Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Ultra-processed Food Intake and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in Korean Adults

BACKGROUND

Several studies from the United States and European countries reported a positive association between ultra-processed food intake and diabetes risk. However, little is known about the association in Asian populations. It is also unknown about the individual ultra-processed food items that are most unfavorably associated with diabetes risk.

OBJECTIVE

We examined the associations of ultra-processed food intake (combined, as well as individual ultra-processed food items) with the risk of type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

This prospective analysis included 7438 participants aged 40-69 y from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study Ansan-Ansung cohort. Dietary intake was assessed at baseline using a 103-item semiquantitative food-frequency questionnaire. Ultra-processed foods were classified using the Nova definition. Incident type 2 diabetes cases were identified via follow-up interviews and health examination. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

During the follow-up (2001-2019; median: 15 y), a total of 1187 type 2 diabetes cases were identified. Compared with the lowest quartile of ultra-processed food intake, the highest quartile was positively associated with diabetes risk [HR (95% CI) = 1.34 (1.13, 1.59), P-trend = 0.002]. The association did not change after additional adjustment for diet quality or BMI. Among individual ultra-processed food items, a higher consumption of ham/sausage [per 1% increase in the weight ratio: HR (95% CI) = 1.40 (1.05, 1.86)], instant noodles [1.07 (1.02, 1.11)], ice cream [1.08 (1.03, 1.13)], and carbonated beverages [1.02 (1.00, 1.04)] were associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes, whereas a higher intake of candy/chocolate was associated with a decreased risk [0.78 (0.62, 0.99)].

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that the high intake of ultra-processed foods, particularly ham/sausage, instant noodles, ice cream, and carbonated beverages, is associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes in Korean adults.

Mechanistic Investigation of WWOX Function in NF-kB-Induced Skin Inflammation in Psoriasis

Psoriasis is a chronic inflammatory skin disease characterized by epidermal hyperproliferation, aberrant differentiation of keratinocytes, and dysregulated immune responses. WW domain-containing oxidoreductase (WWOX) is a non-classical tumor suppressor gene that regulates multiple cellular processes, including proliferation, apoptosis, and migration. This study aimed to explore the possible role of WWOX in the pathogenesis of psoriasis. Immunohistochemical analysis showed that the expression of WWOX was increased in epidermal keratinocytes of both human psoriatic lesions and imiquimod-induced mice psoriatic model. Immortalized human epidermal keratinocytes were transduced with a recombinant adenovirus expressing microRNA specific for WWOX to downregulate its expression. Inflammatory responses were detected using Western blotting, real-time quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. In human epidermal keratinocytes, WWOX knockdown reduced nuclear factor-kappa B signaling and levels of proinflammatory cytokines induced by polyinosinic: polycytidylic acid [(poly(I:C)] in vitro. Furthermore, calcium chelator and protein kinase C (PKC) inhibitors significantly reduced poly(I:C)-induced inflammatory reactions. WWOX plays a role in the inflammatory reaction of epidermal keratinocytes by regulating calcium and PKC signaling. Targeting WWOX could be a novel therapeutic approach for psoriasis in the future.

Dyslipidemia Fact Sheet in South Korea, 2022

BACKGRUOUND

This study aimed to investigate the prevalence and status of dyslipidemia management among South Korean adults, as performed by the Korean Society of Lipid and Atherosclerosis under the name Dyslipidemia Fact Sheet 2022.

METHODS

We analyzed the lipid profiles, age-standardized and crude prevalence, management status of hypercholesterolemia and dyslipidemia, and health behaviors among Korean adults aged ≥20 years, using the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data between 2007 and 2020.

RESULTS

In South Korea, the crude prevalence of hypercholesterolemia (total cholesterol ≥240 mg/dL or use of a lipid-lowering drug) in 2020 was 24%, and the age-standardized prevalence of hypercholesterolemia more than doubled from 2007 to 2020. The crude treatment rate was 55.2%, and the control rate was 47.7%. The crude prevalence of dyslipidemia-more than one out of three conditions (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥160 or the use of a lipid-lowering drug, triglycerides ≥200, or high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-C] [men and women] <40 mg/dL)-was 40.2% between 2016 and 2020. However, it increased to 48.2% when the definition of hypo-HDL-cholesterolemia in women changed from <40 to <50 mg/dL.

CONCLUSION

Although the prevalence of hypercholesterolemia and dyslipidemia has steadily increased in South Korea, the treatment rate remains low. Therefore, continuous efforts are needed to manage dyslipidemia through cooperation between the national healthcare system, patients, and healthcare providers.

Dyslipidemia Fact Sheet in South Korea, 2022

Objective

This study aimed to investigate the prevalence and status of dyslipidemia management among South Korean adults, as performed by the Korean Society of Lipid and Atherosclerosis under the name Dyslipidemia Fact Sheet 2022.

Methods

We analyzed the lipid profiles, age-standardized and crude prevalence, management status of hypercholesterolemia and dyslipidemia, and health behaviors among Korean adults aged ≥20 years, using the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data between 2007 and 2020.

Results

In South Korea, the crude prevalence of hypercholesterolemia (total cholesterol ≥240 mg/dL or use of a lipid-lowering drug) in 2020 was 24%, and the age-standardized prevalence of hypercholesterolemia more than doubled from 2007 to 2020. The crude treatment rate was 55.2%, and the control rate was 47.7%. The crude prevalence of dyslipidemia (more than one out of three conditions [low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol ≥160 or the use of a lipid-lowering drug, triglycerides ≥200, or high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (men and women) <40 mg/dL]) was 40.2% between 2016 and 2020. However, it increased to 48.2% when the definition of hypo-high-density lipoprotein-cholesterolemia in women changed from <40 to <50 mg/dL.

Conclusion

Although the prevalence of hypercholesterolemia and dyslipidemia has steadily increased in South Korea, the treatment rate remains low. Therefore, continuous efforts are needed to manage dyslipidemia through cooperation between the national healthcare system, patients, and healthcare providers.

Public Awareness of Dyslipidemia Among the Korean Population: A Survey Study

Objective

We aimed to assess the level of public awareness regarding dyslipidemia and its management among the Korean population.

Methods

We conducted a web- or mobile-based survey study targeting the general population, using various recruitment methods, between July 25, 2022 and August 26, 2022. The questionnaire consisted of 12 questions designed to collect demographic information and evaluate participants' awareness and knowledge about dyslipidemia.

Results

In total, 2,882 participants who completed the survey were included in the analysis. Among the participants, a substantial majority (89.1%) were familiar with the concepts of "good cholesterol" and "bad cholesterol," while a comparatively lower percentage (just 46.7%) were acquainted with the term "dyslipidemia." Noticeable variations in understanding were observed when examining specific aspects of dyslipidemia management, including diet, exercise, and pharmacotherapy.

Conclusion

The results of this survey underscore the significance of enhancing public awareness about dyslipidemia within the context of health literacy, demonstrating the necessity for a more comprehensive approach that includes education and policymaking to effectively manage dyslipidemia.

20-Year Trends in Metabolic Syndrome Among Korean Adults From 2001 to 2020

Background

The number of people with metabolic syndrome (MetS) is increasing worldwide, and many socioeconomic and environmental factors contribute to this.

Objectives

The authors investigated tangible trends in the prevalence of MetS using the 2001 to 2020 versions of the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES).

Methods

In these surveys, stratified multistage sampling designs were used to approximate the entire population. Blood pressure, waist circumference, and lifestyle variables were examined in a standardized fashion. Metabolic biomarkers were measured in a central laboratory operated by the Korean government.

Results

The age-adjusted prevalence of MetS increased significantly from 27.1% in 2001 to 33.2% in 2020. It was more prevalent in men (25.8%→40.0%) but did not change in women (28.2%→26.2%). Among the 5 MetS components, the proportions of high glucose level and large waist circumference increased substantially by 17.9% and 12.2% over 20 years, while high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels increased significantly, resulting in a decrease in low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol by 20.4%. Caloric intake derived from carbohydrates decreased from 68.1% to 61.3%, while fat consumption increased from 16.7% to 23.0%. Notably, sugar-sweetened beverage consumption showed an almost 4-fold increase from 2007 to 2020, while physical activity levels decreased by 12.2% from 2014 to 2020.

Conclusions

Glycemic dysregulation and abdominal obesity were key features contributing to the increased prevalence of MetS observed in Korean men during the past 20 years. Rapid economic and socioenvironmental changes in this period may be involved in this phenomenon. Understanding these changes in MetS could be valuable for other countries undergoing such socioeconomic transformation.

The Association between Advanced Liver Fibrosis and Mortality Is Modified by Dietary Quality among Korean Adults: Results from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey with Mortality Data

Advanced fibrosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with an increased risk of mortality; however, an independent association of liver fibrosis with mortality is not well defined. We aimed to investigate the association between advanced liver fibrosis and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and the mediation effect of diet quality. We analyzed 35,531 participants with suspected NAFLD, excluding competing etiologies of chronic liver disease, from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007-2015, and followed up until 31 December 2019. The severity of liver fibrosis was assessed using the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) and the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4). The Cox proportional hazards model was used to examine the association of advanced liver fibrosis with mortality. During a mean 8.1 years of follow-up, 3426 deaths occurred. Advanced liver fibrosis determined by NFS and FIB-4 was associated with increased risks of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality after adjusting for confounders. When NFS and FIB-4 were combined, the high NFS + high FIB-4 group was significantly associated with higher risks of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.85, 95% CI 1.42-2.43) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 2.04, 95% CI 1.23-3.39), respectively, compared with the low NFS + low FIB-4 group. However, these associations were attenuated in people with high diet quality. Advanced liver fibrosis is an independent risk factor for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in people with NAFLD, and the association between advanced liver fibrosis and mortality is modified by a high-quality diet.

Trends in Diet Quality and Cardiometabolic Risk Factors Among Korean Adults, 2007-2018

IMPORTANCE

Few studies have examined the dietary trends in Korea beyond evaluating selected food groups. To help prevent cardiometabolic disease burdens, a comprehensive investigation of the trends in overall diet quality and identification of possible contributing factors would be useful.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the trends and independent associations of age, period, and birth cohort with diet quality and cardiometabolic risk factors among Korean adults.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Serial cross-sectional and age-period-cohort analyses were conducted of nationally representative 24-hour dietary recall data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007-2018. The study population included 65 416 Korean adults aged 19 to 79 years. Data analyses were conducted from March 1, 2020, through April 30, 2021.

EXPOSURES

Age, calendar year, birth cohort, and population sociodemographic characteristics.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Korean Healthy Eating Index (KHEI), a validated diet quality score (range, 0-90, with higher scores indicating greater diet quality), and 8 cardiometabolic risk factors (waist circumference and systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, serum total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, and fasting blood glucose levels).

RESULTS

Among 65 416 participants, mean age (SD) was 44.5 (0.1) years and 36 631 were women (55.8%). In 2007-2018, the age-standardized mean (SE) KHEI score increased from 51.0 (0.4) to 52.1 (0.5), which was associated with reduced sodium intake and increased whole grain, dairy, and protein-rich food intakes. The mean (SE) KHEI score was lowest at age 39 years (50.1 [0.3]) and increased at older ages (58.0 [0.3] at 79 years). Controlling for age and period effects, the highest KHEI score was observed among the birth cohorts of 1960-1964 (53.6 [0.9]) and decreased in subsequent cohorts (45.5 [1.2] in the 1990-1999 birth cohort). Similar cohort effects in cardiometabolic risk factors were observed, showing the lowest waist circumference, blood pressure, and total cholesterol levels among the birth cohorts of the 1960s and 1970s and higher levels among more recent birth cohorts (1990-1999 vs 1960-1964: waist circumference, 83.8 [0.5] vs 81.4 [0.4] cm; systolic blood pressure, 118.7 [0.7] vs 116.4 [0.4] mm Hg; total cholesterol, 200.2 [0.9] vs 198.9 [0.7] mg/dL). At most ages, periods, and birth cohorts, the mean KHEI score was consistently higher in adults living in urban areas (at age 45 years: 50.5 [1.0] vs 49.7 [0.9] rural) and among high-income (at age 45 years: 50.7 [1.1] vs 49.3 [0.9] low income) and educational levels (at age 45 years: 53.1 [0.9] vs 49.1 [1.0] low educational level).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings of this study suggest that, from 2007 to 2018, the diet quality of Korean adults modestly improved. Despite the improvement, inequalities in diet among age, birth cohort, and socioeconomic subgroups persisted, suggesting that more intense interventions may be needed to target the susceptible groups.

Gender and tobacco epidemic in South Korea: implications from age-period-cohort analysis and the DPSEEA framework

OBJECTIVES

To understand a 20-year trend of gender-specific smoking prevalence among adults in South Korea.

DESIGN

Age-period-cohort analysis using the intrinsic estimator method was applied to examine the separate contribution of age, period and cohort effect on smoking prevalence. The Driving Force-Pressure-State-Exposure-Effect-Action (DPSEEA) framework was used to explain the observed smoking trends by mapping potential determinants and to address policy implications.

SETTING

General adult population in South Korea.

PARTICIPANTS

34 828 men and 43 632 women who aged 19-78 years, were not currently pregnant and were without a prior diagnosis of cardiovascular disease or cancer.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Gender-specific current smoking prevalence using the 1998-2017 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

RESULTS

Our results showed gender-specific age and birth cohort effects. More specifically, the smoking prevalence peaked at their mid-20s (prevalence rate ratio (PRR): 1.54, 95% CI: 1.49 to 1.59) and cohort born in 1959-1963 (PRR: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.57 to 1.70) and then decreased in men. On the other hand, in women, the smoking prevalence consistently increased until their mid-40s (PRR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.27 to 1.84) and in recent birth cohort groups (PRR in 1994-1998 cohort: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.13 to 2.13). The period effects declined from 1998-2002 to 2003-2007, following increasing fluctuations in both genders. The smoking-DPSEEA framework showed the absence of policy actions to target female smokers and emphasised a proactive approach that tackles the upstream causes for smoking in women.

CONCLUSIONS

Men and women are clearly in different phases of the smoking epidemic in Korean population, and gender-tailored policies should be implemented.

Neuroprotective effects of ATPase inhibitory factor 1 preventing mitochondrial dysfunction in Parkinson's disease

Mitochondrial dysfunction is a key element in the progression of Parkinson’s disease (PD). The inefficient operation of the electron transport chain (ETC) impairs energy production and enhances the generation of oxidative stress contributing to the loss of dopaminergic cells in the brain. ATPase inhibitory factor 1 (IF1) is a regulator of mitochondrial energy metabolism. IF1 binds directly to the F₁Fo ATP synthase and prevents ATP wasting during compromised energy metabolism. In this study, we found treatment with IF1 protects mitochondria against PD-like insult in vitro. SH-SY5Y cells treated with IF1 were resistant to loss of ATP and mitochondrial inner membrane potential during challenge with rotenone, an inhibitor of complex I in the ETC. We further demonstrated that treatment with IF1 reversed rotenone-induced superoxide production in mitochondria and peroxide accumulation in whole cells. Ultimately, IF1 decreased protein levels of pro-apoptotic Bax, cleaved caspase-3, and cleaved PARP, rescuing SH-SY5Y cells from rotenone-mediated apoptotic death. Administration of IF1 significantly improved the results of pole and hanging tests performed by PD mice expressing human α-synuclein. This indicates that IF1 mitigates PD-associated motor deficit. Together, these findings suggest that IF1 exhibits a neuroprotective effect preventing mitochondrial dysfunction in PD pathology.

Higher food literacy scores are associated with healthier diet quality in children and adolescents: the development and validation of a two-dimensional food literacy measurement tool for children and adolescents

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Most child and adolescent food literacy measurement tools focus on nutrition and food safety. However, the importance of aspects related to the food system such as food distribution and food waste and their effects on environmental sustainability is growing. We therefore developed and validated a two-dimensional tool for children (8–12 years old) and adolescents (13–18 years old) that can comprehensively measure food literacy. The association of food literacy with diet quality and self-reported health was assessed.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

First, we developed a food literacy conceptual framework that contains food system and literacy dimensions through a literature review, focus group interviews, and expert review. After a face validity study, we conducted the main survey (n = 200) to validate the questionnaire. Construct validity and reliability were assessed using exploratory factor analysis (EFA), confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), and Cronbach's alpha.

RESULTS

As a result of the Delphi study, content validity was confirmed for the remaining 30 items after two items were excluded (content validity ratio = 0.86). Eleven items were excluded from the EFA results, while the CFA results indicated appropriate fit indices for the proposed model (comparative fit index = 0.904, root mean square error of approximation = 0.068). The final food literacy questionnaire consisted of 19 questions and comprised 5 factors: production, distribution, selection, preparation and cooking, and intake. Food literacy was positively associated with diet quality, as assessed by the Nutrition Quotient score, in both children and adolescents and with self-reported health in adolescents.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on this integrated conceptual framework, a two-dimensional 19-item food literacy measurement tool was developed and verified for practical use to improve the diet quality and food-related environmental sustainability awareness of children and adolescents.

Dietary Reference Intakes of sodium for Koreans: focusing on a new DRI component for chronic disease risk reduction

Sodium is a physiologically essential nutrient, but excessive intake is linked to the increased risk of various chronic diseases, particularly cardiovascular. It is, therefore, necessary to accomplish an evidence-based approach and establish the Korean Dietary Reference Intakes (KDRIs) index, to identify both the nutritional adequacy and health effects of sodium. This review presents the rationale for and the process of revising the KDRIs for sodium and, more importantly, establishing the sodium Chronic Disease Risk Reduction Intake (CDRR) level, which is a new specific set of values for chronic disease risk reduction. To establish the 2020 KDRIs for dietary sodium, the committee conducted a systematic literature review of the intake–response relationships between the selected indicators for sodium levels and human chronic diseases. In this review, 43 studies published from January 2014 to December 2018, using databases of PubMed and Web of Science, were finally included for evaluating the risk of bias and strength of evidence (SoE). We determined that SoE of the relationship between dietary sodium and cardiovascular diseases, cerebrovascular disease, and hypertension, was moderate to strong. However, due to insufficient scientific evidence, we were unable to establish the estimated average requirement and the recommended nutrient intake for dietary sodium. Therefore, the adequate intake of sodium for adults was established to be 1,500 mg/day, whereas the CDRR for dietary sodium was established at 2,300 mg/day for adults. Intake goal for dietary sodium established in the 2015 KDRIs instead of the tolerable upper intake level was not presented in the 2020 KDRIs. For the next revision of the KDRIs, there is a requirement to pursue further studies on nutritional adequacy and toxicity of dietary sodium, and their associations with chronic disease endpoint in the Korean population.

Biglycan reduces body weight by regulating food intake in mice and improves glucose metabolism through AMPK/AKT dual pathways in skeletal muscle

While biglycan (BGN) is suggested to direct diverse signaling cascades, the effects of soluble BGN as a ligand on metabolic traits have not been studied. Herein, we tested the effects of BGN on obesity in high-fat diet (HFD)-induced obese animals and glucose metabolism, with the underlying mechanism responsible for observed effects in vitro. Our results showed that BGN administration (1 mg/kg body weight, intraperitoneally) significantly prevented HFD-induced obesity, and this was mainly attributed to reduced food intake. Also, intracerebroventricular injection of BGN reduced food intake and body weight. The underlying mechanism includes modulation of neuropeptides gene expression involved in appetite in the hypothalamus in vitro and in vivo. In addition, BGN regulates glucose metabolism as shown by improved glucose tolerance in mice as well as AMPK/AKT dual pathway-driven enhanced glucose uptake and GLUT4 translocation in L6 myoblast cells. In conclusion, our results suggest BGN as a potential therapeutic target to treat risk factors for metabolic diseases.

Adiposity and mortality in Korean adults: a population-based prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The Asia-Pacific obesity classification recommends using lower BMI cutoffs in Asians compared with those in Western populations. However, the supporting evidence is scarce and little is known about the exact shape of the relations between adiposity and mortality in Asians.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the relations of BMI (in kg/m2), waist circumference, and predicted body fat mass with mortality using a population-based prospective cohort of Korean men and women.

METHODS

This analysis included 44,060 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007-2014 participants who agreed to mortality follow-up through 31 December, 2016. At baseline, height, weight, and waist circumference were measured. Using DXA data, we derived predicted body fat and fat-free mass. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate HRs and 95% CIs for the associations with mortality, adjusting for potential confounders. We tested for nonlinearity using the likelihood ratio test comparing nonlinear restricted cubic spline models with linear models.

RESULTS

During ≤9.5 y of follow-up, 1682 deaths were identified. The relations of BMI with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were J-shaped with the nadir at BMI = 25.0-29.9 (P-nonlinearity < 0.001). Among participants without a history of cancer or cardiovascular disease, waist circumference (≥95 compared with 75.0-79.9 cm: HR: 2.10; 95% CI: 1.54, 2.86) and predicted body fat mass (highest compared with lowest sextiles: 2.55; 95% CI: 1.60, 4.06) were positively associated with all-cause mortality (all P-nonlinearity ≤ 0.03), as well as cancer and cardiovascular mortality. The highest mortality was observed among participants who had both high predicted fat mass and low fat-free mass.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest a strong positive association between adiposity and mortality in a population without pre-existing disease. We observed the lowest mortality at BMI = 25.0-29.9, suggesting that the current cutoff for overweight (BMI ≥23) may require re-evaluation and that BMI alone may not be a useful measure for indicating adiposity in Asians.

Sleep duration and mortality in Korean adults: a population-based prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Increasing evidence suggests that sleep duration is associated with risks of various diseases including type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and certain types of cancer. However, the relationship with mortality is not clear, particularly in non-European populations. In this study, we investigated the association between sleep duration and mortality in a population-based prospective cohort of Korean adults.

METHODS

This analysis included 34,264 participants (14,704 men and 19,560 women) of the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) 2007-2013 who agreed to mortality follow-up through December 31, 2016. Sleep duration was self-reported at baseline and was categorized into four groups: ≤4, 5-6, 7-8, and ≥ 9 h/day. Cox proportional hazards models were performed to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the associations with mortality (all-cause as well as CVD- and cancer-specific), adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

During up to 9.5 years of follow-up, we identified a total of 1028 deaths. We observed the lowest mortality at 5-6 h/day sleep. Compared with 7-8 h/day of sleep, short (≤4 h/day) and long (≥9 h/day) sleep were associated with a 1.05-fold (95% CI = 0.79-1.39) and 1.47-fold (95% CI = 1.15-1.87) higher all-cause mortality, respectively. After additional adjustment for self-rated health, the positive association with short sleep disappeared (HR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.75-1.32) and the association with long sleep was slightly attenuated (HR = 1.38, 95% CI = 1.08-1.76). Long sleep was also nonsignificantly positively associated with both cancer-mortality (HR = 1.30, 95% CI = 0.86-1.98) and CVD-mortality (HR = 1.27, 95% CI = 0.73-2.21). There was no statistically significant evidence for nonlinearity in the relationships between sleep duration and mortality (all-cause as well as CVD- and cancer-specific). Effect modification by age, sex, education, and occupation were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that long sleep duration is associated with an increased all-cause mortality in Korean adults.

Development of a Comprehensive Food Literacy Measurement Tool Integrating the Food System and Sustainability

The concept of food literacy is evolving and expanding, increasing the need for a comprehensive measurement tool for food literacy. This study aimed to develop a validated food literacy questionnaire based on an expanded conceptual framework for food literacy. A literature review of existing frameworks and questionnaires for food literacy and focus group interviews (n = 12) were conducted to develop a conceptual framework and candidate questions. A Delphi study (n = 15) and pilot survey (n = 10) to test the preliminary questionnaire’s content and face validity were conducted, which were followed by the main survey (n = 200). Construct validity and reliability were assessed using exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and Cronbach’s alpha, respectively. Criterion validity was assessed by comparing food literacy scores with food knowledge scores (FN-score) and nutrient quotient scores (NQ-score). By integrating and revising the six existing conceptual frameworks and focus group interview results, we proposed a two-dimensional conceptual framework comprising a literacy dimension and a food system dimension. After reviewing 560 items and categorizing them into 18 domains (3 in the literacy dimension × 6 in the food system dimension), 32 questions were selected. As a result of the Delphi study, two items were deleted, and content validity was confirmed for the remaining 30 items (content validity ratio (CVR) = 0.92). Ten items were revised during the face validation process, and five items were excluded as a result of the EFA. The final food literacy questionnaire comprised 25 questions related to five factors: production, selection, preparation and cooking, intake, and disposal. Food literacy scores were positively associated with FN- and NQ-scores, confirming the reliability and criterion validity of the final questionnaire. The two-dimensional food literacy conceptual framework developed in this study systematically encompasses complex food literacy concepts by adding a food systems dimension (production, selection, preparation and cooking, intake, and disposal domain) to the existing literacy dimension (functional, interactive, and critical literacy domain). Based on this integrated conceptual framework, a 25-item food literacy questionnaire was developed and validated for practical use.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Blood Lead Concentrations and Mortality in Korean Adults: the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey with Mortality Follow-Up

Previous studies have consistently reported an increase in mortality risk, even at low levels of blood lead. The average blood lead concentration in the Korean population has steadily decreased but is still higher than that of developed countries. The purpose of this study was to examine the associations between mortality and blood lead concentrations for adults in Korea. We used the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2008–2013) linked Cause of Death data, which are followed by 2018. A total of 7308 subjects who aged over 30 at the baseline examination were included in the analyses. Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate the hazard ratios of mortality from non-accidental causes and cancer mortality. The estimated hazard ratios (95% CI) for comparison of the second and third tertile group with the lowest tertile group were 2.01 (1.20, 3.40) and 1.91 (1.13, 3.23) for non-accidental mortality and 3.42 (95% CI: 1.65, 7.08) and 2.27 (95% CI: 1.09, 4.70) for cancer mortality, respectively. The dose–response relationship also showed significant increase in the risk of mortality at blood lead level between 1.5 and 6.0 μg/dL. Our findings suggest that potent policies to lower lead exposure are required for the general Korean population.

Effect of chitinase-3-like protein 1 on glucose metabolism: In vitro skeletal muscle and human genetic association study

We investigated the effect of chitinase-3-like protein 1 (CHI3L1) on glucose metabolism and its underlying mechanisms in skeletal muscle cells, and evaluated whether the observed effects are relevant in humans. CHI3L1 was associated with increased glucose uptake in skeletal muscles in an AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK)-dependent manner, and with increased intracellular calcium levels via PAR2. The improvement in glucose metabolism observed in an intraperitoneal glucose tolerance test on male C57BL/6J mice supported this association. Inhibition of the CaMKK was associated with suppression of CHI3L1-mediated glucose uptake. Additionally, CHI3L1 was found to influence glucose uptake through the PI3K/AKT pathway. Results suggested that CHI3L1 stimulated the phosphorylation of AS160 and p38 MAPK downstream of AMPK and AKT, and the resultant GLUT4 translocation. In primary myoblast cells, stimulation of AMPK and AKT was observed in response to CHI3L1, underscoring the biological relevance of CHI3L1. CHI3L1 levels were elevated in cells under conditions that mimic exercise in vitro and in exercised mice in vivo, indicating that CHI3L1 is secreted during muscle contraction. Finally, similar associations between CHI3L1 and metabolic parameters were observed in humans alongside genotype associations between CHI3L1 and diabetes at the population level. CHI3L1 may be a potential therapeutic target for the treatment of diabetes.

Impact of dietary risk factors on cardiometabolic and cancer mortality burden among Korean adults: results from nationally representative repeated cross-sectional surveys 1998-2016

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Dietary factors are important contributors to cardiometabolic and cancer mortality. We examined the secular trends of nine dietary factors (fruits, vegetables, whole grains, nuts and seeds, milk, red meat, processed meat, sugar-sweetened beverages, and calcium) and the associated burdens of cardiometabolic and cancer mortality in Korea using representative cross-sectional survey data from 1998 to 2016.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Using dietary data from Korean adults aged ≥ 25 years in the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES), we characterized secular trends in intake levels. We performed comparative risk assessment to estimate the population attributable fraction and the number of cardiometabolic and cancer deaths attributable to each dietary factor.

RESULTS

A total of 231,148 cardiometabolic and cancer deaths were attributable to nine dietary risk factors in Korea from 1998 to 2016. Suboptimal intakes of fruits and whole grains were the leading contributors. Although the intakes of fruits, vegetables, and whole grains moderately improved over time, the intake levels in 2016 (192.1 g/d, 225.6 g/d, and 10.9 g/d, respectively) remained far below the optimal levels. Deaths attributable to the low intakes of nuts and seeds (4.5 g/d), calcium (440.5 mg/d), and milk (37.1 g/d) and the high intakes of red meat (54.7 g/d), processed meat (4.7 g/d), and sugar-sweetened beverages (33.0 g/d) increased since 1998. Compared with older age groups (≥ 45 years), more unfavorable changes in dietary patterns were observed in the younger population aged 25–44 years, including more sharply increased intakes of processed meat.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed improvement in the intakes of fruits, vegetables, and whole grains and unfavorable changes in the intakes of processed meat and sugar-sweetened beverages over the past few decades. Our data suggest that to reduce the chronic disease burden in Korea, more effective nutritional policies and interventions are needed to target these dietary risk factors.

Smoking May Affect Pulmonary Function through DNA Methylation: an Epigenome-Wide Association Study in Korean Men

Smoking is a risk factor for various disease outcomes and is one of the modifiers of DNA methylation. We aimed to identify smoking-related DNA methylation sites (CpG-sites) and test whether one identified CpG-site is associated with smoking-related traits and pulmonary function. We obtained DNA methylation data of 209 men from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study analyzed by Illumina's HumanMethylation450 array. To identify smoking-related DNA methylation sites, epigenome-wide association analysis of smoking status was conducted, adjusting for age, area, current drinking status, and body mass index. We assessed the association between smoking intensity and DNA methylation of cg05951221 (AHRR), the CpG showing the strongest largest difference in DNA methylation among the 5 hypomethylated CpGs in current smokers compared to never smokers. The association between DNA methylation and pulmonary function was examined longitudinally resulting in a positive association between DNA methylation and forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity, regardless of adjustment for smoking status. This suggests that DNA methylation associates with long-term pulmonary function. Our study contributes to explaining the relationship between smoking and pulmonary function via DNA methylation.

Association between dietary sodium intake and disease burden and mortality in Koreans between 1998 and 2016: The Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Sodium intake is positively associated with blood pressure, which may increase the risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Therefore, we assessed the disease burden of CVD attributable to sodium intakes above 2,000 mg/day and prospectively investigated the association between dietary/urinary sodium levels and the risk of all-cause and CVD-mortality using the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHNES).

SUBJECTS/METHODS

A total of 68,578 and 33,113 participants were included for comparative risk assessment (CRA) analysis and mortality analysis, respectively, and mean follow-up time for mortality was 5.4 years. CRA analysis was used to quantify attributable incidences of stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and deaths attributable to sodium intake between 1998 and 2016. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to determine the association between sodium intake and all-cause and CVD-mortality.

RESULTS

Mean dietary sodium intake decreased over time, reaching 3,647 mg/day in 2016. Similarly, the population attributable fractions of stroke and IHD, and the number of CVD-associated deaths attributable to high sodium intake/excretion also decreased. In terms of association with mortality, when participants were grouped into quartiles (Q) by energy-adjusted sodium intake, those in Q2 had a lower risk of all-cause mortality than those in Q1 with lower intakes. The risk of CVD-associated mortality was higher only in females with high sodium intake in Q4 than those in Q1.

CONCLUSIONS

This nationwide data indicates that, in line with previous studies of multiple cohorts, both low and high sodium intakes may be associated with an increased risk of mortality; therefore, the optimal sodium intake for Koreans needs to be revised.

The myokine meteorin-like (metrnl) improves glucose tolerance in both skeletal muscle cells and mice by targeting AMPKα2

Meteorin‐like (metrnl) is a recently identified adipomyokine that beneficially affects glucose metabolism; however, its underlying mechanism of action is not completely understood. We here show that the level of metrnl increases in vitro under electrical pulse stimulation and in vivo in exercised mice, suggesting that metrnl is secreted during muscle contractions. In addition, metrnl increases glucose uptake via the calcium‐dependent AMPKα2 pathway in skeletal muscle cells and increases the phosphorylation of HDAC5, a transcriptional repressor of GLUT4, in an AMPKα2‐dependent manner. Phosphorylated HDAC5 interacts with 14‐3‐3 proteins and sequesters them in the cytoplasm, resulting in the activation of GLUT4 transcription. An intraperitoneal injection of recombinant metrnl improved glucose tolerance in mice with high‐fat‐diet‐induced obesity or type 2 diabetes, but not in AMPK β1β2 muscle‐specific null mice. Metrnl improves glucose metabolism via AMPKα2 and is a promising therapeutic candidate for glucose‐related diseases such as type 2 diabetes.

Sex specific effect of ATPase inhibitory factor 1 on body weight: studies in high fat diet induced obese mice and genetic association studies in humans

BACKGROUND

Based on the metabolic effect of exogenous ATPase inhibitory factor 1 (IF1) on glucose metabolism, we tested whether IF1 treatment is effective in ameliorating weight gain and whether its effects are sex specific.

METHODS

HFD-fed C57BL/6 mice were treated with IF1 (5 mg/kg body weight, injected intraperitoneally). The underlying mechanisms of effect of IF1 on body weight were investigated in vitro and in vivo. Associations between genotypes of IF1 and obesity and relevant phenotype were further tested at the population level.

RESULTS

Chronic treatment with IF1 significantly decreased body weight gain by regulating food intake of HFD-fed male mice. IF1 activated the AKT/mTORC pathway and modulated the expression of appetite genes in the hypothalamus of HFD-fed male mice and its effect was confirmed in hypothalamic cell lines as well as hypothalamic primary cells. This required the interaction of IF1 with β-F1-ATPase on the plasma membrane of hypothalamic cells, which led to an increase in extracellular ATP production. In addition, IF1 treatment showed sympathetic nerve activation as measured by serum norepinephrine levels and UCP-1 expression in the subcutaneous fat of HFD-fed male mice. Notably, administration of recombinant IF1 to HFD-fed ovariectomized female mice showed remarkable reductions in food intake as well as body weight, which was not observed in wild-type 5-week female mice. Lastly, sex-specific genotype associations of IF1 with obesity prevalence and metabolic traits were demonstrated at the population level in humans. IF1 genetic variant (rs3767303) was significantly associated with lower prevalence of obesity and lower levels of body mass index, waist circumference, hemoglobin A1c, and glucose response area only in male participants.

CONCLUSION

IF1 is involved in weight regulation by controlling food intake and potentially sympathetic nerve activation in a sex-specific manner.

Association of circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels with hypertension and blood pressure values in Korean adults: A Mendelian randomization study on a subset of the Korea National Health and Nutrition Survey 2011-2012 population

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Lower circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] levels are associated with a higher risk of hypertension (HTN); however, it remains unclear whether the relationship is causal. We aimed to evaluate the causal effects of circulating 25(OH)D levels on the prevalence of HTN in the Korean population using the Mendelian randomization (MR) approach.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Epidemiological data, serum 25(OH)D data, and genomic DNA biospecimens were obtained from 2,591 participants, a subset of the study population in the Korea National Health and Nutrition Survey 2011-2012. Five 25(OH)D-related single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; DHCR7 rs12785878, CYP2R1 rs10741657, CYP2R1 rs12794714, CYP24A1 rs6013897, and GC rs2282679), identified a priori from genome-wide association studies, were used as instrument variables (IVs) for serum 25(OH)D levels. In the MR analysis, we performed IV analyses using the two-stage least squares method.

RESULTS

In the observational analysis, circulating 25(OH)D levels were found to be inversely associated with the HTN prevalence in ordinary least squares models (odds ratio: 0.97, 95% confidence interval: 0.96, 0.99) after adjusting for the potential confounders. There were differences in the circulating 25(OH)D levels across genotypes of individual SNPs. In the MR analysis, using individual SNPs as IVs, 25(OH)D levels were not associated with the HTN prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no association between genetically determined circulating 25(OH)D levels and HTN in Korean adults. Our results are listed owing to the relatively small sample size and possible weak instrument bias; therefore, further studies are needed to confirm these results.

ATP synthase inhibitory factor 1 (IF1), a novel myokine, regulates glucose metabolism by AMPK and Akt dual pathways

ATPase inhibitory factor 1 (IF1) is an ATP synthase-interacting protein that suppresses the hydrolysis activity of ATP synthase. In this study, we observed that the expression of IF1 was up-regulated in response to electrical pulse stimulation of skeletal muscle cells and in exercized mice and healthy men. IF1 stimulates glucose uptake via AMPK in skeletal muscle cells and primary cultured myoblasts. Reactive oxygen species and Rac family small GTPase 1 (Rac1) function in the upstream and downstream of AMPK, respectively, in IF1-mediated glucose uptake. In diabetic animal models, the administration of recombinant IF1 improved glucose tolerance and down-regulated blood glucose level. In addition, IF1 inhibits ATP hydrolysis by β-F1-ATPase in plasma membrane, thereby increasing extracellular ATP and activating the protein kinase B (Akt) pathway, ultimately leading to glucose uptake. Thus, we suggest that IF1 is a novel myokine and propose a mechanism by which AMPK and Akt contribute independently to IF1-mediated improvement of glucose tolerance impairment. These results demonstrate the importance of IF1 as a potential antidiabetic agent.-Lee, H. J., Moon, J., Chung, I., Chung, J. H., Park, C., Lee, J. O., Han, J. A., Kang, M. J., Yoo, E. H., Kwak, S.-Y., Jo, G., Park, W., Park, J., Kim, K. M., Lim, S., Ngoei, K. R. W., Ling, N. X. Y., Oakhill, J. S., Galic, S., Murray-Segal, L., Kemp, B. E., Mantzoros, C. S., Krauss, R. M., Shin, M.-J., Kim, H. S. ATP synthase inhibitory factor 1 (IF1), a novel myokine, regulates glucose metabolism by AMPK and Akt dual pathways.

Food Literacy in South Korea: Operational Definition and Measurement Issues

Since chronic diseases have emerged as a major cause of death worldwide, people has been exposed to large amounts of information on healthy eating practices that are important aspects of its prevention and management. Food literacy, the functional, interactive, and critical ability to manage dietary information with the aim of improving health, is of global interest. In South Korea (hereafter Korea), there is currently a lack of food literacy research, despite its pertinence for the development of public health policies that are tailored to recipients' ability to understand and address health and nutrition issues. In this study, the research trend and policy implications of food literacy are derived through reviewing preceding studies related to food literacy in Korea and elsewhere. Existing literature on food literacy in Korea placed much emphasis on the functional ability of food literacy. Future research on the operational definitions of interactive and critical food literacy and their health effects in Korea is necessary. In addition, there is a lack of research on the development and validation of measurement tools that evaluate integrative concepts of food literacy. To accurately examine the relationships among food literacy, diet, and health, standardized measurement tools that can comprehensively evaluate food literacy frameworks for various Korean sub-population groups should be developed. Based on such future studies, an investigation of health promotion programs or policies on reducing the cognitive burden of food literacy would contribute to improving heathy eating practices in Korea.

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Stroke is a leading cause of mortality and disability worldwide and the economic costs of treatment and post-stroke care are substantial. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic, comparable method of quantifying health loss by disease, age, sex, year, and location to provide information to health systems and policy makers on more than 300 causes of disease and injury, including stroke. The results presented here are the estimates of burden due to overall stroke and ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke from GBD 2016.

METHODS

We report estimates and corresponding uncertainty intervals (UIs), from 1990 to 2016, for incidence, prevalence, deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). DALYs were generated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Cause-specific mortality was estimated using an ensemble modelling process with vital registration and verbal autopsy data as inputs. Non-fatal estimates were generated using Bayesian meta-regression incorporating data from registries, scientific literature, administrative records, and surveys. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator generated using educational attainment, lagged distributed income, and total fertility rate, was used to group countries into quintiles.

FINDINGS

In 2016, there were 5·5 million (95% UI 5·3 to 5·7) deaths and 116·4 million (111·4 to 121·4) DALYs due to stroke. The global age-standardised mortality rate decreased by 36·2% (-39·3 to -33·6) from 1990 to 2016, with decreases in all SDI quintiles. Over the same period, the global age-standardised DALY rate declined by 34·2% (-37·2 to -31·5), also with decreases in all SDI quintiles. There were 13·7 million (12·7 to 14·7) new stroke cases in 2016. Global age-standardised incidence declined by 8·1% (-10·7 to -5·5) from 1990 to 2016 and decreased in all SDI quintiles except the middle SDI group. There were 80·1 million (74·1 to 86·3) prevalent cases of stroke globally in 2016; 41·1 million (38·0 to 44·3) in women and 39·0 million (36·1 to 42·1) in men.

INTERPRETATION

Although age-standardised mortality rates have decreased sharply from 1990 to 2016, the decrease in age-standardised incidence has been less steep, indicating that the burden of stroke is likely to remain high. Planned updates to future GBD iterations include generating separate estimates for subarachnoid haemorrhage and intracerebral haemorrhage, generating estimates of transient ischaemic attack, and including atrial fibrillation as a risk factor.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Difference in the Gut Microbiome between Ovariectomy-Induced Obesity and Diet-Induced Obesity

During menopausal transition, the imbalance of estrogen causes body weight gain. Although gut microbiome dysbiosis has been reported in postmenopausal obesity, it is not clear whether there is any difference in the microbiome profile between dietary-induced obesity and postmenopausal obesity. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed intestinal samples from ovariectomized mice and compared them with those of mice with high-fat diet-induced obesity. To further evaluate the presence of menopause-specific bacteria-gene interactions, we also analyzed the liver transcriptome. Investigation of the 16S rRNA V3-V4 region amplicon sequence profile revealed that menopausal obesity and dietary obesity resulted in similar gut microbiome structures. However, Bifidobacterium animalis was exclusively observed in the ovariectomized mice, which indicated that menopausal obesity resulted in a different intestinal microbiome than dietary obesity. Additionally, several bacterial taxa (Dorea species, Akkermansia muciniphila, and Desulfovibrio species) were found when the ovariectomized mice were treated with a high-fat diet. A significant correlation between the above-mentioned menopause-specific bacteria and the genes for female hormone metabolism was also observed, suggesting the possibility of bacteria-gene interactions in menopausal obesity. Our findings revealed the characteristics of the intestinal microbiome in menopausal obesity in the mouse model, which is very similar to the dietary obesity microbiome but having its own diagnostic bacteria.

The association between genetic variants of angiopoietin-like 3 and risk of diabetes mellitus is modified by dietary factors in Koreans

The role of angiopoietin-like 3 (ANGPTL3) in blood lipid levels, cardiovascular disease risk, and glucose metabolism has received wide attention. This study aimed to examine whether rs11207997 in ANGPTL3 is associated with a 10-year risk of diabetes mellitus (DM) and if the association is modified by the consumption of certain food groups or nutrients. A prospective cohort study was designed using the Ansan-Ansung data of the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (n = 7,358; age ≥40 years at baseline). Participants with the T allele of rs11207997, particularly TT homozygotes, had lower triglyceride (TG) and total cholesterol levels than those with CC. There was no association with fasting blood glucose or other biochemical parameters. ANGPTL3 mRNA was positively associated with circulating TG levels and blood pressure (all p < 0.05). Cox proportional hazard models showed that the rs11207997 T allele is associated with a lower risk of DM after adjusting for covariates (hazard ratio: 0.90, 95% confidence interval: 0.812-0.998, p = 0.046). Furthermore, the association between rs11207997 and the risk of DM was modified by dietary factors. These associations were no longer statistically significant when additionally adjusted for baseline TG, a potential mediator. Our data suggest that genetic variation of rs11207997 in the ANGPTL3 gene is associated with risk of DM, possibly through contributing to a lifelong set point of TG.

Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016

BACKGROUND

The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate.

RESULTS

The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation.

CONCLUSIONS

In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).

Genotype effects of glucokinase regulator on lipid profiles and glycemic status are modified by circulating calcium levels: results from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the glucokinase regulator (GCKR) are associated with major cardiovascular risk factors (ie, lipid profile and glycemic status). Recently, GCKR was shown to be related to circulating calcium levels involved in lipid and glycemic controls. Therefore, we hypothesized that GCKR SNPs are associated with major cardiovascular risk factors in the Korean population, and the association is modified by circulating calcium levels. Epidemiological data and GCKR SNPs (rs780093T>C, rs780094 T>C, and rs1260326 T>C) were collected from a subset of Ansung-Ansan cohort in the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (n = 7815). Consistent with the results of previous studies, GCKR SNPs were significantly associated with decreased total cholesterol and triglyceride levels and increased glucose levels and insulin resistance. Minor C allele carriers, particularly CC homozygotes, had lower serum calcium levels than TT homozygotes for all 3 SNPs. Particularly, the effect of GCKR SNPs on total cholesterol, triglyceride, fasting glucose, and insulin resistance was apparent when serum calcium levels were in normal range (8.8-10.1 mg/dL). When serum calcium levels were high (≥10.2 mg/dL), CC homozygotes also had significantly lower triglyceride and higher fasting glucose than TT homozygotes. However, the associations were not observed when serum calcium levels were low (<8.8 mg/dL). In conclusion, GCKR SNPs are associated with lipid profiles and glycemic status in the Korean population, and the genetic effect is modified by basal circulating calcium levels, particularly in normal or high ranges. It provides important information for individualized prevention and management of cardiovascular risk associated with GCKR SNPs.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations.

METHODS

We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.

FINDINGS

In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low.

INTERPRETATION

By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2016: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

IMPORTANCE

The increasing burden due to cancer and other noncommunicable diseases poses a threat to human development, which has resulted in global political commitments reflected in the Sustainable Development Goals as well as the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Action Plan on Non-Communicable Diseases. To determine if these commitments have resulted in improved cancer control, quantitative assessments of the cancer burden are required.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the burden for 29 cancer groups over time to provide a framework for policy discussion, resource allocation, and research focus.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

Cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were evaluated for 195 countries and territories by age and sex using the Global Burden of Disease study estimation methods. Levels and trends were analyzed over time, as well as by the Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Changes in incident cases were categorized by changes due to epidemiological vs demographic transition.

FINDINGS

In 2016, there were 17.2 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.9 million deaths. Cancer cases increased by 28% between 2006 and 2016. The smallest increase was seen in high SDI countries. Globally, population aging contributed 17%; population growth, 12%; and changes in age-specific rates, -1% to this change. The most common incident cancer globally for men was prostate cancer (1.4 million cases). The leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs was tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (1.2 million deaths and 25.4 million DALYs). For women, the most common incident cancer and the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs was breast cancer (1.7 million incident cases, 535 000 deaths, and 14.9 million DALYs). In 2016, cancer caused 213.2 million DALYs globally for both sexes combined. Between 2006 and 2016, the average annual age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 130 of 195 countries or territories, and the average annual age-standardized death rates decreased within that timeframe in 143 of 195 countries or territories.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Large disparities exist between countries in cancer incidence, deaths, and associated disability. Scaling up cancer prevention and ensuring universal access to cancer care are required for health equity and to fulfill the global commitments for noncommunicable disease and cancer control.

Association among genetic variants in the vitamin D pathway and circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels in Korean adults: results from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2011-2012

Vitamin D deficiency affects >60% of the Korean population. Recent reports in Caucasian, African American, and Chinese populations indicate an association between vitamin D status and related single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), but specific associations differ among study populations. We investigated the relationship between five SNPs involved in the vitamin D metabolic pathway (DHCR7 rs12785878, GC rs2282679, CYP2R1 rs12794714, CYP2R1 rs10741657, and CYP24A1 rs6013897) and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] status in Koreans using the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, a nationwide database. Whether the association was modified by demographic and lifestyle factors, including sex, body mass index (BMI), smoking status, drinking status, physical activity, and sun exposure, were also investigated. The results showed the serum level of 25(OH)D was associated with rs12785878, rs2282679, and rs12794714 genotypes, but not with rs10741657 or rs6013897. The genetic risk score (GRS) calculated by summing the number of alleles of these 5 SNPs was associated with low circulating levels of 25(OH)D. However, the negative association between 25(OH)D and GRS was modified by obesity and sun exposure. Specifically, negative associations between 25(OH)D and GRS were present in adults with lower BMI (<25 kg/m²) and longer sun exposure time (≥2 h/day). In conclusion, common variants of vitamin D-related SNPs are associated with vitamin D status in Koreans, and this genetic effect was masked when BMI ≥25 kg/m² or sun exposure <2 h/day. Additionally, seasonal variation must be considered in future studies among Koreans.

Genetic Association between Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Levels and Lung Function in Korean Men and Women: Data from KNHANES 2011⁻2012

The association between single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the vitamin D metabolic pathway and lung function is unknown. We examined the association between five SNPs on DHCR7, GC, CYP2R1, and CYP24A1 along with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels and lung function in older Korean men (n = 758) and women (n = 837). Lung function was determined by forced vital capacity (FVC) and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) from the data in the Korea Nutrition and Health Examination Survey 2011–2012. Genetic risk score (GRS) was calculated by the number of 25(OH)D-decreasing alleles of the five SNPs. Our results showed that increases in GRS were associated with reduced 25(OH)D levels (p < 0.05 for both sexes). In the entire population, FVC and FEV1 were associated with both GRS and 25(OH)D levels. In women, FVC and FEV1 were negatively associated with GRS (β-coefficient (95% CI): −0.022 (−0.039, −0.005) and −0.020 (−0.035, −0.005), respectively; both p < 0.05), but not with 25(OH)D. However, in men, FVC and FEV1 were positively associated with 25(OH)D (β-coefficient (95% CI): 0.008 (0.001, 0.016) and 0.008 (0.002, 0.015), respectively; both p < 0.05), but not with GRS. In conclusion, lung function was associated with genetic variation in Korean women and with 25(OH)D in Korean men.

Medium-Chain Acylcarnitines Are Associated With Cardioembolic Stroke and Stroke Recurrence

Objective—

Stroke is a heterogeneous disease with diverse causes, which affect the risk of recurrence. This study aimed to identify novel biomarkers that are clinically relevant to the diagnosis of cardioembolic stroke (CE) and the prediction of stroke recurrence using metabolomics.

Approach and Results—

We obtained blood samples and clinical data from a consecutively registered, hospital-based acute stroke registry and from healthy controls. Mass-spectrometry–based profiling was performed, and several metabolomic signatures were selected for the discrimination of CE and stroke recurrence, coupled with multivariate statistical analysis. Finally, 190 acute ischemic stroke participants (43 CE patients and 147 non-CE patients) and 30 control participants were included. We obtained 29 metabolomics signatures, and of these, 2 medium-chain acylcarnitines (decanoylcarnitine and octanoylcarnitine) were selected as independent discriminants for CE (odds ratio, 2.839; 95% CI, 1.241–6.493 for decanoylcarnitine; odds ratio, 2.839; 95% CI, 1.241–6.493 for octanoylcarnitine). Elevated medium-chain acylcarnitines were also associated with a higher risk of stroke recurrence (hazard ratio, 3.767; 95% CI, 1.276–11.117 for decanoylcarnitine; hazard ratio, 5.519; 95% CI, 1.22–18.781 for octanoylcarnitine). The levels of decanoylcarnitine and octanoylcarnitine were correlated as known surrogate markers of CE. The levels of decanoylcarnitine and octanoylcarnitine were significantly higher in stroke patients with a high-risk potential of cardioembolism than in those with low or intermediate risk.

Conclusions—

Metabolomics provided an improved understanding of CE pathogenesis and stroke recurrence. We have identified decanoylcarnitine and octanoylcarnitine as novel biomarkers for CE and stroke recurrence.

Diagnosis of Critical Illness Myopathy After Liver Transplantation and Muscle Condition Monitoring: A Case Report

BACKGROUND

Intensive care unit-acquired weakness (ICUAW) can occur after liver transplantation. Early diagnosis of ICUAW and monitoring of muscle condition during rehabilitation are helpful in improving functional recovery.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

A 47-year-old man with liver cirrhosis developed limb weakness after liver transplantation. The patient had a Medical Research Council sum score of 2 weeks post-liver transplantation with marked proximal limb weakness. Direct muscle stimulation was performed on the right tibialis anterior muscle; the nerve-to-muscle ratio of compound muscle action potentials was 0.96, which indicated critical illness myopathy. Fatigue analysis using surface electromyography was performed 4 times after liver transplantation.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

The maximal voluntary contraction tended to increase during rehabilitation, whereas the percentage of maximal voluntary contraction tended to decrease, indicating that muscle strength was increased. The fatigue index gradually decreased, showing that muscle endurance had improved along with strength. Muscle fatigue can be evaluated during rehabilitation using surface electromyography to prevent damage of the impaired muscle and to control exercise intensity. Early diagnosis of ICUAW and evaluation of muscle fatigue during rehabilitation will ensure a better prognosis for patients with ICUAW.

Glycated Hemoglobin and Cancer Risk in Korean Adults: Results from Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study

The purpose of this study was to test whether elevated glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels are associated with cancer incidence in the Korean population. In cohorts of the Korea Genome and Epidemiology Study (KoGES) consortium, we tested whether plasma levels of HbA1c were associated with all-site cancer incidence in 7,822 participants without any known history of cancer or diabetes. Cancer developed in 117 participants during the follow-up period. Subjects were subdivided into 3 categories according observed levels of HbA1c (< 5.7%, low; ≥ 5.7% and < 6.5%, mid; and ≥ 6.5%, high). The adjusted hazard ratio for all-site cancer was 3.03 (95% confidence intervals, 1.54–5.96) for the high HbA1c group relative to the low HbA1c group after adjusting for covariates. Higher circulating HbA1c levels were associated with an increased risk of all-site cancer in Korean population.

Serum metabolite profile associated with incident type 2 diabetes in Koreans: findings from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study

The identification of metabolic alterations in type 2 diabetes (T2D) is useful for elucidating the pathophysiology of the disease and in classifying high-risk individuals. In this study, we prospectively examined the associations between serum metabolites and T2D risk in a Korean community-based cohort (the Ansan-Ansung cohort). Data were obtained from 1,939 participants with available metabolic profiles and without diabetes, cardiovascular disease, or cancer at baseline. The acylcarnitine, amino acid, amine, and phospholipid levels in fasting serum samples were analyzed by targeted metabolomics. During the 8-year follow-up period, we identified 282 cases of incident T2D. Of all metabolites measured, 22 were significantly associated with T2D risk. Specifically, serum levels of alanine, arginine, isoleucine, proline, tyrosine, valine, hexose and five phosphatidylcholine diacyls were positively associated with T2D risk, whereas lyso-phosphatidylcholine acyl C17:0 and C18:2 and other glycerophospholipids were negatively associated with T2D risk. The associated metabolites were further correlated with T2D-relevant risk factors such as insulin resistance and triglyceride indices. In addition, a healthier diet (as measured by the modified recommended food score) was independently associated with T2D risk. Alterations of metabolites such as amino acids and choline-containing phospholipids appear to be associated with T2D risk in Korean adults.

Voglibose-mediated alterations in neurometabolomic profiles in the hypothalamus of high-fat diet-fed mice

The alpha-glucosidase inhibitor voglibose (VO) was recently reported to have a protective effect against weight gain as well as affect various metabolic changes related to food intake and gut-brain signaling. We hypothesized that VO prevents weight gain by altering neurometabolome profiles in the hypothalamus to reduce food intake. To test this hypothesis, we assessed metabolite profiles in the hypothalamus of standard diet- or high-fat (HF) diet-fed mice in the absence or presence of VO. In total, 29 male C57BL/6 mice were divided into 3 groups: (1) lean control, (2) HF, and (3) HF + VO. Vehicle or VO was administered for 12 weeks. The results showed that there were alterations in levels of metabolites across several metabolic pathways in the hypothalamus. VO treatment increased levels of many amino acids including arginine, glutamine, histidine, isoleucine, leucine, methionine, phenylalanine, proline, serine, threonine, tryptophan, tyrosine, and valine in the hypothalamus. In addition, levels of 2-hydroxy-2-methyl-butyric acid in the hypothalamus were significantly increased after VO administration in HF diet-fed mice. Among lipid metabolites, levels of fatty acids were higher in the hypothalamus of VO-treated mice than in that of HF diet-fed mice. In terms of the energy status, the ATP/ADP ratio was higher in the hypothalamus of VO-treated mice (P < 0.001), thereby indicating an energy surplus. In conclusion, VO supplementation altered metabolite profiles in the hypothalamus to enhance catabolism, which is possibly responsible for the hypophagic effect of VO in HF diet-fed mice.

Apolipoprotein A5 3'-UTR variants and cardiometabolic traits in Koreans: results from the Korean genome and epidemiology study and the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to test the association between APOA5 3'-UTR variants (rs662799) and cardiometabolic traits in Koreans.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

For this study, epidemiological data, Apolipoprotein A5 (APOA5) genotype information, and lymphoblastoid cell line (LCL) biospecimens from a subset of the Ansung-Ansan cohort within the Korean Genome and Epidemiology study (KoGES-ASAS; n = 7,704) as well as epidemiological data along with genomic DNA biospecimens of participants from a subset of the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES 2011-12; n = 2,235) were obtained. APOA5 mRNA expression was also measured.

RESULTS

APOA5 rs662799 genotype distributions in both the KoGES-ASAS and KNHANES groups were 50.6% for TT, 41.3% for TC, and 8.1% for CC, which are similar to those in previous reports. In both groups, minor C allele carriers, particularly subjects with CC homozygosity, had lower high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and higher triglyceride levels than TT homozygotes. Linear regression analysis showed that the minor C allele significantly contributed to reduction of circulating HDL cholesterol levels [β = −2.048, P < 0.001; β = −2.199, P < 0.001] as well as elevation of circulating triglyceride levels [β = 0.053, P < 0.001; β = 0.066, P < 0.001] in both the KoGES-ASAS and KNHANES groups. In addition, higher expression levels of APOA5 in LCLs of 64 healthy individuals were negatively associated with body mass index (r = −0.277, P = 0.027) and circulating triglyceride level (r = −0.340, P = 0.006) but not significantly correlated with circulating HDL cholesterol level. On the other hand, we observed no significant difference in the mRNA level of APOA5 according to APOA5 rs662799 polymorphisms.

CONCLUSIONS

The C allele of APOA5 rs662799 was found to be significantly associated with cardiometabolic traits in a large Korean population from the KoGES-ASAS and KNHANES. The effect of this genotype may be associated with post-transcriptional regulation, which deserves further experimental confirmation.

Trends in device utilization ratios in intensive care units over 10-year period in South Korea: device utilization ratio as a new aspect of surveillance

BACKGROUND

Device-associated infection (DAI) is an important issue related to patient safety. It is important to reduce unnecessary device utilization in order to decrease DAI rates.

AIM

To investigate the time trend of device utilization ratios (DURs) of voluntarily participating hospitals, collected over a 10-year period through the Korean National Healthcare-associated Infections Surveillance System (KONIS).

METHODS

DURs from 2006 to 2015 in 190 intensive care units (ICUs) participating in KONIS were included in this study. DURs were calculated as the ratio of device-days to patient-days. The pooled incidences of DAIs and DURs were calculated for each year of participation, and the year-wise trends were analysed.

FINDINGS

Year-wise ventilator utilization ratio (V-DUR) increased significantly from 0.40 to 0.41 (F = 6.27, P < 0.01), urinary catheter utilization ratio (U-DUR) increased non-significantly from 0.83 to 0.84 (F = 1.66, P = 0.10), and C-line utilization ratio (CL-DUR) decreased non-significantly from 0.55 to 0.51 (F = 1.62, P = 0.11). In the subgroup analysis, 'medical ICU' (F = 2.79, P < 0.01) and 'hospital with >900 beds' (F = 3.07, P < 0.01) were associated with the significant increase in V-DUR.

CONCLUSION

In Korea, V-DUR showed a significant, year-wise increasing trend. The trends for U-DUR and CL-DUR showed no significant decrease. Efforts are required to ensure the reduction of DURs.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.

METHODS

We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined.

FINDINGS

Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124·1 million DALYs [95% UI 111·2 million to 137·0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122·2 million DALYs [110·3 million to 133·3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83·0 million DALYs [78·3 million to 87·7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89·9 million DALYs [80·9 million to 98·2 million]), high body-mass index (64·8 million DALYs [44·4 million to 87·6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63·8 million DALYs [53·2 million to 76·3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9·3% (6·9-11·6) decline in deaths and a 10·8% (8·3-13·1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14·9% (12·7-17·5) of deaths and 6·2% (3·9-8·7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of deaths and 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27·3% (24·9-29·7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks.

INTERPRETATION

Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030.

METHODS

We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment.

FINDINGS

Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9-66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6-88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1-87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8-87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6-11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8-13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5-13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past.

INTERPRETATION

GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.