The coevolutionary mosaic of bat betacoronavirus emergence risk

Pathogen evolution is one of the least predictable components of disease emergence, particularly in nature. Here, building on principles established by the geographic mosaic theory of coevolution, we develop a quantitative, spatially explicit framework for mapping the evolutionary risk of viral emergence. Driven by interest in diseases like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), and Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), we examine the global biogeography of bat-origin betacoronaviruses, and find that coevolutionary principles suggest geographies of risk that are distinct from the hotspots and coldspots of host richness. Further, our framework helps explain patterns like a unique pool of merbecoviruses in the Neotropics, a recently discovered lineage of divergent nobecoviruses in Madagascar, and-most importantly-hotspots of diversification in southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East that correspond to the site of previous zoonotic emergence events. Our framework may help identify hotspots of future risk that have also been previously overlooked, like West Africa and the Indian subcontinent, and may more broadly help researchers understand how host ecology shapes the evolution and diversity of pandemic threats.

Human movement and transmission dynamics early in Ebola outbreaks

Human movement drives the transmission and spread of communicable pathogens. It is especially influential for emerging pathogens when population immunity is low and spillover events are rare. We digitized serial printed maps to measure transportation networks (roads and rivers) in Central and West Africa as proxies for population mobility to assess relationships between movement and Ebola transmission. We find that the lengths of roads and rivers in close proximity to spillover sites at or near the time of spillover events are significantly correlated with the number of EVD cases, particularly in the first 100 days of each outbreak. Early management and containment efforts along transportation networks may be beneficial in mitigation during the early days of transmission and spatial spread for Ebola outbreaks.

A framework for understanding and predicting orthohantavirus functional traits

Orthohantaviruses present a global public health threat; there are 58 distinct viruses currently recognized and case fatality of pathogenic orthohantaviruses ranges from <0.1% to 50%. An Old World versus New World dichotomy is frequently applied to distinguish human diseases caused by orthohantaviruses. However, this geographic grouping masks the importance of phylogeny and virus-host ecology in shaping orthohantavirus traits, especially since related arvicoline rodents and their orthohantaviruses are found in both regions. We argue that orthohantaviruses can be separated into three phylogenetically based rodent host groups with differences in key functional traits, including human disease, transmission route, and virus-host fidelity. This framework can help understand and predict traits of under-studied and newly discovered orthohantaviruses and guide public health and biosafety policy.

Viral genomic features predict orthopoxvirus reservoir hosts

Orthopoxviruses (OPVs), including the causative agents of smallpox and mpox have led to devastating outbreaks in human populations worldwide. However, the discontinuation of smallpox vaccination, which also provides cross-protection against related OPVs, has diminished global immunity to OPVs more broadly. We apply machine learning models incorporating both host ecological and viral genomic features to predict likely reservoirs of OPVs. We demonstrate that incorporating viral genomic features in addition to host ecological traits enhanced the accuracy of potential OPV host predictions, highlighting the importance of host-virus molecular interactions in predicting potential host species. We identify hotspots for geographic regions rich with potential OPV hosts in parts of southeast Asia, equatorial Africa, and the Amazon, revealing high overlap between regions predicted to have a high number of potential OPV host species and those with the lowest smallpox vaccination coverage, indicating a heightened risk for the emergence or establishment of zoonotic OPVs. Our findings can be used to target wildlife surveillance, particularly related to concerns about mpox establishment beyond its historical range.

Network embedding unveils the hidden interactions in the mammalian virome

Predicting host-virus interactions is fundamentally a network science problem. We develop a method for bipartite network prediction that combines a recommender system (linear filtering) with an imputation algorithm based on low-rank graph embedding. We test this method by applying it to a global database of mammal-virus interactions and thus show that it makes biologically plausible predictions that are robust to data biases. We find that the mammalian virome is under-characterized anywhere in the world. We suggest that future virus discovery efforts could prioritize the Amazon Basin (for its unique coevolutionary assemblages) and sub-Saharan Africa (for its poorly characterized zoonotic reservoirs). Graph embedding of the imputed network improves predictions of human infection from viral genome features, providing a shortlist of priorities for laboratory studies and surveillance. Overall, our study indicates that the global structure of the mammal-virus network contains a large amount of information that is recoverable, and this provides new insights into fundamental biology and disease emergence.

Severe acute respiratory disease in American mink experimentally infected with SARS-CoV-2

An animal model that fully recapitulates severe COVID-19 presentation in humans has been a top priority since the discovery of SARS-CoV-2 in 2019. Although multiple animal models are available for mild to moderate clinical disease, models that develop severe disease are still needed. Mink experimentally infected with SARS-CoV-2 developed severe acute respiratory disease, as evident by clinical respiratory disease, radiological, and histological changes. Virus was detected in nasal, oral, rectal, and fur swabs. Deep sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 from oral swabs and lung tissue samples showed repeated enrichment for a mutation in the gene encoding nonstructural protein 6 in open reading frame 1ab. Together, these data indicate that American mink develop clinical features characteristic of severe COVID-19 and, as such, are uniquely suited to test viral countermeasures.

Zaire ebolavirus surveillance near the Bikoro region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo during the 2018 outbreak reveals presence of seropositive bats

On the 8th of May, 2018, an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) was declared, originating in the Bikoro region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) near the border with neighboring Republic of the Congo (ROC). Frequent trade and migration occur between DRC and ROC-based communities residing along the Congo River. In June 2018, a field team was deployed to determine whether Zaire ebolavirus (Ebola virus (EBOV)) was contemporaneously circulating in local bats at the human-animal interface in ROC near the Bikoro EVD outbreak. Samples were collected from bats in the Cuvette and Likouala departments, ROC, bordering the Équateur Province in DRC where the Bikoro EVD outbreak was first detected. EBOV genomic material was not detected in bat-derived samples by targeted quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction or by family-level consensus polymerase chain reaction; however, serological data suggests recent exposure to EBOV in bats in the region. We collected serum from 144 bats in the Cuvette department with 6.9% seropositivity against the EBOV glycoprotein and 14.3% seropositivity for serum collected from 27 fruit bats and one Molossinae in the Likouala department. We conclude that proactive investment in longitudinal sampling for filoviruses at the human-animal interface, coupled with ecological investigations are needed to identify EBOV wildlife reservoirs.

Imported SARS-COV-2 Variants of Concern Drove Spread of Infections Across Kenya During the Second Year of the Pandemic

Background

Using classical and genomic epidemiology, we tracked the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya over 23 months to determine the impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants on its progression.

Methods

SARS-CoV-2 surveillance and testing data were obtained from the Kenya Ministry of Health, collected daily from 306 health facilities. COVID-19-associated fatality data were also obtained from these health facilities and communities. Whole SARS-CoV-2 genome sequencing were carried out on 1241 specimens.

Results

Over the pandemic duration (March 2020 - January 2022) Kenya experienced five waves characterized by attack rates (AR) of between 65.4 and 137.6 per 100,000 persons, and intra-wave case fatality ratios (CFR) averaging 3.5%, two-fold higher than the national average COVID-19 associated CFR. The first two waves that occurred before emergence of global variants of concerns (VoC) had lower AR (65.4 and 118.2 per 100,000). Waves 3, 4, and 5 that occurred during the second year were each dominated by multiple introductions each, of Alpha (74.9% genomes), Delta (98.7%), and Omicron (87.8%) VoCs, respectively. During this phase, government-imposed restrictions failed to alleviate pandemic progression, resulting in higher attack rates spread across the country.

Conclusions

The emergence of Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants was a turning point that resulted in widespread and higher SARS-CoV-2 infections across the country.

Mammal virus diversity estimates are unstable due to accelerating discovery effort

Host-virus association data underpin research into the distribution and eco-evolutionary correlates of viral diversity and zoonotic risk across host species. However, current knowledge of the wildlife virome is inherently constrained by historical discovery effort, and there are concerns that the reliability of ecological inference from host-virus data may be undermined by taxonomic and geographical sampling biases. Here, we evaluate whether current estimates of host-level viral diversity in wild mammals are stable enough to be considered biologically meaningful, by analysing a comprehensive dataset of discovery dates of 6571 unique mammal host-virus associations between 1930 and 2018. We show that virus discovery rates in mammal hosts are either constant or accelerating, with little evidence of declines towards viral richness asymptotes, even in highly sampled hosts. Consequently, inference of relative viral richness across host species has been unstable over time, particularly in bats, where intensified surveillance since the early 2000s caused a rapid rearrangement of species' ranked viral richness. Our results illustrate that comparative inference of host-level virus diversity across mammals is highly sensitive to even short-term changes in sampling effort. We advise caution to avoid overinterpreting patterns in current data, since it is feasible that an analysis conducted today could draw quite different conclusions than one conducted only a decade ago.

Surface‒Aerosol Stability and Pathogenicity of Diverse Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Strains, 2012‒2018

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infects humans and dromedary camels and is responsible for an ongoing outbreak of severe respiratory illness in humans in the Middle East. Although some mutations found in camel-derived MERS-CoV strains have been characterized, most natural variation found across MERS-CoV isolates remains unstudied. We report on the environmental stability, replication kinetics, and pathogenicity of several diverse isolates of MERS-CoV, as well as isolates of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, to serve as a basis of comparison with other stability studies. Although most MERS-CoV isolates had similar stability and pathogenicity in our experiments, the camel-derived isolate C/KSA/13 had reduced surface stability, and another camel isolate, C/BF/15, had reduced pathogenicity in a small animal model. These results suggest that although betacoronaviruses might have similar environmental stability profiles, individual variation can influence this phenotype, underscoring the need for continual global viral surveillance.

The future of zoonotic risk prediction

In the light of the urgency raised by the COVID-19 pandemic, global investment in wildlife virology is likely to increase, and new surveillance programmes will identify hundreds of novel viruses that might someday pose a threat to humans. To support the extensive task of laboratory characterization, scientists may increasingly rely on data-driven rubrics or machine learning models that learn from known zoonoses to identify which animal pathogens could someday pose a threat to global health. We synthesize the findings of an interdisciplinary workshop on zoonotic risk technologies to answer the following questions. What are the prerequisites, in terms of open data, equity and interdisciplinary collaboration, to the development and application of those tools? What effect could the technology have on global health? Who would control that technology, who would have access to it and who would benefit from it? Would it improve pandemic prevention? Could it create new challenges? This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.

Role of Wildlife in Emergence of Ebola Virus in Kaigbono (Likati), Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2017

After the 2017 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in Likati, a district in northern Democratic Republic of the Congo, we sampled small mammals from the location where the primary case-patient presumably acquired the infection. None tested positive for EBOV RNA or antibodies against EBOV, highlighting the ongoing challenge in detecting animal reservoirs for EBOV.

Development and validation of portable, field-deployable Ebola virus point-of-encounter diagnostic assay for wildlife surveillance

Early detection of Ebola virus spillover into wildlife is crucial for rapid response. We developed and validated a portable, cold-chain independent Ebola virus RT-qPCR assay.

METHODS

The field syringe-based RNA extraction method was compared with a conventional laboratory-based spin-column RNA extraction method. Next, the qPCR efficiency and limit of detection of the assay was compared to standard laboratory-based reagents and equipment. The specificity of the assay was confirmed by testing against multiple Zaire Ebolavirus (EBOV) variants and other ebolavirus species. Lastly, swabs from an EBOV-infected non-human primate carcass, stored at environmental conditions mimicking central and west Africa, were analyzed to mimic in field conditions.

RESULTS

The syringe-based RNA extraction method performed comparably to a standard laboratory spin-column-based method. The developed assay was comparable in sensitivity and specificity to standard laboratory-based diagnostic assays. The assay specifically detected EBOV and not any of the other tested ebolavirus species, including Reston ebolavirus, Sudan ebolavirus, Bundibugyo ebolavirus, and Tai Forrest ebolavirus. Notably, the assays limit of detection for EBOV isolates were all below 4 genome copies/μL. The assay was able to detect EBOV in oral, nasal, thoracic cavity, and conjunctiva swabs obtained from an infected non-human primate.

CONCLUSION

We developed a field-based Ebolavirus assay which is comparable in sensitivity and specificity to laboratory-based assays. Currently, the assay is being incorporated into wildlife carcass surveillance in the Republic of the Congo and is being adapted for other infectious disease agents.

Serological Evidence for Henipa-like and Filo-like Viruses in Trinidad Bats

Bat-borne zoonotic pathogens belonging to the family Paramxyoviridae, including Nipah and Hendra viruses, and the family Filoviridae, including Ebola and Marburg viruses, can cause severe disease and high mortality rates on spillover into human populations. Surveillance efforts for henipaviruses and filoviruses have been largely restricted to the Old World; however, recent studies suggest a potentially broader distribution for henipaviruses and filoviruses than previously recognized. In the current study, we screened for henipaviruses and filoviruses in New World bats collected across 4 locations in Trinidad near the coast of Venezuela. Bat tissue samples were screened using previously established reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction assays. Serum were screened using a multiplex immunoassay to detect antibodies reactive with the envelope glycoprotein of viruses in the genus Henipavirus and the family Filoviridae. Serum samples were also screened by means of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for antibodies reactive with Nipah G and F glycoproteins. Of 84 serum samples, 28 were reactive with ≥1 henipavirus glycoprotein by ≥1 serological method, and 6 serum samples were reactive against ≥1 filovirus glycoproteins. These data provide evidence of potential circulation of viruses related to the henipaviruses and filoviruses in New World bats.

A Novel Field-Deployable Method for Sequencing and Analyses of Henipavirus Genomes From Complex Samples on the MinION Platform

Viruses in the genus Henipavirus encompass 2 highly pathogenic emerging zoonotic pathogens, Hendra virus (HeV) and Nipah virus (NiV). Despite the impact on human health, there is currently limited full-genome sequence information available for henipaviruses. This lack of full-length genomes hampers our ability to understand the molecular drivers of henipavirus emergence. Furthermore, rapidly deployable viral genome sequencing can be an integral part of outbreak response and epidemiological investigations to study transmission chains. In this study, we describe the development of a reverse-transcription, long-range polymerase chain reaction (LRPCR) assay for efficient genome amplification of NiV, HeV, and a related non-pathogenic henipavirus, Cedar virus (CedPV). We then demonstrated the utility of our method by amplifying partial viral genomes from 6 HeV-infected tissue samples from Syrian hamsters and 4 tissue samples from a NiV-infected African green monkey with viral loads as low as 52 genome copies/mg. We subsequently sequenced the amplified genomes on the portable Oxford Nanopore MinION platform and analyzed the data using a newly developed field-deployable bioinformatic pipeline. Our LRPCR assay allows amplification and sequencing of 2 or 4 amplicons in semi-nested reactions. Coupled with an easy-to-use bioinformatics pipeline, this method is particularly useful in the field during outbreaks in resource-poor environments.

Surface-aerosol stability and pathogenicity of diverse MERS-CoV strains from 2012 - 2018

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is a coronavirus that infects both humans and dromedary camels and is responsible for an ongoing outbreak of severe respiratory illness in humans in the Middle East. While some mutations found in camel-derived MERS-CoV strains have been characterized, the majority of natural variation found across MERS-CoV isolates remains unstudied. Here we report on the environmental stability, replication kinetics and pathogenicity of several diverse isolates of MERS-CoV as well as SARS-CoV-2 to serve as a basis of comparison with other stability studies. While most of the MERS-CoV isolates exhibited similar stability and pathogenicity in our experiments, the camel derived isolate, C/KSA/13, exhibited reduced surface stability while another camel isolate, C/BF/15, had reduced pathogenicity in a small animal model. These results suggest that while betacoronaviruses may have similar environmental stability profiles, individual variation can influence this phenotype, underscoring the importance of continual, global viral surveillance.

Case Study: Prolonged Infectious SARS-CoV-2 Shedding from an Asymptomatic Immunocompromised Individual with Cancer

Long-term severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) shedding was observed from the upper respiratory tract of a female immunocompromised individual with chronic lymphocytic leukemia and acquired hypogammaglobulinemia. Shedding of infectious SARS-CoV-2 was observed up to 70 days, and of genomic and subgenomic RNA up to 105 days, after initial diagnosis. The infection was not cleared after the first treatment with convalescent plasma, suggesting a limited effect on SARS-CoV-2 in the upper respiratory tract of this individual. Several weeks after a second convalescent plasma transfusion, SARS-CoV-2 RNA was no longer detected. We observed marked within-host genomic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 with continuous turnover of dominant viral variants. However, replication kinetics in Vero E6 cells and primary human alveolar epithelial tissues were not affected. Our data indicate that certain immunocompromised individuals may shed infectious virus longer than previously recognized. Detection of subgenomic RNA is recommended in persistently SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals as a proxy for shedding of infectious virus.

Beyond Infection: Integrating Competence into Reservoir Host Prediction

Most efforts to predict novel reservoirs of zoonotic pathogens use information about host exposure and infection rather than competence, defined as the ability to transmit pathogens. Better obtaining and integrating competence data into statistical models as covariates, as the response variable, and through postmodel validation should improve predictive research.

Effectiveness of N95 Respirator Decontamination and Reuse against SARS-CoV-2 Virus

The coronavirus pandemic has created worldwide shortages of N95 respirators. We analyzed 4 decontamination methods for effectiveness in deactivating severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 virus and effect on respirator function. Our results indicate that N95 respirators can be decontaminated and reused, but the integrity of respirator fit and seal must be maintained.

Bat-borne virus diversity, spillover and emergence

Most viral pathogens in humans have animal origins and arose through cross-species transmission. Over the past 50 years, several viruses, including Ebola virus, Marburg virus, Nipah virus, Hendra virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), Middle East respiratory coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and SARS-CoV-2, have been linked back to various bat species. Despite decades of research into bats and the pathogens they carry, the fields of bat virus ecology and molecular biology are still nascent, with many questions largely unexplored, thus hindering our ability to anticipate and prepare for the next viral outbreak. In this Review, we discuss the latest advancements and understanding of bat-borne viruses, reflecting on current knowledge gaps and outlining the potential routes for future research as well as for outbreak response and prevention efforts.

Effect of Environmental Conditions on SARS-CoV-2 Stability in Human Nasal Mucus and Sputum

We found that environmental conditions affect the stability of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in nasal mucus and sputum. The virus is more stable at low-temperature and low-humidity conditions, whereas warmer temperature and higher humidity shortened half-life. Although infectious virus was undetectable after 48 hours, viral RNA remained detectable for 7 days.

Rousettus aegyptiacus Bats Do Not Support Productive Nipah Virus Replication

Nipah virus (NiV) is a bat-borne zoonotic pathogen that can cause severe respiratory distress and encephalitis upon spillover into humans. NiV is capable of infecting a broad range of hosts including humans, pigs, ferrets, dogs, cats, hamsters, and at least 2 genera of bats. Little is known about the biology of NiV in the bat reservoir. In this study, we evaluate the potential for the Egyptian fruit bat (EFB), Rousettus aegyptiacus, to serve as a model organism for studying NiV in bats. Our data suggest that NiV does not efficiently replicate in EFBs in vivo. Furthermore, we show no seroconversion against NiV glycoprotein and a lack of viral replication in primary and immortalized EFB-derived cell lines. Our data show that despite using a conserved target for viral entry, NiV replication is limited in some bat species. We conclude that EFBs are not an appropriate organism to model NiV infection or transmission in bats.

Assessment of N95 respirator decontamination and re-use for SARS-CoV-2

The unprecedented pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 has created worldwide shortages of personal protective equipment, in particular respiratory protection such as N95 respirators. SARS-CoV-2 transmission is frequently occurring in hospital settings, with numerous reported cases of nosocomial transmission highlighting the vulnerability of healthcare workers. In general, N95 respirators are designed for single use prior to disposal. Here, we have analyzed four readily available and often used decontamination methods: UV, 70% ethanol, 70C heat and vaporized hydrogen peroxide for inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 on N95 respirators. Equally important we assessed the function of the N95 respirators after multiple wear and decontamination sessions.

Adaptive Evolution of MERS-CoV to Species Variation in DPP4

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) likely originated in bats and passed to humans through dromedary camels; however, the genetic mechanisms underlying cross-species adaptation remain poorly understood. Variation in the host receptor, dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4), can block the interaction with the MERS-CoV spike protein and form a species barrier to infection. To better understand the species adaptability of MERS-CoV, we identified a suboptimal species-derived variant of DPP4 to study viral adaption. Passaging virus on cells expressing this DPP4 variant led to accumulation of mutations in the viral spike which increased replication. Parallel passages revealed distinct paths of viral adaptation to the same DPP4 variant. Structural analysis and functional assays showed that these mutations enhanced viral entry with suboptimal DPP4 by altering the surface charge of spike. These findings demonstrate that MERS-CoV spike can utilize multiple paths to rapidly adapt to novel species variation in DPP4.

Lek-associated movement of a putative Ebolavirus reservoir, the hammer-headed fruit bat (Hypsignathus monstrosus), in northern Republic of Congo

The biology and ecology of Africa's largest fruit bat remains largely understudied and enigmatic despite at least two highly unusual attributes. The acoustic lek mating behavior of the hammer-headed bat (Hypsignathus monstrosus) in the Congo basin was first described in the 1970s. More recently molecular testing implicated this species and other African bats as potential reservoir hosts for Ebola virus and it was one of only two fruit bat species epidemiologically linked to the 2008 Luebo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ebola outbreak. Here we share findings from the first pilot study of hammer-headed bat movement using GPS tracking and accelerometry units and a small preceding radio-tracking trial at an apparent lekking site. The radio-tracking revealed adult males had high rates of nightly visitation to the site compared to females (only one visit) and that two of six females day-roosted ~100 m west of Libonga, the nearest village that is ~1.6 km southwest. Four months later, in mid-April 2018, five individual bats, comprised of four males and one female, were tracked from two to 306 days, collecting from 67 to 1022 GPS locations. As measured by mean distance to the site and proportion of nightly GPS locations within 1 km of the site (percent visitation), the males were much more closely associated with the site (mean distance 1.4 km; 51% visitation), than the female (mean 5.5 km; 2.2% visitation). Despite the small sample size, our tracking evidence supports our original characterization of the site as a lek, and the lek itself is much more central to male than female movement. Moreover, our pilot demonstrates the technical feasibility of executing future studies on hammer-headed bats that will help fill problematic knowledge gaps about zoonotic spillover risks and the conservation needs of fruit bats across the continent.

Long-Range Polymerase Chain Reaction Method for Sequencing the Ebola Virus Genome From Ecological and Clinical Samples

Sequencing viral genomes during an outbreak can facilitate response and containment efforts. In this study, we describe a reverse transcription long-range polymerase chain reaction for efficient amplification and sequencing of the Ebola virus (EBOV) genome in 2 seminested reactions. We demonstrate that our method remains robust with complex biological samples by amplifying and sequencing the EBOV genome from EBOV-infected nonhuman primates (NHPs). We further demonstrate that we are able to recover viral genomes from starting concentrations as low as 103 50% tissue culture infective dose (TCID50)/mL, suggesting that this method can be employed to sequence EBOV genomes from ecologically or clinically derived samples.

Long-term wildlife mortality surveillance in northern Congo: a model for the detection of Ebola virus disease epizootics

Ebolavirus (EBOV) has caused disease outbreaks taking thousands of lives, costing billions of dollars in control efforts and threatening great ape populations. EBOV ecology is not fully understood but infected wildlife and consumption of animal carcasses have been linked to human outbreaks, especially in the Congo Basin. Partnering with the Congolese Ministry of Health, we conducted wildlife mortality surveillance and educational outreach in the northern Republic of Congo (RoC). Designed for EBOV detection and to alert public health authorities, we established a low-cost wildlife mortality reporting network covering 50 000 km². Simultaneously, we delivered educational outreach promoting behavioural change to over 6600 people in rural northern RoC. We achieved specimen collection by training project staff on a safe sampling protocol and equipping geographically distributed bases with sampling kits. We established in-country diagnostics for EBOV testing, reducing diagnostic turnaround time to 3 days and demonstrated the absence of EBOV in 58 carcasses. Central Africa remains a high-risk EBOV region, but RoC, home to the largest remaining populations of great apes, has not had an epidemic since 2005. This effort continues to function as an untested early warning system in RoC, where people and great apes have died from past Ebola virus disease outbreaks. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.

swga: a primer design toolkit for selective whole genome amplification

Motivation

Population genomic analyses are often hindered by difficulties in obtaining sufficient numbers of genomes for analysis by DNA sequencing. Selective whole-genome amplification (SWGA) provides an efficient approach to amplify microbial genomes from complex backgrounds for sequence acquisition. However, the process of designing sets of primers for this method has many degrees of freedom and would benefit from an automated process to evaluate the vast number of potential primer sets.

Results

Here, we present swga, a program that identifies primer sets for SWGA and evaluates them for efficiency and selectivity. We used swga to design and test primer sets for the selective amplification of Wolbachia pipientis genomic DNA from infected Drosophila melanogaster and Mycobacterium tuberculosis from human blood. We identify primer sets that successfully amplify each against their backgrounds and describe a general method for using swga for arbitrary targets. In addition, we describe characteristics of primer sets that correlate with successful amplification, and present guidelines for implementation of SWGA to detect new targets.

Availability and Implementation

Source code and documentation are freely available on https://www.github.com/eclarke/swga. The program is implemented in Python and C and licensed under the GNU Public License.

Supplementary information

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Recent and rapid population growth and range expansion of the Lyme disease tick vector, Ixodes scapularis, in North America

Migration is a primary force of biological evolution that alters allele frequencies and introduces novel genetic variants into populations. Recent migration has been proposed as the cause of the emergence of many infectious diseases, including those carried by blacklegged ticks in North America. Populations of blacklegged ticks have established and flourished in areas of North America previously thought to be devoid of this species. The recent discovery of these populations of blacklegged ticks may have resulted from either in situ growth of long-established populations that were maintained at very low densities or by migration and colonization from established populations. These alternative evolutionary hypotheses were investigated using Bayesian phylogeographic approaches to infer the origin and migratory history of recently detected blacklegged tick populations in the Northeastern United States. The data and results indicate that newly detected tick populations are not the product of in situ population growth from a previously established population but from recent colonization resulting in a geographic range expansion. This expansion in the geographic range proceeded primarily through progressive and local migration events from southern populations to proximate northern locations although long-distance migration events were also detected.

Reduction of Aedes aegypti vector competence for dengue virus under large temperature fluctuations

Diurnal temperature fluctuations can fundamentally alter mosquito biology and mosquito-virus interactions in ways that impact pathogen transmission. We investigated the effect of two daily fluctuating temperature profiles on Aedes aegypti vector competence for dengue virus (DENV) serotype-1. A large diurnal temperature range of 18.6°C around a 26°C mean, corresponding with the low DENV transmission season in northwestern Thailand, reduced midgut infection rates and tended to extend the virus extrinsic incubation period. Dissemination was first observed at day 7 under small fluctuations (7.6°C; corresponding with high DENV transmission) and constant control temperature, but not until Day 11 for the large diurnal temperature range. Results indicate that female Ae. aegypti in northwest Thailand are less likely to transmit DENV during the low than high transmission season because of reduced DENV susceptibility and extended virus extrinsic incubation period. Better understanding of DENV transmission dynamics will come with improved knowledge of temperature effects on mosquito-virus interactions.

Large diurnal temperature fluctuations negatively influence Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) life-history traits

Seasonal variation in dengue virus transmission in northwestern Thailand is inversely related to the magnitude of diurnal temperature fluctuations, although mean temperature does not vary significantly across seasons. We tested the hypothesis that diurnal temperature fluctuations negatively influence epidemiologically important life-history traits of the primary dengue vector, Aedes aegypti (L.), compared with a constant 26 degrees C temperature. A large diurnal temperature range (DTR) (approximately equals 18 degrees C daily swing) extended immature development time (>1 d), lowered larval survival (approximately equals 6%), and reduced adult female reproductive output by 25% 14 d after blood feeding, relative to the constant 26 degreesC temperature. A small DTR (approximately equal 8 degrees C daily swing) led to a negligible or slightly positive effect on the life history traits tested. Our results indicate that there is a negative impact of large DTR on mosquito biology and are consistent with the hypothesis that, in at least some locations, large temperature fluctuations contribute to seasonal reduction in dengue virus transmission.

The knockdown resistance mutation and knockdown time in Anopheles gambiae collected from Mali evaluated through a bottle bioassay and a novel insecticide-treated net bioassay

Successful malaria management in Mali includes the use of pyrethroids and insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) for mosquito control; however, management is threatened by the spread of insecticide resistance detected via the knockdown resistance (kdr) allele. In a preliminary study, we compared the knockdown times of Anopheles gambiae from Mali using a novel ITN bioassay and the World Health Organization (WHO) bottle bioassay. Additionally, the frequency and relationship between kdr genotypes, molecular forms, and pyrethroid resistance were analyzed. The S molecular form was predominant and accounted for 76% of the assayed population. Both kdr resistant alleles, West Africa resistant (kdr-w) and East Africa resistant (kdr-e), were observed. There was no significant difference in knockdown time based on kdr genotype or molecular form of individual mosquitoes, but mosquitoes in the ITN bioassay homozygous for the kdr-w allele were knocked down significantly faster than those in the WHO bottle bioassay. The ITN bioassay provides an additional indicator of insecticide efficacy because ITNs, frequently used within homes, are the most common form of vector control and malaria prevention, and the ITN bioassays can evaluate seasonal field effects.

High degree of single nucleotide polymorphisms in California Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae) sensu lato

Resolution of systematic relationships among members of the Culex pipiens (L.) complex has important implications for public health as well as for studies on the evolution of sibling species. Currently held views contend that in California considerable genetic introgression occurs between Cx. pipiens and Cx. quinquefasciatus Say, and as such, these taxa behave as if they are a single species. Development of high throughput SNP genotyping tools for the analysis of Cx. pipiens complex population structure is therefore desirable. As a first step toward this goal, we sequenced 12 gene fragments from specimens collected in Marin and Fresno counties. On average, we found a higher single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) density than any other mosquito species reported thus far. Coding regions contained significantly higher GC content (median 54.7%) than noncoding regions (42.4%; Wilcoxon rank sum test, P = 5.29 x 10(-5)). Differences in SNP allele frequencies observed between mosquitoes from Marin and Fresno counties indicated significant genetic divergence and suggest that SNP markers will be useful for future detailed population genetic studies of this group. The high density of SNPs highlights the difficulty in identifying species within the complex and may be associated with the large degree of phenotypic variation observed in this group of mosquitoes.

Single-nucleotide polymorphisms for high-throughput genotyping of Anopheles arabiensis in East and southern Africa

Anopheles arabiensis Patton is one of the principal vectors of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa, occupying a wide variety of ecological zones. This species is increasingly responsible for malaria transmission in Africa and is becoming the dominant vector species in some localities. Despite its growing importance, little is known about genetic polymorphisms in this species. Multiple sequences of various gene fragments from An. arabiensis isolates from Cameroon were obtained from GenBank. In total, 20 gene fragments containing single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at moderate density were selected for direct sequencing from field collected specimens from Tanzania and Zambia. We obtained 301 SNPs in total from the 20 gene fragments, 60 of which were suitable for Illumina GoldenGate SNP genotyping. A greater number of SNPs (n = 185) was suitable for analysis using Sequenom iPLEX, an alternative high-throughput genotyping technology using mass spectrometry. An SNP was present every 59 (+/- 44.5) bases on average. Overall, An. arabiensis from Tanzania and Zambia are genetically closer (mean F(ST) = 0.075) than either is to populations in Cameroon (F(ST, TZ-CM) = 0.250, F(ST,ZA-CM) = 0.372). A fixed polymorphism between East/southern and Central Africa was identified on AGAP000574, a gene on the X chromosome. We have identified SNPs in natural populations of An. arabiensis. SNP densities in An. arabiensis were higher than Anopheles gambiae s.s., suggesting a greater challenge in the development of high-throughput SNP analysis for this species. The SNP markers provided in this study are suitable for a high-throughput genotyping analysis and can be used for population genetic studies and association mapping efforts.

Ecological niche modeling in Maxent: the importance of model complexity and the performance of model selection criteria

Maxent, one of the most commonly used methods for inferring species distributions and environmental tolerances from occurrence data, allows users to fit models of arbitrary complexity. Model complexity is typically constrained via a process known as L1 regularization, but at present little guidance is available for setting the appropriate level of regularization, and the effects of inappropriately complex or simple models are largely unknown. In this study, we demonstrate the use of information criterion approaches to setting regularization in Maxent, and we compare models selected using information criteria to models selected using other criteria that are common in the literature. We evaluate model performance using occurrence data generated from a known "true" initial Maxent model, using several different metrics for model quality and transferability. We demonstrate that models that are inappropriately complex or inappropriately simple show reduced ability to infer habitat quality, reduced ability to infer the relative importance of variables in constraining species' distributions, and reduced transferability to other time periods. We also demonstrate that information criteria may offer significant advantages over the methods commonly used in the literature.