Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Immunogenicity of third dose COVID-19 vaccine strategies in patients who are immunocompromised with suboptimal immunity following two doses (OCTAVE-DUO): an open-label, multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial

BACKGROUND

The humoral and T-cell responses to booster COVID-19 vaccine types in multidisease immunocompromised individuals who do not generate adequate antibody responses to two COVID-19 vaccine doses, is not fully understood. The OCTAVE DUO trial aimed to determine the value of third vaccinations in a wide range of patients with primary and secondary immunodeficiencies.

METHODS

OCTAVE-DUO was a prospective, open-label, multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial investigating humoral and T-cell responses in patients who are immunocompromised following a third vaccine dose with BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273, and of NVX-CoV2373 for those with lymphoid malignancies. We recruited patients who were immunocompromised from 11 UK hospitals, aged at least 18 years, with previous sub-optimal responses to two doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Participants were randomly assigned 1:1 (1:1:1 for those with lymphoid malignancies), stratified by disease, previous vaccination type, and anti-spike antibody response following two doses. Individuals with lived experience of immune susceptibility were involved in the study design and implementation. The primary outcome was vaccine-specific immunity defined by anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibodies (Roche Diagnostics UK and Ireland, Burgess Hill, UK) and T-cell responses (Oxford Immunotec, Abingdon, UK) before and 21 days after the third vaccine dose analysed by a modified intention-to-treat analysis. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN 15354495, and the EU Clinical Trials Register, EudraCT 2021-003632-87, and is complete.

FINDINGS

Between Aug 4, 2021 and Mar 31, 2022, 804 participants across nine disease cohorts were randomly assigned to receive BNT162b2 (n=377), mRNA-1273 (n=374), or NVX-CoV2373 (n=53). 356 (45%) of 789 participants were women, 433 (55%) were men, and 659 (85%) of 775 were White. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibodies measured 21 days after the third vaccine dose were significantly higher than baseline pre-third dose titres in the modified intention-to-treat analysis (median 1384 arbitrary units [AU]/mL [IQR 4·3-7990·0] compared with median 11·5 AU/mL [0·4-63·1]; p<0·001). Of participants who were baseline low responders, 380 (90%) of 423 increased their antibody concentrations to more than 400 AU/mL. Conversely, 166 (54%) of 308 baseline non-responders had no response after the third dose. Detectable T-cell responses following the third vaccine dose were seen in 494 (80%) of 616 participants. There were 24 serious adverse events (BNT612b2 eight [33%] of 24, mRNA-1273 12 [50%], NVX-CoV2373 four [17%]), two (8%) of which were categorised as vaccine-related. There were seven deaths (1%) during the trial, none of which were vaccine-related.

INTERPRETATION

A third vaccine dose improved the serological and T-cell response in the majority of patients who are immunocompromised. Individuals with chronic renal disease, lymphoid malignancy, on B-cell targeted therapies, or with no serological response after two vaccine doses are at higher risk of poor response to a third vaccine dose.

FUNDING

Medical Research Council, Blood Cancer UK.

Obesity Differs from Diabetes Mellitus in Antibody and T Cell Responses Post COVID-19 Recovery

Obesity and type 2 diabetes (DM) are risk factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes, which disproportionately affect South Asian populations. This study aims to investigate the humoral and cellular immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 in adult COVID-19 survivors with obesity and DM in Bangladesh. In this cross-sectional study, SARS-CoV-2-specific antibody and T cell responses were investigated in 63 healthy and 75 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 recovered individuals in Bangladesh, during the pre-vaccination first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. In COVID-19 survivors, SARS-CoV-2 infection induced robust antibody and T cell responses, which correlated with disease severity. After adjusting for age, sex, DM status, disease severity, and time since onset of symptoms, obesity was associated with decreased neutralising antibody titers, and increased SARS-CoV-2 spike-specific IFN-γ response along with increased proliferation and IL-2 production by CD8+ T cells. In contrast, DM was not associated with SARS-CoV-2-specific antibody and T cell responses after adjustment for obesity and other confounders. Obesity is associated with lower neutralising antibody levels and higher T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 post COVID-19 recovery, while antibody or T cell responses remain unaltered in DM.

Global burden associated with 85 pathogens in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Despite a global epidemiological transition towards increased burden of non-communicable diseases, communicable diseases continue to cause substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide. Understanding the burden of a wide range of infectious diseases, and its variation by geography and age, is pivotal to research priority setting and resource mobilisation globally.

METHODS

We estimated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with 85 pathogens in 2019, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. The term pathogen included causative agents, pathogen groups, infectious conditions, and aggregate categories. We applied a novel methodological approach to account for underlying, immediate, and intermediate causes of death, which counted every death for which a pathogen had a role in the pathway to death. We refer to this measure as the burden associated with infection, which was estimated by combining different sources of information. To compare the burden among all pathogens, we used pathogen-specific ratios to incorporate the burden of immediate and intermediate causes of death for pathogens modelled previously by the GBD. We created the ratios by using multiple cause of death data, hospital discharge data, linkage data, and minimally invasive tissue sampling data to estimate the fraction of deaths coming from the pathway to death chain. We multiplied the pathogen-specific ratios by age-specific years of life lost (YLLs), calculated with GBD 2019 methods, and then added the adjusted YLLs to age-specific years lived with disability (YLDs) from GBD 2019 to produce adjusted DALYs to account for deaths in the chain. We used standard GBD methods to calculate 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates of DALYs by taking the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles across 1000 posterior draws for each quantity of interest. We provided burden estimates pertaining to all ages and specifically to the under 5 years age group.

FINDINGS

Globally in 2019, an estimated 704 million (95% UI 610-820) DALYs were associated with 85 different pathogens, including 309 million (250-377; 43·9% of the burden) in children younger than 5 years. This burden accounted for 27·7% (and 65·5% in those younger than 5 years) of the previously reported total DALYs from all causes in 2019. Comparing super-regions, considerable differences were observed in the estimated pathogen-associated burdens in relation to DALYs from all causes, with the highest burden observed in sub-Saharan Africa (314 million [270-368] DALYs; 61·5% of total regional burden) and the lowest in the high-income super-region (31·8 million [25·4-40·1] DALYs; 9·8%). Three leading pathogens were responsible for more than 50 million DALYs each in 2019: tuberculosis (65·1 million [59·0-71·2]), malaria (53·6 million [27·0-91·3]), and HIV or AIDS (52·1 million [46·6-60·9]). Malaria was the leading pathogen for DALYs in children younger than 5 years (37·2 million [17·8-64·2]). We also observed substantial burden associated with previously less recognised pathogens, including Staphylococcus aureus and specific Gram-negative bacterial species (ie, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Acinetobacter baumannii, and Helicobacter pylori). Conversely, some pathogens had a burden that was smaller than anticipated.

INTERPRETATION

Our detailed breakdown of DALYs associated with a comprehensive list of pathogens on a global, regional, and country level has revealed the magnitude of the problem and helps to indicate where research funding mismatch might exist. Given the disproportionate impact of infection on low-income and middle-income countries, an essential next step is for countries and relevant stakeholders to address these gaps by making targeted investments.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.

Emerging variants develop total escape from potent monoclonal antibodies induced by BA.4/5 infection

The rapid evolution of SARS-CoV-2 is driven in part by a need to evade the antibody response in the face of high levels of immunity. Here, we isolate spike (S) binding monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) from vaccinees who suffered vaccine break-through infections with Omicron sub lineages BA.4 or BA.5. Twenty eight potent antibodies are isolated and characterised functionally, and in some cases structurally. Since the emergence of BA.4/5, SARS-CoV-2 has continued to accrue mutations in the S protein, to understand this we characterize neutralization of a large panel of variants and demonstrate a steady attrition of neutralization by the panel of BA.4/5 mAbs culminating in total loss of function with recent XBB.1.5.70 variants containing the so-called 'FLip' mutations at positions 455 and 456. Interestingly, activity of some mAbs is regained on the recently reported variant BA.2.86.

The SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody response to SD1 and its evasion by BA.2.86

Under pressure from neutralising antibodies induced by vaccination or infection the SARS-CoV-2 spike gene has become a hotspot for evolutionary change, leading to the failure of all mAbs developed for clinical use. Most potent antibodies bind to the receptor binding domain which has become heavily mutated. Here we study responses to a conserved epitope in sub-domain-1 (SD1) of spike which have become more prominent because of mutational escape from antibodies directed to the receptor binding domain. Some SD1 reactive mAbs show potent and broad neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 variants. We structurally map the dominant SD1 epitope and provide a mechanism of action by blocking interaction with ACE2. Mutations in SD1 have not been sustained to date, but one, E554K, leads to escape from mAbs. This mutation has now emerged in several sublineages including BA.2.86, reflecting selection pressure on the virus exerted by the increasing prominence of the anti-SD1 response.

Estimating the subnational prevalence of antimicrobial resistant Salmonella enterica serovars Typhi and Paratyphi A infections in 75 endemic countries, 1990-2019: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Enteric fever, a systemic infection caused by Salmonella enterica serovars Typhi and Paratyphi A, remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries. Enteric fever is preventable through the provision of clean water and adequate sanitation and can be successfully treated with antibiotics. However, high levels of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) compromise the effectiveness of treatment. We provide estimates of the prevalence of AMR S Typhi and S Paratyphi A in 75 endemic countries, including 30 locations without data.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling framework to estimate the percentage of multidrug resistance (MDR), fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility (FQNS), and third-generation cephalosporin resistance in S Typhi and S Paratyphi A infections for 1403 administrative level one districts in 75 endemic countries from 1990 to 2019. We incorporated data from a comprehensive systematic review, public health surveillance networks, and large multicountry studies on enteric fever. Estimates of the prevalence of AMR and the number of AMR infections (based on enteric fever incidence estimates by the Global Burden of Diseases study) were produced at the country, super-region, and total endemic area level for each year of the study.

FINDINGS

We collated data from 601 sources, comprising 184 225 isolates of S Typhi and S Paratyphi A, covering 45 countries over 30 years. We identified a decline of MDR S Typhi in south Asia and southeast Asia, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, the overall prevalence increased from 6·0% (95% uncertainty interval 4·3-8·0) in 1990 to 72·7% (67·7-77·3) in 2019. Starting from low levels in 1990, the prevalence of FQNS S Typhi increased rapidly, reaching 95·2% (91·4-97·7) in south Asia in 2019. This corresponded to 2·5 million (1·5-3·8) MDR S Typhi infections and 7·4 million (4·7-11·3) FQNS S Typhi infections in endemic countries in 2019. The prevalence of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant S Typhi remained low across the whole endemic area over the study period, except for Pakistan where prevalence of third-generation cephalosporin resistance in S Typhi reached 61·0% (58·0-63·8) in 2019. For S Paratyphi A, we estimated low prevalence of MDR and third-generation cephalosporin resistance in all endemic countries, but a drastic increase of FQNS, which reached 95·0% (93·7-96·1; 3·5 million [2·2-5·6] infections) in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

This study provides a comprehensive and detailed analysis of the prevalence of MDR, FQNS, and third-generation cephalosporin resistance in S Typhi and S Paratyphi A infections in endemic countries, spanning the last 30 years. Our analysis highlights the increasing levels of AMR in this preventable infection and serves as a resource to guide urgently needed public health interventions, such as improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene and typhoid fever vaccination campaigns.

FUNDING

Fleming Fund, UK Department of Health and Social Care; Wellcome Trust; and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burkholderia pseudomallei and melioidosis

Burkholderia pseudomallei, the causative agent of melioidosis, is found in soil and water of tropical and subtropical regions globally. Modelled estimates of the global burden predict that melioidosis remains vastly under-reported, and a call has been made for it to be recognized as a neglected tropical disease by the World Health Organization. Severe weather events and environmental disturbance are associated with increased case numbers, and it is anticipated that, in some regions, cases will increase in association with climate change. Genomic epidemiological investigations have confirmed B. pseudomallei endemicity in newly recognized regions, including the southern United States. Melioidosis follows environmental exposure to B. pseudomallei and is associated with comorbidities that affect the immune response, such as diabetes, and with socioeconomic disadvantage. Several vaccine candidates are ready for phase I clinical trials. In this Review, we explore the global burden, epidemiology and pathophysiology of B. pseudomallei as well as current diagnostics, treatment recommendations and preventive measures, highlighting research needs and priorities.

The burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in the WHO African region in 2019: a cross-country systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

A critical and persistent challenge to global health and modern health care is the threat of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Previous studies have reported a disproportionate burden of AMR in low-income and middle-income countries, but there remains an urgent need for more in-depth analyses across Africa. This study presents one of the most comprehensive sets of regional and country-level estimates of bacterial AMR burden in the WHO African region to date.

METHODS

We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with AMR for 23 bacterial pathogens and 88 pathogen-drug combinations for countries in the WHO African region in 2019. Our methodological approach consisted of five broad components: the number of deaths in which infection had a role, the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antimicrobial drug of interest, and the excess risk of mortality (or duration of an infection) associated with this resistance. These components were then used to estimate the disease burden by using two counterfactual scenarios: deaths attributable to AMR (considering an alternative scenario where infections with resistant pathogens are replaced with susceptible ones) and deaths associated with AMR (considering an alternative scenario where drug-resistant infections would not occur at all). We obtained data from research hospitals, surveillance networks, and infection databases maintained by private laboratories and medical technology companies. We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity.

FINDINGS

In the WHO African region in 2019, there were an estimated 1·05 million deaths (95% UI 829 000-1 316 000) associated with bacterial AMR and 250 000 deaths (192 000-325 000) attributable to bacterial AMR. The largest fatal AMR burden was attributed to lower respiratory and thorax infections (119 000 deaths [92 000-151 000], or 48% of all estimated bacterial pathogen AMR deaths), bloodstream infections (56 000 deaths [37 000-82 000], or 22%), intra-abdominal infections (26 000 deaths [17 000-39 000], or 10%), and tuberculosis (18 000 deaths [3850-39 000], or 7%). Seven leading pathogens were collectively responsible for 821 000 deaths (636 000-1 051 000) associated with resistance in this region, with four pathogens exceeding 100 000 deaths each: Streptococcus pneumoniae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Escherichia coli, and Staphylococcus aureus. Third-generation cephalosporin-resistant K pneumoniae and meticillin-resistant S aureus were shown to be the leading pathogen-drug combinations in 25 and 16 countries, respectively (53% and 34% of the whole region, comprising 47 countries) for deaths attributable to AMR.

INTERPRETATION

This study reveals a high level of AMR burden for several bacterial pathogens and pathogen-drug combinations in the WHO African region. The high mortality rates associated with these pathogens demonstrate an urgent need to address the burden of AMR in Africa. These estimates also show that quality and access to health care and safe water and sanitation are correlated with AMR mortality, with a higher fatal burden found in lower resource settings. Our cross-country analyses within this region can help local governments to leverage domestic and global funding to create stewardship policies that target the leading pathogen-drug combinations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.

Incident dementia risk among patients with type 2 diabetes receiving metformin versus alternative oral glucose-lowering therapy: an observational cohort study using UK primary healthcare records

INTRODUCTION

4.2 million individuals in the UK have type 2 diabetes, a known risk factor for dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Diabetes treatment may modify this association, but existing evidence is conflicting. We therefore aimed to assess the association between metformin therapy and risk of incident all-cause dementia or MCI compared with other oral glucose-lowering therapies (GLTs).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We conducted an observational cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink among UK adults diagnosed with diabetes at ≥40 years between 1990 and 2019. We used an active comparator new user design to compare risks of dementia and MCI among individuals initially prescribed metformin versus an alternative oral GLT using Cox proportional hazards regression controlling for sociodemographic, lifestyle and clinical confounders. We assessed for interaction by age and sex. Sensitivity analyses included an as-treated analysis to mitigate potential exposure misclassification.

RESULTS

We included 211 396 individuals (median age 63 years; 42.8% female), of whom 179 333 (84.8%) initiated on metformin therapy. Over median follow-up of 5.4 years, metformin use was associated with a lower risk of dementia (adjusted HR (aHR) 0.86 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.94)) and MCI (aHR 0.92 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.99)). Metformin users aged under 80 years had a lower dementia risk (aHR 0.77 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.85)), which was not observed for those aged ≥80 years (aHR 0.95 (95% CI 0.87 to 1.05)). There was no interaction with sex. The as-treated analysis showed a reduced effect size compared with the main analysis (aHR 0.90 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.98)).

CONCLUSIONS

Metformin use was associated with lower risks of incident dementia and MCI compared with alternative GLT among UK adults with diabetes. While our findings are consistent with a neuroprotective effect of metformin against dementia, further research is needed to reduce risks of confounding by indication and assess causality.

Serum HCoV-spike specific antibodies do not protect against subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and adolescents

SARS-CoV-2 infections in children are generally asymptomatic or mild and rarely progress to severe disease and hospitalization. Why this is so remains unclear. Here we explore the potential for protection due to pre-existing cross-reactive seasonal coronavirus antibodies and compare the rate of antibody decline for nucleocapsid and spike protein in serum and oral fluid against SARS-CoV-2 within the pediatric population. No differences in seasonal coronaviruses antibody concentrations were found at baseline between cases and controls, suggesting no protective effect from pre-existing immunity against seasonal coronaviruses. Antibodies against seasonal betacoronaviruses were boosted in response to SARS-CoV-2 infection. In serum, anti-nucleocapsid antibodies fell below the threshold of positivity more quickly than anti-spike protein antibodies. These findings add to our understanding of protection against infection with SARS-CoV-2 within the pediatric population, which is important when considering pediatric SARS-CoV-2 immunization policies.

Deciphering the human antibody response against Burkholderia pseudomallei during melioidosis using a comprehensive immunoproteome approach

Introduction

The environmental bacterium Burkholderia pseudomallei causes the often fatal and massively underreported infectious disease melioidosis. Antigens inducing protective immunity in experimental models have recently been identified and serodiagnostic tools have been improved. However, further elucidation of the antigenic repertoire of B. pseudomallei during human infection for diagnostic and vaccine purposes is required. The adaptation of B. pseudomallei to very different habitats is reflected by a huge genome and a selective transcriptional response to a variety of conditions. We, therefore, hypothesized that exposure of B. pseudomallei to culture conditions mimicking habitats encountered in the human host might unravel novel antigens that are recognized by melioidosis patients.

Methods and results

In this study, B. pseudomallei was exposed to various stress and growth conditions, including anaerobiosis, acid stress, oxidative stress, iron starvation and osmotic stress. Immunogenic proteins were identified by probing two-dimensional Western blots of B. pseudomallei intracellular and extracellular protein extracts with sera from melioidosis patients and controls and subsequent MALDI-TOF MS. Among B. pseudomallei specific immunogenic signals, 90 % (55/61) of extracellular immunogenic proteins were identified by acid, osmotic or oxidative stress. A total of 84 % (44/52) of intracellular antigens originated from the stationary growth phase, acidic, oxidative and anaerobic conditions. The majority of the extracellular and intracellular protein antigens were identified in only one of the various stress conditions. Sixty-three immunoreactive proteins and an additional 38 candidates from a literature screening were heterologously expressed and subjected to dot blot analysis using melioidosis sera and controls. Our experiments confirmed melioidosis-specific signals in 58 of our immunoproteome candidates. These include 15 antigens with average signal ratios (melioidosis:controls) greater than 10 and another 26 with average ratios greater than 5, including new promising serodiagnostic candidates with a very high signal-to-noise ratio.

Conclusion

Our study shows that a comprehensive B. pseudomallei immunoproteomics approach, using conditions which are likely to be encountered during infection, can identify novel antibody targets previously unrecognized in human melioidosis.

T cell immune memory after covid-19 and vaccination

The T cell memory response is a crucial component of adaptive immunity responsible for limiting or preventing viral reinfection. T cell memory after infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus or vaccination is broad, and spans multiple viral proteins and epitopes, about 20 in each individual. So far the T cell memory response is long lasting and provides a high level of cross reactivity and hence resistance to viral escape by variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, such as the omicron variant. All current vaccine regimens tested produce robust T cell memory responses, and heterologous regimens will probably enhance protective responses through increased breadth. T cell memory could have a major role in protecting against severe covid-19 disease through rapid viral clearance and early presentation of epitopes, and the presence of cross reactive T cells might enhance this protection. T cell memory is likely to provide ongoing protection against admission to hospital and death, and the development of a pan-coronovirus vaccine might future proof against new pandemic strains.

Omicron infection following vaccination enhances a broad spectrum of immune responses dependent on infection history

Pronounced immune escape by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant has resulted in many individuals possessing hybrid immunity, generated through a combination of vaccination and infection. Concerns have been raised that omicron breakthrough infections in triple-vaccinated individuals result in poor induction of omicron-specific immunity, and that prior SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with immune dampening. Taking a broad and comprehensive approach, we characterize mucosal and blood immunity to spike and non-spike antigens following BA.1/BA.2 infections in triple mRNA-vaccinated individuals, with and without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. We find that most individuals increase BA.1/BA.2/BA.5-specific neutralizing antibodies following infection, but confirm that the magnitude of increase and post-omicron titres are higher in the infection-naive. In contrast, significant increases in nasal responses, including neutralizing activity against BA.5 spike, are seen regardless of infection history. Spike-specific T cells increase only in infection-naive vaccinees; however, post-omicron T cell responses are significantly higher in the previously-infected, who display a maximally induced response with a highly cytotoxic CD8+ phenotype following their 3rd mRNA vaccine dose. Responses to non-spike antigens increase significantly regardless of prior infection status. These findings suggest that hybrid immunity induced by omicron breakthrough infections is characterized by significant immune enhancement that can help protect against future omicron variants.

Identification and function of a novel human memory-like NK cell population expressing CD160 in melioidosis

NK cells are endowed with immunological memory to a range of pathogens but the development of NK cell memory in bacterial infections remains elusive. Here, we establish an assay inducing memory-like NK cell response to Burkholderia pseudomallei, the causative agent of the severe bacterial disease called melioidosis, and explore NK cell memory in a melioidosis patient cohort. We show that NK cells require bacteria-primed monocytes to acquire memory-like properties, demonstrated by bacteria-specific responses, features that strongly associate with CD160 expression. Induction of this memory-like NK cell is partly dependent on CD160 and IL-12R. Importantly, CD160 expression identifies memory-like NK cells in a cohort of recovered melioidosis patients with heightened responses maintained at least 3 months post hospital admission and reduced numbers of this cell population independently correlate with recurrent melioidosis. These newly identified memory-like NK cells are a promising target for future vaccine design and for monitoring protection against infection.

SARS-CoV-2-specific immune responses and clinical outcomes after COVID-19 vaccination in patients with immune-suppressive disease

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) immune responses and infection outcomes were evaluated in 2,686 patients with varying immune-suppressive disease states after administration of two Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines. Overall, 255 of 2,204 (12%) patients failed to develop anti-spike antibodies, with an additional 600 of 2,204 (27%) patients generating low levels (<380 AU ml-1). Vaccine failure rates were highest in ANCA-associated vasculitis on rituximab (21/29, 72%), hemodialysis on immunosuppressive therapy (6/30, 20%) and solid organ transplant recipients (20/81, 25% and 141/458, 31%). SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses were detected in 513 of 580 (88%) patients, with lower T cell magnitude or proportion in hemodialysis, allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation and liver transplant recipients (versus healthy controls). Humoral responses against Omicron (BA.1) were reduced, although cross-reactive T cell responses were sustained in all participants for whom these data were available. BNT162b2 was associated with higher antibody but lower cellular responses compared to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination. We report 474 SARS-CoV-2 infection episodes, including 48 individuals with hospitalization or death from COVID-19. Decreased magnitude of both the serological and the T cell response was associated with severe COVID-19. Overall, we identified clinical phenotypes that may benefit from targeted COVID-19 therapeutic strategies.

Generation of SARS-CoV-2 escape mutations by monoclonal antibody therapy

COVID-19 patients at risk of severe disease may be treated with neutralising monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). To minimise virus escape from neutralisation these are administered as combinations e.g. casirivimab+imdevimab or, for antibodies targeting relatively conserved regions, individually e.g. sotrovimab. Unprecedented genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK has enabled a genome-first approach to detect emerging drug resistance in Delta and Omicron cases treated with casirivimab+imdevimab and sotrovimab respectively. Mutations occur within the antibody epitopes and for casirivimab+imdevimab multiple mutations are present on contiguous raw reads, simultaneously affecting both components. Using surface plasmon resonance and pseudoviral neutralisation assays we demonstrate these mutations reduce or completely abrogate antibody affinity and neutralising activity, suggesting they are driven by immune evasion. In addition, we show that some mutations also reduce the neutralising activity of vaccine-induced serum.

Evaluation of QuantiFERON SARS-CoV-2 interferon-γ release assay following SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination

T cells are important in preventing severe disease from SARS-CoV-2, but scalable and field-adaptable alternatives to expert T-cell assays are needed. The interferon-gamma release assay QuantiFERON platform was developed to detect T-cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 from whole blood with relatively basic equipment and flexibility of processing timelines. Forty-eight participants with different infection and vaccination backgrounds were recruited. Whole blood samples were analysed using the QuantiFERON SARS-CoV-2 assay in parallel with the well-established 'Protective Immunity from T Cells in Healthcare workers' (PITCH) ELISpot, which can evaluate spike-specific T-cell responses. The primary aims of this cross-sectional observational cohort study were to establish if the QuantiFERON SARS-Co-V-2 assay could discern differences between specified groups and to assess the sensitivity of the assay compared with the PITCH ELISpot. The QuantiFERON SARS-CoV-2 distinguished acutely infected individuals (12-21 days post positive PCR) from naïve individuals (P < 0.0001) with 100% sensitivity and specificity for SARS-CoV-2 T cells, whilst the PITCH ELISpot had reduced sensitivity (62.5%) for the acute infection group. Sensitivity with QuantiFERON for previous infection was 12.5% (172-444 days post positive test) and was inferior to the PITCH ELISpot (75%). Although the QuantiFERON assay could discern differences between unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals (55-166 days since second vaccination), the latter also had reduced sensitivity (44.4%) compared to the PITCH ELISpot (66.6%). The QuantiFERON SARS-CoV-2 assay showed potential as a T- cell evaluation tool soon after SARS-CoV-2 infection but has lower sensitivity for use in reliable evaluation of vaccination or more distant infection.

Dynamic mitochondrial transcription and translation in B cells control germinal center entry and lymphomagenesis

Germinal center (GC) B cells undergo proliferation at very high rates in a hypoxic microenvironment but the cellular processes driving this are incompletely understood. Here we show that the mitochondria of GC B cells are highly dynamic, with significantly upregulated transcription and translation rates associated with the activity of transcription factor A, mitochondrial (TFAM). TFAM, while also necessary for normal B cell development, is required for entry of activated GC precursor B cells into the germinal center reaction; deletion of Tfam significantly impairs GC formation, function and output. Loss of TFAM in B cells compromises the actin cytoskeleton and impairs cellular motility of GC B cells in response to chemokine signaling, leading to their spatial disorganization. We show that B cell lymphoma substantially increases mitochondrial translation and that deletion of Tfam in B cells is protective against the development of lymphoma in a c-Myc transgenic mouse model. Finally, we show that pharmacological inhibition of mitochondrial transcription and translation inhibits growth of GC-derived human lymphoma cells and induces similar defects in the actin cytoskeleton.

Accelerated waning of the humoral response to COVID-19 vaccines in obesity

Obesity is associated with an increased risk of severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection and mortality. COVID-19 vaccines reduce the risk of serious COVID-19 outcomes; however, their effectiveness in people with obesity is incompletely understood. We studied the relationship among body mass index (BMI), hospitalization and mortality due to COVID-19 among 3.6 million people in Scotland using the Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) surveillance platform. We found that vaccinated individuals with severe obesity (BMI > 40 kg/m2) were 76% more likely to experience hospitalization or death from COVID-19 (adjusted rate ratio of 1.76 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.60-1.94). We also conducted a prospective longitudinal study of a cohort of 28 individuals with severe obesity compared to 41 control individuals with normal BMI (BMI 18.5-24.9 kg/m2). We found that 55% of individuals with severe obesity had unquantifiable titers of neutralizing antibody against authentic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus compared to 12% of individuals with normal BMI (P = 0.0003) 6 months after their second vaccine dose. Furthermore, we observed that, for individuals with severe obesity, at any given anti-spike and anti-receptor-binding domain (RBD) antibody level, neutralizing capacity was lower than that of individuals with a normal BMI. Neutralizing capacity was restored by a third dose of vaccine but again declined more rapidly in people with severe obesity. We demonstrate that waning of COVID-19 vaccine-induced humoral immunity is accelerated in individuals with severe obesity. As obesity is associated with increased hospitalization and mortality from breakthrough infections, our findings have implications for vaccine prioritization policies.

Rapid escape of new SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants from BA.2-directed antibody responses

In November 2021, Omicron BA.1, containing a raft of new spike mutations, emerged and quickly spread globally. Intense selection pressure to escape the antibody response produced by vaccines or severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection then led to a rapid succession of Omicron sub-lineages with waves of BA.2 and then BA.4/5 infection. Recently, many variants have emerged such as BQ.1 and XBB, which carry up to 8 additional receptor-binding domain (RBD) amino acid substitutions compared with BA.2. We describe a panel of 25 potent monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) generated from vaccinees suffering BA.2 breakthrough infections. Epitope mapping shows potent mAb binding shifting to 3 clusters, 2 corresponding to early-pandemic binding hotspots. The RBD mutations in recent variants map close to these binding sites and knock out or severely knock down neutralization activity of all but 1 potent mAb. This recent mAb escape corresponds with large falls in neutralization titer of vaccine or BA.1, BA.2, or BA.4/5 immune serum.

Correction: A time-course comparative clinical and immune response evaluation study between the human pathogenic Orientia tsutsugamushi strains: Karp and Gilliam in a rhesus macaque (Macaca mulatta) model

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010611.].

A whole blood intracellular cytokine assay optimised for field site studies demonstrates polyfunctionality of CD4+ T cells in acute scrub typhus

BACKGROUND

Assessment of cellular immune responses by combining intracellular cytokine staining and immunophenotyping using flow cytometry enables the simultaneous measurement of T cell phenotype and effector function in response to pathogens and vaccines. The use of whole blood samples rather than peripheral blood mononuclear cells avoids both the need for immediate processing and loss of functional antigen presenting cells due to processing and cryopreservation. Using whole blood provides the possibility to stimulate peripheral T cells in situ, and is more suitable for studies where sample volume is limited, such as those involving children, the elderly and critically ill patients. The aim of this study was to provide a robust tool for the assessment of antigen-specific T cell responses in a field site setting with limited resources.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS

We optimised a flow cytometry-based whole blood intracellular cytokine assay (WBA) with respect to duration of antigen stimulation and intracellular protein retention time. We demonstrate the ability of the WBA to capture polyfunctional T cell responses in the context of acute scrub typhus infection, by measuring IFN-γ, TNF and IL-2 in CD4+ and CD8+ T cells in response to the causative agent O. tsutsugamushi (OT). Using an optimised OT antigen preparation, we demonstrate the presence of polyfunctional antigen-specific memory CD4+ T cells in the blood of scrub typhus patients.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

In conclusion, this flow cytometry-based WBA is well-suited for use at field study sites, and enables the assessment of polyfunctional T cell responses to infectious agents and vaccines through delineation of antigen-specific cytokine secretion at the single cell level.

A delicate balance between antibody evasion and ACE2 affinity for Omicron BA.2.75

Variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have caused successive global waves of infection. These variants, with multiple mutations in the spike protein, are thought to facilitate escape from natural and vaccine-induced immunity and often increase in affinity for ACE2. The latest variant to cause concern is BA.2.75, identified in India where it is now the dominant strain, with evidence of wider dissemination. BA.2.75 is derived from BA.2 and contains four additional mutations in the receptor-binding domain (RBD). Here, we perform an antigenic and biophysical characterization of BA.2.75, revealing an interesting balance between humoral evasion and ACE2 receptor affinity. ACE2 affinity for BA.2.75 is increased 9-fold compared with BA.2; there is also evidence of escape of BA.2.75 from immune serum, particularly that induced by Delta infection, which may explain the rapid spread in India, where where there is a high background of Delta infection. ACE2 affinity appears to be prioritized over greater escape.

A time-course comparative clinical and immune response evaluation study between the human pathogenic Orientia tsutsugamushi strains: Karp and Gilliam in a rhesus macaque (Macaca mulatta) model

BACKGROUND

Scrub typhus is a vector-borne febrile illness caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi transmitted by the bite of Trombiculid mites. O. tsutsugamushi has a high genetic diversity and is increasingly recognized to have a wider global distribution than previously assumed.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS

We evaluated the clinical outcomes and host immune responses of the two most relevant human pathogenic strains of O. tsutsugamushi; Karp (n = 4) and Gilliam (n = 4) in a time-course study over 80 days post infection (dpi) in a standardized scrub typhus non-human primate rhesus macaque model. We observed distinct features in clinical progression and immune response between the two strains; Gilliam-infected macaques developed more pronounced systemic infection characterized by an earlier onset of bacteremia, lymph node enlargement, eschar lesions and higher inflammatory markers during the acute phase of infection, when compared to the Karp strain. C-reactive protein (CRP) plasma levels, interferon gamma (IFN-γ, interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1ra), IL-15 serum concentrations, CRP/IL10- and IFN-γ/IL-10 ratios correlated positively with bacterial load in blood, implying activation of the innate immune response and preferential development of a T helper-type 1 immune response. The O. tsutsugamushi-specific immune memory responses in cells isolated from skin and lymph nodes at 80 dpi were more markedly elevated in the Gilliam-infected macaques than in the Karp-infected group. The comparative cytokine response dynamics of both strains revealed significant up-regulation of IFN-γ, tumor necrosis factor (TNF), IL-15, IL-6, IL-18, regulatory IL-1ra, IL-10, IL-8 and granulocyte-colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF). These data suggest that the clinical outcomes and host immune responses to scrub typhus could be associated with counter balancing effects of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokine-mediated responses. Currently, no data on characterized time-course comparisons of O. tsutsugamushi strains regarding measures of disease severity and immune response is available. Our study provides evidence for the strain-specificity of host responses in scrub typhus, which supports our understanding of processes at the initial inoculation site (eschar), systemic disease progression, protective and/or pathogenic host immune mechanisms and cellular immune memory function.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study characterised an improved intradermal rhesus macaque challenge model for scrub typhus, whereby the Gilliam strain infection associated with higher disease severity in the rhesus macaque model than the previous Karp strain infection. Difficulties associated with inoculum quantitation for obligate-intracellular bacteria were overcome by using functional inoculum titrations in outbred mice. The Gilliam-based rhesus macaque model provides improved endpoint measurements and contributes towards the identification of correlates of protection for future vaccine development.

Mitochondrial Ultrastructure and Activity Are Differentially Regulated by Glycolysis-, Krebs Cycle-, and Microbiota-Derived Metabolites in Monocytes

Several intermediate metabolites harbour cell-signalling properties, thus, it is likely that specific metabolites enable the communication between neighbouring cells, as well as between host cells with the microbiota, pathogens, and tumour cells. Mitochondria, a source of intermediate metabolites, participate in a wide array of biological processes beyond that of ATP production, such as intracellular calcium homeostasis, cell signalling, apoptosis, regulation of immune responses, and host cell-microbiota crosstalk. In this regard, mitochondria's plasticity allows them to adapt their bioenergetics status to intra- and extra-cellular cues, and the mechanisms driving such plasticity are currently a matter of intensive research. Here, we addressed whether mitochondrial ultrastructure and activity are differentially shaped when human monocytes are exposed to an exogenous source of lactate (derived from glycolysis), succinate, and fumarate (Krebs cycle metabolic intermediates), or butyrate and acetate (short-chain fatty acids produced by intestinal microbiota). It has previously been shown that fumarate induces mitochondrial fusion, increases the mitochondrial membrane potential (Δψ_m), and reshapes the mitochondrial cristae ultrastructure. Here, we provide evidence that, in contrast to fumarate, lactate, succinate, and butyrate induce mitochondrial fission, while acetate induces mitochondrial swelling. These traits, along with mitochondrial calcium influx kinetics and glycolytic vs. mitochondrial ATP-production rates, suggest that these metabolites differentially shape mitochondrial function, paving the way for the understanding of metabolite-induced metabolic reprogramming of monocytes and its possible use for immune-response intervention.

Comparison of two T-cell assays to evaluate T-cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 following vaccination in naïve and convalescent healthcare workers

T-cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 following infection and vaccination are less characterized than antibody responses, due to a more complex experimental pathway. We measured T-cell responses in 108 healthcare workers (HCWs) using the commercialized Oxford Immunotec T-SPOT Discovery SARS-CoV-2 assay service (OI T-SPOT) and the PITCH ELISpot protocol established for academic research settings. Both assays detected T-cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 spike, membrane, and nucleocapsid proteins. Responses were significantly lower when reported by OI T-SPOT than by PITCH ELISpot. Four weeks after two doses of either Pfizer/BioNTech BNT162b or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 AZD1222 vaccine, the responder rate was 63% for OI T-SPOT Panels 1 + 2 (peptides representing SARS-CoV-2 spike protein excluding regions present in seasonal coronaviruses), 69% for OI T-SPOT Panel 14 (peptides representing the entire SARS-CoV-2 spike), and 94% for the PITCH ELISpot total spike. The two OI T-SPOT panels correlated strongly with each other showing that either readout quantifies spike-specific T-cell responses, although the correlation between the OI T-SPOT panels and the PITCH ELISpot total spike was moderate. The standardization, relative scalability, and longer interval between blood acquisition and processing are advantages of the commercial OI T-SPOT assay. However, the OI T-SPOT assay measures T-cell responses at a significantly lower magnitude compared to the PITCH ELISpot assay, detecting T-cell responses in a lower proportion of vaccinees. This has implications for the reporting of low-level T-cell responses that may be observed in patient populations and for the assessment of T-cell durability after vaccination.

Antibody escape of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 from vaccine and BA.1 serum

The Omicron lineage of SARS-CoV-2, which was first described in November 2021, spread rapidly to become globally dominant and has split into a number of sublineages. BA.1 dominated the initial wave but has been replaced by BA.2 in many countries. Recent sequencing from South Africa's Gauteng region uncovered two new sublineages, BA.4 and BA.5, which are taking over locally, driving a new wave. BA.4 and BA.5 contain identical spike sequences, and although closely related to BA.2, they contain further mutations in the receptor-binding domain of their spikes. Here, we study the neutralization of BA.4/5 using a range of vaccine and naturally immune serum and panels of monoclonal antibodies. BA.4/5 shows reduced neutralization by the serum from individuals vaccinated with triple doses of AstraZeneca or Pfizer vaccine compared with BA.1 and BA.2. Furthermore, using the serum from BA.1 vaccine breakthrough infections, there are, likewise, significant reductions in the neutralization of BA.4/5, raising the possibility of repeat Omicron infections.

Potent cross-reactive antibodies following Omicron breakthrough in vaccinees

Highly transmissible Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 currently dominate globally. Here, we compare neutralization of Omicron BA.1, BA.1.1, and BA.2. BA.2 RBD has slightly higher ACE2 affinity than BA.1 and slightly reduced neutralization by vaccine serum, possibly associated with its increased transmissibility. Neutralization differences between sub-lineages for mAbs (including therapeutics) mostly arise from variation in residues bordering the ACE2 binding site; however, more distant mutations S371F (BA.2) and R346K (BA.1.1) markedly reduce neutralization by therapeutic antibody Vir-S309. In-depth structure-and-function analyses of 27 potent RBD-binding mAbs isolated from vaccinated volunteers following breakthrough Omicron-BA.1 infection reveals that they are focused in two main clusters within the RBD, with potent right-shoulder antibodies showing increased prevalence. Selection and somatic maturation have optimized antibody potency in less-mutated epitopes and recovered potency in highly mutated epitopes. All 27 mAbs potently neutralize early pandemic strains, and many show broad reactivity with variants of concern.

SARS-CoV-2-Specific T Cell Responses Are Not Associated with Protection against Reinfection in Hemodialysis Patients

Significance Statement

Patients on hemodialysis (HD) are vulnerable to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and mount poor neutralizing antibody responses after two-dose vaccination. Although serological responses have been associated with reduced rates of reinfection, the relationship between cellular immunogenicity and protection has not been established. We report, for the first time, high incidence of reinfection in patients on HD who are vaccine naive (25%), which identifies that T cell responses do not predict protection against reinfection. Instead, patients on HD who went on to become reinfected had mounted highly variable and sometimes robust proliferative T cell responses to a broad array of SARS-CoV-2 peptide pools during the primary infection. The understanding that SARS-CoV-2–specific T cell responses are not predictive of protection against future infection will be a critical issue when measuring clinical efficacy of vaccination in these vulnerable cohorts, particularly when facing rapidly emerging variants of concern.

Divergent trajectories of antiviral memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection

The trajectories of acquired immunity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection are not fully understood. We present a detailed longitudinal cohort study of UK healthcare workers prior to vaccination, presenting April-June 2020 with asymptomatic or symptomatic infection. Here we show a highly variable range of responses, some of which (T cell interferon-gamma ELISpot, N-specific antibody) wane over time, while others (spike-specific antibody, B cell memory ELISpot) are stable. We use integrative analysis and a machine-learning approach (SIMON - Sequential Iterative Modeling OverNight) to explore this heterogeneity. We identify a subgroup of participants with higher antibody responses and interferon-gamma ELISpot T cell responses, and a robust trajectory for longer term immunity associates with higher levels of neutralising antibodies against the infecting (Victoria) strain and also against variants B.1.1.7 (alpha) and B.1.351 (beta). These variable trajectories following early priming may define subsequent protection from severe disease from novel variants.

A blood atlas of COVID-19 defines hallmarks of disease severity and specificity

Treatment of severe COVID-19 is currently limited by clinical heterogeneity and incomplete description of specific immune biomarkers. We present here a comprehensive multi-omic blood atlas for patients with varying COVID-19 severity in an integrated comparison with influenza and sepsis patients versus healthy volunteers. We identify immune signatures and correlates of host response. Hallmarks of disease severity involved cells, their inflammatory mediators and networks, including progenitor cells and specific myeloid and lymphocyte subsets, features of the immune repertoire, acute phase response, metabolism, and coagulation. Persisting immune activation involving AP-1/p38MAPK was a specific feature of COVID-19. The plasma proteome enabled sub-phenotyping into patient clusters, predictive of severity and outcome. Systems-based integrative analyses including tensor and matrix decomposition of all modalities revealed feature groupings linked with severity and specificity compared to influenza and sepsis. Our approach and blood atlas will support future drug development, clinical trial design, and personalized medicine approaches for COVID-19.

Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in 2019: a systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a major threat to human health around the world. Previous publications have estimated the effect of AMR on incidence, deaths, hospital length of stay, and health-care costs for specific pathogen-drug combinations in select locations. To our knowledge, this study presents the most comprehensive estimates of AMR burden to date.

METHODS

We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with bacterial AMR for 23 pathogens and 88 pathogen-drug combinations in 204 countries and territories in 2019. We obtained data from systematic literature reviews, hospital systems, surveillance systems, and other sources, covering 471 million individual records or isolates and 7585 study-location-years. We used predictive statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all locations, including for locations with no data. Our approach can be divided into five broad components: number of deaths where infection played a role, proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antibiotic of interest, and the excess risk of death or duration of an infection associated with this resistance. Using these components, we estimated disease burden based on two counterfactuals: deaths attributable to AMR (based on an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by drug-susceptible infections), and deaths associated with AMR (based on an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by no infection). We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity. We present final estimates aggregated to the global and regional level.

FINDINGS

On the basis of our predictive statistical models, there were an estimated 4·95 million (3·62-6·57) deaths associated with bacterial AMR in 2019, including 1·27 million (95% UI 0·911-1·71) deaths attributable to bacterial AMR. At the regional level, we estimated the all-age death rate attributable to resistance to be highest in western sub-Saharan Africa, at 27·3 deaths per 100 000 (20·9-35·3), and lowest in Australasia, at 6·5 deaths (4·3-9·4) per 100 000. Lower respiratory infections accounted for more than 1·5 million deaths associated with resistance in 2019, making it the most burdensome infectious syndrome. The six leading pathogens for deaths associated with resistance (Escherichia coli, followed by Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa) were responsible for 929 000 (660 000-1 270 000) deaths attributable to AMR and 3·57 million (2·62-4·78) deaths associated with AMR in 2019. One pathogen-drug combination, meticillin-resistant S aureus, caused more than 100 000 deaths attributable to AMR in 2019, while six more each caused 50 000-100 000 deaths: multidrug-resistant excluding extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis, third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E coli, carbapenem-resistant A baumannii, fluoroquinolone-resistant E coli, carbapenem-resistant K pneumoniae, and third-generation cephalosporin-resistant K pneumoniae.

INTERPRETATION

To our knowledge, this study provides the first comprehensive assessment of the global burden of AMR, as well as an evaluation of the availability of data. AMR is a leading cause of death around the world, with the highest burdens in low-resource settings. Understanding the burden of AMR and the leading pathogen-drug combinations contributing to it is crucial to making informed and location-specific policy decisions, particularly about infection prevention and control programmes, access to essential antibiotics, and research and development of new vaccines and antibiotics. There are serious data gaps in many low-income settings, emphasising the need to expand microbiology laboratory capacity and data collection systems to improve our understanding of this important human health threat.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron-B.1.1.529 leads to widespread escape from neutralizing antibody responses

On 24th November 2021, the sequence of a new SARS-CoV-2 viral isolate Omicron-B.1.1.529 was announced, containing far more mutations in Spike (S) than previously reported variants. Neutralization titers of Omicron by sera from vaccinees and convalescent subjects infected with early pandemic Alpha, Beta, Gamma, or Delta are substantially reduced, or the sera failed to neutralize. Titers against Omicron are boosted by third vaccine doses and are high in both vaccinated individuals and those infected by Delta. Mutations in Omicron knock out or substantially reduce neutralization by most of the large panel of potent monoclonal antibodies and antibodies under commercial development. Omicron S has structural changes from earlier viruses and uses mutations that confer tight binding to ACE2 to unleash evolution driven by immune escape. This leads to a large number of mutations in the ACE2 binding site and rebalances receptor affinity to that of earlier pandemic viruses.

Omicron-B.1.1.529 leads to widespread escape from neutralizing antibody responses

On the 24 th November 2021 the sequence of a new SARS CoV-2 viral isolate spreading rapidly in Southern Africa was announced, containing far more mutations in Spike (S) than previously reported variants. Neutralization titres of Omicron by sera from vaccinees and convalescent subjects infected with early pandemic as well as Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta are substantially reduced or fail to neutralize. Titres against Omicron are boosted by third vaccine doses and are high in cases both vaccinated and infected by Delta. Mutations in Omicron knock out or substantially reduce neutralization by most of a large panel of potent monoclonal antibodies and antibodies under commercial development. Omicron S has structural changes from earlier viruses, combining mutations conferring tight binding to ACE2 to unleash evolution driven by immune escape, leading to a large number of mutations in the ACE2 binding site which rebalance receptor affinity to that of early pandemic viruses.

BpOmpW Antigen Stimulates the Necessary Protective T-Cell Responses Against Melioidosis

Melioidosis is a potentially fatal bacterial disease caused by Burkholderia pseudomallei and is estimated to cause 89,000 deaths per year in endemic areas of Southeast Asia and Northern Australia. People with diabetes mellitus are most at risk of melioidosis, with a 12-fold increased susceptibility for severe disease. Interferon gamma (IFN-γ) responses from CD4 and CD8 T cells, but also from natural killer (NK) and natural killer T (NKT) cells, are necessary to eliminate the pathogen. We previously reported that immunization with B. pseudomallei OmpW (BpOmpW antigen) protected mice from lethal B. pseudomallei challenge for up to 81 days. Elucidating the immune correlates of protection of the protective BpOmpW vaccine is an essential step prior to clinical trials. Thus, we immunized either non-insulin-resistant C57BL/6J mice or an insulin-resistant C57BL/6J mouse model of type 2 diabetes (T2D) with a single dose of BpOmpW. BpOmpW induced strong antibody responses, stimulated effector CD4+ and CD8+ T cells and CD4+ CD25+ Foxp3+ regulatory T cells, and produced higher IFN-γ responses in CD4+, CD8+, NK, and NKT cells in non-insulin-resistant mice. The T-cell responses of insulin-resistant mice to BpOmpW were comparable to those of non-insulin-resistant mice. In addition, as a precursor to its evaluation in human studies, humanized HLA-DR and HLA-DQ (human leukocyte antigen DR and DQ isotypes, respectively) transgenic mice elicited IFN-γ recall responses in an enzyme-linked immune absorbent spot (ELISpot)-based study. Moreover, human donor peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) exposed to BpOmpW for 7 days showed T-cell proliferation. Finally, plasma from melioidosis survivors with diabetes recognized our BpOmpW vaccine antigen. Overall, the range of approaches used strongly indicated that BpOmpW elicits the necessary immune responses to combat melioidosis and bring this vaccine closer to clinical trials.

Two doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination induce robust immune responses to emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern

The extent to which immune responses to natural infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and immunization with vaccines protect against variants of concern (VOC) is of increasing importance. Accordingly, here we analyse antibodies and T cells of a recently vaccinated, UK cohort, alongside those recovering from natural infection in early 2020. We show that neutralization of the VOC compared to a reference isolate of the original circulating lineage, B, is reduced: more profoundly against B.1.351 than for B.1.1.7, and in responses to infection or a single dose of vaccine than to a second dose of vaccine. Importantly, high magnitude T cell responses are generated after two vaccine doses, with the majority of the T cell response directed against epitopes that are conserved between the prototype isolate B and the VOC. Vaccination is required to generate high potency immune responses to protect against these and other emergent variants.

Reduced neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617 by vaccine and convalescent serum

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has undergone progressive change, with variants conferring advantage rapidly becoming dominant lineages, e.g., B.1.617. With apparent increased transmissibility, variant B.1.617.2 has contributed to the current wave of infection ravaging the Indian subcontinent and has been designated a variant of concern in the United Kingdom. Here we study the ability of monoclonal antibodies and convalescent and vaccine sera to neutralize B.1.617.1 and B.1.617.2, complement this with structural analyses of Fab/receptor binding domain (RBD) complexes, and map the antigenic space of current variants. Neutralization of both viruses is reduced compared with ancestral Wuhan-related strains, but there is no evidence of widespread antibody escape as seen with B.1.351. However, B.1.351 and P.1 sera showed markedly more reduction in neutralization of B.1.617.2, suggesting that individuals infected previously by these variants may be more susceptible to reinfection by B.1.617.2. This observation provides important new insights for immunization policy with future variant vaccines in non-immune populations.

Role of Burkholderia pseudomallei-Specific IgG2 in Adults with Acute Melioidosis, Thailand

Melioidosis is a life-threatening infectious disease caused by the gram-negative bacillus Burkholderia pseudomallei. An effective vaccine is needed, but data on protective immune responses in human melioidosis are lacking. We used ELISA and an antibody-dependent cellular phagocytosis assay to identify the major features of protective antibodies in patients with acute melioidosis in Thailand. We found that high levels of B. pseudomallei–specific IgG2 are associated with protection against death in a multivariable logistic regression analysis adjusting for age, diabetes, renal disease, and neutrophil count. Serum from melioidosis survivors enhanced bacteria uptake into human monocytes expressing FcγRIIa-H/R131, an intermediate-affinity IgG2-receptor, compared with serum from nonsurvivors. We did not find this enhancement when using monocytes carrying the low IgG2–affinity FcγRIIa-R131 allele. The findings indicate the importance of IgG2 in protection against death in human melioidosis, a crucial finding for antibody-based therapeutics and vaccine development.

Antibody evasion by the P.1 strain of SARS-CoV-2

Terminating the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic relies upon pan-global vaccination. Current vaccines elicit neutralizing antibody responses to the virus spike derived from early isolates. However, new strains have emerged with multiple mutations, including P.1 from Brazil, B.1.351 from South Africa, and B.1.1.7 from the UK (12, 10, and 9 changes in the spike, respectively). All have mutations in the ACE2 binding site, with P.1 and B.1.351 having a virtually identical triplet (E484K, K417N/T, and N501Y), which we show confer similar increased affinity for ACE2. We show that, surprisingly, P.1 is significantly less resistant to naturally acquired or vaccine-induced antibody responses than B.1.351, suggesting that changes outside the receptor-binding domain (RBD) impact neutralization. Monoclonal antibody (mAb) 222 neutralizes all three variants despite interacting with two of the ACE2-binding site mutations. We explain this through structural analysis and use the 222 light chain to largely restore neutralization potency to a major class of public antibodies.

Evidence of escape of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.351 from natural and vaccine-induced sera

The race to produce vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) began when the first sequence was published, and this forms the basis for vaccines currently deployed globally. Independent lineages of SARS-CoV-2 have recently been reported: UK, B.1.1.7; South Africa, B.1.351; and Brazil, P.1. These variants have multiple changes in the immunodominant spike protein that facilitates viral cell entry via the angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 (ACE2) receptor. Mutations in the receptor recognition site on the spike are of great concern for their potential for immune escape. Here, we describe a structure-function analysis of B.1.351 using a large cohort of convalescent and vaccinee serum samples. The receptor-binding domain mutations provide tighter ACE2 binding and widespread escape from monoclonal antibody neutralization largely driven by E484K, although K417N and N501Y act together against some important antibody classes. In a number of cases, it would appear that convalescent and some vaccine serum offers limited protection against this variant.

Reduced neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant by convalescent and vaccine sera

SARS-CoV-2 has caused over 2 million deaths in little over a year. Vaccines are being deployed at scale, aiming to generate responses against the virus spike. The scale of the pandemic and error-prone virus replication is leading to the appearance of mutant viruses and potentially escape from antibody responses. Variant B.1.1.7, now dominant in the UK, with increased transmission, harbors 9 amino acid changes in the spike, including N501Y in the ACE2 interacting surface. We examine the ability of B.1.1.7 to evade antibody responses elicited by natural SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination. We map the impact of N501Y by structure/function analysis of a large panel of well-characterized monoclonal antibodies. B.1.1.7 is harder to neutralize than parental virus, compromising neutralization by some members of a major class of public antibodies through light-chain contacts with residue 501. However, widespread escape from monoclonal antibodies or antibody responses generated by natural infection or vaccination was not observed.

Human Immune Responses to Melioidosis and Cross-Reactivity to Low-Virulence Burkholderia Species, Thailand1

Melioidosis is a neglected tropical disease with an estimated annual mortality rate of 89,000 in 45 countries across tropical regions. The causative agent is Burkholderia pseudomallei, a gram-negative soil-dwelling bacterium. In Thailand, B. pseudomallei can be found across multiple regions, along with the low-virulence B. thailandensis and the recently discovered B. thailandensis variant (BTCV), which expresses B. pseudomallei-like capsular polysaccharide. Comprehensive studies of human immune responses to B. thailandensis variants and cross-reactivity to B. pseudomallei are not complete. We evaluated human immune responses to B. pseudomallei, B. thailandensis, and BTCV in melioidosis patients and healthy persons in B. pseudomallei-endemic areas using a range of humoral and cellular immune assays. We found immune cross-reactivity to be strong for both humoral and cellular immunity among B. pseudomallei, B. thailandensis, and BTCV. Our findings suggest that environmental exposure to low-virulence strains may build cellular immunity to B. pseudomallei.

Hepcidin-Mediated Hypoferremia Disrupts Immune Responses to Vaccination and Infection

BACKGROUND

How specific nutrients influence adaptive immunity is of broad interest. Iron deficiency is the most common micronutrient deficiency worldwide and imparts a significant burden of global disease; however, its effects on immunity remain unclear.

METHODS

We used a hepcidin mimetic and several genetic models to examine the effect of low iron availability on T cells in vitro and on immune responses to vaccines and viral infection in mice. We examined humoral immunity in human patients with raised hepcidin and low serum iron caused by mutant TMPRSS6. We tested the effect of iron supplementation on vaccination-induced humoral immunity in piglets, a natural model of iron deficiency.

FINDINGS

We show that low serum iron (hypoferremia), caused by increased hepcidin, severely impairs effector and memory responses to immunizations. The intensified metabolism of activated lymphocytes requires the support of enhanced iron acquisition, which is facilitated by IRP1/2 and TFRC. Accordingly, providing extra iron improved the response to vaccination in hypoferremic mice and piglets, while conversely, hypoferremic humans with chronically increased hepcidin have reduced concentrations of antibodies specific for certain pathogens. Imposing hypoferremia blunted the T cell, B cell, and neutralizing antibody responses to influenza virus infection in mice, allowing the virus to persist and exacerbating lung inflammation and morbidity.

CONCLUSIONS

Hypoferremia, a well-conserved physiological innate response to infection, can counteract the development of adaptive immunity. This nutrient trade-off is relevant for understanding and improving immune responses to infections and vaccines in the globally common contexts of iron deficiency and inflammatory disorders.

FUNDING

Medical Research Council, UK.

Performance characteristics of five immunoassays for SARS-CoV-2: a head-to-head benchmark comparison

BACKGROUND

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused a global pandemic in 2020. Testing is crucial for mitigating public health and economic effects. Serology is considered key to population-level surveillance and potentially individual-level risk assessment. However, immunoassay performance has not been compared on large, identical sample sets. We aimed to investigate the performance of four high-throughput commercial SARS-CoV-2 antibody immunoassays and a novel 384-well ELISA.

METHODS

We did a head-to-head assessment of SARS-CoV-2 IgG assay (Abbott, Chicago, IL, USA), LIAISON SARS-CoV-2 S1/S2 IgG assay (DiaSorin, Saluggia, Italy), Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 assay (Roche, Basel, Switzerland), SARS-CoV-2 Total assay (Siemens, Munich, Germany), and a novel 384-well ELISA (the Oxford immunoassay). We derived sensitivity and specificity from 976 pre-pandemic blood samples (collected between Sept 4, 2014, and Oct 4, 2016) and 536 blood samples from patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, collected at least 20 days post symptom onset (collected between Feb 1, 2020, and May 31, 2020). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess assay thresholds.

FINDINGS

At the manufacturers' thresholds, for the Abbott assay sensitivity was 92·7% (95% CI 90·2-94·8) and specificity was 99·9% (99·4-100%); for the DiaSorin assay sensitivity was 96·2% (94·2-97·7) and specificity was 98·9% (98·0-99·4); for the Oxford immunoassay sensitivity was 99·1% (97·8-99·7) and specificity was 99·0% (98·1-99·5); for the Roche assay sensitivity was 97·2% (95·4-98·4) and specificity was 99·8% (99·3-100); and for the Siemens assay sensitivity was 98·1% (96·6-99·1) and specificity was 99·9% (99·4-100%). All assays achieved a sensitivity of at least 98% with thresholds optimised to achieve a specificity of at least 98% on samples taken 30 days or more post symptom onset.

INTERPRETATION

Four commercial, widely available assays and a scalable 384-well ELISA can be used for SARS-CoV-2 serological testing to achieve sensitivity and specificity of at least 98%. The Siemens assay and Oxford immunoassay achieved these metrics without further optimisation. This benchmark study in immunoassay assessment should enable refinements of testing strategies and the best use of serological testing resource to benefit individuals and population health.

FUNDING

Public Health England and UK National Institute for Health Research.

The challenges of estimating the human global burden of disease of antimicrobial resistant bacteria

Estimating the contribution of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) to global mortality and healthcare costs enables evaluation of interventions, informs policy decisions on resource allocation, and drives research priorities. However assembling the high quality, patient-level data required for global estimates is challenging. Capacity for accurate microbiology culture and antimicrobial susceptibility testing is woefully neglected in low and middle-income countries, and further surveillance and research on community antimicrobial usage, bias in blood culture sampling, and the contribution of co-morbidities such as diabetes is essential. International collaboration between governments, policy makers, academics, microbiologists, front-line clinicians, veterinarians, the food and agriculture industry and the public is critical to understand and tackle AMR.

Serum From Melioidosis Survivors Diminished Intracellular Burkholderia pseudomallei Growth in Macrophages: A Brief Research Report

Melioidosis is a neglected tropical disease with high mortality rate. It is caused by the Gram-negative, CDC category B select agent Burkholderia pseudomallei (B. ps) that is intrinsically resistant to first-line antibiotics. An antibody-based vaccine is likely to be the most effective control measure. Previous studies have demonstrated significant mechanistic roles of antibodies in protection against death in animal models, but data from human melioidosis is scarce. Herein, we used in-vitro antibody-dependent cellular phagocytosis and growth inhibition assays to assess the mechanism of protective antibodies in patients with acute melioidosis. We found that serum from patients who survived the disease enable more live B. ps to be engulfed by THP-1 derived macrophages (median 1.7 × 10³ CFU/ml, IQR 1.1 × 10³-2.5 × 10³ CFU/ml) than serum from patients who did not survive (median 1.2 × 10³ CFU/ml, IQR 0.7 × 10³-1.8 × 10³, p = 0.02). In addition, the intracellular growth rate of B. ps pre-opsonized with serum from survivors (median 7.89, IQR 5.58–10.85) was diminished when compared with those with serum from non-survivors (median 10.88, IQR 5.42–14.88, p = 0.04). However, the difference of intracellular bacterial growth rate failed to reach statistical significance when using purified IgG antibodies (p = 0.09). These results provide new insights into a mechanistic role of serum in protection against death in human melioidosis for antibody-based vaccine development.

Melioidosis DS rapid test: A standardized serological dipstick assay with increased sensitivity and reliability due to multiplex detection

Background

Melioidosis, caused by Burkholderia pseudomallei, is a severe infectious disease with high mortality rates, but is under-recognized worldwide. In endemic areas, there is a great need for simple, low-cost and rapid diagnostic tools. In a previous study we showed, that a protein multiplex array with 20 B. pseudomallei-specific antigens detects antibodies in melioidosis patients with high sensitivity and specificity. In a subsequent study the high potential of anti-B. pseudomallei antibody detection was confirmed using a rapid Hcp1 single protein-based assay. Our protein array also showed that the antibody profile varies between patients, possibly due to a combination of host factors but also antigen variations in the infecting B. pseudomallei strains. The aim of this study was to develop a rapid test, combining Hcp1 and the best performing antigens BPSL2096, BPSL2697 and BPSS0477 from our previous study, to take advantage of simultaneous antibody detection.

Methods and principal findings

The 4-plex dipstick was validated with sera from 75 patients on admission plus control groups, achieving 92% sensitivity and 97–100% specificity. We then re-evaluated melioidosis sera with the 4-plex assay that were previously misclassified by the monoplex Hcp1 rapid test. 12 out of 55 (21.8%) false-negative samples were positive in our new dipstick assay. Among those, 4 sera (7.3%) were Hcp1 positive, whereas 8 (14.5%) sera remained Hcp1 negative but gave a positive reaction with our additional antigens.

Conclusions

Our dipstick rapid test represents an inexpensive, standardized and simple diagnostic tool with an improved serodiagnostic performance due to multiplex detection. Each additional band on the test strip makes a false-positive result more unlikely, contributing to its reliability. Future prospective studies will seek to validate the gain in sensitivity and specificity of our multiplex rapid test approach in different melioidosis patient cohorts.

The Gram-negative environmental pathogen Burkholderia pseudomallei, causes the severe disease melioidosis. It is highly endemic in southeast Asia and northern Australia, but recent studies suggest that it is also present in many other parts of the world where it is severely underreported. The latter results from the extremely variable and non-specific clinical manifestations of the disease, lack of clinical recognition, and the global scarcity of good quality laboratories to allow diagnosis from microbiological culture. This is even more unfortunate, as early diagnosis of the disease is indispensable for an effective therapy, since B. pseudomallei is intrinsically resistant to many antibiotics used for empirical treatment in endemic areas. Therefore, the development of new, standardized and sensitive tools is of high importance for both diagnostics and epidemiology. We focused on the development of a dipstick assay, which is based on the detection of serum antibodies against four B. pseudomallei specific protein antigens. Here we present a cost effective, simple and rapid melioidosis assay with improved sensitivity that does not depend on sophisticated laboratory equipment and therefore addresses most of the before mentioned obstacles and is easy to manufacture in large scales.

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.

METHODS

We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.

FINDINGS

The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.

INTERPRETATION

By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.