Union instability and fertility in three Caribbean societies

This paper examines empirically the relationship between sexual union instability and fertility in three English-speaking Caribbean societies, Guyana, Jamaica and Trinidad/Tobago, using data collected in the World Fertility Survey Programme. An index of cumulative fertility, the duration ratio, that controls for the biological effects of age and age at first union is used as the dependent variable in a multiple regression analysis. The statistical findings are in general agreement with previous research that has found a positive association between fertility and the number of sexual unions in these societies. However, the estimated fertility effect of belonging to different union types (i.e. married, common-law and visiting) is not uniform across the three societies.

Infant and child mortality in Bangladesh

Socioeconomic differences and trends in infant and child mortality in Bangladesh are examined using data from the 1975 World Fertility Survey and 1979 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey. There is evidence of some recent decline in infant and child mortality. Logit analysis of infant and child mortality indicates that sociodemographic variables such as mother's education, recent period, or higher birth orders, had significant independent effects upon the reduction of infant and child mortality. Other variables such as fetal loss, father's education, or land ownership had no consistent significant effect of upon infant and child mortality. On the other hand, the effect of urban residence on infant and child mortality was positive after the control of the sociodemographic variables. Mere concentration on the supply of modern medical services may bring limited returns unless they are reinforced by appropriate social changes, in particular those affecting the socioeconomic status of women.

Community-level determinants of infant mortality in Mexico

Data from pregnancy histories collected by the 1976–77 Mexican Fertility Survey show wide variations in infant mortality among a sample of 125 communities. There are also large infant mortality differentials by population size, economic status, access variables, utilities, medical facilities and schools. These community-level factors, which have been little used in previous studies, are highly correlated and do not appear to affect infant survival independently of population size. As such, community size serves as a summary measure of a locality's overall level of development and comparative risk of early death for its young inhabitants.

Maternal factors and infant and child mortality in Bangladesh

Multivariate analysis of the effects of maternal age at birth, birth order and the preceding birth interval on mortality risks in early childhood, using data from the Bangladesh Fertility Survey, 1975–76, confirms that the length of the preceding birth interval is the most influential single factor. But the lower mortality risks among infants and children of educated mothers are due neither to the age at which childbearing was initiated nor to the spacing between births.

[The stability of long-term birth expectations, 1982-1985]

Changes in expected number of births in the Netherlands are examined using data from the 1982 Netherlands Fertility Survey and a follow-up survey conducted in 1985. "On the 'yes', 'no', 'don't know' level, the answers of four out of every five respondents were identical in 1982 and 1985. On the level of an exact number of additional children this was three out of five. The expectation not to have any (more) children turned out to be stable for 87% of the respondents; the expectation to have one or more (additional) children for 84%. On an aggregate level there were minimal changes in the average expected number of additional children." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Covariates of age at first birth in Guyana: a hazards model analysis

Analysis of data from the Guyana Fertility Survey on the trends and covariates of age at first birth among various birth cohorts of women ever in union indicates that an early entry into union is associated with young age at first birth and higher number of children born. Multivariate analysis showed that women with highér education, urban residence, and entry into union at age 20 or older among younger cohorts experienced lower risks for first birth compared to others, and that young women are delaying their first birth for longer durations than older women. Work status of women before first birth and the starting age of union seem to be the two major contributory factors for age at first birth. Noticeably, the role of education has changed and is now more significant among younger cohorts than among older ones for first birth timing.

Contraceptive use and fertility in Honduras, 1981-84

This paper presents data on contraceptive use and fertility in Honduras obtained from a household survey conducted in 1984, and compares these data with similar information obtained from surveys carried out in 1981 and 1983. About half of the increase that has taken place in contraceptive use in Honduras is accounted for by sterilization. In 1981, 27 percent of women in union aged 15-49 years were practicing contraception; in 1984, the percentage of those 15-44 was 35 percent. The increase in urban areas was smaller (from 47 percent to 51 percent) than in rural areas (from 16 percent to 24 percent). Also, fertility remained almost unchanged in urban areas while declining in rural areas. Information from questions on place of purchase, price, and brand of contraceptive (for orals) was used to determine source of supply. The use of multiple questions to determine source results in a higher percentage of contraceptive use attributed to the Honduran Family Planning Association as compared with answers to a single question. The duration of breastfeeding in Honduras has increased, with the greatest changes occurring among women in urban areas and women with the highest levels of education. Efforts have been made to promote breastfeeding in urban areas and these results suggest that the efforts have been successful.

Preferences for sex of children: a multivariate analysis

This paper, based on 1973–74 Growth of Alberta Family Study data, examines the sex preference for children among women in Edmonton. Discriminant functions are used to examine whether the two groups of women—those who prefer to have sons and those who prefer to have daughters—differ in selected characteristics such as age, birth place, residence in youth, education, religion, number and sex of siblings, traditional female roles, and attitude towards sex predetermination.

The results show some preference for sons, although generally women prefer to have children of both sexes. The variables birth place, number of female siblings of wife, and education of husband are found to discriminate best among the two groups. In general, the results suggest that sex preference among women is more heavily determined by their country of birth and number of male and female siblings. There is some evidence to suggest that preference for sex of children varies between adolescents and older women. The findings suggest that women generally do not favour the idea of sex predetermination.

Birth weight and the effects of birth spacing and breastfeeding on infant mortality

Analyses previously reported, based on data from the World Fertility Survey (WFS), are replicated here with data from the Malaysian Family Life Survey. Comparison of results, when data limitations inherent in the World Fertility Surveys are reproduced or relaxed, suggests that these limitations cause little distortion, and thus bolsters confidence in the validity of results based on WFS data in which these limitations are inescapable. Generalizations based on the present investigation and on the body of previous work that it tends to validate are presented. Most significantly, these include the greater importance of both breastfeeding and birth spacing under generally unfavorable conditions, the variability of durations to which some benefit of continued breastfeeding persists, and the observation that the great majority of birth-spacing effects operate through some mechanism other than the association of breastfeeding with birth interval lengths.

Determinants of fertility in Nepal: applications of an aggregate model

Bongaarts' aggregate model of the proximate determinants of fertility is applied to data from the 1976 National Fertility Survey in Nepal. Breast-feeding is shown to be the most important limiting factor, resulting in a reduction of about six children per woman. Decline in the duration of breast-feeding by one-fourth would increase fertility by one additional child per woman. The temporary separation of spouses due to migration is conjectured to be the second most important fertility inhibiting factor, not explicitly accounted for in the standard model. Results are presented for the three major ecological regions, urban-rural residence and educational attainment of the women.

Estimates of fertility and infant and child mortality for Lae urban area of Papua New Guinea: a comparative analysis

Data collected on fertility, mortality and family planning in two surveys in Papua New Guinea are presented. The first survey was conducted in rural and urban areas between November 1979 and March 1980 in eight provinces of Papua New Guinea, and the second between late June and early July 1981 in the Lae urban area. The unadjusted total fertility rates suggest that fertility is lower in the Lae urban area than in the rural and provincial urban areas. However, the adjusted rates indicate that fertility is higher in the provincial urban areas than in the rural and Lae urban areas. The results also confirm a trend towards lower infant and child mortality over the past 15 years, as well as the existence of moderate differentials between rural, provincial urban and the Lae urban areas.

Infant mortality trends and differentials in Nepal

Infant mortality trends and differentials are estimated from the 1981 Nepal Contraceptive Prevalence Survey (NCPS) and compared with similar estimates from the 1976 Nepal Fertility Survey (NFS) and the 1981 Census of Nepal. The analysis indicates that infant mortality rates derived directly from the NFS maternity histories are the most accurate. Infant mortality rates derived directly from the NCPS maternity histories are severely underestimated and yield a strongly biased trend that is the reverse of the true downward trend. Indirect estimates of infant mortality trends derived from child survivorship data do not result in a consistent pattern. Infant mortality differentials, when expressed in relative rather than absolute terms, are generally consistent with findings from earlier studies. Possible reasons for data quality differences among the three data sources are discussed.

Cessation of childbearing in the absence of contraception in Sri Lanka

In data from the Sri Lanka Fertility Survey, 1975, the cessation of childbearing is examined among women who have never used contraception. They tend to cease childbearing relatively early, and therefore are infertile for longer periods during their marriages. It is probably age of the first child that influences decisions on future fertility.

Breast-feeding in Bangladesh

In data from the Bangladesh Fertility Survey on 4998 live births, the mean duration of breast-feeding in Bangladesh was 27·3 months. Duration of breast-feeding was positively related with the age of women. Female children were breast-fed for periods about 5 months shorter than for male children. Children born to urban mothers of all age groups were breast-fed for shorter durations than children born to rural mothers of all age groups. The duration of breast-feeding decreased with the increase of education of mother.

Effect of birth spacing on infant and child mortality in rural Nepal

This examination of the effect of birth spacing on infant and child mortality in rural Nepal is based on data from the Nepal Fertility Survey 1976 carried out by the Nepal Family Planning and Maternal Child Health Project in collaboration with the World Fertility Survey. The study confirms that the higher risk of infant death to first-born children is mainly due to the higher proportions of younger women having first births, rather than due to their being first order births per se. The effect of maternal age on infant and child mortality is largely associated with birth interval. Previous birth interval, therefore, stands out as the most important factor affecting infant mortality; the next most important factor is the survival of the preceding child.

Effect of infant mortality on subsequent fertility in Pakistan and Sri Lanka

The relation between infant mortality and fertility is studied using data from the 1975 fertility surveys in Pakistan and Sri Lanka. It is found that the unadjusted data support child replacement, but that this is much less the case once controls are introduced for demographic and socioeconomic factors. Replacement is slightly more pronounced when there are fewer surviving male children.

Contraceptive use and the need for family planning in Puerto Rico

In 1982, 69 percent of Puerto Rican women in union were practicing contraception. Forty-five percent relied on contraceptive sterilization (40 percent, female, and five percent, male), eight percent were using the pill, four percent each, the IUD and the condom, five percent relied on rhythm, and three percent were using other methods. Thus, sterilization is the dominant form of fertility regulation in Puerto Rico, and there is relatively little use of reversible methods for childspacing. Reliance on female sterilization peaks among women in union in the age-group 35-44 (54 percent), whereas pill use is highest among those aged 15-24 (approximately 23 percent). Overall, eight percent of all women aged 15-49 are at risk of unintended pregnancy because they are fecund, sexually active, not pregnant or seeking pregnancy and not using any kind of contraceptive method. However, among women in union, this risk ranges from nine percent among those aged 30-39 to 22 percent among women aged 15-19. Reliance on sterilization rather than reversible methods of contraception is strongly influenced by socio-demographic variables. Women with less than a high school education, the wives of blue-collar workers, women living outside of the major cities and those born in Puerto Rico depend upon sterilization more than do women with a college education, the wives of white-collar employees, women living in cities and those born outside of the country. These findings point to the need for improved availability of reversible family planning services, especially for young women, and those whose childbearing is incomplete.

Fertility in Pakistan during the 1970s

A survey conducted in 1975, as part of the World Fertility Survey programme, provided evidence that fertility began to decline in Pakistan during the early 1970s. Because of the low level of contraceptive use recorded in that survey, the fertility decline was attributed to delayed marriage. However, a second and similar survey conducted approximately 5 years later showed almost exactly the same pattern of very recent decline, and indeed a reduction in contraceptive use. The two surveys disagreed for the period of overlap. It is concluded that there were essentially no changes in fertility during the decade, and that it remained at pre-1970 levels.

Evaluation of contraceptive history data in the Republic of Korea

The consistency of retrospective and current status data on contraceptive use from a series of national fertility surveys carried out during the 1970s in Korea is investigated. Aggregate consistency is examined among random samples from the same cohort or cohorts of women interviewed in each survey. The results indicate that estimates of trends in contraceptive use from a retrospective history in one survey, or from cross-sectional estimates in a series of surveys, can each yield misleading findings. Data from the 1974 Korean National Fertility Survey (KNFS) appear to be more reliable than those from other surveys, possibly because an interval-by-interval contraceptive history was used, explicit definitions of contraceptive methods were given prior to taking the contraceptive history, and the KNFS involved longer interviewer training and, perhaps, less time pressure during interviews.