Reproductive health, population growth, economic development and environmental change

World population will increase by 1000 million, or by 20%, within 10 years. Ninety-five per cent of this increase will occur in the South, in areas that are already economically, environmentally and politically fragile. Morbidity and mortality associated with reproduction will be greater in the current decade than in any period in human history. Annually, 40-60 million pregnancies will be terminated and 5-10 million children will die within one year of birth. AIDS-related infections, e.g. tuberculosis, will undermine health care in Africa (and elsewhere) and in places AIDS-related deaths will decimate the work-force. The growth in population and associated morbidity will inhibit global economic development and spawn new problems. The key issues are migration, the spread of disease, the supply of water and the degradation of land, and fiscal policies with respect to family planning, pharmaceuticals and Third-World debt. Full education, particularly of women, and more effective family planning in the South have the power to unlock the problem. Failure will see the developed countries, with their 800 million population, swamped by the health, economic and environmental problems of the South, with its projected population of 5400 million people for the year 2000.

Backcalculation of flexible linear models of the human immunodeficiency virus infection curve

The authors present a regression approach to the backcalculation of flexible linear models of the HIV infection curve. They note that "because expected AIDS incidence can be expressed as a linear function of unknown parameters, regression methods may be used to obtain parameter and covariance estimates for a variety of interesting quantities, such as the expected number of people infected in previous time intervals and the projected AIDS incidence in future time intervals. We exploit these ideas to show that estimates based on maximum likelihood are, for practical purposes, equivalent to approximate estimates based on quasi-likelihood and on Poisson regression. These algorithms are readily implemented on a personal computer." These concepts are illustrated by projecting AIDS incidence in the United States up to 1993.

Prevention at school level. UNESCO and WHO: six pilot projects

UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization) and the World Health Organization (WHO) are jointly undertaking six pilot projects in Asia and the Pacific, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean to develop innovative approaches for AIDS education in schools, with the long-term objective of integrating successful educational strategies into school curricula. The projects are being carried out through workshops for the production of educative materials and teacher training workshops. The overall goal is to help young people of school age behave responsibly, giving rightful importance to self-esteem and mutual respect. In line with the program's objective of focusing on technical leadership and support to help countries plan and implement effective AIDS control, plans are underway to organize regional training courses for decision makers on AIDS education in school.