. WLWH-GD were more likely to have a stillbirth (odds ratio [OR]: 5.38, 95% CI: 2.14-13.5), preterm delivery (OR: 2.54, 95% CI: 1.95-3.32) and fetal macrosomia (OR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.04-1.24). Independent risk factors for GD included estimated year of delivery (GEE-adjusted odds ratio [GEE-aOR]: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.10-1.18), advanced maternal age (≥35 years) (GEE-aOR: 2.87, 95% CI: 1.54-5.34), Asian (GEE-aOR: 2.63, 95% CI: 1.40-4.63) and Black African (GEE-aOR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.13-2.12) ethnicity. Timing and type of antiretroviral therapy showed no evidence of a relationship with GD in multivariable analyses; however, women with a CD4 count ≤350 cells/μl were 27% less likely to have GD than women with CD4 counts >350 cells/μl (GEE-aOR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.50-0.96).

CONCLUSIONS

GD prevalence increased over time among WLWH but was not significantly different from the general population. Maternal age, ethnicity and CD4 count were risk factors based on available data. Stillbirth and preterm delivery were more common in WLWH-GD than other WLWH over the study period. Further studies are required to build upon these results.

Impaired vision and physical activity in childhood and adolescence: findings from the Millennium Cohort Study

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Investigate if impaired vision is associated with reduced levels and differences in types of physical activity (PA) to identify barriers or enablers to achieving healthy PA levels.

METHODS

Data from the Millennium Cohort Study of children born in the UK in 2000-2001 and followed-up to age 14 years (n=11 571). Using parental report on eye conditions coded by clinicians, children were categorised as having no, unilateral or bilateral impaired vision. Outcomes included objective accelerometer-derived time spent in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), and 16 PA types reported by parents, teachers and/or participants, covering physical education (PE), organised sports, self-organised sports and hobbies.

RESULTS

Overall, 50% of 7-year-olds and subsequently 41% as 14-year-olds achieved the internationally recommended level of ≥60 MVPA min/day, irrespective of vision status, and mainly attributable to PE and organised sports. Bilateral impaired vision (vs none) was associated with parent-reported difficulties with PE (adjusted OR, 4.67; 95% CI, 2.31 to 9.41), self-rated poor ability in PE (3.21; 1.44 to 7.15) and not enjoy indoor PA (0.48; 0.26 to 0.88). Unilateral impaired vision was associated with both parent-rated difficulties (1.80; 1.26 to 2.59) and teachers' perception of low ability in PE (2.27; 1.57 to 3.28), and reduced odds of high participation in organised sports (0.77; 0.59 to 0.99). Age-related trajectories showed suboptimal PA in childhood tracked into adolescence, with no difference by vision status.

CONCLUSION

Population-wide programmes to increase PA levels in children should pay special attention to those with impaired vision and include early interventions to encourage participation and confidence in PE and organised sports, starting in primary school and maintained afterwards.

Trans-epithelial migration is essential for neutrophil activation during RSV infection

The recruitment of neutrophils to the infected airway occurs early following respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection, and high numbers of activated neutrophils in the airway and blood are associated with the development of severe disease. The aim of this study was to investigate whether trans-epithelial migration is sufficient and necessary for neutrophil activation during RSV infection. Here, we used flow cytometry and novel live-cell fluorescent microscopy to track neutrophil movement during trans-epithelial migration and measure the expression of key activation markers in a human model of RSV infection. We found that when migration occurred, neutrophil expression of CD11b, CD62L, CD64, NE, and MPO increased. However, the same increase did not occur on basolateral neutrophils when neutrophils were prevented from migrating, suggesting that activated neutrophils reverse migrate from the airway to the bloodstream side, as has been suggested by clinical observations. We then combined our findings with the temporal and spatial profiling and suggest 3 initial phases of neutrophil recruitment and behavior in the airways during RSV infection; (1) initial chemotaxis; (2) neutrophil activation and reverse migration; and (3) amplified chemotaxis and clustering, all of which occur within 20 min. This work and the novel outputs could be used to develop therapeutics and provide new insight into how neutrophil activation and a dysregulated neutrophil response to RSV mediates disease severity.

Pattern visual evoked potentials show an inferior-superior topographic shift through maturation in childhood

The pattern-reversal visual evoked potential (prVEP) is an established routine clinical test. Its objectivity is particularly valuable for assessing visual pathway function in children. International standards specify at a minimum that an active electrode is placed on the occiput at Oz, but we find an additional inferior electrode at the inion (Iz) provides larger and more sensitive prVEPs in young persons. This study assesses the significance and age-dependence of these observations. PrVEPs were recorded from 1487 patients considered ophthalmologically normal aged <20 years old, to a range of check widths including International Society for Clinical Electrophysiology of Vision (ISCEV) standard large (50') and small (12.5') check widths. P100 peak-time and amplitude from both electrode sites were analysed. A subset of 256 children were studied longitudinally by fitting logistic regression models including a random effect on subjects. PrVEPs were largest over the Iz electrode for the majority of infants and children. This transitioned with age to become equal or smaller at Oz as a function of check width. For ISCEV standard large and small check widths, transition periods were ∼8 and ∼12 years of age, respectively. We estimated abnormal result classifications of 3.7% with use of an Oz electrode alone, which decreases to 0.0-0.5% when adding or using an Iz electrode. The inferior dominance of prVEP topography in children may be explained by age-related anatomical changes altering the cortical dipole, combined with physiological maturation of the neural generators of the prVEP. We recommend the Iz electrode is used routinely in recording of prVEPs in children. KEY POINTS: Pattern visual evoked potentials (PVEPs) are an established clinical test which provide objective assessment of visual pathway function. These are particularly valuable in providing objective information of vision in children. International standards specify the active recording electrode should be placed at the mid-occiput (Oz), but we find that pattern-reversal visual evoked potential amplitudes are larger for a lower placed electrode (Iz) in young persons. This was assessed in 1487 patients who had simultaneous PVEP recording at both electrode positions, and it was found that the majority of PVEPs in children were larger over the Iz electrode. The developmental differences in PVEP distribution transitioned to be equal between Iz and Oz with increasing age as a function of check width, at ∼8 and ∼12 years old for large and small check widths, respectively. These differences will improve diagnostic accuracy of paediatric PVEPs. We hypothesise these changes reflect developmental anatomical and neurophysiological changes altering the PVEP dipole.

Development and implementation experience of a learning healthcare system for facility based newborn care in low resource settings: The Neotree

Introduction

Improving peri- and postnatal facility-based care in low-resource settings (LRS) could save over 6000 babies' lives per day. Most of the annual 2.4 million neonatal deaths and 2 million stillbirths occur in healthcare facilities in LRS and are preventable through the implementation of cost-effective, simple, evidence-based interventions. However, their implementation is challenging in healthcare systems where one in four babies admitted to neonatal units die. In high-resource settings healthcare systems strengthening is increasingly delivered via learning healthcare systems to optimise care quality, but this approach is rare in LRS.

Methods

Since 2014 we have worked in Bangladesh, Malawi, Zimbabwe, and the UK to co-develop and pilot the Neotree system: an android application with accompanying data visualisation, linkage, and export. Its low-cost hardware and state-of-the-art software are used to support healthcare professionals to improve postnatal care at the bedside and to provide insights into population health trends. Here we summarise the formative conceptualisation, development, and preliminary implementation experience of the Neotree.

Results

Data thus far from ~18 000 babies, 400 healthcare professionals in four hospitals (two in Zimbabwe, two in Malawi) show high acceptability, feasibility, usability, and improvements in healthcare professionals' ability to deliver newborn care. The data also highlight gaps in knowledge in newborn care and quality improvement. Implementation has been resilient and informative during external crises, for example, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We have demonstrated evidence of improvements in clinical care and use of data for Quality Improvement (QI) projects.

Conclusion

Human-centred digital development of a QI system for newborn care has demonstrated the potential of a sustainable learning healthcare system to improve newborn care and outcomes in LRS. Pilot implementation evaluation is ongoing in three of the four aforementioned hospitals (two in Zimbabwe and one in Malawi) and a larger scale clinical cost effectiveness trial is planned.

Educational attainment and trajectories at key stages of schooling for children with amblyopia compared to those without eye conditions: Findings from the Millennium Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Amblyopia is a neurodevelopmental condition resulting in reduced vision for which whole population child vision screening is undertaken. Cross-sectional studies have established an association between amblyopia and lower academic self-concept, slower reading speed. No difference has been found in educational performance in adolescence whilst there are mixed associations with educational attainment in adults. Educational trajectories and intentions have not been studied previously. We analyse if those treated for amblyopia have different educational performance and trajectories for core subjects during statutory schooling, or subsequent higher education (university) intentions than their peers without eye conditions.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Data from the Millennium Cohort Study of children born in the United Kingdom in 2000-01 and followed-up to age 17 years (n = 9989). Using a validated approach drawing on parental self-report on eye conditions and treatment coded by clinical reviewers, participants were grouped into mutually exclusive categories: no eye conditions, strabismus alone, refractive amblyopia, strabismic/mixed (refractive plus strabismic) amblyopia. The outcomes were levels and trajectories of passing English, Maths, Science at ages 7-16 years, passing national exams at age 16, and intentions at ages 14-17 to pursue higher (university) education. Adjusted analyses showed that amblyopia status was not associated with performance in English, Maths, and Science at any key stage, attainment in national exams, or intending to go to university. Similarly, the age-related trajectories of performance in core subjects and higher education intentions did not differ between the groups. There were no significant differences in main reason for having or not having university intentions.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no associations between a history of amblyopia and either adverse performance or age-related attainment trajectories in core subjects during key stages of statutory schooling as well as the absence of an association with intentions for higher education. These results should be reassuring to affected children and young people, and their families, teachers and physicians.

Risk factors of mortality in neonates with neonatal encephalopathy in a tertiary newborn care unit in Zimbabwe over a 12-month period

Neonatal encephalopathy (NE) accounts for ~23% of the 2.4 million annual global neonatal deaths. Approximately 99% of global neonatal deaths occur in low-resource settings, however, accurate data from these low-resource settings are scarce. We reviewed risk factors of neonatal mortality in neonates admitted with neonatal encephalopathy from a tertiary neonatal unit in Zimbabwe. A retrospective review of risk factors of short-term neonatal encephalopathy mortality was conducted at Sally Mugabe Central Hospital (SMCH) (November 2018 -October 2019). Data were gathered using a tablet-based data capture and quality improvement newborn care application (Neotree). Analyses were performed on data from all admitted neonates with a diagnosis of neonatal encephalopathy, incorporating maternal, intrapartum, and neonatal risk predictors of the primary outcome: mortality. 494/2894 neonates had neonatal encephalopathy on admission and were included. Of these, 94 died giving a neonatal encephalopathy-case fatality rate (CFR) of 190 per 1000 admitted neonates. Caesarean section (odds ratio (OR) 2.95(95% confidence interval (CI) 1.39-6.25), convulsions (OR 7.13 (1.41-36.1)), lethargy (OR 3.13 (1.24-7.91)), Thompson score "11-14" (OR 2.98 (1.08-8.22)) or "15-22" (OR 17.61 (1.74-178.0)) were significantly associated with neonatal death. No maternal risk factors were associated with mortality. Nearly 1 in 5 neonates diagnosed with neonatal encephalopathy died before discharge, similar to other low-resource settings but more than in typical high-resource centres. The Thompson score, a validated, sensitive and specific tool for diagnosing neonates with neonatal encephalopathy was an appropriate predictive clinical scoring system to identify at risk neonates in this setting. On univariable analysis time-period, specifically a period of staff shortages due to industrial action, had a significant impact on neonatal encephalopathy mortality. Emergency caesarean section was associated with increased mortality, suggesting perinatal care is likely to be a key moment for future interventions.

Machine learning forecasting for COVID-19 pandemic-associated effects on paediatric respiratory infections

OBJECTIVE

The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent government restrictions have had a major impact on healthcare services and disease transmission, particularly those associated with acute respiratory infection. This study examined non-identifiable routine electronic patient record data from a specialist children's hospital in England, UK, examining the effect of pandemic mitigation measures on seasonal respiratory infection rates compared with forecasts based on open-source, transferable machine learning models.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective longitudinal study of respiratory disorder diagnoses between January 2010 and February 2022. All diagnoses were extracted from routine healthcare activity data and diagnosis rates were calculated for several diagnosis groups. To study changes in diagnoses, seasonal forecast models were fit to prerestriction period data and extrapolated.

RESULTS

Based on 144 704 diagnoses from 31 002 patients, all but two diagnosis groups saw a marked reduction in diagnosis rates during restrictions. We observed 91%, 89%, 72% and 63% reductions in peak diagnoses of 'respiratory syncytial virus', 'influenza', 'acute nasopharyngitis' and 'acute bronchiolitis', respectively. The machine learning predictive model calculated that total diagnoses were reduced by up to 73% (z-score: -26) versus expected during restrictions and increased by up to 27% (z-score: 8) postrestrictions.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate the association between COVID-19 related restrictions and significant reductions in paediatric seasonal respiratory infections. Moreover, while many infection rates have returned to expected levels postrestrictions, others remain supressed or followed atypical winter trends. This study further demonstrates the applicability and efficacy of routine electronic record data and cross-domain time-series forecasting to model, monitor, analyse and address clinically important issues.

Estimating the number of livebirths to Hepatitis C seropositive women in England in 2013 and 2018 using Bayesian modelling

BACKGROUND

The UK National Screening Committee currently recommends against antenatal screening for Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in England due to lack of HCV prevalence data and treatment licensed for use in pregnancy. We aimed to produce regional and national estimates of the number and proportion of livebirths to HCV seropositive women in England in 2013 and 2018.

METHODS

A logistic regression model fitted in the Bayesian framework estimated probabilities of HCV seropositivity among 24,599 mothers delivering in the North Thames area of England in 2012 adjusted by maternal age and region of birth. These probabilities were applied to the underlying population structures of women delivering livebirths in England in 2013 and 2018 to estimate the number of livebirths to HCV seropositive women in these years nationally and by region. The Bayesian approach allowed the uncertainty associated with all estimates to be properly quantified.

RESULTS

Nationally, the estimated number of livebirths to women seropositive for HCV for England was 464 (95% credible interval [CI] 300-692) in 2013 and 481 (95%CI 310-716) in 2018, or 70.0 (95%CI 45.0-104.1) per 100,000 and 76.9 (95%CI 49.5-114.4) per 100,000 in these years respectively. Regions with the highest estimated number of livebirths to HCV seropositive women in 2013 and 2018 included London with 118.5 and 124.4 and the South East with 67.0 and 74.0 per 100,000 livebirths.

CONCLUSION

Few previous studies have investigated HCV among pregnant women in England. These findings complement and supplement existing research by providing national and regional estimates for the number of livebirths to HCV seropositive women in England. Bayesian modelling allows future national and regional estimates to be produced and the associated uncertainty to be properly quantified.

Juvenile Dermatomyositis: what comes next? Long-term outcomes in childhood myositis from a patient perspective

BACKGROUND

To describe long-term outcomes in JDM using patient questionnaires and link to longitudinal, prospectively collected data for each patient within the Juvenile Dermatomyositis Cohort and Biomarker Study, UK and Ireland (JDCBS) to determine outcome predictors.  METHODS: JDCBS participants aged ≥ 16y completed the SF36, HAQ and a questionnaire regarding current disease features, medications, education and employment. Data collected from the JDCBS included disease subtype, demographics, clinical and laboratory features. Intensity indices were calculated for physician VAS, modified skin DAS, CMAS and MMT8 by dividing area under the curve (AUC) from longitudinal score trajectories by duration of study follow-up (y). Relationships between questionnaire and JDCBS clinical / laboratory data were investigated fitting statistical models appropriate for cross sectional and longitudinal data.

RESULTS

Of 190 questionnaires sent, 84 (44%) were returned. Average age of respondents was 20.6 years (SD 3.9), time since diagnosis was 12.4 years (SD 5.0), age at onset was 9.2 years (SD 4.3), female to male ratio 4.25:1. Forty-nine (59%) self-reported persistently active disease, 54 (65%) were still taking immunosuppressive medication. 14/32 at school/higher education reported myositis adversely affecting academic results. 18-24 year-olds were twice as likely to be unemployed compared the UK population (OR = 0.456, 95% CI 0.24, 0.84, p = 0.001). Participants ≥ 18 years were three times as likely to be living with a parent/guardian (OR = 3.39, p < 0.001). SF36 MCS and MMT8 intensity index scores were significantly correlated (ρ = 0.328, p = 0.007).

CONCLUSIONS

After 12.4 years, questionnaire responders reported self-perceived high rates of persistently active disease and medication use, reduced rates of employment and were more likely to live with a parent/guardian. Perceived persistently active muscle disease appeared to affect quality of life in these patients and was the most significant contributor to long-term outcomes. Our findings highlight the importance of including the patient perspective in the assessment of long term outcomes, so that that we can start to target initial management strategies more effectively based on a combination of clinical and patient-reported data.

Life history trade-offs associated with exposure to low maternal capital are different in sons compared to daughters: Evidence from a prospective Brazilian birth cohort

Background

Environmental exposures in early life explain variability in many physiological and behavioural traits in adulthood. Recently, we showed that exposure to a composite marker of low maternal capital explained the clustering of adverse behavioural and physical traits in adult daughters in a Brazilian birth cohort. These associations were strongly mediated by whether or not the daughter had reproduced by the age of 18 years. Using evolutionary life history theory, we attributed these associations to trade-offs between competing outcomes, whereby daughters exposed to low maternal capital prioritised investment in reproduction and defence over maintenance and growth. However, little is known about such trade-offs in sons.

Methods

We investigated 2,024 mother-son dyads from the same birth cohort. We combined data on maternal height, body mass index, income, and education into a composite "maternal capital" index. Son outcomes included reproductive status at the age of 18 years, growth trajectory, adult anthropometry, body composition, cardio-metabolic risk, educational attainment, work status, and risky behaviour (smoking, violent crime). We tested whether sons' early reproduction and exposure to low maternal capital were associated with adverse outcomes and whether this accounted for the clustering of adverse outcomes within individuals.

Results

Sons reproducing early were shorter, less educated, and more likely to be earning a salary and showing risky behaviour compared to those not reproducing, but did not differ in foetal growth. Low maternal capital was associated with a greater likelihood of sons' reproducing early, leaving school, and smoking. High maternal capital was positively associated with sons' birth weight, adult size, and staying in school. However, the greater adiposity of high-capital sons was associated with an unhealthier cardio-metabolic profile.

Conclusion

Exposure to low maternal investment is associated with trade-offs between life history functions, helping to explain the clustering of adverse outcomes in sons. The patterns indicated future discounting, with reduced maternal investment associated with early reproduction but less investment in growth, education, or healthy behaviour. However, we also found differences compared to our analyses of daughters, with fewer physical costs associated with early reproduction. Exposure to intergenerational "cycles of disadvantage" has different effects on sons vs. daughters, hence interventions may have sex-specific consequences.

Linking cohort data and Welsh routine health records to investigate children at risk of delayed primary vaccination

BACKGROUND

Delayed primary vaccination is one of the strongest predictors of subsequent incomplete immunisation. Identifying children at risk of such delay may enable targeting of interventions, thus decreasing vaccine-preventable illness.

OBJECTIVES

To explore socio-demographic factors associated with delayed receipt of the Diphtheria, Tetanus and Pertussis (DTP) vaccine.

METHODS

We included 1,782 children, born between 2000 and 2001, participating in the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) and resident in Wales, whose parents gave consent for linkage to National Community Child Health Database records at the age seven years contact. We examined child, maternal, family and area characteristics associated with delayed receipt of the first dose of the DTP vaccine.

RESULTS

98.6% received the first dose of DTP. The majority, 79.6% (n = 1,429) received it on time (between 8 and 12 weeks of age), 14.2% (n = 251) received it early (prior to 8 weeks of age) and 4.8% (n = 79) were delayed (after 12 weeks of age); 1.4% (n = 23) never received it. Delayed primary vaccination was more likely among children with older natural siblings (risk ratio 3.82, 95% confidence interval (1.97, 7.38)), children admitted to special/intensive care (3.15, (1.65, 5.99)), those whose birth weight was > 4Kg (2.02, (1.09, 3.73)) and boys (1.53, (1.01, 2.31)). There was a reduced risk of delayed vaccination with increasing maternal age (0.73, (0.53, 1.00) per 5 year increase) and for babies born to graduate mothers (0.27, (0.08, 0.90)).

CONCLUSIONS

Although the majority of infants were vaccinated in a timely manner, identification of infants at increased risk of early or delayed vaccination will enable targeting of interventions to facilitate timely immunisation. This is to our knowledge the first study exploring individual level socio-demographic factors associated with delayed primary vaccination in the UK and demonstrates the benefits of linking cohort data to routinely-collected child health data.

Determinants of accident and emergency attendances and emergency admissions in infants: birth cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is limited understanding of the drivers of increasing infant accident and emergency (A&E) attendances and emergency hospital admissions across England. We examine variations in use of emergency hospital services among infants by local areas in England and investigate the extent to which infant and socio-economic factors explain these variations.

METHODS

Birth cohort study using linked administrative Hospital Episode Statistics data in England. Singleton live births between 1-April-2012 and 31-March-2019 were followed up for 1 year; from 1-April-2013 (from the discharge date of their birth admission) until their first birthday, death or 31-March-2019. Mixed effects negative binomial models were used to calculate incidence rate ratios for A&E attendances and emergency admissions and mixed effects logistic regression models estimated odds ratio of conversion (the proportion of infants subsequently admitted after attending A&E). Models were adjusted for individual-level factors and included a random effect for local authority (LA).

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 3,665,414 births in 150 English LAs. Rates of A&E attendances and emergency admissions were highest amongst: infants born < 32 weeks gestation; with presence of congenital anomaly; and to mothers < 20-years-old. Area-level deprivation was positively associated with A&E attendance rates, but not associated with conversion probability. A&E attendance rates were highest in the North East (916 per 1000 child-years, 95%CI: 911 to 921) and London (876 per 1000, 95%CI: 874 to 879), yet London had the lowest emergency admission rates (232 per 1000, 95%CI: 231 to 234) and conversion probability (25% vs 39% in South West). Adjusting for individual-level factors did not significantly affect variability in A&E attendance and emergency admission rates by local authority.

CONCLUSIONS

Drivers of A&E attendances and emergency admissions include individual-level factors such being born premature, with congenital anomaly and from socio-economically disadvantaged young parent families. Support for such vulnerable infants and families should be provided alongside preventative health care in primary and community care settings. The impact of these services requires further investigation. Substantial geographical variations in rates were not explained by individual-level factors. This suggests more detailed understanding of local and underlying service-level factors would provide targets for further research on mechanisms and policy priority.

The association between childhood hearing loss and self-reported peer victimisation, depressive symptoms, and self-harm: longitudinal analyses of a prospective, nationally representative cohort study

BACKGROUND

Childhood hearing loss (HL) predicts poor mental health and is associated with a higher risk of communication difficulties. The relationship of childhood HL with specific types of poor mental health (such as depressive symptoms or self-harm) and peer victimisation remains unclear.

METHODS

We analysed data from the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS), a prospective observational cohort study of children living in the UK at age 9 months and born between 2000 to 2002. Data were available on the children and their families at ages 9 months, then at 3, 5, 7, 11, and 14 years. Participants were 10,858 singleton children with self-reported data on peer victimisation, depressive symptoms, and self-harm at age 14 years. Multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to estimate odds ratios (OR) for HL with peer victimisation, depressive symptoms, and self-harm. HL presence was examined in terms of any HL between ages 9 months and 14 years, as well as by HL trajectory type (defined by onset and persistence). Analyses were adjusted for potential sources of confounding, survey design, and attrition at age 14 years. Interactions between sex and HL were examined in each model and multiple imputation procedures used to address missing data.

RESULTS

Children with any HL had increased odds of depressive symptoms (OR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.09-1.60), self-harm (1.41, 1.12-1.78) and, in girls only, peer victimisation (girls: 1.81, 1.29-2.55; boys: 1.05, 0.73-1.51), compared to those without HL. HL with later age at onset and persistence to age 14 years was the only trajectory associated with all outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Childhood HL may predict peer victimisation (in girls), depressive symptoms, and self-harm. Further research is needed to identify HL trajectories and methods to facilitate good mental health in children with HL.

Classification Performance of Neural Networks Versus Logistic Regression Models: Evidence From Healthcare Practice

Machine learning encompasses statistical approaches such as logistic regression (LR) through to more computationally complex models such as neural networks (NN). The aim of this study is to review current published evidence for performance from studies directly comparing logistic regression, and neural network classification approaches in medicine.

A literature review was carried out to identify primary research studies which provided information regarding comparative area under the curve (AUC) values for the overall performance of both LR and NN for a defined clinical healthcare-related problem. Following an initial search, articles were reviewed to remove those that did not meet the criteria and performance metrics were extracted from the included articles. Teh initial search revealed 114 articles; 21 studies were included in the study. In 13/21 (62%) of cases, NN had a greater AUC compared to LR, but in most the difference was small and unlikely to be of clinical significance; (unweighted mean difference in AUC 0.03 (95% CI 0-0.06) in favour of NN versus LR.

In the majority of cases examined across a range of clinical settings, LR models provide reasonable performance that is only marginally improved using more complex methods such as NN. In many circumstances, the use of a relatively simple LR model is likely to be adequate for real-world needs but in specific circumstances in which large amounts of data are available, and where even small increases in performance would provide significant management value, the application of advanced analytic tools such as NNs may be indicated.

AlzEye: longitudinal record-level linkage of ophthalmic imaging and hospital admissions of 353 157 patients in London, UK

PURPOSE

Retinal signatures of systemic disease ('oculomics') are increasingly being revealed through a combination of high-resolution ophthalmic imaging and sophisticated modelling strategies. Progress is currently limited not mainly by technical issues, but by the lack of large labelled datasets, a sine qua non for deep learning. Such data are derived from prospective epidemiological studies, in which retinal imaging is typically unimodal, cross-sectional, of modest number and relates to cohorts, which are not enriched with subpopulations of interest, such as those with systemic disease. We thus linked longitudinal multimodal retinal imaging from routinely collected National Health Service (NHS) data with systemic disease data from hospital admissions using a privacy-by-design third-party linkage approach.

PARTICIPANTS

Between 1 January 2008 and 1 April 2018, 353 157 participants aged 40 years or older, who attended Moorfields Eye Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, a tertiary ophthalmic institution incorporating a principal central site, four district hubs and five satellite clinics in and around London, UK serving a catchment population of approximately six million people.

FINDINGS TO DATE

Among the 353 157 individuals, 186 651 had a total of 1 337 711 Hospital Episode Statistics admitted patient care episodes. Systemic diagnoses recorded at these episodes include 12 022 patients with myocardial infarction, 11 735 with all-cause stroke and 13 363 with all-cause dementia. A total of 6 261 931 retinal images of seven different modalities and across three manufacturers were acquired from 1 54 830 patients. The majority of retinal images were retinal photographs (n=1 874 175) followed by optical coherence tomography (n=1 567 358).

FUTURE PLANS

AlzEye combines the world's largest single institution retinal imaging database with nationally collected systemic data to create an exceptional large-scale, enriched cohort that reflects the diversity of the population served. First analyses will address cardiovascular diseases and dementia, with a view to identifying hidden retinal signatures that may lead to earlier detection and risk management of these life-threatening conditions.

Differences in maternal and early child nutritional status by offspring sex in lowland Nepal

OBJECTIVE

On average, boys grow faster than girls in early life but appear more susceptible to undernutrition. We investigated sex differences in early child growth, and whether maternal nutritional status and diet differed by offspring sex during and after pregnancy in an undernourished population.

METHODS

We analyzed longitudinal data from a cluster-randomized trial from plains Nepal, stratifying results by child or gestational age. Children's outcomes (0-20 months) were weight, length, and head circumference and their z-scores relative to WHO reference data in 2-monthly intervals (n range: 24837 to 25 946). Maternal outcomes were mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), and body mass index (BMI) during pregnancy (12-40 weeks) (n = 5550 and n = 5519) and postpartum (n = 15 710 and n = 15 356), and diet in pregnancy. We fitted unadjusted and adjusted mixed-effects linear and logistic regression models comparing boys with girls.

RESULTS

Boys were larger than girls, however relative to their sex-specific reference they had lower length and head circumference z-scores from birth to 12 months, but higher weight-for-length z-scores from 0 to 6 months. Mothers of sons had higher MUAC and BMI around 36 weeks gestation but no other differences in pregnancy diets or pregnancy/postpartum maternal anthropometry were detected. Larger sex differences in children's size in the food supplementation study arm suggest that food restriction in pregnancy may limit fetal growth of boys more than girls.

CONCLUSIONS

Generally, mothers' anthropometry and dietary intake do not differ according to offspring sex. As boys are consistently larger, we expect that poor maternal nutritional status may compromise their growth more than girls. Copyright © 2021 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Trends in antiretroviral use in pregnancy in the UK and Ireland, 2008-2018

INTRODUCTION

HIV treatment recommendations have evolved over time, reflecting both growing availability of new antiretrovirals and accumulating evidence on their safe and effective use. We analysed patterns of antiretroviral use among diagnosed pregnant women living with HIV delivering in the UK and Ireland between 2008 and 2018 using national surveillance data.

METHODS

All singleton pregnancies with known outcomes and known timing of antiretroviral initiation reported to the National Surveillance of HIV in Pregnancy and Childhood were included. Every individual instance of specific antiretroviral use was the unit of analysis in generating a snapshot of antiretroviral use overall and over calendar time. The final analysis was restricted to the 14 most frequently prescribed antiretrovirals.

RESULTS

There were 12 099 singleton pregnancies reported during 2008-2018 and a total of 38 214 individual uses of the 14 most commonly prescribed antiretrovirals, the majority of which were started before conception (70.9%). In 2008, 37.7% (482/1279) of pregnancies were conceived under treatment, reaching 80.9% (509/629) by 2018. Patterns of antiretroviral use have changed over time, particularly for third agents. Between 2008 and 2018 the most frequently used protease inhibitor shifted from lopinavir to darunavir, whereas use of integrase inhibitors increased steadily over time.

CONCLUSIONS

These national surveillance data enable investigation of the 'real-world' use of antiretrovirals in pregnancy on a population level. Findings demonstrate mixed responsiveness of antiretroviral prescription to changes in pregnancy guideline recommendations and may also reflect changes in commissioning and in the characteristics of pregnant women living with HIV.

Girls start life on an uneven playing field

Background and objectives

Evolutionary research on the sex ratio at birth (SRB) has focused on explaining variability within and between populations, and whether parental fitness is maximized by producing daughters or sons. We tested predictors of SRB in a low-income setting, to understand whether girls differ from boys in their likelihood of being born into families with the capacity to invest in them, which has implications for their future health and fitness.

Methodology

We used data from a cluster randomized control trial from lowland rural Nepal (16 115 mother-child dyads). We applied principal component analysis to extract two composite indices reflecting maternal socio-economic and reproductive (parity, age) capital. We fitted mixed-effects logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios of having a girl in association with these individual factors and indices.

Results

The SRB was 112. Compared to the global reference SRB (105), there were seven missing girls per 100 boys. Uneducated, early-marrying, poorer and shorter mothers were more likely to give birth to girls. Analysing composite maternal indices, lower socio-economic and reproductive capital were independently associated with a greater likelihood of having a girl.

Conclusions and implications

In this population, girls start life facing composite disadvantages, being more likely than boys to be born to mothers with lower socio-economic status and reproductive capital. Both physiological and behavioural mechanisms may contribute to these epidemiological associations. Differential early exposure by sex to maternal factors may underpin intergenerational cycles of gender inequality, mediated by developmental trajectory, education and socio-economic status.

Associations of age at marriage and first pregnancy with maternal nutritional status in Nepal

Background and objectives

Women’s nutritional status is important for their health and reproductive fitness. In a population where early marriage is common, we investigated how women’s nutritional status is associated with their age at marriage (marking a geographical transfer between households), and at first pregnancy.

Methodology

We used data from a cluster-randomized control trial from lowland Nepal (n = 4071). Outcomes including body mass index (BMI) were measured in early pregnancy and trial endpoint, after delivery. We fitted mixed-effects linear and logistic regression models to estimate associations of age at marriage and age at pregnancy with outcomes, and with odds of chronic energy deficiency (CED, BMI <18.5 kg/m²), at both timepoints.

Results

BMI in early pregnancy averaged 20.9 kg/m², with CED prevalence of 12.5%. In 750 women measured twice, BMI declined 1.2 (95% confidence interval 1.1, 1.3) kg/m² between early pregnancy and endpoint, when CED prevalence was 35.5%. Early pregnancy was associated in dose-response manner with poorer nutritional status. Early marriage was independently associated with poorer nutritional status among those pregnant ≤15 years, but with better nutritional status among those pregnant ≥19 years.

Conclusions and implications

The primary determinant of nutritional status was age at pregnancy, but this association also varied by marriage age. Our results suggest that natal households may marry their daughters earlier if food insecure, but that their nutritional status can improve in the marital household if pregnancy is delayed. Marriage age therefore determines which household funds adolescent weight gain, with implications for Darwinian fitness of the members of both households.

Relative power: Explaining the effects of food and cash transfers on allocative behaviour in rural Nepalese households

We estimate the effects of antenatal food and cash transfers with women's groups on household allocative behaviour and explore whether these effects are explained by intergenerational bargaining among women. Interventions were tested in randomised-controlled trial in rural Nepal, in a food-insecure context where pregnant women are allocated the least adequate diets. We show households enrolled in a cash transfer intervention allocated pregnant women with 2-3 pp larger shares of multiple foods (versus their mothers-in-law and male household heads) than households in a control group. Households in a food transfer intervention only increased pregnant women's allocation of staple foods (by 2 pp). Intergenerational bargaining power may partly mediate the effects of the cash transfers but not food transfers, whereas household food budget and nutrition knowledge do not mediate any effects. Our findings highlight the role of intergenerational bargaining in determining the effectiveness of interventions aiming to reach and/or empower junior women.

Quantifying the association of natal household wealth with women's early marriage in Nepal

BACKGROUND

Women's early marriage (<18 years) is a critical global health issue affecting 650 million women worldwide. It is associated with a range of adverse maternal physical and mental health outcomes, including early childbearing, child undernutrition and morbidity. Poverty is widely asserted to be the key risk factor driving early marriage. However, most studies do not measure wealth in the natal household, but instead, use marital household wealth as a proxy for natal wealth. Further research is required to understand the key drivers of early marriage.

METHODS

We investigated whether natal household poverty was associated with marrying early, independently of women's lower educational attainment and broader markers of household disadvantage. Data on natal household wealth (material asset score) for 2,432 women aged 18-39 years was used from the cluster-randomized Low Birth Weight South Asia Trial in lowland rural Nepal. Different early marriage definitions (<15, <16, <17 and <18 years) were used because most of our population marries below the conventional 18-year cut-off. Logistic mixed-effects models were fitted to estimate the probabilities, derived from adjusted Odds Ratios, of (a) marrying at different early ages for the full sample and for the uneducated women, and (b) being uneducated in the first place.

RESULTS

Women married at median age 15 years (interquartile range 3), and only 18% married ≥18 years. Two-thirds of the women were entirely uneducated. We found that, rather than poverty, women's lower education was the primary factor associated with early marriage, regardless of how 'early' is defined. Neither poverty nor other markers of household disadvantage were associated with early marriage at any age in the uneducated women. However, poverty was associated with women being uneducated.

CONCLUSION

When assets are measured in the natal household in this population, there is no support for the conventional hypothesis that household poverty is associated with daughters' early marriage, but it is associated with not going to school. We propose that improving access to free education would both reduce early marriage and have broader benefits for maternal and child health and gender equality.

Associations between early marriage and preterm delivery: Evidence from lowland Nepal

OBJECTIVES

Preterm delivery (<37 weeks gestation) is the largest cause of child mortality worldwide. Marriage and pregnancy during adolescence have been associated with an increased risk of preterm delivery. We investigate independent associations of age at marriage and age at first pregnancy with preterm delivery in a cohort of women from rural lowland Nepal.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 17 974 women in the Low Birth Weight South Asia Trial. Logistic regression models tested associations of age at marriage and age at first pregnancy with preterm delivery, for primigravida (n = 6 243) and multigravida (n = 11 731) women. Models were adjusted for maternal education, maternal caste, and household asset score.

RESULTS

Ninety percent of participants had married at <18 years and 58% had their first pregnancy at <18 years. 20% of participants delivered preterm. Primigravida participants married at ≤14 years had higher odds of preterm delivery than those married ≥18 years, when adjusting for study design (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.45, 95% CI: 1.15-1.83), confounders (aOR 1.28: 1.01-1.62) and confounders + age at pregnancy (aOR 1.29: 1.00-1.68). Associations were insignificant for multigravida women. No significant associations were observed between age at first pregnancy and preterm delivery.

DISCUSSION

In this population, early marriage, rather than pregnancy, is a risk factor for preterm delivery. We hypothesize that psychological stress, a driver of preterm delivery which is increased among those marrying young, rather than physiological immaturity, drives this association. Further research into the psychological consequences of child marriage in Nepal is needed.

The role of social support in reducing the impact of violence on adolescents' mental health in São Paulo, Brazil

Objectives

We investigated whether perceived social support among adolescent students moderated the association between violence exposure and internalising symptoms in São Paulo city, Brazil.

Methods

We tested the stress-buffering model using data from the cross-sectional school-based, survey São Paulo Project on the Social Development of Children and Adolescents. Internalising symptoms were measured using an adapted version of the Social Behaviour Questionnaire; serious victimisation, being bullied once/week, school violence and community violence, friend and teacher support were scales adapted by the research team; the Alabama Parenting Questionnaire measured parenting style. Linear mixed-effects models were used to quantify moderation effects of (i) social support between violence exposure and internalising symptoms and (ii) gender between violence exposure and internalising symptoms across schools.

Results

Across schools, being bullied once/week, school violence, and community violence were associated with a significant (p<0.001) increase in internalising symptoms (e.g., bullied b = 5.76, 95% CI 2.26, 9.26; school violence b = 0.48, 95% CI 0.30, 0.67; community violence b = 0.36; 95% CI 0.22, 0.50). Males exposed to all types of violence had significantly lower (p<0.01) internalising symptoms compared to females (e.g., serious victimisation: b = -1.45; 95% CI -2.60, -0.29; school violence b = -0.27; 95% CI -0.30, -0.24; community violence b = -0.23; 95% CI -0.25, -0.20). As a main effect, social support was associated with a significant (p<0.01) decrease in internalising symptoms across schools (e.g., positive parenting b = -2.42; 95% CI -3.12, -1.72; parent involvement b = -2.75; 95% CI -3.32, -2.17; friend support b = -1.05; 95% CI -1.74, -0.34; teacher support b = -0.90; 95% CI -1.58, -0.22). Social support did not moderate the association between violence exposure and internalising symptoms.

Conclusions

Adolescent students in São Paulo exposed to violence have a higher likelihood of internalising symptoms, compared to those who are not. Support from parents, friends, and teachers, independent of violence, appear to be protective against internalising symptoms, pointing to potential programmes that could improve adolescent mental health.